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         TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES        

T1T2: AX
A1A2: NT

Date: 2026-05-12

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Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC120509_C_KWBC_20260512051045_9109880-3049-TWDAT.txt

****0000005134****
AXNT20 KNHC 120509

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Tue May 12 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0500 UTC.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W from 02S

to 10N, and is moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection

is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below.



A tropical wave has its axis near 60W from 15N southward to the 

coastal border of Venezuela and Guyana. This wave is moving

westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen S of 

10N and W of 56W.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of

Africa near 11N16W and continues SW to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends 

from 02S32W to the coast of Brazil at 01N50W. Scattered moderate 

and isolated strong convection is seen S of 04N and W of 35W. More

scattered moderate convection is seen S of 06N between 16W and 

26W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A weak cold front extends from the south-central LA coast to the

NE Mexican coast near 25N98W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed

from offshore Panama City, FL to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered

moderate to strong convection is occurring near Veracruz, 

enhanced by the trough offshore. Scattered showers and 

thunderstorms are occurring in the NE Gulf. Moderate to fresh N to

NE winds are occurring behind the front as well as along the coast

of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to locally strong N winds are

occurring offshore Veracruz per a recent scatterometer pass. 

Winds are gentle to moderate or weaker elsewhere. Slight seas 

prevail across the Gulf.



For the forecast, a weak cold front currently over the NW Gulf 

will steadily move southeastward and extend from the Big Bend of 

Florida to the Bay of Campeche by Tue morning, then stall and 

dissipate on Wed. Winds are generally moderate or weaker on either

side of the front, though showers and thunderstorms will continue

tonight in the vicinity of the front. High pressure and quiescent

conditions will dominate on Wed and Thu. Looking ahead, another 

weak cold front should enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate 

over the E Gulf on Fri. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Dry weather conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea, except

for some convection near and over Panama due to the extension of

the Pacific monsoon trough along about 10N. The subtropical ridge

over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and moderate

to rough seas across the south-central to southwest Caribbean.

Winds are locally near gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela, per a

recent scatterometer pass. Moderate to locally fresh easterly 

breezes and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the 

central and eastern Caribbean along with 4-7 ft seas, as well as 

in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 

slight to moderate seas are prevalent.



For the forecast, a moderate gradient between the Bermuda-Azores 

High north of the area and the Colombian Low will continue to 

force fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean 

for the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are

forecast across the remainder of forecast waters. Large E swell 

will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from Wed morning into 

the weekend. 

 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Divergence aloft and abundant moisture inflow from the Gulf of

America result in isolated to widely scattered showers and 

isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters N of 26N and W of

70W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the 

influence of a broad ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh 

winds and moderate to locally rough seas S of 25N. Moderate or 

weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere, except for

locally rough seas N of 29N between 20W and 25W in northerly 

swells.



For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will reach the 

waters off of NE Florida early Tue morning, extend along 30N and 

become stationary Wed morning, then it will lift north of our 

waters as a warm front by Thu morning. While winds should be fresh

or weaker on either side of the front, scattered showers and 

thunderstorms should occur along the front. Additionally, trades 

just north of Hispaniola will pulse fresh to strong tonight and 

Tue night. Looking ahead, another weak cold front will reach the 

Atlantic from the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W 

to 25N72W Fri morning, and progressing from 31N72W to 26N65W on 

Sat morning. S winds ahead of the front and north of 28N will be 

fresh to strong. 



$$

Adams


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