--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-10-15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC150614_C_KWBC_20261015061506_21889468-5345-TWDAT.txt ****0000005150**** AXNT20 KNHC 150614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed near 46W, from 11N to 18N, moving westward near 10 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave. A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles near 59W, from 10N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between 54W and 58W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW to 07N25W to 05N34W where it transitions to the ITCZ which continues to 06N46W to 05N54W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 10N between 26W and 36W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 03N to 11N between 12W and 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A high pressure ridge extends from a 1018 mb high center that is over central Alabama southward to about 22N. Recent scatterometer data along with buoy observations reveal moderate to locally fresh east winds east of 90W, and moderate east to southeast winds west of 90W. Over the eastern Bay of Campeche, a surface trough is generating scattered showers and fresh to locally near gale force SE to E winds. Seas basin-wide are slight to moderate. Locally higher seas are likely with the convection associated with the trough offshore Yucatan. Otherwise, the remnants of a surface trough are supporting scattered showers in the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf late Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf trough Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low over the Yucatan and NW Caribbean are supporting isolated showers across the western half of the basin, except for scattered heavy showers and tstms lying behind a surface trough that extends from 12N81W to 20N81W. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong E to SE winds in the vicinity of this convective activity where seas to 8 ft are likely. Otherwise, surface ridging N of the region, is supporting moderate to fresh easterlies in the central Caribbean and moderate or weaker trades elsewhere. Seas are 3-4 ft over the NW and E basin, and 5 to 6 ft over the central and portions of the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming weekend, with rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Moisture associated with an uper-level trough over the central Caribbean will reach the NW Caribbean on Thu, keeping the chances of showers and thunderstorms across the basin. Gusty winds and rough seas will be associated with this convective activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface high pressure over the SE CONUS and NE of Bermuda support mainly light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas over the west and central subtropical Atlantic waters. Locally fresh easterly winds are ongoing in the Great Bahama Bank. Otherwise, the subtropical eastern Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High, which is generally supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds and moderate seas to 6 ft between the coast of NW Africa and 22W, including the waters adjacent to the Canary Islands. A 1013 mb low is located near 21N38W, which is generating scattered showers from 20N to 27N between 28W and 39W. Moderate to fresh winds are in the northern semicircle of the low to approximately 27N along with rough seas to 9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure E of the Bahamas is forecast to dissipate later today. A cold front will reach the NE waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC150945_C_KWBC_20261015094608_21889468-5360-TWDAT.txt ****0000005366**** AXNT20 KNHC 150945 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf late on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf trough Sun. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends SW to 05N53W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N53W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 11N and E of 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean is supporting showers across the western half of the basin. A high pressure ridge extends from a 1019 mb high center that is over the Florida Panhandle. Recent scatterometer data along with buoy observations reveal moderate to fresh east winds east of 90W, and moderate east to southeast winds west of 90W. Over the eastern Bay of Campeche, a surface trough is generating scattered showers and fresh to near gale force SE to E winds. Seas basin- wide are slight to moderate. Locally higher seas are likely with the convection associated with the trough offshore Yucatan. Otherwise, the remnants of a surface trough are supporting scattered showers in the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf late Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean are supporting isolated showers across the western half of the basin, except for scattered showers and tstms along a surface trough that extends from 13N81W to 20N81W. Recent scatterometer data show fresh to strong E to SE winds in the vicinity of this convective activity where seas to 8 ft are likely. Otherwise, surface ridging N of the region, is supporting moderate to fresh easterlies in the central Caribbean and moderate or weaker trades elsewhere. Seas are 3-4 ft over the NW and E basin, and 5 to 6 ft over the central and portions of the SW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming weekend, with rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Moisture associated with an uper-level trough over the central Caribbean will reach the NW Caribbean today, keeping the chances of showers and thunderstorms across the basin high. Gusty winds and rough seas will be associated with this convective activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed along 67W with scattered showers in its vicinity. Surface high pressure over the SE CONUS and NE of Bermuda support mainly light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas over the west and central subtropical Atlantic waters. Fresh easterly winds are ongoing in the Great Bahama Bank. Otherwise, the subtropical eastern Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High, which is generally supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds and moderate seas to 6 ft between the coast of NW Africa and 22W, including the waters adjacent to the Canary Islands. A 1011 mb low is located near 21N36W, which is generating scattered showers from 19N to 27N between 28W and 39W. Moderate to fresh winds are in the northern semicircle of the low to approximately 27N along with rough seas to 9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough E of the Bahamas is forecast to dissipate later today. A cold front will reach the NE waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC151605_C_KWBC_20261015160611_21889468-5388-TWDAT.txt ****0000005802**** AXNT20 KNHC 151605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW to 1008 mb low pressure captured by recent ASCAT scatterometer data at 06N33.5W to 03N39W. The ITCZ extends from 03N39W to the coast of northern South America at 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 14W and 25W. Similar convection is noted within 120 nm in the SE semicircle and 240 nm in the NW semicircle of the low. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean is supporting isolated to widely scattered showers across the southern half of the basin. A pair of weak surface troughs are analyzed in the SW Gulf with little impacts. Otherwise, broad ridging extends across the basin with moderate E-SE winds dominating. Seas are 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean are supporting isolated to widely scattered showers over the NW portion of the basin. A surface trough extends from 20N84W to eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua at 13N84W. These features support moderate isolated strong convection from 15N to 21N between 77W and 83W. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the S-central Caribbean with moderate to fresh elsewhere west of 68W, except gentle to moderate in the SW Caribbean S of 11N, and near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Seas are mainly 3 ft E of 68W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere except slight in the SW Caribbean and near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming weekend, with rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean today and tonight. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this convective activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal trough is in the central Atlantic extending from N of the area through 31N52W to 26N63W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 29N within 60-120 nm ahead of the trough. Moderate SW winds are across the same area with 6-8 ft seas. Recent ASCAT scatterometer data showed a 1013 mb low pressure off to the SE near 21N37W with a N to S oriented surface trough through the low. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 19N to 23N between 27W and 32W, and also from 22N to 26N between 33W and 40W. Moderate to fresh winds are found from 20N to 27N between 30W and 40W near the low and trough. Seas are 6-9 ft there. Seas are 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters E of 55W. Please refer to the ITCZ/monsoon trough section for additional convection with an embedded low in the monsoon trough. A broad and weak pressure pattern dominates the remainder of the basin. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the majority and rest of the basin, locally fresh from the SE Bahamas to the Windward Passage and NE Cuba, and S of 10N to the W of 55W near the coast of northern South America. Seas are 4-7 ft in N-NE swell N of 27N between 55W and 65W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere W of 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters through Fri. A cold front will reach the NE waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC151819_C_KWBC_20261015182012_21889468-5401-TWDAT.txt ****0000005802**** AXNT20 KNHC 151819 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW to 1008 mb low pressure captured by recent ASCAT scatterometer data at 06N33.5W to 03N39W. The ITCZ extends from 03N39W to the coast of northern South America at 05N52W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 14W and 25W. Similar convection is noted within 120 nm in the SE semicircle and 240 nm in the NW semicircle of the low. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean is supporting isolated to widely scattered showers across the southern half of the basin. A pair of weak surface troughs are analyzed in the SW Gulf with little impacts. Otherwise, broad ridging extends across the basin with moderate E-SE winds dominating. Seas are 1-3 ft in the NE Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through Fri producing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas. A cold front is forecast to enter the northwest Gulf on Fri, and reach from southwest Florida to the central Bay of Campeche by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front, with gales expected over the west-central Gulf by early Sat morning, and over the SW Gulf by early Sat afternoon. Rough to very rough seas are expected with the strongest winds. Gale conditions are forecast to persist over the SW Gulf through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low over Yucatan and NW Caribbean are supporting isolated to widely scattered showers over the NW portion of the basin. A surface trough extends from 20N84W to eastern Honduras and NE Nicaragua at 13N84W. These features support moderate isolated strong convection from 15N to 21N between 77W and 83W. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the S-central Caribbean with moderate to fresh elsewhere west of 68W, except gentle to moderate in the SW Caribbean S of 11N, and near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. Seas are mainly 3 ft E of 68W, and 3-6 ft elsewhere except slight in the SW Caribbean and near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras. For the forecast, high pressure N of area combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trade winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through the upcoming weekend, with rough seas offshore Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean today and tonight. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be associated with this convective activity. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal trough is in the central Atlantic extending from N of the area through 31N52W to 26N63W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 29N within 60-120 nm ahead of the trough. Moderate SW winds are across the same area with 6-8 ft seas. Recent ASCAT scatterometer data showed a 1013 mb low pressure off to the SE near 21N37W with a N to S oriented surface trough through the low. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 19N to 23N between 27W and 32W, and also from 22N to 26N between 33W and 40W. Moderate to fresh winds are found from 20N to 27N between 30W and 40W near the low and trough. Seas are 6-9 ft there. Seas are 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters E of 55W. Please refer to the ITCZ/monsoon trough section for additional convection with an embedded low in the monsoon trough. A broad and weak pressure pattern dominates the remainder of the basin. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the majority and rest of the basin, locally fresh from the SE Bahamas to the Windward Passage and NE Cuba, and S of 10N to the W of 55W near the coast of northern South America. Seas are 4-7 ft in N-NE swell N of 27N between 55W and 65W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere W of 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters through Fri. A cold front will reach the NE waters on Fri with little change in winds and seas. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################