--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-07-14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC140308_C_KWBC_20260714030848_9109880-8215-TWDEP.txt ****0000007445**** AXPZ20 KNHC 140308 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jul 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP96): A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the main circulation center at 14N103.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 95W and 106W, and within 660 nm in the SW quadrant of the position. Winds are currently 20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 12 ft. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next couple of days while the system moves generally west-northwestward, staying offshore the coast of Mexico. Expect strong winds and rough seas near the Revillagigedo Islands by Tue night, as the low pressure makes its closest point of approach to the south of the islands. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W, north of 01N to across portions of western Costa Rica, Nicaragua and eastern Honduras into the NW Caribbean Sea. This tropical wave was relocated from several hours ago based on the latest observations and guidance. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. The axis of a tropical wave is near 103.5W, from 05N northward to the coast of SW Mexico, moving westward at around 15 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section, with additional details also in the Special Features section regarding the potential for tropical cyclone formation. The axis of a tropical wave is along 134W from 04N to 19N, moving westward at around 10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 14N134W. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to 09N86W. Segments of the ITCZ continues from 09N86W to 11N102W, then from 12N106W to 06N125W to 11N133W, then from 12N135W to 09.5N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 08N to 10N between 84W and 86.5W, from 05N to 10N between 113W and 120W, and within 180 nm south of the ITCZ west of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... In addition to the winds and seas described in the Special Features section off southwest Mexico, fresh to strong gap winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Broad ridging is evident elsewhere off Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere, except light breezes and 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, in addition to the impacts of the developing low pressure described in the Special Features section above, the ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds will prevail through Tue night, increasing to moderate to locally fresh in the central and northern portions midweek. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the week and into the upcoming weekend, strongest during the late night and early morning hours, with locally rough seas at times. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the week several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, with moderate to fresh easterly winds elsewhere from 10N to 13N. Winds are light to gentle across the remainder of the waters per overnight scatterometer passes. Moderate seas dominate the waters. Areas of convection associated with the monsoon trough are described above with locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region mainly at night through at least Fri night along with moderate to locally rough seas. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas are forecast to impact the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala due to the departing presence of a tropical wave several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the northern semicircle of a low pressure area near 14.5N124W with locally rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere, except for fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas south of 06N between 97W and 120W. A surface trough is analyzed north of the ITCZ from 19N126W to 11N127W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 16.5N to 24N between 123W and 129W. For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the tropical wave near 134W diminish through tonight, and further tropical development is not expected. NE winds will freshen with seas 5-7 ft thereafter north of 15N and west of 125W between broad low pressure along the monsoon trough riding farther north. Elsewhere, the main issue will be the development and track of the low pressure described in the Special Features section above. Expect tropical cyclone development with this low pressure through mid week as it moves northwest of the Revillagigedo Islands. Farther south, moderate to fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas will cross the Equator between 100W and 120W and reach as far north as 10N through mid week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the week several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally west- northwestward well offshore of Mexico. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################