--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC180428_C_KWBC_20261018042902_38011292-5837-TWDAT.txt ****0000008102**** AXNT20 KNHC 180428 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends across the southern Gulf tonight from near Naples, Florida, to 21N94W, then is nearly stationary southward across the central Bay of Campeche to the Mexican coast along 93.5W. Strong high pressure dominates most of the eastern U.S. and extends across the Gulf behind the front. This is forcing near storm-force NW winds behind the front from Coatzacoalcos to offshore of Veracruz, Mexico, where seas have built to 18-22 ft. A broader area of gale force winds and very rough seas are present behind the front offshore Mexico from Tampico to the central Bay of Campeche. Frequent gusts in excess of gale force are occurring within 90 nm of the NE Gulf coast, where a Gale Warning is also in effect. Elsewhere across the Gulf NE to N winds of 20 to 30 kt prevail, with seas of 8 to 15 ft. These gales will continue into Mon morning, before the cold front clears the basin and winds begin to diminish. Peak seas may exceed 25 ft in the Bay of Campeche late tonight and Sun, with rough seas prevailing across large portions of the basin through Tue. Atlantic Gale Warning: This same cold front continues to move SE across the western Atlantic waters, and extends from 31N75W to the SE Florida coast near Lake Worth and across S Florida. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows N winds 20 to 30 kt behind the front, with frequent gusts over gale-force N of 28N and west of 75W, where a Gale Warning is in effect. Seas behind the front have built quickly to 8 to 12 ft. The front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate through mid week. Gale-force gusts are expected to continue across the northwestern zones through Sun. Seas behind the front are expected to build to 10 to 18 ft in N to NE swell on Sun, and higher in the Gulfstream. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to 08.5N16W. The ITCZ then extends from 07N17W to 05.5N32W to 10N44W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 07N and E of 17W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12.5N between 36W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... See Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warnings in effect for portions of the Gulf of America and the western Atlantic, behind a cold front. Scattered to locally numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are present along and within 60- nm S of the cold front, from SW Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Recent buoy data shows seas are 7 to 12 ft to the N of 25N and much higher across the SW Gulf, as described above. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail south of the front across the SE basin and the eastern Bay of Campeche, where seas are 3 to 6 ft and higher near the front. For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeastward, and slow down its forward progress as it reaches from the Florida Straits to Merida, Mexico by early Sun, then drift to the southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gale-force winds off Veracruz will persist over the SW Gulf through Sun night, with sea subsiding below 20 ft. Gales will diminish in the west- central Gulf by early Sun, and frequent gusts to gale force elsewhere behind the front should diminish by Sun early in the afternoon. Strong NE winds and rough seas will persist elsewhere north of the front into early next week. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley behind the front, maintaining fresh NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf into mid-week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep-layer moisture is interacting with an upper-level trough across the Yucatan Channel and Peninsula to produce divergence is inducing scattered moderate convection across the Gulf of Honduras south of 18N. Meanwhile, favorable upper level conditions are supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms occurring in a 180 nm wide band from NE Colombia to the Honduras-Nicaragau border. To the east and northeast, a broad upper trough is producing very stable conditions, and fair skies. At the surface, moderate to fresh trades prevail across the central basin between 64W and 78W, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere gentle to moderate easterly trades and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, as the cold front has moved across the Western Atlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient across the Caribbean has relaxed, supporting moderate to fresh winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through Thu. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean tonight. The Gulf of America cold front will likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel by Tue then gradually dissipate. Large seas in northerly swell associated with the front are expected to move through the Yucatan Channel with hazardous conditions midday Sun into early Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning for waters offshore NE Florida. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is ongoing along and E of the cold front extending from 31N75W to the SE Florida coast near Lake Worth. Convection is generally occurring from the cold front to the NW Bahamas and then northeastward to near 31N70W. Light SE to S winds and seas 4 ft or less prevail E of the front to 65W. More scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from 19N to 29N between 45W and 57W, in association with a deep- layer trough across that area. Further to the east, a broad area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 25N between 32W and 42W, in association with another deep-layer trough. Strong high pressure located NW of the Azores extends a broad ridge southwestward to the central Bahamas, but drapes across a series of surface troughs from 20N and 30W between 38W and 60W. The pressure gradient N of these trough is yielding moderate to fresh easterly winds with seas of 6 to 8 ft in N swell. S of the area, southward of 25N, gentle to moderate easterly trades prevail across the Tropical Atlantic, where seas are 4 to 6 ft between 30W and 65W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found N of 20N and E of 30W to Africa, with gentle to moderate winds and seas found there S of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, the strong cold front will continue to move southeastward and reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate through mid week. Strong to near-gale force winds and very rough seas to 18 ft will follow the front, affecting mainly the waters west of 65W through Tue. Associated northerly swell will linger through much of the week. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC181049_C_KWBC_20261018105004_38011292-5868-TWDAT.txt ****0000006810**** AXNT20 KNHC 181049 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from Marco Island, Florida to 21N91W where it transitions into a stationary front that extends to the central Bay of Campeche. Strong to gale- force winds and very rough seas to 25 ft follow the front over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz. Fresh to strong NE winds with frequent gusts to gale force winds behind the front over the NE Gulf will continue through today. The front will slow down as it reaches from the Florida Straits to Merida, Mexico later today, then drift to the southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gale-force winds off Veracruz will persist over the SW Gulf through tonight. Peak seas may exceed 25 ft in the Bay of Campeche today, with rough seas prevailing across large portions of the basin through Tue. Atlantic Gale Warning: This same cold front continues to move SE across the western Atlantic waters, and extends from 31N73W to near Deerfield Beach, Florida. North winds of 25 to 30 kt are behind the front, with frequent gusts over gale-force N of 28N and west of 75W, where a Gale Warning is in effect. Seas behind the front have built quickly to 18 ft. The front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida later this morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate through mid week. Gale-force gusts are expected to continue across the northwestern zones through today. Seas behind the front are expected to build to 18 ft in N to NE swell today, and higher in the Gulfstream. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to 07N15W. The ITCZ begins near 05N19W to 06N40W to 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 07N and E of 19W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 41W and 57W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... See Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warnings in effect for portions of the Gulf of America behind a cold front. A cold front extends from Marco Island, Florida to 21N91W where it transitions into a stationary front that extends to the central Bay of Campeche. Strong to gale-force winds and very rough seas follow the front over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz while fresh to strong NE winds with frequent gusts to gale force winds are behind the front over the NE Gulf. Aside from the winds and seas, scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the front over the SE Gulf, the Straits of Florida and the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds with frequent gusts to gale force winds behind the front over the NE Gulf will continue through today. The front will slow down as it reaches from the Florida Straits to Merida, Mexico later today, then drift to the southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gale-force winds off Veracruz will persist over the SW Gulf through tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will persist elsewhere north of the front and E of 90W into Tue. Looking ahead, strong high pressure building over the lower Mississippi Valley behind the front, will prolong fresh NE to E winds over the eastern half of the Gulf into mid-week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and tstms prevail over the NW Caribbean being supported by a middle level inverted trough while heavier showers are ongoing over the SW basin supported by the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon. The passage of a cold front N of the area is supporing a rather weak gradient over the region, which is maintaining moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean. For the forecast, a weaker pressure gradient across the region due to the passage of a cold front across the Bahamas and the southern Gulf of America will maintain moderate to fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean through Thu and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. The cold front will likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel Mon night into Tue where it will stall before dissipating. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to rough seas will likely impact the Yucatan Channel and NW Cuba adjacent waters through early Wed morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning for waters offshore NE Florida. A strong cold front extends from 31N73W to near Deerfield Beach, Florida. North winds of 25 to 30 kt are behind the front, with frequent gusts over gale-force N of 28N and west of 75W, where a Gale Warning is in effect. Seas behind the front have built quickly to 18 ft. Scattered showers and tstms are ahead of the front, affecting the Bahamas and offshores N of 22N W of 65W. Strong high pressure located NW of the Azores extends a broad ridge southwestward to 65W, but drapes across a series of surface troughs from 22N and 29W between 40W and 60W. The pressure gradient N of these troughs is yielding moderate to fresh easterly winds with seas of 6 to 8 ft in N swell between 37W and 44W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are also between NW Africa and 30W N of the Cape Verde Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida later this morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon morning where it will stall before dissipating into midweek. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front affecting mainly the waters west of 65W through Tue, although seas will linger through much of the week. Frequent gusts to gale-force winds are forecast behind the front north of 29N and west of 77W today through early Mon morning. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################