--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC050432_C_KWBC_20260505043308_49676782-2539-TWDAT.txt ****0000004357**** AXNT20 KNHC 050432 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue May 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W, S of 11.5N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W S of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17.5W, and continues southwestward to 03N25W. The ITCZ continues from 03N25W to 02S43.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of 05N between 12.5W and 28.5W, and S of 03N between 34.5W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula across the Yucatan channel. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail west of 88W along with seas 2 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds prevail with seas 1 to 2 ft. A surface trough over the western Gulf is supporting scattered moderate convection from 22.5N to 26N and west of 91.5W. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipated by Tue. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf starting Tue as high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong from Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico Tue night into Wed. Similar winds will pulse near the northern Yucatan Wed evening. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf coastal waters Thu morning, quickly stalling Thu evening, then retreating back inland Fri as ridging builds back in across the basin from the east. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, except for strong winds over the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Light and variable winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are over the NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean along with locally rough seas, with similar winds in the Gulf of Honduras through the week and into the weekend, with moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean. The remnants of a frontal boundary dissipate by Tue in the far NW basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N61.5W to the Central Bahamas and western Cuba. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is near the western Bahamas and north of 26N. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and seas of 5 to 7 ft, prevail west of the front. Farther east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 31N23W. The remainder of the discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 34N46W. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 16N between 31W and 60W. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, generally prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will remain stationary into Tue, then the northern portions will shift east as a cold front Tue night and Wed. Fresh to locally strong NE winds N of the front will slowly diminish into mid-week as the boundary weakens, with quiescent conditions expected Wed and Thu for area waters. A weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu night and steadily move eastward through the end of the week. High pressure ridging and a relatively week pressure gradient should prevail by the weekend. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC050907_C_KWBC_20260505090736_47448518-2659-TWDAT.txt ****0000004659**** AXNT20 KNHC 050907 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue May 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W, S of 22N, moving slowly westward. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 07N between 16W and 21W. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W, S of 18N, and is nearly stationary. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W, and continues southwestward to 02N30W. The ITCZ continues from 02N30W to near the coast of 02N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of 03N between 12.5W and 28.5W, and S of 03N between 34W and 51W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extending from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula across the Yucatan channel. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are over the western Gulf, with gentle E-SE winds and 1-3 ft seas over the eastern half. For the forecast, the front will dissipate today. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf today as high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong from Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico tonight into Wed. Similar winds will pulse near the northern Yucatan Wed evening. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf coastal waters Thu morning, quickly stalling Thu evening, then retreating back inland Fri as ridging builds back in across the basin from the east. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, except for strong winds over the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia. Light and variable winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are over the NW Caribbean, except for moderate to fresh E-SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas, with similar winds in the Gulf of Honduras through the week and into the weekend, with moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean. The remnants of a frontal boundary dissipate by Tue in the far NW basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N61W to 23.5N73W to 1012 mb low pressure near 25N75W to the Straits of Florida. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is near the Central Bahamas from 24N to 26N between 74W and 78W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted N of 26N within roughly 180 nm ahead of the front. Winds near the front have diminished slightly during the past several hours, with gentle to moderate winds across the offshore waters N of 19N. Seas are 3-5 ft SE of the front to 55W, and 4-7 ft in NW-N swell W of the front. A tropical wave is in the Tropical N Atlantic and is described more above. Farther east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 29.5N29W. The remainder of the discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 34N45W. Fresh to strong NE winds and 7-10 ft seas are on the N side of the low. Moderate to locally fresh trades are S of 19N and W of 40W, where seas are 4-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the discussion waters, with mainly moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the SW N ATLC front will remain stationary into today, then the northern portions will shift east as a cold front tonight and Wed. moderate to locally fresh winds just north of the front will slowly diminish into mid-week as the boundary weakens, with quiescent conditions expected Wed and Thu for area waters. A weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu night and steadily move eastward through the end of the week. High pressure ridging and a relatively weak pressure gradient should prevail by the weekend. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC051715_C_KWBC_20260505171535_9109880-2616-TWDAT.txt ****0000005375**** AXNT20 KNHC 051715 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue May 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W, S of 11N, moving slowly westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection, also enhanced by the monsoon trough analyzed in the vicinity of this wave, is noted S of 09N between 15W and 26W. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 58W, S of 18N, and is moving westward at around 10 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W, and continues southwestward to 02N28W. The ITCZ continues from 02N28W to near 01N50W. In addition to the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of 04N between 30W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from the Florida Straits to offshore the NW coast of Cuba, with a frontal remnant trough then also analyzed southwestward through the Bay of Campeche. No significant convection is occurring with these features. Moderate to fresh SE winds are occurring in the NW Gulf, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf. For the forecast, a stationary front extending from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Peninsula across the Yucatan channel will dissipate by early this evening. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf today as high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong from Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico tonight into Wed. Similar winds will pulse near the northern Yucatan Wed evening. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf coastal waters Thu morning, quickly stall Thu evening, then retreat back inland Fri as ridging builds back in across the basin from the east. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A pair of scatterometer passes from earlier this morning showed fresh to strong trades occurring in the central Caribbean, where seas are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas are ongoing in the eastern and southwestern Caribbean. In the northwest Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas prevail. Isolated moderate convection is occurring along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas, with similar winds in the Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week and into the weekend along with moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. The remnants of a frontal boundary dissipate by Tue in the far northwest part of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N62W southwestward through the central and northern Bahamas to the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is along the front from the Bahamas northeastward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are N of the front while winds S of the front are gentle to moderate and from the SW. In the eastern Atlantic, a trough is analyzed from a 1017 mb low pres near 31N22W southwestward to near 20N31W. Another low pres is analyzed near 28N29W. The pressure gradient between these features and high pressure to the north is driving fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas N of 27N between 25W and 35W. Much of the remaining Atlantic is under the influence of ridging. Scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh trades across much of the Atlantic S of 15N, and gentle to moderate trades N of 15N and away from features described above. Moderate seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from 31N60W to a weak 1016 mb low near 27N68W, to 24N74W and northwestward to a weak 1013 mb low near 25.5N79.5W, and continues from this low southwestward to the Straits of Florida. The front will remain stationary today, then the northern portions will shift east as a cold front tonight and Wed. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds north of 27N west of the front to near 76W will diminish by late tonight as the frontal boundary weakens. A weak cold front will move offshore the Georgia and northeast Florida coasts Thu night. It will then slowly move eastward across the northwest forecast waters into early Fri, then become stationary near, or along 30N and west of 70W by Fri evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and near the front. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will be in place through the forecast period allowing for generally quiet conditions across the area. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################