--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC020334_C_KWBC_20260802033518_49676782-9920-TWDAT.txt ****0000004131**** AXNT20 KNHC 020334 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Aug 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. No convection is noted with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and dives southwestward to 10N43W. The ITCZ extends from 10N43W to 10N51W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the east-central Gulf. A 1015 mb surface high pressure is centered near 24N86W. This pattern is supporting moderate W winds and 2-4 ft seas off the northern Gulf coast, and light to gentle breezes and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over much of the NE Gulf N of 25N and E of 90W into the upcoming week as an upper-level trough and a cold front approach the Gulf coast. Moderate to fresh southwest winds will continue over the far northern Gulf through Sunday evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over Costa Rica and Panama. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge situated in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft across much of the central and eastern Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the persistent pressure gradient across the Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades over the central basin through the rest of the weekend and into most of next week. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, currently over the central Caribbean near 72W, is accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over Hispaniola and the adjacent nearshore waters. The wave will continue quickly moving westward across the remainder of the basin through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft associated with a couple of upper-level troughs result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the area north of 25N and west of 60W. The remainder of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic is influenced by a 1026 mb high pressure area centered near 33N54W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas across much of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will change little through Tue, then lift to N of 31N on Wed. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the majority of the area into the upcoming week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period $$ ERA --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC020957_C_KWBC_20260802095741_47448518-9895-TWDAT.txt ****0000004911**** AXNT20 KNHC 020957 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Aug 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 73.5W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the Windward Passage and over the waters between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti as well as in the lee of Cuba. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and dives southwestward to 10N46W. The ITCZ extends from 10N46W to 10N51W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ, as well as from 07N to 10N between 30W and 37W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the eastern Gulf. A 1015 mb surface high pressure is centered near 25N85W. This pattern is supporting fresh to locally strong W to SW winds and 3-6 ft seas off the northern Gulf coast, and gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exceptions will be fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period, as well as the far northern Gulf, where an inland cold front will induce moderate to fresh W to SW winds through Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over much of the NE Gulf N of 25N and E of 90W into the upcoming week as an upper-level trough and a cold front approach the Gulf coast. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over Costa Rica, Panama, and southern Nicaragua. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge situated in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to strong E winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. Winds are near gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela, confirmed by scatterometer data from earlier this evening. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, an enhanced pressure gradient across the Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades over the central basin through much of the week ahead. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, currently over the central Caribbean near 73W, is accompanied by scattered moderate convection near the Windward Passage and the nearby waters between Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola as well as in the lee of Cuba. The wave will continue quickly moving westward across the remainder of the basin through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft associated with a couple of upper-level troughs result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the area north of 25N and west of 60W. The remainder of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic is influenced by a 1026 mb high pressure area centered near 33N54W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas across much of the basin. Fresh to strong trades continue pulsing along the northern coast of Hispaniola. In the waters offshore the SE US coast, fresh to strong SW winds are occurring in advance of a cold front currently inland. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic to the Straits of Florida will change little through Tue, then lift to N of 31N on Wed. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the majority of the area into the upcoming week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period. $$ Adams --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC021605_C_KWBC_20260802160643_47448518-9919-TWDAT.txt ****0000005077**** AXNT20 KNHC 021605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Aug 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are present from 07N to 12N and between 28W and 36W. A tropical wave has been repositioned along 61W, south of 17N, based on surface observations, satellite and wave guidance data. The wave is moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 14N and between 58W and 64W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are seen near the northern portion of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and dives southwestward to a 1012 mb low pres near 14N27W and then to 10N45W. The ITCZ extends from 10N45W to 09N58W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 12N between east of 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The western portion of the subtropical ridge extends across the Florida Straits into the Gulf waters and along with a frontal boundary to the north, sustain moderate to fresh westerly winds and moderate seas north of 27N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. The aforementioned frontal boundary and an upper-level trough over the eastern United States maintain unstable conditions across the area, producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern half of the Gulf. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that stronger winds are occurring near the stronger convection. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate winds into the upcoming week. The exceptions will be fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period, as well as the far northern Gulf, where an inland cold front will induce moderate to fresh W to SW winds through Mon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over the eastern Gulf, and over the central Gulf N of 25N between 87W and 90W into the upcoming week as an upper-level trough and a cold front approach the Gulf coast. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the northern Caribbean waters, especially near Puerto Rico, eastern Hispaniola and south of eastern Cuba. A few showers are also seen in the SW Caribbean. The westward- building subtropical high pressure system positioned over the central Atlantic forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, an enhanced pressure gradient across the Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades over the central basin through much of the week ahead. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, near 79W is accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms between Jamaica and eastern Cuba and near the Windward Passage. The wave will continue quickly moving westward across the remainder of the basin through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Favorable upper-level conditions and abundant tropical moisture combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW North Atlantic, west of 60W. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1028 mb high pressure system centered near 33N55W, supporting fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 4-7 ft north of 28N and west of 75W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the remaining tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic to South Florida will change little through Tue, then lift N to central Florida on Wed and N of 31N on Thu. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, along with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the majority of the area into the upcoming week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period. $$ Delgado --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC022231_C_KWBC_20260802223124_49676782-9989-TWDAT.txt ****0000004593**** AXNT20 KNHC 022231 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Aug 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from 06N to 10N and between 30W and 35W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over northeastern Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 81W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and dives southwestward to a 1011 mb low pressure near 16N30W and then to 10N45W. No significant convection is evident other than already described in the Tropical Wave section. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front reaches from Mobile Bay, Alabama across the far northwest Gulf to Galveston Bay, Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the northern Gulf from Texas to the Big Bend area of Florida. The Atlantic ridge extends east to west along roughly 24N, from the Florida Straits to the coast of Tamaulipas in northeast Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh SW to W winds north of 28N where seas are 3-5 ft, and gentle to moderate breezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate winds into the upcoming week. The exceptions will be fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period, as well as the far northern Gulf, where a cold front approaching the coast will help to induce moderate to fresh W to SW winds through Mon. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected over the eastern Gulf, and over the central Gulf N of 25N between 87W and 92W into the upcoming week as a mid to upper-level trough and a cold front approach the Gulf coast. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The westward- building subtropical high pressure system positioned over the central Atlantic forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas over much of the central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the pattern will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin through much of the week ahead. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, near 82W is helping to enhance numerous showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean. The wave will move inland Central America late tonight into early Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Favorable upper-level conditions and abundant tropical moisture combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms between the northern Bahamas and Bermuda. Elsewhere, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 33N56W, supporting fresh to locally strong southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft north of 28N and west of 75W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the remaining tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the pattern will change little through Tue, then lift north to central Florida on Wed and north of 31N on Thu. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a cold front moving through the southeastern U.S. will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, along with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the majority of the area well into the upcoming week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################