--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC070439_C_KWBC_20260507043953_9109880-2720-TWDAT.txt ****0000004856**** AXNT20 KNHC 070439 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu May 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0438 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W, S of 11N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17.5W and continues southwestward to near 01S31W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 00N35W to near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 04N along both, the ITCZ and the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The pressure gradient between a 1016 mb high pressure over the E Gulf and lower pressures over Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds over the western Gulf W of 87W, except for fresh to strong E to SE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas W of 87W are 3 to 6 ft. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere along with seas 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure over the eastern and central Gulf interacting with lower pressures over Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh southeast winds in the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern Gulf through late tonight. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sat. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf coastal waters by Thu morning, quickly stall Thu evening, then lift back to the north as a warm front Fri into Sat as high pressure ridging builds back in across the basin from the east. Looking ahead, another cold front may try to move into the northern Gulf waters late on Sun, and reach from north-central Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late on Mon, followed by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are likely to precede the fronts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean, where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail elsewhere, except over the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong E winds prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through the forecast period, with similar conditions expected in the Gulf of Honduras though diminishing there Mon. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N57W to 28N63W, then it becomes stationary from 31N57W to 28N71W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are SE of the cold front. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail N of the front. Moderate winds are N of 29N within 60 nm east of the front. A surface trough extends from 22N35W to 28N34W. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are found from 23N to 30N and east of 47W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to slowly shift east while washing out through Thu. Another front will move off northern Florida Thu night, gradually losing definition as it shifts across the northern waters through Sat. Elsewhere, winds may pulse to moderate to fresh off northern Hispaniola, increasing to fresh to strong this weekend and into early next week. Southerly winds are expected to freshen off northern Florida Sun night ahead of a stronger front that is expected to move across the northwest forecast waters through Mon night, followed by moderate to fresh northwest winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible ahead of both fronts. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge extending from near 31N56W to the Florida Keys will be in place during the forecast period allowing for generally quiet conditions across the area. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC070739_C_KWBC_20260507074021_38666572-2756-TWDAT.txt ****0000006017**** AXNT20 KNHC 070739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu May 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33.5W, S of 11N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N15.5W and continues southwestward to near 01.5S31W, with the tropical wave described above to the west. The ITCZ is analyzed from west of the tropical wave near 02N37W to near the coast of Brazil at 00N47W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted S of 04N along both, the ITCZ and the monsoon trough, and near the tropical wave. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak cold front is moving into the Texas coastal waters, with high pressure ridging in control across the waters ahead of it. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the E Gulf and lower pressures over Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds over the eastern Gulf E of 86W, and across the western Gulf nearshore waters where the pressure gradient has weakened slightly due to front moving toward the SW Louisiana and Texas coasts. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, mainly in the central Gulf, with locally strong SE winds near the Yucatan Peninsula due to the diurnal trough. Seas are 4-6 ft N of 21N and W of 89W, except lower in the coastal waters, and 1-3 ft across the remainder of the basin, including the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, the weak front is forecast to move slowly today, and quickly stall just beyond the Texas coastal waters by this evening, then lift back to the north as a warm front Fri into Sat as high pressure ridging builds back in across the basin from the east. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sat. Looking ahead, another cold front may try to move into the northern Gulf waters late on Sun, and reach from north- central Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late on Mon, followed by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible to precede the fronts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean, where seas are in the 6-9 ft range. Similar winds are in the Gulf of Honduras with 5-7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere from 10.5N to 19N, as well as S of the Yucatan Channel, with mainly gentle winds across the remainder of the basin, including near the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba, and SW Caribbean S of 10.5N, along with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through the forecast period, with similar conditions expected in the Gulf of Honduras, though diminishing there Mon night as a cold front may approach the NW Caribbean from the Gulf of America. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening frontal system with attendant low pressure is in the process of moving through into the Mid-Atlantic and SE United States. Numerous convection is out ahead of the front from northern Florida and Georgia northward to the Delmarva and beyond. Some of this convection is impacting the waters off SE Georgia and northern Florida, while winds there out of the S have increased to moderate to fresh. To the E, a weakening front extends from low pressure N of the discussion waters through 31N56W to 27.5N70W, with scattered moderate convection present N of 25N within of about 240 nm E-SE of the front. Seas are 4-6 ft N of 28N between 54W and 64W. Continuing eastward, high pressure N of the area combined with broad troughing supports moderate to locally fresh mainly NE-E winds and 6-8 ft seas across the area N of 20N between 20W and 47W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters, along with 4-6 ft seas, except 3-4 ft W of 64W. For the forecast west of 55W, the weakening front in the central Atlantic is forecast to slowly shift east while washing out today. Another front will move off northern Florida tonight, gradually losing definition as it shifts across the northern waters through Sat. Southerly winds are expected to freshen off northern Florida Sun night ahead of a stronger front that is expected to move across the northwest forecast waters through Mon night, followed by moderate to fresh northwest winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible ahead of both fronts. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge extending from near 30N55W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida will be in place during the forecast period, allowing for generally quiet conditions across the area. Meanwhile, winds may pulse to moderate to fresh off northern Hispaniola, increasing to fresh to strong this weekend and into early next week. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC070945_C_KWBC_20260507094555_9109880-2735-TWDAT.txt ****0000006017**** AXNT20 KNHC 070945 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu May 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33.5W, S of 11N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N15.5W and continues southwestward to near 01.5S31W, with the tropical wave described above to the west. The ITCZ is analyzed from west of the tropical wave near 02N37W to near the coast of Brazil at 00N47W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted S of 04N along both, the ITCZ and the monsoon trough, and near the tropical wave. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak cold front is moving into the Texas coastal waters, with high pressure ridging in control across the waters ahead of it. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the E Gulf and lower pressures over Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds over the eastern Gulf E of 86W, and across the western Gulf nearshore waters where the pressure gradient has weakened slightly due to front moving toward the SW Louisiana and Texas coasts. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere, mainly in the central Gulf, with locally strong SE winds near the Yucatan Peninsula due to the diurnal trough. Seas are 4-6 ft N of 21N and W of 89W, except lower in the coastal waters, and 1-3 ft across the remainder of the basin, including the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, the weak front is forecast to move slowly today, and quickly stall just beyond the Texas coastal waters by this evening, then lift back to the north as a warm front Fri into Sat as high pressure ridging builds back in across the basin from the east. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sat. Looking ahead, another cold front may try to move into the northern Gulf waters late on Sun, and reach from north- central Florida to eastern Bay of Campeche by late on Mon, followed by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible to precede the fronts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean, where seas are in the 6-9 ft range. Similar winds are in the Gulf of Honduras with 5-7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere from 10.5N to 19N, as well as S of the Yucatan Channel, with mainly gentle winds across the remainder of the basin, including near the Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba, and SW Caribbean S of 10.5N, along with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas through the forecast period, with similar conditions expected in the Gulf of Honduras, though diminishing there Mon night as a cold front may approach the NW Caribbean from the Gulf of America. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening frontal system with attendant low pressure is in the process of moving through into the Mid-Atlantic and SE United States. Numerous convection is out ahead of the front from northern Florida and Georgia northward to the Delmarva and beyond. Some of this convection is impacting the waters off SE Georgia and northern Florida, while winds there out of the S have increased to moderate to fresh. To the E, a weakening front extends from low pressure N of the discussion waters through 31N56W to 27.5N70W, with scattered moderate convection present N of 25N within of about 240 nm E-SE of the front. Seas are 4-6 ft N of 28N between 54W and 64W. Continuing eastward, high pressure N of the area combined with broad troughing supports moderate to locally fresh mainly NE-E winds and 6-8 ft seas across the area N of 20N between 20W and 47W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters, along with 4-6 ft seas, except 3-4 ft W of 64W. For the forecast west of 55W, the weakening front in the central Atlantic is forecast to slowly shift east while washing out today. Another front will move off northern Florida tonight, gradually losing definition as it shifts across the northern waters through Sat. Southerly winds are expected to freshen off northern Florida Sun night ahead of a stronger front that is expected to move across the northwest forecast waters through Mon night, followed by moderate to fresh northwest winds. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible ahead of both fronts. Otherwise, a high pressure ridge extending from near 30N55W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida will be in place during the forecast period, allowing for generally quiet conditions across the area. Meanwhile, winds may pulse to moderate to fresh off northern Hispaniola, increasing to fresh to strong this weekend and into early next week. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################