--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC250600_C_KWBC_20260625060034_9109880-6814-TWDAT.txt ****0000005027**** AXNT20 KNHC 250600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Jun 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 35W from 15N southward, and moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 12N between 29W and 36W, and from 03N to 07N between 37W and 45W. A tropical wave is along 65W from 18N southward. Scattered moderate convection is S of 16N between 63W and 68W. A tropical wave is along 81W from 19N southward into Panama. Scattered moderate convection is from 16N to 22N between 78W and 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland Africa. The ITCZ extends from 10N14W to 07N24W to 06N35W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 06N40W to 04N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 09N between 13W and 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends across northern Florida to the Florida Big Bend to southern Mississippi. Scattered to isolated showers associated with this front are ongoing in the NE Gulf. A 1018 mb high is offshore Louisina and extends a ridge across the remainder Gulf, which is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds W of 90W, gentle to moderate E winds in the SE Gulf, and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Slight seas are basin-wide. For the forecast, the stationary front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms at the northeastern Gulf tonight and Thu. A ridge is expected to persist across the north-central and northeastern Gulf into early next week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to fresh SE winds across far northwest portions through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the NE Gulf Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad Atlantic Ridge continues to sustain a robust trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean basin. This is sustaining moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas in the E Caribbean, fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds over the central basin along with rough seas to 12 ft, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between surface ridging N of the basin and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds, and rough seas in the south-central basin through tonight, before expanding northward and covering the entire central basin Thu morning through Sat morning. Expect winds at near-gale force offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime and early morning hours. On Fri night, winds off Colombia will peak at gale-force. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Fresh trades with rough seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles through midday Thu, diminishing to moderate winds and seas thereafter through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad surface ridge dominates the subtropical Atlantic waters E of 71W and is supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas. Moderate or weaker E to SE winds are elsewhere W of 71W ahead of a cold front that extends from 31N77W to 29N81W. Scattered heavy showers and tstms are ahead and along the front. For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will dominate the western Atlantic through the weekend. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms with strong gusty winds will continue across the waters offshore of Florida and the NW Bahamas through Thu, along and SE of a stalled front and pre-frontal surface rough across the NW zones. Fresh to strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected near the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico each late afternoon through night through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected south of 22N through Fri. A N to S aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will shift westward across the region early Fri through late Sat, reaching 70W Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the far NW zones off of NE Florida Mon night. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC251144_C_KWBC_20260625114436_9109880-6830-TWDAT.txt ****0000007326**** AXNT20 KNHC 251144 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jun 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: Tighter gradient between the Atlantic Ridge near 27N and a Colombian Low will cause trade winds off Colombia to peak at gale- force Fri night and early Sat morning. Seas under these winds are expected to range between 12 and 14 ft. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 14N southward, and moving westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 13N between 31W and 37W. A eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 69W from eastern Dominican Republic southward into northeastern Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is seen at the northeastern Caribbean, including waters south of the Dominican Republic. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from near the Cayman Islands southward into western Panama. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted at the northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras and waters near the Island of the Youth. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough stays mostly inland Africa. An ITCZ extends west-southwestward from just off Guinea to 07N33W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 06N37W to near the coastal border of French Guiana and Brazil. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the first ITCZ segment from 04N to 10N between 15W and 21W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present up to 90 nm along either side of the second ITCZ segment. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front curves northwestward from Cedar Key, Florida to near Gulfport, Louisiana. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring just east of New Orleans. Aided by divergent flow aloft, a diurnal trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms at the southern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1017 mb high south of New Orleans is dominating much of the Gulf, with light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas across the north-central and eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the stationary front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms at the north-central and northeastern Gulf today. Otherwise, a ridge of high pressure is expected to persist across these areas into early next week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to fresh SE winds across the far northwestern Gulf through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the east-central Gulf Mon night and Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. A broad Atlantic Ridge near 27N continues to support a robust trade-wind regime for the entire basin. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft dominate the south- central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are found at the northwestern and part of the southwestern basin, including waters near the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds, and rough to very rough seas in the south-central basin through this morning, before expanding northward and covering the entire central basin this afternoon through Sat morning. Expect winds at near-gale force offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime and early morning hours. On Fri night and early Sat morning, winds off Colombia will peak at gale- force. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Fresh trades with rough seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles through midday today, diminishing to moderate winds and seas thereafter through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front curves southwestward from a 1016 mb low off the Carolinas coast across 31N76W to beyond Palm Coast, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are evident up to 95 nm southeast of the front. Farther east, an upper-level low near 31N64W is enhancing thunderstorms north of 25N between 60W and 69W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. The broad Atlantic Ridge near 27W is supporting light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 22N and west of 65W, except moderate to fresh southerly winds off northeastern Florida and southern Georgia. Otherwise, gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas are anticipated north of 22N between 60W and the Florida coast. Farther east, moderate ENE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted north of 22N between 35W and 65W. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 22N between 35W and the southwest Bahamas/Florida coast, moderate to locally fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft exist. For the remainder of the tropical Atlantic west of 35W, mainly gentle E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas will prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds east of northeastern Florida through this evening. Otherwise, a broad ridge extending southwestward from a 1027 mb high near 34N50W across 31N61W to southern Florida will dominate the western Atlantic through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected near the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico each late afternoon and night through Fri night. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected south of 22N through Fri. A north-to- south aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will shift westward across the region early Fri through late Sat, reaching 70W Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC251734_C_KWBC_20260625173439_9109880-6849-TWDAT.txt ****0000006122**** AXNT20 KNHC 251734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jun 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between an Atlantic Ridge and the Colombian Low will cause trade winds off Colombia to peak at gale- force Fri night and early Sat morning. Seas under these winds are expected to range between 12 and 15 ft. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 16N southward, and moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 08N between 33W and 39W. A eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from eastern Dominican Republic southward into western Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the northeastern Caribbean, including waters south of the Dominican Republic, Mona Passage, and Puerto Rico. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 82W from near the Cayman Islands southward into western Panama. It is moving westward around 5-10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the western Caribbean W of 80W and S of 20N, including the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N19W. The ITCZ then continues from 07N19W to 05N25W to 07N33W, where it is broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ then resumes from 05N38W to 04N52W. In addition to the convection described in the Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 02N to 10N between 15W and 25W, as well as from 03N to 08N between 39W and 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front runs from near the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Big Bend of Florida, and is enhancing scattered moderate convection N of 28N and E of 91W. A surface trough in the SW Gulf also appears to enhance scattered moderate convection S of 23N and W of 94W. Aside from convection, gentle to moderate or weaker E to SE winds and slight seas prevail across much of the Gulf. For the forecast, a weakening stationary front will trigger scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north- central and northeastern Gulf today. Otherwise, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region into early next week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to fresh SE winds across the far northwestern Gulf through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the east-central Gulf Mon night and Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning, and please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the basin. The pressure gradient between ridging across much of the Atlantic and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades across much of the central Caribbean, as well as seas of 9-12 ft in the south-central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the E Caribbean, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds, and rough to very rough seas in the central Caribbean through Sat morning. Expect winds at near-gale force offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime and early morning hours. On Fri night and early Sat morning, winds off Colombia will peak at gale-force. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. Fresh trades with rough seas should persist east of the Lesser Antilles through midday today, diminishing to moderate winds and seas thereafter through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends across the waters offshore SE GA/NE FL to near Jacksonville, FL. An upper level shortwave over the region is helping to enhance showers and thunderstorms N of the Bahamas. An upper level low S of Bermuda is also enhancing showers and thunderstorms in the region. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by ridging, supporting moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening stationary front will trigger some showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds east of northeastern Florida through this evening. Otherwise, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast area through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds with locally rough seas are expected near the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico each late afternoon and night through Fri night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected south of 22N through Fri. A north-to- south aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will shift westward across the region early Fri through late Sat, reaching 70W Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC252139_C_KWBC_20260625214056_32440682-3775-TWDAT.txt ****0000004982**** AXNT20 KNHC 252139 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Jun 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between an Atlantic Ridge and the Colombian Low will cause tradewinds off Colombia and over the Gulf of Venezuela to peak at minimal gale-force Fri night and early Sat morning. Seas under these winds are expected to range between 12-15 ft north of Colombia and 4-7 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W from 16N southward, and moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 00N-13N between 33W-46W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from Dominican Republic southward into Venezuela, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring with this wave this afternoon. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from 19N southward along coastal Nicaragua. It is moving westward around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N-16N west of 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W near coastal Gambia and extends to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 06N36W. It begins again at 05N41W to 04N53W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 00N-13N between 33W-46W and from 03N-08N between 21W-26W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Gentle to moderate or weaker E to SE winds and slight seas prevail across much of the Gulf. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 25N-27N east of 83W. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region into early next week. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will generally prevail across the basin during this time, except for fresh to locally strong NE to E winds pulsing off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly, and moderate to fresh SE to S winds across the far northwestern Gulf through the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak frontal boundary will sink southward into the east-central Gulf Mon night and Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning, and please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the basin. The pressure gradient between ridging across much of the Atlantic and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong trades across much of the central Caribbean, as well as seas of 8-9 ft in the south- central to SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the E Caribbean, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds, and rough to very rough seas in the central Caribbean through Sat morning. Expect winds at near-gale force offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela during the nighttime and early morning hours. On Fri night and early Sat morning, winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela will peak at minimal gale- force. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level shortwave centered at 31N63W is helping to enhance isolated moderate convection north of 28N between 60W-70W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by ridging, supporting moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast area through the weekend. Fresh to strong easterly winds, with locally rough seas are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, each late afternoon and night through Fri night. A nearly north-to-south aligned surface trough across the central Atlantic will shift westward across the region Fri through Sun, reaching near 70W by Sun morning. This will weaken the ridge and lead to diminishing winds. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will sink southward into the waters off northeastern Florida Mon night. $$ Landsea/Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################