--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC030504_C_KWBC_20260703050429_32440682-4335-TWDAT.txt ****0000005634**** AXNT20 KNHC 030504 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0503 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21.5W, south of 16N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 11N between 20W and 30W. Isolated scattered convection is found from 06.5N to 12N between the wave axis and 27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has been repositioned based on tropical wave diagnostics and visible satellite imagery and is now along 59W, south of 19N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 52W and 65W. The western Caribbean tropical wave has moved to the eastern Pacific. More information about this wave can be found in the Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean (TWDEP). ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16.5W and continues southwestward to 08N33W. The ITCZ extends from 08N33W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 12N between 28W and 51W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic southwestward across the SE U.S. and the northern Gulf waters, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight seas across most of the basin, except for locally N to NE fresh winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Divergence aloft is supporting a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Bay of Campeche and Mexican coastal waters south of Tampico. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern Florida are moving westward and reaching the coasts between Tampa Bay and Naples. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will dominate the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. Gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low has tightened behind a tropical wave moving into the eastern Pacific. This pressure gradient is supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 8-10 ft in the central to SW Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Convection over the eastern Carribbean can be found in the Tropical Waves section above. Scattered thunderstorms are along the monsoon trough S of 11N across the coastal waters of western Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica. Afternoon convection over Cuba has drifted southward and is now affecting the waters south of the island as it weakens. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Fri morning, then diminish slightly through the weekend. Expect winds to reach near- gale force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean tonight through Fri night as an upper- level trough sinks across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front along about 31N, extends from 55W to a 1017 mb low pressure near 31.5N73W, then becomes a surface trough that extends from 31N74W to Freeport, The Bahamas, northern adjacent waters. Low level convergence south of the front, and along the trough are aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection between the NW Bahamas and SE Florida, and S of the front to 27.5N between 44W and 67W. A 1033 mb high pressure system centered NE of the Azores extends a ridge southwestward. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found south of 22N and west of 35W to the SE Bahamas. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present north of 16N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough, remnants of a stationary front, extending from a 1017 mb low near 31N73W to Freeport northern adjacent waters, will gradually dissipate tonight while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly westward into central Florida through early next week. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to strong winds each late afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC031056_C_KWBC_20260703105732_32440682-4354-TWDAT.txt ****0000004638**** AXNT20 KNHC 031056 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is W of the Cape Verde Islands near 25W, extending from 05N to 16N, and moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 20W and 30W. A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles this morning. The axis of the wave extends from inland E Venezuela to 19N and is near 61W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 54W and 68W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N35W. The ITCZ extends from 08N35W to 07N56W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 13N E of 20W, from 06N to 10N between 30W and 36W, and from 05N to 09N between 37W and 54W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic SW across the SE U.S. and to the central Gulf waters, supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas across most of the basin, except for gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the Bay of Campeche associated with a surface trough. Aside from the moderate winds, the surface trough is generating heavy showers and scattered tstms in the SW Gulf. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will dominate the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. Gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8-10 ft in the central to SW Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The E Pacific extension of the monsoon continue to support scattered showers over the Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia offshore waters. Shower activity is also ongoing in the E basin as a tropical wave moves across the Lesser Antilles this morning. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Tue night. Expect winds to reach near-gale force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the E Caribbean through tonight as a tropical wave moves across the region. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough, remnants of a statonary front, extends from a 1017 mb low pressure near 31N73W to Freeport northern adjacent waters. Only isolated showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough. Otherwise, the Azores extends a ridge southwestward across the subtropical Atlantic waters, thus supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds across the region and moderate seas, except slight seas W of 65W. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will gradually dissipate today while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly westward into central Florida through early next week. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to strong winds each late afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC032258_C_KWBC_20260703225907_9109880-7438-TWDAT.txt ****0000005895**** AXNT20 KNHC 032258 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Jul 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is W of the Cape Verde Islands near 30W, extending from 03N to 17N, and moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 06N to 11N between 29W and 34W. A tropical wave is across the eastern Caribbean, south of 19N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 61W and 70W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16.5N16.5W and continues southwestward to 08N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N34W to 05.5N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident within 60 nm N and 120 nm S of the ITCZ between 34W and 54W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure extends a ridge across the western Atlantic SW across the SE U.S. and to the central Gulf waters, anchored by a 1019 mb high in the central Gulf. This supports light to gentle winds and slight seas across most of the basin, except for gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the Bay of Campeche associated with a surface trough. Aside from the moderate winds, the surface trough in the Bay of Campeche is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the SW Gulf, while scattered showers extend across the NE Gulf. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant tropical moisture accompanying the tropical wave along 65W has encountered favorable upper level conditions produce by an elongated middle to upper-level low pressure just N of the Greater Antilles to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the eastern Caribbean east of 70W. This upper level feature is also supporting strong scattered afternoon convection across Hispaniola and Cuba. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low continue to support fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8-11 ft in the central to SW Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean away from areas of convection associated with the tropical wave near 65W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft there. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The E Pacific extension of the monsoon continues to support scattered strong convection over the waters near the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Tue night. Expect winds to reach near- gale force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean tonight accompanying the tropical wave along 65W. The wave and its associated moisture will reach Hispaniola and the central Caribbean waters on Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening frontal boundary continues to meander just north of the area along 32N-33N between 57W and 73W. A surface trough, remnants of a stationary front, extends from a 1018 mb low pressure near 32N73W to the SE FL coast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are seen along and near the trough axis, while scattered showers and thunderstorms previal across much of the central and northwestern Atlantic between the stalled front and 27N, from 46W to 72W, and focused along another surface trough from 31N66W to 29N60W to 30N56W. A middle to upper-level low north of the Dominican Republic is also aiding in the development of strong scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Hispaniola and Cuba. Otherwise, the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward across the subtropical Atlantic waters, thus supporting mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the waters S of 20N. Fresh to locally strong trades prevail across areas from 10N to 15N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail across much of the remaining Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough across the NW waters to SE Florida will gradually dissipate tonight while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build westward into central Florida through early next week. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################