--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-22 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC220602_C_KWBC_20260722060220_32440682-5936-TWDAT.txt ****0000007130**** AXNT20 KNHC 220602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jul 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Bertha is centered near 29.4N 87.7W at 22/0300 UTC or 110 nm WSW of Panama City Florida, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft on the E semicircle of the center. Bertha remains a sheared tropical storm. The low-level center is exposed, with bursts of deep convection displaced to the SW semicircle by strong shear. The convection consists of numerous moderate to scattered strong convection covering the waters from 24N to 29N between 86W and 93W. Bertha is moving toward the west near 6 kt, and a generally westward motion is expected Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is W of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis along 33W from 09N to 19W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Dry air in the wave environment is limiting convection to scattered moderate from 11N to 15N between 25W and 31W. A tropical wave is along 50W from 08N to 22N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited to isolated showers within 240 nm west of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W, and continues southwestward to 10N28W and to 08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 14N between the coast of W Africa and 19W. Similar convective activity is noted from 03N to 09N between 29W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Bertha located in the NE Gulf. Tropical Storm Bertha is near 29.4N 87.7W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving west at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 995 mb. South of the sheared convection from Bertha, a weak ridge S of 25N and anchored by a 1015 mb high near 23N91W dominates the southern half of the Gulf waters. The gradient of pressure between the ridge and a surface trough inland Yucatan, supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Bay of Campeche. Over the NW Gulf, moderate to strong SW to W winds associated with Bertha are present, being the strongest winds near 90W or south of Louisiana. In the Florida Straits, winds are moderate from the SE. Otherwise, S of 26N and W of 92W, seas are slight. For the forecast, Bertha will begin to gradually weaken as it moves to near 29.4N 88.6W Wed morning, then inland to near 29.4N 90.2W Wed evening with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Bertha is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression near 29.3N 95.0W Thu evening, move inland to near 29.5N 97.0W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri evening. Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. In the wake of Bertha, weak high pressure centered over the south-central Gulf will be replaced by ridging associated to a new high center that forms over the NE Gulf providing for a light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow pattern across the basin, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula and near NE Mexico and the Texas coast. This should hold through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure over NW Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over most of the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and near Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic. Moderate to fresh winds are also ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas over these waters are moderate, except rough offshore Colombia. For the remainder of the basin, winds are moderate or weaker, with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. During the same period, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Windward Passage through Wed night. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night as well. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near 28N61W to 24N64W and to Puerto Rico. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is associated with this trough, affecting mainly the waters from 20N to 29N between 55W and 70W. Aside from the convection, the trough is bringing moderate to fresh winds to the same region E of the Bahamas. The Bermuda-Azores ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh easterly winds, with the exception of fresh to locally strong N to NE winds in the vicinity of the Canary Islands, and in the approaches to the Windward Passage. Seas are generally moderate across the tropical and subtropical waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will move westward reaching near 70W by Wed afternoon and to near 75W by Thu morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected on either side of the trough axis. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere E of the Bahamas through Fri, except S of 23N E of about 77W where mostly fresh trades are expected into Sun. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC221033_C_KWBC_20260722103422_32440682-5950-TWDAT.txt ****0000007035**** AXNT20 KNHC 221033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Jul 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Bertha is centered near 29.4N 88.3W at 22/0900 UTC or about about 45 nm ENE of the mouth of the Mississippi River and 140 nm west-southwest of Panama City Florida, moving W at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the Bertha remains a heavily sheared system, with its low- level center clearly exposed to the north of its deep convective activity that consists of numerous moderate to strong convection from 26N to 28N between 84W and 88W, and from 25N to 29N between 88W and 92W. Bertha is forecast to continue its current motion through through Fri with a little acceleration. On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches with isolated higher totals to 6 inches through Thursday along the central to the western Gulf Coast from western Florida to southern Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas. Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with its axis along 33W from 09N to 19W, moving westward around 20 kt. Dry air surrounds this wave. Only isolated showers are seen near the southern part of the wave between 34W and 35W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W from 08N to 24N moving westward near 15 kt. An area of moderate convection is present from 21N to 24N between 51W and 57W. Otherwise, a few showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm west of the southern part of the wave from 08N to 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W, and continues southwestward to 10N25W and to 08N38W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 35W-38W. Similar activity is from 05N to 09N between 29W-34W, and just offshore the coast of Africa from 14N to 18N between 17W-19W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bertha located about 45 nm ENE of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Aside from conditions related to Bertha, moderate or weaker winds are noted W of 90W and over the southeastern Gulf waters under a weak ridge. For the forecast, Bertha will begin top gradually weaken as it moves inland to near 29.4N 89.4W this afternoon, inland to 29.3N 91.4W late tonight, to near 29.3N 93.9W Thu afternoon, then weaken to a remnant low near 29.5N 96.3W late Thu night and dissipate Fri afternoon. Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. In the wake of Bertha, weak high pressure centered over the south- central Gulf will be replaced by ridging associated to a new high center that forms over the NE Gulf providing for a light to gentle anticyclonic wind flow pattern across the basin, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula and near NE Mexico and the Texas coast. These conditions are expected through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure over NW Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over most of the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and near Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic. Gentle to moderate winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. Buoy 42058 located near 14N76W continues to report seas of 8 to 9 ft. For the remainder of the basin, winds are moderate or weaker along with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the Windward Passage will diminish this morning, and may briefly pulse back up tonight. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras from this afternoon into tonight. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near 29N65W to 24N66W and to the Mona Passage. A large area of increasing numerous moderate convection is seen from 22N to 29N between 61W and 71W, and also from 24N to 28N between 47W and 57W. Overnight satellite scatterometer data confirmed the presence of this trough and indicated fresh to locally strong winds on either side of the trough north of about 23N. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds, with the exception of fresh to strong north to northeast winds near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh northeast winds north of the tropical wave near 35W, and fresh to strong northeast winds between Haiti and eastern Cuba, including in the Windward Passage. Seas are generally of moderate state, with locally rough seas east of about 35W as noted in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will move westward reaching near 70W by Wed afternoon and to near 75W by Thu morning. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected on either side of the trough axis. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere E of the Bahamas through Fri, except S of 23N E of about 77W where mostly fresh trades are expected into Sun. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC221735_C_KWBC_20260722173525_32440682-5982-TWDAT.txt ****0000007007**** AXNT20 KNHC 221735 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Jul 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Bertha is centered near 29.8N 88.6W at 22/1500 UTC or 30 nm S of Pascagoula Mississippi, moving WNW at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are 18 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of the center of Bertha from 25N-29N between 89W-94W. A westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected to resume later today and continue through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts through Thursday, and then move farther inland into Texas on Friday. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, but Bertha could maintain tropical storm intensity through late Thursday. Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Bertha NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 07N-22N, moving westward around 20 kt. No significant deep convection is noted with the wave at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W from 05N-18N moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant deep convection is noted with the wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Senegal at 13N17W and extends southwestward to 10N22W where it breaks for a tropical wave and trough. The ITCZ starts at 08N39W and extends to 08N48W, where it breaks for another tropical wave. The ITCZ resumes at 08N51W to 07N58W along coastal Guyana. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N-14N east of 21W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 06N-11N west of 48W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Bertha located about 50 NM north-northeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River. Aside from conditions related to Bertha, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-7 ft prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Bertha is about 50 nm south of Pascagoula, Mississippi near 29.8N 88.6W at 11 AM EDT, and is moving west- northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Bertha will move inland over southeast Louisiana and reach 29.6N 90.3W this evening, then continue to 29.5N 92.7W off southwest Louisiana by Thu morning. Bertha will continue to move west and make landfall again over the upper Texas coast late Thu, weaken to a remnant low over southeastern Texas Fri morning, then dissipate by Fri evening. Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. In the wake of Bertha, weak high pressure centered over the south-central Gulf will be replaced by ridging associated to a new high center that forms over the NE Gulf providing for a light to gentle wind flow across the basin, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula and near NE Mexico and the Texas coast. These conditions are expected to persist through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The usual north-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean is reduced today due to a surface trough just north of Hispaniola. As a result, there is only a small area of fresh to locally strong trades just north of Colombia and Venezuela. Seas are 5-9 ft in that area as well as down fetch over the SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, trades are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5 ft. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the Windward Passage will pulse tonight. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras from this afternoon into tonight. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sun ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging is located north of the discussion area associated with an usually far north located Bermuda-Azores High. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting only moderate to locally fresh trades and seas 4-7 ft across all waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. The exception are fresh to locally strong NE winds off of Western Sahara with seas 6-9 ft. There are three convectively active surface troughs. The first is north of Hispaniola with scattered moderate convection occurring from 20N-30N between 63W-72W. The second is a trough southwest of the Azores associated with scattered moderate convection north of 28N between 33W-38W. The third is a trough that may have been spawned by the tropical wave at 37W and is causing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 09N-16N between 26W-34W. Additionally, an upper-level low is promoting scattered moderate convection from 21N-29N between 52W-60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough north of Hispaniola will move westward reaching the Bahamas Thu afternoon and to central and South Florida Fri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the waters east of northern Florida Sat night through Sun night preceded by mostly moderate to fresh southwest to winds between northeast Florida and Bermuda. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################