--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC190001_C_KWBC_20260919000239_31523192-3996-TWDAT.txt ****0000007589**** AXNT20 KNHC 190001 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Sep 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis extending from near 21N44W to 11N42W. It is moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is east of the wave from 15N to 18N between 39W and 42W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 12N to 16N between 33W and 39W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis roughly along 80W south of 19N to central Panama and moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is southwest of Jamaica, while numerous moderate to strong convection is along the intersection of the wave and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, across the coastal waters of Panama and Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 11N21W to 12.5N31W to 13N38W and northwestward to 16N48W. The ITCZ extends from 12N48W to 13N52W to 11N57W to 10N62W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical wave described above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 48W-51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 22W-31W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Low-level residual moisture from a recent frontal boundary remains over the southern Gulf south of about 26N between Florida and Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is present from 22N to 26N between 82W and 94W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over some sections of the Straits of Florida. At the surface, a broad high pressure ridge extends across the southeastern U.S. along about 34N, and is promoting gentle to moderate easterly winds across the basin north of 25N, where seas are 4 to 7 ft. A trough is analyzed from near 26N90W to 23N92W and to 21.5N95W. This feature is aiding in focusing convection to its east, and promoting the strongest winds and seas across the basin across the northern end of the trough. Light to gentle mostly easterly winds prevail south of 25N per latest satellite scatterometer data and buoy observations. Seas over this part of the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over most of the Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere over the basin south of 27N. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will dominate the Gulf region supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through Sun. Winds will then ease to light to gentle speeds early next week, with seas remaining slight. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level low currently located over northeastern Florida will move into the NE Gulf on Sat. This feature will lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf waters. Fairly tranquil marine conditions are forecast by the end of the weekend into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the tropical wave section for details on a wave in the central Caribbean including associated convection. Upper- level disturbances riding along a jet stream branch across the northwest Caribbean are supporting scattered moderate convection across the Gulf of Honduras and near the tropical wave. Elsewhere, fair skies prevail across the basin. The pressure gradient between weakening high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is allowing for fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean south of 17N between 66W and 78W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are found elsewhere from 10N to 19N to the east of 80W, along with seas of 4 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3 to 5 ft remain across the remainder of the basin, except for seas to 6 ft across southwest portions across the western coastal waters of Panama. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over he western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will generally maintain fresh to strong trades along with moderate to locally rough seas over most of the central Caribbean through early Sat morning. Winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds thereafter as the pressure gradient relaxes across the area. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening stationary front extends from near 31N72W to near 29N79W. Broad upper level low pressure over northern Florida is promoting unstable conditions across much of the area W of 68W. Converging low-level moisture associated with the front is producing scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 22N to 28N between the Straits of Florida and 68W. Similar activity is south of 22N between 69W and 76W, reaching the interior portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate northeast winds north of he front, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Winds are light to gentle between 60W and South Florida south of the front, except for fresh southeast winds along the northern coast of Hispaniola to 22N. Weak high pressure and light winds prevail east of the front to near 46W. A trough extends from near 31N44W to 27N48W and to 25N55W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm southeast of the trough between 49W and 55W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 25N to 31N between 40W and 55W. To the northeast, a 1023 mb high center is near 35N44W. Associated broad ridging covers the eastern and central Atlantic. Mostly moderate northeast to east trades prevail south of 25N between the Cabo Verdes and the tropical wave that is along the position of 21N44W to 11N42W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Well to the east, fresh to strong north to northeast winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found from 16N to 22N between Africa and 20W due to a tight pressure gradient between low pressure in NW Africa and the Atlantic ridge. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are elsewhere from 16N to 31N to the east of 28W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the weakening stationary front will dissipate late tonight, or early on Sat. High pressure will become the dominant feature across the basin during the weekend into early next week, promoting light to gentle winds with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas offshore Hispaniola. Meanwhile, abundant tropical moisture, combined with an upper- level low that is presently over northeast Florida, will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, mainly west of about 70W through at least Sun. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################