--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-01-26 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC260427_C_KWBC_20260126042750_25559334-1149-TWDAT.txt ****0000005842**** AXNT20 KNHC 260427 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jan 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from near Panama City, Florida southwestward to 20N95W then southward and inland across Mexico near Coatzacoalcos. Fresh to near gale- force N winds and rough to very rough seas are found behind the front. Northerly gales are occurring offshore Tampico, and are expected to begin across the waters near Veracruz by sunrise. These gale conditions are forecast to continue offshore Tampico until Mon morning and offshore Veracruz through late Mon night. The cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin tonight through Mon evening. Seas are expected to quickly build across the Gulf region through Mon reaching 16 or 17 ft. Marine conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N13W and continues southwestward to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 03N33W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 08N and west of 20W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the western and SW Gulf. A cold front extends from the western Florida panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico. The impacts behind the front are described in the Special Features section. Ahead of the front, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, outside of the Gale Warning area, the high will shift eastward beginning Thu as low pressure develops in the far western Gulf along a frontal boundary. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally dry conditions prevail across the Caribbean waters. High pressure north of the area supports fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas off northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are prevalent in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, broad high pressure over the eastern Atlantic will maintain a ridge westward into the central Atlantic supporting mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Tue, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside into early next week, with seas lingering to 8 ft through early Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras by late Tue into Wed, weakening to a shearline Thu. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of America. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tight pressure gradient supports fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas north of 28N and west of 75W. Farther east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N44W and continues southwestward to 28N58W and then as a stationary front to 31N67W. Moderate to locally fresh E winds and rough seas are found north of the boundary. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas south of 25N and between the Bahamas and Africa. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail. A band of multilayer clouds associated with very strong winds aloft persist across the tropical Atlantic, extending from NE South America all the way to W Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends across the NE zones from 28N55W to 31N67W. A broad ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure near 35N57W southwestward to South Florida and the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong S to SW winds over the NW forecast waters will continue through early Mon in advance of a strong cold front that is expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Mon morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The front will reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and to west Cuba Mon evening, from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 31N50W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue afternoon. The frontal boundary will begin to dissipate on Thu as another strong cold front moves out across the western forecast waters, reaching from near 31N59W to Hispaniola by Thu evening then stall over the eastern portion Fri S of 26N. $$ Delgado --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC260429_C_KWBC_20260126042950_25559334-1150-TWDAT.txt ****0000005897**** AXNT20 KNHC 260429 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jan 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from near Panama City, Florida southwestward to 20N95W then southward and inland across Mexico near Coatzacoalcos. Fresh to near gale- force N winds and rough to very rough seas are found behind the front. A recently scatterometer satellite pass indicate that northerly gales are occurring offshore Tampico, and are expected to begin across the waters near Veracruz by sunrise. These gale conditions are forecast to continue offshore Tampico until Mon morning and offshore Veracruz through late Mon night. The cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin tonight through Mon evening. Seas are expected to quickly build across the Gulf region through Mon reaching 16 or 17 ft. Marine conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N13W and continues southwestward to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 03N33W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 08N and west of 20W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the western and SW Gulf. A cold front extends from the western Florida panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico. The impacts behind the front are described in the Special Features section. Ahead of the front, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, outside of the Gale Warning area, the high will shift eastward beginning Thu as low pressure develops in the far western Gulf along a frontal boundary. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally dry conditions prevail across the Caribbean waters. High pressure north of the area supports fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas off northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are prevalent in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, broad high pressure over the eastern Atlantic will maintain a ridge westward into the central Atlantic supporting mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Tue, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside into early next week, with seas lingering to 8 ft through early Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras by late Tue into Wed, weakening to a shearline Thu. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of America. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tight pressure gradient supports fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas north of 28N and west of 75W. Farther east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N44W and continues southwestward to 28N58W and then as a stationary front to 31N67W. Moderate to locally fresh E winds and rough seas are found north of the boundary. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas south of 25N and between the Bahamas and Africa. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail. A band of multilayer clouds associated with very strong winds aloft persist across the tropical Atlantic, extending from NE South America all the way to W Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends across the NE zones from 28N55W to 31N67W. A broad ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure near 35N57W southwestward to South Florida and the Straits of Florida. Fresh to strong S to SW winds over the NW forecast waters will continue through early Mon in advance of a strong cold front that is expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Mon morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. The front will reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and to west Cuba Mon evening, from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 31N50W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue afternoon. The frontal boundary will begin to dissipate on Thu as another strong cold front moves out across the western forecast waters, reaching from near 31N59W to Hispaniola by Thu evening then stall over the eastern portion Fri S of 26N. $$ Delgado --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC261045_C_KWBC_20260126104535_12124482-4816-TWDAT.txt ****0000007199**** AXNT20 KNHC 261045 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Jan 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front continues to move E-SE across the Gulf this morning, and extends from the Florida Big Bend southwestward to 20N94W then southward and inland across Mexico E of Coatzacoalcos. Strong to near gale- force N winds and rough to very rough seas are found behind the front. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicated that northerly gales were occurring offshore Tampico, and are expected to begin across the waters near Veracruz by sunrise. These gale conditions are forecast to continue offshore Tampico through this morning and offshore Veracruz through late Mon night. The cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin tonight through Mon evening. Seas are expected to quickly build across the Gulf region through Mon reaching 16 or 17 ft across SW portions. Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03.5N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N19W to 04N43W and to 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed south of 08N between 13W and 52W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the western and SW Gulf. A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend southwestward to 20N94W then southward and inland across Mexico E of Coatzacoalcos. Modified arctic air is spilling across the entire basin behind the front to produce a blanket of cold air stratus behind the front. Area radars show fine lines of moderate showers along and ahead of the front across the eastern Gulf and into Florida, with a few isolated strong showers. Gulf buoys show seas have reached 10 ft across NW and SW central portions, outside of the strongest winds. Winds offshore of Tampico are likely 12-13 ft already. Ahead of the front, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, the cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin through Mon evening with very rough seas expected to quickly build across the basin today and tonight. Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. The high will shift southeastward Thu as low pressure develops in the far western Gulf along the next cold frontal boundary. This front is expected to reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally stable conditions prevail across the Caribbean waters. Satellite imagery shows scattered shallow light showers extending across the basin from south of Jamaica east and southeastward to the Lesser Antilles. A broad high pressure ridge north of the area supports fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas to near 8 ft off northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are prevalent in the north- central and eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, high pressure NE of Bermuda will slide SE and weaken through Tue and maintain a ridge N of the Caribbean basin, supporting mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside into early next week, with seas lingering near 8 ft through early Wed. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late today and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of America. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1027 mb high is centered NE of Bermuda near 35N54W and extends a broad ridge southwestward across the NW Bahamas, south Florida and through the Straits of Florida. A 1011 mb low center of located over central Georgia, with a strong cold front then trailing southwestward across the Gulf of America. A tight pressure gradient between the ridge and the low center supports fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas to 8 ft north of 28N and west of 75W. Farther east, a cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N39W and continues southwestward to 28N50W and then as a stationary front to 31N63W. Moderate to locally fresh E winds and rough seas 8 to 12 ft in N swell are found north of the boundary. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas 7 to 10 ft south of 25N and between the Bahamas and Africa. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail. A band of multilayer clouds associated with very strong winds aloft persist across the tropical Atlantic, extending from NE South America all the way to W Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds over the NW forecast waters will continue through mid morning in advance of a strong cold front that is expected to move offshore northeast Florida this morning, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will reach from near 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and S Florida Mon evening, from near 31N57W to the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas are expected W of the front this afternoon through Tue afternoon. The frontal boundary will begin to dissipate on Thu as another cold front moves out across the western forecast waters, reaching from near 29N55W to the central Bahamas Fri morning, before stalling N of 24N Fri night. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC261537_C_KWBC_20260126153737_12124482-4834-TWDAT.txt ****0000007721**** AXNT20 KNHC 261537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Jan 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front continues to move E-SE across the Gulf this morning, and extends from near Yankeetown, Florida southwestward to just west of Puerto Dos Bocas, Mexico along the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf. Strong to near gale- force N winds and rough to very rough seas are found behind the front. Earlier scatterometer satellite data indicated that northerly gales were occurring offshore Tampico. Recent observations inland of Puerto Veracruz show fresh to strong sustained winds with gusts to near gale force, This is indicative of sustained gales just offshore. These gale conditions are forecast to continue offshore Tampico through this morning and offshore Veracruz through late Mon night. The cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin tonight through Mon evening. Seas are expected to quickly build across the Gulf region through Mon reaching 16 or 17 ft across SW portions. Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 17W and 24W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the western and SW Gulf. A cold front extends from near Yankeetown, Florida southwestward to just west of Puerto Dos Bocas, Mexico along the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf. Modified arctic air is spilling across the entire basin behind the front to produce a blanket of cold air stratus behind the front. Numerous showers are likely along the leading edge of the colder air, but no significant thunderstorm activity is evident at this time. Wave heights are up to 13 ft at buoy 42055 in the west-central Gulf, hinting of wave heights to as high as 15 ft farther west in the area of gale force winds closer to the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz. Ahead of the front, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, gale conditions are forecast to prevail offshore Veracruz through late tonight. The cold front will sweep across the rest of the basin through this evening with very rough seas expected to quickly build across the basin today and tonight. Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. The high will shift southeastward Thu as low pressure develops in the far western Gulf along the next cold frontal boundary. This front is expected to reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri evening. Another round of gale force winds near Veracruz will likely begin late Fri night in the wake of this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally fair conditions prevail across the Caribbean this morning, except for a few showers moving quickly in the generally fresh trade wind flow across the eastern and central parts of the basin, south of the dominant subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Strong winds may be pulsing off the coast of Colombia between Cartagena and Barranquilla, where seas to 9 ft area likely. Seas are likely 5-8 ft elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean. An overnight altimeter satellite pass confirmed large combined seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Leeward and Windward Islands. This is due to along fetch of fresh trade winds supporting 8 to 9 ft NE to E swell. Gentle breezes and 2 to 5 ft are evident elsewhere across the northwest Caribbean and the far southwest part of basin. For the forecast, high pressure E of Bermuda will slide SE and weaken through Tue and maintain a ridge N of the Caribbean basin, supporting mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside, with seas lingering near 8 ft through Wed afternoon. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late tonight and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of America. Mainly moderate winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge extends from 1027 mb high is centered east of Bermuda near 33N53W southwestward across the northwest Bahamas, south Florida and through the Straits of Florida. The ridge is shifting east ahead of a strong cold front that is just starting to move off the coasts of Georgia and northeast Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are ahead of the front between northeast Florida and Bermuda north of 29N. Farther east, a cold front just passing the Azores extends to 31N35W to 28N50W, then is stationary south of the high pressure to near 31N65W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted across the deep tropics south of the ridge, specifically south of 22N, with gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 8 ft seas noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds over the NW forecast waters along with rough seas to 10 ft will continue through late morning as the strong cold front continues to move offshore northeast Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop along the front. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas are expected W of the front this afternoon through Tue afternoon. The front will reach from near 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and S Florida this evening, from near 31N57W to the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W to the SE Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Wed evening. The frontal boundary will begin to dissipate on Thu as another cold front moves out across the western forecast waters, reaching from near 29N55W to the central Bahamas Fri morning, before stalling N of 24N Fri night. Elsewhere. a broad ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near 35N54W southwestward to east of the Bahamas. A stationary front extends across the NE zones from 28N55W to 31N64W supporting gentle to moderate winds. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC262337_C_KWBC_20260126233840_12124482-4873-TWDAT.txt ****0000007687**** AXNT20 KNHC 262337 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Jan 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: As of 2100 UTC, a strong cold front extends from South Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong to gale-force northerly winds and rough to very rough seas up to 16-17 ft are found behind the front. Earlier scatterometer satellite data indicated that northerly gales were occurring offshore Tampico, and also offshore Veracruz where the strongest winds of 40 to 45 kt were noted. Recent observations inland of Puerto Veracruz show fresh to strong sustained winds with gusts to near gale force. Gale conditions are forecast to prevail offshore of Tampico through this evening, and offshore of Veracruz through late tonight. Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean tonight and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, the high pressure will shift southeastward on Thu as low pressure develops in the north-central Gulf along the next cold front. This front is expected to reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri evening. Another round of gale-force winds will likely begin near Veracruz, in the wake of the front by Fri night. Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front stretches from 31N76W to South Florida. Fresh to strong winds are blowing on either side of the front with moderate to rough seas. As the cold front continues to move quickly across the coastal and offshore waters of E Florida, frequent gusts to gale-force of 35 to 40 kt are expected behind the front through early Tue morning. Rough seas are forecast within these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Significant rainfall event: A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Tue into Wed. As the front becomes nearly stationary over the NW Caribbean, the northerly winds behind it will transport abundant tropical moisture into the Gulf of Honduras and northmen Honduras, where the onshore flow will favor the development of showers and thunderstorms. Deep tropical moisture will remain in place across southern Mexico and northern Central America supporting more shower and thunderstorm activity with rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts of 4 to 6 inches due to orographic effects. The heaviest rainfall are expected in southern Mexico late tonight into Tue, and in northern Guatemala and Belize Tue into early Wed, and well as in northern Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to the equator at 30W to NE Brazil near 02S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed S of 04N between 24W and 36W. Moderate to strong convection is near the western end of the ITCZ over NE Brazil. GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the western and SW Gulf. As previously mentioned, a strong cold front extends from South Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula. Modified arctic air is spilling across the entire basin behind the front to produce a blanket of cold air stratocumulus clouds across the Gulf waters behind the front. Satellite imagery also show that thick low clouds are banked up against the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico, mainly south of 24N, and stationary front is indicated there. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are associated with the frontal boundary. Wave heights are up to 14 ft at buoy 42055 in the SW Gulf. For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for more information. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic ridge, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure located SE of Bermuda, has retreat E as a cold front moves out of South Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula. Currently, generally fair conditions prevail across the Caribbean, except for a few showers moving quickly in the generally fresh trade wind flow across the basin. The most recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong NE winds near the coast of Colombia, and moderate to locally fresh trades across the remainder of the east and central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are over the NW part of the basin. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 6 to 8 ft near the coast of Colombia, and 1 to 3 ft in the NW Caribbean. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are observed across the Atlantic passages of the Lesser Antilles due to large E swell. For the forecast, the above mentioned high pressure will slide eastward and weaken through Tue. This system will maintain a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea, supporting mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside, with seas lingering near 8 ft through Wed afternoon. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as stronger high pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of America. Mainly moderate winds and seas will prevail over the NW Caribbean beginning Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure centered SE of Bermuda near 31N45W southwestward towards the Bahamas. The ridge is shifting east ahead of a strong cold front that is currently moving across South Florida. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are on either side of the front. Farther east, a cold front enters the forecast area near 31N30W and extends westward to 27N50W where it becomes a stationary front to near 29N60W. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are seen across the deep tropics south of the ridge, specifically south of 22N, with gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 8 ft seas noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will continue to move quickly across the NW part of our waters. Frequent gusts to gale-force are likely tonight in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may develop along the frontal boundary tonight. The front will reach from near 31N71W to the NW Bahamas tonight, from near 31N54W to the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba Tue evening, then become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W to the SE Bahamas and east Cuba Wed evening. The frontal boundary will begin to dissipate on Thu. Another cold front will likely enter our westernmost waters on Sat. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################