--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC190426_C_KWBC_20260819042726_31523192-1189-TWDAT.txt ****0000005010**** AXNT20 KNHC 190426 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28N, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 07N to 14N between 24W and 34.5W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 47W, south of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 66W, south of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed south of 11.5N between 63W and the wave axis. The tropical wave previously analyzed over the western Caribbean is now been discussed in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP). ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... Th monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N20W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 13N and east of 24W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 34.5W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak high pressure centered near 27N89.5W supports moderate to locally fresh W-NW winds across the NE Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh NE winds across the southern Gulf. Slight seas to 3 ft dominate the basin. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is depicted over the Bay of Campeche is association to a surface trough over the area. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the forecast period. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge recently north of the Caribbean has shifted eastward as a frontal system has moved southward of 30N. The remnants of the ridge extend from the central Atlantic to N of Puerto Rico along 18N. This weakened pressure pattern is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft from 66W into Central America, with locally strong winds offshore Colombia. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Thunderstorms are active across the coastal waters and inland from Costa Rica to NE Honduras, behind a tropical wave. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south- central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail in the north-central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N50W to a 1015 mb low pres near 27N65W, followed by a weak cold front to the southwest. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of the stationary front. Moderate SW winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted south of the front to 26N between 31W and 65W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge centered on a 1027 mb high near 40W33W, that extends southwestward to just north of the NE Caribbean. Trade winds across the Atlantic S of 21N and W of 30W are moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas. However, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found in the far eastern Atlantic off NW Mauritania and southern Western Sahara. Saharan Air continues to dominate the Atlantic basin N of 12N and east of the Caribbean, as well as the southern Bahamas, central and NW Caribbean and into the SE Gulf of America. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundaries will weaken to a frontal trough tonight into Wed. Elsewhere, weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across much of the area north of 22N through the week and into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds can be expected south of 22N. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC190936_C_KWBC_20260819093628_31523192-1213-TWDAT.txt ****0000004427**** AXNT20 KNHC 190936 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0925 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 12N and between 23W and 33W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 48W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 67W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 09N30W and to 09N49W. The ITCZ extends from 09N49W to 09N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 04N to 15N and east of 33W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak high pressure pattern forces gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas across much of the Gulf waters. Locally fresh easterly winds are found in the eastern Bay of Campeche. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are found in the NE Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Dry weather conditions are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the forecast period. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean is supporting fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are found elsewhere. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the SW Caribbean, while dry weather conditions prevail in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south- central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail in the north-central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary remains stationary from 31N50W to a 1015 mb low pres near 28N63W, followed by a dissipating stationary front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the waters near and ahead of these boundaries. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a high pressure system that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. The central and eastern tropical Atlantic are dominated by broad ridging that sustains moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas. However, fresh NE winds are present north of the monsoon trough to 27N and east of 30W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundaries will weaken to a frontal trough today. Elsewhere, weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across much of the area north of 22N through the week and into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds can be expected south of 22N, especially off northern Hispaniola. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC191646_C_KWBC_20260819164744_4522426-1034-TWDAT.txt ****0000004994**** AXNT20 KNHC 191646 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 32W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N and between 27W and 33W. A tropical wave is near 50W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited at this time. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis is along 71W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern end of the wave axis, just south of Dominican Republic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal, south of Dakar, and continues westward to 11N30W and to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to NE Venezuela near 09N62W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 12N and east of 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge dominates the Gulf region, anchored by a 1018 mb high pressure located near 27N90W. This weather pattern supports a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas. Locally fresh easterly winds are found in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to a thermal trough. An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, is affecting the SW and west-central parts of the Gulf. An upper-level low spinning over NE Mexico is helping to induce this convective activity. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the forecast period. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the central part of the basin. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the offshore waters of Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, including the Mona Passage. Similar convective activity is affecting parts of western Panama and Costa Rica. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, is observed elsewhere producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail in the north-central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near 31N48W to a 1015 mb low pressure located near 29N62W. A trough extends from the low center to near the SE Bahamas. A band of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is associated with these features. Satellite derived winds data show moderate to fresh S to SW winds within about 150 nm south of the stationary front between 48W and 50W, and within about 90 nm south of the front between 59W and 62W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by the Azores High centered near 40N32W. Under the influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate winds are occurring S of 24N E of 40W, and S of 22N W of 40W, with the exception of moderate to fresh NE winds from 20N to 24N E of 26W. Seas are generally moderate E of 70W, and slight to moderate W of 70. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned stationary front will weaken to a frontal trough today. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across much of the area north of 22N through the week and into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh trades are expected south of about 22N, especially off northern Hispaniola through the period. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC191647_C_KWBC_20260819164944_4522426-1035-TWDAT.txt ****0000004991**** AXNT20 KNHC 191647 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Aug 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 32W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 10N and between 27W and 33W. A tropical wave is near 50W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited at this time. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis is along 71W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern end of the wave axis, just south of Dominican Republic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal, south of Dakar, and continues westward to 11N30W and to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to NE Venezuela near 09N62W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 12N and east of 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge dominates the Gulf region, anchored by a 1018 mb high pressure located near 27N90W. This weather pattern supports a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas. Locally fresh easterly winds are found in the eastern Bay of Campeche due to a thermal trough. An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms, is affecting the SW and west-central parts of the Gulf. An upper-level low spinning over NE Mexico is helping to induce this convective activity. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through the forecast period. A weak pressure pattern will support mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to locally moderate seas across much of the basin. A diurnally induced surface trough will generate fresh to locally strong winds north and west of the Yucatan peninsula early each evening. These winds will spread westward away from the Yucatan at night as the trough migrates into the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds across the remainder of the central part of the basin. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted across the offshore waters of Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, including the Mona Passage. Similar convective activity is affecting parts of western Panama and Costa Rica. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, is observed elsewhere producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through much of the forecast period. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail in the north-central and eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near 31N48W to a 1015 mb low pressure located near 29N62W. A trough extends from the low center to near the SE Bahamas. A band of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is associated with these features. Satellite derived winds data show moderate to fresh S to SW winds within about 150 nm south of the stationary front between 48W and 50W, and within about 90 nm south of the front between 59W and 62W. The remainder of the Atlantic is dominated by the Azores High centered near 40N32W. Under the influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate winds are occurring S of 24N E of 40W, and S of 22N W of 40W, with the exception of moderate to fresh NE winds from 20N to 24N E of 26W. Seas are generally moderate E of 70W, and slight to moderate W of 70. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned stationary front will weaken to a frontal trough today. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds, locally moderate, across much of the area north of 22N through the week and into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh trades are expected south of about 22N, especially off northern Hispaniola through the period. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################