--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-26 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC260428_C_KWBC_20260726042914_49676782-9280-TWDAT.txt ****0000006910**** AXNT20 KNHC 260428 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Jul 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1031 mb Azores High and lower pressures over northern Africa currently support strong to near gale-force NE winds between the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco. These winds were confirmed by scatterometer data from 0200 UTC tonight. Winds are expected to remain at or near gale-force for the next few hours before diminishing later tonight. Accordingly, Meteo France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir Zone until 26/03 UTC. For more details, please refer to Meteo-France's website at: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 45-46W, from 08N to 22N, moving W at 12-20 kt. A broad mid level cyclonic circulation can be seen in PW animations. Convection near this wave is discussed in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave is moving into the eastern Caribbean with axis along 62W-63W, moving W at 15-20 kt. An upper level low is centered to the NW and is shearing associated convection to the E of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 55W and 61W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has been added to the 0000 UTC surface map, along 73W, moving westward at 15-20 kt, and is well depicted in PW animations. The wave is moving through a zone of dry and sinking air across the central basin, and no associated convection is seen over water at this time. A Caribbean tropical wave previously along 75W is racing westward and has nearly merged with the tropical wave ahead of it across Central America along about 90W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues to 12N23W to 10N37W. The ITCZ extends from 09N38W to 07.5N44W to 05.5N54W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is exiting Africa from 10N to 17N E of 20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 08.5N to 14N between 20W and 27W, and 08N to 12.5N between 29W and 40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11.5N between 40W and 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1019 mb high pressure is centered over the NE Gulf near 28.5N88W. Evening thunderstorms across central Florida have shifted westward to the coast near Tampa Bay and adjacent coastal waters within 60 nm and are weakening quickly. An upper level low is centered over the Bay of Campeche N of 20N, and is supporting a cluster of moderate to strong convection shifting westward off the Yucatan Peninsula and over the eastern Bay of Campeche. The surface high is promoting light to gentle anticyclonic winds across the basin N of 21N, where seas are 3 ft or less. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are occurring along the W coast of the Yucatan, in associated with the evening thermal trough there. Seas there area 3 to 4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the Gulf will promote gentle to moderate winds and slight seas to the basin through early next week. Fresh winds will continue offshore the western Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and then will pulse to moderate N winds each evening and night through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection dots the waters of the NW Caribbean from western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel southward across the Gulf of Honduras, to just offshore of NE Nicaragua. This activity is occurring behind a tropical wave now across the eastern Pacific along about 90W. The pressure gradient between low pressure over NW Colombia and the western Atlantic ridge extending into central Florida is forcing fresh to strong trades over the central to SW Caribbean, generally S of 16N, where seas are 6 to 9 ft between 72W and 80W. Across the eastern basin, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds prevail, with moderate seas of 4 to 6 ft. Across the NW Caribbean, NE to E winds are moderate or weaker, with slight seas. The exception there is fresh E wind across the interior Gulf of Honduras, where seas are locally 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central Caribbean into Sun. Fresh to locally strong E winds will continue across the Gulf of Honduras tonight. The ridge will weaken and shift east by Mon, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the central Caribbean into mid week. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across the central Caribbean starting Wed as the ridge builds north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough in the W Atlantic combined with upper level divergence from an upper level trough N of the region are aiding in persistent scattered moderate convection from 28N to 31N between 68W and 72W. Isolated moderate convection dots the central and northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring from the E coasts of the Lesser Antilles to 54W, behind a tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean described above. Another upper low and surface trough extends into the north central waters, and is promoting scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 25N to 29N between 47W and 59W. Elsewhere at the surface, the pressure gradient between the Azores High and lower pressure along the ITCZ and monsoon trough is producing moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas across much of the Atlantic S of 26W. E of 33W, the pressure gradient tightens and is producing fresh to strong NE winds along with rough seas of 8-10 ft impacting waters N of 18N, including near the Canary Islands where NE winds are strong to near-gale force. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will shift southeastward through early this week, allowing a cold front to move offshore the SE U.S. Sun, then stall along about 31N. SW winds will increase and producing building seas N of 25N through the middle of next week between this stalled front and the Atlantic ridge to the east. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC261008_C_KWBC_20260726100917_49676782-9303-TWDAT.txt ****0000005070**** AXNT20 KNHC 261008 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Jul 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has emerged off Africa and now has an axis along 19W from 10N to 17N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noticed from 12N to 15N E of 20W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 47W, from 08N to 22W, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted E of this wave from 08N to 12N between 37W and 47W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 64W, from the Virgin Islands into Venezuela, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is behind this wave from 12N to 19N between 54W and 64W, and is impacting much of the waters near the Lesser Antilles. A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 74W, moving W at around 15 kt. No convection is currently associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues to 12N25W to 10N37W. The ITCZ extends from 10N38W to 08N44W and from 07N49W to 05N54W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N to 14N between 20W and 27W and 08N to 12N between 29W and 37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 49W and 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1019 mb high pressure is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N87W. A surface trough over the Bay of Campeche is generating scattered moderate convection over the SW basin. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds dominate much of the basin, with moderate SE winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche, E of the surface through. Seas are 2 to 4 ft where these moderate winds are ongoing, otherwise generally 2 ft or less basin-wide. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the Gulf will bring gentle to moderate winds and slight seas to the basin into mid- week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convection in the NW Caribbean has dissipated overnight. See the above Tropical Waves sections for details on convection associated with a tropical wave in the far eastern basin. The pressure gradient between low pressure over NW Colombia and the western Atlantic ridge extending into the eastern Gulf of America is forcing fresh to locally strong trades over the central to SW Caribbean, generally S of 15N, where seas are 6 to 8 ft between 72W and 80W. Across the eastern basin, moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds prevail, with moderate seas of 4 to 6 ft. Across the NW Caribbean, NE to E winds are moderate or weaker, with slight seas. The exception there is locally fresh E wind across the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are moderate ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central Caribbean today, with fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras. The ridge will weaken and shift east tonight, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the central Caribbean into mid week. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across the central Caribbean starting Wed as the ridge builds north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tight pressure gradient between low pressure over the Saharan Desert and the 1029 mb Azores high has relaxed enough such that gale conditions have ended in the vicinity of the Canary Islands and near the Moroccan coast. As both the low and high weaken today, strong NE winds will gradually decrease to moderate to fresh into tonight. These higher winds have generated rough seas that impact waters from the Canary Islands S to 18N and W to about 35W. These seas will slowly decay below 8 ft through the day. Convection E of Florida and N of and E of the Bahamas has generally dissipated overnight, but scattered moderate convection prevails within about 60 nm either side of a surface trough axis that extends from 31N45W to 27N52W. The pressure gradient between the Azores High and lower pressure along the ITCZ and monsoon trough is producing moderate to locally fresh trades along with moderate seas across much of the Atlantic S of 26W. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move offshore the SE U.S. today, then stall. SW winds will increase and seas will build N of 25N through the middle of the week between this front and the Atlantic ridge to the east. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC261650_C_KWBC_20260726165119_49676782-9330-TWDAT.txt ****0000004763**** AXNT20 KNHC 261650 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Jul 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis along 19W from 08N to 17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noticed from 08N to 18N and E of 22W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 49W, from 06N to 22N, moving W at around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 65W, from the 17N65W southward into Venezuela, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the wave axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 75W, moving W at around 15 kt. No convection is currently associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N16W and continues to 11N42W. The ITCZ extends from 11N42W to 08N47W where it is broken by a tropical wave, and then resumes from 07N49W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 14N between 22W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1018 mb high pressure is centered over the Gulf near 26N87W. A surface trough extending off the SW FL coast near Naples is generating scattered moderate convection over the nearshore waters. A surface trough over the Bay of Campeche is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the SW basin. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds dominate much of the basin. Seas are 1-3 ft basin-wide. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the Gulf will bring gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas to the basin into mid-week. Pulsing fresh NE to E winds are likely each afternoon and evening along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Mon as a trough develops daily and drifts westward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between low pressure over NW Colombia and the Atlantic ridge is forcing fresh to locally strong trades over the central to SW Caribbean, generally S of 15N, where seas are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Across the NW Caribbean, NE to E winds are moderate or weaker, with slight seas. In the SW Caribbean, scattered moderate convection is occurring along the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua, enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central Caribbean today, with fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras. The ridge will weaken and shift east tonight, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the central Caribbean into mid week. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across the central Caribbean starting Wed as the ridge builds north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pair of surface troughs in the western Atlantic are facilitating the development of scattered moderate convection N of 27N and W of 65W, with more widely scattered showers and thunderstorms impacting the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SW winds are seen in this region as well. In the central Atlantic, an upper- level trough is aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection NE of the Lesser Antilles from 16N to 22N between 54W and 60W. Another area of scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen along and near a surface trough in the central Atlantic analyzed from 31N44W to 26N54W. Surface ridging prevails across much of the remaining Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the basin. Scatterometer data from this morning indicate fresh to strong NE winds in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move offshore the SE U.S. today, then stall. SW winds will increase and seas will build N of 25N through the middle of the week between this front and the Atlantic ridge to the east. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################