--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-23 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC230506_C_KWBC_20260523050717_47448518-3892-TWDAT.txt ****0000005438**** AXNT20 KNHC 230506 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat May 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has been analyzed near 18W from 13N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are seen from 02N to 08N between 11W and 20W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 45W, south of 12N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed from 02N to 07N between 42W and 50W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 79-80W, south of 15N and into the Eastern Pacific to near 05N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring S of 11N and W of 80W. Convection with this wave is being enhanced by the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough, which extends across the SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 03N25W. The ITCZ extends from 03N25W to 01N34W to 02N43W. Scattered moderate convection is observed S of 03N between 23W and 41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper level shortwave over the south-central US is supporting widely scattered moderate convection across much of the N and W Gulf coast from near Panama City Beach, FL to near Tampico, Mexico. Ridging extending from the Atlantic into the Gulf supports moderate E to SE winds across much of the Gulf, with fresh to strong winds pulsing along and near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little through late Mon, then weaken into midweek. The related pressure gradient will maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow through early Sun, except for light to gentle southeast winds W of about 94W Sat night through Tue as a weak trough develops off the Texas coast. Winds then generally become southeast at gentle to moderate speeds across the basin through midweek, with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected to affect portions of the western Gulf through the weekend and into next week. Mariners should keep up with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the region and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades in the south- central Caribbean, where seas are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail in the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across waters near Hispaniola, Cuba, and Jamaica. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean into early next week creating rough seas over these waters. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades elsewhere across the basin will begin to increase in coverage starting early next week as stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure N of the region extends a ridge across much of the basin. Fresh trades and seas of 6-8 ft prevail across areas S of 22N, as well as areas N of 22N and E of 30W. Winds are locally fresh to strong in between the Canary Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands, confirmed by recent scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas prevail in the remainder of the Atlantic waters. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered E of the Bahamas near 32N58W dominates the forecast region. Fresh to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola during the afternoons and evenings going into early next week. The western part of a backdoor cold front will push south across the eastern portion of the area from Sun afternoon into Mon before stalling near 26N, then begin to weaken, dissipating on Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with moderate seas will follow the front, subsiding late Tue. Elsewhere, trades are forecast to increase over most of the western half of the area starting Mon, including the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as well as the entrance to the Windward Passage as slightly stronger high pressure over the north-central Atlantic shifts east-southeastward leading to a tighter pressure gradient. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC230932_C_KWBC_20260523093318_47448518-3901-TWDAT.txt ****0000006136**** AXNT20 KNHC 230932 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat May 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 19W from 13N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection, associated with the wave, covers the area from 02N to 07N between 15W and 20W. Similar convective activity is noted in the vicinity of 06N13W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 46W, south of 12N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen where the wave meets the ITCZ. A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean. Its axis is near 81W, south of 15N and into the Eastern Pacific region to near 05N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Convection is limited over the SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 03N25W. The ITCZ extends from 03N25W to 02.5N45W. Outside of the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed S of 04N between 23W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. This system supports gentle to moderate E to SE winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh NE to E winds to the N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 3 to 4 ft with these winds, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are between the western Florida Panhandle and SE Louisiana, including nearby waters. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little through late Mon, then weaken into midweek. The related pressure gradient will maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow through early Sun, except for light to gentle southeast winds W of about 94W Sat night through Tue as a weak trough develops off the Texas coast. Winds then generally become southeast at gentle to moderate speeds across the basin through midweek, with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected near the above mentioned trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the region and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades in the south- central Caribbean, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Another area of fresh to strong trade winds is noted, per scatterometer data, over the eastern Caribbean, particularly from 14N to 17.5N between 60W and 64W with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the east and central portions of the basin as well as the Gulf of Honduras with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where slight seas are noted. A few showers and thunderstorms are currently affecting parts of Cuba, the area between Cuba and Jamaica, and Haiti, including adjacent waters. Pockets of low- level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are affecting the remainder of the region generating isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean into early next week creating rough seas over these waters. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades elsewhere across the basin will begin to increase in coverage starting early next week as stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, is analyzed from 31N34W to 22N56W. Mainly low clouds are near the trough axis. High pressure of 1026 mb centered E of Bermuda near 32N59W dominates the remainder of the forecast region. Under this weather pattern, fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are observed between the Canary Islands. Similar wind speeds are blowing across the Cabo Verde Islands and regional waters, where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range. Fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show that winds are pulsing to strong force off northern Hispaniola creating moderate to locally rough seas. Elsewhere, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to dominate most of the forecast region this weekend into early next week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola during the afternoons and evenings going into early next week. The western part of a backdoor cold front will push south across the eastern portion of the area from Sun afternoon into Mon before stalling near 26N, then begin to weaken, dissipating on Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with moderate to rough seas will follow the front, subsiding late Tue. Elsewhere, trades are forecast to increase over most of the western half of the area starting Mon, including the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as well as the entrance to the Windward Passage as stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC231705_C_KWBC_20260523170622_47448518-3927-TWDAT.txt ****0000005434**** AXNT20 KNHC 231705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat May 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 20W from 13N southward, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the Monsoon Trough and nearby ITCZ, is from 01N to 06N between 10W and 23W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 48W, south of 12N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from the equator to 05N between 47W and 51W, including coastal regions of far NE Brazil. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is near 81W, south of 15N and into the Eastern Pacific region to near 05N. This wave is nearly stationary, with surface and upper air data from San Andres Island indicating the wave remains east of the island. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 04N23W. The ITCZ extends from 04N23W to 01N43W, east of a tropical wave. Outside of the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north and south of the ITCZ. GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of Louisiana, north of 28N between 88W and 94W. Scattered moderate convection is also moving off the south Texas coast. These unsettled areas of weather will persist for the next several hours over water. Elsewhere, the subtropical Atlantic ridge extends across Florida and much of the central and eastern Gulf waters. Satellite scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate SE winds across the basin. Seas are analyzed to range from 2-4 ft. The diurnal trough in the Bay of Campeche dissipated earlier this morning. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little through late Mon, then weaken into midweek. The related pressure gradient will maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow through early Sun, except for light to gentle southeast winds W of about 94W Sat night through Tue as a weak trough develops off the Texas coast. Winds then generally become southeast at gentle to moderate speeds across the basin through midweek, with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected near the above mentioned trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the region and the Colombian Low supports fresh to locally strong trades in the south-central Caribbean, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, satellite scatterometer data received this morning indicates moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Satellite altimeter data supports an analysis of 4-7 ft seas across the Caribbean. Pockets of low-level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are affecting the remainder of the region by generating isolated passing showers. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean into early next week creating rough seas over these waters. Fresh to strong trades will also pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly moderate trades elsewhere across the basin will begin to increase in coverage starting early next week as stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the Atlantic waters, providing for gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas across the basin. Pockets of low-level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow may generate a few passing showers, especially in the western Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to dominate most of the forecast region this weekend into early next week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola during the afternoons and evenings going into early next week. The western part of a backdoor cold front will push south across the eastern portion of the area from Sun afternoon into Mon before stalling near 26N, then begin to weaken, dissipating on Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with moderate to rough seas will follow the front, subsiding late Tue. Elsewhere, trades are forecast to increase over most of the western half of the area starting Mon, including the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as well as the entrance to the Windward Passage as stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. $$ Mahoney ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################