--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-07-06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC060246_C_KWBC_20260706024727_9109880-7607-TWDAT.txt ****0000005116**** AXNT20 KNHC 060246 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Jul 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 31W S of 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. An Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W and S of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. An Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W south of 19N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the southern half of the wave S of 10N. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W, south of 19N, moving W at at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 11N to 20N between 78W and 86W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W to 10N20W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 10N21W to 08N30W, from 05N32W to 07N38W, from 07N39W to 08N47W, and from 08N49W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm on either side of the ITCZ and W of 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... 1016 mb high pressure is centered over the central Gulf near 26N88W. A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Peninsula into the Yucatan Channel. Another trough extends from the western Florida Panhandle to south of Apalachicola, Florida. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are active near these troughs across the eastern Gulf and over the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh NW winds are possible off the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle to moderate breezes are evident elsewhere. Seas are 1-3 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, surface ridging is forecast to prevail across the basin through the forecast period, thus supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western half of the Gulf, except for locally fresh to strong ENE winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night. Locally moderate or weaker winds are forecast for the eastern half of the Gulf while mainly slight seas are forecast basin-wide. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge extending north of the area across the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong E winds noted off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5-8 ft over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere except 1-3 ft in the far northwest Caribbean. A mid to upper level trough extends from the western Atlantic across eastern Cuba and Jamaica, and toward Nicaragua. Upper level divergent flow along with convergent lower level trade wind flow is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the northwest Caribbean between Honduras and Jamaica. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through the weekend. The aerial extent of these winds will increase tonight into Mon as the Atlantic ridge continues to build westward. By Wed, the fresh to strong winds are expected to extend across most of the east, central and SW Caribbean. Expect winds to reach near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela from tonight through Fri. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are forecast at night through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic north of 20N, and is anchored by 1026 mb high pressure centered near 29N39W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along a surface trough analyzed from 31N53W to 29N72W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas along and west of the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas east and south of the ridge axis. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will stay in place through the forecast period, developing a center of high pressure E of the Bahamas by Fri. This pattern will continue to support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 23N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds, with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, through Fri night. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC060942_C_KWBC_20260706094230_9109880-7637-TWDAT.txt ****0000005241**** AXNT20 KNHC 060942 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Jul 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 33W S of 17N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. An Atlantic tropical wave is near 41W and S of 18N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. An Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W south of 19N, moving W at around 15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section below. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W, south of 19N, moving W at at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 09N to 20N between 80W and 87W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W to 10N20W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 10N22W to 08N32W, from 06N33W to 06N40W, from 07N42W to 07N50W, and from 07N52W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm on either side of the ITCZ and west of 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The subtropical ridge extends across the Florida Peninsula and across the northern Gulf to the coast of Texas. A surface trough reaches from Mobile Bay, Alabama to Tampa, Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off the western Florida Panhandle along this trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active over the southeast Gulf, under divergent flow aloft. Farther south, a weak trough is positioned over the Bay of Campeche. This pattern is supporting fresh NE winds off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, as noted in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Gentle to moderate breezes are observed elsewhere. Seas are generally 1-3 ft across the basin. For the forecast, surface ridging is forecast to prevail across the basin through the forecast period, thus supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western half of the Gulf, except for locally fresh to strong ENE winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night. Locally moderate or weaker winds are forecast for the eastern half of the Gulf while mainly slight seas are forecast basin-wide. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge extending north of the area across the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong E winds noted off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela. Seas are 7-10 ft over the south-central Caribbean in the area of strongest trade winds, and 6-7 ft elsewhere east of 80W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong easterly winds across the Gulf of Honduras, likely related to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms active in that area, associated with divergent flow aloft on the east side of an upper low centered over the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas across the Gulf of Honduras are 4-6 ft, and 2-4 ft elsewhere over the northwest Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through the weekend. The aerial extent of these winds will continue to increase today as the Atlantic ridge continues to build westward. By Wed, the fresh to strong winds are expected to extend across most of the east, central and SW Caribbean. Expect winds to reach near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Fri. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to locally strong E to SE winds are forecast at night through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic north of 20N, and is anchored by 1025 mb high pressure centered near 29N39W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas along and west of the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 5-7 ft seas east and south of the ridge axis. Upper divergent flow is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms from 25N to 30N 45W and 70W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will stay in place through the forecast period, developing a center of high pressure E of the Bahamas by Fri. This pattern will continue to support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 23N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Locally strong winds, with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, through Fri night. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC061629_C_KWBC_20260706163011_32440682-4615-TWDAT.txt ****0000004826**** AXNT20 KNHC 061629 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Jul 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed near 39W, S of 18N. This is an adjustment from previous analyses and combined two analyzed wave to better reflect current and forecast conditions. The combined wave is moving W at 10 kt, and is inducing scattered moderate convection from 05N to 10N between 33W and 43W. An Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W, S of 17N, moving W at around 20N. Scattered moderate convection associated with this wave is noted S of 12N between 51W and 59W. A Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 81W, south of 18N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 15N and W of 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N17W and continues to 11N19. The ITCZ stretches from 09N22W to 07N33W and from 07N41W to 07N53W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, described above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the segment of the ITCZ that extends from 22W to 33W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Subtropical ridging continues to be the dominant feature over the basin, with the axis extending into the central Gulf from the east. A surface trough that extends from near Tampa Bay to Mobile Bay is generating scattered moderate convection across the northern Gulf. Winds are moderate or weaker, mainly anticyclonic, through the basin, with generally slight seas, with the except of some 3 to 5 ft seas in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the basin through the forecast period, thus supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western half of the Gulf, except for fresh to strong ENE winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast for the eastern half of the Gulf while slight seas are forecast basin-wide. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure over northern South America continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin, with moderate to fresh E winds elsewhere. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are present in the central basin, with slight seas in the NW basin, and 5 to 7 ft seas elsewhere. Convection in the far SW basin is associated with a tropical wave and is described in the above section. Scattered moderate convection is noted between the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, being induced by upper-level divergence. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through the week. The aerial extent of these winds will continue to increase today as the Atlantic ridge continues to build westward. By Wed, the fresh to strong winds are expected to extend across most of the east, central and SW Caribbean. Expect winds to reach near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Fri. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast at night through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic north of 20N, and is anchored by 1026 mb high pressure centered near 29N39W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas for waters N of 22N, with mainly fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas to the south. Upper level divergence to the east of a trough aloft is leading to scattered moderate convection N of 23N and W of 65W, including in the vicinity of the Bahamas. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will stay in place through the forecast period, developing a center of high pressure E of the Bahamas by Fri. This pattern will continue to support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 23N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Strong winds, with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, through Fri night $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC062153_C_KWBC_20260706215414_32440682-4632-TWDAT.txt ****0000005513**** AXNT20 KNHC 062153 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Jul 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed near 42W, S of 17N moving quickly westward at 20-25 kt. Any nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ in the section below. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed near 57W, S of 16N to along the border of Guyana and Suriname, moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ in the section below. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is near 83W, S of 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ in the section below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends across portions of Mauritania just offshore into the Atlantic Ocean from 17.5N16W to near 14.5N19W. The ITCZ extends from well S of the Cabo Verde Islands near 09N25W to 07N40W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 07.5N46W to 07N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from approximately 03N to 12N between 36W and 59W. Similar convection is noted within 210 nm SW of the coast of Africa between 11W and 19W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Subtropical ridging continues to be the dominant feature over the basin, with the axis extending into the central Gulf from the east. A surface trough that extends from near Apalachee Bay, Florida into the N-central Gulf near 28N90W is supporting some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms just off the coast of the Florida Panhandle. Isolated activity can be found across portions of the remainder of the Gulf in a moist summer-time pattern. Winds are moderate or weaker, mainly anticyclonic, throughout the basin, with generally slight seas, locally moderate seas in the central Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the basin through the forecast period, thus supporting gentle to moderate winds over the western half of the Gulf, except for fresh to strong ENE winds offshore the Yucatan peninsula at night. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast for the eastern half of the Gulf while slight seas are forecast basin-wide. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressure over northern South America continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central basin, with moderate to fresh E winds elsewhere, except weaker in the NW Caribbean N of 20N. Seas of 7-11 ft are present in the central basin, with slight seas in the NW basin, and 4-7 ft seas elsewhere. Convection in the western Caribbean is mainly associated with a tropical wave and is described in the above section. Scattered moderate convection is noted between the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, being induced by upper-level divergence. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through the week. The aerial extent of these winds will continue to increase through midweek as the Atlantic ridge continues to build westward. By Wed, the fresh to strong winds are expected to extend across most of the east, central and SW Caribbean. Expect winds to reach near-gale force at night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Fri. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where fresh to strong E to SE winds are forecast at night through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic N of 20N, and is anchored by 1026 mb high pressure centered near 29N39W. The pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas for waters N of 22N and W of 20W, slightly higher seas E of 40W, with mainly fresh trades and 5-7 ft seas to the S of 22N. Upper level divergence to the east of a trough aloft is leading to scattered moderate convection N of 22N and W of 63W, including in the vicinity of the Bahamas. A surface trough N of 31N in the central Atlantic supports some similar activity across the discussion waters N of 27N between 43W and 63W. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are found from 19N to the Canary and Madeira Islands between Africa and 24W due to the normally tight pressure gradient found across that region, where seas are also locally rough. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will stay in place through the forecast period. This pattern will continue to support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds S of 23N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Strong winds, with moderate to rough seas are expected at night north of Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage, through Fri night. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################