--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC190014_C_KWBC_20260719001540_32440682-5642-TWDAT.txt ****0000007509**** AXNT20 KNHC 190014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Jul 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the western Atlantic high pressure ridge north of the basin roughly along 27N-28N and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing northeast to east winds to gale force over the waters north of Colombia tonight. Otherwise, strong to near-gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon before becoming confined to south of 15N. Rough to very rough seas, in the 12 to 14 ft range, will develop during the times of peak winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (Invest AL91): Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad surface low is located over the eastern Gulf of America. Within this area of broad low pressure, a 1015 mb low is analyzed over the eastern Gulf near 27N84.5W. Presently, winds are light. Satellite imagery shows disorganized moderate to isolated strong convection from 26N to 28N between 85W and 88W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere from 23N to 29N east of 90W. This activity may produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and rough seas. Mariners should exercise caution across this area. Gradual development of this system is possible, and it could become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few days. Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several days. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 31W from 03N to 20N moving westward near 15 kt. Isolated showers are near axis from 04N to 10N and from 15N to 20N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W south of 18N to inland South America. It is moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 52W and 58W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 20N16W, and continues southwestward to 16N23W and to 07N42W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N45W and to 07N52W. Scattered moderate convection is south of the trough from 09N to 13N between 19W-24W. A 1012 low is near 12N20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a broad low pressure area over the eastern section of the Gulf that has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, a 1021 mb high center that is located south-southwest of Louisiana continues to basically control the wind regime throughout the basin generally maintaining gentle to moderate winds. Slight to moderate seas pretty much prevail. For the forecast, the low pressure will slowly move northward or north-northwestward during the next few days bringing heavy rain to the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia. There is a medium chance of tropical formation with this system through the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate, producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. Winds are expected to peak to gale force tonight. The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure to its south is generally sustaining strong to near gale-force trades over the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of near gale force noted offshore Colombia per latest satellite scatterometer data passes. Latest satellite altimeter data passes indicate rough to very rough seas to 14 ft over these same waters. Meanwhile, the latest satellite scatterometer data passes show mostly fresh trades south of about 18N and east of 82W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over these waters. Light to gentle trades along with slight to moderate seas are present elsewhere. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the southeastern part of the basin, and also from 10N to 14N west of 82W to inland Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge axis oriented along 27N-28N and the Colombian low will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia early tonight. Otherwise, strong to near-gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon, before contracting to south of 15N. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each this evening and on Sun evening in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak trough is analyzed from near 31N32W to 28N35W. Another weak trough is from 31N37W to 26N40W. Isolated weak showers are seen north of 25N between 30W and 50W. Otherwise, broad high pressure, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 29N56W, covers the central Atlantic and reaches westward to near 76W. The related gradient is generally allowing for moderate to fresh trades south of about 25N and west of 46W, and from 15N to 24N east of 35W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over these waters, except for higher seas of 5 to 7 ft from 08N to 20N between 54W and the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are north of 20N and east of 20W to along the coast of Africa. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Latest satellite scatterometer data passes reveal south to southwest winds of 10 to 15 kt south of the monsoon trough, and east to southeast winds of 10 to 15 kt south of the ITCZ. Seas are mostly 4 to 6 ft over these waters. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the western periphery of the Atlantic high pressure will gradually weaken and drift northward through the rest of the weekend as a broad surface trough forms E of 50W. This trough will shift westward and reach 65W by Wed. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail south of 24N, with gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected during the evenings this weekend N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC190525_C_KWBC_20260719052543_32440682-5665-TWDAT.txt ****0000007214**** AXNT20 KNHC 190525 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Jul 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0505 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Caribbean Gale Warning: The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean will support strong to near-gale force easterly trade winds across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon, before becoming confined to south of 15N. Winds will pulse to gale force over the waters north of Colombia tonight. Rough to very rough seas, peaking around 14 ft, will develop during the times of peak winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. NE Gulf of America (Invest AL91): Recent satellite-wind data and nearby surface observations indicate that an area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America is slowly becoming better defined. However, its associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. This activity may produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and rough seas. Mariners should exercise caution across this area. Regardless, gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, to Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A well-defined tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has been repositioned along 32W, south of 19N, based on recent satellite and scatterometer data. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave due to dry Saharan air. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are present from 07N to 13N and between 55W and 63W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward through the Cabo Verde Islands to 15N30W and then to 07N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N44W to 07N58W. A few showers are evident within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ west of 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details a broad low pressure over the eastern Gulf that has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, dry air dominates the remainder of the basin suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. A 1019 mb high pressure over the NW Gulf waters supports moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche, while light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, broad low pressure has formed offshore of Tampa Bay, Florida near 84.5W, and will drift northward over the next few days, bringing thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to the NE Gulf and adjacent portions of Florida. Gradual development of this system is possible and a tropical depression could form over the next few days before the system moves inland across the Florida Panhandle. Regardless of development, mariners should prepare for thunderstorms producing locally gusty winds and higher seas. Away from this system, weak high pressure will dominate, producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. The 1027 mb subtropical ridge centered near 29N58W in the central Atlantic forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are found in these waters. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean and Windward Passage. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed over Panama and Costa Rica are also affecting the nearshore waters. Generally dry weather conditions are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western Atlantic high pressure ridge oriented along 28N, and the Colombian low will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia tonight. Otherwise, strong to near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon, before contracting to south of 15N. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening this weekend in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A couple of weak surface troughs and an upper level low in the north- central tropical Atlantic combine to generate isolated showers north of 20N and between 36W and 52W. Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic forces fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds off northern Hispaniola as shown in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Elsewhere in the central and western Atlantic, moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are occurring south of 25N and west of 45W. The highest seas are occurring east of the Windward Islands. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 4-8 ft are present north of the monsoon trough and east of 22W. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge extends along 28N tonight and will weaken and drift northward through early next week as a broad surface trough forms E of 50W. This trough will shift westward and reach 65W by Wed. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail S of 24N through Tue, with gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong winds are expected during the evenings through Tue N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Expect increasing winds and seas N of 22N and E of 70W Tue through Wed as the trough approaches. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC190940_C_KWBC_20260719094044_9109880-8665-TWDAT.txt ****0000008129**** AXNT20 KNHC 190940 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Jul 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Caribbean Gale Warning: The subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean will support gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia through near sunrise this morning, and strong to near- gale force easterly trade winds across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon, before becoming confined to south of 15N through midweek. Winds will pulse to gale force over the waters north of Colombia tonight. Rough to very rough seas, peaking at 12 to 13 ft, will develop during the times of peak winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. NE Gulf of America (Invest AL91): Recent satellite scatterometer wind data and nearby surface observations indicate that an area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America is slowly becoming better defined. However, its associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and displaced well the southwest and west of the low. This activity may produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and rough seas. Mariners should exercise caution across this area. Regardless, gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward. Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, to Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system as it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today, if necessary. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A well-defined tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is now along 34W, south of 19N, based on recent satellite and scatterometer data. The wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave due to dry Saharan air. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave along the ITCZ, from 10N to 12.5N and between 57W and 62W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward through the Cabo Verde Islands to 15N30W and then to 06.5N42.5W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N42.5W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is moving off the coast of Africa from 07.5N to 14.5N and E of 18W. Scattered moderate convection is found N of the ITCZ from 06.5N to 09.5N between 41W and 57W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on a broad low pressure over the eastern Gulf that has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. A 1012 mb low center is analyzed near 27.5N 85.5W and is nearly stationary. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring in broken bands from 120 to 300 nm around the periphery of this low, except for the N semicircle. Recent satellite scatterometer wind data showed strong gusty winds to near 30 kt in some of these thunderstorms. Seas are estimated at 2 to 5 ft across this area. Elsewhere, dry air dominates the remainder of the basin suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. A 1018 mb high pressure over the NW Gulf waters supports moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the eastern Bay of Campeche, while light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure over the eastern Gulf is expected to move slowly north to northwestward over the next couple of days, and could become a tropical depression. Regardless, this system will bring thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and strong gusty winds to the NE Gulf and adjacent portions of the Gulf coast through at least Tue. Away from this system, weak high pressure will dominate, producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia until near sunrise. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. The 1024 mb subtropical ridge centered near 28.5N59W in the central Atlantic and extends westward to the coast of Florida. The pressure gradient to the south of the ridge is forcing strong to near-gale easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are found in these waters. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean and Windward Passage. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms that developed over Panama and Costa Rica have shifted inland, while scattered moderate convection associated with a tropical wave is moving into the southern Windward Islands. Generally dry weather conditions are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western Atlantic high pressure ridge oriented along 28N, and the Colombian low will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia through early this morning. Otherwise, strong to near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean into Sun night, before contracting to south of 15N Mon through Thu. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening through Tue in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A couple of weak surface troughs and an upper level low in the north- central tropical Atlantic combine to generate isolated showers north of 23N and between 37W and 53W. Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic forces fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds off northern Hispaniola as shown in a recent satellite scatterometer data. Elsewhere in the central and western Atlantic, moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are occurring south of 24N and west of 45W, with highest seas to 8 ft E of the Windward Islands. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and seas of 4-8 ft are present north of the monsoon trough and east of 25W. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail within the ridge axis. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge along 28N-29N this morning will weaken and drift northward through early next week as a broad surface trough forms E of 50W. This trough will shift westward and reach 65W by Wed, then move W of 70W and weaken quickly Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail S of 24N through Tue, with gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong winds are expected during the evenings through Tue N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Expect increasing winds and seas N of 22N and E of 70W Tue through Wed night as the trough approaches. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################