--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-04-03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC030505_C_KWBC_20260403050542_9109880-449-TWDAT.txt ****0000004728**** AXNT20 KNHC 030505 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Apr 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W and continues to 01N35W to 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06S to 05N between 15W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge prevails over the Gulf waters. A scatterometer pass show mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the eastern half of the basin where altimeter, buoys and ship data are showing 3 to 6 ft seas. Winds and seas of similar magnitude are ongoing also over the Gulf waters W of 90W. For the forecast, a broad western Atlantic surface ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Sat morning, then weaken Sat afternoon and night as a cold front approaches. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the basin, with occasional strong winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and across the northwestern Gulf and through the Florida Straits through Sat. A cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early Sun and move southeastward through early next week, reaching from near Fort Myers, FL to 23N94W to the central Bay of Campeche Tue morning. Expected strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area extending into the northern basin, and the Colombian low, is supporting fresh to strong NE winds offshore Colombia, south of Hispaniola and also in the Winward Passage as indicated by scatterometer data. Seas over these areas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the surface ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh winds pulsing to strong with rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night, and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas in the south sides of Cuba and Hispaniola as well as the Windward Passage through Fri night, before winds and seas diminish over the weekend. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue, and yield fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A series of six centers of high pressure N of the area extend a ridge across the entire subtropical waters. A surface trough is over the offshore waters E of the Leeward Islands and is generating scattered to isolated showers over the central subtropical waters between 41W and 58W. Scatterometer data show that the pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the offshores NW of the trough, the southern Bahamas offshores as well as the approaches to the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are also between the trough and the Bahamas, or between 55W and 70W where seas are rough to 11 ft. Fresh E winds are across the Great Bahama Bank while moderate winds are elsewhere W of 50W. Over the far E Atlantic, another surface trough extends from 26N22W to 21N28W, which is tightening the gradient of pressure and supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 37W, including the Canary Islands. Seas over this region are 7-8 ft. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure extending from the central Atlantic west-southwestward into the SE U.S. will drift slowly SW and weaken modestly through Sun morning. This pattern will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas mainly south of 29N, including the central and southeast Bahamas, through this weekend. By late Sun, the high will have weakened and shifted to NE of Bermuda, while an inverted surface trough forms from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic. A cold front is expected to exit the southeastern U.S. early Mon and move slowly southeastward, reaching from 31N72W to central Florida by Tue morning. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC031003_C_KWBC_20260403100428_38666572-405-TWDAT.txt ****0000003645**** AXNT20 KNHC 031003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Apr 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W and continues to 01N42W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between 15W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... With high pressure centered NE of the basin, moderate to fresh SE winds dominate, along with seas of 3 to 6 ft. No significant convection is ongoing. For the forecast, high pressure dominating the basin will weaken and slide east by Sat, allowing a cold front to move offshore Texas Sat night. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh SE winds will dominate, except for the Florida Straits where locally strong E winds will prevail. The cold front will slowly track into the SE basin by early next week, with strong NE winds expect across portions of the northern and western Gulf behind the front, along with rough seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong NE winds offshore Colombia, south of Hispaniola and also in the Windward Passage. Seas over these areas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Upper-level divergence is yielding scattered moderate convection in the NW basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia, Cuba, Hispaniola, and through the Windward Passage into Sat. This weekend, the high will weaken some and move east, loosening the gradient and allowing winds and seas to decrease some. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue, maintaining fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure N of the area extends a ridge across the entire subtropical waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough is supporting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the offshores N of the Greater Antilles, including the southern and central Bahamas and the Windward Passage. Seas in this area are up to 11 ft. Over the far E Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 26N22W to 21N28W, which is tightening the gradient of pressure and supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 37W, including the Canary Islands. It is also now generating scattered moderate convection from 23N to 27N between 19W and 24W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, winds and seas will only slowly decrease through the weekend as the high weakens and slides eastward. An inverted surface trough will from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic by Sun night, weakening winds further. A cold front is expected to exit the southeastern U.S. early Mon and move slowly southeastward, reaching from 31N70W to South Florida by Tue morning. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC031741_C_KWBC_20260403174152_9109880-488-TWDAT.txt ****0000004506**** AXNT20 KNHC 031741 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Apr 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W and continues to 01N42W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between 15W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... With high pressure centered NE of the basin, moderate to fresh SE winds dominate, along with seas of 3 to 6 ft. No significant convection is ongoing. For the forecast, high pressure over the region will begin to retreat eastward Sat evening in response to a cold front that will be approaching the Texas coast. The cold front will reach from the southeastern United States to the central Gulf and to the west- central Gulf Sun, then stall from S Florida to the central Gulf and to the west-centrtal Gulf from early next week into the mid-week. Low pressure may develop along the western part of the front during the weekend. Strong northeast winds are expected across portions of the northern and western Gulf behind the front along with rough seas. Moderate to fresh southeast winds will precede the front, except in the Straits of Florida, where locally strong east winds will prevail. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E to NE winds offshore Colombia, south of Hispaniola and also in the Windward Passage. Seas over these areas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Upper- level divergence is yielding scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the NW basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered near Bermuda and low pressure near Colombia will continue to support pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia, Cuba, Hispaniola, and through the Windward Passage into Sat. The high pressure will weaken some as it slides eastward this weekend allowing for the the gradient to slacken. This will lead to diminishing winds and subsiding seas. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue, maintaining fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure N of the area extends a ridge across the entire subtropical waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the offshores N of the Greater Antilles, including the southern and central Bahamas and the Windward Passage. Seas in this area are up to 11 ft. Over the far E Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 26N22W to 22N29W, which is tightening the gradient of pressure and supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 35W, including the Canary Islands. It is also now generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 20N and E of 32W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high pressure located well north of the area and relatively lower pressure to the south is allowing for generally strong northeast to east winds along with rough seas over much of the waters S of 26N. These conditions will gradually diminish through the weekend as the high weakens while shifting eastward. An inverted surface trough is forecast to develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic by Sun night allowing for winds to weaken further. A cold front is expected to emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Mon, then slowly move southeastward reaching from near 31N70W to South Florida by Tue morning. Strong to near gale-force winds northeast winds and seas building to a rough state are expected behind this front. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC031934CCA_C_KWBC_20260403193453_9109880-493-TWDAT.txt ****0000004562**** AXNT20 KNHC 031934 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Apr 3 2026 Corrected Gulf of America forecast Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W and continues to 01N42W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between 15W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... With high pressure centered NE of the basin, moderate to fresh SE winds dominate, along with seas of 3 to 6 ft. No significant convection is ongoing. For the forecast, high pressure over the region will begin to retreat eastward Sat evening in response to a cold front that will be approaching the Texas coast. The cold front will reach from the southeastern United States to the central Gulf and to the west- central Gulf Sun, then stall from S Florida to the central Gulf and to the west-central Gulf from early next week into the mid- week. Low pressure may develop along the western part of the front during the weekend. Strong northeast winds are expected across portions of the northern and western Gulf behind the front along with rough seas. Moderate to fresh southeast winds will precede the front, except in the Straits of Florida, where locally strong east winds will prevail. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E to NE winds offshore Colombia, south of Hispaniola and also in the Windward Passage. Seas over these areas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Upper- level divergence is yielding scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the NW basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered near Bermuda and low pressure near Colombia will continue to support pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia, Cuba, Hispaniola, and through the Windward Passage into Sat. The high pressure will weaken some as it slides eastward this weekend allowing for the the gradient to slacken. This will lead to diminishing winds and subsiding seas. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue, maintaining fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure N of the area extends a ridge across the entire subtropical waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the offshores N of the Greater Antilles, including the southern and central Bahamas and the Windward Passage. Seas in this area are up to 11 ft. Over the far E Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 26N22W to 22N29W, which is tightening the gradient of pressure and supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 35W, including the Canary Islands. It is also now generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 20N and E of 32W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high pressure located well north of the area and relatively lower pressure to the south is allowing for generally strong northeast to east winds along with rough seas over much of the waters S of 26N. These conditions will gradually diminish through the weekend as the high weakens while shifting eastward. An inverted surface trough is forecast to develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic by Sun night allowing for winds to weaken further. A cold front is expected to emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Mon, then slowly move southeastward reaching from near 31N70W to South Florida by Tue morning. Strong to near gale-force winds northeast winds and seas building to a rough state are expected behind this front. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC032023CCA_C_KWBC_20260403202354_9109880-495-TWDAT.txt ****0000004556**** AXNT20 KNHC 032023 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Apr 3 2026 Corrected Gulf of America forecast Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W and continues to 01N42W. Scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between 15W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... With high pressure centered NE of the basin, moderate to fresh SE winds dominate, along with seas of 3 to 6 ft. No significant convection is ongoing. For the forecast, high pressure over the region will begin to retreat eastward Sat evening in response to a cold front that will be approaching the Texas coast. The cold front will reach from the southeastern United States to the central Gulf and to the west- central Gulf Sun, then stall from S Florida to the central Gulf and to the west-central Gulf from early next week into the mid- week. Low pressure may develop along the western part of the front during the weekend. Strong northeast winds are expected across portions of the northern and western Gulf behind the front along with rough seas. Moderate to fresh southeast winds will precede the front, except in the Straits of Florida, where locally strong east winds will prevail. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E to NE winds offshore Colombia, south of Hispaniola and also in the Windward Passage. Seas over these areas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Upper- level divergence is yielding scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the NW basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered near Bermuda and low pressure near Colombia will continue to support pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia, Cuba, Hispaniola, and through the Windward Passage into Sat. The high pressure will weaken some as it slides eastward this weekend allowing for the the gradient to slacken. This will lead to diminishing winds and subsiding seas. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue, maintaining fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure N of the area extends a ridge across the entire subtropical waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the trough is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the offshores N of the Greater Antilles, including the southern and central Bahamas and the Windward Passage. Seas in this area are up to 11 ft. Over the far E Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 26N22W to 22N29W, which is tightening the gradient of pressure and supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 35W, including the Canary Islands. It is also now generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 20N and E of 32W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high pressure located well north of the area and relatively lower pressure to the south is allowing for generally strong northeast to east winds along with rough seas over much of the waters S of 26N. These conditions will gradually diminish through the weekend as the high weakens while shifting eastward. An inverted surface trough is forecast to develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic by Sun night allowing for winds to weaken further. A cold front is expected to emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Mon, then slowly move southeastward reaching from near 31N70W to South Florida by Tue morning. Strong to near gale-force northeast winds and seas building to a rough state are expected behind this front. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC032304_C_KWBC_20260403230457_9109880-502-TWDAT.txt ****0000006087**** AXNT20 KNHC 032304 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Apr 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to 03N34W, then resumes W of a surface trough located S of 10N along 35W/36W from 00N37W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 05W and 15W, and from 02N to 06N between 30W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. Under the influence of this system, scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong E to SE winds from 23N to 27N E of 87W, including the Straits of Florida. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds, occasionally higher in the Straits of Florida. Elsewhere moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail except offshore west Florida where seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are occurring over parts of the eastern Gulf and western Florida. For the forecast, high pressure over the region will begin to retreat eastward Sat evening in response to a cold front that will be approaching the Texas coast. The cold front will reach from the southeastern United States to the central Gulf and to the west-central Gulf Sun, then stall from S Florida to the central Gulf and to the west-centrtal Gulf from early next week into the mid-week. Low pressure may track from W to E along the frontal boundary at about mid-week. Strong northeast winds are expected across portions of the northern and western Gulf behind the front along with rough seas. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the Gulf, with the exception of NE part, will diminish on Sat, but continue at fresh speeds in the Straits of Florida through late Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia, south of Hispaniola, and also in the Windward Passage. Seas within these wind speeds are 8 to 9 ft offshore Colombia, based on altimeter data, and 6 to 8 ft elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail over the remainder of the basin. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean, including parts of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and Jamaica. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered near Bermuda and low pressure near Colombia will continue to support pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia, Cuba, Hispaniola, and through the Windward Passage into Sat. The high pressure will weaken some as it slides eastward this weekend allowing for the pressure gradient to slacken. This will lead to diminishing winds and subsiding seas. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue and drift westward toward the Bahamas. The pressure gradient between it and central Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1032 mb located N of the area near 34N65W extends a ridge across most of the Atlantic forecast waters producing a pretty tight pressure gradient N of 20N and W of 55W. As a result, scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong NE to E winds across the weaters N of the Greater Antilles, including the southern and central Bahamas and the Windward Passage. Seas in this area are up to 11 ft based on altimeter data. Over the far E Atlantic, a surface trough extends from a 1014 mb low pressure situated near 26N25W to 20N31W. These features are associated with an upper-level low which generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, more concentrated in the vicinity of 22N21W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are seen between the low center and a ridge that extends southward across the Madeira and Canary Islands. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high pressure located well north of the area and relatively lower pressure in the subtropics and tropics is allowing for generally strong northeast to east winds along with rough seas over much of the waters S of 26N. These conditions will gradually diminish through the weekend as the high weakens while shifting eastward. An inverted surface trough is forecast to develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic by Sun night allowing for winds to weaken. The trough will track in a general northwestward direction into mid-week. A cold front is expected to emerge off the southeastern United States coast early on Mon, then slowly move southeastward reaching from near 31N70W to South Florida by Tue morning and stall into mid-week. Low pressure may then develop along the trough at about mid-week as it merges with the frontal boundary and while high pressure builds southward N of the frontal boundary. The resulting tight pressure gradient will bring strong to near gale-force northeast winds along with seas building to a rough state behind this front starting early next week. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecast, especially beyond Mon night. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################