--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2025-11-29 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC290448_C_KWBC_20251129044918_29294990-1152-TWDAT.txt ****0000004102**** AXNT20 KNHC 290448 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Nov 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0448 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends westward from near 07N23W to 08.5N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 17N and east of 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A strong high pressure north of the area dominates the Gulf of America, supporting mainly dry conditions. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high and lower pressures associated with a cold front in the NW Caribbean results in fresh to strong N-NE winds over much of the basin and seas of 5-10 ft. The strongest winds are found in SE Gulf and the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel and Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds and associated rough seas will diminish tonight as high pressure builds into the SE U.S. SE return flow will quickly develop in the NW Gulf Sat and reach strong speeds offshore Texas, ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast Sat night, then stall through Mon before moving SE through the basin early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the front in the NW Caribbean. Similar convection is occurring in the SW Caribbean due to divergence aloft and convergent surface winds. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are evident behind the frontal boundary, with seas peaking near 11 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 5-9 ft are present in the central, eastern and SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain fresh to locally strong trades over the SW and south- central Caribbean overnight, with moderate trades elsewhere in the central and eastern basin prevailing through the weekend as the gradient weakens some. The aforementioned stationary front will dissipate through late Sat. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas behind it through the Yucatan Channel will diminish as the front decays. A very weak pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is found along the front. A strong ridge over the east-central United States is forcing fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft behind the frontal boundary, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring in the Florida Straits. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic waters, a broad subtropical ridge centered SW of the Azores dominates, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front from Bermuda to central Cuba is followed by fresh to locally strong N winds. This front will gradually dissipate through Sun. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing NE winds across the SW Atlantic this weekend. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop offshore NE Florida Mon night ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the NE Florida coast Tue night. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC290955_C_KWBC_20251129095702_16515500-736-TWDAT.txt ****0000006249**** AXNT20 KNHC 290955 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Nov 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Atlantic Swell: A trough reaching from roughly 10N to 25N will develop over the tropical North Atlantic Ocean near 45W, associated with a broad upper trough over the region. The trough will move to the W-NW to the northeast of the Leeward Islands through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will develop between the trough and high pressure over the north central Atlantic Sun and Mon. This in turn will allow rough to very rough seas to develop, generally covering the waters from 15N to 30N east of 60W by late Sun. Combined seas will reach 12 ft from 20N to 25N between 45W and 60W by early Mon. Winds and seas will diminish late Mon through Tue as the trough continues westward to 65W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends westward from near 06N20W to 05N25W to 09N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N 10W to 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A strong high pressure north of the area centered over the Carolinas dominates the Gulf, supporting mainly dry conditions. This pattern is also supporting fresh to strong SE winds off the coast of Texas, and fresh to strong NE to E winds across the southeast Gulf and Straits of Florida, as confirmed by a scatterometer satellite pass from earlier in the evening. The fresh to strong NE winds are also supporting rough seas across the Straits of Florida. Recent altimeter satellite data also indicated seas to 8 ft near the Yucatan Channel, in N swell. Fresh to strong SW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are also noted off the coast of Texas, following a warm front across eastern Texas. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, winds and seas will diminish through tonight as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the southern Plains. The front will move off the Texas coast Sun, then stall along the coast from northern Florida to South Texas through late Mon. Weak low pressure along the front off Texas will move rapidly toward the Carolina coast late Mon a stationary front from Bermuda to central Cuba is followed by fresh to locally strong N winds. This front will gradually dissipate through Sun. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing NE winds across the SW Atlantic this weekend. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop offshore NE Florida Mon night ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the NE Florida coast Tue night. through early Tue, allowing reinforcing cold air into the northern Gulf by late Tue. Looking ahead, the front will move through the eastern Gulf Wed, but lift northward over the western Gulf as another area of low pressure forms over South Texas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorm are active along a stationary front extending from central Cuba to central Belize. Recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite passes indicated fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas north of the front to the Yucatan Channel. Farther south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active over the southwest Caribbean due to divergence aloft and convergent surface winds. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain fresh to locally strong trades over the SW and south- central Caribbean overnight, with moderate trades elsewhere in the central and eastern basin prevailing through the weekend as the gradient weakens some. The aforementioned stationary front will dissipate through late Sat. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas behind it through the Yucatan Channel will diminish as the front decays. A very weak pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is found along the front. A strong ridge over the east-central United States is forcing fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft behind the frontal boundary, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring in the Florida Straits. In the central and eastern tropical Atlantic waters, a broad subtropical ridge centered southwest of the Azores dominates, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will gradually dissipate through Sun, and high pressure north of the front will shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak front will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon, then will stall and lift northward through early Tue. Expect southerly winds and building seas north of 29N and west of 75W Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these strong southerly winds will shift eastward north of 28N through mid week, ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue night into Wed. This front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Wed. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough moving westward into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands Sun through Tue. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC291729_C_KWBC_20251129173022_29294990-1202-TWDAT.txt ****0000004920**** AXNT20 KNHC 291729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Nov 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A surface trough, currently analyzed from 15N to 25N along 44W, will merge with another surface trough currently analyzed from 06N to 12N along 50W. The combined trough will advance westward across the tropical and subtropical central Atlantic, and bring fresh to strong E winds across most of the waters from 15N to 30N east of 60W through Monday. These winds will build seas to 8-12 ft in the described area by Monday. Late on Monday, winds and seas will begin to diminish as the trough weakens and continues westward to 65W. This pattern is partly associated with a broad upper level trough across the central Atlantic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N13W and extends to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends westward from near 05N19W to 07N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 09N east of 25W. GULF OF AMERICA... Strong high pressure centered over North Carolina provides for return flow across the Gulf, with fresh to strong wind speeds noted in the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida and Yucatan Channel, and the NW Gulf offshore Texas. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft across the Gulf, with highest seas analyzed in the Straits of Florida, Yucatan Channel, and offshore Texas. Seas may locally peak to 8 ft in these areas, as indicated by recent satellite altimeter data. For the forecast, aside from the NW Gulf waters, winds and seas will diminish tonight as high pressure slides east into the Atlantic. The cold front will move offshore Texas Sun, then stall along the far northern Gulf Mon. Low pressure will form along along the front Mon night near the Texas coast, then race NE toward the eastern U.S. coast. This will allow reinforcing cold air to send the front through the Gulf into the middle of the week. Looking ahead, the front may move N as a warm front ahead of another low pressure forming over Texas Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers continue along a stationary front that extends from central Cuba to central Belize. Recent scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong NW winds north of the front, including within the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a more relaxed pressure gradient across the eastern and central Caribbean provides for moderate to locally fresh trades. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted in the central and SW Caribbean. For the forecast, the front will dissipate and the high pressure shifts eastward into the western Atlantic late today, allowing winds and seas to diminish and conditions to remain relatively benign into the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic. A stationary front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the front. Strong high pressure centered over North Carolina continues to force fresh to strong NE winds to the west of the front across the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Seas are 8-11 ft from 25N to 29N between 66W and 76W. Seas are 4-7 ft elsewhere in the W Atlantic. Elsewhere across the basin, aside from the SPECIAL FEATURE, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually dissipate through Sun, and high pressure north of the front will shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak front will stall off the northeast Florida coast Mon, then lift northward Mon night. Expect southerly winds and building seas north of 29N and west of 75W Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these strong southerly winds will shift eastward north of 28N into the middle of next week, ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue night into Wed. This front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Wed. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough moving westward into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands Sun into Tue night. $$ Mahoney ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################