--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC100459_C_KWBC_20261010045914_31523192-6116-TWDAT.txt ****0000006897**** AXNT20 KNHC 100459 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Isaias is centered near 30.8N 86.5W at 10/0300 UTC or 40 nm ENE of Pensacola Florida, moving N at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is N of 26N and E of 86W. Seas up to 30 ft are expected near the coast of the Florida Panhandle with the strongest winds. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to move across Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley Saturday and Sunday while weakening. Swells from Isaias are affecting much of the Gulf coasts of the United States, Mexico, and western Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 30W, south of 19N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers prevail along the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. This wave continues to interact with an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean, with scattered moderate convection noted to the east of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 12N30W to 09N45W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 300 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Isaias. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Isaias dominate most of the Gulf, reaching as far south as 23N based on an altimeter pass. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds spiral into Isaias from the Yucatan Channel northward between the western Florida coastal waters and the central Louisiana coastal waters near 93W. Elsewhere, a dissipating stationary front extends across N Florida. Moderate to fresh cyclonic N to NW winds prevail across the western Gulf, where seas are 4 to 8 ft in NE to E swell from Isaias. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across the central Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, Hurricane Isaias will weaken to a tropical storm near 32.7N 86.7W Sat morning, and weaken to a tropical depression near 34.7N 86.7W Sat evening, to 36.9N 84.4W Sun morning, to 39.0N 80.5W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. Swells generated by Isaias will continue to spread across most of the basin through Sat night. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker easterly winds across much of the basin through at least late next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active tropical wave in the western Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean. Moderate seas are with these winds. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are observed west of 84W through the Yucatan Channel, blowing into the general circulation of Hurricane Isaias. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are prevalent over the remainder of the NW Caribbean as well as over the SW part of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean and moderate seas are expected to continue through the next few days. Winds will pulse to strong speeds and seas will reach 8 ft tonight through Sun night in the south- central Caribbean and Gulf of Venezuela. Meanwhile, a tropical wave near 82W, in combination with an upper-level low, is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms N of 14N between 75W and 82W. Unsettled weather conditions will remain associated with this wave as it moves across the rest of the western Caribbean through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a 1016 mb low pressure located N of area near 34N53W to 27N64W, then becomes stationary to 30N81W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found north of the front off NE Florida and Georgia. South of the front, a weak pressure gradient prevails west of 50W, supporting moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft with the exception of moderate to fresh SE winds N of Hispaniola to about 23N between 68W and 73W. An upper-level low is spinning Ne of the Leeward Islands producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N46W to 21N50W and continues to produce scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1032 mb high pressure located just NE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports moderate to fresh winds NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough and E of 40W to the coast of W Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will lift back N as a warm front tonight into Sat. Fresh easterly winds off NE Florida will veer to the SE at moderate to fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to gentle to moderate speeds by Sun. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are expected at night off Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage tonight through Sun night. Otherwise, as high pressure moves across the western Atlantic, a tightening pressure gradient will support northeast to east winds of fresh to strong speeds and rough seas behind a cold front over the eastern waters, mainly N of 25N, Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. southeastern coast early on Mon and move across the waters N of 29N through Wed night while weakening. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will dominate much of the basin next week. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC101023_C_KWBC_20261010102355_4522426-6157-TWDAT.txt ****0000005450**** AXNT20 KNHC 101023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 19N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 18N and east of 45W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from 14N to 23N and between 75W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 16N17W and continues southwestward to near 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 07N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N to 17N and between 45W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Hurricane Isaias weakened quickly after making landfall and is now analyzed as a post-tropical cyclone over central Alabama. A cold front is forming over the eastern Gulf, extending from the low pressure to near northern Yucatan. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture sustain a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms from north of Tampa to just north of Yucatan. Dry air dominates the rest of the basin allowing for generally fair weather conditions. Moderate to locally strong southerly winds are found ahead of the cold front, while moderate or weaker winds are noted behind the front. Seas of 6-11 ft are found across much of the Gulf, with the highest seas occurring in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, the remnants of Isaias will continue to move northward away from the area. Strong winds over the NE Gulf and residual rough seas over much of the basin will dissipate this evening. A surface trough over the eastern Gulf is producing a line of showers and thunderstorms. This trough will transition into a cold front this morning and will move east of the basin on Sun. Weak high pressure will develop over the north-central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker easterly winds across much of the basin through at least late next week. . ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active tropical wave in the western Caribbean. A 1023 mb high pressure system near Bermuda extends southward to the Caribbean, forcing moderate to locally strong easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the central and eastern parts of the basin. Moderate or lighter winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across much of the basin through the middle of next week. Winds will pulse to strong speeds and seas will reach 9 ft at night through Sun night in the south- central Caribbean and Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds will also occur in the Windward Passage tonight. Meanwhile, a tropical wave near 83W, in combination with an upper-level low, is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 14N between 75W and 80W. Unsettled weather conditions will remain associated with this wave as it moves across the rest of the western Caribbean through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N55W and continues southwestward to 27N65W, followed by a stationary front to just north of our area near 31N73W. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture pushed northward by former cyclone Isaias sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 74W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident across the waters west of 55W. A broad 1033 mb high pressure system near the Azores and a surface trough along 55W combine to support moderate to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 5-9 ft north of the monsoon trough and east of 55W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring south of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, divergence aloft and tropical moisture result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 72W. The aforementioned cold front will continue to move southeastward over the next few days. Building ridge over the western Atlantic will result in a tightening pressure gradient behind the front generating fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas over the eastern waters, mainly N of 25N, Sun into Mon. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are expected at night off Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage through Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. southeastern coast early on Mon and move across the area through Wed night while weakening. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will dominate much of the basin next week. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################