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         TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES        

T1T2: AX
A1A2: NT

Date: 2026-07-11

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Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC110447_C_KWBC_20260711044718_9109880-7984-TWDAT.txt

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AXNT20 KNHC 110447

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0444 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the central

Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South 

America will support strong to near gale-force northeast to east 

trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of 

Venezuela into early next week. Winds are forecast to pulse to 

gale- force off the coast of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela 

tonight and again Sat night. Seas are expected to peak to around 

14 ft off Colombia Sat night. 



Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 57.5W, south

of 17N. It is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers 

and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 09N to 14N between 54W

and 62W. 



The Caribbean tropical wave has moved to the eastern Pacific. More

information about this wave can be found in the Eastern Pacific 

Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP). 



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N17W and continues 

southwestward to 08N32W. The ITCZ continues from 08N32W to 

06N52.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 

from 07N to 10N between 20W and 32W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



Numerous scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the

southeastern Gulf. A relatively weak pressure gradient over the 

area is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds, along with 

slight seas, across the region.



For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into next week, 

supporting mainly gentle SE winds. Fresh E winds will pulse 

offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on

gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia and in the Gulf 

of Venezuela.



The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian

low is supporting strong winds over the central Caribbean,

reaching gale force off Colombia according to the latest ASCAT.

Seas within these winds peak to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh trades 

and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean.



For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will 

support strong to near gale- force easterly trades and rough seas 

over the central Caribbean through next week, including the 

Windward Passage. Winds will pulse to gale-force off Colombia and 

in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight and Sat night. Trades over the 

Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong each evening through early 

next week. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate

seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean into the next week.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Numerous moderate convection is depicted from north of Cuba to 28N

and west of 78W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted 

north of 28N between 52.5W and 60W. Farther east, a weakening cold

front enters the waters near 31N15W and extends to 27N32WW. 

Gentle to moderate N winds are N of the frontal boundary. High 

pressure dominates the remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored 

by a 1022 mb high near 25N54.5W. Light to gentle winds are in the 

vicinity of the high. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere,

except for pulsing strong winds offshore Hispaniola. Seas are 

moderate or less across the discussion waters.



For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain 

dominant through the period, supporting moderate to fresh trades S

of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the N. Pulsing strong winds 

are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward 

Passage. An upper level low pressure will move W from the Bahamas 

and Florida through the weekend, bringing thunderstorms with 

locally strong winds and frequent lightning.



$$

KRV


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