--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC210357_C_KWBC_20260521035750_49676782-3642-TWDAT.txt ****0000005305**** AXNT20 KNHC 210357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu May 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W, south of 16N and moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen over the northwestern Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic the coast of Senegal near 13N17W, then curves southwestward to near 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 08N. The strongest convection is evident off Liberia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Broad high pressure over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found off northern Yucatan and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. A few showers are noted near the western coast of Florida and off Tamaulipas. Generally dry conditions dominate the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little during the forecast period. The pressure gradient between it and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northern Mexico will generally maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow across the basin through the weekend, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours. A series of upper-level disturbances in a very moist and unstable environment is expected to keep unsettled weather conditions in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the NW Gulf for the next few days. Mariners transiting through these waters are advised to be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions with this activity. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An extensive subtropical ridge situated near Bermuda dominate the Caribbean waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. Divergence aloft and diurnal heating are supporting showers and isolated thunderstorms across Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica and nearby waters. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- central portion of the Caribbean through the weekend. These trades will continue to bring rough seas to that portion of the basin. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft associated with an upper low near 31N77W and tropical moisture combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between 70W and 77W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge near Bermuda. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found off northern Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted south of 27N and west of 55W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N29W to 25N57W and a few showers are noted ahead of the front. Rough seas are occurring behind the front, east of 43W. The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure over France. A moderate pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Africa results in moderate to fresh northerly winds from 14N to 22N and east of 22W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 23N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a large mid to upper-level low and accompanying surface trough northeast of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from off the central Bahamas southward to the Windward Passage through at least Thu evening. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rain reducing visibility. Southeast winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings through the next few days. Otherwise, high pressure centered just north of the area will maintain rather quite marine conditions through the period. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC210917_C_KWBC_20260521091752_49676782-3662-TWDAT.txt ****0000004855**** AXNT20 KNHC 210917 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu May 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W, south of 16N and moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to near 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 08N. The strongest convection is evident off Liberia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1025 mb high pressure system centered east of Bermuda extends into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. A few showers are occurring in the nearshore waters of the NW Gulf. Generally dry conditions dominate the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will change little during the forecast period. The pressure gradient between it and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northern Mexico will generally maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow across the basin through the weekend, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours. A series of upper-level disturbances in a very moist and unstable environment is expected to keep unsettled weather conditions in the form of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the NW Gulf for the next few days. Mariners transiting through these waters are advised to be prepared for rapidly changing weather conditions with this activity. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad ridge located east of Bermuda forces fresh to near gale- force easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. A few showers are noted south of Cuba, while generally dry conditions prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, he pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central portion of the Caribbean through the weekend. These trades will continue to bring rough seas to that portion of the basin. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low situated north of the NW Bahamas continues to enhance the shower activity between 71W and 76W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge east of Bermuda. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted south of 27N and west of 55W. A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N28W and continues southwestward to 26N41W, followed by a stationary front to 27N62W. A few light showers are evident ahead of these fronts. The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure over France. A moderate pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Africa results in moderate to fresh northerly winds from 14N to 22N and east of 22W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 23N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a large mid to upper-level low and accompanying surface trough northeast of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from off the central Bahamas southward to the Windward Passage through at least Thu evening. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rain reducing visibility. Southeast winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings through the next few days. Otherwise, high pressure centered just north of the area will maintain rather quite marine conditions through the period. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC211658_C_KWBC_20260521165903_47448518-3779-TWDAT.txt ****0000005335**** AXNT20 KNHC 211658 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu May 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1657 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic was introduced in the 12Z surface analysis. This wave is near 36W, south of 00N. Isolated moderate convection is found along the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has been repositioned to near 74W, south of 15N based on tropical wave diagnostics. This wave is currently interacting with lower pressures near Colombia and the eastern end of the Eastern Pacific Monsoon Trough. Thus, scattered moderate convection is depicted south of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to near 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 05N23W to 02N33W. Another portion of the ITCZ extends from 04N39.5W to 07N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 05N and east of 23W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted south of 09N between 39W and 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1026 mb high pressure system centered east of Bermuda extends into the eastern Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas 2 to 4 ft. A surface trough over the NW Gulf is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms north of 22N and west of 90W. Winds and seas near this convection might be locally higher. For the forecast, the high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little during the forecast period. The pressure gradient between it and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northern Mexico will generally maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow across the basin through the weekend, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours. A series of upper-level disturbances in a very moist and unstable environment is expected to keep unsettled weather conditions in the form of large thunderstorm complexes that will be moving ENE across the NW and west-central Gulf sections during the next few days. Mariners transiting through these waters should check the latest forecast and weather conditions prior to beginning or continuing their transits. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad ridge located east of Bermuda forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. A few showers are noted south of Cuba and over the Yucatan Channel, while generally dry conditions prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- central portion of the Caribbean into early next week. These trades will continue to bring rough seas to that portion of the basin. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low situated north of the NW Bahamas continues to enhance the shower activity between 68W and 76W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge east of Bermuda. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted south of 27N and west of 55W. A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N27W and continues southwestward to 27N62W. A few light showers are evident ahead of this front. The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure over France. A moderate pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Africa results in moderate to fresh northerly winds from 10N to 23N and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the large mid to upper-level low north of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from east of the Bahamas to near 71W and southward to near the southeastern Bahamas today through early Fri. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rain reducing visibility. Southeast winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings through the next few days. Otherwise, high pressure centered just north of the area will maintain rather quite marine conditions through the period. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC212300_C_KWBC_20260521230105_47448518-3798-TWDAT.txt ****0000006313**** AXNT20 KNHC 212300 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri May 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic is analyzed near 37W, south of 10N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is found near the wave axis. An Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 75W, south of 15N based on tropical wave diagnostics, moving westward near 10 kt. This wave is currently interacting with lower pressures near Colombia and the eastern end of the Eastern Pacific Monsoon Trough. Thus, scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is depicted south of 10N and over land behind the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic the coast near 12.5N16.5W, then curves southwestward to near 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N23W to 00.5N34W. Another portion of the ITCZ then extends from 01N39W to the coast of Brazil at 02N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present south of 06.5N and east of 27W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 01N to 04N between 27W and 34W, and south of 08.5N between 44W and 53W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1025 mb high pressure system centered east of Bermuda extends a ridge into the eastern Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker E to SE winds and seas 2 to 4 ft across the eastern half of the basin and southwest portions. Numerous showers and thunderstorms developed earlier this afternoon about a surface trough now extending from the southwest Louisiana coast to just offshore of Tampico Mexico. Areas of heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds associated with this activity have formed an outflow boundary that extends from offshore of central Louisiana the 23N96W. Mid- afternoon satellite scatterometer winds showed strong and gusty winds to near gale-force between the trough and the outflow boundary, where seas have to be locally higher. This convection has since begun to diminish in coverage and intensity. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little during the forecast period. The pressure gradient between it and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northern Mexico will generally maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow across the basin through the weekend, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours. A series of upper-level disturbances moving through a very moist and unstable environment are expected to keep unsettled weather conditions in the form of large thunderstorm complexes, that will be moving ENE across the NW and west-central Gulf sections during the next few days. Mariners transiting through these waters should check the latest forecast and weather conditions prior to beginning or continuing their transits. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad ridge, centered on a 1025 mb high located east of Bermuda, extends into the eastern Gulf of America. The resultant pressure gradient is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-9 ft across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. Scattered light to moderate showers and moving across the northeast Caribbean, as well as NW portions. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- central portion of the Caribbean into early next week. These trades will continue to bring rough seas to that portion of the basin. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades will remain elsewhere through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad middle to upper-level low is situated across the N half of the Bahamas and adjacent waters between 70W and 80W. This feature continues to enhance the shower activity between 69W and 75W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 50W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered east of Bermuda. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted south of 24N and west of 50W. A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N25W and continues southwestward to 24N50W to 27N63W. A few light showers are evident ahead of this front. The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by the eastern extension of the 1025 mb high pressure east of Bermuda. A moderate pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Africa results in moderate to fresh northerly winds from 10N to 25N and east of 30W. Seas there are 4 to 8 ft in NW swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the large middle to upper-level low ENE of the Bahamas will continue to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from east of the Bahamas to near 71W, and southward to the vicinity of the Turks and Caicos through early Fri. Some of this activity may contain strong gusty winds and heavy rain reducing visibility. The low is forecast to lift N of the area by early on Fri evening. Southeast winds will pulse fresh to strong speeds north of Hispaniola in the afternoons and evenings going into early next week. Otherwise, high pressure centered just north of the area will maintain rather quite marine conditions through the period. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################