--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC250002_C_KWBC_20260825000324_31523192-1680-TWDAT.txt ****0000008570**** AXNT20 KNHC 250002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Subtropical Atlantic (Invest AL95): Satellite-wind data indicate that the low-level circulation associated with an area of low pressure centered a few hundred nautical miles east- southeast of Bermuda remains broad and somewhat elongated. Fresh to strong southerly winds are noted mainly on the NE side of the low, north of 25N between 52W and 60W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft, highest just north of the area. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 22N to 35N between 52W and 60W. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for further development, but this system could become a short- lived tropical depression or storm through Tuesday while it moves northward then north-northeastward, and well northeast of Bermuda. By Wednesday, the low is forecast to move over cold waters, ending its formation chances. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure have exited Africa today, and are over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde islands. This system is producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 07N to 14N E of 27W. Presently these showers and thunderstorms do not show signs of organization. However, this system could become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less conducive for development by the weekend. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on these features. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave and associated area of low pressure has moved away from the west coast of Africa , and is near 19W, and is described above. 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed near the wave at 11N18.5W. An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 43W, south of 19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below for details on any nearby convection as it is elongated along the ITCZ axis. An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 60W south of 21N, moving westward around 10 kt. Convection near the wave is limited, however some widely scattered showers near the axis are occurring inland over Venezuela. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W south of 21N to northwest Venezuela, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave over land, across Hispaniola, and over NW Venezuela and NE Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 14N16.5W and continues southwestward to low pressure near 11N18.5W 1010 mb to 12N37W to 08N45W. The ITCZ extends from 08N45W to 06N51W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 36W and 57W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A large cluster of moderate to strong thunderstorms has shifted southward throughout the afternoon and is now along and within 120 nm of the coasts from Panama City, FL to the Atchafalaya Bay, LA. 1018 mb high pressure is centered over the central Gulf near 26N87W, and is generally producing light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, except moderate NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Slight seas of 3 ft or less prevail over the basin per buoy observations. For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over NE Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge remaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend. A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America continues to allow for moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of NW Venezuela and northern Colombia, with a narrow zone of strong winds along the coasts near the Gulf of Venezuela and far NE Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft with these trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas elsewhere. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N to 15.5N W of 80W, including over portions of northern Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. For the forecast, the current pattern across the region will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south- central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following passages several tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical cyclone formation, and on Invest AL96, a tropical wave that has recently emerged off Africa. A weak surface trough is analyzed across the western Atlantic extending SW through 31N74W to the NW Bahamas. Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are within 60 nm of this trough. Moderate SW winds are occurring north of this through. 1018 mb high pressure is east of this feature near 29N72W. South of this high, fresh E-SE winds are noted from the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the approach to the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 61W. Slight to moderate seas prevail north of 20N and west of 61W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 26N to 31N between 67W and 73W, supported by an upper level low to the SW of Bermuda. Elongated low pressure and attendant surface troughs prevail over the waters N of 23N between 53W and 62W and described above with Invest AL96. Another pair of weak surface troughs are in the NE portion of the basin from near the Canary Islands westward as the remnants of an old frontal boundary. No significant convection is noted near these features. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging prevails. Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 5 to 8 ft seas. Winds are mainly moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters. For the forecast west of 55W, low pressure of 1016 mb centered near 30N61W is producing scattered moderate convection and strong S winds E of its center to about 52W. This low is showing signs of tropical organization, but will move N and out of the area by tonight. Additional development of this system is possible, and a short- lived tropical depression or storm could form through Tue well E or NE of Bermuda. Regardless of development, conditions will improve over area waters by Tue as the system moves away. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will prevail, with moderate to fresh trades will prevail S of 23N, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most westward across the far southern waters into the weekend. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC250521_C_KWBC_20260825052145_4522426-1544-TWDAT.txt ****0000006294**** AXNT20 KNHC 250521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure is analyzed over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde islands. THe wave extends along 19W and S of 20N, with 1010 mb low centered near 11N19W. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are noted from 08N to 15N between 18W-22W. This system could become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less conducive for development by the weekend. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W, south of 19N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers prevail along the wave axis and S of 15N. An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 61W south of 21N, moving westward around 10 kt. No convection is noted with this wave at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W south of 21N to northwest Venezuela, moving westward around 10 kt. No convection is noted with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N48W. The ITCZ extends from 11N48W to 06N51W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1016 mb high pressure is centered over the central Gulf near 24N86W, and is generally producing light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, except moderate NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Slight seas of 3 ft or less prevail over the basin per buoy observations. For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over the central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge remaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend. A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America continues to allow for moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of NW Venezuela and northern Colombia, with a narrow zone of strong winds along the coasts near the Gulf of Venezuela and far NE Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft with these trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas elsewhere. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N to 15N W of 80W, including over portions of northern Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. For the forecast, the current pattern across the region will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following passages several tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low pressure, Invest AL96, and tropical wave that emerged off Africa. A weak surface trough is analyzed across the western Atlantic extending SW through 30N75W to 27N79W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of this trough. Moderate SW winds are occurring north of the trough. A 1019 mb high pressure is east of this feature near 29N70W. South of the high, fresh E-SE winds are noted from the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 60W. Slight to moderate seas prevail north of 20N and west of 61W. Invest AL95 is currently N of the area. Its associated trough prevails over the waters N of 26N between 60W and 62W. Scattered moderate convection prevails E of the trough mainly N of 24N between 55W-59W. Another weak surface trough is analyzed in the East Atlantic from 29N32W to 25N34W. No convection related to this trough. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging prevails. Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 5 to 8 ft seas. Winds are mainly moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms in the wake of Invest AL95 prevail north of 24N between 54W and 60W. Fresh to strong south winds are north of 28N between 55W and 59W. These conditions will diminish through Tue as the low, possibly a tropical cyclone, moves farther away from the forecast waters. Elsewhere, moderate to at times fresh trades, will prevail S of about 23N, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most westward across the far southern waters into the weekend. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC251029_C_KWBC_20260825102948_4522426-1561-TWDAT.txt ****0000007030**** AXNT20 KNHC 251029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure is analyzed over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde islands. THe wave extends along 20W/21W and S of 20N, with a 1010 mb low centered along the wave axis near 11N21W. Disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 12N between 17W and 25W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less conducive for development by the weekend. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W south of 20N moving westward around 15 kt. Convection as described below under Monsoon Trough/ITCZ. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W south of 21N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently occurring with this wave. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W south of 21N to northern Colombia moving westward around 10 kt. No convection is presently noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N24W and westward to 12.5N35W to 11N40W and to 09N48W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 43W-47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 47W-50W, and within 30 nm of the trough between 38W-43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A relatively weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered over the central Gulf near 25N89W, and is generally producing light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, except moderate NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Slight seas of 3 ft or less prevail over the basin per buoy observations. For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over the central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge remaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend. A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America continues to allow for moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia, with a narrow zone of strong winds along the coasts near the Gulf of Venezuela and far NE Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft with these trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas elsewhere. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is confined to south of 15N west of 80W, including some of the inland sections of Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 18N west of 77W. For the forecast, the current synoptic pattern across the region will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following passages several tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. Long period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure system, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to impact the far eastern portion of the tropical N Atlantic zone starting Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low pressure, Invest AL96, and a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday. Low pressure of 1015 mb, Invest AL95, is north of the area near 35N60W. Its associated trough extends from the low to 31N61W and to near 25N64W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection and fresh to strong south winds persist to the E of the trough mainly N of 24N between 55W and 58W. In the eastern Atlantic, another weak surface trough is analyzed from near 29N32W to 25N34W. No convection is active with this trough. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging prevails. A 1019 mb high pressure is over the western Atlantic at 29N69W. South of this feature, fresh east to southeast winds are over the waters from the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 20N and west of 60W. Slight to moderate seas prevail north of 20N and west of 61W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 5 to 8 ft seas as noted in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Winds are mainly moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned fresh to strong south winds and the convective activity N of 24N between 55W and 58W will slowly diminish through early this evening as Invest AL95 moves farther away from the forecast waters. Elsewhere, moderate to at times fresh trades, will prevail S of about 23N, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most westward across the far southern waters into the weekend. Long period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure system, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to impact the far SE portion of the area starting Sat. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC251042_C_KWBC_20260825104248_4522426-1563-TWDAT.txt ****0000007042**** AXNT20 KNHC 251042 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure is analyzed over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde islands. THe wave extends along 20W/21W and S of 20N, with a 1010 mb low centered along the wave axis near 11N21W. Disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 12N between 17W and 25W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less conducive for development by the weekend. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W south of 20N moving westward around 15 kt. Convection as described below under Monsoon Trough/ITCZ. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W south of 21N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently occurring with this wave. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W south of 21N to northern Colombia moving westward around 10 kt. No convection is presently noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N24W and westward to 12.5N35W to 11N40W and to 09N48W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 43W-47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 47W-50W, and within 30 nm of the trough between 38W-43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A relatively weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered over the central Gulf near 25N89W, and is generally producing light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, except moderate NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Slight seas of 3 ft or less prevail over the basin per buoy observations and recent satellite altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over the central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge remaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend. A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America continues to allow for moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia, with a narrow zone of strong winds along the coasts near the Gulf of Venezuela and far NE Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft with these trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas elsewhere. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is confined to south of 15N west of 80W, including some of the inland sections of Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 18N west of 77W. For the forecast, the current synoptic pattern across the region will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following passages several tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. Long period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure system, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to impact the far eastern portion of the tropical N Atlantic zone starting Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low pressure, Invest AL96, and a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday. Low pressure of 1015 mb, Invest AL95, is north of the area near 35N60W. Its associated trough extends from the low to 31N61W and to near 24N64W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection and fresh to strong south winds persist to the E of the trough N of 24N between 55W and 58W. In the eastern Atlantic, another weak surface trough is analyzed from near 29N32W to 25N34W. No convection is active with this trough. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging prevails. A 1019 mb high pressure is over the western Atlantic at 29N69W. South of this feature, fresh east to southeast winds are over the waters from the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas remain elsewhere north of 20N and west of 61W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 5 to 8 ft seas as noted in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Winds are mainly moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned fresh to strong south winds and the convective activity N of 24N between 55W and 58W will slowly diminish through early this evening as Invest AL95 moves farther away from the forecast waters. Elsewhere, moderate to at times fresh trades, will prevail S of about 23N, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most westward across the far southern waters into the weekend. Long period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure system, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to impact the far SE portion of the area starting Sat. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC251105_C_KWBC_20260825110528_31523192-1714-TWDAT.txt ****0000007060**** AXNT20 KNHC 251105 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): A tropical wave and associated area of low pressure is analyzed over the far eastern Atlantic a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde islands. THe wave extends along 20W/21W and S of 20N, with a 1010 mb low centered along the wave axis near 11N21W. Disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 12N between 17W and 25W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less conducive for development by the weekend. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W south of 20N moving westward around 15 kt. Convection as described below under Monsoon Trough/ITCZ. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W south of 21N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently occurring with this wave. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W south of 21N to northern Colombia moving westward around 10 kt. No convection is presently noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N24W and westward to 12.5N35W to 11N40W and to 09N48W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 43W-47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 47W-50W, and within 30 nm of the trough between 38W-43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A relatively weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered over the central Gulf near 25N89W, and is generally producing light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, except moderate NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Slight seas of 3 ft or less prevail over the basin per buoy observations and recent satellite altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over the central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge remaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend. A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America continues to allow for moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia, with a narrow zone of strong winds along the coasts near the Gulf of Venezuela and far NE Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft with these trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas elsewhere. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is confined to south of 15N west of 80W, including some of the inland sections of Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 18N west of 77W. For the forecast, the current synoptic pattern across the region will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following passages several tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. Long period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure system, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to impact the far eastern portion of the tropical N Atlantic zone starting Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low pressure, Invest AL96, and a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday. Low pressure of 1015 mb, Invest AL95, is north of the area near 35N60W. Its associated trough extends from the low to 31N61W and to near 24N64W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection and fresh to strong south winds persist to the E of the trough N of 24N between 55W and 58W. In the eastern Atlantic, another weak surface trough is analyzed from near 29N32W to 25N34W. No convection is active with this trough. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging prevails. A 1019 mb high center is over the western Atlantic at 29N69W. To the south of this feature, fresh east to southeast winds are over the waters from the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas remain elsewhere north of 20N and west of 61W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 5 to 8 ft seas as noted in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Winds are mainly moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned fresh to strong south winds and the convective activity N of 24N between 55W and 58W will slowly diminish through early this evening as Invest AL95 moves farther away from the forecast waters. Elsewhere, moderate to at times fresh trades, will prevail S of about 23N, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most westward across the far southern waters into the weekend. Long period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure system, Invest AL96, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to impact the far SE portion of the area starting Sat. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC251216AAA_C_KWBC_20260825121729_31523192-1719-TWDAT.txt ****0000007136**** AXNT20 KNHC 251216 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026 Updated for Special Features Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An area of low pressure centered a few hundred nautical miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands along a tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The wave extends along 20W/21W and S of 20N, with a 1010 mb low centered along the wave axis near 11N21W. Disorganized scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 12N between 17W and 25W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less conducive for development by the weekend. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W south of 20N moving westward around 15 kt. Convection as described below under Monsoon Trough/ITCZ. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W south of 21N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently occurring with this wave. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W south of 21N to northern Colombia moving westward around 10 kt. No convection is presently noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N24W and westward to 12.5N35W to 11N40W and to 09N48W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 07N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 43W-47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 47W-50W, and within 30 nm of the trough between 38W-43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A relatively weak 1017 mb high pressure is centered over the central Gulf near 25N89W, and is generally producing light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin, except moderate NE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Slight seas of 3 ft or less prevail over the basin per buoy observations and recent satellite altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over the central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge remaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend. A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between weak high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America continues to allow for moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean from the coast of Hispaniola to the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia, with a narrow zone of strong winds along the coasts near the Gulf of Venezuela and far NE Colombia. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft with these trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere from 11N to 18N, with gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas elsewhere. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is confined to south of 15N west of 80W, including some of the inland sections of Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 18N west of 77W. For the forecast, the current synoptic pattern across the region will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following passages several tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. Long period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure system, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to impact the far eastern portion of the tropical N Atlantic zone starting Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low pressure, Invest AL96, and a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday. Low pressure of 1015 mb, Invest AL95, is north of the area near 35N60W. Its associated trough extends from the low to 31N61W and to near 24N64W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection and fresh to strong south winds persist to the E of the trough N of 24N between 55W and 58W. In the eastern Atlantic, another weak surface trough is analyzed from near 29N32W to 25N34W. No convection is active with this trough. Otherwise, broad high pressure ridging prevails. A 1019 mb high center is over the western Atlantic at 29N69W. To the south of this feature, fresh east to southeast winds are over the waters from the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands to near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas remain elsewhere north of 20N and west of 61W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate from north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ between Africa and 56W, with 5 to 8 ft seas as noted in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Winds are mainly moderate and seas moderate across any remainder waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned fresh to strong south winds and the convective activity N of 24N between 55W and 58W will slowly diminish through early this evening as Invest AL95 moves farther away from the forecast waters. Elsewhere, moderate to at times fresh trades, will prevail S of about 23N, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most westward across the far southern waters into the weekend. Long period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure system, Invest AL96, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to impact the far SE portion of the area starting Sat. $$ Aguirre/JRL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC251546_C_KWBC_20260825154630_31523192-1733-TWDAT.txt ****0000006304**** AXNT20 KNHC 251546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An area of low pressure of 1009 mb is at 12N23W a few hundred miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N-14N between 21W-26W. Peak winds are near 25 kt and seas to 7 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and this system is likely to become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions could become less conducive for development by the weekend. Formation chance through 48 hours is high. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W from 06N-21N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N-14N between 21W-26W. This system is Invest AL96, which is discussed in detail above. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W south of 17N moving westward around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with this wave. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W south of 20N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently occurring with this wave. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W south of 20N to Panama moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 16N west of 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to the 1009 mb low at 12N23W, then westward to 11N41W. The ITCZ begins at 11N41W to 10N49W, where it breaks for an tropical wave, then begins again at 10N51W to coastal Guyana at 08N59W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N-14N between 21W-26W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N-12N between 29W-38W and from 08N-11N west of 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak 1017 mb high is centered over the central Gulf near 24N87W contributing toward moderate or weaker winds with seas 1-4 ft this morning. A 1015 mb at 30N86W along a trough extending from 30N86W to 28N87W is accompanied by scattered moderate convection north of 28N east of 90W. For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over the central Gulf through Wed, with the western Atlantic ridge remaining dominate over the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas into the weekend. A surface trough will generate locally fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the area and the 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean with seas 6-9 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 16N west of 80W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Winds may be near gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela at night starting tonight, and northwest of Colombia at night starting Wed night. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds will pulse at times through the week following passages several tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. Long period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure system, Invest AL96, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to impacts to the far eastern portion of the tropical N Atlantic zone starting Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low pressure, Invest AL96, and a tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday. A 1030 mb Bermuda-Azores High is centered north of our waters a 42N41W. The pressure gradient between the northward-displaced high and lower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon trough is only forcing gentle to moderate trades with seas 3-7 ft. An upper-level trough north of the Greater Antilles is forcing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection north of 22N between 54W-61W. For the forecast west of 55W, an elongated trough from north of the area to 29N63W will support showers and thunderstorms over the waters north of 22N and east of 61W through at least tonight. High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters with mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas north of 23N through the remainder of the week. Moderate to at times fresh trades, will prevail south of 23N, with slightly higher winds pulsing at times as the northern extent of tropical waves most westward across the far southern waters into the weekend. Long period northeast to east swell from an approaching low pressure system, Invest AL96, or possibly a tropical cyclone, may begin to impact the far SE portion of the area starting Sat. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################