--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC120435_C_KWBC_20260712043528_9109880-8058-TWDAT.txt ****0000005145**** AXNT20 KNHC 120435 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0435 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near gale-force trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, into early next week. Early this afternoon satellite scatterometer data showed minimal gale- force winds off the north coast of Colombia, where satellite altimeter data showed seas of 12 to 15 ft. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale- force off the coast of Colombia again tonight through Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft are expected with these winds. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 69W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are depicted from 11N to 14.5N between 61.5W and the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N37W. The ITCZ continues from 09N37W to 07N57W. Scattered convection is depicted from 07N to 09N between 45W and 57W. Isolated convection is depicted from 08N to 10N between 20W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward across Florida into the Gulf region. Associated southeasterly low level flow continues to transport abundant low level moisture into the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the central Gulf. The subtropical ridge is supporting light to gentle winds east of 88W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds generally prevail west of 88W, except for moderate to fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas 2 to 4 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, a cold front will become stationary just N of the area early next week, enhancing thunderstorms across the far northern Gulf. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia. A Gale Warning is in effect. As previously mentioned, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds reaching minimal gale-force offshore Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are with these winds. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean. Rough seas, generated by the strong winds in the central Caribbean, are reaching the SW part of the basin where moderate to fresh trades prevail. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are over the SW Caribbean. For convection information over the eastern Caribbean, please read the Tropical Waves section above. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America supports gale-force NE winds and rough seas over the south central Caribbean tonight, and strong to near-gale trade winds across the central portion of the basin through the weekend. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong each evening through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters N of 24N between 53W and 64W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to locally fresh winds south of 23N and moderate seas, except for locally strong winds north of the Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the period, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC120445_C_KWBC_20260712044614_32440682-5054-TWDAT.txt ****0000005145**** AXNT20 KNHC 120445 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0435 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low will continue to support strong to near gale-force trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, into early next week. Early this afternoon satellite scatterometer data showed minimal gale- force winds off the north coast of Colombia, where satellite altimeter data showed seas of 12 to 15 ft. Winds are forecast to pulse to gale- force off the coast of Colombia again tonight through Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft are expected with these winds. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 69W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are depicted from 11N to 14.5N between 61.5W and the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 09N37W. The ITCZ continues from 09N37W to 07N57W. Scattered convection is depicted from 07N to 09N between 45W and 57W. Isolated convection is depicted from 08N to 10N between 20W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward across Florida into the Gulf region. Associated southeasterly low level flow continues to transport abundant low level moisture into the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the central Gulf. The subtropical ridge is supporting light to gentle winds east of 88W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds generally prevail west of 88W, except for moderate to fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas 2 to 4 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, a cold front will become stationary just N of the area early next week, enhancing thunderstorms across the far northern Gulf. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia. A Gale Warning is in effect. As previously mentioned, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds reaching minimal gale-force offshore Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are with these winds. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean. Rough seas, generated by the strong winds in the central Caribbean, are reaching the SW part of the basin where moderate to fresh trades prevail. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are over the SW Caribbean. For convection information over the eastern Caribbean, please read the Tropical Waves section above. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America supports gale-force NE winds and rough seas over the south central Caribbean tonight, and strong to near-gale trade winds across the central portion of the basin through the weekend. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong each evening through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters N of 24N between 53W and 64W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to locally fresh winds south of 23N and moderate seas, except for locally strong winds north of the Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the period, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC121014_C_KWBC_20260712101417_32440682-5070-TWDAT.txt ****0000004454**** AXNT20 KNHC 121014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low will continue to gale-force off the coast of Colombia through this morning. Rough to very rough seas are expected with these winds. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 70W south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are depicted along the wave axis from 11N to 13N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from 09N41W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ and W of 47W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward across Florida into the Gulf region. Associated southeasterly low-level flow continues to transport abundant low level moisture into the basin. Scattered showers are noted over the central Gulf. The subtropical ridge is supporting light to gentle winds east of 88W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail west of 88W, except for moderate to fresh winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas 2 to 4 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, a frontal boundary will remain N of the area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds reaching minimal gale-force offshore Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are with these winds. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean. Rough seas, generated by the strong winds in the central Caribbean, are reaching the SW part of the basin where moderate to fresh trades prevail. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are over the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America supports gale-force NE winds and rough seas over the south central Caribbean through this morning, and strong to near-gale trade winds across the central portion of the basin through the weekend. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong each evening through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters N of 24N between 53W and 64W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to fresh winds south of 23N and moderate seas, except for strong winds north of the Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the forecast period, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC121655_C_KWBC_20260712165533_9109880-8102-TWDAT.txt ****0000004021**** AXNT20 KNHC 121655 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean with axis along 72W from the SW Dominican Republic southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 16N southward between 66W and 73W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from 09N41W to 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ and W of 47W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The western Atlantic surface ridge extends west-northwestward across Florida and into the Gulf region. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the northern Gulf as diffluent winds aloft combine with southeasterly moisture return flow at the surface. A surface trough in the Bay of Campeche also supports scattered showers and thunderstorms along the trough axis. The subtropical ridge is supporting gentle to moderate winds east of 88W. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds prevail west of 88W, strongest winds occurring near the surface trough in the Bay of Campeche. Seas 2 to 4 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, a stationary front will reside just N of the area through midweek, enhancing thunderstorms across the northern Gulf waters. Mariners can expect gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally higher seas near the stronger thunderstorms. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each night. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate, supporting gentle to moderate SE winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions forecast for offshore Colombia. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia. Rough seas are with these winds. Fresh to strong winds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean along the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures over northern South America will continue to support strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central Caribbean early this week. East winds will pulse strong each evening into mid-week in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A diffluent pattern aloft and a surface trough analyzed from 22N64W to 31N55W is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters N of 23N between 55W and 62W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that sustains moderate to fresh winds south of 23N and moderate seas, except for strong winds north of Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will remain dominant through the forecast period, supporting moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, with mainly gentle winds to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected each night offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################