--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC180353_C_KWBC_20260718035431_9109880-8561-TWDAT.txt ****0000005757**** AXNT20 KNHC 180353 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Jul 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0335 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will continue to support NE to E winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia tonight and Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near-gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon before contracting to south of 15N. Rough to very rough seas in the 12 to 14 ft range will develop during the times of peak winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 16N and between 23W and 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 17N, moving westward at 20 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to a 1012 mb low pres near 14N24W to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N42W to 08N48W and then from 08N50W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 09N to 16N and east of 20W. Similar convection is found from 08N to 13W and between 51W to 59W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergence aloft associated with an upper level low, a weak surface trough and abundant moisture result in strong showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters. These storms can produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and suddenly higher seas. Mariners should use caution. Meanwhile, diurnal heating and tropical moisture allowed for thunderstorms to develop over western Yucatan and progress westward into the eastern Bay of Campeche, where the activity is currently diminishing. A 1020 mb high pressure centered south of Louisiana dominates the basin, supporting moderate to fresh E-SE winds south of a line from the NE Yucatan to SE Texas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast,low pressure across the eastern Gulf will remain nearly stationary through the weekend then begin to drift northward early next week, supporting periods of active thunderstorms in that region. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate, producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the period . ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. The 1027 mb subtropical ridge centered near 28N54W in the central Atlantic forces strong to gale easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured peak winds of 34 kt. Rough to very rough seas are found in these waters. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean, Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. No significant convection is evident across the Caribbean at this time. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge oriented along 27N-28N and the Colombian low will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia tonight and again Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon, before contracting to south of 15N. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening this weekend in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak surface trough in the north-central tropical Atlantic supports isolated showers north of 26N and between 36W and 44W. Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft south of 25N and west of 35W. The highest seas are occurring east of the Windward Islands. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough and east of 20W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 4-7 ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge extends along 27N-28N tonight, and will gradually weaken and drift northward this weekend, as a broad surface trough forms E of 55W. This trough will drift westward next week, reaching along 65W by Wed. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail S of 24N, with gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong winds are expected during the evenings this weekend N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC181011_C_KWBC_20260718101133_32440682-5586-TWDAT.txt ****0000006356**** AXNT20 KNHC 181011 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Jul 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the western Atlantic high pressure ridge north of the basin along 27N-28N, and the Colombian low will continue to support NE to E winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia through early this morning and then again Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon before contracting to south of 15N. Rough to very rough seas in the 12 to 14 ft range will develop during the times of peak winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 18N, moving westward near 15 kt. A 1011 mb surface low is analyzed behind the wave near 14N27W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 180 nm across the N semicircle of the surface low. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W-52W, south of 17N, moving westward at 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10.5N between 48W and 55W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16.5W and continues southwestward to a 1011 mb low pres near 14N27W to 08N43W. The ITCZ extends from 08N43W to 07.5N51W and then from 07.5N52W to 07.5N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 10N to 14N east of 22W and from 08.5N to 10.5W and between 54W to 62W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Upper level low pressure across Florida and the far eastern Gulf during the past 36-48 hours extends into the lower atmosphere, and a weak surface trough is now across the Gulf along 83W-84W. The upper low and abundant low level moisture are resulting in scattered strong showers and thunderstorms over the NE Gulf waters, N of 25N and E of 87.5W. These storms can produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and suddenly higher seas. Mariners should exercise caution across this area. Local buoys show seas of 2 to 4 ft presently. Elsewhere, 1020 mb high pressure centered south of Louisiana dominates the basin, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of a line from the NE Yucatan to SE Texas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, low pressure across the eastern Gulf will remain nearly stationary through the weekend then begin to drift northward Sun night through early next week, supporting periods of active thunderstorms in that region. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate, producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. Winds are expected to diminish below gale-force around sunrise this morning. The 1025 mb subtropical ridge centered near 28N55W in the central Atlantic extends westward to Florida, and is forcing strong to gale-force easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed peak winds of 34 kt. Rough to very rough seas to 13 ft are found in these waters. Fresh to locally strong E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present in the eastern Caribbean, and Windward Passage. Fresh winds are found across the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Isolated showers are found across the SE Caribbean waters, while scattered moderate convection extends between the Cayman Islands and the Windward Passage at this time. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge and the Colombian low, will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia through near sunrise this morning and then again Sat night. Otherwise, strong to near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon, before contracting to south of 15N through Tue. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening this weekend in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak surface trough in the north-central tropical Atlantic supports isolated showers north of 25N and between 39W and 47W. Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic extends westward along 27N-28N to Florida, and sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft south of 25N and west of 35W, with highest winds and seas between 55W and the Lesser Antilles. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 4-7 ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge extends along 27N-28N, and will gradually weaken and drift northward this weekend, as a broad surface trough forms E of 50W. This trough will shift westward and reach along 65W by Wed. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail S of 24N through early Tue, with gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong winds are expected during the evenings this weekend N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC181745_C_KWBC_20260718174537_9109880-8607-TWDAT.txt ****0000005786**** AXNT20 KNHC 181745 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Jul 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the western Atlantic high pressure ridge north of the basin along 27N-28N, and the Colombian low will continue to support NE to E winds strong to near-gale force winds today, pulsing to gale- force across the waters N of Colombia tonight. Otherwise, strong to near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon before contracting to south of 15N. Rough to very rough seas in the 12 to 14 ft range will develop during the times of peak winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, south of 19N, moving westward near 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed along the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W, south of 17N, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 50W and 57W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16.5W and continues southwestward to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 09N to 14N east of 23W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Upper level low pressure across Florida and the far eastern Gulf during the past 48 hours extends into the lower atmosphere, and a weak surface trough is now across the Gulf along 83W-84W. The upper low and abundant low level moisture are resulting in scattered strong showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf waters, N of 23N and E of 87W. These storms can produce gusty winds, frequent lightning and suddenly higher seas. Mariners should exercise caution across this area. This system has a medium formation chance through 7 days. Elsewhere, 1020 mb high pressure centered south of Louisiana dominates the basin, supporting moderate NW winds west of the trough and moderate to fresh E winds over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, a low offshore Florida will drift north over the next few days, bringing thunderstorms with heavy rain to the eastern Gulf. There is a low chance of tropical formation with this system. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate, producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features section for more details. Winds are expected to peak to gale force tonight. The 1025 mb subtropical ridge centered near 29.5N57W in the central Atlantic extends westward to the Bahamas, and is forcing strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed peak winds of 30 kt. Rough to very rough seas to 14 ft are found in these waters. Fresh E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered showers are found across the SE Caribbean waters. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge axis oriented along 27N-28N and the Colombian low will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of Colombia early tonight. Otherwise, strong to near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon, before contracting to south of 15N. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening this weekend in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak surface trough in the north-central tropical Atlantic supports isolated showers north of 25N and between 35W and 50W. Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic extends westward along 27N-28N to the Bahamas, and sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft south of 25N and west of 35W, with highest winds and seas between 52W and the Lesser Antilles. In the far eastern Atlantic, moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough and east of 35W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and seas of 4-7 ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge axis that extends along 27N-28N will gradually weaken and drift northward this weekend as a broad surface trough forms E of 50W. This trough will shift westward and reach 65W by Wed. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail S of 24N, with gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong winds are expected during the evenings this weekend N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################