--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC090611_C_KWBC_20260609061216_32440682-2310-TWDAT.txt ****0000005041**** AXNT20 KNHC 090611 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Jun 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W, from 16N to 05N, moving west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 38W, from 16N to 05N, moving westward at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 51W, from 17N to 05N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is along 79W, south of 20N to central coastal Panama, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The tropical wave is interacting with a middle level trough, which is enhancing convection. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 18N between 72W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N16W and extends SW to 05N27W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 05N38W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 25W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails across the central and eastern Gulf waters, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered nearby the Florida Big Bend near 29N84W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure over the remainder Gulf due to the proximity of TS Boris and TS Cristina is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the Gulf waters W of 87W along with 3 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail elsewhere along with slight seas. For the forecast, a surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region through the week, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds in the western Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate to fresh E winds pulsing to fresh to strong speeds during the evenings through at least Wed. A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, perhaps from late Thu through Fri night accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge, a tropical wave with axis along 79W, and T.S. Cristina in the Eastern Pacific, offshore of Nicaragua, supports fresh to strong E to SE winds with moderate seas in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned conditions will likely last through the forecast period. In addition, a trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche perhaps later Thu through Fri night, maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 31N65W to 24N74W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near and E of the trough axis mainly W of 60W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 216N, anchored by a 1034 mb high centered SW of the Azores near 35N32W. Moderate or weaker winds are N of 20N and W of 40W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between 30W and 40W while fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere E of 30W along with rough seas to 10 ft. Across the tropical Atlantic waters, winds are moderate to fresh and seas moderate to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will remain nearly stationary through midweek. A weak cold front will move across the N waters Tue, then move very slowly or stall on Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward north of the area through the end of the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending toward Florida and southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the far western section of the basin during the week. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC091020_C_KWBC_20260609102115_9109880-5303-TWDAT.txt ****0000005116**** AXNT20 KNHC 091020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Jun 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W, from 15N to 05N, moving west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W, from 15N to 05N, moving westward at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 54W, from 16N to 05N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is along 81W, south of 18N to 10N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The tropical wave is interacting with a mid-level trough, which is enhancing convection. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 75W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm N of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure centered over the NW Atlantic. A surface trough is analyzed from 30N84W to 25N83W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough N of 25N and E of 90W. To the SW, another trough is analyzed from 22N91W to 19N92W. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails across the Bay of Campeche W if the trough and S of 20N. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail over the Gulf waters W of 87W along with 3 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail elsewhere along with slight seas. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region through the week, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds in the western Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate to fresh E winds pulsing to fresh to speeds during the evenings through Wed. A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, on Thu through Fri night accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge, a tropical wave with axis along 79W, and T.S. Cristina in the Eastern Pacific, offshore of Nicaragua, supports fresh to strong E to SE winds with moderate seas in the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned conditions will likely last through the forecast period. In addition, a trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche perhaps later Thu through Fri night, maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 27N73W to 23N75W. Another trough is analyzed from 31N62W to 27N70W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near and E of second trough mainly W of 57W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered SW of the Azores near 36N34W. Moderate or weaker winds are N of 20N and W of 50W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are between 35W and 50W while fresh to strong NE winds are elsewhere E of 35W along with rough seas to 10 ft. Across the tropical Atlantic waters, winds are moderate to fresh and seas moderate to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will remain nearly stationary through midweek. A weak cold front will move across the N waters Tue, then move very slowly or stall on Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward north of the area through the end of the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending toward Florida and southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the far western section of the basin during the week. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC091609_C_KWBC_20260609161021_32440682-2339-TWDAT.txt ****0000004780**** AXNT20 KNHC 091609 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Jun 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, S of 15N, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 45W, S of 15N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W, S of 16N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 53W and 57W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W, south of 18N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 19N between 74W and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W and extends SW to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 06N32W, then from 05.5N35.5W to 05N43W, then from 06N47W to 05.5N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 08N between 20W and 31W, and from 02N to 09N between 35W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Surface ridging prevails across the northern basin. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure around TS Cristina and TD Boris is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the waters W of 90W as well as the SE Gulf. Gentle winds are noted over the NE Gulf. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range W of 90W, and 2-4 ft E of 90W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds in the western Gulf through much of this week. Slight to moderate seas will also prevail. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate to fresh E winds pulsing to fresh to speeds during the evenings through Wed. A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, on Thu through Fri night accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across the Caribbean waters. The interaction of a tropical wave and upper level troughing is supporting active convection over the western waters in the vicinity of the tropical wave. For the forecast, a gradual increase in winds up to fresh to strong speeds are expected later this afternoon and evening. These conditions will prevail through the forecast period. In addition, a trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu through Fri night, maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 27N71W to 24N77W. Another trough is analyzed from 31N60W to 26N67W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near and E of second trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered SW of the Azores near 36N34W. Moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas, are N of 20N and W of 50W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 20N and E of 25W, where seas are in the 7-9 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the first trough will remain nearly stationary through midweek. The other trough will move across the N waters today, then move very slowly or stall on Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of the frontal remnant trough will shift eastward north of the area through the end of the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending toward Florida and southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the far western section of the basin during the week. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################