--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC190454_C_KWBC_20261019045553_21889468-5730-TWDAT.txt ****0000008375**** AXNT20 KNHC 190454 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front has stalled tonight across the southern Gulf, from the Straits of Florida to near 22N90W to the central Bay of Campeche and into the coast of Mexico near 93W. Satellite imagery suggests that the portion of the front W of 90W has been drifting westward in recent hours. 1026 mb high pressure has moved into far NE Mexico, while 1035 mb high pressure is across the NE U.S. extending a ridge southward across the basin. The pressure gradient south of these highs is forcing gale-force NW to N winds and very rough seas of 14-20 ft across the SW waters of the Gulf, S of 21N between the front and the Mexican coastline, while fresh to strong E-NE to NE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail across most of the remainder of the basin N of the front. The front will remain generally stationary and weaken into Tue. Gale winds and very rough seas to 15 ft will prevail in the SW basin through sunrise, then slowly diminish through Tue night. Atlantic Gale Warning: The aforementioned cold front is eastward across the Atlantic waters N of 27N, and extends through 31N71.5W to 27N73W then becomes nearly stationary through the NW Bahamas and into the Straits of Florida. W of the cold front, N-NE to NE winds of 20 to 30 kt prevail, with winds near gale-force and frequent gusts to 40 kt N of 29N and W of 73W, where a Gale Warning is in effect. Very rough seas of 12 to 16 ft prevail across these waters. The front is associated with a deep low pressure system across the western Atlantic currently near 32N71W. The low is expected to lift northward overnight, which will slow the forward progress of the front. Winds west of the front are expected to gradually diminish later tonight, with gales ending by morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across western Africa to the coast of Guiea-Bissau near 12N16W and extends about 60 nm to the southwest. The ITCZ extends from 07N21W to 06N36W to 09.5N45W to the coast of Guyana near 06.5N58W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N to 16.5N between 35W and 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... See the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning in effect for portions of the southwest basin. Outside of the gales, recent satellite scatterometer data shows strong E-NE winds 20-28 kt E of 92W, and fresh to strong NE to N winds W of 92W and N of 21N. Seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail across most of the basin N of the front, highest SW portions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the front. For the forecast, the front will meander about over the Straits of Florida and to the NW Yucatan Peninsula and Bay of Campeche tonight through Mon, then drift to the southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gale-force winds will persist over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz through early Mon morning, while winds and seas diminish modestly across the remainder of the basin. High pressure behind the front will continue to support fresh NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf through Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening upper-level trough across the NW Caribbean continues to support scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection across the Gulf of Honduras and the waters within 150 nm of the NE coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua, while moderate convection is further south across the SW basin in association with the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Stable atmospheric conditions and fair skies prevail across most of the basin elsewhere E of 72W. A weak pressure gradient across the region is yielding only moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-6 ft seas across the central Caribbean S of 16N between 64W and 78W. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 ft or less prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient prevails across the region due to a frontal boundary across the Bahamas and the southern Gulf of America, and will maintain moderate to fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean through Wed night and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. The cold front will likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel Mon night into Tue where it will remain through Wed before dissipating. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to rough seas will impact the waters of Yucatan Channel and the NW Caribbean through early Wed morning. Moderate to fresh SE winds will develop in the eastern Caribbean on Thu, and prevail through Fri night as surface ridging builds N of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for information on gales ongoing southwest of Bermuda behind the cold front moving through western Atlantic waters. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows NE to N winds of 30 to 50 kt across a broad area of the western Atlantic to the W of a 1010 mb surface low near 31N71W and an associated frontal zone. Large seas of 12 to 20 ft in N to NE swell prevail across the local waters N of 28N and W of 71W. Recent satellite altimeter data showed seas 13-14 ft in the Gulfstream offshore of Miami and Ft Lauderdale. Seas are 8 to 12 ft elsewhere NW of the front outside of the Bahamas. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring along and within 180 nm S of the front between 71W and 80W. To the east of this cold front, a deep layered upper low continues across the central Atlantic near 27N51W, and is promoting unstable atmospheric conditions across that area. A pair of surface troughs near this feature, along 60W and 53W are accompanied by scattered moderate convection from 22N to 29N between 48W and 60W. Another more significant surface trough from 31N49W to 23N42W is interacting favorably with the upper low to produce scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection along and within 240 nm E of this surface trough. Fresh to locally strong E to E-SE winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft in mixed N swell and E wind waves are found east of the surface trough to 40W. Moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail near the pair of troughs to the W. To the south of these features, a weak pressure gradient is yielding gentle to moderate easterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. A series of 3 low level easterly perturbations in the trade wind flow are producing scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 09N to 16.5N between 35W and 52W. To the E of 35W moderate to fresh NE to E winds generally prevail between the Canary Islands, Africa and 35W, with seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW to N swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will extend from 31N71W to the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida by early Mon morning, and from near 31N70W to west-central Cuba by Mon night, where it will weaken before dissipating into midweek. The low pressure system associated with the front near 32N71W will lift northward tonight, allowing winds to gradually diminish behind the front tonight through Mon. Large N to NE swell generated by this low pressure will affect the Atlantic waters W of 68W through Tue night, then subside modestly, then increase again Wed through Fri across the waters W of 65W. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################