--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-29 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC290312_C_KWBC_20260829031235_38011292-892-TWDAT.txt ****0000005946**** AXNT20 KNHC 290312 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly will approach waters east of the Leeward Islands Sat as a strong tropical wave, bringing gale conditions and very rough seas. Strong winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms will spread into the far NE Caribbean, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico late this weekend into early next week in association with this tropical wave. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 28W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only a few showers are near the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 48W, south of 20N, moving westward around 15 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure, remnants of T.S. Dolly, is along the wave axis near 15N48W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is within about 150 nm NW quadrant of low center. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are noted on either side of the wave axis per scatterometer and altimeter data covering the waters from 13N to 20N between 40W and 50W. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 78W, moving westward at around 20 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over parts of eastern Cuba and Jamaica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 10N23W to 06N34W. The ITCZ extends from 06N34W to 09N45W. Convection is limited. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are affecting the norther Gulf waters, mainly N of 26N. This convective activity is ahead of a surface trough, that extends from a 1014 mb low pressure located near 29N87W to 27N90W to 28N94W. A weak ridge dominates the remainder of the basin. Under this pattern, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf waters through early next week, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. A nearly- stationary front will meander near the northern Gulf waters during the next few days producing a few thunderstorms. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher seas associated with the stronger thunderstorms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly will approach waters east of the Leeward Islands Sat as a strong tropical wave, bringing gale conditions and very rough seas. Strong winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms will spread into the far NE Caribbean, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico late this weekend into early next week in association with this tropical wave. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support strong trades and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean this weekend. These winds will diminish some early next week as the aforementioned tropical wave disrupts the pressure gradient, but will increase again by the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in affect in association the remnants of Dolly. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, dot the waters between Bermuda and the Bahamas, particularly N of 22N and W of 65W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, anchored on a 1029 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 36N32W. The ridge supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the SW North Atlantic. Aside from the winds and seas associated with the remnants of Dolly, fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are evident N of 20N and E of 18N to the coast of W Africa, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere under the influence of the ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, the strong tropical wave associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly will bring strong winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms across the waters S of 22N as it approaches the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late this weekend and spreads toward Hispaniola early next week. Elsewhere, the subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola each night. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC290421_C_KWBC_20260829042135_38011292-896-TWDAT.txt ****0000007490**** AXNT20 KNHC 290421 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly have opened up into a trough at the surface, and is now a tropical wave along about 51W. This system is passing directly south of the Atlantic subtropical ridge, and producing gale-force winds to 35 kt, from 16.5N to 17.5N between 49W and 51W. Peaks seas there are estimated at 14 ft. This tropical wave will approach the waters east of the Leeward Islands late Sat as a strong tropical wave, with winds expected to diminish to 25-30 kt by then, and below gale conditions. Strong winds with gusts to gale- force, rough seas, accompanied by squalls and thunderstorms will spread into the far NE Caribbean, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico and the adjacent waters Sat evening into early next week in association with this tropical wave. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 30W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is around the periphery of this wave, as Saharan Air dominates the area N of 11N. A tropical wave, the remnants of Dolly, is along 50W, south of 21N, moving westward around 20 kt. A few clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted from 15N to 19N between 49.5W and 53.5W. Gale-force winds accompany this wave. See description above in the Special Features section for more details. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean, along 64W and south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13.5N to 17N between 63W and 65W. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis near 79W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave appears to be enhancing convection over parts of central and eastern Cuba and Jamaica. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the south portion of this wave from 09N to 11.5N between 78W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19.5N16.5W to 10N20W to 07N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N34W to 15N50W, then resumes from 11N54W to 09.5N61W. Associated convection is described above with the tropical waves. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Showers and thunderstorms affecting the norther Gulf waters N of 26N have diminished significantly in recent hours, with only widely scattered moderate convection now occurring mainly N of 26N and E of 91W. This activity is occurring south of a stalled frontal boundary across the Gulf coast states along 32N. Also, over the Gulf waters, a 1014 mb low is located near 29.5N87W with a surface trough extending W-SW to near 28N91W. A weak ridge dominates the remainder of the basin. Under this pattern, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas 3 ft or less prevail. For the forecast, weak will persist across the Gulf waters through early next week, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. A nearly- stationary front will meander near the northern Gulf waters during the next few days producing thunderstorms along and to the south of the front. Mariners can expect gusty winds and higher seas associated with the stronger thunderstorms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic subtropical ridge extends across the central Atlantic along about 36N then SW to coastal Georgia along 31N. The pressure gradient south of this ridge supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas to 9 ft in the south- central Caribbean, to around 30 kt across the Gulf of Venezuela and NE Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean, Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring in the SW Caribbean ahead of a tropical wave. For the forecast, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly are now a strong tropical wave moving quickly westward, and will cross 55W Sat morning. This tropical wave will then approach the waters east of the Leeward Islands late Sat, bringing strong winds with gale-force wind gusts, rough seas, and accompanied by squalls and thunderstorms that will spread across the far NE Caribbean, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the adjacent waters Sat evening into early next week. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support strong trades and rough seas over the south- central Caribbean this weekend. These winds will diminish some early next week as the aforementioned tropical wave disrupts the pressure gradient, but will increase again by the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in affect in association the remnants of Dolly, now a tropical wave along 51W. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, dot the waters between Bermuda and the Bahamas, particularly N of 23N and W of 67W. Converging middle level winds and a diffluent pattern aloft are helping to induce this convective activity. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, anchored on a pair of surface highs, one 1030 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 37N32W, and a second 1027 mb high near 36N52W. The ridge supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the SW North Atlantic S of 26N and W of 35W. Farther E, fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas prevail N of 18N and E of 24N to the coast of W Africa, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere to 35W, under the influence of the ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, the strong tropical wave associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly will bring strong winds, rough seas, squalls and thunderstorms waters S of 23N as it moves across the southeastern zones E through NE of the Leeward Islands late Sat through Sun, and then reaches the Atlantic waters near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico early Sun through Sun night, and spreads toward Hispaniola Sun night through Mon. Elsewhere, the subtropical ridge will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters over the next several days supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola each night. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC291103_C_KWBC_20260829110332_21889468-661-TWDAT.txt ****0000006741**** AXNT20 KNHC 291103 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1055 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, is along 53W, south of 21N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 14N to 21N and between 50W and 57W. Strong to gale-force winds are found in the northern semicircle, along with rough to very rough seas, peaking around 13 ft (4 m). This tropical wave will approach the waters east of the Leeward Islands late today as a strong tropical wave, with winds expected to diminish to 25-30 kt by then, below gale conditions. Strong winds with gusts to gale-force, rough seas, accompanied by squalls and thunderstorms will spread into the far NE Caribbean, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico and the adjacent waters Sat evening into early next week in association with this tropical wave. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 32W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean, along 67W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 64W and 70W. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean, along 81W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W to 08N31W. The ITCZ extends from 05N35W to 10N52W, then resumes from 10N56W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is present near the monsoon trough in the eastern Atlantic. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak low pressure system in the northern Gulf waters and divergence aloft are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the basin east of 90W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are noted in the Bay of Campeche, while weaker winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak area of low pressure over the northern Gulf waters is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. These storms may produce gusty winds and higher seas. This system is expected to remain nearly stationary over the next several days. The low pressure has a low chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours and 7 days. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and slight seas over much of the basin through the middle of next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in affect in association the remnants of Dolly. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details. High pressure north of the area forces fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and also in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a strong tropical wave, associated with the remnants of Dolly, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. This system will also bring gale conditions and rough to very rough seas to the area east of the Lesser Antilles today. Strong winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms will spread into the far NE Caribbean, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight into early next week. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support strong trades and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean this weekend. These winds will diminish some early next week as the aforementioned tropical wave disrupts the pressure gradient, but will increase again by the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in affect in association the remnants of Dolly. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are found across the waters between Bermuda and the Bahamas, particularly west of 65W. Converging middle level winds and a diffluent pattern aloft are helping to induce this convective activity. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, anchored on a pair of surface highs north of our waters. The ridge supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters south of 26N and west of 35W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas prevail N of 18N and E of 24N to the coast of west Africa, including the Canary Islands. Primarily moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere to 35W, under the influence of the ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, a strong tropical wave, associated with the remnants of Dolly, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. This system will also bring strong winds and rough to locally very rough seas to the SE waters today. These conditions will spread into the far NE Caribbean, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight into Mon and toward Hispaniola early next week. Elsewhere, abundant moisture and an unstable atmosphere generate scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 65W. Similar conditions are expected through early next week. At the surface, the subtropical ridge will dominate the basin supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in the remainder of the forecast waters. However, winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola through Sun night. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC291708_C_KWBC_20260829170935_21889468-682-TWDAT.txt ****0000006264**** AXNT20 KNHC 291708 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall: A strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, is along 55.5W, south of 21N, moving westward at 20 to 25 kt. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 15.5N to 21N and between 53W and 57W. Scattered showers are also found from 09N to 12N between 51W and 56W. This tropical wave will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola Mon. This wave will bring strong to near gale force winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to nearby waters S of 23N. Islands local topography could enhance orographic lift and support additional rainfall, varying by island. Peak rainfall rates are expected from Sat night through Sun. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and your local weather service office for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 33W, south of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean, along 68.5W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 67W and 70W. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean, along 82W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16.5W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 10N52W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is present near the monsoon trough in the eastern Atlantic and near the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak low pressure system in the northern Gulf waters and divergence aloft are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the basin east of 90W. Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the Gulf waters, except for locally moderate E winds over the Bay of Campeche. Seas 1 to 3 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, weak low pressure about 100 nm offshore Mobile Bay will continue to produce scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally higher seas as it drifts west over the next few days. This low has a low chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas into into late next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall information associated to a strong tropical wave that will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight. High pressure north of the area forces fresh to locally strong easterly winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and also in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a strong tropical wave will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola Mon. This wave will bring strong to near gale force winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to nearby waters. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support strong trades and rough seas over the south- central Caribbean this weekend. These winds will diminish slightly early next week as the aforementioned tropical wave disrupts the pressure gradient. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information about a strong tropical wave moving across the Atlantic. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are found across the waters between Bermuda and the Bahamas, particularly west of 68W. Converging middle level winds and a diffluent pattern aloft are helping to induce this convective activity. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, anchored on a pair of surface highs north of our waters. The ridge supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters south of 26N and west of 35W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas prevail N of 21N and E of 23N to the coast of west Africa, including the Canary Islands. Primarily moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere to 35W, under the influence of the ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, a strong tropical wave will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola Mon. This wave will bring strong to near gale force winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to nearby waters S of 23N. Elsewhere, deep tropical moisture and an upper-level trough will aide in scattered moderate convection W of 70W into early next week. At the surface, the subtropical ridge will dominate the basin supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in the remainder of the forecast waters. However, winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola through Sun night. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################