--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC150427_C_KWBC_20260615042735_32440682-2894-TWDAT.txt ****0000005220**** AXNT20 KNHC 150427 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic along 19W, south of 16N, based on satellite imagery, total precipitable water and wave diagnostic data. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 11N and east of 24W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 02N to 09N and between 25W and 38W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 08N and west of 45W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 14N and between the wave and 61W. The tropical wave previously in the western Caribbean Sea has moved into the eastern Pacific. Please read the Eastern Pacific's Tropical Weather Discussion for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 07N26W. The ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 05N33W and then from 05N36W to 05N49W. Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the convection. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak high pressure over the NE Gulf waters dominates the basin, supporting moderate to fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf and off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, a trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico will remain inland and drift northward over northeastern Mexico and then into southern Texas through Wed. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf Wed, where environmental conditions may support some development around midweek. The pressure gradient between the trough and a ridge across the Gulf region will support fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf, likely through Thu, as the pressure gradient tightens further. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers and thunderstorms are noted off Panama, Costa Rica and Cuba. The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas over much of the basin, south of 19N. The strongest winds and highest seas are noted off Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, 1023 mb high pressure near 26N62W extends a ridge westward through the central Bahamas and into the eastern Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean through early Mon. Then, the ridge will reorganize to the E Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu, leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 24N and between 60W and 75W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 35W. In the far east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found north of 16N and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, 1023 mb high pressure near 26N62W extends a ridge westward through the central Bahamas and into the eastern Gulf of America. The ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon, then reorganize to the E Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N through Wed. Fresh SW winds are expected across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W tonight through early Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC151743_C_KWBC_20260615174434_9109880-5927-TWDAT.txt ****0000005518**** AXNT20 KNHC 151743 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 21W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 10N between 14W and 26W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 08N and between 32W and 40W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present S of 09N between 51W and 60W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 18N, moving westward at near 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the waters behind the wave south of 14N, between the wave and 67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 05N38W and then resumes from 05N40W to 05.5N52W. In addition to convection described above in the TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 20W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic support moderate to fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as well as in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail elsehwere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-4 ft E of 90W to 4-6 ft W of 90W. For the forecast, a trough just inland northeastern Mexico will drift northward during the next couple of days. It is then forecast to move northeastward along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf late Tue or Wed, at which time environmental conditions may support some development. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf during this time. Some of this activity may produce wind gusts to near gale force. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between a western Atlantic ridge that stretches west-northwestward to the NE Gulf and the low pressure will sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf early Wed through Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed from 31N43W to 26N48W, with scattered moderate convection seen E of the trough axis out to about 37W and N of 28N. Fresh SW winds are also confirmed by recent scatterometer data E of the trough to about 40W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also ongoing along a surface trough off the SE US coast. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of a subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the basin S of 22N, as well as N of 22N and E of 35W. NE winds are locally strong in between the Canary Islands, per recent scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area will change little through the period generally maintaining moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N throughout the week. Moderate to fresh southwest winds east of northeast Florida to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These winds will expand eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC152010_C_KWBC_20260615201136_9109880-5940-TWDAT.txt ****0000007962**** AXNT20 KNHC 152010 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life- threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tue. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers ABNT20 KNHC/TWOAT or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 22W, south of 18N just east of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 11N between 13W and 24W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 09N and between 34W and 41W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 18N to Suriname, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 10N between 51W and 62W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N or Hispaniola to portions of far NW Venezuela and eastern Colombia, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the waters south of 16N in the south-central Caribbean with deep convection present and enhanced over portions of Venezuela and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N33W. The ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 06N40W and then resumes from 05.5N42.5W to 07N55W. In addition to convection described above in the TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is found from 05N to 08N between 45W and 49W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of America. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic support moderate to locally fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as well as in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-2 E of 90W, except to 4 ft near the Yucatan Channel, and 3-5 ft W of 90W. For the forecast, a trough with weak low pressure along it is inland northeastern Mexico. It will slowly move northward during the next couple of days. It is then forecast to move northeastward along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf late Tue or Wed, at which time environmental conditions may be marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm Wed into Thu. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW Gulf through Thu. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the area will sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf early Wed through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean, except locally strong offshore central Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed from 31N42W to 25N55W to 19N64W, with scattered moderate convection seen N of 29N between 35W and 50W. Another surface trough is analyzed N of the Bahamas from 31N76W to 27N79W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are N of 27N and E of the trough to 67W along with 4-6 ft seas. Some scattered showers are found near the trough. Otherwise, ridging extends and dominates from 31N28W to 1024 mb high pressure near 29N34W to 1022 mb high pressure near 26N61W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters W of 35W, except moderate to fresh S of 22N near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are found offshore Africa from 20N to 31N to the E of 20W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found from this area to the Lesser Antilles in a belt extending N of the ITCZ where three Atlantic tropical waves are present as described in detail above. Seas of 3-6 ft dominate the open tropical Atlantic waters in mixed NE-E and NW-N swells. For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing some in coverage beginning Fri night. Moderate to fresh southwest winds east of northeast Florida to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These winds will expand eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. It is expected to move offshore late Fri night and stall offshore northeast Florida Sat and Sat night. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC152303_C_KWBC_20260615230338_9109880-5951-TWDAT.txt ****0000007962**** AXNT20 KNHC 152303 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the trough remains inland. However, the system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life- threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required on Tue. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers ABNT20 KNHC/TWOAT or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 22W, south of 18N just east of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 11N between 13W and 24W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 09N and between 34W and 41W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 18N to Suriname, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 10N between 51W and 62W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N or Hispaniola to portions of far NW Venezuela and eastern Colombia, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen over the waters south of 16N in the south-central Caribbean with deep convection present and enhanced over portions of Venezuela and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 07N33W. The ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 06N40W and then resumes from 05.5N42.5W to 07N55W. In addition to convection described above in the TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is found from 05N to 08N between 45W and 49W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the Gulf of America. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring along and near the coasts of NE Mexico, Texas, and SW Louisiana with a frontal boundary inland over Texas and Mexico, as well as multiple surface troughs analyzed inland. The tightening pressure gradient between these troughs and a subtropical ridge stemming from the Atlantic support moderate to locally fresh SE winds and in the W Gulf, as well as in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas in the Gulf range from 1-2 E of 90W, except to 4 ft near the Yucatan Channel, and 3-5 ft W of 90W. For the forecast, a trough with weak low pressure along it is inland northeastern Mexico. It will slowly move northward during the next couple of days. It is then forecast to move northeastward along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf late Tue or Wed, at which time environmental conditions may be marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm Wed into Thu. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW Gulf through Thu. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the area will sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf early Wed through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing in the far SW Caribbean, near the East Pacific monsoon trough. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong E winds and rough seas across much of the central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean, except locally strong offshore central Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the gradient between broad Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures south of the Greater Antilles will sustain a rather extensive area of fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central section of the basin through the forecast period. The highest of the winds and seas are expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will become southeast at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed from 31N42W to 25N55W to 19N64W, with scattered moderate convection seen N of 29N between 35W and 50W. Another surface trough is analyzed N of the Bahamas from 31N76W to 27N79W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are N of 27N and E of the trough to 67W along with 4-6 ft seas. Some scattered showers are found near the trough. Otherwise, ridging extends and dominates from 31N28W to 1024 mb high pressure near 29N34W to 1022 mb high pressure near 26N61W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters W of 35W, except moderate to fresh S of 22N near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are found offshore Africa from 20N to 31N to the E of 20W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found from this area to the Lesser Antilles in a belt extending N of the ITCZ where three Atlantic tropical waves are present as described in detail above. Seas of 3-6 ft dominate the open tropical Atlantic waters in mixed NE-E and NW-N swells. For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure over the area will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing some in coverage beginning Fri night. Moderate to fresh southwest winds east of northeast Florida to near 74W are ahead of a trough. These winds will expand eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. It is expected to move offshore late Fri night and stall offshore northeast Florida Sat and Sat night. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################