--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-31 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC310359_C_KWBC_20260531035929_47448518-4472-TWDAT.txt ****0000005724**** AXNT20 KNHC 310359 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun May 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Sunday. A tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds on either side of the cold front Sun afternoon, south and southeast of Bermuda to near 29N, and between 55W and 65W. Strong to near- gale force winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected mainly along and ahead of the front, north of 26N. Conditions will improve Mon as the front weakens and high pressure builds in its wake. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An east Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 23W, south of 13N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 09N and between 20W and 30W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted S of 12N to well inland across Venezuela, between 57W and 70W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W, south of 16N, moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of 10N and east of 20W. Isolated showers are seen from 03N to 10N and west of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A deep-layered upper level trough from the north-central to the southwestern Gulf continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern half of the basin. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient prevails with a surface trough extending from offshore of southern Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche, with Atlantic high pressure extending into south Florida. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the basin. However, stronger winds and higher seas can be expected near the strongest storms. For the forecast, . ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft and diurnal heating support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of Cuba, Yucatan, Central America and surrounding waters. The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge NE of the islands and lower pressures in northern Colombia results in fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, . ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front extends northeastward from a 1010 mb low pressure system near 30N75W and a surface trough extends southwestward from the low. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted ahead of the front low to 68W and north of 26N. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted north of 27N and between 68W and 76W. Moderate to fresh S-SE winds and moderate seas are found north of 20N and between 50W and 68W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic are dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 30N35W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa sustain fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas from 10N to 29N and east of 40W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 20N and between the Lesser Antilles and 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are ahead of a 1010 mb low pressure area located near 30N75W. A surface trough extends from the low center to the NW Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will be associated with these features as they moves eastward through tonight ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the area. The cold front will also shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by early Sun. Expect strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas along and ahead of the front north of 29N Sun into Sun night. The front will weaken and stall from 31N57W to 27N65W by early Mon. Winds and seas diminish west of the front as high pressure builds between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Looking ahead, a second low pressure area and accompanying front may move off northeast Florida on Mon and shift eastward toward Bermuda through mid week, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the waters north of 27N. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC310400_C_KWBC_20260531040113_49676782-4385-TWDAT.txt ****0000006960**** AXNT20 KNHC 310400 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun May 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Sunday. A tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds on either side of the cold front Sun afternoon, south and southeast of Bermuda to near 29N, and between 55W and 65W. Strong to near- gale force winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected mainly along and ahead of the front, north of 26N. Conditions will improve Mon as the front weakens and high pressure builds in its wake. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An east Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 23W, south of 13N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 09N and between 20W and 30W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted S of 12N to well inland across Venezuela, between 57W and 70W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W, south of 16N, moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of 10N and east of 20W. Isolated showers are seen from 03N to 10N and west of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A deep-layered upper level trough from the north-central to the southwestern Gulf continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern half of the basin. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient prevails with a surface trough extending from offshore of southern Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche, with Atlantic high pressure extending into south Florida. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the basin. However, stronger winds and higher seas can be expected near the strongest storms. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through midweek supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula and in the central Gulf through the same period. A pronounced deep-layered upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with a very warm, humid and unstable airmass will continue to support rounds of showers and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through at least Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft and diurnal heating support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across parts of Cuba, Yucatan, Central America and surrounding waters. The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge NE of the islands and lower pressures in northern Colombia results in fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the basin through the early part of the next week, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. The area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will expand across the east and central Caribbean Mon night into Tue as the ridge north of the area strengthens. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish slightly starting late Wed as the ridge north of the basin weakens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front extends northeastward from a 1010 mb low pressure system near 30N75W and a surface trough extends southwestward from the low. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted ahead of the front low to 68W and north of 26N. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted north of 27N and between 68W and 76W. Moderate to fresh S-SE winds and moderate seas are found north of 20N and between 50W and 68W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic are dominated by a broad subtropical ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 30N35W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa sustain fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas from 10N to 29N and east of 40W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are present south of 20N and between the Lesser Antilles and 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are ahead of a 1010 mb low pressure area located near 30N75W. A surface trough extends from the low center to the NW Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will be associated with these features as they moves eastward through tonight ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the area. The cold front will also shift eastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by early Sun. Expect strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas along and ahead of the front north of 29N Sun into Sun night. The front will weaken and stall from 31N57W to 27N65W by early Mon. Winds and seas diminish west of the front as high pressure builds between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Looking ahead, a second low pressure area and accompanying front may move off northeast Florida on Mon and shift eastward toward Bermuda through mid week, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the waters north of 27N. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC311012_C_KWBC_20260531101332_47448518-4496-TWDAT.txt ****0000006132**** AXNT20 KNHC 311012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun May 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda today. A tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds on either side of the cold front by late morning, south and southeast of Bermuda to near 29N, and between 55W and 65W. Strong to near- gale force winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected mainly along and ahead of the front, north of 26N. Conditions will improve into Mon as the front weakens and high pressure builds in its wake. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 25W, south of 13N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this tropical wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted near 09N70W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W, south of 15N, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 12N between 78W and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 06N25W. The ITCZ extends from 06N25W to 05N30W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to 09N between 20W and 22W, and from 05N to 07N between 48W and 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A deep-layered upper level trough from the north-central to the southwestern Gulf continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the south-central basin. At the surface, a surface trough extends from offshore of southern Louisiana to 25N96W, and off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The pressure gradient between these features and the Atlantic ridge extending into the southeast Gulf is supporting mostly gentle to moderate SE to S flow and 2-4 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through midweek supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula and in the central Gulf through the same period. An upper-level trough across the western Gulf will continue to support showers and thunderstorms across the central Gulf through the early part of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic ridge extends from the north-central Atlantic but then is displaced slightly southward to north of Hispaniola and Cuba. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong trade winds off northwest Venezuela and northeast Colombia, where seas are likely up to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off eastern Honduras, in the far western Gulf of Honduras near Puerto Barrios, and north of central Panama where a tropical wave is interacting with the Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the basin into Mon, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. The area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will expand across the east and central Caribbean Mon night into Tue as the ridge north of the area strengthens. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish slightly starting late Wed as the ridge north of the basin weakens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front extends from Bermuda to 1010 mb low pressure near 31N70W. A trough extends from the low to Abaco Island in the northern Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active within 90 nm east of these features. The Atlantic ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near the Azores to Hispaniola. The gradient between the ridge and the low pressure/warm front is supporting strong SW winds and seas to 7 ft within 300 nm to the southeast of the low pressure, with fresh SW winds and 5-8 ft seas covering north of 25N between 55W and 75W. Elsewhere fresh to strong NE to E winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail south of the ridge axis across the tropical Atlantic west of 40W. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6-9 ft seas are noted east of 40W north of 10N, with gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas south of 10N. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft are noted along the ridge axis. Saharan dust covers the area north of 10N and east of 60W, reaching as far west as the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, strong to minimal gale-force winds and rough seas accompany 1010 mb low pressure moving eastward along 30N toward Bermuda through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will shift southeastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas today. The front will lift north tonight ahead of another low pressure system moving South Carolina Mon, which will dissipate as it moves southeast of Bermuda through mid week. Looking ahead, a third low pressure area will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda Wed and Thu. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC311808_C_KWBC_20260531180934_47448518-4518-TWDAT.txt ****0000006444**** AXNT20 KNHC 311808 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun May 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front reaches southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N65W to a 1010 mb low near 29N67W, then continues as a cold front to 31N64W and turns northwestward to beyond 31N81W. Near- gale to Gale SW winds are expected just east of the low near 30N64W by 18Z late this afternoon. As the low pulls northeastward and weaken tonight, it should allow winds to drop below gale- force later this evening. Seas under these winds will peak at 10 to 12 ft during this period. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is south of the Cabo Verde Islands near 26W from 12N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 08N between 22W and 30W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 68W from 16N southward to over Venezuela. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the northeastern Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from 15N southward across western Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. It is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near Dakar, then curves southwestward to 07N22W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 07N22W to 05N40W to the coast of Guyana. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring near and south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 08N and west of 22W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is present up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is triggering scattered moderate convection at the central and north-central Gulf. Otherwise, a modest ridge of high pressure at the eastern Gulf is maintaining gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft seas much of the Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through midweek supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula and in the central Gulf through the same period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic to near Hispaniola and Cuba. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered moderate convection in the Gulf of Honduras, and as well as isolated thunderstorms near the southern coast of Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft seas exist at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted at the lee of Cuba and near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the combination of the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the basin into Mon, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. The area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will expand across the eastern and central basin Mon night into Tue as the ridge north of the area strengthens. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish slightly starting late Wed as the ridge north of the basin weakens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning. A stationary front reaches southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N65W to a 1010 mb low near 29N67W, then continues as a cold front to 31N64W and turns northwestward to beyond 31N81W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring up to 200 nm east of this boundary east of 71W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 50 nm along either side of the rest of the boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale S to SW winds with 7 to 9 ft seas are noted near and up to 250 nm east of the aforementioned frontal boundary. Otherwise, an elongated ridge associated with a large 1030 mb high near 30N35W is dominating the Atlantic north of 23N west of 35W with gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles/southeast Bahamas, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 6 to 9 ft are evident. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure will move northeast and be absorbed by a stronger low pressure located north of the area later today. The cold front will shift southeastward, reaching from 31N58W to 27N65W to 24N71W by early Mon morning when fresh to strong SW winds and moderate to locally rough seas will continue to affect waters north of 28N between 54W and 61W. Another low pressure is going to enter into the Atlantic off the northeastern Florida/southern Georgia coast on Mon, and then dissipate as it moves eastward toward of Bermuda late on Tue. Looking ahead, a third low pressure area will move between northeastern Florida and Bermuda Wed and Thu. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC312236_C_KWBC_20260531223636_47448518-4530-TWDAT.txt ****0000005833**** AXNT20 KNHC 312236 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun May 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1010 mb low pressure is noted near 29N66W, with a warm front extending NE from it to beyond 31N64W. To the east of the low and S of the warm front, gale force SW winds are occurring. The low will track NE and out of the region tonight, and gales will end. Seas of 10 to 12 ft will also diminish some as the winds decrease. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is SW of the Cabo Verde Islands near 28W from 12N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has diminished this afternoon. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 70W from 16N southward to over Venezuela. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Relatively dry air over the basin is precluding convection near this wave at this time. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from 14W southward across western Panama into the East Pacific. It is moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is W of this wave, within about 120 nm of the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal 14N17W, then curves southwestward to 07N25W. An ITCZ continues west from 07N25W to 05N40W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and south of the monsoon trough from 04N to 08N and west of 22W. Scattered moderate convection is present up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough that extends from 25N88W to just NW of the Yucatan Peninsula is inducing scattered moderate convection in the central Gulf near the northern vertex of the trough. To the E of the trough, fresh E winds are noted just N of the Yucatan Peninsula, where locally moderate seas are present. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with slight seas. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through midweek supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula and in the central Gulf through the same period. An upper-level trough across the western Gulf will continue to support showers and thunderstorms across the east and central Gulf through the early part of the week. Expect fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough seas across the NE Gulf Wed and Wed night as a frontal boundary reaches the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic to near Hispaniola and Cuba. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered moderate convection in the Gulf of Honduras, and as well as isolated thunderstorms near the southern coast of Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Strong E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted in the south-central basin, with fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin into Mon, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. The area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will expand across the east and central Caribbean Mon night into Tue as the ridge north of the area strengthens. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish slightly starting late Wed as the ridge north of the basin weakens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning for waters S of Bermuda. Extending from the low pressure S of Bermuda that is inducing the gales, a cold front continues southward to 26N73W to just off the NE Florida coast. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along and within 150 nm S of the front. Aside from the hazardous conditions described in the gale conditions and the locally hazardous conditions associated with convection, broader winds in the western basin near the boundary area moderate or weaker with mainly moderate seas. Elsewhere, an elongated ridge associated with a 1029 mb high centered near 30N36W dominates much of the central and eastern basin, leading to widespread moderate to fresh trades and moderate to rough seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will shift southeastward, reaching from 31N58W to 25N70W by early Mon morning when fresh to strong SW winds and moderate to locally rough seas will continue to affect the NE waters. Meanwhile, another low pressure will reach the NW waters on Mon, and dissipate as it moves eastward toward Bermuda late on Tue. Looking ahead, a third low pressure area will move between northeast Florida and Bermuda Wed and Thu. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################