--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2025-11-30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC300453_C_KWBC_20251130045407_16515500-808-TWDAT.txt ****0000005155**** AXNT20 KNHC 300453 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0453 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A broad surface trough currently analyzed along 48W is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas 8 to 10 ft from 19N to 27N between 35W and 54W. The trough will continue to advance westward into the waters north of the Leeward Islands Sun trough Tue night, and bring fresh to strong E winds across most of the waters from 16N to 30N east of 60W through Monday. Seas within these waters will build to 8 to 13 ft. Late on Monday, winds and seas will begin to diminish as the trough weakens and continues westward to 65W. This pattern is partly associated with a broad upper level trough across the central Atlantic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 09N13W and continues to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 08N54W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02.5N to 13.5N east of 15W. Similar convection is depicted along the ITCZ between 21.5W and 41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Strong high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. dominates the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures associated with the stationary front in the NW Caribbean and SW North Atlantic result in fresh to strong NE winds in the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In the western Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted west of 94.5W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the gradient between high pressure centered mid- Atlantic coast of the U.S. and a stationary front southeast of the basin is supporting fresh to strong winds in the Florida Straits and far southeast Gulf. These winds persist over the far western Gulf ahead of an approaching cold front over Texas. This front will move offshore Mon, stall Mon night into Tue, when a low pressure will form off Texas and move northeastward across the southeast U.S. into the northwest Atlantic. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into the basin, but then stall into late week as another low forms over Texas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front across the NW Caribbean extends from central Cuba to Belize. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture are supporting scattered showers over the central Caribbean, eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are occurring in the central, and eastern Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a stationary front from central Cuba to Belize is dissipating. High pressure over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin through the early part of the week. Winds and seas will diminish by mid week as the high shifts east. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic. A stationary front extends from just E of Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along the front. Strong high pressure centered over mid- Atlantic coast of the U.S. continues to force fresh to strong NE winds to the west of the front across the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Seas are 8-11 ft from 25N to 30N between 63W and 76W. Seas are 4-8 ft elsewhere in the W Atlantic. Elsewhere across the basin, aside from the SPECIAL FEATURE, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-7 ft seas, except for locally fresh winds over the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will dissipate through Sun, and high pressure north of the front will shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak front will stall off the northeast Florida coast Mon, then lift northward Mon night. Expect southerly winds and building seas north of 29N and west of 75W Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these strong southerly winds will shift eastward north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue night into Wed. This front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Wed. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough moving westward into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands Sun through Tue night. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC300937_C_KWBC_20251130093808_16515500-824-TWDAT.txt ****0000006078**** AXNT20 KNHC 300937 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Recent scatterometer and altimeter passes confirmed a large area of fresh to strong easterly winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in a long plume across the eastern and central Atlantic from roughly 20N to 28N between 15W and 50W. These winds and seas are between strong high pressure north of the area and a trough near 50W extending from 15N and 25N. The trough will continue to move to the W-NW at 20 to 25 kt and pass mainly to the north of the Leeward Islands by mid week. Winds will diminish slightly through the period, but given the long fetch and duration of the winds, this pattern will support seas building to 12 to 13 ft today and Mon over an area from 22N to 28N between 45W and 55W. Winds and seas will diminish after late Tue, but 8 to 10 ft will persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W through the latter part of the week. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 11N15W and continues to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 04N30W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 09N between 12W and 17W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Fresh SE winds are evident across various buoys and platforms over the far northwest Gulf, ahead of approaching cold front moving into the Texas coastal plains. Buoy observations also show seas to 7 ft off the Texas coast. Fresh to locally strong E winds also linger over the far southeast Gulf and Straits of Florida, south of strong high pressure over the Carolinas. A plume of 5 to 7 ft seas extends from the Straits of Florida into the southeast Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near a surface trough over the southeast Gulf just north of the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the winds and seas over the southeast Gulf will diminish through this morning, as the high pressure north of the area shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving into the eastern U.S. This front will enter the northwest Gulf later this morning, then stall Mon night into Tue, when a low pressure will form off Texas and move northeastward across the southeast U.S. into the northwest Atlantic. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into the basin, but then stall over the central Gulf through mid- week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead, expect fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf as the low pressure moves northeastward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active between Hispaniola and Panama, south of 15N, ahead of a broad upper trough reaching from the Windward Passage to southern Nicaragua. Recent scatterometer satellite passes indicated moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the eastern Caribbean east of 80W. This is south of strong high pressure north of the area over the western Atlantic. Concurrent altimeter satellite passes indicated combined seas of 4 to 6 ft over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin through the early part of the week. Winds and seas will diminish by mid week as the high shifts east. Looking ahead, expect fresh NE winds again over the north-central Caribbean and off Colombia by late Thu as high pressure builds over the eastern U.S. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic. A stationary front from 31N60W to the northern Bahamas is followed by fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring along the frontal boundary and over the southern Bahamas ahead of a broad upper trough along roughly 75W. Farther east, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are ongoing from 15N to 22N between 40W and 50W. This activity is associated with an upper low centered near 20N45W, which is also supporting the surface trough along 50W described in the Special Features section above. Aside from the large area of strong winds and rough seas also described in the Special Features section, mostly moderate to fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will dissipate through today, and high pressure north of the front will shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak front will stall off the northeast Florida coast Mon, then lift northward Mon night. Expect southerly winds and building seas north of 29N and west of 75W late Mon and Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these strong southerly winds will shift eastward Tue night into Wed, north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue night. This front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Wed, and from 31N60W to eastern Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough moving westward into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands Sun through Tue night. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC301649_C_KWBC_20251130165010_16515500-858-TWDAT.txt ****0000005265**** AXNT20 KNHC 301649 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Recent scatterometer and altimeter passes confirmed a large area of fresh to strong easterly winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in a long plume across the eastern and central Atlantic from roughly 20N to 28N between 15W and 50W. These winds and seas are between strong high pressure north of the area and a trough near 51W extending from 15N and 25N. Scatterometer data also indicated locally near-gale force winds near the trough. The trough will continue to move to the W-NW at 20 to 25 kt and pass north of the Leeward Islands by mid week. Winds will diminish slightly through the period, but given the long fetch and duration of the winds, this pattern will support seas building to 12 to 13 ft today and Mon over an area from 22N to 28N between 45W and 55W. Winds and seas will diminish after late Tue, but 8-10 ft seas will persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W through the latter part of the week. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 08N13W and continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04N to 07N between 10W and 30W. GULF OF AMERICA... A new cold front has entered the NW Gulf. As of 1500 UTC, the front extends from Vermilion Bay, LA to Padre Island, TX. Fresh to strong NE winds are behind the front, with building seas of 5-7 ft. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the front. A surface trough is analyzed in the east central Gulf, from 23N to 27N along 88W. Locally fresh E winds, and seas to 6 ft, are analyzed near the trough. Scattered showers and tstorms are also near the trough. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker E winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail across the Gulf. For the forecast, the front is forecast to stall Mon night into Tue, when a low pressure will form off Texas and move northeastward across the southeast U.S. into the northwest Atlantic. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into the basin, but then stall again over the central Gulf through mid-week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead, expect fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf as the low pressure moves northeastward. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 15N between 72W and 76W, ahead of a broad upper trough reaching from the Windward Passage to southern Nicaragua. The latest satellite scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong NE winds within the Windward Passage. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, moderate or weaker trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will support moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds across most of the basin through the early part of the week. Winds and seas will diminish by mid week as the high shifts east. Looking ahead, expect fresh NE winds again over the north-central Caribbean and off Colombia by late Thu as high pressure builds over the eastern U.S. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic. A stationary front from 31N60W to 26N74W, just east of the northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N to 31N between 65W and 75W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are north of 25N between 60W and 80W. The latest satellite scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong NE winds on approach to and within the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, outside of the area described in SPECIAL FEATURES, moderate or weaker trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will dissipate later today, and high pressure north of the front will shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak front will stall off the northeast Florida coast by Mon, then lift northward Mon night. Expect southerly winds and building seas north of 29N and west of 75W late Mon and Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these strong southerly winds will shift eastward Tue night into Wed, north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue night. This front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Wed, and from 31N60W to eastern Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile, as described in SPECIAL FEATURES, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough moving westward into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands Sun through Tue night. $$ Mahoney ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################