--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-01-31 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC310009_C_KWBC_20260131000926_12124482-5234-TWDAT.txt ****0000008302**** AXNT20 KNHC 310009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Jan 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front curves southwestward from a 1018 mb low over southern Mississippi to south of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong N winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are seen behind the front. As the front pushes farther south and east later tonight, it will cause these winds to reach strong to gale- force off Veracruz, Mexico through early Saturday morning, along with seas peaking at 10 to 13 ft. The low will track eastward across the southeastern U.S. and merge with a complex low pressure off the South Carolina coast Sat and Sat night. This is expected to cause widespread strong to gale-force winds along with very cold temperatures across the eastern Gulf, including waters near the Florida Keys. Seas in this area will build to between 14 and 16 ft under the strongest winds. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts southeastward across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system will develop offshore the Carolina coast tonight into Sat morning. This system will send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters north of about 24N and just east of Florida Sat through Sun evening, before lifting north of the area Sun night. A Gale Watch is already in effect across the coastal waters of most of the Florida Peninsula, including the Florida Keys. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 knots with higher gusts are possible across the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida through Sunday afternoon. Wave heights could peak as high as 12 feet across the Gulf and Atlantic waters during the day on Sunday as well. The front is expected to reach from southeast of Bermuda to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from near 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters north and east of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these conditions. Of note: With the aforementioned cold front, a potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sun, Mon and Tue morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far south as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on both events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Liberia near Monrovia, then extends southwestward to 03N20W, where it transitions to an ITCZ and continues across 01N30W to near the Amazon Delta area. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and north of the ITCZ from 01N to 05N between 31W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning. A strong cold front curves southwestward from a 1018 mb low over southern Mississippi to south of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers are occurring up to 80 nm northwest and 120 nm southeast of the front. A surface trough ahead of the front is causing similar convection at the northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen behind the front. Gentle to moderate SW to NW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present at the northeastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for more information. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough runs south-southwestward from a 1013 mb low near the Cayman Islands to off the Nicaragua coast. These features are generating scattered showers from central Cuba southward across the Cayman Islands to the far southwestern basin. The leading edge of a trade-wind surge is also inducing similar weather at the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the south-central basin, and offshore waters of Nicaragua. Mainly moderate N to ENE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the eastern and northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate N to ENE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, an unusually strong cold front is forecast to move into the northwestern Caribbean Sat morning and then southeastward merging with the aforementioned surface trough. The cold front will reach from western Hispaniola to the northwest coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early Mon. Strong to near gale-force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section at the very beginning for a Gale Warning. A stationary front meanders southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N48W to just north of the Dominican Republic. Patchy rain are found near and up to 200 nm northwest of this boundary. A surface trough runs southward from a 1016 low off the Georgia/South Carolina coast at 31N73W to southeastern Florida. Scattered showers are occurring near the low across northern Florida. .Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NW to NE to SW winds and 5 to 9 ft seas in moderate to large NW swell are found behind the stationary front to the Florida coast. Gentle winds with 7 to 11 ft seas in large NW swell exist southeast of the front to 20N and 50W. Farther east, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE to SW winds and 8 to 10 ft in large NW swell are present. For the tropical Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident. Gentle NE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure centered west of the Canary Islands near 29N25W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the above mentioned stationary front is promoting fresh to strong southerly winds N of 28N and E of the front to about 40W. An area of fresh to strong NE winds is observed from 12N to 21N E of 30W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 9 to 12 ft within these winds. Large northerly swell continue to spread across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Seas of 8 to 12 ft dominate the forecast waters N of 25N and E of 60W. Rough to very rough seas are reaching the Madeira and Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features section for more information. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC310010_C_KWBC_20260131001042_25559334-1583-TWDAT.txt ****0000007460**** AXNT20 KNHC 310010 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Jan 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front curves southwestward from a 1018 mb low over southern Mississippi to south of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong N winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are seen behind the front. As the front pushes farther south and east later tonight, it will cause these winds to reach strong to gale- force off Veracruz, Mexico through early Saturday morning, along with seas peaking at 10 to 13 ft. The low will track eastward across the southeastern U.S. and merge with a complex low pressure off the South Carolina coast Sat and Sat night. This is expected to cause widespread strong to gale-force winds along with very cold temperatures across the eastern Gulf, including waters near the Florida Keys. Seas in this area will build to between 14 and 16 ft under the strongest winds. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts southeastward across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system will develop offshore the Carolina coast tonight into Sat morning. This system will send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters north of about 24N and just east of Florida Sat through Sun evening, before lifting north of the area Sun night. A Gale Watch is already in effect across the coastal waters of most of the Florida Peninsula, including the Florida Keys. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 knots with higher gusts are possible across the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida through Sunday afternoon. Wave heights could peak as high as 12 feet across the Gulf and Atlantic waters during the day on Sunday as well. The front is expected to reach from southeast of Bermuda to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from near 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters north and east of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these conditions. Of note: With the aforementioned cold front, a potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sun, Mon and Tue morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far south as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on both events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Liberia near Monrovia, then extends southwestward to 03N20W, where it transitions to an ITCZ and continues across 01N30W to near the Amazon Delta area. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and north of the ITCZ from 01N to 05N between 31W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning. A strong cold front curves southwestward from a 1018 mb low over southern Mississippi to south of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers are occurring up to 80 nm northwest and 120 nm southeast of the front. A surface trough ahead of the front is causing similar convection at the northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen behind the front. Gentle to moderate SW to NW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present at the northeastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for more information. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough runs south-southwestward from a 1013 mb low near the Cayman Islands to off the Nicaragua coast. These features are generating scattered showers from central Cuba southward across the Cayman Islands to the far southwestern basin. The leading edge of a trade-wind surge is also inducing similar weather at the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the south-central basin, and offshore waters of Nicaragua. Mainly moderate N to ENE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the eastern and northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate N to ENE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, an unusually strong cold front is forecast to move into the northwestern Caribbean Sat morning and then southeastward merging with the aforementioned surface trough. The cold front will reach from western Hispaniola to the northwest coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early Mon. Strong to near gale-force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section at the very beginning for a Gale Warning. A stationary front meanders southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N48W to just north of the Dominican Republic. Patchy rain are found near and up to 200 nm northwest of this boundary. A surface trough runs southward from a 1016 low off the Georgia/South Carolina coast at 31N73W to southeastern Florida. Scattered showers are occurring near the low across northern Florida. .Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NW to NE to SW winds and 5 to 9 ft seas in moderate to large NW swell are found behind the stationary front to the Florida coast. Gentle winds with 7 to 11 ft seas in large NW swell exist southeast of the front to 20N and 50W. Farther east, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE to SW winds and 8 to 10 ft in large NW swell are present. For the tropical Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident. Gentle NE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features section for more information. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################