--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC130608_C_KWBC_20261013060943_31523192-6407-TWDAT.txt ****0000005654**** AXNT20 KNHC 130608 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 32W, from 10N to 20N, moving westward near 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed at the wave axis near 17N32W. Fresh to strong winds are approximately within 390 nm NE semicircle, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is present from 15N to 22N between 23W and 31W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N to 16N between 30W and 37W. Environmental conditions appear, at best, only marginally conducive for development of this system before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development on Tuesday. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next day or two across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and some flooding is possible there as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and through next 7 days. A tropical wave is analyzed near 45W, from 10N to 20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 09N to 16N between 36W and 46W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 13N35W to 11N48W. The ITCZ extends from 11N48W to 10N55W to 10N62W. See information on the convection in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weakening stationary front extends from SW Florida near 25N81W to the Yucatan adjacent waters near 22N90W to 23N93W. A 1018 mb high is located over the Mississippi/Alabama coastal waters, which is providing gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the eastern half of the Gulf S of 27N, and E to SE winds of the same speed W of 90W. Seas basin-wide are mainly slight with some areas reaching 4 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate through Wed. High pressure building in the wake of the front over the north-central Gulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Fri night, and reach from SW Florida to the far SW Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front, with strong gales possible off the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos Fri night through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and tstms are over the lee of Cuba adjacent waters, in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. A middle-level low is supporting scattered to isolated showers over the eastern half of the basin. This low aloft reflects at the surface on a trough that is moving across western Hispaniola. Otherwise, the passage of a cold front N of the area along with low pressure E of the Bahamas are supporting a weak pressure gradient across the region, thus resulting in moderate or weaker trade winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh winds offshore Venezuela in the south-central Caribbean. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be active across the central Caribbean through tonight, associated with an upper level low. Fresh winds across the south-central Caribbean will diminish through tonight as high pressure north of the region shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will persist through midweek across the Caribbean, then increase again later in the week as high pressure builds north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N70W to Freeport in the Bahamas where it stalls. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from 29N70W to 25N76W, which is supporting isolated showers ahead of it to approximately 67W. Farther east, a 1014 mb low is centered near 26N66W. however it lacks convection. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic are under the influence of the Azores ridge with a weakening stationary front that extends from 31N32W to 27N51W. A surface trough connects to the tail of this front and continues to 22N54W. Further east, there is another trough near 39W, however all these features lack convection. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are N of 20N W of 44W. East of 44W, winds are fresh to strong in the NE semicircle of a low connected to a tropical wave near 32W. Fresh to locally strong winds are also ongoing between the coast of W Africa and the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue moving east tonight, stall on Tue, then dissipate through Wed. A second reinforcing front will move southward into the waters east of 75W Tue into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC131023_C_KWBC_20261013102344_31523192-6427-TWDAT.txt ****0000005077**** AXNT20 KNHC 131023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 33W, from 10N to 20N, moving westward near 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed at the wave axis near 18N32W. Fresh to strong winds are approximately within 390 nm NE semicircle, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is present from 12N to 25N between 21W and 35W. Further development of this system appears unlikely as the low moves slowly northward to north-northwestward and encounters stronger upper-level winds today and tonight. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected to continue today across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands with some flooding possible there. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and through next 7 days. A tropical wave is analyzed near 45W, from 10N to 20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 21N between 35W and 46W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 11N47W. The ITCZ extends from 11N47W to 10N55W to 09N61W. See information on the convection in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1018 mb high is located near 29N88W, which is providing gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the eastern half of the Gulf S of 27N, and E to SE winds of the same speed W of 90W. Seas basin- wide are mainly slight with some areas reaching 4 ft. For the forecast, High pressure building across the basin will support E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. A cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Fri night, and reach from southwest Florida to the far southwest Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible off the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos Fri night through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and tstms are over the lee of Cuba adjacent waters, in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. A middle-level low is supporting scattered to isolated showers over the eastern half of the basin. This low aloft reflects at the surface on a trough that is moving across the central Caribbean. Otherwise, the passage of a weakening cold front N of the area along with low pressure E of the Bahamas are supporting a weak pressure gradient across the region, thus resulting in moderate or weaker trade winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh winds offshore Venezuela in the south-central Caribbean. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be active across the central Caribbean through today, associated with an upper level low. Fresh winds across the south-central Caribbean will diminish by this morning as high pressure north of the region shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will persist through mid week across the Caribbean, then increase again later in the week as high pressure builds north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening cold front extends from 31N69W to 25N80W. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from 30N68W to 27N79W, which is supporting scattered showers ahead of it to approximately 67W. Farther east, a 1012 mb low is centered near 26N67W. However, it lacks convection. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic are under the influence of the Azores ridge with a weakening stationary front that extends from 31N34W to 29N48W. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N51W to 23N55W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are N of 20N W of 44W. East of 44W, winds are fresh to strong in the NE semicircle of a low connected to a tropical wave near 32W. Fresh to strong winds are also ongoing between the coast of W Africa and the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate through Wed. A second reinforcing front will move southward into the waters east of 75W into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC131654_C_KWBC_20261013165447_31523192-6456-TWDAT.txt ****0000005643**** AXNT20 KNHC 131654 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 33W, from 10N to 20N, moving westward near 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is along the northern portion of the wave near 19N33W as a recent scatterometer satellite data pass indicated. A tight gradient to its north is producing fresh to strong east winds from 17N to 24N between 28W and 35W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft (2.5 to 3 m). Satellite imagery shows moderate to isolated strong convection from 19N to 25N between 30W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 13N to 18N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 46W from 10N to 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 11N to 18N between 42W and 46W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 13N16W to 19N33W to 11N47W. The ITCZ extends from 11N47W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 25W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough between 38W-42W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1018 mb high is located near 29N88W. Its associated gradient is providing gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across the eastern half of the Gulf S of 27N, and east to southeast winds of the same speed W of 90W. Seas basin-wide are in the range of 2 to 4 ft, with slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft from 22N to 26N between 87W and 91W. For the forecast, high pressure building across the basin will support east to southeast winds and moderate seas from the Straits of Florida to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Fri night, and reach from southwest Florida to the far southwest Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front, with gale-force winds possible off the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos Fri night through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail-end of a narrow upper-level trough stretches southwestward from the Bahamas to the northwestern Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen north of 19n west of 80W, and south of 19N west of 85W, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. A mid to upper-level low over the eastern Caribbean continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms east of about 76W. This feature reflects at the surface as a trough that is moving westward across the central Caribbean. Otherwise, the passage of a weakening cold front north of the area along with low pressure east of the Bahamas are supporting a weak pressure gradient across the region, thus resulting in moderate or weaker trade winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh winds offshore Venezuela in the south- central Caribbean. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be active across the central Caribbean through today, associated with an upper-level low. Fresh eas to southeast winds will persist north of 13N south and southwest of Jamaica through midweek, north of broad low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean. Trade winds will increase along with building seas over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal trough extends from near 31N67W to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm northwest of the trough. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the Straits of Florida, and from 24N to 27N between 64W and 69W. Farther east, a weak trough is analyzed from near 29N53W to 24N57W. No significant convection is occurring with these feature. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic are under the influence of the Azores ridge. A weakening stationary front extends from 31N34W to near 30N43W. A weak pressure is generally allowing for light to gentle winds north of 18N west of 50W. Seas with these winds are 3 to 5 ft in north to northeast swell east of 65W, and in northeast to east swell west of 65W. Higher east winds of fresh to strong speeds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are near the east Atlantic tropical wave as described above under the Tropical Waves section. Fresh to strong winds are also ongoing between the west coast of Africa and the Canary Islands as noted in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate through Wed. A second reinforcing front will move southward into the waters east of 75W into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC132351_C_KWBC_20261013235135_4522426-6508-TWDAT.txt ****0000005830**** AXNT20 KNHC 132351 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, from 10N to 24N, moving westward near 10 kt. A tight gradient between the wave and high pressure to its north is producing fresh to strong easterly winds from 18N to 24N between 27W and 36W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 11 ft (2.5 to 3.5 m). Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 15N to 25N between 25W and 33W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 10N to 18N. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W from 10N to 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. An upper level trough to the N and NW of the wave is shearing associated convection off to the east of the wave. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 22N between 38W and 48W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 18.5N33W to 10N49W. The ITCZ extends from 10N49W to 09N60W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03.5N to 11N between 25W and 35W, and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 50W and 60W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1020 mb high is centered over northern GA and extends a broad ridge south-southwestward across the basin, behind the dissipated cold front in the Straits of Florida. The associated pressure gradient is providing gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across the eastern half of the Gulf S of 28N, and east to southeast winds of the same speed W of 90W. Seas basin- wide are in the range of 2 to 4 ft, with slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft S of 25N between 84W and 90W. Fair skies prevail. For the forecast, high pressure over the north-central Gulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. A cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Fri night, and reach from southwest Florida to the far southwest Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible off the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos late Fri night into Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail-end of a narrow upper-level trough stretches southwestward from the NW Bahamas across the northwestern Caribbean, and is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Gulf of Honduras northward to 20N and west of 80W, and across Central America. A mid to upper- level low over the Windward Passage continues to support scattered showers and thunderstorms across the basin between 62W and 76W. This feature reflects at the surface as a trough that is moving westward across the central Caribbean, while a 1010 mb low center has formed near 12.5N78W. Otherwise, the passage of a weakening cold front north of the area along with low pressure east of the Bahamas are supporting a weak pressure gradient across the region, resulting in moderate or weaker trade winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh winds across the central Caribbean where the most concentrated convection is occurring. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain active across the central Caribbean through tonight, associated with an upper level low. Fresh E to SE winds will persist north of 13N south and southwest of Jamaica through mid week, north of broad low pressure over the southwest Caribbean. Trade winds will increase along with building seas over the south- central Caribbean as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal trough extends from near 31N65W to the central Bahamas. Scattered showers are within 90 nm northwest of the trough. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the Straits of Florida, and from 25N to 28N between 64W and 67W. Farther east, a weak trough is analyzed from near 30N51W to 24N58W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm either side of this feature. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic are under the influence of the Azores ridge. A weak pressure is generally allowing for light to gentle winds north of 18N west of 50W. Seas with these winds are 3 to 5 ft in north to northeast swell east of 65W, and in northeast to east swell west of 65W. Higher east winds of fresh to strong speeds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are near the east Atlantic tropical wave as described above under the Tropical Waves section. Fresh to strong winds are also ongoing between the west coast of Africa and the Canary Islands as noted in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass. For the forecast west of 55W, a few thunderstorms are active along a trough reaching from south of Bermuda to the central Bahamas. A cold front front will move southward into the waters east of 75W into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. Looking ahead, a stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force NE winds and rough seas to 12 ft will follow the front. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################