--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-29 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC290233_C_KWBC_20260629023438_32440682-4039-TWDAT.txt ****0000004858**** AXNT20 KNHC 290233 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jun 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0325 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W, south of 13N, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found south of 10N and between 50W and 58W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 66W, south of 20N, moving westward near 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 17N to 22N and between 59W and 67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 06N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N28W to 05N53W. Isolated showers are present within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends westward into the Gulf waters, supporting fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and moderate seas south of 23N and between 90W and 95W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas west of 93W and north of 23N. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning and then prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper low moving across the Florida Keys and diurnal heating combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Cuba and nearby waters. Scattered showers are also affecting the NE Caribbean due to another upper level low north of the area and a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near gale-force force easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, reaching near-gale speeds offshore of Colombia at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low centered north of the Leeward Islands combine with a surface trough along 61W to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 20N to 26N and between 57W and 66W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 25N and east of 30W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 18N and east of 20W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed winds up to 31 kt between Gran Canaria and Tenerife in the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. On Mon, a weak cold front should push off of the SE United States coast and extend from approximately 31N73W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the cold front is anticipated to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form along the western end of the frontal system on Monday or Tuesday. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts westward over our NW waters north of 28N. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC291009_C_KWBC_20260629101020_9109880-7105-TWDAT.txt ****0000004204**** AXNT20 KNHC 291009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Jun 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 04-08N between 27W-31W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W, south of 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found along the wave axis and N of 06N. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 68W, south of 20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N28W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, no significant convection is present at this time. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends westward into the Gulf waters, supporting fresh NE-E winds W of 90W, and moderate SE winds E of 90W. Moderate seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning and then prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, reaching near-gale speeds offshore of Colombia at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low centered north of the Leeward Islands combine with a surface trough along 63W to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 26N and between 57W and 64W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 25N and east of 30W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 18N and east of 20W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the forecast area through today. While most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. A weak cold front will push off of the SE United States coast today and extend from 31N73W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the front is anticipated to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form along the western end of the frontal system today or Tuesday. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts westward over our NW waters north of 28N. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC291428_C_KWBC_20260629142844_32440682-4081-TWDAT.txt ****0000005189**** AXNT20 KNHC 291428 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Jun 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1420 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 03N-08N between 25W-32W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 61W, south of 14N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found along the wave axis from 06N-10N between 59W-61W. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 69W, south of 20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. No convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 05N40W to 06N53W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, no significant convection is present at this time. ...GULF OF AMERICA... 1019 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf near 28N86W. A trough is over the Bay of Campeche in the far southwest Gulf along 92W south of 22N. Moderate S to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the western Gulf with gentle breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Various observations over southern Mexico including Veracruz are showing minor limitations to visibility due to haze. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region while a weak cold front is forecast to reach the NE Gulf late tonight into Tue with little impact in winds and seas. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Fri night due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning and then prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. A few thunderstorms are active across Trinidad associated with a tropical wave moving into the Windward Islands. No significant convection is evident elsewhere. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, reaching near-gale speeds offshore of Colombia at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low centered north of the Leeward Islands near 24N65W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain active within 180 nm southeast of an associated surface trough extending from 26N62W to 21N67W. The remainder of the Atlantic discussion area is dominated by the subtropical ridge north of 20N, interrupted only by a surface trough along roughly 45W from 20N to 25N. This pattern is supporting moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas north of 20N, east of 35W. It is also supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south over the deep tropics east of 35W with 5-7 ft seas, except near 8 ft southeast of Barbados. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 18N and east of 20W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate the forecast area through today. While most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. A weak cold front will push off of the SE United States coast today and extend from 31N72W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the front is anticipated to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form along the western end of the frontal system in the next day or two. Gradual development is possible while the system drifts southward and then westward before environmental conditions become less conducive later this week. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################