--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-04-22 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC220403_C_KWBC_20260422040437_49676782-1705-TWDAT.txt ****0000003928**** AXNT20 KNHC 220403 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Apr 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 03N30W. The ITCZ extends from 03N30W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N and east of 29W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The pressure gradient between an extensive ridge over the eastern United States and lower pressures associated with a frontal boundary that extends from the NW Atlantic to western Cuba support fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas over the SE Gulf waters, including the Florida Straits. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough seas will gradually diminish tonight in the SE Gulf. High pressure will build across the Gulf, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds basin- wide by Wed night, then prevailing through late week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Pockets of low-level moisture support isolated showers across the Caribbean Sea. The presence of a frontal boundary just north of the basin allows for a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean, supporting moderate to locally strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, weak Atlantic high pressure will continue N of the basin and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient over the Caribbean basin into the weekend. Fresh NE winds are expected tonight through Wed night across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba as a late-season cold front moves across Cuba, then dissipates along the N coast of Hispaniola Wed night into Thu. Tranquil marine conditions are expected across the entire basin Fri through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a gale-force low pressure in the NW Atlantic to 31N58W and continues southwestward to the SE Bahamas and central Cuba. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted ahead of this boundary, especially north of 24N. Fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft are occurring behind the front. However, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are found under the ridge off the SE United States, mainly north of 29N and west of 74W. Farther east, northerly swell associated with a storm-force low pressure well north of the Azores supports rough seas over the far NE Atlantic, especially north of 24N and east of 36W. Elsewhere, a weak high pressure dominates sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will continue to follow the aforementioned front as it moves eastward through Wed night. Conditions will gradually improve late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls Fri over the SE waters. High pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda for the end of the week, bringing tranquil conditions to area waters through the weekend. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC220823_C_KWBC_20260422082340_47448518-1683-TWDAT.txt ****0000003576**** AXNT20 KNHC 220823 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Apr 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0820 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N14W and continues southwestward to 01N30W. The ITCZ extends from 01N30W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted south of 06N and east of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the SE United States, and a surface trough south of Cuba is supporting fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-10 ft, over the SE Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are found over the remainder of the Gulf waters. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas will gradually diminish today in the SE Gulf. High pressure will build across the Gulf, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds basin- wide by tonight, then prevailing through late week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean basin. Moderate to locally fresh winds are found S of Cuba and just off the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted. Seas are mainly in the 3-4 ft range, reaching 5 ft off the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, weak Atlantic high pressure will continue N of the basin and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient over the Caribbean basin into the weekend. Fresh NE winds are expected through tonight across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba as a late-season cold front moves across Cuba, then dissipates along the N coast of Hispaniola Wed night into Thu. Tranquil marine conditions are expected across the entire basin Fri through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N57W to eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong winds prevail across much of the waters west of the front, except for gentle to moderate winds N of 28N and W of 65W. The front has ushered in a set of northerly swell, with seas in the 8-10 ft range west of the front, except for 4-6 ft seas in the area of gentle to moderate winds. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 30N42W. There is a weak pressure gradient over these waters, with mainly light to gentle winds. One exception is due south of the high center, where the pressure gradient is slightly tighter between the high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ, supporting moderate winds. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range N of 23N and E of 40W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it moves eastward through tonight. Conditions will gradually improve late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls Fri over the SE waters. High pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and Bermuda for the end of the week, bringing tranquil conditions to area waters through the weekend. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC221816_C_KWBC_20260422181743_47448518-1709-TWDAT.txt ****0000004329**** AXNT20 KNHC 221816 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Apr 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of northern Senegal and Gambia, then curves southwestward to 02N31W. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 02N31W to 01N41W, then turns northwestward to near the coast of Suriname. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 06N east of 21W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 155 nm north of the ITCZ west of 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Convergent southerly winds are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms southeast of New Orleans in the north-central Gulf. Otherwise, ridging remains over the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the east-central and southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds with 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas will gradually diminish today in the southeastern Gulf. High pressure will build across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds basin-wide by tonight, then prevailing through late week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail-end of a cold front is creating scattered showers across eastern Cuba and near the north coast of Hispaniola, including the Windward Passage. Farther west, a surface trough is bringing patchy showers in the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen in the lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through tonight as a late-season cold front moves across Cuba, then dissipates along the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight into Thu. The Atlantic high pressure located north of the basin will weaken over the next couple of days and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient over the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31n50w to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 230 nm southeast of this feature. To the south, a surface trough is causing scattered showers east of the northern Leeward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for more information. Moderate to fresh with locally strong N to NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are present behind the cold front, except gentle to moderate winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft off northeastern Florida. To the east, gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate north of 20N between 35W and cold front. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle with locally moderate ENE to E winds and 4 to 5 ft seas exist. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it moves eastward through tonight. Conditions will gradually improve late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls Fri over the SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will weaken over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the weekend, with the exception of the NE waters where fresh westerly winds and rough seas are expected as a cold front clips the area on Sat $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC222209_C_KWBC_20260422221045_47448518-1719-TWDAT.txt ****0000005087**** AXNT20 KNHC 222209 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Apr 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal near 14N16.5W then curves southwestward to 02.5N33W. ITCZ continues southwestward from 02.5N33W to 01N38W to 07N56W and then to the coast of Guyana near 07N59W. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 07N between 09W and 25W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 150 nm within the ITCZ west of 46W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The remnants of the recent cold front can be seen in satellite imagery this evening, in the form of a shearline, extending from offshore the NW coast of Cuba near 23N84W to 24N89W to 27N94W. Midday satellite scatterometer wind data showed convergent fresh to strong E to SE winds to the northeast of this boundary, that continue to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms within 200 nm NE of the shearline, and extend inland across the coasts of Louisiana and southeast Texas. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these winds. Otherwise, high pressure across the western Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward over the Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds with 3 to 5 ft prevail across the W and SW Gulf. For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas along and just NE of the shearline will gradually diminish tonight in the southeastern and central Gulf. High pressure will then build across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient expected across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds basin- wide Thu through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail-end of an old cold front has become stationary across the N and NW coast of Hispaniola, and is producing scattered showers across eastern Cuba, along the north coast of Hispaniola, and across interior Jamaica. Farther west, a surface trough is bringing patchy showers in the northwestern basin. Moderate to locally fresh ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail across the remainder of the Caribbean Sea, except seas to 5 ft along the NW coast of Colombia. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected through the Windward Passage and southwest of Cuba through tonight as a late-season cold front stalls across eastern Cuba and the N coast of Hispaniola along about 20N, then dissipates Thu. The Atlantic high pressure located north of the basin will weaken over the next couple of days and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient over the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An Atlantic cold front enters the area waters near 31N53W and extends southwestward to 21N67W, then has become stationary to the NW coast of Haiti. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 300 nm E of the front, to the N of 25N, and within 90 nm southeast of this feature elsewhere. Further south, a surface trough is causing scattered showers east of the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and 7 to 11 ft seas prevail N of the cold front, except gentle to moderate winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft off northeastern Florida to 75W. To the east of the front, moderate S to SW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate north of 25N between 44W and cold front. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 36W, gentle with locally moderate ENE to E winds and 4 to 5 ft seas exist. N of 20N and E of 36W, N swell is producing seas of 7 to 12 ft, with new large N swell poised to enter those waters and reinforce seas tonight and Thu. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it moves eastward through tonight, and stalls along about 20N to the north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Conditions will gradually improve late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls Fri over the SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will weaken over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the weekend, with the exception of the NE waters where fresh westerly winds and rough seas are expected as a cold front clips the area on Sat. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################