--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC070540_C_KWBC_20261007054043_31523192-5809-TWDAT.txt ****0000006132**** AXNT20 KNHC 070540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nine is centered near 22.1N 95.0W at 07/0300 UTC or 300 nm W of Progreso Mexico, moving E at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N-25N between 91W-97W. An east-northwestward motion is expected on Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the northeast and north on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. Swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Nine NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the E Atlantic is near 19W, extending from 05N-20N. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with the tropical wave. A strong tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with an axis near 66W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N-18N between 61W-66W. This wave is also forcing fresh to locally strong E winds across the eastern Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along coastal Senegal near 14N17W and extends to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 250 nm of these features. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Depression Nine. Aside from Tropical Depression Nine, a stationary front is drapped across the northern Gulf from coastal Florida near Tampa Bay to 27N95W to 23N97W. Winds behind the front are moderate to fresh northeasterlies with seas 3-6 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring N of 24N and E of 90W, as well as along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nine will strengthen to a tropical storm near 22.2N 94.2W Wed morning, move to 22.5N 92.7W Wed evening, 23.2N 91.1W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 24.3N 89.7W Thu evening, 26.1N 88.7W Fri morning, and 28.8N 88.3W Fri evening. Nine will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 34.1N 88.8W late Sat. Otherwise, a frontal boundary along the northern Gulf will gradually weaken Wed and Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda High to the north and an 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing moderate to locally fresh trades with seas of 3-6 ft over the Caribbean this afternoon. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean south of 13N and west of 73W. For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin through early Thu. High pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri. These trades will then be at mostly moderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary extends from 31N68W to the east coast of FL near Cape Canaveral. A 1010 mb low near 30N78W is along the front, with a surface trough extending southward to near Jupiter, FL. Scattered moderate convection is along and roughly 100 nm S and E of these features. Farther east in the central Atlantic, a pair of surface troughs stemming from a 1015 mb low near 32N40W are supporting scattered moderate convection N of 24N between 32W and 47W. Outside of convection, broad ridging across the Atlantic supports gentle to moderate or weaker trades and moderate seas across much of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 30N70W to a 1010 mb low near 30N78W to Melbourne will begin to slowly move eastward across the area tonight as a cold front, then stall from Bermuda to NE Florida into Wed. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as Tropical Depression Nine tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE Sat night through Sun night while weakening. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC071108_C_KWBC_20261007110845_31523192-5834-TWDAT.txt ****0000006527**** AXNT20 KNHC 071108 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Nine has intensified into Tropical Storm Isaias, which is centered near 22.0N 94.1W at 07/0900 UTC or 250 nm W of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 10 to 11 ft. Numerous strong convection extends from 20N to 26N between 90W and 96W. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next day or two, and Isaias is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday. Swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 19W, extending from 05N-20N. Scattered moderate convection extends from 07N to 16N between 17W and 23W. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean with an axis near 67W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 63W and 69W. This wave is also forcing fresh to locally strong winds over the NE Caribbean and southern Puerto Rico adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends to 14N26W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 08N50W to 11N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 17N between 23W and 37W, and from 07N to 10N between 36W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Isaias. Tropical Storm Isaias is near 22.0N 94.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving east-northeast at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Aside from the cyclone, a stationary front extends from N of Tampa Bay to a 1008 mb low near 27N86W where it starts to dissipate. The front is generating scattered to isolated showers across the northern Gulf. Northeast fresh to strong winds are behind the front over the NE Gulf while moderate to locally fresh NE winds are across the NW offshores. Seas are slight to moderate with this frontal boundary. For the forecast, Isaias will move to 22.2N 92.9W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 22.7N 91.4W Thu morning, 23.9N 89.7W Thu afternoon, 25.5N 88.5W Fri morning, 27.7N 87.7W Fri afternoon, and inland to 30.8N 87.7W Sat morning. Isaias will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 38.2N 87.5W early Sun. Otherwise, a stationary front along the north- central and NE Gulf will gradually weaken through this evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the eastern Caribbean. The presence of a frontal boundary N of the Bahamas and Tropical Storm Isaias in the Gulf of America maintain a weak pressure gradient over the western and central Caribbean along with slight to moderate seas. Over the E basin, the passage of a tropical wave, currently moving across the Mona Passage just to the W of Puerto Rico, is supporting moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas. Gusty winds and rough seas are possible in the vicinity of the wave due to the strong convection. For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin through early Thu morning. Afterward, high pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh speeds Fri. These trades will then be at mostly moderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N68W to a 1010 mb low near 30N78W to Cape Canaveral. Scattered heavy showers are occuring across the offshores N of 27N from the coast of Florida to nearly 60W. Ahead of the front, a 1017 mb high prevails to the SE of Bermuda, which is supporting moderate or weaker winds over the subtropical waters W of 40W. However, winds N of the frontal boundary are fresh to strong and seas are moderate to rough. A pair of troughs are in the central subtropical Atlantic waters generating scattered moderate convection and tstms. Finally over the E Atlantic, the Azores high dominates, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas E of 40W. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will transition to a slow moving cold front today, then weaken past Bermuda late Thu before dissipating Thu night. Fresh to strong northeast winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through this evening. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off NE Florida by Fri morning as Tropical Storm Isaias tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE early on Sat before weakening by Sun morning. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC071633_C_KWBC_20261007163347_31523192-5862-TWDAT.txt ****0000007302**** AXNT20 KNHC 071633 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 22.4N 93.6W at 07/1500 UTC or 230 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 19N to 26N between 89W and 94W. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to pass to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday and approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday. Rapid strengthening is forecast over the next day or two, and Isaias is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday. Swells are expected to affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Thursday and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast late this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 20W, extending from 05N-20N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 06N to 14N between 16W and 23W. A tropical wave is in the Caribbean with an axis near 68.5W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 65W and 69W. This wave is also forcing moderate to locally fresh winds over the northeast Caribbean and southern Puerto Rico adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to 07N20W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 09N56W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N to 16N between 24W and 33W, and from 08N to 10N between 45W and 48W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Tropical Storm Isaias. Tropical Storm Isaias is centered near 22.4N 93.6W at 07/1500 UTC or 230 nm WNW of Progreso Mexico, moving ENE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Elsewhere, a 1008 mb low is centered over the north-central basin near 27.5N86.5W, and a stationary front extends eastward through the central Florida Peninsula, and a trough extends southwestward from the low to 25N93W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted north of these features on recent scatterometer data, and 4 to 6 ft seas are occurring as observed by recent buoy data. Across the southeastern Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, Isaias will move to near 22.7N 92.4W this evening with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, strengthen to a hurricane near 23.4N 90.8W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, and continue to strengthen as it nears 24.6N 89.2W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt, then move to near 26.6N 88.1W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt, move to near 29.2N 87.5W Fri evening, then inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.2N 87.6W Sat morning. Isaias will weaken to a tropical depression while moving farther inland to near 38.0N 87.5W early on Sun. Swells from Isaias are expected to spread across most of the northern and central Gulf portions through Fri night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will be over the basin. Otherwise, a stationary front along the north-central and NE Gulf will gradually weaken through this evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh SE to NE winds are occurring in the eastern Caribbean near a tropical wave axis near 68.5W. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in this region. In addition, convection near the tropical wave is likely producing gusty winds and rough seas. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas, as noted on recent buoy and altimeter satellite data. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection is occurring in the south-central Caribbean near the eastern extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across most of the basin through early Thu morning. Afterward, high pressure is forecast to redevelop to the southeast of Bermuda, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh speeds Fri. These trades will then be at mostly moderate to fresh speeds Fri night through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N74.5W southwestward to the central Florida coast, and a pre-frontal trough is noted to the southeast. Fresh to locally strong NE winds prevail north of this front, with 6 to 8 ft seas in the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near these features, west of 59W and north of 27N. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 27N44W to 22N48W, and scattered showers and storms to the east are likely producing gusty winds and rough seas. An additional surface trough, from 29N38W to 31N40W, is leading to moderate or weaker winds. Finally over the eastern Atlantic, the Azores high dominates, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas E of 40W. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will transition to a slow moving cold front today, then weaken past Bermuda late Thu before dissipating Thu night. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off northeast Florida through this evening. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing southeast of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades south of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off northeast Florida by Fri morning as Tropical Cyclone Isaias tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the southeast at fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to moderate speeds by Sun morning. $$ ADAMS ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################