--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-03-25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC250401_C_KWBC_20260325040132_29294990-497-TWDAT.txt ****0000004246**** AXNT20 KNHC 250401 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Mar 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from the Tampa Bay area to 28N88W, followed by a stationary front to SE Louisiana. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and slight seas are found behind the front and east of 87W. The rest of the Gulf is dominated by a 1021 mb high pressure system centered near 28N91W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate across the NE Gulf on Wed, while weak high pressure will again move over the northeast Gulf Wed night through Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat morning and reach from extreme S Florida to NE Mexico by Sun morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak surface trough is analyzed from 12N81W to 19N84W and a few showers are seen in the central and NW Caribbean, with the strongest convection occurring SW of Jamaica. The subtropical ridge centered north of the area supports fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate seas off NW Colombia. Fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas are evident off southern Hispaniola, Windward Passage, the lee of Cuba and north of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will support fresh to locally strong NE winds south of Cuba, through the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola overnight. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia tonight and persist through Sat, mainly at night, as the high pressure moves slightly northeastward.. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N65W and continues southwestward to eastern Florida near 28N81W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the front. The pressure gradient between the ridge off the NE United States and the aforementioned front results in fresh to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas behind the frontal boundary. The remainder of the area (west of 55W) is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. In the far east Atlantic, a weakening 1011 mb low is nearly stationary just S of the Canary Islands, inducing fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas north of 24N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate trades and moderate to occasionally rough seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach from 31N64W to Vero Beach, Florida overnight, then begin to stall and quickly weaken. Winds and seas will then diminish through Wed night as the front drifts northward and dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will prevail Thu through late Fri across the region. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida early Sat, and reach from 31N62W to Miami by Sun morning. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will dominate all waters north of the front through Sun night. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC250849_C_KWBC_20260325085034_29294990-508-TWDAT.txt ****0000004312**** AXNT20 KNHC 250849 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Mar 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 07N11W to 02N25W. The ITCZ extends from 02N25W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 02N to 05N between 12W and 20W. GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to Leeville, Louisiana. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas to 3 ft follow the front over the Florida Big Bend area. Fresh NE winds and seas to 5 ft are noted off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle breezes and 2-4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. No significant convection is noted across the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate later today, while weak high pressure will move over the northeast Gulf tonight through Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat morning and reach from south Florida to northeast Mexico by Sun morning, and southeast of the basin Sun night. Fresh to strong E to SE winds and rough seas will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Sat night through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the northwest Caribbean between Grand Cayman Island and Swan Island, southeast of an upper trough over the Gulf of America. An associated surface trough extended along the coast of Honduras. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NE winds north of this trough. The same pass showed fresh winds south of Cuba and Hispaniola. Although not captured by the pass, it is likely fresh to strong NE winds are active off Colombia at this time. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 4-6 ft in the northwest Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will build across the western Atlantic through Fri night, maintaining fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas offshore of Colombia tonight and persist, mainly at night. Looking ahead, high pressure will follow a strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh to strong NE winds and building seas across northern Caribbean to include the Windward Passage. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N63W to Vero Beach, Florida. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds north of the front. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed combined seas of 8-13 ft this past evening, although this may have subsided in the past several hours to 7-11 ft. The remainder of the area west of 55W is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. In the far east Atlantic, a weakening 1011 mb low is nearly stationary just S of the Canary Islands, inducing fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas north of 24N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate trades and moderate to occasionally rough seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front extends from 31N63W to Vero Beach, Florida. Fresh winds and rough seas north of front will subside through tonight as the front dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will prevail Thu through late Fri across the region. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida early Sat, and reach from 31N62W to Miami by Sun morning. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will dominate all waters north of the front through Sun night. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC251606_C_KWBC_20260325160637_29294990-529-TWDAT.txt ****0000003744**** AXNT20 KNHC 251606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Mar 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 07N11W to 02N24W. The ITCZ extends from 02N25W to 00N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 02N to 05N E of 20W. GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from Fort Myers, Florida, to Leeville, Louisiana. Moderate E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are N of the front. Similar conditions are in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, gentle breezes and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail. No convection is noted across the basin. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate later today, while weak high pressure will move over the northeast Gulf tonight through Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat morning and reach the SE Gulf by Sun morning, and southeast of the basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Sat night through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 15N80W to 19N85W. Scattered moderate convection is between this trough, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica. Fresh to locally strong E winds are also present in region. Aside from the far SW basin, where like to gentle winds prevail, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the majority of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia tonight through Sat night. Looking ahead, high pressure will follow a strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh to strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N63W to near Stuart, Florida. Scattered moderate convection has developed along this boundary N of the Bahamas. N of the boundary, fresh NE to E winds and rough seas are present. For most of the remainder of the basin, a weak pressure gradient is leading to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. In the far eastern Atlantic, a weakening 1012 mb low is S of the Canary Islands. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and rough seas are N and W of the low center, impacting waters N of 24N and E of 25W. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas north of the aforementioned stationary front will diminish through tonight as the front dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will prevail Thu through late Fri across the region. Looking ahead, another strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, and reach from 31N65W to central Florida by Sat night, and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC252300_C_KWBC_20260325230139_29294990-546-TWDAT.txt ****0000003774**** AXNT20 KNHC 252300 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Mar 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 06N11W to 01N21W. The ITCZ extends from 01N21W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate convection S of 05N E of 40W. GULF OF AMERICA... A weakening stationary front extends from Fort Myers, Florida, to Leeville, Louisiana. Moderate E winds and moderate seas are N of the front. Similar conditions are in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, gentle breezes and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the front will dissipate later today. A weak high pressure will move from the SE of the United States to the northeast Gulf on Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat morning, reach the SE Gulf by Sun morning, and move southeast of the basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Sat night through early Mon. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough to sustain fresh to strong east winds across the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida through the middle of the next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 15N80W to 19N85W. Scattered moderate convection is between this trough, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica. Fresh to locally strong E winds are also present in region. Aside from the far SW basin, where like to gentle winds prevail, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the majority of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia tonight through Sat night. High pressure will follow a strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh to strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from Sun through likely Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N64W to near Stuart, Florida. Scattered moderate convection has developed along this boundary N of the Bahamas. N of the boundary, fresh NE to E winds and rough seas are present. For most of the remainder of the basin, a weak pressure gradient is leading to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. In the far eastern Atlantic, a weakening 1012 mb low is S of the Canary Islands. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are N and W of the low center, impacting waters N of 24N and E of 25W. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds and rough seas north of front will diminish through tonight as the front dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will prevail Thu through late Fri across the region. The next strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, and reach from 31N65W to central Florida by Sat night, and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################