--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC060558_C_KWBC_20261006055907_4522426-5753-TWDAT.txt ****0000005954**** AXNT20 KNHC 060558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92): A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for development, a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The system is expected to drift east-northeastward through the middle portion of the week before turning northward. It is too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. Chances of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours are high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 61W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 55W and 62W. This wave is also enhancing fresh to strong E winds across and in between the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along 86W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active over Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at 15N17W and extends to 06N43W. The ITCZ extends from 06N43W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 15N and E of 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Invest AL92. A frontal boundary extends from the Big Bend of FL across the northern Gulf to the coastal border of the United States and Mexico. A 1011 mb low is analyzed near 29N87W. A surface trough is also analyzed across the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche, with another surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is along and near each of these features. Moderate to fresh, locally strong NE winds and moderate seas are N and W of the front. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a trough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late Tue ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf through Wed before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, gradual development of a low E of Tampico is becoming more likely, and a a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. Regardless of development, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. Mariners should monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough over the W Caribbean supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of Cuba and Hispaniola as well as the adjacent coastal waters. Broad ridging over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong E to NE winds over the south-central and eastern Caribbean, as noted in recent scatterometer satellite data. Mostly moderate E to SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the Caribbean. For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will likely pulse to strong speeds at night through tonight. Afterward, a cold front will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin through Thu. High pressure is forecast to develop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly winds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri, then moderate to fresh Fri night through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary extending off the NE FL coast supports scattered moderate convection along the central and northern FL coast. In the central to eastern Atlantic, a surface trough SW of the Azores is interacting with an upper level low overhead to support showers along and near the trough axis. Elsewhere, broad ridging across the Atlantic supports gentle to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas across much of the basin. E winds are fresh to strong E of the Lesser Antilles, enhanced by a tropical wave in the region. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move slowly E over the area tonight and early Tue, stalling from Bermuda to NE Florida Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. Otherwise, by Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################