--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC300546_C_KWBC_20260930054732_31523192-5103-TWDAT.txt ****0000005463**** AXNT20 KNHC 300546 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Sep 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 81W, south of 19N into western Panama, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the W Caribbean between 76W and 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N16W to 14N30W to 10N36W. The ITCZ extends from 10N36W to 07N47W to 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 18W and 27W, and from 06N to 18N between 27W and 42W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak surface ridge is building over the eastern half of the Gulf tonight. A mid to upper level trough E of 90W continues to support a trough that extends across the Florida Keys to the SE basin near 25N86W and its associated scattered showers E of 88W. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to locally strong SE winds over the SE waters S of the trough axis where the strongest convection has been present. The scatterometer data also show moderate to fresh SE winds over the NW basin and similar winds of gentle to moderate speeds in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, gentle to moderate return flow will prevail, except moderate to locally fresh over the western Gulf tonight. Winds will increase to moderate to locally fresh across the basin by Wed evening as the pressure gradient tightens. The gradient will weaken from west to east by the end of the week into the weekend as a front approaches the western portion, possibly moving into the basin by the end of the weekend with weakening winds and subsiding seas ahead of it. Increasing winds and building seas are possibly behind the very slow moving front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active over the SW and NW Caribbean, associated with a mid to upper trough over the E Gulf of America extending a base over the W Caribbean. This shower activity is also associated with a tropical wave currently moving over the Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica offshore waters. A 1018 mb high SE of Bermuda and a bulding ridge over the E Gulf of America are supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, except for locally strong winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas basin-wide are mainly 4 to 6 ft, except to 7 ft in the SW basin and vicinity of the tropical wave. Seven ft seas are also offshore Colombia. For the forecast, the tropical wave and divergent flow aloft will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 75W over the next few days. High pressure north of the area will support pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the remainder of the week. Winds may weaken there by the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes slightly. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, except gentle to moderate in the SW Caribbean and the Lee of Cuba. Moderate seas will dominate the basin, except slight in areas of weakest winds, and also locally rough off NW Colombia late tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers continue to affect the Great Bahama Bank and the Bahamas as well as the offshores N of 27N between the Florida coast and 70W. Farther east and to the SE of Bermuda, a 1018 mb high is centered near 29N60W, which is supporting light to gentle winds N of 25N. South of 25N, a tighter gradient of pressure due to the passage of a wave over the W Caribbean, is supporting moderate to fresh easterlies along with moderate seas to 6 ft. Over the central subtropical waters, the remnants of Tropical Depression Fay are centered near 23N48W with a 1012 mb low generating scattered showers from 21N to 24N between 47W and 51W. Finally, over the E subtropical waters, a weak stationary front extends from 30N19W to 27N29W to 26N38W. However, no shower activity is associated with it as well as the remnant low of Gonzalo located near 22N28W, which is anchored by a 1015 mb low near 22N28W. Otherwise, except fresh to strong winds within 75 nm N semicircle of the Fay remnant low, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will persist across the Bahamas offshores as broad troughing lingers in the region through midweek. High pressure SE of Bermuda will continue to build over the western Atlantic and support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 25N Wed through Fri. Mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the basin by the weekend as the gradient weakens slightly. Meanwhile, the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay currently east of the offshore waters may move west of 55W by Wed night. Slight to moderate seas will dominate through the forecast period. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################