--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2025-11-24 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC240547_C_KWBC_20251124054736_29294990-668-TWDAT.txt ****0000005372**** AXNT20 KNHC 240547 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Nov 24 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 08N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N35W, and then runs west-northwestward to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring E of 31W between 03N and 13N, and also near the coast of Guyana. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak stationary front extends from near Apalachicola, FL across the N Gulf to the TX coast near Port Aransas. Widely scattered showers are seen near and in the vicinity of the front. Otherwise, weak ridging continues to dominate the basin. Recent scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh SE to E winds across much of the Gulf W of 90W, and gentle to moderate E to NE winds E of 90W. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf. For the forecast, a frontal boundary remains stationary from the Florida Panhandle to Lake Jackson, Texas. The front will lift northeastward as a warm front tonight as low pressure develops over the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast tonight through Mon night supported by the gradient between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early Wed, then move into the northwest Gulf. The cold front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial frontal boundary. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak upper level trough and convergent surface winds in the NW Caribbean is leading to scattered moderate convection near the coasts of Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, as well as more isolated convection near the SW coast of Jamaica. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is supporting more scattered moderate convection generally S of 12N and W of 75W. Outside of convection, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the SE US and the Colombia low sustains fresh to strong NE winds off the NW coast of Colombia, with rough seas also analyzed in the region. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas persist across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will force fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning through mid week. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will also support moderate to fresh breezes along with moderate seas through the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An elongated surface trough persists over the central Atlantic from 31N48W to near 20N50W. A broad upper level low is also centered near 26N49W, and is aiding in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 18N to 31N between 42W and 51W. A pair of surface troughs are also analyzed over the eastern Atlantic, one from 28N21W to 18N27W and the other from 31N10W to near 17N22W. Another upper level low appears to be centered near 24N25W, with these three features resulting in widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms E of 28W between 13N and 29N. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N71W and extends to the FL coast near Cape Canaveral. No notable convection is associated with this front. Otherwise, a trade wind regime persists across much of the Atlantic, with recent scatterometer data indicating moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas confirmed by altimeter data prevailing across much of the Atlantic E of 50W, as well as S of 20N between the Lesser Antilles and 50W. Gentle to moderate NE winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends from 31N73W to Palm Bay, Florida and will reach from near Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off Carolina coast following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas through Fri night. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC240558_C_KWBC_20251124055836_29294990-670-TWDAT.txt ****0000005644**** AXNT20 KNHC 240558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Nov 24 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 08N16W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 05N35W, and then runs west-northwestward to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring E of 31W between 03N and 13N, and also near the coast of Guyana. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Satellite imagery shows a fog bank forming along the Gulf coast of Florida from the Big Bend down to near Venice, FL as of 0550 UTC. Mariners should be aware of the potential for reduced visibility within 20-30 nm of the coast in these aforementioned areas. A weak stationary front extends from near Apalachicola, FL across the N Gulf to the TX coast near Port Aransas. Widely scattered showers are seen near and in the vicinity of the front. Otherwise, weak ridging continues to dominate the basin. Recent scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh SE to E winds across much of the Gulf W of 90W, and gentle to moderate E to NE winds E of 90W. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf. For the forecast, a frontal boundary remains stationary from the Florida Panhandle to Lake Jackson, Texas. The front will lift northeastward as a warm front tonight as low pressure develops over the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast tonight through Mon night supported by the gradient between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early Wed, then move into the northwest Gulf. The cold front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial frontal boundary. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak upper level trough and convergent surface winds in the NW Caribbean is leading to scattered moderate convection near the coasts of Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, as well as more isolated convection near the SW coast of Jamaica. In the SW Caribbean, the East Pacific monsoon trough is supporting more scattered moderate convection generally S of 12N and W of 75W. Outside of convection, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the SE US and the Colombia low sustains fresh to strong NE winds off the NW coast of Colombia, with rough seas also analyzed in the region. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas persist across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will force fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning through mid week. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will also support moderate to fresh breezes along with moderate seas through the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An elongated surface trough persists over the central Atlantic from 31N48W to near 20N50W. A broad upper level low is also centered near 26N49W, and is aiding in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 18N to 31N between 42W and 51W. A pair of surface troughs are also analyzed over the eastern Atlantic, one from 28N21W to 18N27W and the other from 31N10W to near 17N22W. Another upper level low appears to be centered near 24N25W, with these three features resulting in widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms E of 28W between 13N and 29N. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, a cold front enters the discussion waters near 31N71W and extends to the FL coast near Cape Canaveral. No notable convection is associated with this front. Otherwise, a trade wind regime persists across much of the Atlantic, with recent scatterometer data indicating moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas confirmed by altimeter data prevailing across much of the Atlantic E of 50W, as well as S of 20N between the Lesser Antilles and 50W. Gentle to moderate NE winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends from 31N73W to Palm Bay, Florida and will reach from near Bermuda to Sebastian Inlet, Florida by early Mon. The eastern portion of the front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off Carolina coast following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas through Fri night. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC241027_C_KWBC_20251124102838_29294990-690-TWDAT.txt ****0000005189**** AXNT20 KNHC 241027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Nov 24 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1025 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 08N16W. The ITCZ extends from 08N16W to 07N35W and to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring E of 31W between 03N and 13N. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to SE Texas. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. A tightening pressure gradient supports moderate to fresh southerly winds off southern Texas and Tamaulipas, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere south of 25N, gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail, while lighter winds and slight seas are noted in the northern and eastern Gulf waters. Visibility has diminished to 1 nm in the nearshore waters of Florida, mainly from Panama City to Port Charlotte. Mariners should use caution. For the forecast, the aforementioned front is expected to become a warm front and lift northeastward this morning as low pressure develops over the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast through tonight supported by the gradient between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early Wed, then move into the northwest Gulf. The cold front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial frontal boundary. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras and off Costa Rica, Panama and NW Colombia. A scatterometer satellite pass from a few hours ago showed fresh to strong NE winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft, as confirmed by a recent altimeter pass. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge north of the islands and a lower pressures in NW Colombia will sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean through late this week. Seas will peak around 12 ft. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh breezes along with moderate seas through the period. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, sustaining strong winds and rough seas behind the boundary. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from near Bermuda to the Space Coast of Florida and a few showers are seen near the boundary. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a weak pressure gradient. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are found in these waters. Farther east, a surface trough is observed along 48W and north of 20N, and scattered showers are present north of 20N and between 40W and 50W. A couple of surface troughs are evident in the eastern Atlantic, producing scattered showers. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1028 mb high pressure system south of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 20N and between 30W and 48W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas are found north of 28N and east of 30W. Farthest east, fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas are found from 10N to 19N and east of 25W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 20N and west of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the aforementioned front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off Carolina coast following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas through Fri night. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC241639_C_KWBC_20251124163930_16515500-262-TWDAT.txt ****0000004989**** AXNT20 KNHC 241639 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Nov 24 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1638 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11.5N16W and continues southwestward to 10N18W. The ITCZ extends from 10N18W to 10N34W and to 10N53W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring E of 32.5W between 05N and 15N. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to near 28N89W, then it transition to a warm front to near Galveston, TX. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. A tightening pressure gradient supports fresh to locally strong southerly winds off southern Texas and Tamaulipas, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere south of 25N, gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail, while lighter winds and slight seas are noted in the northern and eastern Gulf waters. For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to 28N89W. The front is expected to become a warm front and lift northeastward this morning as low pressure develops over the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast through tonight supported by the gradient between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early Wed, then move into the northwest Gulf. The cold front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by late Thu, followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the initial frontal boundary. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras and off Costa Rica, Panama and NW Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail in the south- central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 7-9 ft, as confirmed by a recent altimeter pass. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of the islands and a lower pressures in NW Colombia will sustain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean through late this week. Seas will peak around 12 ft. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along with moderate seas through the period. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, sustaining strong winds and rough seas behind the boundary. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from south of Bermuda to near 27N78W, then it transition to a stationary front that extends to near Coco Beach, Florida and a few showers are seen near the boundary. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a weak pressure gradient. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are found in these waters. Farther east, a weak 1016 mb low pressure is near 28N48W. A surface trough extends from this low to 21N47W. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 20N and between 43W and 46W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1029 mb high pressure system south of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 15N and between 30W and 46W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas are found north of 27N and east of 30W. Farthest east, fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas are found from 11N to 19N and east of 26W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the aforementioned front will continue eastward and reach from 30N55W to 27N70W by early Tue, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift back north as a warm front. High pressure will shift eastward off Carolina coast following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh northeast winds and building seas through Fri night. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC241939_C_KWBC_20251124193931_16515500-280-TWDAT.txt ****0000005436**** AXNT20 KNHC 241939 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Nov 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12.5N16.5W and continues southwestward to 11N18.5W. The ITCZ extends from 11N18.5W to 09N127W to 10.5N35W and to 09N48.5W to 10.5N56W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring east of 30W from 09N and 28N. Similar convection is noted from 07N to 12.5N between 49W and 61W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak stationary front extends from just north of Tampa Bay, Florida to near the SE tip of Louisiana. No significant convection is noted over the basin on conventional visible and infrared satellite imagery. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds are noted north of 23N and west of 95W due to a locally tight pressure gradient in the area. Gentle to moderate SE-S winds dominate the remainder of the basin, except light to gentle in the NE Gulf. Seas are 4-7 ft near the moderate to fresh winds, 1-2 ft in the NE Gulf, and 2-4 ft across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, a stationary front extending across the northern Gulf will lift northward by tonight as low pressure develops over the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast through tonight supported by the gradient between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early Wed, then move into the NW Gulf. The cold front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by Thu night into Fri, followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the frontal boundary. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft continues to support widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras and off Costa Rica, Panama, and NW Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail in the central Caribbean, strongest offshore northern Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, as confirmed by an earlier altimeter pass. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and mainly moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in NW Colombia will sustain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean through late this week. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt, and highest seas of 9 to 11 ft are expected offshore Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along with moderate seas through the period. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong winds and rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from near Bermuda to the near Cape Canaveral, Florida. No significant convection is noted near the front. Seas of 4-6 ft in mainly NW swell are noted north of the front. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the waters north of 19N and west of 50W, along with 3-4 ft seas. Farther east, a weak 1016 mb low pressure is near 29.5N48W. A surface trough extends from this low to 21N47W. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 21N between 43W and the trough axis. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds are found north of 26N and east of the trough to around 40W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1028 mb high pressure system near the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 15N and between 30W and 46W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas are found north of 26N between 20W and 35W. Farthest southeast, fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas are found from 10N to 20N and east of 28W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the cold front will continue eastward and reach from 31N52W to 27N63W by Tue morning, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift north. High pressure located off the Carolinas will shift eastward following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building seas through Fri night. Looking ahead, a tightened pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing winds and building seas across much of the forecast area during the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################