--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC170509_C_KWBC_20261017050951_38011292-5740-TWDAT.txt ****0000008508**** AXNT20 KNHC 170509 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Oct 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across the northwestern Gulf tonight, and extends from Mobile Bay southwestward across coastal portions of SE Louisiana to 27N94.5W then south-southwestward and inland across eastern Mexico near Tuxpan. Scattered moderate showers are along most of the front N of 23N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring wihtin 90 nm of the coast from the front near Tuxpan to the central Bay of Campeche. Strong northerly winds of 20 to 30 kt with frequent gusts above gale-force dominate most of the waters behind the front and W of SE Louisiana. Seas following the front have built to 6 to 10 ft, highest offshore of S Texas. Gale warnings are in effect for the Texas coastal waters through Sat morning. The front is forecast to continue moving southeastward and reach from near Cedar Key, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Sat morning, and from the Straits of Florida to the NW coast of the Yucatan to the central Bay of Campeche by Sun morning. The front is then forecast to move just SE of the basin on Mon, where it will gradually dissipate through Tue night. Strong to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the waters from the north- central Gulf to the SW Gulf near Veracruz tonight, and from the NE Gulf to the central Bay of Campeche by Sat morning. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed that northerly winds across the Mexican waters S of 25N to Veracruz had increased to 30-40 kt. Seas are expected to build very quickly tonight behind the front, reaching 10-14 ft offshore of S Texas in the next few hours, and to 15-20 ft offshore of Mexico by sunrise. Gale-force winds may continue across the Veracruz area waters through early Mon. Strong high pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of the front, promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf, and fresh to strong winds NW to N winds across the SW Gulf waters Sat night through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and extends SW to 09N22W. The ITCZ extends from 07N25W to 11N37W then resumes from 09N40W to the coast of Guyana near 06.5N60W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N E of 21.5W to the African coast, and from 06.5N to 10N between 40W and 50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 04.5N to 12N between 27W and 37W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... See details above about the Gulf of America Gale Warning. Abundant low level moisture has converged over the SE half of the Gulf, ahead of the cold front, where a surface trough lingers along 84W-85W. This moisture is interacting with an upper- level trough over central Gulf along 90W to produce scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms across much of the Gulf E of 90W. Moderate or weaker winds and seas 2 to 4 ft are found east of 90W, while strong to gale-force N winds and building seas follow the cold front. For the forecast, the is forecast to reach from near Cedar Key, Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by early Sat morning, and from the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sun morning. The front will then move just SE of the area on Mon where it will gradually dissipate through Tue night. Strong to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the west-central Gulf tonight, and over the southwest Gulf by Sat morning. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley in the wake of the front, promoting fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf, and fresh to strong winds NW to N winds across the SW Gulf waters Sat night through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant low level moisture is converging across the NW Caribbean and interacting with the upper trough across the central Gulf of America to produce scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection across the NW basin S of 20N to the Gulf of Honduras and W of 81W. A large cluster of strong thunderstorms has developed across SW portions between the SE coast of Nicaragua and 80W. At the surface, the seasonal pressure gradient across the region is leading to moderate to fresh trades across the central basin between 64W and 80W, with strong easterly winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate seas prevail across much of the Caribbean, with rough seas 7 to 8 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, as a cold front moves across the Western Atlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient will relax across the Caribbean basin. Under this weather pattern, expect moderate to fresh winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela with moderate to locally rough seas near the coast of Colombia tonight and Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms will continue to affect the NW Caribbean tonight. Moisture associated with this feature will merge with the cold front moving across the Gulf this weekend. The front will likely reach western Cuba and the entrance to the Yucatan Channel by Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N43W to 26N50W, and then becomes stationary to 25.5N74W. A reinforcing cold front follows to the N of this first front, extending from 31N48W to 30N64.5W to just W of Bermuda. 1024 mb high pressure is centered N of the fronts across the western Atlantic along 56W, and is forcing moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds north of the fronts and E of 70W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NE swell to the north of the fronts and east of 60W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere N of fronts. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail W of 70W and into the coast of Florida, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the SE to central Florida coastal waters W of 78W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across these waters. To the southeast, a surface trough is analyzed from 29N37W to 18N40W with a 1013 mb low along the trough near 23.5N37W. An upper level trough along 50W is providing favorable conditions for Scattered moderate isolated strong convection across this area N of 18N between 30W and 50W. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the low center is driving fresh to strong SE to S winds E of the trough and low to about 31W and between 20N and 27N, where seas are 7 to 8 ft. To the S of these features, a low level easterly wave has a surface trough along 37W-38W, S of 16N. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 04.5N to 12N between 27W and 37W with and E this wave. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas are evident E of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, a pair of weak frontal boundaries across the offshore Atlantic east of 70W will merge, then dissipate through early Sat, ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the coast of northeast Florida by early Sat morning. The front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate into mid week. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front affecting mainly the waters W of 65W through Tue. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC171045_C_KWBC_20261017104532_21889468-5554-TWDAT.txt ****0000005994**** AXNT20 KNHC 171045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Oct 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed gale force NW to N winds off the coast of the Mexican state of Tamaulipas, and reaching southward to almost Tampico. Recent altimeter data over the west-central Gulf along with buoy observations over the northwest Gulf confirm rough to very rough seas follow the front. Frequent gusts to gale force are ongoing elsewhere north of the front this morning. Very dangerous marine conditions are likely along the coast of Veracruz later today, as strong gales out of the NW will funnel along the coast with seas building as high as 25 ft. The gale conditions and very rough seas will subside through late Sun night off Veracruz, but strong winds and rough seas may not subside until mid week. Atlantic Gale Warning: The front is starting to move off the coast of northeast Florida this morning. The front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate into mid week. Frequent gusts to gale force will follow the front Sun over the waters north of 29N and west of 75W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N16n to 08N25W to 09N35W. Scattered moderate convection from 06N to 10N between 15W and 35W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 10N to 13N between 40W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... See details above about the Gulf of America Gale Warning. A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the cold front, reaching from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. Additional showers and thunderstorms are active over the southeast Gulf, ahead of an upper trough extending over the central Gulf. Light to gentle NE winds and 1-3 ft seas are noted over the southeast Gulf, south of the front. For the forecast, the front will reach from Naples, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by this evening, followed by strong gales and very rough seas over the southwest Gulf. The front will slow down as it reaches from the Florida Straits to Merida, Mexico by early Sun, then drift to the southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gales will persist over the far southwest Gulf through late Sun night, with strong NE winds and rough seas elsewhere north of the front. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley behind the front, promoting fresh NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf into mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant low level moisture is converging across the NW Caribbean and interacting with the upper trough across the central Gulf to produce scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection across the northwest Caribbean north of 18N and west of 80W, and between Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti. At the surface, the seasonal pressure gradient across the region is leading to moderate to fresh trades across the south-central basin with steady 20 kt winds off entrance to the Gulf of Venezuela and off Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic. Moderate seas prevail across much of the Caribbean, with rough seas 7 to 8 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, as a cold front moves across the Western Atlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient is relaxing across the basin. This pattern will support moderate to fresh winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela with moderate to locally rough seas near the coast of Colombia today. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean this morning. Moisture associated with this feature will merge with the cold front moving across the Gulf this weekend. The front will likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel by Tue then dissipate. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is starting to move off the northeast Florida coast. Farther east a pair of weak stationary fronts are evident north of 22N between 45W and 75W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active along one of the front near 26N47W. Farther east, a trough is along 37W from 20N to 30N. A few shower and fresh SE winds with 6-7 ft are active within 90 nm east of the trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE breezes and 4-6 ft dominated the remainder of the area. For the forecast west of 55W, the pair of weak frontal boundaries east of 75W will merge then dissipate through today, ahead of a strong cold front that will move off the coast of northeast Florida this morning. The front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate into mid week. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front affecting mainly the waters W of 65W through Tue. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################