--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2024-09-07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC070444_C_KWBC_20240907044517_25165836-6975-TWDAT.txt ****0000007655**** AXNT20 KNHC 070444 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Sep 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extending from N-central Florida across the northern Gulf to a 1006 mb surface low near 27.5N94.5W supports scattered showers and thunderstorms near these features. Isolated moderate to strong convection is occurring in the immediate vicinity of the surface low. Winds of 25 to 30 kt are occurring across the NW Gulf, with locally higher winds associated with convection in the NW quadrant of the surface low, along with seas of 5 to 8 ft across much of the far western Gulf. The front and low will get reinforced by a cold front tonight with winds increasing over the NW Gulf, W-central Gulf and SW Gulf. Winds over the NW Gulf are expected to reach to a NE gale from Sat morning through Sun morning with rapidly building seas to 9-15 ft. A gale warning is in effect for frequent gusts in the NW Gulf and W-central Sat through Sun morning, with a gale warning for sustained winds in effect offshore Veracruz, Mexico Sun through at least Sun night. Very large seas will build across these areas through early next week while the boundaries meander. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 42W from 05N to 20N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 13N and between 36W and 44W. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 59W, from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. An upper level low located well north of the Leeward Islands is interacting with the wave axis, helping to produce scattered moderate convection from 14N to 20N between 54W and 60W. The storm activity will affect the Leeward Islands and eastern Greater Antilles over the next few days as the wave moves westward. The tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula is along 90W from 21.5N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is affecting southern portions of the Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa near 12N16W and continues west-northwestward to 14N25W and then westward to 13N50W. The ITCZ then extends from 13N50W to 15.5N56.5W. In addition to convection associated with the wave along 42W, scattered moderate convection is developing generally along and within 250 nm of the monsoon trough axis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning and stationary front in the NW Gulf of Mexico, and refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere across the Gulf, the weak pressure gradient is resulting in moderate to locally fresh S winds and seas of 2-5 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front extending from N-central Florida across the northern Gulf and the 1006 mb low pressure near 27.5N94.5W will both get reinforced by a cold front tonight with winds increasing over the NW Gulf, W-central Gulf and SW Gulf. A gale warning is in effect for frequent gusts in the NW Gulf and W-central Sat through Sun morning, with a gale warning for sustained winds in effect offshore Veracruz, Mexico Sun through at least Sun night. Very large seas will build across these areas through early next week while the boundaries meander. Meanwhile, a tropical wave is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche Sat, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the SW Gulf of Mexico. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail SE of the features. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the Caribbean Sea through the coast of Costa Rica to northern Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture is interacting with the aforementioned monsoon trough producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in the SW Caribbean, especially south of 16N and west of 75W. Scattered moderate convection is also developing along a line from the Yucatan Channel across Cuba, the Windward Passage, and Hispaniola and then propagating southward into the central and western Caribbean generally north of 17N and west of 72W. A broad subtropical ridge extends into the Caribbean Sea, supporting gentle to moderate E trade winds across much of the basin, with the exception of the Windward Passage where moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring per recent scatterometer data. Seas across much of the Caribbean are 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the E extension of the Pacific monsoon trough will continue to affect the SW basin through at least Sat night. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles Sat, then through the Caribbean into early next week with locally squally weather. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the S-central Caribbean and offshore eastern Honduras, locally strong there Sun evening. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from an intensifying storm in the NW Atlantic to NE Florida, resulting in scattered moderate convection across the waters off NE Florida north of 28N and west of 77W. Farther southeast, a large upper level low is found north of the Leeward Islands producing a few showers south of 25N and between 53W and 66W. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned just north of the Azores. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail over much of the basin, supporting seas of 4-7 ft. However, per recent scatterometer data, an area of moderate to fresh E winds is occurring north of the Lesser Antilles from 18N to 23N between 55W and 65W, likely associated with the tropical wave passing through the region. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through at least tonight in association with a stationary front offshore of the Florida- Georgia border. Winds may be locally fresh SE of the boundary. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through Sat night. Looking ahead, a cold front should emerge off of the SE United States to the waters E of NE Florida late Mon into Tue with increasing winds and building seas behind it. Afterward, the front is forecast to stall near 30N through the middle of the week. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC070559_C_KWBC_20240907055917_25165836-6981-TWDAT.txt ****0000008179**** AXNT20 KNHC 070559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Sep 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Wave Over the Yucatan Peninsula: A tropical wave is currently located over the Yucatan Peninsula, with axis along 90W from 21.5N southward across far southeastern Mexico and Guatemala into the Eastern Pacific near 08N90W. The wave is moving WNW at around 10 kt. Scattered strong convection is occurring over the Bay of Campeche out ahead of this wave, up to 230 nm west of the wave axis. This wave has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extending from N-central Florida across the northern Gulf to a 1006 mb surface low near 27.5N94.5W supports scattered showers and thunderstorms near these features. Isolated moderate to strong convection is occurring in the immediate vicinity of the surface low. Winds of 25 to 30 kt are occurring across the NW Gulf, with locally higher winds associated with convection in the NW quadrant of the surface low, along with seas of 5 to 8 ft across much of the far western Gulf. The front and low will get reinforced by a cold front tonight with winds increasing over the NW Gulf, W-central Gulf and SW Gulf. Winds over the NW Gulf are expected to reach to a NE gale from Sat morning through Sun morning with rapidly building seas to 9-15 ft. A gale warning is in effect for frequent gusts in the NW Gulf and W-central Sat through Sun morning, with a gale warning for sustained winds in effect offshore Veracruz, Mexico Sun through at least Sun night. Very large seas will build across these areas through early next week while the boundaries meander. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the wave entering the southwestern Gulf/Bay of Campeche. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 59W, from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. An upper level low located well north of the Leeward Islands is interacting with the wave axis, helping to produce scattered moderate convection from 14N to 20N between 54W and 60W. The storm activity will affect the Leeward Islands and eastern Greater Antilles over the next few days as the wave moves westward. The tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula is along 90W from 21.5N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is affecting southern portions of the Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa near 12N16W and continues west-northwestward to 14N25W and then westward to 13N50W. The ITCZ then extends from 13N50W to 15.5N56.5W. In addition to convection associated with the wave along 42W, scattered moderate convection is developing generally along and within 250 nm of the monsoon trough axis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning and stationary front in the NW Gulf of Mexico, and refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere across the Gulf, the weak pressure gradient is resulting in moderate to locally fresh S winds and seas of 2-5 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front extending from N-central Florida across the northern Gulf and the 1006 mb low pressure near 27.5N94.5W will both get reinforced by a cold front tonight with winds increasing over the NW Gulf, W-central Gulf and SW Gulf. A gale warning is in effect for frequent gusts in the NW Gulf and W-central Sat through Sun morning, with a gale warning for sustained winds in effect offshore Veracruz, Mexico Sun through at least Sun night. Very large seas will build across these areas through early next week while the boundaries meander. Meanwhile, a tropical wave is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche Sat, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the SW Gulf of Mexico. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail SE of the features. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the Caribbean Sea through the coast of Costa Rica to northern Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture is interacting with the aforementioned monsoon trough producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in the SW Caribbean, especially south of 16N and west of 75W. Scattered moderate convection is also developing along a line from the Yucatan Channel across Cuba, the Windward Passage, and Hispaniola and then propagating southward into the central and western Caribbean generally north of 17N and west of 72W. A broad subtropical ridge extends into the Caribbean Sea, supporting gentle to moderate E trade winds across much of the basin, with the exception of the Windward Passage where moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring per recent scatterometer data. Seas across much of the Caribbean are 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the E extension of the Pacific monsoon trough will continue to affect the SW basin through at least Sat night. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles Sat, then through the Caribbean into early next week with locally squally weather. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the S-central Caribbean and offshore eastern Honduras, locally strong there Sun evening. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from an intensifying storm in the NW Atlantic to NE Florida, resulting in scattered moderate convection across the waters off NE Florida north of 28N and west of 77W. Farther southeast, a large upper level low is found north of the Leeward Islands producing a few showers south of 25N and between 53W and 66W. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned just north of the Azores. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail over much of the basin, supporting seas of 4-7 ft. However, per recent scatterometer data, an area of moderate to fresh E winds is occurring north of the Lesser Antilles from 18N to 23N between 55W and 65W, likely associated with the tropical wave passing through the region. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through at least tonight in association with a stationary front offshore of the Florida- Georgia border. Winds may be locally fresh SE of the boundary. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through Sat night. Looking ahead, a cold front should emerge off of the SE United States to the waters E of NE Florida late Mon into Tue with increasing winds and building seas behind it. Afterward, the front is forecast to stall near 30N through the middle of the week. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC070806_C_KWBC_20240907080719_25165836-6997-TWDAT.txt ****0000007244**** AXNT20 KNHC 070806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Sep 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Wave Over the Yucatan Peninsula: A tropical wave is currently located near the SW Gulf coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, with axis along 91W from 22N southward across far southeastern Mexico and portions of western Guatemala into the Eastern Pacific near 14N91W. The wave is moving WNW at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is occurring over the Bay of Campeche out ahead of this wave, up to 210 nm W of the wave axis. This wave has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extending from N-central Florida to across the northern Gulf to 1004 mb low pressure near 27N94W supports scattered showers and thunderstorms near these features. The front and low will get reinforced by a cold front today with winds increasing over the NW Gulf, W-central Gulf and SW Gulf. A gale warning is in effect for frequent gusts in the NW Gulf and W-central through Sun morning, with a gale warning for sustained winds in effect offshore Veracruz, Mexico late tonight through at least Sun night. Very large seas will build across these areas through early next week while the boundaries meander, rapidly building to 9-15 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the wave entering the southwestern Gulf/Bay of Campeche. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 42W/42W, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave in the Tropical N Atlantic is along 60W, from 22N southward to Guyana, moving westward at around 10 kt. An upper level low located well north of the Leeward Islands is interacting with the wave axis, helping to produce widely scattered moderate convection from 12.5N to 25N between 54W and 61W. This weather activity will affect the Leeward Islands and eastern Greater Antilles over the next few days as the wave moves westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa near 13N17W and continues west-northwestward to 14N27W and then west-southwestward to 12N49W. The ITCZ then extends from 12N49W to 14N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm south of the monsoon trough between Africa and 41W, and within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 27W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in the NW Gulf associated with low pressure along a stationary front, and for details on a Tropical Wave in the process of emerging in the Bay of Campeche from the Yucatan Peninsula with a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation. Elsewhere across the Gulf, the weak pressure gradient is resulting in gentle to moderate mainly SE to S winds, locally fresh SE of the low and also near the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 2 to 5 ft SE of the front. For the forecast, other than the gale warnings and low pressure area, as well as the tropical wave with tropical cyclone formation potential, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail SE of the features. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the Caribbean Sea through the coast of Costa Rica to northern Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture is interacting with the aforementioned monsoon trough producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in the SW Caribbean, especially S of 16N and west of 77W. Scattered moderate convection is also from near the approach to the Windward Passage to between Cuba and Jamaica, and over portions of western Haiti. Similar convection is noted in the Gulf of Honduras. A broad subtropical ridge extends into the Caribbean Sea, supporting moderate to locally fresh winds in the Central Caribbean and in the NW Caribbean N of the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere in the basin. Seas across the Caribbean are 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the E extension of the Pacific monsoon trough will continue to affect the SW basin through at least tonight. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles today, then through the Caribbean into early next week with locally squally weather. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the S-central Caribbean and offshore eastern Honduras, locally strong there Sun evening. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from an intensifying storm in the NW Atlantic to NE Florida, resulting in scattered moderate convection across the waters off NE Florida N of 28N and W of 77W. Fresh SW winds are near 31N between 77W and 80W. Farther southeast, a large upper level low is found N of the Leeward Islands producing a few showers S of 25N and between 57W and 66W. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned just north of the Azores. Fresh winds are noted near a tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles from 17N to 22N between 55W and 65W, with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through at least today in association with a stationary front offshore of the Florida-Georgia border. Winds may be locally fresh SE of the boundary with gale conditions N of 31N. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through tonight. Looking ahead, a cold front should emerge off of the SE United States to the waters E of NE Florida late Mon into Tue with increasing winds and building seas behind it. Afterward, the front is forecast to stall near 30N/31N through the middle of the week. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC070916_C_KWBC_20240907091719_8192018-6458-TWDAT.txt ****0000007244**** AXNT20 KNHC 070916 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Sep 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Wave Over the Yucatan Peninsula: A tropical wave is currently located near the SW Gulf coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, with axis along 91W from 22N southward across far southeastern Mexico and portions of western Guatemala into the Eastern Pacific near 14N91W. The wave is moving WNW at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is occurring over the Bay of Campeche out ahead of this wave, up to 210 nm W of the wave axis. This wave has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extending from N-central Florida to across the northern Gulf to 1004 mb low pressure near 27N94W supports scattered showers and thunderstorms near these features. The front and low will get reinforced by a cold front today with winds increasing over the NW Gulf, W-central Gulf and SW Gulf. A gale warning is in effect for frequent gusts in the NW Gulf and W-central through Sun morning, with a gale warning for sustained winds in effect offshore Veracruz, Mexico late tonight through at least Sun night. Very large seas will build across these areas through early next week while the boundaries meander, rapidly building to 9-15 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the wave entering the southwestern Gulf/Bay of Campeche. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 42W/42W, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave in the Tropical N Atlantic is along 60W, from 22N southward to Guyana, moving westward at around 10 kt. An upper level low located well north of the Leeward Islands is interacting with the wave axis, helping to produce widely scattered moderate convection from 12.5N to 25N between 54W and 61W. This weather activity will affect the Leeward Islands and eastern Greater Antilles over the next few days as the wave moves westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa near 13N17W and continues west-northwestward to 14N27W and then west-southwestward to 12N49W. The ITCZ then extends from 12N49W to 14N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm south of the monsoon trough between Africa and 41W, and within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 27W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in the NW Gulf associated with low pressure along a stationary front, and for details on a Tropical Wave in the process of emerging in the Bay of Campeche from the Yucatan Peninsula with a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation. Elsewhere across the Gulf, the weak pressure gradient is resulting in gentle to moderate mainly SE to S winds, locally fresh SE of the low and also near the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 2 to 5 ft SE of the front. For the forecast, other than the gale warnings and low pressure area, as well as the tropical wave with tropical cyclone formation potential, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail SE of the features. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the Caribbean Sea through the coast of Costa Rica to northern Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture is interacting with the aforementioned monsoon trough producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in the SW Caribbean, especially S of 16N and west of 77W. Scattered moderate convection is also from near the approach to the Windward Passage to between Cuba and Jamaica, and over portions of western Haiti. Similar convection is noted in the Gulf of Honduras. A broad subtropical ridge extends into the Caribbean Sea, supporting moderate to locally fresh winds in the Central Caribbean and in the NW Caribbean N of the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere in the basin. Seas across the Caribbean are 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the E extension of the Pacific monsoon trough will continue to affect the SW basin through at least tonight. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles today, then through the Caribbean into early next week with locally squally weather. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the S-central Caribbean and offshore eastern Honduras, locally strong there Sun evening. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from an intensifying storm in the NW Atlantic to NE Florida, resulting in scattered moderate convection across the waters off NE Florida N of 28N and W of 77W. Fresh SW winds are near 31N between 77W and 80W. Farther southeast, a large upper level low is found N of the Leeward Islands producing a few showers S of 25N and between 57W and 66W. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned just north of the Azores. Fresh winds are noted near a tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles from 17N to 22N between 55W and 65W, with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through at least today in association with a stationary front offshore of the Florida-Georgia border. Winds may be locally fresh SE of the boundary with gale conditions N of 31N. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through tonight. Looking ahead, a cold front should emerge off of the SE United States to the waters E of NE Florida late Mon into Tue with increasing winds and building seas behind it. Afterward, the front is forecast to stall near 30N/31N through the middle of the week. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC071755_C_KWBC_20240907175621_8192018-6496-TWDAT.txt ****0000006338**** AXNT20 KNHC 071755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Sep 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Wave Over the Yucatan Peninsula: A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche along 92W, south of 23N, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N to 20N between 91W and 94W, including inland over Mexico. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop while the wave interacts with a frontal boundary during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward to northward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This wave has a MEDIUM chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1500 UTC, a stationary front extends from 29N83W near Cedar Key, FL, to 1004 mb low pressure centered in the NW Gulf near 27N94W. A recently formed stationary front extends south and west from the low to the coast of Veracruz, Mexico near 20N97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 18N to 25N between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N to 29N between 87W and 94W. N to NE winds of 20-30 kt, with frequent gusts to 40 kt, and 8-11 ft seas are ongoing in the NW Gulf waters. A reinforcing cold front will move off the Texas Gulf Coast this afternoon, increasing the area of high winds across the western Gulf and building seas to 9-13 ft. Sustained gale force winds are forecast to begin offshore Veracruz, Mexico late tonight and continue through at least Sun night. Very large seas will build to 9-15 ft across these areas through early next week while the frontal system lingers in the Gulf waters. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is nearly stationary along 42W, from 19N southward. 1012 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 12N42W. Convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave in the Tropical N Atlantic is along 62W, from 22N southward to eastern Venezuela, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic just south of Dakar, Senegal, near 14N17W and continues through aforementioned low pressure near 12N42W to 12N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 31W and 45W. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a TROPICAL WAVE in the Bay of Campeche and an ongoing GALE WARNING. East of 90W, away from the influence of the GALE WARNING and TROPICAL WAVE, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, aside from the waters impacted by all of the SPECIAL FEATURES, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on a TROPICAL WAVE in the E Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection, likely enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 14N between 75W and 83W. A weak subtropical ridge allows for mainly light to gentle trades across the Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas. Satellite scatterometer data from this morning indicates trades are reaching moderate speeds in the central Caribbean. For the forecast, heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the E extension of the Pacific monsoon trough will continue to affect the SW basin through this evening. A tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles will reach Hispaniola by Sun evening and then continue to move across the central and western Caribbean through mid week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the S-central Caribbean and offshore eastern Honduras, locally strong there Sun evening. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from an intensifying low pressure in the NW Atlantic to NE Florida, resulting in scattered showers in the far NW discussion waters. The remainder of the Atlantic is characterized by a weak subtropical ridge, which allows for only light to gentle trades and 4-6 ft seas across the basin. Trades may reach locally moderate speeds north of the Leeward Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers will continue across the northern and central Florida offshore waters through this evening in association with a stationary front across northern Florida. Winds may be locally fresh SE of the boundary with gale conditions N of 31N. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through tonight. Looking ahead, a cold front should emerge off of the SE United States to the waters E of NE Florida late Mon into Tue with increasing winds and building seas behind it. Afterward, the front is forecast to stall near 30N/31N through the middle of the week. $$ Mahoney ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC072346_C_KWBC_20240907234723_8192018-6523-TWDAT.txt ****0000006577**** AXNT20 KNHC 072346 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Sep 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Wave Over the Yucatan Peninsula: A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche along 93W, south of 24N, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N to 20N between 93W and 96W, including inland over Mexico. The system is forecast to drift slowly northward for a couple of days while it interacts with a frontal boundary. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves generally northward near or along the Mexican and Texas Gulf coastline. This wave has a MEDIUM chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours, and a HIGH chance in the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1800 UTC, a stationary front extends from 29N83W near Cedar Key, FL, to 1004 mb low pressure centered in the NW Gulf near 27N94W. A recently formed stationary front extends south and west from the low to the coast of Veracruz, Mexico near 20N97W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 25N to 29N between 87W and 94W. Isolated convection is occurring from 20N to 25N between 94W and 98W. N to NE winds of 20-30 kt, with frequent gusts to 40 kt are occurring. A reinforcing cold front has moved off the Texas Gulf Coast, increasing the area of high winds across the western Gulf and building seas to 9-15 ft. Sustained gale force winds are forecast to begin offshore Veracruz, Mexico late tonight and continue through at least Sun night. Very large seas will build to 10-16 ft across these areas through early next week while the frontal system lingers in the Gulf waters. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is nearly stationary along 42W, from 19N southward. 1010 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 12N42W. Convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave in the Tropical N Atlantic is along 63W, from 21N southward to eastern Venezuela, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic just south of Dakar, Senegal, near 14N17W and continues through aforementioned low pressure near 12N42W to 11N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 23W and 29W, and from 10N to 15N between 34W and 46W. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a TROPICAL WAVE in the Bay of Campeche and an ongoing GALE WARNING. East of 90W, away from the influence of the GALE WARNING and TROPICAL WAVE, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 2-5 ft seas are noted. For the forecast, aside from the waters impacted by all of the SPECIAL FEATURES, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on a TROPICAL WAVE in the E Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection, likely enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 11N between 78W and 83W. A weak subtropical ridge allows for mainly gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean, and 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the E extension of the Pacific monsoon trough will continue to affect the SW basin this evening. A tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles will reach Hispaniola by Sun evening and then continue to move across the central and western Caribbean through mid-week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean and offshore eastern Honduras, locally strong there Sun evening. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will occur elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from an intensifying low pressure in the NW Atlantic to NE Florida, resulting in scattered showers in this region. The remainder of the Atlantic is characterized by a weak subtropical ridge, which allows for gentle to moderate trades and 4-6 ft seas across the basin. Trades may reach locally fresh speeds north of the Leeward Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers will continue across the northern and central Florida offshore waters through this evening in association with a stationary front across northern Florida. Winds may be locally fresh SE of the boundary with gale conditions N of 31N. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through tonight. A cold front should emerge off of the SE United States to the waters E of NE Florida late Mon into Tue with increasing winds and building seas behind it. Afterward, the front is forecast to stall near 30N/31N through the middle of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic could see gradual development while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic through Monday and then moves generally westward at about 10 mph through the rest of next week. There is a LOW chance of development in the next 48 hours, and a MEDIUM chance of development in the next 7 days. $$ ADAMS ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################