--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-22 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC220007_C_KWBC_20260922000804_4522426-4264-TWDAT.txt ****0000006643**** AXNT20 KNHC 220007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next several days. All of these factors are expected to lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America to support heavy rainfall from September 22nd through the 25th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across portions of Costa Rica and Panama, as well as across southern Guatemala, far western Honduras, and far northern El Salvador. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 31W/32W from No significant convection is noted with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 21N46W to 06N49W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 300 nm either side of the wave from 06N to 11N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W southwestward to 10N21W and to near 07N35W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N35W to 07N44W and to near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N and east of 25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 20W-24W, and south of the trough from 06N to 09N between 14W-22W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A very weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper- level low centered over northern Florida is interacting with a pair of surface troughs in the eastern Gulf to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 23N and E of 90W. Another surface trough extending into the Gulf from NE Mexico is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the W Gulf as well. For the forecast, a very weak pressure gradient will force only gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. A vigorous upper-level low will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next two days. Looking ahead, a cold front should move across the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri accompanied by little to no increase in the winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean. The low is interacting with an upper-level trough that is over the Gulf of America and northwestern Caribbean. This is resulting in numerous moderate to strong convection across the Caribbean over the central portion and the eastern portion of the western Caribbean between 75W and 84W. This activity extends northward to across Cuba and further north to the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is along and just inland the coast of Honduras and over the northeast part of Nicaragua. Similar activity is south of 13N west of about 80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 84W. Outside of convection, a weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas remain east of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area to the Colombian Low is forcing only moderate to fresh with locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low is forcing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the next two days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For awareness, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 33.1N 32.2W at 21/2100 UTC, or roughly about 390 nm southwest of the Azores, moving south-southwest at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Please visit hurricanes.gov for more info on Tropical Storm Fay. A broad upper-level trough extends from the eastern Gulf of America into the northwest Caribbean. Upper-level divergence east of the trough is supporting clusters of moderate convection north of 20N and west of 67W. Farther east in the central Atlantic, an upper-level low near 26N49W moving westward and surface trough that extends from near 32N41W to 25N50W and to near 21N56W are interacting with the central Atlantic tropical, with the end result being scattered moderate convection over the waters from 20N to 31N between 36W and 45W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the southern portion of the surface trough. Outside of convection, a rather weak pressure gradient across much of the Atlantic supports mostly gentle to moderate trades. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are occurring with these trades. For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure over the ITCZ will only allow for gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through Thu. A vigorous upper-level low will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for at least the next couple of days. Looking ahead, a cold front will emerge from the southeastern United States coast late Wed night, and reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas Sat morning. Fresh to strong north winds along with building seas will follow the front on Thu and Fri, before diminishing on Sat. . Fresh N winds and increasing seas will follow the front. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC220013_C_KWBC_20260922001404_4522426-4265-TWDAT.txt ****0000006690**** AXNT20 KNHC 220013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next several days. All of these factors are expected to lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America to support heavy rainfall from September 22nd through the 25th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across portions of Costa Rica and Panama, as well as across southern Guatemala, far western Honduras, and far northern El Salvador. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 31W/32W from 05N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 21N46W to 06N49W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 300 nm either side of the wave from 06N to 11N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W southwestward to 10N21W and to near 07N35W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N35W to 07N44W and to near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N and east of 25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 20W-24W, and south of the trough from 06N to 09N between 14W-22W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A very weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper- level low centered over northern Florida is interacting with a pair of surface troughs in the eastern Gulf to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 23N and E of 90W. Another surface trough extending into the Gulf from NE Mexico is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the W Gulf as well. For the forecast, a very weak pressure gradient will force only gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. A vigorous upper-level low will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next two days. Looking ahead, a cold front should move across the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri accompanied by little to no increase in the winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean. The low is interacting with an upper-level trough that is over the Gulf of America and northwestern Caribbean. This is resulting in numerous moderate to strong convection across the Caribbean over the central portion and the eastern portion of the western Caribbean between 75W and 84W. This activity extends northward to across Cuba and further north to the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is along and just inland the coast of Honduras and over the northeast part of Nicaragua. Similar activity is south of 13N west of about 80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 84W. Outside of convection, a weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas remain east of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area to the Colombian Low is forcing only moderate to fresh with locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low is forcing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the next two days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For awareness, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 33.1N 32.2W at 21/2100 UTC, or roughly about 390 nm southwest of the Azores, moving south-southwest at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Please visit hurricanes.gov for more info on Tropical Storm Fay. A broad upper-level trough extends from the eastern Gulf of America into the northwest Caribbean. Upper-level divergence east of the trough is supporting clusters of moderate convection north of 20N and west of 67W. Farther east in the central Atlantic, an upper-level low near 26N49W moving westward and surface trough that extends from near 32N41W to 25N50W and to near 21N56W are interacting with the central Atlantic tropical, with the end result being scattered moderate convection over the waters from 20N to 31N between 36W and 45W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the southern portion of the surface trough. Outside of convection, a rather weak pressure gradient across much of the Atlantic supports mostly gentle to moderate trades. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are occurring with these trades. For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure over the ITCZ will only allow for gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through Thu. A vigorous upper-level low will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for at least the next couple of days. Looking ahead, a cold front will emerge from the southeastern United States coast late Wed night, and reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas Sat morning. Fresh to strong north winds along with building seas will follow the front on Thu and Fri, before diminishing on Sat. . Fresh N winds and increasing seas will follow the front. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC220015_C_KWBC_20260922001604_4522426-4266-TWDAT.txt ****0000006720**** AXNT20 KNHC 220015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next several days. All of these factors are expected to lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America to support heavy rainfall from September 22nd through the 25th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across portions of Costa Rica and Panama, as well as across southern Guatemala, far western Honduras, and far northern El Salvador. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 31W/32W from 05N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 21N46W to 06N49W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 300 nm either side of the wave from 06N to 11N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W southwestward to 10N21W and to near 07N35W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N35W to 07N44W and to near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N and east of 25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 20W-24W, and south of the trough from 06N to 09N between 14W-22W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A very weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper- level low centered over northern Florida is interacting with a pair of surface troughs in the eastern Gulf to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 23N and E of 90W. Another surface trough extending into the Gulf from northeastern Mexico is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the western Gulf as well. For the forecast, a very weak pressure gradient will force only gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. A vigorous upper-level low will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next two days. Looking ahead, a cold front should move across the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri accompanied by little to no increase in the winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far southwestern Caribbean. The low is interacting with an upper-level trough that is over the Gulf of America and northwestern Caribbean. This is resulting in numerous moderate to strong convection across the Caribbean over the central portion and the eastern portion of the western Caribbean between 75W and 84W. This activity extends northward to across Cuba and further north to the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is along and just inland the coast of Honduras and over the northeast part of Nicaragua. Similar activity is south of 13N west of about 80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 84W. Outside of convection, a weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas remain east of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area to the Colombian Low is forcing only moderate to fresh with locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low is forcing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the next two days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For awareness, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 33.1N 32.2W at 21/2100 UTC, or roughly about 390 nm southwest of the Azores, moving south-southwest at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Please visit hurricanes.gov for more info on Tropical Storm Fay. A broad upper-level trough extends from the eastern Gulf of America into the northwest Caribbean. Upper-level divergence east of the trough is supporting clusters of moderate convection north of 20N and west of 67W. Farther east in the central Atlantic, an upper-level low near 26N49W moving westward and surface trough that extends from near 32N41W to 25N50W and to near 21N56W are interacting with the central Atlantic tropical, with the end result being scattered moderate convection over the waters from 20N to 31N between 36W and 45W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the southern portion of the surface trough. Outside of convection, a rather weak pressure gradient across much of the Atlantic supports mostly gentle to moderate trades. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are occurring with these trades. For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure over the ITCZ will only allow for gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through Thu. A vigorous upper-level low will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for at least the next couple of days. Looking ahead, a cold front will emerge from the southeastern United States coast late Wed night, and reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas Sat morning. Fresh to strong north winds along with building seas will follow the front on Thu and Fri, before diminishing on Sat. . Fresh N winds and increasing seas will follow the front. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC220027_C_KWBC_20260922002813_31523192-4298-TWDAT.txt ****0000006653**** AXNT20 KNHC 220027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next several days. All of these factors are expected to lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America to support heavy rainfall from September 22nd through the 25th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across portions of Costa Rica and Panama, as well as across southern Guatemala, far western Honduras, and far northern El Salvador. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 31W/32W from 05N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 21N46W to 06N49W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 300 nm either side of the wave from 06N to 11N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W southwestward to 10N21W and to near 07N35W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N35W to 07N44W and to near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N and east of 25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 20W-24W, and south of the trough from 06N to 09N between 14W-22W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A very weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper- level low centered over northern Florida is interacting with a pair of surface troughs in the eastern Gulf to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 23N and E of 90W. Another surface trough extending into the Gulf from northeastern Mexico is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the western Gulf as well. For the forecast, a very weak pressure gradient will force only gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. A vigorous upper-level low will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next two days. Looking ahead, a cold front should move across the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri accompanied by little to no increase in the winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far southwestern Caribbean. The low is interacting with an upper-level trough that is over the Gulf of America and northwestern Caribbean. This is resulting in numerous moderate to strong convection across the Caribbean over the central portion and the eastern portion of the western Caribbean between 75W and 84W. This activity extends northward to across Cuba and further north to the Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is along and just inland the coast of Honduras and over the northeast part of Nicaragua. Similar activity is south of 13N west of about 80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 84W. Outside of convection, a weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas remain east of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area to the Colombian Low is forcing only moderate to fresh with locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low is forcing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the next two days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For awareness, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 33.1N 32.2W at 21/2100 UTC, or roughly about 390 nm southwest of the Azores, moving south-southwest at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Please visit hurricanes.gov for more info on Tropical Storm Fay. A broad upper-level trough extends from the eastern Gulf of America into the northwest Caribbean. Upper-level divergence east of the trough is supporting clusters of moderate convection north of 20N and west of 67W. Farther east in the central Atlantic, an upper-level low near 26N49W moving westward and a surface trough that extends from near 32N41W to 25N50W and to near 21N56W are interacting with the central Atlantic tropical, with the end result being scattered moderate convection over the waters from 20N to 31N between 36W and 45W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the southern portion of the surface trough. Outside of convection, a rather weak pressure gradient across much of the Atlantic supports mostly gentle to moderate trades. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are occurring with these trades. For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure over the ITCZ will only allow for gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through Thu. A vigorous upper-level low will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for at least the next couple of days. Looking ahead, a cold front will emerge from the southeastern United States coast late Wed night, and reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning, and from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas Sat morning. Fresh to strong north winds along with building seas will follow the front on Thu and Fri, before diminishing on Sat. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC220225_C_KWBC_20260922022613_31523192-4302-TWDAT.txt ****0000006736**** AXNT20 KNHC 220225 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A mid to upper- level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next several days. All of these factors are expected to lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the Caribbean to support heavy rainfall from September 22nd through the 25th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across portions of Costa Rica and Panama, as well as across southern Guatemala, far western Honduras, and far northern El Salvador. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing over western Jamaica and into central and eastern Cuba. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 32W/33W from 05N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 22N46W to 07N50W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active on the northern end of this tropical wave from 22N to 23N between 44W and 47W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 13N17W southwestward to 11N25W. Segments of the ITCZ axis extend from 11N25W to 10N30W, from 10N33W to 08N48W, and from 07N51W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 20W and 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A very weak pressure gradient, anchored by 1013 mb high pressure off Panama City, Florida, prevails across the area generating light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper- level trough over the eastern Gulf is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Florida Straits, along an associated surface trough. A few showers and thunderstorms over the southwest Gulf under divergent flow aloft. For the forecast, a very weak pressure gradient will force gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. A vigorous upper- level low will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next two days. A cold front should dip into the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri, accompanied with little to no increase in the winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... As described above in the Special Features section, large areas of showers and thunderstorms continue to move northward across Jamaica and into western Cuba. This activity is due to abundant tropical moisture and divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough extending from eastern Gulf to the Yucatan Channel. Isolated pockets of showers and thunderstorms are noted elsewhere across the western Caribbean. Outside of convection, a weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas remain east of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area to the Colombian Low is forcing only moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low is forcing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the next two days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For awareness, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 33.1N 32.2W at 21/2100 UTC or 390 nm SW of the Azores, moving SSW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Please visit hurricanes.gov for more info on Tropical Storm Fay. A broad upper-level trough extends from the eastern Gulf with a smaller lobe over Georgia and northeast Florida. Divergent flow aloft east of the trough and ample deep layer moisture are supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas and between the Bahamas and Bermuda west of 65W. Dry, subsident conditions prevail between 50W and 65W, except for a small area of thunderstorms northeast of Barbados near 16N56W, along a persistent surface trough. Another upper low is center farther east near 26N49W, supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms near from 22N to 23N between 44W and 47W on the northern end of a tropical wave. Mostly dry conditions are noted elsewhere. Outside of convection, a rather weak pressure gradient across much of the Atlantic supports mostly gentle to moderate trades. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are occurring with these trades. For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda- Azores High and lower pressure over the ITCZ is promoting gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through Wed night. A vigorous upper-level low will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for at least the next couple of days. A cold front will emerge from the SE United States coast late Wed night and extend from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning and from 31N69W to the central Bahamas Sat morning. Fresh to strong N winds and increasing seas will follow the front on Thu and Fri, before diminishing on Sat. Meanwhile, farther to the northeast, Fay will weaken to a tropical depression near 31.6N 34.1W Tue morning, then become a remnant low and move to 30.7N 36.0W by Tue evening. Winds and seas near the remnant low will diminish as it moves to 30.1N 37.8W Wed morning, 29.7N 39.6W Wed evening, 29.5N 41.2W Thu morning, and 29.5N 42.5W Thu evening. The remnant low of Fay will change little in intensity as it moves to 29.5N 44.3W by late Fri. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC220841_C_KWBC_20260922084209_4522426-4303-TWDAT.txt ****0000006323**** AXNT20 KNHC 220841 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A mid to upper- level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next several days. All of these factors are expected to lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the Caribbean to support heavy rainfall from September 22nd through the 25th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across portions of Costa Rica and Panama, as well as across southern Guatemala, far western Honduras, and far northern El Salvador. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing over western Jamaica and into central and eastern Cuba. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 33W/34w from 05N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 21N47W to 07N51W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active on the northern end of this tropical wave from 19N to 22N between 45W and 47W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 13N16W southwestward to 11N25W. Segments of the ITCZ axis extend from 11N25W to 10N33W, from 10N35W to 07N49W, and from 07N51W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 18W and 23W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A very weak pressure gradient, anchored by 1015 mb high pressure over south-central Louisiana, prevails across the area generating light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper- level trough over the eastern Gulf is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Florida Straits. A few showers and thunderstorms the coast of Louisiana. For the forecast, a very weak pressure gradient will force gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. A vigorous upper- level low will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next two days. A cold front should dip into the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri, accompanied with little to no increase in the winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... As described above in the Special Features section, large areas of showers and thunderstorms continue to move north of Jamaica and into western and central Cuba. This activity is due to abundant tropical moisture and divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough extending from eastern Gulf to the Yucatan Channel. Isolated pockets of showers and thunderstorms are noted elsewhere across the western Caribbean. Outside of convection, a weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas remain east of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area to the Colombian Low will continue forcing moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low is forcing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the next two days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For awareness, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 31.8N 33.7W at 22/0900 UTC, moving SW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Please visit hurricanes.gov for more info on Tropical Storm Fay. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active across the Bahamas, off northeast Florida, and between the Bahamas and Bermuda, west of 70W. This activity is due to ample deep layer moisture and upper level divergence southeast of an upper trough over the Gulf. Dry, subsident conditions prevail between 50W and 65W, except for a small area of thunderstorms northeast of Barbados near 15N58W, along a persistent surface trough. Another upper low is center farther east near 26N50W, supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms near from 19N to 22N between 45W and 47W on the northern end of a tropical wave. Mostly dry conditions are noted elsewhere. Outside of convection, a rather weak pressure gradient across much of the Atlantic supports mostly gentle to moderate trades. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are occurring with these trades. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area to the Colombian Low will continue forcing moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low is forcing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the next two days. Meanwhile, farther to the northeast, Fay will weaken to a remnant low near 31.2N 35.0W this afternoon, then move to 30.5N 36.9W Wed morning, and 29.9N 38.9W Wed afternoon. Winds and seas will continue to diminish as the weakening remnant low moves to 29.7N 40.7W Thu morning, 29.8N 42.2W Thu afternoon, and 29.9N 43.4W Fri morning. The low pressure will will change little in intensity as it moves to 30.1N 45.3W early Sat. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC221714_C_KWBC_20260922171513_4522426-4341-TWDAT.txt ****0000005714**** AXNT20 KNHC 221714 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in Central America, Jamaica, and Cuba: A middle to upper-level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present. In addition, a Central American Gyre looks to form over the next several days. All of these factors will lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the Caribbean, supporting heavy rainfall today through the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme SE Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, heavy rainfall is ongoing over western Jamaica and into western Cuba as numerous moderate to strong convection is seen in the NW Caribbean N of 14N and W of 78W. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 33W/34W from 06N to 19N, moving westward at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 21N48W to 07N54W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near the southern end of this tropical wave from 07N to 11N between 54W and 58W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near 12N16W west-southwestward to 10N40W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 10N40W to 08N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N and E of 21W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A very weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper- level trough over the eastern Gulf is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Florida Straits and the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. An upper- level trough will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next two days. A cold front is forecast to move into the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri, with little to no increase in the winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information on convection in the NW Caribbean. Outside of convection, a weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate to fresh trades along with 3-6 ft seas remain east of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail west of 80W. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. An upper- level trough will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the next two days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For awareness, Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 31.1N 34.6W at 22/1500 UTC or 560 nm SW of the Azores, moving SW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active across the Bahamas, off the coast of Florida, and between the Bahamas and Bermuda, west of 65W. This activity is due to ample deep layer moisture and upper level divergence southeast of an upper trough over the Gulf. Another upper low is centered farther east near 25N50W, interacting with several surface troughs in the central Atlantic to support widely scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 20N between 40W and 60W. Another surface trough is analyzed E of the Lesser Antilles, with scattered moderate convection along the trough axis. Outside of convection, a rather weak pressure gradient across much of the Atlantic supports mostly gentle to moderate trades. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are occurring with these trades. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through Wed night. An upper- level trough will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for the next couple of days. A cold front will move off the SE United States coast late Wed night and extend from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas Fri morning and from 31N69W to the central Bahamas Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds and increasing seas will follow the front on Thu and Fri, before decreasing on Sat. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################