--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-04-21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC210402_C_KWBC_20260421040248_9109880-1578-TWDAT.txt ****0000003870**** AXNT20 KNHC 210402 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Apr 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 01N32W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is along and south of the boundaries mainly W of 20W. GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from near Naples, FL to 22N94W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas prevail in the vicinity of the front. To the NW, a 1017 mb low is analyzed near 27N97W, with trough extending from the low to 21N96W. Fresh winds prevail E of the trough, and moderate winds are W of the trough. Moderate to rough seas prevail across the basin, with highest values across the eastern half. For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail N of the front through Tue. Then on Tue, the western portion of this boundary will gradually dissipate over the central and western Gulf, while the eastern portion will resume moving southward and move across Cuba and the Yucatan Channel, before stalling along about 21N Wed and dissipating early Thu. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will return to the Gulf on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... The front across the southern Gulf and western Atlantic is displacing and weakening the typical subtropical ridge that governs the trade wind flow across the Caribbean. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E trade winds across the basin this afternoon. Moderate seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will continue N of the basin and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient over the Caribbean basin throughout the week. Fresh to strong NE winds will develop Tue night and Wed night across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba, associated with a late-season cold front moving slowly across Cuba. The front is expected to dissipate across eastern Cuba early Thu. Tranquil marine conditions are expected across the entire basin Fri and Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low near 31N67W to 27N75W, then becomes stationary to 26N80W. Scattered showers are active along the front. Fresh to strong NE winds with rough seas are evident north of the front. Farther east, a scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active along a trough ahead of the front extending from 31N68W to 23N73W. A broad ridge dominates the remainder of the discussion area, anchored by 1027 mb high pressure over the north-central Atlantic west of the Azores near 37N42W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it continues moving southeastward, reaching from 31N60W to the NW coast of Cuba by Tue afternoon, and then begin to stall and weaken from 31N55W to 25N60W to eastern Cuba along 21N Wed morning. Winds will diminish Wed as the front stalls and dissipates along 21N by early Thu. Weak high pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda Thu through Sat, in the wake of the front. Large N to NE swell will linger near the weakening front Tue night through Thu morning, including waters near the Windward Passage. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC210830_C_KWBC_20260421083045_38666572-1678-TWDAT.txt ****0000003463**** AXNT20 KNHC 210830 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Apr 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 02N30W. The ITCZ continues from 02N30W to 02S42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and south of the boundaries mainly W of 20W. GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends across the Florida Straits westward to near 24N85W, then dissipating front to 22N93W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, prevail N of the front and E of 90W. Moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are found W of 90W. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail N of the front today. The western portion of this boundary will gradually dissipate over the central and western Gulf today, while the eastern portion will move across Cuba and the Yucatan Channel before stalling along about 21N Wed and dissipating early Thu. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will return to the Gulf on Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh winds off the coast of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range E of 75W, and 3-4 ft W of 75W. For the forecast, weak Atlantic high pressure will continue N of the basin and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient over the Caribbean basin throughout the week. Fresh to strong NE winds will develop tonight and Wed night across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba, associated with a late-season cold front moving slowly across Cuba. The front is expected to dissipate across eastern Cuba early Thu. Tranquil marine conditions are expected across the entire basin Fri and Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N65W southwestward across the central Bahamas and across the Florida Straits. Fresh to near- gale winds, and seas of 7-11 ft prevail W of the front. The rest of the Atlantic discussion waters are dominated by high pressure. Winds are generally moderate to locally fresh across these waters. Northerly swell generated by a gale force low well north of the area is bringing seas of 8-11 ft to the waters N of 27N between 20W and 45W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it continues moving southeastward, reaching from 31N60W to the NW coast of Cuba by this afternoon, and then begin to stall and weaken from 31N55W to 25N60W to eastern Cuba along 21N Wed morning. Winds will diminish Wed as the front stalls and dissipates along 21N by early Thu. Weak high pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda Thu through Sat, in the wake of the front. Large N to NE swell will linger near the weakening front Tue night through Thu morning, including waters near the Windward Passage. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC211813_C_KWBC_20260421181332_49676782-1676-TWDAT.txt ****0000004357**** AXNT20 KNHC 211813 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Apr 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of southern Senegal and Guinea Bissau, then curves southwestward through 06N20W to 03N24W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 03N24W through 00N35W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is flaring up near and south of the monsoon trough from 07S to 05N between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is found near and up to 100 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The southeastern end of a cold front curves southwestward across the Florida Straits to just northwest of the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are observed near and up to 60 nm north of the front. Two modest surface troughs are triggering additional showers at the central Gulf. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft dominate the Florida Straits and southeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are noted at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front is going to move over Cuba this afternoon. In response, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will gradually diminish in the southeastern Gulf in the wake of the front into tonight. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will return to the Gulf on Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The southwestern end of a surface trough is producing patchy showers near Hispaniola. Otherwise, a modest trade-wind regime is persisting across much of the basin. Moderate ENE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are present at the lee of Cuba and northwest of Colombia. Mainly gentle NE to E winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, weak Atlantic high pressure will persist north of the basin and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient over the Caribbean basin throughout the week. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will develop tonight and Wed night across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba, associated with a late- season cold front moving across Cuba. The front is expected to dissipate near the Windward Passage Wed night. Tranquil marine conditions are expected across the entire basin Fri and Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from northeast of Bermuda across 31N62W to beyond the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 200 nm southeast of this boundary. To the south, convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent winds aloft to trigger numerous heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms near the coast of French Guiana, and State of Amapa in Brazil. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are evident behind the aforementioned front, except gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas off northeast Florida to 75W. Fresh with locally strong S to SW winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found ahead of the front, north of 28N between 56W and the front. To the east, gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate north of 20N between 35W and 55W. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it progresses eastward through Thu, although conditions in the wake of the front will gradually improve as the front weakens late this week. High pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda for the end of the week, bringing tranquil conditions to area waters into the weekend. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################