--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC210608_C_KWBC_20260721060909_32440682-5848-TWDAT.txt ****0000006793**** AXNT20 KNHC 210608 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Jul 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Bertha is near 28.2N 85.9W, or about 120 nm S of Panama City, Florida at 11 PM EDT, and is stationary. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Peak seas are 10 ft in the E semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the SW semicircle of Bertha, covering approximately from 25N to 29N between 84W and 91W. A slow west- northwestward or westward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near the Cabo Verde Islands with axis along 25W, from 07N to 19N, moving W at around 5-10 kt. No significant deep convection is presently occurring in association with the wave. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 10N to 22N with axis near 43W, moving W at around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the northern wave environment from 18N to 22N between 42W and 45W. A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 81W south of 19N, moving W at approximately 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 17N between 77W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 09N25W to 10N35W. The ITCZ extends from 10N35W to 07N50W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 19N E of 18W, and from 05N to 12N between 27W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Bertha in the NE Gulf. Tropical Storm Bertha is near 28.2N 85.9W at 11 PM EDT, and is stationary. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Away from the influence of Tropical Storm Bertha, weak high pressure of 1013 mb is centered near 24N92W, covering most of the western half of the Gulf and supporting moderate or weaker winds W of 90W and over the SE Gulf waters. For the forecast, Bertha will move to 28.8N 86.6W Tue morning, 29.1N 87.3W Tue evening, 29.3N 88.1W Wed morning, inland to 29.3N 89.4W Wed evening, inland to 29.3N 90.7W Thu morning, and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.3N 92.1W Thu evening. Bertha will change little in intensity as it moves near 29.3N 94.6W late Fri. Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the rest of the week. Otherwise, high pressure over the western Gulf will become less evident by midweek. After midweek, Atlantic high pressure will extend westward to the central Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Azores-Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure over NW Colombia is resulting in mainly moderate to fresh easterly winds over most of the central, southwest and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterlies are also ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. Offshore Colombia winds are locally strong and seas rough to 9 ft. Except this region, the central and SW basin have moderate seas while slight seas dominate both the E and NW Caribbean regions. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered heavy showers are ongoing over the offshores between Colombia and Panama, associated with the E extension of the E Pacific monsoon. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through Thu. During the same period, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Windward Passage, mainly at night. Pulsing winds reaching fresh speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is located over the central Atlantic from 27N56W to 19N58W, which is generating scattered showers between 50W and 65W. Aside from the convection, recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NE winds W of the trough axis, between 56W and 64W. The scatterometer data also show fresh E winds over the adjacent waters of Hispaniola. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores-Bermuda High, which is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds over the E waters E of 35W with locally strong winds and rough seas in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is offshore central and NE Florida due to the gradient of pressure between the ridge and Tropical Storm Bertha, located in the NE Gulf of America. Seas are moderate between 20W and 67W and mainly slight W of 67W. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will move westward reaching near 70W by Wed afternoon and to near 75W by Thu morning. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected on either side of the trough axis. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere E of the Bahamas through Fri, except S of 23N E of about 77W where mostly fresh trades are expected through the period. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC211025_C_KWBC_20260721102609_9109880-8838-TWDAT.txt ****0000008049**** AXNT20 KNHC 211025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Jul 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Bertha is near 28.7N 86.4W, or about 110 nm S of Panama City, Florida at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Peak seas are to 12 ft in the SE quadrant. Bertha remains a sheared system as observed on satellite imagery, with the low-level center mostly evident north of deep convective activity. This convective activity consists of the numerous moderate to strong type intensity from 25N to 28N between 84W and 88W, and from 25N to 29N between 88W and 92W. Bertha is forecast to maintain a slow northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected today followed by a turn westward by the middle part of this week. On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Bertha is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches through Thu along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida into southern Louisiana, including southern portions of Alabama and Mississippi. This rainfall may produce areas of flash flooding, especially in urban areas. Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near the Cabo Verde Islands with axis along 26W from 08N to 20N moving westward near 10 kt. No significant deep convection is presently noted near the wave as it is surrounded by a rather dry and stable environment. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W from 09N to 23N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern portion of the wave from 20N to 23N, and near its southern portion from 09N to 10N between 42W and 45W. A tropical wave is over the southwestern Caribbean along 82W south of 18N. It is moving westward at an estimated speeds of about 15t kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 11N to 12N. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 15N west of 76W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W, and continues southwestward to 10N24W and to 09N35W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 10N35W to 07N50W and to inland South America at 07N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 18N between the coast of Africa and 20W, also within 120 nm south of the trough between 30W-35W, within 60 nm north of the trough between 21W-24W and within 30 nm of the trough between 35W-39W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Bertha located in the NE Gulf. Aside from Tropical Storm Bertha, which is located over the NE Gulf, roughly about 110 nm S of Panama City, Florida and is the main feature over the basin, weak high pressure of 1014 mb is centered over the western Gulf at near 24N92W. The related gradient is supporting moderate or weaker winds W of 90W and over the southeastern Gulf waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bertha will move to near 29.0N 86.8W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, then begin to weaken as it moves to near 29.4N 87.6W late tonight, to near 29.5N 88.7W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt and inland to near 29.3N 90.5W late Wed night. Bertha is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression near 29.3N 92.2W Thu afternoon, move to near 29.6N 94.2W late Thu night and become a remnant low as it moves to near 30.4N 96.5W late Fri night. Otherwise, the weak high pressure over the western Gulf will not be evident by midweek. After midweek, Atlantic high pressure will extend westward to the central Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Azores-Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure over NW Colombia is resulting in mainly moderate to fresh easterly winds over most of the central, southwest and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterlies are also ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. Offshore Colombia winds are locally strong and seas rough to 9 ft. Except for this part of the sea, the central and SW basin have moderate seas while slight seas dominate both the E and NW Caribbean regions. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, clusters of scattered moderate convection are present over the offshores between Colombia and Panama, associated with the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. During the same period, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Windward Passage, mainly at night. Pulsing winds reaching fresh speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is located over the central Atlantic along a position from near 27N57W to 22N59W and to 16N61W. Another surface trough is to its NE from 31N51W to 24N55W. Satellite imagery shows increasing scattered moderate convection over the waters from 22N to 29N between 53W and 62W, and 25N to 28N between 43W and 53W. Overnight satellite scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh northeast winds between 56W and 64W. The scatterometer data also indicates fresh trades over the adjacent waters of Hispaniola. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores-Bermuda High, which is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds over the E waters E of 35W with locally strong winds and rough seas in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is offshore central and NE Florida due to the gradient of pressure between the ridge and Tropical Storm Bertha, located in the NE Gulf of America. Seas are in the moderate range between 20W and 67W and mainly slight W of 67W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will move westward reaching near 70W by Wed afternoon and to near 75W by Thu morning. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected on either side of the trough axis. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere E of the Bahamas through Fri, except S of 23N E of about 77W where mostly fresh trades are expected through Sat night. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC211729_C_KWBC_20260721173012_9109880-8865-TWDAT.txt ****0000006509**** AXNT20 KNHC 211729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Jul 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Bertha is centered near 29.3N 86.3W at 21/1500 UTC or 60 nm SSW of Panama City Florida, moving NNW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are to 13 ft in the SE quadrant. Bertha remains a sheared system as observed on satellite imagery, with the low-level center mostly evident north of deep convective activity. The convection consists of numerous strong thunderstorms from 26N to 29N between 84W and 92W. Bertha is forecast to turn WNW then W over the next day or so, then continue moving westward at a slow rate of forward speed through midweek. Bertha is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals around 6 inches through Thu along the Gulf Coast and adjacent inland locations from western Florida into southern Louisiana, including southern portions of Alabama and Mississippi. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas. Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is just W of the Cabo Verde Islands along 29W from 09N to 19W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Dry air surrounding the wave is precluding any convection near it at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave is its axis along 47W from 09N to 23N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 20N to 23N between 42W and 51W. A tropical wave over the far SW Caribbean is moving into central America along 83W, S of 18N. It is moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly inland over Honduras and within 90 nm of the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W, and continues southwestward to 10N25W and to 09N35W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N50W and to inland South America at 07N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 18N between the coast of Africa and 20W, also within 120 nm south of the trough between 30W-35W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 21W-24W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Bertha located in the NE Gulf. Aside from Tropical Storm Bertha, weak high pressure of 1013 mb is centered over the western Gulf at near 24N91W. This is supporting moderate or weaker winds W of 90W and over the southeastern Gulf waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bertha is near 29.2N 86.2W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving slowly north-northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Bertha will move to 29.4N 87.0W this evening, then weaken slightly as it moves to 29.5N 88.0W Wed morning. Bertha will continue to 29.4N 89.5W Wed evening, then reach 29.3N 91.3W by Thu morning. Bertha will weaken to a tropical depression near 29.4N 93.1W Thu evening off Louisiana, and then move inland near the Sabine Pass to 29.9N 94.9W Fri morning. Elsewhere, weak high pressure over the western Gulf will dissipate by midweek. After midweek, Atlantic high pressure will extend westward to the central Gulf following Bertha. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Azores-Bermuda High and lower pressure over NW Colombia is resulting in moderate to fresh easterly winds over most of the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterlies are also ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. Offshore Colombia winds are locally strong and seas rough to 9 ft, otherwise moderate seas prevail. For the remainder of the basin, winds are moderate or weaker, with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. During the same period, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Windward Passage, mainly at night. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layer trough axis extends SW from 31N51W to 16N61W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring W of this axis from 22N to 30N, westward to 65W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in this zone of convection. E of 45W, from 15N to 25N, moderate to fresh trades dominate. Elsewhere in the basin, winds are moderate or weaker. Moderate seas prevail basin-wide. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will move westward reaching near 70W by Wed afternoon and to near 75W by Thu morning. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected on either side of the trough axis. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere E of the Bahamas through Fri, except S of 23N E of about 77W where mostly fresh trades are expected through Sat night. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################