--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2025-11-25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC250543_C_KWBC_20251125054344_29294990-759-TWDAT.txt ****0000005518**** AXNT20 KNHC 250543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Nov 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11.5N16W and continues southwestward to 11N18.5W. The ITCZ extends from 11N18.5W to 09N58W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring east of 30W from 05N to 20N, with fresh to strong NE winds occurring in the strongest convection. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring W of 50W between 15N and the coast of South America. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak stationary front extends from the Big Bend of Florida to near 29N86W, where it transitions to a warm front that extends into SE Louisiana. No significant convection is seen with these fronts. For the forecast, a cold front is approaching the NW Gulf waters, along with strong showers and thunderstorms. A warm front is lifting northward over the NE Gulf ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast tonight supported by the gradient between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of the aforementioned cold front. A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early Wed, then move into the NW Gulf. The cold front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by Thu night into Fri, followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the frontal boundary. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft continues to support widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras, as well as off Costa Rica, Panama, and NW Colombia. This latter area of convection is likely enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough which also extends across the SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail in the central Caribbean, strongest offshore northern Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, as confirmed by an earlier altimeter pass. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and mainly moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in NW Colombia will sustain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean through late this week. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt, and highest seas of 10 to 13 ft are expected offshore Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along with moderate seas through the period. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong winds and rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from near 31N60W to near 27N77W, where it becomes a stationary front that extends to near Cape Canaveral, FL. No significant convection is noted near the front. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft follow these fronts. Farther east, a weak 1016 mb low pressure is near 30.5N48W. A surface trough extends from this low to 21N48W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present north of 21N between 43W and 49W. In the east Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from 29N21W to 26N25W to 21N26W to 16N30W. More scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing between the trough axis and the west coast of Africa. Recent scatterometer data indicates fresh to locally strong winds N of the trough, driven by the pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure to the north. Elsewhere across the Atlantic away from the aforementioned features, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across the vast majority of the basin. The exceptions are two regions, one north of 20N between 35W and 65W, and the other in the vicinity of the Canary Islands, where gentle to moderate trades and seas of 2-5 ft prevail due to weaker pressure gradients in these areas. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends from 31N60W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. The eastern portion of the front will continue eastward and reach from 31N52W to 27N63W by Tue morning, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift north. High pressure located off the Carolinas will shift eastward following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building seas through Fri night. Looking ahead, a tightened pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing winds and building seas across much of the forecast area during the upcoming weekend. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC251027_C_KWBC_20251125102735_16515500-344-TWDAT.txt ****0000005018**** AXNT20 KNHC 251027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Nov 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1025 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues to 11N19W. The ITCZ extends from 11N19W to 09N40W and to 09N58W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 15N and east of 30W. Similar convection is observed from 07N to 14N and between 53W and 63W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak cold front is nearing the Texas coast and the pressure gradient between this feature and high pressure off New England support moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds and moderate seas over much of the Gulf waters. No significant convection is noted in the basin. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh southerly winds will decrease to gentle to moderate later today as high pressure off New England departs eastward. A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the aforementioned weak front early Wed, then move into the NW Gulf waters. The cold front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by Thu night into Fri, followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the frontal boundary. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure off New England continues to force fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh and moderate seas prevail elsewhere in the basin. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers in the Gulf of Honduras and SW Caribbean. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the islands and lower pressures in NW Colombia will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean through late this week. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt, and highest seas peaking near 12 ft are expected offshore Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along with moderate seas through the period. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong winds and rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from near 31N58W to near 28N72W, where it becomes a stationary front that extends to near Cape Canaveral, FL. No significant convection is noted near the front. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 4-6 ft follow these fronts. Farther east, a weak 1014 mb low pressure is near 31N47W. A surface trough extends from this low to 19N48W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present north of 21N between 43W and 49W. In the east Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed from 29N21W to 26N25W to 21N26W to 16N30W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing between the trough axis and the west coast of Africa. Scatterometer satellite data from a few hours ago indicates fresh to locally strong winds N of the trough, driven by the pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure to the north. Elsewhere across the Atlantic away from the aforementioned features, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across the vast majority of the basin. The exceptions are two regions, one north of 20N between 35W and 65W, and the other in the vicinity of the Canary Islands, where gentle to moderate trades and seas of 2-5 ft prevail due to weaker pressure gradients in these areas. For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the aforementioned front will continue eastward and reach from 31N44W to 27N63W by tonight, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift north. High pressure located off New England will shift eastward following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building seas through Fri night. Looking ahead, a tightened pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing winds and building seas across much of the forecast area during the upcoming weekend. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################