--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC020440_C_KWBC_20261002044018_4522426-5330-TWDAT.txt ****0000004995**** AXNT20 KNHC 020440 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 35W from 06N to 20N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 68W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce some convective activity mainly N of 16N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues westward to 08N29W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 06N38W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 10W and 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper-level low currently over the Yucatan Peninsula, combined with abundant tropical moisture, is promoting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf. Fresh to strong winds are noted with this convection. Another area of convection has flared-up over the Yucatan Peninsula where a surface trough is noted. A frontal boundary is approaching the NW Gulf waters, with scattered moderate convection noted ahead of it along the coasts of Texas and NW Mexico. Otherwise, a ridge dominates the Gulf waters supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, the upper-level low will continue to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf tonight, spreading to the N Gulf on Fri and Sat. A tightening pressure gradient will increase SE winds up to fresh to locally strong over the E and central Gulf through Fri. A weak cold moving across Texas will weaken the pressure gradient, allowing the winds across the Gulf to diminish Fri into the weekend. On Sun, the front will reach the NW Gulf, extending from Alabama to just offshore the Texas-Mexico border to near Veracruz on Mon morning. Winds behind the front should only be N to NE moderate to locally fresh. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is drawing abundant moisture from the eastern Pacific into the western Caribbean, which continues to fuel scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly W of 80W. This convective activity is more concentrated over western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. High pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of the Caribbean Sea with moderate seas. For the forecast, the upper-level low will support scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 80W through Fri. A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean and the Colombian Low will force fresh to locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun through early next week leading to only moderate trades across the Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture continues to sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 70W. To the E, a surface trough is analyzed from 27N57W to 20N63W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the northern half of the trough. A 1017 mb low is centered near 24N34W with no significant convection. The remainder of the forecast area is under the influence of a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1028 mb located NE of the Azores. A 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed over the western Atlantic near 28N51W. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are noted between the Bahamas and Cuba. Moderate to fresh NE winds are ahead of the tropical wave located near 35W. Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds prevail with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W through at least Sat. Meanwhile, a surface trough - associated with the remnants of Fay - will support similar shower and thunderstorm activity over the next couple days north of 22N and east of 65W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will boost to fresh to locally strong tonight and Fri night. Otherwise, winds and seas will be quiescent through Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning with increasing winds and building seas behind the boundary. $$ ERA --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC020937_C_KWBC_20261002093821_4522426-5352-TWDAT.txt ****0000004744**** AXNT20 KNHC 020937 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0925 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 15N and between 32W and 42W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N17W and continues southwestward to 11N31W. The ITCZ extends from 06N40W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 08N to 17N and between 43W and 57W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad upper-level low over SE Mexico, combined with abundant tropical moisture, promote scattered showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf. High pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico support moderate to locally strong SE winds and moderate seas across much of the basin. The strongest winds and highest seas are found north of the Yucatan peninsula. For the forecast, the aforementioned upper-level low and abundant moisture will promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern and northern Gulf through this weekend. High pressure supports moderate to locally strong SE winds over much of the basin. However, a weak front moving across Texas will weaken the pressure gradient, allowing the winds across the Gulf today into the weekend. Late this weekend, the front will reach the NW Gulf, extending from the Florida panhandle to just offshore the Texas- Mexico border to near Veracruz on Mon morning. Winds behind the front should only be N to NE moderate to fresh and moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The broad upper-level low over SE Mexico and abundant moisture fuel scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly W of 80W. High pressure north of the area continue to support moderate to locally strong easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the Caribbean Sea, except for light to gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean and the Colombian Low will force fresh to locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun through early next week leading to only moderate trades across the Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture continues to sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 70W. To the E, a surface trough is analyzed from 29N55W to the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the northern half of the trough. High pressure between Bermuda and Outer Banks forces moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 28N and west of 70W. The remainder of the forecast area is under the influence of a broad ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure system just off the Iberian peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found south of 22N and west of 30W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring north of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W through at least Sat. Meanwhile, a surface trough - associated with the remnants of Fay - will support similar shower and thunderstorm activity over the next couple days north of 22N and east of 70W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will boost to fresh to locally strong this morning and tonight. Otherwise, winds and seas will be quiescent through Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning with increasing winds and building seas behind the boundary. $$ Delgado --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC021657_C_KWBC_20261002165758_31523192-5352-TWDAT.txt ****0000005486**** AXNT20 KNHC 021657 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37/38W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 14N and between 33W and 40W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the southern coast of Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N21W and then west-northwestward to 12N34W. The ITCZ extends from 06N40W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 09N to 14N and between 52W and 60W, while more scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the far eastern portions of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad upper-level low over SE Mexico, combined with abundant tropical moisture, promote numerous moderate to strong convection over much of the Gulf E of 92W. High pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico support moderate to fresh, locally strong SE winds and moderate seas across much of the basin. The strongest winds and highest seas are found north of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, an upper-level low just west of the northern Yucatan Peninsula moving westward will continue to sustain scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the eastern and central Gulf through the weekend. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the NE Gulf and a couple of troughs over the northern and central Gulf is allowing for mostly fresh east to southeast winds to exist across the central and eastern Gulf waters. A weak cold front is expected to move across the NW Gulf this weekend, and stall from the Florida panhandle to NW Gulf and to the SW by late Sun. Weak low pressure may ride up along the front during the weekend and into Mon enhancing winds some in the NW Gulf and north-central Gulf. Winds elsewhere behind the front are expected to mostly moderate northeast winds. Light to moderate are generally expected across the basin through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The broad upper-level low over SE Mexico and abundant moisture fuel scattered moderate convection mainly W of 80W. High pressure north of the area continues to support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the Caribbean Sea, except for light to gentle winds in the SW Caribbean. Winds are locally strong offshore Colombia and Venezuela, and also in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, an upper-level low currently over southeastern Mexico with abundant tropical moisture will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 80W today. A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean and the Colombian Low will force fresh to locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun through early next week leading to only moderate trades across the Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture continues to sustain scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 70W. To the E, a surface trough is analyzed from 33N51W to near 20N65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 22N between 55W and 70W. High pressure between Bermuda and Outer Banks forces moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 28N and west of 70W. The remainder of the forecast area is under the influence of a broad ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure system just off the Iberian peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found south of 22N and west of 30W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring north of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W through at least Sat. Meanwhile, the combination of a surface trough, remnants of Fay, and a broad upper-level trough digging southward will continue to support similar shower and thunderstorm activity over the next couple days north of about 22N and east of 70W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will pulse to fresh to locally strong speeds tonight. Otherwise, rather tranquil conditions are expected through Wed. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning, followed by increasing winds, possibly to near gale, and building seas. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################