--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC160424_C_KWBC_20260816042455_31523192-925-TWDAT.txt ****0000006839**** AXNT20 KNHC 160424 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient remains tighten between surface ridging over the western Atlantic and lower pressure in northern South America. This is supporting gale- force northeast to east winds off Colombia through Sun morning. Expect rough to very rough seas to near 15 ft near and downwind of these winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Heavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two tropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next several days. The wave will interact with enhanced divergence aloft and an active monsoon trough. The first wave is located near 87W. As this wave continues westward, expect heavy precipitation to continue in Costa Rica, the Darien region of Panama and into Choco-Colombia on into Sun. On Sun, the second tropical wave will enter the western Caribbean and strengthen the cyclonic rotation over Panama and Colombia that will favor an increase in available moisture into Colombia and moist easterly flow into the eastern portion of Costa Rica. The heaviest precipitation is expected in Costa Rica through early on Sun, while the heaviest precipitation is expected in southwest Panama, the Darien Region, and Choco-Colombia Sun into Monday. There is some uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall could reach, particularly due to how far south the available moisture and the westerly flow enters the region. Please refer to the WPC International Desk and local weather services for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from 05N to 21N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave S of 13N to near 33W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W from 04N to 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the wave environment. An eastern Caribbean strong tropical wave is along 67W south of 21N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on either side of the wave axis. The northern extension of a tropical wave is analyzed along 87W and south of 22N, moving westward at 15 kt. The convection related to this feature is confined to the EPAC waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and extends southwestward to 08N47W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N53W and to near 10N60W. Convection is discussed in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1021 mb high is centered over the north-central Gulf near 29N88W. Its related gradient is supporting gentle to moderate winds across the forecast waters. Seas over the basin are 2 to 4 ft. Fresh winds are occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche, as a surface trough extends across the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the high pressure center will remain over the north- central Gulf through Mon, then moves toward the SE Gulf by Tue while weakening some. This pattern will continue to support mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night, as the diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in effect for the waters offshore Colombia. Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Outside of the gale area, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas are over most of the Caribbean south of 18N. Moderate to fresh trades continue over the remainder of the waters along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, the ridge N of the area combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds over most of the east and central Caribbean through Sun. Peak winds to minimal gale-force are expected offshore Colombia tonight into early Sun morning. The tropical wave along 67W, will continue to impact the eastern and portions of the central Caribbean tonight. Fresh to strong winds, moderate to rough seas and heavy rain will be associated with the wave, forecast to move across the central Caribbean through Mon, reaching the NW part of the basin Mon night into Tue. Another tropical wave will approach the Leeward Islands by Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure, anchored by a 1022 mb high center south-southwest of Bermuda near 26N71W continues across the basin. Latest satellite Ascat scatterometer data indicates fresh northeast winds along the coast of western Sahara and through the Canary Islands. Seas are around 6 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, latest satellite scatterometer data passes reveal moderate or weaker trades. Seas are about 4 to 6 ft with these trades. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 28N and W of 53W. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N59W to 27N64W. The base of a broad upper-level trough translating eastward is north of 31N between 50W and 70W, with impulses riding along it from west to east. This activity is also south of a frontal boundary well north of the area. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined with the passage of two tropical waves through the Caribbean Sea will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including the approaches and in the Windward Passage through Sun night. A cold front will slowly push across the northern forecast border east of 70W late on Sun, and move across the northern forecast waters on Mon while dissipating into a trough by Tue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front and E of 70W on Sun and Sun night. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC161059_C_KWBC_20260816110005_4522426-755-TWDAT.txt ****0000006474**** AXNT20 KNHC 161059 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Aug 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Precipitation in South Central America and Colombia: Two tropical waves will propagate into Central America over the next several days. The waves will interact with enhanced divergence aloft and an active monsoon trough. The first wave is located near 88W. As this wave continues westward, expect heavy precipitation to continue in Costa Rica, the Darien region of Panama and into Choco-Colombia into Sun. The second tropical wave will enter the western Caribbean tonight into Mon and strengthen the cyclonic rotation over Panama and Colombia, which will favor an increase in available moisture into Colombia and moist easterly flow into the eastern portion of Costa Rica. The heaviest precipitation is expected in Costa Rica through this morning, while the heaviest precipitation is expected in southwest Panama, the Darien Region, and Choco-Colombia late today into Monday. There is some uncertainty on how far south the heaviest rainfall could reach, particularly due to how far south the available moisture and the westerly flow enters the region. Please refer to the WPC International Desk and local weather services for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is west of the Cape Verde Islands extending from 07N to 19N with axis near 31W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 15N between 25W and 37W. A tropical wave is over the central waters, extending from 04N to 20N with axis near 47W, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 14N between 46W and 52W. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 69W south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate tothe approaches to the Windward Passagestrong convection is from 12N to 19N between 66W and 73W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W, and extends southwestward to 11N30W to 10N41W. The ITCZ begins near 09N48W and continues to 07N58W. Aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is offshore W Africa from 06N to 14N between 11W and 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1021 mb high is over the Florida Panhandle coastal waters extending a ridge axis southward to 23N. A generally weak pressure gradient supports light to gentle variable winds and slight seas N of 23N. Over the SW Gulf, a surface trough moves across the Bay of Campeche enhancing winds to moderate speeds and building seas from slight to moderate. Scattered showers are offshore Veracruz, ahead of the trough. For the forecast, a center of high pressure will remain over the north-central Gulf through Mon, then moves toward the SE Gulf by Tue while weakening some. This pattern will continue to support mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin, with pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night, as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The main feature over the basin is a tropical wave moving across Hispaniola and central Caribbean this morning, which is bringging strong winds, rough seas and heavy showers to this region. Scattered moderate convection is across the Costa Rica and Panama offshores associated with the eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon. Fresh to strong trade winds are across much of the basin along with moderate to rough seas, except for moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the NW Caribbean where seas are moderate. This is due to a relatively strong gradient of pressure over the region influenced by high pressure E of the Bahamas. This is also accelerating the winds across the Windward Passage to strong speeds, which has built seas to 9 ft. For the forecast, surface ridging N of the area combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds over most of the east, central and SW Caribbean through this evening. A strong tropical wave, with axis near 68W, will impact the central Caribbean today through Mon. Fresh to strong winds, moderate to rough seas and locally heavy rain will be associated with the wave, forecast to reach the western part of the basin Mon night into Tue. Another tropical wave will approach the Leeward Islands by Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical Atlantic waters remain under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High, which is supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds, except across the Great Bahama Bank, the approaches to the Windward Passage, and the adjacent waters of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola S of 23N where winds are moderate to fresh from the E, except locally strong in the the approaches to the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are also ongoing over the NE offshore waters N of 28N and E of 74W ahead of an approaching cold front which is also generating scattered showers and tstms over this region. Moderate seas are across the western, central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High, combined with the passage of a tropical wave through the Caribbean Sea will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds south of 22N including the approaches and in the Windward Passage through tonight. Looking ahead, a cold front will slowly push across the northern forecast border east of 70W late today, and move across the northern forecast waters on Mon while dissipating into a trough by Tue. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are expected ahead of the front and E of 70W today and tonight. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################