--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2025-06-12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC120616_C_KWBC_20250612061650_25559334-287-TWDAT.txt ****0000005489**** AXNT20 KNHC 120616 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Jun 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27W from near the western Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is seen near this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 17N southward to northern Suriname, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are seen over the northern Suriname. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from the Dominican Republic southward to northwestern Colombia. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the Dominican Republic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward to 06N31W. An ITCZ continues westward from 06N31W to north of French Guiana near 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 06N to 09N between 17W and 27W. Widely scattered moderate convection is evident near and up to 80 nm north of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms at the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica, Puerto Rico and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Convergent southerly winds are triggering widely scattered moderate convection over the southeastern basin, including the Florida Straits. Otherwise, a modest surface ridge persists over the Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are present at the eastern Gulf. Fresh with locally strong ENE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain across the Gulf through the next several days. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon and evening, north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Winds are expected to briefly reach strong at times. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1027 mb Bermuda High continues to support trade winds over much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are producing isolated strong thunderstorms in the lee of Cuba and near Jamaica. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident at the south- central basin. Moderate to fresh easterlies and seas of 4 to 7 ft are found across the north-central and eastern basin, and Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas over most of the central and west-central basin through early next week. Winds will pulse and reach fresh to strong near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected Mon and Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are expected through early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical North Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate to rough seas with these winds will subside late Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 mb subtropical ridge centered a few hundred nm east of Bermuda near 32N58.5W dominates the entire tropical Atlantic. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Wave sections for convection in the Atlantic Basin. The high and its related subtropical ridge is dominating the Atlantic north of 20N. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are present between 35W and 55W, while moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident west of 55W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N and west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high and related subtropical ridge will be the main feature controlling the wind regime throughout the region through Mon night. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N during each late afternoon and at night through early next week. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC120930_C_KWBC_20250612093039_12124482-3734-TWDAT.txt ****0000004989**** AXNT20 KNHC 120930 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jun 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic just west of the Cape Verde Islands, extending from 05N to 17N with axis near 28W, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is seen near this wave. A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles, extending from 06N to 17N with axis near 57W, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from 06N to 16N between 50W and 60W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean, south of Hispaniola, with axis near 72W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the Dominican Republic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W, then curves southwestward to 06N30W. The ITCZ continues westward from 06N30W to 05N41W to 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 11N between 08W and 31W. Scattered moderate convection is evident elsewhere from 02N to 10N between 31W and 50W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous moderate to strong convection and tstms over the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, southern Nicaragua and NW Colombia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends SW into the Gulf and continues to provide moderate to fresh ESE winds over the western half of the basin and gentle to moderate SE winds elsewhere E of 90W. Over the Bay of Campeche, a surface trough is generating heavy showers and tstms. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to locally strong winds in this area of convection. Wave heights are 3 to 6 ft west of 90W while altimeter data show 1 to 3 ft seas across the eastern basin. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain across the Gulf through the next several days. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected each afternoon and evening, north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Winds are expected to briefly reach strong speeds at times. Moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Bermuda High continues to support fresh trade winds over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh easterlies and seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere across the SW and NW basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas over most of the central and west-central basin through early next week. Winds will pulse and reach fresh to strong near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected Mon and Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are expected through early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical North Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate to rough seas with these winds will subside late Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda High of 1027 mb and its associated ridge dominates the entire subtropical Atlantic waters and extends into the tropics to about 14N. Mostly gentle to moderate NE to E winds are across the subtropical waters between 30W and 65W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are elsewhere W of 65W, except for moderate to fresh in the Great Bahama Bank, approaches of the Windward Passage and N of Hispaniola. Seas are moderate across these waters. Between the NW coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE and seas are 5 to 8 ft. Lastly, fresh trades between 45W and the Lesser Antilles support 7 to 8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high and related subtropical ridge will be the main feature controlling the wind regime throughout the region through Mon night. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N during each late afternoon and at night through early next week. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC121649_C_KWBC_20250612164955_25559334-336-TWDAT.txt ****0000005381**** AXNT20 KNHC 121649 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jun 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the southern portion of the wave axis. The northern portion is under a plume of Saharan dust suppressing any thunderstorm activity. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N and between 52W and 64W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 04N38W. The ITCZ extends from 04N38W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 12N and east of 41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An outflow boundary is moving across the offshore waters of SE and central Texas. This is associated with strong thunderstorms over the lone star state. Mariners in the area should be aware of gusty winds, frequent lightning and suddenly higher seas. Low-level convergence is supporting a few showers in the western Gulf waters, especially off northern Veracruz and southern Tamaulipas. The weak pressure gradient results in moderate to locally fresh southerly winds west of 90W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft (1-2 m). Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are present. For the forecast, Atlantic ridging will extend westward across the Gulf through the next several days. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Winds are expected to briefly reach strong speeds at times. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to southern Nicaragua and it is the source for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean Sea. A few showers are also noted in the SE Caribbean, while generally drier conditions are present elsewhere. A strong subtropical ridge centered north of the islands forces fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds across much of the Caribbean, especially south of 19N. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 5-9 (1.5-3 m), with the highest seas occurring near 14N75W. Buoy 42058 near 14N75W is currently reporting 9 ft (3 m). Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the basin and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas over most of the central and west-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected Mon and Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are expected through early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical N Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate to rough seas with these winds will subside through this evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An extensive 1026 mb subtropical ridge centered east of Bermuda dominates the entire tropical Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds south of 23N and between 65W and 75W, along with moderate seas. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong easterly winds south of 20N and west of 50W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft (2-3 m). Fresh to locally strong northerly winds and moderate seas are evident off the coast of Africa, north of 19N. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas found north of the monsoon trough to 27N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will be the main feature controlling the wind regime throughout the region through Mon night. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N during each late afternoon and at night through early next week. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC122325_C_KWBC_20250612232544_12124482-3786-TWDAT.txt ****0000006542**** AXNT20 KNHC 122325 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Jun 13 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near the southern portion of the wave axis. The northern portion, north of 09N, is under a plume of Saharan dust suppressing any thunderstorm activity. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N and between 56W and 64W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are near the trough axis over the Caribbean, while scattered to numerous convection is about the axis over much of northwestern Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 03.5N39W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N39W to the coast of Brazil at 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 10N and between 15W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An outflow boundary spawned by strong convection over eastern Texas has continued to move east and southeastward this afternoon, and currently reach from central Louisiana across the Atchafalaya Basin to Corpus Christi, Texas. Afternoon buoy observations showed wind gusts to near 40 kt as this boundary moved across the Texas coastal waters. Strong convection continues to propagate southward along the central Texas coast. Mariners in the area should be alert for strong gusty winds, frequent lightning and suddenly higher seas. Scattered showers prevail along the remainder of the boundary further offshore. Only isolated showers are seen across the rest of the Gulf this evening. The Bermuda High extends a broad ridge westward along 30N and across the northern Gulf states. This is producing moderate to locally fresh return flow across the western Gulf and light to gentle return flow across the eastern half. The weak pressure gradient results in moderate to locally fresh southerly winds west of 90W. Seas are 3-6 ft across the W half of the basin, except to 7 ft in the central Texas waters, and 3 ft or less across the E half. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge westward across the Gulf through the next several days. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Winds there are expected to briefly reach strong speeds at times. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and south-central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia across northern Costa Rica and is the source for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean Sea south of 10N. Widely scattered showers and squalls are seen extending from the waters just SW of Jamaica along80W E-SE to north of the A-B-C Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are entering the SE portion of the basin, ahead of an approaching tropical wave. A strong subtropical ridge centered north of the Lesser Antilles along about 32N is forcing fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds across much of the Caribbean, especially south of 18N. This was confirmed by midday scatterometer satellite data. Seas are 6 to 10 ft across the core of the basin, with the highest seas occurring near 14N75W, where NDBC Buoy 42058 is currently reporting 10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure N of the basin and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas over most of the central and west-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds across the Gulf of Honduras during the evening and overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds expected to begin on Mon, with passage of a tropical wave. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate winds are expected through early next week. Mostly fresh trades will remain over the Tropical N Atlantic zones through early next week. Moderate to rough seas with these winds will subside through Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An extensive 1026 mb subtropical ridge centered just east of Bermuda dominates the entire tropical Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh to locally strong trade winds south of 23N and between 65W and 75W, along with moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds prevail south of 20N and west of 40W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate seas are evident off the coast of Africa, north of 19N. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas found north of the monsoon trough to 27N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Saharan Air prevail across the trade wind zone of the entire basin from W Africa to the Caribbean and SE Bahamas. For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will be the main feature controlling the wind regime across the region into next week, keeping fairly benign marine conditions. Pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N during each late afternoon and at night through early next week. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################