--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC140608_C_KWBC_20261014060838_4522426-6533-TWDAT.txt ****0000004366**** AXNT20 KNHC 140608 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 35W, from 10N to 22N, moving westward near 10 kt. A tight gradient between the wave and high pressure to its north is producing fresh to strong easterly winds from 21N to 26N between 28W and 36W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 11 ft (2.5 to 3.5 m). Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 18N to 26N between 27W and 32W. A tropical wave is near 48W, from 10N to 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 21N between 41W and 49W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 19N34W to 12N48W. The ITCZ extends from 11N52W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 11N between 25W and 36W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1018 mb high is centered over southern Alabama and extends a broad ridge south-southwestward across the basin. Recent scatterometer data show gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across the eastern half of the Gulf S of 28N, and east to southeast winds of the same speed W of 90W. Seas basin-wide are in the range of 1 to 5 ft. Fair skies prevail. For the forecast, high pressure over the north-central Gulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. A cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Fri night, and reach from southwest Florida to the far southwest Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible off the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos late Fri night into Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle-level low is supporting widely scattered showers in the lee side of Cuba adjacent waters, and in the Gulf of Honduras while an upper-level low over the eastern half of the Caribbean is supporting scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms over Hispaniola and its adjacent waters, including the Windward Passage and the Mona Passage. A recent scatterometer pass show fresh to strong ESE winds S of Haiti and in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, with seas fluctuating between 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be active across the central Caribbean through tonight, associated with an upper-level low. Fresh E to SE winds will persist north of 13N south and southwest of Jamaica through mid week, north of broad low pressure over the southwest Caribbean. Trade winds will increase along with building seas over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging anchored by a 1019 mb in North Carolina, and a 1018 mb high in southern Alabama is starting to build over the SW N Atlantic waters just N of the Bahamas and west of a couple of surface troughs that linger between 53W and 68W. The remainder subtropical central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High, which is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas to 6 ft between the coast of NW Africa and 26W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate to slight seas dominate elsewhere N of 20N and W of 26W. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move southward into the waters east of 75W into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC141007_C_KWBC_20261014100839_4522426-6549-TWDAT.txt ****0000004136**** AXNT20 KNHC 141007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 37W, from 10N to 20N, moving westward near 10 kt. A tight gradient between the wave and high pressure to its north is producing fresh to strong easterly winds across the northern half of the wave. Seas with these winds are 8 to 11 ft. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A tropical wave is near 54W, from 10N to 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is present at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 08N19W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N between 26W and 34W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1019 mb high is centered near 30N86W. Recent scatterometer data show gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across the eastern half of the Gulf S of 28N, and east to southeast winds of the same speed W of 90W. Seas basin-wide are in the range of 1 to 5 ft. Fair skies prevail. For the forecast, high pressure over the northeast Gulf will keep E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. A cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Fri night, and reach from southwest Florida to the far southwest Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible off the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos late Fri night into Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle-level low is supporting scattered showers in the lee side of Cuba adjacent waters, and in the Gulf of Honduras while an upper-level low over the eastern half of the Caribbean is supporting scattered showers and tstms over Hispaniola and its adjacent waters, including the Windward Passage and the Mona Passage. A recent scatterometer pass show fresh to strong ESE winds S of Haiti and in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, with seas fluctuating between 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will prevail across the eastern half of the basin today, associated with an upper-level low. Fresh E to SE winds will persist north of 13N south of Jamaica through today, north of broad low pressure over the southwest Caribbean. Trade winds will increase along with building seas over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging anchored by a 1019 mb in North Carolina, is building over the SW N Atlantic waters just N of the Bahamas. Scattered showers prevail along a trough that extends from 28N72W to 24N80W. To the east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 25N66W. The remainder subtropical central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High, which is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas to 6 ft between the coast of NW Africa and 26W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate to slight seas dominate elsewhere N of 20N and W of 26W. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move southward into the waters east of 75W today, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC141744_C_KWBC_20261014174500_21889468-5294-TWDAT.txt ****0000008260**** AXNT20 KNHC 141744 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 39W from 10N to 20N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered showers are west of the wave axis from 13N to 17N between 40W and 44W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along a position from 20N55W to 08N56W. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm west of the wave from 08N to 09N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to 08N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N31W to 06N45W and to near 08N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between 27W-33W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 18W-22W and between 24W-28W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A high pressure ridge extends from a 1020 mb high center that is over eastern Tennessee southwestward to the western Gulf while an old frontal boundary extends from the Straits of Florida to just west of the western tip of Cuba. Recent scatterometer satellite data along with buoy observations reveal mostly moderate east winds south of 27N east of 91W, and moderate to fresh east to southeast winds west of 91W. Light to gentle winds east to southeast winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for slightly lower seas of 2 to 4 ft over the northern Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Fri producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf Fri evening, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible over the west-central Gulf by Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by late Sat. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf trough Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-level low located south-southwest of the western tip of Cuba continues to sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of Cuba adjacent waters, and in the Gulf of Honduras while a mid to upper-level low over the central Caribbean continues to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola and its adjacent waters, including the waters just south of the Mona Passage. This activity reaches southward to near 14N and east of 75W to 66W. Latest scatterometer satellite data reveals a wide swath of fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the waters southwest of Haiti roughly from 14N to 18N between 72W and 77W. A container ship, with caller ID "OXK02"-Olivia Maersk, reported southeast winds of 35 kt near 17.5N75W at 15Z as a gust front racing to the northwest generated by the convective activity south of Hispaniola passed over it. A weak low of 1010 mb is analyzed in the southwestern Caribbean near 13N79W. A trough extends from the low north- northeastward to just south of Jamaica. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 11N to 17N between 75W and 79W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 75W. A 60 nm wide area of fresh to strong east to southeast winds is south of Haiti between 71W and 73W. Similar winds are just offshore the coast of Colombia between 73W and 74W. Recent scatterometer satellite data reveals moderate or weaker trades elsewhere, except for trades of moderate to fresh speeds north and northeast of the western Caribbean low pressure. Seas across the basin are mostly in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 4 to 6 ft from 11N to 18N between 76W and 80W and lower seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 15N between 64W and 85W and in the Gulf of Honduras and in the approaches to the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming weekend, with locally rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Moisture associated with a mid to upper-level low over the central Caribbean will reach the northwestern Caribbean on Thu, keeping the chances of showers and thunderstorms across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging anchored by a 1020 mb in eastern Tennessee reaches southward and southeastern to across the waters just north of the Bahamas. A trough, an old frontal boundary, extends from a 1014 mb low well north of the area near 35N55W southwestward to 31N62W, to 28N70W, to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 30 to 60 nm northwest of the trough west of 75W, and within 30 nm either side of the trough between 75W and 68W. To the east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 25N67W, with a trough extending northeastward to 31N58W, and another trough extending from the low southwestward to near 22N71W. An area of scattered moderate convection is evident over the north-central waters north of about 28N and between 45W and 49W. This activity is ahead of an upper shortwave trough that is approaching from the NW. Over the eastern Atlantic, a weak 1013 mb low is near 20N35W as detected by a couple of recent scatterometer satellite data passes. A trough extends from the low north- northwestward to 28N38W. A small mid to upper-level low moving west-southwestward is seen in water vapor imagery near 25N41W while a larger upper- level low moving westward is seen near 19N51W. Mostly mid to upper-level clouds broken to overcast clouds are present to the east and northeast of these features. Embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 23N to 28N between 30W and the trough that extends from the 1013 mb low. A tight gradient between the trough and high pressure to its north has resulted in an area of fresh to strong east to southeast winds that covers the water roughly from 20N to 26N between 30W and 33W, and also from 23N to 26N between 33W and 37W. Seas are in the range of 8 to 11 ft within this area of winds. The remainder subtropical central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High, which is generally supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds and moderate seas to 6 ft between the coast of NW Africa and 24W, including the waters adjacent to the Canary Islands. Seas to a maximum of around 6 ft are with these winds as indicated by an overnight altimeter satellite data pass. Moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere north of 20N and west of 24W. For the forecast west of 55W, moisture associated with the scattered shower and thunderstorm activity that is northwest of the trough, the old frontal boundary, that extends from 31N62W to the Straits of Florida will advect northward through at least Thu. A cold front will reach waters east of northeast Florida on Fri, with little change in winds and seas. A stronger cold front is expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, then reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC142009CCA_C_KWBC_20261014201028_38011292-5498-TWDAT.txt ****0000008370**** AXNT20 KNHC 142009 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026 Corrected Atlantic section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 39W from 10N to 20N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered showers are west of the wave axis from 13N to 17N between 40W and 44W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along a position from 20N55W to 08N56W. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm west of the wave from 08N to 09N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to 08N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N31W to 06N45W and to near 08N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm north of the ITCZ between 27W-33W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 18W-22W and between 24W-28W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A high pressure ridge extends from a 1020 mb high center that is over eastern Tennessee southwestward to the western Gulf while an old frontal boundary extends from the Straits of Florida to just west of the western tip of Cuba. Recent scatterometer satellite data along with buoy observations reveal mostly moderate east winds south of 27N east of 91W, and moderate to fresh east to southeast winds west of 91W. Light to gentle winds east to southeast winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for slightly lower seas of 2 to 4 ft over the northern Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Fri producing gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf Fri evening, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible over the west-central Gulf by Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by late Sat. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf trough Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid-level low located south-southwest of the western tip of Cuba continues to sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters south of Cuba, and in the Gulf of Honduras while a mid to upper-level low over the central Caribbean continues to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola and its adjacent waters, including the waters just south of the Mona Passage. This activity reaches southward to near 14N and east of 75W to 66W. Latest scatterometer satellite data reveals a wide swath of fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the waters southwest of Haiti roughly from 14N to 18N between 72W and 77W. A container ship, with caller ID "OXK02"-Olivia Maersk, reported southeast winds of 35 kt near 17.5N75W at 15Z as a gust front racing to the northwest generated by the convective activity south of Hispaniola passed over it. This feature helped set-off moderate convection over Jamaica. A weak low of 1010 mb is analyzed in the southwestern Caribbean near 13N79W. A trough extends from the low north-northeastward to just south of Jamaica. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 11N to 17N between 75W and 79W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 75W. A 60 nm wide area of fresh to strong east to southeast winds is south of Haiti between 71W and 73W. Similar winds are just offshore the coast of Colombia between 73W and 74W. Recent scatterometer satellite data reveals moderate or weaker trades elsewhere, except for trades of moderate to fresh speeds north and northeast of the western Caribbean low pressure. Seas across the basin are mostly in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 4 to 6 ft from 11N to 18N between 76W and 80W and lower seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 15N between 64W and 85W, and in the Gulf of Honduras and in the approaches to the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming weekend, with locally rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Moisture associated with a mid to upper-level low over the central Caribbean will reach the northwestern Caribbean on Thu, keeping the chances of showers and thunderstorms across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected Surface ridging anchored by a 1020 mb in eastern Tennessee reaches southward and southeastern to across the waters just north of the Bahamas. A trough, an old frontal boundary, extends from a 1014 mb low well north of the area near 35N55W southwestward to 31N62W, to 28N70W, to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 30 to 60 nm northwest of the trough west of 75W, and within 30 nm either side of the trough between 75W and 68W. To the east, a 1015 mb low is centered near 25N67W, with a trough extending northeastward to 31N58W, and another trough extending from the low southwestward to near 22N71W. An area of scattered moderate convection is evident over the north-central waters north of about 28N and between 45W and 49W. This activity is ahead of an upper shortwave trough that is approaching from the NW. Over the eastern Atlantic, a weak 1013 mb low is near 20N35W as detected by a couple of recent scatterometer satellite data passes. A trough extends from the low north-northwestward to 28N38W. A small mid to upper-level low moving west-southwestward is seen in water vapor imagery near 25N41W while a larger upper-level low moving westward is seen near 19N51W. Mostly broken to overcast mid to upper- level clouds are present to the east and northeast of these features. Embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 23N to 28N between 30W and the trough that extends from the 1013 mb low. A tight gradient between the trough and high pressure to its north has resulted in an area of fresh to strong east to southeast winds that covers the water roughly from 20N to 26N between 30W and 33W, and also from 23N to 26N between 33W and 37W. Seas are in the range of 8 to 11 ft within this area of winds. The remainder subtropical central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High, which is generally supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds and moderate seas to 6 ft between the coast of NW Africa and 24W, including the waters adjacent to the Canary Islands. Seas peaking to around 6 ft are with these winds as indicated by an overnight altimeter satellite data pass. Moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere north of 20N and west of 24W. For the forecast west of 55W, moisture associated with the scattered shower and thunderstorm activity that is northwest of the trough, the old frontal boundary, that extends from 31N62W to the Straits of Florida will advect northward through at least Thu. A cold front will reach waters east of northeast Florida on Fri, with little change in winds and seas. A stronger cold front is expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, then reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################