--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2025-11-26 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC260540_C_KWBC_20251126054141_16515500-424-TWDAT.txt ****0000006209**** AXNT20 KNHC 260540 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough stays mostly across central Africa. An ITCZ extends westward from near the coastal border of Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone to 08N25W to 06N43W. Widely scattered moderate convection is present near the ITCZ from 05N to 10N between the coast of Sierra Leone/Liberia and 28W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and western Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak cold front curves southwestward from near New Orleans, Louisiana to south of Houston near 28N94W, then continues as a stationary front to near the mouth of the Rio Grande, Texas. Widely scattered showers are seen up to 50 nm along either side of this boundary. A surface trough is triggering scattered moderate convection at the west-central Gulf. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge continues to dominate the rest of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are present off the Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Gulf. For the forecast, a stronger cold front will reach the northwestern Gulf early on Wed and steadily sweep across the Gulf. The cold front should extend from the western Florida peninsula to near Tampico tomorrow night, from the Florida Straits to near Veracruz Thu night, and then exit the Gulf by Fri morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front with conditions improving by Fri night. Fresh to strong return flow should set up in the northwestern Gulf Fri night and Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold front may emerge from the Texas coast Sat night and progress southeastward across the Gulf on Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are creating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Gulf of Honduras, and near the ABC Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale ENE to E winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are present at the south-central basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen across the north-central and the eastern portion of the western basin, including the Mona Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over NW Colombia will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean through early Fri. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt, and highest seas peaking near 12 ft are expected offshore Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along with moderate seas through early Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front will slowly enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong winds and rough seas through Fri night. The front may stall and wash out over the NW Caribbean by Sat with conditions gradually improving for the remainder of the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N46W to 27N63W, then continues westward as a stationary front to 28N71W. Widely scattered showers and seen near and up to 50 nm south of this features. Farther east, a surface trough is coupling with an upper-level trough to trigger scattered moderate convection north of 22N between 41W and 45W. Convergent trade winds are generating widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the southern Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the very beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are evident up to 80 nm along either side of the cold/stationary front, and also at the Bahama Bank near the Turks and Caicos Islands. Outside these two areas, gentle to moderate NE to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted north of 20N between 45W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. To the east, Gentle ENE to E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in moderate NE swell exist north of 20N between 35W and 45W. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are present. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the aforementioned cold/stationary front east of 65W will diminish on Wed, as the front dissipates. The Bermuda High to the north of the front is helping to sustain fresh to strong ENE winds in the approach to the Windward Passage tonight and Wed night before diminishing on Thu. On Wed evening, a cold front will emerge off the northeastern Florida coast, bringing with it fresh to strong NE winds behind the front. This cold front should extend from near Bermuda to the Florida Straits Thu night, from 31N62W to the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate by Sat night. A tightened pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing winds across the western Atlantic Sat, before gradually diminishing from west to east Sun. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC260943_C_KWBC_20251126094442_16515500-439-TWDAT.txt ****0000004676**** AXNT20 KNHC 260943 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough stays mostly across North Africa. An ITCZ extends westward from near the coast of Sierra Leone to 01N47W. Isolated moderate convection is present near the ITCZ from 05N-08N east of 30W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and western Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... As of 0900 UTC, a weak cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to 29N92W, where it transitions to a stationary front to S Texas. Prefrontal troughs are noted from 23N96W to 27N95W and 27N92W to 30N86W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 23N and west of 90W. Winds across the Gulf are moderate or weaker with seas 2-4 ft. A surface trough in the SW Gulf is associated with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection south of 20N between 92W-96W. For the forecast, a cold front will reach the NW Gulf later this morning and steadily sweep across the Gulf. The cold front should extend from near Tampa to Tampico tonight, from the Florida Straits to near Veracruz Thu night, and then exit the Gulf by Fri morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front with conditions improving by Fri night. Fresh to strong return flow should set up in the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold front may emerge from the Texas coast Sat night and progress southeastward across the W Gulf on Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressures over NW Colombia/SW Caribbean Sea is forcing fresh to strong trades with locally near gale and seas of 8-11 ft across most of the Caribbean. Trades in the E and NW Caribbean are moderate to fresh with seas 4-7 ft. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and western Panama. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient will sustain fresh to strong trades with locally near gale through Fri morning before diminishing on Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh trades through early Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front will slowly enter the NW Caribbean on Fri afternoon, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front should stall and wash out over the NW Caribbean on Sat with conditions gradually improving during the remainder of the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak frontal boundary extends from 28N55W to 28N70W with fresh NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft along the front east of 65W. A prefrontal trough is present from 22N47W to 31N41W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 NM of the trough axis. The Bermuda High to the north of the front is helping to sustain fresh to strong ENE winds and 5-7 ft seas in the approach to the Windward Passage. Farther east, NE winds are fresh to strong with seas 6-8 ft within 60 NM of the coast of Morocco. Elsewhere, winds are moderate of weaker with seas 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the front east of 65W will diminish later today, as the front dissipates. The Bermuda High to the north of the front is helping to sustain fresh to strong ENE winds in the approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before diminishing on Thu. Tonight, a new cold front will emerge off of the NE Florida coast, bringing with it fresh to strong N to NE winds behind the front. The cold front should extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits Thu night, from 31N63W to the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipating from 31N57W to the central Bahamas by Sat night. A tightened pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, gradually diminishing from west to east Sun. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################