--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-20 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC200015_C_KWBC_20260720001552_32440682-5728-TWDAT.txt ****0000008160**** AXNT20 KNHC 200015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Jul 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Two is centered near 27.7N 85.0W at 20/0000 UTC or 155 nm SSE of Panama City Florida, stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered a little to 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 6 ft in the NE quadrant, where fresh winds are present. The depression has generally changed little over the past several hours. The circulation is observed to be rather well organized, and deep convection is gradually increasing near the center and in bands. This convection consists of the numerous moderate to isolated type intensity seen in a wide band from 24N to 25N between 85W and 87W, and from 24N to 28N between 87W and 90W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are elsewhere north of 24N east of 91W. A very slow northwestward or north- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Mon. The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches through Fri along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W, south of 19N moving westward near 15 kt. Isolated showers are possible where the wave axis crosses the monsoon trough. Otherwise, no significant convection is occurring near this wave due to the presence of a dense Saharan Air Layer. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W south of 18N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave from 13N to 15N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 19N17W, and continues southwestward to 12N24W to 10N32W and to 08N41W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N50W and to 09N58W. Only scattered moderate convection is seen within 30 nm of the trough between 27W-30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Two that is currently over the eastern Gulf about 165 nm south-southeast of Panama City, Florida. Elsewhere, a 1020 mb high center is analyzed over the western Gulf at 25N92W. Latest satellite scatterometer data and buoy data indicate light to gentle anticyclonic winds west of 90W. Seas are 2 to 3 ft over this part of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate cyclonic winds are east of 90W, except for fresh to strong southeast to south winds within about 180 nm northeast of Tropical Depression Two. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over these waters, including the Bay of Campeche, with the exception of higher seas of 4 to 6 ft over the NE Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Depression is forecast to move to 27.9N 85.2W late tonight, strengthen to a tropical storm near 28.2N 85.5W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, move to near 28.5N 86.0W late Mon night, to near 28.9N 86.7W Tue afternoon, to near 29.2N 87.5W late Tue night with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and to near 29.4N 88.8W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Tropical Cyclone Two is forecast to change little in intensity as it moves to near the Louisiana coast Thu afternoon. Otherwise outside from the affects of this system, rather weak high pressure will dominate the general wind flow pattern allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through at least midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure to its south is resulting in strong to near-gale trades over most of the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds near northwest Colombia. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are over these waters, except for higher seas of 10 to 13 ft offshore Colombia. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate moderate to fresh trades over the eastern Caribbean and in the northern part of the Windward Passage. Moderate seas are with these winds. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds along with slight to moderate are noted, primarily over the northwestern section of the sea. Numerous moderate to strong convection is over the southwestern part of the sea south of 11N between Colombia and Panama due to the close proximity of the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the interior portions of Cuba and over the western part of Jamaica. Isolated showers are elsewhere south of 16N west of 78W to inland some sections of Central America. For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic will weaken some early this week allowing the pressure gradient over the Caribbean to relax some allowing for the trades to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds across most of the basin, with still some strong winds pulsing in the south-central Caribbean and in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed from near 31N39W to 23N46W. Downstream from it, an upper-level low is noted in water vapor imagery moving west-southwestward near 23N46W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are evident from 24N to 29N between 40W and 47W. To the west, a 1021 mb high is analyzed over the western Atlantic near 29N58W. High pressure covers the area practically north of 19N, except in the vicinity of the trough. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure to its south is sustaining mostly fresh trades south of 24N between 55W and 75W, including the waters near Hispaniola and over the northern part of the Windward Passage. A swath of fresh northeast winds is over the central Atlantic from 26N to 31N between 40W and 50W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft over these waters. Elsewhere across the basin, mostly moderate to fresh trades continue along with seas of 4 to 6 ft south of about 24N east of 67W, except for higher seas of 6 to 7 ft south of 20N between the Lesser Antilles and 54W. Seas elsewhere are around 3 to 4 ft along with moderate or weaker winds. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough will move west from about 50W to 70W for the first half of this week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail south f 24N during this time, with gentle winds to the north. Locally strong winds will pulse each evening north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC200015_C_KWBC_20260720001652_32440682-5729-TWDAT.txt ****0000008159**** AXNT20 KNHC 200015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Jul 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Two is centered near 27.7N 85.0W at 20/0000 UTC or 155 nm SSE of Panama City Florida, stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered a little to 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 6 ft in the NE quadrant, where fresh winds are present. The depression has generally changed little over the past several hours. The circulation is observed to be rather well organized, and deep convection is gradually increasing near the center and in bands. This convection consists of the numerous moderate to isolated type intensity seen in a wide band from 24N to 25N between 85W and 87W, and from 24N to 28N between 87W and 90W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are elsewhere north of 24N east of 91W. A very slow northwestward or north- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Mon. The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches through Fri along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W, south of 19N moving westward near 15 kt. Isolated showers are possible where the wave axis crosses the monsoon trough. Otherwise, no significant convection is occurring near this wave due to the presence of a dense Saharan Air Layer. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W south of 18N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave from 13N to 15N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 19N17W, and continues southwestward to 12N24W to 10N32W and to 08N41W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N50W and to 09N58W. Only scattered moderate convection is seen within 30 nm of the trough between 27W-30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Two that is currently over the eastern Gulf about 165 nm south-southeast of Panama City, Florida. Elsewhere, a 1020 mb high center is analyzed over the western Gulf at 25N92W. Latest satellite scatterometer data and buoy data indicate light to gentle anticyclonic winds west of 90W. Seas are 2 to 3 ft over this part of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate cyclonic winds are east of 90W, except for fresh to strong southeast to south winds within about 180 nm northeast of Tropical Depression Two. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over these waters, including the Bay of Campeche, with the exception of higher seas of 4 to 6 ft over the NE Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Depression is forecast to move to 27.9N 85.2W late tonight, strengthen to a tropical storm near 28.2N 85.5W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, move to near 28.5N 86.0W late Mon night, to near 28.9N 86.7W Tue afternoon, to near 29.2N 87.5W late Tue night with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and to near 29.4N 88.8W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Tropical Cyclone Two is forecast to change little in intensity as it moves to near the Louisiana coast Thu afternoon. Otherwise outside from the affects of this system, rather weak high pressure will dominate the general wind flow pattern allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through at least midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure to its south is resulting in strong to near-gale trades over most of the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds near northwest Colombia. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are over these waters, except for higher seas of 10 to 13 ft offshore Colombia. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate moderate to fresh trades over the eastern Caribbean and in the northern part of the Windward Passage. Moderate seas are with these winds. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds along with slight to moderate are noted, primarily over the northwestern section of the sea. Numerous moderate to strong convection is over the southwestern part of the sea south of 11N between Colombia and Panama due to the close proximity of the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the interior portions of Cuba and over the western part of Jamaica. Isolated showers are elsewhere south of 16N west of 78W to inland some sections of Central America. For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic will weaken some early this week allowing the pressure gradient over the Caribbean to relax some allowing for the trades to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds across most of the basin, with still some strong winds pulsing in the south-central Caribbean and in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed from near 31N39W to 23N46W. Downstream from it, an upper-level low is noted in water vapor imagery moving west-southwestward near 23N46W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are evident from 24N to 29N between 40W and 47W. To the west, a 1021 mb high is analyzed over the western Atlantic near 29N58W. High pressure covers the area practically north of 19N, except in the vicinity of the trough. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure to its south is sustaining mostly fresh trades south of 24N between 55W and 75W, including the waters near Hispaniola and over the northern part of the Windward Passage. A swath of fresh northeast winds is over the central Atlantic from 26N to 31N between 40W and 50W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft over these waters. Elsewhere across the basin, mostly moderate to fresh trades continue along with seas of 4 to 6 ft south of about 24N east of 67W, except for higher seas of 6 to 7 ft south of 20N between the Lesser Antilles and 54W. Seas elsewhere are around 3 to 4 ft along with moderate or weaker winds. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will move west to near 70W for the first half of this week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail south f 24N during this time, with gentle winds to the north. Locally strong winds will pulse each evening north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC200020CCA_C_KWBC_20260720002152_32440682-5731-TWDAT.txt ****0000008258**** AXNT20 KNHC 200020 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Jul 20 2026 Corrected Gulf of America Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Two is centered near 27.7N 85.0W at 20/0000 UTC or about 155 nm SSE of Panama City Florida, stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure has lowered a little to 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 6 ft in the NE quadrant, where fresh winds are present. The depression has generally changed little over the past several hours. The circulation is observed to be rather well organized, and deep convection is gradually increasing near the center and in bands. This convection consists of the numerous moderate to isolated type intensity seen in a wide band from 24N to 25N between 85W and 87W, and from 24N to 28N between 87W and 90W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are elsewhere north of 24N east of 91W. A very slow northwestward or north- northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two, followed by a turn toward the west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Mon. The tropical depression is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with locally higher totals around 8 inches through Fri along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida to the Middle Texas Coast, including southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W, south of 19N moving westward near 15 kt. Isolated showers are possible where the wave axis crosses the monsoon trough. Otherwise, no significant convection is occurring near this wave due to the presence of a dense Saharan Air Layer. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W south of 18N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave from 13N to 15N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 19N17W, and continues southwestward to 12N24W to 10N32W and to 08N41W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N50W and to 09N58W. Only scattered moderate convection is seen within 30 nm of the trough between 27W-30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA...Corrected Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Two that is currently over the eastern Gulf, roughly about 165 nm south-southeast of Panama City, Florida. Elsewhere, a 1020 mb high center is analyzed over the western Gulf at 25N92W. Latest satellite scatterometer data and buoy data indicate light to gentle anticyclonic winds west of 90W. Seas are 2 to 3 ft over this part of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate cyclonic winds are east of 90W, except for fresh to strong southeast to south winds within about 180 nm northeast of Tropical Depression Two. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over these waters, including the Bay of Campeche, with the exception of higher seas of 4 to 6 ft over the NE Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Two is forecast to move to 27.9N 85.2W late tonight, strengthen to a tropical storm near 28.2N 85.5W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, move to near 28.5N 86.0W late Mon night, to near 28.9N 86.7W Tue afternoon, to near 29.2N 87.5W late Tue night with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt and to near 29.4N 88.8W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Tropical Cyclone Two is forecast to change little in intensity as it moves to near the Louisiana coast Thu afternoon. Otherwise outside from the affects of this system, rather weak high pressure will dominate the general wind flow pattern allowing for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through at least midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure to its south is resulting in strong to near-gale trades over most of the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds near northwest Colombia. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are over these waters, except for higher seas of 10 to 13 ft offshore Colombia. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate moderate to fresh trades over the eastern Caribbean, and in the northern part of the Windward Passage. Moderate seas are with these winds. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds along with slight to moderate seas are noted, primarily over the northwestern section of the sea. Numerous moderate to strong convection is over the southwestern part of the sea south of 11N between Colombia and Panama due to the close proximity of the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the interior portions of Cuba and over the western part of Jamaica. Isolated showers are elsewhere south of 16N west of 78W to inland some sections of Central America. For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic will weaken some early this week allowing the pressure gradient over the Caribbean to relax some allowing for the trades to diminish to moderate to fresh speeds across most of the basin, with still some strong winds pulsing in the south-central Caribbean and in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed from near 31N39W to 23N46W. Downstream from it, an upper-level low is noted on water vapor imagery moving west-southwestward near 23N46W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are evident from 24N to 29N between 40W and 47W. To the west, a 1021 mb high is analyzed over the western Atlantic near 29N58W. High pressure covers the area practically north of 19N, except in the vicinity of the trough. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure to its south is sustaining mostly fresh trades south of 24N between 55W and 75W, including the waters near Hispaniola and over the northern part of the Windward Passage. A swath of fresh northeast winds is over the central Atlantic from 26N to 31N between 40W and 50W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft over these waters. Elsewhere across the basin, mostly moderate to fresh trades continue along with seas of 4 to 6 ft south of about 24N east of 67W, except for higher seas of 6 to 7 ft confined to south of 20N between the Lesser Antilles and 54W. Seas elsewhere are around 3 to 4 ft along with moderate or weaker winds. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will move west to near 70W for the first half of this week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail south f 24N during this time, with gentle winds to the north. Locally strong winds will pulse each evening north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC200607_C_KWBC_20260720060754_9109880-8742-TWDAT.txt ****0000006074**** AXNT20 KNHC 200607 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jul 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0555 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Two is centered near 28.4N 85.3W at 20/0300 UTC or about 110 nm S of Panama City, Florida, stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are near 8 ft in the NE quadrant, where fresh to strong winds are present. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring north of 25N and east of 91W. A slow northwestward or north-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west- northwest or west. On the forecast track, the depression will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A well-defined tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 38W, south of 19N. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave due to dry Saharan air. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted over the nearby Caribbean waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 10N30W and then to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N42W to 07N58W. A few showers are evident within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Two that is currently over the eastern Gulf. Elsewhere, a 1015 mb high center is analyzed over the western Gulf at 26N93W. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds and slight seas are present off western Yucatan. Meanwhile, moderate to occasionally fresh SE-S winds and seas of 2-4 ft are present off Tamaulipas and southern Texas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Two is near 28.0N 85.1W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north-northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Two will move to 28.3N 85.3W Mon morning, strengthen to a tropical storm near 28.6N 85.7W Mon evening, 28.8N 86.2W Tue morning, 29.1N 87.0W Tue evening, 29.3N 88.1W Wed morning, and 29.2N 89.6W Wed evening. Two will change little in intensity as it moves near 29.0N 93.5W late Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure to its south is resulting in strong to strong easterly trade winds over most of the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, with the strongest winds near northwest Colombia. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas of 6 to 10 ft are noted in these waters. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. A line of strong showers and thunderstorms is present in the SW Caribbean, south of 12N. Generally drier conditions are evident in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge will weaken some early this week, allowing the pressure gradient over the Caribbean to relax somewhat. This will diminish tradewinds to moderate to fresh speeds over most of the basin, with still strong winds pulsing in the south-central Caribbean and likely in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A couple of weak surface troughs and an upper level low in the north-central tropical Atlantic combine to generate isolated showers and thunderstorms north of 20N and between 40W and 60W. The gradient between these troughs and higher pressure to the north sustain moderate to locally fresh NE winds and moderate seas north of 25N and between 40W and 60W. Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic forces moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 25N and between 55W and 75W, along with moderate seas. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally near gale-force N-NE winds and seas of 5-9 ft are present north of 22N and east of 26W. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the water passages between the Canary Islands. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough will move west from about 50W to 70W for the first half of this week. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail S of 24N during this time, with gentle winds to the north. Locally strong winds will pulse each evening N of Hispaniola and likely in the approaches of the Windward Passage. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################