--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC120455_C_KWBC_20260612045550_9109880-5581-TWDAT.txt ****0000006598**** AXNT20 KNHC 120455 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize: Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat. Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern section of the Yucatan Peninsula and over eastern Belize. The heaviest rainfall may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period, primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local meteorological agencies for further guidance. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 22W, S of 15N, moving westward near 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A central Atlantic tropical wave has is axis near 52W, S of 15N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are active from 05N to 06N between 51W and 53W. The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 64W, S of 16N, moving westward around 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is active over the Caribbean, but scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted over central Venezuela near 08N65W. Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring at the present time with this wave over the Caribbean, but scattered convection is noted over Venezuela near 11N69W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near 16N16W and extends southwestward to 06N28W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 14N between 11W and 26W, and from 04N to 08N between 30W and 42W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong E to SE winds off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. These winds are between the western extension of the Atlantic ridge over the eastern Gulf, and a trough reaching from the south-central Gulf, across the Yucatan Peninsula and into northern Central America. Seas are estimated to be 5-6 ft in this area. Associated scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the Bay of Campeche. The pattern is also supporting moderate SE winds elsewhere across the western Gulf, with 3-5 ft seas, and gentle southerly breezes over the eastern Gulf with 1-3 ft breezes. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across northeastern Gulf through Tue. Farther south, broad trough of low pressure extending from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward into the southern Gulf will shift northwestward through the weekend, and move inland across NE Mexico and S Texas on Sun. This pattern will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas shifting from the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula to the coast of Texas through early Sun, accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish early next week after the low pressure moves inland and weakens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong SE winds across the far northwest Caribbean west of 80W, with near- gale force wind between Roatan and northern Belize. These winds are between the Atlantic ridge to the northeast, and a surface trough over northern Central America. Seas are likely 6-8 ft in this area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are likely across the northwest Caribbean, reaching eastward to the Windward Passage. The pattern is also supporting fresh trade winds across the south- central and southeast Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Moderate E winds persist elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place north of region through early next week to support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean, as a pair of tropical waves move westward across the region. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the northwestern Caribbean, to the W of 83W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat night. Expect active showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent Yucatan waters through early Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A few showers and thunderstorms remain active near 28N58W, on the eastern end of a trough extending to 30N50W. A broad ridge extends from the Azores to south of the trough near 24N50W, then across Florida into the eastern Gulf. This pattern is support moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas south of 22N and west of 35W, and mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will shift NE and out of the forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern will support moderate E-SE trade winds S of 23N and gentle anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near the Greater Antilles. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC121035_C_KWBC_20260612103557_32440682-2622-TWDAT.txt ****0000007859**** AXNT20 KNHC 121035 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Heavy rainfall across the Yucatan peninsula and northern Belize: Broad low pressure is expected to develop over northern Central America and southern Mexico over the next couple of days. The combination of sustained upper-level divergence east of an upper low that is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and a tropical wave moving through the Yucatan Peninsula while abundant deep tropical moisture remains in place will provide the potential for heavy rainfall over Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula into Sat. Increasing deep convection is presently over the eastern Bay of Campeche and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula. The heaviest rainfall accumulations may be as high as 6 to 8 inches over this 48 hour period, primarily across northern Belize and southern part of the Mexican state of Quintana Roo. Rainfall of up to 2 to 4 inches is possible across eastern Campeche and eastern Yucatan states as well. Localized flooding is possible. Please refer to local meteorological agencies for further guidance. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 26W-27W, S of 16N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A central Atlantic tropical wave has been added to the 06Z analysis along 46W, S of 15N, moving westward near 15 kt. The wave axis is clearly identified in precipitable water imagery. Nearby convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 56W-57W, S of 12N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W, S of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers prevail between the wave axis and 61W, to the south of 15N. Another eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 73W-74W, south of 18N, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring at the present time near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W and extends southwestward to 08N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ, continuing on to the coast of Brazil near 05.5N53W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is across the waters of W Africa from 02N to 12N E of 18W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 11.5N between 19W and 32W, from 05N to 07.5N between 36W and 41W, and from 05.5N to 07N between 51W and 54W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough extends from the eastern Bay of Campeche northeastward to the offshore waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, and extends into the middle atmosphere. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong E to SE winds across the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to 24N, and east of the surface trough. This feature is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the basin S of 25N between the Yucatan Channel and 93.5W. Weak high pressure across the western Atlantic extends a ridge westward across Florida and into the NE Gulf, and is producing a modest pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough. Seas are estimated to be 5-7 ft across this area. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate SE winds prevail across the western Gulf, with 3-5 ft seas, with gentle southerly winds over the eastern Gulf and 2-3 ft seas. For the forecast, high pressure will persist across northeastern Gulf through Tue. Farther south, a broad trough of low pressure extending from the Yucatan Peninsula northeastward into the southern Gulf will shift slowly northwestward through the weekend, and move inland across NE Mexico and S Texas on Sun. This pattern will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas shifting from the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula to the coast of Texas through early Sun, accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas will diminish Mon and Tue after the low pressure moves inland and weakens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... 1019 mb high pressure near 29N69W extends a ridge westward across Florida and the NE Gulf of America. Two tropical waves are moving quickly across the central Caribbean overnight, south of the ridge. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong SE winds across the far northwest Caribbean west of 80W, with near- gale force wind between Roatan and northern Belize. These winds are occurring between the Atlantic ridge to the northeast, and a surface trough over northern Central America. Seas are likely 5-8 ft in this area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across the northwest Caribbean W of 81W. This pattern is also supporting fresh trade winds across the south- central and southeast Caribbean, with strong winds pulsing off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 7-9 ft. Moderate E winds prevail elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place north of region through early next week to support a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean through Sun, as a pair of tropical waves move westward across the region. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the northwestern Caribbean, to the W of 83W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat evening. Expect active showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent Yucatan waters through early Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms remain active N of 26N between 50W and 59W, associated with a weak area of low pressure near 29.5N58.5W, with an lingering frontal trough extending eastward to 31N41W. A broad ridge extends from the Azores to south of the trough near 24N55W. 1019 mb high pressure is centered W of the low pressure near 29N69W and extends a weak ridge westward across Florida into the eastern Gulf. This pattern is support moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas south of 22N and between 35W and 60W, and moderate E to SE winds @ of 22N between 60W and 80W. Mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere within the ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, the current western Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place through early next week. The weak low pressure near 29.5N58.5W will shift NE and out of the forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern will support moderate E-SE trade winds S of 22N and gentle anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC121754_C_KWBC_20260612175503_32440682-2644-TWDAT.txt ****0000007593**** AXNT20 KNHC 121754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Jun 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 29W from 03N to 16N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 120 nm east of the wave from 08N to 10N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W from 05N to 19N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. The wave axis is clearly identified in precipitable water imagery. Nearby convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 58W south of 16N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is presently occurring near this wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 69W south of 18N, moving westward near 20 kt. Isolated showers are possible near its axis. This wave is likely to merge with the one ahead of it in the near future. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 76W south of 18N, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is presently occurring near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends off the coast of Africa near 15N12W, and extends southwestward to 07N20W and to 06N25W, then ITCZ to 06N29W. It resumes at 06N39W to 06N31W and to inland French Guiana at 04N55W. Numerous moderate to strong convection within 240 nm northwest of the trough between 16W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 38W-46W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad area of low pressure is over the Bay of Campeche, with a 1007 mb low analyzed near 20N94W. A trough extends from the low to 22N96W, and another trough extends from the low to inland Mexico just south of Veracruz and continues to inland Mexico near 19N99W. Increasing moderate to strong convection is seen from 19N to 22N between 92W and 96W. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are within about 300 nm northeast of the low along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Weak high pressure across the western Atlantic has a ridge axis that extends westward across Florida and into the NE Gulf, and is producing a modest pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough. Seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft over this area. Elsewhere across the basin, moderate southeast winds prevail across the western Gulf along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Mostly gentle southerly winds are over the eastern Gulf with seas of 2 to 3 ft. For the forecast, environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development of the broad area of low pressure before it moves inland over eastern Mexico late Sat or Sun. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tue and Wed while interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive for any development. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong southeast winds along with moderate to rough seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Relatively weak high pressure is over the western Atlantic while a pair of tropical waves are moving rather quickly across the central Caribbean. Latest satellite scatterometer data passes indicate fresh to strong southeast winds across the far northwest Caribbean west of about 80W. These winds are occurring between the Atlantic ridge to the northeast, and a surface trough over northern Central America. Seas are 6 to 8 ft over this part of the basin. This pattern is also supporting fresh to locally strong trades over the south-central and southeastern portions of the basin, with strong winds pulsing off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the northwest part of the sea from 18N to 21N between 82W and 87W, and over the eastern portion of Hispaniola. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will generally remain in place through early next week, with its associated gradient supporting a large area of fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean through Sun, as a pair of tropical waves move westward across the region. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong southeast winds and rough seas will also persist over the northwestern Caribbean, mainly west of about 83W, including the Gulf of Honduras through Sat evening. Expect active showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent Yucatan waters through early Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1020 mb over the western Atlantic is near 27.5N68W, a with a broad ridge stretching westward toward Florida. A weak trough extends from near 23N69W to the southeastern Bahamas and to the northeast tip of Cuba. No significant convection is near the trough. To the northeast, a stationary front enters the area through 31N39W and continues to 29N45W, where it begins to dissipate to 29N49W, then continues as a trough to 29N52.5W and to a weak 1019 mb low near 30N57W. A trough extends from the low to near 28N59W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 27N to 29N between 53W and 56W, and along a line from 27N57W to 25N62W. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is southeast of a broad mid to uppe-level trough roughly from 19N to 24N between 62W and 69W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen south of 26N between 72W and 79W. Elsewhere, a 1024 mb high center is analyzed near 31N31W. High pressure covers the area north of 18N between 18W and 50W. The related pressure gradient is generally maintaining moderate to fresh trades south of about 21N and between 34W and 61W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Mostly gentle trades along with seas of 4 to 6 ft are north of 21N and east of 55W while light to gentle south to southwest winds and low seas of 2 to 4 ft are north of 21N and west of 55W. Satellite scatterometer data passes detected these winds. For the forecast west of 55W, the current western Atlantic ridge will generally remain in place through early next week. The weak low pressure near 29.5N58.5W will shift NE and out of the forecast waters through early Sat, then allow the ridge to reorganize across the area through early next week. This pattern will support moderate east to southeast trades south of 22N and gentle anticyclonic winds elsewhere through Sun. Fresh southwest winds will develop across the northwest forecast waters north of 29N and west of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC122112_C_KWBC_20260612211259_9109880-5651-TWDAT.txt ****0000004519**** AXNT20 KNHC 122112 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Jun 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern tropical wave has its axis near 30W S of 15N, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 30W and 33W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 50W S of 16N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave has its axis near 60W south of 16N. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is presently occurring near this wave. The two previous waves in the Caribbean have merged. The axis of the merged tropical wave is near 77W south of 18N, moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant convection is presently occurring near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 06N29W. It resumes near 06N31W to 05N47W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 15N between 11W and 23W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 36W and 46W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1018 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf. A 1007 mb low is centered over the SW Gulf. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the waters S of 25N and W of 87W. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range over these waters. Light winds, and seas of 2 ft, are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity has increased a little near a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche near 20.5N95W. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development before the system moves inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but there too, conditions are only expected to be marginally conducive for any development. The pressure gradient between the low pressure area and a ridge over the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds prevail over the waters W of 85W, as well as over the waters S of 15N between 66W and 75W. Seas over these waters are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail across the central Caribbean through Sun. Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the northwestern Caribbean, to the W of 85W, including the Gulf of Honduras, through Sat night. Expect active showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Yucatan Channel and adjacent Yucatan waters through early Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 24N69W to 20N75W. Scattered convection is SE of the trough. The remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N is dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1024 mb high near 33N45W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, generally prevail over the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the area through early next week. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of 22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW winds will develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun evening through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################