--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-04-07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC070600_C_KWBC_20260407060058_9109880-715-TWDAT.txt ****0000006054**** AXNT20 KNHC 070600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Apr 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front has stalled from 31N75W to near Melbourne, Florida. This front will meander and drift slowly SE through late week, eventually reaching from just N of Bermuda to near Palm Beach, FL by Wed morning. Low pressure is forecast to form along the front in the vicinity of the NW Bahamas on Tue, then move NE along the boundary and out of the basin toward Bermuda by Thu. Strong high pressure building N of the front will produce strong to near gale-force NE winds by early Tue, then increase to gale-force midday Tue through at least Wed night as the low pressure moves along the front. Very rough seas in excess of 15 ft are likely in the area of gales, and will linger N of the front through late Thu. The front is expected to stall from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by Thu night and gradually weaken into the weekend, with marine conditions slowly improving. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on both Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 09N13W, then reaches SW to 00N27W. The ITCZ extends west- southwestward from 00N27W to 00N42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 08W and 28W, and from 02S to 04N between 29W and 51W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from the Tampa Bay area SW to a 1013 mb low pressure centered near 24N91W. A cold front extends southward from the low into the eastern Bay of Campeche. Recent scatterometer data show strong to near gale force winds across the E Mexico offshores where rough seas are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Across the NE Gulf offshore waters, the scatterometer show fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to fresh NE winds over the NW offshores. Seas are 7 to 8 ft in the NE basin with the strongest winds N of the front. Aside from the winds and the seas, scattered heavy showers are ongoing over the eastern Gulf waters E of 87W. For the forecast, strong to near gale force winds will prevail W of the cold front through tonight, with fresh to strong NE winds N of the stationary front prevailing in the NE Gulf through Thu as the low pressure tracks along the boundary. Ahead of the low, scattered thunderstorms will produce locally gusty winds. Conditions will begin to improve somewhat Fri as high pressure over the NE U.S builds southwestward across the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A frontal boundary moving across the Gulf of America and NE Florida offshores is allowing for a relaxed pressure gradient over the NW and SW Caribbean where light to gentle variable winds are ongoing along with slight seas. Central Atlantic high pressure, however, extends a ridge axis southwestward to the NE Caribbean, thus supporting moderate to fresh trades over the central and eastern basin along with moderate seas to 7 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure across the north-central Atlantic and low pressure over South America will continue to support fresh to locally strong E to SE winds over the eastern half of the basin through early Thu and gentle to moderate NE winds across the western portion. By Thu, strong high pressure across the western Atlantic will build southward toward the region to bring a return to more typical fresh to strong winds across south-central portions offshore of Colombia and NW Venezuela. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features above for details on a developing Gale Warning in the SW N Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 31N75W to near Melbourne, Florida. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong NE winds following the front and affecting the NE Florida offshores where satellite imagery depict scattered heavy showers. Over the far eastern Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N20W SW to 27N30W to 27N42W. A pre-frontal trough extends across the Canary Islands, but no significant convection is associated with either feature. The remainder basin is under the influence of a 1033 mb high centered SW of the Azores near 36N39W. The pressure gradient between the cold front and the ridge supports moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the central and eastern subtropical waters where long period NW swell is ongoing with 8 to 15 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will meander and drift slowly SE through late week, eventually reaching a line from Bermuda to the Florida Straits Thu. During this time, weak low pressure will move NE along the boundary from the Bahamas to Bermuda, tightening the pressure gradient between the front and building high pressure from the SE United States. This will induce a broad area of northeasterly gales starting offshore NE Florida Tue and spreading eastward to 72W by Wed night, before diminishing slightly as the low pressure moves N of the area. Very rough seas in excess of 15 ft will build in the area of gales, and will linger N of the front through late Thu. The front may remain stalled into the the weekend, so marine conditions could be slow to improve. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC071001_C_KWBC_20260407100201_9109880-725-TWDAT.txt ****0000006177**** AXNT20 KNHC 071001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Apr 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from 31N75W to near Melbourne, Florida. This front will drift SE today, then stall through much of the week along a Bermuda to Florida Straits line. Low pressure will track NE along the boundary from the Florida Peninsula tonight to N of the area near Bermuda Thu. Thunderstorms with gusty winds will accompany this low pressure. As strong high pressure builds toward the region from the SE U.S., the pressure gradient between it and the cold front will be quite tight, and NE gales will develop offshore NE Florida this morning. These gales will spread E to about 73W, mainly N of 28N, through Wed night, before gradually ending as the low pressure moves N of the area. Very rough seas of 16 to 19 ft will be generated by these gales, Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on the Gale Warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast at 08N12W, then reaches SW to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 00N26W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 04N along both of these features. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A nearly-stationary front extends from just south of Tampa Bay to a 1013 mb low pressure centered near 24N91W. A cold front then extends from the low to the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is along and south of the front in the SE Gulf. N of the boundary in the NE Gulf, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds have developed, and rough seas are building. W of the cold front as well as in the NW Gulf, fresh to locally strong N winds prevail, with subsiding rough seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the SW Gulf will decrease today, but strong NE winds and rough seas in the NE Gulf will increase as the low tracks east along the slow- moving front and across Florida into tonight. Thunderstorms with locally gusty can be expected across the eastern Gulf ahead of the low. The front will then stall into late week over the far SE basin and only gradually dissipate, leaving a tight pressure gradient between it and building high pressure from the SE U.S. This will maintain the strong winds and rough seas over the NE basin much of the week, with near gale conditions possible Wed and Thu offshore Florida. Conditions will begin to improve somewhat Fri as the high pressure builds southwestward across the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and lower pressure in South America is inducing fresh trades over the central and eastern basin, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. In the western Caribbean, the typical trade winds have been disrupted by a cold front to the north in the Gulf of America, causing winds to be light and seas to be slight. No significant convection is occurring in the basin early this morning. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trades will prevail over the central and eastern basin into Thu, with gentle to moderate winds to the west. Strong high pressure will then build southward from the western Atlantic, leading to increasing winds, especially in the south-central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features above for information on a Gale Warning in the SW N Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 31N75W to near Melbourne, Florida. Strong to near gale force NE to E winds are N of this boundary, with building rough seas. Scattered moderate convection is south of this boundary, within 120 nm of the Florida coast. A surface tough extends north from Puerto Rico along 68W to 24N. It is inducing scattered moderate convection along and W of it to 70W, and is also producing strong southerly winds just E of its axis. In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening cold front extends from just NW of the Canary Islands, to 26N30W to 28N42N. Fresh to locally strong NE winds follow this front, with building rough to very rough seas. The rest of the basin, E of 65W, has mainly fresh trades and moderate seas, although NE swell has propagated ahead of the eastern Atlantic cold front, and rough seas now cover waters N of 20N and E of 50W. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from 31N75W to near Melbourne, Florida. This front will drift SE today, then stall through much of the week along a Bermuda to Florida Straits line. Low pressure will track NE along the boundary from the Florida Peninsula tonight to N of the area near Bermuda Thu. Thunderstorms with gusty winds will accompany this low pressure. As strong high pressure builds toward the region from the SE U.S., the pressure gradient between it and the cold front will be quite tight, and NE gales will develop offshore NE Florida this morning. These gales will spread E to about 73W, mainly N of 28N, through Wed night, before gradually ending as the low pressure moves N of the area. Very rough seas of 16 to 19 ft will be generated by these gales, and rough seas in N swell will impact a much larger area through the end of the week. The front is likely to linger over the basin into the weekend, so marine conditions could be slow to improve. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC071819_C_KWBC_20260407182024_38666572-711-TWDAT.txt ****0000007345**** AXNT20 KNHC 071819 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Apr 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends southwestward from north of Bermuda across 31N74W and central Florida to a low at the east-central Gulf of America. Near-gale to gale-force NE to ENE winds are found behind this front off northeastern Florida to near 78W. Seas near these winds range from 10 to 12 ft. As the low starts tracking east-northeastward tonight through Wednesday, it will cause the front to sink southward and spread near-gale to strong gale-force winds to off central Florida, and also eastward to near 70W. Seas are expected to peak at 14 to 18 ft under the strongest winds. As the low begins to weaken Wed evening, both winds and seas should gradually subside Wed night through Thu night. East Atlantic Large Swell: Large N swell behind a cold front is creating seas at 11 to 13 ft north of 25N and east of 40W. These very rough seas are going to shift southward through Thursday morning to as far south as 20N. By late Thursday afternoon, the swell should decline enough to allow seas to drop below 12 ft. For both events above, please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on the Gale Warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough stays mostly over Africa. To the south, an ITCZ extends west-southwestward from east of southern Liberia at 03N14W across 00N30W to near the Amazon Delta area. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted up to 140 m along either side of the ITCZ east of 22W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found up to 50 nm along either side of the rest of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends southwestward from near Sarasota, Florida through a 1010 mb low near 26N84W to a 1012 mb low at 23N90W, then continues southward as a cold front to over the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen up to 120 nm north and 60 nm south of the stationary front. A surface trough reaches northwestward from the 1012 mb low to southeast of Corpus Christi. Patchy showers are occurring near the cold front and surface trough, and over the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas exist north of the stationary front at the northeastern Gulf, including the Florida Big Bend area. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present at the north-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist across the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the southwestern Gulf will decrease today, but strong NE winds and rough seas in the northeastern Gulf will increase as the low tracks east along the slow-moving front and across Florida into tonight. Thunderstorms with locally gusty winds can be expected across the eastern Gulf ahead of the low. The front will then stall into late week over the far southeastern Gulf and gradually dissipate, leaving a tight pressure gradient between it and building high pressure from the southeastern U.S. This will maintain the strong winds and rough seas over the northeastern Gulf much of the week, with near gale conditions possible Wed and Thu offshore Florida. Conditions will begin to improve somewhat Fri as the high pressure builds southwestward across the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The southwestern end of the Atlantic Ridge is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft across the eastern and south-central basin. Gentle to moderate NNE to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist at the southwestern basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trades will prevail over the central and eastern basin into Thu, with gentle to moderate winds to the west. Strong high pressure will then build southward from the western Atlantic, leading to increasing winds, especially in the south-central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features Section at the very beginning about a Gale Warning. A stationary front extends southwestward from north of Bermuda across 31N74W and central Florida. Scattered heavy showers and strong isolated thunderstorms are noted near and south of the front to near 26N, including the northwest Bahamas. Farther southeast, a surface trough is triggering scattered showers from 25N to 28N between 65W and 71W. A cold front curves west- southwestward from near the Canary Islands to 25N43W. Patchy showers are evident up to 50 nm along either side of the front. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are evident behind the aforementioned stationary front. Southeast of this front to near the Turks and Caicos Islands and 70W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist. For the rest of the western Atlantic north of 00Z between 50W and 70W/Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in mixed moderate to large swells dominate. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W outside the significant N swell mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 7 to 11 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will drift southeastward tonight, then stall through much of the week along a Bermuda to Florida Straits line. Low pressure will track east- northeastward along the boundary from the Florida Peninsula tonight to north of the area near Bermuda Thu. Thunderstorms with gusty winds will accompany this low pressure. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure and the front is supporting NE gales offshore northeastern Florida. These gales will spread east to about 73W, mainly north of 28N, through Wed night, before gradually ending as the low pressure moves north of the area. Very rough seas of 16 to 18 ft will be generated by these gales, and rough seas in N swell will impact a much larger area through the end of the week. The front is likely to linger over the basin into the weekend, so marine conditions could be slow to improve. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################