--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-01-29 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC290407_C_KWBC_20260129040803_12124482-5060-TWDAT.txt ****0000006515**** AXNT20 KNHC 290407 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Jan 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front extends from E Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua. This boundary, along with low level onshore flow, will allow for deep moisture to prevail in the area. Heavy rainfall is expected through Thu, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize, and isolated 4+ inches possible along the windward slopes and near the north coast of Honduras where the onshore flow persists. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the area through today. Please follow your local weather office for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 01N35W and 00N50W. No significant convection is noted near these boundaries. GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough in the central Gulf and another one in the SW Gulf support some cloudiness in the basin, although any shower activity associated with this convection is very light. The Gulf is under the influence of a strong high pressure that forces moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-6 ft in the eastern and SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a stalled cold front in the NW Caribbean has begun to drift southeastward. High pressure over the southern Plains will shift east through Thu ahead of a low pressure area moving into the lower Mississippi Valley, with a trailing cold front that will move off the Texas coast Thu night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to Tampico, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will rapidly deepen Fri as it moves into the western Atlantic late Fri and Sat. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force winds over the eastern Gulf on Sat, and possibly off Veracruz in the southwest Gulf, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Sun and Mon as high pressure builds over the northern Gulf following the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the significant rainfall even expected over the Honduras/Nicaragua area through Thu. A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the coast of Nicaragua. Stratocumulus clouds cover much of the NW Caribbean behind the front. The tight pressure gradient between this front and the ridge over the southern United States support fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas behind the boundary. In the south-central Caribbean, a recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong NE winds. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the aforementioned front has begun to drift southward across the western Caribbean, as high pressure across the N Gulf of America is starting to move eastward. Winds across NW portions behind the front will increase to fresh to strong tonight through Thu, and force it slowly southeastward, reaching from E Cuba to the SE coast of Nicaragua Thu morning, then stall and begin to weaken from E Cuba to near the Nicaragua- Costa Rica border Thu evening through Fri. An unusually strong cold front will move into the NW basin Sat morning and move southeastward, merging with the old lingering front from E Cuba to central Panama Sat evening, then reach from eastern Hispaniola to the NW coast of Colombia by Sun evening. Strong to near gale- force N winds are expected behind this front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N48W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. A few light showers are evident near this boundary. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring behind the boundary and south of 26N. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 8-13 ft are found north of 27N and east of the front to 35W. Fresh to locally strong westerly winds and moderate to rough seas are noted north of 30N and west of 65W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1025 mb high pressure near 27N28W that extends southwestward to Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to locally very rough seas are found south of 24N and east of 60W. The strongest winds and highest seas are evident in the eastern Atlantic. Large northerly swell spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Rough to very rough seas are found north of 24N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will meander across this area through Thu. High pressure across the Gulf of America will build eastward into the W Atlantic and freshen winds behind the lingering front Thu through Thu evening, and nudge the front southward to the Atlantic approach to the Windward Passage. An unusually strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic waters on Sat. Associated low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic this weekend, inducing a large area of westerly gale- force winds across the local waters N of 24N Sat through Sun evening. The front is expected to reach from 31N74W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, and from 31N62W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC291033_C_KWBC_20260129103406_12124482-5088-TWDAT.txt ****0000008831**** AXNT20 KNHC 291033 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jan 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front extends from E Cuba to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua. This boundary, along with low level onshore flow, will allow for deep moisture to prevail in the area. Heavy rainfall is expected through Thu, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize, and isolated 4+ inches possible along the windward slopes and near the north coast of Honduras where the onshore flow persists. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the area through today. Please follow your local weather office for more details. Gulf of America Gale Warning: Another cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. An associated complex area of low pressure will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves from the SE U.S. into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of the Gulf basin on Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near Veracruz early Sat morning through midday Sat, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening. Very large seas are expected to build behind this front Fri night through Sun, reaching 15 to 18 ft across eastern portions of the basin and into the western Florida coastal waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N14.5W and continues southwestward to 04.5N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N19W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5S to 05N between 19W and 50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01.5S to 03N E of 14W. GULF OF AMERICA... See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning for the SW Gulf, expected to begin in 48 hours. 1028 mb high pressure has drifted southeastward into the NW Gulf tonight, centered offshore the Louisiana coast near 29N92.5W. A surface trough in the central Gulf to near the Yucatan coast, and a coastal trough in the SW Gulf support some cloudiness in the basin, although any shower activity associated with this convection is very light. The pressure gradient between the high, the central Gulf trough, and a lingering front in the NW Caribbean is producing mostly fresh N winds across the SE Gulf and into the NW Caribbean this morning, where seas are 4 to 7 ft, highest in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate NE winds prevail across the Bay of Campeche to the west of the coastal trough, with seas of 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the fresh N winds across the SE Gulf will gradually diminish through morning, as the front in the NW Caribbean drifts southward. High pressure over the southern Plains will shift east today ahead of a low pressure area moving into the lower Mississippi Valley, with a trailing cold front moving off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near Veracruz early Sat morning, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the northern Gulf following the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the significant rainfall even expected over the Honduras/Nicaragua area through Thu. A lingering front remains nearly stationary from the east coast of Cuba to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua, where it has been drifting southward overnight. Stratocumulus clouds and light showers cover much of the NW Caribbean behind the front. The tight pressure gradient between this front and the ridge over the southern United States and Gulf of America supports fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas behind the boundary. Seas remain 7 to 10 ft across much of this area. In the south- central Caribbean, recent satellite scatterometer data captured fresh to strong NE winds S of 13.5N to the coast of Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the aforementioned front has begun to drift southward across the western Caribbean, as high pressure across the NW Gulf of America is starting to shift eastward. Fresh to strong N winds will prevail across NW portions behind the front through this evening, and force it slowly southward, reaching E Cuba to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border, where it will stall and begin to weaken this evening through Fri. An unusually strong cold front will move into the NW basin Sat morning and move southeastward, merging with the old lingering front from E Cuba to western Panama Sat evening, from eastern Hispaniola to the NW coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to NW Colombia Mon evening. Strong to near gale-force N winds are expected behind this front, generating very rough seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An Atlantic front is stationary from 31N48W to 1014 mb low pressure near 25N67W to the east coast of Cuba. Scattered light to moderate showers are evident along the front and E through NE of the low. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring behind the boundary and south of 27N, except seas of 9 to 10 ft within 120 nm N of the front due to fresh winds. Moderate to fresh SW winds and seas of 8-14 ft in NW swell are found north of 27N and east of the front to 35W. North of the stalled front, a reinforcing front is moving southeast of Bermuda, with fresh to locally strong westerly winds and moderate to rough seas to 9 ft in W-NW swell occurring north of 30N and west of 65W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1025 mb high pressure near 27N27W that extends west-southwestward to Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to locally very rough seas in mixed N and E swell are found south of 24N and east of 60W. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the eastern Atlantic. Large northerly swell spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Rough to very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft are found north of 24N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will meander across this area through tonight. High pressure across the Gulf of America will build eastward into the W Atlantic and freshen winds behind the lingering front today and tonight, and nudge the front southward to near the Atlantic approach to the Windward Passage. An unusually strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic waters Sat morning. Associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters N of 23.5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to reach from 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC291703_C_KWBC_20260129170408_12124482-5112-TWDAT.txt ****0000008867**** AXNT20 KNHC 291703 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jan 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front extends from the Windward Passage to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua. This boundary, along with low level onshore flow, is allowing for deep moisture to prevail in the area. Persisting rainfall is expected over northern Honduras and E Nicaragua, particularly along the Caribbean coast, through this evening. Additional rainfall will generally range from 2 to 4 inches, with isolated 4+ inches possible, especially along the windward slopes and near the north coast of Honduras where the onshore flow persists. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the area through later today. Please follow your local weather office for more details. Gulf of America Gale Warning: High pressure over the southeast United States is shifting east today ahead of a low pressure area moving into the lower Mississippi Valley. A trailing cold front will move off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near Veracruz Sat morning, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the northern Gulf following the front. A Gale Watch has been issue for the coastal waters from the Florida Panhandle to SE Louisiana. Of note: With de above mentioned cold front, a potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far South as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, and continues southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to the coast of Brazil near 01N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 03N between 05W and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 04N between 25W and 40W. GULF OF AMERICA... See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning for the SW Gulf, expected to begin on Sat. High pressure of 1026 mb located over the SE of the United States extends a ridge across Florida and the Gulf waters. A surface trough runs from 23N98W to the central Bay of Campeche. An area of mainly low clouds, with possible light showers, is associated with this trough. The pressure gradient between the high, the trough, and a lingering frontal boundary in the western Caribbean is producing moderate to fresh N winds across the SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel, where seas have subsided to 4 to 6 ft based on altimeter data. The highest seas are found in the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure over the southeast United States is shifting east today ahead of a low pressure area moving into the lower Mississippi Valley. A trailing cold front will move off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near Veracruz Sat morning, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the northern Gulf following the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on additional rainfall expected over the Honduras/Nicaragua area through this evening. A lingering front remains nearly stationary from the Windward Passage to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua. Stratocumulus clouds and light showers cover much of the NW Caribbean behind the front. The tight pressure gradient between this front and the ridge over the southern United States and Gulf of America supports fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas behind the boundary. Seas remain 5 to 8 ft across much of this area. In the south-central Caribbean, recent satellite scatterometer data captured fresh to strong NE winds near the coast of Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will prevail across the NW Caribbean behind the stationary front through this evening, and the front may briefly start moving southeastward off Nicaragua and Costa Rica as a weakening cold front Fri into Sat. This will happen ahead of an unusually strong cold front that will move into the northwest Caribbean Sat morning, merging with the old lingering front from eastern Cuba to western Panama Sat evening, from eastern Hispaniola to the northwest coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Colombia Mon evening. Strong to near gale-force N winds are expected behind this front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near a 1014 mb low pressure center at 27N61W, which is along a stationary front that extends from 31N45W to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas follow the front north of 29N, and fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are S of the stationary front to about 25N between 50W and 56W based on scatterometer data. seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is dominated by a 1025 mb high pressure situated near 28N28W. The associated ridge extends toward the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to locally very rough seas in mixed N and E swell are found south of 23N and east of 60W. The strongest winds and highest seas are observed in the eastern Atlantic. Large northerly swell spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Rough to very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft are reaching the Madeira and Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure across the Gulf of America will build eastward into the W Atlantic and freshen winds behind the lingering front today and tonight, and nudge the front southward as a weak cold front to near the Atlantic approaches to the Windward Passage. An unusually strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic waters Sat morning. An associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters N of 23.5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to reach from 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC292303_C_KWBC_20260129230410_12124482-5130-TWDAT.txt ****0000008281**** AXNT20 KNHC 292303 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Jan 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant rainfall event: A weakening stationary front extends from the Windward Passage to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua. This boundary, along with low level onshore flow, is allowing for deep moisture to prevail in the area. Persisting rainfall is expected over northern Honduras and E Nicaragua, particularly along the Caribbean coast, through this evening. Additional rainfall will generally range from 2 to 4 inches, with isolated 4+ inches possible, especially along the windward slopes and near the north coast of Honduras where the onshore flow persists. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware as scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will prevail in the area through later today. Please follow your local weather office for more details. Gulf of America Gale Warning: High pressure over the southeast United States is shifting east today ahead of a low pressure area moving into the lower Mississippi Valley. A trailing cold front will move off the Texas coast tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near Veracruz Sat morning, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the northern Gulf following the front. Of note: With de above mentioned cold front, a potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far South as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, and continues southwestward to 06N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to the coast of Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 08N between 24W and 40W. GULF OF AMERICA... See the Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning for the SW Gulf, expected to begin on Sat. High pressure of 1025 mb located over the SE of the United States extends a ridge across Florida and the Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between the high, the trough, and a lingering frontal boundary in the western Caribbean is producing moderate to fresh N winds across the SE Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel, with moderate seas based on latest altimeter data. The highest seas are found in the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure over the southeast United States is shifting east today ahead of a low pressure area moving into the lower Mississippi Valley. A trailing cold front will move off the Texas coast late tonight. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it reaches from Panama City, Florida to just N of Veracruz, Mexico by Fri evening. The low will rapidly deepen Fri through Sat as it moves into the western Atlantic. This will reinforce the front as it moves southeast of basin Sat, and usher in another blast of arctic air across the Gulf. This will support winds to gale-force near Veracruz Sat morning, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through Sat evening, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts SE into the northern Gulf following the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on additional rainfall expected over the Honduras/Nicaragua area through this evening. A lingering front remains nearly stationary from the Windward Passage to the SE coastal waters of Nicaragua. The tight pressure gradient between this front and the ridge over the southern United States and Gulf of America supports fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas behind the boundary. Moderate to rough seas prevail across much of this area. In the south-central Caribbean, recent satellite scatterometer data captured fresh to strong NE winds near the coast of Colombia. Seas in these waters are moderate. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will prevail across over the reefs off Nicaragua tonight. The front may briefly start moving southeastward off Nicaragua and Costa Rica as a weakening cold front Fri into Sat. This will happen ahead of an unusually strong cold front that will move into the northwest Caribbean Sat morning and move southeastward, merge with the old lingering front from eastern Cuba to western Panama Sat evening. The merged front will reach from eastern Hispaniola to the northwest coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Colombia by early Tue. Strong to near gale- force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered thunderstorms are active near a 1014 mb low pressure center at 28N60W, which is along a stationary front reaching from 31N47W to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas follow the front north of 29N, and fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are ahead of the front. Rough seas are within these winds. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is dominated by a 1025 mb high pressure situated near 28N28W. The associated ridge extends toward the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to very rough seas in mixed N and E swell are found south of 23N and east of 60W. The strongest winds and highest seas are observed in the eastern Atlantic. Large northerly swell spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Rough to very rough seas are reaching the Madeira and Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight, but stall early Fri and lift north of the area through late Fri ahead of a complex low pressure moving into the Carolina coast. This will bring an unusually strong cold front that will move off northeast Florida Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters N of 23.5N, and the central Bahamas, Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. The front is expected to reach from 31N73W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################