--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC210419_C_KWBC_20260921042003_31523192-4200-TWDAT.txt ****0000005136**** AXNT20 KNHC 210419 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W, south of 16N, moving eastward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W, south of 20N, drifting slowly westward. No significant convection is noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 19N16W to 10N20W to 06N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N and east of 20W, and from 08N to 10N between 47W and 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper low centered over west-central Florida is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms off Panama City, Florida, off Tampa Bay, Florida, and over the Florida Straits. For the forecast, weak surface ridging across the southeastern U.S. will maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the basin through mid week. A vigorous upper-level low and associated surface low or trough over the central Gulf will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through the midweek, with the Straits of Florida the most active area. A cold front may sink into the northern Gulf Thu night through Fri, leading to a modest increase in winds across the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail east of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W. An upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms off, Nicaragua, southwest of Jamaica, and off eastern Cuba and the Windward Passage. For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between weak high pressure currently near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean throughout the upcoming work week. A vigorous upper- level low over the Gulf of America will promote scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the west and northwestern Caribbean through midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For awareness purposes, Tropical Storm Fay is centered northeast of the discussion area near 34.1N 31.9W at 21/0300 UTC or 335 nm southwest of the Azores, moving ESE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. An upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from the Florida Straits, off northern Cuba, across the central and southern Bahamas, and between the central Bahamas and Bermuda. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the discussion waters. Light to gentle winds prevail across the waters west of 45W, except reaching moderate speeds near the central and southern Bahamas. Slight to moderate seas prevail over these waters. E of 45W, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient across the western Atlantic will promote variable gentle to moderate winds across forecast waters through early Thu. A vigorous upper-level low over the Gulf of America and Florida, and abundant tropical moisture across the Atlantic will force scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters west of 70W through Wed. Low pressure will deepen offshore of the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. late Wed through Fri, allowing a cold front to move into the far NW waters and N Florida Thu through Fri. The front will be accompanied by increasing winds and the potential for large N-NE swell. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay is near 34.1N 31.9W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving east-southeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Fay will move to 33.7N 31.8W Mon morning, 32.7N 32.5W Mon evening, 31.6N 33.9W Tue morning, 30.8N 35.7W Tue evening, then weaken to a remnant low near 30.1N 37.6W Wed morning, and move to 29.6N 39.3W Wed evening. Fay will change little in intensity as it moves to 29.6N 42.2W late Thu. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC210846_C_KWBC_20260921084706_31523192-4225-TWDAT.txt ****0000004930**** AXNT20 KNHC 210846 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 30W, south of 18N, moving eastward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W, south of 21N, drifting slowly westward. Scattered moderate convection is active on the northern end of the tropical wave from 18N to 21N between 43W and 45W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 15N17W to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N and east of 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper low centered over west-central Florida is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms south of Apalachicola, Florida, and over the Florida Straits. For the forecast, weak surface ridging across the southeastern U.S. will maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the basin through midweek. A vigorous upper-level low and associated surface trough over the southern Gulf will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf through midweek, with the Straits of Florida the most active area. A cold front may sink into the northern Gulf Thu night through Fri, leading to a modest increase in winds across the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail east of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W. An upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms between Nicaragua and Jamaica, and off western Cuba. For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between weak high pressure currently near Bermuda and the Colombian Low will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through the week. A vigorous upper-level low over the eastern Gulf of America will continue to promote scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the west and northwestern Caribbean through midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For awareness purposes, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 33.8N 32.1W at 21/0900 UTC or 350 nm SW of the Azores, moving SSE at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. An upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of the upper trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from the Florida Straits, southeast Florida, and across the central and southern Bahamas. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the discussion waters. Light to gentle winds prevail across the waters west of 45W, except reaching moderate speeds near the central and southern Bahamas. Slight to moderate seas prevail over these waters. E of 45W, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient across the western Atlantic will promote variable gentle to moderate winds across forecast waters through early Thu. A vigorous upper-level low over the Gulf of America and Florida, and abundant tropical moisture across the Atlantic will force scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters west of 70W through Wed. Low pressure will deepen offshore of the middle Atlantic coast of the U.S. late Wed through Fri, allowing a cold front to move into the far NW waters and N Florida Thu through Fri. The front will be accompanied by increasing winds and the potential for large N-NE swell. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay will move to 33.2N 32.3W this afternoon, 32.3N 33.2W Tue morning, and 31.2N 34.9W Tue afternoon. Fay will weaken to a remnant low near 30.4N 36.7W Wed morning, then 29.8N 38.4W Wed afternoon, and 29.6N 40.1W Thu morning. Fay will change little in intensity as it moves to 29.5N 43.0W by early Fri. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC211711_C_KWBC_20260921171209_31523192-4259-TWDAT.txt ****0000004961**** AXNT20 KNHC 211711 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 30-31W, south of 19N, moving westward at around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from 21N43W to 06N48W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active on the northern end of the tropical wave from 18N to 22N between 41W and 45W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 16N and east of 25W. Scattered showers are also noted along and within 100 nm of these features W of 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A very weak pressure gradient prevails across the area generating light to gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. An upper low centered over northern Florida is interacting with a pair of surface troughs in the eastern Gulf to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 23N and E of 90W. Another surface trough extending into the Gulf from NE Mexico is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the W Gulf as well. For the forecast, a very weak pressure gradient will force only gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through Thu. A vigorous upper- level low will promote scattered showers and thunderstorms over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida for at least the next two days. Looking ahead, a cold front should dip into the NE Gulf Thu night and Fri with fresh NE to E winds to follow across the N Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean, with a 1010 mb surface low analyzed near 12N81W. These features are interacting with an upper level trough over the Gulf of America and NW Caribbean to support numerous moderate to strong convection across the Caribbean between 75-85W, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms noted along the coasts of Honduras, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Outside of convection, a weak pressure pattern is across the basin. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail east of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail west of 80W. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area to the Colombian Low is forcing only moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low is forcing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the next two days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For awareness, Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 33.3N 32.0W at 21/1500 UTC or 370 nm SW of the Azores, moving S at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Please visit hurricanes.gov for more info on Tropical Storm Fay. An upper trough reaches from the eastern Gulf into the northwest Caribbean. Divergent flow aloft on the east side of the upper trough is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms across a large area N of 20N and W of 67W. Farther eastward in the central Atlantic, an upper level low near 26N48W and surface trough extending from 32N41W to 22N55W are interacting with the central Atlantic tropical wave to support scattered moderate convection from 20N to 31N between 36W and 45W, as well as more scattered showers along and near the surface trough. Outside of convection, a very weak pressure gradient across much of the Atlantic supports gentle to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas across much of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a very weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda- Azores High and lower pressure over the ITCZ is promoting only gentle to moderate trades across forecast waters through Thu. A vigorous upper-level low will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms west of 65W for at least the next couple of days. Looking ahead, a cold front will emerge from the SE United States coast late Wed night and extend from 31N71W to the central Bahamas Fri morning. Fresh N winds and increasing seas will follow the front. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################