--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC090442_C_KWBC_20260909044313_38011292-1977-TWDAT.txt ****0000004472**** AXNT20 KNHC 090442 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave along 19W north of 03N is moving into the eastern Atlantic at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 17N and E of 24W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 51W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 61W from 19N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 58W and 64W. A central western tropical wave has its axis near 83W, south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the northern half of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, and continues southwestward to 10N32W. The ITCZ continues from 10N32W to 08N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries and E of 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends across the eastern waters from Venice, Florida to south-central Louisiana. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are active over the central and west-central Gulf north of the trough. Light to gentle winds are over the SE Gulf. Gentle winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf through the weekend, producing a weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low is centered between Panama and Jamaica, supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms over the northwest Caribbean between Cuba and Belize. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate are over the rest of basin, with the exception of the northwestern waters, where light to gentle winds are noted. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near-gale force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas will prevail over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse tonight in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from Bermuda to Fort Pierce Florida. A pre-frontal trough extends from 29N61W to 20N72W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the trough N of 25N between 53W-66W. The subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the basin, anchored by 1027 mb high pressure near 34N33W, and extending westward through the northwest Bahamas. This pattern is supporting gentle breezes and 3-5 ft seas along the ridge axis through the Bahamas, and moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-9 ft seas south of the ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid week. This will cause winds to increase slightly S of 21N through Thu. The stationary front will linger near 31N through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through tonight. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC090830_C_KWBC_20260909083120_21889468-1715-TWDAT.txt ****0000004302**** AXNT20 KNHC 090830 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 20W north of 03N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 17N and E of 23W. A tropical wave has its axis near 53W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 64W from 19N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 60W and 64W. A central western tropical wave has its axis near 84W, south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N17W, and continues southwestward to 10N32W. The ITCZ continues from 10N32W to 09N51W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 33W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends across the eastern waters. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the SW Gulf as well as south of the Florida panhandle. Light too gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Slight seas dominate the Gulf waters. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf through the weekend, producing a weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong to near gale force winds, and rough seas, prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters, except for light to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near-gale force, through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas will prevail over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Fresh to strong winds will pulse tonight in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N62W to central Florida. Moderate winds are found N of the front. A surface trough extends from 29N61W to E Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of 27N within 180 nm E of the trough. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 25N and W of 60W. The remainder of the waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 31N45W. Light to gentle winds are over the waters S of the monsoon trough and E of 30W. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. Moderate to rough seas prevail E of 40W, and S of 20N between 40W and 61W. Moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward along about 26N to the NW Bahamas will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid week. This will cause winds to increase slightly S of 21N through Thu. A stationary front will linger over the NW waters through mid week before lifting northward. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC091649_C_KWBC_20260909165017_38011292-2028-TWDAT.txt ****0000004469**** AXNT20 KNHC 091649 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 21W from 02N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N and E of 27W. A tropical wave has its axis near 56W from 03N to 20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N to 17N between 53W and 62W. A tropical wave has its axis near 66W from 19N southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the wave axis. A central western tropical wave has its axis near 87W, south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 21N17W, and continues southwestward to 09N37W. The ITCZ continues from 09N37W to 09N54W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 39W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A warm front extends from the W coast of FL to a 1017 mb low pressure near 28N88W, with a dissipating stationary front and frontal remnant trough extending from the low to the Upper TX coast. Scattered moderate convection is forming N of these features, as well as in the SE Gulf. In the SW Gulf, a surface trough is aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection S of 22N and W of 94W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere and slight seas dominate the Gulf waters. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist through the weekend, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong to near gale force winds, and rough seas, prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters, except for light to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the Windward Passage, in association with a surface trough over E Cuba. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near- gale force, through tonight before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas will prevail over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Thu morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N60W to central Florida. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are found N of the front. A surface trough extends from 32N57W to E Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of 27N within 200 nm E of the trough. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 25N and W of 60W. The remainder of the waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 34N33W. Light to gentle winds are over the waters S of the monsoon trough and E of 30W. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder of the discussion waters. Moderate to rough seas prevail E of 40W, and S of 20N between 40W and 61W. For the forecast west of 55W, as high pressure in the central Atlantic strengthens into late this week, winds will increase S of 21N to moderate to fresh through Thu. A stationary front will linger over the NW waters through tonight before lifting northward. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC092321_C_KWBC_20260909232219_38011292-2047-TWDAT.txt ****0000005549**** AXNT20 KNHC 092321 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is approaching the Cabo Verde Islands. Its axis is near 22W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 20W and 30W. A tropical wave is just E of the Lesser Antilles. Its axis is near 59W, south of 20N and extends into Guyana, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are related to the wave from 15N to 18N between 56W and 59W. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 68W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. This convective activity is affecting Dominican Republic. The tropical wave previously located near 87W is now generating showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Guatemala. More information in the eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP). ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W, and continues southwestward to 09N37W. The ITCZ extends from 09N37W to 09N56W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 30W and 56W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak 1017 mb low pressure is analyzed near 28N88W, with a dissipating stationary front to the E of the low center to near Tampa Bay, FL, and frontal trough extending from the low to near the Upper Texas coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over most of the Gulf, mainly N of 22N. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are over most of Florida. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. In the SW Gulf, a surface trough runs from 24N92W to 19N95W. Light to gentle winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf waters, with the exception of gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas over the Bay of Campeche due to the presence of the above mentioned trough. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist into the start of next week, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas, over the south-central Caribbean. Mainly moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas cover the remainder of the Caribbean waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the eastern Caribbean likely associated with the passage of a tropical wave. Convection has flared-up over most of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Gulf of Honduras. An upper-level low spinning just south of the Cayman Islands is enhancing this convective activity. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low will support strong winds, locally to near-gale force, offshore Colombia through tonight before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas will prevail over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Thu morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N56W and continues westward to near 29N70W where it becomes a stationary front to near 31N79W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are found N of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen N of 29N and E of the front to about 50W. A surface trough is south of the front, and extends from 29N62W across the central Bahamas and central Cuba. This feature is generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The remainder of the forecast waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered located SW of the Azores near 35N31W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa is promoting moderate to fresh NE winds N of 25N and E of 30W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh trade winds are observed over most of the tropical Atlantic, and S of 22N between 60W and 70W. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in general moderate across the Atlantic forecast waters. For the forecast west of 55W, as high pressure in the central Atlantic strengthens, winds will increase S of 21N to moderate to fresh through Thu. A stationary front will linger over the NW waters through tonight before lifting northward. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################