--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC300517_C_KWBC_20260530051805_49676782-4315-TWDAT.txt ****0000006729**** AXNT20 KNHC 300517 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat May 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0505 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the Southwest North Atlantic waters Sat night into early next week. A tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds on either side of the cold front Sat night through Sun night, north of 30N and between 55W and 70W. Rough to locally very rough seas are expected with these winds. Conditions will improve Mon. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along 14W, south of 15N based on recent satellite imagery, total precipitable water and tropical wave guidance. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N and east of 27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 11N and between 45W and 65W. A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 73W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave over the Caribbean waters. However, scattered moderate to strong convection is inland across Colombia and far western Venezuela on either side of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, continues southwestward to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 05N35W and then to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is present near the ITCZ between 30W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper level trough over the western Gulf and a broad surface trough over the central Gulf combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over a good portion of the eastern half of the basin. Heavy rainfall is also affecting parts of Yucatan, Central America and Florida. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient results in moderate or lighter winds and slight to locally moderate seas. However, stronger winds and higher seas can occur near the strongest storms. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. This system will sustain gentle to moderate E to SE winds through Tue. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in the central Gulf through the same period. A pronounced deep-layered upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with a very warm, humid and unstable airmass will continue to support periodic showers and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft and diurnal heating combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Cuba, Hispaniola, Yucatan and Central America. A strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh breezes and moderate seas are found in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean and NW Caribbean, mainly south of 20N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the central Caribbean through tonight before gradually diminishing in areal coverage on Sat. Moderate E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras are going to pulse to fresh speeds during the night through Mon night, then to strong speeds Tue night and again Wed night. The aforementioned ridge is going to weaken as a couple of frontal boundaries move across the western Atlantic. This will yield moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the basin through Tue, except the south-central Caribbean, where fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist. Looking ahead, a tropical wave is forecast to reach the Windward Islands by Sat afternoon, leading to increased shower activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N61W to 29N72W, followed by a stationary front to the Georgia coast. Scattered showers are seen near these boundaries. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to locally strong SW winds are occurring ahead of the fronts to 40W and north of 27N. Seas in these waters are 5-10 ft, with the highest seas near 31N54W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic are dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure system centered between the Azores and Madeira Island. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa sustain fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and rough seas from 17N to 29N and east of 30W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 20N and between the Lesser Antilles and 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge over the western Atlantic will support gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas south of 26N through Tue. For the waters north of 26N and east of 70W, two cold fronts migrating eastward across the north Atlantic are going to bring fresh to strong winds along with rough seas through tonight, then again from Sat night through Sun night. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale force on either side of the second cold front Sat night through Sun night. As a result, a Gale Warning has been issued. Rough to very tough seas could accompany the strongest winds. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC300552_C_KWBC_20260530055305_49676782-4319-TWDAT.txt ****0000006729**** AXNT20 KNHC 300552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat May 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0505 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the Southwest North Atlantic waters Sat night into early next week. A tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds on either side of the cold front Sat night through Sun night, north of 30N and between 55W and 70W. Rough to locally very rough seas are expected with these winds. Conditions will improve Mon. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along 14W, south of 15N based on recent satellite imagery, total precipitable water and tropical wave guidance. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N and east of 27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 11N and between 45W and 65W. A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 73W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave over the Caribbean waters. However, scattered moderate to strong convection is inland across Colombia and far western Venezuela on either side of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, continues southwestward to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 05N35W and then to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is present near the ITCZ between 30W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper level trough over the western Gulf and a broad surface trough over the central Gulf combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over a good portion of the eastern half of the basin. Heavy rainfall is also affecting parts of Yucatan, Central America and Florida. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient results in moderate or lighter winds and slight to locally moderate seas. However, stronger winds and higher seas can occur near the strongest storms. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. This system will sustain gentle to moderate E to SE winds through Tue. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in the central Gulf through the same period. A pronounced deep-layered upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with a very warm, humid and unstable airmass will continue to support periodic showers and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft and diurnal heating combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Cuba, Hispaniola, Yucatan and Central America. A strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh breezes and moderate seas are found in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean and NW Caribbean, mainly south of 20N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will sustain fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the central Caribbean through tonight before gradually diminishing in areal coverage on Sat. Moderate E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras are going to pulse to fresh speeds during the night through Mon night, then to strong speeds Tue night and again Wed night. The aforementioned ridge is going to weaken as a couple of frontal boundaries move across the western Atlantic. This will yield moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas across most of the basin through Tue, except the south-central Caribbean, where fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist. Looking ahead, a tropical wave is forecast to reach the Windward Islands by Sat afternoon, leading to increased shower activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N61W to 29N72W, followed by a stationary front to the Georgia coast. Scattered showers are seen near these boundaries. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to locally strong SW winds are occurring ahead of the fronts to 40W and north of 27N. Seas in these waters are 5-10 ft, with the highest seas near 31N54W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic are dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure system centered between the Azores and Madeira Island. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa sustain fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and rough seas from 17N to 29N and east of 30W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 20N and between the Lesser Antilles and 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge over the western Atlantic will support gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas south of 26N through Tue. For the waters north of 26N and east of 70W, two cold fronts migrating eastward across the north Atlantic are going to bring fresh to strong winds along with rough seas through tonight, then again from Sat night through Sun night. Winds are forecast to reach minimal gale force on either side of the second cold front Sat night through Sun night. As a result, a Gale Warning has been issued. Rough to very rough seas could accompany the strongest winds. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC301037_C_KWBC_20260530103807_49676782-4332-TWDAT.txt ****0000006313**** AXNT20 KNHC 301037 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat May 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into early next week. A tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds on either side of the cold front early Sun, south-southeast of Bermuda near 30N63W. Strong to near-gale force winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected mainly along and ahead of the front, north of 26N. Conditions will improve Mon as the front weakens and high pressure builds in its wake. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along 16W, south of 15N based on recent satellite imagery, total precipitable water and tropical wave guidance. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 10W and 20W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 48W and 57W. A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 74W, south of 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave over the Caribbean waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W, continues southwestward to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 03N51W. No significant convection is observed other than what was already discussed in the tropical wave section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper level trough over the western Gulf and a broad surface trough over the central Gulf combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over a good portion of the eastern half of the basin. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient results in moderate or lighter winds and slight to locally moderate seas. However, stronger winds and higher seas can occur near the strongest storms. For the forecast, the pattern will sustain gentle to moderate E to SE winds through mid week. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in the central Gulf through the same period. A pronounced deep-layered upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with a very warm, humid and unstable airmass will continue to support periodic showers and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the far southwest Caribbean, east of San Andres Island. No other significant convection is observed at this time. A strong Atlantic ridge over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh breezes and moderate seas are found in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean and NW Caribbean, mainly south of 20N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the basin through the early part of the week, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. Looking ahead, the area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will expand across the central Caribbean Tue and Wed as the ridge builds north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A few thunderstorms are active this morning near a 1011 mb low pressure area off northeast Florida. The low is along a stationary front between northeast Florida and Bermuda, north of a ridge along 25N. Broad ridging extends from 1028 mb high pressure near 30N30W to the near the Bahamas. Fresh to strong SW winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are likely within 300 nm east of the front, north of 28N. Mainly fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of the ridge over the deep tropics west of 35W, with fresh to strong NE winds and 6-9 ft seas east of 35W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere. A large area of Saharan dust is also noted over the Atlantic north of 10N and east of 50W, which is likely suppressing convection over the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the low pressure as it moves eastward through tonight ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the area. The combined fronts will shift eastward, reaching from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by early Sun. Expect strong winds and rough to very rough seas along and ahead of the front north of 25N Sun, with gale-force winds south of Bermuda near 30N63W by Sun afternoon. The front will weaken and stall from 31N57W to 27N65W by early Mon. Winds and seas diminish west of the front as high pressure builds between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Looking ahead, a second low pressure area and accompanying front may move off northeast Florida by late Mon and shift eastward toward Bermuda through mid week, accompanied fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the waters north of 27N. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC301706_C_KWBC_20260530170708_49676782-4346-TWDAT.txt ****0000006785**** AXNT20 KNHC 301706 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat May 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Sunday. A tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds on either side of the cold front Sun afternoon, south and southeast of Bermuda generally N of 29N between 55W and 65W. Strong to near- gale force winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected mainly along and ahead of the front, north of 26N. Conditions will improve Mon as the front weakens and high pressure builds in its wake. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An east Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 17W, south of 16N. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 10W and 21W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 61W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 13N between 57W and 62W. A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 75W, south of 16N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 06N22W. The ITCZ extends from 06N22W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and within 200 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 22W westward. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper level trough over the western Gulf and a broad surface trough over the central to SW Gulf combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over a the eastern half of the basin. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient results in moderate or lighter winds and slight seas. However, stronger winds and higher seas can occur within stronger thunderstorms. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. This system will sustain gentle to moderate E to SE winds through midweek. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in the central Gulf through the same period. A pronounced deep-layered upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with a very warm, humid and unstable airmass will continue to support rounds of showers and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through at least Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the far southwest Caribbean near the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. In the NW Caribbean, scattered moderate to strong convection is developing along a surface trough analyzed from the Gulf of Honduras along the coasts of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. No other significant convection is observed at this time. A strong Atlantic ridge extends southwestward into the Caribbean, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean, confirmed by scatterometer and altimeter data from this morning. Moderate to fresh breezes and moderate seas are found in the rest of the basin away from the lee of Cuba, where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the basin through the early part of the next week, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. Looking ahead, the area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will expand across the central Caribbean Tue and Wed as the ridge builds north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends along 30-31N from near 58W to a 1012 mb low near 31N78W, with a dissipating stationary front between the low and the GA coast. A surface trough extends from the low to the northern Bahamas, and is supporting scattered moderate convection along and east of the trough. SW winds ahead of the front, generally N of 27N between 55W and 63W are increasing to fresh to strong speeds while seas build to 7-9 ft. Ridging prevails across much of the remaining Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6-9 ft seas prevail N of 14N and E of 25W, confirmed by scatterometer data from this morning. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across much of the Atlantic W of 25W and S of 22N. The remainder of the basin away from any fronts or other features is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a few thunderstorms are active near a 1012 mb low pressure area located off northeast Florida. The low is along a stationary front extending from 31N58W to the low center. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the low pressure as it moves eastward through tonight ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the area. The combined fronts will shift eastward, reaching from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by early Sun. Expect strong winds and rough to very rough seas along and ahead of the front north of 25N Sun, with gale-force winds south of Bermuda near 30N63W by Sun afternoon. The front will weaken and stall from 31N57W to 27N65W by early Mon. Winds and seas diminish west of the front as high pressure builds between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Looking ahead, a second low pressure area and accompanying front may move off northeast Florida by late Mon and shift eastward toward Bermuda through mid week, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the waters north of 27N. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################