--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC130608_C_KWBC_20261013060943_31523192-6407-TWDAT.txt ****0000005654**** AXNT20 KNHC 130608 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 32W, from 10N to 20N, moving westward near 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed at the wave axis near 17N32W. Fresh to strong winds are approximately within 390 nm NE semicircle, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is present from 15N to 22N between 23W and 31W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 08N to 16N between 30W and 37W. Environmental conditions appear, at best, only marginally conducive for development of this system before upper-level winds become too strong for any further development on Tuesday. Regardless, heavy rainfall is expected to continue for the next day or two across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and some flooding is possible there as the system moves slowly northward to north-northwestward. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and through next 7 days. A tropical wave is analyzed near 45W, from 10N to 20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 09N to 16N between 36W and 46W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 13N35W to 11N48W. The ITCZ extends from 11N48W to 10N55W to 10N62W. See information on the convection in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weakening stationary front extends from SW Florida near 25N81W to the Yucatan adjacent waters near 22N90W to 23N93W. A 1018 mb high is located over the Mississippi/Alabama coastal waters, which is providing gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the eastern half of the Gulf S of 27N, and E to SE winds of the same speed W of 90W. Seas basin-wide are mainly slight with some areas reaching 4 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate through Wed. High pressure building in the wake of the front over the north-central Gulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf Fri night, and reach from SW Florida to the far SW Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front, with strong gales possible off the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos Fri night through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and tstms are over the lee of Cuba adjacent waters, in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. A middle-level low is supporting scattered to isolated showers over the eastern half of the basin. This low aloft reflects at the surface on a trough that is moving across western Hispaniola. Otherwise, the passage of a cold front N of the area along with low pressure E of the Bahamas are supporting a weak pressure gradient across the region, thus resulting in moderate or weaker trade winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh winds offshore Venezuela in the south-central Caribbean. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be active across the central Caribbean through tonight, associated with an upper level low. Fresh winds across the south-central Caribbean will diminish through tonight as high pressure north of the region shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will persist through midweek across the Caribbean, then increase again later in the week as high pressure builds north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N70W to Freeport in the Bahamas where it stalls. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from 29N70W to 25N76W, which is supporting isolated showers ahead of it to approximately 67W. Farther east, a 1014 mb low is centered near 26N66W. however it lacks convection. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic are under the influence of the Azores ridge with a weakening stationary front that extends from 31N32W to 27N51W. A surface trough connects to the tail of this front and continues to 22N54W. Further east, there is another trough near 39W, however all these features lack convection. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are N of 20N W of 44W. East of 44W, winds are fresh to strong in the NE semicircle of a low connected to a tropical wave near 32W. Fresh to locally strong winds are also ongoing between the coast of W Africa and the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will continue moving east tonight, stall on Tue, then dissipate through Wed. A second reinforcing front will move southward into the waters east of 75W Tue into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC131023_C_KWBC_20261013102344_31523192-6427-TWDAT.txt ****0000005077**** AXNT20 KNHC 131023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Oct 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 33W, from 10N to 20N, moving westward near 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed at the wave axis near 18N32W. Fresh to strong winds are approximately within 390 nm NE semicircle, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is present from 12N to 25N between 21W and 35W. Further development of this system appears unlikely as the low moves slowly northward to north-northwestward and encounters stronger upper-level winds today and tonight. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected to continue today across western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands with some flooding possible there. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and through next 7 days. A tropical wave is analyzed near 45W, from 10N to 20N, moving westward near 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 10N to 21N between 35W and 46W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 11N47W. The ITCZ extends from 11N47W to 10N55W to 09N61W. See information on the convection in the Tropical Waves section above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1018 mb high is located near 29N88W, which is providing gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the eastern half of the Gulf S of 27N, and E to SE winds of the same speed W of 90W. Seas basin- wide are mainly slight with some areas reaching 4 ft. For the forecast, High pressure building across the basin will support E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. A cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Fri night, and reach from southwest Florida to the far southwest Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible off the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos Fri night through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and tstms are over the lee of Cuba adjacent waters, in the Windward Passage and in the Gulf of Honduras. A middle-level low is supporting scattered to isolated showers over the eastern half of the basin. This low aloft reflects at the surface on a trough that is moving across the central Caribbean. Otherwise, the passage of a weakening cold front N of the area along with low pressure E of the Bahamas are supporting a weak pressure gradient across the region, thus resulting in moderate or weaker trade winds and slight to moderate seas, except for fresh winds offshore Venezuela in the south-central Caribbean. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be active across the central Caribbean through today, associated with an upper level low. Fresh winds across the south-central Caribbean will diminish by this morning as high pressure north of the region shifts eastward. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will persist through mid week across the Caribbean, then increase again later in the week as high pressure builds north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening cold front extends from 31N69W to 25N80W. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from 30N68W to 27N79W, which is supporting scattered showers ahead of it to approximately 67W. Farther east, a 1012 mb low is centered near 26N67W. However, it lacks convection. The central and eastern subtropical Atlantic are under the influence of the Azores ridge with a weakening stationary front that extends from 31N34W to 29N48W. A surface trough is analyzed from 28N51W to 23N55W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are N of 20N W of 44W. East of 44W, winds are fresh to strong in the NE semicircle of a low connected to a tropical wave near 32W. Fresh to strong winds are also ongoing between the coast of W Africa and the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will dissipate through Wed. A second reinforcing front will move southward into the waters east of 75W into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################