--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2025-11-28 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC280624_C_KWBC_20251128062510_29294990-1048-TWDAT.txt ****0000005594**** AXNT20 KNHC 280624 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Nov 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent. An ITCZ extends westward from off the coast of northern Sierra Leone across 07N30W to 07N50W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 12N and between 17W and 51W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic across the Florida Straits and western Cuba, then through the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche to near Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 70 nm along either side of the front. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas dominate the Gulf south of 27N. North of 27N, moderate to fresh N to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, the front is expected to exit the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing along and ahead of the front tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front, with conditions improving Fri night through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in the northwestern Gulf Fri night and Sat, ahead of the next front. This next cold front will emerge off the Texas coast early Sun morning and meander slowly southeastward across the northwestern and north-central Gulf Sun through Mon before moving southeastward Mon night and Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough along with divergent flow aloft is causing scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Convergent trade winds are inducing isolated thunderstorms at the northwestern basin, and near Hispaniola and the Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds and 9 to 11 ft seas are present at the south-central basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted for the eastern, north- central and southwestern White House. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail at the northwestern basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the southwestern Caribbean will sustain strong to near-gale force trades over the southwestern and south-central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through Fri morning before diminishing. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere in the eastern and central basin through Sun. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean early Fri morning, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front is expected to stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night, then gradually dissipate over the northwestern Caribbean on Sat. A very weak pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from off the Carolinas coast across 31N73W to beyond the Florida Straits. Scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms are found up to 80 nm along either side. Convergent southerly winds are causing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Puerto Rico and the norther Leeward Islands. At the central Atlantic, a stationary front runs southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 31N35W to 26N48W. Patchy showers are evident near and up to 50 nm south of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted north of the cold front. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds, and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed northerly swells are found from 09N to 31N between 35W and the cold front/Lesser Antilles. Farther south for rest of the Atlantic Basin west of the 35W, gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high over the central Atlantic and low pressure across the SW Caribbean will sustain fresh E winds south of 22N and in the approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before diminishing on Fri. A cold front across the NW waters extends from 31N73W to Key Largo, and is followed by fresh NW to N winds. The cold front will move southeastward and extend from 31N64W through the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate from 31N58W the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, diminishing from west to east Sun. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC281100_C_KWBC_20251128110112_29294990-1068-TWDAT.txt ****0000004825**** AXNT20 KNHC 281100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Nov 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends westward from 08N15W to 08N35W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 15N between 18W and 52W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia offshore waters. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers prevail across the SW and SE Gulf in the wake of a cold front, which tail still reaches the Bay of Campeche. Also with strong high pressure of 1031 mb located over Arkansas, which ridge is building across the Gulf in the wake of the front, a tight pressure gradient is resulting in the continuation of fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft across the basin, except the NW Gulf. Over the NW Gulf, winds are moderate to locally fresh mainly from the east, and seas are moderate to 7 ft. For the forecast, the tail of the cold front is expected to exit completely the Gulf this morning. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front, with conditions improving tonight through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in the NW Gulf tonight and Sat, ahead of the next front. This next cold front will emerge off the Texas coast early Sun morning and meander slowly southeastward across the NW and N central Gulf Sun through Mon before moving southeastward Mon night and Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extending from western Cuba to the NE Yucatan Peninsula is followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft. Scattered showers are also ahead of the front mainly affecting the Yucatan Channel and the Gulf of Honduras. A high pressure system over the north central Atlantic continues to tighten the pressure gradient in the central Caribbean, leading to the continuation of fresh to near gale force winds in the SW basin and portions of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, trades are moderate to fresh and seas are moderate. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain strong to near gale-force trades over the SW and south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through later this morning before diminishing in the afternoon hours. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere in the eastern and central basin through Sun. The cold front is expected to stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then gradually lift N of the area on Sat. A very weak pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front across the NW waters extends from 31N71W to Andros Island to W Cuba and is followed by fresh NW to N winds. The front is also supporting scattered showers ahead and behind it, between Freeport in the Bahamas and 67W. The remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of strong high pressure just west of the Azores. A weakening stationary front extending from 31N35W to 27N48W along with a pair of surface troughs ahead of the front, are supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the central and eastern subtropics along with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high over the central Atlantic and low pressure across the SW Caribbean will sustain fresh E winds south of 25N and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the weekend. The cold front will move southeastward and extend from 31N64W through the central Bahamas tonight, and then dissipate from 31N58W the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, diminishing from west to east Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the N and central Florida offshore waters by Mon night ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the NE Florida coast Tue evening. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC281648_C_KWBC_20251128164856_16515500-669-TWDAT.txt ****0000004307**** AXNT20 KNHC 281648 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Nov 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over the African continent. The ITCZ extends westward from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 27W and 49W, and from 05N to 09N between 15W and 35W. The extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection in the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 13N between 74W and 82W. GULF OF AMERICA... Strong high pressure continues to build across the Gulf in the wake of the cold front that exited the basin earlier this morning. Recent scatterometer and surface observations indicate fresh to strong NE winds across the basin, including within the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 8-10 ft are across the basin south of 26N, including within the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. North of 26N, seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, winds will diminish tonight as high pressure settles into the region, but fresh to strong southerly flow will develop in the NW Gulf Sat ahead of the next cold front. This front will move offshore Texas late Sat night, then stall over the NW basin through Mon before moving SE through the Gulf Mon night and Tue. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize. The latest satellite scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE winds north of the front in the far NW Caribbean, including within the Yucatan Channel. Seas are analyzed as 8-10 ft north of the front, including within the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are along the frontal boundary. Ahead of the front, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over Colombia continues to support fresh to strong trades and 8-10 ft seas across the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, trades are mainly moderate with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain strong trades over the SW and south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, today. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere in the eastern and central basin through Sun. A cold front extending from western Cuba to the NE Yucatan Peninsula is followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas. The front is expected to stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then gradually lift N of the area on Sat. A very weak pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N68W across the central Bahamas to central Cuba. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NW to N winds west of the front. Seas are 4-7 ft behind the front, and scattered showers are along the frontal boundary. Aside from a decaying stationary front and some weak surface troughs in the central Atlantic, the basin is dominated by high pressure centered just west of the Azores. Trades are gentle to moderate, with 4-7 ft seas in open waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic cold front will drift SE through tonight, then stall Sat and dissipate by Sun. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, diminishing from west to east Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the N and central Florida offshore waters Mon night ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the NE Florida coast Tue night. $$ Mahoney ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC282249_C_KWBC_20251128225057_16515500-689-TWDAT.txt ****0000004009**** AXNT20 KNHC 282249 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Nov 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2235 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over the African continent. The ITCZ extends westward from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N35W and to 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 17N and east of 55W. GULF OF AMERICA... A strong high pressure over the Mississippi Valley dominates the Gulf of America, supporting mainly dry conditions. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures associated with a cold front in the NW Caribbean results in fresh to strong N-NE winds over much of the basin and seas of 5-10 ft. The strongest winds are found in SE Gulf and the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel and Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds and associated rough seas will diminish tonight as high pressure builds into the SE U.S. SE return flow will quickly develop in the NW Gulf Sat and reach strong speeds offshore Texas, ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast Sat night, then stall through Mon before moving SE through the basin early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front in the NW Caribbean. Similar convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean due to divergence aloft and convergent surface winds. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are evident behind the frontal boundary, with seas peaking near 10 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and seas of 5-9 ft are present in the central, eastern and SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain fresh to locally strong trades over the SW and south- central Caribbean into tonight, with moderate trades elsewhere in the central and eastern basin prevailing through the weekend as the gradient weakens some. A weakening cold front that extends from central Cuba to Belize will stall tonight then dissipate Sat. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas behind it through the Yucatan Channel will diminish as the front decays. A very weak pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. A strong ridge over the central United States is forcing fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft behind the frontal boundary, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring in the Florida Straits. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic waters, a broad subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores dominates, supporting mainly moderate easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will drift E through Sat, then stall Sat night and dissipate Sun. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing NE winds across the SW Atlantic this weekend. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop offshore NE Florida Mon night ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the NE Florida coast Tue night. $$ Delgado --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC282250_C_KWBC_20251128225116_29294990-1124-TWDAT.txt ****0000004009**** AXNT20 KNHC 282250 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Nov 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2235 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over the African continent. The ITCZ extends westward from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N35W and to 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 17N and east of 55W. GULF OF AMERICA... A strong high pressure over the Mississippi Valley dominates the Gulf of America, supporting mainly dry conditions. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures associated with a cold front in the NW Caribbean results in fresh to strong N-NE winds over much of the basin and seas of 5-10 ft. The strongest winds are found in SE Gulf and the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel and Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds and associated rough seas will diminish tonight as high pressure builds into the SE U.S. SE return flow will quickly develop in the NW Gulf Sat and reach strong speeds offshore Texas, ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast Sat night, then stall through Mon before moving SE through the basin early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of the front in the NW Caribbean. Similar convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean due to divergence aloft and convergent surface winds. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are evident behind the frontal boundary, with seas peaking near 10 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and seas of 5-9 ft are present in the central, eastern and SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain fresh to locally strong trades over the SW and south- central Caribbean into tonight, with moderate trades elsewhere in the central and eastern basin prevailing through the weekend as the gradient weakens some. A weakening cold front that extends from central Cuba to Belize will stall tonight then dissipate Sat. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas behind it through the Yucatan Channel will diminish as the front decays. A very weak pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. A strong ridge over the central United States is forcing fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft behind the frontal boundary, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring in the Florida Straits. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic waters, a broad subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores dominates, supporting mainly moderate easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will drift E through Sat, then stall Sat night and dissipate Sun. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing NE winds across the SW Atlantic this weekend. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop offshore NE Florida Mon night ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the NE Florida coast Tue night. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################