--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-03-16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC160425_C_KWBC_20260316042609_29294990-9896-TWDAT.txt ****0000004857**** AXNT20 KNHC 160425 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Mar 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Storm Warning: A strong cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf tonight, then move southeastward across the Gulf through Mon night. Widespread strong to near-gale northerly winds will follow the front, peaking to gale-force off coast of Texas tonight through early Mon morning. Expect strong gales off the Mexican coast between Tampico and Veracruz Mon, with frequent gusts to storm force at times. Seas will peak to 15 ft with the strongest winds. Both winds and seas should gradually subside from north to south starting Mon evening. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N16W and continues to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues from 07N22W to 04S38W. Scattered showers prevail along the ITCZ. GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for information on a storm warning. Moderate to fresh SW to S return flow prevails along the western edge of the subtropical Atlantic ridge, with locally strong winds noted in the far NW Gulf off the coast of Texas. Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite along and west of a trough reaching from the Yucatan Channel to just southwest of Apalachicola, Florida. For the forecast, aside from the storm and gale warnings described above, the front will move southeastward away from the Gulf late Mon night through Tue, and conditions in the Gulf will gradually improve from north to south. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region into midweek. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure continues to build in the central Atlantic and reaching the Caribbean basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds across the eastern half of the basin, while moderate to fresh E winds are noted W of 73W. The exception is in the offshore waters N of Colombia, where strong winds are currently pulsing with rough seas. Another area of rough seas is moving across the far eastern Caribbean, mainly E of 64W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, strong high pressure at the north Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the waters near the Lesser Antilles, and the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Atlantic exposures and Passages through Tue. On Tue evening, a cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of America. Then, it will slow down and possibly stall from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by early Wed morning. This should allow winds and seas across the central and eastern Caribbean to gradually subside through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive subtropical Atlantic high pressure extends across much of the basin. Fresh to strong trades prevail south of 25N and west of 50W, including between the islands of the Lesser Antilles. The persistent strong trades have built seas of 8-10 ft in E swell within an area from the equator north to 22N between 45W and 65W. Another area of fresh to strong trades is in the far eastern Atlantic near the Canary Islands, where seas are 8-9 ft. Elsewhere, trades are moderate or weaker and seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge will continue to support fresh to strong winds and rough seas south of 25N, including the southeast Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank through Tue. By Tue evening, the ridge will retreat eastward in response to the cold front moving off the U.S. southeastern coast. This front will slow down and stall from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba on Wed. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will develop north of 28N starting this evening ahead of the front. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front through early Tue. The front will remain nearly stationary through Thu. At the same time, a low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary and move quickly northeastward. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################