--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC160421_C_KWBC_20260916042151_4522426-3687-TWDAT.txt ****0000004264**** AXNT20 KNHC 160421 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 21W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N and between 18W and 26W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 21N and between 54W and 61W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues to 09N44W. The ITCZ extends from 09N44W to 11N55W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the boundaries between 28W and 46W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from Hernando Beach, Florida to Fort Walton Beach, Florida. A pressure gradient prevails elsewhere over the gulf waters. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the stationary front will weaken over the next couple of days as it slowly drifts southward and dissipates by Thu. A strong ridge over the Eastern United States will support fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and rough seas starting in the NE Gulf late tonight and spreading over the rest of the northern Gulf waters through Thu night. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through Thu night, bringing nightly pulses of fresh to locally strong NE winds. Conditions will improve across the basin Fri, allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas during the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to near gale E winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail over the south central Caribbean. Gentle winds and slight seas are over the NW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure will continue to support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across much of the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere from 11N to 18N. These conditions will persist through the workweek. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected, except moderate to fresh mainly in the evenings near the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba through Wed night. Winds will diminish across the basin by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as the pressures gradient relaxes, with seas also slightly subsiding. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail N of the front. A surface trough extends from 30N52W to 26N51W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, prevail N of 22N and W of 55W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas are found elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will shift southward over the next couple of days and dissipate by Thu. A tight pressure gradient between the building ridge over the eastern United States and the front will result in fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas to build to rough N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through early Thu. Conditions will improve later Thu into Fri. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the SE Bahamas and Hispaniola will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the area over the next few days as the system shifts northwestward. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC161023_C_KWBC_20260916102413_31523192-3725-TWDAT.txt ****0000005467**** AXNT20 KNHC 161023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 15N and between 19W and 31W. A sharp tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles, located along 61W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 12N to 20N and between 54W and 64W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W and continues to 09N30W and to 08N44W. The ITCZ extends from 08N44W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm on either side of the boundaries between 33W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A dissipating stationary front is located from Tampa Bay to 29N85W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the Gulf waters, with the strongest storms occurring off NW Yucatan. High pressure over the SE United States supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas east of 90W and in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the aforementioned front is expected to dissipate later today. A 1027 mb high pressure system over the SE United States will support fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas starting in the NE Gulf this afternoon, spreading over the rest of the northern Gulf waters through Thu night. Conditions will improve across the basin Fri into Sat, allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas during the weekend. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the Bahamas will move toward Florida over the next few days, increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf waters.. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient continues to sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas across the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean, Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. Divergence aloft support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola and surrounding waters. Similar convection is seen in the Bay of Campeche and SW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean will force fresh to locally near gale-force trades and moderate to locally rough seas across across much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas will prevail in the eastern Caribbean. These conditions will persist through Fri night. Winds will diminish and seas subside across the basin during the weekend as the pressures gradient relaxes. A strong tropical wave will move across the basin over the next few days supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to near Cocoa Beach, Florida. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 5-9 ft are noted behind the front. A buoy near 31N71W recently reported 9 ft. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the SE Bahamas and Hispaniola is producing scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 62W and south of the front. Moderate to fresh easterly trade and moderate seas are noted south of 25N and west of 55W. Elsewhere, weak high pressure supports slight to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in the rest of the SW North Atlantic. Another upper-level trough is noted in the north-central Atlantic producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 25N and between 47W and 57W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a strong subtropical ridge centered north of the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident south of 20N and west of 40W. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic winds and moderate seas are occurring in the remainder of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will shift southward over the next day or so and dissipate. The tight pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high pressure over the SE United States and the aforementioned front will result in fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas to build to rough N of the Bahamas and W of 70W today through Thu. Conditions will improve late Thu into Fri, as broad ridging dominates the basin into the weekend. Meanwhile, a broad upper-level trough over the SE Bahamas and Hispaniola will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the area over the next few days as the system shifts northwestward. . $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC161531_C_KWBC_20260916153215_31523192-3747-TWDAT.txt ****0000005312**** AXNT20 KNHC 161531 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Sep 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 24W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N-16N between 23W-32W. A sharp tropical wave is moving across E Caribbean, located along 64W, south of 22N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 13N-18N between 56W-63W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from coastal Senegal near 15N18W to 09N39W. The ITCZ extends from 09N39W to 09N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N-16N between 23W-32W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the SE United States is helping to force fresh to locally strong E winds in the NE Gulf with seas 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-4 ft. Isolated moderate convection is located over most of the Gulf north of 22N east of 95W. For the forecast, the gradient related to high pressure ridging over the eastern U.S. that stretches southwestward to the southeastern U.S. will generally allow for fresh to strong northeast to east winds and moderate to rough seas over the NE Gulf this afternoon, spreading to across the rest of the northern Gulf waters through late Thu night. Conditions will improve across the basin Fri into Sat, allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas during the weekend. Meanwhile, a rather broad mid to upper- level trough over the Bahamas will move toward Florida Thu through Fri leading to increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern and central Gulf waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The moderate pressure gradient between ridging north of the area along with lower pressure over Colombia-Venezuela is forcing only fresh trades over the S central Caribbean with seas 6-8 ft. Additionally, the trades are locally fresh over the Lesser Antilles with seas 4-6 ft through the passages in association with the sharp tropical wave over the E Caribbean. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 13N-18N between 56W-63W. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 12N in the SW Caribbean in association with the monsoon trough from the NE Pacific. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in South America will generally maintain fresh to locally near gale-force trades along with moderate to locally rough seas over most of the central Caribbean through the end of the week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will continue across the eastern Caribbean through the weekend as winds diminish and seas subside elsewhere across the basin as the pressures gradient relaxes. A tropical wave currently in the eastern Caribbean will reach the western Caribbean during the upcoming weekend expected to be accompanied with scattered showers and thunderstorms. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near Bermuda west-southwestward to the N Bahamas. Winds poleward of the front are NE fresh to locally strong with seas 6-8 ft. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 20N-31N between 55W-75W in association with the front as well as a vigorous tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) extending from the Greater Antilles to near Bermuda. Elsewhere a surface trough extends from 22N36W to 31N34W with isolated moderate convection from 29N-31N between 30W-42W. Winds are N strong to near-gale along the Agadir coast of Morrocco with seas 5-7 ft. Winds are also N fresh to strong through the Canary Islands with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere winds across the tropical North Atlantic are gentle to moderate with seas 3-6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure over the southeastern U.S. and a stationary front that extends from just east of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas will bring fresh to strong northeast winds and build seas to a rough state north of the Bahamas and west of about 70W through Thu. Conditions will improve late Thu into Fri as broad ridging dominates the basin into the weekend. Meanwhile, a broad mid to upper-level trough located just east of the southeastern Bahamas in combination with a very moist and unstable environment will continue to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the forecast waters through the next few days as the system shifts northwestward. $$ Landsea/Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################