--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-03-22 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC220602_C_KWBC_20260322060306_29294990-298-TWDAT.txt ****0000005049**** AXNT20 KNHC 220602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Mar 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 02N19W, where the ITCZ begins and continues to 01N32W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 04W and 50W. GULF OF AMERICA... A 1019 mb high pressure centered in the NE Gulf remains in control of the regional weather conditions. Gentle anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas generally prevail E of 90W. In the Yucatan Channel and N of the Yucatan Peninsula to 23N, winds are moderate from the east and seas 3-4 ft while moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing off the Yucatan Peninsula and into the E Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, moderate SSE winds prevail offshore Mexico and Texas where seas are 3-4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure over the northeastern Gulf will maintain mostly moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf into the middle of next week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night through the middle of next week. This pattern will also support a light to gentle winds and slight seas over the eastern Gulf through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Surface high pressure over the NE Gulf of America extends a ridge to the NW Caribbean while lower pressure dominates the remainder basin due to the passage of a cold front, which tail is moving across the E Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage tonight. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from southern Puerto Rico SW to 14N73W. Building high pressure over the Bahamas in the wake of the front is supporting fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of southern Cuba and the Windward Passage where seas are 5-7 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are also just west of the tail of the front over the Dominican Republic adjacent waters to about 17N. Ahead of the front and into the E Caribbean, winds are moderate or weaker from the east. Scattered to isolated showers are likely tonight into Sun morning over the NE Caribbean due to the passage of the front. For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will support moderate to locally strong NE winds south of Cuba, the Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola through Mon. As the high pressure moves slightly eastward, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia Mon through Thu, mainly at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slow moving cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda near 31N62W to Hispaniola, which is generating scattered heavy showers ahead of it to about 54W and N of 22N. High pressure building over the northern Bahamas in the wake of the front continues to reinforce fresh to strong NW winds behind the front N of 27N, extending W to about 66W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. Ahead of the front, a broad surface ridge extending from a 1025 mb high located near 38N38W, is supporting fresh to near gale force SW winds N of 23N and to about 52W. Seas ahead the front are 8-12 ft. Over the far E subtropical Atlantic, a strong low pressure N of the region continues to support fresh to near gale force N to NW winds from the Canary Islands to about 32W where seas are 11 to 14 ft. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are ahead of the Canary Islands along with 8 to 11 ft seas. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas moderate to rough to 10 ft in northerly swell. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds and rough seas on either side of the cold front, and mainly north of 25N, will continue to affect the offshore waters from west to east through Sun as the front continues to move eastward. This system is forecast to reach from 31N57W to Puerto Rico by Sun morning, then will move into the central Atlantic Mon through Tue while gradually dissipating. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters of northeast Florida Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters north of 27N into the middle of the next week before starting to diminish Wed night as the front lifts northward. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC220924_C_KWBC_20260322092506_16515500-9915-TWDAT.txt ****0000004880**** AXNT20 KNHC 220924 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Mar 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W and continues southwestward to 02N20W, where the ITCZ begins and continues to 01N50W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 03N east of 50W. GULF OF AMERICA... A 1019 mb high pressure is centered in the east-central Gulf near 26N86W. A trough is over the Yucatan Channel. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Channel with 3-5 ft seas, and gentle to moderate southerly breezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure over the east-central Gulf will maintain mostly moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf through the middle of the week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night through the middle of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic to south of Haiti. A few showers are likely occurring just ahead of the front near Puerto Rico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds across and downwind the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba with 5-7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere over the western Caribbean. Light breezes and 1-3 ft seas are evident over the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, the front will continue to move eastward across the far northeast Caribbean. Building high pressure following the front over the western Atlantic will support moderate to locally strong NE winds south of Cuba, the Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola through Mon. As the high pressure moves slightly eastward, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia Mon through Thu, mainly at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slow moving cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda near 31N61W to the eastern tip of Hispaniola, which is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms within 90 nm ahead of the front north of 25N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated winds to gale force ahead of the front near 29N62W, but this was likely a short-lived event associated with thunderstorms active in this region. The upper dynamics are lifting to the northeast, and this thunderstorm activity is starting to taper off. The scatterometer pass also indicated fresh to strong winds following the front with strong to near-gale force SW winds ahead of the front north of 25N between 50W and 65W. Sofar buoys and an recent altimeter satellite passes showed 7 to 11 ft seas in this area as well. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere north of 22N and west of 50W. Broad ridging covers the Atlantic south of 31N and west of 25W, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds in this area. Farther east, a 996 mb low pressure area continues to move between Madeira and the Canary Islands, supporting fresh to strong N winds north of 25N and east of 25W, and moderate N winds south of 25N and east of 25W. Seas are 10-14 ft north of 25N and east of 25W, and 7-10 ft elsewhere east of 50W. For the forecast west of 55W, Fresh to strong winds and rough seas on either side of the front, mainly north of 25N, will continue to affect the offshore waters from west to east through tonight as the front continues to move eastward. This system is forecast to reach from 31N55W to Virgin Islands by this evening, then will move into the central Atlantic Mon through Tue while gradually dissipating. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters north of 27N into the middle of the next week before starting to diminish Wed night as the front lifts northward. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC221631_C_KWBC_20260322163210_29294990-324-TWDAT.txt ****0000004047**** AXNT20 KNHC 221631 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Mar 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1610 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 03N13W, where the ITCZ begins and continues to 01S49W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 27W. GULF OF AMERICA... 1020 mb high pressure centered in the E Gulf provides for gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 2-4 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf through mid-week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night through mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough extends from SE Puerto Rico to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N74W to the coast of Colombia near 11N74W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds persist north of the surface trough, including within the Mona Passage, Windward Passage, and lee of Cuba. Seas are 4-7 ft in these regions. Elsewhere in the western Caribbean, NE winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the central and eastern Caribbean south and east of the trough, trades are light to gentle with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh NE winds south of Cuba, the Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola into Mon night. As the high pressure moves slightly eastward Mon, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will start to pulse nightly offshore Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 1006 mb low pressure near 32N57W to eastern Puerto Rico. Satellite scatterometer indicates strong to near-gale force SE winds north of 22N and east of the front to 52W. North of 25N and west of the front to 65W, fresh to strong NW winds are evident on satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 8-11 ft north of 22N between 50W and 70W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 25N between 52W and 57W. In the eastern Atlantic, seas of 8-11 ft are analyzed across the basin east of 45W in NE swell generated by a weakening 999 mb low near the Canary Islands. Seas range from 12-14 ft north of 27N between 20W and 28W. Winds in the far NE Atlantic remain near fresh speeds along the southern side of the low pressure. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds and rough seas on both sides of the aforementioned cold front north of 25N will continue to affect the offshore waters from west to east into early Mon as the front continues to move eastward. The cold front is forecast to reach from 31N55W to Virgin Islands by this evening, then will move into the central Atlantic Mon through Tue while gradually dissipating. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters north of 28N into mid-week before starting to diminish as the front lifts northward. $$ Mahoney ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC222219_C_KWBC_20260322222010_16515500-9954-TWDAT.txt ****0000003653**** AXNT20 KNHC 222219 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Mar 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 03N13W, where the ITCZ begins and continues to 01S49W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 27W. GULF OF AMERICA... 1020 mb high pressure centered in the E Gulf provides for gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 2-4 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf into late week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night through mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough extends from SE Puerto Rico near 18N66W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 13N74W to the coast of Colombia near 11N74W. Fresh to strong NE winds persist north of the surface trough, including within the Mona Passage, Windward Passage, and lee of Cuba. Seas are 4-7 ft in these regions. Elsewhere in the western Caribbean, NE winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the central and eastern Caribbean south and east of the trough, trades are light to gentle with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong NE winds south of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola into Mon night. Then, the high pressure will drift east, and fresh to locally strong winds will pulse nightly into late week offshore Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 1006 mb low pressure near 33N54W to eastern Puerto Rico. Satellite scatterometer data indicates strong to near-gale force SE winds north of 22N and east of the front to 50W. North of 25N and west of the front to 65W, fresh to strong NW winds are evident on satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 8-12 ft north of 22N between 50W and 65W. In the eastern Atlantic, seas of 8-11 ft are analyzed across the basin east of 45W in NE swell generated by a weakening 999 mb low near the Canary Islands. Seas range from 12-14 ft north of 27N between 20W and 28W. Winds in the far NE Atlantic remain near fresh speeds along the southern side of the low pressure. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to move into the central Atlantic Mon through Tue while gradually dissipating. A new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters north of 28N into mid-week before the front lifts northward. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################