--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC190001_C_KWBC_20260919000239_31523192-3996-TWDAT.txt ****0000007589**** AXNT20 KNHC 190001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from near 21N44W to 11N42W. It is moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is east of the wave from 15N to 18N between 39W and 42W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 12N to 16N between 33W and 39W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis roughly along 80W south of 19N to central Panama and moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is southwest of Jamaica, while numerous moderate to strong convection is along the intersection of the wave and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, across the coastal waters of Panama and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 11N21W to 12.5N31W to 13N38W and northwestward to 16N48W. The ITCZ extends from 12N48W to 13N52W to 11N57W to 10N62W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical wave described above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 48W-51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 22W-31W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Low-level residual moisture from a recent frontal boundary remains over the southern Gulf south of about 26N between Florida and Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is present from 22N to 26N between 82W and 94W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over some sections of the Straits of Florida. At the surface, a broad high pressure ridge extends across the southeastern U.S. along about 34N, and is promoting gentle to moderate easterly winds across the basin north of 25N, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. A trough is analyzed from near 26N90W to 23N92W and to 21.5N95W. This feature is aiding in focusing convection to its east, and promoting the strongest winds and seas across the basin across the northern end of the trough. Light to gentle mostly easterly winds prevail south of 25N per latest satellite scatterometer data and buoy observations. Seas over this part of the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over most of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere over the basin south of 27N. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will dominate the Gulf region supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through Sun. Winds will then ease to light to gentle speeds early next week, with seas remaining slight. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level low currently located over northeastern Florida will move into the NE Gulf on Sat. This feature will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf waters. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast by the end of the weekend into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the tropical wave section for details on a wave in the central Caribbean including associated convection. Upper- level disturbances riding along a jet stream branch across the northwest Caribbean are supporting scattered moderate convection across the Gulf of Honduras and near the tropical wave. Elsewhere, fair skies prevail across the basin. The pressure gradient between weakening high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is allowing for fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean south of 17N between 66W and 78W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are found elsewhere from 10N to 19N to the east of 80W, along with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3 to 5 ft remain across the remainder of the basin, except for seas to 6 ft across southwest portions across the western coastal waters of Panama. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over he western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will generally maintain fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally rough seas over most of the central Caribbean through early Sat morning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds thereafter as the pressure gradient relaxes across the area. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front extends from near 31N72W to near 29N79W. Broad upper level low pressure over northern Florida is promoting unstable conditions across much of the area W of 68W. Converging low-level moisture associated with the front is producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 22N to 28N between the Straits of Florida and 68W. Similar activity is south of 22N between 69W and 76W, reaching the interior portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate northeast winds north of he front, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Winds are light to gentle between 60W and South Florida south of the front, except for fresh southeast winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola to 22N. Weak high pressure and light winds prevail east of the front to near 46W. A trough extends from near 31N44W to 27N48W and to 25N55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm southeast of the trough between 49W and 55W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 25N to 31N between 40W and 55W. To the northeast, a 1023 mb high center is near 35N44W. Associated broad ridging covers the eastern and central Atlantic. Mostly moderate northeast to east trades prevail south of 25N between the Cabo Verdes and the tropical wave that is along the position of 21N44W to 11N42W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Well to the east, fresh to strong north to northeast winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found from 16N to 22N between Africa and 20W due to a tight pressure gradient between low pressure in NW Africa and the Atlantic ridge. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are elsewhere from 16N to 31N to the east of 28W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the weakening stationary front will dissipate late tonight, or early on Sat. High pressure will become the dominant feature across the basin during the weekend into early next week, promoting light to gentle winds with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas offshore Hispaniola. Meanwhile, abundant tropical moisture, combined with an upper- level low that is presently over northeast Florida, will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of about 70W through at least Sun. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC190232_C_KWBC_20260919023328_4522426-3972-TWDAT.txt ****0000006566**** AXNT20 KNHC 190232 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0140 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43.5W from 06N to 21N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 38W and 44W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis roughly along 82W south of 19N near the Cayman Islands to near the border of Costa Rica and Panama, moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 13N to 20N between 77W and 85W. Additional deep convection is present to the south along the intersection of the wave and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, across the coastal waters and inland portions of Costa Rica and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 11N26W then northwestward to 14N42W. The ITCZ extends from 13N45W to 1009 mb low pressure seen by a very recent ASCAT scatterometer pass at 13N51W to along the NE coast of Venezuela at 10N65W. A surface trough is analyzed south of the monsoon trough from 12N18W to 07N39W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical wave described above, isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong convection is seen on conventional satellite imagery within 180 nm either side of the surface trough. Scattered moderate to strong convection is near the surface low, from 12N to 15N between 48W and 53W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A few surface troughs are analyzed and impacting the Gulf. One extends across Central Florida to west of Tampa Bay, and another to the south from 25N84W to 25N95W. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are near both troughs. Moderate to locally fresh winds are north of the 25N trough and west of 85W, along with 3-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, the diurnal surface trough is over the western Yucatan Peninsula with convection present over the peninsula. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through Sun. Winds will then ease to light to gentle speeds early next week, with seas remaining slight. Meanwhile, a broad upper- level low currently located over northeastern Florida will move into the NE Gulf on Sat. This feature will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the tropical wave section for details on a wave in the western Caribbean including associated convection. The pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of the basin and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is allowing for fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean from 11N to 17N between 66W and 77W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are found elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 64W and 80W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft remain across the remainder of the basin, except for 1-3 ft seas in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian Low will generally maintain fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally rough seas over most of the central Caribbean through early Sat morning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds thereafter as the pressure gradient relaxes across the area. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the tropical wave section for details on a wave in the central Atlantic including associated convection, as well as convection near the monsoon trough/ITCZ and nearby features. The remnants of a stationary front as a frontal trough extend from 31N74W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Some isolated to widely scattered showers are near the trough. South of the trough, upper- level disturbances riding along a jet stream branch from across the northwest Caribbean to the Bahamas are supporting scattered moderate convection from 18N to 28N between 61W and 77W. Another surface trough is in the central Atlantic, from 31N43W to 23N57W as seen by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the trough. A relatively weak pressure gradient is the result of the above features across the basin resulting in winds of moderate or weaker. Moderate to fresh localized winds are over the SE Bahamas and Turks and Caicos with similar winds near the NE coast of South America, and north of 17N between Africa and 23W where the normally locally tight pressure gradient exists. Seas of 3-4 ft in mainly long period SE swell dominates the waters west of 55W across the offshore waters zones. Similar seas are found north of 23N between 30W and 55W in mainly NE swell. Seas are 5-7 ft from 13N to 20N between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, with similar heights north of 27N between Africa and 23W, and 3-5 ft in mixed NE and SE swells across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough extending from near 31N74W to Cape Canaveral, Florida will dissipate overnight. High pressure will become the dominant feature across the basin during the weekend into early next week, promoting light to gentle winds with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas offshore Hispaniola. Meanwhile, abundant tropical moisture, combined with an upper- level low now located over NE Florida, will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, across the central and southern Bahamas, and between the central Bahamas and Bermuda, through at least Sun. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC190536_C_KWBC_20260919053630_4522426-3988-TWDAT.txt ****0000006566**** AXNT20 KNHC 190536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0140 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43.5W from 06N to 21N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 38W and 44W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis roughly along 82W south of 19N near the Cayman Islands to near the border of Costa Rica and Panama, moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 13N to 20N between 77W and 85W. Additional deep convection is present to the south along the intersection of the wave and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, across the coastal waters and inland portions of Costa Rica and Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 11N26W then northwestward to 14N42W. The ITCZ extends from 13N45W to 1009 mb low pressure seen by a very recent ASCAT scatterometer pass at 13N51W to along the NE coast of Venezuela at 10N65W. A surface trough is analyzed south of the monsoon trough from 12N18W to 07N39W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical wave described above, isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong convection is seen on conventional satellite imagery within 180 nm either side of the surface trough. Scattered moderate to strong convection is near the surface low, from 12N to 15N between 48W and 53W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A few surface troughs are analyzed and impacting the Gulf. One extends across Central Florida to west of Tampa Bay, and another to the south from 25N84W to 25N95W. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are near both troughs. Moderate to locally fresh winds are north of the 25N trough and west of 85W, along with 3-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, the diurnal surface trough is over the western Yucatan Peninsula with convection present over the peninsula. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through Sun. Winds will then ease to light to gentle speeds early next week, with seas remaining slight. Meanwhile, a broad upper- level low currently located over northeastern Florida will move into the NE Gulf on Sat. This feature will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the tropical wave section for details on a wave in the western Caribbean including associated convection. The pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of the basin and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is allowing for fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean from 11N to 17N between 66W and 77W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are found elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 64W and 80W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft remain across the remainder of the basin, except for 1-3 ft seas in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian Low will generally maintain fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally rough seas over most of the central Caribbean through early Sat morning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds thereafter as the pressure gradient relaxes across the area. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the tropical wave section for details on a wave in the central Atlantic including associated convection, as well as convection near the monsoon trough/ITCZ and nearby features. The remnants of a stationary front as a frontal trough extend from 31N74W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Some isolated to widely scattered showers are near the trough. South of the trough, upper- level disturbances riding along a jet stream branch from across the northwest Caribbean to the Bahamas are supporting scattered moderate convection from 18N to 28N between 61W and 77W. Another surface trough is in the central Atlantic, from 31N43W to 23N57W as seen by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the trough. A relatively weak pressure gradient is the result of the above features across the basin resulting in winds of moderate or weaker. Moderate to fresh localized winds are over the SE Bahamas and Turks and Caicos with similar winds near the NE coast of South America, and north of 17N between Africa and 23W where the normally locally tight pressure gradient exists. Seas of 3-4 ft in mainly long period SE swell dominates the waters west of 55W across the offshore waters zones. Similar seas are found north of 23N between 30W and 55W in mainly NE swell. Seas are 5-7 ft from 13N to 20N between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands, with similar heights north of 27N between Africa and 23W, and 3-5 ft in mixed NE and SE swells across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough extending from near 31N74W to Cape Canaveral, Florida will dissipate overnight. High pressure will become the dominant feature across the basin during the weekend into early next week, promoting light to gentle winds with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas offshore Hispaniola. Meanwhile, abundant tropical moisture, combined with an upper- level low now located over NE Florida, will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, across the central and southern Bahamas, and between the central Bahamas and Bermuda, through at least Sun. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC190915_C_KWBC_20260919091643_31523192-4027-TWDAT.txt ****0000004698**** AXNT20 KNHC 190915 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W from 06N to 21N, drifting westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 18N between 40W and 45W. Scattered moderate isolated to strong convection is also noted north of the tropical wave from 20N to 26N between 40W and 45W, mostly due to a sharp upper trough northwest of the tropical wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis roughly along 82W/83W south of 19N near the Cayman Islands to near the border of Costa Rica and Panama, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 18N to 20N between 75W and 88W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from 14N17W to 10N23W to 13N44W. The ITCZ extends from 13N46W to 11N61W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 15W and 25W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted near 1012 mb low pressure near 14N52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms is active over the southeast and south-central Gulf, south of a trough from 26N81W to 1014 mb low pressure near 24N92W. Light to gentle E breezes persist across the Gulf between the weak low pressure and equally weak high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley. Seas are 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf and 2-4 ft in the western Gulf. For the forecast, ridging will dominate the Gulf region supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through Sun. Winds will then ease to light to gentle speeds early next week, with seas remaining slight. Meanwhile, a broad upper- level low currently located over northeastern Florida will move into the NE Gulf today. This feature will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of the basin and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is allowing for mostly fresh E trades over the central Caribbean from 11N to 15N between 68W and 79W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are found elsewhere along with seas of 5-7 ft, except for gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas over the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian Low will generally maintain fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally rough seas over most of the central Caribbean through this morning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds thereafter as the pressure gradient relaxes across the area. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough extends from 31N74W to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Farther east, another trough is along 60W from 25N to 30N, and from 31N43W to 23N55W. This creates a weak pressure pattern supporting light to gentle breezes and 3-4 ft seas west of 50W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off east-central Florida and between the southern Bahamas and Bermuda. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5-7 ft seas are noted east of 50W. As noted in the Tropical Wave section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 20N to 26N between 40W and 45W, mostly due to a sharp upper trough near 29N47W. For the forecast west of 55W, weak troughing will persist north of the Bahamas through late Sun, then dissipate. High pressure will then become the dominant feature across the basin during through early next week, promoting light to gentle winds with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas offshore Hispaniola. Meanwhile, abundant tropical moisture, combined with an upper- level low now located over central Florida, will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms off east- central Florida and between the southern Bahamas and Bermuda through at least Sun. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC191607_C_KWBC_20260919160746_31523192-4053-TWDAT.txt ****0000006496**** AXNT20 KNHC 191607 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200| UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W-45W from 08N to 21N, drifting westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 18N between 40W and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave along the monsoon trough between 42W and 45.5W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is also noted across north portions of the tropical wave and extend will north of the wave, from 19N to 29N between 39W and 44W, due to a sharp surface trough extending N-NE from the tropical wave interacting with an upper trough northwest of the tropical wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 81W south of 19N to western Panama, moving westward around 10-15 kt. A low level wind surge accompanying the northern portion of the wave has moved ahead of the wave axis and into the NW Caribbean. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 16N to 22N between 79W and 87.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along and S of the monsoon trough near the wave between 76W and 83.5W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W to 08N28W to 14N40W to 12N47W. The ITCZ extends from 11N55W to 10.5N62W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08.5N to 13N E of 20W to the African coast. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 20W and 32W, and within 180 nm NE semicircle of 1012 mb low pressure near 14N52.5W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A band of scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms remains active over the southeast and south-central Gulf, from 22.5N to 26.5N and E of 94.5W to the Florida coast, supported by a pair of upper-level low centers dominating the basin. A weak 1012 mb surface low has developed below the western-most upper low near 24.5N93W. Elsewhere at the surface, a weak high pressure remains across the SE U.S. and extends a broad ridge southward across the northern Gulf, and is producing light to gentle NE to E winds across the Gulf waters N of 26N. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across this area, except 4 to 5 ft within 150 nm N of the low at 24.5N93W. S of 26N light S to SE winds prevail, with isolated showers dotting the SW portions. Seas there are 2-3 ft. For the forecast, weak ridging north of the Gulf will maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the basin for the next several days. An upper-level low and associated surface low/trough over the central Gulf will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A modest pressure gradient between weak high pressure across the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is allowing for mostly fresh E trades over the central Caribbean from 11N to 16N between 67W and 80W, where seas remain at 6-9 ft. Light to moderate trades are found elsewhere along with seas of 4-5 ft, except for gentle breezes and 1-3 ft seas over the northwest and northeast Caribbean. Upper-level low centers over the Gulf of America are promoting unstable conditions across the NW Caribbean, and supporting active convection ahead of the tropical wave there, and described above. Elsewhere, fair skies prevail across the rest of the basin. For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between high pressure north of the eastern Caribbean and the Colombian Low will maintain fresh to briefly strong trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low over the Gulf of America ill promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the next two days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A very weak pressure pattern prevails across the western Atlantic W of 50W today, allowing for upper level features to dominate the weather. An upper-level low over Florida and the NE Gulf of America is interacting with abundant low level moisture moving W and NW to produce scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection across the Bahamas and adjacent areas S of 27N and W of 69W. Winds are light and variable across much of this area, except near thunderstorms, with light to moderate trades N of Hispaniola and into the SE Bahamas. Seas are 4 ft or less. To the E, an upper level trough extends into the area along 28n, between 40W and 60W. Moisture shearing northward away from the northern end of the tropical wave along 44W-45W is interacting favorably with the upper trough to produce scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 19N to 29N between 39W and 44W. Other scattered moderate convection is noted south of a surface trough along 25N between 48W and 60W. Winds are also light to gentle and variable W of 44W, except moderate near the tropical wave, and moderate to fresh near a drifting 1012 mb surface low near 14N52.5W. East of 44W, the Azores High extends a ridge southwestward into the area waters, producing moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds N of 10N and E of 28W, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere between 28W and 40W, becoming moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds near the tropical wave. Seas are 5 to 7 ft E of 28W and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere between 28W and 40W, and 5 to 6 ft with and just behind the tropical wave. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient across the western Atlantic waters will promote only gentle to moderate winds across forecast waters for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low and abundant tropical moisture will force scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the waters west of 70W for at least the next two days. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC192133_C_KWBC_20260919213438_4522426-4058-TWDAT.txt ****0000003499**** AXNT20 KNHC 192133 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 02N to 21N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 20N between 41W and 50W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 82/83WW south of 19N to western Panama, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 77W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 09N27W to 15N45W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 14W and 21W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail N of 25N. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are found S of 25N. For the forecast, weak ridging north of the Gulf will maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf for the next several days. An upper-low and associated surface low/trough over the central Gulf will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are elsewhere E of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are found W of 80W. For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will maintain fresh to locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low will promote scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the next two days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic waters N of 20N are dominated by three troughs. The first one is from the central Bahamas northward to 28N73W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is in the vicinity of this trough. Farther east, another trough extends from 31N60W to 25N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of this trough. A third trough is from 29N43W to 23N46W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of this trough. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the waters W of 45W with light to gentle winds and slight seas prevailing over these waters. East of 45W, gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds across forecast waters for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low and abundant tropical moisture will force scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the waters west of 65W for at least the next two days. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################