--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC040435_C_KWBC_20260704043542_32440682-4415-TWDAT.txt ****0000005344**** AXNT20 KNHC 040435 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Jul 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0434 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has been introduced in the 00Z analysis along 22W, south of 17N. Isolated convection is depicted along the wave axis. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 31.5W, extending from 04N to 17N, and moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 06N to 12N between 27W and 38W. A tropical wave is across the eastern Caribbean, south of 19N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 62.5W and 70W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N29W. The ITCZ extends from 10N34W to 06N53W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06.5N to 08.5N between 37W and 49.5W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure extends a ridge across the western Atlantic SW across the SE U.S. and to the central Gulf waters, anchored by a 1017 mb high in the central Gulf. This supports light to gentle winds and slight seas across most of the basin, except for gentle to moderate NE to E winds over the Bay of Campeche associated with a surface trough. Afternoon convection over Florida has drifted westward over the eastern Gulf as it weakens. For the forecast, the weak surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week. These winds are the result of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight to moderate seas are expected. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant tropical moisture accompanying the tropical wave along 66.5W has encountered favorable upper level conditions due to an elongated middle to upper-level low pressure N of the Greater Antilles, supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the eastern Caribbean east of 74W. Western Cuba and western Hispaniola afternoon convection has drifted offshore as it weakens. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low continues to support fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8-10 ft in the central to SW Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas 4 to 6 ft are occurring in the eastern Caribbean away from areas of convection associated with the tropical wave near 66.5W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The E Pacific extension of the monsoon continues to support scattered strong convection over the waters near the coasts of NW Colombia and Panama. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Wed night. Expect winds to reach near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms across the E Caribbean are being fueled by a tropical wave with axis along 66W. The wave and its associated moisture will reach Hispaniola and the central Caribbean waters on Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening frontal boundary continues to meander just north of the area along 31N-33N between 57W and 70W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms previal across much of the central and northwestern Atlantic between the stalled front and 25.5N, from 43W to 64W, and focused along another surface trough from 31N46W to 26N53W. Otherwise, the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward across the subtropical Atlantic waters, thus supporting mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the waters S of 22N. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across areas from 08N to 22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail across much of the remaining Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to build westward into central Florida through early next week. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################