--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC100613_C_KWBC_20260510061426_9109880-2929-TWDAT.txt ****0000005641**** AXNT20 KNHC 100613 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun May 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure well north of the region and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will lead to gale force winds off northwest Colombia through early this morning and then again on tonight along with very rough seas. This gradient will weaken some early next week as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic allowing for the pulsing gale conditions to end Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis near 17W from 01N to 12N, moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 00N to 13N between 10W and 24W. A tropical wave is about 660 nmi SE of the Windward Islands with axis near 52W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 12N between 48W and 56W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 11N15W to 07N18W. The ITCZ axis extends from 02N19W to 00N35W to near 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08S to 08N between 29W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The interaction between a middle level trough and a surface trough in the NW Gulf results in scattered showers and strong thunderstorms across the NE Mexico offshore waters. A 1002 mb low near Veracruz, Mexico is supporting numerous moderate to strong convection offshore Veracruz and in the western Bay of Campeche. Winds are moderate to fresh from the SE offshore Louisiana and over the northern Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere, except in the areas of strong convection where strong to gusty winds are likely. Seas basin-wide are slight to moderate, except for potentially locally rough seas in the areas of strong convection. For the forecast, unsettled weather conditions will persist in the area ahead of the next front. Farther south, winds will pulse to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sun night. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the northern Gulf waters early Mon morning, and reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Mon, followed by moderate to locally strong N to NE winds. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected off Veracruz Mon night into Tue morning. Scattered to numerous showers and strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. Conditions will improve across the Gulf Tue night into Wed as the front weakens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features for information on an ongoing gale warning for offshore Colombia. Aside from the gale warning information, the pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures in the deep tropics is resulting in fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and locally rough seas in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between the 1028 mb high pressure system over the NW Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds with rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through late next week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. During the nighttime hours through Sun night, these winds are expected to reach gale-force off northwestern Colombia. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale E winds and rough seas are also anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front lingers south of Bermuda, while divergence aloft supports a few showers and isolated thunderstorms off NE Florida. High pressure dominates the remainder of the basin, supporting fresh E to SE winds off northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere in the subtropics. In the tropical Atlantic, NE to E winds are mainly fresh. Seas are mainly moderate basin- wide. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to dominate, supporting fresh to locally strong winds off northern Hispaniola through Mon night. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the waters off NE Florida late Mon and move eastward while weakening Tue and Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front, diminishing quickly Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible near the front. Building ridge over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh SE-S winds and moderate to rough seas E of 70W late next week. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC100959_C_KWBC_20260510095951_38666572-2961-TWDAT.txt ****0000004980**** AXNT20 KNHC 100959 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun May 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure well north of the region and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will lead to gale force winds off northwest Colombia through early this morning and then again on tonight along with rough seas. This gradient will weaken some early this week as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic allowing for the pulsing gale conditions to end Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis near 18W, south of 11N, moving westward at about 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident near the trough axis. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 53W, south of 10N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 00N30W and to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 08N and between 30W and 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergence aloft is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche, western and northern Gulf waters. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas are occurring north of Yucatan and off SE Texas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, winds will pulse to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through tonight. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf waters early Mon morning, and reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Mon, followed by moderate to locally strong N to NE winds. Fresh NW winds are expected off Veracruz Mon night into Tue morning. Scattered to numerous showers and strong thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. Conditions will improve across the Gulf Tue night into Wed as the front weakens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features for information on an ongoing gale warning for offshore Colombia. Aside from the gale warning, the pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and locally rough seas in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the tight pressure gradient between the 1030 mb high pressure system over the N Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds with rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through late next week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. During the nighttime hours through tonight, these winds are expected to reach gale-force off NW Colombia. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale E winds and rough seas are also anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of 25N and west of 55W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 are noted south of 25N and east of 55W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the much of the basin, supporting fresh to locally strong winds off northern Hispaniola through Mon night. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the waters off NE Florida late Mon and move eastward while weakening Tue and Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front, diminishing quickly Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible near the front. Building ridge over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh SE-S winds and moderate to rough seas E of 70W late next week. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC101747_C_KWBC_20260510174731_9109880-2963-TWDAT.txt ****0000005930**** AXNT20 KNHC 101747 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun May 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge across the western Atlantic and a 1005 mb low pressure near northwestern Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas at the south-central Caribbean Sea through midweek. These winds off Barranquilla, Colombia are expected to peak at near-gale to gale-force tonight, along with 10 to 12 ft seas. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An early-season eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 19W from 10N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 01N to 04N between 18W and 25W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is near the border of Suriname and French Guiana, and south of 10N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present near and off the coast of Suriname and French Guiana. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone to 01N21W. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 01N21W to beyond 00N24W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 03N west of 14W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring farther north of the ITCZ from 00N to 05N between 33W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough curves west-southwestward from northern Florida to near the coastal border of Texas and Louisiana. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present south of New Orleans and the Florida Panhandle. To the southwest, a 1009 mb low near 22N96W is coupling with abundant tropical moisture to trigger numerous heavy showers and scattered strong thunderstorms at the southwestern Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge is promoting light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas at the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Gulf. For the forecast, the low will continue to produce scattered thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf into Mon. Fresh to strong SE winds will pulse each evening offshore the Yucatan Peninsula as a diurnal trough moves off the coast. A cold front will move off the Texas coast Mon morning, reach from Tampa Bay to near Veracruz, Mexico Tue, then exit the Gulf Wed. Numerous thunderstorms are expected along this frontal boundary. Behind the front, mainly tranquil conditions will set in, but some fresh NW winds are likely offshore Veracruz Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above on an upcoming Gale Warning. Fresh to strong ENE to E trade winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are present at the south-central and part of the southwestern basin. Mostly fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas dominate the north- central basin, and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft exist at the lee of Cuba and near Jamaica. Moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, as mentioned in the Special Feature section, a tight pressure gradient will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds with rough seas in the south-central basin through late week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds and locally rough seas are anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southerly winds near a stationary front off the Georgia coast are creating scattered moderate convection off northeast Florida, north of 29N. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist north of 25N between 70W and the Florida coast. To the east, a broad subtropical ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft north of 25N between 35W and 70W. From 15N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas, gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the much of the basin, with the pressure gradient between it and lower pressure in the Caribbean supporting fresh to locally strong winds off northern Hispaniola through Mon night. A cold front is expected to reach the waters off northeastern Florida late Mon and move eastward while weakening Tue and Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front before improving Wed as the front weakens. Scattered thunderstorms, some strong, are likely near the front. In the wake of the cold front, high pressure building over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh SE to S winds and moderate to rough seas east of 70W late this week. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC102127_C_KWBC_20260510212732_9109880-2970-TWDAT.txt ****0000007642**** AXNT20 KNHC 102127 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon May 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between broad western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades along with rough seas over the south-central Caribbean Sea through the middle of the week. These trades are forecast to reach near-gale to gale-force tonight off northwest Colombia with seas building to a peak of 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 20W south of 10N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01N to 05N between the wave and 25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 56W south of 10N to inland the central portion of Suriname. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 06N to 10N, and within 60 nm west of the wave from 06N to 09N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau to 05N16W and to 02N23W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues southwestward to beyond 00N25W to 04S34W and to inland Brazil near 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is well south of the monsoon trough from 01N to 03N between 06W-13W, also within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 45W-50W, and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 38W-45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A trough extends from southeastern Louisiana to just east of South Texas while another a trough extends from northeast Florida southwestward to near Cedar Key, Florida and to near 27N88W. In the southwest part of the basin, a 1009 mb low is near 21N97W, with a trough extending to Tampico and another trough that reaches from the low to just east of Veracruz, Mexico. The atmosphere remains very moist and unstable to the south and east of these troughs. In addition, a well pronounced subtropical jet stream branch stretches from the eastern Pacific northeastward across the basin contributing to the atmospheric instability. Scattered showers to numerous showers and thunderstorms are seen from 19N to 25N between 91W and 95W, including the central Bay of Campeche. Isolated showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere between a line from 30N91W to Veracruz and 87W and also north of 26N east of 87W. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure gradient is generally allowing for light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, and for gentle to moderate southeast to south winds elsewhere over the basin. Latest altimeter satellite data passes and recent buoy observations indicate seas of 2 to 4 ft throughout, except for lower seas of 1 to 2 ft over the northeast part of the basin. For the forecast, the low will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf into Mon. Fresh to strong southeast winds will pulse each evening offshore the Yucatan Peninsula as a diurnal trough moves off the coast. A cold front will move off the Texas coast early Mon morning, with thunderstorms ahead of it. This front will move southeastward and stretch from near Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche Tue, then stall over the far southeast part of the basin Wed. Ahead of the front, fresh to locally strong southeast winds will pulse tonight and Mon night offshore the Yucatan Peninsula as a diurnal trough moves offshore. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for information about expected gale conditions offshore Colombia tonight. Fresh to strong trades are over the south-central portion of the basin per latest scatterometer satellite data. Seas with these winds are in the range of 8 to 12 ft. Similar seas are to the west from 11N to 15N between 76W and 80W. The scatterometer satellite data also reveals mostly fresh trades over just about the remainder of the basin, except south of 11N between the coast of Colombia and Central America, where trades are lighter, gentle to moderate in speeds and seas are 6 to 9 ft in northeast swell. Moderate southeast winds are between Cuba and Jamaica and south of Cuba to 19N between Jamaica and 84W. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft per a recent altimeter satellite data pass. Seas of about 4 to 7 ft are elsewhere, except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in east to southeast swell north of 15N east of 72W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have recently developed over most of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, as mentioned in the Special Feature section, a tight pressure gradient will support fresh to strong trades along with rough seas in the south-central portion of the sea through late in the week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Strong winds and locally rough seas are also anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean through at least the middle portion of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The ingredients consisting of mid-level disturbances and a stationary front off the Georgia coast is resulting in abundant atmospheric instability that is bringing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection off the Florida coast north of about 29N and spreading eastward to near 72W. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are north of 25N between 70W and the Florida coast. To the east, the pressure gradient related to a broad subtropical ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft north of 25N between 35W and 70W. Gentle to moderate northeast to east- southeast winds are from 15N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas. Seas are about 5 to 6 ft over these areas. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the rest of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates the much of the basin, with the pressure gradient between it and lower pressure in the Caribbean expected to support fresh to locally strong winds off northern Hispaniola through Mon night. A cold front is expected to reach the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night, and move eastward while weakening Tue and Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front before it weakens and conditions improve Tue night. Along and ahead of the front, thunderstorms, some strong, are expected. Starting mid-week, high pressure building over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh southeast to south winds and moderate to rough seas easts of about 70W. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################