--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC060558_C_KWBC_20261006055907_4522426-5753-TWDAT.txt ****0000005954**** AXNT20 KNHC 060558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92): A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for development, a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The system is expected to drift east-northeastward through the middle portion of the week before turning northward. It is too early to determine specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. Chances of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours are high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 61W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 55W and 62W. This wave is also enhancing fresh to strong E winds across and in between the Lesser Antilles. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along 86W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active over Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at 15N17W and extends to 06N43W. The ITCZ extends from 06N43W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 15N and E of 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Invest AL92. A frontal boundary extends from the Big Bend of FL across the northern Gulf to the coastal border of the United States and Mexico. A 1011 mb low is analyzed near 29N87W. A surface trough is also analyzed across the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche, with another surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is along and near each of these features. Moderate to fresh, locally strong NE winds and moderate seas are N and W of the front. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a trough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late Tue ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf through Wed before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, gradual development of a low E of Tampico is becoming more likely, and a a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. Regardless of development, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. Mariners should monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough over the W Caribbean supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of Cuba and Hispaniola as well as the adjacent coastal waters. Broad ridging over the western Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong E to NE winds over the south-central and eastern Caribbean, as noted in recent scatterometer satellite data. Mostly moderate E to SE winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the Caribbean. For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will likely pulse to strong speeds at night through tonight. Afterward, a cold front will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin through Thu. High pressure is forecast to develop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly winds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri, then moderate to fresh Fri night through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary extending off the NE FL coast supports scattered moderate convection along the central and northern FL coast. In the central to eastern Atlantic, a surface trough SW of the Azores is interacting with an upper level low overhead to support showers along and near the trough axis. Elsewhere, broad ridging across the Atlantic supports gentle to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas across much of the basin. E winds are fresh to strong E of the Lesser Antilles, enhanced by a tropical wave in the region. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move slowly E over the area tonight and early Tue, stalling from Bermuda to NE Florida Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. Otherwise, by Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC061058_C_KWBC_20261006105910_4522426-5774-TWDAT.txt ****0000005834**** AXNT20 KNHC 061058 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92): Gradual development of a low near Tampico, Mexico is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. Regardless of development, fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 20N to 25N between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere in the Bay of Campeche. Chances of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours are high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with axis near 63W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 58W and 64W. The wave is also enhancing fresh to strong E winds across the central Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends to 12N30W to 07N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N44W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 16N between 16W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Invest AL92. A weak cold front extends from Cape Canaveral to just N of Tampa Bay where it stalls to a 1010 mb low near 29N86W to 28N94W to 25N97W. A surface trough then continues from the tail of the front along the E Mexico offshores to Invest AL92 low to the Bay of Campeche. Observations across the northern Gulf coastal waters depict fresh to strong NE winds N of the front and slight to moderate seas. Strong convection in the vicinity of AL92 suggest stronger gusty winds and rough seas are likely. Elsewhere, ahead of these boundaries, winds are moderate or weaker, and seas slight to moderate. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a trough along the E Mexican offshores through today. Weak surface ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late today ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf through Wed before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, gradual development of a low NE of Tampico is becoming more likely, and a a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. Regardless of development, fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. Mariners should monitor the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh E to SE winds prevail in the northwest and central Caribbean being supported by weak 1017 mb high to the SE of Bermuda. Moderate to fresh winds are also in the far E basin due to the passage of a tropical wave that is bringing showers and isolated tstms to the central Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters. Middle level diffluent flow is generating scattered showers in the Windward Passage. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers are offshore Panama associated with the E extension of the Pacific monsoon. For the forecast, weak ridging SE of Bermuda will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central Caribbean through this morning. Afterward, a cold front will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin through early Thu. High pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly winds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri, then moderate to fresh Fri night through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front stalls near 30N73W and extends to 30N79W where it transitions to a cold front that extends to Cape Canaveral, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstms along with fresh NE winds are behind the front. Weak surface ridging dominates the remainder subtropical waters, providing moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front will transition to a cold front and move slowly E over the area today, then stall from Bermuda to NE Florida tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as a low pressure, possible tropical cyclone, moves northward across the Gulf of America. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC061641_C_KWBC_20261006164213_4522426-5796-TWDAT.txt ****0000007652**** AXNT20 KNHC 061641 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Gulf of America (Invest AL92): Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organization in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of America near 22N96W. Continued development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. Regardless of development, fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 19N to 26N between 93W and 97W. Chances of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours are high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean with an axis near 64.5W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 60W and 65W. The wave is also enhancing fresh to strong E to SE winds across the central Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters, as noted on recent scatterometer satellite data. A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is near 18W, extending from 06N to 16N. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the northern end of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and extends to 14.5N27W to 07.5N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N40W to 06N46W to 10N58W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 17N between 23W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Invest AL92. A 1008 low is located over the northeastern Gulf near 29.5N86.5W, and a stationary front extends toward the southeast toward the Big Bend of Florida, and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are occurring north of these features. The stationary front also extends toward the west and southwest, paralleling the northern and western Gulf Coast. A surface trough then continues from the tail of the front along the E Mexico offshores to Invest AL92 low to the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong NE to NW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted north and west of these features, just offshore of Texas and eastern Mexico. Strong convection in the vicinity of AL92 also suggest stronger gusty winds and rough seas are likely. Elsewhere, a surface trough extends from the south-central basin into the eastern bay of Campeche, and mainly moderate breezes are noted in this region. Otherwise, ahead of these boundaries, winds are moderate or weaker, and seas slight to moderate. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a trough along the E Mexican offshores through today. Weak surface ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late today ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf through Wed before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, continued development of a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is expected, and a tropical depression is anticipated to form over the next day or so while it drifts eastward. The low pressure area could bring gusty winds and areas of heavy rain to the western portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to turn to the north or northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast by the end of the week. Regardless of development, fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong NE to SE winds are occurring over the eastern basin as noted on recent scatterometer data, associated with a tropical wave progressing westward. Strong thunderstorms are also noted in this vicinity. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade winds are occurring across much of the rest of the basin, supported by the pressure gradient between a 1009 mb low over the south-central Caribbean and high pressure to the northeast. Locally fresh winds and 5-7 ft seas are occurring offshore of northwest Colombia. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are offshore Panama associated with the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, weak ridging SE of Bermuda will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central Caribbean through this morning. Afterward, a cold front will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin through early Thu. High pressure is forecast to redevelop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the trades over the central Caribbean to fresh speeds Fri, then moderate to fresh Fri night through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1013 mb low pressure is located off the northeastern coast of Florida near 30.5N76.5W, and a stationary front extends eastward to 31N71.5W, and southwestward into central Florida. Mainly moderate NE to E winds are noted north of the front, though fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring immediately north of the low, as noted on recent scatterometer data. Elsewhere, a surface trough in the central Atlantic extends from a 1015 mb low near 31N37W to 25N40W to 27N45W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are occurring south and east of this feature, while fresh to locally strong NW to W winds are occurring to the north and west. Recent buoy and altimeter data depict 3 to 5 ft seas in this region. Weak ridging prevails over the rest of the subtropical and tropical waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front will transition to a cold front and move slowly eastward across the area today, then stall from Bermuda to NE Florida tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow the front, remaining off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. By Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds, continuing Sat and Sat night. Otherwise, winds will reach fresh to strong speeds again off NE Florida late on Fri as a low pressure, possible tropical cyclone, moves northward across the Gulf of America. $$ ADAMS ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################