--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC210320_C_KWBC_20261021032027_38011292-6116-TWDAT.txt ****0000004774**** AXNT20 KNHC 210320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W and continues west-southwestward to 09N26W. The ITCZ extends from 09N26W to 07N50W. No significant convection is noted near these boundaries. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche continues to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, while drier conditions are prevalent elsewhere. Strong high pressure north of the area is forcing strong NW winds and rough seas in the SW Gulf, while moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern U.S. will support fresh to NE winds are across the basin through the week, except for strong NW to N winds over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through Wed. The high combined with low pressure that is expected to develop near the Bahamas, will support strong to near-gale NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf Sat. These conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak to 12 ft with these winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers are noted in the lee of Cuba, over Hispaniola and off Colombia. High pressure north of the area and a nearby frontal boundary support moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade and seas of 3-5 ft are found from 11.5N to 16N and east of 80W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds N of 20N W of 85W will diminish to moderate speeds by Wed as high pressure north of the basin weakens. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to moderate NE winds will continue W of 79W. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary cold front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. A few showers are occurring near this boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Farther east, a weak low pressure near 27N58W along an NW-SE oriented surface trough and a nearby broad upper-level trough combine to support scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 20N and between 40W and 60W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found east of the surface trough. Meanwhile, well east of the Lesser Antilles, a surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 13N to 18N and between 35W and 55W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 10N and west of 50W. Finally, in the far NE Atlantic, a weak surface low near 26N22W supports scattered showers north of 22N and east of 25W, affecting portions of Western Sahara, Morocco and the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found north of 25N and east of 35W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under a strong high pressure system positioned north of the Azores, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and large NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends from 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Winds will diminish into Wed as the frontal boundary weakens. Lingering swell will slowly subside through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure develops near, or NE of the Bahamas along a remnant frontal trough. This setup is expected to induce widespread near to gale- force NE winds over the waters roughly NW of a line from near 31N51W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba, including the Straits of Florida. Seas with these winds are expected to quickly build to rough to very rough. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC210328_C_KWBC_20261021032927_38011292-6118-TWDAT.txt ****0000004779**** AXNT20 KNHC 210328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W and continues west-southwestward to 09N26W. The ITCZ extends from 09N26W to 07N50W. No significant convection is noted near these boundaries. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche continues to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, while drier conditions are prevalent elsewhere. Strong high pressure north of the area is forcing strong NW winds and rough seas in the SW Gulf, while moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern U.S. will support moderate to fresh NE winds across the basin through the week, except for strong NW to N winds over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through Wed. The high combined with low pressure that is expected to develop near the Bahamas will support strong to near-gale NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf Sat. These conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak to 12 ft with these winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers are noted in the lee of Cuba, over Hispaniola and off Colombia. High pressure north of the area and a nearby frontal boundary support moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade and seas of 3-5 ft are found from 11.5N to 16N and east of 80W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds N of 20N W of 85W will diminish to moderate speeds by Wed as high pressure north of the basin weakens. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to moderate NE winds will continue W of 79W. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary cold front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. A few showers are occurring near this boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Farther east, a weak low pressure near 27N58W along an NW-SE oriented surface trough and a nearby broad upper-level trough combine to support scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 20N and between 40W and 60W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found east of the surface trough. Meanwhile, well east of the Lesser Antilles, a surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 13N to 18N and between 35W and 55W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 10N and west of 50W. Finally, in the far NE Atlantic, a weak surface low near 26N22W supports scattered showers north of 22N and east of 25W, affecting portions of Western Sahara, Morocco and the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found north of 25N and east of 35W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under a strong high pressure system positioned north of the Azores, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and large NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends from 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Winds will diminish into Wed as the frontal boundary weakens. Lingering swell will slowly subside through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure develops near, or NE of the Bahamas along a remnant frontal trough. This setup is expected to induce widespread near to gale- force NE winds over the waters roughly NW of a line from near 31N51W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba, including the Straits of Florida. Seas with these winds are expected to quickly build to rough to very rough. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC210340_C_KWBC_20261021034113_21889468-5931-TWDAT.txt ****0000004787**** AXNT20 KNHC 210340 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W and continues west-southwestward to 09N26W. The ITCZ extends from 09N26W to 07N50W. No significant convection is noted near these boundaries. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche continues to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, while drier conditions are prevalent elsewhere. Strong high pressure north of the area is forcing strong NW winds and rough seas in the SW Gulf, while moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern U.S. will support moderate to fresh NE winds across the basin through the week, except for strong NW to N winds over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through Wed. The high combined with low pressure that is expected to develop near the Bahamas will support strong to near-gale NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf Sat. These conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak to 12 ft with these winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers are noted in the lee of Cuba, over Hispaniola and off Colombia. High pressure north of the area and a nearby frontal boundary support moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the waters north of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found from 11.5N to 16N and east of 80W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds N of 20N W of 85W will diminish to moderate speeds by Wed as high pressure north of the basin weakens. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to moderate NE winds will continue W of 79W. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary cold front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. A few showers are occurring near this boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. Farther east, a weak low pressure near 27N58W along an NW-SE oriented surface trough and a nearby broad upper-level trough combine to support scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 20N and between 40W and 60W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found east of the surface trough. Meanwhile, well east of the Lesser Antilles, a surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 13N to 18N and between 35W and 55W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 10N and west of 50W. Finally, in the far NE Atlantic, a weak surface low near 26N22W supports scattered showers north of 22N and east of 25W, affecting portions of Western Sahara, Morocco and the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found north of 25N and east of 35W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under a strong high pressure system positioned north of the Azores, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and large NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends from 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Winds will diminish into Wed as the frontal boundary weakens. Lingering swell will slowly subside through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure develops near, or NE of the Bahamas along a remnant frontal trough. This setup is expected to induce widespread near to gale- force NE winds over the waters roughly NW of a line from near 31N51W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba, including the Straits of Florida. Seas with these winds are expected to quickly build to rough to very rough. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC211020_C_KWBC_20261021102116_21889468-5958-TWDAT.txt ****0000004617**** AXNT20 KNHC 211020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W and continues west-southwestward to 08N31W. The ITCZ extends from 08N31W to 09N51W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the Monsoon Trough and E of 21W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche continues to produce scattered showers, while drier conditions are prevalent elsewhere. Strong high pressure north of the area is forcing strong NW winds and rough seas in the SW Gulf, while moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern U.S. will support fresh to NE winds across the basin through the week, except for strong NW to N winds over the SW Gulf through Wed. The high, combined with a low pressure that is expected to develop near the Bahamas, will support strong to near-gale NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf Sat. These conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak to 12 ft with these winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted off Colombia. High pressure north of the area and a nearby stationary frontal boundary support moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the waters north of 20N. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found from 11.5N to 16N and east of 80W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds N of 20N W of 85W will diminish to moderate speeds today as high pressure north of the basin weakens. Moderate to fresh SE winds will prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to moderate NE winds will continue W of 79W. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered showers are occurring near this boundary. Latest scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Farther east, a weak low pressure near 29N59W along an NW-SE oriented surface trough and a nearby broad upper-level trough combine to support scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 20N and between 42W and 60W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found east of the surface trough. Meanwhile, well east of the Lesser Antilles, a surface trough is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 13N to 18N and between 43W and 52W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 10N and west of 50W. Finally, in the far NE Atlantic, a surface trough along 23W from 20N-30N supports scattered showers north of 24N and east of 25W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found north of 25N and east of 35W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under a strong high pressure system positioned north of the Azores, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and large NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends from 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas and to central Cuba. Winds will diminish into Wed as the frontal boundary weakens. Lingering swell will slowly subside through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure develops near, or NE of the Bahamas along a remnant frontal trough. This setup is expected to induce widespread near to gale-force NE winds over the waters roughly NW of a line from near 31N61W to the northern Bahamas. Seas with these winds are expected to quickly build to rough to very rough. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC211740_C_KWBC_20261021174032_38011292-6169-TWDAT.txt ****0000006354**** AXNT20 KNHC 211740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W, and continues west-southwestward to 08N31W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N40W and to near 09N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough between the coast of Africa and 17W. Similar activity is within 60 nm south of the trough between 24W-27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A trough is in the SW Gulf from near 21N95W to 18N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm west of the trough from 19N to 21N, and within 90 nm east of the trough south of 19N. Another trough extends from near Corpus Christi to 27N96W and to 24N96.5W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 30 nm east of the trough from 27N to 28N. Fresh to strong northwest winds are west of the SW Gulf trough as high pressure southward over Mexico. Seas with these winds are about 8 to 9 ft. Broad high pressure is elsewhere over the basin, with the resultant pressure gradient generally allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds east of about 94W, and gentle to moderate northeast winds elsewhere west of 94W. Seas are mostly in the moderate range. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds west of the SW Gulf will diminish to fresh speeds late tonight. A tightening pressure gradient between the ridge and a low pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas over the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat. These marine conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds over the southeastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are persistent offshore Colombia to near 13N between 73W and 77W. High pressure north of the area and a nearby stationary frontal boundary support moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the waters north of 20N. Moderate to fresh trades along with seas of 3 to 5 ft are found from 11.5N to 16N and east of 80W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will promote gentle to moderate winds through Fri. The pressure gradient between a developing low pressure near the Bahamas and Atlantic high pressure will induce moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the eastern Caribbean beginning Fri night. This weather pattern will also produce gentle to moderate northerly winds over the western part of the basin, with the exception of moderate to fresh northeast winds in the Yucatan Channel, and mainly light to gentle winds over the central Caribbean. These marine conditions are forecast to last through the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is analyzed from 31N64W to 27N70W and to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba. Scattered showers are occurring near this boundary. Ahead of it, a trough extends from near 26N68W to 23N72W and to the Windward Passage. Numerous moderate convection is seen from 22N to 27N between 66W and 72W. Overnight scatterometer data highlighted moderate to fresh north to northeast winds behind the front. Seas over these waters are in the 8 to 13 ft range per latest satellite altimeter data and buoy observations. Farther east, weak low pressure of 1012 mb is near 28N57W. It is along a NW to SE oriented trough that extends from near 3163W to the low and continues southeastward to near 24N54W. The combination of these features with a broad upper- level trough in the vicinity will continue to result in a large area of numerous to isolated strong convection over the waters from 22N to 30N between 45W and 57W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds along with moderate seas are east of the surface trough. Meanwhile, well east of the Lesser Antilles, an area of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms is from 12N to 17N between 47W and 54W. Isolated showers are from 13N to 18N between 38W and 47W. To the NE, a trough extends from 30N24W to 22N23W. No deep convection is noted with this feature. Latest scatterometer data shows light to gentle northeast to east winds within 180 nm either side of the trough from 22N to 24N and moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of 24N between 16W and 34W. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic east of about 55W is under the influence of strong high pressure ridging, with the parent high center of 1031 mb located to the north of the Azores. The related pressure gradient is maintaining moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds later today while seas will slowly subside across the waters W of 65W and NE of the Bahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late on Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure develops near the Bahamas along a remnant frontal trough. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over the waters roughly NW of a line from near 31N60W to the northern Bahamas on Sun. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC212033CCA_C_KWBC_20261021203433_38011292-6180-TWDAT.txt ****0000006425**** AXNT20 KNHC 212033 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026 Corrected Caribbean Sea section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W, and continues west-southwestward to 08N31W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N40W and to near 09N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough between the coast of Africa and 17W. Similar activity is within 60 nm south of the trough between 24W-27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A trough is in the SW Gulf from near 21N95W to 18N94W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm west of the trough from 19N to 21N, and within 90 nm east of the trough south of 19N. Another trough extends from near Corpus Christi to 27N96W and to 24N96.5W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 30 nm east of the trough from 27N to 28N. Fresh to strong northwest winds are west of the SW Gulf trough as high pressure builds southward over Mexico. Seas with these winds are about 8 to 9 ft. Broad high pressure is elsewhere over the basin, with the resultant pressure gradient generally allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds east of about 94W, and gentle to moderate northeast winds elsewhere west of 94W. Seas are mostly in the moderate range. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds west of the SW Gulf will diminish to fresh speeds late tonight. A tightening pressure gradient between the ridge and a low pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas over the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat. These marine conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds over the southeastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are persistent offshore Colombia to near 13N between 73W and 77W. High pressure north of the area, and a nearby stationary frontal boundary support moderate to fresh northeast winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the waters north of 20N. Moderate to fresh trades along with seas of 3 to 5 ft are found from 11.5N to 16N and east of 80W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will promote gentle to moderate winds through Fri. The pressure gradient between a developing low pressure near the Bahamas and Atlantic high pressure will induce moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the eastern Caribbean beginning Fri night. This weather pattern will also produce gentle to moderate northerly winds over the western part of the basin, with the exception of moderate to fresh northeast winds in the Yucatan Channel, and mainly light to gentle winds over the central Caribbean. These marine conditions are forecast to last through the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is analyzed from 31N64W to 27N70W and to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba. Scattered showers are occurring near this boundary. Ahead of it, a trough extends from near 26N68W to 23N72W and to the Windward Passage. Numerous moderate convection is seen from 22N to 27N between 66W and 72W. Overnight scatterometer data highlighted moderate to fresh north to northeast winds behind the front. Seas over these waters are in the 8 to 13 ft range per latest satellite altimeter data and buoy observations. Farther east, weak low pressure of 1012 mb is near 28N57W. It is along a NW to SE oriented trough that extends from near 3163W to the low and continues southeastward to near 24N54W. The combination of these features with a broad upper- level trough in the vicinity will continue to result in a large area of numerous to isolated strong convection over the waters from 22N to 30N between 45W and 57W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds along with moderate seas are east of the surface trough. Meanwhile, well east of the Lesser Antilles, an area of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms is from 12N to 17N between 47W and 54W. Isolated showers are from 13N to 18N between 38W and 47W. To the NE, a trough extends from 30N24W to 22N23W. No deep convection is noted with this feature. Latest scatterometer data shows light to gentle northeast to east winds within 180 nm either side of the trough from 22N to 24N and moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of 24N between 16W and 34W. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic east of about 55W is under the influence of strong high pressure ridging, with the parent high center of 1031 mb located to the north of the Azores. The related pressure gradient is maintaining moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds later today while seas will slowly subside across the waters W of 65W and NE of the Bahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late on Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure develops near the Bahamas along a remnant frontal trough. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over the waters roughly NW of a line from near 31N60W to the northern Bahamas on Sun. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC212120_C_KWBC_20261021212033_38011292-6182-TWDAT.txt ****0000004547**** AXNT20 KNHC 212120 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W and continues to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends from 08N30W to near 08N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 15W and 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A trough is in the W Gulf from near Corpus Cristi to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm of the trough south of 22N. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters. Strong to near- gale winds are west of the trough and south of 21N, where rough seas prevail. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern of the United States has a ridge extending into the Gulf region. This system supports moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds, with the exception of strong to near-gale force NW winds over the SW Gulf. The latter winds will persist through tonight. A tightening pressure gradient between the above mentioned ridge and a low pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the eastern Gulf Fri night into Sat. These marine conditions will spread westward to the central Gulf Sat night through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to 12 or 13 ft with these winds over the SE Gulf on Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas, across the Caribbean waters. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will promote gentle to moderate winds through Fri. The pressure gradient between a developing low pressure near the Bahamas and the Atlantic ridge will bring moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the eastern Caribbean beginning Fri night. At the same time, strong high pressure over the eastern seaboard and the same low pressure will produce moderate to fresh northerly winds over the western part of the basin, including the Yucatan Channel. Mainly light to gentle winds are expected over the central Caribbean. These marine conditions will persist through the upcoming weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail west of the front. To the east, a 1011 mb low is centered near 29N57W, with a surface trough extending NW to SE through the low. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted east of the trough from 23N to 30N between 42W and 55W. Fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough seas, are east of the trough from 23N to 31N between 50W and 55W. Another trough extends from 31N23W to 22N23W. No significant convection is in the vicinity of the trough. Moderate winds, and moderate seas are N of 24N on either side of the trough between 14W and 32W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and NE swell persist west of a stationary front that extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and to east-central Cuba. Winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by this evening while seas will slowly subside across the waters W of 65W and NE of the Bahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure develops near the Bahamas along a remnant frontal trough. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over the waters roughly NW of a line from near 31N60W to the northern Bahamas on Sun. Mariners should monitor the latest marine forecasts, and have avoidance plans in place. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################