--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-02-26 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC260359_C_KWBC_20260226040006_16515500-8331-TWDAT.txt ****0000005200**** AXNT20 KNHC 260359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Feb 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell propagating across the central and eastern waters is supporting rough to very rough seas. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft E of 35W by Thu morning, but rough seas of 8 to 11 ft will persist into the upcoming weekend. Over the central waters seas of 8 to 12 ft will gradually subside from NW to SE over the next couple of days. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N13W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 00N31W and to near 02S46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An extensive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the Gulf waters, supporting fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas in the NW Gulf. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and moderate seas are seen north of the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, broad high pressure extending from the central Atlantic southwestward across the Gulf will shift E-NE across the western Atlantic through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return flow across the NW Gulf will expand across the SW and central Gulf tonight into Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf early Fri. This weak cold front is expected to sink slowly southward across the north half of the Gulf Fri through Sat night and gradually dissipate. High pressure N of the Gulf will dominate the basin Sun and Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The southern portion of a stationary front continues to bring scattered showers to Hispaniola and nearby waters. The remnants of the frontal boundary in the central Caribbean support a few showers near the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. The tight pressure gradient between the expansive subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern Colombia sustain strong to near gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Mainly fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the north-central, including the Windward Passage, and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure centered NE of Bermuda extends a ridge southwestward across S Florida and into the W Gulf of America. The high will shift NE across the Atlantic through early Sat and maintain a broad ridge across the central and western Atlantic, bringing a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic through the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the Significant Swell Event in the central and eastern Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 31N50W to the northern Dominican Republic. A few showers are occurring near this boundary, with the strongest convection affecting the SE Bahamas and nearby waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are found south of 25N and west of the front. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell follow the front. The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 34N32W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa forces moderate to locally strong trade winds and rough to very rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will drift W and dissipate Thu as the high pressure N of the front shifts NE into the central Atlantic, producing a broad ridge across the entire region that is expected to persist until Sat. A weak front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sat and move slowly southeastward and weaken through Sun. Seas will gradually subside through Thu night, with seas lingering around 8 ft over the SE waters through the end of the period. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################