--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC140409_C_KWBC_20260614040923_32440682-2794-TWDAT.txt ****0000005907**** AXNT20 KNHC 140409 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 09N and east of 33W . A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is currently occurring with this wave. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is currently occurring with this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 82W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Most convection with this wave is in the eastern North Pacific waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N27W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 03N29W and then continues from 03N41W to 00N50W. A few showers are seen near the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A few showers are noted on satellite imagery near the broad area of low pressure in the western Gulf. The tight pressure gradient between this low and a 1018 mb ridge in the eastern Gulf sustain fresh to locally strong SE winds and moderate to locally rough seas west of a line from southern Louisiana to NE Yucatan and north of 22N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, an elongated area of low pressure from just offshore of eastern Mexico to the central Bay of Campeche continues to produce bands of shower and thunderstorm activity, mainly across eastern portions. Significant development is not anticipated before the low pressure area shifts inland over eastern Mexico by early Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America on Tue or Wed while interacting with a frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and 1018 mb high pressure over the east-central Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, across the western Gulf through Sun night. The Atlantic ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and combine with lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture combined to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, north of 18N and between 74W and 82W. This activity is also affecting portions of central and eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica. Similar storms are also noted in the isthmus of Panama, Costa Rica, and nearby waters. The tight pressure gradient between the sub-tropical ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures in northern South America forces fresh to near gale easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas over much of the basin, south of 19N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 33 kt off northern Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends through 26N55W westward across central Florida along 28N and into the NE Gulf of America. The ridge will generally remain in place through Sun night to support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge north of the area will reorganize Sun night through early Tue then shift slowly NE through midweek, leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the central and southeast Bahamas and central and eastern Cuba. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging along 27N, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 22N and west of 35W. Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found north of 17N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge extends through 26N55W westward across central Florida along 28N and into the NE Gulf of America, and will generally remain in place through Sun night. The ridge will reorganize Sun night through early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Wed. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun evening, then become SE to S winds across much of the area waters through midweek. Fresh SW winds will briefly develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W late Sun into Sun night, then become moderate winds through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC141030_C_KWBC_20260614103126_32440682-2816-TWDAT.txt ****0000006317**** AXNT20 KNHC 141030 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 27W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 07.5N between 22W and 33W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W-44W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is near the wave axis. Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 60W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection follows the wave from 06N to 09.5N between 53W and 60W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection associated with this wave is along the monsoon trough in the SW Caribbean, while most associated convection is in the eastern North Pacific waters E of 88W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W and continues southwestward to 04.5N30W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N30W to 02.5N42W and then continues from 02N44W to 01N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is along the W coast of Africa from 01.5N to 11N E of 17W. Elsewhere, a few showers are seen near the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Widely scattered moderate convection is noted on satellite imagery across the western Gulf W of 95W, near the elongated area of low pressure along the Mexican coast, except for scattered moderate isolated strong convection S of 21N and W of 92.5W. A tight pressure gradient between this low and a 1018 mb high in the eastern Gulf is sustaining fresh to locally strong SE winds and moderate to locally rough seas 6 to 9 ft west of a line from SW Louisiana to the NE Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, an elongated area of low pressure has moved inland across coastal portions of eastern Mexico, but could re- emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tue or Wed while interacting with a frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and 1018 mb high pressure over the east- central Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas across the western Gulf through tonight, while scattered showers and thunderstorms continue there through Mon. The Atlantic ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and combine with lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A large cluster of moderate to strong convection persisting over the Cayman Islands and across the NW Caribbean waters between Jamaica and Cuba has begun to diminish recently, aided by middle to upper level troughing extending across the NW Bahamas and through the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate to strong convection has flared up along the monsoon trough across the SW Caribbean, behind the passing tropical wave. At the surface, the western Atlantic ridge extends through 26N55W westward across central Florida along 27N. The pressure gradient between this sub- tropical ridge and lower pressures in northern South America is forcing fresh to near gale easterly trade winds and rough seas over the central basin south of 198. Recent satellite scatterometer data captured winds up to 33 kt off northern Colombia, while satellite altimeter data showed seas in the area to near 12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail across all but far NW portions. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon and support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu, leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the Caribbean basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the central and southeast Bahamas and central and eastern Cuba, but have diminished in intensity in recent hours. A broad ridge dominates the Atlantic basin along 26N-27N, and extends across central Florida. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas south of 22N and west of 35W, except for 7 to 8 ft seas just E of the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found north of 15N and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon, then reorganize along 60W Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N, then become moderate to fresh through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow will prevail elsewhere through tonight then become gentle to moderate SE to S winds Mon through Wed. Fresh SW winds will develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W late Sun through early Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC141758_C_KWBC_20260614175929_32440682-2844-TWDAT.txt ****0000007404**** AXNT20 KNHC 141758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 28W south of 18N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 05N to 07N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W south of 18N moving westward at about 15 kt. No deep convection is presently occurring near this wave. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are possible near the axis. Scattered moderate convection in the wake of the wave is along and just inland the coast of South America between 58W and 63W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W south of 19N to inland Central America. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east of the wave as discussed below under the Caribbean Sea section. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W and continues southwestward to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N30W to 02N44W. It continues from 02N46W to 01N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is along the W coast of Africa from 01.5N to 11N east of 18W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A relatively weak and broad high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic westward to the north-central Gulf, with a 1019 mb high near 27N87W. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure is over eastern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between this low and the 1019 mb high is maintaining mostly fresh southeast winds over the western Gulf. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. The Yucatan Peninsula has moved offshore to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf from 27N to 28N west of 96W to inland eastern Texas. Similar activity is from 22N to 25N between 96W and the coast of Mexico, except to just inland Mexico from near Veracruz to 23N. Isolated showers are over the southwestern Gulf south of 21.5N and west of 93W. For the forecast, development of the broad area of low pressure is not expected during the next day or so while the low remains inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas during the next day or so. The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America around midweek while interacting with a frontal boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only marginally conducive for development. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and 1019 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough seas across the western Gulf through tonight, while scattered showers and thunderstorms continue there through Mon. The Atlantic ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and combine with lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The western Atlantic subtropical ridge axis extends through 26N55W westward across central Florida near 28N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in northern South America is generally inducing fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over the central portion of the basin south of 18N. Seas over these waters are 7 to 10 ft in east to southeast swell. Buoy 42058 at 15N75W is reporting east winds of 25 kt and seas to near 11 ft. Elsewhere, latest satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate to fresh winds trades. Moderate seas are over just about the entire basin, except in the northwest portion, where lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are present. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the southwestern part of the sea south of 11N from 80W west to along and just inland the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama is primarily associated to the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends into the southwestern Caribbean. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon and will support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu, leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad high pressure ridge dominates the Atlantic basin roughly along 26N-27N east of 43W and along 27N28N west of 43W, stretching across central Florida. The ridge is anchored by a 1026 mb high center near 29N32W and by a 1023 mb high center near 27N53W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressures in the tropical region is allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas south of about 21N and west of 35W, except from 13N to 25N from the coast of Africa to 35W where fresh northeast winds are present as noted in a satellite scatterometer data pass from this morning. Moderate seas are in this area as well. Otherwise, a weak trough is analyzed from near 31N37W to to 26N46W. No significant convection is present with this feature. The latest satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds elsewhere over the basin. Latest altimeter satellite data passes along with recent buoy reports are indicating slight to moderate seas elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge extends westward across central Florida and into the NE Gulf of America. The ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon, then reorganize Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly northeastward through Thu. This pattern will generally support moderate east to southeast trade winds S of 22N, then become moderate to fresh through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow will prevail elsewhere through tonight then become gentle to moderate SE to S winds Mon through Wed. Fresh SW winds develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W late Sun through early Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC141800_C_KWBC_20260614180029_32440682-2845-TWDAT.txt ****0000007417**** AXNT20 KNHC 141800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 28W south of 18N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 05N to 07N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W south of 18N moving westward at about 15 kt. No deep convection is presently occurring near this wave. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are possible near the axis. Scattered moderate convection in the wake of the wave is along and just inland the coast of South America between 58W and 63W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W south of 19N to inland Central America. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east of the wave as discussed below under the Caribbean Sea section. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W and continues southwestward to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N30W to 02N44W. It continues from 02N46W to 01N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is along the W coast of Africa from 01.5N to 11N east of 18W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A relatively weak and broad high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic westward to the north-central Gulf, with a 1019 mb high near 27N87W. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure is over eastern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between this low and the 1019 mb high is maintaining mostly fresh southeast winds over the western Gulf. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. The Yucatan Peninsula trough has moved offshore to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf from 27N to 28N west of 96W to inland eastern Texas. Similar activity is from 22N to 25N between 96W and the coast of Mexico, except to just inland Mexico from near Veracruz to 23N. Isolated showers are over the southwestern Gulf south of 21.5N and west of 93W. For the forecast, development of the broad area of low pressure is not expected during the next day or so while the low remains inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas during the next day or so. The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America around midweek while interacting with a frontal boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only marginally conducive for development. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and 1019 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough seas across the western Gulf through tonight, while scattered showers and thunderstorms continue there through Mon. The Atlantic ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and combine with lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The western Atlantic subtropical ridge axis extends through 26N55W westward across central Florida near 28N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in northern South America is generally inducing fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over the central portion of the basin south of 18N. Seas over these waters are 7 to 10 ft in east to southeast swell. Buoy 42058 at 15N75W is reporting east winds of 25 kt and seas to near 11 ft. Elsewhere, latest satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate to fresh winds trades. Moderate seas are over just about the entire basin, except in the northwest portion, where lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are present. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the southwestern part of the sea south of 11N from 80W west to along and just inland the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama is primarily associated to the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends into the southwestern Caribbean. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon and will support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu, leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad high pressure ridge dominates the Atlantic basin roughly along 26N-27N east of 43W and along 27N28N west of 43W, stretching across central Florida. The ridge is anchored by a 1026 mb high center near 29N32W and by a 1023 mb high center near 27N53W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressures in the tropical region is allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas south of about 21N and west of 35W, except from 13N to 25N from the coast of Africa to 35W where fresh northeast winds are present as noted in a satellite scatterometer data pass from this morning. Moderate seas are in this area as well. Otherwise, a weak trough is analyzed from near 31N37W to to 26N46W. No significant convection is present with this feature. The latest satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds elsewhere over the basin. Latest altimeter satellite data passes along with recent buoy reports are indicating slight to moderate seas elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge extends westward across central Florida and into the NE Gulf of America. The ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon, then reorganize Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly northeastward through Thu. This pattern will generally support moderate east to southeast trade winds south of 22N, then become moderate to fresh through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow will prevail elsewhere through tonight then become gentle to moderate SE to S winds Mon through Wed. Fresh SW winds develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W late Sun through early Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC141803_C_KWBC_20260614180329_32440682-2848-TWDAT.txt ****0000007473**** AXNT20 KNHC 141803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Jun 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 28W south of 18N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 05N to 07N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 44W south of 18N moving westward at about 15 kt. No deep convection is presently occurring near this wave. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are possible near the axis. Scattered moderate convection in the wake of the wave is along and just inland the coast of South America between 58W and 63W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W south of 19N to inland Central America. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is east of the wave as discussed below under the Caribbean Sea section. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16.5W and continues southwestward to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N30W to 02N44W. It continues from 02N46W to 01N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is along the W coast of Africa from 01.5N to 11N east of 18W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A relatively weak and broad high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic westward to the north-central Gulf, with a 1019 mb high near 27N87W. Meanwhile, a broad area of low pressure is over eastern Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between this low and the 1019 mb high is maintaining mostly fresh southeast winds over the western Gulf. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. The Yucatan Peninsula trough has moved offshore to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf from 27N to 28N west of 96W to inland eastern Texas. Similar activity is from 22N to 25N between 96W and the coast of Mexico, except to just inland Mexico from near Veracruz to 23N. Isolated showers are over the southwestern Gulf south of 21.5N and west of 93W. For the forecast, development of the broad area of low pressure is not expected during the next day or so while the low remains inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas during the next day or so. The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America around midweek while interacting with a frontal boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only marginally conducive for development. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and 1019 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong southeast winds and moderate to rough seas across the western Gulf through tonight, while scattered showers and thunderstorms continue there through Mon. The Atlantic ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and combine with lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The western Atlantic subtropical ridge axis extends through 26N55W westward across central Florida near 28N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in northern South America is generally inducing fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over the central portion of the basin south of 18N. Seas over these waters are 7 to 10 ft in east to southeast swell. Buoy 42058 at 15N75W is reporting east winds of 25 kt and seas to near 11 ft. Elsewhere, latest satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate to fresh winds trades. Moderate seas are over just about the entire basin, except in the northwest portion, where lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are present. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the southwestern part of the sea south of 11N from 80W west to along and just inland the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama is primarily associated to the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that extends into the southwestern Caribbean. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon and will support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu, leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad high pressure ridge dominates the Atlantic basin roughly along 26N-27N east of 43W and along 27N-28N west of 43W, stretching across central Florida. The ridge is anchored by a 1026 mb high center near 29N32W, and by a 1023 mb high center near 27N53W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressures in the tropics is allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds along with moderate seas south of about 21N and west of 35W, except from 13N to 25N from the coast of Africa to 35W where fresh northeast winds are present as noted in a satellite scatterometer data pass from this morning. Moderate seas are in this area as well. Otherwise, a weak trough is analyzed from near 31N37W to to 26N46W. No significant convection is present with this feature. The latest satellite scatterometer data passes indicate moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds elsewhere over the basin. Latest altimeter satellite data passes along with recent buoy reports are indicating slight to moderate seas elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic ridge extends westward across central Florida and into the NE Gulf of America. The ridge will generally remain in place through early Mon, then reorganize Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly northeastward through Thu. This pattern will generally support moderate east to southeast trade winds south of 22N, then become moderate to fresh through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow will prevail elsewhere through tonight then become gentle to moderate southeast to south winds Mon through Wed. Fresh southwest winds will develop across the NW forecast waters, namely north of 29N and west of 74W late Sun through early Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the southeastern U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC142038_C_KWBC_20260614203931_32440682-2857-TWDAT.txt ****0000005313**** AXNT20 KNHC 142038 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W south of 17N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from 05N to 09N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46/47W south of 18N moving westward at about 15 kt. No deep convection is presently occurring near this wave. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65/66W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection in the wake of the wave is along and just inland the coast of South America between 62W and 64W. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 86W south of 19N to inland Central America. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Most associated convection associated with this wave is in the eastern north pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Africa near 12N16W and extends SW to near 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 05N27W. It resumes from 04N31W to 04N45W. Aside from convection noted in the TROPICAL WAVES section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 14N between 10W and 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1018 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf. A 1007 mb low is centered over central Mexico. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate winds W of 90W. Light to gentle winds prevail over the waters E of 90W. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range W of 90W, and 1-2 ft E of 90W. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure located over eastern Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the low remains inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas. The system could then re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America around midweek while interacting with a frontal boundary, but conditions there are expected to be only marginally conducive for development. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and 1019 mb high pressure over the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas across the western Gulf through tonight, while scattered showers and thunderstorms continue there through Mon. The Atlantic ridge will build westward into the Gulf Tue through Thu, and combine with lower pressure over South Texas and northeastern Mexico will promote fresh to strong southerly winds over the western Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft prevail over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are over the eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, are found over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will generally remain in place through early Mon and will support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds to fresh to strong speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Thu. The ridge will reorganize Mon through early Tue then shift slowly NE through Thu, leading to a slight decrease in wind and seas across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1023 mb high near 27N53W, and a 1026 mb high near 29N32W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure, and falling pressure over Africa with a tropical wave over western Africa, is supporting fresh to strong winds N of 20N and E of 20W to the coast of Africa. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail elsewhere over the waters E of 30W, and S of 20N. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will generally remain in place through early Mon, then reorganize Mon through early Tue, then shift slowly NE through Thu. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N, then become moderate to fresh through Wed. Gentle anticyclonic flow will prevail elsewhere through tonight then become gentle to moderate SE to S winds Mon through Wed. Fresh SW winds develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W late Sun through early Mon, then expand eastward to 70W through early Wed, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################