--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC020432_C_KWBC_20260702043247_9109880-7310-TWDAT.txt ****0000004988**** AXNT20 KNHC 020432 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Jul 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0431 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 19W, from 02N to 19W, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 12 N between 17.5W and 24W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 02N to 15N with axis near 50W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 46W and 55W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 80.5W, S of 20N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W and continues southwestward to 08N36W. The ITCZ extends from 08N36W to 07N47W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 10N between 25W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Afternoon scattered moderate convection over Florida has moved over the eastern Gulf as it weakens. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is occurring over the Bay of Campeche south of 19N. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient is leading to light to gentle winds and slight seas through the basin, except for moderate NE winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the weak ridge will dominate the basin through the forecast period. A weakening surface trough in the NE Gulf will gradually dissipate through Thu, with some showers and isolated thunderstorms persisting along the trough. Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sun night due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a strong subtropical ridge north of the Azores extends a ridge southwestward to the Bahamas, and will generally remain in place through the weekend. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Fri morning, then diminish slightly through Sun. Expect winds to reach near gale-force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean Thu night through Fri night as an upper-level trough sinks across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas. Isolated showers are found along the trough axis. Another weak trough is supporting scattered showers north of 28N between 49W and 62W. The Azores High extends a ridge across the remainder of the subtropical Atlantic waters. Winds across the waters S of 22N are moderate to fresh with moderate seas to 6 ft. N of 17N and E of 35W, a tighter pressure gradient with lower pressures over NW Africa is leading to fresh to locally strong NE winds along with rough seas to 10 ft, including the Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough that extends from a 1014 mb low near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas will gradually dissipate through Thu while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly westward into central Florida through the weekend. This pattern will support moderate to locally fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to locally strong winds each late afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. $$ KRV --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC020944_C_KWBC_20260702094550_9109880-7329-TWDAT.txt ****0000004457**** AXNT20 KNHC 020944 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jul 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0925 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W, south of 16N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N and east of 27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 12N between 45W and 58W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Western Sahara near 23N16W and continues southwestward to 07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 06N48W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 10N and between 27W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak high pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight seas across the basin. Divergence aloft is producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. Gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge centered north of the islands and lower pressures in northern Colombia supported fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and seas of 6-11 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the lee of Cuba and off Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Fri morning, then diminish slightly through Sun. Expect winds to reach near gale-force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean Thu night through Fri night as an upper-level trough sinks across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1034 mb high pressure system centered north of the Azores extends a ridge southwestward to the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found south of 22N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present north of 20N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. A surface trough extends from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and a few showers are evident in the NW Bahamas and off SE Florida. Similar convection is occurring north of 27N and between 50W and 62W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will gradually dissipate today while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly westward into central Florida through early next week. This pattern will support moderate to locally fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to locally strong winds each late afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. $$ Delgado --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC021652_C_KWBC_20260702165223_32440682-4302-TWDAT.txt ****0000004672**** AXNT20 KNHC 021652 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jul 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 21W, south of 16N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N and east of 24W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 09N to 12N between 51W and 57W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring S of 12N and W of 80W, likely enhanced by the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough extending through the region. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N17W and continues southwestward to 06.5N35W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N35W to 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 11N and between 24W and 42W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak high pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight seas across the basin. Divergence aloft is producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche as well as the NE Gulf. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will dominate the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. Gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Any convection in the SW Caribbean is described in the Tropical Waves section above. A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge across the Atlantic and lower pressures in northern Colombia supports fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and seas of 8-12 ft in the central to SW Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Fri morning, then diminish slightly through the weekend. Expect winds to reach near-gale force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean Thu night through Fri night as an upper- level trough sinks across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas, aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection between the NW Bahamas and SE Florida. Similar convection is occurring north of 27N and between 50W and 65W. A 1034 mb high pressure system centered NE of the Azores extends a ridge southwestward to the waters east of the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found south of 24N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present north of 20N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extends from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas and will gradually dissipate today while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly westward into central Florida through early next week. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to strong winds each late afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC022304_C_KWBC_20260702230525_32440682-4320-TWDAT.txt ****0000005787**** AXNT20 KNHC 022304 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2220 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 16N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 11N between 20W and 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 13.5N between 53W and 61W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W-85W, south of 20N and extending into the tropical eastern Pacific, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is along the monsoon trough near the coast of Costa Rica, and extends ahead of the wave across Central America and into the adjacent Pacific waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16.5W and continues southwestward to 06.5N35W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N35W to 06N45W to 9.5N53W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06.5N to 12N E of 19W and into western Africa, and from 06N to 10N and between 30W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic southwestward across the SE U.S. and the northern Gulf waters, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight seas across the entire basin. Divergence aloft is supporting a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Bay of Campeche and Mexican coastal waters south of Tampico. Similar activity is also noted weakening across the NE Gulf. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern Florida are moving westward and reaching the coasts between Tampa Bay and Naples. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will dominate the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. Gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure across the NE Atlantic extends southwestward through 30N39W and then west-southwestward to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient across the basin has tightened behind a tropical wave move moving into Central America, and supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 8-11 ft in the central to SW Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring ahead of a tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles, and are weakening as they cross the islands and encounter SW wind shear. Scattered thunderstorms are along the monsoon trough S of 10N across the coastal waters of western Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Fri morning, then diminish slightly through the weekend. Expect winds to reach near-gale force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean tonight through Fri night as an upper-level trough sinks across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening front remains stationary along about 31N, from 55W to 1017 mb low pressure near 31.5N73W, then becomes a surface trough extends from 31N74W to the upper Florida Keys. Low level convergence south of the front, and along the trough are aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection between the NW Bahamas and SE Florida, and S of the front to 28N between 47W and 72W. A 1033 mb high pressure system centered NE of the Azores extends a ridge southwestward through 30N39W then west- southwestward to the waters east of the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found south of 22N and west of 35W to the SE Bahamas. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present north of 20N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extending from 31.5N73W to the Upper Florida Keys will gradually dissipate tonight while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly from the central Atlantic westward into central Florida through early next week. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to strong winds each late afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################