--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-27 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC270601_C_KWBC_20260627060155_9109880-6952-TWDAT.txt ****0000006706**** AXNT20 KNHC 270601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Jun 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure over Colombia will lead to the trade winds offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to peak at gale-force tonight through early Sat morning, and again Sat night into Sun morning. These winds are forecast to produce seas in the range of 12 to 15 ft north of Colombia. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has is near 34W from 11N southwestward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 10N between 30W and 41W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 18N southwestward, and moving westward near 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from the coast of Suriname to 13N between 50W and 60W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W from 19N southward across Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. It seems to be enhancing scattered moderate convection near the East Pacific monsoon trough near Costa Rica and western Panama. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near Dakar, then extends southwestward to 05N30W. An ITCZ continues from 05N30W to 03N40W and to 03N34W, then resumes from 03N37W to just north of the Amazon River Delta at 02N49W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring south of the monsoon trough near the coast of Guinea, Guinea Bissau and Sierra Leone. Widely scattered convection is noted up to 95 nm along either side of the second ITCZ segment. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The northern tip of an East Pacific tropical wave is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bay of Campeche. Convergent surface winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms near the Florida Keys. Otherwise, a surface ridge running westward from a 1020 mb high just offshore central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico continues to dominate much of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are present at the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted at the north-central and southeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the ridge will persist over the Gulf region through midweek next week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds across the northwestern Gulf through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the northeast Gulf Mon night and Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about a gale warning. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the Atlantic and lower pressure at northern Colombia is sustaining strong to near-gale ENE winds and 11 to 13 seas at the south- central basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft dominate the north-central and part of the southwestern basin. Fresh to strong easterly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are found at the Gulf of Honduras and near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient is going to maintain fresh to strong trades and rough to locally very rough seas into midweek next week. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas will briefly affect the Windward Passage late Sat afternoon into early Sun. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across the remainder of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low southeast of Bermuda near 29N60W is triggering scattered moderate convection near the northern portion of its associated trough, from 25N to 30N between 54W and 64W. Farther southeast, divergent flow aloft is generating similar convection from 22N to 26N between 46W and 52W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A broad subtropical ridge extending west-southwestward from a 1030 mb high near 34N46W across 31N65W to beyond central Florida is supporting gentle to moderate ENE to E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft, north of 27N and west of 35W. Farther south from 08N to 27N and west of 35W, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will persist across the western Atlantic through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, each late afternoon and night through Sat night. A nearly north-to-south aligned surface trough located near 62W will shift westward across the region through Sun, reaching near 70W by Sun morning while dissipating. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC270959_C_KWBC_20260627095957_9109880-6963-TWDAT.txt ****0000005404**** AXNT20 KNHC 270959 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Jun 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure over Colombia will lead to the trade winds offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to peak at gale-force this morning, and again tonight into Sun morning. These winds are forecast to produce seas in the range of 12 to 15 ft north of Colombia. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has is near 36W from 11N southwestward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 10N between 27W and 45W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 54W, south of 20N, and moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 14N between 50W and 62W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is enhancing the shower activity in Central America and along the eastern Pacific coast. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 09N25W to 08N34W and then from 03N40W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring east of 18W and north of 04N. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection continues to affect the Bay of Campeche as a tropical wave passes by. A weak high pressure system over the eastern Gulf waters supports gentle to moderate SE-S winds and seas of 3-5 ft, west of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak ridge will persist over the Gulf region through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly and moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds across the northwestern Gulf through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the northeast Gulf Mon night and Tue and gradually dissipate. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning off Colombia. Outside of the Gale Warning area, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic is forcing fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas over much of the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a persistent subtropical ridge centered between the Azores and Bermuda will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale- force offshore of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime and early morning hours today and tonight. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas will briefly affect the Windward Passage late this afternoon into early Sun. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast across the remainder of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A couple of surface troughs located along 64W and 54W are producing scattered showers north of 22N and between 45W and 65W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted off SE Florida and the NW Bahamas. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a persistent subtropical ridge will dominate the forecast area through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected offshore Hispaniola expected this afternoon and tonight. A nearly north-to- south aligned surface trough located near 64W will shift westward across the region through Sun, reaching near 70W by Sun morning while dissipating. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night and gradually dissipate. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################