--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-22 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC220503_C_KWBC_20260622050414_32440682-3510-TWDAT.txt ****0000004982**** AXNT20 KNHC 220503 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jun 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from 02N to 16N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 02N to 10N between 30W and 40W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W from 01N to 16N moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this tropical wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 69W south of 18N to inland Venezuela. It is moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic ocean near 16N16W, and continues southwestward to 05N34W and to near 07N44W. No ITCZ is analyzed at this time. In addition to the convection in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 10N and E of 26W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... 1017 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf near 26N85W, with a ridge extending toward the northeast coast of Mexico. This pattern is supporting gentle breezes and 1-4 ft over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh SE winds and 4-6 ft over the western Gulf. Decaying convection is seen in satellite imagery off the NW coast of Cuba. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin this week. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will pulse off Yucatan nightly during the first half of the week. Meanwhile, a moderate pressure gradient will maintain mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf through late Mon night before diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Slight to moderate seas will be with these winds. Light winds along with slight seas will be over the eastern Gulf through the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge N of the area, the Colombia Low, and the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong E to SE winds across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, strongest offshore northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the eastern Caribbean as well as portions of the SW and NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft across much of the Caribbean S of 18N, and 2-5 ft elsewhere. Upper level jet dynamics and convergent surface winds support numerous moderate to strong convection across portions of Central America from Guatemala south and eastward to Panama. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between ridging north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over much of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. The trade winds are expected to increase to near gale across the central portion of the basin over a large area south of 15N, including along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela starting Mon night through Tue night. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Lastly, fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas to 10 ft are also forecast east of the Lesser Antilles during much of this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad ridging stemming from a 1026 mb high near 35N34W expands across much of the Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across most of the Atlantic south of about 22N along with seas 5 to 8 ft, as well as N of 22N and E of 25W. Fresh to strong trades are confirmed by scatterometer data S of 20N and W of 50W to the Lesser Antilles. Another, smaller area of fresh to strong trades is occurring along the northern coast of Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds are north of 22N and west of 25W along with seas of 2 to 5 ft. Upper- level jet dynamics along the southeastern periphery of a broad upper trough over the U.S. east coast are sustaining an area of scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 28N between 60W and 70W. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the region through the forecast period. Winds will pulse nightly fresh to locally strong speeds off northern Hispaniola and seas may build up to 8 ft. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC221007_C_KWBC_20260622100803_9109880-6611-TWDAT.txt ****0000004249**** AXNT20 KNHC 221007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Jun 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1005 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic along 15W, south of 17N, based on recent satellite imagery, total precipitable water and wave guidance data. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 10N and east of 28W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 04N to 10N and between 32W and 42W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this tropical wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are evident near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 05N30W and to 03N41W. Please read the Tropical Waves section. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores extends a ridge to the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas west of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin this week. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds will pulse off Yucatan nightly during the first half of the week. Meanwhile, a moderate pressure gradient will maintain mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf through late tonight before diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds. Slight to moderate seas will be with these winds. Light winds along with slight seas will be over the eastern Gulf through the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The aforementioned subtropical ridge supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to roughnseas over much of the Caribbean south, especially south of 18N. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colomia. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, a broad subtropical ridge north of the islands will force fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over much of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. The trade winds are expected to increase to near gale across the central portion of the basin over a large area south of 15N, including along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela starting tonight through Tue night and then late in the week. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Lastly, fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas to 9 ft are also forecast east of the Lesser Antilles during much of this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 mb high pressure system centered SW of the Azores dominates the tropical Atlantic waters, supporting moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft south of 22N and east of 30W. Farther east, fresh to strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found from 17N to 24N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the region through the forecast period. Winds will pulse nightly fresh to locally strong speeds off northern Hispaniola and seas may build up to 8 ft. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################