--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC300506_C_KWBC_20260730050651_49676782-9646-TWDAT.txt ****0000005284**** AXNT20 KNHC 300506 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Jul 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, from 02N to 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Any nearby convection is described with the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 07N to 13N between 46W and 57W. An eastern to central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W, south of 20N near the western Dominican Republic to western Venezuela, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. No significant convection is seen near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from Mauritania at 19N17W to 09N22W to 12N36W. The ITCZ extends from 12N36W to 09N47W where it is broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ then resumes from 07N50W to 06N54W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 06N to 11N between 25W and 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A persistent surface trough is from near Naples, Florida to the eastern Gulf near 26N87W. Clusters of scattered moderate to strong convection are noted N of 26N and E of 86W. Otherwise, 1014 mb high pressure near 27N91W controls the basin with gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevailing across much of the Gulf and away from areas of convection, except for the SW Gulf where a surface trough is driving moderate to fresh E winds. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the basin. For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the weekend. A trough extends from Tampa, Florida to 26N86W while a mid to upper level broad trough north of the area is slowly advancing southward toward a very moist and unstable Gulf airmass. This set-up will maintain scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the NE Gulf through the rest of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid to upper level feature is supporting moderate convection in the NW Caribbean just southeast of the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, high pressure at the surface over the central Atlantic and low pressure over northern Colombia supports the typical fresh to strong trades across the basin from 11N to 18N including the Gulf of Honduras, except locally near gale force near northern Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft from 10N to 18N to the east of 80W, and mainly 3 to 5 ft elsewhere except lower in the lee of Cuba. Seas are locally 8-10 ft offshore N Colombia. For the forecast, the coverage area and strength of the trades will increase on Thu as the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low increases. By that time, expect fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with the strongest winds to near gale, or possible brief gusts to gale and highest seas offshore Colombia. Fresh winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal trough extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas. Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of our waters supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 28N and W of 75W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure system near 30N51W. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and frontal trough support fresh to strong S-SW winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft north of 28N and west of 65W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 20N and west of 40W, with locally strong E winds E of the Lesser Antilles to about 60W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are evident from 15N to 30N and east of 20W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a ridge farther south than usual, roughly along 25N, through Fri. This, in combination with a frontal trough over the western Atlantic, will support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily north of 27N and west of 70W for the next several days. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night and into the mornings through the upcoming weekend. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC300950_C_KWBC_20260730095111_47448518-9646-TWDAT.txt ****0000005199**** AXNT20 KNHC 300950 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jul 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, from 02N to 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 10N between 28W-33W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 07N to 13N between 46W and 57W. An eastern to central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20N near Dominican Republic to western Venezuela, moving westward at around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is seen near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from Mauritania at 19N16W to 13N38W. The ITCZ extends from 13N38W to 13N49W where it is broken by a tropical wave. Aside from the convection described in the section above, no significant convection is noted along these boundaries at this time. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A persistent surface trough is from near Naples, Florida to the eastern Gulf near 26N87W. Scattered moderate to strong convection are noted N of 26N and E of 86W. Otherwise, 1015 mb high pressure near 26N89W controls the basin with gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevailing across much of the Gulf and away from areas of convection, except for the SW Gulf where a surface trough is driving moderate to fresh E winds. Seas are 1 to 3 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the weekend. A trough extends from Tampa, Florida to 26N86W, while a mid to upper level broad trough north of the area is slowly advancing southward toward a very moist and unstable Gulf airmass. This set-up will maintain scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the NE Gulf through the rest of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A mid to upper level feature is supporting moderate convection in the NW Caribbean just southeast of the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, high pressure at the surface over the central Atlantic and low pressure over northern Colombia supports the typical fresh to strong trades across the basin from 11N to 18N including the Gulf of Honduras, except near gale force near northern Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft from 10N to 18N to the east of 80W, and mainly 3 to 5 ft elsewhere except lower in the lee of Cuba. Seas are locally 8-10 ft offshore N Colombia. For the forecast, the coverage area and strength of the trades will continue increasing today as the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian Low increases. Expect fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across most of the eastern and central Caribbean, with the strongest winds to near gale, or possible brief gusts to gale and highest seas offshore Colombia. Fresh winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal trough extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas. Divergence aloft associated with an upper-level trough north of our waters supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 28N and W of 75W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure system near 31N51W. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and frontal trough support fresh to strong S-SW winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft north of 28N and west of 65W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 20N and west of 40W, with strong E winds E of the Lesser Antilles to about 60W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are evident from 15N to 30N and east of 20W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will maintain a ridge farther south than usual, roughly along 25N, through Fri. This, in combination with a frontal trough over the western Atlantic, will support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily north of 27N and west of 65W for the next several days. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night and into the mornings through the upcoming weekend. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC301544_C_KWBC_20260730154514_47448518-9670-TWDAT.txt ****0000006086**** AXNT20 KNHC 301544 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jul 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in NW South America will support strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will increase to gale-force in the offshore waters of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.gov/text/MIAHFSAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 11N and between 23W and 24W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 16N and between 44W and 61W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from Mauritania at 18N16W to 06N25W and to 12N38W. The ITCZ extends from 12N38W to 11N53W and then from 10N55W to 08N59W. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the convection near the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the NE Gulf waters associated with a frontal boundary north of the area and low-level convergence. The remainder of the basin is under fairly tranquil weather conditions. A weak pressure gradient dominates the Gulf waters, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. However, stronger winds and higher seas are likely occurring near the stronger convection. For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the weekend. Unsettled weather in the form of scattered and thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend as a frontal boundary remains just N of the area, and as a moist and unstable airmass prevails over that section of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean. An upper-level low over the Yucatan peninsula is generating a few showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 80W in the western Caribbean. Drier conditions are noted elsewhere. High pressure north of the islands forces fresh to near gale- force easterly trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas to 11 ft occurring off NW Colombia. A recent partial scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 29 kt. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds and slight to locally moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia for tonight. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Elsewhere across the central Caribbean, fresh to near gale trades will continue to expand in coverage through early Fri as the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in northern Colombian tightens. Mostly fresh trades will continue elsewhere south S of about 18N through the rest of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge continues to dominate much of the tropical Atlantic waters. In the SW North Atlantic, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted north of 28N and west of 70W associated with a cold front and upper-level trough just north of the area. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and frontal boundary results in fresh to strong S-SW winds and seas of 6-9 ft north of 27N and west of 65W. Stronger winds and higher seas may be occurring near the stronger convection. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 25N and west of 35W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 15N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from 25N65W to the Straits of Florida will change little through Sat night before it shifts northward to near 28N into early next week. The gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to generally support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily north of 27N and west of 65W for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night and into the mornings through the upcoming weekend. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC301941CCA_C_KWBC_20260730194215_47448518-9688-TWDAT.txt ****0000006158**** AXNT20 KNHC 301941 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jul 30 2026 Corrected Gulf of America synopsis Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in NW South America will support strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will increase to gale-force in the offshore waters of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.gov/text/MIAHFSAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 11N and between 23W and 24W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 16N and between 44W and 61W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from Mauritania at 18N16W to 06N25W and to 12N38W. The ITCZ extends from 12N38W to 11N53W and then from 10N55W to 08N59W. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the convection near the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA...Corrected Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the NE Gulf waters associated with a frontal boundary north of the area and low-level convergence. The remainder of the basin is under fairly tranquil weather conditions. A weak pressure gradient dominates the Gulf waters, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. However, stronger winds and higher seas are likely occurring near the stronger convection. For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the weekend. Unsettled weather in the form of scattered shwoers and thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend as a frontal boundary remains just N of the area, and as a moist and unstable airmass prevails over that section of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean. An upper-level low over the Yucatan peninsula is generating a few showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 80W in the western Caribbean. Drier conditions are noted elsewhere. High pressure north of the islands forces fresh to near gale- force easterly trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas to 11 ft occurring off NW Colombia. A recent partial scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 29 kt. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds and slight to locally moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia for tonight. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Elsewhere across the central Caribbean, fresh to near gale trades will continue to expand in coverage through early Fri as the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in northern Colombian tightens. Mostly fresh trades will continue elsewhere south S of about 18N through the rest of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge continues to dominate much of the tropical Atlantic waters. In the SW North Atlantic, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted north of 28N and west of 70W associated with a cold front and upper-level trough just north of the area. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and frontal boundary results in fresh to strong S-SW winds and seas of 6-9 ft north of 27N and west of 65W. Stronger winds and higher seas may be occurring near the stronger convection. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 25N and west of 35W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 15N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from 25N65W to the Straits of Florida will change little through Sat night before it shifts northward to near 28N into early next week. The gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to generally support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily north of 27N and west of 65W for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night and into the mornings through the upcoming weekend. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC302120CCA_C_KWBC_20260730212116_47448518-9696-TWDAT.txt ****0000006163**** AXNT20 KNHC 302120 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jul 30 2026 Corrected Gulf of America synopsis Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in NW South America will support strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will increase to gale-force in the offshore waters of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 11N and between 23W and 24W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 16N and between 44W and 61W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from Mauritania at 18N16W to 06N25W and to 12N38W. The ITCZ extends from 12N38W to 11N53W and then from 10N55W to 08N59W. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the convection near the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA...Corrected Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the NE Gulf waters associated with a frontal boundary north of the area and low-level convergence. The remainder of the basin is under fairly tranquil weather conditions. A weak pressure gradient dominates the Gulf waters, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. However, stronger winds and higher seas are likely occurring near the stronger convection. For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the weekend. Unsettled weather in the form of scattered shwoers and thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend as a frontal boundary remains just N of the area, and as a moist and unstable airmass prevails over that section of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean. An upper-level low over the Yucatan peninsula is generating a few showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 80W in the western Caribbean. Drier conditions are noted elsewhere. High pressure north of the islands forces fresh to near gale- force easterly trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas to 11 ft occurring off NW Colombia. A recent partial scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 29 kt. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds and slight to locally moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia for tonight. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Elsewhere across the central Caribbean, fresh to near gale trades will continue to expand in coverage through early Fri as the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in northern Colombian tightens. Mostly fresh trades will continue elsewhere south S of about 18N through the rest of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge continues to dominate much of the tropical Atlantic waters. In the SW North Atlantic, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted north of 28N and west of 70W associated with a cold front and upper-level trough just north of the area. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and frontal boundary results in fresh to strong S-SW winds and seas of 6-9 ft north of 27N and west of 65W. Stronger winds and higher seas may be occurring near the stronger convection. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 25N and west of 35W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 15N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from 25N65W to the Straits of Florida will change little through Sat night before it shifts northward to near 28N into early next week. The gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to generally support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily north of 27N and west of 65W for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night and into the mornings through the upcoming weekend. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC302141_C_KWBC_20260730214157_49676782-9701-TWDAT.txt ****0000006459**** AXNT20 KNHC 302141 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Jul 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in NW South America will support strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will increase to gale-force in the offshore waters of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.gov/text/MIAHFSAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern to central Atlantic tropical wave is along 36W, south of 20N, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 07N between 25W and 30.5W. A tropical N Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, south of 19N to near Barbados and Suriname, moving quickly westward at around 20 to 25 kt. Nearby convection which is present is described below with the ITCZ. An western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 20N just to the west of Jamaica, moving quickly westward at around 25 kt. Any nearby convection is currently observed in the far eastern Tropical Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from the northern coast of Mauritania at 20N16W to southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands to 09N28W to 12N40W. The ITCZ extends from 12N40W to 10N56W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 10N58W to the far NE coast of Venezuela at 08N62W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 210 nm NNW of the ITCZ between 48W and 59W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure of 1018 mb is remaining over the central Gulf near 25N88W with a northwest to southeast ridge through the high. As a result, anticyclonic winds are light to gentle along and around the ridge axis, and moderate along the periphery closer to the Gulf coastlines. Seas are 1 to 2 ft near the weaker winds, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. Some moderate convection is noted near the NW coast of Yucatan near a surface trough analyzed over the peninsula, with additional activity near the coast of Florida, Mississippi and Alabama. For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the weekend. Unsettled weather in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend as a frontal boundary remains just N of the area, and at the same a very moist and unstable airmass prevails over region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean. High pressure north of the islands forces fresh to near gale- force easterly trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas to 11 ft occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found elsewhere from 11N to 18N. Across the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to locally moderate seas prevail. Some convection is present near eastern Honduras and Nicaragua due to the proximity of a tropical wave and lower to mid level support. For the forecast, a Gale Warning is in effect tonight for the offshore waters of Colombia and for the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are expected to build to around 14 ft with these winds. Elsewhere across the central Caribbean, fresh to near gale trades will continue to expand in coverage through early Fri as the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in northern Colombian tightens. Mostly fresh trades will continue elsewhere south S of about 18N through the rest of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Fri night, then to fresh speeds for the remainder of the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary is just north of the discussion waters and SW N Atlantic offshore waters zones from northwest of Bermuda to 1011 mb low pressure near 32N79.5W to near Savannah, Georgia. Associated scattered moderate isolated strong convection is north of 27N and west of 69W. Fresh to strong SW winds and 5 to 9 ft seas are there as well. Otherwise, a broad subtropical ridge continues to dominate much of the tropical Atlantic waters anchored by a 1025 mb high pressure center near 31N51W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 20N, except fresh to strong N to NE winds from offshore Africa to the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across the area of fresh to strong winds, as well as in the Tropical N Atlantic offshore waters zones due to the proximity of a tropical wave. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic waters. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from near 25N65W to the Straits of Florida will change little through Sat night before it shifts northward to near 28N into early next week. The gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to generally support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily north of 27N and west of 65W for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night and into the mornings through the upcoming weekend. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################