--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC170500_C_KWBC_20260517050110_32440682-381-TWDAT.txt ****0000004822**** AXNT20 KNHC 170500 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun May 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A broad eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 15.5.W from 14N southward, and moving westward at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 03S to 11N and east of 26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45.5W from 11N southward, and moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen near the central part of the wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70.5W from south of Dominican Republic into western Venezuela. This wave is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found over northwest Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then curves southwestward to 03N28W. The ITCZ extends from 03N28W to 00N41W. Convection near the area is covered in the Tropical Waves section above. Convergent winds north of the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms in the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A modest surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to the western Gulf. This feature is supporting light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas for the eastern half of the Gulf. Fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present off the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate with locally fresh SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf through the middle of next week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf into early next week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Also expect fresh to strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings into next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for additional weather in the southwest Caribbean. A tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge near 24N and a 1005 mb low pressure over far northwestern Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in the central, and part of the southeastern basin. Fresh to strong E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds with 2 to 5 ft seas exist in the lee of Cuba and north Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Tue, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters through Mon night, then begin to subside. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N59W to the central Bahamas. Isolated moderate convection is occurring up to 100 nm along either side of this feature. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident near the aforementioned surface trough, north of 20N and west of 60W. Farther east, a broad Atlantic Ridge stretching southwestward from a 1031 mb Azores High to the western Atlantic is maintaining gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 26N between 35W and 60W. To the south, moderate to fresh NE to E trades with 6 to 9 ft seas dominate from 04N to 26N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and occasionally rough seas with E swell through Sun north of the Leeward Islands. A weak trough extending from 31N62W to the Bahamas will dissipate overnight, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place through the middle of next week. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC171013_C_KWBC_20260517101346_9109880-3406-TWDAT.txt ****0000004154**** AXNT20 KNHC 171013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun May 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 17W from 14N southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is S of 10N and E of 26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 11N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave has dissipated overnight. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from S of Haiti to the Colombia-Venezuela border, moving W at around 15 kt. Most associated convection is inland over Venezuela and Colombia, but scattered moderate convection has developed early this morning in the Windward Passage and between Hispaniola and Turks and Caicos. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then curves southwestward to 03N28W. The ITCZ extends from 03N28W to 01N42W. Convection near the area is covered in the Tropical Waves section above. Convergent winds north of the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate convection in the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A modest surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to the western Gulf. This feature is supporting mainly gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas for the eastern half of the Gulf. In the western Gulf, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Texas is leading to moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf through mid-week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Also expect fresh to strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for information on convection in the basin. A tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge along 30N and a 1006 mb low pressure over far northern Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong NE to E winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in the central and part of the southeastern basin. Fresh to strong E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are noted at the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Tue night, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into Tue, then begin to subside. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends SE from 31N59W to the SE Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection extends up to 150 nm N of this boundary. Otherwise, broad ridging anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 33N30W dominates. This is inducing gentle winds and moderate seas N of 27N, with mainly E winds and seas between 20N and 27N, then fresh trades and rough seas S of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and occasionally rough seas with E swell into tonight north of the Leeward Islands. A weak trough extending from 31N60W to the Bahamas will dissipate today, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place through mid- week. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC171527_C_KWBC_20260517152751_9109880-3424-TWDAT.txt ****0000004797**** AXNT20 KNHC 171527 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun May 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is around 17W/18W from 14N southward, moving very slowly. There is some indication that this wave may need to be repositioned in the next day or so when additional data becomes available. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 13W and 20W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 12N southward to northern Brazil, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 48W and 52W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from 19N southward across eastern Jamaica to the northern coast of Colombia. This tropical wave was previously analyzed to the east, but the latest observations, satellite imagery, and analysis tools indicates that it is near 77W, and is likely to get absorbed or merge its vorticity with that of the Colombian/Panamanian low. There is no deep convection noted over water, but active convection is present over portions of northern and NW Colombia, possibly enhanced by this feature. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then curves southwestward to 05N21W. The ITCZ extends from 05N21W to 05N36W to 03.5N49.5W. Other than the convection described above in the Tropical Waves section, scattered moderate is noted from 01N to 06N between 26W and 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A modest surface ridge reaches southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to the western Gulf. This feature is supporting mainly gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas for the eastern half of the Gulf. In the western Gulf, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over Texas is leading to moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend a ridge over and just north of the Gulf through mid-week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Also expect fresh to strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between a surface ridge along 31N and a 1007 mb low pressure over western Panama is sustaining fresh to strong NE to E winds and 7 to 10 ft seas in the central and part of the southwestern basin, from 10N to 16N between 70W and 82W. Fresh E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are noted at the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, except more tranquil conditions across the approach to the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Tue night, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Rough seas can be expected in the central Caribbean through Tuesday night as well. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into Tue, then begin to subside. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends SE from 31N59W to near the SE and Central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection extends up to 240 nm on either side of this boundary. Otherwise, broad ridging anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 33N32W dominates. Mainly gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the waters north of 29N between 32W and 78W and with 3 to 5 ft seas. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the remainder of the waters, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in N to NE swell south of 23N and east of 62W, and 4 to 7 ft seas in easterly swells elsewhere south of 29N. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and occasionally rough seas with E swell into tonight mainly east of the Leeward Islands. A weak frontal remnant trough extending from 31N59W to the Bahamas will dissipate today, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place through mid-week. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################