--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC060333_C_KWBC_20260606033434_9109880-4991-TWDAT.txt ****0000006932**** AXNT20 KNHC 060333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Jun 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the process of moving into the far eastern Atlantic Ocean from western Africa. A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic Ocean along 28W, south of 13N, analyzed more to the W compared to several hours ago based on the latest derived proxy visible satellite imagery, TPW imagery, scatterometer data, and tropical wave model diagnostics. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 25W and 32.5W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic Ocean along 52W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 02N to 11N between 44W and 57W. A tropical wave is now in the far eastern Caribbean Sea along 62W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Associated convection is now mainly confined inland over portions of Venezuela. A tropical wave is moving from the central to the western Caribbean Sea along 77W/78W, south of 18N or eastern Jamaica. This tropical wave is now analyzed quite a bit more to the W compared to several hours ago based on all available analysis tools. Scattered moderate to strong convection is active near the northern portion from 14N to 19N between 73W and 78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of western Africa near 12.5N16W and continues southwestward to 04N31W. The ITCZ extends from 04N31W to 06N51W with a tropical wave just to the W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 21W and 26W. Additional convection is described above with two tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak surface trough, partially the western remnants of an old frontal boundary, is losing definition over the NW Gulf. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible near this feature. This trough combined within ridging over the southeastern United States supports fresh to locally strong winds near SE Louisiana and offshore Mississippi and Alabama. A surface trough is analyzed over the western Yucatan Peninsula along 90W to the S of 23N. This trough supports fresh to strong N-E winds along the coast and just offshore of the northern and western Yucatan, along with 5-7 ft seas. Mainly gentle to moderate E-SE winds prevail across the remainder of the basin, locally fresh near and through the Straits of Florida. Seas are 2-5 ft across the remainder of the basin, lowest in the eastern Gulf coastal waters of Florida, and offshore Veracruz. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the Gulf region. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on a tropical wave now in the far eastern Caribbean Sea and another moving from the central to western Caribbean Sea, including associated convection. Otherwise, some scattered convection is possible in the SW Caribbean Sea near the extension of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough along 10N/11N. Ridging from the central and eastern Atlantic mid-latitudes extends to just N of the Greater Antilles. This ridging combined with the tropical waves supports moderate to fresh winds in the central and eastern Caribbean, locally fresh in the S-central, and fresh to strong E-SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the basin, except light and variable in the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-6 ft across much of the basin, except 3-4 ft in the SW Caribbean, and 2-3 ft in the Lee of Cuba in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The exception will be fresh to strong pulses in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Winds will begin to increase again over the central Caribbean by Sat night, and over the NW part of the basin early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and broad area of low pressure over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central America. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The most recent High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France had the Gale Warning in the Agadir forecast zone/region ending at 0000 UTC. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection and two tropical waves moving through the Atlantic. A stationary front extends from N of the area through 31N63.5W to near the SE Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands where it is dissipating. Associated widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be found on either side of the front. Moderate to fresh S-S winds are noted N of 26N within about 60-120 nm ahead of the front, along with 5-6 ft seas. High pressure of 1020 mb is behind the front offshore the Carolinas near 33N76W. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E flow is found near and through the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere behind the front. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft W of the front in a mix of swells. To the E, high pressure of 1030 mb near 34N33W dominates the waters E of the stationary front. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressures over NW Africa supports fresh to strong N-NE winds N of 17N and E of 20W, with seas of 7-12 ft. Mainly moderate to fresh NE-E winds are found elsewhere N of 15N and E of 40W, and S of 20N and W of 30W, along with seas of 6-8 ft in mainly NE-E swells. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow prevails across the remainder of the waters E of the front in the Atlantic. Seas of 4-6 ft are across the remainder of the basin E of the front. For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary extending from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western Cuba will dissipate late into Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. This pattern will support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into early next week. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC060936_C_KWBC_20260606093732_32440682-2013-TWDAT.txt ****0000005800**** AXNT20 KNHC 060936 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Jun 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa. Its axis is along 17W S of 15N. The Howmoller Diagram indicates the westward propagation of this system. The TPW also shows the presence of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis. A second tropical wave is near 30W, south of 13N moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 03N to 06N between 25W and 34W. Another tropical wave is along 54W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 02N to 10N between 47W and 58W. A tropical wave is now in the far eastern Caribbean Sea along 63W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over portions of eastern Venezuela. Another tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean Sea. Its axis is along 80W, south of 18N into the EPAC region. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed near the northern portion of the wave axis and just south of Jamaica to about 14N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of western Africa near 12.5N16W and continues southwestward to 04N28W. The ITCZ extends from 02N31W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5N51W where scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 04N W of 48W. Additional convection across the area is related to the above mentioned tropical waves. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the western Atlantic and the SE of the United States extends a ridge across the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh winds in the Straits of Florida and to the N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are slight to moderate within these wind speeds. An area of showers and thunderstorms is noted over the SW Gulf, particularly S of 22.5N and W of 94W. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf through at least early next week. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will allow moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings. Slight to moderate seas are expected. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for more details. High pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low supports moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the majority of the basin, with the exception of the SW Caribbean where light to gentle winds are noted per recent scatterometer data. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds are blowing in the Gulf of Honduras with moderate seas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring just south of Jamaica, and in the SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean today as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will begin to increase again over the central Caribbean late tonight into Sun, and over the NW part of the basin Sun night into Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central America. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving westward between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. A frontal boundary extends from 31N60W to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the front. High pressure over the southeastern United States and the western Atlantic follows this system. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure situated SW of the Azores 34N33W. Under the influence of this feature, a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is seen N of 20N E of front to about 25W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 25W, including the Canary Islands. The strongest winds are between the islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to dissipate today. A surface trough will linger and drift westward through Mon night. Then, a cold front will reach the northern forecast waters on Tue, and move southward to near 27N by Tue night. This weather pattern will support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into early next week. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC061648_C_KWBC_20260606164840_9109880-5045-TWDAT.txt ****0000006020**** AXNT20 KNHC 061648 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Jun 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1647 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa earlier this morning has it axis along 18.5W, south of 15N. This wave is moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02N to 06N between 15W and 20W. A second tropical wave is near 31W, south of 13N moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 02N to 07N between 25W and 34W. Another tropical wave is along 56W, south of 13.5N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 04N to 10N between 48W and 57W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean Sea along 65W, south of 14.5N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over portions of Venezuela. Another tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean Sea. Its axis is along 81W, south of 18.5N into the EPAC region. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed near the southern portion of the wave axis and along the eastern end of the EPAC monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of western Africa near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 03N33W. The ITCZ extends from 03N33W to the coast of Brazil near 02N49.5W where scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N W of 42W. Additional convection across the area is related to the above mentioned tropical waves. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the western Atlantic and the SE of the United States extends a ridge across the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate SE winds, with the exception of moderate to fresh winds N and W of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are slight to moderate within these wind speeds. A surface trough over the western part of the basin is supporting scattered moderate convection south of 26N and west of 91W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is depicted north of 28N between 86W and 89W. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf through at least early next week. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings. Slight to moderate seas will prevail with these winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for more details. High pressure north of the area combined with lower pressures across South America supports moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the majority of the basin, with the exception of the SW Caribbean where light to gentle winds are noted. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring just south of the Hispaniola, Jamaica, and in the SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean today as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will begin to increase again over the central Caribbean late tonight into Sun, and over the NW part of the basin Sun night into Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific offshore of Central America. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving westward between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. A frontal boundary extends from 31N61W to near 25N74W. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from 27N66W to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along these two features. High pressure over the southeastern United States and the western Atlantic follows this frontal boundary. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure situated SW of the Azores 34N37W. Under the influence of this feature, a gentle to moderate E to SE flow is seen N of 20N E of front to about 43W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 43W, including the Canary Islands. The strongest winds are between the islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary will begin to weaken today and dissipate early on Sun. A surface trough will linger and drift westward through Mon night. A cold front will reach from near 31N59W by late Tue, from near 30N55W to 26N63W and stationary to 27N69W, then shift E of the area Thu as a high center N of the area slides eastward along 33N. This weather pattern will generally support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into next week, except for moderate to fresh trades S of 22N between Hispaniola and Cuba beginning late Wed.$$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC062303_C_KWBC_20260606230441_32440682-2067-TWDAT.txt ****0000006882**** AXNT20 KNHC 062303 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Jun 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave that emerged off of Africa earlier this morning has it axis along 20W, south of 15N, moving W at around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is depicted from 03N to 08N between 14W and 26W. A tropical wave is near 32W, south of 13N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 02N to 06N between 27W and 34W. Another tropical wave is along 57W-58W, south of 13.5N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident from 02.5N to 12N between 51W and 59W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean Sea along 66W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over portions of Venezuela, but no significant convection is seen over the Caribbean. Another tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean Sea. Its axis is along 82W-83W, south of 19N into the EPAC region, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed behind the wave N of 15N and across the waters and islands of Jamaica, and eastern Cuba, as it interacts with an upper trough along 80W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also near the southern portion of the wave axis and along the eastern end of the EPAC monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 03N35W. The ITCZ extends from 03N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01.5N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is about the ITCZ from 02N to 06N between 35W and 48W. Additional convection across the area is related to the tropical waves mentioned above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the western Atlantic W of Bemuda extends west-southwestward into the SE United States and NE Gulf waters, supporting gentle to moderate SE to S winds across most of the basin, with the exception of moderate to fresh E-NE winds through the Florida Straits. Seas are slight to moderate within these wind speeds, with maximum seas to 6 ft occurring NW of the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface trough over the western part of the basin is supporting scattered moderate convection south of 26.5N and west of 92W. Scattered moderate convection over coastal Mississippi and Alabama is shifting into those area coastal waters. For the forecast, the west Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf and moderate to fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf through Mon. Winds will be easterly at mostly fresh speeds across most of the western and central Gulf S of 26N through midweek. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings through Wed. Slight to moderate seas will prevail with these winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Caribbean Sea. Please, see the Tropical Waves section above for more details. High pressure north of the area is centered just W of Bermuda, and is combining with lower pressures across South America to support moderate to locally fresh E-SE trade winds and moderate seas across the majority of the basin, with the exception of the SW Caribbean where light to gentle winds are noted. An upper level trough along 80W is supporting scattered moderate to strong convection N of 15N between 70W and 80W, including diurnal convection over Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba, as will as along the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, patches of low level clouds, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean through Sun as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Winds will begin to increase again over the central Caribbean late tonight into Sun, and over the NW part of the basin Sun night into Mon as the pressure gradient tightens between the Atlantic ridge and a broad area of low pressure located over the eastern Pacific offshore waters of Central America. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving westward between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. A stalled frontal boundary extends through 31N58W to near 25N76W. SE of the front, a surface trough extends from 27N64W to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along and S of these two features. 1022 mb high pressure over the southeastern United States and the western Atlantic follows this frontal boundary. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure situated SW of the Azores near 33N33W. Under the influence of this feature, a gentle to moderate E to SE flow is seen N of 22N E of front to about 45W. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are found north of 17N and east of 40W, including the Canary Islands. The strongest winds are between the islands. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles, except between Barbados and 50W where recent satellite altimeter data showed a broad zone of 7-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary will will dissipate tonight. A surface trough extending to its southeast and into the southeastern Bahamas will drift westward through Mon night. A new cold front will reach from near 31N59W by late Tue, from near 30N55W to 26N63W and stationary to 27N69W, then shift E of the area Thu as a high center N of the area slides eastward along 33N. This weather pattern will generally support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into next week, except for moderate to fresh trades S of 22N between Hispaniola and Cuba starting late Wed. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################