--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC080524_C_KWBC_20260908052506_38011292-1884-TWDAT.txt ****0000005585**** AXNT20 KNHC 080524 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38W from 03N to 19N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 51W, moving westward near 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W, south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. For related convection information, please refer to the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP). ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, and continues southwestward to 08N30W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 07N37W. It resumes near 07N41W to 06N49W. Scattered showers are noted along and south of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ between 41W and 49W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front is draped across northern Florida and the Florida panhandle. The combination of this frontal boundary, with deep moisture already in place over the area and an upper- level trough digging southward over the southeastern U.S. and a trough that extends from central Florida southwestward to just west of Key West and near the Dry Tortugas will continue to favor scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, the Florida peninsula and the southern portion of Alabama, Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana going into the middle part of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also evident south of 25N west of 90W while isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere. Weak high pressure of 1013 mb is centered near 28N94W. Its associated weak pressure gradient is generally allowing for light to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin per latest buoy observations, scatterometer data and a few satellite altimeter data passes. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean. Mostly moderate trades and moderate are over the rest of basin, with the exception of the northwestern portion of the sea, where light to gentle winds are continuing. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean will increase in areal coverage through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas will develop over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is analyzed extending from weak low pressure of 1015 mb near 31N72W southwestward to 30N81W. To the south of this boundary, a surface trough is analyzed along 79W and S of 29N. Scattered moderate convection prevails near the trough mainly W of 77W. A mid to upper-level northeast to southwest oriented trough situated north of Hispaniola continues to support scattered showers S of 25N between 64W and 70W. A high center of 1028 mb is north of the area at 34W28W. A ridge stretches across the remainder of the basin. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and a pair of tropical waves moving through the tropical Atlantic region is supporting fresh to strong winds north of 11N and east of 27W. These winds are generating rough seas over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, are over the waters west of about 70W. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas are present elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid week. This pattern will support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through Tue, then moderate to fresh winds S of 21N Tue night through Thu. The stationary front will linger near 31N through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through Tue night. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC080834_C_KWBC_20260908083410_21889468-1612-TWDAT.txt ****0000004503**** AXNT20 KNHC 080834 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W from 03N to 19N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 43W and 48W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 56W, moving westward near 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 52W and 57W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 78W, south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis S of 12N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 09N27W. The ITCZ continues from 09N27W to 07N40W. It resumes near 07N41W to 06N49W. Scattered showers are noted along and south of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 14W and 20W, and from 05N to 08N between 26N and 32W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends across the eastern waters from central Florida to Mississippi. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the front. A surface trough has moved westward off the Yucatan peninsula into the SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are in the vicinity of the trough. Light to gentle winds are over the SE Gulf. Gentle winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate are over the rest of basin, with the exception of the northwestern waters, where light to gentle winds are noted. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near- gale force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas will develop over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near 31N69W to central Florida. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front. High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1027 mb high centered near 33N31W. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of 20N and E of 30W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of 22N and E of 60W. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range from 15N to 28N and E of 45W. Mainly moderate seas dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward along about 26N to the NW Bahamas will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid week. This pattern will support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas today, then moderate to fresh winds S of 21N tonight through Thu. A stationary front will linger near 31N through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through tonight. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC081740_C_KWBC_20260908174114_21889468-1649-TWDAT.txt ****0000004851**** AXNT20 KNHC 081740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 44W and 53W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 58W from 19N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 19N between 53W and 60W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 79W, south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 12N between 80W and 84W, likely enhanced by the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and continues southwestward to 10N28W. The ITCZ continues from 10N28W to 08N35W to 10N44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 15N and E of 22W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen from 05N to 10N between 25W and 34W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends across the eastern waters from central FL to south-central LA. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the vicinity of the front. A surface trough has moved westward off the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are in the vicinity of the trough. Light to gentle winds are over the SE Gulf. Gentle winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate are over the rest of basin, with the exception of the northwestern waters, where light to gentle winds are noted. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near- gale force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas will develop over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near 31N70W to central Florida. A pre-frontal trough also extends from just north of Hispaniola to near 32N58W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the front and trough. Convergent surface winds are also supporting scattered moderate convection near the SW Bahamas and FL Straits. High pressure dominates the remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 32N34W. Fresh to strong winds are noted N of 20N and E of 30W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of 22N and E of 60W, with fresh to locally strong winds occurring near the Tropical Wave analyzed near 47W. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range from 14N to 28N between 21W and 55W. Mainly moderate seas dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward along about 26N to the NW Bahamas will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid week. This pattern will support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas today, then moderate to fresh winds S of 21N tonight through Thu. A stationary front will linger near 31N through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through tonight. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################