--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC060443_C_KWBC_20260806044451_49676782-279-TWDAT.txt ****0000004530**** AXNT20 KNHC 060443 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Aug 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 31W from 06N to 17N, moving west at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 46W from 08N to 18N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 86W and S of 20N, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from eastern Panama to northeast Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 23N16W and continues southwestward to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N45W to 06N57W. Scattered showers are noted along the monsoon trough between 31W-44W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1019 mb high pressure is centered over northern Florida. This pattern is supporting moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas over the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. A mid-to-upper level trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms active over the southeast Gulf and the Florida peninsula. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin, promoting gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Pulses of fresh winds will occur west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night, locally strong tonight, along with moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection in the basin. Fresh to strong E trade winds and 8 to 9 ft seas persist across the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean, between high pressure north of area and lower pressure over northern South America. Moderate E winds and 3-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through Mon night. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale- force speed at night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times this weekend with the increase in wind speed. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds and seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid-to-upper level trough extends from between Bermuda and eastern Cuba is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active along a surface trough extending from 27N67W to 20N71W. Fresh E winds and rough seas are ongoing near the trough, from 23N to 26N between 65W and 672W. In the far NE Atlantic, strong N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the passages of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails, with gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned mid-to-upper level trough will keep scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas through at least tonight. A westward moving surface trough moving N of Hispaniola tonight will approach the Bahamas Thu before shifting west of the area by late Fri, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas. Winds may pulse to fresh to strong at times from north of Hispaniola to the Windward Passage. Otherwise, weak ridging settles across the northern and central waters during the upcoming weekend and into early next week, bringing tranquil marine conditions. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC061034_C_KWBC_20260806103453_49676782-295-TWDAT.txt ****0000006178**** AXNT20 KNHC 061034 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Aug 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The Bermuda High will shift southward to the SW N Atlantic waters over the weekend, which will tighten the pressure gradient in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean, thus resulting in the acceleration of winds from fresh to strong to fresh to near gale force off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Regional effects will further enhance the winds to gale force offshore Colombia at night Fri and Sat, thus building seas from rough to very rough. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the E Atlantic with axis near 33W, extending from 06N to 16N, and moving west at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 31W and 39W. A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis near 48W, extending from 07N to 18N, and moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is in the far W Caribbean with axis near 87W, extending southward from 19N into the E Pacific waters, and moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 11N30W to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 10N40W to 09N45W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 08N49W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection associated with two tropical waves in the section above, numerous moderate isolated strong convection is offshore W Africa associated with the next tropical wave forecast to emerge off the coast later this morning. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1025 mb high located just NW of Bermuda extends a ridge across northern Florida SW into the Gulf, except for the Bay of Campeche where a surface trough is generating scattered showers and supporting moderate to fresh E winds along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, return flow is gentle to moderate and seas slight. For the forecast, surface ridging from the Bermuda High will dominate across most of the Gulf through late Mon, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds N of 22N along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are forecast for this portion of the basin through Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high located just NW of Bermuda and relatively lower pressure in northern South America continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere over the E Caribbean, the Gulf of Honduras and in the lee side of Cuba. Seas are slight to moderate over the NW basin and moderate over the E Caribbean. In terms of shower activity, a surface trough starting to move across the Turks and Caicos is supporting scattered showers and tstms in the Windward Passage while the E extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough is supporting similar convection offshore Costa Rica, Nicaragua and Panama. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through Mon night. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speed at night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times this weekend with the increase in wind speed. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period, except over the weekend when winds are likely to pulse to strong speed. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh easterlies will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging from the Azores-Bermuda Highs dominate the subtropical Atlantic waters, which is supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds between 23W and 60W. Over the far NE Atlantic, strong N-NE winds and moderate to rough seas are evident off Morocco and in the passages of the Canary Islands while a surface trough moving across the Turks and Caicos is supporting fresh to strong winds and scattered heavy showers over the Bahamas offshores. For the forecast west of 55W, an upper-level low NE of Freeport will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore E Florida and in the Great Bahama Bank through early this evening. However, a westward moving surface trough over the central and southern Bahamas offshores, will resume the shower activity across the Florida seaboard and offshores Fri morning before shifting west of the area Fri night into early Sat. Aside from the shower activity, the surface trough will bring fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas across the Bahamas offshores through tonight. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approaches of the Windward Passage through the period, reaching strong speeds Sun night into Mon as the Bermuda High shifts southward. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC061653_C_KWBC_20260806165324_47448518-285-TWDAT.txt ****0000007488**** AXNT20 KNHC 061653 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Aug 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Mon night. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speed at night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times this weekend with the increase in wind speed. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is added to the 1200 UTC Unified Surface Analysis along 19W south 20N. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 15W and 21W, and from 11N to 14N between 19W and 22W. A second tropical wave is along 38W S of 20N, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 34W and 40W. A third tropical wave is along 51W S of 20N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is along northern Central America with axis along 89W. Please, see the TWDEP for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near Dakar and continues southwestward to near 10N36W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to the coast of Venezuela near 09.5N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, limited convective activity is noted elsewhere. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure of 1027 mb located near Bermuda extends a ridge westward across Florida into the Gulf region while a surface trough is analyzed over the central Bay of Campeche. Under this weather pattern, a light to gentle anticyclonic flow prevail, with the exception of gentle to moderate E to SE winds on the east side of the aforementioned trough. Slight to moderate seas are noted, with the highest seas in the Bay of Campeche. Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to develop over parts of Florida, the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf as an upper-level low remains over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, surface ridging from the Bermuda High will dominate across most of the Gulf through late Mon, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds N of 22N along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are forecast for this portion of the basin through Mon night. In addition, a surface trough currently located over the western Atlantic and the Turks and Caicos Islands will continue to move across the Bahamas today and tonight before reaching Florida on Friday, leading to increased shower activity. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high located near Bermuda and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades are elsewhere over the E Caribbean, the Gulf of Honduras and in the lee side of Cuba. Seas are generally moderate. In terms of shower activity, a surface trough starting to move across the Turks and Caicos Islands combined with an upper-level low spinning between Haiti and Jamaica is supporting scattered showers and tstms in the Windward Passage as well as in the vicinity of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The east extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough is supporting similar convective activity offshore NW Colombia and eastern Panama. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through Mon night. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speed at night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times this weekend with the increase in wind speed. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period, except over the weekend when winds may pulse to strong speed. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh easterlies will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... As is typical for this time of the year, three tropical waves are moving between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. About 60 tropical waves develop over North Africa each year. A surface trough is analyzed over the western Atlantic, and runs from 28N69W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are associated with this trough covering the waters from 23N to 29N between 67W and 75W. Fresh to locally strong winds are on either side of the trough axis between 25N and 28N with seas of 8 to 10 ft based on scatterometer and altimeter data. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of high pressure, with the main center of 1027 mb situated near Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa supports fresh to strong N to NE winds offshore Morocco and Western Sahara, including the Canary Islands with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE winds are seen per scatterometer data ahead of the tropical wave located near 51W. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, an upper-level low NE of Freeport will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms offshore E Florida and in the Great Bahama Bank through early this evening. A westward moving surface trough over the central and southern Bahamas offshores, will resume the shower activity across the Florida seaboard and offshores Fri morning before shifting west of the area Fri night into early Sat. Aside from the shower activity, the surface trough will bring fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas across the Bahamas offshores through tonight. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approaches of the Windward Passage through the period, reaching strong speeds Sun night into Mon as the Bermuda High shifts southward. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################