--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2025-11-27 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC270610_C_KWBC_20251127061147_16515500-533-TWDAT.txt ****0000005849**** AXNT20 KNHC 270610 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Nov 27 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough runs westward from the Sierra Leone Coast just south of Freetown to near 07N55W, then continues as an ITCZ from 07N55W to 07N30W to 06N48W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present near these features from 03N to 10N between the Sierra Leone/Liberia coast and 44W. Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and western Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends southwestward from the Florida Panhandle near Saint Joseph Bay to southwest of New Orleans at 27N93W, then continues as a stationary front to beyond the southern tip of Texas. Patchy showers are occurring up to 40 nm along either side of this boundary. A surface trough is causing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection across the west-central Gulf, and at the southern Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are evident near and beyond north of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas of 2 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will move southeast and is expected to extend from near Tampa, Florida to Tampico, Mexico Thu morning, from the Florida Straits to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico Thu night, Then exit the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front, with conditions improving Fri night through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in the northwestern Gulf Fri night and Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold front will emerge from the Texas coast Sat night and meander slowly southeastward across the northwestern Gulf Sun through Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE winds and 10 to 12 ft seas are seen at the south-central and parts of the western basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NNE to E winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will sustain fresh to strong trades across all but the northwestern basin through Thu morning, with locally near-gale winds and rough seas off Colombia. These winds seas should gradually diminish through Fri afternoon as the high shifts eastward. A new cold front will slowly enter the northwestern Caribbean on Fri, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front should stall from central Cuba to the southern Yucatan Peninsula by Sat morning, then gradually wash out over the northwestern Caribbean by Sat evening, with conditions improving during the remainder of the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N36W through 26N50W to 25N60W. Widely scattered showers are evident up to 40 nm along either side of the front. A surface trough near the east coast of Florida is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off southeastern Florida, including the northwest Bahamas. Convergent trades are causing widely scattered showers near the Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the very beginning for addition convection. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 6 to 8 ft seas are found near and up to 150 nm north of the front, and also north of Puerto Rico and near the Turks and Caicos. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to SSE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft dominate north of 20N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast, For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle with locally moderate SE to S winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the front east of 65W will diminish through Thu morning, as the front dissipates. A 1030 mb Bermuda High to the north of the front will help to sustain fresh to strong ENE winds south of 23N and in the approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before diminishing on Thu. A new cold front will emerge off of the northeastern end Florida coast tonight, bringing with it fresh to locally strong N to NE winds behind the front. The cold front will extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits Thu night, from 31N63W through the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate from 31N59W through the northwestern Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, before gradually diminishing from west to east Sun. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC271042_C_KWBC_20251127104248_16515500-551-TWDAT.txt ****0000004825**** AXNT20 KNHC 271042 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Nov 27 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough runs westward from the Sierra Leone Coast to near 07N15W, then continues as the ITCZ from 07N15W to 08N35W to 06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present near these features from 03N to 12N between the Liberia coast and 45W. Aided by divergent flow aloft, the eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing numerous heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms over the Caribbean offshore waters of Costa Rica, western Panama and Nicaragua. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 27N92W where it stalls and then continues to southern Texas. Active showers and thunderstorms are ahead of this frontal boundary being enhanced by the presence of two surface troughs, one over the SE basin and the other in the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds follow this front along with seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and is expected to extend from near Tampa to Tampico later this morning, from the Florida Straits to near Cabo Rojo, Mexico tonight, and then exit the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front, with conditions improving Fri night through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold front will emerge from the Texas coast Sat night and meander slowly southeastward across the NW Gulf Sun through Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient associated with the Bermuda High and lower pressure linked to the E extension of the Pacific monsoon continues to support strong to near gales off Colombia and most of the SW basin. Seas with these winds are rough in the 8 to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh are elsewhere in the central and E Caribbean along with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are ongoing in the NW Caribbean waters. Otherwise, heavy showers and scattered tstms are affecting the offshore waters of W Panama, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain strong to near gale-force trades over the SW and portions of the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through Fri morning. Moderate to fresh trades are forecast elsewhere in the eastern and central basin through Mon. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri morning, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front is forecast to stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night, then gradually dissipate over the NW Caribbean on Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends southwestward from 31N36W through 26N50W to 24N61W. High pressure of 1029 mb N of this boundary continues to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the central subtropical Atlantic waters between 38W and 68W where seas are rough to 10 ft. A new cold front is emerging off of the NE Florida coast this morning, preceded and followed by moderate to fresh winds. Seas are moderate. Surface ridging along with moderate or weaker winds and seas are ongoing elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the stationary front east of 65W will diminish this morning, as the front dissipates. A 1029 mb Bermuda High to the north of the front will help to sustain fresh E-NE winds south of 23N and in the approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before diminishing on Fri. The new cold front coming off the NE Florida coast this morning will be followed by fresh to locally strong N to NE winds. The cold front will extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits tonight, from 31N63W through the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate from 31N59W the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, gradually diminishing from west to east Sun. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################