--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC110315_C_KWBC_20260511031534_9109880-2986-TWDAT.txt ****0000004968**** AXNT20 KNHC 110315 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon May 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between broad western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades along with rough seas over the south-central Caribbean Sea during the next several days. These trades are forecast to reach near-gale to gale-force tonight off northwest Colombia with seas building to a peak of 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 21W, south of 10N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 05N and between 20W and 25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 57W, south of 10N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is enhancing convection in NE South America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 12N16W to 08N17W. The ITCZ extends from 08N17W to 04N20W and then from 02N22W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 05N and between 25W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergence aloft is producing widespread cloudiness, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the western and northern Gulf waters. The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic extends westward into the Gulf, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft south of 25N and between 86W and 93W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, a cold front will move off the Texas coast early Mon morning, with thunderstorms ahead of it. This front will move SE and stretch from near Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche Tue, then stall over the far SE basin Wed. Ahead of the front, fresh to locally strong SE winds will pulse tonight and Mon night offshore the Yucatan Peninsula as a surface trough moves offshore. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for information about expected gale conditions offshore Colombia tonight. Dry weather conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea. The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to near gale- force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a tight gradient between strong high pressure centered over the north Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Fri night, except Wed when winds are forecast to be moderate to fresh. However, gale-force NE winds are forecast to pulse tonight offshore Colombia. In the Gulf of Honduras, E to SE winds will pulse at night tonight and Mon night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are forecast across the eastern Caribbean through the period with moderate or weaker winds prevailing elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft and a weak surface trough result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 74W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of an extensive subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft south o 25N and west of 40W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is expected to reach the waters off NE Florida Mon and move eastward while weakening Tue and Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas will follow the front before it weakens and conditions improve Tue night. Along and ahead of the front, thunderstorms, some strong, are expected. Starting mid-week, high pressure building over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh SE-S winds and moderate to rough seas E of 70W. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC111047_C_KWBC_20260511104737_9109880-3007-TWDAT.txt ****0000005641**** AXNT20 KNHC 111047 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon May 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between strong north-central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong trades along with rough seas over the south-central Caribbean Sea through the end of the week. Ongoing gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia will diminish to strong to near gale-force speeds later this morning. Rough seas to 13 ft with the strongest winds will subside to 8 to 9 ft by this afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic with axis near 23W, from 00N to 10N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly confined to the southern wave environment near the ITCZ from 04S to 04N between 15W and 30W. A tropical wave has moved inland Guyana with axis near 57W S of 10N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. The wave is supporting moderate convection offshore Suriname and Guyana. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 11N16W and continues SW to 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 07N18W to 04N22W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 02N24W to 01S45W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 30W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front is moving off the Texas coast this morning along with heavy showers and thunderstorms affecting mainly the NW basin. Gusty winds and rough seas are likely along with low visibility. The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic extends westward into the eastern Gulf, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas ahead of the front, except for moderate to locally fresh SE winds off the Yucatan Peninsula due to a surface trough moving nightly into the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and stretch from near Tampa Bay to the Bay of Campeche Tue, then stall over the far SE basin Wed. Ahead of the front, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse tonight offshore the Yucatan Peninsula as a surface trough moves to the Bay of Campeche. Looking ahead, the tail of a cold front will move across the NE Gulf Wed night and move E of the basin on Thu. Surface ridging will build and dominate the remainder forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section above for information about gale conditions offshore Colombia. Dry weather conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea. The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to near gale- force trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a tight gradient between strong high pressure centered over the north-central Atlantic and low pressure over NW Colombia will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Fri night, except Wed when winds are forecast to be moderate to fresh during the day. Pulsing gales offshore Colombia will diminish to strong speeds later this morning while fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are forecast across the eastern Caribbean through the period with moderate or weaker winds prevailing elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft and abundant moisture inflow from the Gulf of America result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters N of the Bahamas and W of 70W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas south of 25N. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front is expected to reach the waters off NE Florida by this evening and move eastward while weakening Tue and Wed. Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate to rough seas possibly will follow the front, affecting mainly the offshores N of 29N before the boundary weakens and conditions improve Tue night. Along and ahead of the front, thunderstorms, some strong, are expected. Starting mid-week, high pressure building over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh SE-S winds and moderate to rough seas E of 70W ahead of the next cold front forecast to emerge off NE Florida Thu morning. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC111633_C_KWBC_20260511163402_32440682-7-TWDAT.txt ****0000004244**** AXNT20 KNHC 111633 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon May 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1633 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic has been repositioned to 27W, from 01S to 10N. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04S to 04.5N between 24W and 29W. A tropical wave has its axis near 58W S of 14N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. The wave is supporting moderate convection offshore Suriname and Guyana. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 11N16W and continues SW to 04N23W. The ITCZ extends from 01N29W to 03N50W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 18W and 23W. Similar convection is depicted from 00N to 04N between 29W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak cold front is moving off the Texas coast this morning. Ahead of the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting mainly the north-central basin. Gusty winds to 30 kt and rough seas are likely near these showers and thunderstorms. A weak pressure gradient pattern is supporting moderate or weaker winds and 1 to 3 ft seas south of 24N and west of 87W. Elsewhere, light and variable winds along with seas 1 to 3 ft prevail. For the forecast, the weak cold front will steadily move southeastward and extend from the Big Bend of Florida to the Bay of Campeche Tue morning, then stall and dissipate by Wed. Winds are generally moderate or weaker with the front, though showers and thunderstorms will continue today and tonight along the front. High pressure and quiescent conditions will dominate on Wed and Thu. Looking ahead, another weak cold front should enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Dry weather conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea. The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a moderate gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the area and the Colombian Low will continue to force fresh to strong NE to E trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are forecast across the remainder of forecast waters. Large E swell will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from Tue night into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft and abundant moisture inflow from the Gulf of America result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of 64W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge that is supporting moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas south of 25N. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front will reach the waters off of NE Florida early tomorrow morning, extend along 30N and becoming stationary Wed morning, then lifting north of our waters as a warm front by Thu morning. While winds should be fresh or weaker in association with the front, scattered showers and thunderstorms should continue along the front. Looking ahead, another weak cold front will reach the Atlantic from NE Florida on Thu, and reaching from 31N70W to 26N72W Fri morning. S winds ahead of the front north of 28N will be fresh to strong. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################