--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC040616_C_KWBC_20260804061659_47448518-65-TWDAT.txt ****0000005203**** AXNT20 KNHC 040616 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Aug 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave emerged from W Africa earlier tonight. The wave axis extends from 05N to 16N, and is moving west at approximately at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate convection extends from 05N to 15N between 14W and 23W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to 19N with axis nearn 37W, moving west at approximately at 5-10 kt. There is no convection in association with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 73W, extending southward from 18N, and moving westward at 15 kt. The wave continues to generate scattered heavy showers over portions of both Venezuela and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of W Africa near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 10N34W to 08N41W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave E of the Cape Verde Islands, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 38W and 48W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Recent scatterometer data confirms a center of high pressure over the E Gulf near 24N87W, which has a pressure of 1015 mb. This is supporting light to gentle variable winds across the Gulf waters N of 23N and E of 94W. In the Bay of the Campeche, a surface trough is generating some showers and supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds. Over the far western Gulf, W of 94W, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along Mexico supports moderate SE to S winds over the NW basin. Seas are slight to 3 ft basin-wide. For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle winds and slight seas into the upcoming weekend. Pulses of fresh winds will occur off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally strong Wed night, along with moderate seas. Thunderstorms will prevail into Wed in the northeast basin as a cold front settles over the Florida Panhandle and a mid-and upper-level trough sets up over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between the Bermuda High, of 1025 mb located near 34N57W, and lower pressure over the Caribbean due to the passage of a tropical wave and low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Seas in this region are rough to 10 ft. Over the E and NW basin, moderate to fresh trades prevail along with moderate seas. Scattered heavy showers are ongoing in the lee side of Cuba and adjacent waters and the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin into next weekend, with rough seas there. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh winds will pulse through the Windward Passage at times. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds ands seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough across the eastern United States supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the western Atlantic, especially west of 72W. Meanwhile, an upper-level low centered near 27N55W is producing a few showers north of 22N and between 43W and 70W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found off northern Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds and moderate seas are evident north of 20N and west of 30W. In the far NE Atlantic, fresh to strong N-NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the water passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong SW winds offshore NE Florida will continue tonight before diminishing as high pressure builds west toward the region. An upper-level trough along the eastern coast of U.S. will prolong scattered thunderstorms offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas early this week. Elsewhere, locally strong trades will continue to pulse each night offshore Hispaniola. A low level trough will likely bring fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas from east to west across the central waters by mid-week, reaching the NW waters by the end of the week. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC040624CCA_C_KWBC_20260804062459_47448518-66-TWDAT.txt ****0000005128**** AXNT20 KNHC 040624 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Aug 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave emerged from W Africa earlier tonight. The wave axis extends from 05N to 16N, and is moving west at approximately at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate convection extends from 05N to 15N between 14W and 23W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to 19N with axis nearn 37W, moving west at approximately at 5-10 kt. There is no convection in association with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 73W, extending southward from 18N, and moving westward at 15 kt. The wave continues to generate scattered heavy showers over portions of both Venezuela and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of W Africa near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 10N34W to 08N41W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 08N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave E of the Cape Verde Islands, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 38W and 48W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Recent scatterometer data confirms a center of high pressure over the E Gulf near 24N87W, which has a pressure of 1015 mb. This is supporting light to gentle variable winds across the Gulf waters N of 23N and E of 94W. In the Bay of the Campeche, a surface trough is generating some showers and supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds. Over the far western Gulf, W of 94W, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along Mexico supports moderate SE to S winds over the NW basin. Seas are slight to 3 ft basin-wide. For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle winds and slight seas into the upcoming weekend. Pulses of fresh winds will occur off the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally strong Wed night, along with moderate seas. Thunderstorms will prevail into Wed in the northeast basin as a cold front settles over the Florida Panhandle and a mid-and upper-level trough sets up over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between the Bermuda High, of 1025 mb located near 34N57W, and lower pressure over the Caribbean due to the passage of a tropical wave and low pressure over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin as indicated by recent scatterometer data. Seas in this region are rough to 10 ft. Over the E and NW basin, moderate to fresh trades prevail along with moderate seas. Scattered heavy showers are ongoing in the lee side of Cuba and adjacent waters and the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin into next weekend, with rough seas there. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh winds will pulse through the Windward Passage at times. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds ands seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW N Atlantic, including the Florida seaboard, Great Bahama Bank and Bahamas offshore waters W of 73W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are offshore NE Florida ahead of a weak frontal boundary N of the area and a prefrontal trough. Moderate to fresh trades are ongoing across the offshores between 55W and 65W as well as off northern Hispaniola. In the far NE Atlantic, fresh to strong N-NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the water passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong SW winds offshore NE Florida will continue tonight before diminishing as high pressure builds west toward the region. An upper-level trough along the eastern coast of U.S. will prolong scattered thunderstorms offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas early this week. Elsewhere, locally strong trades will continue to pulse each night offshore Hispaniola. A low level trough will likely bring fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas from east to west across the central waters by mid-week, reaching the NW waters by the end of the week. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC040941_C_KWBC_20260804094202_47448518-76-TWDAT.txt ****0000004467**** AXNT20 KNHC 040941 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Aug 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An east Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W from 05N to 16N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 15W and 23W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W from 05N to 19N, moving west at around 10 kt. There is no convection in association with this wave at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 74W, from Haiti to Colombia, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the Windward Passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 10N32W to 08N41W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 08N59W. Convection in the vicinity is primarily associated with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave and is described in the above section. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 24N87W, supporting light to gentle winds across most of the basin. Convection has dissipated in association with a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche, but moderate E to SE winds continue E of the boundary in the eastern Bay. Seas are slight to 3 ft basin-wide. For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle winds and slight seas into the upcoming weekend. Pulses of fresh winds will occur of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally strong Wed night, along with moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between the Bermuda High, of 1025 mb, centered near 34N57W, and lower pressure over southern Caribbean due to the passage of a tropical wave and a low center over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin. Seas in this region are rough to 10 ft. Over the E and NW basin, moderate to fresh trades prevail along with moderate seas. Broad lift associated with an upper level trough and deep tropical moisture are aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection on the lee side of Cuba and adjacent waters and the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin into the weekend, with rough seas there. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds ands seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft supports scattered moderate convection over the SW N Atlantic, including the Florida seaboard, Great Bahama Bank, and Bahamas offshore waters W of 73W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed farther east from 24N to 27N between 50W and 60W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. Fresh SW winds are offshore northern Florida to the SE of a stalled front. Fresh trades are present offshore Hispaniola, and in a zone from 22N to 28N between 50W and 65W. In the far NE Atlantic, strong N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the water passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh SW winds offshore NE Florida will diminish today as high pressure builds west toward the region. A mid- and upper-level trough along the SE U.S. coast will keep scattered thunderstorms ongoing offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas into Wed. Locally strong trades will continue pulsing offshore Hispaniola. A westward moving trough will pass north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into mid-week, then approach the Bahamas by late week, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC041630_C_KWBC_20260804163104_47448518-100-TWDAT.txt ****0000004497**** AXNT20 KNHC 041630 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Aug 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1627 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An east Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W from 05N to 14.5N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 17W and 29W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W from 05N to 19N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. There is no convection in association with this wave at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 75.5W, from eastern Cuba to Colombia, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the Windward Passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W and continues southwestward to 07N46W. The ITCZ extends from 07N46W to 09N58.5W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 07N to 11N between 40.5W and 47W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1016 mb high pressure is centered near 27N87W, supporting light to gentle winds across most of the basin. Convection has dissipated in association with a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche, however, moderate E to SE winds continue over the area. Seas are slight to 4 ft basin-wide. For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle winds and slight seas into the upcoming weekend. Pulses of fresh winds will occur of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally strong Wed night, along with moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between the Bermuda High, of 1025 mb, centered near 34N59W, and lower pressures over southern Caribbean due to the passage of a tropical wave and a low center over NW Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the south-central basin. Seas in this region are rough to 9 ft. Over the E and NW basin, moderate to locally fresh trades prevail along with moderate seas. Broad lift associated with an upper level trough and deep tropical moisture are aiding in the development of isolated to scattered moderate convection from 10N to 16N and west of 78.5W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin into the weekend, with rough seas there, near gale force at times. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds ands seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid to upper lever trough supports scattered moderate convection over the SW N Atlantic, including the Florida seaboard, Great Bahama Bank, and Bahamas offshore waters W of 74W. Scattered moderate convection has also developed farther east from 21.5N to 29N between 65.5W and 71W. Similar convection is also present from 21N to 28N between 50W and 62W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. Moderate S to SW winds are offshore northern Florida to 72W. Fresh trades are present offshore Hispaniola, and in a zone from 23.5N to 28N between 48W and 61W. In the far NE Atlantic, strong to near-gale N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the water passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned mid to upper level trough along the SE U.S. coast will keep scattered thunderstorms ongoing offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas into Wed. Locally strong trades will continue pulsing offshore Hispaniola to near the Windward Passage. A westward moving trough will pass north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola into mid-week, then approach the Bahamas by late week before shifting west of the area, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################