--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-01-21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC210429_C_KWBC_20260121043054_25559334-707-TWDAT.txt ****0000005744**** AXNT20 KNHC 210429 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jan 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1032 mb high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the middle of the week, before the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force at night through Thu morning. Rough seas are forecast with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Periods of heavy rainfall will continue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be likely. Please consult products from your local meteorological services for additional information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A strong ridge over the eastern United States forces fresh to locally near gale-force easterly winds and moderate to rough seas east of 90E, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found west of 90E to a line from southern Texas to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the United States supports fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. These marine conditions will persist through Wed. The next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Fri night into Sat followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front, may bring gale conditions first near Tampico, then near Veracruz on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a Gale Warning offshore Colombia. A shearline extends from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras. Fresh to strong NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail W of the shearline and north of 17N. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate seas are found off southern Hispaniola and NE Caribbean. Easterly swell is reaching the Atlantic water passages of the NE Caribbean, allowing for localized rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the United States will continue to promote fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas across the NW Caribbean through Wed. These winds are transporting abundant tropical moisture into northern Honduras supporting periods of locally heavy rainfall through mid-week. A surface trough, and associated area of moisture, will move across the Leeward Islands late on Wed, and over Puerto Rico on Thu, likely reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This is forecast to increase the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the islands and surrounding waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the discussion waters near 31N63W and continues to eastern Cuba. A few showers are noted near this boundary. The pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the eastern United States and the aforementioned front supports fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas west of the front and south of 29N. The remainder of the basin is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge SW of the Azores, forcing fresh to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to locally very rough seas south of 27N and east of 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Divergence aloft east of the Lesser Antilles sustains a large area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially from 14N to 20N and between 45W and 57W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of 65W through Thu. A stationary front extends from 31N64W to eastern Cuba. The front will lift N and gradually dissipate through Thu. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the SE of the United States and the front will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds over the western Atlantic W of the front, in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through Wed. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC211016_C_KWBC_20260121101735_12124482-4366-TWDAT.txt ****0000005573**** AXNT20 KNHC 211016 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Jan 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1030 mb high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the middle of the week, before the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force at night through Thu morning. Rough seas are forecast with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through today as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Periods of heavy rainfall will continue through early today in the Gulf and northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be likely. Please consult products from your local meteorological services for additional information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 03N24W. The ITCZ extends from 03N24W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ between 17W-36W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A strong surface ridge over the eastern United States forces fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas east of 90E, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found west of 90E to a line from southern Texas to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas will persist through today. The next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Fri night into Sat followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front, may bring gale conditions first near Tampico, then near Veracruz on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a Gale Warning offshore Colombia. A shearline extends from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras. Fresh to strong NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail W of the shearline and north of 17N. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate seas are found off southern Hispaniola and NE Caribbean. Easterly swell is reaching the Atlantic water passages of the NE Caribbean, allowing for localized rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the United States will continue to promote fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas across the NW Caribbean through today. These winds are transporting abundant tropical moisture into northern Honduras supporting periods of locally heavy rainfall. A surface trough, and associated area of moisture, will move across the Leeward Islands late today, and over Puerto Rico on Thu, likely reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This is forecast to increase the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the islands and surrounding waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the discussion waters near 31N63W and continues to eastern Cuba. To the W of this front, a weakening stationary front extends from 31N70W to 29N81W. Scattered showers are noted near these boundaries. The pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the eastern United States and the fronts supports fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas W of 68W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge SW of the Azores, forcing fresh to near gale- force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas south of 27N and east of 67W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Divergence aloft east of the Lesser Antilles sustains a large area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially from 14N to 20N and between 45W and 57W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of 67W through Thu. The stationary front in the W Atlantic will lift N and gradually dissipate through Thu, while the weakening front W of the aforementioned one will dissipate today. The pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through today. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC212104_C_KWBC_20260121210502_25559334-760-TWDAT.txt ****0000004438**** AXNT20 KNHC 212104 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Jan 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1028 mb high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the middle of the week, before the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force tonight through Thu morning. Rough seas are forecast with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 15W and 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is over the far SW Gulf, with high pressure dominating the remainder of the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the United States supports fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and moderate seas across most of the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. These marine conditions will persist through this evening. The next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Sat followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front, may bring near-gale to gale conditions first near Tampico Sun night, then near Veracruz on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, prevail over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, gale force NE winds will pulse tonight through early Thu morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Thu night through Fri early morning winds will pulse to near gale force in the same area. Strong high pressure over the SE of the United States will continue to promote fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate seas across the NW Caribbean through this evening. These winds are transporting abundant tropical moisture into northern Honduras supporting periods of locally heavy rainfall. A surface trough, and associated area of moisture, will move across the Leeward Islands this evening, and over Puerto Rico on Thu, likely reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This is forecast to increase the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the islands and surrounding waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda to over central Cuba. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-10 ft prevail W of the front. The remainder of the Atlantic discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 32N44W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are in the vicinity of the high. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-12 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of 65W through Thu. A stationary front extends from 31N59W to western Cuba. This front will lift N and gradually dissipate through Thu. The pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through this evening. The next cold front will likely move offshore NE FL Mon. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong SW winds are possible on Sun night, W of 75W. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################