--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-22 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC220325_C_KWBC_20260822032612_4522426-1277-TWDAT.txt ****0000005942**** AXNT20 KNHC 220325 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 23W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 24N between 22W and 27W. A second tropical wave is along n eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. A third tropical wave has its axis along 56W south of 20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean along 79W south of 20N, moving westward at about 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N54W. The ITCZ extends from 10N46W to 11N54W. Outside of convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm on either side of the monsoon trough between 34W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure continues to dominate the Gulf region with a 1017 mb center near 24N89W. This pattern is supporting mainly light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. The highest seas of 3 ft are noted over the Bay of Campeche based on altimeter data. Convection has flared-up over parts of Florida, the north-central Gulf, and along the coast of Mexico roughly between Tuxpan and Veracruz. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered over the central Gulf will prevail into the middle of next week, supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas. A surface trough will generate fresh to strong winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the western half of the basin. Refer to the section above for details. The pressure gradient between weak high pressure centered S of Bermuda and low pressure over northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trades over the most of the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, with the exception of gentle winds over the NW part of the basin. Seas are moderate, except 7 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean and slight seas over the northwest Caribbean. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade winds flow is moving across the region producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the south- central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail over most of the rest of the basin, aside from the northwest basin where lesser winds will dominate. A tropical wave currently over the tropical Atlantic is expected to move across the eastern Caribbean Tue through early Wed, and across the eastern part of the central Caribbean during the rest of Wed. Another tropical wave may approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on Wed. These waves will enhance the trade wind flow across those waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical wave are moving westward between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. A trough is analyzed over Florida, reaching the W Atlantic from 29N78W to 27N80W. To the E, a 1021 mb high is centered near 26N72W. A weak 1018 mb low is centered east-southeast of Bermuda near 30N56W. A surface trough extends from the low center to 24N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near these features. A surface through is analyzed from 28N39W to 22N43W with scattered showers. Elsewhere west of 55W, the subtropical ridge dominates, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure between Bermuda and the central Bahamas near 25N67W. Fresh E to SE winds are funneling along the north coast of Hispaniola south of the ridge, supporting 3 to 5 ft seas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a ridge with a 1028 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 35N37W. This system supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft, except fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas off the coasts of Mauritania and Senegal. For the forecast west of 55W, the weak pressure gradient will support mostly light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of 23N into early next week. Moderate to fresh trades are expected south of about 23N, highest off northern Hispaniola, through the period. These trades may pulse to fresh to strong speeds off northern Hispaniola at night through most of the forecast period. Meanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas next week freshening the trade winds. Yet, the northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area Wed and Wed night increasing the trades over those waters. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC221010_C_KWBC_20260822101058_31523192-1437-TWDAT.txt ****0000006562**** AXNT20 KNHC 221010 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W south of 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 11N between 23W and 27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W south of 20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W south of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 80W south of 20N, It is moving westward near 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave is confined to the eastern Pacific waters just south of Panama, which is also where the eastern segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough is present. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N22W, and westward from there to 12N35W and to 12N46W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 09N55W. Outside of convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen within about 120 nm south of the trough between 39W and 44W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Relatively weak high pressure continues to dominate the basin as a weak 1018 mb high center is analyzed near 25N93W. This pattern is supporting mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft throughout. A trough extends from north-central Florida south-southwestward to just south of Tampa and into the eastern Gulf near 25N84W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf section while isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the north- central and west-central sections of the Gulf. A northeast to southwest oriented mid-level trough will help trigger off additional shower and thunderstorm over the NE Gulf today and tonight. For the forecast, the weak high pressure centered over the central Gulf will prevail into the middle portion of next week. Its related generally weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas. A surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south-central Caribbean. Seas in the range of 8 to 10 ft are with these winds as noted in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Overnight satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are of moderate state with these trades. Light to gentle trades are over the northwest part of the basin. Seas there are 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the eastern Caribbean from 11N to 15N east of 69W to the vicinity of the Windward Islands. Similar activity is over the far western part of the sea from 13N to 16N west of 82W to just inland Honduras and Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 13N between 80W and the coasts of Costa Rica and northern Panama. For the forecast, the pressure gradient in place will continue to support fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas primarily over the south-central Caribbean well into next week. Elsewhere across the basin, expect moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas through the period. The exception will be in the northwest portion of the basin, where light to gentle trades will change little through the period. A tropical wave currently over the tropical Atlantic is expected to move across the eastern Caribbean Tue through early Wed, and across the eastern part of the central Caribbean during the rest of Wed. Another tropical wave may approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on Wed. These waves will enhance the trade wind flow across those waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak 1016 mb low is near 29N56W, with a trough extending southwestward to near 28N61W. Another trough extends from the low northeastward to north of the area at 31N49W. Other troughs are analyzed from near 27N55W to 25N56W, and from near 27N41W to 22N47W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active near these features. Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature across the basin controlling the general wind regime throughout. A weak 1019 mb high center is located at 30N68W. A rather weak pressure gradient is allowing for light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of about 23N while moderate to fresh trades are south of 23N. Seas west of 45W and also north of 26N west of 24W are 3 to 5 ft per overnight satellite altimeter data passes and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 8 ft off the coasts of Mauritania and Senegal, where mostly fresh northeast winds are occurring. For the forecast west of 55W, the weak pressure gradient will support light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of about 23N through the period. Moderate to fresh trades are expected south of about 23N, with winds pulsing to strong speeds off northern Hispaniola at night well into next week. Meanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas next week freshening the trades. Yet, the northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area Wed and Wed night increasing the trades over those waters. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC221047_C_KWBC_20260822104758_31523192-1441-TWDAT.txt ****0000006564**** AXNT20 KNHC 221047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W south of 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 11N between 23W and 27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 46W south of 20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W south of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 80W south of 20N, It is moving westward near 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave is confined to the eastern Pacific waters just south of Panama, which is also where the eastern segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough is present. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 12N22W, and westward from there to 12N35W and to 12N46W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 09N55W. Outside of convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen within about 120 nm south of the trough between 39W and 44W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Relatively weak high pressure continues to dominate the basin as a weak 1018 mb high center is analyzed near 25N93W. This pattern is supporting mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft throughout. A trough extends from north-central Florida south-southwestward to just south of Tampa and into the eastern Gulf near 25N84W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf section while isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the north- central and west-central sections of the Gulf. A northeast to southwest oriented mid-level trough will help trigger off additional shower and thunderstorm over the NE Gulf today and tonight. For the forecast, the weak high pressure centered over the central Gulf will prevail into the middle portion of next week. Its related generally weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas. A surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south-central Caribbean. Seas in the range of 8 to 10 ft are with these trades as noted in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Overnight satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are of moderate state with these trades. Light to gentle trades are over the northwest part of the basin. Seas there are 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the eastern Caribbean from 11N to 15N east of 69W to the vicinity of the Windward Islands. Similar activity is over the far western part of the sea from 13N to 16N west of 82W to just inland Honduras and Nicaragua. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 13N between 80W and the coasts of Costa Rica and northern Panama. For the forecast, the pressure gradient in place will continue to support fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas primarily over the south-central Caribbean well into next week. Elsewhere across the basin, expect moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas through the period. The exception will be in the northwest portion of the basin, where light to gentle trades will change little through the period. A tropical wave currently over the tropical Atlantic is expected to move across the eastern Caribbean Tue through early Wed, and across the eastern part of the central Caribbean during the rest of Wed. Another tropical wave may approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on Wed. These waves will enhance the trade wind flow across those waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak 1016 mb low is near 29N56W, with a trough extending southwestward to near 28N61W. Another trough extends from the low northeastward to north of the area at 31N49W. Other troughs are analyzed from near 27N55W to 25N56W, and from near 27N41W to 22N47W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active near these features. Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature across the basin controlling the general wind regime throughout. A weak 1019 mb high center is located at 30N68W. A rather weak pressure gradient is allowing for light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of about 23N while moderate to fresh trades are south of 23N. Seas west of 45W and also north of 26N west of 24W are 3 to 5 ft per overnight satellite altimeter data passes and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 8 ft off the coasts of Mauritania and Senegal, where mostly fresh northeast winds are occurring. For the forecast west of 55W, the weak pressure gradient will support light to gentle winds over most of the waters north of about 23N through the period. Moderate to fresh trades are expected south of about 23N, with winds pulsing to strong speeds off northern Hispaniola at night well into next week. Meanwhile, the northern portion of a tropical wave is expected to move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas next week freshening the trades. Yet, the northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area Wed and Wed night increasing the trades over those waters. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC221450_C_KWBC_20260822145101_31523192-1457-TWDAT.txt ****0000005716**** AXNT20 KNHC 221450 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W south of 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 05N to 10N between 23W and 27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W south of 20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W south of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 81W south of 20N, It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from western Panama to eastern Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N28W, and northwestward from there to 13N45W and to 13N50W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 12N57W. No significant convection is noted outside of what is described in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough reaching from northern Georgia to the coast of Louisiana. Additional showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough off Veracruz in the southwest Gulf. Elsewhere, ridging prevails anchored by 1017 mb high pressure near 24N92W. This pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes and slight seas, except for moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas over the Bay of Campeche east of the trough in that area. For the forecast, the weak high pressure will remain centered over the basin through the middle of next week, leading to gentle to moderate winds and generally slight seas. A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings. These winds will spread westward away from the peninsula each overnight as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south-central Caribbean. Seas in the range of 8 to 9 ft are with these trades as noted in early morning satellite altimeter data passes. Overnight satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are of moderate state with these trades. Light to gentle trades are over the northwest part of the basin. Seas there are 2 to 3 ft. In addition to the showers and thunderstorms from western Panama to eastern Nicaragua described in the Tropical Wave section above, a cluster of showers and thunderstorms is active north of Bonaire in the southeast Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and Colombia low pressure will support fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through much of next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW basin. A pair of tropical waves crossing the basin next week lead to enhanced winds after their passages. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1021 mb high pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda near 28N70W dominates the far western Atlantic west of 60W. Moderate SE winds and 3-4 ft seas are noted off Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, with fresh winds and seas to 5 ft near the northern entrance to the Windward Passage. Moderate SW winds and 4 ft seas are noted off northeast Florida, with gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere west of 60W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active north of 25N and west of 70W, southeast of an upper trough over the eastern U.S. Farther east, a trough extends from the north- central Atlantic 1016 mb low pressure near 29N58W to 28N60W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active along this trough. A few thunderstorms are also active near a trough farther to the south extending from 28N55W to 25N57W. Elsewhere farther east, the basin in under the influence of broad 1027 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 36N40W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5-7 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominating the northern parts of the waters will support light to gentle winds N of 23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################