--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC060415_C_KWBC_20260906041547_38011292-1677-TWDAT.txt ****0000004622**** AXNT20 KNHC 060415 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 21W, south of 20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No convection is noted with this feature at this time. A tropical wave is along 36N, south of 20N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis and S of 15N. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 67W, south of 20N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are near the northern end of the wave axis mainly between 56W and 69W. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 78W, and extends from eastern Cuba to near western Colombia. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 09N25W, then westward to near 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N42W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Convection is limited across the area. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf region, anchored by a weak 1014 mb high pressure centered near 26N86W. Light to gentle winds prevail across most of the basin, except gentle to moderate winds over the Bay of Campeche likely due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over south-central Florida and in the western Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters into late next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low is maintaining fresh to locally strong trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Similar wind speeds and moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. A tropical wave over Puerto Rico is supporting some convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms have developed over parts of Cuba, more concentrated in the central portion of the island. Similar convection is also affecting the Cayman Islands. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. This gradient will tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader area of strong, locally near-gale force, winds and rough seas, early next week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 28N71W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scatterometer data indicate the wind shift related to the trough axis. This feature is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a ridge, with the main center of 1026 mb located midway between the Azores and the Madeira Islands. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures over NW Africa is promoting fresh to strong N to NE winds N of 18N and E of 21W, including the Canary Islands. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range with these winds. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere, except just offshore Hispaniola where moderate to fresh winds are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will generally prevail across the area into the middle of next week, producing a weak pressure gradient. This will support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. A weak cold front will approach the northern waters then stall along 31N for the first part of week. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC060830_C_KWBC_20260906083048_38011292-1693-TWDAT.txt ****0000004382**** AXNT20 KNHC 060830 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W, south of 20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 22W and 25W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 37N, south of 20N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis and S of 15N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W, south of 20N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are near the northern end of the wave axis mainly between 65W and 70W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W, and extends from central Cuba southward into the far eastern Pacific. No significant convection is noted in the Caribbean waters with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N28W, then westward to near 07N43W. The ITCZ continues from 07N43W to near 08N58W. Convection is limited across the area, aside from the areas noted in the tropical waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails across the Gulf region, anchored by a 1014 mb high pressure centered near 26N87W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SW Gulf. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Slight seas dominate the forecast waters. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters into late next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate seas offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. The pressure gradient will tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader area of strong, locally near-gale force, winds and rough seas, early next week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A pair of surface troughs are over the far western Atlantic waters. One off the coast of Florida, and the other surface trough extends from 26N71W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. These feature are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of high pressure, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 25N54W. Light to gentle winds prevail near the high center, as well as along the ridge extending from the high along 26N. A stronger area of high pressure, 1025 mb, is centered north of the area near 35N22W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure, and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds N of the monsoon trough and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate winds prevail. Seas across the forecast area are in the moderate range. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will generally prevail across the area into the middle of next week, producing a weak pressure gradient. The weak pressure gradient will support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. A weak cold front will approach the northern waters then stall along 31N for the first part of next week. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC061602_C_KWBC_20260906160251_38011292-1728-TWDAT.txt ****0000004725**** AXNT20 KNHC 061602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 24W, south of 20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 12.5N between the wave axis and 27W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 39N, south of 20N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered convection is along the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 69.5W, south of 19N, moving W at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 16N to 21N between 63W and 70W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W, and extends from central Cuba southward into the far eastern Pacific. The wave is moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted in the Caribbean waters with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19.5N16.5W and continues southwestward to 06.5N27W, then westward to near 07N37W. The ITCZ continues from 07N37W to near 07N54W. Convection is limited across the area, aside from the areas noted in the tropical waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A mid to upper level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection over the central and northern Gulf. Similar convection is depicted over the eastern Gulf in association to a surface trough over Florida. High pressure prevails across the Gulf region, anchored by a 1014 mb high pressure centered near 26N87W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SW Gulf. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Slight seas dominate the forecast waters. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the Yucatan peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate seas offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along about 25N into south Florida. The pressure gradient between this subtropical ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader area of strong winds, locally near- gale force, and rough seas, early through mid week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A mid level trough is supporting numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms north of 24N and between 73W and 19.5W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 25N55W. Light to gentle winds prevail near the high center, as well as along the ridge extending from the high along 23N. A stronger area of high pressure, 1027 mb, is centered north of the area near 36N22W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure, and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds N of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate winds prevail. Seas across the forecast area are in the moderate range. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extends from the central Atlantic westward along about 25N and into south Florida this morning, and will gradually shift eastward through early next week. This pattern will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the regional waters, and support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. A weak cold front will approach the northern waters then stall along 30N-31N during the first part of next week. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC062356_C_KWBC_20260906235654_38011292-1764-TWDAT.txt ****0000005926**** AXNT20 KNHC 062356 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Mon Sep 07 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 25W south of 20N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is presently occurring with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 41W south of 20N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Only isolated showers are seen near its southern portion from 07N to 09N. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is presently occurring with this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 81W, reaching southward to central Panama. It is extends from central Cuba southward into the far eastern Pacific. The wave is moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are south of 11N west of the wave inland Central America, and also south of 10N east of the wave to the northwest portion of Colombia. This activity is being further enhanced by the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that crosses the wave axis near 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19.5N16W, and continues southwestward to 05N32W, then west-northwestward to near 07N40W. The ITCZ continues from 08N42W to near 07N55W. Aside from convection described above under Tropical Waves, convection remains very limited across the area under a dry and stable atmospheric environment. At best, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are present. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A shortwave trough aloft moving through the southeastern U.S. is working on a very moist and unstable airmass that is in place over the region. This is resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms over some sections of northern and central Florida, southern Alabama and Mississippi. A weak trough near the southeastern Gulf is helping to sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of about 25N and east of 92W to near the Florida Keys and over some sections of the Straits of Florida. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1014 mb high near 26N87W, is providing for light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SW Gulf. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Slight seas are over the forecast waters. For the forecast, the aforementioned weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate seas offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere over the central Caribbean as highlighted by satellite scatterometer data passes. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends east to west roughly along 25N to South Florida. The pressure gradient between this subtropical ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas over the south- central Caribbean. The gradient will begin to tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader area of strong winds, and locally near-gale force, with rough seas, Mon through midweek. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The combination of a mid-level trough and ample deep atmospheric moisture and instability in place is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms north of about 23N and west of 72W. Similar activity to the southeast of a frontal boundary is noted north of 27N between 56W and 72W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb high center near 25N54W. The associated gradient is generally allowing for gentle winds near the high center, as well as along the ridge extending from the high along 25N. A stronger high center of 1026 mb is centered north of the area near 36N21W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure, and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 30W as depicted in satellite scatterometer data passes. Elsewhere, moderate winds prevail. Seas across the forecast area are in the moderate range. For the forecast west of 55W, the high center near 25N54W will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through early next week. This pattern will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the regional waters, and support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through Tue. A weak cold front will approach the northern waters tonight, hen stall near 31N through midweek before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters west of 65W through Tue. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC062358_C_KWBC_20260906235854_38011292-1765-TWDAT.txt ****0000005926**** AXNT20 KNHC 062358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Mon Sep 07 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 25W south of 20N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is presently occurring with this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 41W south of 20N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Only isolated showers are seen near its southern portion from 07N to 09N. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 70W. It is moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is presently occurring with this wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 81W, reaching southward to central Panama. It is extends from central Cuba southward into the far eastern Pacific. The wave is moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are south of 11N west of the wave inland Central America, and also south of 10N east of the wave to the northwest portion of Colombia. This activity is being further enhanced by the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough that crosses the wave axis near 10N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19.5N16W, and continues southwestward to 05N32W, then west-northwestward to near 07N40W. The ITCZ continues from 08N42W to near 07N55W. Aside from convection described above under Tropical Waves, convection remains very limited across the area under a dry and stable atmospheric environment. At best, only isolated showers and thunderstorms are present. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A shortwave trough aloft moving through the southeastern U.S. is working on a very moist and unstable airmass that is in place over the region. This is resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms over some sections of northern and central Florida, southern Alabama and Mississippi. A weak trough near the southeastern Gulf is helping to sustain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of about 25N and east of 92W to near the Florida Keys and over some sections of the Straits of Florida. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1014 mb high near 26N87W, is providing for light to gentle winds in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SW Gulf. Mainly gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Slight seas are over the forecast waters. For the forecast, the aforementioned weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, supporting mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over most of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate seas offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere over the central Caribbean as highlighted by satellite scatterometer data passes. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge extends east to west roughly along 25N to South Florida. The pressure gradient between this subtropical ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas over the south- central Caribbean. The gradient will begin to tighten starting Mon, leading to a broader area of strong winds, and locally near-gale force, with rough seas, Mon through midweek. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through the middle of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The combination of a mid-level trough and ample deep atmospheric moisture and instability in place is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms north of about 23N and west of 72W. Similar activity to the southeast of a frontal boundary is noted north of 27N between 56W and 72W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb high center near 25N54W. The associated gradient is generally allowing for gentle winds near the high center, as well as along the ridge extending from the high along 25N. A stronger high center of 1026 mb is centered north of the area near 36N21W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure, and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds north of the monsoon trough and east of 30W as depicted in satellite scatterometer data passes. Elsewhere, moderate winds prevail. Seas across the forecast area are in the moderate range. For the forecast west of 55W, the high center near 25N54W will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through early next week. This pattern will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the regional waters, and support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through Tue. A weak cold front will approach the northern waters tonight, hen stall near 31N through midweek before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters west of 65W through Tue. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################