--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2025-12-28 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC280548_C_KWBC_20251228054912_16515500-3352-TWDAT.txt ****0000006724**** AXNT20 KNHC 280548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Dec 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will reach the northwestern Gulf early Mon morning and move quickly southeastward, then depart the Gulf Tue night. Fresh to near gale-force NW to NE winds behind the front will spread southward from the northwestern and north-central Gulf to the Bay of Campeche and near the Yucatan Peninsula along with rough to very rough seas. These winds are going to reach gale- force offshore from Tampico around noon Mon, then progress to near Veracruz by late Mon night. Seas under the strongest winds will peak between 14 and 18 ft. Conditions should improve from north to south Tue into Wed. Western and Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Persistent large NW swell will maintain 12 to 14 ft seas north of 27N between 41W and 63W through Sun morning. Then, a reinforcing set of large NW swell will cause seas rising to between 12 and 17 ft, and spreading southward to 25N by early Sun afternoon. Afterward, expect this area of rough to very rough seas to gradually shift eastward through midweek. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on both events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau, then runs southwestward to 05N17W. An ITCZ extends westward from 05N17W through 03N35W to offshore of Suriname at 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near and up to 50 nm north of the ITCZ west of 35W, and near the ITCZ and monsoon from 03N to 05N between 10W and 22W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above on an upcoming Gale Warning. A diurnal surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1019 mb high over the northeastern Gulf is dominating much of Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are present across the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds with seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf through late Sun. The next cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf early Mon, followed by fresh to near-gale force northerly winds and very rough seas, except gale conditions are expected in the far west central and southwestern Gulf by Mon afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin through midweek as high pressure builds over the region following the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad Atlantic Ridge continues to support a trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough embedded within the trades is causing widely scattered showers from the Gulf of Honduras eastward to near Jamaica. Fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are noted at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the north-central and part of the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic Ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia through mid week, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel Tue night, reach from central Cuba to Belize by late Wed, and from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section at the beginning for details on the ongoing significant swell. A reinforcing cold front curves westward from east of Bermuda across 31N59W to beyond 31N78W. Farther south and east, another cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic through 31N42W to 27N51W, then continues westward as a stationary front to 27N70W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found up to 50 nm along either side of both boundaries. At the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough stretches northeastward from 23N41W to beyond 31N33W. Convergent southerly winds east of the trough axis are combining with strong divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered moderate convection north of 23N between 27W and 35W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Other than the very rough seas area mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to strong with locally near-gale force SW to NW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft in large NW swell are present north of 23N between 40W and 72W. Farther west, gentle to moderate W to NW winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate NW to N swell exist north of 23N and west of 72W. For north of 23N between 35W and 40W, gentle to moderate SW to W winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in moderate NW swell are noted. For the tropical Atlantic from 13N to 23N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, light to gentle winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate NW to N swell are evident. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in mixed moderate to large swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the aforementioned cold front as it moves to the east of 35W by early Mon, leaving a trailing stationary front to dissipate along 21N. Large N swell will also follow this front, mixing with large swell already covering the area north of 22N and east of 70W. A third cold front will move off the northeastern Florida coast Mon night, and will reach from Bermuda to Jupiter Inlet, Florida by late Tue, from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Wed, and from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by Thu night. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC280935_C_KWBC_20251228093613_16515500-3368-TWDAT.txt ****0000005700**** AXNT20 KNHC 280935 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Dec 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf waters early Mon. The front will move quickly southeastward, departing the basin Tue night. Fresh to near gale- force winds will follow the front, along with rough seas. Gale- force N winds and rough to very rough seas will develop off Tampico Mon afternoon and night. These winds and seas will reach the waters off Veracruz Mon night and persist until Tue night. Seas may peak around 18 ft off Veracruz Mon night into Tue. Conditions will improve from north to south by midweek. Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A couple of cold fronts are moving through the north central waters. The first cold front extends from 31N40W to 26N54W. The second cold front enters the waters near 31N57W to 28N69W to 31N78W. Large swell generated from the first cold front is generating very rough seas greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters N of 27N between 41W and 55W. Another set of large NW swell has entered the waters with the second cold front, with very rough seas greater than 12 ft covering the waters N of 29N east of 65W, and merging with the very rough seas generated from the first front. The combined area of very rough seas will shift eastward across the waters N of 24N. Seas will peak at around 18 ft near 31N47W by early Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W and continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 03N30W to 07N56W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 11W and 22W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 32W and 56W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above on an upcoming Gale Warning. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf, while the remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a 1019 mb high centered over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle winds are over the NE Gulf, with moderate to locally fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the NE Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf through late today. The next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf early Mon, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas, except gale conditions are expected in the far west central and southwest Gulf by Mon afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin through mid week as high pressure builds over the region following the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh winds,a and seas of 6-8 ft prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft are in the north central Caribbean. Moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure across the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia through mid week, with moderate to fresh trade winds elsewhere. A cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel Tue night, reach from central Cuba to Belize by late Wed, and from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section at the beginning for details on the ongoing significant swell. A pair of cold fronts are moving through the northern waters. The first cold front extends from 31N40W to 26N54W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection, and gentle to moderate winds are in the vicinity of this front. The second cold front enters the waters near 31N57W to 28N69W to 31N78W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 60 nm east of the front. Fresh to strong winds are within 60 nm east of the front, and north of the front. Aside from the very rough seas discussed in the Special Features section above, rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of a line from 30N70W to 22N55W to 30N28W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are found S of 12N between 30W and 55W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front over the northern waters will move east of the area by early Mon, leaving a trailing stationary front to dissipate along 21N. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas will follow this front. Large N swell will also follow this front, mixing with large swell already covering the area north of 22N and east of 70W. Another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night, and will reach from Bermuda to Jupiter Inlet, Florida by late Tue, from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Wed, and from 31N55W to eastern Cuba by Thu night. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC281757_C_KWBC_20251228175726_29294990-3816-TWDAT.txt ****0000007522**** AXNT20 KNHC 281757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Dec 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf waters early Mon. The front will move quickly southeastward, departing the basin Tue night. Fresh to near gale- force winds will follow the front, along with rough seas. Gale- force N winds and rough to very rough seas will develop off Tampico Mon afternoon and night. These winds and seas will reach the waters off Veracruz Mon night and persist until Tue night. Seas may peak around 20 ft off Veracruz Mon night into Tue. Conditions will improve from north to south by midweek. Central Atlantic Gale and Significant Swell: A couple of cold fronts are moving through the north central waters. The first cold front extends from 31N54W to 29N65W to 31N79W. The second cold front enters the waters near 31N56W to 28N69W to 30N72W. These fronts will lead to gale-force winds in the central Atlantic starting tonight and lasting through Monday afternoon. Fresh to strong NW winds currently follow these fronts, with fresh to strong SW winds along and ahead of the fronts out to about 40W and N of 23N. Gusts to gale force are expected immediately ahead of the fronts as well as behind them, generally N of 24N between 30W and 60W through the duration of the Gale Warning. Large N swell from both fronts is leading to very rough seas greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters N of 23N between 37W and 68W. The large area of very rough seas will shift eastward across the waters N of 22N. Seas will peak at around 20 ft along and N of 30N between 45W and 55W Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 03N38W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N and E of 20W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also along and within 150 nm of the ITCZ from 30W westward. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above on an upcoming Gale Warning. A surface trough is over the SW Gulf, while the remainder of the Gulf is dominated by a 1021 mb high centered over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle winds are over the E Gulf, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the NE Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds will occur over the central and western Gulf today ahead of a cold front moving through the southern U.S. The front is slated to move into the northern Gulf late tonight, and gale force winds and significant rough to very rough seas are expected in the wake of the front off the coast of Texas and Louisiana by early Mon morning, and offshore of Tampico and Veracruz by Mon afternoon and evening. Prolonged gale force winds and very rough seas will persist over the western Bay of Campeche through late Tue night. Widespread strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere behind the front. Winds and seas will diminish from north to south through midweek. Looking ahead, high pressure will build over the basin following the front, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through late this week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trades and seas of 6-9 ft prevail in the central to SW Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail across much of the remaining basin. Pockets of enhanced moisture in the trade wind flow are leading to scattered showers in the central to NW Caribbean where a surface trough is also present, as well as in the SE Caribbean near the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas are expected over the central Caribbean through the middle of the upcoming week as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Winds may reach near-gale force offshore of northern Colombia tonight and again Mon night. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected over the rest of the basin through midweek. Elsewhere, a long period N to NW swell will support rough seas over the Atlantic waters early this week. Looking ahead, a cold front will move into the northwestern basin late Tue into Wed, and weaken as it moves southeastward by late this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section at the beginning for details on gale force winds and the ongoing significant swell in the central Atlantic. A couple of cold fronts are moving through the north central waters. The first cold front extends from 31N54W to 29N65W to 31N79W. The second cold front enters the waters near 31N56W to 28N69W to 30N72W. Scattered moderate convection is seen ahead of these fronts out to about 40W and N of 27N, enhanced also by a dissipating stationary front in this region. Aside from the gales and significant swell mentioned above, rough seas in excess of 8 ft cover the waters north of a line running from 31N32W to 19N57W to 31N75W. Farther east, a frontal remnant trough interacting with an upper level trough along 30W is leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms generally E of 35W and N of 20N. Moderate to fresh S to SE winds and 7-10 ft seas are seen near this feature, generally N of 24N between 25W and 33W. Much of the remaining Atlantic is seeing moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail, with locally rough seas and locally fresh to strong trades analyzed S of 10N between 35W and 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong W to NW winds and very rough seas will continue over the central tropical Atlantic, north of 22N and east of 70W, through Mon morning as a strong storm system and a series of cold fronts move over the region. Locally near-gale force winds will be possible north of 29N and east of 60W through late tonight. Widespread rough seas associated with this storm system will prevail east of 75W through tonight before briefly subsiding from west to east early this week. Farther west, fresh to locally strong W to SW winds will develop offshore of Florida on Mon ahead of a cold front moving through the southern U.S. The front is slated to move offshore by late Mon, supporting fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas in the wake of the front. These winds and seas will expand eastward toward the central Atlantic through midweek as the front moves eastward. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################