--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-09-14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC140430_C_KWBC_20260914043119_4522426-3498-TWDAT.txt ****0000006896**** AXNT20 KNHC 140430 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found from 07N to 16N between 43W and 49.5W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 17N, moving westward at near 15 kt. A few showers are found ahead of this wave between 10N and 13N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W and continues to 10.5N19W to 08N31W to 11N44W. The ITCZ extends from 9.5N51W to near 12N67W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 12N between 11W and 22W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 22W and 34W, and from 05N to 11.5N between 35W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A middle to upper-level low is centered over the western gulf and continue to promote unstable conditions and areas of active convection across the basin. However, as has been the case in recent nights, late afternoon-early evening convection has diminished significantly in recent hours. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in a band over the central Gulf from 24.tN to 27N between 95W and the W coast of Florida. Scattered strong evening convection occurring over southern Mexico has drifted across the near shore coastal waters in the Veracruz area, and across much of the southern Bay of Campeche. At the surface, a 1017 mb high is analyzed near 28.5N86W, while a weak surface trough extends from central Florida southwestward into the coastal waters offshore of Marco Island. A weak pressure pattern prevails over the basin with light to gentle anticyclonic flow over most of the basin, with 1-3 ft seas, and fresh NE flow along the NW and W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, weak ridging centered over the NE Gulf will persist into Tue, supporting relatively tranquil conditions across much of the basin. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where a diurnal trough will move westward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through late this week, bringing nightly pulses of fresh NE winds. Starting late Tue, stronger high pressure building southward from the eastern United States will lead to increasing NE to E winds over the basin, with speeds reaching fresh to strong and rough seas over the northern Gulf Wed through Thu night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle to upper-level low pressure is centered over Haiti, and promoting unstable conditions over south and east portions of the Caribbean. Multi-layered clouds with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms prevail over most of the eastern basin E of 71W, across the Lesser Antilles to 58W. Scattered strong convection is occurring across the SW Caribbean south of 13.5N from western Panama to central Nicaragua. Weak high pressure across the NE Gulf of America and the western Atlantic is combining with a 1006 mb Colombian Low to sustain strong to near gale-force NE to E winds over much of the central Caribbean S of 16N. Rough seas of 7 to 11 ft are occurring in these waters. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident elsewhere south of 18N, including the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the NW basin. For the forecast, the western Atlantic subtropical ridge centered NE of the Bahamas and extending into the NE Gulf of America will combine with lower pressure in Colombia to sustain fresh to strong with locally near gale-force easterly trade winds, and moderate to rough seas across much of the central Caribbean through the workweek. Strong winds are expected tonight in the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly breezes are expected over the next several days in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Of note, Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the ongoing easterly gap wind event through the Straits of Gibraltar. This warning will remain in effect through 14/06Z. A low level trough persists across the central Atlantic, with surface trough analyzed from 22N46W to 29N47W. A small and tight deep layered upper low is centered just W of this trough near 27.5N50W, and is supporting scattered moderate isolated strong convection from 24N to 30N between 43W and 49W. Widely scattered moderate convection is also occurring near a pair of low level low centers along 30N between 55W and 68W. Otherwise, weak ridging continues from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas, yielding light to gentle anticyclonic winds N of 24N and W of 65W, where seas are 3 ft or less, while moderate to fresh easterly trades are occurring through the SE Bahamas and near the N coast of Hispaniola, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. A relatively weak pressure gradient dominates the tropical Atlantic with moderate or weaker winds across the waters between 30W and 65W, except moderate to fresh near the two tropical waves, and the surface trough along 46W-47W. Across the NE Atlantic waters moderate NE winds prevail from the Canary Islands to 30W and N of 20N, with seas of 5 to 6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a broad subtropical ridge dominates much of the basin W of 50W, and will force fresh to locally strong easterly winds off Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage tonight and Mon night, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. On Tue, strong high pressure building southward through the eastern United States will bring a cold front into the NW waters, producing fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas building 6 to 9ft N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through Wed night. During the middle to later portion of the week, a trough of low pressure is forecast to move west- northwestward into the NE portion of the waters, bringing active thunderstorms. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################