--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC250437_C_KWBC_20260925043746_4522426-4606-TWDAT.txt ****0000010075**** AXNT20 KNHC 250437 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 42.3W at 0300 UTC, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 13 ft are occurring within 75 nm across the NW semicircle. Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Some strengthening is expected overnight before weakening likely commences by Fri afternoon or evening. A generally westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Invest AL90 across the far eastern Atlantic, has been named Tropical Storm Gonzalo, forming to the south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gonzalo is centered near 13.2N 22.1W at 0300 UTC, moving N-NW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gust to 50 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed that the center still remains somewhat elongated but with a large fetch of 30-40 kt easterly winds across the northern semicircle. Peak seas are to 14 ft across this area. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection prevails across the SE semicircle of Gonzalo from 08N to 17N between 16W and 25W. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued for the Cabo Verde Islands. Gonzalo is expected to move north-northwestward during the next couple of days, passing near or over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. After about 24 hours, moderate to strong vertical wind shear and cooling SSTs are expected to cause a gradual weakening trend. Gonzalo is expected to become a post tropical remnant low to the north of the Cabo Verdes by 72 hours and meander there for a few days as steering currents become very weak. Heavy rains from Gonzalo could affect the eastern islands of Cabo Verde and the western coast of Africa between Guinea-Bissau to Senegal today through Saturday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends from the eastern Gulf of America across the Yucatan Peninsula and NW Caribbean, while relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. An elongated low level trough will prevail across this area during the next several days, and aid in funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Convection across the area has diminished in the past few hours, with scattered moderate isolated strong showers and thunderstorms extending from the Gulf of Honduras northeastward across the Cayman Islands, across western Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Heavy rainfall across these regions will create the possibility of life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 51W-52W, S of 14W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted behind the wave, from 10N to 13.5N between 46W and 51W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 13N into central Colombia, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is depicted over water in association with this wave, while numerous moderate to strong convection is observed over much of northern Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania and meanders west the southwestward to low pressure near 13N22W, which has since become T.S. Gonzalo, then extends southwest to 10N25W to near 10N48W. There is no well defined ITCZ further west at this time. Scattered moderate convection is south of the monsoon trough from 07N to 09.5N between 25W and 32W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from SW Florida near Marco Islands to the central Texas coast, but has recently begun to drift southward to the E of 90W. Widely scattered showers are occurring along the from between 86W and 90W. A more significant cold front has moved into the NE Gulf, and extends from northern Tampa Bay to near Mobile Bay. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are found north of the stationary front, while fresh NE winds are spilling across the Florida Bid Bend behind the cold front. Seas of 3 to 4 ft are found within 120 nm N of the stationary boundary, and across the Big Bend. To the south, gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas dominate, except for moderate N to NE winds along the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, where scattered thunderstorms have entered the eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, a cold front extending from Mobile Bay to the Tampa Bay area will move southwestward and gradually merge with a weakening stationary front across the central Gulf, then progress across the E Gulf tonight and Fri, then stall over the Straits of Florida Sat before weakening. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the front through Fri night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for information on upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean that is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Central America into the weekend. At the surface, very weak high pressure is across the western Atlantic between the Bahamas and 60W. The resultant pressure gradient across the Caribbean is yielding moderate to fresh trades across the south-central basin S of 15N and between 63W and 73W. Seas in these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Over the eastern Caribbean moderate winds prevail with 3 to 4 ft seas, Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail, except moderate seas across the SW. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generate moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the next several days. An upper- level trough will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for the next couple of days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo. A mid to upper-level trough extending from the coasts of the Carolinas southwestward across the eastern Gulf of America has allowed for two frontal systems to move into the area NW Atlantic waters, and also supports scattered showers and thunderstorms from the Straits of Florida, across the Bahamas and northeastward towards Bermuda. A stationary front extends from the Storm-force low center offshore of Cape Hatteras southwestward through 31N73W to south Florida, followed by a reinforcing cold front across the NW waters along 31N78W to near Cape Canaveral. Strong N to NE winds 20-30 kt are filling into the area waters behind the cold front, and producing building N-NE swell moving into the waters N of the Bahamas and W of 65W. Local buoys show seas of 6 ft as far south as Vero Beach, Florida increasing to 13 ft near 30N80W. Ahead of these fronts, a 1010 mb low center is located near 27.5N76W. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail across the area E of this low to 68W, and become fresh SW winds ahead of the stationary front and N of 30N. Seas across the area are 4 to 8 ft in building N swell. Another upper-level low is drifting westward near 25N54W. This feature is interacting with a surface trough resulting in an area of scattered moderate convection from 21N to 27N between 51W and 60W. Outside of this convection, a weak pressure gradient continues across much of the Atlantic, as high pressure remains centered across the far NE Atlantic offshore of Europe, and drapes over T.S. Fay. This pattern is sustaining gentle to moderate trades S of 20N and variable light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft elsewhere W of 30W. However, swell generated from Tropical Storm Fay is producing seas of 6 to 12 ft N of 28N between 40W and 45W. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front from near 31N73W to south Florida will gradually merge with the cold front Fri and then shift southeastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and large N-NE swell will follow the front through Fri, before beginning to subside Sat through Sun. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC251059_C_KWBC_20260925105950_4522426-4629-TWDAT.txt ****0000007162**** AXNT20 KNHC 251059 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 29.8N 42.8W at 25/0900 UTC or 930 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas to 17 ft are occurring within 45 nm across the N semicircle. Numerous moderate convection is noted from 28N to 31N between 39W and 46W. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next 12 hours. Thereafter, gradual weakening is expected through the weekend. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 14.2N 22.4W at 25/0900 UTC or 120 nm ESE of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 10N to 23N between 17W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 30N between 17W and 29W. On the forecast track, the center will pass near or over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. Some strengthening is possible today, with a gradual weakening trend forecast to begin this weekend. Swells generated by the storm are expected to affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A mid to upper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. This pattern will aid in funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern and eastern Belize, as well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Currently, scattered moderate isolated strong showers and thunderstorms are in the Gulf of Honduras, as well as across the offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica. Heavy rainfall across these regions will create the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 55W, from 07N to 16N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with it at the time. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean along 77W, south of 13N into central Colombia, moving westward at 15 kt. Heavy showers and tstms are occurring over the Panama and Costa Rica offshore waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N25W to 08N37W to 11N48W. There is no well defined ITCZ further west at this time. See T.S. Gonzalo in the Special Features section for information on convection. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from SE Louisiana to Cape Coral, FL. Ahead of this front, a weakening cold front extends from the Straits of Florida NW to Houston, Texas while a surface trough and a low are over the E Bay of Campeche, generating some scattered showers. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are in the wake or behind these frontal boundaries while seas are slight to moderate. For the forecast, the cold front will merge with a weakening cold front over the SE Gulf later today and then move E of the Gulf tonight into Sat. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the front through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for information on upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean that is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Central America into the weekend. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the south-central basin along with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient due to the passage of a frontal boundary N of the area will support moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. A middle to upper-level trough over the NW Caribbean will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over that region through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo. A dissiapting stationary front extends from near 31N72W to the Straits of Florida. A reinforcing cold front is across the NW waters from 31N75W to near Stuart, Florida. Heavy showers and tstms are ahead of these boundaries and a 1011 mb low centered near 28N75W. These showers extends as far as 66W, including the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches to the Windward Passage. A broad surface ridge covers the remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough is near the SW periphery of the ridge, extending from 26N54W to 22N60W, which is generating scattered showers from 21N to 28N between 51W and 59W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds follow the frontal boundaries while mainly moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of the boundaries to 63W. Rough seas to 13 ft are behind the front. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere in the subtropical waters, except in the vicinity of Fay. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will merge with a trailing cold front and then shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat night before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and increasing seas will follow the front through today, before decreasing on Sat. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC251555_C_KWBC_20260925155552_4522426-4653-TWDAT.txt ****0000007567**** AXNT20 KNHC 251555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 30.1N 42.5W at 25/1500 UTC or 900 nm WSW of the Azores, moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas to 18 ft are occurring within 60 NM nm across the N semicircle. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 29N-31N between 40W-44W. A gradual turn to the west-southwest then southwest at a slower forward speed is expected over the next few of days. Some slight strengthening is possible over the next few hours. Gradual weakening, however, is still expected through the weekend. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 14.7N 22.6W at 25/1200 UTC or 100 nm E of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft and a 0900 UTC altimeter pass indicated seas to 15 ft between and just to the north of the eastern Cabo Verde Islands. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 10N-21N between 17W-22W. The NNW motion is expected to continue over the next few days, with a slower forward speed this weekend. On the forecast track, the center will pass near or over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands later today and tonight. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin tonight and continue through the weekend. Swells generated b y the storm are expected to affect the Cabo Verde Islands through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Fay and Gonzalo NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Very Large NE Swell: A cold front extends from 31N72W across the N Bahamas and to the Florida Straits. Seas are 8 to 13 ft northwest of a line from 31N70W to the N Bahamas and the Florida peninsula north of 26N. The highest seas of 12-13 ft are occurring north of 30N between 76W-80W as well as up to 12 ft are over the Gulf Stream within 60 NM of the Florida peninsula north of 28N. Buoy 41010 at 28.9N 78.5W 120 NM east of Cape Canaveral is showing 11 ft seas as of 1520 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front through Sat morning, before starting to decrease. Heavy Rainfall in Central America and Southern Mexico: A mid to upper-level trough is over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures and abundant low level moisture are present. This pattern will aid in funneling enhanced tropical moisture across Central America and the western Caribbean, supporting periods of heavy rainfall through Sat. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, and El Salvador. Heavy rainfall across these regions will create the possibility of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/international/intl2.sthml for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 55W, from 07N to 16N, moving west at 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with it at the time. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean along 77W, south of 13N into central Colombia, moving westward at 15-20 kt. There is no significant convection associated with it at the time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Senegal near 16N17W through Tropical Storm Gonzalo to 08N34W. The ITCZ begins at 08N134W to 09N56W. See T.S. Gonzalo in the Special Features section for information on convection. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak cold front extends from the Florida Straits to 27N89W, where it becomes stationary to the E Texas coast. Winds across the Gulf are gentle to moderate with seas 2-4 ft. No significant deep convection is occurring this morning over the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will move E of the Gulf tonight into Sat. Moderate to locally fresh winds will follow the front through tonight. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for information on upper-level low pressure across the far western Caribbean that is expected to produce areas of heavy rainfall over portions of Central America through tomorrow. The cold front north of the Caribbean has reduced the pressure gradient across the Caribbean with trades only gentle to moderate locally fresh. Seas are 2-5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the SW Caribbean south of 11N due to the monsoon trough from the northeast Pacific. For the forecast, a weak pressure will support moderate to fresh trades over the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will be over the NW Caribbean with moderate seas elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Fay and Tropical Storm Gonzalo. A cold front extends from 31N72W across the N Bahamas and to the Florida Straits. Winds ahead of the front north of 26N are SW fresh to locally strong, while winds behind the front north of 27N are N fresh to locally strong. Seas are 8 to 13 ft northwest of a line from 31N70W to the N Bahamas and the Florida peninsula north of 26N. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring within 300 NM east of the front north of 23N. There also is a surface trough extending from 24N64W to 25N55W with scattered moderate convection occurring from 22N-25N between 55W-60W. The weak pressure gradient between ridging with the Bermuda-Azores High well north of our waters to lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing only gentle to moderate trades over the tropical and subtropical north Atlantic. Seas away from the two tropical storms and cold front are 3-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near Bermuda to near central Cuba Sat night before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front through Sat morning, before starting to decrease. $$ Landsea/Levine ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################