--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-23 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC230614_C_KWBC_20260723061527_9109880-8996-TWDAT.txt ****0000006759**** AXNT20 KNHC 230614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Jul 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Bertha is centered near 29.4N 91.1W at 23/0300 UTC or 70 nm SW of New Orleans Louisiana, moving W at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring SW of the center of Bertha, particularly N of 24N west of 90W. On the forecast track, the center of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts through Thursday afternoon, and then move farther inland into Texas Thursday evening and Thursday night. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so, and Bertha is forecast to maintain tropical storm intensity up until it reaches the upper Texas coast on Thursday. Bertha is expected to dissipate inland over Texas by Thursday night or Friday. Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Bertha NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave emerged off the west coast of Africa tonight. Its axis is near 18W based on satellite imagery and wave diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection extends from 06N to 20N between the coast of W Africa and 20W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 07N to 21N with axis near 41W, moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is confined to the monsoon/ITCZ region from 05N to 13N between 32W and 48W. A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles extending from 08N to 21N and with axis near 53W, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Senegal at 13N17W and extends southwestward to 09N29W. The ITCZ starts at 08N42W and continues westward to 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 22W and 31W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Tropical Storm Bertha is along the Louisiana coast near 29.4N 91.1W, or about 35 nm southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana at 11 PM EDT. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Please refer to the Special Features section for further details on Tropical Storm Bertha. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Bertha will move to near 29.2N 92.8W Thu morning, move inland to near 29.1N 95.6W Thu evening, then weaken to a remnant low near 29.0N 98.3W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri evening. In the wake of Bertha, a high pressure center will become established over the NE Gulf through Fri before it shifts to the central Gulf afterward. The high pressure will provide for a light to gentle wind flow across the basin, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula and near NE Mexico and the Texas coast through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The usual north-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean although reduced due to a surface trough located E of the Bahamas and extending into Hispaniola continue to support fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 5 to 8 ft with these winds. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and E Caribbean along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, trades are moderate or weaker with slight seas. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage will diminish Thu. Fresh winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras tonight, then at fresh to strong speeds at night beginning Sat. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near 28N68W to just east of the Turks and Caicos. A second surface trough is to the east extending from 22N60W to 28N57W. Both troughs are generating scattered showers from 21N to 30N between 55W and 75W. Aside from the rain, the troughs are freshening the winds in the same region E of the Bahamas. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Its associated ridge combined with lower pressures over NW Africa is promoting fresh to strong northerly winds between the Canary Islands and downwind to about 29N. Seas with these winds are moderate to rough. In addition, the moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure with the ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting only moderate to locally fresh trades and seas 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will continue westward reaching the Bahamas Thu afternoon and to central and South Florida Fri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough. Fresh trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through Sat night. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the waters east of northern Florida Sat night through Sun night, preceded by mostly fresh southwest winds north of about 29N and east of 75W. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC231028_C_KWBC_20260723102834_32440682-6039-TWDAT.txt ****0000007884**** AXNT20 KNHC 231028 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jul 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Bertha is centered near 29.0N 92.2W at 23/0900 UTC or 80 nm SE of Lake Charles Louisiana, moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are around 12 ft. Bertha remains a sheared system. Its center re-formed offshore the coast of southern Louisiana during the overnight hours. A large area of numerous to strong convection is evident over the NW Gulf from 26N to 29N between 92W and the Texas coast, and extending just inland the coast. Bertha is forecast to maintain a general westward or west-northwestward motion through tonight, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest on Fri. On this forecast track, the center of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts through this afternoon, and then move farther inland into Texas this evening and tonight. Bertha is forecast to maintain tropical storm intensity up until it reaches the upper Texas coast later today, and is expected to dissipate inland over Texas by tonight or Fri. Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals to 6 inches through tonight along Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas. Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the northern Gulf Coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Bertha NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W moving westward at about 10 kt. Isolated showers are near the southern portion of the wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W from 0N to 22N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern portion of the wave near the ITCZ. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles extending along 55W from 08N to 23N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No deep convection is noted with this wave, only isolated showers near its southern portion. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Senegal at 13N17W and extends southwestward to 10N21W and westward to 10N30W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N47W and to inland South America at 07N61W. Aside from the convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 36W-40W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 36W-40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 44W-48W, within 60 nm of the trough between 23W-26W and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 48W-52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Tropical Storm Bertha south of the Louisiana coast near 29.0N 92.2W, or about 95 nm southwest of New Orleans, Louisiana at 5 AM EDT. It is moving west at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Please refer to the Special Features section for further details on Tropical Storm Bertha. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail for the next few days as high pressure becomes established over the NE Gulf. For the forecast, Bertha will move to near 29.3N 94.1W this afternoon, then move inland Texas and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.0N 97.0W late tonight, weaken further to a remnant low near 28.5N 100.1W Fri afternoon and dissipate Sat morning. In the wake of Bertha, a high pressure center will become established over the NE Gulf through Fri, then shift to the central Gulf. The high pressure will provide for a light to gentle wind flow across the basin, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula and near NE Mexico and the Texas coast through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The usual north-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean, although reduced due to a surface trough that is located east of the Bahamas and extends into the Windward Passage, continue to support fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 5 to 8 ft with these winds. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and over the eastern Caribbean along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, trades are moderate or weaker with slight seas. For the forecast, the Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh NE winds in the Windward Passage will diminish today. Fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish this morning, then pulse at fresh to strong speeds at night beginning on Sat. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near 29N70W to the southeastern Bahamas and to the Windward Passage. A second surface trough is to the east extends from 29N59W to 23N62W. Both of these features are accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms from 21N to 30N between 55W and 75W. Aside from described shower and thunderstorm activity, the gradient between the troughs and high pressure to the north and northeast is sustaining fresh trades over the waters south of about 23N and east of 75W. A weak low pressure of 1022 mb is near 32N36W, with a trough to 29N42W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within 30 to 60 nm of the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Its associated ridge combined with lower pressures over NW Africa is promoting fresh to strong northerly winds between the Canary Islands and downwind to about 29N. Seas with these winds are moderate to rough. In addition, the moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated to the ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting only moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will continues eastward to central and South Florida Fri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough. Fresh trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through Sat night. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the waters east of northern Florida Sat night through Sun night, preceded by fresh to strong southwest winds north of about 28N and east of 75W. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC231706_C_KWBC_20260723170648_49676782-9039-TWDAT.txt ****0000005941**** AXNT20 KNHC 231706 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jul 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Storm Bertha is centered near 29.6N 93.2W at 23/1500 UTC or 30 nm S of Lake Charles Louisiana, moving W at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection prevails N of 25N and W of 93W. Bertha is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals to 6 inches through Thursday night along Texas Gulf Coast and South Texas. This rainfall may produce isolated flash flooding, especially in urban areas. Sreas of 8 to 14 kt are expected N of 27N betwen 88W and 93W. Swells generated by Bertha will continue spreading westward along the northern and northwestern Gulf Coast. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. On the forecast track, the center of Bertha will move near or along the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts during the next several hours, and then move inland over Texas this evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Bertha NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 21W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails S of 10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W from 0N to 22N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles extending along 57W from 08N to 23N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No deep convection is noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W to 11N34W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 11N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ and W of 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Refer to the section above for details on T.S. Bertha. Elsewhere outside of Bertha, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail for the next few days as high pressure becomes established over the NE Gulf. For the forecast, Bertha will move inland to 29.7N 95.2W this evening, weaken to a remnant low and dissipate Fri evening. In the wake of Bertha, a high pressure center will become established over the NE Gulf through Fri, then shift to the central Gulf. The high pressure will provide for a light to gentle wind flow across the basin, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula and near NE Mexico and the Texas coast through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The usual north-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean, although reduced due to a surface trough that is located east of the Bahamas and extends into the Windward Passage, continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and over the eastern Caribbean along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, trades are moderate or weaker with slight seas. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night beginning on Sat. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves in the basin. A surface trough extends from near 29N72W to the southeastern Bahamas and to the Windward Passage. A second surface trough is to the east extends from 28N61W to 24N62W. Both of these features are accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly W of 57W. The pressure gradient between the troughs and high pressure to the north is sustaining fresh trades over the waters south of about 23N and east of 75W. To the E, a low pressure of 1022 mb is near 32N36W, with a trough to 29N37W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 30 to 60 nm of the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Fresh to strong northerly winds between the Canary Islands and downwind to about 29N. Seas with these winds are peaking to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast west of 55W, the westward trough will continue westward to central and South Florida Fri. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany the trough. Fresh trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through Sat night. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. A cold front will approach the waters east of northern Florida Sat night through Sun night, preceded by fresh to strong southwest winds north of about 28N and east of 75W. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################