--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC130500_C_KWBC_20260513050119_32440682-103-TWDAT.txt ****0000005072**** AXNT20 KNHC 130500 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed May 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 36W from 03N to 14N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Most of the nearby convection is associated with the ITCZ as described below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 11N15W and continues SW to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 50 nm of the coast of Africa between 05N and 11N. Scattered moderate convection is present S of 02N and W of 21W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from just north of Tampa Bay to a 1013 mb low near 29N86W. A cold front then extends from the low into the SE Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring between the cold front and the W coast of Florida N of 24N. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are N and W of the fronts and surface low, while gentle or weaker winds prevail to the S and E of the fronts. Localized areas of strong E to NE winds in the far NE Gulf are confirmed by scatterometer data. Slight seas prevail across the basin, except for locally moderate seas near Veracruz. For the forecast, a stationary front extends across central Florida to a 1013 mb low near 29N86W from which transitions to a cold front that extends SW to the eastern Bay of Campeche. The cold front will stall briefly tonight and exit the SE Gulf by Wed night. Winds will be generally moderate or weaker on either side of the front, except in the vicinity of the low where fresh to strong winds are likely as indicated by recent scatterometer data. High pressure and quiescent conditions will build behind the front on Wed and Thu. Another weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri. Otherwise, southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and 5-7 ft seas across the south-central to southwest Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean along with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent across the remainder of the waters including the majority of the western Caribbean. No significant convection is noted in the basin, except just offshore Panama and Costa Rica near the monsoon trough extending along 10N from the eastern Pacific Ocean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the weekend, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected across the remainder of forecast waters through Sun night, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sun night. Large E swell with rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from midweek through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N68W to central Florida with fresh to strong NE-E winds and 5-9 ft seas in N-NE swell N of the front. Scattered moderate convection is seen N of 25N and W of 60W, enhanced by an upper level trough. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by high pressure located well N of the discussion waters. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 6-9 ft prevail S and E of a line running from the Turks and Caicos Islands to the Canary Islands. Areas N and W of this line and away from the stationary front are seeing moderate or weaker trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 31N68W to just south of Cape Canaveral, Florida will lift north of the area by Thu morning. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected west of the front with scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front. Another weak cold front will move off the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W to 25N72W Fri morning, from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning, then E of the area Sun. Fresh to strong S winds are expected N of 27N ahead of the front. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC131015_C_KWBC_20260513101522_32440682-120-TWDAT.txt ****0000004671**** AXNT20 KNHC 131015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed May 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 37W from 03N to 14N, moving westward at 10 kt. The wave is devoid of significant deep convection at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 12N16W and continues SW to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 00N36W to the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 08W and 23W, and from 07S to 04N between 30W and 51W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A warm front extends across northern Florida and connects to a 1013 mb low near 28N85W from which a cold front extends SW to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the NW semicircle of the low from the Florida Big Bend to offshore SE Louisiana. Gentle to moderate notherlies are across the Bay of Campeche while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere as high pressure starts to build in the wake of the front. Seas are slight basin-wide, except moderate to 5 ft in the NW semircle of the low where the strongest winds are ongoing. For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to exit the SE Gulf tonight. Winds will be generally moderate or weaker on either side of the front, except in the vicinity of the low where fresh to strong winds are likely. High pressure and quiescent conditions will build behind the front on today and Thu. Another weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri. Otherwise, southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and 5-8 ft seas across the south-central to southwest Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean along with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent across the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, heavy showers and tstms are ongoing offshore Costa Rica near the E Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the weekend, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected across the remainder of forecast waters through Sun night, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sun night. Large E swell with rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from midweek through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front extends from 30N74W to Jacksonville, Florida. The front is generating a broad area of scattered showers and isolated tstms N of 23N from the Florida seaboard to 65W, including the Bahamas. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by high pressure located well N of the discussion waters. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 7-10 ft prevail from the coast of W Africa to just pass the Cape Verde Islands from 13N to 24N. Over the remainder tropical waters winds are moderate to fresh from the NE to E and seas are moderate to rough. Between 55W and the Bahamas, winds are moderate to fresh from the E to SE and seas moderate. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the warm front will continue to lift north of the area through Thu morning. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected west of the front with scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front. Another weak cold front will move off the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W to 25N72W Fri morning, from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning, then E of the area Sun. Fresh to strong S winds are expected N of 27N ahead of the front. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC131601_C_KWBC_20260513160126_32440682-135-TWDAT.txt ****0000004295**** AXNT20 KNHC 131601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed May 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 39W from 03N to 14N, moving westward at 10 kt. The wave is devoid of significant deep convection at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 17N17W and continues SW to 07N24W. The ITCZ extends from 07N24W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends across northern Florida and connects to a 1012 mb low near 28N84W, then a cold front extends from the low to 24N86W. A stationary front continues from that point to 20N90W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are in the NW semicircle of the low from the Florida Big Bend to offshore SE Louisiana. Gentle to moderate northerlies are across the Bay of Campeche while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere as high pressure starts to build in the wake of the fronts. Seas are slight basin- wide, except moderate to 5 ft in the NW of the low where the strongest winds are ongoing. For the forecast, the front is forecast to exit the SE Gulf tonight. High pressure and quiescent conditions will build behind the front today and Thu. Another weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri. Southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and 5-8 ft seas across the south-central to southwest Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean along with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent across the NW Caribbean. Otherwise, heavy showers and tstms are ongoing offshore Costa Rica near the E Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the weekend, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected across the remainder of forecast waters through Sun night, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sun night. Large E swell with rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters tonight through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across northern Florida and connects to a 1013 mb low near 31N85W. A broad area of scattered showers and tstms prevails across the W Atlantic mainly W of 63W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by high pressure located well N of the discussion waters. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 8-10 ft prevail from the coast of W Africa to just pass the Cape Verde Islands from 05N to 23N. Over the remainder tropical waters winds are moderate to fresh from the NE to E and seas are moderate to rough. Between 55W and the Bahamas, winds are moderate to fresh from the E to SE and seas moderate. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary off NE Florida will lift north of the area by Thu morning. A weak cold front will move off the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W to 25N72W Fri morning, from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning, then E of the area Sun. Fresh to strong S winds are expected N of 27N ahead of the front. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################