--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2025-11-28 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC280624_C_KWBC_20251128062510_29294990-1048-TWDAT.txt ****0000005594**** AXNT20 KNHC 280624 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Nov 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough is mostly confined to the African continent. An ITCZ extends westward from off the coast of northern Sierra Leone across 07N30W to 07N50W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 12N and between 17W and 51W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends southwestward from the western Atlantic across the Florida Straits and western Cuba, then through the Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche to near Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 70 nm along either side of the front. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas dominate the Gulf south of 27N. North of 27N, moderate to fresh N to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. For the forecast, the front is expected to exit the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing along and ahead of the front tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front, with conditions improving Fri night through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in the northwestern Gulf Fri night and Sat, ahead of the next front. This next cold front will emerge off the Texas coast early Sun morning and meander slowly southeastward across the northwestern and north-central Gulf Sun through Mon before moving southeastward Mon night and Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough along with divergent flow aloft is causing scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Convergent trade winds are inducing isolated thunderstorms at the northwestern basin, and near Hispaniola and the Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean basin. Fresh to strong ENE winds and 9 to 11 ft seas are present at the south-central basin. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted for the eastern, north- central and southwestern White House. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail at the northwestern basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the southwestern Caribbean will sustain strong to near-gale force trades over the southwestern and south-central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through Fri morning before diminishing. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere in the eastern and central basin through Sun. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean early Fri morning, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front is expected to stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night, then gradually dissipate over the northwestern Caribbean on Sat. A very weak pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from off the Carolinas coast across 31N73W to beyond the Florida Straits. Scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms are found up to 80 nm along either side. Convergent southerly winds are causing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Puerto Rico and the norther Leeward Islands. At the central Atlantic, a stationary front runs southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 31N35W to 26N48W. Patchy showers are evident near and up to 50 nm south of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted north of the cold front. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds, and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed northerly swells are found from 09N to 31N between 35W and the cold front/Lesser Antilles. Farther south for rest of the Atlantic Basin west of the 35W, gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high over the central Atlantic and low pressure across the SW Caribbean will sustain fresh E winds south of 22N and in the approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before diminishing on Fri. A cold front across the NW waters extends from 31N73W to Key Largo, and is followed by fresh NW to N winds. The cold front will move southeastward and extend from 31N64W through the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate from 31N58W the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, diminishing from west to east Sun. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC281100_C_KWBC_20251128110112_29294990-1068-TWDAT.txt ****0000004825**** AXNT20 KNHC 281100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Nov 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends westward from 08N15W to 08N35W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 15N between 18W and 52W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia offshore waters. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers prevail across the SW and SE Gulf in the wake of a cold front, which tail still reaches the Bay of Campeche. Also with strong high pressure of 1031 mb located over Arkansas, which ridge is building across the Gulf in the wake of the front, a tight pressure gradient is resulting in the continuation of fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft across the basin, except the NW Gulf. Over the NW Gulf, winds are moderate to locally fresh mainly from the east, and seas are moderate to 7 ft. For the forecast, the tail of the cold front is expected to exit completely the Gulf this morning. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front, with conditions improving tonight through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in the NW Gulf tonight and Sat, ahead of the next front. This next cold front will emerge off the Texas coast early Sun morning and meander slowly southeastward across the NW and N central Gulf Sun through Mon before moving southeastward Mon night and Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extending from western Cuba to the NE Yucatan Peninsula is followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft. Scattered showers are also ahead of the front mainly affecting the Yucatan Channel and the Gulf of Honduras. A high pressure system over the north central Atlantic continues to tighten the pressure gradient in the central Caribbean, leading to the continuation of fresh to near gale force winds in the SW basin and portions of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, trades are moderate to fresh and seas are moderate. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain strong to near gale-force trades over the SW and south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through later this morning before diminishing in the afternoon hours. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere in the eastern and central basin through Sun. The cold front is expected to stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then gradually lift N of the area on Sat. A very weak pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front across the NW waters extends from 31N71W to Andros Island to W Cuba and is followed by fresh NW to N winds. The front is also supporting scattered showers ahead and behind it, between Freeport in the Bahamas and 67W. The remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of strong high pressure just west of the Azores. A weakening stationary front extending from 31N35W to 27N48W along with a pair of surface troughs ahead of the front, are supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the central and eastern subtropics along with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high over the central Atlantic and low pressure across the SW Caribbean will sustain fresh E winds south of 25N and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the weekend. The cold front will move southeastward and extend from 31N64W through the central Bahamas tonight, and then dissipate from 31N58W the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, diminishing from west to east Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the N and central Florida offshore waters by Mon night ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the NE Florida coast Tue evening. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################