--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-28 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC280333_C_KWBC_20260628033327_32440682-3957-TWDAT.txt ****0000005699**** AXNT20 KNHC 280333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Jun 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0325 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in Colombia will support strong to gale-force NE-E winds and rough to locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean tonight and Sun morning. A recent partial scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 31 kt off NW Colombia. Winds will drop below gale on Sun, but fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist through at least the upcoming week. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic along 18W, south of 16N, based on satellite imagery, total precipitable water and wave guidance data. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 11N and east of 25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, south of 13N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 02N to 08N and between 40W and 51W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. A few showers are noted within 120 nm on both sides of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 08N26W to 06N42W and then from 05N45W and to 03N51W. Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the convection. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A few showers are noted in the western Bay of Campeche and off western Florida, while generally dry conditions are present in the rest of the Gulf. A 1020 mb high pressure system centered over the eastern Gulf waters forces fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and moderate seas south of 24N and between 88W and 94W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas are occurring in the NW Gulf. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are expected across the NW Gulf through Mon night. A weak cold front will sink southward into the NE Gulf Mon night into Tue and gradually dissipate. Elsewhere, ridging will support only gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details regarding upcoming gale conditions for offshore Colombia. Aside from the expected gale conditions, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and adjacent areas is resulting in fresh to strong trade winds over much of the central Caribbean, and westward from there to the Gulf of Honduras. Rough to locally very rough seas are found in the south-central Caribbean and moderate to locally rough seas in the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong northeast winds are in the Windward Passage, along with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force offshore of Colombia tonight before diminishing Sun. Elsewhere, fresh to strong trades are expected over the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage tonight. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low centered southwest of Bermuda is producing a few showers north of 25N and between 58W and 67W. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by an extensive high pressure system centered near the Azores. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found south of 20N and between 40W and 52W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted within 120 nm of the coast of Africa, north of 18N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, an expansive Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. On Mon night, a weak cold front should push off of the SE United States coast and extend from 31N73W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the cold front is anticipated to dissipate by Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form in its wake. Gradual development of this system will be possible thereafter, while it moves slowly westward over our NW waters north of 29N. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC280843_C_KWBC_20260628084329_32440682-3977-TWDAT.txt ****0000005021**** AXNT20 KNHC 280843 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Jun 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High in the central Atlantic and the Colombian Low will support strong to gale-force NE-E winds and rough to locally very rough seas in the south-central Caribbean for the remainder of tonight. An OSCAT scatterometer pass at 0528 UTC reported ENE winds of around 35 kt. At 0500 UTC, the Jason-3 altimeter observed a large swath of seas 10-12 ft west of the peak wind region. Winds will drop below gale this morning, but fresh to strong winds and rough seas will persist through at least the upcoming week. Please refer to High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical in the far eastern Atlantic is along 20W, south of 16N. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N-10N between 18W-25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 12N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 03N-09N between 43W-53W. A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles along 60W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 13N-18N between 56W-64W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 08N27W. The ITCZ extends from 08N27W to 06N46W and then from 06N49W and to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 13N-18N between 56W-64W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Winds in the NW Gulf are moderate to fresh SE with seas 3-5 ft. Winds in the SW Gulf are also moderate to fresh E with seas 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, winds over the E Gulf are gentle with seas 1-3 ft, Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the SW Gulf south of 20N west of 95W. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are expected across the NW Gulf through Mon. Elsewhere, ridging will support only gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details regarding the on-going gale conditions for offshore Colombia. Aside from the expected gale conditions, fresh to strong E winds are occurring over the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong NE winds are observed through the Windward Passage, and fresh winds to the lee of central Cuba are noted. Seas over the Gulf of Honduras are 5-8 ft, over the Windward Passage are 4-7 ft, and in the lee of Cuba are 3-4 ft. Elsewhere over the Caribbean, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds to gale-force offshore of Colombia will be diminishing shortly. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Ridging along 33N combined with lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough are contributing toward moderate to fresh trades with seas 4-7 ft. Some NE strong winds are also occurring between the Canary Islands and just offshore of S Western Sahara. A prominent tropical upper-tropospheric trough extends from 30N50W to 22N85W with scattered moderate convection occurring along the trough axis from 25N-28N between 57W-63W. For the forecast west of 55W, an expansive Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. On Mon, a weak cold front should push off of the SE United States coast and extend from 31N73W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the cold front is anticipated to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form in its wake. Gradual development of this system will be possible thereafter, while it moves slowly westward over our NW waters north of 28N. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC281632_C_KWBC_20260628163233_32440682-4004-TWDAT.txt ****0000004364**** AXNT20 KNHC 281632 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Jun 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical in the far eastern Atlantic is along 22W, south of 16N. The wave is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N-10N between 20W-26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 12N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is found from 04N-10N between 46W-53W. A tropical wave is over eastern Carribbean along 63W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. No convection is depicted near the wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 07N28W. The ITCZ extends from 07N28W to 0743W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N-10N and west of 19.5W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Moderate to fresh SE winds along with seas 3 to 5 ft prevail over the western Gulf. Elsewhere, gentle or weaker winds along with seas 1 to 3 ft prevail. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the western Gulf, off of Veracruz. Similar convection is also occurring near the Florida Keys waters. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning and then prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details regarding a tropical wave moving across the basin. Strong to near-gale force easterly winds along with seas 8 to 12 ft prevail over the south-cetral Caribbean. Mainly fresh E winds along with seas 5 to 8 ft prevail over the central part of the basin. Fresh easterly winds are also present in the Gulf of Honduras, through the Windward Passage, and the lee of Cuba. Seas within these winds are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate easterly winds prevails with seas 3 to 5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing over the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, reaching near gale-force speeds offshore of Colombia at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Ridging along 25N combined with lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough are contributing toward moderate to fresh trades with seas 5-8 ft over the tropical Atlantic. Some NE strong winds are also occurring between the Canary Islands and just offshore of S Western Sahara. Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds along with seas 3 to 5 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, an expansive Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. On Mon, a weak cold front should push off of the SE United States coast and extend from approximately 31N73W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the cold front is anticipated to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is expected to form along the western end of the frontal system on Monday or Tuesday. Gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it drifts westward over our NW waters north of 28N. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC282333_C_KWBC_20260628233415_9109880-7074-TWDAT.txt ****0000006113**** AXNT20 KNHC 282333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Jun 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W from 02N to 17N moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave axis from 04N to 08N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W south of 13N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is west of the wave to 55W from 07N to 10N. A tropical wave is over eastern Caribbean along 64W south of 20N. It is moving westward near 20 kt. No deep convection is near the wave at the present time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W, and continues southwestward to 08N21W and west-southwestward to 07N28.5W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N35W and to 07N28W to 07.5N45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the trough between 20W-28W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are southeast of the trough from 05N to 08N between 16W-20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1020 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 29N85W, with a ridge extending westward to near central Texas. The related gradient between it and relatively lower pressures in Texas and in northeast Mexico is generally providing for moderate to fresh southeast to south over the western Gulf. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with these winds. Gentle or weaker winds along with seas of 1 to 3 ft are elsewhere across the basin. A mid to upper-level low moving westward across central Cuba has a trough that extends northwestward into the eastern Gulf, where there is ample moisture in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from just west of the Florida Keys to near 84W from 24N to 26N while isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 28N east of 88W. Isolated showers are south of 23N west of 94W while scattered showers are over the central and southeastern portions of Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse off the northwest portion of the Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning, and prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere east of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in Colombia and nearby areas is sustaining strong to near-gale force trades along with seas in the range of 8 to 11 ft across the south-cental Caribbean. Buoy 42058 at 15N75W reported a wave height maximum of 11 ft earlier today. Mostly fresh trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the rest of the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are over the remainder of the basin, with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except a little lower of 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and north of 18N west of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is along and just offshore the northern and western coasts of Jamaica. Similar activity is over some sections of western and eastern Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in Colombia and nearby areas will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean into midweek, except reaching near gale-force speeds offshore of Colombia at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A high pressure ridge axis stretches southwestward from well northeast of the area through a 1026 mb high center at 33N46W, and continues southwestward to 30N67W and west-southwest to across central Florida and over the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between the high pressure ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is favoring trades of moderate to fresh speeds south of about 23N east of the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in east swell from 11N to 15N between 55W and Lesser Antilles. In the far eastern part of the basin, fresh to strong northeast winds are present north of 17N east of 22W to along the coast of Africa due to a tight pressure gradient between the north Atlantic high pressure and broad low pressure in western Africa, where a segment of the monsoon trough is located. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds along with seas 3 to 5 ft remain. For the forecast west of 55W, an expansive Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. On Mon, a weak frontal boundary should emerge off the southeastern United States coast, and reach from approximately 31N73W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the frontal boundary is forecast to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is forecast to along the frontal boundary offshore of the southeastern United States coast on Mon or Tue. Gradual development is possible while the system drifts southward and then westward before environmental conditions become less conducive later this week. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC282344_C_KWBC_20260628234537_32440682-4033-TWDAT.txt ****0000006119**** AXNT20 KNHC 282344 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Jun 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W from 02N to 17N moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated showers are near the wave axis from 04N to 08N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W south of 13N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is west of the wave to 55W from 07N to 10N. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 64W south of 20N. It is moving westward near 20 kt. No deep convection is near the wave at the present time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W, and continues southwestward to 08N21W and west-southwestward to 07N28.5W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N35W to 07N28W and to 07.5N45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the trough between 20W-28W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are southeast of the trough from 05N to 08N between 16W-20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1020 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf near 29N85W, with a ridge extending westward to near central Texas. The related gradient between it and relatively lower pressures in Texas and in northeast Mexico is generally providing for moderate to fresh southeast to south over the western Gulf. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with these winds. Gentle or weaker winds along with seas of 1 to 3 ft are elsewhere across the basin. A mid to upper-level low moving westward across central Cuba has a trough that extends northwestward into the eastern Gulf, where there is ample moisture in place. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from just west of the Florida Keys to near 84W from 24N to 26N while isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 28N east of 88W. Isolated showers are south of 23N west of 94W while scattered showers are over the central and southeastern portions of Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will pulse off the northwest portion of the Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu night. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning, and prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere east of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in Colombia and nearby areas is sustaining strong to near-gale force trades along with seas in the range of 8 to 11 ft across the south-cental Caribbean. Buoy 42058 at 15N75W reported a wave height maximum of 11 ft earlier today. Mostly fresh trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the rest of the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades are over the remainder of the basin, with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except a little lower of 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and north of 18N west of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is along and just offshore the northern and western coasts of Jamaica. Similar activity is over some sections of western and eastern Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in Colombia and nearby areas will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean into midweek, except reaching near gale-force speeds offshore of Colombia at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A high pressure ridge axis stretches southwestward from well northeast of the area through a 1026 mb high center at 33N46W, and continues southwestward to 30N67W and west-southwest to across central Florida and over the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between the high pressure ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is favoring trades of moderate to fresh speeds south of about 23N east of the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in east swell from 11N to 15N between 55W and Lesser Antilles. In the far eastern part of the basin, fresh to strong northeast winds are present north of 17N east of 22W to along the coast of Africa due to a tight pressure gradient between the north Atlantic high pressure and broad low pressure in western Africa, where a segment of the monsoon trough is located. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds along with seas 3 to 5 ft remain. For the forecast west of 55W, an expansive Bermuda-Azores High will dominate the forecast area through Mon. While most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen in the afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. On Mon, a weak frontal boundary should emerge off the southeastern United States coast, and reach from approximately 31N73W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. While the frontal boundary is forecast to dissipate on Wed, a broad low pressure area is forecast to along the frontal boundary offshore of the southeastern United States coast on Mon or Tue. Gradual development is possible while the system drifts southward and then westward before environmental conditions become less conducive later this week. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################