--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-24 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC240614_C_KWBC_20260724061454_49676782-9097-TWDAT.txt ****0000005962**** AXNT20 KNHC 240614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Jul 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Remnants Of Bertha is centered near 30.0N 96.0W at 24/0300 UTC or 30 nm WNW of Houston Texas, moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 6 ft. Swells generated by the remnants of Bertha will continue to affect the Louisiana and Texas coast through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Bertha NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is over the Cabo Verde Islands along 24W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is confined to the monsoon from 08N to 13N between 18W and 26W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 09N to 19N with axis near 47W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 18N between 37W and 52W. A third tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles along 60W moving westward at approximately 15 kt. The wave is devoid of deep convection at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near Dakar and continues SW to 09N24W to 08N30W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 09N45W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 26W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on the remnants of Bertha. Tropical Storm Bertha has moved inland into Texas, weakened into a tropical depression, and is now dissipating. The remnants of Bertha are near 30.0N 96.0W at 11 PM EDT, moving west at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Elsewhere outside of Bertha, a 1018 mb high developed over the NE Gulf, which is supporting light to gentle variable winds in that region and gentle to moderate E winds over the SE Gulf. The gradient of pressure between the remnants of Bertha and the high is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds over the NW basin and NE winds of the same speed over the Bay of Campeche. Seas basin-wide are mainly slight with locally moderate seas offshore Texas. For the forecast, Bertha will dissipate Fri morning. In the wake of Bertha, a high pressure center will become established over the NE Gulf through Fri, then shift to the central Gulf. The high pressure will provide for a light to gentle wind flow across the basin, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula and near NE Mexico and the Texas coast through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The presence of a surface trough north of the basin has reduced the usual north-south pressure gradient over the Caribbean Sea. As a result, fresh to strong winds are noted in the south-central Caribbean where seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds with slight seas prevail elsewhere. An upper level-low located near the Cayman Islands continue to support scattered showers over the NW basin and Windward Passage. In the SW Caribbean, the E Pacific extension of the monsoon support scattered heavy showers S of 15N. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras Sat night and Sun night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details on these features. A trough extending from near 30N75W and across the central Bahamas continues to generate scattered showers over the offshores W of 58W to the N of 22N. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas to 10 ft prevail over the Canary Islands due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted elsewhere E of 65W with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will continue to drift west to central and South Florida Fri. Scattered thunderstorms will accompany the trough. Fresh trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage into Sun. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the waters east of northern Florida Sat night through Sun night, preceded by fresh to locally strong southwest winds north of about 28N and east of 75W. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC240938_C_KWBC_20260724093908_47448518-9146-TWDAT.txt ****0000004396**** AXNT20 KNHC 240938 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Jul 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands along 27W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is confined to the monsoon from 08N to 13N between 19W and 26W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 09N to 19N with axis near 49W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 18N between 40W and 52W. A tropical wave is moving into the Caribbean along 62W, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed ahead of the wave from 12N to 15N between 62W and 65W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near Dakar 15N17W and continues SW to 09N24W to 08N31W. The ITCZ extends from 08N31W to 09N45W to 07N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 30W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The remnants of Bertha have devolved into a surface trough over Texas, and will continue to move W away from the region, having no further impact on the basin. A 1018 mb high over the NE Gulf is supporting light to gentle variable winds in that region and gentle to moderate E winds over the SE Gulf. Moderate mainly SE winds prevail over the western basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the eastern Gulf and 3 to 5 ft in the west. Scattered convection from a land-breeze is impacting waters within about 90 nm of the the Florida Peninsula, otherwise dry conditions prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will shift to the central Gulf tonight. The high pressure will provide for a light to gentle wind flow across the basin, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds are noted in the south-central Caribbean with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are over the eastern Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds with slight seas prevail elsewhere. An upper level- low located near the Cayman Islands continue to support scattered moderate convection over the NW basin and Windward Passage. In the SW Caribbean, the E Pacific monsoon trough is supporting scattered moderate convection S of 15N. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras Sat night and possibly Sun night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layer trough is inducing scattered moderate convection N of 24N between 58W and 78W. Otherwise, mainly moderate trades dominate the entire basin due to the gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure to the south. Strong NE winds and seas to 10 ft are impacting waters near the Canary Islands where this gradient is tightest. Elsewhere, mainly moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a trough that extends from near 29N77W across the NW Bahamas will continue to drift west to central and South Florida tonight. Scattered thunderstorms will accompany the trough. Fresh trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the weekend. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the waters east of northern Florida late this weekend, preceded by fresh southwest winds north of about 28N and east of 75W. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC241635_C_KWBC_20260724163558_49676782-9136-TWDAT.txt ****0000004366**** AXNT20 KNHC 241635 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Jul 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 29W from 05N-20N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 25W-38W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 51W from 07N-18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 10N-14N between 49W-54W. A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 64W from 17N southward, moving westward around 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with the wave today. A new tropical wave has formed in the W Caribbean at 84W from 18N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N-17N west of 76W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W southwest to 06N29W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 09N49W, where it breaks for a tropical wave. The ITCZ resumes at 09N53W then to 08N60W along coastal Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 25W-38W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 10N-14N between 49W-54W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1020 mb high pressure is centered over the N Gulf near 29N88W. Winds across the Gulf are generally light to moderate except for isolated strong E winds over the Bay of Campeche. Seas are 2-4 ft. Isolated moderate convection is occurring over the Straits of Florida this afternoon. For the forecast, the high pressure over the NE Gulf will shift to the central Gulf. The high pressure will provide for a light to gentle wind flow across the basin into the early part of next week, except for pulsing moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A moderate pressure gradient between low pressure over northern South America and high pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean with seas 6-9 ft. Elsewhere winds are gentle to moderate with seas 3-5 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 10N-17N west of 76W associated with a tropical wave. Additionally, an upper-level low is causing isolated moderate convection north of 19N west of 85W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras Sat night and possibly Sun night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda-Azores High well north of the area along with lower pressure over the ITCZ and the monsoon trough is forcing only moderate to isolated fresh trades west of 30W with seas of 4-7 ft. A larger pressure gradient farther east is forcing fresh to locally strong NE winds with seas 7-9 ft north of 20N east of 30W. An upper-level low is causing isolated moderate convection north of 24N between 61W-78W. For the forecast west of 55W, a trough off the east coast of Florida will drift west into the peninsula today. Scattered thunderstorms will accompany the trough across the Bahamas. Fresh trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the weekend. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. A cold front may approach the waters east of northern Florida late this weekend and stall, preceded by fresh southwest winds north of about 28N and east of 75W through mid week. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################