--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC070339_C_KWBC_20260907034058_21889468-1484-TWDAT.txt ****0000005210**** AXNT20 KNHC 070339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Sep 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is present near this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong occurring south of 13N and west of 79W in the SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 05N32W. The ITCZ extends from 05N32W to 07N43W and then from 07N46W to near 05N53W. No significant convection is evident near the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SE Gulf waters, while some storms are approaching the Florida Gulf coast north of Tampa. In the eastern Bay of Campeche, storms that developed over the western Yucatan peninsula are moving westward at 25-30 kt. Mariners in the area are urged to use caution. The pressure gradient between the high pressure over the central Gulf and the thermal trough over western Yucatan support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas in the eastern half of the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient. The pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the islands and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft in the central and eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. An upper level low in the central Caribbean and diurnal heating combine to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms across Cuba and nearby waters. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms also dot the NE and SW Caribbean. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along about 25N to south Florida. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean. The gradient will begin to tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader area of strong winds, and locally near- gale force, with rough seas, Mon through mid week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid-level trough over the western Atlantic and ample deep atmospheric moisture and instability support numerous showers and thunderstorms in the SW North Atlantic, especially north of 23N and west of 55W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 4-8 ft are noted north of 25N and between 50W and 70W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered near 26N52W. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are present south of 24N and between 30W and 70W. A stronger pressure gradient in the far eastern Atlantic sustains fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas north of 20N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward along about 25N to south Florida will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through early next week. This pattern will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the regional waters, and support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through Tue. A weak cold front approaching the northern waters will stall near 31N through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters W of 65W through Tue. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC070830_C_KWBC_20260907083101_21889468-1503-TWDAT.txt ****0000004851**** AXNT20 KNHC 070830 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Sep 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 29W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is present near this wave. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 45W and 48W. The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave. The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted south of 14N and west of 80W in the SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W, and continues southwestward to 06N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N32W to 06N45W and then resumes from 06N48W to near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 34W and 42W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough has moved off the Yucatan peninsula into the SW Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity of the trough. A 1015 mb high is centered near 26N88W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the surface trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds over the SW Gulf, where moderate seas are noted. Light winds and slight seas are in the vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the islands and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the Caribbean waters. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along about 25N to south Florida. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades and moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean. The pressure gradient will tighten today, leading to an increase in areal coverage of strong winds, locally near- gale force, through midweek. Rough seas will develop over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 31N west of 68W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 26N53W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds, and 6-8 ft seas, N of 28N between 50W and 65W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. A stronger high center, 1027 mb, is centered near 35N23W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds N of the monsoon trough and east of 25W. These winds are generating rough seas over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, cover the waters W of 70W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward along about 25N to south Florida will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen early this week. This pattern will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the regional waters, and support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through Tue. A weak cold front will stall near 31N through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters W of 65W through Tue. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC071547_C_KWBC_20260907154804_21889468-1530-TWDAT.txt ****0000005204**** AXNT20 KNHC 071547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Sep 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1547 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated based on tropical wave diagnostics and satellite imagery. The wave is near 34.4W, south of 19N. Isolated showers are depicted from 04.5N to 07.5N between 34W and 38W. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 46W and 50W. The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave has been relocated based on tropical wave diagnostics and satellite imagery. The wave axis is near 70W, south of 19N. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 12.5N to 17N between 68W and 72W. More information about the western Caribbean tropical wave can be found in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP). ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 07N43W. The ITCZ extends from 07N43W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 38.5W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A deep layered trough is supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms north of 27N between 86W and 91W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are depicted across the basin. A surface trough has moved off the Yucatan peninsula into the SW Gulf. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough. A weak 1013 mb high is centered near 24N87.5W, producing a weak pressure gradient. Outside of convection, this weather pattern is supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean. Mainly moderate E winds, and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the Caribbean waters, except for the NW part of the basin where light to gentle winds prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will begin to tighten today, leading to an increase in areal coverage of strong winds, locally to near-gale force, through midweek. Rough seas will develop over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 31N west of 68W. Ahead of this frontal boundary, scattered moderate convection prevails north of a line from 23N78W to 31N60W. An upper level trough north of Puerto Rico and the Hispaniola is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 18.5N to 23.5N between 62W and 70.5W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 26N53W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh winds, and 6-8 ft seas, N of 20N between 52W and 70W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. A stronger high center, 1029 mb, is centered near 35N23W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds N of the monsoon trough and east of 27W. These winds are generating rough seas over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, cover the waters W of 70W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward along about 26N to the NW Bahamas will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen early this week. This pattern will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the regional waters, and support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through Tue. A weak cold front will stall near 31N through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through Tue. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################