--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC110447_C_KWBC_20260711044718_9109880-7984-TWDAT.txt ****0000004535**** AXNT20 KNHC 110447 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0444 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela into early next week. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale- force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak to around 14 ft off Colombia Sat night. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 57.5W, south of 17N. It is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 09N to 14N between 54W and 62W. The Caribbean tropical wave has moved to the eastern Pacific. More information about this wave can be found in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP). ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N17W and continues southwestward to 08N32W. The ITCZ continues from 08N32W to 06N52.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N between 20W and 32W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Numerous scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the southeastern Gulf. A relatively weak pressure gradient over the area is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds, along with slight seas, across the region. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into next week, supporting mainly gentle SE winds. Fresh E winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low is supporting strong winds over the central Caribbean, reaching gale force off Colombia according to the latest ASCAT. Seas within these winds peak to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will support strong to near gale- force easterly trades and rough seas over the central Caribbean through next week, including the Windward Passage. Winds will pulse to gale-force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Sat night. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong each evening through early next week. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean into the next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Numerous moderate convection is depicted from north of Cuba to 28N and west of 78W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted north of 28N between 52.5W and 60W. Farther east, a weakening cold front enters the waters near 31N15W and extends to 27N32WW. Gentle to moderate N winds are N of the frontal boundary. High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1022 mb high near 25N54.5W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere, except for pulsing strong winds offshore Hispaniola. Seas are moderate or less across the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the period, supporting moderate to fresh trades S of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. An upper level low pressure will move W from the Bahamas and Florida through the weekend, bringing thunderstorms with locally strong winds and frequent lightning. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC111029_C_KWBC_20260711103020_9109880-8001-TWDAT.txt ****0000005374**** AXNT20 KNHC 111029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1025 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela into early next week. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale-force off the coast of Colombia tonight. Rough to very rough seas are forecast with these winds. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 14N and between 53W and 65W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N34W to 06N53W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 11N and between 22W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The storm activity over the SE Gulf has diminished in the past couple of hours, however, some showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the northern and NW Gulf. The subtropical ridge weakly extends into the Gulf waters supporting moderate or lighter winds and seas of 2-4 ft. For the forecast, an upper level low pressure currently over the NW Bahamas will progress westward over the next several days, supporting scattered moderate to strong convection. Additionally, a frontal boundary will approach the northern Gulf coast enhancing the storm activity across the area this weekend and into early next week. Mariners should expect gusty winds, frequent lightning and higher seas near the strongest storms. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate into next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate SE winds. However, fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia. Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean, especially west of 82W. Similar convection is noted in the SW Caribbean. Meanwhile, a tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is bringing some showers to the SE Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low is supporting strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough to very rough seas over the central Caribbean and Windward Passage, reaching gale force off Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the islands and lower environmental pressures over northern South America combine to support strong to near gale-force easterly trades and rough seas over the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. This pattern will persist into next week. Winds will pulse to gale- force off Colombia this morning and tonight. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong each evening through the forecast period. Finally, moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean into next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low pressure and abundant tropical moisture combine to produce numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across the NW Bahamas and nearby waters. Farther east, divergence aloft and a frontal boundary just north of our area support scattered showers north of 26N and between 53W and 61W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds and locally rough seas off Haiti and eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas. The strongest winds and seas are at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-9 ft are noted south of 23N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, an upper level low pressure currently over the NW Bahamas will move westward through the weekend, bringing thunderstorms with locally strong winds, frequent lightning and higher seas. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the period, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong and locally rough seas winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC111700_C_KWBC_20260711170123_9109880-8022-TWDAT.txt ****0000006994**** AXNT20 KNHC 111700 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic west- northwestward to north Florida and the NE Gulf of America, and lower pressures over northern South America, will continue to support strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds over the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, into early next week. Morning satellite scatterometer data showed winds near gale-force off the north coast of Colombia, where satellite altimeter data showed seas of 12 to 15 ft. Winds and seas have since diminished slightly across that area. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale- force off the coast of Colombia again tonight through Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft are expected with these winds. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has entered the Caribbean, along 61W-62W, south of 18N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered squalls and moderate thunderstorms are seen moving across the SE Caribbean, Windward Islands, and adjacent Atlantic waters south of 14N between between 55W and 64W. A Caribbean tropical wave has entered the Yucatan Peninsula and is now along about 88W, south of 21N and into the eastern Tropical Pacific, moving west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is south of 20N, extending from 84.5W westward across the Gulf of Honduras and adjacent waters and well inland. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N31W. The ITCZ extends from 09N32W to 06N51W to the coast of Guyana near 07.5N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N to 12N and between 15W and 27W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 31W and 57W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward across north Florida and the Florida Big Bend today. Associated southeasterly low level flow continues to transport areas of abundant low level moisture into the basin. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms extends from the SE Louisiana southward to near 26N, and area also about the Texas coastal waters. Overnight convection across the Florida Straits and SE Gulf has diminished in intensity, however scattered moderate showers persist there. The subtropical ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft across the waters east of 88W. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds generally prevail west of 88W, where seas are also 2-4 ft. For the forecast, a frontal boundary will approach the northern Gulf coast this weekend, enhancing thunderstorm activity across the area into early next week. Mariners should expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas near the strongest thunderstorms. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate into next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate SE winds. However, fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia. The pressure gradient south of the western Atlantic ridge to the north is supporting mostly strong trade winds south of 17.5N between 67W and 80W, based on morning satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 8 ft 15 ft across this area. Fresh to locally strong E-NE trade winds accompany the tropical wave entering the Caribbean this morning, and extend to the east of the wave axis and into the Tropical Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles. Squalls and thunderstorms are ahead of the tropical wave in the SE Caribbean. Seas across this area are 6-8 ft. Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture accompanying the tropical wave continues to producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean west of 84.5W. Similar convection is noted in the SW Caribbean, from western Panama to southeast Nicaragua. For the forecast, high pressure north of the islands and lower environmental pressures over northern South America combine to support strong to near gale-force easterly trades and rough seas over the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. This pattern will persist into next week. Winds will pulse to gale- force off Colombia tonight. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong each evening through the forecast period. Finally, moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean into next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A persistent upper level low pressure system over the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba is combining with abundant tropical moisture surging northwestward across the Bahamas and into south Florida to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the NW Bahamas, The Florida Straits, and nearby waters. A squall line is seen northeast of Abaco moving northeastward. Farther east, divergence aloft and a frontal trough just north of our area extending southwestward to near 27N60W support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N and between 53W and 61W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas, except for locally rough seas to 8 ft off Haiti and eastern Cuba, and across the waters east of the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, an upper level low pressure currently over the NW Bahamas will move westward through the weekend, supporting thunderstorms with locally strong winds, frequent lightning and higher seas. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the period, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong and locally rough seas winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################