--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC090611_C_KWBC_20260509061216_9109880-2866-TWDAT.txt ****0000005345**** AXNT20 KNHC 090611 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat May 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...Caribbean Gale Warning... A tight pressure gradient between a 1018 mb high over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds with rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through midweek next week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. During the nighttime hours tonight through Mon night, these winds are expected to peak at near-gale to gale-force off Barranquilla. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, south of 11N with axis near 42W, moving west at 5 kt. There is no deep convection associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 02S30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present offshore Liberia to 15W. Scattered modereate convection is elsewhere from 06S to 05N between 19W and 39W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weakening stationary front extends westward from the Florida Big Bend area to the middle Texas coast. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms linger near the boundary. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong NE to E winds N of the frontal boundary over the NE basin. Scatterometer data also show fresh SE winds offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula associated with a surface trough moving into the E Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a weak 1015 mb high pressure centered near 27N83W is supporting moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas elsewhere ahead of the front. For the forecast, from late tonight through Sat, the entire front across the northern Gulf will lift northward as a warm front. Afterward, the ridge should build back across the Gulf from the east. Winds will pulse to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sun night. Looking ahead, another cold front might move into the northern Gulf waters late Sun, and reach from central Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late Mon, followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad high pressure north of the Caribbean and lower pressure in the deep tropics result in fresh easterly trade winds over the central and portions of the SW Caribbean, except for strong to near gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, including offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are also ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras and offshore Belize. Seas basin-wide are moderate, except rough with the strong to near gales offshore Colombia. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over northern Colombia will continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds with rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through midweek next week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. During the nighttime hours tonight through Sun night, these winds are expected to reach gale- force off NW Colombia. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale E winds and rough seas are also anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends southwestward from near Bermuda to NE Florida. A few showers linger near the boundary. Over the E subtropical Atlantic, the tail of a cold front weakens across the Canary Islands to about 29N34W. The remainder subtropical waters are under the influence of a broad ridge with a 1018 mb center SE of Bermuda near 28N59W. Winds with these features are moderate or weaker, except for fresh W to NW winds N of the Canary Islands and NNE winds of the same magnitude between the Cape Verde Islands and W Africa. Seas are slight near the Bahamas and moderate elsewhere, except rough to 10 ft near the Canary Islands due to the passage of the front. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually weaken through Sat as the cold front portion north of our area shifts eastward. A stronger cold front is expected to follow a similar path Mon through Tue, followed by fresh to strong winds and rough seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible near both fronts. Meanwhile, a 1018 mb high over the western Atlantic near 27N62W will support fresh to locally strong winds off northern Hispaniola Sat through Mon. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################