--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC150431_C_KWBC_20260815043244_31523192-816-TWDAT.txt ****0000005728**** AXNT20 KNHC 150431 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: the pressure gradient has tighten between the surface ridging over the W Atlantic and the Colombian Low. This is accelerating winds in the south-central Caribbean, reaching gale-force off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela through tomorrow morning, then again on Sat night through Sun morning. Very rough seas to near 15 ft will build near and downwind of these winds. Please see the latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W from 05N to 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave environment. A central Atlantic tropical wave axis lies along 37W, from 05N to 20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted W of the wave to 42W. While environmental conditions are conducive for some development over the next few days, the system is expected to encounter strong upper-level winds next week, decreasing its chances for development. There is a medium chance for tropical development of this system in the next 7 days. Another central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 58W from 06N to 20N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave environment. The axis of a Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and extends southwestward to 08N58W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1020 mb high is centered over the northern Gulf, near 28N89W, leading toward gentle to moderate winds prevailing across the forecast waters. Seas are 1-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 NM of a surface trough extending from 24N90W to 28N82W. For the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the north-central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening some by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin. Pulses of fresh winds will be occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night, as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. By midweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds over the NW and west-central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between the high pressure and lower pressures over north-central Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central basin tonight. Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate seas are occurring over the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remaining waters with seas 3-6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 16N west of 81W in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds over most of the east and central Caribbean will prevail through this weekend. Peak winds to minimal gale force are expected offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Sat night. A tropical wave, with axis along 58W, Invest AL92, will impact the Leeward Islands tonight and Sat. Even though development is highly unlikely, strong gusty winds, rough seas and areas of heavy rain are possible across portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight and on Saturday. These weather conditions are forecast to shift westward toward the central and SW Caribbean, including the Greater Antilles and the Windward Passage from Sat night through Mon. Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high at 26N63W. Winds associated with a tropical wave, Invest AL92, are fresh to strong from 10N-19N between 51W-63W with seas 8-12 ft. Fresh to strong trades are occurring just north of Hispaniola with seas 5-7 ft. Along the coast of Western Sahara and through the Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh to strong with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined with the passage of two tropical waves through the Caribbean Sea will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night. Elsewhere, winds are expected to remain light to moderate for the next few days. A weak cold front will slowly push across the northern forecast border east of 70W on Sun, causing a wind shift to the NW and then N but with little change in wind speeds on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will stall late on Monday before dissipating by midweek. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC151100_C_KWBC_20260815110051_4522426-678-TWDAT.txt ****0000005535**** AXNT20 KNHC 151100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Aug 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains tighten between surface ridging over the W Atlantic and the Colombian Low. This is accelerating winds in the south-central Caribbean, supporting gale-force NE to E winds off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela this morning. Expect gale-force winds again tonight through early Sun morning along with rough to very rough seas to near 15 ft near and downwind of these winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 23W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 14N between 22W and 32W. A tropical wave extends from 04N to 20N with axis near 39W, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 38W and 48W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean south of 20N with axis near 62W, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 08N to 17N between 56W and 66W. A tropical wave is in the far W Caribbean with axis near 83W, moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and extends southwestward to 09N48W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1021 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf, supporting gentle to moderate winds across the forecast waters. Seas are 1-4 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted offshore Veracruz associated with a surface trough. For the forecast, a center of high pressure will remain over the north-central Gulf this weekend, then moves SE while weakening some by Mon. This pattern will produce mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night, as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. Looking ahead, by midweek next week winds may increase to fresh speeds over the NW and west- central Gulf as the pressure gradient tightens between the high pressure and lower pressures over north- central Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central basin. See the Tropical Waves section for more info on winds and convection. Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate seas are occurring over the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remaining waters with seas 3-6 ft. For the forecast, the tropical wave over the far western Caribbean combined with the Bermuda-Azores High located north of the region will continue to support fresh to near gale-force winds over most of the east and central Caribbean this weekend. Peak winds to minimal gale-force are expected offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela again tonight. A second and stronger tropical wave, with axis near 62W, Invest AL92 , will continue to impact the Leeward Islands today. Even though development is highly unlikely, strong gusty winds, rough seas and areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of the Lesser Antilles today. These weather conditions are forecast to shift westward toward the central and SW Caribbean, including the Greater Antilles and the Windward Passage from tonight through Mon. Afterwards, the tropical wave may weaken, as it moves toward the W Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high SE of Bermuda. Along the coast of Western Sahara and through the Canary Islands, NE winds are fresh with seas 6-7 ft. Elsewhere the trades are moderate or weaker with seas 3-6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined with the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N through Sun night with near gale-force NE winds likely across the approaches and in the Windward Passage late this afternoon through early Sun morning. Looking ahead, a cold front will slowly push across the northern forecast border east of 70W late on Sun, causing a wind shift to the NW and then N with fresh to locally strong wind speeds ahead of the front on Sun and Mon north of 28N. The front will stall on Monday before dissipating Tue. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC152255_C_KWBC_20260815225558_4522426-717-TWDAT.txt ****0000008449**** AXNT20 KNHC 152255 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains tighten between surface ridging over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America. This will again favor increasing winds in the south-central Caribbean, supporting gale- force northeast to east winds off Colombia this evening and into early on Sun morning. Expect rough to very rough seas to near 15 ft near and downwind of these winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NWS Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFNT3.shtml for further details. Heavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two tropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next several days. The wave will interact with enhanced divergence aloft and an active monsoon trough. The first tropical wave is located over eastern Honduras and western Nicaragua, or near 86W. As this wave continues westward, expect heavy precipitation to continue in Costa Rica, the Darien region and into Choc-Colombia on into Sun. On Sun, the second tropical wave will enter the western Caribbean and strengthen the cyclonic rotation over Panama and Colombia that will favor an increase in available moisture into Colombia and moist easterly flow into the eastern portion of Costa Rica. The heaviest precipitation is expected in Costa Rica through the rest of today and into early on Sun, while the heaviest precipitation is expected in southwest Panama, the Darien Region, and Choc-Colombia Sun into Monday. There is some uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall could reach, particularly due to how far south the available moisture and the westerly flow enters the region. Please refer to the WPC International Desk and local weather services for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28W from 05N to 21N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave to near 33W from 09N to 11W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W from 04N to 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are west of the wave to near 47W and from 09N to 15N. An eastern Caribbean strong tropical wave is along 66W/67W south of 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. An area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 14N to 18N between 64W and 70W. A far western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W south of 22N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is increasing over the southwestern portion of basin in the wake of the wave, where the eastern segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough is present. The convection is of the numerous moderate to isolated strong type confined to south of 13N from 80W westward to over most of Costa Rica and Panamas as well as southern Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and extends southwestward to 15N21W, and to 12N27W to 13N37W and southwestward to 08N47W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N53W and to near 09N60W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. In addition, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is just inland the coast of Africa from 07N to 15N. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1023 mb high is centered over the north-central Gulf near 29N92W. Its related gradient is generally supporting gentle to moderate winds across the forecast waters. Seas over the basin are 2 to 4 ft. A trough extends from near 22N94W to 18N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen west of the trough to 97W from 20N to 23N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over some sections of the Gulf from 22N to 26N east of 96W. A westward mid to upper-level disturbance is helping to sustain this activity. For the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the north-central Gulf through Mon, then move toward the southeastern part of the Gulf by Tue while weakening some. This pattern will continue to support mostly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night, as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the southwestern Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning that is in effect for waters offshore Colombia. Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas are over most of the Caribbean south of about 18N. Moderate to locally fresh trades continue over the rest of the waters along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, the combination between high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong winds over most of the east and central Caribbean this weekend. Peak winds to minimal gale-force are expected offshore Colombia tonight. The tropical wave over the western Caribbean near 86W will continue across some sections of Central America tonight, moving west into the Pacific on Sun. A strong eastern caribbean tropical wave, with its axis along 66W/67W will continue to impact the eastern Caribbean through Sun, with numerous showers and thunderstorms, some heavy with strong gusty winds. These weather conditions are forecast to shift westward to the western Caribbean Sun through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure, anchored by a 1024 mb high south-southwest of Bermuda near 26N69W continues across the basin. Latest satellite Ascat scatterometer data indicates fresh northeast winds along the coast of western Sahara and through the Canary Islands. Seas are around 6 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, latest satellite scatterometer satellite data reveals moderate or weaker trades. Seas are about 4 to 6 ft with these trades. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 29N to 30N between 66W and 71W, and from 30N to 31N between 61W and 66W. The base of a broad upper-level trough translating eastward is north of 31N between 50W and 70W, with impulses riding along it from west to east. This activity is also south of a stationary front that is well north of the area. Of note: An extensive plume of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is spreading westward across most of the basin south of about 28N and just east of South Florida and the Keys as noted in the GOES- derived Total Precipitable Water (TPW) product. From climatology, the SAL usually becomes evident around the middle of June, peaking from late June to mid-August and begins to rapidly diminish after mid-August. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined with the passage of two tropical through the Caribbean Sea will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including the approaches and in the Windward Passage from late this afternoon through Sun night. Looking ahead, a cold front will slowly push across the northern forecast border east of 70W late on Sun, and move across the northern forecast waters on Mon while dissipating into a trough by Tue. Fresh to strong southwest to west winds are expected ahead of the front and east of about 70W on Sun and Sun night. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################