--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC080617_C_KWBC_20260608061758_9109880-5186-TWDAT.txt ****0000005937**** AXNT20 KNHC 080617 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jun 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is has come off the coast of West Africa. Its axis extends from 03N to 12N and along 16W, moving westward at 5 kt. There is no significant convection associated with it at this time. A tropical wave is along 29W, south of 10N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N between 25W and 35W. A tropical wave is along 41W, south of 11N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the southern portion of the wave and near the ITCZ from 02N to 06N between 38W and 47W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea near 77W, south of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper level low center to its W, producing scattered moderate convection from 14N to 19N between 70W and 81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of West Africa near 12N16W, and continues southwestward to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 05N26W, then west of a tropical wave from 04N31W to 04N37W, then west of a second tropical wave from 04N42W to 03N51W. See the tropical waves section for information about convection. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure located over the central Atlantic extends a ridge across Florida and into the eastern Gulf region. This system is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds west of 90W, and in the SE Gulf. Seas basin-wide are slight to moderate. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region through Fri supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh winds in the western Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. A trough, or low pressure may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the south central or southwestern portions of the Gulf, perhaps from late Thu through Fri night accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will move off the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche at night through Wed attendant by fresh to strong winds and slight to moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures over Central America is maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds across the the majority of the basin along with mostly moderate seas. A tropical wave moving across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean is generating some showers across the region. Elsewhere, patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, as the pressure gradient tightens further between the Atlantic high pressure and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central America this will likely lead to an increase of the trade winds to fresh to strong speeds starting early Mon evening in the central and northwestern sections of the basin, and lasting through the rest of the period. Trade winds of fresh speeds are expected over the eastern section of the basin starting Wed night. The trade winds in the northwestern part of the basin are expected to become fresh to strong, predominately southeast in direction, beginning on Wed as a trough, or low pressure may shift northward or northwestward from the Yucatan Peninsula into the south-central or southwestern portions of the Gulf of America. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details including any related significant convection. A surface trough extends from 28N72W to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the trough axis. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure situated SW of the Azores. Under the influence of this system, a gentle to moderate E to SE flow is seen N of 20N E of the trough to about 48W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough seas are found north of 20N and east of 44W, including the Canary Islands. The strongest winds are between the islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas to 7 ft are elsewhere S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will remain nearly stationary through the early part of the week. A weak cold front will move across the N waters Tue, then stall near 27N through Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward north of the area through the end of the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending toward southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh east winds are expected between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, and westward to the waters between the Bahamas and Cuba beginning late Wed night. Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the far western section of the basin during the week. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC080946_C_KWBC_20260608094700_9109880-5200-TWDAT.txt ****0000006224**** AXNT20 KNHC 080946 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Jun 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa. Its axis extends is long 17W, south of 11N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the northern end of the wave axis. A new tropical wave was added to the 0600 UTC surface map along 23W, south of 11N based on satellite imagery and wave diagnostic. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 32W, south of 10N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 30W and 36W. Another tropical wave is along 42W, south of 11N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is where the wave meets the ITCZ, from 03N to 06N between 40W and 47W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean Sea near 78W, south of 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is interacting with an upper-level low centered south of Jamaica. This system is helping to induce scattered moderate convection over the majority of the central Caribbean, including western Venezuela and northern Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N30W to the coast of Brazil near 03N51W. Most of the convective activity across the area is associated with the above mentioned tropical waves. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The Atlantic high pressure extends westward across Florida into the Gulf region supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds east of 90W, with seas 1 to 3 ft, while moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas 3 to 5 ft prevail west of 90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along the coast of Mexico and adjacent waters as well as over the western Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region through Fri supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh winds in the western Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings through at least Wed. Looking ahead, a trough, or low pressure, may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, perhaps from late Thu through Fri night accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more details, including any associated significant convection. Otherwise, high pressure north of the area centered SW of the Azores extends a ridge to the SE Bahamas. This pattern supports moderate to locally fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas to 6 ft across the majority of the basin. An upper-level low located south of Jamaica is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over most of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, as the pressure gradient tightens further between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central America, expect an increase of the trade winds to fresh to strong speeds, with moderate to rough seas starting this evening in the north-central and NW Caribbean and lasting through the rest of the period. In addition, a trough, or low pressure, may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche perhaps from late Thu through Fri night keeping a tight pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Four tropical waves are moving westward between the western coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details, including any related significant convection. A surface trough extends from 28N72W to the central Bahamas into eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the trough axis. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure situated SW of the Azores near 36N31W. Under the influence of this system, a gentle to moderate E to SE flow with moderate seas is seen N of 20N E of the trough to about 40W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas are found north of 16N and east of 40W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will remain nearly stationary through the early part of the week. A weak cold front will move across the N waters Tue, then stall near 27N through Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward north of the area through the end of the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending toward Florida and southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the far western section of the basin during the week. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC081535_C_KWBC_20260608153606_32440682-2241-TWDAT.txt ****0000005714**** AXNT20 KNHC 081535 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Jun 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W, from 16N southward, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. This wave, and the wave previously analyzed near 23W is the same tropical wave. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W, from 15N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W, from 15N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave has been repositioned to 73W as the turning noted on satellite near 78W was from the upper level trough, and not the tropical wave. The wave axis is south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The tropical wave is interacting with the upper level trough, enhancing convection. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 70W and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N17W and extends to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to 06N32W, then from 06N36W to 05N45W, then from 05N48W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 23W and 40W, and from 02N to 06N between 41W and 51W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered over southern Georgia. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure, and low pressure around TS Boris, and recently upgraded TD Three-E is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the SE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range west of 90W, and 1-3 ft E of 90W. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region through Fri, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh winds in the western Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings through at least Wed. A trough, or low pressure, may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, perhaps from late Thu through Fri night accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving through the central Caribbean, enhancing convective activity, and producing a locally tighter pressure gradient. This pressure gradient is supporting fresh winds across the central Caribbean. Fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure centered over southern Georgia and broad low pressure around recently upgraded TD Three-E. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range E of 75W, and 4-6 ft W of 75W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the the majority of the basin, along with mostly moderate seas. The pressure gradient will tighten between the Atlantic ridge and broad low pressure around TD Three-E. The tightening pressure gradient will support strengthening trade winds, with moderate to locally rough seas, starting this evening in the north-central and NW Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras. A trough, or low pressure, may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche later this week, keeping a tight pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 26N67W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the trough axis. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered near 36N31W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the waters E of 50W, as well as S of 20N between 50W and 61W. Light to gentle winds cover the waters N of 23N and W of 65W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range E of 44W, 3-4 ft N of 24N and W of 50W, and 5-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will remain nearly stationary through the early part of the week. A weak cold front will move across the N waters Tue, then stall near 27-28N through Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward north of the area through the end of the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending toward Florida and southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the far western portion of the basin during the week. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC082303_C_KWBC_20260608230410_32440682-2279-TWDAT.txt ****0000005744**** AXNT20 KNHC 082303 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Jun 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 24W-25W, from 16N southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W, from 16N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W, from 17N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is along 75W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The tropical wave is interacting with an upper level trough to it's W, enhancing convection. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 19N between 70W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14.5N17W and extends to 11N21W. The ITCZ extends from 11N21W to 09N24W, then from 07.5N26W to 07N35W, then from 06.5N38W to 06N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04.5N to 10.5N between 17W and 35W, and from 01.5N to 08N between 36W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered offshore of Georgia. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure, and low pressure around TS Boris, and TS Cristina is supporting moderate E winds over the SE Gulf. Gentle winds prevail across the NE Gulf, while moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range west of 90W, and 2-3 ft E of 90W. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region through Fri, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh winds in the western Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate to fresh E winds pulsing to fresh to speeds during the evenings through at least Wed. Looking ahead, a trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, perhaps from late Thu through Fri night, accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving through the central Caribbean, and interacting with an upper level trough over the basin W of 72W, which is enhancing convective activity, and producing a locally tighter pressure gradient. This is supporting fresh to locally strong E-SE winds across the central Caribbean N of 14N. Fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras due to the pressure gradient between the W Atlantic high pressure and broad low pressure around TS Cristina. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range E of 78W, and 4-6 ft W of 78W. For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and TS Cristina in the Eastern Pacific, currently offshore Nicaragua, supports fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas starting in the north-central and NW Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. These conditions will likely last through much of the remaining forecast period. In addition, a trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche perhaps later Thu through Fri night, maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 28N72W through the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are E of the trough axis to 62W, from 22.5N to 27.5N . High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near 35N33W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the waters E of 50W, as well as S of 20N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds cover the waters N of 23N and W of 65W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range E of 42W, 3-4 ft N of 24N and W of 50W, and 5-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough through the SE Bahamas will remain nearly stationary through the early part of the week. A weak cold front will move across the N waters Tue, then move very slowly or stall on Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward north of the area through the end of the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending toward Florida and southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the far western section of the basin during the week. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################