--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-27 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC270459_C_KWBC_20260927050015_4522426-4788-TWDAT.txt ****0000007870**** AXNT20 KNHC 270459 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo is centered near 19.6N 23.2W at 27/0000 UTC, moving NNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt within 90 nm across the NE semicircle. Peak seas are near 16 ft in the NE quadrant. Gonzalo remnants are a sheared system with scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection extending well NE of the center, from 19.5N to 24N between 16W and 23W. The remnant low of Gonzalo will continue to move N-NW and away from the Cabo Verde Islands during the next few days, while gradually weakening. S to SE swell generated by Gonzalo and the regional monsoonal winds are expected to continue to affect portions of the Cabo Verde Islands overnight while gradually diminishing through Sunday morning. Please read the latest area forecasts for the Post-Tropical remnants of Gonzalo issued by MeteoFrance at wwmis.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 66W, south of 18N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. The wave has become significantly sheared by an upper level low over the NE Caribbean. No significant convection is depicted over water at this time near this wave. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis along 82W-83W, S of 16N, extending across western Panama, moving west near 10 kt. Moderate convection associated with this wave is inland and along the coasts of Central America from western Panama to central Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits Africa along the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W and extends to the remnant low of Gonzalo near 19.5N23W then southwestward to 09.5N33W to 09N38W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 12N55W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm SE of the monsoon trough between 20W and 36W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12.5N between 48W and 61W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A dissipating frontal boundary extends across the basin from the western tip of Cuba to the NE Mexican coast along 24.5N. Widely scattered clusters of moderate convection are within 75 nm S of this boundary. Isolated weak showers are elsewhere to the N across northwest and north-central portions. The upper level trough across the basin in recent days has weakened considerable and drifted SE and now extends from central Florida southwestward across SE portions and the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is also along and ahead a surface trough across the western Yucatan Peninsula and moving into the immediate coastal waters. Surface observations indicate that a weak 1014 mb high center has shifted southward into the NE Gulf offshore of the Florida-Alabama border. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin with a few small zones of moderate E winds occurring N of the front offshore of Louisiana and across the upper Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 3 ft in these areas and less than 3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas, will prevail through the weekend. Winds and seas will gradually increase to gentle to moderate speeds Mon, and to moderate to fresh speeds Tue night through Thu night, as high pressure shifts into the eastern Gulf and a frontal system moves into the Central Plains. Slight seas basin-wide will build to moderate Wed night through Thu following the increase in winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weaker than normal pressure gradient across the western Atlantic and Caribbean basin is translating to gentle to moderate trades over most of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh winds are occurring across the waters S of 13.5N between NW Venezuela and NE Colombia, and in the Gulf of Honduras, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Moderate winds follow the tropical wave and extend into the Windward Islands. Seas are 2 to 4 f there. Elsewhere light to gentle winds prevail with seas 3 ft or less. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate trades across the Caribbean through Mon night. High pressure will build E of the Bahamas on Tue, which will result in trades reaching moderate to fresh speeds basin-wide. Seas will be slight to moderate through the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on Post- Tropical Cyclone Gonzalo. Large N to NE swell generated by Low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. and associated frontal system continues to dominate the waters N of 24N and W of 70W, becoming NW swell N of 25N between 64W and 70W. This swell has peaked in the past 24 hours and is beginning to subside, with maximum seas now 10-11 ft between 29N and 31N, except higher in the Gulfstream. This swell will continue to gradually subside through Mon, while gradually becoming more NW to N, and propagating to the waters near 60W by late Mon. Tropical Depression Fay is centered near 29.6N 43.9W at 27/0300, moving S at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas to 10 ft are within 60 nm N of center, while seas of 6 to 10 ft are found across the area N of 28N between 40W and 47W. Numerous moderate to strong convection has recently erupted within 120 nm across the SW semicircle. A vigorous upper-level trough along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. supports the deep low pressure off the NE Atlantic coast, and supports a cold front across the western Atlantic waters extending through 31N68W through the central Bahamas and into western Cuba. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is ongoing E of this front, from NE Cuba and NW Hispaniola through the Turks and Caicos, to the area between the front and 30N72W. Moderate to locally fresh SW to S winds generally prevail E of the front from 21N north-northeastward to beyond 31N and W of 62W. Seas are 4 to 9 ft in northerly swell described above, highest N of 27N. To the east, a surface trough supported by a mid-level low is inducing numerous moderate convection from 26N to 30N between 55W and 60W. Moderate to locally fresh S winds and seas 5 to 7 ft are present in the vicinity of this trough. To the SE, a belt of gentle to moderate trades prevails from 10N to 21N W of 34W to the Lesser Antilles, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Farther E, moderate to fresh NE winds prevail N of the monsoon trough to 24N between 24W and 33W, where seas are 7 to 10 ft in NE swell from Gonzalo. Otherwise mainly gentle winds prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba tonight before starting to weaken. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh SW winds are expected E of the front through the remainder of the weekend before diminishing Mon. Large northerly swell behind the front will gradually subside through Mon. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################