--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-02-12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC120543_C_KWBC_20260212054331_29294990-7730-TWDAT.txt ****0000005553**** AXNT20 KNHC 120543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Feb 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a high pressure east of the Bahamas and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will support near-gale to gale-force ENE winds offshore Colombia near Barranquilla tonight. Seas under these winds are expected to be 9 to 11 ft (2.5 to 3.5 m). Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large NW swell will cause 12 to 13 ft (3.5 to 4.0 m) seas north of 30N between 55W and 65W from early Thursday morning through late Thursday night. Seas are forecast to drop below 12 ft by early Friday morning as the swell decays. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone, then extends southwestward to 02N22W. An ITCZ continues from 02N22W across 00N27W to 01S37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 01N to 04N between 18W and 23W, and from 00N to 02N between 29W and 32W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A frontal boundary meanders along the Gulf coast states from southern Texas to the Panhandle of Florida. Scattered showers are seen south of this feature across the northwestern and north- central Gulf, north of 28N. A surface trough is causing similar weather at the central Gulf. Otherwise, a 1022 mb high at the west-central Gulf and its related ridge dominate much of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the Gulf through Fri, bringing gentle SE winds. Southerly winds will increase to moderate to fresh Fri night into Sat ahead of a cold front that will moves cross the western and central Gulf Sat night and Sun. Strong winds and rough seas are possible in the northern Gulf with this frontal system. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning. A surface trough is generating scattered showers south of Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Strong to gale-force NE winds and 9 to 11 ft seas are evident at the south-central basin. Fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are seen at the north-central and parts of the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and lower pressure across Colombia will relax some Thu to allow fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia into early next week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail through the weekend. Rough seas over Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles associated with long-period N well will continue to decay into Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section at the beginning about rough seas across the western and central. Two surface troughs are producing patchy showers just northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and well northeast of the Lesser Antilles from 18N to 22N between 44W and 51W. A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from the southern Azores across 31N35W to 22N52W. No significant weather is associated with this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted north of 28N and west of 60W. Farther south, light to gentle winds with seas at 4 to 8 ft in moderate to large NW swell are present from 24N to 28N and west of 50W, along the Atlantic Ridge axis. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft in large NW swell exist north 20N between 35W and 50W. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N/24N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and 8 to 10 ft swell dominate. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in mixed swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, strong SW to W winds N of 28N, ahead of a cold front that will spread south of 28N late tonight, then move slowly southeast through the area into Sat. Rough to very rough seas will accompany the strong winds as they progress eastward ahead of the front across northern waters. The front will gradually weaken, and the strong winds will diminish by Fri. Strong S to SW winds will develop offshore Florida Sun ahead of another cold that will move off the southeastern U.S. Mon. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC121016_C_KWBC_20260212101633_29294990-7747-TWDAT.txt ****0000004730**** AXNT20 KNHC 121016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Feb 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure SE of Bermuda and lower pressure over northwest Colombia is supporting gale force ENE winds offshore Colombia near Barranquilla early this morning, along with seas of up to 11 ft (3.5 m). The gradient will relax later today as the high pressure moves farther east, allowing gales to end. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone near 09N23W, then continues to 02N22W. The ITCZ continues from 02N22W to 00N32W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is evident from 00N to 02N between 29W and 32W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A nearly stationary front resides along the northern Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to Deep South Texas. South of this boundary, a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 26N92W is dominating the weather over the basin. A generally light, anticyclonic flow is established over the basin, except for gentle NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are 3 ft or less. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Fri, bringing light to gentle SE winds. Southerly winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds Fri night ahead of a cold front that will moves cross the west and central waters Sat night and Sun. Strong winds and rough seas are possible in the northern Gulf with this frontal system. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning. A surface trough that extends along 68W through the Mona Passage is leading to scattered moderate convection within 120 nm south of Puerto Rico. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail, with moderate to fresh trades across most of the basin, with the except of the NW, where gentle to moderate NE to E winds are ongoing. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the central and eastern basin, 5 to 9 ft in the SW, and 3 to 5 ft in the NW. For the forecast, gale-force winds will end early this morning offshore Colombia, but will pulse to near gale-force again tonight due to the pressure gradient between the Colombia/Panamanian low and high pressure centered N of the region. Winds will continue to pulse to strong nightly thereafter. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will prevail through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Large NW swell over the central Atlantic continues to decay this morning and seas have now fallen below 12 ft. Still, the long- period-swell is leading to widespread rough seas of 8-11 ft for all waters E of 60W. Across the same area, S of 25N, moderate to fresh trades dominate. A dissipating cold stationary front from 31N31W to 25N45W separates two high pressure centers that are providing waters N of 25N with mainly gentle winds. Waters W of 60W and S of 25N are being dominated by ridging associated with the western high pressure, centered near 30N50W with 1022 mb. This is inducing gentle winds above moderate seas. N of 25N, SW winds have increased to strong ahead of a cold front that is sagging southward to just N of the area. Already rough seas in this area of strong winds continue to build. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will enter NW waters this morning. Ahead of the front, strong SW to W winds will prevail N of 28N, along with rough to very rough seas. These hazardous conditions will spread east through tonight, then diminish Fri as the front weakens. By Fri night the cold front will extend from near 31N55W to the SE Bahamas, and the boundary will sag SE and out of the area Sat night. On Sun, S winds will increase to strong offshore Florida, in advance of another cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast Mon. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################