--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-02-21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC210339_C_KWBC_20260221034037_29294990-8353-TWDAT.txt ****0000005684**** AXNT20 KNHC 210339 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Feb 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0335 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat night and shift quickly across the basin through early Mon, bringing fresh to near-gale northerly winds and rough seas. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are likely offshore of Tampico and Veracruz Sun and Sun night. Winds and seas should gradually subside from NW to SE Mon through Tue in the wake of the front. Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 05N14W to 01S30W and to 01S47W. A few showers are noted near the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Gale Warning is in effect for the western and SW Gulf. Please, see the Special features section for more information. High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge westward over the Gulf region. The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in western Yucatan support fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 26N and between 87W and 91W, just north of the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The southerly wind flow in the western Gulf waters is lifting smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico northward, producing hazy skies W of 92W. In addition, the warmer southerly wind flow, moving across the cooler coastal waters will also cause the development of areas of dense fog with low visibilities, from the NE Mexican coast to SE Louisiana tonight into Sat morning. Dense Fog Advisories are already in effect for these coastal waters. For the forecast, an Atlantic ridge extending westward along 27N into the central Gulf will maintain moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas at the central and western Gulf through Sat evening. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night as a trough develops daily over the region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An expansive subtropical ridge located north of the islands supports strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. A partial scatterometer satellite pass captured peak winds to 30 kt in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong E-SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and much of the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are evident in the lee of Cuba and between Cuba and Jamaica. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted across the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic ridge along 27N and the Colombian low, will support fresh to strong trade winds in the eastern Gulf of Honduras through Sat night, and across the south-central Caribbean through Sun. These winds will reach near- gale force each night offshore of Colombia. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected for the rest of the Caribbean through Sun night. Farther east, rough seas will linger E of the Lesser Antilles through Sat night as N swell progresses across the central tropical Atlantic. A strong cold front will move through the Gulf of America this weekend and enter the northwestern Caribbean early Mon, reaching from near Haiti to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border Tue morning. Expect strong N winds and rapidly building seas behind this front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the tropical Atlantic, supporting moderate to locally fresh westerly winds and seas of 5-10 ft north of 28N and west of 45W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted south of 20N and west of 30W. Decaying NW swell is producing rough seas north of 20N and east of 35W. In the far eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas are occurring north of 20N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a narrow ridge extends from the central Atlantic along 27N to the NW Bahamas this evening, and will shift slowly eastward through the weekend, producing moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds offshore of northern Florida tonight through Sat evening. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. A strong cold front will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, with strong to near-gale NW winds and rapidly building seas behind the front through early next week. The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon morning, and from 31N60W to the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning, while weakening. The front will stall and weaken quickly from 30N55W to the central Dominican Republic on Wed. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC211022_C_KWBC_20260221102238_29294990-8372-TWDAT.txt ****0000007594**** AXNT20 KNHC 211022 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Feb 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat night and shift quickly across the basin through early Mon. Strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are expected to develop offshore of Tampico on Sun and near the coast of Veracruz Sun afternoon through Sun night. Seas in these areas of winds are expected to build to 12 to 14 ft. Winds and seas should gradually subside from NW to SE Mon through Tue in the wake of the front. Atlantic Gale Warning: This same strong cold front moving through the Gulf of America this weekend will exit the SE U.S. coast late Sun morning and shift southeastward across portions of the W and central Atlantic waters through mid week. Gale force NW winds are expected behind the front, N of 29.5N between 80W and 73W, late Sun afternoon through around midnight Sun before lifting N of 31N Sun night. Seas during this time will build 12 to 15 ft. The front is expected to stall and weaken by Wed from the central Atlantic to central portions of the Dominican Republic, with winds and seas diminishing significantly behind the front Tue through Wed night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits Africa near 12N16.5W and extends southward to near 08N17.5W, where it transitions to ITCZ, and continues to 02.5N20W to 00.5N34W to 01.5N41W to the coast of Brazil near 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 05.5N between 11W and 51W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A Gale Warning is in effect Sun and Sun night for the western and SW Gulf. Please, see the Special features section for more information. High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge westward along 27N into the central Gulf region. The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressure along a trough just off the NW coast of the Yucatan support fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 26N and between 87W and 91W, just north of the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The southerly wind flow in the western Gulf waters is lifting smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico northward, producing hazy skies W of 92W. In addition, the warmer southerly wind flow, moving across the cooler coastal waters is also causing the development of areas of dense fog with low visibilities, from the NE Mexican coast to SE Louisiana and the Florida Big Bend tonight, that is expected to linger into Sat morning. Dense Fog Advisories are already in effect for these coastal waters. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will maintain moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas across the central Gulf through Sat evening. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse north of the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon and tonight as a trough develops over the region. A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat evening and shift quickly across the basin through early Mon, producing fresh to near-gale northerly winds and rough seas behind it. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are expected offshore of Tampico Sun and offshore of Veracruz Sun afternoon and night. Winds and seas should gradually subside from NW to SE Mon through Tue in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An expansive Atlantic subtropical ridge is located north of the islands along 27N, and supports strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas to 11 ft in the south-central Caribbean. A partial scatterometer satellite pass captured peak winds to 30 kt in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong E-SE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the north- central and eastern Caribbean and much of the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are evident in the lee of Cuba. Shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is noted across the basin, and is yielding only scattered showers near the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low, will support fresh to strong trade winds in the eastern Gulf of Honduras through Sat night, and across the south-central Caribbean through Sun, before diminishing. Winds will reach near-gale force each night offshore of Colombia. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected for the rest of the Caribbean through Sun night. Farther east, rough seas will linger E of the Lesser Antilles through Sat night as N swell progresses across the central tropical Atlantic. A strong cold front will move through the Gulf of America this weekend and enter the northwestern Caribbean early Mon, reaching from NW Haiti to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border Tue morning. Expect strong N winds and rapidly building seas behind this front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates the tropical Atlantic, with a narrow ridge extending along about 27N from 55W into the NW Bahamas to south central Florida. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh westerly winds and seas of 5-9 ft north of 28N and west of 55W, except moderate to fresh S to SW winds west of 77W. Moderate or weaker SW to W winds prevail N of 25N between 55W and 35W, where seas are 6 to 10 ft in NW swell. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft in NW to N swell are noted S of the ridge, south of 20N and west of 30W. Decaying NW swell is producing rough seas to 10 ft north of 20N and east of 35W. In the far eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas are occurring north of 20N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Dry and very stable air from Africa is slowly shifting westward away from the W coast and has reached 30W. For the forecast west of 55W, a narrow ridge along 27N will shift slowly eastward through the weekend, producing moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds offshore of northern Florida through early Sun. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. A strong cold front will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, with strong to gale force NW winds and rapidly building seas behind the front through early Mon. The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon morning, and from 31N60W to the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning, while weakening. The front will stall and weaken quickly from 29N55W to the central Dominican Republic on Wed. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC211613_C_KWBC_20260221161440_29294990-8389-TWDAT.txt ****0000006263**** AXNT20 KNHC 211613 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Feb 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat night and shift quickly across the basin through early Mon. Strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are expected to develop offshore of Tampico Sun morning and near the coast of Veracruz Sun afternoon through Sun night. Seas in these areas of winds are expected to build to 12 to 14 ft. Winds and seas should gradually subside from NW to SE Mon through Tue in the wake of the front. Atlantic Gale Warning: This same strong cold front moving through the Gulf of America this weekend will exit the SE U.S. coast late Sun morning and shift southeastward across portions of the W and central Atlantic waters through mid week. Gale force NW winds are expected behind the front, N of 29N between 80W and 73W, Sun afternoon through Sun night before lifting N of 31N. Seas during this time will build to 12 to 15 ft. The front is expected to stall and weaken by Wed from the central Atlantic to central portions of the Dominican Republic, with winds and seas diminishing significantly behind the front Tue through Wed night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information on these Gale Warnings. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to the coast of Brazil near 02N43W. Scattered showers and tstorms are within 120 nm of the equator west of 30W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a GALE WARNING. High pressure centered over the western Atlantic continues to provide for gentle to moderate SE return flow across most of the Gulf waters. Seas are currently 3-6 ft. The SE return flow is lifting smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico northward, producing hazy skies W of 92W. In addition, the warmer southerly wind flow, moving across the cooler coastal waters is also causing the development of areas of dense fog with low visibilities, from the NE Mexican coast to SE Louisiana and the Florida Big Bend tonight. Patches of dense fog are expected to dissipate today. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will maintain moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas across the central Gulf through this evening. A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf this evening and shift quickly across the basin through early Mon, producing fresh to near-gale northerly winds and rough seas behind it. Gale-force winds and very rough seas are expected offshore of Tampico Sun and offshore of Veracruz Sun afternoon and night. Winds and seas should gradually subside from NW to SE Mon through Tue in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical high, currently centered over the western and central Atlantic, and lower pressure over Colombia is currently supporting strong to near-gale force tradewinds in the south-central Caribbean Sea. These winds were well- sampled by satellite scatterometer a couple hours ago. The persistence of these near-gale force wind speeds and fresh to strong trades elsewhere across the central Caribbean has resulted in 8-11 ft seas in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere across the basin, seas are 4-7 ft with moderate to locally fresh trades, except in the Gulf of Honduras where trades are fresh to strong. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic ridge along 25N and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight and across the south-central Caribbean through Sun, before diminishing. Winds will remain near-gale force through tonight offshore of Colombia. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected for the rest of the Caribbean through Sun night. Farther east, rough seas will linger E of the Lesser Antilles through tonight as N swell progresses across the central tropical Atlantic. A strong cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean early Mon, then extend from NW Haiti to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border Tue morning. Expect strong N winds and rapidly building seas behind this front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a GALE WARNING. High pressure dominates the tropical Atlantic, with 1020 mb high centered near 27N70W and 1022 mb high pressure centered near 23N54W. The ridge axis extends across the basin at approximately 25N. Light to gentle anticyclonic flow around the ridge axis prevails north of 20N, with moderate to locally fresh trades prevailing south of 20N. Seas are 4-7 ft across open waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge of high pressure will shift slowly eastward through the weekend, producing moderate to fresh S to SW winds offshore of northern Florida through early Sun. A strong cold front will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, with strong to gale force NW winds and rapidly building seas behind the front through early Mon. The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon, and from 31N60W to the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue, while weakening. The front will stall and weaken quickly from 29N55W to the central Dominican Republic Wed. $$ Mahoney ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################