--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC080503_C_KWBC_20260808050409_49676782-478-TWDAT.txt ****0000005183**** AXNT20 KNHC 080503 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Aug 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week. The ridge N of the region will shift southward over the weekend, increasing the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to gale-force speeds tonight and Saturday night. Rough seas will prevail in this area, building to very rough at times coinciding with the periods of gale-force winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the Cape Verde Islands, with axis along 26W from 06N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted S of 10N. A tropical wave is near 46W, and extends from 05N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 10N. A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 58W, extending from 05N to 20N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted S of 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues westward to near 11N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N49W to 09N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection prevails within 300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The Atlantic ridge extends across the Carolinas and into the north-central Gulf. A surface trough is moving westward across Florida. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 1-3 ft seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the central Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate most of the Gulf basin through late Tue. This will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters N of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure located NW of Bermuda near 33N67W and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh trades are over the E Caribbean while gentle to moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are moderate with these winds. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week, with gale-force winds occurring tonight and Saturday night in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of Colombia. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift slightly southward, and maintain near gale-force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds will pulse fresh to locally strong during the evenings and night in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the northern Bahamas and off the northeast coast of Florida, following a trough currently moving across the Florida peninsula. Broad ridging dominates the Atlantic north of 25N, supporting E to SE winds and 4-6 ft across the basin, except for fresh to strong NE winds near the Canary Islands. Saharan dust covers the Atlantic north of 15N and east of 50W. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will shift W-NW and inland through Sat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring E of the trough to 76W will shift northwestward behind the trough through Sat, then persist N of 30N through Sun. Fresh winds and moderate to rough seas N of the Bahamas and W of 76W will gradually subside by Sat morning. Otherwise, the Bermuda High will shift slightly southward through early next week. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening and night. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC081006_C_KWBC_20260808100711_49676782-493-TWDAT.txt ****0000006295**** AXNT20 KNHC 081006 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Aug 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb Bermuda High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week. Winds tonight have pulsed to minimal gale-force offshore of Colombia and inside the Gulf of Venezuela. The associated ridge N of the region will gradually shift southward to along 28N through Tue to maintain strong to near gale-force winds across the south central Caribbean. Winds will diminish to below gale-force around sunrise this morning and then increase again to gale-force tonight. Seas will build into the 12-13 ft range during the time of the gale-force winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is moving away from the Cabo Verde Islands, with axis along 28W from 06N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 08.5N TO 12.5N between 27W and 31W. An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 47W, and extends from 05N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 41W and 47W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 59W-60W, approaching the Lesser Antilles, extending from 05N to 20N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11.5N between 54W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16.5W and continues westward to near 10N44.5W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 09.5N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 12N E of 24W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1024 mb high is located just NW of Bermuda and extends a western Atlantic ridge westward along 33N and across the Carolinas. A surface trough has moved westward across Florida, and extends from the extreme SW Gulf to near Jacksonville, with the ridge drapped across it over the northeast Gulf. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 1-3 ft seas across the basin, except for moderate NE winds across the eastern Bay of Campeche. Widely scattered showers are across the coastal waters of SW Florida, and dot the waters elsewhere W of 88W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate most of the Gulf basin through late Tue. This will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters N of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure located NW of Bermuda near 33N67W and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean S of 16N and between 68W and 80W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across much of this area except 10 to 13 ft in the gale winds offshore of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are over the E Caribbean while gentle to moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are moderate with these winds. Scattered moderate convection extends from Haiti northwestward to 80W and offshore of central Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week, with gale- force winds occurring early this morning and again Saturday night offshore of Colombia. The ridge N of the region will gradually shift southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain near gale- force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse fresh to locally strong during the evenings and night in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the Atlantic waters north of the Bahamas and W of 76W, following a low level trough currently moving across the Florida peninsula and into the eastern Gulf of America. Broad ridging centered on a 1024 mb high just NW of Bemuda dominates the Atlantic north of 24N and west of 50W, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4-6 ft W of 50W. A central Atlantic cold front extends southwestward to near 33N50W and weakens the ridge across the central basin. An Azores High dominates the basin est of 40W, producing fresh to strong NE winds near the Canary Islands, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Saharan air and dust covers much of the Atlantic north of 12N and east of 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough moving across Florida will shift NW and further inland today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring E of the trough to 77W will shift northwestward behind the trough today, then persist N of 30N through Sun. Otherwise, a 1024 mb Bermuda High will shift slightly southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening and night. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC081616_C_KWBC_20260808161642_47448518-442-TWDAT.txt ****0000007526**** AXNT20 KNHC 081616 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Aug 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through next week, with gale-force winds occurring again tonight offshore of Colombia. The ridge N of the region will gradually shift southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain strong to near gale-force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Seas will build into the 12 to 13 ft range during the time of the gale-force winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands, with axis near 29W from 06N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is where the wave meets the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is behind the wave axis covering the waters from 07N to 13N between 17W and 25W. The tropical wave previously located along 47W is relocated farther E near 40W based on the tropical wave diagnostic, satellite imagery and scatterometer data. Satellite imagery show a broad cyclonic circulation near the northern end of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection is also where the wave meets the monsoon trough. A tropical wave is analyzed east of the Lesser Antilles along 59W/60W, extending from 05N to 20N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave axis. Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will be possible during the middle to latter part of next week while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal south of Dakar near 14N17W and continues westward to near 11N38W. The ITCZ extends from 11N41W to 10N54W to 11N58W. Most of the convective activity across the area is related to the tropical waves. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1024 mb high pressure located just NW of Bermuda extends a ridge across the SE of the United States into the Gulf region. A surface trough has moved westward across Florida, and now extends from northern Florida to near 25N85W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas across the basin, except for moderate NE winds across the eastern Bay of Campeche. Showers and thunderstorms continue to dot the Gulf waters, more concentrated from 23N to 27N between 87W and 94W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. For the forecast, the surface trough extending into the eastern Gulf will support scattered showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon as the trough moves inland. Similar activity is expected in the Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge will dominate most of the basin through late Tue. This will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters N of Colombia. The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure located NW of Bermuda near 33N68W and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 12 ft across much of this area. Buoy 42058 located near 14N76W is reporting seas of 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are over the E Caribbean while gentle to moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are moderate with these winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are between Cuba and Jamaica, across the Cayman Islands and regional waters, and south of western Cuba, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the pressure between a 1024 mb Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week, with gale-force winds occurring again tonight offshore of Colombia. The ridge N of the region will gradually shift southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain strong to near gale-force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to locally strong speeds during the evenings and nights in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. The Atlantic ridge looks to shift farther southward later next week, which may act to increase easterly trade winds again across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the Atlantic waters north of the Bahamas and W of 75W, following a surface trough currently located over northern Florida and the eastern Gulf of America. A broad ridge, centered on a 1024 mb high pressure located just NW of Bermuda, dominates the western Atlantic supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Hispaniola to about 22N. An Azores High of 1024 mb dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters producing fresh to strong NE winds between the Canary Islands and offshore Western Sahara, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Saharan air and dust covers much of the Atlantic north of 12N and east of 60W, and most of the east and central Caribbean based on the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Tracking Product from CIMSS. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough extending across northern Florida will shift NW and further inland today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring E of the trough to about 75W will shift northwestward today, then persist N of 30N through Sun. Otherwise, a 1024 mb Bermuda High and an attendant ridge will shift slightly southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening and night. The Atlantic ridge then looks to drop a bit farther southward later next week, which may result in stronger easterly winds. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC082147_C_KWBC_20260808214845_47448518-470-TWDAT.txt ****0000006639**** AXNT20 KNHC 082147 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Aug 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through next week, with gale-force winds occurring again tonight offshore of Colombia. The ridge N of the region will gradually shift southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain strong to near gale-force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Seas will build into the 12 to 13 ft range during the time of the gale-force winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 29W from 06N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is where the wave meets the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 12N between 27W and 33W. The tropical wave is along 41W from 07N to 19N moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N and 12N between 37W and 44W. A tropical wave is near 57W from 09N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between 55W and 60W. Looking ahead, a tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday. Some development of this system will be possible during the middle to latter part of next week while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 16N16N and continues westward to near 11N25W then on to 12N40W. The ITCZ extends from 11N42W to 10N55W. Most of the convective activity across the area is related to the tropical waves. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A trough over the eastern Gulf extends from the Florida Big Bend area to 25N85W. Another trough is over the Bay of Campeche. This weak pressure pattern is supporting mostly light breezes and 1-3 ft seas across the basin. Diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the central and west- central parts of the basin. For the forecast, the surface trough extending southwestward from the Big Bend of Florida into the eastern Gulf will support scattered showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon as the trough moves inland. Similar activity is expected in the Bay of Campeche and SW Gulf with the passage of a diurnal surface trough. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High westward across the northern Gulf, and will dominate most of the basin through late Tue. This will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters north of Colombia. The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located west of Bermuda near 32N68W and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 8 to 12 ft across much of this area. Moderate to fresh trades are over the E Caribbean while gentle to moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are moderate with these winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are between Cuba and Jamaica, across the Cayman Islands and regional waters, and south of western Cuba, including the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week, with gale-force winds occurring again tonight offshore of Colombia. The ridge N of the region will gradually shift southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain strong to near gale-force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to locally strong speeds during the evenings and nights in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. The Atlantic ridge looks to shift farther southward later next week, which may act to increase easterly trade winds again across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off northeast Florida and the northern Bahamas, related to diffluent flow aloft. A broad ridge dominates the waters north of 25N across the basin, broken only by a trough reaching from 31N45W to 25N55W. Saharan dust is evident mainly east of this trough, north of 15N. The pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N and west of 60W with 4-6 ft seas, fresh to strong NE winds and 5-7 ft seas over the Canary Islands, and mostly gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, a low level trough extending across northern Florida will shift NW and further inland today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring E of the trough to 75W will shift northwestward today, then persist N of 30N through Sun. Otherwise, a 1023 mb Bermuda High and an attendant ridge will shift slightly southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening and night. The Atlantic ridge then looks to drop a bit farther southward later next week, which may result in stronger easterly winds. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################