--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC030446_C_KWBC_20260803044648_47448518-9960-TWDAT.txt ****0000005026**** AXNT20 KNHC 030446 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Aug 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from 06N to 12N and between 30W and 37W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over northeastern Venezuela and the Lesser Antilles. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active S of 15N and W of 75W, including over Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and dives southwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure near 16N30W and then to 09N46W. Scattered moderate convection is active off the coast of Africa, generally from 04N to 11N and E of 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front is analyzed along much of the northern Gulf coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across much of the Gulf N of 24N. The Atlantic ridge extends east to west along roughly 23/24N, from the Florida Straits to the coast of Tamaulipas in northeast Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh SW to W winds north of 25N where seas are 3-5 ft, and gentle to moderate breezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate winds through the week. The exceptions will be fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period, as well as the far northern Gulf, where a cold front approaching the coast will help to induce moderate to fresh W to SW winds through Mon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over the eastern Gulf, and over the central Gulf N of 25N between 87W and 92W early this week as a mid to upper-level trough and a cold front approach the Gulf coast. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The westward-building subtropical high pressure system positioned over the central Atlantic forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are impacting the NW Caribbean waters as well as near the Windward Passage as they propagate southwestward off of Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin through much of the week. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, near 82W is helping to enhance thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean. The wave will move inland Central America late tonight into early Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Favorable upper-level conditions and abundant tropical moisture combine to produce scattered moderate convection from Cuba across the Bahamas to Bermuda. Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 33N56W, supporting fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft north of 28N and west of 75W, as well as along the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Another area of fresh to strong NE winds is confirmed by scatterometer data in between the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the remaining tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic to South Florida will change little through Tue, then lift N to central Florida on Wed and N of 31N on Thu. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a cold front moving through the southeastern U.S. will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, along with scattered thunderstorms over the majority of the area. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC031000_C_KWBC_20260803100028_49676782-29-TWDAT.txt ****0000004380**** AXNT20 KNHC 031000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Aug 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 07N to 11N between 32W and 37W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, from Puerto Rico southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 62W and 70W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, southward from the Gulf of Honduras into Central America, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Cayman Islands through the Gulf of Honduras and into Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and dives southwestward to a 1012 mb low pressure near 15N33W and then to 09N45W. The ITCZ has formed from 09N46W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N E of 19W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front is analyzed along much of the northern Gulf coast. Scattered moderate convection is confined to the basin N of 26N. The Atlantic ridge extends east to west along roughly 23N, from the Florida Straits westward. This pattern is supporting moderate SW winds in the NE basin north of 25N where seas are 3-5 ft, and gentle to moderate breezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle winds and slight seas this week. Pulses of fresh winds will occur of the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Thunderstorms will prevail into mid-week in the northeast basin as a cold front settles over the Florida Panhandle and a mid- and upper-level trough sets up over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection impacting the basin. The westward-building subtropical high pressure system positioned over the central Atlantic is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin this week. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds ands seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep-layer trough extending down the eastern United States toward western Cuba is leading aiding in broad ascent, combining with abundant tropical moisture to induce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection N of Cuba and W of 70W, including waters in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 33N56W, supporting fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft north of 29N and west of 76W. Another area of fresh to strong NE winds is in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds and seas prevail across much of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds offshore NE Florida will continue into tonight before diminishing as high pressure builds west toward the region. An upper-level trough along the eastern coast of the U.S. will prolong scattered thunderstorms offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas early this week. Elsewhere, locally strong trades will continue to pulse each night offshore Hispaniola. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC031646_C_KWBC_20260803164653_47448518-6-TWDAT.txt ****0000004677**** AXNT20 KNHC 031646 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Aug 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is depicted at this time in association with this wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 69W, from eastern Hispaniola southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 63W and 70W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 89W, southward from the Gulf of Honduras into the Eastern Pacific. More information about this wave can be found in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP). ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N E of 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front is analyzed along much of the northern Gulf coast. Scattered moderate convection is confined to the eastern side of the basin W of 25N. High pressure north of the area is supporting light and variable winds across most of the basin, except for moderate SW winds over the NE Gulf and moderate E winds over the Bay of Campeche. Seas 3 to 5 ft prevail over the NE Gulf and the Bay of Campeche, elsewhere, 1 to 3 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate, promoting gentle winds and slight seas this week. Pulses of fresh winds will occur of the Yucatan Peninsula each night, locally strong Wed night, along with moderate seas. Thunderstorms will prevail into mid- week in the northeast basin as a cold front settles over the Florida Panhandle and a mid- and upper-level trough sets up over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Tropical Waves section above for information on convection impacting the basin. The westward-building subtropical high pressure system positioned over the central Atlantic is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin this week, with rough seas there. Fresh to locally strong winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh winds may pulse through the Windward Passage at times. Otherwise, mainly moderate or weaker winds ands seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep-layer trough extending down the eastern United States toward western Cuba is leading aiding in broad ascent, combining with abundant tropical moisture to induce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection N of Cuba and W of 71W, including waters in the vicinity of the Bahamas. Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 33N57W, supporting fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft north of 30N and west of 77.5W. Another area of fresh to strong NE winds is in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, mainly moderate winds and seas prevail across much of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds offshore NE Florida will continue into early afternoon before diminishing as high pressure builds west toward the region. An upper-level trough along the eastern coast of the U.S. will prolong scattered thunderstorms offshore Florida and in the vicinity of the Bahamas early this week. Elsewhere, locally strong trades will continue to pulse each night offshore Hispaniola. A low level trough may bring fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas from east to west across the central waters by mid-week, reaching the NW waters by the end of the week. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################