--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC160513_C_KWBC_20260616051348_32440682-2988-TWDAT.txt ****0000007105**** AXNT20 KNHC 160513 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low pressure located inland near the Texas/Mexico border continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America today, and environmental conditions there are expected to be marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm later today or on Wednesday. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required later today. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages. This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers ABNT20 KNHC/TWOAT or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 11N AND between 17W and 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 09N and between 33W and 54W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 13N and between 55W and 64W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found south of 13N and between 69W and 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 07N26W. The ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 04N43W and then from 04N45W to 04N51W. Please read the TROPICAL WAVES section above for details on the convection. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the NW Gulf of America. A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms affecting NE Mexico, southern Texas and nearshore waters. The remainder of the basin is under the western extent of the subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas, west of 90W and off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, a trough with weak low pressure along it is inland across northeastern Mexico, and will move slowly N to NE during the next couple of days. Low pressure is expected to move northeastward along the Texas coast, and possibly re- emerge over the NW Gulf late Tue or Wed, at which time environmental conditions may be marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm Wed into Thu. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW Gulf Tue through Thu. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the area will sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf early Wed through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers are seen south of eastern Cuba and off western Jamaica. The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are noted off Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a broad ridge extends from the central Atlantic westward along 27N and across S Florida. The pressure gradient across the region will sustain a large area of fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central basin through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat, pulsing to near gale Wed night, Thu night and Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will become SE at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 24N and between 67W and 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 28N and west of 65W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 35W. In the far east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are present north of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure near 26N57W westward along 27N and across S Florida, and will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing some in coverage beginning Fri night. Moderate to fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 74W are occurring ahead of a surface trough. These winds will expand eastward to near 67W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front is expected to move offshore late Fri night and stall offshore northeast Florida Sat and Sat night. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC161017_C_KWBC_20260616101744_9109880-6008-TWDAT.txt ****0000007843**** AXNT20 KNHC 161017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL90): A trough of low pressure extending across coastal portions of NE Mexico, across the Texas/Mexico border and into south Texas, continues to produce a large area of strong showers and thunderstorms from NE Mexico to SW Louisiana. This system is expected to move north- northeastward during the next few days, and could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America today through Wed. Environmental conditions there are expected to be marginally conducive for the formation of a short- lived tropical storm later today or on Wed. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern and eastern Texas, southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days, which could produce widespread, life- threatening flash, urban, and river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required later today. Additional information on this system can be found in products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office or the NHC Key Messages. This area has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers ABNT20 KNHC/TWOAT or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 25W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 12N between 20W and 32W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W-47W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04.5N to 09.5N and between 40W and 54W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 13.5N between 58W and 66W. Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found south of 14N and between 74W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14.5N17W and continues southwestward to 05.5N34W. The ITCZ extends from 05.5N34W to 05.5N45W and then from 05.5N48W to 06N57W. Convection is described in the TROPICAL WAVES section. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the potential for tropical cyclone formation in the NW Gulf of America. Abundant low level moisture continues to stream northward across the western Gulf and is converging on the easter side of a trough of low pressure extending from eastern Mexico into south Texas. Favorable upper level conditions aloft continue to support numerous large clusters of strong convection across coastal sections and the near shore waters from NE Mexico to SW Louisiana. The remainder of the basin is under the western extent of the Atlantic subtropical ridge extending across south Florida and into the eastern Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas to 6 ft, west of 90W and off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the low pressure across NE Mexico and S Texas is expected to move slowly NE during the next couple of days, and along the Texas coast, and possibly re-emerge over the NW Gulf today or Wed. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for the formation of a short- lived tropical storm as this occurs. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over the NW Gulf Tue through Thu as this systems moves through the area. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the basin will sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf Tue night through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds will begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection continues early this morning across eastern Cuba, the Windward Passage and into western Haiti, while a few showers are across the Cayman Islands. The pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean, south of 17N. The strongest winds and highest seas are noted off Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will generally remain in place into this weekend. The pressure gradient across the region will sustain fresh to strong trade winds in the south- central basin through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat, pulsing to near gale-force Wed night and Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will become SE at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu night, then will diminish through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, extending from 1022 mb high pressure southeast of the Azores, southwestward into the central Atlantic and then westward along 26N and across south Florida. This pattern is supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 23N and between 65W and 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 28N and west of 67W. South of the ridge, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 35W. In the far east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present north of 18N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing slightly Fri night through Sat. Moderate to fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 67W are occurring ahead of a surface trough. These winds will expand eastward to near 65W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front is expected to move offshore early Sat and stall offshore northeast Florida to Bermuda by Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC161802_C_KWBC_20260616180256_32440682-3035-TWDAT.txt ****0000007736**** AXNT20 KNHC 161802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone One is centered near 27.1N 97.8W at 16/1800 UTC or 50 nm SSW of Corpus Christi Texas, moving NE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. The system is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph, and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next couple of days. The disturbance should move offshore the Texas coast tonight or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph with higher gusts. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm early on Wednesday. Weakening is anticipated on Thursday after the system moves back on land. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around 12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest One NHC Forecast Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N between 23W and 33W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 09N and between 45W and 57W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis. Another Caribbean tropical wave is along 80W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found south of 11N and W of 80W, likely enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough in the region. Isolated moderate convection is seen along the wave axis N of 11N to about 16N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 06N28W. The ITCZ extends from 06N28W to 04.5N46W and then from 05N50W to 06N58W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N to 08.5N between 36W and 41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Away from convection associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail across much of the Gulf W of 88W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One is near 27.0N 98.0W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving northeast at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. One will move to 27.4N 97.2W this evening, 28.2N 95.8W Wed morning, 29.6N 93.9W Wed evening, inland to 31.6N 91.7W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu evening. Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the basin will sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf tonight through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds will begin to diminish Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the Windward Passage, eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and off the coast of Jamaica. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge in the Atlantic and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail in the far SW Caribbean, in waters immediately S of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage. For the forecast, a broad ridge extends from the central Atlantic westward along 26N, across S Florida and into the eastern Gulf of America, and will generally remain in place into this weekend. The pressure gradient across the region will sustain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central basin through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat, pulsing to near gale- force Wed night and Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean will become SE at fresh to strong speeds Wed through Thu night, then will diminish through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, extending from 1023 mb high pressure southeast of the Azores, southwestward into the central Atlantic and then westward across the Florida Straits. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas south of 23N and W of 30W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas are also occurring north of 25N and west of 65W. NE winds at fresh to strong speeds are confirmed by scatterometer data across a region N of 20N and E of 20W, strongest winds occurring near the coast of Morocco. Gentle to moderate trades and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere, particularly within the subtropical ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, a broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure located near 26N60W westward across S Florida, and will change little through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing slightly Fri night through Sat. Moderate to fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 68W are occurring ahead of a surface trough. These winds will expand eastward to near 65W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front is expected to move offshore early Sat and stall offshore northeast Florida to Bermuda by Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################