--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-27 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC270613_C_KWBC_20260727061425_49676782-9386-TWDAT.txt ****0000004500**** AXNT20 KNHC 270613 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jul 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis just E of the Cape Verde Islands near 22W, extending from 08N to 18N, and moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 52W, extending from 09N to 21N, and moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 08N to 14N between 44W and 48W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 68W southward from 18N into Venezuela, and moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near the wave over the ocean. A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 78W from 18N southward to E Panama, and moving W at 15 kt. Only isolated showers are associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues to 10N44W. The ITCZ extends from 10N44W to 07N49W, and then resumes from 07N50W to 06N55W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 13N and between 25W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 26N90W and is supporting light to gentle variable winds, except along the northern Gulf coastal and immediate offshore waters where moderate winds are present. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are also ongoing in the Bay of Campeche associated with a surface trough that is coming off the Yucatan peninsula. Aside from the winds, the surface trough is generating scattered moderate convection where recent scatterometer data show a pocket of strong E winds. For the forecast, high pressure will meander about the central Gulf and weaken through Wed, leading to gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Pulsing fresh NE to E winds are likely each afternoon and evening along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Mon as a trough develops daily and drifts westward. Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms are expected to become active across the NE Gulf Wed afternoon through Thu as a frontal boundary sinks to just N of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the islands supports fresh trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft across the central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers are ongoing in the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western Atlantic ridge along 25N-26N and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central Caribbean S of 15N tonight, with fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras. The ridge will weaken and shift eastward Mon through Wed, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the central Caribbean into midweek. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across the central Caribbean starting Wed as the ridge builds again north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extending from a 1025 mb center of high pressure near 32N41W extends across the Bahamas offshore waters. To the N of 27N and west of 73W, scattered moderate convection and tstms are occuring ahead of a cold front. Winds ahead of the front are moderate to fresh from the SW extending to 63W and N of 27N. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure and associated ridge in the Western Atlantic will drift eastward and weaken slightly Mon through Wed. Expect fresh to strong SW winds and moderate to rough seas across the northern waters, mainly N of 29N, most of the week as sinking frontal boundaries remain just to the north of area. The Atlantic ridge will building modestly westward and into the central Bahamas Wed through Fri. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC270615_C_KWBC_20260727061638_47448518-9374-TWDAT.txt ****0000004449**** AXNT20 KNHC 270615 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jul 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic with axis just E of the Cape Verde Islands near 22W, extending from 08N to 18N, and moving W at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted near the wave. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 52W, extending from 09N to 21N, and moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 08N to 14N between 44W and 48W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 68W southward from 18N into Venezuela, and moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near the wave over the ocean. A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 78W from 18N southward to E Panama, and moving W at 15 kt. Only isolated showers are associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N16W and continues to 11N16W to 10N41W. The ITCZ extends from 10N41W to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 12N and between 27W and 37W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 26N90W and is supporting light to gentle variable winds, except along the northern Gulf coastal and immediate offshore waters where moderate winds are present. Moderate to locally fresh E winds are also ongoing in the Bay of Campeche associated with a surface trough that is coming off the Yucatan peninsula. Aside from the winds, the surface trough is generating scattered moderate convection where recent scatterometer data show a pocket of strong E winds. For the forecast, high pressure will meander about the central Gulf and weaken through Wed, leading to gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Pulsing fresh NE to E winds are likely each afternoon and evening along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Mon as a trough develops daily and drifts westward. Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms are expected to become active across the NE Gulf Wed afternoon through Thu as a frontal boundary sinks to just N of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the islands supports fresh trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft across the central Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers are ongoing in the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western Atlantic ridge along 25N-26N and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas across the south-central Caribbean S of 15N tonight, with fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras. The ridge will weaken and shift eastward Mon through Wed, allowing winds and seas to diminish over the central Caribbean into midweek. Looking ahead, winds and seas will increase again across the central Caribbean starting Wed as the ridge builds again north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extending from a 1025 mb center of high pressure near 32N41W extends across the Bahamas offshore waters. To the N of 27N and west of 73W, scattered moderate convection and tstms are occuring ahead of a cold front. Winds ahead of the front are moderate to fresh from the SW extending to 63W and N of 27N. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure and associated ridge in the Western Atlantic will drift eastward and weaken slightly Mon through Wed. Expect fresh to strong SW winds and moderate to rough seas across the northern waters, mainly N of 29N, most of the week as sinking frontal boundaries remain just to the north of area. The Atlantic ridge will building modestly westward and into the central Bahamas Wed through Fri. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################