--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-03-31 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC310554_C_KWBC_20260331055531_49676782-217-TWDAT.txt ****0000005434**** AXNT20 KNHC 310554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Mar 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning and Large Swell: A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N46W to near 30N48W, then continues as a stationary front to 23N62W. A shear line curves westward from 23N62W to over the central Bahamas. Latest satellite scatterometer data reveal near- gale to gale-force NE winds north of this boundary from 26N to 30N between 50W and 58W. These winds are expected to decrease and become strong to near gale-force after midnight tonight as this frontal boundary gradually weakens. Large, long-period northerly swell is maintaining seas at 12 to 18 ft up to 450 nm northwest of this boundary. This northerly swell will steadily decline over the next couple of days, allowing seas to gradually subside, possibly dropping below 12 ft on Wed evening. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the following websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Gambia, then reaches southwestward to near 01N28W. An ITCZ continues from 01N28W across 00N34W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 06N between 10W and 21W, and near the ITCZ and rest of the monsoon trough from 02S to 04N between 21W and 31W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present across the Florida Straits, north of the Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate the Gulf most of this week. Expect moderate to fresh E to SE winds for the eastern Gulf through Sat night. Over the western Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for locally strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night. Slight to moderate seas will prevail for the entire Gulf into the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A robust trade-wind regime continues across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are seen at the south-central basin, in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic, and near the Windward Passage. Seas range from 8 to 10 ft at the south-central basin, 7 to 9 ft near the Windward Passage, and 4 to 6 ft in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic. Mainly moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Sat night, pulsing to near gale-force at night through midweek. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for more information about a gale warning, and large swell. A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N46W to near 30N48W, then continues as a stationary front to 23N62W. A shear line curves westward from 23N62W to over the central Bahamas. Scattered showers are found near and up to 220 nm northwest of the fronts. Patchy showers are noted near and up to 100 nm north of the shear line. A pre-frontal trough is triggering similar conditions north of 25N between 44W and 48W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the gale winds and very rough seas mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are evident behind the frontal boundary and shear line, except moderate to fresh E to SE winds with 6 to 8 ft north of 27N between 75W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Farther southeast, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 11 ft in large N swell exist from 18N to the stationary front between 57W and the southeast Bahamas. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold/stationary front will dissipate on Tue. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front should keep fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas across most of the western Atlantic for the second half of the week. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC311015_C_KWBC_20260331101633_49676782-232-TWDAT.txt ****0000004600**** AXNT20 KNHC 311015 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Mar 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Large Swell: A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N46W to 23N63W. A shear line curves westward from 23N63W to 24N78W. Near-gale NE winds prevail in the vicinity of the front. These winds will continue to weaken as the front dissipates gradually today. Large, long-period northerly swell is maintaining seas at 12 to 18 ft up to 450 nm northwest of the boundary. This northerly swell will steadily decline over the next couple of days, allowing seas to gradually subside, possibly dropping below 12 ft on Wed evening. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtm for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W to 02N28W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N between 22W-33W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge extends southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present across the Florida Straits, north of the Yucatan Peninsula and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the E Gulf through Sat night. Over the western half of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A robust trade-wind regime continues across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds are seen at the south-central basin, in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic, and near the Windward Passage. Seas range from 8 to 11 ft at the south-central basin, up to 8 ft near the Windward Passage, and 4 to 6 ft in the lee of Cuba and the Dominican Republic. Mainly moderate NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through the forecast period, pulsing to near gale at night through midweek. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for more information about the large swell. A stationary front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N46W to 23N63W. A shear line curves westward from 23N63W to over the central Bahamas. Scattered showers are found near and up to 220 nm northwest of the front. A pre- frontal trough is triggering similar conditions north of 25N between 45W and 49W. Outside of the very rough seas mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are evident behind the frontal boundary and shear line, except moderate to fresh E to SE winds with 6 to 8 ft north of 25N between 78W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Farther southeast, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 7 to 11 ft in large N swell exist from 18N to the stationary front between 57W and the southeast Bahamas. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will dissipate on Tue. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front should keep fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas across most of the western Atlantic for the second half of the week. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC311420_C_KWBC_20260331142039_38666572-227-TWDAT.txt ****0000005247**** AXNT20 KNHC 311420 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Mar 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Large Swell: A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N45W to 25N57W. A shear line curves westward from 25N57W to off northern Hispaniola. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that near-gale NE winds, up to 30 kt, prevail in the vicinity of the front. These winds will continue to weaken as the front dissipates gradually today. Large, long-period northerly swell is maintaining seas at 12 to 16 ft up behind the boundary to 69W. Seas to 8 ft extends within 200 nm east of the front and also between 69W and 77W. This northerly swell will steadily decline over the next couple of days, allowing seas to gradually subside, possibly dropping below 12 ft on Wed evening. However, rough to locally very rough seas will prevail through possibly early next week. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtm for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 02N13W to 00N33W and to 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N and between 15W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas east of 90W. Gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas are prevalent west of 90W. Convergent low-level winds sustain a few showers south of SE Louisiana and in the SW Gulf waters, with generally dry weather conditions dominating the rest of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the E Gulf through Sat night. Over the western half of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The strong high pressure system north of the islands supports fresh to strong easterly winds off southern Hispaniola and Windward Passage, along with seas of 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are occurring in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident in the NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. Pockets of low-level moisture traverse the Caribbean waters, producing isolated, fast- moving showers. The strongest convection is seen off Costa Rica. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through the forecast period, pulsing to near gale at night through midweek. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu nigh. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for more information about the large swell. A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N45W and continues southwestward to 25N57W, where it transitions into a shear line to just off northern Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 90 nm of these boundaries. The strong pressure gradient between the robust ridge to the north and the lower pressures associated with the front and shear line sustain fresh to near gale-force NE-E winds over much of the SW North Atlantic waters behind the front and shear line. Please see the Special Features section for info about the swell producing rough to very rough seas. A large plume of Saharan dust envelops the far NE Atlantic, especially north of 22N and east of 20W. Mariners in these waters should use caution due to reduced visibility. The central and eastern Atlantic are under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas are found north of 22N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, near gale force NE winds will prevail in the vicinity of the aforementioned front today. The front will dissipate by Tue. Strong high pressure is building in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas, are expected across most of the offshore forecast waters the second half of the week. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC312222_C_KWBC_20260331222304_9109880-302-TWDAT.txt ****0000004804**** AXNT20 KNHC 312222 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Apr 01 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Large Swell: A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N45W to 25N57W. A shear line curves westward from 25N57W to off northern Hispaniola. A broad area of strong NE winds is noted N of this boundary, impacting most waters between 70W and the front. Waves from these winds combined with significant northerly swell is leading to very rough seas of up to 16 ft in a zone from 21N to 30N between 50W and 68W. Rough seas cover waters N of 19N between 40W and the Bahamas. The swell should gradually decay over the next couple of days, with seas likely falling below 12 ft by Wed night. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtm for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to Africa. The ITCZ extends from 02N14W to 00N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N and between 14W and 28W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the eastern Gulf waters, supporting mainly moderate SE winds and seas. Fresh E winds have developed offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula in association with a surface trough over the peninsula and also through the Florida Straits and offshore western Cuba, where the pressure gradient is slightly tighter. Convergent low- level winds in the north-central basin has induced scattered moderate convection N of 25N between 87W and 91W. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the E Gulf through Sat night. Over the western half of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night. A cold front may enter the western Gulf Sunday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between high pressure centered near Bermuda and lower pressure over South America is maintain moderate to fresh trades over the basin, with strong NE to E winds through the Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and offshore Colombia. Locally rough seas are present in each of these areas, as well as through Atlantic passages, where N swell is propagating through. Previous convection over the Caribbean has mostly dissipated early this evening. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through the forecast period, pulsing to near gale at night through midweek. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu nigh. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for information about the large swell. A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N45W and continues southwestward to 25N57W, where it transitions into a shear line to just off northern Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of these boundaries. Please see the Special Features section above for details on the winds and seas in association with this front. A large plume of Saharan dust envelops the far NE Atlantic, especially north of 22N and east of 20W. Mariners in these waters should use caution due to reduced visibility. The central and eastern Atlantic are under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge. Fresh easterly winds and rough seas are found north of 22N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas, are expected across most of the offshore forecast waters through the remainder of the week. Winds will diminish this weekend with seas slowly subsiding. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################