--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC050300_C_KWBC_20260705030118_9109880-7537-TWDAT.txt ****0000005281**** AXNT20 KNHC 050300 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa was added to the analysis. The tropical wave extends along 21W from 04N-16N, and is moving west at 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. An Atlantic tropical wave is near 30N, south of 16N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. An Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W, south of 17N, moving W at around 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W, south of 20N, moving W at at 15-20 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is active on the northern end of the tropical wave moving northward toward the Turks and Caicos Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 10N20W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 09N22W to 08N29W, from 08N31N to 08N40W, and from 07N42W to 07N56W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 11N between 25W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... 1017 mb high pressure is centered near 25N85W. Farther south, a trough reaches across southern Mexico from Chiapas to the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off western Cuba on the northern end of this trough. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and 2-3 ft seas off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and gentle breezes with 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, the weak surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through midweek. These winds are the result of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight to moderate seas are expected. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge extending north of the area across the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong E winds noted off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Seas are 4-6 ft. Fresh E winds are noted off the coast of Honduras, but gentle to moderate breezes and 1-3 ft seas are noted elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. A mid to upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic across eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and toward Nicaragua. Upper level divergent flow along with convergent lower level trade wind flow is support scattered showers and thunderstorms off southern Haiti and northeast Nicaragua. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active near the Yucatan Channel near the northern end of a trough reaching across southern Mexico. For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through midweek. The aerial extent of these winds will increase Sun night into Mon. Expect winds to reach near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela from Sun through Wed. Moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Otherwise, a tropical wave, with axis along 70W, is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms, more concentrated over the Dominican Republic and its Caribbean waters. The wave and its associated moisture will continue to impact parts of the eastern and central Caribbean, including Hispaniola, the rest of this afternoon and tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1022 mb high pressure is centered off the central Bahamas near 27N73W. A trough east of this high pressure reaching from 29N64W to 26N70W separates the high pressure from the dominant subtropical ridge which extends from the Azores southwestward toward 25N65W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas along and west of the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-8 ft seas east and south of the ridge axis. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will continue to build westward across the western Atlantic into central Florida through midweek. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds are likely at night N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, beginning on Sun. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC050934_C_KWBC_20260705093455_32440682-4511-TWDAT.txt ****0000005262**** AXNT20 KNHC 050934 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 23W/24W from 04N-16N, and is moving west at 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. An Atlantic tropical wave is near 33N, south of 16N, moving W at 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. An Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W, south of 17N, moving W at around 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 75W, south of 20N, moving W at at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 17N between 65W and 75W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 10N20W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 10N20W to 08N23W, from 08N25W to 08N32W, from 07N35N to 08N42W, and from 08N44W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 12N between 25W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The subtropical ridge extends along roughly 27N from the western Atlantic, across the Florida peninsula, and across the northern Gulf to the coast of Texas. Farther south, a weak trough is positioned over the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is supporting fresh NE winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to moderate breezes are observed elsewhere. Seas are generally 1-3 ft across the basin. A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the eastern Gulf at the base of an upper trough that extends over the Mississippi River valley. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Thu. These winds are the result of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight to moderate seas are expected basin-wide. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge extending north of the area across the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong E winds noted off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, as confirmed in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. The scatterometer also indicated fresh E winds off the coast of Honduras and into the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere except 1-3 ft in the far northwest Caribbean. A mid to upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic across eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and toward Nicaragua. Upper level divergent flow along with convergent lower level trade wind flow is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off northeast Nicaragua. For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Thu night. The aerial extent of these winds will increase tonight into Mon. Expect winds to reach near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela from today through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong ESE winds are forecast at night Mon and Tue. Otherwise, a tropical wave, with axis along 74W will continue to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean waters today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic north of 20N, and is anchored by 1022 mb high pressure centered near 27N42W. A few showers and thunderstorms are active along a dissipating stationary front that extends from 1016 mb low pressure near 25N52W to Bermuda to 31N75W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas along and west of the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-8 ft seas east and south of the ridge axis. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge will continue to build westward into central Florida through Thu. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds are likely at night N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, beginning today. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC051707_C_KWBC_20260705170859_32440682-4540-TWDAT.txt ****0000005173**** AXNT20 KNHC 051707 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 25W from Cabo Verde southward to 03N, and is moving west at 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. An Atlantic tropical wave is near 35N from 04-17N, moving W at 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. An Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 02-17N, moving W at around 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 75-76W, south of 20N, moving W at at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 10N19W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 10N19W to 08N25W, from 08N27W to 09N34W, from 09N37N to 09N43W, and from 09N46W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 12N between 25W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The subtropical ridge extends across the Florida Peninsula and across the northern Gulf to the coast of Texas. Farther south, a weak trough is positioned over the Bay of Campeche. This pattern is supporting fresh NE winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to moderate breezes are observed elsewhere. Seas are generally 1-3 ft across the basin. Widely scattered moderate convection is active over the eastern Gulf at the base of an upper trough that extends over the Mississippi River valley. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through the forecast period supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf and light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf. The exception will be pulsing winds reaching fresh to locally strong speeds off the northwestern Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Wed. These winds are the result of local effects associated with a surface trough. Slight to moderate seas are expected basin-wide. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge extending north of the area across the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras, with strong E winds noted off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, as confirmed in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5-7 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere except 1-3 ft in the far northwest Caribbean. A mid to upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic across eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and toward Nicaragua. Upper level divergent flow along with convergent lower level trade wind flow is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms off the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Thu night. The aerial extent of these winds will increase tonight into Mon. Expect winds to reach near- gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela from today through Thu. Moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast at night tonight through Tue. Otherwise, a tropical wave, with axis along 75W will continue to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean waters today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic north of 20N, and is anchored by 1025 mb high pressure centered near 29N38W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along a surface trough analyzed from 31N53W to 29N72W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas along and west of the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-8 ft seas east and south of the ridge axis. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to build westward into central Florida through Thu. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds are likely at night N of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, beginning tonight. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################