--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-08-23 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC230358_C_KWBC_20260823035924_4522426-1363-TWDAT.txt ****0000005742**** AXNT20 KNHC 230358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 30W south of 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 05N to 10N between 28W and 35W. Another tropical wave has its axis along 50W south of 19N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant convection is noted with this feature at this time. A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles, with axis along 62W south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis at this time. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 84W south of 21N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over parts of Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 20N17W and continues southwestward to 07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 07N45W. Aside from the convection described in the section above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, a surface ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters, anchored by 1018 mb high pressure located near 25N95W. This pattern is supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas, except for gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas over the Bay of Campeche east of the trough in that area. For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over the basin into late next week, leading to gentle to moderate winds and generally slight seas. A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings, which will pressure further offshore through the Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south- central Caribbean. Seas up to 8 ft are with these trades as noted in recent altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh to strong trades and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. A weak tropical wave just west of the Lesser Antilles will move across the basin during the upcoming week. Another weak tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Mon night and reach the western part of the basin late in the week. Yet, another tropical wave may approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on Wed and move across the eastern Caribbean Thu and Thu night. The gradient associated with these waves will lead to periods of enhanced winds after their passages. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1020 mb high pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda near 28N74W dominates the western Atlantic west of 60W. A surface trough extends from 31N79W to 24N79W. Showers and thunderstorms are associated with this trough. Satellite derived wind data indicate mainly gentle to moderate winds on either side of the trough axis. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted off Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including approaches to the Windward Passage. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere W of 60W. Farther east, a weak 1018 mb low pressure is located near 30N59W. A trough extends from the low center to near 28N61W based on scatterometer data. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are ahead of these features. The remainder of the forecast area in under the influence of broad 1028 mb high pressure centered north of the region near 35N42W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas across the basin, with the exception of fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas from 19N to 23N E of 22W to the coasts of Mauritania and Western Sahara. A cold front is approaching the Madeira Islands. Some shower activity is along the frontal boundary. For the forecast west of 55W, the low will drift westward on Sun, then accelerate northward early next week. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of 23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC231046_C_KWBC_20260823104710_31523192-1539-TWDAT.txt ****0000006920**** AXNT20 KNHC 231046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W south of 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm west of the southern portion of the wave axis from 05N to 09N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W south of 20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern portion of the wave from 18N to 20N between the wave and 48W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 63W south of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm east of the wave axis from 12N to 16N, including over some sections of the Lesser Antilles. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 85W south of 21N, and is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers are near the wave axis. To the south over the far southwestern section of the basin, numerous strong convection is just offshore Costa Rica and northern Panama. Some of this activity extends inland northern Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 12N23W and west-southwestward to 08N32W and to 07N40W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 10N48W. Aside from the convection described in the section above, scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 19W-21W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1017 mb high center over the west-central Gulf is generally allowing for gentle to moderate winds. Slight seas are present throughout the basin per buoy observations and a couple of overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain quite active over the Yucatan Peninsula and over southeastern Mexico. Abundant upper moisture from the eastern Pacific is advecting eastward over southern Mexico, the southwestern Gulf and toward the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the high pressure will remain centered over central Gulf through midweek generally maintaining gentle to moderate winds and generally slight seas. Atlantic high pressure will then build westward into the central Gulf afterward. A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. The trough will push further offshore through the Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south- central Caribbean. Seas up to 8 ft are with these trades as detected in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the central part of the basin from 13N to 19N between 68W and 70W and over the waters between Jamaica and Haiti, reaching to the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between the western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. A weak tropical wave over the far eastern Caribbean near 63W will move across the basin during the upcoming week. Another weak tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Mon night and reach the western part of the basin late in the week. Yet, another tropical wave may approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on Wed, then move across the eastern Caribbean Thu and Thu night. The gradient associated with these waves will lead to periods of enhanced winds after their passages. Scattered showers and thunderstorms near these waves may be capable of producing strong gusty winds. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure is over the majority of the Atlantic waters. It is on the weak side over the western half of the basin. A 1019 mb high center is analyzed near 29N70W. To its east, a surface trough extends from near 31N58.5W to a weak 1018 mb low pressure at 30N59W, and continues from the low pressure to 27N61W. This system is part of a broad low pressure area that is located a few hundred nautical miles SE of Bermuda. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present N of 24N betwen 55W and 63W. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are east of the trough to near 50W while light and variable winds are west of the trough to near 73W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft west of about 50W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad 1027 mb high pressure that is analyzed N of he region at 36N42.5W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining moderate to fresh northeast to east winds from 10N to 25N east of 50W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A cold front extends from near 31N17W to 30N45W, and extends northwestward from there to 33N35W. Broken to overcast low to mid-level clouds along with possible isolated showers are along and near the frontal boundary. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure SE of Bermuda will drift westward on Sun, then accelerate northward early next week. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of 23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC231053_C_KWBC_20260823105427_4522426-1384-TWDAT.txt ****0000006960**** AXNT20 KNHC 231053 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1045 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W south of 19N moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 240 nm west of the southern portion of the wave axis from 05N to 09N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W south of 20N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern portion of the wave from 18N to 20N between the wave and 48W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 63W south of 20N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm east of the wave axis from 12N to 16N, including over some sections of the Lesser Antilles. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 85W south of 21N, and is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers are near the wave axis. To the south over the far southwestern section of the basin, numerous strong convection is just offshore Costa Rica and northern Panama. Some of this activity extends inland northern Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 12N23W and west-southwestward to 08N32W and to 07N40W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to near 10N48W. Aside from the convection described in the section above, scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 19W-21W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1017 mb high center over the west-central Gulf, is generally allowing for gentle to moderate winds. Slight seas are present throughout the basin per buoy observations and a couple of overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain quite active over the Yucatan Peninsula and over southeastern Mexico. Abundant upper moisture from the eastern Pacific is advecting eastward over southern Mexico, the southwestern Gulf and toward the Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, the high pressure will remain centered over central Gulf through midweek generally maintaining gentle to moderate winds and generally slight seas. Atlantic high pressure will then build westward into the central Gulf afterward. A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. The trough will push further offshore through the Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong trades primarily over the south- central Caribbean. Seas up to 8 ft are with these trades as detected in overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except over the northwestern part of the Caribbean, where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are present. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the central part of the basin from 13N to 19N between 68W and 70W, and over the waters between Jamaica and Haiti, reaching to the Windward Passage. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient between the western Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through next week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. A weak tropical wave over the far eastern Caribbean near 63W will move across the basin during the upcoming week. Another weak tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean Mon night and reach the western part of the basin late in the week. Yet, another tropical wave may approach the Lesser Antilles and far eastern Caribbean late on Wed, then move across the eastern Caribbean Thu and Thu night. The gradient associated with these waves will lead to periods of enhanced winds after their passages. Scattered showers and thunderstorms near these waves may be capable of producing strong gusty winds. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure is over the majority of the Atlantic waters. It is on the weak side over the western half of the basin. A 1019 mb high center is analyzed near 29N70W. To its east, a surface trough extends from near 31N58.5W to a weak 1018 mb low pressure at 30N59W, and continues from the low pressure to 27N61W. This system is part of a broad low pressure area that is located a few hundred nautical miles SE of Bermuda. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are present N of 24N between 55W and 63W. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are east of the trough to near 50W while light and variable winds are west of the trough to near 73W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft west of about 50W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad 1027 mb high pressure that is analyzed N of he region at 36N42.5W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining moderate to fresh northeast to east winds from 10N to 25N east of 50W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. A cold front extends from near 31N17W to 30N45W, and continues northwestward from there to near 33N35W. Broken to overcast low to mid-level clouds along with possible isolated showers are along and near the frontal boundary. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure SE of Bermuda will drift westward on Sun, then accelerate northward early next week. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of 23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC231428_C_KWBC_20260823142829_4522426-1400-TWDAT.txt ****0000007293**** AXNT20 KNHC 231428 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W south of 19N, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 31W and 39W, and from 11N to 13N between 34W and 36W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of 20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern portion of the wave from 19N to 23N between 47W and 53W. This wave was seen nicely at the surface by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W south of 20N along eastern Puerto Rico to north-central Venezuela, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. A small patch of scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 67W and 71W. A northwestern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 86W south of 21N from near the Yucatan Channel to central Honduras, moving westward at around 10 kt. Only isolated to widely scattered showers are near the wave axis. To the south over the far southwestern section of the Caribbean basin, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted just behind the wave and near the eastern extend of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough from 06N to 13N between 79W and 89W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 06N42W. The ITCZ extends from 06N42W to 07N51W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 09N55W to the coast of Venezuela at 09N61W. Aside from the convection described in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 19W and 24N approaching portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and from 07N to 10N between 23W and 26W. This convection may be associated with or out ahead of the next tropical wave to emerge off the coast of Africa. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb high center over the north-central Gulf at 27.5N90.5W, is generally allowing for anticyclonic light to gentle winds across the basin Slight seas are present throughout the basin per buoy observations. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain are active over the Yucatan Peninsula and the southwestern Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico where a surface trough is present, and due to abundant upper moisture from the eastern Pacific which continues to advect eastward over southern Mexico. Isolated to widely scattered convection is also present near the coast of Florida just south of Apalachee Bay, and from offshore Tampa Bay west- southwestward about 300 nm, likely induced by a weak low-level trough. For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over central Gulf through midweek, with the western Atlantic ridge building westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas through the week. A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. The trough will push further offshore through the Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on convection in the basin, mainly confined to the southwest portion. The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades primarily over the south-central Caribbean. Seas up to around 8 ft are with these trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except over the northwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N, where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are present. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in northern South America continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through the week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds will occasionally increase through the week following passages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low pressure of 1015 mb, Invest AL95, is centered near 28N60W. Some fresh to locally strong winds are found near this low, north of 28N between 55W and 60W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is present north of 23N between 49W and 62W. Elongated surface troughing extends from north of the area well offshore the Carolinas through 31N78W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. Some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen on infrared satellite imagery from the northern Bahamas northward within 120-240 nm either side of the trough. To the east, a cold front extends from near the Iberian Peninsula southwestward through 31N16W to 29N26W to 1020 mb low pressure near 30N29W, then northwestward as a frontal trough. Limited convection is near these features. Rough seas are found north of the front. Across the remainder of the basin, high pressure weak ridging dominates with a 1020 high north of the area near 35N44W. Moderate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 22N north of the monsoon trough between the Cabo Verde ISlands and 42W, and in a belt from there to near the low pressure area, AL95. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Seas are slight north of 20N and west of 60W, and moderate across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure of 1015 mb centered near 28N60W is forecast to drift northwest today, then accelerate northward and out of the basin Mon. There is a low chance of tropical development of this low over the next 48 hours. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of 23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC231552_C_KWBC_20260823155329_4522426-1406-TWDAT.txt ****0000007293**** AXNT20 KNHC 231552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W south of 19N, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 31W and 39W, and from 11N to 13N between 34W and 36W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of 20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern portion of the wave from 19N to 23N between 47W and 53W. This wave was seen nicely at the surface by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W south of 20N along eastern Puerto Rico to north-central Venezuela, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. A small patch of scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 67W and 71W. A northwestern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 86W south of 21N from near the Yucatan Channel to central Honduras, moving westward at around 10 kt. Only isolated to widely scattered showers are near the wave axis. To the south over the far southwestern section of the Caribbean basin, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted just behind the wave and near the eastern extend of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough from 06N to 13N between 79W and 89W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 06N42W. The ITCZ extends from 06N42W to 07N51W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 09N55W to the coast of Venezuela at 09N61W. Aside from the convection described in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 19W and 24N approaching portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and from 07N to 10N between 23W and 26W. This convection may be associated with or out ahead of the next tropical wave to emerge off the coast of Africa. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb high center over the north-central Gulf at 27.5N90.5W, is generally allowing for anticyclonic light to gentle winds across the basin Slight seas are present throughout the basin per buoy observations. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain are active over the Yucatan Peninsula and the southwestern Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico where a surface trough is present, and due to abundant upper moisture from the eastern Pacific which continues to advect eastward over southern Mexico. Isolated to widely scattered convection is also present near the coast of Florida just south of Apalachee Bay, and from offshore Tampa Bay west- southwestward about 300 nm, likely induced by a weak low-level trough. For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over central Gulf through midweek, with the western Atlantic ridge building westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas through the week. A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. The trough will push further offshore through the Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on convection in the basin, mainly confined to the southwest portion. The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades primarily over the south-central Caribbean. Seas up to around 8 ft are with these trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except over the northwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N, where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are present. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in northern South America continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through the week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds will occasionally increase through the week following passages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low pressure of 1015 mb, Invest AL95, is centered near 28N60W. Some fresh to locally strong winds are found near this low, north of 28N between 55W and 60W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is present north of 23N between 49W and 62W. Elongated surface troughing extends from north of the area well offshore the Carolinas through 31N78W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. Some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen on infrared satellite imagery from the northern Bahamas northward within 120-240 nm either side of the trough. To the east, a cold front extends from near the Iberian Peninsula southwestward through 31N16W to 29N26W to 1020 mb low pressure near 30N29W, then northwestward as a frontal trough. Limited convection is near these features. Rough seas are found north of the front. Across the remainder of the basin, high pressure weak ridging dominates with a 1020 high north of the area near 35N44W. Moderate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 22N north of the monsoon trough between the Cabo Verde ISlands and 42W, and in a belt from there to near the low pressure area, AL95. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Seas are slight north of 20N and west of 60W, and moderate across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure of 1015 mb centered near 28N60W is forecast to drift northwest today, then accelerate northward and out of the basin Mon. There is a low chance of tropical development of this low over the next 48 hours. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of 23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC231806AAA_C_KWBC_20260823180713_31523192-1563-TWDAT.txt ****0000008204**** AXNT20 KNHC 231806 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Aug 23 2026 Updated for Special Features of AL95 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL95): Satellite images indicate that showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization associated with an 1015 area of low pressure, Invest AL95, located about 348 nautical miles southeast of Bermuda. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is present north of 23N between 49W and 62W. Some fresh to locally strong winds are found near this low, north of 28N between 55W and 60W. Further development of the low is possible, and this system could become a short-lived tropical depression or storm during the next couple of days while it moves northward and north-northeastward, well northeast of Bermuda. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W south of 19N, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 31W and 39W, and from 11N to 13N between 34W and 36W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W south of 20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern portion of the wave from 19N to 23N between 47W and 53W. This wave was seen nicely at the surface by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W south of 20N along eastern Puerto Rico to north-central Venezuela, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. A small patch of scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 67W and 71W. A northwestern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 86W south of 21N from near the Yucatan Channel to central Honduras, moving westward at around 10 kt. Only isolated to widely scattered showers are near the wave axis. To the south over the far southwestern section of the Caribbean basin, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted just behind the wave and near the eastern extend of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough from 06N to 13N between 79W and 89W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 16N16W and continues southwestward to 06N42W. The ITCZ extends from 06N42W to 07N51W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 09N55W to the coast of Venezuela at 09N61W. Aside from the convection described in the section above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 19W and 24N approaching portions of the Cabo Verde Islands, and from 07N to 10N between 23W and 26W. This convection may be associated with or out ahead of the next tropical wave to emerge off the coast of Africa. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Relatively weak high pressure, anchored by a 1018 mb high center over the north-central Gulf at 27.5N90.5W, is generally allowing for anticyclonic light to gentle winds across the basin Slight seas are present throughout the basin per buoy observations. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain are active over the Yucatan Peninsula and the southwestern Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico where a surface trough is present, and due to abundant upper moisture from the eastern Pacific which continues to advect eastward over southern Mexico. Isolated to widely scattered convection is also present near the coast of Florida just south of Apalachee Bay, and from offshore Tampa Bay west- southwestward about 300 nm, likely induced by a weak low-level trough. For the forecast, weak high pressure will remain centered over central Gulf through midweek, with the western Atlantic ridge building westward into the basin thereafter. This will maintain gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas through the week. A surface trough will generate fresh winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula in the early evenings through the period. The trough will push further offshore through the Bay of Campeche during the overnight hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section above for details on convection in the basin, mainly confined to the southwest portion. The pressure gradient associated to high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades primarily over the south-central Caribbean. Seas up to around 8 ft are with these trades. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere, except over the northwestern part of the Caribbean north of 20N, where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are present. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between western Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in northern South America continue to maintain fresh to strong trades and resultant rough seas over the south-central Caribbean through the week. Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail, aside from light to gentle winds and slight seas in the NW part of the basin. Winds will occasionally increase through the week following passages of a series of relatively weak tropical waves that will quickly move west across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on low pressure, Invest AL95, with the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Elongated surface troughing extends from north of the area well offshore the Carolinas through 31N78W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. Some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen on infrared satellite imagery from the northern Bahamas northward within 120-240 nm either side of the trough. To the east, a cold front extends from near the Iberian Peninsula southwestward through 31N16W to 29N26W to 1020 mb low pressure near 30N29W, then northwestward as a frontal trough. Limited convection is near these features. Rough seas are found north of the front. Across the remainder of the basin, high pressure weak ridging dominates with a 1020 high north of the area near 35N44W. Moderate to fresh trades are found from 10N to 22N north of the monsoon trough between the Cabo Verde ISlands and 42W, and in a belt from there to near the low pressure area, AL95. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Seas are slight north of 20N and west of 60W, and moderate across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the low pressure of 1015 mb centered near 28N60W is forecast to drift northwest today, then accelerate northward and out of the basin Mon. There is a low chance of tropical development of this low over the next 48 hours. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain light to gentle winds N of 23N through the period. To the south, moderate to fresh trades will prevail, with locally strong winds pulsing at times offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. The northern portion of a tropical wave will move across the waters S of about 23N and E of the Bahamas early next week freshening the trades. By Wed, the northern portion of another tropical wave may move across the SE portion of the area, increasing the trades over those waters. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################