--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-02-17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC170003_C_KWBC_20260217000406_29294990-8074-TWDAT.txt ****0000006684**** AXNT20 KNHC 170003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Feb 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front moving across the western Atlantic extends through 31N73W southwestward across the far NW Bahamas and across the Florida Keys into the SE Gulf of America. Midday satellite scatterometer data showed S to SW winds to 40 kt occurring within a broken band of convection, along and within 90 nm ahead of the front, with strong to near-gale force winds within 300 nm ahead of the front, north of 27N. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft are also ongoing in the same area, and following the front west to 78W. The cold front will reach from near 31N79W to the NW Bahamas and to west-central Cuba this evening, at which time these gale-force winds are expected to shift north of 31N. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis remains over the African continent at this time. The ITCZ extends from 05N14W to 02.5S33W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active from 01N to 07.5N between 10W and 28W, and also S of 02N between 45W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from the western Atlantic southwestward across the Florida Keys Florida near Chokoloskee to near 23.5N87W, then continues as a frontal trough to the central Bay of Campeche near 18.5N94W. 1021 mb high pressure is behind the front, centered over NE Louisiana. The resulting pressure gradient is producing moderate N winds and 3 to 5 ft seas behind the front and E of 87W. Light to gentle NE breezes prevail elsewhere across the basin, becoming E to SE across the NW part and into the Texas coast. Slight seas of 3 ft and less, with generally fair skies prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE and exit the basin this evening. Moderate N to NE winds over the E Gulf behind the front will briefly diminish by Tue morning as a surface ridge begins to slide eastward across the northern Gulf. However, the pressure gradient will tighten over the western half of the Gulf on Tue as a very broad area of low pressure deepens over the NW CONUS. This will result in moderate to fresh southerly winds that will expand to the eastern half of the basin by Thu morning ahead of the next cold front, forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active near surface trough extending from central Cuba to W of Grand Cayman Island near 19N83W. Farther south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over coastal portions of Colombia. High pressure is centered over the central Atlantic and extends a ridge southwestward to the SE Bahamas and E Cuba. To the south of the ridge, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the south central Caribbean S of 14N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft, except to near 8 ft off NW Colombia. Elsewhere E of the surface trough, moderate trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail. To the NW of the surface trough, light and variable winds prevail with slight seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will pulse offshore Colombia, the Gulf of Venezuela and southern Panama offshore waters through the rest of the week, possibly reaching near gale- force speed Sat and Sat night. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Fresh NE winds will develop in the Windward Passage and in the lee side of Cuba Tue through Wed evening as high pressure moves eastward off the coasts of the Carolinas and then towards the central Atlantic. Fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and will continue through Sat night. Otherwise, trade winds will remain moderate to fresh speeds over the E Caribbean through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect N of 29N, along a cold front that extends from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas. These gale-force SW winds are expected to shift N of 31N and out of the area this evening. Please refer to the Special Feature section above for more details. The aforementioned cold front spirals into a rapidly deepening 992 mb low pressure center near 37N70W. Gale-force to strong N winds occurring southwest of the low center extend to near 31N and are producing large N swell moving into the waters W of the front. Seas behind the front and N of 29N are 8 to 11 ft, diminishing to 4 ft along the central coast of Florida. East of the front, a 1024 mb high is centered over the central Atlantic near 32.5N52W and extends a ridge to the SE Bahamas. S through SE of the high, a second front extends from 31N37W to 22N50W, then is a stationary front to 21N65W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted along and within 180 nm north of this front, with gentle breezes and 4 to 5 ft seas elsewhere west of the front to 65W. Elsewhere moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas with a component of NE to E swell prevail across the Tropical Atlantic S of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, gale-force SW winds occurring N of 29N along the cold front are forecast to move N of 31N this evening. However heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue ahead of this front as it continues its eastward motion through Wed. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas to central Cuba tonight, from near 30N55W to just NE of the Puerto Rico offshores Tue evening, and will move E of 55W by Wed afternoon. Winds behind the front will become moderate or weaker early Tue night, however moderate to large NW to N swell will continue to support rough seas over great portions of the SW N Atlantic waters through Thu night. The tail of a cold front is forecast to enter the NE Florida offshore waters briefly on Thu. A third cold front is forecast to enter the same region Sat night. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC170259_C_KWBC_20260217030007_29294990-8084-TWDAT.txt ****0000004720**** AXNT20 KNHC 170259 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Feb 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0255 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 01S35W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1020 mb high pressure system dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Generally dry conditions are found across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure is building across the area in the wake of the recent cold front maintaining rather tranquil conditions. Moderate north to northeast winds over the eastern Gulf south of 27N will diminish early on Tue. The high pressure will slide eastward through Wed night in response to a deepening low pressure system in the upper Midwest region that will be moving eastward. As this happens, the pressure gradient will tighten over the western half of the Gulf starting on Tue leading to moderate to fresh southerly winds in that part of the Gulf. These winds expand to the western part of E Gulf Thu through late Fri. The low pressure will pull a cold front into the NW Gulf on Sat. Light to gentle winds are expected behind the front initially before becoming fresh to strong northerly winds Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from central Cuba to 18N83W and isolated showers are noted near this boundary. The remainder of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. This high pressure supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east winds will continue offshore Colombia through the forecast period. These winds are expected to expand in coverage starting late on Thu, with the possibly of near gale-force speeds Fri and Sat night as Atlantic ridging noses westward tightening the pressure gradient. Fresh northeast winds will develop in the Windward Passage and in the lee side of Cuba from Tue through Wed evening. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will begin to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and continue through the rest of the forecast period, and trades elsewhere will generally remain at moderate to fresh during this same time. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from just west of Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western Cuba. A surface trough is noted ahead of the front. Scattered showers to isolated thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the front to 64W and north of 23N. Fresh to strong winds are found north of 27N and west of 57W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. A broad subtropical ridge dominates the rest of the tropical Atlantic, sustaining moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas south of 20N and west of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach from near 31N61W to 26N69W and stationary to South Florida early on Tue. The cold front portion will continue eastward across the northern and central offshore waters through Tue evening passing E of 55W by late Tue night. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds ahead of the front N of 28N will diminish to fresh speeds as the front crosses 55W. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds behind the front will become north to northeast fresh winds early on Tue. Elsewhere, long-period northerly swell will continue to support rough seas over the waters E and NE of the Bahamas through Thu night. Looking ahead, fresh southwest winds are expected to develop over the far NW part of the area beginning Sat in advance of the next cold front. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################