--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-04-23 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC230429_C_KWBC_20260423042948_49676782-1775-TWDAT.txt ****0000004448**** AXNT20 KNHC 230429 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Apr 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 11N15W, then curves southwestward to 00N35W. The ITCZ extends from 00N35W to 01N38W to 01N51W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed south of the monsoon trough and east of 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Low-level convergence from western Cuba to SE Texas results in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially over the central Gulf waters. Dry conditions are noted elsewhere. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring east of 90W and south of 26N, eastern Bay of Campeche and in the north- central Gulf waters. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas will persist in the SE Gulf through Thu night. High pressure will build across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas basin-wide through late week. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the evenings. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front is draped across Hispaniola, eastern Cuba and the Cayman Islands, supporting a few showers and isolated thunderstorms. The pressure gradient between this weakening front and higher pressures to the north support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage, as shown by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-6 ft are found in the south-central and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected across the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through tonight. High pressure located N of the basin will weaken over the next couple of days and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from a storm-force low pressure in the North Atlantic to 31N51W and then to 23N57W, where it becomes a stationary front to northern Hispaniola. Scattered showers are noted near and ahead of this boundary. Moderate to locally strong N-NE winds and rough seas are occurring within behind this front. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are found under the ridge between Florida and Bermuda. In the NE Atlantic, a broad low pressure is producing large northerly swell, supporting rough seas north of 27N and between 17W and 37W, along with moderate to locally fresh westerly winds. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas pf 5-8 ft are present south of 23N and east of 23W. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient prevails sustaining moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near 31N51W to 23N58W, then stationary to eastern Cuba. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and rough seas will follow the front as it moves eastward through tonight. Conditions will gradually improve late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls over the SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will weaken over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning on Fri as another cold front reaches the area by Sat. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC230831_C_KWBC_20260423083149_47448518-1747-TWDAT.txt ****0000003165**** AXNT20 KNHC 230831 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Apr 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends southwestward to 01N30W. The ITCZ extends from 01N30W to 01N50W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed south of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak pressure gradient across the area is supporting gentle to moderate winds across the gulf waters. With these winds, seas are in the 3-6 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas basin-wide through. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the evenings. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are over the Windward passage and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are found off the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-3 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will weaken over the next couple of days and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N48W to 24N56W, then stationary to eastern Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong, are within 300 nm west of the front, with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Elsewhere W of the front, light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 26N32W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Northerly swell is bringing rough seas of 8-10 ft to the waters N of 27N between 18W and 35W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, conditions will gradually improve late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls over the SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will weaken over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning on Fri as another cold front reaches the area by Sat. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC231806_C_KWBC_20260423180654_49676782-1814-TWDAT.txt ****0000004152**** AXNT20 KNHC 231806 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Apr 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through |1700 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A Monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Guiana, then curves southwestward from 11N15W and extends southwestward to 01N30W. An ITCZ continues from 01N30W to near 01N28W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 04N between 10W and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 80 nm north of the ITCZ between 22W and 30W, and west of 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A deep-layer trough extends southwestward from Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico. Divergent flow east of this feature is enhancing scattered heavy showers with intense thunderstorms and gusty winds at the southeastern Gulf. At the surface, a ridge runs southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area. This ridge provides moderate to fresh southeast winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across the eastern Gulf. Gentle SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the ridge will prevail across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas Gulf-wide through the weekend. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the evenings. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends southwestward from a tail-end of a stationary front over Hispaniola to near the Nicaragua. Patchy showers are occurring near Jamaica and crab. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft are found at the lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage. Mostly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, high pressure located north of the basin will weaken over the next couple of days and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from a 1010 mb low near 33N45W across 31N46W to 24N55W, then continues as a stationary front to Hispaniola. Patchy showers are occurring up to 50 nm along either side of this boundary. A surface trough runs southwestward from 21N53W to near the northern Leeward Islands. Scattered showers are found near the feature. Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered heavy showers near the coast of French Guiana. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found along and up to 100 nm northwest of the front, including the Great Bahama Bank. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present north of 26N between 35W and the cold front. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, conditions will gradually improve late this week as the front weakens and eventually dissipates over the SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will weaken over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh to locally westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning on Fri as another cold front reaches the area by Sat. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################