--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC180434_C_KWBC_20260818043617_31523192-1105-TWDAT.txt ****0000005000**** AXNT20 KNHC 180434 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Aug 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0432 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 19.5N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Isolated convection is depicted from 07N to 12N between 16W and 21W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W, extending from 02N to 18N, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. Another central tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with its axis near 59.5W, south of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 12N to 20N between 56W and 62W. A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 78W south of 20N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Numerous moderate convection is depicted south of 14N and west of 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through 16N17W and continues southwestward to 11N21W to 10N43W, where it transitions to the ITCZ, then continues to 11.5N55W. Isolated moderate convection is depicted from 10N to 13N between 26W and 34W and between 44.5W and 53W. Additional convection is discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure of 1018 mb, centered near 26N85W, dominates the Gulf waters, supporting mainly gentle winds and slight seas. Offshore the Florida Panhandle moderate SW to W winds have developed in associated with a trough N of the area. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are over the central and eastern Bay of Campeche due to a westward moving trough that is along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas 2 to 4 ft over the waters where these winds are present. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Numerous moderate convection is noted in the NW basin W of 83W, in association with the interaction of a tropical wave to the SE and a surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. See the Tropical Waves section above for information on further convection caused by the tropical wave as well as additional thunderstorms entering the eastern basin in association with a second tropical wave. Fresh to locally strong trades and rough seas dominate the central basin, with moderate to fresh trades in the eastern and southwest basin, along with moderate seas. In the NW basin, away from convection where locally higher winds and seas are likely, gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean waters will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail in the north-central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1014 mb low center north of the area near 33N53W southwestward to 31N53.5W to 27N61W and northwestward to 31N74W. East of the front, to about 46W, and N of 27N, scattered moderate convection and fresh to strong SW winds prevail. To the W, south of the boundary to 24.5N, scattered moderate convection also is ongoing. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1028 mb high pressure center located north of the Azores. Its related gradient is supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will stall and weaken into a trough by Tue. Fresh to locally strong winds in the vicinity of the front will diminish tonight. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across much of the area N of 22N through the week. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds can be expected S of 22N. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC180933_C_KWBC_20260818093419_31523192-1124-TWDAT.txt ****0000004035**** AXNT20 KNHC 180933 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Aug 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0925 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 24N, south of 19N, moving westward at about 10 kt. A few showers are noted near the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 40W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 62W, south of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 19N and between 57W and 67W. A SW Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W, south of 20N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 15N and west of 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... Th monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N30W and to 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 06N to 15N and east of 37W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak high pressure across the Gulf waters support moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across much of the basin. For the forecast, a weak high pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft across much of the basin, especially south of 18N. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are found elsewhere. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean waters will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail in the north-central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low center north of the area near 37N49W southwestward to 31N51W to 26N63W and northwestward to 31N71W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh SW-S winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted north of 26N and ahead of the front to 44W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas. However, fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found in the far eastern Atlantic off NW Mauritania and southern Western Sahara. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will stall and weaken into a trough today into tonight. Fresh winds in the vicinity of the front will diminish today. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across much of the area N of 22N through the week and into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds can be expected S of 22N. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################