--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-02-27 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC270406_C_KWBC_20260227040620_29294990-8717-TWDAT.txt ****0000004942**** AXNT20 KNHC 270406 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Feb 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING for the Canarias Offshore Zone. The forecast calls for N to NE winds to Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale, with severe gusts between the Canary Islands through at least 28/0000 UTC. Seas currently range from 12 to 15 ft. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2 Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas remain 8 to 11 ft in NW swell across all central and eastern Atlantic waters east of 60W based on several altimeter passes. One of them, shows seas of 10 to 14 ft N of 14N and E of 20W. Another swell event with very rough seas will reach the Madeira and Canary Islands early next week. Widespread fresh to strong trade winds, with surges to near-gale force, will sustain 8 to 11 ft seas elsewhere, as strong subtropical high pressure maintains a tight pressure gradient across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic near 07N12W to 04N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04S39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 04N and E of 29W. GULF OF AMERICA... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, and provides for moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the basin. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across the northern half of the Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly return flow across the west and central portions of the Gulf will gradually diminish tonight ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf early Fri. This front is expected to sink slowly southward across the north half of the Gulf Fri through Sat night and gradually dissipate. High pressure N of the Gulf will build back across the basin Sun into early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia. Seas are 8 to 9 ft with the strongest winds. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean while mainly moderate SE winds with moderate seas are noted over the NW part of the basin. Seas are locally higher, to 8 ft, within Atlantic Passage between the Lesser Antilles and the Mona Passage, due to long period northerly swell from the Atlantic. For the forecast, the broad ridge over the central Atlantic will continue to extend into the Caribbean Sea through the forecast period, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean. Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through early next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect E of 35W, and a Significant Swell Event continues to affect the waters over the central and eastern Atlantic. Please, see the Special Features section above for more information. High pressure dominates the entire Atlantic forecast waters with a 1035 mb center located W of the Azores. Under the influence of this system, fresh to strong NE to E winds are noted across most the waters E of 55W with moderate to fresh winds W of 55W. A surface trough is analyzed from 30N64W to 24N66W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW swell dominate the waters E of a line from 31N44W to 20N67W. Seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters. Rough seas prevail over the SE waters. Areal coverage of these rough seas will gradually decrease through Thu night, with a smaller area of rough seas continuing over portions of the SE waters through the end of the period. A weak front will shift off the SE U.S. coast early Sat and move slowly southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through Sun night before dissipating. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC271000_C_KWBC_20260227100114_16515500-8418-TWDAT.txt ****0000004736**** AXNT20 KNHC 271000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Feb 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING for the Canarias Offshore Zone. The forecast calls for N to NE winds to Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale, with severe gusts between the Canary Islands through at least 28/0000 UTC. These winds are producing rough seas. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2 Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A robust high pressure system over the Azores supports fresh to near gale- force trade winds and rough to very rough seas across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. These wind waves are mixing with a decaying swell in the area. The rough to very rough seas will spread westward over the next few days, peaking around 14 ft Sat night to Sun. Seas will diminish by midweek. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 04S37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 08N and east of 27W. GULF OF AMERICA... A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the Gulf of America, supporting mainly moderate southerly winds across the basin. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, moderate southerly return flow in the Gulf will gradually diminish this morning ahead of a cold front approaching the NW Gulf. This front will reach the basin this morning, slowly sink southward across the northern half of the Gulf through Sat night and gradually dissipate. High pressure N of the Gulf will build back across the basin Sun into early next week, supporting moderate to fresh winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient across the central Caribbean Sea sustain fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a broad ridge over the central Atlantic will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean over the next several days. Building ridge by the middle of next week may result in near gale-force winds off Colombia. Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through early next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect E of 35W, and a Significant Swell Event continues to affect the waters over the central and eastern Atlantic. Please, see the Special Features section above for more information. A robust 1035 mb high pressure system over the Azores extends to the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found west of 75W. The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa result in fresh to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas prevail over the SE waters. A weak front will shift off the SE U.S. coast early Sat and move slowly southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through Sun night before dissipating. Another cold front will enter the northern waters early next week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas are forecast behind the front Mon night through Tue night north of 27N. The subtropical ridge will build by the middle of next week, resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC271027_C_KWBC_20260227102814_16515500-8420-TWDAT.txt ****0000004736**** AXNT20 KNHC 271027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Feb 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING for the Canarias Offshore Zone. The forecast calls for N to NE winds to Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale, with severe gusts between the Canary Islands through at least 28/0000 UTC. These winds are producing rough seas. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2 Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A robust high pressure system over the Azores supports fresh to near gale- force trade winds and rough to very rough seas across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. These wind waves are mixing with a decaying swell in the area. The rough to very rough seas will spread westward over the next few days, peaking around 14 ft Sat night to Sun. Seas will diminish by midweek. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 04S37W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 08N and east of 27W. GULF OF AMERICA... A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the Gulf of America, supporting mainly moderate southerly winds across the basin. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, moderate southerly return flow in the Gulf will gradually diminish this morning ahead of a cold front approaching the NW Gulf. This front will reach the basin this morning, slowly sink southward across the northern half of the Gulf through Sat night and gradually dissipate. High pressure N of the Gulf will build back across the basin Sun into early next week, supporting moderate to fresh winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient across the central Caribbean Sea sustain fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a broad ridge over the central Atlantic will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean over the next several days. Building ridge by the middle of next week may result in near gale-force winds off Colombia. Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through early next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect E of 35W, and a Significant Swell Event continues to affect the waters over the central and eastern Atlantic. Please, see the Special Features section above for more information. A robust 1035 mb high pressure system over the Azores extends to the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found west of 75W. The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa result in fresh to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas prevail over the SE waters. A weak front will shift off the SE U.S. coast early Sat and move slowly southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through Sun night before dissipating. Another cold front will enter the northern waters early next week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas are forecast behind the front Mon night through Tue night north of 27N. The subtropical ridge will build by the middle of next week, resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC271838_C_KWBC_20260227183825_29294990-8753-TWDAT.txt ****0000005196**** AXNT20 KNHC 271838 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Feb 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING for the Canarias Marine Zone at least through 28/1200 UTC, and for Agadir and Tarfaya marine zones from 27/18Z to 28/12Z. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2 Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A robust high pressure system near the Azores is maintaining fresh to near gale-force trade winds across the eastern Atlantic. Wind waves generated by these winds along with residual N swell will continue to create 12 to 14 ft seas from 17N to 28N between 17W and 35W. These very rough seas are expected to gradually progress southwestward into the tropical central Atlantic over the next few days. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea north of Conakry, then extends southwestward to 04N20W. An ITCZ continues from 04N20W across 00N30W to near Fortaleza, Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 00N to 06N and east of 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough extends southward from a 1012 mb low near the southern Louisiana/Mississippi border to south of New Orleans. Scattered moderate convection seen at the east-central Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge maintains its influence over the rest of the Gulf. Moderate S winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate the south-central and eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas in moderate southerly swell previal for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, moderate southerly return flow in the Gulf will gradually diminish this morning ahead of a cold front approaching the northwestern Gulf. This front will reach the basin this morning, slowly sink southward across the northern half of the Gulf through Sat night and gradually dissipate. High pressure north of the Gulf will build back across the basin Sun into early next week, supporting moderate to fresh winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient sustains fresh to strong easterly winds and 8 to 10 ft seas at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and 6 to 8 ft are noted at the north-central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, a road central Atlantic high pressure extends westward across the Gulf of America. Mainly moderate southerly return flow across the west and central portions of the Gulf will gradually diminish this morning ahead of a cold front that is approaching the NW Gulf. This front will reach the basin this morning, slowly move southward across the northern half of the Gulf through Sat night and gradually dissipate. High pressure north of the area will build back across the basin Sun into early next week supporting moderate to fresh winds. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for A Gale Warning is at the northwest find. A robust 1037 mb Azores high pressure system ssythemthe Azores extends to the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found west of 75W. The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa result in fresh to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central Atlantic continues to maintain control of the general weather pattern while rough seas prevail over the SE waters. A weak front will emerge off the southeastern U.S. coast early Sat, and move slowly southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through Sun night before dissipating. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern waters early next week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas are forecast behind the front Mon night through Tue night north of 27N. High pressure will build by the middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC272322_C_KWBC_20260227232318_16515500-8454-TWDAT.txt ****0000005750**** AXNT20 KNHC 272322 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Feb 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Canarias and Agadir Marine Zones of Meteo France. The forecast calls for NE winds to Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale, with severe gusts between the Canary Islands through at least 01/0000 UTC. Seas currently range from 9 to 13 ft N of 10N and E of 30W based on a recent altimeter pass. Higher seas of 12 to 15 ft are possible just N of the Canary Islands. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2 Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A robust high pressure system near the Azores is maintaining fresh to near gale-force trade winds across the eastern and central Atlantic. Wind waves generated by these winds along with residual NW swell continue to create seas of 8 to 11 ft across most of the waters between 30W and 60W based on several altimeter passes. This swell event, with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range will persist over the next few days. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 11N15W, then extends southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to the coast of Brazil near 04S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 00N to 06N E of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from near Panama City, Florida southwestward to 28N93W and to inland South Texas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front over the NE Gulf associated with a pre-frontal trough. This convective activity is further supported by a rather broad upper-level trough that is shifting eastward over the central Gulf. This convection extends over northern Florida. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are ahead of the front, mainly E of 90W. Similar wind speeds are over the eastern Bay of Campeche while light winds dominate the remainder of the Gulf region. Seas are in general 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slow down as it shifts east-southeastward across the northern half of the basin into Sat, and to east of the basin Sat night while weakening. A strong high pressure will build west-southwestward over the area from the N Atlantic beginning on Sun night, with the related gradient generally supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 9 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean while mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas are noted over the NW part of the basin. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted across the Atlantic passages in the NE Caribbean. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean over the next several days. The same weather pattern will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia at night Mon through Wed, and fresh to strong trades elsewhere across most of the central and eastern portions of the basin. Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through early next week, with seas to 12 ft possibly near 55W. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale warning is in effect E of 35W. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. A strong high pressure of 1035 mb, located near the Azores, extends a ridge across the entire Atlantic forecast waters. The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa result in fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds and moderate seas are observed on the western periphery of the ridge N of the NW Bahamas and E of Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak front will emerge off the southeastern U.S. coast early on Sat, and move slowly southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through Sun night before dissipating. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern waters early next week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas are forecast behind the front Mon night through Tue night north of 27N along with seas to around 12 ft near 31N between 50W and 67W. High pressure will build by the middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################