--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-24 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC240616_C_KWBC_20260624061638_32440682-3655-TWDAT.txt ****0000004824**** AXNT20 KNHC 240616 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jun 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern tropical wave is near 28W from 14N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N between 24W and 33W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W from 16N southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 10N between 47W and 59W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W from 17N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 59W and 66W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic ocean near 15N16W and curves southwestward to 05N39W. The ITCZ extends from 05N39W to 05N52W. For information on convection, see the tropical waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails across the area, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 27N91W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are across the Gulf waters N of 24N and E of 94W. A tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along Mexico is supporting moderate E to SE winds W of 94W while a surface trough extending from the northern Yucatan Peninsula to the E Bay of Campeche supports moderate to fresh NE winds off western Yucatan. Otherwise, heavy showers and tstms are ongoing offshore Veracruz likely generating gusty winds and moderate to rough seas. For the forecast, the western end of the western Atlantic ridge, near the north-central Gulf will dominate much of basin through the weekend. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Wed night, then mainly fresh winds there afterward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic ridge extends west-southwestward from east of Bermuda to the northern Caribbean. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force winds over the central Caribbean, with seas in the 8-12 ft range. Fresh to strong NE winds are ongoing in the Windward Passage while E winds of the same magnitude are also ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas to 7 ft are across the E basin. Moderate or weaker NE to E winds are elsewhere in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a strong pressure gradient between a ridge N of the region and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds, and rough seas in the central basin through Wed morning, then become confined to the south-central basin Wed and Wed night before expanding northward again Thu through the weekend. Expect winds at near-gale force offshore of northwestern Colombia, during the nighttime and early morning hours, except Fri in which winds will stay at near-gale force. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Fresh trades with rough seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles through early Thu morning, diminishing to moderate winds and seas afterward. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the discussion waters N of 20N and supporting moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas, except for fresh NE to E winds N of Hispaniola. In the tropics, the tropical waves are supporting 7 to 8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the tail end of a weakening cold front will bring fresh to strong winds and some thunderstorms off northeastern Florida tonight. Otherwise, a broad ridge extending west-southwestward from east of Bermuda into southern Florida will dominate the western Atlantic through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected near the northern coast of Hispaniola each late afternoon through night through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected south of 22N through Thu before diminishing. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC241032_C_KWBC_20260624103340_32440682-3664-TWDAT.txt ****0000006411**** AXNT20 KNHC 241032 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Jun 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 15N southward, and moving westward at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 25W and 37W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 16N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 55W and 59W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W from the northern Leeward Islands southward into northeastern Venezuela. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the northern coast of Venezuela, and near the ABC Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea- Bissau near Bissau, then runs southwestward to 05N31W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N31W to near the coastal border of Brazil and French Guiana. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 05N to 09N between 15W and the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is bringing isolated thunderstorms across the Carribbean waters near Costa Rica and western Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A modest upper-level trough extends southwestward from central Florida to south of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms are evident at the central and western Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high at the north-central Gulf continues to dominate the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are found across the north-central and eastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the western end of the western Atlantic ridge, near the north-central Gulf will dominate much of basin through the weekend. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad Atlantic Ridge across the western Atlantic near 27N continues to sustain a robust trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Basin. Convergent trades are causing scattered moderate convection near Jamaica and the Island of Youth. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Strong to near-gale NE to E winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are present at the south-central basin, while fresh to locally strong NE to E winds with 7 to 9 ft seas dominate the north-central and part of the southwestern basin. Fresh to locally strong E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft persist at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are found at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds, and rough seas in the central basin through this morning, then become confined to the south-central basin this afternoon through tonight before expanding northward again Thu through Sat. Expect winds at near-gale force offshore of northwestern Colombia, during the nighttime and early morning hours, and also on Fri. On Fri night, these winds might peak at gale-force. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Fresh trades with rough seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles through early Thu morning, diminishing to moderate winds and seas afterward. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is generating scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms offshore of northeastern Florida, and between southeastern Florida and the northwest Bahamas. Farther east, an upper-level low near 27N64W is triggering scattered moderate convection from 25N to 29N between 62W and 68W. Well to the south, convergent trade winds are producing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 105 nm of 07N51W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted east of Florida, north of 28N between 70W and 80W. Otherwise, a broad ridge extending west-southwestward from east of Bermuda into southern Florida is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas north of 22N between 35W and the east coast of Florida, except SW to NW winds adjacent to southern Georgia and northeastern Florida. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft exist. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will bring gusty winds and strong thunderstorms off northeastern Florida through Thu. Otherwise, the broad ridge will dominate the western Atlantic through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected near the northern coast of Hispaniola each late afternoon through night through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected south of 22N through Thu before diminishing. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC241710_C_KWBC_20260624171143_32440682-3686-TWDAT.txt ****0000006745**** AXNT20 KNHC 241710 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Jun 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31.5W from 15N southward, and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N between 25W and 39W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 61W from 18N southward. This wave was repositioned this morning based on wave diagnostics tools and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 08N to 16N between 57W and 65W. An central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from 18N southward into northwestern Venezuela. This wave was repositioned this morning based on wave diagnostics tools and satellite imagery. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 13N to 15N between 67.5W and 72.5W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, then runs southwestward to 05N37W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N37W to near 05N50.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 09N and west of 19W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is bringing isolated thunderstorms across the Carribbean waters near Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak cold front extends from north of Cedar Key, Florida to Biloxi, Mississippi. No significant convection is depicted in association to this front. A modest upper- level trough extends southwestward from central Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident at the central Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge extends across south Florida then weakly to the western Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are found across the north- central and eastern Gulf. Mainly moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will dominate much of basin through the weekend. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through the weekend. Expect scattered showers and a few thunderstorms along a weak cold front that has shifted southward into the NE Gulf along 29N this morning, before the boundary lifts N of the Gulf tonight. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad Atlantic Ridge across the western Atlantic near 28N continues to sustain a robust trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Basin. An upper level trough is causing scattered moderate convection near Jamaica and the Island of Youth. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Strong to near-gale NE to E winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are present over the southwestern part of the basin, while fresh E winds along with 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the central part of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail over the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are found at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, a broad Atlantic ridge extends from the central Atlantic southwestward to south Florida. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds, and rough seas in the central basin through this morning, then become confined to the south- central basin this afternoon and tonight, before expanding northward again to 18N Thu morning through Sat. Expect winds at near-gale force offshore of Colombia during the nighttime and early morning hours, with gale-force winds likely S of 13.5N Fri night. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Fresh trades with rough seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles through early Thu morning, diminishing to moderate winds and seas afterward. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N77.5W to Saint Agustin, Florida. A surface trough ahead of the weak cold front is generating scattered showers and strong thunderstorms north of 26.5N and between 74W and 78W. Farther east, an upper- level low near 28N65W is triggering scattered moderate convection from 25.5N to 29N between 62W and 67W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted east of Florida, north of 28N between 69W and 75W. Otherwise, a broad ridge extending west-southwestward from the central Atlantic to the Bahamas is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas north of 22N between 35W and the east coast of Florida, except NW winds adjacent to southern Georgia and northeastern Florida. For the tropical Atlantic from 09N to 22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft exist. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a 1027 mb high pressure centered near 34N46W extends a broad ridge southwestward into southern Florida and will dominate the western Atlantic through the weekend. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with strong gusty winds will continue across the waters offshore of NE Florida through Thu, along and SE of a weak cold front and pre-frontal surface rough across the NW zones. Fresh to strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected near the northern coast of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico each late afternoon through night through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected south of 22N through Thu night before diminishing. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################