--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-02-26 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC260359_C_KWBC_20260226040006_16515500-8331-TWDAT.txt ****0000005200**** AXNT20 KNHC 260359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Feb 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell propagating across the central and eastern waters is supporting rough to very rough seas. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft E of 35W by Thu morning, but rough seas of 8 to 11 ft will persist into the upcoming weekend. Over the central waters seas of 8 to 12 ft will gradually subside from NW to SE over the next couple of days. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N13W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 00N31W and to near 02S46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An extensive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the Gulf waters, supporting fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas in the NW Gulf. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and moderate seas are seen north of the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, broad high pressure extending from the central Atlantic southwestward across the Gulf will shift E-NE across the western Atlantic through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly return flow across the NW Gulf will expand across the SW and central Gulf tonight into Thu ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf early Fri. This weak cold front is expected to sink slowly southward across the north half of the Gulf Fri through Sat night and gradually dissipate. High pressure N of the Gulf will dominate the basin Sun and Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The southern portion of a stationary front continues to bring scattered showers to Hispaniola and nearby waters. The remnants of the frontal boundary in the central Caribbean support a few showers near the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. The tight pressure gradient between the expansive subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern Colombia sustain strong to near gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Mainly fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the north-central, including the Windward Passage, and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure centered NE of Bermuda extends a ridge southwestward across S Florida and into the W Gulf of America. The high will shift NE across the Atlantic through early Sat and maintain a broad ridge across the central and western Atlantic, bringing a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic through the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the Significant Swell Event in the central and eastern Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 31N50W to the northern Dominican Republic. A few showers are occurring near this boundary, with the strongest convection affecting the SE Bahamas and nearby waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are found south of 25N and west of the front. Seas of 8 to 11 ft in NW swell follow the front. The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 34N32W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa forces moderate to locally strong trade winds and rough to very rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will drift W and dissipate Thu as the high pressure N of the front shifts NE into the central Atlantic, producing a broad ridge across the entire region that is expected to persist until Sat. A weak front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sat and move slowly southeastward and weaken through Sun. Seas will gradually subside through Thu night, with seas lingering around 8 ft over the SE waters through the end of the period. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC261032_C_KWBC_20260226103308_16515500-8350-TWDAT.txt ****0000006391**** AXNT20 KNHC 261032 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Feb 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell propagating across the central and eastern waters E of 65W continues to slowly subside. Overnight altimeter data and Sofar Ocean drifting buoys show that peak seas associated with this event have lowered to 10-12 ft, and encompass much of the open waters N of 06N and E of 50W. Seas across this region are forecast to subside below 12 ft this morning, and in general will subside modestly from NW to SE this afternoon through Fri night. However, a strong and broad surface ridge is forecast to persist across the eastern and central Atlantic this weekend into next week. The pressure gradient to the south of this associated ridge will produce a large area of strong NE to E trade winds from near the Cabo Verde Islands to the central tropical Atlantic, and produce a significant area of seas 12 ft and higher this weekend through early next week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10.5N14.5W and continues southwestward to 06N18.5W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18.5W to 02N23W and to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, S of 05N between 07W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An extensive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends across Florida and into the Gulf waters, supporting fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas to 9 ft in the NW and N central Gulf. Fresh to locally strong southeasterly winds and moderate seas are seen from north of the Yucatan peninsula to the central Mexican coast. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds across much of the NW half of the Gulf will gradually diminish this afternoon into this evening, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf early Fri. This next weak cold front is expected to sink slowly southward across the north half of the Gulf Fri through Sat night and gradually dissipate. High pressure N of the Gulf will build back across the basin Sun and Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The remnants of a stationary front across Haiti and portions of the Windward Passage earlier tonight have shifted westward and dissipated. However, freshening trade wind flow across much of the basin E of 80W is producing scattered showers from 16N across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. The remnants of the dissipated frontal boundary also continue to support scattered showers near the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. The tightening pressure gradient between the expansive subtropical Atlantic ridge to the north and lower pressures in northern Colombia sustain strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are occurring elsewhere across the basin E of 80W, including the Windward Passage. Elsewhere to the W, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the broad high pressure N of the basin will shift NE across the Atlantic through early Sat and maintain a broad ridge across the central and western Atlantic, bringing a return to fresh to strong trades across most of the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the Significant Swell Event in the central and eastern Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 31N50W to near the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has begun to drift westward N of Hispaniola in recent hours. Scattered showers are occurring N of this boundary, and through the SE Bahamas and nearby waters. High pressure is centered N of the front to the NE of Bermuda and extends a ridge southwestward across S Florida and across the Gulf of America. This pressure pattern is producing moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas to 9 ft in N to NE swell south of 25N and west of the front. Elsewhere N of 25N between the front and 70W, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail with rough seas to 10 ft. The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 34N31W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa forces moderate to locally strong trade winds and rough to very rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW to N swell cover the entire area E of the front from 70W to 30W. For the forecast west of 55W, the NW to N swell dominating the regional waters will gradually subside through Thu night. However seas over the SE waters are expected to continue at 8 ft and higher in easterly trade wind swell through the end of the period. The front will drift W and dissipate today as the high pressure N of the front shifts NE into the central Atlantic, producing a broad ridge across the entire region that is expected to persist until Sat. A weak front will shift off the SE U.S. coast early Sat and move slowly southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through Sun night before dissipating. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC261709_C_KWBC_20260226171010_16515500-8375-TWDAT.txt ****0000004739**** AXNT20 KNHC 261709 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Feb 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a GALE WARNING for the Canarias Offshore Zone. N to NE winds to Force 8 will continue between the Canary Islands through at least 27/1200 UTC. Seas currently range from 12-14 ft, and will build to 12-15 ft through the warning period. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2 Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas remain 8-11 ft across all central and eastern Atlantic waters east of 60W, in mixed NW and NE swell. Over the next couple of days, seas will build to 12-15 ft across the eastern Atlantic, mainly east of 45W, as new NW swell propagates from the GALE WARNING near the Canary Islands. Widespread fresh to strong trade winds, with surges to near-gale force, will sustain 8-11 ft seas elsewhere, as strong subtropical high pressure maintains a tight pressure gradient across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to the coast of Brazil near 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ. GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge axis extending from the subtropical Atlantic high pressure extends across the Gulf waters, and provides for moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds across the basin. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin, with highest seas in the NW Gulf where fetch is maximized under this wind pattern. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly return flow across the NW, central and SW portions of the Gulf will gradually diminish into this evening ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf early Fri. This cold front is expected to sink slowly southward across the north half of the Gulf Fri through Sat night and gradually dissipate. High pressure N of the Gulf will build back across the basin Sun and Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... The influence of the strong subtropical ridge centered in the Atlantic Ocean currently supports pusling strong trades in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, with 8-9 ft seas. Fresh trades prevail elsewhere across the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades in remaining waters. Seas are 4-7 ft. Seas are locally higher, to 8-9 ft, within Atlantic Passage between the Lesser Antilles and the Mona Passage, due to arriving swell from the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast, the subtropical high will shift NE across the Atlantic through early Sat and maintain a broad ridge across the central and western Atlantic, bringing a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a GALE WARNING EAST OF 35W and a SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT in the central and eastern Atlantic. The previously analyzed stationary front has dissipated in the W Atlantic, though some scattered showers remain near the central Bahamas. Outside of the area described in the SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT which includes all of the central and eastern Atlantic, trades are moderate or weaker and seas are generally 4-7 ft. These conditions prevail across the western Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, swell across the most of the eastern offshore zones will gradually subside through Thu night, with seas over the SE waters expected to continue at 8 ft and higher in easterly trade wind swell through the end of the period. A weak front will shift off the SE U.S. coast early Sat and move slowly southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through Sun night before dissipating. $$ Mahoney ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################