--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC170409_C_KWBC_20260817041014_4522426-815-TWDAT.txt ****0000004936**** AXNT20 KNHC 170409 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Aug 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0405 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along 17W, south of 20N, based on satellite data and tropical wave guidance. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 18N and east of 22W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is noted along 37W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 51W and 61W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is enhancing convection over Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 11N40W. The ITCZ extends from 11N40W to 11N54W and then from 11N56W to 10N62W. No significant convection is evident aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 2-4 ft south of 25N and east of 95W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. A few showers are seen in the eastern Bay of Campeche and western Gulf waters, while dry conditions are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to occasionally strong winds N of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Favorable upper level conditions and tropical moisture combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean and off central Cuba. Meanwhile, a tight pressure gradient supports fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean and Windward Passage. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean though Mon. Fresh to strong winds over the central basin will resume Wed night through Fri night as high pressure redevelops E of the Bahamas. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean will move across the western Caribbean through Tue before moving W of the region. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure system near 33N56W to 29N63W and to 31N71W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present north of 25N and between 51W and 72W. Moderate to locally strong SW-W winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found north of 26N and between 50W and 65W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic is dominated by a ridge that supports moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas south of 24N and west of 60W. The central and eastern tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1026 mb high pressure system centered near the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Similar winds and seas are present south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and west of 31W. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a ridge along 28N and a tropical wave moving through the central Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds south of 22N through tonight. A cold front extending from 31N56W to 30N70W will continue to move across the northern forecast waters on Mon then stall and weaken into a trough by Tue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are ahead of the front along with scattered showers and tstms. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC171033_C_KWBC_20260817103419_4522426-834-TWDAT.txt ****0000004793**** AXNT20 KNHC 171033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Aug 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic along 18W, south of 20N, based on satellite data and tropical wave guidance. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 18N between 13W and 25W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 38W, extending from 02N to 18N, and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 10N between 35W and 40W. A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 57W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 51W and 61W. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 78W, south of 20N, and moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is ahead of the wave axis and over the Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through 18N16W and continues southwestward to 13N30W to 11N43W. The ITCZ extends from 11N43W and continues to 14N52W to 11N61W. No significant convection is evident aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting light to gentle variable winds and slight seas N of 24N. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are in the SW basin due to a westward moving through in the Bay of Campeche, which is also supporting moderate seas to 6 ft. Moderate NE to E winds are also in the Florida Straits and the approaches to the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to occasionally strong winds N of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave over the SW Caribbean is supporting heavy showers and tstms across the Central America offshore waters and is also associated with fresh to strong winds affecting most of the central and portions of the SW Caribbean where seas are rough to 10 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE to E and seas are moderate, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are elsewhere in the NW Caribbean, except for fresh winds in the lee side of Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean though late today. Fresh to strong winds over the central basin will resume Wed night through Fri night as high pressure redevelops E of the Bahamas. A tropical wave with axis near 78W will continue to move across the western Caribbean through Tue before moving W of the region. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1009 mb low pressure system near 33N54W to 31N54W to 27N63W to 31N71W. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front N of 28N and E of 58W. Scattered showers and tstms are within 240 nm ahead of the front. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1026 mb high pressure system centered N of the Azores, which is supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, except for moderate to fresh NE winds E of 20W. For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging along 27N and the passage of a pair of tropical waves across the Caribbean Sea will modulate moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of 23N through the forecast period. Otherwise, the cold front will continue to move across the northern forecast waters today then stall and weaken into a trough by Tue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds ahead of the front will diminish by this evening. However, shower activity associated with the front and its remnants is forecast through Thu. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC171614_C_KWBC_20260817161612_31523192-1066-TWDAT.txt ****0000005424**** AXNT20 KNHC 171614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Aug 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 18N between 13W and 25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W, extending from 02N to 18N, and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 10N between 35W and 40W. Another central tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with its axis near 56W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated convection is within 240 nm west of the wave from 12N to 15N. A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W south of 19N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is ahead of the wave axis and over the Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N20W and to 12N30W to 12N35W to 10N42W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 12N50W and to 13N57W. No significant convection is evident aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting light to gentle variable winds and slight seas north of 24N. Moderate northeast to east winds are over the central and eastern Bay of Campeche due to a westward moving trough that is now in the central Bay of Campeche. Seas to around 6 ft are over the waters where these winds are present. Moderate northeast to east winds are over the lower Straits of Florida and the approaches to the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to occasionally strong winds north of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over the western Caribbean Sea from 15N to 18N west of 82W to just inland Honduras and Nicaragua Similar convection is confined to the southwestern Caribbean south of 12N between 74W and 81W, including most of Panama and just inland northwest Colombia. Fresh to strong trades cover most of the central portion of the basin and the eastern portion of the western portion. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these trades. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades are exist elsewhere along with moderate seas. Fresh northeast winds are in the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades are over the remainder of the western portion of the sea, except for fresh east winds in the lee side of Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean though late today. The area of high pressure will then weaken through midweek, loosening the pressure gradient with resultant winds diminishing slightly. High pressure will build north of the area once again the second half of the week, tightening the pressure gradient, and strengthening winds over the central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1010 mb gale center north of the area near 34N52W southwestward to 31N54W to 29N57W and to 28N64W to 28N68W and northwestward to 31N74W, transitioning to stationary front north of there. Latest satellite scatterometer data shows fresh to strong southwest winds north of 28N east of front to near 49W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft with these winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are present within 180 nm east-southeast of the front north of 25N, and within 120 nm south of the front between 62W and 66W and also between 70W and 73W. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1028 mb high pressure center located north of the Azores. Its related gradient is s supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, except for moderate to fresh northeast winds east of 20W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will will stall and weaken into a trough by Tue. Moderate winds in the vicinity of the front will diminish tonight. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across much of the area north of 22N through the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds can be expected south of about 22N. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC172214_C_KWBC_20260817221614_31523192-1086-TWDAT.txt ****0000005021**** AXNT20 KNHC 172214 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Aug 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 19N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished this evening A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 38W, extending from 02N to 18N, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. Another central tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with its axis near 58W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm west of the wave from 11N to 17N. A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W south of 19N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Numerous moderate convection is ahead of the wave axis and over the Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama offshore waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through 17N16W and continues southwestward to 12N25W to 11N39W, where it transitions to the ITCZ, then continues to 11N50W and to 11N57W. No significant convection is evident aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure of 1021 mb, centered offshore Louisiana, dominates the Gulf waters, supporting mainly gentle winds and slight seas. offshore the Florida Panhandle moderate W winds have developed in associated with a trough N of the area. Moderate to fresh NE to N winds are over the central and eastern Bay of Campeche due to a westward moving trough that along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas to around 6 ft are over the waters where these winds are present. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the week. A weak pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh winds N of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Numerous moderate convection is noted in the NW basin W of 82W, in association with the interaction of a tropical wave to the SE and a surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. See the Tropical Waves section above for information on further convection caused by the tropical wave as well as additional thunderstorms entering the eastern basin in association with a second tropical wave. Fresh to locally strong trades and rough seas dominate the central basin, with moderate to fresh trades in the eastern and southwest basin, along with moderate seas. In the NW basin, away from convection where locally higher winds and seas are likely, gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean through this evening. The area of high pressure will then weaken through midweek, loosening the pressure gradient with resultant winds diminishing slightly. High pressure will build N of the area once again the second half of the week into the weekend, tightening the pressure gradient, and strengthening winds over the central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1010 mb low center north of the area near 35N50W southwestward to 31N51W to 27N60W to 27N70W and northwestward to 31N74W. East of the front, to about 45W, and N of 27N, scattered moderate convection and fresh to strong SW winds prevail. To the W, south of the boundary to 25N, scattered moderate convection also is ongoing. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a 1028 mb high pressure center located north of the Azores. Its related gradient is supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will will stall and weaken into a trough by Tue. Winds in the vicinity of the front will diminish tonight. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across much of the area N of 22N through the week. Moderate to locally fresh winds can be expected S of 22N. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################