--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC100610_C_KWBC_20260610061129_32440682-2402-TWDAT.txt ****0000005269**** AXNT20 KNHC 100610 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jun 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W, S of 14N, moving west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 50W, S of 15N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W, S of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N16W and extends SW to 06N24W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 05N40W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 09W and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 31W and 57W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge associated with a 1021 mb high over northern Georgia extends southwestward across the north-central and eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure around TS Cristina and the eastern Pacific monsoon circulation is supporting moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds over the SE Gulf as well as the western half of the Gulf. Seas are 3-7 ft across these waters, with the highest seas of 5 to 7 ft being across the Yucatan adjacent waters and the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere in the NE Gulf, winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight. Otherwise, scattered to isolated showers are ongoing across the waters from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Panhandle and south of the Florida Big Bend. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the Gulf region the next few days, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh winds in the western Gulf through much of this week. Slight to moderate seas will also prevail. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will support fresh E winds pulsing to strong speeds during the evenings through Wed. A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu through Fri night, accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and T.S. Cristina in the Eastern Pacific offshore of Nicaragua supports moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas in the north-central and NW Caribbean W of 75W. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will strengthen slightly the next few days as high pressure moves into the W Atlantic, leading to widespread moderate to fresh trades with fresh to strong E winds in the south-central and NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. These conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N60W to 29N70W to 31N78W. Thunderstorms persist east of the southern Bahamas near the southern end of a surface pre-frontal trough extending from 30N55W to 22N65W. With these features, there is a weak pressure gradient over the SW N Atlantic waters, which is resulting in mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas, except for moderate winds and moderate seas to 5 ft in the vicinity of the front. The Azores High dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 17N. A strong pressure gradient between the High and lower pressure over NW Africa continue to support fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas N of 20N and E of 35W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere in the subtropical Atlantic. In the tropical Atlantic, the passage of two tropical waves is supporting moderate to fresh trades between 40W and the Lesser Antilles along with 7 to 8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, weak low pressure may form along the surface trough Wed near 25N65W, which will then dissipate through Thu as it moves to the northeast along with the trough. Meanwhile, the cold front will stall along 30N east of 75W through late Wed, then will shift northward Thu ahead of the weak low pressure. The Atlantic ridge will build across the region late Thu through Fri along roughly 25N. Looking ahead, this pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds north of Hispaniola at night from Fri night through Sun night. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC101652_C_KWBC_20260610165234_32440682-2444-TWDAT.txt ****0000005872**** AXNT20 KNHC 101652 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Jun 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 42W, S of 15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near this wave. The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W, S of 15N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed S of 10N between 53W and 58W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W, S of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N16W and extends SW to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 02N51W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is along and within 150 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 30W eastward. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within 100 nm of the remainder of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Moderate to fresh E to SE winds persist over the Gulf south of 25N, driven by the pressure gradient between a weak subtropical ridge and T.S. Cristina in the Eastern Pacific near the coast of El Salvador. Seas are 5-7 ft in the south-central Gulf, and 2-5 feet elsewhere. A surface trough is analyzed from the Bay of Campeche along the Mexican coast from near Veracruz to Tampico, and is supporting scattered moderate to strong convection. Another surface trough analyzed along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula supports scattered moderate convection near the Yucatan Channel. Lastly, another surface trough extending off the southern FL Peninsula supports scattered moderate convection in the FL Straits. For the forecast, a modest surface ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern and north- central Gulf into early next week. A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu night and then track slowly northwestward through the weekend. It will enhance the gradient with the surface ridge, causing fresh to strong SE winds across the south-central and northwestward Gulf. It will also trigger scattered to numerous thunderstorms and rough seas across the west-central Gulf into Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... At 1200 UTC, T.S. Cristina was located in the Eastern Pacific near the coast of El Salvador. A surface trough analyzed along the eastern Yucatan Peninsula is interacting with moisture from T.S. Cristina, and supports scattered moderate convection N of 15N and W of 80W to the coasts of Belize and Mexico, including the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is also ongoing in the SW Caribbean along the East Pacific monsoon trough. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and T.S. Cristina supports moderate to fresh winds with moderate seas from the central Caribbean to the northwest Caribbean. Winds are locally fresh to strong in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge of high pressure at the western Atlantic and T.S. Cristina in the Eastern Pacific offshore of El Salvador will sustain fresh to strong E to SE winds with moderate to rough seas from the south-central to northwestern Caribbean into early week. During the weekend, the high over the western Atlantic is expected to strengthen further, and cause fresh E trades to expand northward into the north- central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak 1017 mb low at 25N64W and surface trough extending from 31N56W through the low to 22N67W are helping to develop scattered moderate convection from 22N to 28N between 60W and 65W. To the northwest, a weak cold front is analyzed along 28-29N between 60W and 79W. Another surface trough extending off the southern FL Peninsula supports scattered moderate convection in the waters SW of the Bahamas and the FL Straits. These features are also helping to maintain a weaker pressure gradient across much of the Atlantic N of 20N and W of 40W, where gentle to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail, except for 1-3 ft seas from the Bahamas to the FL Straits. Ridging from the Azores high expands across the rest of the Atlantic, supporting moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the basin S of 20N. Scatterometer data indicates fresh to strong NE winds and 6-9 ft seas across areas N of 20N and E of 40W, with the strongest winds occurring in between the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, thunderstorms persist near a weak 1017 mb low pressure at 25N64W on the southern end of a surface trough extending to 31N56W. The low pressure will dissipate as it moves northeastward along the trough through Thu. Meanwhile, a weak frontal boundary currently between northeast Florida and Bermuda will shift northward Thu ahead of the weak low pressure. The Atlantic ridge will build across the region late Thu through Fri along roughly 25N. Looking ahead, this pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds north of Hispaniola at night from Fri night through Sun night. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC102116_C_KWBC_20260610211637_32440682-2468-TWDAT.txt ****0000004114**** AXNT20 KNHC 102116 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 44W, S of 15N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 42W and 47W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W, S of 15N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 10N between 53W and 60W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 63W, S of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 12N between 60W and 62W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 11N16W and extends SW to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 04N41W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 10W and 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is across the Yucatan Peninsula, supporting scattered moderate and isolated strong convection near the Yucatan Channel as well as over the Yucatan peninsula. Another surface trough is over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail across most of the Gulf, except 2-3 ft over the NE Gulf. For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the eastern and north- central Gulf into early next week. A trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche on Thu night and then track slowly northwestward through the weekend. This feature will enhance the pressure gradient, resulting in fresh to strong SE winds across the south-central and west- central Gulf. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms and rough seas are also expected across the same area into Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area, the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough, and broad low pressure around TD Cristina is supporting fresh to locally strong winds over central and western Caribbean. Seas over these waters are in the 4-7 ft range. Over the eastern Caribbean, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds with moderate to rough seas will prevail from the south-central to northwestern basin into early week. During the weekend, the high over the western Atlantic is expected to strengthen further, and cause fresh E trades to expand northward into the north-central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak frontal boundary extends from 31N59W across the northern waters to near 30N77W. A surface trough is found S of the front from 31N56W to 23N68W, with a weak 1017 mb surface low along the trough near 24N65W. Scattered moderate convection is NE of the low along the trough. High pressure prevails across the remainder of the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 39N28W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail over the waters N of 20N and W of 55W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are noted N of 20N and E of 23W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, The low will dissipate as it moves northeastward along the trough through Thu. The frontal boundary will shift northward Thu ahead of the weak low pressure. The Atlantic ridge will then build across the region late Thu through Fri along roughly 25N. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds north of Hispaniola at night from Fri night through Sun night. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################