---------------------------------------------------------------------------

         TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES        

T1T2: AX
A1A2: NT

Date: 2026-07-15

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC150410_C_KWBC_20260715041048_32440682-5288-TWDAT.txt

****0000005062****
AXNT20 KNHC 150410

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Wed Jul 15 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0355 UTC.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 18N, 

moving westward at 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong

convection is noted from 04N to 15N and east of 27W.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of

Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 09N35W. The

ITCZ extends from 09N35W to 04N52W. See the Tropical Waves section

for details on the convection near these features.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A stalled frontal boundary draped across the southern and 

southeastern United States, from eastern Texas to off the Georgia

coast. An east to west upper trough across this same area is 

combining with plenty of low level moisture and diurnal heating to

support scattered moderate isolated strong convection across much

of the northern Gulf waters north of 25N. The strongest convection

is found in the NE Gulf waters. Similar storms are see in the

eastern Bay of Campeche.



Outside of convection, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida 

and into the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to 

fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas off Yucatan and in the Bay of 

Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas 

prevail.



For the forecast, a stationary front will prevail just N of the 

area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern 

Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, 

and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to 

strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula 

each night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



The tight pressure gradient between the persistent subtropical 

Atlantic ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in northern

South America continue to support strong to near gale-force 

easterly winds and rough locally rough seas in the south-central 

Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up

to 32 kt. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas 

are occurring in the remainder of the central Caribbean. Meanwhile,

moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in 

the eastern Caribbean, the Windward Passage, and the Gulf of 

Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas are prevalent. 



Divergence aloft associated with an upper level trough and 

abundant tropical moisture continue to support scattered moderate 

to strong convection covers the area between west of Jamaica and 

south of 20N. The strongest storms are along the NE coasts of 

Honduras and Nicaragua. These storms can produce gusty winds to

near gale-force, frequent lightning and suddenly higher seas.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of

the basin and lower pressures over northern South America will

support strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central

Caribbean through the remainder of the week and weekend. Rough

seas will prevail with these winds. East winds will pulse fresh

to locally strong each evening in the Gulf of Honduras and

Windward Passage. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A stationary frontal boundary extends from the central Atlantic to

the coast of Georgia, within 30N to 32N. Scattered showers are

noted north of 27N and between 55W and 65W. Moderate to locally

fresh SW winds and moderate seas are present in those waters.

Convection is suppressed elsewhere across much of the basin due to

a large plume of Saharan dust and mid-latitude dry air.



The Atlantic subtropical ridge persists across the basin,

supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of the SE

Bahamas and between 70W and 77W. Moderate to locally fresh

easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 22N and

west of 35W to the Lesser Antilles. Meanwhile, in the far eastern

Atlantic, fresh to locally strong SW winds and seas of 4-8 ft are

evident south of 10N and east of 27W. Elsewhere, gentle to 

moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain

dominant through the forecast period. The weather pattern will 

support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with gentle winds 

to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night 

offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. 



$$

Delgado


########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################