--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC030423_C_KWBC_20261003042403_31523192-5386-TWDAT.txt ****0000006379**** AXNT20 KNHC 030423 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 41W from 05N to 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis mainly S of 12N. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 74W from 07N to 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 09N25W to 08N35W, then resumes from 09N44W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 15N between 44W and 54W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper-level low spinning over the Bay of Campeche supports numerous showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Gulf region. Convection is currently flared-up over the Yucatan Peninsula, and also along the coast of Mexico south of Tampico. A surface trough is analyzed over the central Gulf and runs from 29N90W to a 1007 mb low pres near 19N95W. The pressure gradient between this trough and high pressure located over the western Atlantic is allowing for mostly fresh east to southeast winds to exist across the central and eastern Gulf waters. Light to gentle winds are occurring west of the trough axis. Seas are generally moderate, except in the Bay of Campeche where seas in the 1 to 3 ft range are noted. For the forecast, the upper-level low will sustain scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the eastern and central Gulf through the weekend. A moderate pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressures in the Gulf will support moderate to locally strong SE winds over much of the eastern half of the Gulf into Sun. A weak cold front is expected to move across the NW Gulf this weekend, and stall from the Florida panhandle to NW Gulf and to the SW by late Sun. Weak low pressure may ride up along the front during the weekend and into Mon enhancing winds some in the NW Gulf and in the north-central Gulf. The front will remain stationary into midweek. Fresh to strong NE winds are expected behind the front beginning Tue, mainly in the NE and north-central Gulf, as strong high pressure builds southward behind it. Light to moderate are generally expected across the basin through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low currently over the Bay of Campeche is pulling up abundant deep tropical moisture across the far western Caribbean and northern Central America where scattered showers and thunderstorms are present. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of the Caribbean Sea with moderate seas. Showers and thunderstorms are seen over parts of the Greater Antilles. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. For the forecast, the upper-level low over the Bay of Campeche and abundant deep tropical moisture will support scattered shower and thunderstorm activity into Sat morning across the far western Caribbean. A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean, and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will bring fresh to locally strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun through early next week leading to gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Trades may pulse to fresh to strong speeds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Mon night. Of note, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms are possible across Hispaniola this weekend, particularly over Haiti and western Hispaniola. A mid-upper level trough will deepen toward Hispaniola and develop a closed circulation near the island by Sun. This combined with available moisture and local effects as daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting will likely increase the chances of rain in the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough located several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda from 28N64W to 20N69W. Scatterometer data indicate the wind shift associated with trough axis, with moderate NE to E winds N of 25N and W of the trough axis to 65W. To the E, another trough is analyzed from 31N51W to 27N61W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the trough. The remainder of the forecast area is under the influence of a ridge, with high pressure centers just N of the area. Moderate to fresh E winds are observed just offshore Hispaniola, and between eastern Cuba and the Bahamas with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds prevail with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across the waters west of 75W through at least Sat. Meanwhile, the combination of a trough SE of Bermuda and a broad upper-level trough digging southward will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend north of about 22N and east of 70W. Trades just north of Hispaniola will pulse to fresh to occasionally strong speeds tonight and on Sat night. Otherwise, rather tranquil conditions are expected through Wed. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning and stall. Strong high pressure will nudge southward behind the front with the resultant pressure gradient between it and the front likely to induce strong NE winds, with potential to near gale force, and along with building seas offshore NE Florida. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC030940_C_KWBC_20261003094106_31523192-5408-TWDAT.txt ****0000005526**** AXNT20 KNHC 030940 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0925 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are observed near the wave axis mainly S of 13N. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 20N, moving westward at 115 kt. A few showers are noted near the northern portion of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 08N39W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 04N to 16N and between 37W and 57W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper-level low spinning over the Bay of Campeche supports numerous showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf waters, and isolated to scattered showers elsewhere. The pressure gradient between a surface trough along 93W and a high pressure system north of Bermuda sustain moderate to locally strong SE winds over the Gulf E of 93W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail W of 93W. For the forecast, the aforementioned upper-level low will sustain scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over much of the Gulf through the weekend. A moderate pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and a surface trough in the central Gulf will support moderate to locally strong SE winds over much of the eastern half of the Gulf into Sun. A weak cold front is expected to move across the NW Gulf this weekend, and stall from the Florida panhandle to NW Gulf and to the SW by late Sun. Weak low pressure may ride up along the front during the weekend and into Mon enhancing winds some in the NW Gulf and in the north-central Gulf. The front will remain stationary into midweek. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected behind the front beginning Tue, mainly in the NE and north-central Gulf, as strong high pressure builds southward behind it. Light to moderate are generally expected across the basin through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found off Yucatan and in the SW Caribbean Sea. Similar activity is noted over and around Hispaniola and Cuba. A broad subtropical ridge north of the area supports moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft across much of the basin, except for slight to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will force fresh to locally strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. As a frontal boundary reaches the waters north of the Bahamas, the pressure gradient will slacken again from Sun through the middle of next week leading to gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Trades may pulse to fresh speeds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela Mon night. Of note, locally heavy rain and a few strong thunderstorms are possible across Hispaniola this weekend, particularly over Haiti and western Hispaniola. A mid-upper level trough will deepen toward Hispaniola and develop a closed circulation near the island by Sun. This combined with available moisture and local effects as daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain upslope lifting will likely increase the chances of rain in the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The interaction between a surface trough extending from 31N52W to near Hispaniola and an upper trough over the western Atlantic promote scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms within 120 nm on both sides of the trough axis. High pressure north of Bermuda supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas across much of the SW North Atlantic, W of 55W. In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, high pressure centered west of France sustains moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas between 30W and 55W. E of 30W and north of the monsoon trough, a tighter pressure gradient allows for moderate to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-10 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the combination of a trough extending from SE of Bermuda to Hispaniola and a broad upper-level trough digging southward will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend between Bermuda and the Caribbean. High pressure will support mainly moderate easterly winds and moderate seas through the forecast period S of 30N. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the waters off of NE Florida Tue morning and stall. Strong high pressure will nudge southward behind the front with the resultant pressure gradient between it and the front likely to induce strong NE winds, with potential to near gale force, and along with building seas offshore NE Florida. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################