--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC120414_C_KWBC_20260812041542_49676782-822-TWDAT.txt ****0000006594**** AXNT20 KNHC 120414 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Aug 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Invest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization along a tropical wave located along 38W, around 700 nm SW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development over the next few days and a tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days will the system moves W to WNW at 10 to 15 kt across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance for tropical formation in the next 48 hours and a high chance of development over the next 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is emerging off the African coast along 18W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of this wave from 10N to 13N between 18W and 23W. See the Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave, Invest AL92, that is likely to develop into a tropical depression. The axis of a tropical wave is near 57W extending southward from 18N, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 56W and 60W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W S of 22N, crossing portions of Hispaniola, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is confined to waters within about 90 nm of the coast of Hispaniola. The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W, S of 21N, extending through the Gulf of Honduras southward into the far eastern Pacific, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 20N and W of 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W and continues southwestward to 1012 mb low pres near 11N32.5W to 11N52W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 13N and east of 21W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 28N84W. A surface trough has moved westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and is inducing scattered moderate convection in the central Bay of Campeche. Light winds and slight seas encompass the NE basin closest to the high, with gentle to moderate SE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends westward across the northern Gulf, and will change little through Sat before weakening Sun. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection impacting the basin. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low is supporting strong winds over the central Caribbean, with associated rough seas. Fresh NE winds are also funnelling through the Windward Passage. Mainly moderate winds and seas prevail over the remaining waters. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western Atlantic ridge along 27N-28N and lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central portion of the basin through Wed night. The ridge will shift southward to near 26N by Thu and combine with a passing tropical wave, and allow strong trades to significantly expand in coverage over the central and eastern portions of the basin into early Sat. Winds will pulse up to strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Looking ahead, sowers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the central Atlantic are showing signs of improved organization tonight. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west- northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and approaches the Lesser Antilles over the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL91 located well SW of the Cabo Verde Islands. High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 27N50W. Mainly gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 23N and west of 25W, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 23N, with moderate seas. Offshore Africa, NE of the Cabo Verde Islands, including the Canary Islands, fresh to locally strong NE winds with moderate to locally rough seas dominate. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central Atlantic along 50W extends westward along 27N-28N to Florida, and will gradually shift southward to near 26N by Thu, then change little through Fri night, before weakening over the weekend. Winds will freshen S of 23N early Thu through Sat, behind a tropical wave moving across the region. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong speeds each night. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the central Atlantic are showing signs of improved organization tonight. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west- northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and approaches the Lesser Antilles over the weekend. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC121017_C_KWBC_20260812101719_47448518-777-TWDAT.txt ****0000007168**** AXNT20 KNHC 121017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Aug 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Invest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization along a tropical wave located over the central Atlantic along 38W-39W. An associated 1011 mb low center is located near 11N36.5W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development over the next few days and a tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days while the system moves W to W-NW at 10 to 15 kt across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance for tropical formation in the next 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving away from the African coast, and is along 21W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted ahead of this wave from 08N to 12.5N between 20W and 24.5W. See the Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave along 38W-39W. Low pressure near 11N36.5W associated with this wave is likely to develop into a tropical depression over the next couple of days. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08.5N to 13.5N between 33.5W and 38.5W The axis of a tropical wave is along 59W extending southward from 18N, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 56W and 61.5W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 71W S of 22N, crossing Hispaniola, moving west at around 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring over Hispaniola and the adjacent coastal waters. The axis of a tropical wave is along 87W, S of 21N, extending through the Gulf of Honduras southward into the far eastern Pacific, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 21N and W of 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14.50N17W and extends to 11.5N22W to 1011 mb low pres near 11N36.5W to 10.5N52W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 24W and 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Western Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge along 27N-28N, across Florida and into the N Gulf waters, where a 1019 mb high is found near 27.5N84.5W. A surface trough has moved westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche, and has triggered scattered moderate convection over the eastern half of the Bay of Campeche south of 21N. Light winds prevail across the NE Gulf near the high center, while gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, the current ridge extends across the northern Gulf will change little through Sat before weakening Sun. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection impacting the basin. The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure north of the area along 27N-28N and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean south of 17N, with associated rough seas to 11 ft near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds are also funneling through the Windward Passage. Mainly moderate winds and seas prevail over the remaining waters. For the forecast, the pressure gradient induced by the Atlantic ridge to the north will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central portion of the basin through Wed night. The ridge will begin to strengthen modestly behind a tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean Wed night, leading to a significant expansion in coverage of strong trade winds over the central and eastern portions of the basin through Sat. Winds may increase to gale-force offshore of Colombia Fri night and Sat night. Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the central Atlantic are showing signs of improved organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west- northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and reaches the Lesser Antilles over the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92 located over the central Atlantic. High pressure prevails over the waters N of 18N, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 27.5N50W, and extending from 25W to Florida. Mainly gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 23N and west of 25W, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 24N, with moderate seas. Overnight satellite scatterometer winds showed broad cyclonic winds between 30W and 40W about Invest AL92, with pockets of winds 20-25 kt. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in this area. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE winds extend from the Canary Islands to 19N then become moderate across the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail across this area. Saharan Air continues to dominate much of the basin N of 14N between Africa and 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure ridge will sink slightly southward Thu, then change little through Fri night, before weakening over the weekend. Winds will freshen from E to W, and south of 23N early Thu through Sat, behind a tropical wave moving across the Caribbean. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong speeds each night. Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the central Atlantic are showing signs of improved organization tonight. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and reaches the Lesser Antilles over the weekend. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC121024CCA_C_KWBC_20260812102544_49676782-842-TWDAT.txt ****0000007172**** AXNT20 KNHC 121024 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Aug 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Invest AL92: Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization along a tropical wave located over the central Atlantic along 38W-39W. An associated 1011 mb low center is located near 11N36.5W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development over the next few days and a tropical depression will likely form within a couple of days while the system moves W to W-NW at 10 to 15 kt across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance for tropical formation in the next 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving away from the African coast, and is along 21W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted ahead of this wave from 08N to 12.5N between 20W and 24.5W. See the Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave along 38W-39W. Low pressure near 11N36.5W associated with this wave is likely to develop into a tropical depression over the next couple of days. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08.5N to 13.5N between 33.5W and 38.5W The axis of a tropical wave is along 59W extending southward from 18N, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 56W and 61.5W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 71W S of 22N, crossing Hispaniola, moving west at around 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring over Hispaniola and the adjacent coastal waters. The axis of a tropical wave is along 87W, S of 21N, extending through the Gulf of Honduras southward into the far eastern Pacific, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 21N and W of 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14.50N17W and extends to 11.5N22W to 1011 mb low pres near 11N36.5W to 10.5N52W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 24W and 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Western Atlantic high pressure extends a ridge along 27N-28N, across Florida and into the N Gulf waters, where a 1019 mb high is found near 27.5N84.5W. A surface trough has moved westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche, and has triggered scattered moderate convection over the eastern half of the Bay of Campeche south of 21N. Light winds prevail across the NE Gulf near the high center, while gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, the current ridge extends across the northern Gulf will change little through Sat before weakening Sun. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection impacting the basin. The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure north of the area along 27N-28N and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean south of 17N, with associated rough seas to 11 ft near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds are also funneling through the Windward Passage. Mainly moderate winds and seas prevail over the remaining waters. For the forecast, the pressure gradient induced by the Atlantic ridge to the north will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central portion of the basin through Wed night. The ridge will begin to strengthen modestly behind a tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean Wed night, leading to a significant expansion in coverage of strong trade winds over the central and eastern portions of the basin through Sat. Winds may increase to gale-force offshore of Colombia Fri night and Sat night. Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the central Atlantic are showing signs of improved organization. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west- northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and reaches the Lesser Antilles over the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92 located over the central Atlantic. High pressure prevails over the waters N of 18N, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 27.5N50W, and extending from 25W to Florida. Mainly gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 23N and west of 25W, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 24N, with moderate seas. Overnight satellite scatterometer winds showed broad cyclonic winds between 30W and 40W about Invest AL92, with pockets of winds 20-25 kt. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in this area. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE winds extend from the Canary Islands to 19N then become moderate across the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail across this area. Saharan Air continues to dominate much of the basin N of 14N between Africa and 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure ridge will sink slightly southward Thu, then change little through Fri night, before weakening over the weekend. Winds will freshen from E to W, and south of 23N early Thu through Sat, behind a tropical wave moving across the Caribbean. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong speeds each night. Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave over the central Atlantic are showing signs of improved organization tonight. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and reaches the Lesser Antilles over the weekend. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC121757_C_KWBC_20260812175716_31523192-599-TWDAT.txt ****0000006650**** AXNT20 KNHC 121757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Aug 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Invest AL92:An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about 950 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance for tropical formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is east of the Cape Verde Islands, and is along 22W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted ahead of this wave from 06N to 13.5N between 20W and 28W. See the Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave along 38W. Low pressure near 10.3N38W associated with this wave is likely to develop into a tropical depression over the next couple of days. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08.5N to 13.5N between 36W and 41W The axis of a tropical wave is along 61.5W extending southward from 18N, moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 60W and 63W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 71.5W S of 22N, crossing Hispaniola, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring NE of the Hispaniola coastal waters. The axis of a tropical wave is along 88W, S of 21N, extending through the Gulf of Honduras southward into the far eastern Pacific, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 16N to 21.5N and W of 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W and extends southwestward to a 1011 mb low pressure near 10.3N38W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 11N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 44W and 47.5W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida into the Gulf region, where a 1019 mb high is found near 28N84.5W. A surface trough has moved westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and into the central Bay of Campeche, and is supporting scattered moderate convection over the western half of the Bay of Campeche south of 19.5N. Light winds prevail across the NE Gulf near the high center, while gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned Atlantic ridge will change little through Sat before weakening Sun. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection impacting the basin. The pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean south of 17N, with associated rough seas to 11 ft near the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds are also funneling through the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and seas prevail over the remaining waters. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through tonight. The ridge will begin to strengthen modestly behind a tropical wave currently moving across the eastern Caribbean by night, leading to a significant expansion in coverage of strong trade winds over the central and eastern portions of the basin through Sat. Winds may increase to gale-force offshore of Colombia Fri night and Sat night. Looking ahead, an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about 950 miles west- southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Invest AL92 located over the central Atlantic. High pressure prevails over the waters N of 14N, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 27N50W. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters N of 23N and west of 25W, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 23N, with moderate seas. Offshore Africa, fresh to locally strong NE winds extend from the Canary Islands to 20N then become moderate across the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail across this area. Saharan Air continues to dominate much of the basin N of 14N between Africa and 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will sink slightly southward Thu, then change little through Fri night, before weakening over the weekend. Winds will freshen from E to W, and south of 23N early Thu through Sat, behind a tropical wave moving across the Caribbean. Fresh trades N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage will pulse to strong speeds each night. Looking ahead, an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located about 900 miles west- southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################