--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC040421_C_KWBC_20261004042213_31523192-5491-TWDAT.txt ****0000005517**** AXNT20 KNHC 040421 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 46W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave axis from 07N to 19N between 44W and 54W. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 78W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over the south-central Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and continues southwestward to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 07N45W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough mainly E of 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper-level low spinning over the Bay of Campeche supports scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Gulf region. This system is also enhancing convection over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. A surface trough is analyzed over the western Gulf and runs from SE Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between this trough and a ridge over the western Atlantic and Florida is allowing for mostly fresh southeast winds to exist E of the trough axis. Light to gentle winds are occurring west of the trough axis. Seas are generally moderate, except in the Bay of Campeche where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will follow a weak frontal boundary that will drift into the far NW Gulf off the Texas coast tonight, then along the Mexican coast to Veracruz through Tue. A ridge will extend from the western Atlantic into north Florida through late Sun, supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds and 4-6 ft across much of the central and eastern Gulf. Looking ahead, this ridge will shift southeastward into midweek ahead of the slowly moving front, which will stall over the northern Gulf by mid week. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas will persist north of the front, with fresh to strong NW to N winds possible off Veracruz through the early part of the week. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through the latter part of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are affecting the Greater Antilles, the Cayman Islands, and parts of the NW Caribbean under a diffluent pattern aloft. Weak ridging over the western Atlantic supports moderate E to SE winds across all but the far southwest Caribbean with moderate seas. For the forecast, Weak ridging over the western Atlantic will support moderate E to SE winds across all but the far southwest Caribbean through the early part of the week, with fresh winds pulsing off Colombia and the Gulf of Honduras at night. These winds and associated seas will diminish by midweek, as the high pressure shifts eastward, although fresh winds may continue to pulse over the Gulf of Honduras through Fri. Otherwise, gust to gale force winds associated with clusters of deep convection offshore Colombia are forecast to diminish by late Sun morning as the convection dissipates. Of note, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms are possible across Hispaniola the remainder of the weekend, mainly over Haiti and western Hispaniola. A mid-upper level trough will deepen toward Hispaniola and develop a closed circulation near the island by Sun. This, combined with available moisture and local effects as daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting, will likely increase the chances of rain in the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low located N of Hispaniola is generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. This convective activity is more concentrated south of 27N between 61W and 71W. A surface trough is analyzed in this area, and extends from 27N64W to 20N68W. To the E, another trough is analyzed from 31N58W to 26N61W with no significant convection. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere, anchored by a few high pressure centers N of the area. Light to gentle winds are NE of the Bahamas while moderate easterly winds are evident between the Bahamas and Cuba, and in the Straits of Florida. Fresh NE winds offshore Western Sahara and southern Morocco, including between the Canary Islands. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within these wind speeds. Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds prevail with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the weak ridge will shift eastward through Mon ahead of a cold front that will stall off the NE Florida coast Tue. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas may follow the front, but stay over the coastal waters off far NE Florida through mid week. Gentle to moderate and slight seas will persist elsewhere. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC041050_C_KWBC_20261004105016_31523192-5518-TWDAT.txt ****0000005070**** AXNT20 KNHC 041050 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 49W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extend from 08N to 20N between 42W and 60W. A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean with axis along 80W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 20N between 70W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 10N22W to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N30W to 07N45W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 13W and 31W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Middle to upper level diffluent flow and moisture inflow by SE flow from the Caribbean continue to fuel scattered heavy showers and tstms along the E Mexico offshores and over the NW Gulf behind a pre-frontal surface trough that extends from 29N91W to just NE of Tampico, Mexico. Similar shower activity is ongoing over the NE Gulf offshore waters. Moderate to fresh NNE winds and moderate seas are behind the trough. Ahead of the trough, a weaker pressure gradient support gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will follow a trough along the E Mexican coast to Veracruz through Tue. A ridge will extend from the western Atlantic into north Florida through today, supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas across much of the central and eastern Gulf. Looking ahead, this ridge will shift SE into midweek ahead of a slowly moving front, which will stall over the northern Gulf by midweek. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are forecast N of the front, with fresh to strong NW to N winds possible off Veracruz through the early part of the week. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through the latter part of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are across the NW and central Caribbean waters while moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are moderate over the central basin and slight elsewhere. An upper level low to the NE of Hispaniola continue to support scattered heavy showers over the Dominican Republic adjacent waters and southern Haiti. Otherwise, upper level diffluent flow and a tropical wave support similar shower activity over the central basin and the lee side of Cuba adjacent waters. For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central Caribbean through Tue morning, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh winds will prevail through Thu night, and offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh to strong will pulse at night through Mon. Afterward, a cold front will move across the waters N of the region, further lowering the pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin. Otherwise, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms are possible across Hispaniola today, mainly over Haiti and western Hispaniola. Available moisture and local effects as daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting, will likely increase the chances of rain in the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high NNE of Bermuda and a 1024 mb high W of the Azores near 39N45W extends across the subtropical Atlantic waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas, except for moderate to fresh NE winds near the Canary Islands. There is a weakeness in the ridge being analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 31N58W to the Dominican Republic adjacent waters where an upper level low is supporting a cluster of heavy showers and tstms. Winds and seas are likely higher in this area of convection. For the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western Atlantic across Bermuda to the Carolinas will shift eastward through Mon ahead of a cold front that will briefly stall off the NE Florida coast before it merges with a trailing cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front, but stay over the NE coastal and offshore waters of NE Florida through Wed. Gentle to moderate and slight seas will persist elsewhere. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################