--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-27 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC270523_C_KWBC_20260827052417_38011292-735-TWDAT.txt ****0000007047**** AXNT20 KNHC 270523 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A 1007 mb low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have slightly improved in organization over the last several hours. However, recently received satellite wind data suggests that the circulation is not yet well-defined. Environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for development over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form within the next day or two as the system moves westward to west-northwestward near 20 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. However, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive by this weekend, potentially ending its chances for development. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight and Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with locally very rough seas. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Tropical N Atlantic tropical wave is along 62W moving across the Lesser Antilles and into the far eastern Caribbean Sea, south of 21N, moving quickly westward at 15-20 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with this wave over water. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, south of 20N, moving quickly westward at 15-20 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with this wave over water. A tropical wave has departed the NW Caribbean Sea, now over the central Yucatan Peninsula to the far eastern Pacific Ocean, and is helping to enhance convection over portions of the peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwestward from 19N16W to 1008 mb low pressure, Invest AL96, near 13N33W to 14N43W. The ITCZ extends from 14N43W to 11N60W. Other than the convection described above with Invest AL96, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Dry conditions are present across the basin as a weak ridging prevails, anchored by a 1015 mb high near 27N93W. Light to gentle winds prevail across the area, with slight seas. For the forecast, weak pressure pattern will persist across the Gulf waters through the forecast period, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Costa Rica and Panama nearshore waters. Dry conditions prevail elsewhere over water. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 68W and 80W with 6 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the waters from 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are slight in the NW Caribbean, and moderate across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse again to gale-force on Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with locally very rough seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Windward Passage at night. An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. The system may bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on an area of low pressure, Invest AL96, that has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation. Divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from roughly 27N to 31N and W of 79W. A weak surface trough runs from north of the waters through 31N57W to 24N61W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found within 90-120 nm either side of the trough. To the east, a cold front is analyzed N of 27N and E of 42W with no noticeable convective activity near the boundary. Fresh to strong winds associated with Invest AL96 are found from 10N to 22N between 27W and 36W, with rough to very rough seas from 09N to 19N between 26W and 33W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough to 24N between 26W and 40W, with fresh northerly winds funneling along the coast of Africa from 18N to 26N to the east of 23W. Moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the offshore and open waters. Slight seas are west of 70W, with mainly moderate seas across the remainder of the waters, except also slight withing about 150 nm ahead/south of the cold front mentioned. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge, and associated weak pressure gradient, will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days. This will support mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong off northern Hispaniola at night. An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. The system may bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the southeast waters this weekend. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC270844_C_KWBC_20260827084507_21889468-478-TWDAT.txt ****0000006864**** AXNT20 KNHC 270844 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A 1007 mb low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Satellite imagery indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, have become better organized tonight. If the current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today. However, environmental conditions are expected to become hostile beginning on Friday, likely ending its chances for development. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight and Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with locally very rough seas. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Tropical N Atlantic tropical wave is along 62W moving across the Lesser Antilles and into the far eastern Caribbean Sea, south of 21N, moving quickly westward at 15-20 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with this wave over water. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, south of 20N, moving quickly westward at 15-20 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with this wave over water. A tropical wave has departed the NW Caribbean Sea, now over the central Yucatan Peninsula to the far eastern Pacific Ocean, and is helping to enhance convection over portions of the peninsula. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwestward from 19N16W to 1008 mb low pressure, Invest AL96, near 13N33W to 14N43W. The ITCZ extends from 14N43W to 11N60W. Other than the convection described above with Invest AL96, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Dry conditions are present across the basin as a weak ridging prevails, anchored by a 1015 mb high near 27N93W. Light to gentle winds prevail across the area, with slight seas. For the forecast, weak pressure pattern will persist across the Gulf waters through the forecast period, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Costa Rica and Panama nearshore waters. Dry conditions prevail elsewhere over water. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 68W and 80W with 6 to 9 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the waters from 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are slight in the NW Caribbean, and moderate across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse again to gale-force on Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with locally very rough seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Windward Passage at night. An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. The system may bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on an area of low pressure, Invest AL96, that has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation. Divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from roughly 27N to 31N and W of 79W. A weak surface trough runs from north of the waters through 31N57W to 24N61W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found within 90-120 nm either side of the trough. To the east, a cold front is analyzed N of 27N and E of 42W with no noticeable convective activity near the boundary. Fresh to strong winds associated with Invest AL96 are found from 10N to 22N between 27W and 36W, with rough to very rough seas from 09N to 19N between 26W and 33W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough to 24N between 26W and 40W, with fresh northerly winds funneling along the coast of Africa from 18N to 26N to the east of 23W. Moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the offshore and open waters. Slight seas are west of 70W, with mainly moderate seas across the remainder of the waters, except also slight withing about 150 nm ahead/south of the cold front mentioned. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge, and associated weak pressure gradient, will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days. This will support mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong off northern Hispaniola at night. An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. The system may bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the southeast waters this weekend. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC271011_C_KWBC_20260827101208_21889468-483-TWDAT.txt ****0000005946**** AXNT20 KNHC 271011 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1005 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): Satellite imagery indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, have become better organized tonight. If the current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today. However, environmental conditions are expected to become hostile beginning on Friday, likely ending its chances for development. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to very rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off Colombia. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is observed with this wave. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 11N38W. The ITCZ continues from 11N38W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 04N to 15N and east of 23W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the northern Gulf waters and off western Florida. A weak pressure gradient across the basin supports light to gentle winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf waters through early next week, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. A frontal boundary will meander near the northern Gulf waters during the next few days producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher seas associated with these storms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in the Gulf of Honduras, SE Caribbean and off Panama and Costa Rica. Drier conditions are noted elsewhere. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are present in the north-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are occurring in the Windward Passage and the rest of the Caribbean south of 18N. North of 18N, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off Colombia. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Windward Passage at night. An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic has a high chance of tropical development over the next couples of days. The system will bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on an area of low pressure, Invest AL96, that has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation. A surface trough located SE of Bermuda is producing a few showers north of 26N and between 58W and 63W. Similar convection is found in the waters off NE Florida. The SW North Atlantic is dominated by a weak high pressure area that supports moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas, west of 60W. A cold front extends from Morocco to 26N22W to 28N34W, followed by a stationary front north of our area. Broad high pressure also prevails across the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, maintaining moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night. An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic has a high chance of tropical development over the next couple of days. The system will bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the southeast waters this weekend. $$ Delgado --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC271012_C_KWBC_20260827101308_21889468-484-TWDAT.txt ****0000005984**** AXNT20 KNHC 271012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1005 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): Satellite imagery indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, have become better organized tonight. If the current trends continue, advisories could be initiated on a short-lived tropical depression or storm later today. However, environmental conditions are expected to become hostile beginning on Friday, likely ending its chances for development. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to very rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off Colombia. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is observed with this wave. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 11N38W. The ITCZ continues from 11N38W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 04N to 15N and east of 23W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the northern Gulf waters and off western Florida. A weak pressure gradient across the basin supports light to gentle winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf waters through early next week, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. A frontal boundary will meander near the northern Gulf waters during the next few days producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher seas associated with these storms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in the Gulf of Honduras, SE Caribbean and off Panama and Costa Rica. Drier conditions are noted elsewhere. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are present in the north-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are occurring in the Windward Passage and the rest of the Caribbean south of 18N. North of 18N, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off Colombia. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Windward Passage at night. An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic has a high chance of tropical development over the next couples of days. The system will bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on an area of low pressure, Invest AL96, that has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation. A surface trough located SE of Bermuda is producing a few showers north of 26N and between 58W and 63W. Similar convection is found in the waters off NE Florida. The SW North Atlantic is dominated by a weak high pressure area that supports moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas, west of 60W. A cold front extends from Morocco to 26N22W to 28N34W, followed by a stationary front north of our area. Broad high pressure also prevails across the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, maintaining moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night. An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic has a high chance of tropical development over the next couple of days. The system will bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the southeast waters this weekend. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC271727_C_KWBC_20260827172811_21889468-509-TWDAT.txt ****0000006785**** AXNT20 KNHC 271727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1715 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near 13.6N 38.7W at 27/1500 UTC or 1350 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 21 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 4 m in the NE quadrant. On the forecast track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this weekend. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Heavy rain from this system could begin to affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Dolly NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to very rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale- force tonight off Colombia. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa and has been analyzed along 20.5W, south of 18N. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 14N between 20W and 24W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is observed with this wave. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82.5W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. The interaction with the wave and the eastern end of the monsoon trough is supporting scattered moderate convection south of 12N and west of 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17.5N16W and extends southwestward to 10N24W to 10N47W. The ITCZ continues from 10N47W to 11N61.5W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N to 14N between 56W and 60W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted north of 27.5N between 83W and 95W, ahead of a stationary frontal boundary located over the SE United States. Similar convection is noted off western Florida. A weak pressure gradient across the basin supports light to gentle winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf waters through early next week, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. A frontal boundary will meander near the northern Gulf waters during the next few days producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher seas associated with these storms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in the Gulf of Honduras. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are present in the north- central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across the rest of the Caribbean, except for gentle winds and slight seas over the NW part of the basin. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off Colombia. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Windward Passage at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.6N 38.7W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 13.7N 42.0W this evening, 14.4N 46.4W Fri morning, 15.1N 51.1W Fri evening, 15.9N 55.6W Sat morning, become post-tropical and move to 16.7N 59.5W Sat evening, and 17.7N 63.2W Sun morning. Dolly will dissipate early Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on the recently upgraded Tropical Storm Dolly. A surface trough located SE of Bermuda is producing a few showers north of 22N and between 57W and 66W. Scattered moderate convection is also found west of 75W. The SW North Atlantic is dominated by a weak high pressure area that supports moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas, west of 35W. A cold front extends from 30N10W to 25N26W to 28N35W, followed by a stationary front north of our area. Broad high pressure also prevails across the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, maintaining moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.6N 38.7W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 13.7N 42.0W this evening, 14.4N 46.4W Fri morning, 15.1N 51.1W Fri evening, 15.9N 55.6W Sat morning, become post- tropical and move to 16.7N 59.5W Sat evening, and 17.7N 63.2W Sun morning. Dolly will dissipate early Mon.$$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC272123_C_KWBC_20260827212413_21889468-528-TWDAT.txt ****0000007056**** AXNT20 KNHC 272123 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near 13.7N 40.7W at 27/2100 UTC or 1240 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 21 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12.5 ft (4.0 m). Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the SE semicircle and 90 nm in the NW semicircle. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Dolly NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to very rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale- force tonight off Colombia. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along has emerged off the coast of Africa and has been analyzed along 22W, south of 18N and approaching the Cabo Verde Islands while moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found from 07N to 14N between 21W and 26W. A tropical wave is moving from the eastern to the central Caribbean now along 68W, south of 20N near the Mona Passage to portions of Venezuela, moving westward at around 20 kt. No significant convection is observed with this wave except over the Mona Passage and it may be helping to enhance diurnal convection over portions of Hispaniola. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, south of 19N to across portions of eastern Honduras and central Nicaragua, moving quickly westward around 25 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave but some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the Gulf of Honduras area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16.5 and extends southwestward to 10N32W. The ITCZ extends from southwest of Dolly at 08N46W to near the coast of NE Venezuela at 11N62W. Other than the convection described with Dolly and the tropical wave above, no significant convection is found with the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A frontal trough is over the north-central and NE Gulf with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters north of 26N and east of 94W. Otherwise, 1014 mb high pressure is centered in the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico with light to gentle anticyclone winds dominating the basin, locally higher in any convection. Seas are mainly slight, except locally higher in any convection. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf waters through early next week, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. A frontal boundary will meander near the northern Gulf waters during the next few days producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher seas associated with these storms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia. Other than scattered showers and thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean mainly south of 11N near the monsoon trough, no significant convection is noted over the basin. Fresh to strong trades are found from 10N to 17N with 7 to 11 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 10N to 18N, with gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, except slight in the lee of Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula offshore Mexico. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off Colombia. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Windward Passage at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.7N 40.7W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 14.1N 43.9W Fri morning, 14.7N 48.5W Fri afternoon, 15.6N 53.1W Sat morning, become post- tropical and move to 16.5N 57.3W Sat afternoon, 17.3N 61.5W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on the Tropical Storm Dolly. A surface trough located SE of Bermuda extends from 30N59W to 22N69W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found within 90 nm either side of the trough. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the western Bahamas to the Florida Peninsula. The strongest winds away from Dolly are found offshore Africa, north of 18N and east of 20W where fresh to strong speeds are found. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found across the remainder of the waters north of 15N and east of 35W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere under a relatively relaxed pressure gradient. Mainly slight seas are found west of 70W, and moderate elsewhere away from Dolly. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.7N 40.7W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 14.1N 43.9W Fri morning, 14.7N 48.5W Fri afternoon, 15.6N 53.1W Sat morning, become post-tropical and move to 16.5N 57.3W Sat afternoon, 17.3N 61.5W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun afternoon. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC272210AAA_C_KWBC_20260827221113_21889468-533-TWDAT.txt ****0000007773**** AXNT20 KNHC 272210 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026 Updated for details on Tropical Storm Dolly Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dolly is centered near 13.7N 40.7W at 27/2100 UTC or 1240 nm E of the Leeward Islands, moving W at 21 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12.5 ft (4.0 m). Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the SE semicircle and 90 nm in the NW semicircle. Dolly is moving toward the west and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, this system should be nearing the Leeward Islands this weekend. Little change in strength is likely during the next 48 hours, and Dolly is forecast to degenerate into a tropical wave before it reaches the Leeward Islands. Heavy rain from Dolly could affect the Leeward Islands late Saturday into Sunday, with rainfall moving into the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola Sunday and Monday. This heavy rain may produce flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain of the Leeward Islands. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center t website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Dolly NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to very rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale- force tonight off Colombia. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along has emerged off the coast of Africa and has been analyzed along 22W, south of 18N and approaching the Cabo Verde Islands while moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found from 07N to 14N between 21W and 26W. A tropical wave is moving from the eastern to the central Caribbean now along 68W, south of 20N near the Mona Passage to portions of Venezuela, moving westward at around 20 kt. No significant convection is observed with this wave except over the Mona Passage and it may be helping to enhance diurnal convection over portions of Hispaniola. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, south of 19N to across portions of eastern Honduras and central Nicaragua, moving quickly westward around 25 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave but some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the Gulf of Honduras area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16.5 and extends southwestward to 10N32W. The ITCZ extends from southwest of Dolly at 08N46W to near the coast of NE Venezuela at 11N62W. Other than the convection described with Dolly and the tropical wave above, no significant convection is found with the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A frontal trough is over the north-central and NE Gulf with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters north of 26N and east of 94W. Otherwise, 1014 mb high pressure is centered in the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico with light to gentle anticyclone winds dominating the basin, locally higher in any convection. Seas are mainly slight, except locally higher in any convection. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf waters through early next week, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. A frontal boundary will meander near the northern Gulf waters during the next few days producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher seas associated with these storms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia. Other than scattered showers and thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean mainly south of 11N near the monsoon trough, no significant convection is noted over the basin. Fresh to strong trades are found from 10N to 17N with 7 to 11 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 10N to 18N, with gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, except slight in the lee of Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula offshore Mexico. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight off Colombia. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Windward Passage at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.7N 40.7W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 14.1N 43.9W Fri morning, 14.7N 48.5W Fri afternoon, 15.6N 53.1W Sat morning, become post- tropical and move to 16.5N 57.3W Sat afternoon, 17.3N 61.5W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on the Tropical Storm Dolly. A surface trough located SE of Bermuda extends from 30N59W to 22N69W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found within 90 nm either side of the trough. Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the western Bahamas to the Florida Peninsula. The strongest winds away from Dolly are found offshore Africa, north of 18N and east of 20W where fresh to strong speeds are found. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found across the remainder of the waters north of 15N and east of 35W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere under a relatively relaxed pressure gradient. Mainly slight seas are found west of 70W, and moderate elsewhere away from Dolly. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night. Tropical Storm Dolly is near 13.7N 40.7W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving west at 21 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Dolly will move to 14.1N 43.9W Fri morning, 14.7N 48.5W Fri afternoon, 15.6N 53.1W Sat morning, become post-tropical and move to 16.5N 57.3W Sat afternoon, 17.3N 61.5W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun afternoon. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################