--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC050321_C_KWBC_20260605032221_9109880-4874-TWDAT.txt ****0000005519**** AXNT20 KNHC 050321 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Jun 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between the 1030 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores and lower pressures in northwest Africa result in strong to gale-force northerly winds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zones. Scatterometer data from 04/2132Z UTC showed strong to gale-force winds peaking at 34 kt occurring off the coast of Morocco. Gale- force winds are expected to occur through 05/0000 UTC with severe gusts. These winds will produce rough seas 10 ft and higher. Similar conditions will persist into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W, south of 13N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 09N and between 16W and 24W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W, south of 12N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 02N to 08N and between 37W and 45W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 12N and between 45W and 60W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. No deep convection is noted over the Caribbean waters. The wave is enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity across northern South America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 04N43W, and then from 03N45W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. The convection near these features has been described in the TROPICAL WAVES section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extend through the Florida Straits to near 25N86W in the eastern Gulf. Meanwhile, a weak surface is analyzed along 89W, from the Yucatan peninsula to 28N87W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen over the SE Gulf waters, while diurnal storms across the Gulf coast of Mexico extend into the nearshore waters. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are present in the northern and eastern Gulf waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening over the south-central and southeast Gulf. Winds and seas will diminish starting Fri as a ridge builds from the western Atlantic into the eastern Gulf. This pattern will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas into early next week, except for occasionally fresh to strong pulses off northwest Yucatan during the evenings. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1030 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores extends southwestward to the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the south- central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The storm activity is diminishing in the SW Caribbean, while a few showers are seen in the lee of Cuba. Pockets of low-level moisture are also evident across the basin sustaining fast-moving, shallow showers. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The exceptions will be fresh to strong pulses off western Venezuela tonight, and in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Fri night. Fresh to strong SE winds and building are possible over the northwest and north-central Caribbean late Sat through early next week as the Atlantic ridge rebuilds north of area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the far northeast Atlantic. A cold front extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas, followed by a stationary front to the Florida Straits. Scattered showers are present ahead of the front, especially north of 27N. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to locally fresh and moderate seas across much of the central and western tropical Atlantic. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate Fri into Sat, as high pressure builds across the area. This pattern will allow gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into early next week. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC050931_C_KWBC_20260605093216_32440682-1904-TWDAT.txt ****0000005840**** AXNT20 KNHC 050931 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Jun 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high pressure system centered southwest of the Azores near 34N36W and lower pressures in northwest Africa supports strong to gale- force northerly winds in the marine zone of Agadir. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds off the coast of Morocco. Gale-force winds are expected to occur through 05/0000 UTC, with severe gusts. These winds will create rough seas of 10 ft and higher. Similar conditions will continue into the weekend. For more details, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 20W, south of 13N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 08N between 18W and 25W. A tropical wave is along 45W, south of 12N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 04N to 09N between 40W and 50W, more concentrated on the east side of the wave axis. Moderate to fresh winds are associated with the wave. Another tropical wave is along 57W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis S of 11N. This tropical wave will move across the Windward Islands tonight into Sat increasing the likelihood of showers. A tropical wave is over the eastern caribbean along 70W, south of 15N, moving westward at 15 kt. Convection is limited over the Caribbean waters. Currently, the wave appears to enhance convection over Lake Maracaibo in western Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 06N27W. The ITCZ extends from 06N27W to 04N40W to the coast of Brazil near 00N50W. The convection in this area is mainly associated with the tropical waves previously mentioned. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf and north of a stationary front that extends across western Cuba into the SE Gulf to near 23N87W. Similar wind speeds are also noted over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and in the NW Gulf north of 28N between 92W and 95W. Moderate to rough seas are within the strongest winds, except in the Bay of Campeche where slight to moderate seas are noted. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the frontal boundary. For the forecast, the fresh to strong E to SE winds over the eastern Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds later today as the Atlantic ridge builds westward across the Gulf region. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will allow moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure located near 34N36W, reaches the NE Caribbean. The ridge, combined with the Colombian low, supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the south-central Caribbean. Meanwhile, a stationary front extends across western Cuba and the SE Gulf of America. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near the front. Farther south, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are observed in the Gulf of Honduras likely due to the pressure gradient between high pressure over the SE of the United States and a broad are of low pressure in the eastern Pacific, offshore of Central America. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the Caribbean into Sat as the Atlantic ridge north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. The exception will be fresh to strong pulses in the Gulf of Honduras tonight. Then, winds will begin to increase again over the central Caribbean by Sat night, and over the NW part of the basin early next week as the Atlantic ridge rebuilds north of area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the Meteo-France forecast region. A frontal boundary extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the front, particularly north of 27N. High pressure located over the SE of the United States follows this system. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow N of 20N E of front to about 30W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are found north of 18N and east of 30W. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are S of 20N between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate late today into Sat, as high pressure builds across the area. This pattern will allow gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas into early next week. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################