--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2025-11-18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC180401_C_KWBC_20251118040233_25559334-4905-TWDEP.txt ****0000004685**** AXPZ20 KNHC 180401 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0340 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N100W to 08N123W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N123W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 03N to 10N between 119W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure located near 29N116W to 21N127W. The front is supporting moderate to fresh SW winds in the northern Gulf of California where seas are slight to 3 ft. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere support locally moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas in NW swell, except slight seas in the remainder Gulf of California. For the forecast, the above mentioned front will continue to weaken tonight before dissipating early Tue morning. A new cold front will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters tonight into Tue, followed by fresh NW winds and rough seas in long period NW swell. Winds are forecast to reach fresh to strong speeds across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front tonight through Tue and then again Tue night. Seas will build to 6 ft during the strongest winds. The cold front will move SE reaching Punta Eugenia by Tue evening while gradually weakening. It is forecast to dissipate between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro by Wed. Rough seas in the wake of the front will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed night into Thu. Otherwise, a new cold front is forecast to enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu night followed by large swell bringing rough seas to 12 ft to the waters N of Punta Eugenia through Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scatterometer wind data continue to show gentle to moderate NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 87W. Elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to locally moderate from the south, however seas are slight. For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern across the region as a weak pressure gradient is forecast to prevail. This will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas through at least midweek. In the Gulf of Papagayo, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through Sat, with pulsing winds to 20 kt at night. Seas are forecast to build to 5 or 6 ft with these winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A stationary front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure located near 29N116W SW to 21N127W. A reinforcing cold front stretches from 30N119W to 26N126W to 25N137W, which is followed by fresh N to NW winds and rough seas to 10 ft in long-period NW swell. Elsewhere N of the ITCZ and W of 125W, high pressure prevails, with a 1025 mb center located near 34N137W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present. For the forecast, the cold front over the northern waters will move southeastward over the next few days, bringing fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas in additional pulses of long period NW swell. This swell event will propagate across much of the waters N of 25N by tonight, and N of 23N and E of 130W by Tue night. High pressure in the wake of the front will support fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas in the trade wind zone toward midweek. At that time, the high pressure center is forecast to be located over the NW corner of the forecast area. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to reach the NW waters Wed night into Thu followed by fresh NW to N winds and rough seas. Then, a low pressure system is expected to develop along the frontal boundary offshore California. The low pressure is forecast to move southward entering the NE forecast waters by Fri night. Strong winds and rough to very rough seas could be associated with this low. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC180941_C_KWBC_20251118094212_12124482-8340-TWDEP.txt ****0000004870**** AXPZ20 KNHC 180941 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N100W to 09N115W to 08N125W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 01N to 07N E of 82W, and from 01N to 11N between 126W and 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 07N to 13N between 112W and 126W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A former stationary front dissipated and its remnants are analyzed as a surface trough from 26N112W to 17N126W. A new cold front is now sinking into the Baja California Norte, stretching from 30N117W to 25N125W to 25N136W. Recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. The front is also bringing rough seas to 11 ft in long-period NW swell, which will start affecting the waters N of Punta Eugenia this morning. Moderate to fresh SW winds are also ahead of the front in the northern Gulf of California where seas are up to 4 ft. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere support mainly light to gentle winds with moderate seas in NW swell, except slight seas in the remainder Gulf of California. For the forecast, winds are forecast to reach fresh to strong speeds across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the cold front today and then again tonight. Seas will build to 6 ft during the strongest winds. The cold front will move SE, reaching Punta Eugenia this evening while gradually weakening, and dissipate N of Cabo San Lazaro by Wed. Rough seas in the wake of the front will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu. Otherwise, a new cold front is forecast to enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu night followed by large swell bringing rough seas to 12 ft to the waters N of Punta Eugenia through Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 88W. Elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to locally moderate from the south, however seas are slight to moderate. For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern across the region as a weak pressure gradient is forecast to prevail. This will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas through at least midweek. In the Gulf of Papagayo, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through Sat, with pulsing winds to 20 kt at night. Seas are forecast to build to 5 or 6 ft with these winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A former stationary front dissipated and its remnants are analyzed as a surface trough from 26N112W to 17N126W. A new cold front is now sinking into the Baja California Norte, stretching from 30N117W to 25N125W to 25N136W. Recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. The front is also bringing rough seas to 11 ft in long-period NW swell, which are already affecting the waters N of 25N between 120W and 133W. Elsewhere N of the ITCZ and W of 127W, a surface ridge prevails, being anchored by a 1026 mb high center located near 32N138W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present. For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward through early Wed, bringing fresh NW to N winds and rough seas in long period NW swell. This swell will propagate across much of the waters N Cabo San Lazaro before subsiding Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will support fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas in the westernmost trade wind zone Wed through Thu. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to reach the NW waters Wed night into Thu followed by fresh NW to N winds and rough seas. Then, a low pressure system is expected to develop along the frontal boundary offshore California. The low pressure is forecast to move southward entering the NE forecast waters by Fri night. Strong winds and rough to very rough seas could be associated with this low. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC181507_C_KWBC_20251118150814_12124482-8359-TWDEP.txt ****0000004228**** AXPZ20 KNHC 181507 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N108W. The ITCZ continues from 09N108W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 09N to 13N between 113W and 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 26N112W to 17N127W. A cold front is analyzed from 30N115W to 23N139W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. The front is also bringing rough seas in long-period NW swell mainly N of 28N. Fresh to strong SW winds are also ahead of the front in the northern Gulf of California, with moderate seas. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere support mainly light to gentle winds with moderate seas in NW swell, except slight seas in the remainder Gulf of California. For the forecast, strong winds will prevail across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the cold front through tonight. The cold front will move SE, reaching Punta Eugenia this evening while gradually weakening, and dissipate N of Cabo San Lazaro by Wed. Rough seas in the wake of the front will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu. Otherwise, a new cold front is forecast to enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu night followed by large swell bringing rough seas to the waters N of Punta Eugenia through Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 88W. Elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the south, with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern across the region as a weak pressure gradient is forecast to prevail. This will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas through at least midweek. In the Gulf of Papagayo, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through Sat, with pulsing winds to 20 kt at night. Moderate seas are forecast to develop with these winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough from 26N112W to 17N127W. A cold front is analyzed from 30N115W to 23N139W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. The front is also bringing rough seas in long-period NW swell, which are already affecting the waters N of 25N and E of 132W. Elsewhere N of the ITCZ and W of 127W, a surface ridge prevails, being anchored by a 1025 mb high center located near 32N137W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present. For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward through early Wed, bringing fresh NW to N winds and rough seas in long period NW swell. This swell will propagate across much of the waters N Cabo San Lazaro before subsiding Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the westernmost trade wind zone Wed through Thu. The next cold front is expected to reach the NW waters Wed night into Thu followed by fresh NW to N winds and rough seas. Then, a low pressure system is expected to develop along the frontal boundary offshore California. The low pressure is forecast to move southward entering the NE forecast waters by Fri night. Strong winds and rough to very rough seas could be associated with this low. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################