--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC300431_C_KWBC_20260830043140_21889468-722-TWDAT.txt ****0000008821**** AXNT20 KNHC 300431 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall: Clusters of showers and thunderstorm continue in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, located along 59W-60W, moving westward around 20 kt. Satellite imagery tonight shows strong SW upper level wind shear continuing to impact this system, with the remnants of the low level center exposed to the west of most of the convection, and approaching the island of Barbuda at this time. A well defined middle level cyclonic circulation is farther east along 57W, and has spawned an area of scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 17N to 20.5N between 55.5W and 60W. Recent satellite scatterometer data suggests that there are no signs that the system is developing a closed circulation, but rather remains a sharp trough. Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it moves westward to west-northwestward around 20 kt. The wave is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the adjacent waters over the next several days. Rainfall amounts and the location of the highest totals will vary from island to island, as local topography will enhance orographic lift and support the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for specific rainfall forecasts for your local area. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 36W-37W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated clusters of moderate convection are within 90 nm of the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 59W-60W, south of 21N, moving westward around 20 kt. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are noted from 15N to 23N between 54W and 64W. See the Special Features section above for more information on this wave. A tropical wave is along 73W and extends from Dominican Republic to eastern Colombia, moving westward near 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring behind the wave across interior portions of Venezuela, while no significant convection is noted over water. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean, along 83W, south of 15N, moving westward at 5 kt. The wave appears to be reorganizing while interacting with the monsoon trough in this area. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted over portions of Central America and adjacent tropical eastern Pacific waters from 04N to 10N between 78W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W, and extends S-SW to near 10N24W. The ITCZ continues from 12N25W to 11N35W, then resumes from 08N40W to 06N49W to 11.5N59W. In addition to the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13.5N between 18W and 34W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm S and 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 40W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered moderate convection is occurring near a weak 1014 mb low pressure center over the N central Gulf near 28.5N88W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere dotting the eastern Gulf waters E of 87W. A middle level trough and upper level diffluent pattern aloft supports this convective activity. A weak 1016 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 29N93W, and dominates the remainder of the basin. Under this pattern, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are occurring across the east and central Bay of Campeche, ahead of the typical thermal trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, weak low pressure in the northern Gulf is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms E of 90W. Some slow development of this low is possible during the next few days as it drifts westward, although there is a low chance of tropical formation over the next seven days. Regardless of development, mariners over the northeast and north-central Gulf should expect active thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally higher seas into early next week. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas into into late next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall information associated with a strong tropical wave that will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Sun. Atlantic high pressure continues a broad ridge along 35N extending westward to near 70W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a 1007 mb Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades offshore Colombia to 15N where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found elsewhere across the north- central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Squalls and showers ahead of the remnants of Dolly are moving across northern Leeward Islands and into the adjacent Caribbean waters. For the forecast, a strong tropical wave will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight, then Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, and Hispaniola Mon. This wave will bring strong to locally near gale force winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall across the islands and adjacent waters. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support strong trades and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean this weekend. These winds will diminish slightly early next week as the aforementioned tropical wave disrupts the pressure gradient. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information about the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, that is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Abundant low level moisture continues to shift northwestward across the Bahamas and waters to the E and NE, and is interacting with a middle level trough extending from the eastern Gulf of America northeastward into the Atlantic. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring across the Bahamas N of 24N, between 70W and 80W, producing areas of strong gusty winds. The Atlantic ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, anchored on a 1026 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 35N32W and extends a ridge westward along 35W to 70W. South of the ridge, fresh to strong winds associated with the remnants of Dolly prevail across the area S of 25N between 53W aND 67W. Elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail S of 24N between 25W and 45W, while fresh NE winds are noted from 10N to 16N between 45W and 52W. Farther east, fresh to locally strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are evident N of 20N and E of 20N to the coast of W Africa, including the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, the ridge generally supports moderate to locally fresh winds easterly winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a strong tropical wave will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight, then Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola on Mon. This wave will bring strong to locally near gale force winds, rough seas, and scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to these islands and nearby waters S of 23N. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep- layer trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W into early next week. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola through Sun night. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC300951_C_KWBC_20260830095246_38011292-1006-TWDAT.txt ****0000007000**** AXNT20 KNHC 300951 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0935 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall across the NE Caribbean: A strong tropical wave, associated with the remnants of Dolly, is moving across the northern Leeward Islands producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, especially from 15N to 22N and between 56W and 65W. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that there are no signs of a closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is unlikely while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at about 25 mph. The system could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next couple of days. The wave is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the adjacent waters over the next several days. Rainfall amounts and the location of the highest totals will vary from island to island, as local topography will enhance orographic lift and support the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for specific rainfall forecasts for your local area. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring within 90 nm on both sides of the trough axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 21N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. Fresh to locally near gale-force winds and rough seas are associated with this wave. Recently a buoy north of the Leeward Islands reported winds gusts to 41 kt and gusts to 43 kt has been reported in the northern Leewards. See the Special Features section above for more information on this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 18N, moving westward near 20 kt. No significant convection is noted over water. For information about the tropical wave crossing Central America, please read the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 11N29W. The ITCZ extends from 12N31W to 11N37W and then from 09N40W to 07N47W and to 10N62W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present within 150 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1015 mb low pres south of the mouth of the Mississippi River is producing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the north-central Gulf waters. A surface trough is noted in the eastern Gulf, also supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. A weak high pressure system dominates the remainder of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are found in the north-central and eastern Gulf waters, especially east of 90W and eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, some slow development of this system (aforementioned low pres) is possible during the next few days as it drifts westward across the northern Gulf. Regardless of development, mariners over the northern Gulf waters can expect thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally higher seas over the next few days. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will persist through the forecast period, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall information associated with a strong tropical wave moving across the northern Leeward Islands. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough is helping to enhance a few showers and isolated thunderstorms in the southwest Caribbean waters, especially off Panama. High pressure north of the islands sustains fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, strong winds and rough seas today to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and nearby waters south of 23N, and then Hispaniola and SE Bahamas on Mon. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep-layer trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W into early this week. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola through tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information about the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, moving across the Leeward Islands. Abundant moisture, a surface trough and divergence aloft associated with an upper level trough over the eastern United States combine to generate numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms west of 70W. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning and higher seas near the strongest storms. Elsewhere, a broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Bahamas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the area, outside of the influence of the remnants of Dolly. However, fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-9 ft are found off Morocco and northern Mauritania. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms, strong winds and rough seas today to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico and nearby waters south of 23N, and then Hispaniola and SE Bahamas on Mon. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep- layer trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W into early this week. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola through tonight.. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC301537_C_KWBC_20260830153746_21889468-767-TWDAT.txt ****0000006507**** AXNT20 KNHC 301537 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall across the NE Caribbean: A strong tropical wave, the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, is producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 15N-21N between 58W-67W, including Puerto Rico eastward across the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to locally near-gale winds and 8-12 ft seas are associated with this wave from 18N-22N between 60W-65W. Satellite data and surface observations indicate that there are no signs of a closed surface circulation, and redevelopment is unlikely during the next day or two while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at about 20 kt. The system should bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the next couple of days. Rainfall amounts and the location of the highest totals will vary from island to island, as local topography will enhance orographic lift and support the heaviest rainfall. Please refer to your local weather agency for specific rainfall forecasts for your local area. Conditions may become more conducive for redevelopment by the middle of the week as the system reaches the southeastern Gulf of America and the system has a low chance of formation through 7 days Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W, south of 22N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 13N-15N between 33W-40W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south of 23N, moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 15N-21N between 58W-67W. See the Special Features section above for more information on this wave. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W, south of 2-N, moving westward near 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 11N between 77W-83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Mauritania at 20N16W southwestward to 10N29W. The ITCZ begins there and extends to 10N39W, where it breaks for the central Atlantic tropical wave. The ITCZ resumes at 09N43W and extends westward to coastal Guyana at 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10N-15N east of 21W and from 07N-11N between 45W-57W. Isolated moderate convection is also noted from 07N-10N between 15W-45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1014 mb low pressure about 100 NM south of the mouth of the Mississippi River is producing a cluster of thunderstorms in the north-central waters. Aside from gusty winds in thunderstorms, peak winds are around 20 kt and seas 4 ft. Elsewhere, winds across the Gulf are moderate or weaker with seas 1-3 ft. For the forecast, slow development of the low is possible over the next couple of days as it moves west or west-northwest across the northern basin. Regardless of development, mariners over the north-central and northwest Gulf can expect strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally higher seas early this week. There is a low chance of tropical formation of this low pressure over the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will persist through the forecast period, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall information associated with a strong tropical wave moving across the NE Caribbean. The pressure gradient from the Bermuda High north of the area along with the 1008 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean with seas 5-8 ft. Additionally, seas of 5-8 ft in NE swell are impacting the Anegada Passage. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-4 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly will move quickly westward and impact Hispaniola tonight and Monday, then eastern Cuba into Tue. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low will continue to force fresh to locally strong easterly trades and moderate to locally rough seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through the week, with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information about the strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, moving across the NE Caribbean. The Bermuda-Azores High extends as a ridge along 34N with a 1025 mb center at 34N54W and a second 1026 mb center at 34N32W. The pressure gradient from those to lower pressure over the ITCZ and monsoon trough is forcing only moderate to locally strong trades this morning with seas of 3-7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is also noted north of 25N between 73W-77W associated with a surface trough extending from 28N76W to beyond 31N74W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned remnants of Dolly will move quickly westward and impact Hispaniola tonight and Monday, then eastern Cuba into Tue, bringing similar conditions to waters S of 23N early this week. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep-layer trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W through Tue. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off Hispaniola through tonight. $$ Landsea/Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################