--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-02-18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC180319_C_KWBC_20260218032014_29294990-8150-TWDAT.txt ****0000005411**** AXNT20 KNHC 180319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Feb 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 00N35W and to 01S49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 03N and west of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A subtropical ridge centered between the United States and Bermuda extends to the Gulf of America, supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds over the western Gulf waters and moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are noted north and west of the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf. The combination of the ridge and broad low pressure over Texas and northern Mexico associated with a trough will lead to a tightening of the pressure gradient over the western and central Gulf waters starting tonight causing moderate to fresh south return flow over those waters through early Fri evening. Looking ahead, that low pressure will pull a cold front over the NW Gulf on Sat afternoon, followed by fresh to near gale north to northeast winds expected Sat night through Sun night. Gale conditions are possible offshore Tampico on Sun and offshore Veracruz Sun afternoon and Sun night. Mariners are urged to stay up to data with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean and lower pressures in NW South America sustain strong to near gale-force NE winds off NW Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found in the north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few showers are affecting the Leeward Islands, SE Hispaniola and Jamaica. For the forecast, the combination of Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to result in fresh to strong northeast to east trades in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds may pulse to near gale-force off Colombia at night on Fri and Sat. Fresh northeast winds will pulse in the Windward Passage through Thu. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will begin to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and continue through Sat night, while trades elsewhere will generally remain moderate to fresh. Additionally, large north swell is expected to impact the tropical N Atlantic waters and the Anegada/Mona Passages beginning on Thu and likely subsiding on Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a hurricane-force extratropical low well south of Newfoundland, enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N55W and continues southwestward to 26N63W, where it becomes a stationary front to the NW Bahamas. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted ahead of the cold front to 51W and north of 24N. Moderate to locally fresh winds and rough seas are found behind these frontal boundaries. Moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate to rough seas are evident ahead of the cold front to 49W and north of 27W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge supporting moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas south and east of a line from 31N25W to the Leeward Islands. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the deep tropics near 07N45W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are present. Saharan dust is evident in the eastern Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N59W to the N Bahamas this morning will move from 28N55W to the central Bahamas Wed morning, then dissipate by Thu. Fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the cold front north of 29N will pull north of our waters by this evening. In the wake of the front, large to very large N swell will occur with 12 ft or greater seas sliding eastward north of 28N through Wed night. 8 ft seas will progress equatorward reaching 20N by Thu before diminishing on Fri. Winds will become quiescent over forecast waters from Wed through Sat, as a high pressure ridge settles in along 27N. Looking ahead, a strong cold front should emerge from the SE United States coast on Sun, followed by increasing NW winds and building seas. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC181038_C_KWBC_20260218103809_16515500-7805-TWDAT.txt ****0000007297**** AXNT20 KNHC 181038 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Feb 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 04N20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to the Equator at 30W and to below the Equator at 34W reaching to near 01S46.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 21W-26W, and from 01S to 02N between 45W and the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 37W-41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure of 1024 is centered between southeastern U.S. and Bermuda, with a ridge extending west-southwestward to the central Gulf. The gradient between it and lower pressure in the western part of the Gulf and in Texas and Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh return flow over the western Gulf waters and moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds re north and west of the Yucatan peninsula. An overnight altimeter satellite data pass indicated seas of 3 to 4 ft with these winds. Slight higher seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the Bay of Campeche, the SW Gulf and the west-central Gulf. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are over the NW Gulf and over the offshore waters of southwest Louisiana. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh southerly return flow over the western Gulf will continue into early Fri evening. Looking ahead, low pressure that is currently over the High Plains region will send a cold front to the NW Gulf on Sat afternoon, followed by fresh to near gale north to northeast winds expected Sat night through Sun night. Gale conditions are possible offshore Tampico on Sun and offshore Veracruz Sun afternoon and Sun night. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse along and near the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula from the afternoons and into the morning hours in association with the Yucatan Peninsula diurnal trough starting Thu. Mariners are urged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the south- central Caribbean and strong to near-force northeast winds offshore Colombia as seen in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass across that part of the sea. In addition, a ship reported northeast 25 kt winds at location 11N76W around 04Z. Similar winds are in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas are in the north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are in the eastern part of the sea. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Isolated showers, with the trade wind flow are present in the eastern part of the sea north of 12N and east of 68W. Similar showers are near the coast of Hispaniola and between Cuba and Jamaica. For the forecast, the gradient in place will maintain little change with the trades through the end of the week, however, the fresh to strong trades in the south-central part of the sea will expand in coverage. Winds may pulse to near gale-force off Colombia at nigh during this time. Fresh northeast winds will pulse in the Windward Passage through Thu. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will begin to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and continue through Sat night, while trades elsewhere will generally remain moderate to fresh. Large north swell is expected to impact the tropical N Atlantic waters and the Anegada/Mona Passages beginning on Thu and likely subsiding on Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from a hurricane-force extratropical low that is well south of Newfoundland, to the tropical Atlantic near 31N51W and continues southwestward to 26N63W, where it becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas. A broad upper-level trough is over the western Atlantic. Satellite imagery shows scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front, east-southeast to a line from 31N45W to 25N49W and to 22N60W. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes reveal moderate to fresh northeast to east winds west of the front to near 76W and from 23N to 28N. To the north, a 1024 mb high center is analyzed near 32N71W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 28N between 67W and 76W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft behind the front in long-perid northwest swell, except for higher seas of 10 to 15 ft north of 29N between 55W and 60W. Moderate to fresh southwest winds and mostly moderate seas are ahead of the cold front to 49W and north of 27W. A trough is analyzed from near 31N32W to 27N44W. No significant convection is presently noted with this feature. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad high pressure, with the associated gradient generally allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds southeast of a line roughly from 26N35W to 20N50W and to the northern Leeward Islands. Seas about 5 to 7 ft within this area. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are present. Saharan dust is noted in the eastern Atlantic east of about 33W. Surface observations from the Cape Verde Islands are reporting dust For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will become a weakening stationary front from 25N55W to near 23N67W by early this evening, then weaken and dissipate Thu. Fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the cold front north of 29N will shift north of 31N this morning. Behind the front, large to very large N swell will occur with 12 ft or greater seas sliding east of 55W north of 28N tonight. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will propagate southward reaching to near 20N on Thu, then shifting east of 55W on Fri while subsiding. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are expected for most of the offshore zones from this evening through Sat night as a high pressure ridge initially builds westward near 27N before it shifts southeastward Sat through Sun night in response to a frontal system that will be moving through the southeastern U.S. A strong cold front with this system is expected to push off the Georgia and NE Florida coasts on Sun, followed by increasing NW winds and building seas. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC181103_C_KWBC_20260218110418_29294990-8169-TWDAT.txt ****0000007299**** AXNT20 KNHC 181103 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Feb 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 04N20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to the Equator at 30W and to below the Equator at 34W reaching to near 01S46.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 21W-26W, and from 01S to 02N between 45W and the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 37W-41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure of 1024 is centered between southeastern U.S. and Bermuda, with a ridge extending west-southwestward to the central Gulf. The gradient between it and lower pressure in the western part of the Gulf and in Texas and Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh return flow over the western Gulf waters and moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds re north and west of the Yucatan peninsula. An overnight altimeter satellite data pass indicated seas of 3 to 4 ft with these winds. Slight higher seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the Bay of Campeche, the SW Gulf and the west-central Gulf. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are over the NW Gulf and over the offshore waters of southwest Louisiana. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh southerly return flow over the western Gulf will continue into early Fri evening. Looking ahead, low pressure that is currently over the High Plains region will send a cold front to the NW Gulf on Sat afternoon, followed by fresh to near gale north to northeast winds expected Sat night through Sun night. Gale conditions are possible offshore Tampico on Sun and offshore Veracruz Sun afternoon and Sun night. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse along and near the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula from the afternoons and into the morning hours in association with the Yucatan Peninsula diurnal trough starting Thu. Mariners are urged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the south-central Caribbean and strong to near-force northeast winds offshore Colombia as seen in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass across that part of the sea. In addition, a ship reported northeast 25 kt winds at location 11N76W around 04Z. Similar winds are in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas are in the north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are in the eastern part of the sea. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Isolated showers, with the trade wind flow are present in the eastern part of the sea north of 12N and east of 68W. Similar showers are near the coast of Hispaniola and between Cuba and Jamaica. For the forecast, the gradient in place will maintain little change with the trades through the end of the week, however, the fresh to strong trades in the south-central part of the sea will expand in coverage. Winds may pulse to near gale-force off Colombia at nigh during this time. Fresh northeast winds will pulse in the Windward Passage through Thu. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will begin to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and continue through Sat night, while trades elsewhere will generally remain moderate to fresh. Large north swell is expected to impact the tropical N Atlantic waters and the Anegada/Mona Passages beginning on Thu and likely subsiding on Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from a hurricane-force extratropical low that is well south of Newfoundland, to the tropical Atlantic near 31N51W and continues southwestward to 26N63W, where it becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas. A broad upper-level trough is over the western Atlantic. Satellite imagery shows scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front, east-southeast to a line from 31N45W to 25N49W and to 22N60W. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes reveal moderate to fresh northeast to east winds west of the front to near 76W and from 23N to 28N. To the north, a 1024 mb high center is analyzed near 32N71W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 28N between 67W and 76W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft behind the front in long-perid northwest swell, except for higher seas of 10 to 15 ft north of 29N between 55W and 60W. Moderate to fresh southwest winds and mostly moderate seas are ahead of the cold front to 49W and north of 27W. A trough is analyzed from near 31N32W to 27N44W. No significant convection is presently noted with this feature. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad high pressure, with the associated gradient generally allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds southeast of a line roughly from 26N35W to 20N50W and to the northern Leeward Islands. Seas about 5 to 7 ft within this area. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are present. Saharan dust is noted in the eastern Atlantic east of about 33W. Surface observations from the Cape Verde Islands are reporting dust. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will become a weakening stationary front from 25N55W to near 23N67W by early this evening, then weaken and dissipate Thu. Fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the cold front north of 29N will shift north of 31N this morning. Behind the front, large to very large N swell will occur with 12 ft or greater seas sliding east of 55W north of 28N tonight. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will propagate southward reaching to near 20N on Thu, then shifting east of 55W on Fri while subsiding. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are expected for most of the offshore zones from this evening through Sat night as a high pressure ridge initially builds westward near 27N before it shifts southeastward Sat through Sun night in response to a frontal system that will be moving through the southeastern U.S. A strong cold front with this system is expected to push off the Georgia and NE Florida coasts on Sun, followed by increasing NW winds and building seas. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC181114_C_KWBC_20260218111518_29294990-8170-TWDAT.txt ****0000007298**** AXNT20 KNHC 181114 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Feb 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 04N20W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to the Equator at 30W and to below the Equator at 34W reaching to near 01S46.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 21W-26W, and from 01S to 02N between 45W and the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 37W-41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure of 1024 is centered between southeastern U.S. and Bermuda, with a ridge extending west-southwestward to the central Gulf. The gradient between it and lower pressure in the western part of the Gulf and in Texas and Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh return flow over the western Gulf waters and moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds re north and west of the Yucatan peninsula. An overnight altimeter satellite data pass indicated seas of 3 to 4 ft with these winds. Slight higher seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the Bay of Campeche, the SW Gulf and the west-central Gulf. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are over the NW Gulf and over the offshore waters of southwest Louisiana. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh southerly return flow over the western Gulf will continue into early Fri evening. Looking ahead, low pressure that is currently over the High Plains region will send a cold front to the NW Gulf on Sat afternoon, followed by fresh to near gale north to northeast winds expected Sat night through Sun night. Gale conditions are possible offshore Tampico on Sun and offshore Veracruz Sun afternoon and Sun night. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will pulse along and near the northern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula from the afternoons and into the morning hours in association with the Yucatan Peninsula diurnal trough starting Thu. Mariners are urged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the south-central Caribbean and strong to near-force northeast winds offshore Colombia as seen in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass across that part of the sea. In addition, a ship reported northeast 25 kt winds at location 11N76W around 04Z. Similar winds are in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas are in the north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are in the eastern part of the sea. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Isolated showers, with the trade wind flow are present in the eastern part of the sea north of 12N and east of 68W. Similar showers are near the coast of Hispaniola and between Cuba and Jamaica. For the forecast, the gradient in place will maintain little change with the trades through the end of the week, however, the fresh to strong trades in the south-central part of the sea will expand in coverage. Winds may pulse to near gale-force off Colombia at nigh during this time. Fresh northeast winds will pulse in the Windward Passage through Thu. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will begin to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and continue through Sat night, while trades elsewhere will generally remain moderate to fresh. Large north swell is expected to impact the tropical N Atlantic waters and the Anegada/Mona Passages beginning on Thu and likely subsiding on Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from a hurricane-force extratropical low that is well south of Newfoundland, to the tropical Atlantic near 31N51W and continues southwestward to 26N63W, where it becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas. A broad upper-level trough is over the western Atlantic. Satellite imagery shows scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms out ahead of the cold front, east-southeast to a line from 31N45W to 25N49W and to 22N60W. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes reveal moderate to fresh northeast to east winds west of the front to near 76W and from 23N to 28N. To the north, a 1024 mb high center is analyzed near 32N71W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are north of 28N between 67W and 76W. Seas are 8 to 12 ft behind the front in long-perid northwest swell, except for higher seas of 10 to 15 ft north of 29N between 55W and 60W. Moderate to fresh southwest winds and mostly moderate seas are ahead of the cold front to 49W and north of 27W. A trough is analyzed from near 31N32W to 27N44W. No significant convection is presently noted with this feature. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad high pressure, with the associated gradient generally allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds southeast of a line roughly from 26N35W to 20N50W and to the northern Leeward Islands. Seas about 5 to 7 ft within this area. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are present. Saharan dust is noted in the eastern Atlantic east of about 33W. Surface observations from the Cape Verde Islands are reporting dust. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will become a weakening stationary front from 25N55W to near 23N67W by early this evening, then weaken and dissipate Thu. Fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the cold front north of 29N will shift north of 31N this morning. Behind the front, large to very large N swell will occur with 12 ft or greater seas sliding east of 55W north of 28N tonight. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will propagate southward reaching to near 20N on Thu, then shifting east of 55W on Fri while subsiding. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are expected for most of the offshore zones from this evening through Sat night as a high pressure ridge initially builds westward near 27N before it shifts southeastward Sat through Sun night in response to a frontal system that will be moving through the southeastern U.S. A strong cold front with this system is expected to push off the Georgia and NE Florida coasts on Sun, followed by increasing NW winds and building seas. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC181438_C_KWBC_20260218143910_16515500-7819-TWDAT.txt ****0000005101**** AXNT20 KNHC 181438 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Feb 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is mostly over west Africa. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 05N between 17W and 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge extends from the western Atlantic to the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh S winds and 3-5 seas across the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere with 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through Fri as ridging prevails over the eastern basin. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the south-central basin, north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night through Fri as a trough develops daily over the region. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to move into the northern Gulf this weekend and sweep over the basin through early next week. Gale force winds and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Tampico and Veracruz Sun into Mon, and widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between 1025 mb high pressure over Bermuda and 1011 mb low pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas off the coast of Colombia, along with fresh trade winds and 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere across the central Caribbean. Moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. No major thunderstorm activity is observed currently, although isolated showers are likely over the northeast Caribbean and off Panama. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south- central Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low. Winds may reach near-gale force each night offshore of northern Colombia, and rough seas are expected near and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE winds and occasionally rough seas will occur in the Gulf of Honduras this afternoon into early Sun. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the rest of the basin through the forecast period. Looking ahead, rough seas may develop east of the Lesser Antilles late this week as a N swell progresses through the central tropical Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from a hurricane-force extratropical low that is well south of Newfoundland, to the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and continues southwestward to 26N60W, where it becomes a stationary front to the central Bahamas. Thunderstorm activity has ceased along the front, although showers are likely ongoing. A broad ridge is building in the wake of the front, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure area west of Bermuda near 31N68W. Moderate to fresh are active near the front west of 65W, with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere west of the front. Rough to very rough combined seas primarily in NW swell persist west of the front to 70W as well, with wave heights as high sas 15 ft near 31N55W. Farther east, a ridge extends from high pressure near the Azores southwestward to roughly 22N55W. Gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas are along the ridge axis, with moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted southeast of the ridge over the remainder of the Atlantic discussion area. Saharan dust is noted in the eastern Atlantic east of about 35W. Surface observations from the Cape Verde Islands are reporting dust. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas occurring east of 75W will prevail today, in the wake of a weakening front extending from the central tropical Atlantic through the central Bahamas. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft are expected north of 27N and east of 62W through late tonight. Seas will slowly subside from west to east tonight into early Fri. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will continue through tonight over the central basin as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to push offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, and increasing winds and rapidly building seas are expected in the wake of the front through early next week. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################