--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC020614_C_KWBC_20260502061534_49676782-2368-TWDAT.txt ****0000006733**** AXNT20 KNHC 020614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat May 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front extends across northern Florida to Cedar Key then stalls across the NE Gulf to a 1005 mb low offshore Texas near 27N94W and then transitions back to a cold front that continues SW to NE Mexico near 24N98W. The front is supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly along the western portion. Winds are increasing behind the front with fresh to strong out of the NE, developing frequent gusts to gale-force, and building seas. By Sat morning, the front is forecast to extend from northern Florida to near Poza Rica, Mexico, and then from south Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. The front will continue to be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico by Sat morning, and offshore Veracruz Sat afternoon and night. Frequent gusts to gale-force are also forecast in the NW Gulf, including in the coastal waters. Rough seas up to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds over the SW Gulf. Marine conditions should significantly improve early next week. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, extending from 00N to 13N with an axis near 28W, moving W at around 10 kt. This wave is encompassed within a thick Saharan Air Layer with significant dry air and an otherwise hostile environment preventing any sort of deep convection. However, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is confined to the southern portion of the wave near the ITCZ from 04S to 04N between 24W and 39W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland Africa. The ITCZ extends from 02N15W to 02N25W then resumes near 02N32W and continues to 01N50W. For information on convection see the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a Gale Warning in the western Gulf. A strong late-season cold front extends across northern Florida to Cedar Key then stalls across the NE Gulf to a 1005 mb low offshore Texas near 27N94W and then transitions back to a cold front that continues SW to NE Mexico near 24N98W. The front is supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly along the western portion. Winds are increasing behind the front with fresh to strong out of the NE, developing frequent gusts to gale-force, and building seas. Fresh to strong E-SE winds are near the Yucatan Peninsula, with gentle to moderate SE-S winds elsewhere ahead of the front. Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the west and northwest Yucatan coasts in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, by Sat morning, the front will extend from northern Florida to near Poza Rica, Mexico, and then from south Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. The front will continue to be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico by Sat morning, and offshore Veracruz Sat afternoon and night. Frequent gusts to gale-force are also forecast in the NW Gulf, including in the coastal waters. Rough seas up to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds over the SW Gulf. Marine conditions should significantly improve early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1016 mb high pressure E of the SE Bahamas and a 1006 mb low pressure over northern Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong trades off northern Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in these areas. Fresh to locally strong E winds are also ongoing N of Honduras in the vicinity of the Bay Islands and into the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are moderate to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly trades prevail elsewhere, along with 3 to 6 ft seas, except for light to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection is occurring across the Nicaragua, Panama and Costa Rica offshore waters. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon, reaching strong speeds at times in the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras with locally rough seas. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel by Mon. This will slight weaken the pressure gradient and winds across the NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary extends from near Bermuda to NE Florida. Over the central subtropical waters, a second cold front extends from 31N36W to 27N54W. Ahead of it, a surface trough extends from 30N28W to 21N55W to 20N63W. A 1021 mb high is W of the Canary Islands extending a broad ridge to remaining central and SW subtropical waters. Scatterometer data show moderate or weaker winds associated with these features, which is maintaining moderate seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will move eastward across the north waters through Sat while dissipating. The trough will persist on Sat and then weaken. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sat, and reach from near 31N71W to South Florida on Sun, then stall through Mon. A weak low pressure may develop along the front at that time. Fresh to strong winds will precede the front on Sat. Mainly fresh northeast to east winds will follow the front through Mon, along with locally rough seas near 31N. The remnants of the front should wash out Tue and Tue night with improving marine conditions through the middle of next week. $$ Ramos --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC020852_C_KWBC_20260502085311_47448518-2427-TWDAT.txt ****0000008037**** AXNT20 KNHC 020852 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat May 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong N-NE winds with frequent gusts to gale-force are over the NW Gulf, including the coastal waters, behind the front, along with building rough seas. By later this morning, expect sustained minimal gale force winds offshore Tampico, Mexico, spreading southward offshore Veracruz by early afternoon, then persisting off Veracruz into Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these sustained gale-force winds. Marine conditions will improve by early Mon with ridging gradually building back over the basin into early Tue. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details, and also consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for details over the coastal waters. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, with an axis near 30W, from 10.5N southward, moving relatively quickly westward at around 20 kt. This wave is encompassed within a thick Saharan Air Layer with significant dry air and an otherwise hostile environment preventing any sort of deep convection near the northern portion of the wave, however scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present south of 04N between 23W and 41W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from inland Africa to near 10N18W. The ITCZ reaches from 03N15W to 00.5N28.5W, where it breaks due to the first tropical wave of the season, continuing west of the wave from 01N33W to the coast of Brazil at 00.5N50W. Other than the convection near and mentioned with the tropical wave above, scattered moderate is noted from 01S to 02N between 45W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a Gale Warning in the western Gulf. As referenced above, a cold front extends from northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico, with fresh to strong winds and frequent gusts to gale-force behind it. Seas are 5-8 ft behind the front to the west of 94W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere behind the front. Some scattered showers are noted on satellite imagery near the boundary, with some thunderstorm activity from SE Louisiana well into the southeastern United States. Fresh SE winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the basin, along with 2-4 ft seas, except 1-3 ft east of 87W. Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting visibility to 3-5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the west and northwest Yucatan coasts in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from near Tampa Bay, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche this evening, then stall and gradually wash out as it reaches from the Florida Keys to the NW Yucatan Peninsula Sun evening. Fresh to strong N-NE winds with frequent gusts to gale-force are over the NW Gulf, including the coastal waters, behind the front, along with building rough seas. By later this morning, expect sustained minimal gale force winds offshore Tampico, Mexico, spreading southward offshore Veracruz by early afternoon, then persisting off Veracruz into Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these sustained gale-force winds. Marine conditions will improve by early Mon with ridging gradually building back over the basin into early Tue. Return flow will dominate Tue night through Wed night, moderate to fresh in the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate in the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1017 mb high pressure in the Atlantic near 26N61W and a 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong trades off northern Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 5-8 ft in these areas. Fresh to locally strong E winds are also ongoing north of Honduras in the vicinity of the Bay Islands and into the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are also 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly trades prevail elsewhere, except gentle in the SW Caribbean south of 11N. Seas are 2-4 ft north of 17N between 78W and 84W, and 4-6 ft across the remainder of the basin. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring across the Nicaragua, Panama, and Costa Rica offshore waters. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean, pulsing to strong speeds at times in the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras with locally rough seas. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel by Mon, stalling and washing out just north of it into the early part of next week. This will slightly and briefly weaken the pressure gradient and winds across the NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A front in the central Atlantic from near 31N59W to 29N68W to 31N74W is losing definition, with some remnant moderate winds near it. A new front is beginning to become evident off the waters of northern Florida with moderate to locally fresh SW winds ahead of it, north of 27N and west of 74W. High pressure of 1017 mb is over the waters south of these fronts, near 26N61W. Moderate E-SE winds are around the high south of 22N and west of 65W to across the waters between the Greater Antilles and through the Bahamas. Seas are 2-4 ft from 22N to 29N west of 65W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere west of 55W. Mainly gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are elsewhere under the high north of 20N and west of 50W. To the east, a pesky dissipating stationary front reaches from an 1009 mb occluded low north of the area at 34N41W through 31N35W to 27N55W. Some remnant 6-8 ft seas are north of this decaying front. 1020 mb high pressure is ahead of the front at 27N23W with a ridge reaching from near the Iberian Peninsula through the high to 20N50W. Winds are mainly gentle right under the ridge. A locally tight pressure gradient is present between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands with fresh to strong winds there. Winds are mainly moderate across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, along with 5-7 ft seas in mainly NW-N swells. For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary from near 31N59W to 29N65W to 31N74W will weaken and shift slightly east today. A cold front to the west, from 31N78.5W to near Daytona Beach, Florida will reach from near 31N72W to South Florida by Sun morning, then stall from 31N61W to 27N74W to the northern Bahamas by early Mon. Weak low pressure may develop along the front at that time, sliding northeastward into early Tue. Fresh to strong winds will precede the front later today. Mainly fresh winds will follow the front through Sun night, increasing to fresh to strong by early Mon into early Tue near the low pressure, and back north of the front. Meanwhile, expect locally rough seas near and fresh to strong winds. The remnants of the front should wash out Wed with improving marine conditions. $$ Lewitsky --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC021628_C_KWBC_20260502162839_49676782-2393-TWDAT.txt ****0000005876**** AXNT20 KNHC 021628 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat May 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1610 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from northern Florida to just south of Tampico, Mexico. Strong to near-gale force NE to N winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, encompass the north-central and western Gulf waters behind the cold front. Satellite altimeter and moored buoy data indicates seas ranging from 8-11 ft. Sustained gale force winds are currently offshore Tampico, Mexico, and will spread southward to offshore Veracruz today, then persist off of Veracruz into Sun morning. Seas will build to 12 ft in strongest winds. Marine conditions will improve by early Mon with ridging gradually building back over the basin into early Tue. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details, and also consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for details over the coastal waters. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 33W, from 12N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern tip of the wave axis, from 01N to 04N between 29W and 33W. Elsewhere, the wave continues to move through hostile dry conditions which inhibit other impacts. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 08N12W to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05S to the equator between 30W and 40W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a Gale Warning for the western Gulf. As referenced above, a cold front extends from northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico, with fresh to strong winds and frequent gusts to gale-force behind it. Scattered moderate convection is along the front, from 26N to 30N east of 87W. Outside of the gale warning, seas range from 5-7 ft behind the front. Ahead of the front, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the cold front from the Big Bend of Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico will reach from SW Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sun morning, then stall and gradually wash out by Mon morning. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will continue behind the front, along with near gale to gale-force N winds close to the coast near Tampico. The gales will slide along the coast near Veracruz today and tonight, before diminishing Sun afternoon. Mon and Tue should see quiescent conditions prevailing across the Gulf. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night and Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1019 mb high pressure in the Atlantic near 26N62W and a 1008 mb low pressure over northern Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia and within the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 6-7 ft in these areas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades prevail across the basin per the latest satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is across the southwestern Caribbean, south of 12N, between 75W and 84W. This includes coastal regions of Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean for the next several days. The SE fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras will diminish on Sun as a weakening cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. After the cold front dissipates near the Yucatan Channel on Mon, expect SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras to increase Tue and Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening frontal boundary from 31N56W to 31N70W continues to lose definition and shower activity. 1019 mb high pressure centered near 26N62W and 1021 mb high pressure centered north of the Canary Islands provide for broad surface ridging across the tropical Atlantic waters. Satellite scatterometer detected light to gentle trade winds across the basin, increasing to moderate speeds south of 10N. Satellite altimeter supports an analysis of 4-7 ft seas across open waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary from near 31N56W to 29N65W to 31N71W will weaken and shift slightly east today. A new, stronger cold front will emerge off of the SE United States coast this afternoon and reach from near 31N72W to the N Bahamas on Sun morning, and from 31N60W to a low forming near the N Bahamas Mon morning. The low will ride along the frontal boundary to be just south of Bermuda Tue morning with the front extending southwestward to the central Bahamas. The front should be dissipating by Wed morning. Expect fresh to strong SW winds south of the front today and Sun, followed by fresh to strong NE winds north of the front on Mon and Tue. Looking ahead, conditions should become quiescent Tue night into Wed. $$ Mahoney ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC022252_C_KWBC_20260502225316_47448518-2471-TWDAT.txt ****0000006169**** AXNT20 KNHC 022252 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun May 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A late-season cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Latest scatterometer data indicate strong to gale force northerly winds in the wake of the front, with the strongest winds in the Tampico area. Satellite altimeter and moored buoy data indicates seas ranging from 8 to 11 ft. The cold front will reach from SW Florida to the Bay of Campeche on Sun morning, then stall and gradually wash out by Mon morning. The gales will slide along the Mexican coast near Veracruz this evening, before diminishing Sun afternoon. Seas will build to 12 or 13 ft in strongest winds. Marine conditions will improve by early Mon, with ridging gradually building back over the basin into early Tue. Currently, a wide band of showers and thunderstorms is related to front over Florida and the NE Gulf. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely within this convective band. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... The first tropical wave of the season is analyzed along 33W, from 12N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern tip of the wave axis S of 04N between 30W and 35W. The wave continues to move through hostile dry conditions which inhibit other impacts. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near 08N12W, then continues SW to near 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to NE Brazil near 02S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 01N between 30W and 43W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a Gale Warning for the western Gulf. As referenced above, a cold front is moving across the Gulf waters and extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico, with strong to gale force winds and rough seas behind it. An active band of showers and thunderstorms is over Florida and the NE Gulf. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for more details. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night and Wed. Another cold front may reach the NW Gulf by Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1019 mb high pressure in the Atlantic located near 25N58W and a 1009 mb low pressure over northern Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere across the basin per the latest satellite scatterometer data. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are within the strongest winds in the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft are observed elsewhere. Convection is flare-up over the Yucatan Peninsula. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is affecting the SW Caribbean, particularly south of 12N, between 75W and 84W. This includes coastal regions of Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely in this area. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean for the next several days. The SE fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras will diminish on Sun as a weakening cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. After the cold front dissipates near the Yucatan Channel on Mon, expect SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras to increase again Tue through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has emerged off of the SE United States coast and extends from a 1005 mb low pressure located N of the area near 34N73W to north-central Florida. A wide band of showers and thunderstorms is related to front. Mainly fresh winds are observed ahead and behind the front N of 27N. High pressure dominates the remainder of the forecast waters, with a 1020 mb center located just W of the Canary Islands, and a 1019 mb center situated near 25N58W. Its associated ridge extends westward reaching the Bahamas, South Florida and the Greater Antilles. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over W Africa is promoting an area of moderate to fresh N winds and moderate to rough seas between W Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trades are seen across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere E of 70W, light to gentle winds are noted. W of 70W and SE of the aforementioned cold front, moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are blowing. Moderate seas dominate the entire forecast region. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will reach from near 31N72W to the N Bahamas on Sun morning, and from 31N60W to a low forming near 27N74W Mon morning. The low will ride along the frontal boundary to be just south of Bermuda Tue morning with the front extending southwestward to the central Bahamas. The front should be dissipating by Wed morning. Expect fresh to strong SW winds south of the front tonight and Sun, followed by fresh to strong NE winds north of the front on Mon and Tue. Looking ahead, conditions should become quiet Tue night through Thu. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################