--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-04-18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC180349_C_KWBC_20260418035012_38666572-1432-TWDAT.txt ****0000004439**** AXNT20 KNHC 180349 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Apr 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A high pressure ridge extends southwestward from a 1017 mb high center that is near the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are over the western half of the basin. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Latest buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data indicate light to gentle winds in the eastern portion of the Gulf, with the exception of moderate northeast to east winds in the far southeastern part of the basin near western Cuba and in the Straits of Florida. Seas in the range of 3 to 5 ft are over the remainder of the Gulf, except for lower seas of less than 3 ft in the NE and eastern Gulf sections. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will remain in place and slowly weaken through Sat, maintaining a weak pressure gradient across the basin. This pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin through Sat. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will result in a locally tighter pressure gradient to support a pulsing of fresh to strong winds during the evenings. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sat night through the early part of the week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon then dissipate into mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Water vapor imagery reveals a lingering mid to upper-level trough that extends from the central Atlantic southwestward to across the eastern portion of Hispaniola. A surface trough is analyzed from eastern Cuba southward to 16N79W. Abundant moisture east of these features in combination with dynamics aloft related to the mid to upper-level trough is resulting in an unsettled weather pattern for the eastern Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail E of 67W. The unsettled weather conditions will continue for the eastern Caribbean through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trades are over the eastern Caribbean along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Mostly gentle trades are over the rest of the basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the surface trough will drift slowly westward and weaken through Sat. Gentle to moderate winds through the remainder of the forecast period. Fresh NE winds may develop early next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late- season cold front moving into Cuba. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad surface trough extends southward from near 28N73W to eastern Cuba near 21N77W. The pressure gradient related to high pressure of 1023 mb north of the area at 32N48W is generally providing for light to gentle winds north of 25N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are within this area of winds as noted in SoFar buoy and altimeter satellite data. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell are over the rest of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will dissipate through Sat. High pressure will build into the area from the east in the wake of the trough. A cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon, from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue, before stalling and dissipating along roughly 22N through mid week. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC180928_C_KWBC_20260418092915_38666572-1454-TWDAT.txt ****0000003176**** AXNT20 KNHC 180928 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Apr 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 10W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A high pressure ridge extends southwestward from a 1016 mb high center over the NE Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Light winds and seas of 1-2 ft are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are found west of the Yucatan peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will slowly weaken today. A weak pressure gradient across the basin will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin today. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf tonight through the early part of the week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon then dissipate into mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Caribbean basin. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, a weaker than usual pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds through the forecast period. Fresh NE winds may develop early next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late- season cold front moving into Cuba. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 30N73W to the central Bahamas. A surface trough is just off the coast of western Africa. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 33N47W. Light to gentle winds are over the northern waters in the vicinity of the high. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas of 7-9 ft are found S of 16N as well as east of 30W. Seas of 4-7 ft generally prevail elsewhere, except 3-4 ft over the far NW portion of the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will dissipate today. High pressure will build into the area from the east in the wake of the trough. A cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon, from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue, before stalling and dissipating along roughly 22N through mid week. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################