--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-28 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC280504_C_KWBC_20260528050548_49676782-4154-TWDAT.txt ****0000005689**** AXNT20 KNHC 280504 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu May 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W from 00N to 14N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis from 05N-08N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W from 01N to 12N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen south of 06N between 49W and 51W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W south of 14N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The convection noted with this wave remains over Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 16N17W and continues southwestward to 06N23W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N37W, then resumes near 06N41W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between 30W-36W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The upper-level flow pattern attributed to a robust upper-level trough over the west-central Gulf. This pattern is drawing abundant deep tropical moisture northward from the Caribbean and into the central Gulf. A squall line moving quickly east- southeastward across the NW Gulf waters is analyzed from 28N92W to 24N94W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some strong, prevail over the western half of the basin. Fresh to strong winds prevail NW of the squall line, while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere over the W Gulf. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient related to the western extension of weak Atlantic ridging is maintaining moderate or weaker winds. Seas are of moderate state with these winds. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends westward across north Florida and the northern Gulf coasts, and will sustain moderate to fresh SE to S winds through Fri, then diminish to gentle to moderate over the weekend. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh to strong winds off the northern Yucatan this evening and again Thu. The upper-level trough across the west- central Gulf should continue to combine with abundant tropical moisture to produce scattered showers and strong thunderstorms over the central and eastern Gulf through Thu. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The interaction between high pressure of 1021 mb centered over the western Atlantic with relatively lower pressure to the south over the Caribbean and in northern South America is bringing fresh to near gale-force trades along with rough seas over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and mostly moderate seas are present elsewhere. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail over Central America. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between 1021 mb high pressure in the western Atlantic and a 1006 mb Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the central Caribbean through Thu morning before gradually diminishing in areal coverage Thu evening through Fri. Winds are expected to pulse to near-gale force off northwestern Colombia tonight through Thu morning. Trades in the Gulf of Honduras and just north of Jamaica will reach fresh to strong through early Thu morning. The high pressure will shift east Thu night through the weekend, leaving a weakened Atlantic ridge north of the Caribbean. This will yield moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the basin through the weekend, except the south- central basin, where fresh to strong winds and rough seas will remain. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1021 mb is located near 29N68W, with a ridge stretching westward across northern Florida and to the north- central Gulf of America. To the east, a 1025 mb high center is near 31N27W. A weak trough extends from near 30N54W to 25N58W. No significant convection is occurring with these features. Another trough is analyzed from 29N25W to 26N30W. High pressure is present over the rest of the basin north of about 15N anchored by the two previously mentioned high centers. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate to rough seas are south of 20N and east of 35W, also south of about 25N and east of 35W, and south of a line from northeast Florida to the northern Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted. Seas with these winds are of moderate state. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas south of 24N and west of 65W through tonight, including the Great Bahama Bank, as the high begins to shift eastward. The ridge will remain in place, but weaken as this occurs, allowing winds and seas to begin to diminish. Two cold fronts will sweep eastward across the north Atlantic are expected to produce increasing winds and seas north of 28N and east of 70W from Thu night through Fri evening, then again from Sat night through Sun night. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################