--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC130359_C_KWBC_20260613040009_32440682-2685-TWDAT.txt ****0000005650**** AXNT20 KNHC 130359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Jun 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic along 18W, south of 14N, based on satellite imagery, total precipitable water and wave diagnostic data. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 13N and east of 27W. Another eastern tropical wave is along 32W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is seen near the trough axis. The tropical wave previously analyzed in the eastern Caribbean has dissipated based on satellite imagery, total precipitable water and wave diagnostic data. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is presently occurring near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N32W. The ITCZ extends from 05N34W to 00N50W. A few showers are seen near the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, especially south of 25N and west of 90W. The tight pressure gradient between this low and a 1017 mb ridge in the NE Gulf sustain fresh to near gale-force SE winds and moderate to locally rough seas south of 26N and west of 88W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, scattered to numerous squalls and thunderstorm continue tonight across the SW Gulf, to the NE of a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche near 19N94W and extending to offshore of Tampico. The low pressure system will shift NW through the weekend and move inland over northeastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Diurnal heating and divergence aloft are sustaining a few showers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of Cuba, Hispaniola and nearby waters. The disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is also producing some shower activity in the Gulf of Honduras. The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the Caribbean waters, supporting fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central and SE Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the NE Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends westward along 28.5N and across Florida and the NE Gulf of America. The ridge will generally remain in place through early next week to support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean through Sun. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the northwestern Caribbean, to the W of 845W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat night. Expect active showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent Yucatan waters through early Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N38W to 28N44W, followed by a surface trough to 30N52W. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 22N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are found north of 14N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a broad ridge extends from the central Atlantic along 25N westward across Florida along 28.5N and across the NE Gulf of America, and will generally remain in place through early next week. Weak low pressure near 31N56W, accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, is shifting NE and out of the forecast waters, and will allow the ridge to reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC131008_C_KWBC_20260613100907_9109880-5702-TWDAT.txt ****0000005851**** AXNT20 KNHC 131008 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Jun 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic along 19W, south of 15N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 09N between 13N and 29W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W-53W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is seen near the trough axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W-79W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is occurring near this wave along the coast of Panama, while scattered moderate to strong convection is seen along the coast and coastal waters of Colombia, in the eastern Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N26W. The ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 05.5N33W, then resumes from 04.5N36W to the coast of Brazil near 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted near Africa from 01N to 05.5N E of 12W. Elsewhere, only a few showers are seen near the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad area of low pressure extending from low to mid levels of the atmosphere continues across the SW Gulf this morning, from the central Bay of Campeche to offshore of NE Mexico, and is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, especially south of 25N and west of 91W. Satellite imagery and local upper air data show strong SE low level winds to 35 kt moving across the Yucatan Peninsula and across the eastern side of this circulation. At the surface, a tight pressure gradient between this low and the Atlantic ridge extending into the NE Gulf sustain fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to locally rough seas to 9 ft south of 26N and west of 88W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the low pressure system will shift NW through the weekend and move inland over northeastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tue and Wed while interacting with a frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, through Sun night. Atlantic high pressure will build westward into the Gulf Tue and Wed to promote moderate to fresh southerly winds basin-wide. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few clusters of moderate convection continue across the NW Caribbean this morning, N of 18N to the south coast of Cuba, and into the approach to the Windward Passage, as divergence aloft sustains this activity. Strong convection across interior portions of the Gulf of Honduras extends from similar activity associated with the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends N of the area and across Florida along about 27N, and supports fresh to near gale- force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central and SE Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the NE Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place through Sun to support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the Gulf of Honduras and northwestern Caribbean W of 85W through Sat night. The ridge will reorganize along 60W Sun night through Mon then shift slowly NE through midweek, leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N37W to 28.5N43W, followed by a surface trough to 30N52W. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that extends across central Florida, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 22N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are found north of 14N an2d east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place through Sun. The ridge will then reorganize along about 60W Sun night and Mon, then shift slowly NE Tue through Wed. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC131805_C_KWBC_20260613180710_9109880-5734-TWDAT.txt ****0000006651**** AXNT20 KNHC 131805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Jun 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W from is in the far eastern Atlantic from 02N to 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm either side of the wave from 04N to 06N. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 02N to 16N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Isolated, mostly light showers are from 07N to 10N between 32W and 36W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 53W south of 19N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. No significant convection is currently occurring with this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 79W south of 18N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated showers are near the axis within 30 nm of 15N79W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N26W where it transitions to the ITCZ extends to 05N35W. It resumes at 05N36W to the Brazil near 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 02N to 06N between 05W-16W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 26W-30W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 26W-28W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A persistent broad area of low pressure present is over the southwestern Gulf just offshore Mexico. Deep convection seen during the morning over the southwestern Gulf has diminished. Latest satellite imagery shows numerous moderate-type convection from 19N to 23N between 92W and 95W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere from 19N to 25N west of 91W. At the surface, a tight pressure gradient between the low pressure area and the Atlantic ridge that extending westward into the north-central Gulf is generally maintaining fresh to strong southeast winds along with moderate to locally rough seas to around 9 ft south of 26N and west of 88W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned broad area of low pressure will move inland northeastern Mexico by early Sun. The system could re-emerge over the NW Gulf on Tue or Wed while interacting with a frontal boundary, however, conditions there are also expected to be only marginally conducive for development. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, through Sun night. Atlantic high pressure will build westward into the Gulf Tue and Wed, with the associated pressure gradient leading to moderate to fresh southerly winds basin-wide. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends westward near 27N to across Florida. The related pressure gradient is generally allowing for fresh to near gale-force trade winds along with moderate in the central and southeastern portions of the Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras as seen in the latest scatterometer data passes. Moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas are elsewhere, except for lighter trades winds of gentle speeds over the waters between Cuba and 20N west of about 75W. Seas are in the 2 to 4 range with these winds. Moderate or lighter winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere across the basin. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are north of 18N between southwestern Haiti and 84W, including the approach to the Windward Passage, as divergence aloft sustains this activity. Strong convection across interior portions of the Gulf of Honduras and over southern Belize is along the southeast periphery of the area of broad low pressure that is in the southwestern Gulf of America. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place through Sun, with its related pressure gradient allowing for a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong southeast winds and rough seas will also persist over the Gulf of Honduras and northwestern Caribbean west of 85W through tonight. The ridge north of the area will reorganize Sun night through Mon then shift slowly northeastward through midweek, leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N36W to 29N41W, then dissipating to 29N43W and trough to 29N47W and to near 31N52W. Isolated rather weak showers are seen from 29N to 30N between 46W and 49W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that extends across central Florida, and that is anchored by a 1026 mb high near 31N30W and a 1022 mb high near 26N58W, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 21N west of 35W along with mostly moderate seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas exist north of about 15N and east of 22W while moderate northeast winds are from 12N to 25N between 22W and 35W. Seas are in the moderate range are in these areas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place through Sun. The ridge will then reorganize along about 60W Sun night and Mon, then shift slowly NE Tue through Wed. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh southwest winds will develop across the northwest waters north of about 29N and west of 74W Sun evening through Tue as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################