--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2024-11-30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC300543_C_KWBC_20241130054358_33751060-3156-TWDAT.txt ****0000004390**** AXNT20 KNHC 300543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Nov 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and continues westward to 06N14W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N14W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 06N between the west coast of Africa and 16W, as well as from 04N to 11N between 22W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Naples, FL to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong NE to N winds prevail north of the cold front, with 6 to 8 ft seas. In the Gulf waters west of 93W, seas have built to 8 to 11 ft in near-gale-force N winds offshore of Tampico, Mexico. South of the cold front, light and variable winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, a cold front extending from southwest Florida to 23N93W and to Veracruz, Mexico will stall from the Straits of Florida to the SW Gulf on Sat and weaken. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this front. Winds to near gale-force, or with brief gusts to gale force, may occur W of the front over the SW Gulf tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the front will shift eastward through Sun night as a trough develops in the far western Gulf. The resulting pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas over the waters W of 90W into early next week while at the same time winds increase over the remainder of the Gulf going into the middle of next week, with the passage of a stronger cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 mb low has been analyzed in the western Caribbean near 16N82W, and a 1008 mb low is near 12N81W with a trough extending northward toward central Cuba. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is occurring in the central Caribbean south of 18N and west of 75W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail in the NW Caribbean near the areas of low pressure. Elsewhere, moderate E trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in the central and eastern Caribbean, with locally fresh trades in the southeastern Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades are expected over most of the basin through Sat night. A cold front will move into the NW Caribbean on Sat, with winds strengthening over these waters in the wake of the front toward the end of the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will then cover the majority of the basin going into the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has been analyzed from 31N75W southwestward through SE Florida. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are occurring behind the front. Elsewhere, the Atlantic is dominated by 1027 mb high pressure centered near 34N44W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are occurring north of 20N, and moderate to fresh E trades are occurring south of 20N. Seas are 4 to 8 ft in open waters, increasing to 8 to 9 ft in the far eastern Atlantic between Cabo Verde and the Canary Islands, as well as across areas from 04N and 23N between 32W and 55W. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida is forecast to move across the waters through the weekend before becoming stationary from near 31N58W to 26N65W to the Windward Passage by Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A coastal trough is expected to develop along the NE Florida coast late Sat into Sun, then weaken late on Sun as its shifts E. A reinforcing cold front may move off the Florida coast early on Sun evening, followed by fresh northwest to north winds. It will then merge with the stationary front early next week. The merged front is expected to reach from near 31N55W to the Windward Passage the middle of next week. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC301052_C_KWBC_20241130105259_33751060-3174-TWDAT.txt ****0000006170**** AXNT20 KNHC 301052 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Nov 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis remains inland Africa. The ITCZ extends from near 06N11W and continues westward to 05N24W to 05N35W to 04N45W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 05N between 08W and 16W, and within 120 north of the ITCZ between 23W and 34W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W and 37W, also between 39W and 45W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 29W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Keys to 23N90W and to inland Mexico just south of Veracruz. Overnight ASCAT satellite data indicates that fresh to strong NE winds continue north of the cold front, except for strong to near gale NW to N winds off Veracruz. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft, except for 9 to 11 ft seas off Veracruz. The ASCAT satellite data and buoy observations show light to gentle winds NE winds south of the cold front, except for light and variable winds south of the front to 21N between 90W and 95W. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft in NW to N swell, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in the central Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the above mentioned cold front will stall from the Straits of Florida to the SW Gulf today and begin to weaken. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will exist behind the front. Winds to near gale-force in the SW Gulf will gradually diminish through early this evening. High pressure building in the wake of the front will shift eastward through Sun night as a trough develops in the far western Gulf. The resulting pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas over the waters W of 90W into early next week, and while at the same time winds increase over the remainder of the Gulf going into the middle of next week, with the passage of a stronger cold front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1008 mb low is analyzed in the western Caribbean near 12N81W. This position is along the eastern part of the E Pacific monsoon trough that protrudes into the southwestern Caribbean. An upper- level anticyclone is situated over the low. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms in the western Caribbean south of 18N and between 76W and the coast of Central America. Overnight ASCAT satellite data reveals moderate to fresh trades in the basin, except for light and variable winds in the extreme southwestern portion south of about 12N between 76W and 82W. Seas in the basin are in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 4 to 6 ft south of 18N W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, also from 15N to 18N between 64W and 85W and north of 18N W of 80W, including waters in the vicinity of the Yucatan Channel. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the southeastern part of the sea south of 13N between 62W and 64W. This activity is moving westward with the trade wind flow. Recent surface observations from Grenada note this activity. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will be over the basin through this afternoon. A cold front presently over the southern Gulf of Mexico will enter the northwestern Caribbean this afternoon, with winds strengthening over these waters in the wake of the front toward the end of the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will then cover the majority of the basin going into the middle of next week as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stretches from 31N70W southwestward to the NW Bahamas and to the Florida Keys. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N67W to 25N75W and to 23N78W. Fresh to strong NW winds are occurring behind the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and within 60 nm east of the trough north of 24N. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are north of 28N and between 61W and 65W, and from 22N to 28N between 57W and 65W. To the east of the front, an area of fresh to strong S winds is evident north of 27N between 56W and 64W. Seas with these winds are peaking to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the Atlantic is dominated by 1027 mb high pressure that is centered well north of the area near 34N42W. The tail-end of a dissipating cold front reaches southwestward from east of the Azores to near 31N35W. Moderate to fresh N winds are behind the front near 31N, and no significant weather is associated with it. Otherwise, moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are occurring north of 20N while moderate to fresh trades are occurring south of 20N. Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft in open waters, increasing to 8 to 9 ft in the far eastern Atlantic between Cabo Verde and the Canary Islands, as well as across areas from 04N and 23N between 32W and 55W. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will become stationary from near 31N58W to 26N65W and to the Windward Passage by Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A coastal trough will develop along the NE Florida coast today, then weaken late on Sun as its shifts E. A reinforcing cold front is expected to move off the Florida coast early on Sun evening, followed by fresh northwest to north winds. It will then merge with the stationary front early next week. The merged front is expected to reach from near 31N55W to the Windward Passage during the middle of the upcoming week. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC301719_C_KWBC_20241130172002_33751060-3202-TWDAT.txt ****0000004434**** AXNT20 KNHC 301719 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Nov 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to the coast of far NE Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 22W and 34W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1500 UTC, a stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to 1017 mb low pressure near 20N95W to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Surface observations and satellite scatterometer data indicates moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds prevail north of the front, with 4-7 ft seas. In the W Bay of Campeche, NW winds are fresh to strong with 7-9 ft seas. While wind speeds south of the front are light to gentle, seas are also 4-7 ft in these waters. For the forecast, eastern portions of the stationary front may shift into the NW Caribbean later today or tonight while western sections of the stationary front weaken. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in the vicinity of the front will gradually diminish through early this evening. High pressure building in the wake of the front will shift eastward through Sun night as a trough develops in the far western Gulf. The resulting pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly winds and building seas over the waters W of 90W into early next week. Winds will increase over the remainder of the Gulf going into the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough analyzed in the NW Caribbean is currently producing some showers and tstorms. Another surface trough is analyze across the eastern Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the eastern, central, and SW Caribbean. In the NW Caribbean, NE winds are also gentle to moderate. Seas are 4-6 ft across the basin, with highest seas in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia in an area of locally fresh trades. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail over the basin through this afternoon. A cold front presently over the southern Gulf of Mexico may enter the NW Caribbean later this afternoon or tonight, with winds strengthening over these waters in the wake of the front toward the end of the weekend. Fresh to strong winds will then expand in coverage over the majority of the basin going into the middle of next week as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N68W to the Straits of Florida. A pre-frontal trough is ahead of the front, extending from 31N63W to 26N70W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N to 30N between 58W and 67W. Gentle to moderate N winds are west of the front, and moderate to fresh SE winds are along northern sections of the front and pre-frontal trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is influenced by 1030 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the eastern Atlantic increase to moderate to fresh speeds west of 35W, before diminishing to light to gentle speeds west of 65W. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters, with seas to 8 ft possible locally within patches of fresh winds. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will become stationary from near 31N58W to 26N65W and to the Windward Passage by Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A coastal trough will develop along the NE Florida coast today, then weaken late on Sun as its shifts E. A reinforcing cold front is expected to move off the Florida coast early on Sun evening, followed by fresh northwest to north winds. It will then merge with the stationary front early next week. The merged front is expected to reach from near 31N55W to the Windward Passage during the middle of the upcoming week. $$ Mahoney ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC302345_C_KWBC_20241130234604_33751060-3223-TWDAT.txt ****0000004335**** AXNT20 KNHC 302345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Dec 01 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Liberia near 06N11W to the coast of far NE Brazil near 03N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 07N between 17W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... At 1800 UTC, a 1018 mb low is centered near 22N96W and a stationary front extends from the low toward the east to 23N86W, with a cold front farther east into northern Cuba. Fresh NE winds are occurring to the north of these fronts, with moderate E to NE winds covering northern portions of the basin. A cold front also extends southward from the low pressure towards Veracruz, Mexico, and fresh NW winds are noted behind this front. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are occurring along and ahead of the front, with seas of 3 to 6 ft in the central and northern Gulf. For the forecast, the cold fronts and stationary fronts will gradually dissipate through Sun. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas in the vicinity of the front will gradually diminish through tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the front will shift eastward through Sun night as a trough develops in the far western Gulf. The resulting pressure gradient will support fresh to strong E winds and building seas over the waters west of 90W into early next week. Winds will increase over the remainder of the Gulf going into the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough analyzed in the NW Caribbean is currently producing some showers and thunderstorms. Another surface trough is present across central Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the eastern, central, and SW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong E winds are noted in the south-central Caribbean off the NW coast of Venezuela and Colombia. In the NW Caribbean, NE winds are also gentle to moderate. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the basin, with highest seas in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the basin through Sun, and locally strong E winds will pulse in the south-central Carribbean. Winds will strengthen over the NW waters Sun. The fresh to strong winds will then expand in coverage over the majority of the basin going into the middle of next week as strong high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N65W to the central Bahamas and into northwest Cuba. A pre-frontal trough is ahead of the front, extending from 31N61W to 25N69W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 24N to 30N between 55W and 67W. Gentle to moderate N winds are west of the front, and moderate to fresh SE winds are along northern sections of the front and pre-frontal trough. The remainder of the Atlantic is influenced by 1029 mb high pressure centered SW of the Azores. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the eastern Atlantic increase to moderate to fresh speeds west of 30W, before diminishing to light to gentle speeds west of 65W. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters, with seas to 8 ft possible locally within patches of fresh winds. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will become stationary from near 31N58W to 26N65W and to the Windward Passage by Sun night. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will follow the front. A reinforcing cold front is expected to move off the Florida coast Sun night, followed by fresh NW to N winds. It will then merge with the stationary front early next week. The merged front is expected to reach from near 31N55W to the Windward Passage during the middle of the upcoming week. $$ ADAMS ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################