--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2025-06-30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC300505_C_KWBC_20250630050554_12124482-5564-TWDAT.txt ****0000006597**** AXNT20 KNHC 300505 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jun 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Barry is centered near 22.0N 97.8W at 30/0300 UTC or 10 nm SSE of Tampico Mexico, moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted south of 28N and west of 92W. Peak seas occurring offshore Tampico are near 8 ft. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barry should dissipate over eastern Mexico on Monday. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 kt and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. Barry or its remnant is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Barry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 14N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 12N and between 20W and 28W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 16N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N and between 28W and 40W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 15N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is evident along the trough axis. A well-defined tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 70W, south of 19N, moving westward around 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing the convection in Hispaniola and western Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N30W and to 06N42W. The ITCZ extends from 06N42W to 04N52W. A few showers are present within 120 nm of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Depression Barry centered over northern Veracruz. Outside of the influence of Barry, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are found in the eastern Gulf waters. A high pressure system in the NE Gulf supports moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas west of 90W and also south of 25N and east of 90W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, recently-downgraded and now inland Tropical Depression Barry is near 22.0N 97.8W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Barry will move to 22.7N 98.5W Mon morning and dissipate Mon evening. Otherwise, by the end of the week, a weak cold front will likely settle into the northern Gulf.. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information. A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the central and eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also captured near gale-force off NW Colombia. Seas of 6-9 ft (2-3 m) are found in the central and eastern Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate seas are evident in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across most of the central and SW Caribbean through late week. Winds will occasionally pulse to near- gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details. An upper level low is moving slowly westward over the NW Bahamas producing a few showers over the SE Bahamas and enhancing the strong convection over Florida and surrounding waters. Farther east, a surface trough is found SE of Bermuda and a few showers are seen near this boundary. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge sustaining moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 25N and west of 55W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft (1.5-2 m). Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere west of 55W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb high pressure system in the northern Atlantic. The tighe pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa support fresh to strong N-NE winds north of 20N and east of 25W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft (2-2.5 m). Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found south of 25N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge will prevail across the region through late week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. By the end of the week, a weak cold front is likely to move off the SE U.S. coast into the NW waters. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC300515_C_KWBC_20250630051537_25559334-1958-TWDAT.txt ****0000006597**** AXNT20 KNHC 300515 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jun 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Barry is centered near 22.0N 97.8W at 30/0300 UTC or 10 nm SSE of Tampico Mexico, moving NW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted south of 28N and west of 92W. Peak seas occurring offshore Tampico are near 8 ft. Continued weakening is forecast, and Barry should dissipate over eastern Mexico on Monday. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 6 kt and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. Barry or its remnant is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Tamaulipas through Monday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Barry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 14N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 12N and between 20W and 28W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 16N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N and between 28W and 40W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 15N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is evident along the trough axis. A well-defined tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 70W, south of 19N, moving westward around 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing the convection in Hispaniola and western Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N30W and to 06N42W. The ITCZ extends from 06N42W to 04N52W. A few showers are present within 120 nm of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Depression Barry centered over northern Veracruz. Outside of the influence of Barry, a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are found in the eastern Gulf waters. A high pressure system in the NE Gulf supports moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas west of 90W and also south of 25N and east of 90W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, recently-downgraded and now inland Tropical Depression Barry is near 22.0N 97.8W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Barry will move to 22.7N 98.5W Mon morning and dissipate Mon evening. Otherwise, by the end of the week, a weak cold front will likely settle into the northern Gulf.. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information. A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the central and eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. A recent scatterometer satellite pass also captured near gale-force off NW Colombia. Seas of 6-9 ft (2-3 m) are found in the central and eastern Caribbean, with the highest seas occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate seas are evident in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across most of the central and SW Caribbean through late week. Winds will occasionally pulse to near- gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details. An upper level low is moving slowly westward over the NW Bahamas producing a few showers over the SE Bahamas and enhancing the strong convection over Florida and surrounding waters. Farther east, a surface trough is found SE of Bermuda and a few showers are seen near this boundary. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge sustaining moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 25N and west of 55W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft (1.5-2 m). Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere west of 55W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb high pressure system in the northern Atlantic. The tight pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Africa support fresh to strong N-NE winds north of 20N and east of 25W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft (2-2.5 m). Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found south of 25N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge will prevail across the region through late week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. By the end of the week, a weak cold front is likely to move off the SE U.S. coast into the NW waters. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC301001_C_KWBC_20250630100239_25559334-1973-TWDAT.txt ****0000005639**** AXNT20 KNHC 301001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Jun 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Barry is dissipating over Tamaulipas, Mexico, this morning. The remnants Of Barry is centered near 23.0N 99.2W at 30/0900 UTC or 90 nm NW of Tampico Mexico, moving NW at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate convection continues over Gulf waters S of 28N and W of 92W. The remnants of Barry may still produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with localized amounts in excess of 8 inches, across the Mexican states of San Luis Potosi and Tamaulipas today. This may lead to life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Barry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, from the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 12N and between 21W and 28W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 16N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N and between 30W and 40W. An Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles along 59W, south of 15W, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is evident along the trough axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W from Hispaniola to Colombia, moving W at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 13N16W to 10N30W and to 06N42W. The ITCZ extends from 06N42W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 42W and 46W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the Remnants of Barry located over Tamaulipas, Mexico. Outside of the influence of Barry, land breeze impacts has broad a band of scattered convection offshore the northeastern Gulf coast from near the Mississippi River to Tampa Bay. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions prevail under week ridging. Light to gentle winds dominate the NE Gulf, with mainly moderate SE winds elsewhere. Seas are less than 3 ft in the NE Gulf and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, winds and seas in association with Barry will quickly diminish this morning. Otherwise, by the end of the week, a weak cold front is forecast to stall in the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information. A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the basin, with localized near-gale force winds offshore NW Colombia. In the NW basin, moderate trades prevail. Seas are 6 to 9 ft, except 9-11 ft offshore Colombia, and 3 to 5 ft in the NW basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean associated with the E Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across most of the central and SW Caribbean through the week. Winds will occasionally pulse to near- gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela into late week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details. An upper level low is moving slowly westward over the NW Bahamas, inducing scattered moderate convection over the Bahamas, Florida, and adjacent waters W of 75W. The remainder of the basin is generally under the influence of ridging, either from the Bermuda high, extending SW from 1022 mb center near 32N64W, or the Azores high, at 1025 mb, centered near 32N30W. To the N of 25N, this is causing mainly gentle winds W of 30W, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Over the far E Atlantic E of 30W, fresh NNE winds are inducing 5 to 8 ft seas. For the tradewind belt S of 25N, moderate to locally fresh E winds dominate, with 5 to 7 ft seas, locally 8 ft seas within 200 nm of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge will prevail across the region through late week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. By the end of the week, a weak cold front is forecast to move off the SE U.S. coast into the NW waters, then stall. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC301634_C_KWBC_20250630163542_25559334-1995-TWDAT.txt ****0000005110**** AXNT20 KNHC 301634 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Jun 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1631 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, from 16N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 11N and between 22W and 31W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N and between 34W and 41W. An Atlantic tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles along 60W, south of 15W, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is evident along the trough axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W from Jamaica to the Panama/Colombia border line, moving W at around 20 kt. No significant convection is depicted at moment in association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends southwestward to 09N41W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 41W and 46W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The remnants of Barry are inland across eastern Mexico near 22.5N 99W this morning and scattered convection continues over the western Gulf in association with it. A mid level rough is supporting numerous moderate convection over the northeast Gulf. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions prevail under week ridging. Light to gentle winds dominate the NE Gulf, with moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere, except for fresh to strong winds over the western Gulf. Seas are less than 3 ft in the NE Gulf and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except for 5 to 8 ft seas over the western Gulf. For the forecast, the remnants of Barry are inland across eastern Mexico near 22.5N 99W this morning, while fresh to strong SE winds to 25 kt continue across portions the Mexican coastal waters north of Veracruz. Scattered squalls and are also persisting across much of the western Gulf from Veracruz to Brownsville. Winds and seas will gradually diminish there through this afternoon. Otherwise, weak high pressure will continue across the eastern Gulf through midweek, before a weak cold front sinks southward across Florida and adjacent waters, and is forecast to stall in the northern Gulf Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information. A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds over much of the basin, with the strongest winds offshore NW Colombia. In the NW basin, moderate trades prevail. Seas are 6 to 9 ft, except 9-11 ft offshore Colombia, and 3 to 5 ft in the NW basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean will support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across most of the central and SW Caribbean through early Fri. Winds will pulse at night to near- gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela into late week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details. An upper level low is nearly stationary over the NW Bahamas, inducing scattered moderate convection over the Bahamas, and adjacent waters W of 68W. The remainder of the basin is generally under the influence of ridging, either from the Bermuda high, extending SW from 1024 mb center near 32N62W, or another 1029 mb high, centered over the north Atlantic. To the N of 25N, this is causing light to gentle winds W of 33W, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Over the far E Atlantic north of 18N and E of 33W , fresh NE winds are inducing 5 to 9 ft seas. For the tradewind belt S of 25N, moderate to locally fresh E winds dominate, with 5 to 7 ft seas, locally 8 ft seas within 200 nm of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High and associated ridge will prevail across the region through late week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoons into the overnights N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. By the end of the week, a weak cold front is forecast to move off the SE U.S. coast into the NW waters, then stall. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC302313_C_KWBC_20250630231445_25559334-2022-TWDAT.txt ****0000006193**** AXNT20 KNHC 302313 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Jul 1 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 27W, and extends southward from 16N. It is moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 06N to 10N between 21W and 32W. A second Atlantic tropical wave axis is along 39W, from 16N southward, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. A few showers are near the wave axis. A tropical wave is reaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis is along 61W. Convection is limited near the wave axis. A tropical wave continues to move westward at 15 to 20 kt across the central Caribbean. Its axis extends from Jamaica to near the Colombia/Panama border. The wave, combined with an upper-level low located over the western Caribbean, is enhancing convection over parts of Jamaica and regional waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends westward to 09N41W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to 06N57W. Convection is limited. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge dominates the Gulf of America region. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the remnant low of Barry, located inland Mexico, supports an area of fresh to strong SE winds over the western Gulf, particularly from 20N to 26N W of 93W. Moderate to locally fresh SE are noted elsewhere S of 27N and W of 90W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds dominate the remainder of the Gulf region, with mainly moderate winds across the Straits of Florida. Slight to moderate seas prevail, with the highest seas of 5 to 7 ft within the strongest winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed across the basin. For the forecast, winds and seas are gradually improving across the western Gulf as the remnants of Barry continue to dissipate inland across eastern Mexico. Scattered squalls and thunderstorms are expected to continue W of 94W from Veracruz to Brownsville through Tue. Otherwise, weak high pressure will persist across the eastern Gulf through midweek, before a weak cold front sinks southward across north Florida and adjacent Gulf waters Fri, and is forecast to stall in the northern Gulf through Sat. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could develop from the weakening front by the weekend off the southeast U.S., over Florida, or over the eastern Gulf. Some gradual tropical or subtropical development could occur thereafter as the low moves little. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean, and a second one is reaching the Lesser Antilles. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more information. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. The strongest winds, in the 25 to 30 kt range are seen offshore Colombia based on scatterometer data. Seas of 7 to 10 ft are within these winds. Moderate to fresh trades are over the eastern and SW Caribbean, with mainly moderate winds over the NW part of the basin. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba, and in the vicinity of Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua where slight seas are noted. An upper-level low over the western Caribbean is helping to induce showers and thunderstorms over parts of Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure across NW Colombia and the SW Caribbean will support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across most of the central and SW Caribbean through Wed, then diminish N of 15N into the upcoming weekend. Winds will pulse at night to near-gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela into Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for more details. High pressure, and its associated ridge, dominates the entire Atlantic forecast area, with a 1024 mb center located S of Bermuda near 27N64W, and another center of 1029 mb situated W of the Azores near 39N37W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas are affecting the waters from 20N to 28N E of 25W, including between the Canary Islands due to the pressure gradient between the Azores high and lower pressures over W Africa. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds are observed S of 25N, with gentle to moderate winds N of 25N. Moderate seas are noted within these winds. An upper-level low, now centered just N of the NW Bahamas, is promoting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the waters W of 70W, including the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and S Florida. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High is expected to maintain a ridge W to E along about 30N through Wed, then begin to drift eastward and weaken modestly through late week. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail S of 25N through Thu. Fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse from late afternoon into the overnight hours N of Hispaniola through the period. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere. A weak cold front is forecast to move off the SE U.S. coast and into the NW zones early Fri, then stall there through Sat. Low pressure may form along the front during this time. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################