--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-24 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC240543_C_KWBC_20260924054335_4522426-4500-TWDAT.txt ****0000010281**** AXNT20 KNHC 240543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay: Newly upgraded Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 40.0W at 24/0300 UTC or 810 nm W-SW of the Azores, moving W-SW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to 11 ft are occurring within 75 nm across the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm NE and 45 nm SW quadrants. Fay is forecast to maintain minimal tropical storm strength and move westward through Fri morning then begin to weaken through this weekend. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): Surface low pressure is developing around 11.5N along a tropical wave with an axis around 19W-20W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 15.5N, E of 23W. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows a broad cyclonic circulation at the surface off the W coast of Africa, with peak winds around 25 kt in SW winds occurring S of 10N. This low pressure may become a short-lived tropical depression on Thursday or Friday while it moves NW to N. However, strong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain and flash flooding are possible there by Friday. This system has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours. Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing from northern Honduras, E of 87W, north- northeastward across the Cayman Islands and into the southern coastal waters of Cuba, and across Andros Island and the remainder of the NW Bahamas W of 75.5W. Heavy rainfall across these regions will create the possibility of life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... See Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic along 19N-20N that has potential for tropical formation. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 47W, S of 16W, moving west at around 10 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are noted within 60 nm of the wave axis along the monsoon trough from 09N to 11N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 15N into southern Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 11.5N between 60W and 64W, while numerous moderate to strong convection is near the wave axis well inland from 01N to 08N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and meanders southward to 1010 low pressure near 11.5N20W then continues westward to 10.5N37W to 08N59W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N48W continues to the coast of Guyana near 09N58W. Beyond convection associated with the tropical wave described above, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 23W and 33W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 10.5N between 49W and 54W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Deep-layered upper troughing continues across the eastern Gulf from the coastal Carolinas across N Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Multi-layered clouds and scattered moderate convection is noted from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward across the Straits of Florida and south Florida and into the Bahamas. To the west, widely scattered showers are occurring along a surface trough across southwest portions from Cabo Rojo, Mexico the the central Bay of Campeche. At the surface, weak high pressure prevails across the northern Gulf, ahead of an approaching cold front extending just inland across the northern Gulf states and across the coastal waters of the Florida Big Bend. Gentle to moderate E-NE to E winds dominate the Gulf N of 25N, with 2-4 ft seas. Light to gentle winds prevail south of 25N, except for moderate N to NE winds along the NW coast of the Yucatan. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. An upper-level trough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next couple of days. A frontal boundary is forecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri and produce a slight increase in winds and seas. The front will shift southward before stalling over the SE Gulf this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for information on upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean, and expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Central America into the weekend. To the east, deep-layered low pressure extends from the A weak pressure pattern prevails from the central Atlantic southwestward to northern Venezuela. A low level trough is moving across Puerto Rico and interacting with the upper trough to produce scattered showers dotting the waters surrounding Puerto Rico and the Virgin Island and portions of the eastern Caribbean. A tropical wave is across the southeast Caribbean and mostly impacting interior portions of Venezuela with numerous strong showers and thunderstorms. At the surface, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends a weak ridge into the Bahamas, producing a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin. Moderate trades prevail across most of the basin S of 16N and E of 79W, while fresh to locally strong winds are S of 13.5N to the coasts of NW Venezuela and extreme NE Colombia. Seas in these winds are 4 to 7 ft, and 3 to 5 ft in the moderate winds. Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere across the SW and NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will persist across the basin to generate moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for the next couple of days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Fay over the central Atlantic well east-southeast of Bermuda. A deep-layered upper trough extending from the middle Atlantic states of the U.S. S-SW across the eastern Gulf of America continues to support scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms from the NW Caribbean across the NW and central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. Abundant low-level tropical moisture is across much of the Atlantic W of 68W, trapped to the south of an approaching cold front offshore of the SE U.S. and is interacting with the upper trough. A surface trough has developed within this convection across the NW Bahamas through the Straits of Florida. A weak frontal boundary has become stationary across the NW waters from 31N75W to northern Florida. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are filling in behind this front W of 75W, building seas to 5-7 ft. Another upper- level low is drifting westward near 26N53W, and extends a trough SW across the eastern Caribbean. This feature is interacting with several surface troughs in the central Atlantic resulting in an area of scattered moderate convection from 21N to 26.5N between 50W and 56W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient continues across much of the Atlantic, as high pressure remains centered across the far NE Atlantic offshore of Europe. This pattern is sustaining mostly gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and variable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W, except for moderate SE to S winds over the area N of 30N between 60W and 70W. Seas are 2 to 5 ft W of 60W, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere across the basin. However, swell generated from Tropical Storm Fay is producing seas of 6 to 11 ft N of 27N between 36W and 43W. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through tonight. An upper-level trough will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. Deepening low pressure across the western Atlantic will push a frontal boundary off the SE United States coast late tonight. The front will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Fresh to strong winds and large N to NE swell will follow the front on Thu and Fri, before beginning to slowly subside Sat through Sun. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC241026_C_KWBC_20260924102737_4522426-4517-TWDAT.txt ****0000010118**** AXNT20 KNHC 241026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay: Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 40.5W at 24/0900 UTC or 830 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas to 11 ft are occurring within 75 nm across the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm NE and 45 nm SW quadrants. Fay is forecast to maintain minimal tropical storm strength and move westward through Fri morning then begin to weaken through this weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is accompanied by a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms mainly E of 26W. A tropical wave accompanies this low. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression later today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. However, strong upper-level winds should end the opportunity for development by the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible there by Friday. This system has a medium chance of formation in the next 48 hours. Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing from northern Honduras, E of 87W, north- northeastward across the Cayman Islands and into the southern coastal waters of Cuba, and across Andros Island and the remainder of the NW Bahamas W of 75W. Heavy rainfall across these regions will create the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... See Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic along 20N that has potential for tropical formation. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 47W, S of 13W, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the wave axis along the monsoon trough from 09N to 11N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 14N into southern Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 12N between 60W and 64W, while numerous moderate to strong convection is near the wave axis well inland from 01N to 08N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 20N16W and meanders southward to 1008 low pressure near 12N21W then continues westward to 10.5N47W. The ITCZ extends from 08N49W continues to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the boundary and E of 32W, and from 09N to 13N and E of 49W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Deep-layered upper troughing continues across the eastern Gulf from the coastal Carolinas across N Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Multi-layered clouds and scattered moderate convection is noted from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward across the Straits of Florida and south Florida and into the Bahamas. To the west, widely scattered showers are occurring along a surface trough across southwest portions from Cabo Rojo, Mexico the the central Bay of Campeche. At the surface, weak high pressure prevails across the northern Gulf, ahead of an approaching cold front extending just inland across the northern Gulf states and across the coastal waters of the Florida Big Bend. Gentle to moderate E-NE to E winds dominate the Gulf N of 25N, with 2-4 ft seas. Light to gentle winds prevail south of 25N, except for moderate N to NE winds along the NW coast of the Yucatan. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will generate gentle to moderate winds across the remainder of the basin through today. The upper-level trough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next couple of days. The front is forecast to progress across the E Gulf tonight and Fri, then stall over the SE Gulf this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for information on upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean, and expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Central America into the weekend. To the east, deep-layered low pressure extends from the weak pressure pattern prevails from the central Atlantic southwestward to northern Venezuela. A low level trough is moving across Puerto Rico and interacting with the upper trough to produce scattered showers dotting the waters surrounding Puerto Rico and the Virgin Island and portions of the eastern Caribbean. A tropical wave is across the southeast Caribbean and mostly impacting interior portions of Venezuela with numerous strong showers and thunderstorms. At the surface, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends a weak ridge into the Bahamas, producing a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin. Moderate trades prevail across most of the basin S of 16N and E of 79W, while fresh to strong winds are S of 13.5N to the coasts of NW Venezuela and extreme NE Colombia. Seas in these winds are 4 to 7 ft, and 3 to 5 ft in the moderate winds. Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere across the SW and NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will generate moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. The upper-level trough will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for the next couple of days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Fay over the central Atlantic well east-southeast of Bermuda. A deep-layered upper trough extending from the middle Atlantic states of the U.S. S-SW across the eastern Gulf of America continues to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from the NW Caribbean across the NW and central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. Abundant low-level tropical moisture is across much of the Atlantic W of 68W, trapped to the south of an approaching front offshore of the SE U.S. and is interacting with the upper trough. A surface trough is analyzed within this convection across the NW Bahamas through the Straits of Florida. A weak frontal boundary has become stationary across the NW waters from 31N75W to northern Florida. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are filling in behind this front W of 75W, building seas to 5-7 ft. Another upper-level low is drifting westward near 24N54W, and extends a trough SW across the eastern Caribbean. This feature is interacting with a surface trough resulting in an area of scattered moderate convection from 21N to 26.5N between 49W and 57W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient continues across much of the Atlantic, as high pressure remains centered across the far NE Atlantic offshore of Europe. This pattern is sustaining gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and variable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W, except for moderate SE to S winds over the area N of 30N between 60W and 70W. Seas are 2 to 5 ft W of 60W, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere across the basin. However, swell generated from Tropical Storm Fay is producing seas of 6 to 11 ft N of 27N between 36W and 43W. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through tonight. An upper-level trough will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. Deepening low pressure across the western Atlantic will push a frontal boundary off the SE United States coast late tonight. The front will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Fresh to strong winds and large N to NE swell will follow the front on Thu and Fri, before beginning to slowly subside Sat through Sun. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC241928_C_KWBC_20260924194442_4522426-4561-TWDAT.txt ****0000006839**** AXNT20 KNHC 241928 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC 1815 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay: Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 41.2W at 24/1500 UTC or 860 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are occurring within 45 nm across the N semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm NE and 45 nm SW quadrants. Fay will move to 29.8N 42.0W this evening, 29.7N 42.9W Fri morning, 29.6N 43.9W Fri evening, weaken to a remnant low near 29.5N 45.2W Sat morning, 29.5N 46.0W Sat evening, and dissipate Sun morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm later today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further development over the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by Friday. Heavy rain and flash flooding could also occur well to the east along the coast of western Africa, particularly in western portions of Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and southwest portions of Mauritania. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing from northern Honduras, E of 87W, north- northeastward across the Cayman Islands and into the southern coastal waters of Cuba, and across Andros Island and the remainder of the NW Bahamas W of 75W. Heavy rainfall across these regions will create the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... See Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic that has potential for tropical cyclone formation. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W, S of 17W, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W, south of 16N into southern Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 12N between 60W and 64W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 15N16W and extends SW to near 10N26W then to 10N48W. The ITCZ continues from 10N48W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the boundary and E of 32W, and from 09N to 13N and E of 49W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A frontal boundary extends from south Florida to NE Texas. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and moderate seas, are N of the front. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the front is forecast to progress across the E Gulf tonight and Fri, then stall over the SE Gulf this weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the front through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for information on upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean, and expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Central America into the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the waters E of 75W. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are W of 75W. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for the next couple of days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Fay over the central Atlantic well east-southeast of Bermuda. A frontal boundary extends from 31N75W to south Florida. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, prevail elsewhere. Aside from AL90, moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, are E of 25W. Elsewhere, aside from Fay, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and increasing seas will follow the front through Fri, before decreasing on Sat. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC241929_C_KWBC_20260924194638_31523192-4557-TWDAT.txt ****0000006785**** AXNT20 KNHC 241929 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay: Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 41.2W at 24/1500 UTC or 860 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are occurring within 45 nm across the N semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm NE and 45 nm SW quadrants. Fay will move to 29.8N 42.0W this evening, 29.7N 42.9W Fri morning, 29.6N 43.9W Fri evening, weaken to a remnant low near 29.5N 45.2W Sat morning, 29.5N 46.0W Sat evening, and dissipate Sun morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm later today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further development over the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by Friday. Heavy rain and flash flooding could also occur well to the east along the coast of western Africa, particularly in western portions of Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and southwest portions of Mauritania. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing from northern Honduras, E of 87W, north- northeastward across the Cayman Islands and into the southern coastal waters of Cuba, and across Andros Island and the remainder of the NW Bahamas W of 75W. Heavy rainfall across these regions will create the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... See Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic that has potential for tropical cyclone formation. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W, S of 17W, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W, south of 16N into southern Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 12N between 60W and 64W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 15N16W and extends SW to near 10N26W then to 10N48W. The ITCZ continues from 10N48W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the boundary and E of 32W, and from 09N to 13N and E of 49W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A frontal boundary extends from south Florida to NE Texas. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and moderate seas, are N of the front. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the front is forecast to progress across the E Gulf tonight and Fri, then stall over the SE Gulf this weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the front through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for information on upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean, and expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Central America into the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the waters E of 75W. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are W of 75W. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for the next couple of days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Fay over the central Atlantic well east-southeast of Bermuda. A frontal boundary extends from 31N75W to south Florida. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, prevail elsewhere. Aside from AL90, moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, are E of 25W. Elsewhere, aside from Fay, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and increasing seas will follow the front through Fri, before decreasing on Sat. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC241957_C_KWBC_20260924195739_31523192-4558-TWDAT.txt ****0000008717**** AXNT20 KNHC 241957 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 41.2W at 24/1500 UTC or 860 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are occurring within 75 nm across the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 130 nm over the NE and NW and 70 nm SW quadrants. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight. A gradual weakening trend is expected to commence on Friday. A generally westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm later today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further development over the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by Friday. Heavy rain and flash flooding could also occur well to the east along the coast of western Africa, particularly in western portions of Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and southwest portions of Mauritania. This system has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms extends from the Gulf of Honduras, north- northeastward across the Cayman Islands and into the southern coastal waters of Cuba, and across Andros Island and the remainder of the NW Bahamas W of 73W. Heavy rainfall across these regions will create the possibility of life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... See Special Features section above for information on a tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic along 20N that has potential for tropical formation. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 46W, S of 14.5W, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between the wave axis and 51W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W, south of 14N into southern Venezuela, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted over waters in association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 16N17W and extends southward to 1007 low pressure near 12.3N21.1W then continues westward to 10.5N49W. The ITCZ extends from 10.5N49W and continues to to near 10N59.5W. Scattered showers prevail from 04.5N to 09N between 27.5W and 36W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 09N to 13N west of 59W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A frontal boundary extends from south Florida to NE Texas. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds along with seas 2 to 4 ft prevail in the wake of the front. Elsewhere, weak high pressure prevails ahead of the front supporting light to gentle NE to E winds along with seas 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned front is forecast to progress across the E Gulf tonight and Fri, then stall over the SE Gulf this weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the front through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for information on upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean, and expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Central America into the weekend. To the east, an upper level trough extends from the central Atlantic southwestward to northern Venezuela. This trough is supporting scattered moderate convection south of 13N and east of 65W. At the surface, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends a weak ridge north of the area, producing a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean basin. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across most of the basin S of 15N and E of 80W. Seas in these winds are 4 to 7 ft. Over the eastern Caribbean moderate winds prevail along and 3 to 5 ft in the moderate winds. Elsewhere, outside of convection, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will generate moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for the next couple of days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Fay. A deep-layered upper trough extending from the middle Atlantic states of the U.S. S-SW across the eastern Gulf of America continues to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from the NW Caribbean across the NW and central Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters. Abundant low-level tropical moisture is across much of the Atlantic W of 68W, trapped to the south of an approaching front offshore of the SE U.S. and is interacting with the upper trough. A surface trough is analyzed within this convection across the NW Bahamas through the Straits of Florida. A weak frontal boundary extends from 31N75W to South Florida. Moderate to fresh winds prevail behind the front, except for strong winds offshore NE Florida along with seas to 9 ft. Ahead of the front, north of 28N and between 71W and 73W moderate S to SW winds prevail. Another upper-level low is drifting westward near 25N53W. This feature is interacting with a surface trough resulting in an area of scattered moderate convection from 21N to 28N between 50W and 56W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient continues across much of the Atlantic, as high pressure remains centered across the far NE Atlantic offshore of Europe. This pattern is sustaining gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and variable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W. However, swell generated from Tropical Storm Fay is producing seas of 6 to 11 ft N of 28N between 38W and 45W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and increasing seas will follow the front through Fri, before decreasing on Sat. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC242318_C_KWBC_20260924231843_4522426-4582-TWDAT.txt ****0000007465**** AXNT20 KNHC 242318 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 41.8W at 24/2100 UTC or 890 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 12 ft are occurring within 75 nm across the NW semicircle. Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Some strengthening is possible overnight before weakening likely commences by Fri afternoon. A generally westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Far Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL90): An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system could become a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm later today or on Friday while it moves northwestward to northward. Increasing upper-level winds, however, should prevent further development over the weekend. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system as gusty winds, areas of heavy rain, and flash flooding are possible over the islands by Friday. Heavy rain and flash flooding could also occur well to the east along the coast of western Africa, particularly in western portions of Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, and southwest portions of Mauritania. This system has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A mid to upper- level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms extends from the Gulf of Honduras, north- northeastward across the Cayman Islands and into the southern coastal waters of Cuba. Heavy rainfall across these regions will create the possibility of life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 49W, S of 14W, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N between the wave axis and 51W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, south of 13N into western Venezuela, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted over waters in association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 16N17W and extends SW to near 12N35W. The ITCZ extends from 10N42W to 10N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 28W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from SW Florida to the upper Texas coast. N of the boundary, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail. To the south, gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas dominate. For the forecast, the stationary front will begin to move E as a cold front and progress through the basin through Fri, then stall again over the SE Gulf this weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the front through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for information on upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean that is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Central America into the weekend. At the surface, high pressure across the central Atlantic extends a weak ridge north of the area.Fresh trades prevail across most of the basin S of 15N and E of 80W. Seas in these winds are 4 to 7 ft. Over the eastern Caribbean moderate winds prevail along and 3 to 5 ft in the moderate winds. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will generate moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. An upper-level trough will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for the next couple of days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Fay. A mid- and upper-level trough and associated surface boundaries extending from offshore North Carolina to the Florida Straits is generating numerous moderate convection W of 70W. The most dominant frontal boundary extends from 31N72W to South Florida. N of this boundary, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are increasing. Ahead of the front, north of 28N and between 71W and 73W moderate S to SW winds prevail. Another upper-level low is drifting westward near 25N53W. This feature is interacting with a surface trough resulting in an area of scattered moderate convection from 21N to 28N between 50W and 56W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient continues across much of the Atlantic, as high pressure remains centered across the far NE Atlantic offshore of Europe. This pattern is sustaining gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and variable light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 35W. However, swell generated from Tropical Storm Fay is producing seas of 6 to 11 ft N of 28N between 38W and 45W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary will shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and increasing seas will follow the front through Fri, before decreasing on Sat. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################