--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC210457_C_KWBC_20260621045757_32440682-3434-TWDAT.txt ****0000005490**** AXNT20 KNHC 210457 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Jun 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W from 02N to 15N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 08N between 23W and 30W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from 01N to 16N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen along 40W in the immediate vicinity of the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W south of 19N. Decaying showers and thunderstorms are seen between the wave axis and the Lesser Antilles. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81.5W south of 18N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. This wave is interacting with an upper- level low, with scattered moderate convection occurring S of 20N between 80W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic ocean near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 06N25W to 08N37W to 05N44W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N51W. Convection is described in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure ridging stretches westward from the western Atlantic to across Florida and to the central Gulf, reinforced by a 1016 mb high in the eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico has induced moderate to fresh SE winds west of 87W, with 3-6 ft seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along with seas 1 to 4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along a surface trough analyzed offshore the Texas coast. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the NE Gulf. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will maintain mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf through late Mon night before diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Slight to moderate seas will be with these winds. Light winds along with slight seas will be over the eastern Gulf through Thu night as a new high center becomes situated over the central Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for convection across the basin. The subtropical ridge extends north of the area over the western Atlantic. The pattern between this ridge and tropical waves over the eastern and western Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, where seas are 7-10 ft. Recent scatterometer data indicated winds near gale-force in the south-central Caribbean closer to the Colombian coast. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere, with 5-7 ft seas, except for gentle SE winds 3-5 ft over the far northwestern Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the area into next week. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly well into the upcoming week. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of the Caribbean through the middle portion of next week. A tropical wave in the far eastern Caribbean will move through the eastern through late Mon, and across the rest of the basin through late Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected near the wave. Another tropical wave located over the western Caribbean is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters west of 80W, and quickly moving westward. This wave will move inland Central America late tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical ridge extends across the entire Atlantic north of 20N, anchored by a 1023 mb high near 27N54W. The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across much of the Atlantic S of 20N. Gentle breezes prevail north of 20N, with 2-5 ft seas in a broad mix of swell. Upper jet dynamics are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along 30N between 65W and the SE US Coast. Another area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is being supported mainly by upper jet dynamics east and NE of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak high pressure ridge along 26N will shift slightly south on Sun, and change little through Thu night as surface troughing lingers near and offshore Florida. Moderate to fresh trade winds will pulse to strong south of 22N through Tue, then be at mostly fresh speeds through the rest of the forecast period. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC211056_C_KWBC_20260621105701_32440682-3451-TWDAT.txt ****0000008047**** AXNT20 KNHC 211056 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Jun 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 27W from 03N to 16N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This well- defined in satellite imagery, with a atmospheric moisture maximum as noted on Total Precipitable Water (MIMIC-TPW) animation imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 24W and 30W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 02N to 17N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 08N to 10N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 64W/65W south of 19N to inland Venezuela. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are east of the axis in the vicinity of the Windward Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are well inland Venezuela within 180 nm east of the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave moved inland Central America near 87W south of south of 19N. It is moving westward near 20 kt. An upper level low just to the west of the wave is helping to sustain scattered moderate to isolated strong convection east of the northern portion of the wave from along the eastern coast of Honduras north to 19N between the wave and 83W. For future information on this wave, please see the eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP). ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic ocean near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 06N25W and westward to 07N35W to 07N41W and to 06N44W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of South America near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 30W-35W, and within 120 nm north of the trough between 38W-41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure ridging stretches westward from the western Atlantic to across Florida and to the central Gulf, reinforced by a 1016 mb high in the eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico has induced moderate to fresh southeast winds west of about 88W along with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is just inland the coast of Mexico from 20N to 26N supported mainly by a mid- level low feature and a nearby surface trough. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are over extreme southeast Texas. For the forecast, the high pressure will change little through much of the week. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will maintain mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf through late Mon night before diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Slight to moderate seas will be with these winds. Light winds along with slight seas will be over the eastern Gulf through Thu night as a new high center becomes situated over the central Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for convection across the basin. Broad high pressure is north of the basin over central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in northern South America will continue to generally allow for fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and also the western Caribbean south of 19N through Mon. Seas over the south-central basin waters are 7 to 11 ft as confirmed by recent satellite altimeter passes and a few buoy observations. Seas are 4 to 6 ft south of 19N west of 80W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, except for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft over the waters south of Cuba to 19N. An area of scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is confined to the southwestern section of the sea south of 12N and west of 78W to inland Panama, primarily due to the eastern segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough that reaches into that part of the basin. For the forecast, the high pressure will prevail north of the area into next week. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period. The trade winds are expected to increase to near gale force across the central portion of the basin over a large area south of 15N, including along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela starting Mon night through Tue night as Atlantic high pressure shifts southeastward. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly well into the upcoming week. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of the Caribbean through the middle portion of next week. A tropical wave currently in the eastern Caribbean near 65W will move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean this morning, and across the rest of the basin through late Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly east of the wave. A tropical wave has moved inland Central America, with trailing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along the coasts of eastern Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua, and extending offshore to near 81W. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad high pressure that is anchored by a 1022 high center at 28N53W. High pressure covers the area north of about 19N. The associated ridge axis near 26N stretches west-southwestward along 25N/26N to South Florida and the Straits of Florida. The related pressure gradient is generally supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across most of the Atlantic south of about 22N as indicated by overnight satellite scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are north of 22N along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in southeast swell west of 55W, except mixed with northwest swell north of 27N between 55W and 74W, and primarily in northwest swell east of 55W. In the eastern part of the area, a stationary front is from 32N30W to near 31N39W. No convection is present with this feature. A trough to its southwest is analyzed from near 31N29W to 28N35W and to 27N39W. Isolated mostly light showers are possible near the trough. Upper-level jet dynamics along the southeast periphery of a broad upper trough along the U.S. east coast are sustaining an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 28N between 70W and 78W. A broad mid to upper-level low has helped to induce an area of multilayer clouds with embedded patches of rain and scattered showers over the waters northeast of the Lesser Antilles, roughly from 17N to 27N between 50W and 58W. For the forecast west of 55W, the weak ridge along 25N/26N will shift slightly south today, and change little through Thu night as surface troughing lingers near and offshore Florida. Moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N will pulse to strong speeds between the Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola through the forecast period. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC211108_C_KWBC_20260621110901_32440682-3453-TWDAT.txt ****0000008051**** AXNT20 KNHC 211108 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Jun 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 27W from 03N to 16N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This well- defined in satellite imagery, with a atmospheric moisture maximum as noted on Total Precipitable Water (MIMIC-TPW) animation imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 07N between 24W and 30W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 02N to 17N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 08N to 10N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 64W/65W south of 19N to inland Venezuela. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are east of the axis in the vicinity of the Windward Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are well inland Venezuela within 180 nm east of the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical has wave moved inland Central America near 87W south of south of 19N. It is moving westward near 20 kt. An upper level low near the Yucatan Peninsula is helping to sustain scattered moderate to isolated strong convection east of the northern portion of the wave from along the eastern coast of Honduras north to 19N between the wave and 83W. For future information on this wave, please see the eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP). ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic ocean near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 06N25W and westward to 07N35W to 07N41W and to 06N44W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of South America near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 30W-35W, and within 120 nm north of the trough between 38W-41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure ridging stretches westward from the western Atlantic to across Florida and to the central Gulf, reinforced by a 1016 mb high in the eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico has induced moderate to fresh southeast winds west of about 88W along with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is just inland the coast of Mexico from 20N to 26N supported mainly by a mid- level low feature and a nearby surface trough. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are over extreme southeast Texas. For the forecast, the high pressure will change little through much of the week. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will maintain mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf through late Mon night before diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Slight to moderate seas will be with these winds. Light winds along with slight seas will be over the eastern Gulf through Thu night as a new high center becomes situated over the central Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for convection across the basin. Broad high pressure is north of the basin over central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in northern South America will continue to generally allow for fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean and the western Caribbean south of 19N through Mon. Seas over the south-central basin waters are 7 to 11 ft as confirmed by recent satellite altimeter passes and a few buoy observations. Seas are 4 to 6 ft south of 19N west of 80W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, except for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft over the waters south of Cuba to near 19N. An area of scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is confined to the southwestern section of the sea south of 12N and west of 78W to inland Panama, primarily due to the eastern segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough that reaches into that part of the basin. For the forecast, the high pressure will prevail north of the area into next week. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period. The trade winds are expected to increase to near gale force across the central portion of the basin over a large area south of 15N, including along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela starting Mon night through Tue night as Atlantic high pressure shifts southeastward. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly well into the upcoming week. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of the Caribbean through the middle portion of next week. A tropical wave currently in the eastern Caribbean near 65W will move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean this morning, and across the rest of the basin through late Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly east of the wave. A tropical wave has moved inland Central America, with trailing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along the coasts of eastern Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua, and extending offshore to near 81W. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad high pressure that is anchored by a 1022 high center at 28N53W covers the area north of about 19N. The associated ridge axis near 26N stretches west-southwestward along 25N/26N to South Florida and the Straits of Florida. The related pressure gradient is generally supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across most of the Atlantic south of about 22N as indicated by overnight satellite scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are north of 22N along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in southeast swell west of 55W, except mixed with northwest swell north of 27N between 55W and 74W, and primarily in northwest swell east of 55W. In the eastern part of the area, a stationary front is from 32N30W to near 31N39W. No convection is present with this feature. A trough to its southwest is analyzed from near 31N29W to 28N35W and to 27N39W. Isolated mostly light showers are possible near this trough. Upper-level jet dynamics along the southeastern periphery of a broad upper trough that is along the U.S. east coast are sustaining an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 28N between 70W and 78W. A broad mid to upper-level low has helped to induce an area of multilayer clouds with embedded patches of rain and scattered showers over the waters northeast of the Lesser Antilles, roughly from 17N to 27N between 50W and 58W. For the forecast west of 55W, the weak ridge along 25N/26N will shift slightly south today, and change little through Thu night as surface troughing lingers near and offshore Florida. Moderate to fresh trade winds south of 24N will pulse to strong speeds between the Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola through the forecast period. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################