--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC100459_C_KWBC_20261010045914_31523192-6116-TWDAT.txt ****0000006897**** AXNT20 KNHC 100459 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Isaias is centered near 30.8N 86.5W at 10/0300 UTC or 40 nm ENE of Pensacola Florida, moving N at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is N of 26N and E of 86W. Seas up to 30 ft are expected near the coast of the Florida Panhandle with the strongest winds. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to move across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley Saturday and Sunday while weakening. Swells from Isaias are affecting much of the Gulf coasts of the United States, Mexico, and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 30W, south of 19N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers prevail along the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. This wave continues to interact with an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean, with scattered moderate convection noted to the east of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 12N30W to 09N45W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Isaias. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Isaias dominate most of the Gulf, reaching as far south as 23N based on an altimeter pass. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds spiral into Isaias from the Yucatan Channel northward between the western Florida coastal waters and the central Louisiana coastal waters near 93W. Elsewhere, a dissipating stationary front extends across N Florida. Moderate to fresh cyclonic N to NW winds prevail across the western Gulf, where seas are 4 to 8 ft in NE to E swell from Isaias. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across the central Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, Hurricane Isaias will weaken to a tropical storm near 32.7N 86.7W Sat morning, and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.7N 86.7W Sat evening, to 36.9N 84.4W Sun morning, to 39.0N 80.5W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. Swells generated by Isaias will continue to spread across most of the basin through Sat night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker easterly winds across much of the basin through at least late next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active tropical wave in the western Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate seas are with these winds. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are observed west of 84W through the Yucatan Channel, blowing into the general circulation of Hurricane Isaias. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are prevalent over the remainder of the NW Caribbean as well as over the SW part of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean and moderate seas are expected to continue through the next few days. Winds will pulse to strong speeds and seas will reach 8 ft tonight through Sun night in the south- central Caribbean and Gulf of Venezuela. Meanwhile, a tropical wave near 82W, in combination with an upper-level low, is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms N of 14N between 75W and 82W. Unsettled weather conditions will remain associated with this wave as it moves across the rest of the western Caribbean through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1016 mb low pressure located N of area near 34N53W to 27N64W, then becomes stationary to 30N81W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found north of the front off NE Florida and Georgia. South of the front, a weak pressure gradient prevails west of 50W, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft with the exception of moderate to fresh SE winds N of Hispaniola to about 23N between 68W and 73W. An upper-level low is spinning Ne of the Leeward Islands producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N46W to 21N50W and continues to produce scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1032 mb high pressure located just NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports moderate to fresh winds NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough and E of 40W to the coast of W Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will lift back N as a warm front tonight into Sat. Fresh easterly winds off NE Florida will veer to the SE at moderate to fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to gentle to moderate speeds by Sun. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are expected at night off Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage tonight through Sun night. Otherwise, as high pressure moves across the western Atlantic, a tightening pressure gradient will support northeast to east winds of fresh to strong speeds and rough seas behind a cold front over the eastern waters, mainly N of 25N, Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. southeastern coast early on Mon and move across the waters N of 29N through Wed night while weakening. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will dominate much of the basin next week. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################