--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC140402_C_KWBC_20260514040307_9109880-3182-TWDAT.txt ****0000005076**** AXNT20 KNHC 140402 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu May 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced over the far eastern Atlantic based on recent satellite imagery, total precipitable water and Hovmoller data. The wave is along 22W, south of 11N, moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A tropical wave is analyzed along 41W, south of 13N, moving westward at 10 kt. The wave is devoid of significant deep convection at this time, except south of 04N where it is interacting with the ITCZ. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N23W to 00N40W and then from 00N43W to 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 06N and west of 29W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak stationary front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low pres near 31N77W to central Florida and then to near northern Yucatan. A few showers are seen in the SE Gulf waters and the Florida Straits. The rest of the basin is under a weak high pressure system and a continental dry airmass. The weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, the stalled front extending from Fort Myers, Florida to just north of the northeast portion of the Yucatan Peninsula will drift south through Thu while weakening. Otherwise, weak high pressure over the basin will maintain rather quiet conditions through Thu. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the eastern Gulf on Fri. Southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend and into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the western extension of Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in west Texas. . ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1029 mb high pressure system in the NW Atlantic is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft in the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are present in the north-central, eastern and SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through Mon night. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters through early next week ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low pres near 31N77W to central Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted ahead of this boundary, especially north of 27N. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are observed north of 28N and between 65W and 75W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found south of 28N and between 55W and 75W. The pressure gradient between the 1035 mb high pressure system well north of the Azores and lower pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas from 13N to 26N and east of 30W. Meanwhile in the rest of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, mainly south of 28N and between 30W and 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas prevail. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front off northeastern Florida will merge with a weak cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast on Thu. The cold front will extend from near 31N69W to 26N72W and weakening stationary front to near the northern Bahamas Fri afternoon, from near 31N62W to 26N70W early on Sat, then become a weakening stationary front from near 31N60W to 27N69W by late Sat night as high pressure N of the area shifts eastward while it strengthens some. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected N of 27N through Fri while gradually lifting N of the area. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC141052_C_KWBC_20260514105236_32440682-178-TWDAT.txt ****0000006810**** AXNT20 KNHC 141052 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu May 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24W from 01N to 13N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. The wave is in a very dry surrounding environment marked by a dense area of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) as seen in the GOES-E dust and GEO color imagery. Isolated showers are near and along the wave axis from 02N to 05N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W from 01N to 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. See the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below for convection near the southern portion of this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N23W, then breaks due to the tropical wave near 24W, and continues at 04N25W to 01N34W to just west of the other wave near 01N45W and continues to just inland Brazil near 02N51W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between 44W-51W and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 36W-44W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak stationary front extends southwestward from low pressure of 1008 mb that is located east of central Florida near 29N80W to southwest Florida and continues to just northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers are southeast of the frontal boundary. The activity becomes scattered in coverage across the Straits of Florida. The remainder of the basin is under a weak high pressure system and a continental dry airmass. The related weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, the entire frontal boundary will slowly move southeastward and stall over the Straits of Florida today and lose definition through Fri. Otherwise, weak high pressure over the basin will maintain rather quiet conditions throughout today. Another weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf tonight and dissipate over the eastern Gulf on Fri. Southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend and into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the western extension of Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in west Texas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The interaction between strong high pressure centered well north of the basin over the central Atlantic, with relatively lower pressures in northern South America is supporting a pressure gradient that is sustaining fresh to strong trades in the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are outside the Gulf of Venezuela per an overnight altimeter satellite data pass. Overnight scatterometer satellite data indicates moderate to fresh trades across north-central, eastern and southwestern portions of the sea while light to gentle winds and slight seas are elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient in place will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through Tue. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters through late Sun, then begin to subside on Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front extends southwestward from a 1007 mb low that is centered near 32N75W to a 1008 mn low at 29N80W, and continues southwestward to inland Florida near Vero Beach. Water vapor imagery shows a broad mid to upper-level trough across the same area as the front. Very dry sinking air with northwest flow aloft is moving across most of the western half of the basin as the trough advances eastward. To the east of trough, an area of numerous moderate to strong convection is evident north of 27N between 65W and 71W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 22N to 27N between 65W and 73W, and also from 22N to 27N between 73W and 80W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted elsewhere south of 30N and west of about 58W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are north of about 27N between 63W and 73W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft as noted by Sofar Ocean Spotter buoys in the described area, and by an overnight altimeter satellite pass. A portion of a stationary front is along 31N between 51W and 56W. Isolated showers are possible along and near the frontal boundary. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a rather broad high pressure ridge axis. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are south of 28N and between 55W and 75W, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in long-period east swell south of 16N between 55W and 60W. The pressure gradient between a strong 1034 mb high pressure center centered well north of the Azores and lower pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas roughly from 13N to 26N and east of 30W. Over the rest of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, mainly south of 28N and between 30W and 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas prevail. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front off northeastern Florida will merge with a weak cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast today. The cold front will extend from near 31N69W to 26N72W and as a weakening stationary front to near the northern Bahamas Fri afternoon, from near 31N62W to 26N70W early on Sat, then become a weakening stationary front from near 31N60W to 27N69W by late Sat night as high pressure N of the area shifts eastward while it strengthens some. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the central and eastern waters N of about 27N through Fri while gradually lifting N of the area. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC141101_C_KWBC_20260514110210_9109880-3203-TWDAT.txt ****0000006804**** AXNT20 KNHC 141101 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu May 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 24W from 01N to 13N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. The wave is in a very dry surrounding environment marked by a dense area of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) as seen in the GOES-E dust and GEO color imagery. Isolated showers are near and along the wave axis from 02N to 05N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W from 01N to 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. See the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below for convection near the southern portion of this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N23W, then breaks due to the tropical wave near 24W, and continues at 04N25W to 01N34W to just west of the other wave near 01N45W and to just inland Brazil near 02N51W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between 44W-51W and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 36W-44W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak stationary front extends southwestward from low pressure of 1008 mb that is located east of central Florida near 29N80W to southwest Florida, and continues to just northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers are southeast of the frontal boundary. The activity becomes scattered in coverage across the Straits of Florida. The remainder of the basin is under a weak high pressure system and a continental dry airmass. The related weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, the entire frontal boundary will slowly move southeastward and stall over the Straits of Florida today and lose definition through Fri. Otherwise, weak high pressure over the basin will maintain rather quiet conditions throughout today. Another weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf tonight and dissipate over the eastern Gulf on Fri. Southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend and into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the western extension of Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in west Texas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The interaction between strong high pressure centered well north of the basin over the central Atlantic, with relatively lower pressures in northern South America is supporting a pressure gradient that is sustaining fresh to strong trades in the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are outside the Gulf of Venezuela per an overnight altimeter satellite data pass. Overnight scatterometer satellite data indicates moderate to fresh trades across north-central, eastern and southwestern portions of the sea while light to gentle winds and slight seas are elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient in place will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through Tue. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters through late Sun, then begin to subside on Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front extends southwestward from a 1007 mb low that is centered near 32N75W to a 1008 mb low at 29N80W, and continues southwestward to inland Florida near Vero Beach. Water vapor imagery shows a broad mid to upper-level trough across the same area as the front. Very dry sinking air with northwest flow aloft is moving across most of the western half of the basin as the trough advances eastward. To the east of trough, an area of numerous moderate to strong convection is evident north of 27N between 65W and 71W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 22N to 27N between 65W and 73W, and also from 22N to 27N between 73W and 80W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted elsewhere south of 30N and west of about 58W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are north of about 27N between 63W and 73W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft as noted by Sofar Ocean Spotter buoys in the described area, and by an overnight altimeter satellite pass. A portion of a stationary front is along 31N between 51W and 56W. Isolated showers are possible along and near the frontal boundary. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic west of 55W is dominated by a rather broad high pressure ridge axis. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are south of 28N and between 55W and 75W, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in long- period east swell south of 16N between 55W and 60W. The pressure gradient between a strong 1034 mb high pressure center centered well north of the Azores and lower pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas roughly from 13N to 26N and east of 30W. Over the rest of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, mainly south of 28N and between 30W and 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas prevail. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front off northeastern Florida will merge with a weak cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast today. The cold front will extend from near 31N69W to 26N72W and as a weakening stationary front to near the northern Bahamas Fri afternoon, from near 31N62W to 26N70W early on Sat, then become a weakening stationary front from near 31N60W to 27N69W by late Sat night as high pressure N of the area shifts eastward while it strengthens some. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the central and eastern waters N of about 27N through Fri while gradually lifting N of the area. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC141456_C_KWBC_20260514145738_32440682-189-TWDAT.txt ****0000005320**** AXNT20 KNHC 141456 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu May 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 25W from 01N to 13N, moving westward at about 10 kt. The wave is in a very dry surrounding environment marked by a dense area of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) as seen in the GOES-E dust and GEO color imagery. Scattered showers are along the wave axis from 03N to 05N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46.5W from 01N to 13N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is S of 05N and W of 44W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues from 03N27W to 02N43W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 240 nm on either side of the boundaries and W of 19W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak stationary front extends southwestward from low pressure of 1010 mb that is located over northern Bahamas near 28N78W and continues to northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the basin is under a weak high pressure system centered near 28N93W. The related weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, the frontal boundary over the SE Gulf will slowly move southeastward and stall over the Straits of Florida today and lose definition through Fri. Otherwise, weak high pressure over the basin will maintain rather quiet conditions today. Another weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf tonight and dissipate over the eastern Gulf on Fri. Southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend and into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the western extension of Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in west Texas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The interaction between strong high pressure centered well north of the basin over the central Atlantic, with relatively lower pressures in northern South America is supporting a pressure gradient that is sustaining fresh to strong trades in the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are outside the Gulf of Venezuela per recent altimeter satellite data pass. Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates moderate to fresh trades across north-central, eastern and southwestern portions of the sea while light to gentle winds and slight seas are elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through Tue. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters through late Sun, then begin to subside on Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal system extends across the western Atlantic, with 1010 mb low pres centered near 28N78W. A cold front is analyzed from 31N72W to the low to 27N80W. Water vapor imagery shows a broad mid to upper-level trough across the same area as the front. Very dry sinking air with northwest flow aloft is moving across most of the western half of the basin as the trough advances eastward. To the east of trough, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is evident north of 24N between 62W and 78W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are north of about 27N between 63W and 73W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft as noted by Sofar Ocean Spotter buoys in the described area, and by an altimeter satellite pass. A portion of a stationary front is along 31N between 48W and 56W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic west of 55W is dominated by a rather broad high pressure ridge axis. Moderate to fresh southeast to south winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are south of 28N and between 55W and 75W, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in long- period east swell south of 16N between 55W and 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a strong 1034 mb high pressure center centered well north of the Azores and lower pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas roughly from 13N to 26N and east of 30W. Over the rest of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, mainly south of 28N and between 30W and 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas prevail. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are noted. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################