--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-26 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC260439_C_KWBC_20260526044045_47448518-4109-TWDAT.txt ****0000004833**** AXNT20 KNHC 260439 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue May 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 38W from 11N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. An central Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from 15N southward across western Venezuela, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 14N to 16N between 63W and 70W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to 06N25W. An ITCZ continues from 06N25W to 04N35W, then resumes from 02N41W to 02N49W. No significant convection is evident at this time. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A sharp mid/upper trough reaches from northeast Texas across the western Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula. Abundant moisture and divergence aloft ahead of the trough is supporting scattered moderate to strong convection in the southerly flow across the central Gulf. Frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally rough seas are likely near these thunderstorms. Weak ridging extends from north- central Atlantic to Florida, supporting fresh SE winds across the Florida Straits, and moderate SE winds over the eastern Gulf where seas are 3-5 ft. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere across the central and western Gulf is supporting light to gentle breezes with 1-3 ft seas. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will sustain gentle to moderate E to SE winds through Thu. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh to strong winds off the northern Yucatan. An upper-level trough across the western Gulf should continue to couple with abundant tropical moisture to produce scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over the central and northeastern Gulf through at least Wed. These thunderstorms are capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, limited visibility, and locally rough seas. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecast. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain active across the far northwest Caribbean and the Yucatan Channel due to divergent flow aloft ahead of a sharp mid/upper trough northwest of this area. Elsewhere, no significant convection is active at this time across the basin. Strong ridging over the Atlantic along with lower pressure far south over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, with near-gale force winds possible off the coast of central Colombia. Moderate E to SE winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central Caribbean, and 4-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean with rough seas through Thu night. These winds are expected to pulse to near-gale force off Barranquilla, Colombia, during night-time and morning hours into Thu. Trades in the Gulf of Honduras and north of Jamaica will reach fresh to strong each evening through the same period. By Fri, most of the basin should experience moderate with locally fresh winds and moderate seas, except the south- central basin which fresh to strong winds and rough seas will remain through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from 31N35W to 26N41W, then becomes stationary to 30N63W. Fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are present near and behind the front. Farther south, fresh to strong SE winds and 8-10 ft seas are active from 15N to 26N and west of 58W into the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh trade winds and 5-7 ft are noted elsewhere south of 18N. Gentle breezes and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas will prevail across waters south of 25N through Wed, including the Great Bahama Bank, as Atlantic high pressure shifts southeastward, tightening the pressure gradient. As the high weakens Wed night, winds and seas will diminish. The front will slide SE tonight and out of the region by Tue. Fresh NE winds and rough seas N of it will diminish Tue. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC261058_C_KWBC_20260526105847_47448518-4131-TWDAT.txt ****0000006355**** AXNT20 KNHC 261058 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue May 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 11N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from the Equator to 07N between 35W and 43W. An central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from 15N southward across western Venezuela and central-eastern Colombia. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident near the Venezuela-Colombia border. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast north of Nouakchott, then curves southwestward to 07N21W. An ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 03N36W, then resumes from 01N43W to near the Amazon River Delta. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 170 nm north of both ITCZ segments. Convergent surface winds north of the East Pacific monsoon trough are triggering numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwest Colombia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A deep mid to upper-level trough reaches southward from eastern Texas across the western Gulf to the Yucatan Peninsula, providing strong divergent flow over the central and part of the eastern Gulf. Along with abundant moisture being advected by surface southeasterly winds, scattered to numerous showers with isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring over the central and part of the eastern Gulf. Frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally rough seas are likely near these thunderstorms. Otherwise weak ridging extending from the north-central Atlantic through Florida is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas across the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will sustain gentle to moderate SE to S winds through the weekend. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh to strong winds off the northern Yucatan through Thu night. Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over the central and eastern Gulf should persist through at least Wed night. These thunderstorms are capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, limited visibility, and locally rough seas. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecast. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The southeastern end of a pronounced mid to upper-level trough is enhancing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms for the northwestern basin. Convergent trades are producing similar weather between eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and across the northeastern basin, including waters near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Strong to near- gale E winds with seas of 9 to 11 ft are present at the south- central basin, while fresh to strong E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are at the north- central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the lee of Cuba, south of the Windward Passage and near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean with rough seas through Thu night. These winds are expected to pulse to near- gale force off Barranquilla, Colombia, during night-time and morning hours into Thu. Trades in the Gulf of Honduras and just north of Jamaica will reach fresh to strong each evening through the same period. By Fri, most of the basin should experience moderate with locally fresh winds and moderate seas, except the south-central basin in which fresh to strong winds and rough seas will remain through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N34W to 24N45W, then continues west-northwestard as a stationary front to 25N53W to 29N64W. Patchy showers are evident near and up to 80 nm north of this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the top for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds with 7 to 9 ft seas are noted north of the cold/stationary front. Farther south, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found from 20N to the cold/stationary front between 35W and 60W. To the west, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present north of 25N between 60W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Fresh to strong E to SE winds along with 6 to 9 ft seas dominate from 20N to 25N and west of 60W, including the Great Bahama Bank. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas are anticipated across waters south of 25N and west of 60W through Wed, including the Great Bahama Bank, as the Atlantic high pressure shifts southeastward, tightening the pressure gradient. As the high weakens Wed night, winds and seas will diminish from east to west. A weakening stationary front from 25N53W to 29N64W will linger through this morning before dissipating later this afternoon. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas north of it will gradually diminish through this afternoon. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC261605_C_KWBC_20260526160549_47448518-4148-TWDAT.txt ****0000005402**** AXNT20 KNHC 261605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue May 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1555 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W, south of 11N, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 08N and between 32W and 45W. An central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W, south of 15N, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N24W. The ITCZ extends from 08N24W to 04N39W and then from 04N41W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 08N and east of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergence aloft associated with a deep upper level trough and tropical moisture being pulled northward result in scattered moderate to isolated strong convection between 85W and 90W. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted in the nearshore waters of southern Texas and northern Tamaulipas. A weak pressure gradient across the basin supports moderate to locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the eastern part of the Gulf, east of 90W. Strongest winds are occurring in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extending west-southwestward across Florida into the central Gulf will sustain gentle to moderate SE to S winds through the weekend. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh off the northern Yucatan through Thu night. An upper-level trough across the central Gulf should continue to couple with abundant tropical moisture to produce scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over the central and eastern Gulf into Thu. These thunderstorms are capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, limited visibility, and locally rough seas. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecast. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The southeastern end of a pronounced mid to upper-level trough is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northwestern Caribbean. Convergent trades are producing similar weather between eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and across the northeastern basin, including waters near Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also found in the SW Caribbean, especially off Panama. A tight pressure gradient forces strong to near-gale easterly trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Easterly swell is causing rough seas in the Atlantic water passages of the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean with rough seas into Fri. These winds are expected to pulse to near- gale force off Barranquilla, Colombia, during night-time and morning hours through Thu. Trades in the Gulf of Honduras will reach fresh to strong each evening through the same period. By Fri, most of the basin should experience moderate with locally fresh winds and moderate seas, except the south- central basin in which fresh to strong winds and rough seas will remain through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N31W and continues southwestward to 25N40W, followed by a stationary front to 26N64W. A few showers are noted near this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted behind the fronts. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of an extensive subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to fresh E-SE winds and rough seas south and west of a line from 27N74W to 19N60W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring south of 20N and west of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas are anticipated across waters south of 25N and west of 60W through Wed, including the Great Bahama Bank, as the Atlantic high pressure shifts southeastward, tightening the pressure gradient. As the high weakens Wed night, winds and seas will diminish from east to west. A weakening stationary front from 25N53W to 29N64W will dissipate this afternoon. Rough seas north of it will diminish by tonight. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################