--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC300333_C_KWBC_20260630033350_32440682-4117-TWDAT.txt ****0000005161**** AXNT20 KNHC 300333 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Jun 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0325 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced in the far eastern Atlantic along 19W, south of 16N, based on satellite imagery, total precipitable water and wave guidance data. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N and between 23W and 40W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 66W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 15N and between 55W and 66W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 74W, south of 19N, moving westward near 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W and continues southwestward to 09N24W. The ITCZ extends from 09N24W to 07N34W and continues from 07N37W to 05N54W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 05N to 09N and east of 19W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N and between 40W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The pressure gradient between a high pressure in the NE Gulf and lower pressures in Mexico support fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and moderate seas south of 23N and between 88W and 94W. Gentle to moderate E-SE winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the remainder of the western Gulf (west of 90W). Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sat night due to local effects associated with a surface trough. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue morning and then prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-10 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found across the Greater Antilles and nearby waters mainly due to diurnal heating. Similar convection is present in the SE Caribbean and off NE Nicaragua. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period, reaching near-gale force offshore of Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela at night. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast across the remainder of the basin during the next several days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The shower and thunderstorms activity north of the Leeward Islands has mostly dissipated. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of 22N and east of 30W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 20N and east of 24W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed winds up to 32 kt between the water passages in the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, while most of the basin will experience moderate or weaker winds, trades just north of Hispaniola will freshen in the late afternoons and early evenings for the next several days. A weak cold front located off of the SE United States coast will extend from 31N72W to the central Florida peninsula by Tue morning. The front is anticipated to dissipate on Wed while the low pressure area N of the region associated with the front appear to have only a marginally favorable environment for some tropical development as the system drifts southward and then westward later this week. Currently, the forecast keeps the low just N of 30N through Wed. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC301043_C_KWBC_20260630104454_32440682-4137-TWDAT.txt ****0000004761**** AXNT20 KNHC 301043 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Jun 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical is just E of the Cape Verde Islands with axis along 21W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 10W and 26W. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 02N to 15N with axis near 37W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 09N and between 30W and 44W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean south of 17N into inland Venezuela, with axis near 68W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is behind the wave axis in the SE Caribbean. A tropical wave in the SW Caribbean has its axis near 77W, moving westward at 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 08N25W. The ITCZ extends from 08N25W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 09N between 46W and 55W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The pressure gradient across the area has diminished by this morning, which has resulted in moderate or weaker ESE winds across the western half of the Gulf and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas basin-wide are slight. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sat night due to local effects associated with a surface trough. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the western half of the Gulf have diminished to gentle to moderate speeds this morning and are forecast to prevail the remainder forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to near-gale easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers are ongoing in both the Gulf of Honduras and in the SE Caribbean. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through Sat night, except offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela where winds are likely to reach near gale-force speed at night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the E basin while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front is moving across the NE Florida offshore waters west of 70W, bringing showers and scattered tstms to the region. The Azores High extends a broad ridge elsewhere across the subtropical waters, which is supporting moderate or weaker winds W of 30N. Two surface troughs intersect the ridge, one is just E of the Turks and Caicos ahead of the aforementioned front, and a second trough is near 47W, both causing scattered to isolated showers. East of 30W, a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa supports fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft. In the tropical Atlantic waters, trades are moderate to fresh, and seas moderate to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall from 31N72W to just N of Freeport by this afternoon and then transition to a surface trough by Wed morning. The trough will slowly drift WNW and dissipate Thu night offshore NE Florida and southern Georgia. Showers are forecast to continue to affect the offshore waters N of the Bahamas and W of 70W through midweek. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere, except for fresh to locally strong trades offshore Hispaniola and Puerto Rico mainly late in the afternoon into the early evening hours. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC301730_C_KWBC_20260630173133_9109880-7210-TWDAT.txt ****0000004598**** AXNT20 KNHC 301730 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Jun 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical is just SE of the Cape Verde Islands with axis along 22W, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 10W and 26W. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic extends from 02N to 15N with axis near 39W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 10N and between 30W and 41W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean south of 17N to inland Venezuela, with axis near 68W, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over western Venezuela and far eastern Colombia. A tropical wave in the SW Caribbean has its axis near 78W, moving westward at 15 kt. No convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 09N25W. The ITCZ extends from 09N25W to 07N36W, where it is broken by a tropical wave. The ITCZ then resumes from 07N39W to 06N54W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and within 100 nm of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The pressure gradient across the area favors moderate or weaker ESE winds across the western half of the Gulf and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas basin-wide are slight. Scattered showers are occurring across the central Gulf in advance of a surface trough moving southward across the region. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through Sat night due to local effects associated with a surface trough. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W, except for light to gentle winds in the NE Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge north of the basin continues to force fresh to strong easterly trade winds across much of the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High north of the basin combined with the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through Sat night, except offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela where winds are likely to reach near gale-force at night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front is moving across the NE Florida offshore waters west of 65W, bringing showers and scattered tstms to the region. Another surface trough is bringing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to the waters E of the Turks and Caicos and N or Hispaniola. The Azores High extends a broad ridge elsewhere across the subtropical waters, which is supporting moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the waters W of 25W. East of 25W, a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa supports fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough is moving across the NW waters, and extends from 30N71W to near Melbourne, Florida. The trough will first drift southward trough Wed morning, then begin moving westward late Wed into Thu. Under this weather pattern, moderate or weaker winds are expected, except for moderate to fresh winds offshore Hispaniola mainly late in the afternoons into the early evening hours. $$ Adams ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################