--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC040441_C_KWBC_20260504044126_47448518-2572-TWDAT.txt ****0000004639**** AXNT20 KNHC 040441 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon May 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0440 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave is along 43W, from 10N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen along the wave axis. The wave continues to move through a hostile dry environment which inhibits other impacts. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, then continues SW to near 03N22.5W. The ITCZ extends from 03N22.5W to 00N38W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted from 01N to 05N between 17W and 26W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05S01N between 21W and 39W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends across the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found N of the front affecting the SW Florida offshore waters and the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are found south of 27.5N, except for strong NW winds offshore of Veracruz. Seas within these winds are 5 to 8 ft, except for seas to 10 ft offshore Veracruz. Elsewhere, light to gentle and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will wash out by Mon morning. Strong NW winds offshore of Veracruz will diminish overnight. Elsewhere, fresh N to NE winds will continue behind the front through Mon. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night into Thu. A quiet period is expected to start by the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, except for strong wind over the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Seas within these winds are 4 to 7 ft. Gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds prevail over the NW part of the basin along with seas 2 to 4 ft. Scattered moderate convection, associated with the equatorial trough, continues to flare up in the SW Caribbean offshore Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean for the next several days. The remnants of a frontal boundary will drift across the western caribbean through Tue. SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will increase up to strong speeds Tue through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N64W to the Florida Straits. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the front. Recent satellite scatterometer data depict moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of the front, with 4 to 8 ft seas. Elsewhere across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, high pressure prevails, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure located near 25N57W. To the east, a 1012 mb low pressure north of the area and a surface trough are supporting scattered moderate convection north of 25N between 21W and 30W. The pressure gradient between these features combined with lower pressures over W Africa, is promoting an area of moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas between W Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are seen across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from 31N59W to a low pressure area forming near 27N77W early on Mon. The low will ride along the frontal boundary to be just south of Bermuda Tue morning with the front extending southwestward to the central Bahamas. The front should be dissipating by Wed morning. Expect fresh to strong NE winds north of the front through tomorrow. Conditions across the forecast waters should become quiescent Tue through Thu. A weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu night and steadily move eastward through the end of the week. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC040945_C_KWBC_20260504094528_47448518-2588-TWDAT.txt ****0000004119**** AXNT20 KNHC 040945 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon May 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave is along 45W, from 10N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis. The wave continues to move through a hostile dry environment which inhibits other impacts. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N18W to near 02N26W. The ITCZ extends from 02N26W to 00N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough between 18W and 26W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends across the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are found N of the front affecting the SW Florida offshore waters and the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are found south of 27.5N, except for strong NW winds offshore of Veracruz. Seas within these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will weaken today. Fresh N to NE winds will continue behind the front through today. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night into Thu. A quiet period is expected to start by the end of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, except for strong wind over the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Seas within these winds are 4 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail over the NW part of the basin along with seas 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean for the next several days. The remnants of a frontal boundary will drift across the western Caribbean through Tue. SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will increase up to strong speeds Tue through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N64W to the Florida Straits. Recent satellite scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of the front, with 5 to 8 ft seas. Elsewhere across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, high pressure prevails, anchored by 1019 mb high pressure located near 27N56W. To the east, a 1012 mb low pressure north of the area and a surface trough are supporting scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 20W and 31W. The pressure gradient between these features combined with lower pressures over W Africa, is promoting an area of moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas between W Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are seen across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach from 31N59W to a low pressure area forming near 27N77W today. The low will ride along the frontal boundary to be just south of Bermuda Tue morning with the front extending southwestward to the central Bahamas. The front should be dissipating by Wed morning. Expect fresh to strong NE winds north of the front through today. Conditions across the forecast waters should become quiescent Tue through Thu. A weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu night and steadily move eastward through the end of the week. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC041725_C_KWBC_20260504172603_49676782-2509-TWDAT.txt ****0000005674**** AXNT20 KNHC 041725 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon May 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave was introduced near 20W based on an observed maximum in deep layer moisture as noted on the Total Precipitable Water (TPW) imagery from CIMSS and on computer vorticity model guidance. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from the Equator to 02N. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from near 12N49W to just inland Brazil near 01S47W. This wave was also inferred from computer vorticity model guidance, and further supported by a maximum in deep layer moisture that trails the wave axis as depicted on the Total Precipitable Water (TPW) imagery from CIMSS. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is moving through a very stable atmospheric environment. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm east of the wave from the Equator to 02N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, and continues southwestward to 07N23N and to the Equator at 27W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02S32W to 01S38W and to near 02S45W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of the ITCZ between 27W-32W. Scattered moderate convection is within south of the trough to near 01N between 21W-24W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 39W-44W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends across the Straits of Florida to just east of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula while a weak 1018 mb is centered over the far north-central Gulf just east of southeastern Louisiana. Isolated showers are near some sections of the front. Latest scatterometer and buoy data indicate mostly moderate northeast winds south of 28N east of 87W and south of 25N between 87W and 93W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the basin, except for lower seas of 2 to 4 ft over the northern Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will weaken into tonight then dissipate by Tue. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night into Thu as high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. By the end of the week, this high will settle over the entire basin, leading to tranquil conditions for regional waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean per latest scatterometer satellite data, except for strong winds in the Gulf of Venezuela as well as offshore Colombia. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Light and variable winds are over the northwestern part of the sea along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean for the rest of this week. The remnants of a frontal boundary will drift across the northwestern Caribbean on Tue. Light and variable winds are over the northwestern part of the sea along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N62W southwestward to 28N70W to weak low pressure of 1014 mb near the northern Bahamas and southwestward to the Straits of Florida. A recent scatterometer satellite data pass indicates fresh to strong northeast winds north of the frontal boundary to near 30N and between 72W and 80W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft with these winds as seen in recent altimeter satellite data pass. A large area of moderate to heavy rain, with embedded moderate convection is north of 27N between 70W and 74W and northwest of the frontal boundary to 70W. Mostly fresh northeast winds are elsewhere north of the frontal boundary along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. High is over the central Atlantic while a couple of weak troughs are over the eastern Atlantic: One extends from near 30N27W to 21N35W and the other one from 31N35W to a weak 1014 mb low at 28N33W and to near 25N34W. No significant convection is occurring with these features. However, the pressure gradient between these features combined with lower pressures in western Africa is sustaining moderate to fresh northeast winds from 19N to 28N between the wester African coast and 22W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front and 1014 mb low pressure will remain nearly stationary into Tue before the low moves eastward and the front transitions into a cold front Tue night and Wed. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds north of the front will slowly diminish through mid-week as the boundary weakens, with quiescent conditions expected Wed and Thu for area waters. A weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu night and steadily move eastward through the end of the week. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC041747_C_KWBC_20260504174803_49676782-2511-TWDAT.txt ****0000005711**** AXNT20 KNHC 041747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon May 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave was introduced near 20W based on an observed maximum in deep layer moisture as noted on the Total Precipitable Water (TPW) imagery from CIMSS and on computer vorticity model guidance. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from the Equator to 02N. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from near 12N49W to just inland Brazil near 01S47W. This wave was also inferred from computer vorticity model guidance, and further supported by a maximum in deep layer moisture that trails the wave axis as depicted on the Total Precipitable Water (TPW) imagery from CIMSS. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is moving through a very stable atmospheric environment. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm east of the wave from the Equator to 02N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, and continues southwestward to 07N23N and to the Equator at 27W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02S32W to 01S38W and to near 02S45W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of the ITCZ between 27W-32W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm south of the trough to near 01N between 21W-24W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 39W-44W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends across the Straits of Florida to just east of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula while a weak 1018 mb high is centered over the far north-central Gulf just east of southeastern Louisiana. Isolated showers are near some sections of the front. Latest scatterometer and buoy data indicate mostly moderate northeast winds south of 28N east of 87W and south of 25N between 87W and 93W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the basin, except for lower seas of 2 to 4 ft over the northern Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will weaken into tonight then dissipate by Tue. Moderate to fresh southeast to south return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night into Thu as high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. By the end of the week, this high will settle over the entire basin, leading to tranquil conditions for regional waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean per latest scatterometer satellite data, except for strong trades in the Gulf of Venezuela as well as offshore Colombia. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Light and variable winds are over the northwestern part of the sea along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean for the rest of this week. The remnants of a frontal boundary will drift across the northwestern Caribbean on Tue. Light and variable winds are over the northwestern part of the sea along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N62W southwestward to 28N70W to weak low pressure of 1014 mb near the northern Bahamas, and southwestward to the Straits of Florida. A recent scatterometer satellite data pass indicates fresh to strong northeast winds north of the frontal boundary to near 30N and between 72W and 80W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft with these winds as seen in a recent altimeter satellite data pass. A large area of moderate to heavy rain, with embedded moderate convection is north of 27N between 70W and 74W and northwest of the frontal boundary to 70W. Mostly fresh northeast winds are elsewhere north of the frontal boundary along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. High pressure is over the central Atlantic while a couple of weak troughs are over the eastern Atlantic: One extends from near 30N27W to 21N35W and the other one from 31N35W to a weak 1014 mb low at 28N33W and to near 25N34W. No significant convection is occurring with these features. However, the pressure gradient between these features combined with lower pressures in western Africa is sustaining moderate to fresh northeast winds from 19N to 28N between the west African coast and 22W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front and 1014 mb low pressure will remain nearly stationary into Tue before the low moves eastward and the front transitions into a cold front Tue night and Wed. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds north of the front will slowly diminish through mid-week as the boundary weakens, with quiescent conditions expected Wed and Thu for area waters. A weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu night and steadily move eastward through the end of the week. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC042042_C_KWBC_20260504204305_49676782-2519-TWDAT.txt ****0000003699**** AXNT20 KNHC 042042 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue May 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W, S of 10N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W S of 10N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W, and continues southwestward to 00N27W. The ITCZ continues from 00N27W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of 05N between 10W and 30W, and S of 03N between 30W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends across the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel. Gentle to moderate winds, with moderate or lower seas, prevail across the gulf waters. For the forecast, the front will dissipate by Tue. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf starting Tue as high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. Little change is anticipated into the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean. Light and variable winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are over the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras in the weekend, with moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean. The remnants of a frontal boundary dissipate by Tue in the far NW basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N62W to the Florida Straits. Weak low pressure of 1015 mb is meandering along this boundary over the NW Bahamas. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the front. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail west of the front. Farther east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 28N33W. The remainder of the discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 31N49W. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 15N between 37W and 60W. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft range. Light winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to locally moderate winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, generally prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the front and low will remain stationary into Tue before the low moves E and the front transitions into a cold front Tue night and Wed. Fresh to locally strong NE winds N of the front will slowly diminish into mid- week as the boundary weakens, with quiescent conditions expected Wed and Thu for area waters. A weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu night and steadily move eastward through the end of the week. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################