--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-29 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC290331_C_KWBC_20260529033156_49676782-4227-TWDAT.txt ****0000005916**** AXNT20 KNHC 290331 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri May 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 48W south of 15N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 64W south of 15N to inland central Venezuela. It is moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave over the Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16N17W, then curves south then southwestward to near 13N203W. The ITCZ extends from 10N22W to to 06N35W and to 06N30W to 07N40W to 05N48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 06N between 35W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper low is centered over the Bay of Campeche near 21N95W. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active east of this feature over the south-central Gulf north of the Yucatan Peninsula. A few showers and thunderstorms are also active north of the Yucatan Channel and off the northwest coast of Cuba, along a surface trough that reaches from off western Cuba to the central Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, 1016 mb high pressure is centered over the northeast Gulf near 28N85W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes across the Gulf, except over the far southwest Gulf where gusty outflows are possible near the thunderstorms. Seas are mostly 2-4 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the pattern will continue to sustain gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin through Tue, except for evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in the central Gulf. The pronounced deep- layered upper- level trough across the western Gulf combined with a very warm, humid and unstable airmass will continue to support periodic showers and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A generally drier, subsident pattern is in place across the central and eastern Caribbean, suppressing shower and thunderstorm activity. Over the northwest Caribbean, divergent southerly flow in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere along with abundant deep layer moisture is supporting late evening, sea-breeze generated showers and thunderstorms across northern Central America and the eastern plains of Nicaragua, but no significant activity over the water at this time. Broad ridging north of the basin across the western Atlantic, along with lower pressure over northern South America is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds across mainly the central Caribbean, and combined seas of 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Satellite imagery shows a plume of Saharan dust across the Tropical Atlantic that extends westward to the eastern Caribbean. The dust is expected to increase late in the weekend and into early next week. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the central Caribbean through tonight before gradually diminishing in areal coverage on Fri. Winds are expected to pulse to near-gale force offshore Colombia the rest of tonight. Fresh E to SE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through early next week. The aforementioned high is going to weaken and open up into a ridge near 24N by Fri. This will yield moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the basin through the weekend, except the south- central Caribbean, where fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist. Looking ahead, a tropical wave is forecast to reach the Windward Islands late on Sat, leading to increased shower activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge stretches west- southwestward from a 1027 mb high between the eastern Azores and Madeira to the northern Bahamas and off eastern Florida. This pattern is promoting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds along with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swell north of 22N between 35W and the central Bahamas/Florida coast. Across the tropical Atlantic south of 22N between 35W and the southeast Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds and seas in the range of 6 to 8 ft are present there as depicted in recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite passes. A Saharan dust plume is observed over this area roughly from 08N and 20N, with a dense plume of dust over the waters east of 40W to the coast of Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge over the western Atlantic will support gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas south of 28N into nearly next week. For the waters north of 28N and east of 70W, two cold fronts migrating eastward across the north Atlantic are going to bring fresh to strong winds along with rough seas tonight through Fri night, then again from Sat night through Sun night. Winds from Sat night through Sun might peak at near-gale force in the area. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC290949_C_KWBC_20260529095014_47448518-4346-TWDAT.txt ****0000005803**** AXNT20 KNHC 290949 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri May 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W south of 15N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W south of 15N to inland central Venezuela. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave over the Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16N17W, then curves south then southwestward to near 10N23W. The ITCZ extends from 10N23W to 03N40W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 07N between 18W and 21W, and from 05N to 07N between 37W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper low is centered over the Bay of Campeche near 21N95W. An associated 1011 mb surface low is centered Ciudad del Carmen in the Bay of Campeche. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active near the surface low and over the south- central Gulf north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, 1016 mb high pressure is centered over the eastern Gulf near 27N85W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes across the Gulf, except over the far southwest Gulf where gusty outflows are possible near the thunderstorms. Seas are mostly 2-4 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the pattern will sustain gentle to moderate E to SE winds through Tue. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in the central Gulf through the same period. A pronounced deep-layered upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with a very warm, humid and unstable airmass will continue to support periodic showers and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A generally drier, subsident pattern is in place across the central and eastern Caribbean, suppressing shower and thunderstorm activity. Over the northwest Caribbean, divergent southerly flow in the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere along with abundant deep layer moisture is supporting late evening, sea-breeze generated showers and thunderstorms across Belize, with a larger cluster of thunderstorms off Costa Rica and southeast Nicaragua, responding to drainage off the land. Broad ridging north of the basin across the western Atlantic, along with lower pressure over northern South America is supporting fresh to strong tradewinds across mainly the central Caribbean, and combined seas of 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Satellite imagery shows a plume of Saharan dust across the tropical Atlantic that extends westward to the eastern Caribbean. The dust is expected to increase late in the weekend and into early next week. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the central Caribbean through this morning before gradually diminishing in areal coverage this afternoon and evening. Moderate E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras are going to pulse to fresh during the night through Tue night. The aforementioned high is going to weaken and open up into a ridge near 24N later today. This will yield moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the basin through Tue, except the south-central Caribbean, where fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist. Looking ahead, a tropical wave is forecast to reach the Windward Islands late on Sat, leading to increased shower activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge stretches west- southwestward from a 1026 mb high between the eastern Azores and Madeira to the northern Bahamas and off eastern Florida. This pattern is promoting gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds along with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swell north of 22N between 35W and the central Bahamas/Florida coast. Across the tropical Atlantic south of 22N between 35W and the southeast Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds and seas in the range of 6 to 8 ft are present there as depicted in recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite passes. A Saharan dust plume is observed over this area roughly from 08N and 20N, with a dense plume of dust over the waters east of 40W to the coast of Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge over the western Atlantic will support gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas south of 26N through Tue. For the waters north of 26N and east of 70W, two cold fronts migrating eastward across the north Atlantic are going to bring fresh to strong winds along with rough seas through this evening, then again from Sat night through Sun night. Winds related to the second cold front might peak at near-gale force from Sat night through Sun. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC291734_C_KWBC_20260529173502_49676782-4280-TWDAT.txt ****0000005323**** AXNT20 KNHC 291734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri May 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 10N between 50W and 59W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 71W south of 15N to inland central Venezuela. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave over the Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 16.5N16.5W, then curves southwestward to near 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 07N25W to 04N37W to 05N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N and E of 22W, and from 00N to 09N between 36W and 51W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper level low over the Bay of Campeche and attendant 1009 mb surface low support scattered moderate to strong convection over the central Gulf. Outside of convection, gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail across much of the Gulf. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. This system will sustain gentle to moderate E to SE winds through Tue. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in the central Gulf through the same period. A pronounced deep-layered upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with a very warm, humid and unstable airmass will continue to support periodic showers and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough is located over SE Mexico while the East Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean. The combined effects from these features are enhancing numerous moderate to strong convection in the SW Caribbean along the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama, with more scattered moderate convection occurring along the coasts of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades and 7-9 ft seas across the south-central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the central Caribbean this morning before gradually diminishing in areal coverage this afternoon and evening. Moderate E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras are going to pulse to fresh speeds during the night through Tue night. The aforementioned ridge is going to weaken as a couple of frontal boundaries move across the western Atlantic. This will yield moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the basin through Tue, except the south-central Caribbean, where fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist. Looking ahead, a tropical wave is forecast to reach the Windward Islands by Sat afternoon, leading to increased shower activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front runs along 31N between 68W and 80W. Ahead of the front, generally N of 27N between 45W and 70W, SW winds have increased to fresh to strong speeds while seas are building to 7-10 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring N of 28N between 75W and 80W. All other convection across the Atlantic is associated with tropical waves or the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Ridging dominates much of the remaining Atlantic, with moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevailing across the vast majority of the basin W of 25W. Areas E of 25W and N of 17N are seeing fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas, confirmed by scatterometer data from this morning. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail within a ridge axis that extends from just W of the Canary Islands through the central Atlantic and to areas just N of the Bahamas. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge over the western Atlantic will support gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas south of 26N through Tue. For the waters north of 26N and east of 70W, two cold fronts migrating eastward across the north Atlantic are going to bring fresh to strong winds along with rough seas through this evening, then again from Sat night through Sun night. Winds may reach near gale force ahead of the second front Sat night through Sun. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################