--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2024-10-30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC300415_C_KWBC_20241030041612_37748954-3651-TWDAT.txt ****0000005024**** AXNT20 KNHC 300415 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Oct 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W, south of 14N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are present near the trough axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring in the NW and SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 06N25W and to a 1012 mb low pres near 13N42W and to 14N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 03N to 13N and east of 43W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1036 mb high pressure system near Nova Scotia extends southwestward to the Gulf of Mexico, supporting fresh to strong easterly winds over much of the basin. However, moderate or weaker winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 5-8 ft are found across much of the Gulf, except 2-5 ft in the SW Gulf waters. A surface trough in the eastern Bay of Campeche and divergence aloft is producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. For the forecast, a strong high pressure north of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the Gulf region through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida through early Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a strong subtropical ridge well north of the Greater Antilles and lower pressures in the deep tropics continues to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds across much of the central and NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 2-5 ft are present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. In addition to the convection associated with the two tropical waves as described above, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are impacting the waters north of 16N partially due to the remnants of a stalled frontal boundary, which recently dissipated. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend while the system drifts generally northward over the west-central Caribbean Sea. In the meantime, strong high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola, including the Mona Passage, most of the week. Seas generated by the strong winds will reach the NE Caribbean passages by Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N42W and continues to a 1008 mb low pres near 27N48W and a cold front extends from the aforementioned low pres to the northern Leeward Islands. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen on satellite imagery north of 22N and between 38W and 47W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to near gale- force southerly winds ahead of the frontal boundary to 36W and north of 24N. Gale-force winds are occurring in the area of the strongest convection. In the rest of the SW North Atlantic, a 1036 mb high pressure system near Nova Scotia is forcing fresh to near gale-force anticyclonic winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, west of the frontal boundary. These winds are producing a large area of swell sustaining seas of 8-13 ft north of 23N and west of 37W. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending from the Azores High covers the rest of the tropical Atlantic waters east of the low and front, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a strong high pressure centered N of the area dominates the forecast waters. This system will continue to support an extended period of strong winds and rough to very rough seas over the Western Atlantic through at least Fri. Peak seas of 14 or 15 ft are expected E of the Bahamas through the upcoming weekend. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################