--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC080433_C_KWBC_20260708043428_32440682-4725-TWDAT.txt ****0000006579**** AXNT20 KNHC 080433 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jul 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will continue to result in fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds should pulse to gale-force just north of Colombia tonight before diminishing to just below gale-force Wed. These winds will again pulse back up gale-force at night over these same waters through the rest of period, except on Thu and Sun. Gale-force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 14N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 12N and between 20W and 35W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 13N and between 47W and 55W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the trough axis. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave along 83W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the trough axis and nearby Nicaragua and Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N27W. The ITCZ extends from 09N29W to 08N49W, then continues from 08N51W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 09N and east of 18W. Similar convection is found from 06N to 10N and between 35W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper level low over the NW Gulf is enhancing showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the basin south of 26N, with the strongest convection occurring in the Bay of Campeche. A 1020 mb high pressure over the eastern Gulf results in moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure extending westward across the basin from the Atlantic will change little through Thu night, then shift northward to near the northern Gulf coast Fri through Sat night. The related pressure gradient will generally maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the Gulf south of about 26N, and light to gentle southeast to south winds north of about 26N, except for fresh to strong northeast to east winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night due to the diurnal trough that moves westward from the Yucatan peninsula. A mid to upper-level low acting on a very unstable and moisture-laden atmosphere will continue to result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over mostly the SW Gulf, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere across the basin south of about 28N. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning. Divergence aloft is supporting a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and the western Greater Antilles. A strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic continues to dominate the Caribbean. Outside of the Gale Warning area, strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas are found across the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the area along with lower pressure over N South America will produce fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds should reach gales just north of Colombia tonight before slightly diminishing tomorrow. Additionally, trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong late afternoons and evenings through the weekend. A vigorous tropical wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Wed evening, bringing fresh to strong trades over the E Caribbean on Thu and Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive subtropical ridge extends across the tropical Atlantic along 27N, anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure system near 27N43W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in strong easterly trade winds and rough seas south of 23N and between 70W and 75W. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 24N and east of 45W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to a line from 30N20W to 24N45W and east of 45W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. A weak front north of our area and divergence aloft sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 27N and between 40W and 70W. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging near 27N will change little through Thu, then shift slightly north afterward. The associated gradient will continue to support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will exist. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the weekend. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC080607_C_KWBC_20260708060829_32440682-4736-TWDAT.txt ****0000006582**** AXNT20 KNHC 080607 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jul 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will continue to result in fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds should pulse to gale-force just north of Colombia tonight before diminishing to just below gale-force Wed. These winds will again pulse back up gale-force at night over these same waters through the rest of period, except on Thu and Sun. Gale-force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 14N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 12N and between 20W and 35W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 13N and between 47W and 55W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the trough axis. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave along 83W, south of 20N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the trough axis and nearby Nicaragua and Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 09N27W. The ITCZ extends from 09N29W to 08N49W, then continues from 08N51W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident from 05N to 09N and east of 18W. Similar convection is found from 06N to 10N and between 35W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper level low over the NW Gulf is enhancing showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the basin south of 26N, with the strongest convection occurring in the Bay of Campeche. A 1020 mb high pressure over the eastern Gulf results in moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure extending westward across the basin from the Atlantic will change little through Thu night, then shift northward to near the northern Gulf coast Fri through Sat night. The related pressure gradient will generally maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the Gulf south of about 26N, and light to gentle southeast to south winds north of about 26N, except for fresh to strong northeast to east winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night due to the diurnal trough that moves westward from the Yucatan peninsula. A mid to upper-level low acting on a very unstable and moisture-laden atmosphere will continue to result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over mostly the SW Gulf, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere across the basin south of about 28N. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning. Divergence aloft is supporting a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Caribbean and the western Greater Antilles. A strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic continues to dominate the Caribbean. Outside of the Gale Warning area, strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas are found across the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are present in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north of the area along with lower pressure over N South America will produce fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds should reach gales just north of Colombia tonight before slightly diminishing tomorrow. Additionally, trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong late afternoons and evenings through the weekend. A vigorous tropical wave should reach the Lesser Antilles Wed evening, bringing fresh to strong trades over the E Caribbean on Thu and Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive subtropical ridge extends across the tropical Atlantic along 27N, anchored by a 1027 mb high pressure system near 27N43W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in strong easterly trade winds and rough seas south of 23N and between 70W and 75W. Fresh to locally strong easterly breezes and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 24N and east of 45W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to a line from 30N20W to 24N45W and east of 45W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. A weak front north of our area and divergence aloft sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 27N and between 40W and 70W. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging near 27N will change little through Thu, then shift slightly north afterward. The associated gradient will continue to support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will exist. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the weekend. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC081105_C_KWBC_20260708110551_9109880-7794-TWDAT.txt ****0000008221**** AXNT20 KNHC 081105 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Jul 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will continue to result in fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds should pulse to gale-force just north of Colombia tonight before diminishing to just below gale-force Wed. These winds will again pulse back up gale-force at night over these same waters through the rest of period, except on Thu and Sun. Seas are expected to peak around 13 ft. Gale-force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W from 03N to 16N, and is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the axis from 07N to 09N, and within 120 nm west of the wave from 06N to 08N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of 17N, and is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are within 60 nm west of the axis from 08N to 10N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W south of 19N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Only a few weak showers are near the axis from 12N to 15N. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W south of 19N. It is moving westward at an estimated motion of 10 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are along the axis from 15N to 17N, and extend westward to inland the coast of northeast Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 11N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N28.5W. It resumes at 08N30W and continues to 07N40W and to 07N52W. A small ITCZ segment extends from 07N53W to the coast of South America at 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 34W and 39W. Similar convection is well south of the trough from 07N to 10N between the coast of Africa and 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1020 mb high is analyzed over the eastern Gulf near 27N87W. This high is along the western extension of a broad Atlantic ridge axis that extends westward across south-central Florida and across the basin. The related gradient is generally allowing for light to gentle southeast to south winds north of 26N and for gentle to moderate easterly winds south of 26N, except for mostly moderate winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are of slight state, except for moderate state seas in the Bay of Campeche. Meanwhile, an upper-level low and mid-level trough over the NW Gulf is acting on a very unstable and moisture-laden atmosphere. This has lead to the development of scattered showers and numerous thunderstorms over much of the west-central and southwestern portions of the basin, south of about 25N and west of 93W. For the forecast, the high pressure ridge across the basin will change little through Thu night, then shift northward to near the northern Gulf coast Fri through Sat night. Little overall changes are expected with the winds and seas. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are expected offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night due to the diurnal trough that moves westward from the Yucatan peninsula. The shower and thunderstorm activity over the west- central and southwestern Gulf is expected to perhaps last through Thu, or possibly a little longer. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions offshore Colombia. The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America is bringing fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean. Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong east winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the Gulf of Honduras while fresh to strong northeast winds are funneling into the Windward Passage. Seas there are also 4 to 6 ft, except 6 to 8 ft in the Atlantic entrance to the passage. Elsewhere, mostly fresh trades are over the basin south of 18N east of 84W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft between 67W and 84W, and 5 to 7 ft east of 67W. The southern portion of an upper-level trough extends from the central Gulf of America to the northwestern Caribbean. Upper divergence to its is helping to sustain isolated showers and thunderstorms over this part of the sea, and the same for similar activity that is along the coast of Honduras, and just offshore that coast between 85W and 87W, and for the activity that is along the southern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will continue to result in fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds to gale- force just north of Colombia will diminish to just below gale- force this morning. These winds will again pulse back up gale- force at night over these same waters through the rest of the period, except on Thu and Sun. Gale-force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through the weekend. A fast-moving tropical wave should reach the Lesser Antilles this evening, bringing fresh to strong trades over the eastern Caribbean Thu through Fri night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may accompany this wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive subtropical ridge axis extends across the tropical Atlantic roughly along 27N, anchored by a 1027 mb high center at 26N44W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is producing fresh to strong trades south of about 23N and between 70W and 75W as noted in overnight scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are with these trades. Farther east, fresh to locally strong trades are southeast of a line from 28N19W to 22N40W to 22N50W to 22N65W to 23N70W, except southeast of the line east of 31W where light to gentle southerly to variable winds are present Seas are 6 to 8 ft over these waters, except 4 to 6 ft southeast of the aforementioned line east of 31W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of about 4 to 6 ft remain. A weak trough is analyzed from 30N49W to 32N61W. Isolated weak showers are near the trough. A cold front extends from 32N45W to 33N54W. Earlier scattered moderate convection noted to the south of this boundary has significantly weakened. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge axis along 27N will change little through Thu, then shift slightly north afterward. The associated gradient will continue to support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will exist. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the weekend. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC081106_C_KWBC_20260708110631_32440682-4751-TWDAT.txt ****0000008222**** AXNT20 KNHC 081106 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Jul 08 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will continue to result in fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds should pulse to gale-force just north of Colombia tonight before diminishing to just below gale-force Wed. These winds will again pulse back up gale-force at night over these same waters through the rest of period, except on Thu and Sun. Seas are expected to peak around 13 ft. Gale-force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W from 03N to 16N, and is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the axis from 07N to 09N, and within 120 nm west of the wave from 06N to 08N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of 17N, and is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are within 60 nm west of the axis from 08N to 10N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W south of 19N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Only a few weak showers are near the axis from 12N to 15N. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W south of 19N. It is moving westward at an estimated motion of 10 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are along the axis from 15N to 17N, and extend westward to inland the coast of northeast Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 11N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N28.5W. It resumes at 08N30W and continues to 07N40W and to 07N52W. A small ITCZ segment extends from 07N53W to the coast of South America at 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 34W and 39W. Similar convection is well south of the trough from 07N to 10N between the coast of Africa and 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1020 mb high is analyzed over the eastern Gulf near 27N87W. This high is along the western extension of a broad Atlantic ridge axis that extends westward across south-central Florida and across the basin. The related gradient is generally allowing for light to gentle southeast to south winds north of 26N and for gentle to moderate easterly winds south of 26N, except for mostly moderate winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are of slight state, except for moderate state seas in the Bay of Campeche. Meanwhile, an upper-level low and mid-level trough over the NW Gulf is acting on a very unstable and moisture-laden atmosphere. This has lead to the development of scattered showers and numerous thunderstorms over much of the west-central and southwestern portions of the basin, south of about 25N and west of 93W. For the forecast, the high pressure ridge across the basin will change little through Thu night, then shift northward to near the northern Gulf coast Fri through Sat night. Little overall changes are expected with the winds and seas. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are expected offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night due to the diurnal trough that moves westward from the Yucatan peninsula. The shower and thunderstorm activity over the west- central and southwestern Gulf is expected to perhaps last through Thu, or possibly a little longer. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions offshore Colombia. The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America is bringing fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean. Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong east winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the Gulf of Honduras while fresh to strong northeast winds are funneling into the Windward Passage. Seas there are also 4 to 6 ft, except 6 to 8 ft in the Atlantic entrance to the passage. Elsewhere, mostly fresh trades are over the basin south of 18N east of 84W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft between 67W and 84W, and 5 to 7 ft east of 67W. The southern portion of an upper-level trough extends from the central Gulf of America to the northwestern Caribbean. Upper divergence to its is helping to sustain isolated showers and thunderstorms over this part of the sea, and the same for similar activity that is along the coast of Honduras, and just offshore that coast between 85W and 87W, and for the activity that is along the southern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will continue to result in fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds to gale- force just north of Colombia will diminish to just below gale- force this morning. These winds will again pulse back up gale- force at night over these same waters through the rest of the period, except on Thu and Sun. Gale-force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through the weekend. A fast-moving tropical wave should reach the Lesser Antilles this evening, bringing fresh to strong trades over the eastern Caribbean Thu through Fri night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may accompany this wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive subtropical ridge axis extends across the tropical Atlantic roughly along 27N, anchored by a 1027 mb high center at 26N44W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is producing fresh to strong trades south of about 23N and between 70W and 75W as noted in overnight scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are with these trades. Farther east, fresh to locally strong trades are southeast of a line from 28N19W to 22N40W to 22N50W to 22N65W to 23N70W, except southeast of the line east of 31W where light to gentle southerly to variable winds are present Seas are 6 to 8 ft over these waters, except 4 to 6 ft southeast of the aforementioned line east of 31W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of about 4 to 6 ft remain. A weak trough is analyzed from 30N49W to 32N61W. Isolated weak showers are near the trough. A cold front extends from 32N45W to 33N54W. Earlier scattered moderate convection noted to the south of this boundary has significantly weakened. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge axis along 27N will change little through Thu, then shift slightly north afterward. The associated gradient will continue to support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will exist. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the weekend. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC081117_C_KWBC_20260708111751_9109880-7795-TWDAT.txt ****0000008111**** AXNT20 KNHC 081117 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Jul 08 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America will continue to result in fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds should pulse to gale-force just north of Colombia tonight before diminishing to just below gale-force Wed. These winds will again pulse back up gale-force at night over these same waters through the rest of period, except on Thu and Sun. Seas are expected to peak around 13 ft. Gale-force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W from 03N to 16N, and is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the axis from 07N to 09N, and within 120 nm west of the wave from 06N to 08N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of 17N, and is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are within 60 nm west of the axis from 08N to 10N. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W south of 19N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Only a few weak showers are near the axis from 12N to 15N. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W south of 19N. It is moving westward at an estimated motion of 10 kt. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are along the axis from 15N to 17N, and extend westward to inland the coast of northeast Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 11N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N28.5W. It resumes at 08N30W and continues to 07N40W and to 07N52W. A small ITCZ segment extends from 07N53W to the coast of South America at 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm either side of the ITCZ between 34W and 39W. Similar convection is well south of the trough from 07N to 10N between the coast of Africa and 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1020 mb high is analyzed over the eastern Gulf near 27N87W. This high is along the western extension of a broad Atlantic ridge axis that extends westward across south-central Florida and across the central Gulf. The associated pressure gradient is generally allowing for light to gentle southeast to south winds north of 26N and for gentle to moderate easterly winds south of 26N, except for mostly moderate winds in the Bay of Campeche. Seas are of slight state, except for moderate state seas in the Bay of Campeche. Meanwhile, an upper-level low and mid-level trough over the NW Gulf is acting on a very unstable and moisture-laden atmosphere. This has lead to the development of scattered showers and numerous thunderstorms over much of the west-central and southwestern portions of the basin, south of about 25N and west of 93W. For the forecast, the high pressure ridge across the basin will change little through Thu night, then shift northward to near the northern Gulf coast Fri through Sat night. Little overall changes are expected with the winds and seas. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are expected offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night due to the diurnal trough that moves westward from the Yucatan peninsula. The shower and thunderstorm activity over the west- central and southwestern Gulf is expected to perhaps last through Thu, or possibly a little longer. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on gale conditions offshore Colombia. The pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures over northern South America is bringing fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean. Seas with these winds are 8 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong east winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the Gulf of Honduras while fresh to strong northeast winds are funneling into the Windward Passage. Seas there are also 4 to 6 ft, except 6 to 8 ft in the Atlantic entrance to the passage. Elsewhere, mostly fresh trades are over the basin south of 18N east of 84W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft between 67W and 84W, and 5 to 7 ft east of 67W. The southern portion of an upper-level trough extends from the central Gulf of America to the northwestern Caribbean. Upper divergence to its east is helping to sustain isolated showers and thunderstorms over this part of the sea, and the same for similar activity that is along the coast of Honduras and just offshore that coast between 85W and 87W, and likewise for the activity that is along the southern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between central Atlantic high pressure and lower pressures in northern South America will continue to result in fresh to near gale trades over the central Caribbean for the next several days. Peak winds to gale- force just north of Colombia will diminish to just below gale- force this morning. These winds will again pulse back up gale- force at night over these same waters through the rest of the period, except on Thu and Sun. Gale-force winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela Fri night and Sat night. Trades over the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the late afternoons and evenings through the weekend. A fast-moving tropical wave should reach the Lesser Antilles this evening, bringing fresh to strong trades over the eastern Caribbean Thu through Fri night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may accompany this wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive subtropical ridge axis is roughly along 27N, anchored by a 1027 mb high center at 26N44W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is producing fresh to strong trades south of about 23N and between 70W and 75W as noted in overnight scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are with these trades. Farther east, fresh to locally strong trades are southeast of a line from 28N19W to 22N40W to 22N50W to 22N65W to 23N70W, except southeast of the line east of 31W where light to gentle southerly to variable winds are present Seas are 6 to 8 ft over these waters, except 4 to 6 ft southeast of the aforementioned line east of 31W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of about 4 to 6 ft remain. A weak trough is analyzed from 30N49W to 32N61W. Isolated weak showers are near the trough. A cold front extends from 32N45W to 33N54W. Earlier scattered moderate convection noted to the south of this boundary has significantly weakened. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge axis along 27N will change little through Thu, then shift slightly north afterward. The associated gradient will continue to support moderate to fresh trades south of 23N, and light to gentle winds north of 23N, except north of 29N where moderate to fresh south to southwest winds will exist. Strong winds along with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the weekend. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################