--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC100449_C_KWBC_20260910045029_21889468-1806-TWDAT.txt ****0000004647**** AXNT20 KNHC 100449 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 23W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave is near 61W, south of 20N and extends into Guyana, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the northern half of the wave environment. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 70W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly N of 14N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N17W, and continues southwestward to 09N37W. The ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 11N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm on either side of the boundaries and W of 21W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak 1016 mb low pressure is analyzed near 28N88W, with a surface trough extending from 27N94W to 28N84W. Scattered showers are noted near these features. To the SE, a diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over most of Florida. Light to gentle winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf waters, with the exception of gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas over the Bay of Campeche due to the presence of the above mentioned trough. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist into the start of next week, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas, over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the eastern Caribbean likely associated with the passage of a tropical wave. Convection has flared-up over most of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Gulf of Honduras. An upper-level low spinning just south of the Cayman Islands is enhancing this convective activity. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near- gale force, through tonight before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas will prevail over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N54W and continues westward to near 29N69W where it becomes a stationary front to near 29N70W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are found N of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen N of 27N and E of the front to about 40W. A surface trough is south of the front, and extends from 26N73W to central Cuba. This feature is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. The remainder of the forecast waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered located SW of the Azores near 35N27W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa is promoting moderate to fresh NE winds N of 25N and E of 30W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are observed over most of the tropical Atlantic, and S of 22N between 60W and 70W. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in general moderate across the Atlantic forecast waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front over the NE waters will shift east of the area Thu. High pressure ridging will build across the region in the wake of the front. Light to gentle winds are expected in the vicinity of the ridge, N of 21N. Moderate to fresh winds S of 21N will diminish slightly by this weekend. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################