--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-04-25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC250436_C_KWBC_20260425043708_47448518-1900-TWDAT.txt ****0000004820**** AXNT20 KNHC 250436 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07.5N13W and extends to 0.5N23W. The ITCZ continues from 0.5N23W to south of the equator at 24W and to 04S38W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 08S to the equator between 25W and 36W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 01N to 07N between 11W and 17W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Locally fresh NE winds are noted just north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a surface trough develops in the region. Otherwise, weak ridging extends over much of the Gulf, supporting gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds over the basin. Recent buoy and altimeter satellite data show 2 to 4 ft seas prevail over the Gulf. For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extending from southeast to northwest Cuba is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward Passage. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE winds over the Caribbean. Seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail over the basin, as noticed on recent buoy and altimeter satellite data. For the forecast, high pressure situated N of the basin will continue to weaken over the next couple of days as the aforementioned trough lifts NE during the weekend before dissipating on Mon. This weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate winds will reach fresh speeds at night through Wed. Otherwise, winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through mid-week as the pressure gradient builds between a developing trough NE of the southern Bahamas and high pressure W of the Canary Islands extending a ridge SW to the NE Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extending from southeastern Cuba to 22.5N69.5W is supporting scattered moderate convection, mainly off the northern coast of the Dominican Republic. Gusty and erratic winds and building seas can be expected near thunderstorms. Weak ridging is noted to the north of this feature over the Bahamas and off the coast of Florida, supporting moderate or weaker winds and 2 to 4 ft seas. Farther east, an increasing pressure gradient between a 1018 mb high centered near 28N49.5W and cold fronts passing to the north is supporting fresh to strong W winds in the central Atlantic, mainly north of 30N between 50W and 65W. Altimeter and buoy data denote 7 to 9 ft seas in this region. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from 31N36W to 26N48W and moderate N to NW winds are noted to the north. Residual rough seas of 8 to 9 ft prevail in this region. Off the coast of NW Africa, a cold front progressing southward is supporting fresh to strong NW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas east of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh NE winds and locally rough seas to 8 ft are noted farther south to near the Cape Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough from southeast Cuba through the southern Bahamas is forecast to lift NE over the weekend, likely developing a low SE Bahamas on Sat before dissipating on Mon. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas over the NE offshore waters will prevail through Sat evening as a cold front clips the region late Sat into early Sun. A second cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night, extend from 31N70W to South Florida by Mon night, and past Bermuda to 23N67W by Tue evening before dissipating Wed night. $$ ADAMS ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC251006_C_KWBC_20260425100711_47448518-1925-TWDAT.txt ****0000004385**** AXNT20 KNHC 251006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends SW to 03N18W to 00N24W. The ITCZ continues from 00N24W to south of the equator at 30W and to 02S40W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02S to 06N between 00W and 15W, and from 08S to 02N between 22W and 49W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Surface ridging extends over much of the Gulf, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds W of 90W and over the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters. Recent buoy data continue to show 2 to 4 ft seas prevail over the Gulf. Otherwise, dense fog is being reported over the NW and central Gulf waters For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over the SE basin and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail over the basin. For the forecast, high pressure situated N of the basin will continue to weaken over the next couple of days as the trough, currently located NE of Hispaniola and across the Windward Passage lifts NE during the weekend before dissipating on Mon. This weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate winds will reach fresh speeds at night through Wed. Otherwise, winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through mid-week as the pressure gradient builds between a developing trough NE of the southern Bahamas and high pressure W of the Canary Islands extending a ridge SW to the NE Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant moisture across the eastern Bahama Bank, Windward Passage, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico adjacent waters along with a short-wave trough aloft continue to fuel showers and tstms in connection with a surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary that extends from 23N66W and across the Windward Passage. Fresh to locally strong winds in connection to the areas of convection associated with the trough are likely. The remaining subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a pair of 1019 mb highs W of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas are ongoing over the NE offshores in connection with an approaching cold front. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between the W coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are in the deep tropics all the way to the Lesser Antilles offshores. Seas are moderate. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough is forecast to lift NE over the weekend, likely developing a low SE Bahamas today before dissipating on Mon. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas over the NE offshore waters will prevail through this evening as a cold front clips the region late today into early Sun. A second cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night, extend from 31N70W to South Florida by Mon night, and past Bermuda to 23N67W by Tue evening before dissipating Wed night. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC251648_C_KWBC_20260425164917_49676782-1933-TWDAT.txt ****0000004299**** AXNT20 KNHC 251648 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1647 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends SW to 01S28W. The ITCZ continues from 01S28W to 02S40W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02S to 05N east of 17W, and from 06S to 03N between 23W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is depicted north of 27.5N between 85.5W and 89W. Otherwise, a surface ridging extends over the eastern Gulf, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds W of 88W and over the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters along with seas 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light and variable winds prevail along with seas 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Wed night. Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely in a cluster of severe thunderstorms currently located over SE Louisiana and regional waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over the SE basin and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail over the basin. For the forecast, high pressure situated N of the basin will continue to weaken over the next couple of days as a trough, currently located between Cuba and the Bahamas lifts NE this weekend before dissipating on Mon. This weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate winds will reach fresh speeds at night through Wed. Otherwise, winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through mid-week as high pressure builds again N of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, extends from a 1011 mb low pressure located near 24N71W westward to the Straits of Florida. These features are supporting scattered to isolated moderate convection in the vicinity of the low. Fresh to locally strong winds in connection to the areas of convection associated with the low are likely. The remaining subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a pair of 1020 mb highs W of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas are ongoing over the north-central Atlantic in connection with an approaching cold front. Moderate to fresh NE winds are between the W coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands with seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are in the deep tropics all the way to the Lesser Antilles offshores. Seas are moderate across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough and low are forecast to move eastward this weekend before dissipating on Mon. A cold front approaching from the N will bring moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas over the NE offshore waters through tonight. Another cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night, extend from near Bermuda to South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N58W to the NW Bahamas by Tue night before dissipating. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC252018_C_KWBC_20260425201819_49676782-1945-TWDAT.txt ****0000004796**** AXNT20 KNHC 252018 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Apr 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends SW to 01S31W. The ITCZ continues from 01S31W to 01S41W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted south 0f 04N between Africa and Brazil. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is depicted on satellite imagery in the northeast Gulf north of 26N and east of 87W associated with an analyzed outflow boundary. A weak 1004 mb low pressure area is analyzed along a surface trough over the waters offshore Veracruz with little impacts other than localized wind shifts. Otherwise, weak surface ridging extends over the eastern Gulf with a 1013 high pressure center near 28N84W. Light to gentle SE-S winds and 1-2 ft seas are east of 89W, with gentle to moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas west of 89W. For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Thu night. Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely in a cluster of strong thunderstorms currently affecting the waters between the western Florida Panhandle and SE Louisiana. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over the SE basin and in the eastern Gulf of Honduras, locally fresh there per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas of 1-3 ft are between 70W and 85W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere, locally higher near Atlantic passages. For the forecast, a surface trough is located north of the area roughly along 23W between Cuba and the Bahamas. This weather pattern will continue to support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected mainly at night. Otherwise, winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through mid-week as high pressure builds again N of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends from 24N65W westward to the Straits of Florida. This features are supporting nearby scattered to isolated moderate convection. Fresh to locally strong winds in connection to the areas of convection are possible. The remaining subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of broad ridging. A cold front is just north of 31N to the southeast of Bermuda with associated fresh to strong SW-W winds across our waters north of 29N between 52W and 62W. Large associated seas are well ahead of the front, with 7-10 ft likely north of 27N between roughly 43W and 63W. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are offshore northern Morocco north of 29N, as well as from 20N to 24N due to locally tight pressure gradients. Elevated seas of 6-8 ft are in these areas. Mainly gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the waters, locally fresh south of 20N. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 80W, and mainly 4-7 ft in mixed swells across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough in the SW N Atlantic will remain in place through Sun and gradually dissipate by Mon. A cold front approaching from the N will bring moderate to fresh SW to W winds and rough seas over the NE offshore waters through Sun. Another cold front is forecast to enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night, extend from near Bermuda to South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Tue night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front N of 27N. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################