--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2025-11-15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC150450_C_KWBC_20251115045043_12124482-8031-TWDAT.txt ****0000004093**** AXNT20 KNHC 150450 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Nov 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 11N20W. The ITCZ then continues from 11N20W to 09N33W, where it is broken by cyclonic surface winds around a pair of surface lows to the north. The ITCZ then resumes at 09N45W and extends westward to near 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 00N to 22N between 23W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1021 mb high is analyzed over the NE Gulf near 30N89W. The pressure gradient between this high and low pressures to the south of the basin are resulting in moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas across near the Yucatan Channel. Moderate or weaker E winds and slight seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, winds will gradually slacken to light to gentle over the weekend as high pressure across the Southeast of U.S. moves toward the Florida Keys. Then, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region supporting a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow through early next week. Southerly return flow will increase to fresh speeds across the western Gulf on Wed as the pressure gradient tighten some across the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough parallels the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Latest scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong NE to E winds off central Colombia, and a concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed moderate seas in that area. Fresh NE winds prevail off the south coast of central Cuba. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds persist elsewhere with moderate seas. For the forecast, fresh winds are noted in the NW Caribbean. These winds will diminish by Sat. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia and Venezuela tonight will also weaken as the overall pressure gradient decreases, and a gentle to moderate trade wind regime becomes established for the weekend. This pattern will prevail through at least early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers are active along a cold front extending from 31N56W southwestward to near 25N77W to 21N76W. To the E, a surface trough is analyzed from 26N56W to 23N70W. Scattered showers are also along the trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds seas are evident south of 29N and west of 65W, with moderate NW to N winds elsewhere west of the front. Moderate seas are W of the front. An upper trough is active from 15N to 25N between 40W and 50W. This is supporting a pair of 1012 mb low pressure areas near 12N35W and 12N43W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near these low pressure areas from 11N to 22N between 24W and 42W. Over the eastern Atlantic, surface ridging prevails anchored by a 1018 mb high pressure centered north of the front near 26N39W. Gentle to moderate breezes prevail elsewhere across the discussion area. Combined rough seas in NW to N swell across the Atlantic from 20N to 31N, east of 50W, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the front in the W Atlantic will stall from near 28N50W to N of Hispaniola Sat night. The stationary boundary will then dissipate by the start of next week. Expect fresh to strong SW to W winds and building seas across the waters N of 29N Sun, ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the N part of the forecast region Mon. Rough seas, in mainly northerly swell, will periodically impact waters N of 28N through early next week. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC151008_C_KWBC_20251115100906_25559334-4632-TWDAT.txt ****0000003992**** AXNT20 KNHC 151008 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Nov 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 09N36W, where it is broken by cyclonic surface winds around a pair of surface lows to the north. The ITCZ resumes at 09N46W and extends westward to near 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 00N to 14N between 24W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1021 mb high pressure is centered over the Florida Panhandle near 31N87W. The gradient between this high and lower pressure in the Caribbean is leading to moderate NE to E winds in the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, light to gentle anticyclonic flow dominates. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds will dominate the basin as high pressure moves from Florida toward the central basin this weekend. The ridge will slide a bit east for the start of next week, allowing more southeasterly winds to become more dominate, with speeds gradually increasing, reaching fresh speeds across the western Gulf by the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is association with the aforementioned surface trough as well as the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough is impacting waters within about 120 nm of the coast of Central America. A surface trough parallels the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. Fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are ongoing offshore central Colombia. Fresh NE winds are also occurring offshore central Cuba. Mainly gentle trades dominate elsewhere. Moderate seas are present throughout the basin, with the highest seas in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, surface trough will meander offshore Honduras and Nicaragua today, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Fresh NE to E winds S of Cuba and offshore Colombia will diminish by tonight as a weak pressure gradient takes hold over the basin. This will result in an extended period of mainly gentle to moderate trade winds over area waters for the first half of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low pressure of 1012 mb centered near 12N38W is inducing a broad area of scattered moderate convection from 14N to 20N between 28W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 60 nm of a surface trough that extends from 30N46W to 22N70W. Farther north, a cold front is noted from 31N53W to the SE Bahamas. NW of this front, gentle to moderate N winds dominate, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. To the east of the front, broad ridging dominates the overall wind flow, with anticyclonic winds focused around a 1018 mb high pressure centered near 25N35W. Across the deep tropics S of 18N, mainly moderate trades prevail. Seas through most of the area are 5 to 8 ft, although rough seas in N swell currently affect waters N of 28N. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will then stall by tonight from near 23N55W to N of Hispaniola, where it will gradually dissipate Sun into Mon. Expect fresh to strong SW to W winds and building seas across the waters N of 29N Sun, ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the N part of the forecast region Mon. Rough seas, in mainly northerly swell, will periodically impact waters N of 28N through early next week. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC151025_C_KWBC_20251115102606_25559334-4633-TWDAT.txt ****0000004008**** AXNT20 KNHC 151025 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Nov 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 09N36W, where it is broken by cyclonic surface winds around a pair of surface lows to the north. The ITCZ resumes at 09N46W and extends westward to near 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 00N to 14N between 24W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1021 mb high pressure is centered over the Florida Panhandle near 31N87W. The gradient between this high and lower pressure in the Caribbean is leading to moderate NE to E winds in the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, light to gentle anticyclonic flow dominates. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds will dominate the basin as high pressure moves from Florida toward the central basin this weekend. The ridge will slide a bit east for the start of next week, allowing southeasterly winds to become dominant, with speeds gradually increasing, reaching fresh speeds across the western Gulf by the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is association with a stationary surface trough that paralletls the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua as well as the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough is impacting waters within about 120 nm of the coast of Central America. Fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are ongoing offshore central Colombia. Fresh NE winds are also occurring offshore central Cuba. Mainly gentle trades dominate elsewhere. Moderate seas are present throughout the basin, with the highest seas in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, the surface trough will meander offshore Honduras and Nicaragua today, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Fresh NE to E winds S of Cuba and offshore Colombia will diminish by tonight as a weak pressure gradient takes hold over the basin. This will result in an extended period of mainly gentle to moderate trade winds over area waters for the first half of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low pressure of 1012 mb centered near 12N38W is inducing a broad area of scattered moderate convection from 14N to 20N between 28W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 60 nm of a surface trough that extends from 30N46W to 22N70W. Farther north and west, a cold front is noted from 31N53W to the SE Bahamas. NW of this front, gentle to moderate N winds dominate, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. To the east of the front, broad ridging regulates the overall wind flow, with anticyclonic winds focused around a 1018 mb high pressure centered near 25N35W. Across the deep tropics S of 18N, mainly moderate trades prevail. Seas through most waters ahead of the cold front are 5 to 8 ft, although rough seas in N swell currently affect waters N of 28N. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will stall by tonight from near 23N55W to N of Hispaniola, where it will gradually dissipate Sun into Mon. Expect fresh to strong SW to W winds and building seas across the waters N of 29N Sun, ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the N part of the forecast region Mon. Rough seas, in mainly northerly swell, will periodically impact waters N of 28N through early next week. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC151659_C_KWBC_20251115170008_25559334-4656-TWDAT.txt ****0000003252**** AXNT20 KNHC 151659 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Nov 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 11N15W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 16N between 20W and 31W. GULF OF AMERICA... 1021 mb high pressure centered over N Florida provides for light to gentle E winds and 1-3 ft seas across the basin, except in the Yucatan Channel where seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds will dominate the basin as high pressure moves from Florida toward the central basin this weekend. The ridge will slide a bit east for the start of next week, allowing southeasterly winds to become more dominate, reaching fresh speeds across the western Gulf by the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is in the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 12N between 76W and 82W. This convection is related to a surface trough in the western Caribbean offshore Nicaragua and Honduras and the extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough. Fresh winds are reported by satellite scatterometer in the Lee of Cuba, with 3-5 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, a surface trough will meander offshore Honduras and Nicaragua today, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Fresh NE to E winds S of Cuba and offshore Colombia will diminish by tonight as a weak pressure gradient takes hold over the basin. This will result in an extended period of mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin for the first half of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N51W to 23N74W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N to 30N between 50W to 56W, mainly ahead of the front. Satellite scatterometer data indicates moderate or weaker winds near the front. 1013 and 1014 mb low pressures are centered near 12N44W and 12N37W. Scatterometer indicates moderate or weaker winds near these low pressures. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the basin. North of 27N, seas exceed 8 ft due to mixed swells generated north of the area. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will stall by tonight from near 27N55W to N of Hispaniola, where it will gradually dissipate Sun into Mon. Expect fresh to strong SW to W winds and building seas across the waters N of 29N Sun, ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the N part of the forecast region Mon. Rough seas, in mainly northerly swell, will periodically impact waters N of 28N through early next week. $$ Mahoney ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC152258_C_KWBC_20251115225849_12124482-8102-TWDAT.txt ****0000003428**** AXNT20 KNHC 152258 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Nov 16 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 10N15W to 06N25W to 09N55W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 20W and 30W. GULF OF AMERICA... 1018 mb high pressure centered over Atlantic waters off northeast Florida provides for light to gentle E winds and 1-3 ft seas across the basin, except in the Yucatan Channel where seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will dominate the basin as high pressure moves from Florida toward the SE Gulf on Sun. The ridge will slide a bit east for the start of next week, allowing southeasterly winds to become more dominate, reaching fresh to strong speeds across the western Gulf by the middle of next week. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers and thunderstorms are along the monsoon trough over the far southwest Caribbean, mainly off Panama. Fresh winds are reported by scatterometer satellite in the lee of Cuba, with 3-5 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, a surface trough will meander offshore Honduras and Nicaragua through Sun, helping to induce some shower and thunderstorm activity. Fresh NE to E winds S of Cuba and offshore Colombia will diminish by tonight as a weak pressure gradient takes hold over the basin. This will result in an extended period of mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin for the first half of next week. Long period NE swell will propagate across the NE Caribbean, and waters E of the Lesser Antilles Sun into Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N50W to the southern Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the front north of 24N. Earlier scatterometer satellite data indicated moderate or weaker winds near the front. Pair of 1011 mb low pressures are centered near 12N45W and 12N38W. The scatterometer indicated moderate or weaker winds near these low pressures. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the basin. North of 27N, seas exceed 8 ft due to mixed swells generated north of the area. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will stall by tonight from near 27N55W to north of Hispaniola, where it will gradually dissipate Sun into Mon. Expect fresh to strong SW to W winds and building seas across the waters north of 29N Sun, ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the northern part of the forecast region Mon. The front will likely reach from 31N60W to just N of the NW Bahamas on Tue. Rough seas, in mainly northerly swell, will periodically impact waters N of 28N through early next week. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################