--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC110331_C_KWBC_20261011033204_4522426-6239-TWDAT.txt ****0000005705**** AXNT20 KNHC 110331 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0325 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave and monsoon trough near 12N28W. The broad system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from 07N to 17N and between 20W and 33W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong cyclonic winds associated with this feature. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 16N and between 33W and 46W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to interact with an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean, and is supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over much of the NW Caribbean. Diurnal heating and the features described are also enhancing convection over Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to a 1011 mb low near 12N28W and then to a 1012 mb low near 10N40W and to 07N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N44W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, convection is limited elsewhere. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle near Apalachicola south and southwest to 24N90W and 23N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found ahead of the front over the eastern Gulf waters. A surface trough is analyzed over Yucatan and extending northward to 25N86W. A few showers are also evident near these trough, however, the strongest convection is occurring over the Yucatan peninsula. The moderate pressure gradient between the high pressure over the southern United States and the aforementioned cold front support moderate to locally fresh easterly winds over much of the NW and north- central Gulf, along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh SW winds and scattered thunderstorms will persist over the NE Gulf through tonight. The aforementioned front will move across the southeast Gulf through mid week, while lifting northward as a dissipating warm front over the western Gulf. High pressure will build behind the front over the north- central Gulf, supporting E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast by mid week, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active tropical wave in the western Caribbean. High pressure north of the islands extends into the Caribbean, forcing moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas across much of the basin. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off Colombia. A broad upper-level low approaching the Leeward Islands is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean, affecting much of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the eastern and central Caribbean through the early part of the week, with fresh to strong E winds and rough seas across the Windward Passage and off Colombia. These winds and seas will diminish through mid week as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N49W and continues southwestward to 28N55W, followed by a stationary front to 26N61W and then northwestward to 31N69W. A few showers are noted near these boundaries. Meanwhile, showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident off NE Florida ahead of a cold front moving across the eastern Gulf of America. The modest pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the NW Atlantic and the aforementioned front and a trough north of the Leeward Islands sustain moderate to locally strong anticyclonic winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, west of 60W and north of the front west of 50W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1025 mb high pressure located just SE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports moderate to locally strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough to about 26N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the NE Florida coast early Mon, reach from 31N75W to near Jupiter Inlet, Florida by early Tue, and then stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by early Wed. Looking ahead, fresh N winds and building seas may follow another front reaching along 30N east of 75W by late Thu night. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC111014_C_KWBC_20261011101506_4522426-6262-TWDAT.txt ****0000005462**** AXNT20 KNHC 111014 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave and monsoon trough near 13N27W. The broad system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from 06N to 17N and between 22W and 36W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 17N and between 33W and 45W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to interact with an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean, and is supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over much of the NW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to a 1010 mb low near 14N27W, to a 1011 mb low near 10N41W and to 06N46W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 05N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection noted long the monsoon trough and E of 24W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from 30N84W to 25N97W, then becomes stationary to 23N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found ahead of the front over the eastern Gulf waters. A pair of surface troughs are analyzed S of the front across the southwestern portion of the basin. Scattered showers are also evident near these troughs. The moderate pressure gradient between the high pressure over the southern United States and the aforementioned cold front support moderate to fresh easterly winds over much of the NW and north- central Gulf, along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh SW winds, moderate seas, and scattered thunderstorms will persist over the NE Gulf through today. The front will move across the southeast Gulf through mid week. High pressure will build behind the front over the north-central Gulf, supporting E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast by mid week, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active tropical wave in the western Caribbean. High pressure north of the islands extends into the Caribbean, forcing moderate to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas across much of the basin. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off Colombia. A broad upper-level low paired with an induced surface trough approaching the Leeward Islands is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean, affecting much of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, the surface trough will maintain unsettled weather across the NE Caribbean through today. High pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through the early part of the week, with fresh to strong E winds and rough seas across the Windward Passage and off Colombia. These winds and seas will diminish through mid week as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N48W and continues southwestward to 28N54W, then becomes stationary to 31N70W. A few showers are noted near these boundaries. Meanwhile, showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident off NE Florida ahead of a cold front moving across the eastern Gulf of America. The modest pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the NW Atlantic and the aforementioned front and a trough north of the Leeward Islands sustain moderate to locally strong anticyclonic winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, west of 60W and north of the front west of 50W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1025 mb high pressure located just SE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports moderate to locally strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough to about 26N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move off the NE Florida coast early Mon, reach from 31N75W to near Jupiter Inlet, Florida by early Tue, and then stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by early Wed. Fresh N winds and building seas may follow another front reaching along 30N east of 75W by late Thu night. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC111645_C_KWBC_20261011164627_31523192-6243-TWDAT.txt ****0000007241**** AXNT20 KNHC 111645 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 20N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. A 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed along monsoon trough near 12.5N29W. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows strong S to SW winds to 30 kt across the SE semicircle and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the N semicircle. Seas are 8 to 11 ft across these areas. This broad system is producing a large area of scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 06.5N to 17N and between 20W and 36W. Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 18N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 15.5N and between 38W and 44W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88.5W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to interact with an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean and Central America, and is supporting scattered moderate strong convection over the NW Caribbean and adjacent portions of Central America from 10N to 18.5N between 82W and 89.5W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues to 14N27W then southwestward to a 1012 mb low near 12.5N29W to 11.5N36W to 07.5N46W. The ITCZ extends from 07N47W to 07N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 20W and the coast of Africa. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends across northern Florida and enters the NE Gulf waters near Cedar Key and continues southwestward to 26.5N86W where it has become stationary and continues to 23.5N94W to the Mexican coast near 24N98W. from 30N84W to 25N97W, then becomes stationary to 23N97W. Scattered moderate convection is found along a pre-frontal trough from the Tampa Bay area southwestward to 25N87.5W and within 90 nm N of the front between 93W and 98W. A surface trough is analyzed S of the front near the Mexican coast from just north of Tampico to near Veracruz, where scattered moderate convection is also evident. 1020 mb high pressure has shifted southward into the N central Gulf, centered just E of the mouth of the Mississippi River, and extends a broad ridge behind the front. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail N of the front to 28.5N, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. However, NE swell generated by Isaias continues to move across the western Gulf, and is producing 6 to 7 ft seas from 21N to 24N W of 94W, where large waves are generating rough surf along much of the Mexican coast W of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the cold front will move across the southeast Gulf through mid week. High pressure building behind the front over the north- central Gulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. Large NE swell in the west-central Gulf W of 94W is subsiding this morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active tropical wave in the western Caribbean. A large upper level low center is shifting westward across the eastern Caribbean, and generating a significant area of scattered moderate convection from 13N to 18N between 59W and 69W. At the surface, high pressure remains well north of the basin across the NW Atlantic. The modest pressure gradient across the Caribbean is forcing moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas to 8 ft across most of the basin E of 82W. A few areas of strong winds are occurring S of Hispaniola, through the Windward Passage, and along the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, an upper level low will support scattered showers and thunderstorms E of 68W to the Leeward Islands. Another upper trough will also support thunderstorms across the western Caribbean. High pressure well north of the area will support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the eastern and central Caribbean through into Mon, with fresh to strong E winds and rough seas across the Windward Passage and off Colombia. These winds and seas will diminish Tue as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf of America and western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N45W and continues southwestward to 28N52W, then becomes stationary to 27N64W to 31N69W. Scattered showers are noted within 120 nm S of these boundaries between 51W and 64W, then become scattered to numerous within 180 nm SE of the cold front between 43W and 51W. Meanwhile, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue in a 75 nm wide band off NE Florida, ahead of a cold front moving across the eastern Gulf of America and N Florida. The modest pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the NW Atlantic and the aforementioned front north of the Leeward Islands is sustaining moderate easterly winds S of 25N between 63W and the central Bahamas, and moderate to fresh southerly winds across the northern Bahamas and waters W of 76W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft S of 25N and 4 to 7 ft from the NW Bahamas northward. NW Atlantic high pressure is forcing fresh to locally strong N to NE winds behind the fronts between 45W and 66W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1022 mb high pressure located SE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports moderate to locally strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough to about 24N and E of 44W, with strong winds about the 2 tropical waves. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front moving through Florida will enter the Atlantic off NE Florida this evening, and into the adjacent offshore waters overnight. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by early Tue. The northern part of the front will continue to move eastward before stalling and dissipating through mid week, while the western part lifts northward across the Bahamas and Florida while dissipating. Looking ahead, moderate NW winds may follow another front stalling along 30N to the southeast of Bermuda by late Thu night. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################