--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-04-08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC080616_C_KWBC_20260408061629_38666572-746-TWDAT.txt ****0000006021**** AXNT20 KNHC 080616 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Apr 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from 31N72W SW to a 1010 mb low near 29N74W then transitions to a cold front that moves across SE Florida near 25N80W. The low pressure will track slowly NE, lifting N of the area near Bermuda Thu, while the front drifts E, extending SW from near Bermuda to western Cuba later Thu into Fri. Thunderstorms with gusty winds will impact waters along and east of the track of the low pressure. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the north of our waters and the front is supporting NE gales offshore NE Florida. These gales will spread eastward to about 72W, mainly north of 28N, through Wed night, before gradually ending as the low pressure moves north of the area. Very rough seas of 15 to 20 ft will be generated by these gales, and rough seas in N swell will impact a much larger area through the end of the week. The front is likely to linger over the basin into the weekend, so marine conditions could be slow to improve. East Atlantic Large Swell: Long period NW to N swell behind a cold front that extends across NW Africa and the eastern Atlantic is creating seas of 11 to 13 ft north of 21N and east of 40W. This swell event will continue to propagate southward with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 10N on Wed. By late Thursday afternoon or early in the evening, the swell should decay enough to allow seas to drop below 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the forecast zone of Madeira. The forecast calls for NW gales to 40 kt, with severe gusts from 08/12 UTC to 09/00 UTC at least. Very rough seas in NW swell are also reaching the islands. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia, Africa and continues SW to 02N21W. The ITCZ extends west-southwestward from 02N21W to 00N35W to NE Brazil near 00N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03S to 07N between 05W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The tail of a front stalls across southern Florida, entering the Gulf SE waters near 25N81W and continuing to a 1010 mb low near 24N85W from where a cold front stretches SW the NE Yucatan Peninsula offshore waters near 22N88W. Surface ridging has started to build across the northern Gulf, and is supporting fresh to near gale force NE winds across the NE Gulf offshores as confirmed by recent scatterometer data. Seas with these winds are rough to 10 to 11 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, and seas moderate in the 4 to 7 ft range. For the forecast, the front will stall over the far SE basin through Thu, and strong to near gale-force NE winds and rough seas will continue in the NE Gulf during this time. Conditions will gradually improve Fri into the weekend as the high pressure builds southwestward across the northern basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic ridge extends SW reaching the NE Caribbean. This system is supporting fresh to locally strong E to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft across the eastern part of the basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are ongoing across the SW Caribbean while light and variable winds and slight seas dominate the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen over Hispaniola and E Cuba adjacent waters as well as in the Windward Passage. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the central and eastern basin into Thu, with gentle to moderate winds to the west. Strong high pressure will then build southward from the western Atlantic, with a tightening pressure gradient leading to increasing winds, especially in the south-central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Atlantic. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. A stationary front extends from 31N72W SW to a 1010 mb low near 29N74W then transitions to a cold front that moves across SE Florida near 25N80W. Recent scatterometer data confirm the presence of gales west of the low and front, over the NE and central Florida offshore waters. Seas with these winds are rough to very rough with peak seas of 16 ft N of the Bahamas. Aside from the winds and seas, heavy showers and tstms continue to affect the offshore waters N of 20N between 62W and 77W. Over the far E Atlantic, the tail of a cold front starts to weaken near 25N20W to 23N41W. Strong high pressure of 1038 mb SW of the Azores is driving a long-period N to NW swell that is affecting the central, eastern and tropical Atlantic waters. See the Special Features Swell section for further details. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge prevails elsewhere, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas. For the forecast west of 55W, please refer to the Special Features Western Atlantic Gale Warning section for all the information related to the above mentioned frontal boundary. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC081004_C_KWBC_20260408100519_9109880-786-TWDAT.txt ****0000006171**** AXNT20 KNHC 081004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Apr 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A slow-moving cold front extends from 31N72W to a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 29N73W to the Florida Straits. The front will drift slowly eastward, before stalling into the weekend from just E of Bermuda to eastern Cuba. The low will move NE along the boundary and lift N of the area near Bermuda Thu night. Thunderstorms with gusty winds will impact waters along and east of the cold front through at least Thu. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the north and the front is supporting NE gales offshore NE Florida, mainly N of 28N and W of 72W. These gales will continue through tonight before gradually diminishing as the low pressure weakens and begins to move N of the region. Very rough seas have been generated by these gales, and seas of up to 20 ft are forecast in the gale area today into tonight. The very rough seas will linger across portions of the waters N of the Bahamas into Thu night, with rough seas in N swell impacting much of the waters N of 25N into the weekend. With the stationary front lingering over the basin through the weekend, NE winds W of the boundary will be slow to diminish through the period. East Atlantic Large Swell: Long period NW to N swell continues to propagating through portions of the far eastern Atlantic, causing seas of 12 to 14 ft N of 19N and E of 39W. Rough seas cover a much broader area, N of 10N and E of 55W. The swell will only very slowly decay, and seas of 12 ft or greater will reach as far as 15N by Thu. Seas should fall below 12 ft Thu night, although rough seas will likely persist into the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both the West Atlantic Gale Warning and the Significant Swell in the East Atlantic. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the forecast zone of Madeira. The forecast calls for NW gales to 40 kt, with severe gusts from 08/12 UTC to 09/00 UTC at least. Very rough seas in NW swell are also reaching the islands. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W and continues SW to 02N21W. The ITCZ extends west-southwestward from 02N21W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 07N between 05W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A slow-moving cold front extends from the Florida Keys to a 1010 mb low pressure centered near 24N85W to just N of the Yucatan Channel. ENE winds gradually increase N of this boundary, becoming strong in the NE Gulf, where seas are rough. in the western Gulf, mainly gentle NE winds and moderate seas prevail. A cluster of moderate convection has developed early this morning within 90 nm of the coast of Tampico, Mexico, otherwise no thunderstorms are present in the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will drift slowly E and out of the basin by Thu, keeping strong to near gale-force NE winds and rough seas in place over the NE Gulf into Thu. As high pressure builds SW into the northern Gulf Fri through the weekend, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will establish through the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic ridge extends SW reaching the NE Caribbean. This system is supporting fresh to locally strong E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft across the eastern part of the basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are ongoing across the SW Caribbean while light and variable winds and slight seas dominate the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted between Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti, in association with a trough to the north. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the central and eastern basin into Thu, with gentle to moderate winds to the west. Strong high pressure will then build southward from the western Atlantic, with a tightening pressure gradient leading to increasing winds, especially in the south-central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the portions of the western Atlantic. A Gale Warning has also been issued by Meteo-France for portions of the far eastern Atlantic. Please refer to the Special Features section for details. Aside from the cold front that is inducing the gales, a low pressure trough along 68W from 31N southward to about 22W is leading to fresh to strong S winds N of 26N between the trough axis and 60W. The trough and cold front are leading to numerous moderate to scattered strong convection extending northward from Hispaniola and eastern Cuba between 65W and 75W. E of 65W, broad northeast to east winds dominate the basin. Most areas are having moderate to fresh breezes, but a zone of strong easterly extend N of 20N and E of 40W, where some significant northerly swell is leading to very rough seas. Details on the swell and its forecast propagation can be found in the Special Features section above. Moderate seas dominate the remainder of the Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, please refer to the Special Features Western Atlantic Gale Warning section for forecast details related to the marine conditions caused by the previously mentioned frontal boundary. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC081652_C_KWBC_20260408165334_38666572-782-TWDAT.txt ****0000006154**** AXNT20 KNHC 081652 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Apr 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal boundary, with a two surface lows along it, is slowly moving eastward. Low-level convergence and lift near the boundary and upper-level diffluence is causing widespread showers and thunderstorms north of 24N between 64W and 73W. This activity is mainly on the east side of the boundary, which currently extends from a low near 32N67W to another low near 28N72W to the central Bahamas. Gale-force northeast winds are occurring behind the boundary due to the tight pressure gradient between the front and high pressure over the northeastern U.S. Very rough seas have been generated by these gales, and seas of up to 18 ft are occurring in the warning area. The very rough seas will linger across portions of the waters N of the Bahamas into Thu night, with rough seas in N swell impacting much of the waters N of 25N into the weekend. East Atlantic Large Swell: Long-period NW to N swell continues propagating southward across portions of the far eastern Atlantic, causing maximum seas of 12 to 14 ft over the subtropics east of about 40W. Rough seas cover a much broader area N of 10N and E of 55W. The swell will only very slowly decay, and seas of 12 ft or greater will reach as far south as 15N by Thu. Seas should fall below 12 ft Thu night, although rough seas will likely persist into the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both the West Atlantic Gale Warning and the significant swell in the East Atlantic. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the forecast zone of Madeira. The forecast calls for NW gales to 40 kt, with severe gusts during the next several hours. Very rough seas in NW swell are also reaching the islands. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues SW to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends west-southwestward from 04N20W to 00N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03S to the equator between 30W and 40W and from 01N to 05N between 12W and 18W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak area of low pressure and associated trough over the southeastern Gulf and the Florida Straits is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Similiar activity is occurring along another trough over the far western Gulf, near the coasts of Mexico and southern Texas. Winds and seas are highest today (up to 30 kt and 10 ft) over the northeast and north- central waters, where a tight pressure gradient exists between strong high pressure over the northeast U.S. and the troughing over the southeastern Gulf. Winds and seas are lightest over the southwestern waters. For the forecast, the trough over the southeastern waters will drift slowly eastward and move out of the basin by Thu. However, strong to near gale-force NE winds and rough seas will continue over the northeast Gulf for another day or so. As high pressure builds southwestward into the northern Gulf Fri through the weekend, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will become established through the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection has been persisiting near Jamaica, western Haiti, and eastern Cuba, primarily associated with an upper-level jet. The remainder of the region is experienceing generally fair weather supported by dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Winds are strongest, up to 25 kt, over the usual location, the south-central portion of the area off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela, where the pressure gradient is tight between low pressure over Colombia and high pressure northeast of the area. These winds are causing elevated seas, up to about 8 ft. Winds and seas are lightest over the western portion of the area. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the central and eastern basin into Thu, with gentle to moderate winds to the west. Strong high pressure will then build southward from the western Atlantic, with a tightening pressure gradient leading to increasing winds, especially in the south-central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the portions of the western Atlantic. Meteo-France also has a gale warning in effect for portions of the far eastern Atlantic. Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on these hazardous weather events. The remainder of the basin is domninated by strong surface high pressure, which along with dry air aloft, is supporting fair weather across the majority of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic. Most areas are experiencing moderate to fresh winds, but a zone of strong easterly winds extend N of 20N and E of 40W, where some significant northerly swell is leading to very rough seas. Details on the swell and its forecast propagation can be found in the Special Features section above. Moderate seas dominate the remainder of the Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, please refer to the Special Features Western Atlantic Gale Warning section for forecast details related to the marine conditions caused by the previously mentioned frontal boundary. $$ Cangialosi ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC082327_C_KWBC_20260408232837_38666572-803-TWDAT.txt ****0000006131**** AXNT20 KNHC 082327 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Apr 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a slow-moving cold front that extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and a strong high pressure of 1037 mb located over the NE of the United States supports gale force winds with rough to very rough seas up to 18 ft in the wake of the front. These marine conditions will persist tonight into Thu. Then, winds and seas will diminish through Fri as the front drifts eastward and dissipates, although large NE swell will persist between the central Bahamas and Bermuda through Sat. East Atlantic Large Swell: Long-period NW to N swell continues propagating southward across portions of the far eastern Atlantic, causing maximum seas of 12 to 14 ft east of about 40W. Rough seas cover a much broader area N of 10N and E of 55W. This swell event will decay slowly, and seas of 12 ft or greater will reach as far south as 15N by early Thu. Seas should fall below 12 ft Thu night, although rough seas will likely persist into the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both the West Atlantic Gale Warning and the significant swell event in the East Atlantic. Gale Warning E of 35W: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Meteo-France marine zone of Madeira. The forecast calls for NW gales to 40 kt, with severe gusts through 09/06Z. Very rough seas in NW swell are also reaching the islands. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues SW to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 05N between 15W and 20W, and S of 01N between 30W and 40W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are N of 03N and E of 10W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak area of low pressure and associated surface trough over the southeastern Gulf and the Straits of Florida is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Scattered showers are likely occurring along another trough over the far west- central Gulf, near the coast of Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are over the eastern Gulf where a tight pressure gradient exists between strong high pressure over the northeast U.S. and the troughing over the southeastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh NE winds offshore SW Louisiana to about 28N. For the forecast, the low pressure and trough will drift slowly eastward and out of the basin through Thu. High pressure building over the eastern U.S. will support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas across the northeast Gulf into Fri. Looking ahead, this pattern will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas across the basin, except for occasional strong E winds off western Cuba early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Greater Antilles, primarily associated with strong upper-level winds. Low-topped trade wind showers are noted elsewhere. Winds are strongest, up to 25 kt, over the usual location, the south- central portion of the area off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela, where the pressure gradient is tight between low pressure over Colombia and high pressure northeast of the area. These winds are causing rough seas, up to about 8 ft. Mainly light and variable winds dominate the western portion of the area. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the central and eastern parts of the basin into Thu, with gentle to moderate winds to the west. Strong high pressure will then build southward from the western Atlantic, with a tightening pressure gradient leading to increasing winds, especially in the south- central Caribbean. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong NE winds and building seas early next week in the lee of Cuba and across the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the portions of the western Atlantic. Meteo-France also has a Gale Warning in effect for the forecast zone of Madeira. Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on these hazardous weather events. The remainder of the basin is dominated by strong surface high pressure of 1038 mb located SW of the Azores near 36N34W. Patches of low level moisture are observed on satellite imagery under the influence of this system. Most areas are experiencing moderate to fresh winds, but a zone of strong easterly winds extend N of 20N and E of 40W, where some significant northerly swell is leading to very rough seas. Details on the swell and its forecast propagation can be found in the Special Features section above. Moderate seas dominate the remainder of the Atlantic. A gale center, spinning NE of the Madeira Islands, is forecast to move southward toward the forecast area in about 24 hours. For the forecast west of 55W, please refer to the Special Features Western Atlantic Gale Warning section for forecast details related to the marine conditions caused by the previously mentioned frontal boundary. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################