--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC070506_C_KWBC_20260807050659_49676782-365-TWDAT.txt ****0000005669**** AXNT20 KNHC 070506 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Aug 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Mon night. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speed at night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times this weekend with the increase in wind speed. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 21W south 20N. Numerous moderate convection is noted E of 20W. A second tropical wave is along 40W S of 20N, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. A third tropical wave is along 52W S of 20N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W to 12N38W. The ITCZ continues from 10N41W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, limited convective activity is noted elsewhere. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak ridging extends from the western Atlantic to the west-central Gulf. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the Gulf. Seas are 2-4 ft over the southwest Gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are moving off the Florida coast north of Tampa Bay into the far northeast Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active elsewhere north of the Yucatan Channel, and off the coast of Veracruz. For the forecast, surface ridging will dominate across most of the Gulf through late Tue, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are forecast for this portion of the basin through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high located near Bermuda and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere over the E Caribbean, the Gulf of Honduras and in the lee side of Cuba. Seas are generally moderate. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active from Jamaica to Grand Cayman to the coast of Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through Tue night. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near-gale speed and to gale-force speed at night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times this weekend with the increase in wind speed. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period, except over the weekend when winds may pulse to strong speed. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh easterlies will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off the central Bahamas, and along a surface trough reaching from north of the central Bahamas southward toward central Cuba. Farther north, 1025 mb high pressure is centered near Bermuda. Fresh to strong E winds prevail over the northern end of the trough from 25N to 29N between 70W and 77W. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed rough seas to 9 ft in this area as well. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere west of 65W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted across the Canary Islands and off Western Sahara. Gentle to moderate easterly flow and 4-6 ft seas are noted over the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will continue to support shower and thunderstorm activity across the Florida seaboard and offshores tonight into Fri morning before shifting west of the area Fri night into early Sat. Aside from the shower activity, the surface trough will bring fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas across the Bahamas offshores through tonight. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approaches of the Windward Passage through the period, reaching strong speeds Sun night, Mon night, and Tue night as the Bermuda High shifts southward. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC070954_C_KWBC_20260807095502_49676782-384-TWDAT.txt ****0000005825**** AXNT20 KNHC 070954 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Aug 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Tue night. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speed at night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times this weekend with the increase in wind speed. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is E of the Cape Verde Islands with axis near 22W, extending from 05N to 19N, and moving west at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 06N to 20N between 11W and 22W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 41W, extending from 05N to 19N, and moving west at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 53W, extending from 05N to 20N, and moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 07N to 12N between 48W and 58W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W to 12N38W. The ITCZ continues from 10N41W to 06N57W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, limited convective activity is noted elsewhere. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak ridging extends from the southwestern Atlantic to the western Gulf. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the Gulf and slight seas. In the Bay of Campeche, a surface trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds as well as scattered showers. Otherwise, scattered showers associated with a surface trough moving across the northern Bahamas are reaching the SE Gulf. For the forecast, surface ridging from the Bermuda High will dominate across most of the Gulf through late Tue, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are forecast for this portion of the basin through Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high located NW of Bermuda, and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere over the SW and E Caribbean with moderate seas. Otherwise, an upper-level low centered between Jamaica and Haiti is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Windward Passage and the lee side of Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through Tue night. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speed at night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times this weekend with the increase in wind speed. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period, except over the weekend when winds may pulse to strong speed. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh easterlies will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the northern Bahamas and adjacent waters due to a westward moving surface trough. Aside from the shower activity, the trough is bringing moderate to fresh E to SE winds to the Bahamas offshores along with moderate to locally rough seas. Surface ridging dominate the remainder subtropical Atlantic waters, thus providing moderate or weaker winds between 30W and 65W. East of 30W, fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate seas prevail across the Canary Islands and off Western Sahara. For the forecast west of 55W, a westward moving surface trough over the northern Bahamas offshores will support showers and thunderstorms activity across the Florida seaboard and offshores through this morning before shifting west of the area tonight into early Sat. Aside from the shower activity, the surface trough will bring fresh winds and moderate to rough seas across the Bahamas offshores through this afternoon. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approaches of the Windward Passage through the period, reaching strong speeds Sun night, Mon night, and Tue night as the Bermuda High shifts southward. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC071624_C_KWBC_20260807162533_47448518-357-TWDAT.txt ****0000006936**** AXNT20 KNHC 071624 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Aug 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speeds tonight and Saturday night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times coinciding with the periods of gale-force winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the Cape Verde Islands. Its axis is along 24W, extending from 06N to 19N, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N e of 18W to the coast of W Africa. Similar convective activity is from 09N to 14N between 24W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is along the wave axis. A tropical wave is near 41W, and extends from 05N to 19N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles with axis near 56W, extending from 05N to 20N, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ahead of the wave axis from 08N to 10N between 56W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues westward to near 11N40W. The ITCZ extends continues from 10N43W to NE Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, limited convective activity is noted elsewhere. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure of 1026 mb located NW of Bermuda near 33N68W extends a ridge westward across Florida into the Gulf region. Under this weather pattern, a gentle to locally moderate wind flow prevail. Slight to moderate seas are noted, with the highest seas in the central Bay of Campeche. Showers and thunderstorms continue to flare-up over parts of Florida, the Straits of Florida and the E Gulf, mainly E of 87W. Similar convective activity is noted in the Veracruz area. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are observed elsewhere. An upper-level low, currently located over the western Gulf, is helping to induce convection over most of the basin. For the forecast, surface ridging from the Bermuda High will dominate across most of the Gulf through late Tue, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N along with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each night as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb high pressure located NW of Bermuda near 33N68W and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades are over the E Caribbean while gentle to locally moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are generally moderate with these latter winds. An upper-level low spinning just south of Haiti and Jamaica is supporting scattered showers and tstms between Cuba and Jamaica as well as over the Cayman Islands and surrounding waters. Showers and thunderstorms are also noted in the SW Caribbean offshore western Panama and Costa Rica. Trade wind showers dominate the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week. Over the weekend, the ridge N of the region will shift southward, acting to increase the pressure gradient and accelerating the winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela to near gale-force speed and to gale-force speeds tonight and Saturday night. Rough seas will prevail there, building to very rough at times coinciding with the periods of gale-force winds. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period, except over the weekend when winds may pulse to strong speed. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh easterlies will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed over the western Atlantic, and runs from 29N78W to the coast of central Cuba near 23N80W. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are associated with this trough covering the waters N of 23N and W of 70W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are on either side of the trough axis. This feature will shift westward across Florida today, ushering in deep tropical moisture. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of high pressure, with the main center of 1026 mb situated NW of Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa supports moderate to fresh winds N of 27N E of 20W, including the Canary Islands, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail, with locally fresh trades E of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, a westward moving surface trough over the northern Bahamas offshores will support showers and thunderstorm activity across the Florida seaboard and offshores through this morning before shifting west of the area tonight into early Sat. Aside from the shower activity, the surface trough will bring fresh winds and moderate seas across the Bahamas offshores through this afternoon. Seas may be locally rough in areas of stronger convection. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approaches of the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening as the Bermuda High shifts southward. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################