--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-01-31 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC310009_C_KWBC_20260131000926_12124482-5234-TWDAT.txt ****0000008302**** AXNT20 KNHC 310009 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Jan 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front curves southwestward from a 1018 mb low over southern Mississippi to south of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong N winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are seen behind the front. As the front pushes farther south and east later tonight, it will cause these winds to reach strong to gale- force off Veracruz, Mexico through early Saturday morning, along with seas peaking at 10 to 13 ft. The low will track eastward across the southeastern U.S. and merge with a complex low pressure off the South Carolina coast Sat and Sat night. This is expected to cause widespread strong to gale-force winds along with very cold temperatures across the eastern Gulf, including waters near the Florida Keys. Seas in this area will build to between 14 and 16 ft under the strongest winds. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts southeastward across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system will develop offshore the Carolina coast tonight into Sat morning. This system will send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters north of about 24N and just east of Florida Sat through Sun evening, before lifting north of the area Sun night. A Gale Watch is already in effect across the coastal waters of most of the Florida Peninsula, including the Florida Keys. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 knots with higher gusts are possible across the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida through Sunday afternoon. Wave heights could peak as high as 12 feet across the Gulf and Atlantic waters during the day on Sunday as well. The front is expected to reach from southeast of Bermuda to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from near 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters north and east of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these conditions. Of note: With the aforementioned cold front, a potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sun, Mon and Tue morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far south as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on both events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Liberia near Monrovia, then extends southwestward to 03N20W, where it transitions to an ITCZ and continues across 01N30W to near the Amazon Delta area. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and north of the ITCZ from 01N to 05N between 31W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning. A strong cold front curves southwestward from a 1018 mb low over southern Mississippi to south of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers are occurring up to 80 nm northwest and 120 nm southeast of the front. A surface trough ahead of the front is causing similar convection at the northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen behind the front. Gentle to moderate SW to NW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present at the northeastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for more information. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough runs south-southwestward from a 1013 mb low near the Cayman Islands to off the Nicaragua coast. These features are generating scattered showers from central Cuba southward across the Cayman Islands to the far southwestern basin. The leading edge of a trade-wind surge is also inducing similar weather at the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the south-central basin, and offshore waters of Nicaragua. Mainly moderate N to ENE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the eastern and northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate N to ENE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, an unusually strong cold front is forecast to move into the northwestern Caribbean Sat morning and then southeastward merging with the aforementioned surface trough. The cold front will reach from western Hispaniola to the northwest coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early Mon. Strong to near gale-force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section at the very beginning for a Gale Warning. A stationary front meanders southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N48W to just north of the Dominican Republic. Patchy rain are found near and up to 200 nm northwest of this boundary. A surface trough runs southward from a 1016 low off the Georgia/South Carolina coast at 31N73W to southeastern Florida. Scattered showers are occurring near the low across northern Florida. .Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NW to NE to SW winds and 5 to 9 ft seas in moderate to large NW swell are found behind the stationary front to the Florida coast. Gentle winds with 7 to 11 ft seas in large NW swell exist southeast of the front to 20N and 50W. Farther east, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE to SW winds and 8 to 10 ft in large NW swell are present. For the tropical Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident. Gentle NE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1029 mb high pressure centered west of the Canary Islands near 29N25W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the above mentioned stationary front is promoting fresh to strong southerly winds N of 28N and E of the front to about 40W. An area of fresh to strong NE winds is observed from 12N to 21N E of 30W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 9 to 12 ft within these winds. Large northerly swell continue to spread across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Seas of 8 to 12 ft dominate the forecast waters N of 25N and E of 60W. Rough to very rough seas are reaching the Madeira and Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features section for more information. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC310010_C_KWBC_20260131001042_25559334-1583-TWDAT.txt ****0000007460**** AXNT20 KNHC 310010 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Jan 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front curves southwestward from a 1018 mb low over southern Mississippi to south of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong N winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are seen behind the front. As the front pushes farther south and east later tonight, it will cause these winds to reach strong to gale- force off Veracruz, Mexico through early Saturday morning, along with seas peaking at 10 to 13 ft. The low will track eastward across the southeastern U.S. and merge with a complex low pressure off the South Carolina coast Sat and Sat night. This is expected to cause widespread strong to gale-force winds along with very cold temperatures across the eastern Gulf, including waters near the Florida Keys. Seas in this area will build to between 14 and 16 ft under the strongest winds. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from west to east across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts southeastward across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system will develop offshore the Carolina coast tonight into Sat morning. This system will send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area of westerly gale-force winds covering the local waters north of about 24N and just east of Florida Sat through Sun evening, before lifting north of the area Sun night. A Gale Watch is already in effect across the coastal waters of most of the Florida Peninsula, including the Florida Keys. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 knots with higher gusts are possible across the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida through Sunday afternoon. Wave heights could peak as high as 12 feet across the Gulf and Atlantic waters during the day on Sunday as well. The front is expected to reach from southeast of Bermuda to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from near 27N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the front, large long-period NW swell will impact the waters north and east of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these conditions. Of note: With the aforementioned cold front, a potentially record breaking cold snap is possible late weekend into early next week in South Florida. Near freezing to sub-freezing low temperatures are possible for a large area of South Florida early Sun, Mon and Tue morning. Lows in the 30s could reach as far south as Miami Dade County with wind chills in the 20s across all of South Florida. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on both events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Liberia near Monrovia, then extends southwestward to 03N20W, where it transitions to an ITCZ and continues across 01N30W to near the Amazon Delta area. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and north of the ITCZ from 01N to 05N between 31W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning. A strong cold front curves southwestward from a 1018 mb low over southern Mississippi to south of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered showers are occurring up to 80 nm northwest and 120 nm southeast of the front. A surface trough ahead of the front is causing similar convection at the northeastern Gulf. Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are seen behind the front. Gentle to moderate SW to NW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present at the northeastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for more information. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough runs south-southwestward from a 1013 mb low near the Cayman Islands to off the Nicaragua coast. These features are generating scattered showers from central Cuba southward across the Cayman Islands to the far southwestern basin. The leading edge of a trade-wind surge is also inducing similar weather at the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted at the south-central basin, and offshore waters of Nicaragua. Mainly moderate N to ENE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the eastern and northwestern basin. Gentle to moderate N to ENE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, an unusually strong cold front is forecast to move into the northwestern Caribbean Sat morning and then southeastward merging with the aforementioned surface trough. The cold front will reach from western Hispaniola to the northwest coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early Mon. Strong to near gale-force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section at the very beginning for a Gale Warning. A stationary front meanders southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N48W to just north of the Dominican Republic. Patchy rain are found near and up to 200 nm northwest of this boundary. A surface trough runs southward from a 1016 low off the Georgia/South Carolina coast at 31N73W to southeastern Florida. Scattered showers are occurring near the low across northern Florida. .Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NW to NE to SW winds and 5 to 9 ft seas in moderate to large NW swell are found behind the stationary front to the Florida coast. Gentle winds with 7 to 11 ft seas in large NW swell exist southeast of the front to 20N and 50W. Farther east, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE to SW winds and 8 to 10 ft in large NW swell are present. For the tropical Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident. Gentle NE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features section for more information. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC310439_C_KWBC_20260131043943_25559334-1595-TWDAT.txt ****0000006101**** AXNT20 KNHC 310439 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Jan 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0435 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from low pressure over central Georgia southwestward to Apalachicola, Florida and continues to 26N89W and to just southeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to near gale-force NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it quickly moves across the area, exiting the basin Sat afternoon. The low pressure will track NE while rapidly intensifying off the Carolina coast on Sat as another blast of arctic air surges across the Gulf support winds to gale force near Veracruz from late tonight into early on Sat, and across the eastern Gulf Sat through late Sat night, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Gale force winds may briefly gusts to storm force over the NE Gulf. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts eastward across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system will develop just NW of the forecast area. This system will send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area of westerly strong gale force winds and rapidly rising seas covering the waters N of about 24N and west of 60W Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. Occasional gusts to storm force will be possible with these winds. The front is expected to reach from near 31N71W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from near 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from near 26N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the front, large long period NW swell will impact the waters N and E of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. High pressure will shift E roughly along 29N next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these upcoming rapidly changing conditions. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on both events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 01N35W and to 01S45W. No significant convection is evident near these boundaries. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning in the SW and Eastern Gulf waters. Ahead of the cold front described in the Special Features section, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Wed and reach from the Florida panhandle to the western Gulf by late Wed.. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from a 1013 mb low pres just south of central Cuba to just north of western Panama. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are found behind the trough to 84W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh eastern winds and moderate seas are occurring in the south-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, an unusually strong cold front is forecast to move into the northwestern Caribbean Sat morning, then over southeastward merging with the trough. The cold front will reach from western Hispaniola to the northwest coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early Mon. Strong to near gale-force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front. By early Tue, fresh to strong N to NW winds will over just about the entire basin W of a line from the Virgin Islands to NE Colombia along with seas to near 12 ft. These winds and seas diminish slightly in coverage on Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning in the W Atlantic. The pressure gradient is tightening in the western waters of the tropical Atlantic due to an approaching cold front, currently over the Gulf of America, and a couple of surface troughs ahead of this boundary. Moderate to locally strong E-SE winds are found between 65W and 76W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Farther east, a dissipating stationary front extends from 31N43W to the SE Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas are found ahead of this boundary to 35W and north of 27N. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1025 mb high pressure system near 30N26W. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and rough seas are found south of a line from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands. Meanwhile, NW swell is producing rough seas north of the aforementioned line and east of 35W and also north of the dissipating stationary front and east of 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features section for more information. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC310637CCA_C_KWBC_20260131063829_12124482-5259-TWDAT.txt ****0000006180**** AXNT20 KNHC 310637 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Jan 31 2026 Corrected Special Features for Gulf of America Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0435 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from low pressure over central Georgia southwestward to Apalachicola, Florida and continues to 26N89W and to just southeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to near gale-force NW to N winds and building seas will follow the front as it quickly moves across the area, exiting the basin Sat afternoon. The low pressure will track NE while rapidly intensifying off the Carolina coast on Sat as another blast of arctic air surges across the Gulf support winds to gale force near Veracruz from late tonight into early on Sat, and across the eastern Gulf through late Sat night, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Gale force winds may briefly gusts to storm force over the NE Gulf. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts eastward across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Atlantic Gale Warning: A complex low pressure system will develop just NW of the forecast area. This system will send an unusually strong and powerful arctic cold front off the northeast Florida coast Sat morning. The associated complex low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic Sat through Sun, becoming quite powerful and inducing a very large area of westerly strong gale force winds and rapidly rising seas covering the waters N of about 24N and west of 60W Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. Occasional gusts to storm force will be possible with these winds. The front is expected to reach from near 31N71W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, from near 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from near 26N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the front, large long period NW swell will impact the waters N and E of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. High pressure will shift E roughly along 29N next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for Sat and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these upcoming rapidly changing conditions. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on both events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 01N35W and to 01S45W. No significant convection is evident near these boundaries. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning in the SW and Eastern Gulf waters. Ahead of the cold front described in the Special Features section, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Wed and reach from the Florida panhandle to the western Gulf by late Wed.. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from a 1013 mb low pres just south of central Cuba to just north of western Panama. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are found behind the trough to 84W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh eastern winds and moderate seas are occurring in the south-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, an unusually strong cold front is forecast to move into the northwestern Caribbean Sat morning, then over southeastward merging with the trough. The cold front will reach from western Hispaniola to the northwest coast of Colombia Sun evening, then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early Mon. Strong to near gale-force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front. By early Tue, fresh to strong N to NW winds will over just about the entire basin W of a line from the Virgin Islands to NE Colombia along with seas to near 12 ft. These winds and seas diminish slightly in coverage on Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning in the W Atlantic. The pressure gradient is tightening in the western waters of the tropical Atlantic due to an approaching cold front, currently over the Gulf of America, and a couple of surface troughs ahead of this boundary. Moderate to locally strong E-SE winds are found between 65W and 76W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Farther east, a dissipating stationary front extends from 31N43W to the SE Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas are found ahead of this boundary to 35W and north of 27N. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1025 mb high pressure system near 30N26W. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and rough seas are found south of a line from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands. Meanwhile, NW swell is producing rough seas north of the aforementioned line and east of 35W and also north of the dissipating stationary front and east of 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features section for more information. $$ Delgado/Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC311050_C_KWBC_20260131105030_12124482-5271-TWDAT.txt ****0000007355**** AXNT20 KNHC 311050 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Jan 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from low pressure over NE Georgia southwestward to the Big Bend of Florida, and continues to 25N87W and to inland Mexico near 19N95W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are in the wake of the front as it quickly moves southeastward across the area. It will exit the basin by early this afternoon. The low pressure will track NE while rapidly intensifying off the Carolina coast through tonight as another blast of arctic air surges across the Gulf sustaining gale force winds offshore Veracruz into early this morning, and across the eastern Gulf through late late tonight, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Gale force winds may briefly gusts to storm force over the NE Gulf. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts eastward across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1011 mb is just N of the area near 31N76W. The low will slowly track NE offshore the Carolina coast through tonight while expanding and rapidly intensifying. The low will part of complex low pressure system with a mean center as it tracks to the NE. A strong arctic cold front associated with this system is currently moving through the eastern Gulf of America. It will cross Florida today and sweep across the western Atlantic through late Sun. In its wake, a very large area of westerly strong gale force winds and rapidly rising seas will cover the waters N of about 24N and west of 60W Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. Gusts to storm force will be possible with these winds. The front is expected to reach from near 31N71W to eastern Cuba this evening, from near 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from near 26N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the front, large long period NW swell will impact the waters N and E of the Bahamas from late Sat through early next week. High pressure will shift E roughly along 29N next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for today and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these upcoming rapidly changing conditions. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on both events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 02N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W and to just inland the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-34W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 19W-25W. Similar activity is to the southeast of the trough within 30 nm of line from 03N12W to 01N19W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning in the SW Gulf soon to end and for anoyher Gale Warning for the eastern Gulf. East of the cold front described in the Special Features section, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Wed and reach from the Florida panhandle to the western Gulf by late Wed.. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the central Bahamas southward across central Cuba, to a weak 1013 mb low just south of Cuba at 21.5N79W. The trough continues to 10N82W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are west of the trough to near 84.5W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh eastern winds and moderate seas are occurring in the south-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, an unusually strong cold front that is currently moving through the eastern and central Gulf of America will move into the northwestern Caribbean this morning overtaking the trough. The cold front will reach from the vicinity of the Windward Passage to 15N76W and to Panama late tonight, and from Puerto Rico to NE Colombia by Sun evening. It will then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early Mon. Strong to near gale force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front. By early Tue, fresh to strong N to NW winds will over just about the entire basin roughly west of a line from the Virgin Islands to NE Colombia along with seas to near 12 ft. These winds and seas diminish slightly in coverage on Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning for the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient is tightening in the western waters of the tropical Atlantic due to an approaching cold front that is currently moving through the eastern Gulf of America. Scattered moderate convection is seen east of the Bahamas from 23N to 28N between 71W and 75W. This activity is being sustained by an upper- level disturbance riding along a subtropical jetstream branch that passes over that part of the area. A surface trough extends from near 28N76W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba. Moderate to locally strong east to southeast winds are between 65W and 76W as depicted in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass. Seas over these waters are about 6 to 8 ft. Farther east, a frontal trough extends from near 31N45W to 25N54W, and another trough extends from near 31N52W to 27N62W, and yet another trough is analyzed from 24N61W to just north of the north- central Dominican Republic. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are east of the first trough to near 37W and north of about 27.5N. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell within the area of these winds. Isolated showers are possible near these troughs. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1025 mb high that is near 29N27W. Moderate to fresh trades and rough seas are found south of a line from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands. Meanwhile, NW swell is producing rough seas north of the aforementioned line and east of 35W and also north of the dissipating stationary front and east of 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features section for more information. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC311053_C_KWBC_20260131105430_12124482-5272-TWDAT.txt ****0000007362**** AXNT20 KNHC 311053 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Jan 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from low pressure over NE Georgia southwestward to the Big Bend of Florida, and continues to 25N87W and to inland Mexico near 19N95W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are in the wake of the front as it quickly moves southeastward across the area. It will exit the basin by early this afternoon. The low pressure will track NE while rapidly intensifying off the Carolina coast through tonight as another blast of arctic air surges across the Gulf sustaining gale force winds offshore Veracruz into early this morning, and across the eastern Gulf through late late tonight, with rough to very rough seas across the basin. Gale force winds may briefly gusts to storm force over the NE Gulf. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish from W to E across the Gulf Sun through Mon as high pressure shifts eastward across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1011 mb is just N of the area near 31N76W. The low will slowly track NE offshore the Carolina coast through tonight while expanding and rapidly intensifying. The low will part of complex low pressure system with a mean center as it tracks to the NE. A strong arctic cold front associated with this system is currently moving through the eastern Gulf of America. It will cross Florida today and sweep across the western Atlantic through late Sun. In its wake, a very large area of westerly strong gale force winds and rapidly rising seas will cover the waters N of about 24N and west of 60W Sat through Sun evening, before lifting N of the area Sun night. Gusts to storm force will be possible with these winds. The front is expected to reach from near 31N71W to eastern Cuba this evening, from near 31N60W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening, then begin to weaken and stall from near 26N55W to eastern Puerto Rico Mon evening. In the wake of the front, large long period NW swell will impact the waters N and E of the Bahamas from this evening through early next week. High pressure will shift E roughly along 29N next week. Mariners should monitor the forecasts for today and beyond, and prepare to execute avoidance plans from these upcoming rapidly changing conditions. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on both events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 02N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N30W and to just inland the coast of Brazil near 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-34W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 19W-25W. Similar activity is to the southeast of the trough within 30 nm of line from 03N12W to 01N19W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning in the SW Gulf soon to end and for anoyher Gale Warning for the eastern Gulf. East of the cold front described in the Special Features section, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Wed and reach from the Florida panhandle to the western Gulf by late Wed.. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the central Bahamas southward across central Cuba, to a weak 1013 mb low just south of Cuba at 21.5N79W. The trough continues to 10N82W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are west of the trough to near 84.5W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh eastern winds and moderate seas are occurring in the south-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, an unusually strong cold front that is currently moving through the eastern and central Gulf of America will move into the northwestern Caribbean this morning overtaking the trough. The cold front will reach from the vicinity of the Windward Passage to 15N76W and to Panama late tonight, and from Puerto Rico to NE Colombia by Sun evening. It will then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to northwest Venezuela by early Mon. Strong to near gale force N winds and rough seas are expected behind this front. By early Tue, fresh to strong N to NW winds will over just about the entire basin roughly west of a line from the Virgin Islands to NE Colombia along with seas to near 12 ft. These winds and seas diminish slightly in coverage on Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning for the western Atlantic. The pressure gradient is tightening in the western waters of the tropical Atlantic due to an approaching cold front that is currently moving through the eastern Gulf of America. Scattered moderate convection is seen east of the Bahamas from 23N to 28N between 71W and 75W. This activity is being sustained by an upper- level disturbance riding along a subtropical jetstream branch that passes over that part of the area. A surface trough extends from near 28N76W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba. Moderate to locally strong east to southeast winds are between 65W and 76W as depicted in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass. Seas over these waters are about 6 to 8 ft. Farther east, a frontal trough extends from near 31N45W to 25N54W, and another trough extends from near 31N52W to 27N62W, and yet another trough is analyzed from 24N61W to just north of the north- central Dominican Republic. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are east of the first trough to near 37W and north of about 27.5N. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in NW swell within the area of these winds. Isolated showers are possible near these troughs. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1025 mb high that is near 29N27W. Moderate to fresh trades and rough seas are found south of a line from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands. Meanwhile, NW swell is producing rough seas north of the aforementioned line and east of 35W and also north of the dissipating stationary front and east of 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, please, see the Special Features section for more information. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################