--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC040357_C_KWBC_20260604035808_9109880-4765-TWDAT.txt ****0000005835**** AXNT20 KNHC 040357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Jun 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1033 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower pressures in northwest Africa result in strong to near gale- force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones. Gale- force winds are expected from 04/1500 to 05/0000 UTC with severe gusts. These winds will produce rough seas. Similar conditions will persist into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 45W and 53W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 62W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. No deep convection is noted over the Caribbean waters. The wave is enhancing the shower and thunderstorm activity across NE South America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 06N23W to 03N34W and from 03N37W to 02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 12N and east of 22W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from southern Florida to SE Louisiana. A surface trough extends from 27N88W to the eastern Bay of Campeche. A tight pressure gradient behind the front forces fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas are present north of a line from western Cuba to southern Texas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf waters, east of 90W. For the forecast, the trough will track north-northwestward through Fri. Interaction between this trough and the front is going to sustain fresh to strong ENE to SE winds with moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Gulf, north of 25N through Fri evening. In addition, a persistent upper-level trough across the western Gulf will continue to enhance sporadic heavy showers and strong thunderstorms near the aforementioned trough and front through Fri night. Gusty winds with low visibility and frequent lightning will accompany the strong thunderstorms. After the low moves into Louisiana and the stationary front dissipates on Sat, the Atlantic Ridge should build westward across northern Florida into the Gulf, bringing moderate to locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas back to the entire Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1033 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores extends southwestward to the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the SW Caribbean, while fast- moving showers are passing across the NE Caribbean. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the area will weaken and shift east through Thu, allowing moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas to dominate much of the the Caribbean by Fri morning. The exception will be pulsing fresh to strong winds off Venezuela and in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Fri. Looking ahead, the Atlantic ridge will rebuild north of the area by Sun, supporting fresh winds and building seas across the central and northwestern Caribbean by Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the far northeast Atlantic. A stationary front extends from a 1014 mb low pressure near 32N71W to the NW Bahamas and southern Florida. Scattered showers are present ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and rough to locally very rough seas are found behind the front. Fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate seas are evident ahead of the front to 64W and north of 29N. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, the basin is being dominated by ridging centered around a 1033 mb high located at 35N33W, leading to moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough to very rough seas are active north of a stationary front extending southwestward from 31N71W to Miami, Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds are also active along the front between 30N and Bermuda. Winds and seas will diminish across the area through tomorrow night as the front dissipates and high pressure starts to build over the western Atlantic into next week. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC040900_C_KWBC_20260604090111_9109880-4793-TWDAT.txt ****0000005775**** AXNT20 KNHC 040900 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jun 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1031 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower pressures in northwest Africa result in strong to near gale- force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones. Gale- force winds are expected from 04/1500 to 05/0000 UTC with severe gusts. These winds will produce rough seas. Similar conditions will persist into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new eastern Atlantic tropical wave was analyzed near 17W south of 14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 06N to 09N between 13W and 18W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 47W and 55W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. No deep convection is noted over the Caribbean waters. The wave is enhancing the shower and thunderstorm activity across NE South America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N25W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 02N to 05N between 21W and 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weakening stationary front extends from southern Florida to SE Louisiana. A surface trough extends from 27N89W to the eastern Bay of Campeche. A tight pressure gradient behind the front forces fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas are present across the southeast Gulf. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf waters, east of 90W. For the forecast, pressure is falling over the central Gulf along the trough, and low pressure weak may form later today near 26N90W even as the front dissipates. This will enhance the strong winds and rough seas over the north-central Gulf this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms will continue today over the south-central and southeast Gulf, south of the front. Winds and seas will diminish starting Fri as the low dissipates to a remnant trough as it moves onshore over southwest Louisiana, and as a ridge builds from the western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf. Looking ahead, this pattern will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas into early next week, except for occasionally fresh to strong pulses off northwest Yucatan during the evenings. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores southwestward to the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the SW Caribbean, while fast- moving showers are passing across the NE Caribbean. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the area will weaken and shift east through Thu, allowing moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas to dominate much of the the Caribbean by Fri morning. The exception will be pulsing fresh to strong winds off Venezuela and in the Gulf of Honduras mainly at night through Fri. Looking ahead, the Atlantic ridge will rebuild north of the area by Sun, supporting fresh winds and building seas across the central and northwestern Caribbean by Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the far northeast Atlantic. A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure near 32N71W to the central Bahamas and southern Florida. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are present along of the front. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and rough seas in NE swell are found behind the front. Fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are evident wihtin 240 nm ahead of the front north of 29N. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, the basin is being dominated by ridging centered around a 1031 mb high located at 34N33W, leading to moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will stall today then dissipate Fri into Sat, as high pressure builds across the area. This pattern will allow gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas into early next week. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC041652_C_KWBC_20260604165315_9109880-4824-TWDAT.txt ****0000006291**** AXNT20 KNHC 041652 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jun 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1031 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower pressures in northwest Africa result in strong to near gale- force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones. Scatterometer data from 1014 UTC today showed strong to near gale force winds occurring off the coast of Morocco. Gale-force winds are expected to occur through 05/0000 UTC with severe gusts. These winds will produce rough seas. Similar conditions will persist into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 17W south of 14N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 06N to 10N between 13W and 19W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 12N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 36W and 42W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W, south of 14N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 47W and 55W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 64W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. No deep convection is noted over the Caribbean waters. The wave is enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity across NE South America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 03N37W where it is broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ then resumes from 02N40W to 01N50W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within 150 nm of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weakening stationary front and frontal remnant trough extend from the Florida Straits to SE Louisiana. A tight pressure gradient behind the front forces fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas are present across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. Divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture result in numerous moderate and isolated strong convection over the Gulf waters east of 90W. For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas persist north of a weakening stationary front over the SE waters. Pressure is falling over the central Gulf along a trough, and low pressure weak may form later today near 26N90W even as the front dissipates. This will enhance the strong winds and rough seas over the north-central Gulf this afternoon and evening. Meanwhile, scattered thunderstorms will continue today over the south-central and southeast Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish starting Fri as the low dissipates to a remnant trough as it moves onshore over southwest Louisiana, and as a ridge builds from the western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf. This pattern will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas into early next week, except for occasionally fresh to strong pulses off northwest Yucatan during the evenings. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure system centered SW of the Azores southwestward to the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the north-central and eastern Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean, along the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The exceptions will be fresh to strong pulses off Venezuela tonight, and in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds and building are possible over the northwest and north- central Caribbean late Sat through early next week as the Atlantic ridge rebuilds north of area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the far northeast Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N67W to the central Bahamas and the Florida Straits. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are present along and just ahead of the front, while scattered moderate convection is occurring over the central and southern Bahamas. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and rough seas in NE swell are found behind the front. Fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate seas are evident N of 27N and W of 65W to the front. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, the basin is being dominated by ridging centered around a 1031 mb high located SW of the Azores, leading to moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front reaches from 31N68W to the central Bahamas, then is stationary to the Florida Straits. Rough seas will linger over the northern waters behind the front today. The front will stall today then dissipate Fri into Sat, as high pressure builds across the area. This pattern will allow gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas into early next week. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################