--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-20 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC200429_C_KWBC_20260520042948_47448518-3675-TWDAT.txt ****0000004303**** AXNT20 KNHC 200429 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed May 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 61W, south of 16N, and moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of the Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then runs southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1028 mb high pressure system near Bermuda extends westward to the Gulf waters supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas south of 25N and between 88W and 94W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Generally dry conditions are found across the basin, except for a few showers in the nearshore waters of western Florida, Veracruz and Tamaulipas. For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain over the SE United States for the next several days, forcing E to SE winds across the Gulf. Expect moderate to fresh winds over the W Gulf, pulsing to strong Wed night offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Beginning Thu, the pressure gradient will relax and tranquil marine conditions should prevail through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the islands dominates the Caribbean Sea. The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, with the highest winds occurring off NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean into the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will also occur over the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Large E to SE swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters tonight. Looking ahead, there will be a resumption of the fresh to strong trades over the Gulf of Honduras starting Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The interaction between an upper level low near 29N75W and a surface trough in the area results in scattered showers between 70W and 78W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge near Bermuda. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring off northern Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are evident south of 27N and west of 55W. Farther east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N38W and continues southwestward to 27N59W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are present north of 28N and between 27W and 45W. An expansive ridge dominates the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 24N and west of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a deep layer trough E of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered thunderstorms through Thu. SE winds will pulse fresh to strong north of Hispaniola afternoons and evenings into the weekend. Elsewhere, surface ridging north of our waters should cause winds and seas to remain quiescent through the weekend. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC201003_C_KWBC_20260520100350_47448518-3691-TWDAT.txt ****0000004308**** AXNT20 KNHC 201003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed May 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 15N, and moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of the Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then runs southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 150 nm N of the ITCZ from 19W to 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Numerous moderate to isolated scattered moderate convection, generated from outflow boundaries associated with earlier thunderstorms over Texas, is impacting waters within 90 nm of the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. This activity is bringing locally higher winds and seas. A cluster of thunderstorms is also along the coast near Tampico, Mexico. A 1028 mb high pressure system near Bermuda extends westward to the Gulf waters supporting fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 25N and between 88W and 94W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain over the SE United States for the next several days, forcing E to SE winds across the Gulf. Expect moderate to fresh winds over the W Gulf, pulsing to strong tonight offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Beginning Thu, the pressure gradient will relax and tranquil marine conditions should prevail through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the region dominates the Caribbean Sea. The tight pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in strong trade winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7 to 10 ft. Fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident, except in the NW basin, where gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the Windward Passage in associated with a trough N of the Turks and Caicos, and the East Pacific Monsoon Trough is generating scattered convection within 90 nm of the coast of Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean through the weekend, with rough seas continuing. Fresh trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds and seas will prevail ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An elongated deep layer low pressure extending from near 31N75W to N of the Turks and Caicos is generating scattered moderate convection from 22N to 28N between 73W and 80W. The subtropical ridge, centered near Bermuda, dominates most of the rest of the basin, although a weak cold front extends from 31N35W to 26N59W. No significant weather changes are associated with this front, but seas generated from higher winds to the north are impacting waters N of the front, causing seas of 7 to 9 ft N of 30N between 35W and 45W. Elsewhere N of 22N, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. To the S of 22N, moderate to fresh trades dominate with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a trough E of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered thunderstorms into Thu. SE winds will pulse fresh to strong north of Hispaniola afternoons and evenings through the end of the week. Elsewhere, surface ridging north of our waters should cause winds and seas to remain quiescent through the weekend. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC201500_C_KWBC_20260520150052_47448518-3703-TWDAT.txt ****0000004586**** AXNT20 KNHC 201500 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed May 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W, south of 15N, and moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 12N16W and extends southwestward to near 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 150 nm N of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Numerous moderate to isolated scattered moderate convection generated from outflow boundaries associated with earlier thunderstorms over Texas, is impacting waters within 90 nm of the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. This activity is bringing locally higher winds and seas. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the Gulf waters. Gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range over the NE Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the north-central Gulf will change little during the next few days. The pressure gradient between it and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northern Mexico will generally maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow across the basin through the weekend, with the exception of winds pulsing to fresh to strong speeds from the late afternoons and into the night time hours. A series of upper-level disturbances in a very moist and unstable environment is expected to keep unsettled weather conditions in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the NW Gulf for the next few days. Mariners transiting through these waters are advised to be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions with this activity. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high centered near 32N60W and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds over over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range in the south central Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- central portion of the Caribbean through the weekend. These trades will continue to bring rough seas to that portion of the basin. Fresh trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the waters NE of the Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the Bahamas. A cold front extends from 31N32W to 26N54W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the waters S of 25N and west of 60W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range S of 25N and W of 60W, as well as S of 20N and W of 50W. Rough seas follow the cold front mentioned above that has ushered in a set of NW swell. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, a large mid to upper-level low and accompanying surface trough northeast of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the waters roughly between the Bahamas and 70W through at least Thu evening. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rain reducing visibility. Southeast winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings through Fri. Otherwise, high pressure centered just north of the area will maintain rather quite marine conditions through the period. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC202358_C_KWBC_20260520235855_47448518-3734-TWDAT.txt ****0000004776**** AXNT20 KNHC 202358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu May 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from 16N southward into northern Venezuela, and moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the northwestern Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off near the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then curves southwestward to near 06N23W. An ITCZ continues westward from 06N23W to near the coastal border of French Guiana and Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 05N west of 20W, and also up to 190 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A thermal trough across the spine of Florida is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the southwestern coast of Florida. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge across the northern Gulf is supporting mainly gentle southeasterly winds with 2 to 4 ft seas for most of the Gulf, except moderate to locally fresh NE winds just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the ridge will generally maintain a gentle to moderate E to SE wind flow across the Gulf through the weekend, with the exception of winds pulsing to fresh to strong off the northern Yucatan Peninsula from the late afternoons and into the night time hours. A series of upper-level disturbances in a very moist and unstable environment is expected to keep unsettled weather conditions in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern Gulf for the next few days. Mariners transiting through these waters are advised to be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions with this activity. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb Bermuda High and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trade winds at the south-central basin, and in the Gulf of Honduras into next week. Seas at 7 to 10 ft are present at the central basin, while 4 to 6 ft are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh to strong trades along with rough seas over the south-central basin through the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is coupling with an upper-level low to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 23N between 71W and 76W. A cold front curves southwestward from the near the Azores across 30N32W to northeast of the Leeward Islands at 26N58W. Patchy showers are seen along and up to 80 nm south of this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 23N west of 65W. Otherwise, a 1025 Bermuda High is supporting gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells north of 24N between 35W and 65W. To the south from 06N to 24N/23N between 35W and 65W/Lesser Antilles, including the southeast Bahamas, moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate. Gentle to locally moderate NE to E winds and 4 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough and upper-level low will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters between the Bahamas and 70W as well as north of 27N between 72W and 76W through at least Thu evening. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rain reducing visibility. SE winds will pulse fresh to strong north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings through the next few days. Otherwise, the large dome of Bermuda High will maintain rather quite marine conditions through the period. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################