--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-05-16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC160528_C_KWBC_20260516052858_32440682-308-TWDAT.txt ****0000004352**** AXNT20 KNHC 160528 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat May 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0527 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 36.5W, from 12.5N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01S to 06N between 34W and 41W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 60.5W, from 14N southward into the Venezuela and Guyana border, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen across Guyana. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to 01N27W. An ITCZ continues from 01N27W to 01S34W, then westward from 0.5S38W to near 00N47W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present near and south of the monsoon trough from 01S to 10N and east of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1017 mb high over the the NE Gulf to the western Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 2 ft are present the eastern half of the Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh NE to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted off northern Yucatan Peninsula, and the coast of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate through early next week. As low pressure deepens over Texas, the pressure gradient will tighten and SE winds will increase to fresh over the western Gulf this weekend, then continue through early next week. A diurnal trough moving NW off the Yucatan Peninsula may cause strong winds to pulse each evening offshore. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge near 21N and a 1006 mb low near the Colombia-Venezuela border is sustaining fresh to strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas at the south- central basin. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are evident at the northwestern and waters. Moderate to fresh E winds with 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian Low will support strong trades across the central Caribbean, with near-gale force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras into Tue. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters. Large W swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters through Mon, then begin to subside. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough stretches southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N65W to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted, north of 26.5N between 56W and 66W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present near the trough itself, including the central Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and TROPICAL WAVES sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found near the trough, north of 28N between 55W and 66W. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1035 mb Azores High to near the southeast Bahamas is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft north of 27N between 42W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the Atlantic waters from 05N to 27N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, mainly fresh NE to E winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft seas prevail. East of 35W, mainly fresh N to NE winds along with seas 6 to 9 ft prevail, except for strong NE winds of the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, mainly tranquil marine conditions with moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail through early next week. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC161007_C_KWBC_20260516100901_32440682-321-TWDAT.txt ****0000003889**** AXNT20 KNHC 161007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat May 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W, from 12N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Convection previously associated with this wave has waned overnight. An Atlantic tropical wave is crossing the Windward Islands this morning along 62W, from 13N southward into Venezuela, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly inland over Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to 01N30W. The ITCZ is noted from 01N40W to 01N47W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present along and S of the monsoon trough E of 24W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Ridging anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure centered just offshore the Carolinas is dominating the basin, with weak diurnal troughs along the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche. Fresh SE winds are E of the trough in the Bay of Campeche, and also in the NW Gulf within 90 nm of the coast. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 2 to 5 ft in the western basin, and 2 ft or less in the east. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate into the middle of next week. With the high pressure centered NE of the region and lower pressure over Texas, the pressure gradient will support fresh SE winds over the western Gulf through early next week. Evening pulses of strong winds are expected to move offshore the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge oriented along 31N and a 1008 mb low over far northern Colombia is sustaining strong NE to E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas in the central basin. Mainly fresh winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean, except for gentle to moderate E winds with slight seas in the NW basin. Scattered moderate convection has developed within 90 nm of the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua due to converging low-level winds and the influence of the East Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian Low will support strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Tue, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters into Mon night, then begin to subside. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak surface trough extends from near 31N62W to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate to strong convection has increased in coverage overnight in association with this trough in the vicinity of the central Bahamas. N of 30N between 52W and 62W, moderate SW winds are ahead of the trough. Otherwise, much of the basin is dominated by a 1031 mb Azores high. This is leading to widespread moderate to fresh easterly winds, with moderate seas. S of 21N, rough seas in a mix of wind waves and easterly swell prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will dissipate today, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place into the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh east winds and mainly moderate seas will prevail. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC161722_C_KWBC_20260516172239_9109880-3358-TWDAT.txt ****0000003967**** AXNT20 KNHC 161722 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat May 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An central Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated to near 43W, from 12N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are along the south end of the wave axis. An Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated to near 65W, from 18N southward into central Venezuela. This wave is moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to 01N38W. No ITCZ is analyzed at this time. Scattered moderate convection is present along and S of the monsoon trough E of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Surface ridging is dominating the basin, with weak diurnal troughs along the Florida Peninsula and in the Bay of Campeche. Fresh SE winds are E of the trough in the Bay of Campeche, and also in the NW Gulf within 90 nm of the coast. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 2 to 5 ft in the western basin, and 3 ft or less in the east. For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the western Atlantic to the northern Gulf into the middle of next week. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds over the northwest Gulf into early next week between the high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico. Also expect fresh to occasionally strong wind pulses off the northwest Yucatan peninsula during the evenings into next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between a broad surface ridge N of the region and a 1008 mb low over far northern Colombia is sustaining strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the central to SW basin. Mainly fresh winds with 5 to 8 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the central to eastern Caribbean with gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas in the NW basin. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection has developed within 90 nm of the coasts of Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua due to converging low-level winds and the influence of the East Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will support strong trades across the central Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras into Tue, with moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the forecast waters. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical Atlantic waters into Mon night, then begin to subside. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near 31N62W to the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along much of this trough. Moderate NE winds prevail north of the trough with gentle to moderate SE to S winds south and east of the trough to about 60W. Otherwise, much of the basin is dominated by ridging stemming from high pressure north of the region. This is leading to widespread moderate to fresh easterly winds, with moderate seas. S of 12N and W of 40W, rough seas in a mix of wind waves and easterly swell prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support fresh trade winds and occasionally rough seas with E swell into Sun. A weak trough extending from 31N62W to the Bahamas will weaken today, leaving tranquil marine conditions in place elsewhere into the middle of next week. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################