--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-02-21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC210339_C_KWBC_20260221034037_29294990-8353-TWDAT.txt ****0000005684**** AXNT20 KNHC 210339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Feb 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0335 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat night and shift quickly across the basin through early Mon, bringing fresh to near-gale northerly winds and rough seas. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are likely offshore of Tampico and Veracruz Sun and Sun night. Winds and seas should gradually subside from NW to SE Mon through Tue in the wake of the front. Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 05N14W to 01S30W and to 01S47W. A few showers are noted near the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Gale Warning is in effect for the western and SW Gulf. Please, see the Special features section for more information. High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge westward over the Gulf region. The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Yucatan support fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 26N and between 87W and 91W, just north of the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The southerly wind flow in the western Gulf waters is lifting smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico northward, producing hazy skies W of 92W. In addition, the warmer southerly wind flow, moving across the cooler coastal waters will also cause the development of areas of dense fog with low visibilities, from the NE Mexican coast to SE Louisiana tonight into Sat morning. Dense Fog Advisories are already in effect for these coastal waters. For the forecast, an Atlantic ridge extending westward along 27N into the central Gulf will maintain moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas at the central and western Gulf through Sat evening. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night as a trough develops daily over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An expansive subtropical ridge located north of the islands supports strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. A partial scatterometer satellite pass captured peak winds to 30 kt in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong E-SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and much of the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are evident in the lee of Cuba and between Cuba and Jamaica. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted across the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic ridge along 27N and the Colombian low, will support fresh to strong trade winds in the eastern Gulf of Honduras through Sat night, and across the south-central Caribbean through Sun. These winds will reach near- gale force each night offshore of Colombia. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected for the rest of the Caribbean through Sun night. Farther east, rough seas will linger E of the Lesser Antilles through Sat night as N swell progresses across the central tropical Atlantic. A strong cold front will move through the Gulf of America this weekend and enter the northwestern Caribbean early Mon, reaching from near Haiti to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border Tue morning. Expect strong N winds and rapidly building seas behind this front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting moderate to locally fresh westerly winds and seas of 5-10 ft north of 28N and west of 45W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted south of 20N and west of 30W. Decaying NW swell is producing rough seas north of 20N and east of 35W. In the far eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas are occurring north of 20N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a narrow ridge extends from the central Atlantic along 27N to the NW Bahamas this evening, and will shift slowly eastward through the weekend, producing moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds offshore of northern Florida tonight through Sat evening. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. A strong cold front will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, with strong to near-gale NW winds and rapidly building seas behind the front through early next week. The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon morning, and from 31N60W to the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning, while weakening. The front will stall and weaken quickly from 30N55W to the central Dominican Republic on Wed. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################