--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC090457_C_KWBC_20261009045841_4522426-6025-TWDAT.txt ****0000007254**** AXNT20 KNHC 090457 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Isaias is centered near 25.4N 88.4W at 09/0300 UTC or 260 nm NNE of Progreso Mexico, moving NE at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is across the eastern Gulf between 83W-90W. Seas up to 32 ft are expected in the area of strongest winds. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast on Friday and make landfall within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and will spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the Cabo Verde Islands and extends along 26W, south of 19N moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between the W coast of Africa and 30W. A tropical wave is moving across the west-central Caribbean, with axis is along 78W, moving westward at around 15 kt. This wave is interacting with a broad upper-level low over the W Caribbean. At this time, scattered showers are noted across the northern half of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues westward to 1014 mb low near 12N33W to 12N40W. The ITCZ extends from 12N40W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough and E of 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Isaias. An old frontal boundary extends from the western Atlantic across central Florida and into the north-central Gulf waters to near 25N94W. Convection remains active along the frontal boundary. High pressure across the southeastern U.S. extends across the northern Gulf. The pressure gradient between this high and the front is forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds to the north of the front. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these winds per altimeter data. Elsewhere, fresh W to NW winds wrap cyclonically across the SW Gulf and into the western Yucatan, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Isaias will move to 27.1N 87.6W Fri morning, 29.9N 87.1W Fri evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.2N 87.3W Sat morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.1N 87.5W Sat evening, inland to 36.1N 86.1W Sun morning, and inland to 38.0N 83.0W Sun evening. Isaias will dissipate late Mon. Swells generated by the cyclone will spread northward across the basin central Gulf through Sat night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker return flow over the western Gulf through midweek. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker return flow over the western Gulf through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient over the region is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the central and eastern portions of the basin while gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are over the western portion, except for fresh southeast to south winds north of 19N and west of 85W. As previously mentioned, a tropical wave with axis along 76W is generated scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the eastern and central Caribbean will continue over the next few days. Winds will pulse to strong speeds at night Fri through Sun. Hurricane Isaias over the central Gulf of America is producing fresh southerly winds in the Yucatan Channel and these winds will lift northward Fri. Meanwhile, a tropical wave near 78W is producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms in the area. The wave will move across the western Caribbean tonight through the weekend while weakening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N65W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary. Moderate easterly winds are N of the front and W of 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail N of 28N between 59W and 66W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A 1018 mb high is centered near 27N58W, and extends a broad ridge westward to the Bahamas. Across the central Atlantic, a deep layered upper trough has induced a surface trough below it, and extends from 27N48W to 20N53W. This deep layered feature is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 20N and E of the trough axis to about 37W. A broad surface ridge, associated with the Azores High, dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with both the aforementioned surface trough and a dissipating cold front over NW Africa, is supporting fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas N of 20N and E of 44W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to weaken and the eastern portion will transition to a cold front tonight while its western portion will lift back N as a warm front on Sat. Winds will reach fresh to strong speeds off NE Florida late tonight as Hurricane Isaias will be tracking northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE at fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to moderate speeds by Sun morning. Otherwise, as high pressure moves into the western Atlantic, a tightening pressure gradient will support NE-E winds of fresh to locally strong speeds and rough seas behind a cold front over the eastern waters, mainly N of 25N, Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. southeastern coast early on Mon and move across the waters N of 29N through Tue night while it weakens. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC090957_C_KWBC_20261009095744_4522426-6045-TWDAT.txt ****0000006712**** AXNT20 KNHC 090957 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Isaias is centered near 26.4N 88.0W at 09/0900 UTC or 320 nm NNE of Progreso Mexico, moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is across the eastern Gulf between 83W-90W. Strongest storms are occurring within 90 nm of the center of Isaias. Seas near the center are up to 32 ft. A turn toward the north is expected later today. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to approach the U.S. northern Gulf Coast this afternoon and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Saturday. Isaias is likely to become a major hurricane this morning. Slight weakening is expected before landfall, but it is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane. Swells from Isaias are affecting the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and will spread northward toward the Gulf Coast later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 17N and east of 38W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 15N to 23N and between 74W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues westward to 1012 mb low near 12N33W to 09N41W. Please see the Tropical Waves section for information on the convection over the eastern Atlantic. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Isaias centered over the central Gulf of America. A stationary front extends from the western Atlantic across central Florida and into the north-central Gulf waters near 28N89W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near this boundary as it interacts with Isaias. Some showers and thunderstorms are also evident in the SW Gulf waters. Outside of the direct influence of Isaias, moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas prevail. For the forecast, Isaias will move to 28.4N 87.3W this afternoon, inland to 31.0N 87.1W Sat morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 33.5N 87.5W Sat afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 35.5N 86.7W Sun morning, inland to 38.2N 83.1W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. Swells generated by the cyclone will spread northward across the basin central Gulf through Sat night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker return flow over the western Gulf through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active tropical wave in the western Caribbean. A weak subtropical ridge between Bermuda and the Outer Banks sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are noted west of 82W due to the influence of Hurricane Isaias currently over the Gulf of America. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient results in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the eastern and central Caribbean and this will continue over the next few days. Winds will pulse to strong speeds and seas will reach 8 ft tonight through Sun night in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Venezuela. Hurricane Isaias over the central Gulf of America is producing fresh southerly winds in the Yucatan Channel and these winds will lift northward today. Meanwhile, a tropical wave near 79W is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the area. Unsettled weather conditions will remain associated with this wave as it moves across the western Caribbean through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from south of Bermuda to central Florida near Melbourne. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found off NE Florida. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft. A strong 1033 mb high pressure system just north of the Azores and a surface trough along 50W combine to support moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft north of the monsoon trough and east of 50W. A few showers are seen east of the surface trough. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will lift back N as a warm front on Sat. Fresh to strong E winds and rough seas are expected today off NE Florida as Hurricane Isaias tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE at moderate to fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to gentle to moderate speeds by Sun. Otherwise, as high pressure moves into the western Atlantic, a tightening pressure gradient will support NE-E winds of fresh to locally strong speeds and rough seas behind a cold front over the eastern waters, mainly N of 26N, Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. southeastern coast early on Mon and move across the waters N of 29N through Tue night while it weakens. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will dominate much of the basin early next week. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC091717_C_KWBC_20261009171747_4522426-6078-TWDAT.txt ****0000007900**** AXNT20 KNHC 091717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Isaias is centered near 27.7N 87.3W at 1500 UTC or 170 nm S of Pensacola, FL, moving NNE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, making Isaias a major hurricane. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is across the eastern Gulf N of 26.5N between 85W and 88.5W, with the strongest storms within 90 nm of the center of Isaias. Seas near the center are up to 33 ft. A general northward motion is expected throughout the remainder of today, with landfall expected within the warning area tonight or early Saturday. Little change in strength is anticipatedbefore landfall, and Isaias will likely remain a dangerous hurricane until landfall. Swells from Isaias are affecting the coastlines of most of the eastern Gulf to SE Louisiana, and will increase along the Gulf coasts from SW Florida to Louisiana throughout the afternoon and evening. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life-threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 19N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 05.5N to 16N and east of 29W to the coast of Africa. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W-80W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. This wave continues to interact with an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean, and is producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 13.5N to 22N and between 76.5W and 81.5W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 14.5N17W and continues southwestward to 09N24W to 11.5N35W to 09N40W. ITCZ extends from 09N48W to 10N62W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07.5N to 14N between 30W and 40W, and from 090N to 11N between 50W and 62W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 14.5N between 44.5W and 48W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Major Hurricane Isaias centered over the northeast Gulf of America. Tropical storm force winds have moved to near or along the Gulf coast from Apalachicola, FL to SE Louisiana late this morning, with seas now 8 to 15 ft and rising across those waters. A 30 to 60 nm wide rainband extends from the eastern periphery of Isaias near 29N84W south-southwestward through the Yucatan Channel. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds spiral into Isaias from the Yucatan Channel northward between the western Florida coastal waters and the central Louisiana coastal waters near 93W. Elsewhere, a dissipating stationary front extends across N Florida and into the NE Gulf along 29N. Moderate to fresh cyclonic N to W winds prevail across the W and SW Gulf, where seas are 4 to 8 ft in NE to E swell from Isaias. Scattered showers are across the central Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, Isaias will move to near 29.7N 86.8W this evening, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.1N 87.1W Sat morning with maximum sustained winds 55 kt, then weaken to a tropical depression well inland by Sun morning. Swell generated by Isaias will spread northward across the basin central Gulf through Sat night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop over the north- central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker return flow over the western Gulf through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active tropical wave in the western Caribbean. Weak 1019 mb high pressure has shifted southward into the western Atlantic near 26N62W, to the south of a cold front now along about 30N. The associated pressure gradient is sustaining moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas to 6 ft across the basin between the tropical wave along 79W-80W and 63W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are noted west of 84W through the Yucatan Channel, blowing into the general circulation of Hurricane Isaias. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient is expected to continue across the basin through the next few days. Winds will pulse to strong speeds and seas will reach 8 ft tonight through Sun night in the south- central Caribbean and Gulf of Venezuela. Hurricane Isaias over the central Gulf of America is producing fresh southerly winds in the Yucatan Channel and these winds will lift northward later today. Meanwhile, a tropical wave near 80W, in combination with an upper- level low, is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 16N between 76W and 82W. Unsettled weather conditions will remain associated with this wave as it moves across the western Caribbean through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has drifted southward into the northern waters, extending from the central Atlantic through 31N60W to 29N64W, then meanders westward along about 30N into NE Florida. A weak 1019 mb high has developed south of this front near 26N62W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are found north of the front off NE Florida and GA. South of the front, a weak pressure gradient prevails west of 50W, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft. An upper-level trough continues across the central Atlantic, extending S-SW across the area waters between 45W and 55W, and continues to produce scattered showers to the E between 40W and 52W. A surface trough along about 52W is drifting westward. A strong 1034 mb high pressure system is just north of the Azores and the surface trough along 52W combine to support moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft north of the monsoon trough and east of 46W. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front along about 30N and W of 64W will lift N as a warm front tonight into Sat. Fresh to strong E winds and rough seas are expected today off NE Florida as Hurricane Isaias tracks northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE at moderate to fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to gentle to moderate speeds by Sun. Otherwise, as high pressure moves across the western Atlantic, a tightening pressure gradient will support NE to E winds of fresh to locally strong speeds and rough seas behind a cold front over the eastern waters, mainly N of 26N, Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. southeastern coast early on Mon and move across the waters N of 29N through Tue night while it weakens. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will dominate much of the basin early next week. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC092314_C_KWBC_20261009231512_31523192-6095-TWDAT.txt ****0000008519**** AXNT20 KNHC 092314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Isaias is centered near 29.2N 87.0W at 09/2100 UTC or 80 nm S of Pensacola Florida, moving N at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are up to 37 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is across the eastern Gulf N of 28N between 85W and 88.5W. This convection is affecting the western Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. Isaias is moving toward the north, and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A north-northeastward to northeastward motion is forecast on Sunday. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to make landfall along the coast of the western Florida Panhandle this evening. The center is then expected to move across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley Saturday and Sunday. Isaias is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before Isaias makes landfall this evening. Weakening is expected to begin tonight after landfall, and Isaias is forecast to become post-tropical on Saturday. From Friday through the weekend, Isaias is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, and southwest Georgia. Localized totals up to 15 inches are possible, particularly within banding across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Swells from Isaias are affecting much of the Gulf coasts of the United States, Mexico, and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 28W, south of 19N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed mainly on the east side of the wave axis from 05N to 16N and east of 29W to the coast of Africa. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W/81W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. This wave continues to interact with an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean, and is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 13N to 21N between 75W and 83W. Part of this convective activity is affecting Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N30W to 10N42W. ITCZ extends from 10N42W to near Trinidad and Tobago in the Windward Islands. In addition to the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is evident from 09N to 14N between 34W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Major Hurricane Isaias centered over the northeast Gulf of America. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Isaias dominate most of the easter Gulf, reaching as far south as 23N based on an altimeter pass. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds spiral into Isaias from the Yucatan Channel northward between the western Florida coastal waters and the central Louisiana coastal waters near 92W. Elsewhere, a dissipating stationary front extends across N Florida. Moderate to fresh cyclonic N to NW winds prevail across the western Gulf, where seas are 4 to 8 ft in NE to E swell from Isaias. Scattered showers nd isolated thunderstorms are occurring across the central Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, Hurricane Isaias will move inland to near 31.2N 86.8W late tonight, weaken to a tropical storm well north of the area Sat afternoon, and dissipate Mon afternoon. Swells generated by Isaias will continue to spread across most of the basin through Sat night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker easterly winds south of about 26N into the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active tropical wave in the western Caribbean. Weak 1019 mb high pressure has shifted southward into the western Atlantic near 27N67W, to the south of a frontal boundary located near 30N. The associated pressure gradient is sustaining moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the central Caribbean mainly N of 12N to the coast of Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are noted over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are observed west of 84W through the Yucatan Channel, blowing into the general circulation of Hurricane Isaias. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are prevalent over the remainder of the NW Caribbean as well as over the SW part of the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate seas are with these winds. These conditions are expected to continue through the next few days. Winds will pulse to strong speeds and seas will reach 8 ft tonight through Sun night in the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Venezuela. Meanwhile, a tropical wave near 81W, in combination with an upper-level low, is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms N of 14N between 76W and 80W. Unsettled weather conditions will remain associated with this wave as it moves across the rest of the western Caribbean through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure located N of area near 33N55W to 29N63W then stationary to 30N70W and to NE Florida. A weak 1019 mb high is south of this front near 27N67W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found north of the front off NE Florida and Georgia. South of the front, a weak pressure gradient prevails west of 50W, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft with the exception of moderate to fresh SE winds N of Hispaniola to about 23N between 68W and 73W. An upper-level low is spinning Ne of the Leeward Islands producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. A surface trough is analyzed from 30N49W to 21N53W and continues to produce scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1031 mb high pressure located just NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports moderate to fresh winds NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough and E of 40W to the coast of W Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary portion of the front will lift back N as a warm front tonight into Sat. Fresh to strong east winds and rough seas are expected off NE Florida through Sat night. These winds will veer to the SE at moderate to fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to gentle to moderate speeds by Sun. Otherwise, as high pressure moves across the western Atlantic, a tightening pressure gradient will support northeast to east winds of fresh to locally strong speeds and rough seas behind a cold front over the eastern waters, mainly N of 26N, Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. southeastern coast early on Mon and move across the waters N of 29N through Wed night while weakening. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will dominate much of the basin next week. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################