--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-01-22 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC220437_C_KWBC_20260122043844_12124482-4440-TWDAT.txt ****0000004537**** AXNT20 KNHC 220437 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Jan 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the Caribbean Sea will support gale-force NE winds tonight and through early Thu morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Winds will continue to pulse to near-gale in the same area through the end of the week. Rough seas are forecast with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N23W to 01N37W and to 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 05N and east of 29W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge to the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas east of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. Light showers are evident in the Florida Straits due to a dissipating stationary front. For the forecast, the next cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Sat followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front, may bring near-gale to gale conditions first near Tampico Sun night, then near Veracruz on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, a strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic supports moderate to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft in the north-central and NE Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the SE Caribbean and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, gale force NE winds will continue to pulse tonight and through early Thu morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Winds will continue to pulse to near-gale in the same area through the end of the week. A surface trough, and associated area of moisture, will move across the Leeward Islands this evening, and over Puerto Rico on Thu, likely reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This is forecast to increase the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the islands and surrounding waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N55W to 28N63W, followed by a dissipating stationary front to the central Bahamas and Florida Straits. A few showers are noted near this boundary. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by an extensive, strong ridge north of Bermuda, supporting fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough to locally rough seas south of 27N and east of 65W. The strongest winds and highest seas are found south of 20N and between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are noted west of 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. A weak surface trough east of the Lesser Antilles and divergence aloft sustains scattered showers south of 20N and east of 47W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of 65W through Thu. A weakening stationary front extends from 31N57W to 24N80W. This front will drift N and gradually dissipate through Thu. The pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will continue to support fresh NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through tonight. The next cold front will likely move offshore NE FL by Mon. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong SW winds are possible on Sun night, mainly W of 75W. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC221020_C_KWBC_20260122102048_12124482-4463-TWDAT.txt ****0000004230**** AXNT20 KNHC 221020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jan 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the Caribbean Sea is supporting gale-force NE winds that will prevail through this morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Winds will continue to pulse to near-gale in the same area through the end of the week. Rough seas are forecast with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 02N27W. The ITCZ extends from 02N27W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 07N and E of 32W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge to the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas east of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. Light showers are evident in the Florida Straits due to a dissipating stationary front. For the forecast, the next cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Sat followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front, may bring near-gale to gale conditions first near Tampico Sun night, then near Veracruz on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, a surface trough, and associated area of moisture, has entered the eastern Caribbean enhancing convection. A strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic supports moderate to strong easterly winds and rough seas in the north-central and NE Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the SE Caribbean and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, gale force NE winds will prevail through early this morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Winds will continue to pulse to near-gale in the same area through the end of the week. The trough in the E Caribbean will continue moving W through the week, increasing the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the islands and surrounding waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is analyzed from 30N72W to 23N80W. A few showers are noted near this boundary. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by an extensive, strong ridge north of Bermuda, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas south of 27N and east of 75W. The strongest winds and highest seas are found south of 20N and between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are noted west of 75W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. A weak surface trough east of the Lesser Antilles and divergence aloft sustains scattered showers south of 20N and east of 47W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of 75W through today. The pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will continue to support fresh NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through this morning. The next cold front will likely move offshore NE FL by Mon. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong SW winds are possible on Sun night, mainly W of 75W. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC221803_C_KWBC_20260122180411_25559334-833-TWDAT.txt ****0000004503**** AXNT20 KNHC 221803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jan 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, then runs southwestward to 05N16W. An ITCZ continues from 05N16W across 02N30W to near the Amazon Delta area. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up near and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 00N to 05N between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near the ITCZ from 01N to 03N between 27W and 31W, and from 00N to 04N west of 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is triggering scattered showers at the central Gulf. Otherwise, a modest surface ridge extending southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico dominates most of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the eastern and central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the western Gulf. For the forecast, the modest ridge will be replaced by a stronger high pressure from the north on Fri night and Sat. An arctic cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf this weekend, followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front may bring gale conditions first offshore of Tampico Sun night, then offshore of Veracruz on Mon. North winds may reach to near-gale force across portions of the northwestern Gulf Sun and Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough embedded within the trades is triggering widely scattered showers across the northeastern basin. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted at the north-central and part of the southwestern basin, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, NE to E winds will pulse to near-gale force over the offshore waters of Colombia at night through into early next week. Broad central Atlantic high pressure will maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central basin as well as the Tropical North Atlantic waters through early next week. Large N swell over the Tropical North Atlantic will slowly subside through the weekend, however, seas there will remain at about 8 ft in an E swell. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two surface troughs are generating scattered showers off northeastern and central Florida to 72W, including the northwest Bahamas. Another surface trough is producing scattered showers from 25N to 30N between 57W and 62W. The leading edge of a trade- wind surge is causing scattered moderate convection east of the Lesser Antilles from 14N to 19N between 50W and 56W. A 1034 mb high at the central Atlantic is supporting gentle to moderate NNE to E to SE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in easterly swell exist north of 27N between 35W and 72W. West of 72W and north of 25N, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted. Farther south from 04N to 25N/27N and west of 35W, fresh to strong NE to E trade winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high at the central Atlantic will continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of about 75W today. The pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will continue to support fresh NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through the remainder of this morning. An arctic cold front will move offshore northeastern Florida Sun night, preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC222040_C_KWBC_20260122204052_12124482-4505-TWDAT.txt ****0000004428**** AXNT20 KNHC 222040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Jan 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 11N16W to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 10W and 51W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front has moved into the NW Gulf. There is a weak pressure gradient over the area, with light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevailing. For the forecast, the cold front will become stationary early this evening, then lift back N as a warm front tonight. Generally, weak high pressure is over the remainder of the basin. It will be replaced by slightly stronger high pressure that builds from the N on Fri night and Sat. An arctic cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf on Sat, followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front may bring gale conditions, first over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night, then over the waters offshore Veracruz on Mon as strong high pressure builds in the wake of the front. North winds may reach to near gale force across portions of the NW Gulf Sun and Sun night. Brief gusts to gale force will be possible there. Patchy to areas of dense fog may form mainly along and just offshore the Texas coast tonight into Fri morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, prevail over the south central Caribbean. Fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are over the north central Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, with moderate seas. For the forecast, northeast to east winds will pulse to near gale force over the offshore waters of Colombia at night through the period. Broad central Atlantic high pressure will maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early next week. Large N swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside through the weekend, however, seas there will remain at about 8 ft in an E swell through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A trough extends from 31N71W to the northern Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic discussion waters. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-12 ft, prevail over the waters S of 22N. Elsewhere, moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure over the southeastern United States extending to offshore northern Florida will continue to weaken tonight as a cold front slowly moves across the southeastern United States. Stronger continental high pressure that will build in behind the front will send the front to across the NW part of the area on Fri night, where it will stall through early Sat, and at which time low pressure will form on its western portion and shift northward Sat night into Sun pulling the front back to the N as a warm front. The low will deepen as it tracks eastward well to the N of the forecast waters through Sun night. Fresh to strong southwest winds will then develop over the NW forecast waters Sun and Sun night in advance of a strong arctic cold front that is expected to move offshore northeastern Florida late Sun night, preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. The front may be attended by scattered and showers and thunderstorms as it reaches from near 31N76W to western Cuba by Mon afternoon, and from near 31N55W to 25N65W to eastern Cuba by late Tue. Arctic high pressure will build in behind the front. By late Tue, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected W of the front to roughly a line from near 31N70W to 26N80W. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################