--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2025-10-31 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC310558_C_KWBC_20251031055920_25559334-3094-TWDAT.txt ****0000006591**** AXNT20 KNHC 310558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Oct 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Melissa is centered near 32.8N 67.5W at 31/0300 UTC or 140 nm WNW of Bermuda, moving NE at 33 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are currently around 34 ft. Satellite imagery depicts numerous moderate to isolated strong convection sheared NE of the center from 32N to 37N between 60W and 65W. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the northwest of Bermuda tonight and pass south of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone on Friday night. Gradual weakening is expected later tonight, and Melissa is expected to become a post-tropical low by Friday night. Coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore winds for Bermuda. Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells generated by Melissa are also likely to reach the coast of the Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada Friday and persist into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 55-56W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of the wave axis from 08N to 17N between 56W and 63W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic at the coast of Senegal near 14N17W, and extends southwestward to near 08N26W, where it transitions to ITCZ, continuing to 05N37W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 10W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge has built across the Gulf in the wake of a former front and is providing light to gentle northerly winds and slight to moderate seas W of 90W. East of 90W, a tighter pressure gradient with the front that is over the central Bahamas, is supporting gentle to moderate N to NW winds, and moderate to rough seas to 10 ft over the SE Gulf per buoy and altimeter data. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NW winds and moderate to rough seas will decrease early Fri morning. A cold front may enter the NW Gulf Sat night into Sun, with fresh to locally strong winds and building seas behind the front. The front will reach along 87W by Sun night, clearing the basin by Mon night. Winds and seas behind the front should gradually decrease into midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tail of a stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras. A surface trough is ahead of the front across the Nicaragua and Costa Rica offshore waters. Farther east, and middle level inverted trough and and upper level low support another surface trough that is bringing showers to the central Caribbean, including the western Hispaniola adjacent waters and NW Colombia offshore waters. In the E Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate and seas are slight. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate today Fri. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas behind this front will gradually diminish and subside today as well. Trade winds will freshen, locally strong, over the E Caribbean Sat morning as the pressure gradient between a tropical wave entering the region and a ridge building N of the area tightens. These winds will expand to the central Caribbean by Sat evening as the wave continues to move westward and the ridge further builds, with seas locally to rough. Easterly winds will diminish to moderate speeds early next week as the wave weakens and the ridge starts retreating eastward, loosening the pressure gradient. Meanwhile, another cold front may push into the NW Caribbean by early Mon, reaching from eastern Cuba to just offshore Nicaragua Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will follow the front, locally strong offshore Nicaragua. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for the details related to Hurricane Melissa. Hurricane Melissa is centered just N of the area near 32.8N 67.5W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving northeast at 33 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 971 mb. A cold front is to the W of Melissa from 31N72W to the Central Bahamas where it stalls and then continues to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong winds and reinforcing seas are behind this front. Ahead of the front and N of Hispaniola, a surface trough is supporting scattered showers between 62W and 72W. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge that is supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, Melissa will move to 37.3N 62.7W Fri morning, become extratropical and move to 43.5N 55.7W Fri evening, weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 49.2N 48.5W Sat morning, 52.9N 42.8W Sat evening, 54.6N 36.4W Sun morning, and 55.6N 30.0W Sun evening. Melissa will change little in intensity as it moves to 59.5N 17.7W late Mon. The front W of Melissa will quickly weaken today as it moves E and Melissa departs, reaching from 31N61W to near the Windward Passage by this evening where it will stall again and dissipate into the weekend. The remnants of the front will shift NW as a remnant trough through Sun. Remnant seas from Melissa will more slowly subside through Sat. Looking ahead, another cold front may impact the region early next week. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC310853_C_KWBC_20251031085422_25559334-3109-TWDAT.txt ****0000007356**** AXNT20 KNHC 310853 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Oct 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Melissa is centered near 35.9N 64.0W at 31/0900 UTC or 220 nm N of Bermuda, moving NE at 36 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are currently around 39 ft (12.0 m) just N of the area and W of Bermuda. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is now confined to N of the area within 43N71W to 47N62W to 34N56W to 33N66W. Melissa is rapidly moving toward the northeast. This general motion is expected to continue into Saturday, followed by a gradual slowdown and turn toward the east-northeast later this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the south of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone tonight. Melissa is expected to become a strong post-tropical cyclone later today, with gradual weakening forecast over the weekend. Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to reach the coast of the Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada today and persist into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 57W, south of 18.5N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Deeper convection has diminished during the past several hours with widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible S of 19N between 50W and 62W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic at the coast of Senegal near 13N16.5W and extends southwestward to near 09N20.5W, where it transitions to ITCZ, continuing to 05N48W. Widely scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted on conventional satellite imagery from 03.5N to 10N between 11W and 28W, and from 01N to 09.5N between 28W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge has built across the Gulf in the wake of a departed cold front. Winds behind the front have diminished with moderate winds noted E of 87W and light to gentle winds W of 87W per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. A lingering area of locally rough seas is in the SE Gulf just N of the Yucatan Channel with slight seas in the far NW waters and moderate elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate N to NW winds and moderate seas will diminish and subside today. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Sat night into Sun, with fresh to locally strong winds and building seas behind the front. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle SW to off Veracruz, Mexico Sun morning, clearing the basin by Mon morning. Winds and seas behind the front should gradually decrease into midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras, with moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. A pair of surface trough is analyzed ESE of the front, one from 17N79.5W to 09N81W and the other from SW Haiti near 19N73W to northern Colombia at 10.5N75W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 11N including near the eastern end of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, with similar activity noted within 30-60 nm of the eastern trough. Some additional convection is in the far SE Caribbean and near Trinidad and Tobago. Moderate E-SE winds are E of 72W, with mainly light to gentle winds between 72W and the western trough. Winds W of the western trough to the front are moderate to fresh. Seas are 3-5 ft E of the western trough, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will wash out today, becoming a stationary remnant trough into the weekend. Trade winds will freshen, locally strong, over the E Caribbean tonight into Sat as the pressure gradient between a tropical wave entering the region and a ridge building N of the area tightens. These winds will expand to the central Caribbean by Sat evening as the wave continues to move westward and the ridge further builds, with seas locally to rough. Easterly winds will diminish to moderate speeds early next week as the wave weakens and the ridge starts retreating eastward, loosening the pressure gradient. Meanwhile, another cold front may push into the NW Caribbean by early Mon, reaching from eastern Cuba to just offshore Nicaragua Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will follow the front, locally strong offshore Nicaragua into midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for the details related to Hurricane Melissa. Hurricane Melissa is N of the area near 35.9N 64.0W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northeast at 36 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 973 mb. A cold front is to the W of Melissa from 31N70.5W to 21.5N76.5W. Fresh to strong winds and reinforcing seas are behind this front. Ahead of the front and N of Hispaniola, a surface trough is supporting scattered showers between 58W and 74W. A frontal trough is well to the E, from 31N34W to 23.5N43W with scattered moderate convection N of 27N between 29W and 38W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are N of 26N between 25W and 48W with seas to 8 ft near 31N and near the front. Moderate to fresh trades are S of 17N between 35W and 60W with 6-8 ft seas in the wake of the tropical wave discussed above and with a building ridge reaching from the Canary Islands southwestward through 22N35W, then to the WNW to 27N53.5W. Winds are moderate or weaker with 4-7 ft seas across the remainder of the waters including under the ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, Melissa will become extratropical and move to well N of the area 40.4N 58.9W this afternoon. A cold front W of Melissa from 31N70.5W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba with fresh to strong winds and reinforcing seas behind it will quickly weaken today as it moves E and Melissa departs, reaching from 31N60W to near the Windward Passage by this evening where it will stall and dissipate into the weekend, then shift NW as a remnant trough through Sun night. Remnant seas from Melissa will more slowly subside through Sat. Another cold front may impact the region early next week. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC311026_C_KWBC_20251031102723_25559334-3113-TWDAT.txt ****0000007356**** AXNT20 KNHC 311026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Oct 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Melissa is centered near 35.9N 64.0W at 31/0900 UTC or 220 nm N of Bermuda, moving NE at 36 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are currently around 39 ft (12.0 m) just N of the area and W of Bermuda. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is now confined to N of the area within 43N71W to 47N62W to 34N56W to 33N66W. Melissa is rapidly moving toward the northeast. This general motion is expected to continue into Saturday, followed by a gradual slowdown and turn toward the east-northeast later this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to pass to the south of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland as a post-tropical cyclone tonight. Melissa is expected to become a strong post-tropical cyclone later today, with gradual weakening forecast over the weekend. Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to reach the coast of the Northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada today and persist into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 57W, south of 18.5N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Deeper convection has diminished during the past several hours with widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possible S of 19N between 50W and 62W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic at the coast of Senegal near 13N16.5W and extends southwestward to near 09N20.5W, where it transitions to ITCZ, continuing to 05N48W. Widely scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted on conventional satellite imagery from 03.5N to 10N between 11W and 28W, and from 01N to 09.5N between 28W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge has built across the Gulf in the wake of a departed cold front. Winds behind the front have diminished with moderate winds noted E of 87W and light to gentle winds W of 87W per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. A lingering area of locally rough seas is in the SE Gulf just N of the Yucatan Channel with slight seas in the far NW waters and moderate elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate N to NW winds and moderate seas will diminish and subside today. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Sat night into Sun, with fresh to locally strong winds and building seas behind the front. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle SW to off Veracruz, Mexico Sun morning, clearing the basin by Mon morning. Winds and seas behind the front should gradually decrease into midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras, with moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas behind it. A pair of surface trough is analyzed ESE of the front, one from 17N79.5W to 09N81W and the other from SW Haiti near 19N73W to northern Colombia at 10.5N75W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 11N including near the eastern end of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough, with similar activity noted within 30-60 nm of the eastern trough. Some additional convection is in the far SE Caribbean and near Trinidad and Tobago. Moderate E-SE winds are E of 72W, with mainly light to gentle winds between 72W and the western trough. Winds W of the western trough to the front are moderate to fresh. Seas are 3-5 ft E of the western trough, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will wash out today, becoming a stationary remnant trough into the weekend. Trade winds will freshen, locally strong, over the E Caribbean tonight into Sat as the pressure gradient between a tropical wave entering the region and a ridge building N of the area tightens. These winds will expand to the central Caribbean by Sat evening as the wave continues to move westward and the ridge further builds, with seas locally to rough. Easterly winds will diminish to moderate speeds early next week as the wave weakens and the ridge starts retreating eastward, loosening the pressure gradient. Meanwhile, another cold front may push into the NW Caribbean by early Mon, reaching from eastern Cuba to just offshore Nicaragua Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will follow the front, locally strong offshore Nicaragua into midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for the details related to Hurricane Melissa. Hurricane Melissa is N of the area near 35.9N 64.0W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northeast at 36 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 973 mb. A cold front is to the W of Melissa from 31N70.5W to 21.5N76.5W. Fresh to strong winds and reinforcing seas are behind this front. Ahead of the front and N of Hispaniola, a surface trough is supporting scattered showers between 58W and 74W. A frontal trough is well to the E, from 31N34W to 23.5N43W with scattered moderate convection N of 27N between 29W and 38W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are N of 26N between 25W and 48W with seas to 8 ft near 31N and near the front. Moderate to fresh trades are S of 17N between 35W and 60W with 6-8 ft seas in the wake of the tropical wave discussed above and with a building ridge reaching from the Canary Islands southwestward through 22N35W, then to the WNW to 27N53.5W. Winds are moderate or weaker with 4-7 ft seas across the remainder of the waters including under the ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, Melissa will become extratropical and move to well N of the area 40.4N 58.9W this afternoon. A cold front W of Melissa from 31N70.5W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba with fresh to strong winds and reinforcing seas behind it will quickly weaken today as it moves E and Melissa departs, reaching from 31N60W to near the Windward Passage by this evening where it will stall and dissipate into the weekend, then shift NW as a remnant trough through Sun night. Remnant seas from Melissa will more slowly subside through Sat. Another cold front may impact the region early next week. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC311802_C_KWBC_20251031180226_25559334-3150-TWDAT.txt ****0000007388**** AXNT20 KNHC 311802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Oct 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 59W south of 19N to inland Guyana near 06N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Satellite imagery and the Blended TPW imagery animation show that the wave is embedded within a deep envelop of atmospheric moisture. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 11N to 18N between 54W and 61W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are from 07N to 11N between 52W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends southwestward to near 09N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N30W,to 05N40W and to 06N49W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 20W and 34W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-32W, also between 35W-41W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 42W-46W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1021 mb high is analyzed over eastern Texas, with its associated ridging stretching east-southeastward across the area. Its related gradient is generally allowing for northerly winds across the basin, of gentle to moderate speeds east of 91W, and of light to gentle to speeds west of 91W, as noted by buoy observations and as depicted in recent Ascat satellite data passes. Latest altimeter satellite data passes indicate that seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in the northeast and in the southeastern sections of the basin. A very dry and stable continental airmass has settled in over the region inhibiting deep layer moisture, with no convection presently occurring over the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through tonight producing in general a light to gentle northerly wind flow. Winds will veer to the southeast and south over the western Gulf on Sat ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat night into Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front forecast to reach from the Florida Panhandle southwest to off Veracruz, Mexico Sun morning, clearing the basin by Mon morning. Winds and seas behind the front should gradually decrease into midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to 18N79W, where it begins to weaken to 17N81W, then transitions to shearline from there to near 11N83W. An Ascat satellite data pass from 1454Z reveals fresh to strong north winds west of the shearline to the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. The same Ascat pass indicates fresh northeast winds within about 120 nm northwest of the stationary frontal boundary. The Ascat satellite data passes generally show gentle to moderate winds over the rest of the basin, except for gentle northerly winds elsewhere west of the stationary frontal boundary. To the southeast of these features, a trough extends from southwestern Haiti to 15N75W and to 10N76W. Another trough is along 79W from 10N to 14N. A weak low to mid- level disturbance is in the eastern part of the basin near 64W. It is in advance of a rather decent looking tropical wave that is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of this feature. The Ascat satellite data passes generally show gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, except for gentle northerly winds elsewhere west of the stationary frontal boundary. Latest altimeter satellite data passes indicate seas in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for slightly lower seas of 2 to 4 ft from 11N to 15N west of 64W, and higher seas of 5 to 7 ft from 15N to 18N between 80W and 85W. For the forecast, a stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua will gradually dissipate by tonight. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are expected across the eastern Caribbean tonight into Sat, in the wake of a tropical wave moving across the region. These winds will expand to the central Caribbean by Sat night as the wave continues to move westward and a ridge reaches the northeastern Caribbean. Moderate to locally rough seas will be associated with the wave. By early next week, mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds will dominate the east and central Caribbean. Meanwhile, another cold front may push into the northwestern Caribbean by early Mon, stretching from eastern Cuba to just offshore Nicaragua Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will follow the front, locally strong offshore Nicaragua into midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Hurricane Melissa was declared post-tropical well north of the area at 15Z. Otherwise, a cold front is analyzed from near 31N68W southwestward to 25N72W, where it transitions to a stationary front the stretches southwestward to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are behind this front north of 26N. Fresh to strong southwest winds are north of 29N east of the front to near 61W along with seas of 11 to 18 ft in NW swell. A trough is ahead of the front along a position from 31N61W to 26N66W and to the eastern tip of Cuba. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm west of the trough from 25N to 26N, and also from 20N to 23N between 69W and 74W. Farther to the east, a surface trough is extends from 31N30W to near 23N37W. A broad deep layer trough is supporting it, with related upper dynamics sustaining an area of numerous moderate convection seen from 28.5N to 31N and between 26W and the surface trough. Elsewhere outside the surface trough, broad high pressure, anchored by a 1020 mb high center near 22N47W and a 1018 mb high center near 31N12N, covers the region north of about 13N and east of 65W to the northwest section of Africa. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 18N between 35W and 60W along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period northwest to north swell are elsewhere. Seas of 3 ft are between the Bahamas and Cuba. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will gradually dissipate by tonight, then shift westward as a remnant trough through Sun night. Rough to very rough seas generated by Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa continue to affect the N waters, mainly N of 28N between 60W and 70W. These seas will subside below 12 ft by this evening. Another cold front may impact the region early next week. Meanwhile, fresh winds and locally rough seas will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Sun as a tropical wave moves into the Caribbean with building high pressure to the northeast. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC312200CCA_C_KWBC_20251031220113_12124482-6599-TWDAT.txt ****0000007455**** AXNT20 KNHC 312200 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Oct 31 2025 Corrected Atlantic Ocean section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 59W south of 19N to inland Guyana near 06N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Satellite imagery and the Blended TPW imagery animation show that the wave is embedded within a deep envelop of atmospheric moisture. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 11N to 18N between 54W and 61W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are from 07N to 11N between 52W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends southwestward to near 09N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 07N30W, to 05N40W and to 06N49W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 20W and 34W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-32W, also between 35W-41W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 42W-46W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1021 mb high is analyzed over eastern Texas, with its associated ridging stretching east-southeastward across the area. Its related gradient is generally allowing for northerly winds across the basin, of gentle to moderate speeds east of 91W, and of light to gentle to speeds west of 91W, as noted by buoy observations and as depicted in recent Ascat satellite data passes. Latest altimeter satellite data passes indicate that seas are in the 2 to 4 ft range, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in the northeast and in the southeastern sections of the basin. A very dry and stable continental airmass has settled in over the region inhibiting deep layer moisture, with no convection presently occurring over the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf waters through tonight producing in general a light to gentle northerly wind flow. Winds will veer to the southeast and south over the western Gulf on Sat ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat night into Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front forecast to reach from the Florida Panhandle southwest to off Veracruz, Mexico Sun morning, clearing the basin by Mon morning. Winds and seas behind the front should gradually decrease into midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to 18N79W, where it begins to weaken to 17N81W, then transitions to shearline from there to near 11N83W. An Ascat satellite data pass from 1454Z reveals fresh to strong north winds west of the shearline to the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. The same Ascat pass indicates fresh northeast winds within about 120 nm northwest of the stationary frontal boundary. The Ascat satellite data passes generally show gentle to moderate winds over the rest of the basin, except for gentle northerly winds elsewhere west of the stationary frontal boundary. To the southeast of these features, a trough extends from southwestern Haiti to 15N75W and to 10N76W. Another trough is along 79W from 10N to 14N. A weak low to mid- level disturbance is in the eastern part of the basin near 64W. It is in advance of a rather decent looking tropical wave that is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of this feature. The Ascat satellite data passes generally show gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, except for gentle northerly winds elsewhere west of the stationary frontal boundary. Latest altimeter satellite data passes indicate seas in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for slightly lower seas of 2 to 4 ft from 11N to 15N west of 64W, and higher seas of 5 to 7 ft from 15N to 18N between 80W and 85W. For the forecast, a stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to near Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua will gradually dissipate by tonight. Fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are expected across the eastern Caribbean tonight into Sat, in the wake of a tropical wave moving across the region. These winds will expand to the central Caribbean by Sat night as the wave continues to move westward and a ridge reaches the northeastern Caribbean. Moderate to locally rough seas will be associated with the wave. By early next week, mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds will dominate the east and central Caribbean. Meanwhile, another cold front may push into the northwestern Caribbean by early Mon, stretching from eastern Cuba to just offshore Nicaragua Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will follow the front, locally strong offshore Nicaragua into midweek. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected Hurricane Melissa was declared post-tropical well north of the area at 15Z. Otherwise, a cold front is analyzed from near 31N68W southwestward to 25N72W, where it transitions to a stationary front then stretches southwestward to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are behind this front north of 26N. Fresh to strong southwest winds are north of 29N east of the front to near 61W along with seas of 11 to 18 ft in NW swell. A trough is ahead of the front along a position from 31N61W to 26N66W and to the eastern tip of Cuba. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm west of the trough from 25N to 26N, and also from 20N to 23N between 69W and 74W. Farther to the east, a surface trough is extends from 31N30W to near 23N37W. A broad deep layer trough is supporting it, with related upper dynamics sustaining an area of numerous moderate convection seen from 28.5N to 31N and between 26W and the surface trough. Elsewhere outside the surface trough, broad high pressure, anchored by a 1020 mb high center near 22N47W and a 1018 mb high center near 31N12N, covers the region north of about 13N and east of 65W to the northwest section of Africa. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 18N between 35W and 60W along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period northwest to north swell are elsewhere. Seas of 3 ft are between the Bahamas and Cuba. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will gradually dissipate by tonight, then shift westward as a remnant trough through Sun night. Rough to very rough seas generated by Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa continue to affect the N waters, mainly N of 28N between 60W and 70W. These seas will subside below 12 ft by this evening. Another cold front may impact the region early next week. Meanwhile, fresh winds and locally rough seas will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Sun as a tropical wave moves into the Caribbean with building high pressure to the northeast. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC312314_C_KWBC_20251031231530_25559334-3172-TWDAT.txt ****0000005381**** AXNT20 KNHC 312314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Nov 1 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 61W south of 19N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 21N between 56W and 64W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W to 10N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 06N48W. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W-42W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1020 mb high is analyzed over eastern Texas, with its associated ridging stretching east-southeastward across the basin. Its related gradient is generally allowing for northerly winds across the basin, of gentle to moderate speeds east of 91W, and of light to gentle to speeds west of 91W, as noted by buoy observations and as depicted in recent Ascat satellite data passes. Latest altimeter satellite data passes indicate that moderate seas prevail across the basin, with highest seas across the eastern half of the basin. A very dry and stable continental airmass has settled in over the region inhibiting deep layer moisture, with no convection presently occurring over the Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through tonight producing in general a light to gentle northerly wind flow. Winds will veer to the SE and S over the western Gulf on Sat ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat night into Sun. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the wake of the front forecast to reach from the Florida Panhandle to NE Mexico by Sun morning, and front central Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by Mon morning. Winds and seas behind the front should gradually decrease into midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave entering the eastern Caribbean. A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to 18N79W, where it begins to weaken to 17N81W, then transitions to shearline from there to near 11N83W. Latest Ascat satellite data pass reveals fresh to strong north winds west of the shearline to the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua, and fresh northeast winds within 120 nm northwest of the frontal boundary. Gentle to moderate winds over the rest of the basin. To the southeast of these features, a surface trough is analyzed along 75W and S of 17N. Latest altimeter satellite data passes indicate that moderate seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds between the shearline and the coast of Nicaragua will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by tonight. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are expected across the eastern Caribbean tonight into Sat, in the wake of a tropical wave moving across the region. These winds will expand to the central Caribbean by Sat night as the wave continues to move westward and a ridge reaches the NE Caribbean. Moderate to rough seas will be associated with the wave. By early next week, mainly moderate to fresh trade winds will dominate the east and central Caribbean. Meanwhile, another cold front may push into the NW Caribbean by early Tue while the above mentioned tropical wave may reach the western Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening frontal boundary extends from 31N63W to 21N75W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N59W to 21N72W. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds and rough seas are behind the front/trough. Fresh to strong southwest winds are north of 29N east of the front to near 56W along with rough to very rough seas in NW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 100 nm of the front/trough with fresh winds and rough seas. Farther to the east, a surface trough is analyzed from 30N30W to near 23N37W. A broad deep layer trough is supporting it, with related upper dynamics sustaining an area of scattered moderate convection from 26N to 31N and between 25W and the trough. Elsewhere, a broad high pressure, anchored by a 1019 mb high center near 25N53W, covers the region. Moderate to fresh trades are south of 18N between 35W and 60W. Moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will gradually dissipate tonight into Sat, then shift westward as a remnant trough through Mon. Rough to very rough seas generated by Post-Tropical Cyclone Melissa that are still affecting the NE waters will subside below 12 ft by this evening. Another cold front may impact the region early next week. Meanwhile, fresh winds and rough seas will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Sun as a tropical wave moves into the Caribbean with building high pressure to the NE. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################