--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC020400_C_KWBC_20260602040130_49676782-4548-TWDAT.txt ****0000006598**** AXNT20 KNHC 020400 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Jun 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure and an attendant cold front moving S of 31N will reach from Bermuda to the NW Bahamas by late Tue. Strong SW winds will develop ahead of the front Tue, increasing to gale-force SE of Bermuda by afternoon. Seas will build in this area to very rough. The front will stall Tue night, and winds will fall below gale force by Wed morning. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W, south of 16N and moving westward around 10 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A new tropical wave has been analyzed along 48W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is presently associated with this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 5 kt. Associated convection is confined to inland portions of Central America and the waters of the eastern Pacific basin. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 06N28W. The ITCZ extends from 06N28W to 06N34W and then from 05N37W to near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N to 12N and east of 21W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergence aloft, tropical moisture and diurnal heating support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the central and eastern Gulf and the Yucatan peninsula. The weak pressure gradient forces moderate to locally easterly winds and seas of 1-3 ft over much of the western Gulf, west of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a modest ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters until Wed morning, supporting gentle to moderate easterly to southerly winds. A late-season cold front will enter the northeastern Gulf Wed night, then stall from near Punta Gorda, Florida to New Orleans, Louisiana through Thu night before dissipating Fri. Anticipate fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas behind this front. By Fri night, ridging should rebuild across the central and northeastern Gulf, resuming gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas for the entire Gulf. An upper-level trough across the western Gulf will continue to support showers and thunderstorms across the eastern and central Gulf through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured near gale-force easterly winds, up to 33 kt, off northern Colombia. This is due to the very tight pressure gradient between the expanding 1032 mb high pressure system south of the Azores and very low pressures in northern Colombia. Fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas are found in the central Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, tight gradient between the Atlantic ridge and Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas at the central and part of the southwestern basin through Wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish slightly starting late Wed as the ridge north of the basin weakens. by Thu. Fresh to strong winds with moderate seas are expected at the Gulf of Honduras through Fri night. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea through the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning for waters southeast of Bermuda Tue evening. A broad 1009 mb low pressure system is analyzed near 30N75W and a cold front extends from the low to near the central coast of Florida. A warm from extends from the low to 28N69W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present off SE Florida and also north of 25N and between 61W and 73W. Moderate to locally strong cyclonic winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring north of 26N and west of 68W. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N58W to the warm front. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found south of the front to 24N and between 50W and 70W. Elsewhere west of 55W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. The rest of the tropical Atlantic are dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure system centered south of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and rough seas east of a line from 31N36W to the Lesser Antilles. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned low will move eastward along a stationary front past Bermuda through late Tue. Expect strong SW winds ahead of the low pressure and front Tue, with near gale to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas expected southeast of Bermuda by late Tue. The front will stall from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas Tue night, ahead of a reinforcing front moving into the waters off northeast Florida accompanied by strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish into Fri after the fronts merge, then weaken in place from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas with broad high pressure building off the Carolinas. Farther south, strong winds may pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola Tue nigh. $$ Delgado --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC021727_C_KWBC_20260602172853_47448518-4683-TWDAT.txt ****0000006132**** AXNT20 KNHC 021727 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Jun 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1727 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal boundary extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near 30N71W to the northwest Bahamas. The low pressure and frontal boundary will continue to move eastward and passing Bermuda through this evening. Expect strong SW winds ahead of the low pressure and front, with near gale to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas expected southeast of Bermuda this afternoon. The front will stall this evening, and winds will fall below gale force tonight. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39.5W, south of 16N and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 50.5W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. The western Caribbean tropical wave has moved to the EPAC, and more information can be found in the TWDEP. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 03N39W. The ITCZ extends from 03N39W to 05N51W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 11N and east of 27W. Similar convection is found from 04N to 08N between 44W and 54W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergence aloft and tropical moisture support scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the basin. Outside of the convection, gentle to moderate variable winds along with seas 2 to 3 ft prevail. For the forecast, a modest surface ridge at the northeastern Gulf will support gentle to moderate easterly to southerly winds and slight seas into Wed. A late-season cold front will enter the northeastern Gulf Wed night, then stall from near Punta Gorda, Florida to New Orleans, Louisiana through Thu night before dissipating Fri. Anticipate fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas behind this front and also north of the Yucatan Peninsula. By Fri night, ridging should rebuild across the central and northeastern Gulf, resuming gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas for the entire Gulf. An upper-level trough across the western Gulf will continue to support showers and thunderstorms across the eastern and central Gulf through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong NE to E winds over the central Caribbean. Seas within these winds are 7 to 10 ft. This is due to the very tight pressure gradient between the expanding 1035 mb high pressure system south of the Azores and very low pressures in northern Colombia. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the tight gradient between the Atlantic ridge and Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas at the central and part of the southwestern basin through Wed morning. Winds and seas will diminish slightly starting late Wed as the ridge north of the basin weakens. Fresh to strong winds with moderate seas are expected at the Gulf of Honduras through Fri night. Afterward, gentle to moderate E to SE winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail for most the of the Caribbean Sea through the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning for waters southeast of Bermuda today. A frontal boundary extends from a 1010 mb low pressure near 30N71W to the northwest Bahamas. A warm front extends from the low to 30N65W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of the frontal boundary north of 24N and between 68W and 78W. Moderate to locally strong E to SE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring north of 26N and east of 71W. To the east, a stationary front extends from 31N60W to the warm front. Fresh to strong S-SW winds and seas of 6-9 ft are found south of the front to 26N and between 58W and 64W. Elsewhere west of 71W, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1035 mb high pressure and near Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned low pressure and frontal boundary will continue to move eastward and passing Bermuda through this evening. Expect strong SW winds ahead of the low pressure and front, with near gale to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas expected southeast of Bermuda this afternoon. The front will stall from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas this evening, ahead of a reinforcing front moving into the waters off northeast Florida accompanied by strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish into Fri after the fronts merge, then weaken in place from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas with broad high pressure building off the Carolinas. Farther south, strong winds may pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC022258_C_KWBC_20260602225855_47448518-4702-TWDAT.txt ****0000005283**** AXNT20 KNHC 022258 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Jun 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 1010 mb low pressure centered near 30N68W to just NE of the Bahamas. This system will move E and pass Bermuda tonight. SE of Bermuda, gale force SW winds and very rough seas will continue until the front moves through. Later tonight, the front will stall and the low will move further north of the region, allowing winds to diminish into Wed. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has emerged off Africa into the far eastern Atlantic this evening, and has an axis along 21N, from 12N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 16W and 26W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 42N, south of 16N and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished this evening. A central Atlantic tropical wave has been analyzed along 53W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is noted near this trough at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 03N33W. The ITCZ extends from 03N33W to 05N51W. Convection near the monsoon trough is associated with the far eastern Atlantic tropical wave, depicted in the above Tropical Waves section. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Mid- and upper-level troughing and deep tropical moisture is supporting scattered moderate convection throughout the basin, with the most concentrated area of convection from 22N to 27N between 85W and 95W. At the surface, weak high pressure is translating to gentle winds away from convection, along with slight seas. For the forecast, a modest surface ridge at the northeastern Gulf will support gentle to moderate easterly to southerly winds and slight seas through tonight. A late-season cold front will enter the northeastern Gulf Wed morning, then stall from near Punta Gorda, Florida to New Orleans, Louisiana through Thu night before dissipating Fri. Anticipate fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas behind this front and also north of the Yucatan Peninsula. By Fri night, ridging should rebuild across the central and northeastern Gulf, resuming gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas for the entire Gulf. An upper-level trough across the western Gulf will continue to support showers and thunderstorms across the eastern and central Gulf through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas dominate the central Caribbean due to the tight pressure gradient between 1035 mb high pressure centered S of the Azores and low pressure over Colombia. Fresh winds and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, with moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas elsewhere. The only convection in the basin is in the far SW, S of 11N, where an extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered thunderstorms. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas at the central and part of the southwestern basin will diminish to between gentle and moderate with moderate seas by Wed night or early Thu morning. A similar trend is also expected at the Gulf of Honduras by Fri night. Early next week, a large, strengthening Azores High will cause tightening gradient again, leading to building winds and seas at northwestern and central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning for waters southeast of Bermuda. S of the cold front depicted in the Special Features section, scattered moderate convection extends for about 150 nm from the boundary, impacting much of the Bahamas. E of the front, southward to 25N and E to 60W, strong SW winds are rough seas are present, with strong NE winds and rough seas occurring W of the front and N of 28N. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1034 mb high pressure between the Canary Islands and the Azores. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas will diminish into Fri as broad high pressure builds off the Carolinas. Farther south, strong winds may pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################