--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC110431_C_KWBC_20260611043137_9109880-5479-TWDAT.txt ****0000004682**** AXNT20 KNHC 110431 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0431 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical waves has emerged off the coast of West Africa. This wave is near 17W, S of 11.5N. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is depicted from 02.5N to 10N and east of 20W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W, S of 15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 44W and 50W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 58W, S of 15N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 57W and 61W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W, S of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is depicted at this time in association to this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W and extends SW to 05N29W. The ITCZ extends from 05N29W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 20W and 34.5W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is across the Yucatan Peninsula, supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection near the Yucatan Channel as well as over the Yucatan peninsula, and the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate east winds prevail across the Gulf, except north of the Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh to locally strong easterly winds prevail. Seas 2 to 5 ft prevail across the basin, except for seas 5 to 6 ft north of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern and north- central Gulf into early next week. A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu night and then track slowly northwestward through the weekend. It will enhance the gradient with the surface ridge, causing fresh to strong SE winds across the south-central and west-central Gulf. It will also trigger scattered to numerous thunderstorms and rough seas across the same area into Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is depicted west of 80W. The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area, the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough, and broad low pressure around TD Cristina is supporting fresh to locally strong winds over central and western Caribbean. Seas over these waters are in the 4-7 ft range. Over the eastern Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a building ridge of high pressure in the western Atlantic and T.D. Cristina in the Eastern Pacific offshore of El Salvador will sustain fresh to strong E to SE winds with moderate to rough seas from the south- central to northwestern basin into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening frontal boundary extends from 31N52W across the northern waters to near 30N77W. A surface trough is found S of the front from 29N58W to 21N70W, with a weak 1016 mb surface low along the trough near 26N62W. Isolated moderate convection is near the low along the trough. High pressure prevails across the remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 40N26W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail over the waters N of 20N and W of 55W. South of 20N, and between 35W and the Lesser Antilles moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail along with seas 5 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are noted N of 20N and E of 25W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, The low will dissipate as it moves northeastward along the trough through Thu. Meanwhile, a stationary frontal boundary currently along 28N will dissipate overnight. The Atlantic ridge will then build across the region late Thu through Fri along roughly 25N. Looking ahead, this pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds north of Hispaniola at night from Fri night through early next week. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC110859_C_KWBC_20260611085943_32440682-2515-TWDAT.txt ****0000005163**** AXNT20 KNHC 110859 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical waves is off the coast of West Africa along 18W, S of 12N. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W, S of 15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, S of 15N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W, S of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is depicted at this time in association to this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 15N17W and extends SW to 09N20W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 03N40W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 06W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 04N and 06N between 45W and 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along a surface trough off the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N90W to 18.5N93W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also active over the loop current near 25N86W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong SE winds east of the trough to the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The scatterometer also indicated moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere over the western Gulf, and gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf where weak high pressure is present. Seas are 4-6 ft between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and the Texas coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week. Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume of fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas from the northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland and weakens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active off eastern Honduras, under diffluent flow aloft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active along the coast of Belize. Farther east, a few showers and thunderstorms are active along and just west of the Windward Islands, between a couple of tropical waves. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean, and fresh to strong E winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, a strong ridge across the western Atlantic will support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean into early next week, with the highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the northwest Caribbean west of 85W through at least Fri night, between the ridge and low pressure over northern Central America and southern Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active near a 1016 mb low pressure area centered near 26N61W, which is along a trough extending from 30N54W to 24N65W. Farther north, a surface ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure northeast of Bermuda near 35N60W to northeast Florida. Farther east, another surface ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure near the Azores Islands to 25N45W. Gentle breezes and 4-5 ft seas are noted west of and along this ridge, and moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft seas are evident south of this ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will dissipate as it moves northeast of the area through this evening. A ridge will extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate breezes across the basin, except moderate to fresh winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC111019_C_KWBC_20260611101941_9109880-5509-TWDAT.txt ****0000006189**** AXNT20 KNHC 111019 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize: Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. Given the abundant moisture already pooling into this area and ongoing showers and thunderstorms, this pattern will support the potential for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula through late Saturday. The heaviest rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period, primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local meteorological agencies for further guidance. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical waves is off the coast of West Africa along 18W, S of 12N. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 47W, S of 15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, S of 15N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Convection described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 66W, S of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is depicted at this time in association to this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 15N17W and extends SW to 09N20W to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 03N40W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 06W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 04N and 06N between 45W and 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along a surface trough off the Yucatan Peninsula from 22N90W to 18.5N93W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also active over the loop current near 25N86W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong SE winds east of the trough to the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The scatterometer also indicated moderate to fresh SE winds elsewhere over the western Gulf, and gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf where weak high pressure is present. Seas are 4-6 ft between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and the Texas coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week. Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume of fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas from the northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland and weakens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Feature section regarding the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize through Saturday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active off eastern Honduras, under diffluent flow aloft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active along the coast of Belize. Farther east, a few showers and thunderstorms are active along and just west of the Windward Islands, between a couple of tropical waves. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean, and fresh to strong E winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, a strong ridge across the western Atlantic will support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean into early next week, with the highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the northwest Caribbean west of 85W through at least Fri night, between the ridge and low pressure over northern Central America and southern Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active near a 1016 mb low pressure area centered near 26N61W, which is along a trough extending from 30N54W to 24N65W. Farther north, a surface ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure northeast of Bermuda near 35N60W to northeast Florida. Farther east, another surface ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure near the Azores Islands to 25N45W. Gentle breezes and 4-5 ft seas are noted west of and along this ridge, and moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft seas are evident south of this ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will dissipate as it moves northeast of the area through this evening. A ridge will extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate breezes across the basin, except moderate to fresh winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC111810_C_KWBC_20260611181148_32440682-2559-TWDAT.txt ****0000008098**** AXNT20 KNHC 111810 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize: Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat. Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period, primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local meteorological agencies for further guidance. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 20W from 02N to 12N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west of the wave from 07N to 10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 47.5W from 05N to 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers are seen within 60 nm either side of the axis from 05N to 08N. A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, with its axis near 62W. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 10N to 12N, and within 60 nm west of the wave from 10N to 11N to 12.5N. Isolated, small showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the wave from 13N to 14N between 63W and 65W. Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring at the present time with this wave. A tropical wave was added to the 12Z analysis over the Yucatan Peninsula along a position from 21.5N87W to 18N90W and to 13N92W as suggested to some extent in long-term satellite imagery and mildly in model guidance. This feature is one of the factors contributing to the heavy rain event described above under the Special Features section. Upper-level divergence from an an upper-level low that is west of the Yucatan Peninsula is helping to sustain clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Similar convection is noted from from 21.5N to 24N between the western tip of Cuba and 89W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Sat or on Sun. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near 15N17W and extends southwestward to 08N21W and to 05N30W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N35W to 04N42W and to 05N40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 20W-23W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between 24W-26W, between 27W-30W and also between 34W-38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also seen from 04N and 09N between 11W-18W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Tropical Waves sections for information on convection north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward from the western Atlantic to just inland the northern Gulf coast as an upper-level low is identified to be over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Recent Ascat satellite data passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the basin, except for fresh southeast winds over the central portions. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and the Texas coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week. Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume of fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough seas from the northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland and weakens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Feature section regarding the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding in the Yucatan peninsula and in northern Belize into Sat. The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the western Caribbean is generally allowing for fresh to strong southeast winds to exist in the northwestern part of the sea. Seas with these winds are 6 to 9 ft in southeast swell. The gradient between the same high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia is maintaining fresh to strong trades in the south-central section of the basin along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are just inland and along the coasts the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. This activity is in the wake of a tropical wave that is over the Yucatan Peninsula. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1016 mb low is analyzed near 26N61W, with a trough extending south-southwestward to 23N63W and to 22N70W. Another trough extends from the low to 29N60W while a stationary front is anaylzed from 29N60W to 29N61W, where it transitions to a cold front to northeast of the area at 31N47W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 25N to 28N between 53W and 58W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere north of 22N between 50W and 65W. Farther north, a surface ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure northeast of Bermuda near 35N58W west- southwestward to across northern Florida. Farther east, another surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center near the Azores Islands southwestward to 31N31W and continues to near 25N55W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes reveal light to gentle winds west of and along the ridge axis. Seas are 4 to 5 ft over these waters. The scatterometer satellite data passes reveal mostly moderate to fresh northeast winds south of the ridge axis, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned 1016 mb low centered near 26N61W will dissipate as it moves northeast of the area through this evening. A ridge will extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate breezes across the basin, except moderate to fresh winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night. $$ Aguirre --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC111813_C_KWBC_20260611181344_9109880-5535-TWDAT.txt ****0000008113**** AXNT20 KNHC 111813 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize: Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat. Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period, primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local meteorological agencies for further guidance. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern tropical wave has its axis along 20W from 02N to 12N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm west of the wave from 07N to 10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 47.5W from 05N to 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers are seen within 60 nm either side of the axis from 05N to 08N. A tropical wave has entered the eastern Caribbean, with its axis near 62W. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 10N to 12N, and within 60 nm west of the wave from 10N to 11N to 12.5N. Isolated, small showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the wave from 13N to 14N between 63W and 65W. Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring at the present time with this wave. A tropical wave was added to the 12Z analysis over the Yucatan Peninsula along a position from 21.5N87W to 18N90W and to 13N92W as suggested to some extent in long-term satellite imagery and mildly in model guidance. This feature is one of the factors contributing to the heavy rain event described above under the Special Features section. Upper-level divergence from an upper-level low that is west of the Yucatan Peninsula is helping to sustain clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. Similar convection is noted from from 21.5N to 24N between the western tip of Cuba and 89W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Sat or on Sun. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near 15N17W and extends southwestward to 08N21W and to 05N30W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N35W to 04N42W and to 05N40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 20W-23W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between 24W-26W, between 27W-30W and also between 34W-38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also seen from 04N and 09N between 11W-18W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Tropical Waves sections for information on convection north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Weak Atlantic ridging stretches westward from the western Atlantic to just inland the northern Gulf coast as an upper-level low is identified to be over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Recent Ascat satellite data passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the basin, except for fresh southeast winds over the central portions. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range between the northwest Yucatan Peninsula and the Texas coast, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, weak ridging will extend from the western Atlantic across the north-central Gulf into early next week. Farther south, weak low pressure will develop over southern Mexico and northern Central America today, then move into the the Bay of Campeche this evening. The low pressure will then move northwestward toward the coast of Tamaulipas state in northeast Mexico through Sat night. The gradient between the low pressure and the high pressure over the northeast Gulf will support a plume of fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough seas from the northwest Yucatan peninsula to the coast of Texas through at least Sat night. The low pressure will be accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms across the western Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland and weakens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Feature section regarding the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding in the Yucatan peninsula and in northern Belize into Sat. The pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the western Caribbean is generally allowing for fresh to strong southeast winds to exist in the northwestern part of the sea. Seas with these winds are 6 to 9 ft in southeast swell. The gradient between the same high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia is maintaining fresh to strong trades in the south-central section of the basin along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate mostly gentle to moderate trades elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are just inland and along the coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. This activity is to the east of a tropical wave that is over the Yucatan Peninsula. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1016 mb low is analyzed near 26N61W, with a trough extending south-southwestward to 23N63W and to 22N70W. Another trough extends from the low to 29N60W while a stationary front is anaylzed from 29N60W to 29N61W, where it transitions to a cold front to northeast of the area at 31N47W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 25N to 28N between 53W and 58W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere north of 22N between 50W and 65W. Farther north, a surface ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure center that is northeast of Bermuda near 35N58W west-southwestward to across northern Florida. Farther east, another surface ridge extends from a 1030 mb high pressure center near the Azores Islands southwestward to 31N31W and continues to near 25N55W. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes reveal light to gentle winds west of and along the ridge axis. Seas are 4 to 5 ft over these waters. The scatterometer satellite data passes reveal mostly moderate to fresh northeast winds south of the ridge axis, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned 1016 mb low centered near 26N61W will dissipate as it moves northeast of the area through this evening. A ridge will extend westward along roughly 29N and remain in place through early next week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate breezes across the basin, except moderate to fresh winds off Hispaniola starting Fri night. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################