--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC300546_C_KWBC_20260930054732_31523192-5103-TWDAT.txt ****0000005463**** AXNT20 KNHC 300546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 81W, south of 19N into western Panama, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the W Caribbean between 76W and 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N16W to 14N30W to 10N36W. The ITCZ extends from 10N36W to 07N47W to 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 18W and 27W, and from 06N to 18N between 27W and 42W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak surface ridge is building over the eastern half of the Gulf tonight. A mid to upper level trough E of 90W continues to support a trough that extends across the Florida Keys to the SE basin near 25N86W and its associated scattered showers E of 88W. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to locally strong SE winds over the SE waters S of the trough axis where the strongest convection has been present. The scatterometer data also show moderate to fresh SE winds over the NW basin and similar winds of gentle to moderate speeds in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, gentle to moderate return flow will prevail, except moderate to locally fresh over the western Gulf tonight. Winds will increase to moderate to locally fresh across the basin by Wed evening as the pressure gradient tightens. The gradient will weaken from west to east by the end of the week into the weekend as a front approaches the western portion, possibly moving into the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening winds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing winds and building seas are possibly behind the very slow moving front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active over the SW and NW Caribbean, associated with a mid to upper trough over the E Gulf of America extending a base over the W Caribbean. This shower activity is also associated with a tropical wave currently moving over the Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica offshore waters. A 1018 mb high SE of Bermuda and a bulding ridge over the E Gulf of America are supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, except for locally strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas basin-wide are mainly 4 to 6 ft, except to 7 ft in the SW basin and vicinity of the tropical wave. Seven ft seas are also offshore Colombia. For the forecast, the tropical wave and divergent flow aloft will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 75W over the next few days. High pressure north of the area will support pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the remainder of the week. Winds may weaken there by the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes slightly. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to moderate in the SW Caribbean and the Lee of Cuba. Moderate seas will dominate the basin, except slight in areas of weakest winds, and also locally rough off NW Colombia late tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers continue to affect the Great Bahama Bank and the Bahamas as well as the offshores N of 27N between the Florida coast and 70W. Farther east and to the SE of Bermuda, a 1018 mb high is centered near 29N60W, which is supporting light to gentle winds N of 25N. South of 25N, a tighter gradient of pressure due to the passage of a wave over the W Caribbean, is supporting moderate to fresh easterlies along with moderate seas to 6 ft. Over the central subtropical waters, the remnants of Tropical Depression Fay are centered near 23N48W with a 1012 mb low generating scattered showers from 21N to 24N between 47W and 51W. Finally, over the E subtropical waters, a weak stationary front extends from 30N19W to 27N29W to 26N38W. However, no shower activity is associated with it as well as the remnant low of Gonzalo located near 22N28W, which is anchored by a 1015 mb low near 22N28W. Otherwise, except fresh to strong winds within 75 nm N semicircle of the Fay remnant low, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist across the Bahamas offshores as broad troughing lingers in the region through midweek. High pressure SE of Bermuda will continue to build over the western Atlantic and support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N Wed through Fri. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin by the weekend as the gradient weakens slightly. Meanwhile, the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay currently east of the offshore waters may move west of 55W by Wed night. Slight to moderate seas will dominate through the forecast period. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC301018_C_KWBC_20260930101834_31523192-5123-TWDAT.txt ****0000005123**** AXNT20 KNHC 301018 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1005 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 13.5N17W and continues westward to 15N28W to 11N38W. The ITCZ extends from 11N38W to 06N48W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 19N and between 19W and 46W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A few showers and thunderstorms are occurring off Veracruz and the Florida Straits. High pressure over the eastern United States supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas over the western Gulf waters, while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern United States and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico support moderate to fresh easterly winds over the western Gulf waters. These winds will expand eastward across the basin by tonight as the pressure gradient tightens. The gradient will weaken from west to east by the end of the week into the weekend as a frontal boundary approaches the western Gulf waters, possibly moving into the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening winds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing winds and building seas are possible behind the very slow moving front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the convection already described in the Tropical Waves section above, strong storms are noted off Panama and NW Colombia, while only passing weak showers are seen in the central and eastern Caribbean. High pressure north of the area sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of the basin, increasing to strong speeds off northern Colombia and in the Gulfs of Honduras and Venezuela. Seas of 4-8 ft are evident across the Caribbean, except for slight seas in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. For the forecast, the tropical wave and divergent flow aloft will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 75W over the next few days. High pressure north of the area will support pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the remainder of the week. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in the rest of the basin. Later, a frontal boundary will slide into the Gulf of America and western Atlantic this weekend, resulting in a weakening pressure gradient across the Caribbean as the ridge retreats. Moderate to locally fresh winds will then dominate the basin into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A divergence flow aloft and plenty of tropical moisture continue to sustain strong showers and thunderstorms across the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Farther east, showers dot the waters between Bermuda and the Leeward Islands. High pressure dominates the SW North Atlantic, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft south of 25N and west of 55W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere west of 55W. The remnants of Fay continue moving westward near 23N51W and support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms within 90 nm of the center. Fresh to strong easterly winds are occurring in the northern semicircle of the low. Seas of 6-8 ft are found from 20N to 28N and between 44W and 55W. Meanwhile, moderate westerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted north of 29N and between 35W and 50W associated with Tropical Storm Hanna currently north of our waters. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlantic, weak high pressure is prevalent sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist across the region over the remainder of the week and into the weekend supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 25N. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, the remnants of Post- Tropical Cyclone Fay currently east of the offshore waters may move west of 55W by tonight. This system will continue to weaken and may dissipate late this week. Looking ahead, a frontal boundary may reach the waters off NE Florida early next week, resulting in an increase in winds and seas behind the boundary. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC301712_C_KWBC_20260930171258_4522426-5161-TWDAT.txt ****0000004835**** AXNT20 KNHC 301712 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A western Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 84W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed between 16N and 22N and W of 78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, extends to 16N30W, and then to 09N41W. The ITCZ extends from 09N41W to the coastal border of Guyana and Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N to 19N between 29W and 40W, as well as from 07N to 13N between 21W and 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Deep-layer troughing continues to support showers and thunderstorms across the Florida Straits and the far SE Gulf. High pressure over the eastern United States supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas over the western Gulf waters, while moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms will linger in the SE Gulf through at least this evening. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern United States and lower pressures in Texas and Mexico support moderate to fresh easterly winds over the western Gulf waters. These winds will expand eastward across the basin by tonight as the pressure gradient tightens. The gradient will weaken from west to east by the end of the week into the weekend as a frontal boundary approaches the western Gulf waters, possibly moving into the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening winds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing winds and building seas are possible behind the very slow moving front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on convection in the NW Caribbean. The East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the far SW Caribbean, and is supporting numerous strong convection S of 16N and W of 78W. High pressure north of the area sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of the basin, increasing to strong speeds off northern Colombia and along the northern end of the tropical wave analyzed along 84W. Seas of 4-8 ft are evident across the Caribbean, except for slight seas in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. For the forecast, a passing tropical wave and divergent flow aloft will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 75W over the next few days. High pressure north of the area will support pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in the rest of the basin. Later, a frontal boundary will slide into the Gulf of America and western Atlantic this weekend, resulting in a weakening pressure gradient across the Caribbean as the ridge retreats. Moderate to locally fresh winds will then dominate the basin into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Deep-layer troughing continues to support scattered moderate convection across the Bahamas and areas southward toward Cuba. To the east, convergent surface winds between a 1019 mb high SE of Bermuda and the remnants of Fay are supporting scattered moderate convection from 21N to 28N between 55W and 63W, as well as near the center of Fay's remnants. Outside of convection, gentle to moderate E to NE winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the Atlantic. Locally fresh winds are seen in showers N of a surface trough analyzed just E of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will persist across the region over the remainder of the week and into the weekend supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds south of 25N. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere. Meanwhile, the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay currently east of the offshore waters may move west of 55W by tonight. This system will continue to weaken and may dissipate late this week. Looking ahead, a frontal boundary may reach the waters off NE Florida early next week, resulting in an increase in winds and seas behind the boundary. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################