--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC190019_C_KWBC_20260519002030_32440682-520-TWDAT.txt ****0000005981**** AXNT20 KNHC 190019 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue May 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Agadir Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high near 31N35W and lower pressures over northern Africa supports strong to near gale force NE winds generally E of 20W and N of 17N. Winds are expected to increase today and accordingly, Meteo- France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir zone through at least 19/00 UTC. Rough seas will accompany these winds as well. For more information, please read the Meteo-France warning text and High Seas forecast at: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 22W from 11N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Patchy showers are seen from 02N to 06N between 20W and 22W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Windward Islands near 56W from 14N southward to over Suriname, and nearly stationary. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across Suriname and French Guiana. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from 16N southward across the western Panama and nearly stationary. Convection is addressed in the monsoon trough section below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast just north of Conakry, then runs southwestward to 05N19W. Farther west, an ITCZ reaches westward from 04N25W to 02N43W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of the monsoon trough near the coast of Sierra Leone and Liberia. Scattered moderate convection is present up to 200 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end fo the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A modest surface ridge extends west-southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to north of Tampico, Mexico. A thermal trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just off central and southwestern Florida. Otherwise, the ridge is supporting gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft for the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds with 3 to 5 ft seas exist north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will remain across the northern Gulf through the week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough reaches southeastward from a low east of the northwest Bahamas at 28N74W to southeast of Puerto Rico. It is enhancing scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across Cuba and Hispaniola, and nearby Caribbean waters. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds continues across the south-central basin, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas at the south-central basin are from 8 to 10 ft, and 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds with 2 to 5 ft seas are present at the lee of Cuba and, near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Wed, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Rough seas can be expected in the central Caribbean during this time. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the Atlantic waters near the Lesser Antilles into Tue night, then begin to subside. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough meanders west-southwestward from 32N49W to 28N73W. Coupling with an upper-level low east of the northwest Bahamas near 28N74W, scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 21N between 66W and 73W, and over the northwest and central Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate E to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident north of 20N west of 68W, except moderate to fresh winds with 4 to 6 ft seas off northern Hispaniola. To the east, a subtropical ridge extending west-southwestward from a 1027 mb Atlantic High near 31N32W to north of the Lesser Antilles near 27N60W is sustaining gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 25N between 35W and 68W. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and 6 to 9 ft seas dominate from 04N to 25N between 35W and 68W/Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will support fresh trade winds and rough seas with E swell east of the Leeward Islands and north of Hispaniola Thu. A surface trough from south of Bermuda to around 29N73W will dissipate tonight, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place through mid-week. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC190810_C_KWBC_20260519081036_32440682-543-TWDAT.txt ****0000004538**** AXNT20 KNHC 190810 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue May 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 11N and moving westward at 5 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 14N and moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across NE South America and nearby waters. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W, south of 16N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are present near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of the Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then runs southwestward to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 05N22W and then from 05N24W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is evident south of 08N and east of 15W and south of 06N and between 23W and 33W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf waters forcing fresh to strong E-SE winds and moderate seas west of a line from southern Louisiana to NE Yucatan and also in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Generally dry weather conditions dominate the basin, except for some showers reaching the nearshore waters of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will extend a ridge over and just north of the Gulf through the week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf early this week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings through mid-week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Favorable divergence aloft combines with tropical moisture and diurnal heating to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across portions of Cuba, Hispaniola and nearby waters along their southern coasts. A 1030 mb high pressure system to the north of the islands supports fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and seas of 6-10 ft across the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and and moderate winds are found in the eastern Caribbean and Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras through Wed, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Rough seas can be expected in the central Caribbean during this time. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into Tue night, then begin to subside. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A couple of surface trough and divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 69W. High pressure to the north forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas off northern Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident west of 55W and south of 28N. The central and eastern tropical Atlantic are under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that supports fresh to strong northerly winds north of 17N and east of 23W. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate to rough seas are present south of 24N and west of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds N of Hispaniola overnight. A surface trough from S of Bermuda to around 29N73W will dissipate overnight, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place through midweek. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC191007_C_KWBC_20260519100812_9109880-3550-TWDAT.txt ****0000004556**** AXNT20 KNHC 191007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue May 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 11N and moving westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is associated with this wave from 02N to 05N between 24W and 31W. An Atlantic tropical wave along 60W is approaching the Windward Islands S of 13N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly behind this wave, S of 08N between 50W and 60W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, moving into Central America, south of 16N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is impacting waters near Costa Rica and Panama in association with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of the Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then runs southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N25W to 00N50W. Convection near these features is primarily associated with the Atlantic tropical waves, described in the section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf waters forcing fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas west of a line from southern Louisiana to NE Yucatan and also in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Generally dry weather conditions dominate the basin, although a cluster of thunderstorms has moved offshore the Middle Texas coast early this morning. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will extend a ridge into the Gulf through the week. Into Wed, expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf, pulsing to strong each evening offshore the Yucatan Peninsula, due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure and low pressure over Mexico and Texas. Late this week, the pressure gradient will relax and even more tranquil marine conditions will prevail. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection continues in the Windward Passage and between Cuba and Jamaica due to upper level divergence. The other convection in the basin, offshore Central America, is due to a tropical wave described in the section above. High pressure of 1029 mb centered near Bermuda is aiding in a pressure gradient that supports strong winds across the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Rough seas of up to 11 ft accompany these winds. Elsewhere, fresh trades and moderate seas prevail, except for gentle to moderate winds in the Lee of Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and low pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Wed night, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Rough seas can be expected in the central Caribbean during this time. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into tonight, then begin to subside. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Aside from some scattered moderate convection NE of the Bahamas associated with a weak surface trough, the basin is void of thunderstorm activity. A cold front has slipped S of 31N, and extends from 31N45W to 29N60W. Some fresh SW winds are present E of this boundary to 35W, N of 28N. Otherwise, subtropical ridging dominates, bringing light to gentle winds and moderate seas N of 23N, with moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas to the south. E of the Lesser Antilles, decaying easterly swell is leading to some rough seas, that extend E to 45W. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered over the central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds N of Hispaniola into tonight. A surface trough from near Bermuda to NE of the Bahamas will dissipate today, leaving the basin dominated by tranquil marine conditions into late this week. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC191708_C_KWBC_20260519170936_49676782-3532-TWDAT.txt ****0000004742**** AXNT20 KNHC 191708 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue May 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave that was previously analyzed along 24W has weakened and dissipated, and thus has been removed from the 1200 UTC surface analysis. An Atlantic tropical wave along 60W is approaching the Windward Islands S of 16N, and is nearly stationary. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly behind this wave, S of 09N between 50W and 60W. The Caribbean tropical wave previously analyzed near 85W has moved inland over central America, and is now analyzed at 87W with the south end of the wave axis extending into the Pacific. Please see the Tropical Weather Discussion for the Eastern Pacific for information on this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W, then runs southwestward to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N to 05N between 23W and 36W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf waters forcing fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas west of a line from southern Louisiana to NE Yucatan and also in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Generally dry weather conditions dominate the basin, although some weakening thunderstorms are ongoing in the far W/NW Gulf waters along the coasts of TX and NE Mexico. For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain over the SE United States for the next several days, forcing E to SE winds across the Gulf. Expect moderate to fresh winds over the W Gulf, pulsing to strong each evening through Wed night offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Beginning on Thu, the pressure gradient will relax and tranquil marine conditions should prevail through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean, as the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches across the basin along 10N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also ongoing across the Windward Passage as well as the waters near Hispaniola and Cuba. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between a 1029 mb high near Bermuda and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades across the central to SW Caribbean, where seas are 8-10 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. The remainder of the Caribbean is seeing gentle to moderate trades and 2-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. Fresh to strong trades will also occur over the Gulf of Honduras today and tonight before weakening tomorrow. Large E to SE swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters today and tonight before diminishing tomorrow. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection NE of the Bahamas and scattered showers across the southern Bahamas are associated with a weak surface trough and upper level low in the region. To the east, a cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N43W and extends to 29N64W. Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds behind the front. Otherwise, subtropical ridging dominates, resulting in fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas prevailing across much of the Atlantic S of 23N. Areas N of 23N and away from any aforementioned features are seeing gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, an upper-level low will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms along a surface trough to the east of the Bahamas through Thu. SE winds will pulse fresh to strong north of Hispaniola afternoons into the evenings for the next several days. Elsewhere, surface ridging north of our waters should cause winds and seas to remain quiescent through the weekend. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC192219_C_KWBC_20260519222045_47448518-3656-TWDAT.txt ****0000004835**** AXNT20 KNHC 192219 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed May 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 60W, approaching the Windward Islands S of 16N, and is moving W near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted mainly behind the wave, S of 09N between 50W and 58W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, then runs southwestward to 05.5N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05.5N20W to the coast of Brazil near 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 00N to 06N between 10W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends westward into the northern Gulf states, to eastern Texas. The resultant pressure gradient across the basin is forcing moderate to fresh E to E-SE winds and moderate seas across all but the Florida coastal waters, but also includes the Florida Straits. Peak seas are to 7 ft across the offshore waters of south Texas and NE Mexico. Generally fair weather conditions dominate the basin, although some weakening thunderstorms are have shifted westward off of southwest and central Florida and into the local coastal waters. For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain over the SE United States for the next several days, forcing E to SE winds across the Gulf. Expect moderate to fresh winds over the W Gulf, pulsing to strong each evening through Wed night offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula. Beginning on Thu, the pressure gradient will relax and tranquil marine conditions should prevail through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean, as the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches across the basin along 10N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also ongoing across the Windward Passage as well as the southern coasts and adjacent waters of Cuba. The pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high near Bermuda and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades across the central to SW Caribbean, where seas are 8-12 ft, as indicated by recent satellite altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. The remainder of the NW Caribbean is seeing gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. Fresh to strong trades will also occur over the Gulf of Honduras today and tonight before weakening tomorrow. Large E to SE swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters tonight before subsiding tomorrow. Looking ahead, fresh to strong trades over the Gulf of Honduras are likely to return again starting on Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate convection NE of the Bahamas to 69W and across the southern Bahamas are associated with a weak surface trough and upper level low centered near 28.5N74W. To the east, a cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N39W and extends to 29N63W. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates moderate N to NE winds north the front, and moderate to fresh SW winds south of the front to 29N. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge dominates, resulting in fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas prevailing across much of the Atlantic S of 23N, where seas are 7 to 10 ft, as verified by recent satellite altimeter data. Areas N of 23N and away from any aforementioned features are seeing gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. Moderate to fresh NE trades and moderate seas prevail across most of the area between 20W and 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, an upper-level low will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms along a surface trough to the east of the Bahamas through Thu. SE winds will pulse fresh to strong north of Hispaniola during the afternoon and evening hours for the next several days. Elsewhere, surface ridging north of our waters should cause winds and seas to remain quiescent through the weekend. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################