--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-24 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC240524_C_KWBC_20260524052526_47448518-3967-TWDAT.txt ****0000005973**** AXNT20 KNHC 240524 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun May 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 23W from 13N southward, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the Monsoon Trough and nearby ITCZ, is from 00N to 05N between 20W and 27W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 51W, south of 12N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is near 81W, south of 15N and into the Eastern Pacific region to near 05N. This wave is nearly stationary, with surface and upper air data from San Andres Island indicating the wave remains east of the island. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N23W to 01N45W, east of a tropical wave. Outside of the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered moderate to strong convection has entered the NW Gulf waters mainly N of 26N and W of 88W. Elsewhere, the subtropical Atlantic ridge extends across Florida and much of the central and eastern Gulf waters. Satellite scatterometer data indicates gentle to moderate SE winds across the basin, except for fresh to strong E winds pulsing offshore the Yucatan Peninsula and through the Straits of Florida. Seas across the basin are analyzed at 2-4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf will change little through late Mon, then weaken for the remainder of the week. The related pressure gradient will maintain a gentle to moderate east to southeast wind flow through early Sun, except for light to gentle southeast winds W of about 94W tonight through Tue as a trough develops off the Texas coast. Winds then generally become southeast at gentle to moderate speeds across the basin through midweek, with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. Numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW and north-central Gulf producing frequent lightning with gusty winds will continue to reduce visibility into early Sun. Otherwise, increasing moisture over the southeastern Gulf beginning around the middle portion of the upcoming week should lead to increasing chances for unsettled weather in that part of the Gulf. Mariners are urged to keep up with the latest forecast. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the region and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, satellite scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Satellite altimeter data supports an analysis of 4-7 ft seas across much of the Caribbean, while areas near the north coast of Colombia are seeing seas of 7-9 ft prevail. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing over the waters near Cuba and Hispaniola. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean well into the upcoming week bringing rough seas across those waters. Fresh to strong trades will pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras through the period. Fresh trades elsewhere across the basin will begin to increase in coverage starting early next week as N Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the Atlantic waters, providing for moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas across much of the basin. Winds are locally strong along the northern shore of Hispaniola. Some isolated to scattered moderate convection is moving offshore the SE US and into the western Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to dominate most of the forecast region into early next week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola during the afternoons and evenings going into early next week. The western part of a backdoor cold front will push south across the eastern portion of the area from Sun evening into Mon before stalling near 27N, then begin to weaken, dissipating on Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with moderate to rough seas will follow the front, subsiding late Tue. Elsewhere, trades are forecast to increase over most of the western half of the area starting Mon, including the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as well as the entrance to the Windward Passage as initially stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift east-southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. The high pressure will then begin to weaken Wed allowing for the tight gradient to slacken leading to diminishing trades. Expect for increasing moisture along with unsettled weather conditions for the far western portion of the area beginning around the middle portion of the upcoming week. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC241036_C_KWBC_20260524103718_49676782-3881-TWDAT.txt ****0000005785**** AXNT20 KNHC 241036 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun May 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 25W from 12N southward, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the Monsoon Trough and nearby ITCZ, is from 01S to 09N between 21W and 34W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 52W, south of 12N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered to isolated showers are noted ahead of the wave axis to 58W and south of 10N. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is near 81W, south of 15N and into the Eastern Pacific region to near 05N. This wave is nearly stationary, with surface and upper air data from San Andres Island indicating the wave remains east of the island. Isolated showers over the Panama, Costa Rica and Nicaragua offshore waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N26W to 02N40W to 00N50W. Outside of the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 02S to 04N between 32W and 50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is offshore Liberia and Sierra Leone. GULF OF AMERICA... Middle to upper level diffluence continue to support heavy showers and tstms over the NW, north-central and E Mexico offshore waters. GLM satellite data indicate strong lightning pulses likely generating gusty winds, rough seas and limited visibility in those areas. Otherwise, the Atlantic subtropical ridge that extends into the NE Gulf is supporting gentle to moderate SE winds ahead of the areas of convection along with slight to moderate seas to 5 ft. For the forecast, high pressure extending from the western Atlantic to the NE Gulf will change little through late Mon, then weaken for the remainder of the week. The related pressure gradient will maintain a gentle to moderate E to SE wind flow through this morning, except for light to gentle SE winds W of about 94W through Tue as a trough develops off the Texas coast. Winds then generally become SE at gentle to moderate speeds across the basin through midweek, with slight to moderate seas, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours. Numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW and north-central Gulf producing frequent lightning with gusty winds will continue to reduce visibility through later this morning. Otherwise, increasing moisture over the SE Gulf beginning by mid-week should lead to increasing chances for unsettled weather in that part of the Gulf. Mariners are urged to keep up with the latest forecast. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge that extends into the northern Caribbean, and the Colombian Low continue to support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, trades are moderate to fresh and seas 4-7 ft, except 7-9 ft offshore Colombia. Otherwise, scattered showers are ongoing over the waters adjacent to southern Cuba, the Windward Passage and offshore southern Dominican Republic. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressures in northern South America will support fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean well into the upcoming week bringing rough seas across those waters. Fresh to strong trades will pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras through the period. Fresh trades elsewhere across the basin will begin to increase in coverage starting Mon as N Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic waters, providing moderate to fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas across the waters S of 27N and W of 50W. Winds are locally strong along the northern shore of Hispaniola. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to dominate most of the forecast region into Mon. Fresh to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola during the afternoons and evenings through Mon night. The western part of a backdoor cold front will push south across the eastern portion of the area from tonight into early Mon before stalling near 27N, and dissipating on Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with moderate to rough seas will follow the front, subsiding late Tue. Elsewhere, trades are forecast to increase over most of the western half of the area starting Mon, including the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as well as the entrance to the Windward Passage as initially stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift east- southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. The high pressure will then begin to weaken Wed allowing for the tight gradient to slacken leading to diminishing trades. Expect for increasing moisture along with unsettled weather conditions for the far western portion of the area beginning around the middle portion of the week. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC241600_C_KWBC_20260524160030_47448518-3994-TWDAT.txt ****0000005049**** AXNT20 KNHC 241600 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun May 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 28W from 12N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the Monsoon Trough and nearby ITCZ, is from the equator to 05N between 26W and 31W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 58W, south of 12N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 58W and 61W, including coastal and inland areas of Guyana and Venezuela. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is near 81W, south of 15N and into the Eastern Pacific region to near 05N. This wave is nearly stationary, with surface and upper air data from San Andres Island indicating the wave remains east of the island. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Dakar, Senegal and continues southwestward to 05N25W. The ITCZ extends from 03N31W to 01N50W. Outside of the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N east of 20W. GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered moderate isolated strong convection persists from 24N to 31N between 90W and 97W. This includes a squall line analyzed along 25N between 91W and 97W. This convection, enhanced by upper level divergence, will continue through the afternoon, and provide for locally strong winds. Weak 1011 mb low pressure is co- located in the Bay of Campeche with the diurnal trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail across the Gulf. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. This system will continue to support a gentle to moderate E to SE wind flow through the middle of the week, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. An upper-level disturbance continues to enhance the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf, more concentrated over the NW part of the basin. These thunderstorms are capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally rough seas. The SE flow will continue to advect abundant tropical moisture through at least the middle of the week helping to induce more convective activity across the Gulf waters. Mariners are urged to keep up with the latest forecast. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian Low continues to support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean, including off the southern tip of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, trades are moderate to fresh per the latest scatterometer data. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through at least Wed night. Fresh to locally strong trades will pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras through the period. Fresh trades elsewhere across the basin will begin to increase in coverage starting Mon as a stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic waters, providing moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas across the basin. Winds are light to gentle north of 25N, in closer proximity to high pressures centered north of the area. For the forecast west of 55W, winds are forecast to increase over most of the waters S of 25N starting Mon, including the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as well as the entrance to the Windward Passage as a stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift east-southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. The high pressure will then begin to weaken Wed allowing for the tight pressure gradient to slacken leading to diminishing winds. Fresh to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola through Tue night into Wed. The western part of a cold front will push south across the eastern portion of the area from tonight into early Mon before stalling near 27N, and dissipating on Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with moderate to rough seas will follow the front, subsiding late Tue. $$ Mahoney ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC242152_C_KWBC_20260524215332_47448518-4011-TWDAT.txt ****0000005125**** AXNT20 KNHC 242152 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon May 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2140 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 30W from 12N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is observed near this tropical wave at this time. A tropical wave is analyzed south of Barbados along 59W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident over Guyana and western Venezuela. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is near 82W, south of 14N and into the Eastern Pacific region to near 05N. The position is based in part on the morning upper air sounding from San Andres Island. This wave is drifting west at 5 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Dakar, Senegal and continues southwestward to 05N25W. The ITCZ extends from 03N30W. The ITCZ continues form 03N30W to 01N50W. No significant convection is evident at this time. GULF OF AMERICA... Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is active over the central Gulf this afternoon, along a squall line reaching from just south of the mouth of the Mississippi River to 24N94W. Scattered moderate convection is also active near 28N87W, and off Brownsville, Texas. This convection is active in an area of upper level divergence, ahead of a mid/upper level trough reaching from central Texas to the Bay of Campeche. Strong gusty winds and rough seas are likely along the squall line. Gentle to moderate SE winds and 2-4 seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. This system will continue to support a gentle to moderate E to SE wind flow through the middle of the week, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. An upper-level disturbance continues to enhance the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf, more concentrated over the NW part of the basin. These thunderstorms are capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, limited visibility and locally rough seas. The SE flow will continue to advect abundant tropical moisture through at least the middle of the week helping to induce more convective activity across the Gulf waters. Mariners are urged to keep up with the latest forecast. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian Low continues to support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean, including off the southern tip of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras, as noted in recent scatterometer satellite data. Elsewhere, trades are moderate to fresh per the latest scatterometer data. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean with rough seas through at least Wed night. Fresh to locally strong trades will pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras through the period. Fresh trades elsewhere across the basin will begin to increase in coverage starting Mon as a stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic waters, providing moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas across the basin mainly south of 25N. Winds are light to gentle north of 25N, with 3-5 ft seas, in closer proximity to high pressures centered north of the area. For the forecast west of 55W, winds are forecast to increase over most of the waters S of 25N starting Mon, including the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as well as the entrance to the Windward Passage as a stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. The high pressure will then begin to weaken Wed allowing for the tight pressure gradient to slacken leading to diminishing winds and seas. Fresh to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola through Tue night into Wed morning creating moderate to rough seas. The western part of a cold front will push south across the eastern portion of the area from tonight into early Mon before stalling near 27N, and dissipating on Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with these marine conditions subsiding on Tue. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################