--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-04-15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC150434_C_KWBC_20260415043509_9109880-1230-TWDAT.txt ****0000004244**** AXNT20 KNHC 150434 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Apr 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Guinea near 10N14W, then continues southward to 06N15W. The ITCZ extends from 06N15W to 00N28W to 02S45W to coastal Brazil. Isolated moderate convection extends from 05N southward, east of 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1022 mb high is centered near 29N84W in the NE Gulf. Winds in the Florida Straits and just north of Yucatan are NE to E fresh. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 2-5 ft across the Gulf this evening. No deep convection is occurring. For the forecast, a ridge extends from high pressure over the west-central Atlantic across Florida into the northern Gulf. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly moderate seas through Sat, except in the NE and N-central parts of the basin where mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Expect stronger winds to pulse off the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-low is inducing a surface trough that extends from the Atlantic southward to the Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the Leeward Islands. No other deep convection is noted across the Caribbean. A high pressure ridge north of the Bahamas is forcing fresh to strong NE winds with seas 5-7 ft through the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba. Fresh to locally strong winds with seas 5-6 ft are also occurring just north of Colombia. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 3-5 ft. For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas off the coast of Colombia overnight. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola overnight as well. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-low is inducing a surface trough that extends from 29N61W southwestward to the Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 18N-23N between 60W-65W. Farther northeast, a stationary front extends from 28N50W to beyond 31N35W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the front. An expansive Bermuda-Azores High north of our waters is interacting with the surface trough to cause fresh to strong NE winds from Bermuda, across the Bahamas, and to the Cuban coast. Seas are 8-12 ft east of the Bahamas. A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades over the remainder of the forecast waters. Large NE swell is causing seas of 8-10 ft north of 27N between 35W-50W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. Near the coast of NW Africa, NE winds are fresh to strong north of 20N and east of 20W with seas 8-11 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will drift west toward Hispaniola on Wed, and the southeastern Bahamas on Thu, then dissipate Fri. Strong NE winds and rough seas will persist west of the trough through mid week, with conditions gradually improving thereafter as the trough weakens and leaves weak high pressure over the region. Looking ahead, strong N winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. $$ Landsea/Rubio ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC150946_C_KWBC_20260415094645_38666572-1226-TWDAT.txt ****0000005081**** AXNT20 KNHC 150946 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Apr 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Liberia near 06N10W, then continues SW to 03N13W. The ITCZ extends from 03N13W to 01S30W to NE Brazil near 02S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 10W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere S of 04N between 10W and 41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge extends from high pressure over the west-central Atlantic across Florida into the northern Gulf. Under the influence of this system, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to locally rough seas are noted over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Similar wind speeds are observed off the Yucatan peninsula, particularly from 20N to 22.5N between 89W and 93W. These winds are the result of local effects associated with a thermal trough. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are observed elsewhere, except in the NE Gulf where light to gentle winds and slight seas are occurring. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are moving across South Florida, the Florida Keys and the Straits of Florida into the SE Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place and maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly moderate seas through Sat, except in the NE and N-central parts of the basin where mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Expect stronger winds to pulse off the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-low is inducing a surface trough that extends from the Atlantic southward to Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the northern Leeward Islands. A band-like of multilayer clouds, associated with strong westerly winds aloft, extends from western Venezuela across the SE Caribbean and the Windward Islands into the tropical Atlantic. Some convective activity is also noted in the Windward Islands. A ridge north of the Bahamas is forcing fresh to strong NE winds with seas 5 to 7 ft through the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba. Fresh to locally strong winds with seas 5 to 7 ft are also occurring just north of Colombia. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh trade winds and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia through tonight, then mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate seas will persist south of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage through tonight. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... As previously mentioned, an upper-low is inducing a surface trough that extends from 31N63W southward to Puerto Rico. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 18N to 23N between 60W and 65W. Farther northeast, a stationary front extends from 31N35W to 30N50W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the front. A Bermuda- Azores High located north of the forecast waters is interacting with the surface trough to cause fresh to strong NE winds from Bermuda, across the Bahamas, and to the Cuban coast. Seas are 8 to 11 ft east of the Bahamas per altimeter data. A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure in the vicinity over the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades and moderate to rough seas over the remainder of the forecast waters. Near the coast of NW Africa, NE winds are fresh to strong north of 27N and east of 16W with seas of 8 to 10 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned surface trough will drift west toward Hispaniola today, then will remain nearly stationary through Fri while gradually dissipating. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will persist west of the trough through tonight, with conditions gradually improving thereafter as the trough weakens. High pressure will follow the trough. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC151637_C_KWBC_20260415163847_38666572-1252-TWDAT.txt ****0000004493**** AXNT20 KNHC 151637 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Apr 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1637 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12.5W, then continues SW to 02N15.5W. The ITCZ extends from 02N15.5W to 02S32W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 06S to 05N between 12W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02S to 04N between 37W and 44W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge extends from high pressure over the west-central Atlantic across Florida into the Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the diurnal trough over the Bay of Campeche supports moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas 4 to 6 ft over the SW Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SE winds prevail along seas 2 to 5 ft, except for the NE Gulf where light to gentle winds prevail along with seas 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, a ridge extends from high pressure over the west- central Atlantic across Florida into the Gulf. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly moderate seas through Sat, except in the NE and N-central parts of the basin where mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Expect stronger winds to pulse off the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-low is inducing a surface trough that extends from the Atlantic southward to north of the Mona Passage. A ridge north of the Bahamas is forcing moderate to locally fresh NE winds with seas 4 to 5 ft through the Windward Passage and to the lee of Cuba. Fresh to locally strong winds with seas 4 to 6 ft are also occurring just north of Colombia. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh trade winds and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia through tonight, then mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate seas will persist south of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage through tonight. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... As previously mentioned, an upper-low is inducing a surface trough that extends from 29N64W southward to north of the Mona Passage. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 19N to 25N between 60W and 67W. Farther northeast, a stationary front extends from 31N35W to 29.5N47W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the front. A Bermuda- Azores High located north of the forecast waters is interacting with the surface trough to cause moderate to fresh NE winds from Bermuda, across the Bahamas, and to the Cuban coast. Seas are 5 to 9 ft east of the Bahamas. A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda- Azores High and lower pressure in the vicinity over the ITCZ is forcing moderate to locally fresh NE to E trades and moderate to rough seas over the remainder of the forecast waters. Near the coast of NW Africa, NE winds are fresh to strong north of 29N and east of 17W with seas of 7 to 9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough between Bermuda and Puerto Rico will drift west toward Hispaniola today, then will remain nearly stationary through Fri while gradually dissipating. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will persist west of the trough through tonight, with conditions gradually improving thereafter as the trough weakens. High pressure will follow the trough. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################