--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-04-02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC020345_C_KWBC_20260402034626_9109880-385-TWDAT.txt ****0000003363**** AXNT20 KNHC 020345 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Apr 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is analyzed from 13N17W to 00N24W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the boundaries and E of 32W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the western Atlantic extends toward the NE Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas. Divergence aloft is supporting scattered showers over the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, surface ridge will dominate the Gulf through Sat, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with occasional strong north of the Yucatan Peninsula, in the northwestern Gulf and Florida Straits. Seas are expected to be moderate during this period. On Sun, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf and then move southeastward through early next week, bringing strong winds and rough seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong NE to E trades dominate waters offshore Colombia and in the Windward Passage, with moderate to fresh winds over most of the rest of the basin, except for the eastern Caribbean where gentle to moderate NE winds prevail. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except rough seas in N swell are spilling through Atlantic passages E of 70W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a surface ridge near 30N and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE to E winds along with moderate to rough seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layer trough that extends roughly along 60W from 18N to 27N is inducing scattered moderate convection from 17N to 28N between 52W and 63W. In the far eastern Atlantic, a 1016 mb low pressure is analyzed near 26N23W. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas prevail in the vicinity of the low. A relatively tight pressure gradient between subtropical ridging with an axis along 35 to 40N and lower pressure toward the Equator is inducing widespread fresh to strong trades between 20N and 30N, with associated rough seas. To the south, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure at the north Atlantic will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas mainly south of 28N, including the central and southeast Bahamas through this weekend. Afterward, the high is going to weaken which should allow both winds and seas to gradually subside early next week. On Mon night and Tue, a cold front exiting the southeastern U.S. will cause building winds and seas off northeastern Florida. $$ ERA --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC021022_C_KWBC_20260402102306_38666572-336-TWDAT.txt ****0000004533**** AXNT20 KNHC 021022 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Apr 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast north of Conakry, then curves southwestward to 02N21W. An ITCZ continues from 02N21W across 00N29W to northwest of Fortaleza, Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 03N between 10W and 16W, and north of the ITCZ within 200 nm of 04N30W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen farther west from 00N to 03N between 38W and 48W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A robust upper-level trough stretching southward from the Florida Panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, a surface ridge reaching southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico is dominating much of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present northwest and north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf through Sat, supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with occasional strong north of the Yucatan Peninsula, in the northwestern Gulf and Florida Straits. Seas are expected to be moderate during this period. On Sun, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf and then move southeastward through early next week, bringing strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Latest ASCAT satellite scatterometer data reveal fresh to strong NE to E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft at the south-central basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE trades are also noted at the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola. Seas range from 5 to 7 ft at the lee of Cuba and south of Hispaniola. Seas in and near the Windward Passage are from 6 to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a surface ridge near 30N and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE to E winds along with moderate to rough seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layer trough near 24N59W is generating scattered moderate convection from 20N to 27N between 50W and 61W. A surface trough is triggering widely scattered showers near the northwest Bahamas and southeastern Florida. A broad 1015 mb low pressure is causing patchy showers southwest of the Canary Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A large 1036 mb high at the north Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft north of 20N between 45W and the Bahamas, except gentle to moderate SE winds with 4 to 7 ft seas off northeastern Florida. Farther east from 20N to 31N between 35W and 45W, moderate NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft in large NE swell exist. For remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail from 00N to 20N west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure at the north Atlantic will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas mainly south of 28N, including the central and southeast Bahamas through this weekend. Afterward, the high is going to weaken which should allow both winds and seas to gradually subside early next week. On Mon night and Tue, a cold front exiting the southeastern U.S. will cause building winds and seas off northeastern Florida. $$ Chan --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC021505_C_KWBC_20260402150534_9109880-420-TWDAT.txt ****0000004526**** AXNT20 KNHC 021505 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Apr 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1455 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 02S45W. A few showers are seen near the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Converging low-level winds in the south-central Gulf result in a line of showers from near 26N90W to the Yucatan Channel. At the surface, a broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas, except for lighter winds in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, a broad western Atlantic surface ridge extends westward across the northern Gulf states and will dominate the Gulf region through Sat, then weaken through Sun. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds with occasional strong winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula, in the northwestern Gulf and Florida Straits. On Sun, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf and move southeastward through early next week, bringing strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas behind it. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras is supporting numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially west of 83W. Converging low-level winds result in scattered showers in the SW Caribbean, especially off Costa Rica and western Panama. High pressure north of the area forces moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-8 ft across much of the central and western Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a broad western Atlantic ridge continues along about 34N and into the SE U.S. this morning, and will change little through Sun morning. The pressure gradient between this surface ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Fri night before winds and seas diminish there over the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layer trough, along with a surface trough, centered northeast of the Leeward Islands, combine to generate scattered moderate convection from 20N to 27N and between 50W and 62W. A surface trough along Florida's east coast is triggering a few showers near the northwest Bahamas and southeastern Florida. An expansive 1035 mb high in the north Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas north of 20N between 45W and the Bahamas, except gentle to moderate SE winds with 4 to 7 ft seas off northeastern Florida. Moderate or weaker winds and rough seas are evident south of 20N and west of 40W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are noted north of 24N and east of 45W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Lastly, a plume of Saharan dust covers much of the eastern Atlantic, reducing the visibility for vessels in the area. For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure extends from the central Atlantic west-southwestward and into the SE U.S. this morning, and will shift gradually SW and weaken modestly through Sun morning. This pattern will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas mainly south of 29N, including the central and southeast Bahamas, through this weekend. By Sun, the high will have weakened and shifted to just NE of Bermuda, leading to gradually diminishing winds and seas Sun afternoon through Mon. A cold front is expected to exit the southeastern U.S. on Mon and move slowly southeastward, with increasing winds and and building seas developing behind it, across northeastern Florida waters. $$ Delgado --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC022031_C_KWBC_20260402203115_38666572-369-TWDAT.txt ****0000004316**** AXNT20 KNHC 022031 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Apr 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 11N14.5W and continues southwestward to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 20W and 25W, and from 02S to 03N between 34W and 48W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a 1004 mb low over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the basin. These winds are generating seas in the 3-6 ft range. For the forecast, a broad western Atlantic surface ridge extends westward across the northern Gulf states and will dominate the Gulf region through Sat morning, then weaken Sat afternoon and night as a cold front approaches. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin, with occasional strong winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and across the northwestern Gulf and through the Florida Straits through Sat. A cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early Sun and move southeastward through early next week, reaching from near Fort Myers, FL to 23N94W to the central Bay of Campeche Tue morning. Expected strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean. Seas over this area are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a broad western Atlantic ridge continues along about 34N and into the SE U.S., and will weaken modestly through Sun morning. The pressure gradient between this surface ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh winds pulsing to strong with rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night, and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Fri night, before winds and seas diminish over the weekend. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue, and yield fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 26N55W to 17N60W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure is centered N and W of the trough. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds N of 20N between 50W and 75W. A second trough is over the eastern waters from 28N25W to 20N22W. High pressure is north of the trough. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh winds N of the trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Mostly rough seas prevail N of 20N between 40W and 75W, and N of 24N between 23W and 40W. Moderate seas are found elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure extends from the central Atlantic west-southwestward into the SE U.S., and will drift slowly SW and weaken modestly through Sun morning. This pattern will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas mainly south of 29N, including the central and southeast Bahamas, through this weekend. By late Sun, the high will have weakened and shifted to NE of Bermuda, while an inverted surface trough forms from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic. A cold front is expected to exit the southeastern U.S. early Mon and move slowly southeastward, reaching from 31N72W to central Florida by Tue morning. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################