--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2026-06-17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC170559_C_KWBC_20260617060004_32440682-3086-TWDAT.txt ****0000007844**** AXNT20 KNHC 170559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jun 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0555 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone One is centered near 27.7N 97.2W at 17/0600 UTC or 10 nm ESE of Corpus Christi Texas, moving NE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are currently around 9 ft. Strong showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the NW Gulf, well east of the center. The system is moving toward the northeast and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the disturbance should move along or roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast today. The system is expected to move farther inland over extreme eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana tonight. The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm today. Weakening is anticipated by tonight when the system moves farther inland. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through Thursday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest One NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 09N and between 28W and 37W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted near the trough axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Nearby convection is described below with the monsoon trough and ITCZ. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing the shower and thunderstorm activity over Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N33W to 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 03N to 10N and east of 28W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 03N and between 41W and 46W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone One along the southern Texas coast. The disturbance near the southern Texas coast and surface trough over the NW Gulf combine to producing showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northern Gulf waters, while generally dry conditions are present elsewhere. Outside of the influence of PTC One, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring off northern Yucatan and moderate winds and moderate seas in the western and NE Gulf. In the rest of the basin, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, One will move NE and just offshore of the Texas coast through Wed, reaching near 28.5N 95.6W Wed morning as a Tropical Depression, move to near 30.2N 93.3W Wed evening as it briefly strengthens to Tropical Storm strength, then continue inland to 32.1N 90.9W Thu morning, before dissipating Thu evening across east-central Louisiana. Large SW to S swell generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone is likely to cause large and dangerous surf and life-threatening rip current conditions along the northwestern and north-central Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient over the basin will sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western and central Gulf Wed through late Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds will begin to diminish late Fri as high pressure settles in over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The broad subtropical ridge forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring off northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, especially in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and south of 12N, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a western Atlantic ridge will remain in place north of the area along 27N-28N through Sat before weakening Sun and Mon, as a frontal system moves off the SE U.S. coast. The pressure gradient south of the ridge will sustain fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat, pulsing to near gale-force Wed night and Thu night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean through Sun. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across SW portions Wed through Thu night as an upper-level trough digs into the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge is the main feature of interest across the tropical Atlantic. The tight gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft off northern Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 27N and west of 65W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 20N and west of 35W. In the far east, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are present north of 15N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, 1022 mb high pressure centered near 28N54W extends a ridge westward along 27N and across S Florida, and will dominate the forecast area through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night through the weekend as a cold front moves off the SE U.S coast. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing slightly Fri night through Sat. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 72W tonight will expand eastward to near 65W through Wed, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front is expected to move offshore early Sat and stall offshore northeast Florida to Bermuda by Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC171024_C_KWBC_20260617102508_32440682-3102-TWDAT.txt ****0000009026**** AXNT20 KNHC 171024 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Jun 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone One is centered along the Texas coast near 28.0N 96.7W at 0900 UTC, or 35 nm SW of Port O'Connor, Texas, moving NE at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are currently around 9 ft. A large cluster of strong showers and thunderstorms continues 120 to 360 nm to the E through SE of the center of One, and well east of the center. The system is is expected to accelerate northeastward today, and straddle the coast most of the day, before moving farther inland over eastern Texas or Louisiana tonight. One is forecast to gradually strengthen and become a tropical storm later today just before landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the Louisiana coast today from Sabine Pass to Morgan City where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Weakening is anticipated by tonight when the system moves farther inland across Louisiana. One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near 20 inches, through Thursday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to life- threatening flash flooding. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest One NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave is along the west coast of Africa, along 14W, south of 17N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N E of 19W to the coast. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 09N and between 30W and 41W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection follows the wave from 06.5N to 09.5N between 45W and 53W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is about the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 86W, south of 18N extending into the eastern Pacific, moving westward at 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing moderate shower and thunderstorm activity over Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06.5N32W. The ITCZ extends from 06N35W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Other than convection described above associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N between 20W and 30W, and S of 03N between 46W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone One along the southern Texas coast. Very moist southerly low level wind flow is combining with a middle to upper-level trough across the extreme NW Gulf, and Potential Tropical Cyclone One, to produce a large cluster of strong convection over the NW Gulf waters, 120 nm east of One. Generally dry conditions prevail elsewhere over the basin. Recent satellite scatterometer date showed moderate to fresh southerly winds across the NW Gulf north of 22N and to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the waters and 6 to 9 ft within the area of strong convection. Outside of the influence of PTC One, moderate SE to S winds and moderate seas prevail W of 85W, with light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas to the E of 85W. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One will move NE and along or just offshore of the Texas coast today, reaching near 29.1N 95.2W this afternoon as a Tropical Storm, and then inland near 31.1N 92.8W tonight as a remnant low, before dissipating Thu across south-central Louisiana. Large SW to S waves generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are likely to cause large and dangerous surf and life- threatening rip current conditions along the northwestern and north-central Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient will develop over the basin and sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western and central Gulf late Wed through Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds and seas will begin to diminish late Fri through the weekend as weak high pressure settles over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The broad subtropical ridge across the western Atlantic extends along 27N-28N and into south Florida. This pattern is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean and across the Gulf of Honduras, with the strongest winds and highest seas to 9 ft occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades and moderate seas are found in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, especially in the lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and south of 12N, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. A cluster of strong thunderstorms has moved westward off of NW Colombia and into the SW Caribbean and across eastern portions of Panama. A lingering middle to upper-level trough continues to support moderate nocturnal convection across eastern portions of Cuba and the adjacent waters. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will remain in place north of the area along 27N-28N through early Sat before weakening Sat night through Mon, as a frontal system moves slowly offshore of the SE U.S. coast. The pressure gradient south of the ridge will sustain fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the south- central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat, pulsing briefly to near gale-force Wed night and Thu night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean through Sun. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across SW portions Wed through Fri as an upper-level trough digs into the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge is the dominant feature of interest across the tropical Atlantic, and is interrupted only by an old frontal trough extending into the region from 31N42W to 27N46W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the Caribbean supports moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 23N and W of 55W into the southeast Bahamas, with thermally enhanced strong trade winds and seas to 7 ft off northern Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 27N and west of 72W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found south of 21N and between 55W and 35W. In the far eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail north of 15N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will dominate the forecast area through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night through the weekend as a weak cold front moves slowly offshore of the SE U.S coast. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing slightly Fri night through Sat. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 72W will expand eastward to near 65W through Wed night, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front is expected to move slowly offshore early Sat and stall offshore northeast Florida by Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC171713_C_KWBC_20260617171411_32440682-3130-TWDAT.txt ****0000006945**** AXNT20 KNHC 171713 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Jun 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly formed Tropical Storm Arthur is centered near 28.6N 95.8W at 17/1500 UTC or 27 nm ENE of Port Oconnor Texas, moving NE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong thunderstorms are active around 150 nm to the southeast of Arthur, and scattered showers and thunderstorms are active elsewhere within 90 nm to 270 nm in the southeast semicircle of Arthur. Rough seas are noted within 180 nm in the southeast quadrant of Arthur, with maximum seas to 11 ft. The strongest winds and rougher seas are expected to remain offshore to the southeast of Arthur as it moves along the Texas coast through the afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish over the northwest Gulf starting this evening as the center of Arthur move inland near the Sabine Pass. However, strong onshore flow and poor marine conditions will persist off southwest Louisiana into the overnight hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Arthur NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave is along the west coast of Africa, along 16W, south of 17N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 14W and 18W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave at this time. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 58W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is evident near this tropical wave at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 15N to 17N between 75W and 78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains over land at this time. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 06N19W to 07N33W, and from 06N37W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 03N to 06N between 20W and 30W, and from 05N to 07N between 37W and 42W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on newly formed Tropical Storm Arthur along the middle Texas coast. Outside of the conditions concerning Tropical Storm Arthur discussed above in the the Special Features section, the remainder of the Gulf is under the influence of the subtropical ridge that extends from the western Atlantic, across Florida into the central Gulf. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong SE to S winds across the central Gulf, where seas are estimated to be 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds persist elsewhere with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, Arthur will weaken to a tropical depression near 30.0N 94.2W this evening, become a remnant low and move to 31.9N 91.6W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu evening. Swells generated by Arthur are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Otherwise, a tightening pressure gradient will develop over the basin and sustain fresh to strong southerly winds over the western and central Gulf late today through Thu night, and moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Gulf. Winds and seas will begin to diminish late Fri through the weekend as weak high pressure settles over the eastern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic is maintaining fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean. Fresh SE winds and 5-6 ft seas are noted over the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate E to SE winds and 4-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Trade wind convergence is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the far southwest Caribbean, off Panama, Costa Rica, and southeast Nicaragua. For the forecast, the western Atlantic ridge will remain in place north of the area along 27N-28N through early Sat before weakening Sat night through Mon, as a frontal system moves slowly offshore of the SE U.S. coast. The pressure gradient south of the ridge will sustain fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing winds at fresh to strong speeds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Sat, pulsing briefly to near gale-force tonight and Thu night. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected elsewhere across the northwestern Caribbean through Sun. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across SW portions Wed through Fri as an upper-level trough digs into the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda-Azores subtropical ridge is the dominant feature of interest across the tropical Atlantic, and is interrupted only by a frontal trough extending into the region from the western Azores to 22N48W. This pattern is supporting moderate southern flow and 4-5 ft seas over west of 70W, gentle breezes and 3-4 ft seas north of 22N along the ridge axis, and moderate to fresh trade winds and 5-6 ft seas south of 22N. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will dominate the forecast area through Fri, then begin to weaken Fri night through the weekend as a weak cold front moves slowly offshore of the SE U.S coast. The related pressure gradient will maintain moderate to locally fresh trade winds south of 22N through Fri, diminishing slightly Fri night through Sat. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds offshore of northeast Florida to near 72W will expand eastward to near 65W through tonight, as a weak frontal system moves across the southeastern U.S. The front is expected to move slowly offshore early Sat and stall offshore northeast Florida by Sun. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################