--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-02-28 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC280428_C_KWBC_20260228042928_29294990-8778-TWDAT.txt ****0000005737**** AXNT20 KNHC 280428 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Feb 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Canarias and Agadir Marine Zones of Meteo France. The forecast calls for NE winds to Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale, with severe gusts between the Canary Islands through at least 01/0000 UTC. Seas currently range from 9 to 13 ft N of 10N and E of 30W based on a recent altimeter pass. Higher seas of 12 to 15 ft are possible just N of the Canary Islands. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2 Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A robust high pressure system near the Azores is maintaining fresh to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Atlantic. Wind waves generated by these winds will continue to generate seas of 8 to 13 ft across most of the waters between 20W and 60W, with highest seas E of 40W. This event will persist through early next week, while drifting SW. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 11N14W, then extends southwestward to 08N16W. The ITCZ continues from 08N16W to the coast of Brazil near 05S36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between 20W-26W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends across the northern Gulf from 30N85W to 26N97W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 29N84W to 25N91W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the trough. This convective activity is further supported by a broad upper-level trough that is shifting eastward over the east-central Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail across the basin, with seas in the 2 to 4 ft range. For the forecast, the convection will progress southeastward tonight while the front slows down as it shifts east-southeastward across the northern half of the basin into Sat, and to east of the basin Sat night while weakening. A strong ridge of high pressure will build west- southwestward over the area from the N Atlantic beginning on Sun night, with the related gradient generally supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 9 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean while mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas are noted over the NW part of the basin. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted across the Atlantic passages in the NE Caribbean. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean over the next several days. A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure N of the area and relatively lower pressure in N Colombia will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia at night Mon through Wed, and fresh to strong trades elsewhere across most of the central and eastern portions of the basin. Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through early next week, with seas to 12 ft possibly near 55W. Elsewhere, little change is expected with moderate to fresh trades continuing through the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale warning is in effect E of 35W. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. A strong high pressure of 1035 mb, located near the Azores, extends a ridge across the entire Atlantic forecast waters. The tight pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa result in fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate seas are noted on the western periphery of the ridge N of the NW Bahamas and E of Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak front will emerge off the southeastern U.S. coast early on Sat, and move slowly southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through Sun night before dissipating. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front are affecting the waters off Florida. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern waters early next week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas are forecast behind the front Mon night through Tue night north of 27N along with seas to around 12 ft near 31N between 50W and 67W. High pressure will build by the middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC281007_C_KWBC_20260228100730_29294990-8792-TWDAT.txt ****0000005869**** AXNT20 KNHC 281007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Feb 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Canarias and Agadir Marine Zones of Meteo France. The forecast calls for NE winds to Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale, with severe gusts between the Canary Islands through at least 01/0000 UTC. Seas currently range from 9 to 13 ft N of 10N and E of 30W based on a recent altimeter pass. Higher seas of 12 to 15 ft are possible just N of the Canary Islands. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2 Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A robust high pressure system near the Azores is maintaining fresh to near gale-force trade winds across the eastern and central Atlantic. Wind waves generated by these winds will continue to generate seas of 8 to 13 ft across most of the waters between 20W and 60W, with highest seas E of 40W. This event will persist through early next week, while drifting SW. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 11N14W, then extends southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 06N and east of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend region to a 1013 mb low pres near 27N87W and then to the south Texas coast. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the SE Gulf waters. A weak pressure gradient dominates the Gulf, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, the storm activity will progress southeastward this morning and weaken. The weak front will slowly sink southeastward and exit the basin tonight. Later, a strong high pressure system will build west-southwestward over the area from the N Atlantic beginning on Sun night, with the related gradient generally supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the Gulf. Locally strong winds will occur at night off N Yucatan Tue and Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong high pressure system centered over the central Atlantic combines with the Colombian low to support fresh to near gale- force trade winds over the central Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 10 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean, while mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas are noted over the NW part of the basin. Seas to 8 ft are noted across the Atlantic passages in the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, an expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean over the next several days. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia at night Mon through at least late next week and support locally very rough seas. Fresh to strong trades expected elsewhere across most of the central and eastern portions of the basin. In the meantime, rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through the forecast period, with seas to 12 ft reaching 55W Mon. Elsewhere, little change is expected with moderate to fresh trades continuing through the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale warning is in effect E of 35W. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. A nearly stationary front has exited the coast off NE Florida, supporting numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 75W and N of 27N. Meanwhile, a 1034 mb high pressure system located near the Azores extends an extensive ridge across the entire Atlantic forecast waters. The tight pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa result in fresh to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas are found north of 20N and between 50W and 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front is expected to move slowly southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through Sun night before dissipating. Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic continues to maintain control over much of the western Atlantic while rough seas prevail over the SE waters. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern waters early next week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas, peaking around 14 ft, are forecast behind the front Mon through Tue night north of 27N. High pressure will build by the middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC281830_C_KWBC_20260228183124_16515500-8507-TWDAT.txt ****0000005931**** AXNT20 KNHC 281830 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Feb 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0660 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Canarias and Agadir Marine Zones of Meteo France until 1/00Z. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2 Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A robust high pressure system near the Azores is maintaining fresh to near gale-force trade winds across the eastern and central Atlantic. Wind waves generated by these winds will continue to generate seas of 8 to 13 ft across most of the waters between 20W and 60W, with highest seas E of 40W. This event will persist through early next week, while drifting southeastward. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea just north of Conakry, then extends southwestward to 05N18W. An ITCZ continues from 05N18W through 02N30W to north of Fortaleza, Brazil at 01S38W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 00N to 06N and east of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from northwest Florida to a 1013 mb low pressure near 27N87W. A surface trough is also seen to the south reaching from near Tampa, Florida to near 25N85W. Widely scattered showers are seen from 25N to 28N between the Florida west coast and 87W. Moderate NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the north-central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the weak front will slowly move southeastward and exit the basin tonight. Afterward, a strong high pressure system will build west-southwestward over the area from the North Atlantic beginning on Sun night, with the related gradient generally supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Gulf. Locally strong winds will occur at night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula Tue and Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong Atlantic Ridge continues to support a robust trade-wind regime across the Caribbean Sea. Scattered trade-wind showers are occurring near the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft dominate the south- central basin. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident at the north-central, eastern and part of the southwestern basin. Gentle NE to SE winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, an expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean over the next several days. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia at night Mon through at least late next week and support locally very rough seas. Fresh to strong trades expected elsewhere across most of the central and eastern portions of the basin. In the meantime, rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through the forecast period, with seas to 12 ft reaching 55W Mon. Elsewhere, little change is expected with moderate to fresh trades continuing through the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section about a gale warning issued by Meteo-France in the eastern Atlantic. A stationary front extends southwestward from off the Carolina coast across 31N79W to beyond northern Florida. Scattered showers are occurring up to 40 nm along either side of the front. Farther south, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen north 27N between 73W and the Florida east coast. A broad 1036 mb Atlantic Ridge is supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds and6 to 8 ft seas in moderate SE swell north of 20N and west of 50W. To the east, fresh to strong E to SE winds with 8 to 12 ft seas are present north of 20N between 35W and 50W. For the tropical Atlantic from 00N to 20N and west of 35W, fresh to strong NE to E winds and 9 to 13 ft seas are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, a shortwave trough aloft in the general area of the front is helping to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms north of 28N between 74W and 79W. The front will resume as a weakening cold front later this morning as it slowly moves southeastward reaching from near 31N77W to central Florida this afternoon. Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic continues to maintain control over much of the western Atlantic while rough seas prevail over the SE waters. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern waters early next week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas, peaking around 14 ft, are forecast behind the front Mon through Tue night north of 27N. High pressure will build by the middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC282313_C_KWBC_20260228231334_29294990-8833-TWDAT.txt ****0000006278**** AXNT20 KNHC 282313 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Mar 01 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Canarias and Agadir Marine Zones of Meteo France until 1/00Z. An ASCAT pass from 2043Z confirmed the presence of gale-force winds near the coast of Morocco from 30N to 31N. Seas are 12 to 13 ft within these wind speeds. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2 Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A strong high pressure of 1034 mb located SW of the Azores near 33N36W is maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the eastern and central Atlantic. Wind waves associated with these winds will continue to generate seas of 8 to 13 ft across most of the waters between 20W and 60W, with highest seas E of 40W. This swell event will persist through early next week while drifting southeastward. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 11N15W, then extends southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil near 0340W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from the Equator to 05N between 10W and 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A nearly stationary front extends southwestward across central Florida to near 27N87W. A band of showers, with embedded strong thunderstorms, is just ahead of the front. High pressure located over the SE of United States extends a ridge across the western Gulf into the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NE winds are in the wake of the front over the NE Gulf. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted. Seas are in general 1 to 3 ft, highest behind the front. For the forecast, the convective activity associated with the front will continue southeastward across the far SE Gulf tonight. The stationary front will transition to a weakening cold front this evening and slowly move southeastward, exiting the basin tonight. Afterward, a strong high pressure system will build west-southwestward over the area from the N Atlantic beginning on Sun night, with the related gradient generally supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the Gulf. Locally strong winds will occur at night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula Tue through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 9 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean and the north-central part of the basin with moderate seas. Gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are seen over the NW Caribbean. Convection has flared-up over Cuba along the sea breeze convergence zone, and also over the Yucatan Peninsula. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, will continue to move across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, a strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force easterly trades and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean over the next several days. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia at night Mon through at least late next week and support locally very rough seas. Fresh to strong trades expected elsewhere across most of the central and eastern portions of the basin well into next week. Fresh to strong northeast winds will begin in the Windward Passage starting late Mon night. Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through the forecast period, with seas to 12 ft reaching 55W Mon. Elsewhere, little change is expected, with moderate to fresh trades continuing through the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale warning remains in effect E of 35W. Please, see the Special Features section for more information A weak cold front extends southwestward from 31N77W to central Florida near Vero Beach. A band of showers, with embedded strong thunderstorms, is just ahead of the front affecting parts of south and central Florida and the NW Bahamas. A strong high pressure of 1034 situated SW of the Azores near 33N36W extends a ridge across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. This system is maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the eastern and central Atlantic, particularly E of 50W, with rough seas. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are noted on the western periphery of the ridge. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned front will slowly move southeastward, reaching from near 31N76W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida by late tonight. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern waters early next week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to near gale- force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 14 ft, are forecast behind the front Mon through Tue night north of 27N. High pressure will build by the middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin. Conditions will begin to slowly abate starting Thu. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################