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         TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES        

T1T2: AX
A1A2: NT

Date: 2026-05-05

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Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC050432_C_KWBC_20260505043308_49676782-2539-TWDAT.txt

****0000004357****
AXNT20 KNHC 050432

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Tue May 5 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0430 UTC.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W, S of 

11.5N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is 

discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. 



The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W S of 

18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is

associated with this wave. 



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17.5W, and 

continues southwestward to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W

to 02S43.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is

noted S of 05N between 12.5W and 28.5W, and S of 03N between 34.5W

and 50W. 



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A stationary front extends from western Cuba to the Yucatan 

Peninsula across the Yucatan channel. Gentle to moderate E to SE

winds prevail west of 88W along with seas 2 to 5 ft. Elsewhere,

light to gentle variable winds prevail with seas 1 to 2 ft. A

surface trough over the western Gulf is supporting scattered

moderate convection from 22.5N to 26N and west of 91.5W.



For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipated by Tue. 

Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf 

starting Tue as high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. Winds 

will pulse to fresh to strong from Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico Tue

night into Wed. Similar winds will pulse near the northern 

Yucatan Wed evening. The next cold front is forecast to enter the 

NW Gulf coastal waters Thu morning, quickly stalling Thu evening, 

then retreating back inland Fri as ridging builds back in across 

the basin from the east.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Moderate to fresh trades, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail across the 

eastern and central Caribbean, except for strong winds over the

Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Light and variable 

winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are over the NW Caribbean. Gentle to 

moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High 

and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the

S central Caribbean along with locally rough seas, with similar 

winds in the Gulf of Honduras through the week and into the 

weekend, with moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E

and central Caribbean. The remnants of a frontal boundary 

dissipate by Tue in the far NW basin.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A stationary front extends from 31N61.5W to the Central Bahamas 

and western Cuba. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection

is near the western Bahamas and north of 26N. Moderate to fresh 

NE winds, and seas of 5 to 7 ft, prevail west of the front. 

Farther east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 31N23W. The remainder

of the discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored

by a 1024 mb high centered near 34N46W. The pressure gradient 

between this high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ 

is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 16N 

between 31W and 60W. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft 

range. Gentle to locally moderate winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, 

generally prevail elsewhere. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the front will remain stationary 

into Tue, then the northern portions will shift east as a cold 

front Tue night and Wed. Fresh to locally strong NE winds N of the

front will slowly diminish into mid-week as the boundary weakens,

with quiescent conditions expected Wed and Thu for area waters. A

weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu night and steadily 

move eastward through the end of the week. High pressure ridging 

and a relatively week pressure gradient should prevail by the 

weekend. 



$$

KRV


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