--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-09-22 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC220019CCA_C_KWBC_20260922002004_4522426-4267-TWDEP.txt ****0000009756**** AXPZ20 KNHC 220019 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Hurricane Polo is centered near 15.1N 102.7W, or about 250 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico at 21/2100 UTC, moving east-southeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas have spiked up to near 27 ft. Satellite imagery shows that Polo has a ragged eye on both visible and infrared images, with very deep convection starting to wrap around a broken eyewall. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm of the center in the W quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 12N to 17N between 99W and 107W. Polo is forecast to maintain its current motion tonight, with a sharp turn toward the northwest and west- northwest anticipated late Tue into Wed. On the forecast track, the core is Polo is expected to be near or south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Polo is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, becoming a major hurricane by Tue, with further intensification likely though midweek. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and Jalisco through Thu. Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tue. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 14.0N 130.0W, or about 1260 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 21/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 19 ft. Satellite imagery shows that the deep convection, with very cold cloud tops has diminished since this morning and the cloud temperatures have warmed. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 08N to 16N between 124W and 137W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of 08N and west 130W. An eastward turn is forecast on Tue, followed by a gradual turn toward the east-northeast by midweek, and toward the northeast by the end of the week. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane by mid-week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Odalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W north of 01N, moving westward at about 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 11N between 83W and 86W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis from northwest Colombia westward to across southern Nicaragua and to 11N86W to 09N89W and to 12N97W. It resumes to the southwest of Polo at 13N108W, to 12N115W and to near 16N123W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 12N between 90W-94W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 117W-119W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on recently upgraded Hurricane Polo. Recently upgraded Hurricane Polo is near 15.1N 102.7W, or about 250 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico at 21/2100 UTC, moving east-southeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Aside from conditions associated with Tropical Storm Polo, moderate winds and moderate seas are west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are over the Gulf of California. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Polo will continue to strengthen as it moves to near 14.9N 102.3W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 14.9N 102.0W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt, to near 15.4N 102.2W late Tue night with maximum sustained winds 140 kt gusts 170 kt, to near 16.1N 102.9W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 145 kt gusts 175 kt, then begin to slowly weaken as it reaches to near 17.0N 104.0W late Wed night and move to near 17.7N 105.5W Thu afternoon. Polo will move to near 18.6N 108.6W Fri afternoon. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the offshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning when conditions in Baja California Sur offshores will start to deteriorate due to the proximity of Polo. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Odalys currently well to the southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane and reach near 20N121W on Sat. Also, an area of low pressure could form in a few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will continue over the offshore waters through the period, except winds are expected to become moderate fresh over the offshore waters of between northern Costa Rica and Guatemala beginning Thu night as a low pressure area possibly forms to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec along the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on recently upgraded Hurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Odalys. Recently upgraded Hurricane Polo is near 15.1N 102.7W, or about 250 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico at 21/2100 UTC, moving east-southeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Tropical Storm Odalys is near 14.0N 130.0W, or about 1260 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 21/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Outside of Odalys and Polo, fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, are over the waters from 15N to 25N and west of 136W due to a tight gradient between high pressure over the northwest portion of the area, Odalys and a remnant low pressure west of 140W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas remain south of the monsoon trough For the forecast, Hurricane Polo will continue to strengthen as it moves to near 14.9N 102.3W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 14.9N 102.0W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt, to near 15.4N 102.2W late Tue night with maximum sustained winds 140 kt gusts 170 kt, to near 16.1N 102.9W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 145 kt gusts 175 kt, then begin to slowly weaken as it reaches to near 17.0N 104.0W late Wed night and move to near 17.7N 105.5W Thu afternoon. Polo will move to near 18.6N 108.6W Fri afternoon. Tropical Storm Odalys is forecast to gradually intensify as it moves to near 14.5N 130.0W late tonight, to near 15.0N 129.5W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near 15.2N 128.5W late Tue night, then strengthen to a hurricane near 15.3N 127.2W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt, and move to near 16.4N 124.4W Thu afternoon. Odalys will begin to slowly weaken as it reaches to near 17.9N 122.4W Fri afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure over the area will pretty much maintain gentle to moderate winds. Moderate seas are expected with these winds. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC220021CCA_C_KWBC_20260922002213_31523192-4296-TWDEP.txt ****0000009755**** AXPZ20 KNHC 220021 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Hurricane Polo is centered near 15.1N 102.7W, or about 250 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico at 21/2100 UTC, moving east-southeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas have spiked up to near 27 ft. Satellite imagery shows that Polo has a ragged eye on both visible and infrared images, with very deep convection starting to wrap around a broken eyewall. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm of the center in the W quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 12N to 17N between 99W and 107W. Polo is forecast to maintain its current motion tonight, with a sharp turn toward the northwest and west- northwest anticipated late Tue into Wed. On the forecast track, the core is Polo is expected to be near or south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Polo is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, becoming a major hurricane by Tue, with further intensification likely though midweek. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and Jalisco through Thu. Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tue. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 14.0N 130.0W, or about 1260 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 21/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 19 ft. Satellite imagery shows that the deep convection, with very cold cloud tops has diminished since this morning and the cloud temperatures have warmed. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 08N to 16N between 124W and 137W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of 08N and west 130W. An eastward turn is forecast on Tue, followed by a gradual turn toward the east-northeast by midweek, and toward the northeast by the end of the week. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane by mid-week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Odalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W north of 01N, moving westward at about 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 11N between 83W and 86W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis from northwest Colombia westward to across southern Nicaragua and to 11N86W to 09N89W and to 12N97W. It resumes to the southwest of Polo at 13N108W, to 12N115W and to near 16N123W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 12N between 90W-94W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 117W-119W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on recently upgraded Hurricane Polo. Recently upgraded Hurricane Polo is near 15.1N 102.7W, or about 250 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico at 21/2100 UTC, moving east-southeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Aside from conditions associated with Tropical Storm Polo, moderate winds and moderate seas are west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are over the Gulf of California. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Polo will continue to strengthen as it moves to near 14.9N 102.3W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 14.9N 102.0W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt, to near 15.4N 102.2W late Tue night with maximum sustained winds 140 kt gusts 170 kt, to near 16.1N 102.9W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 145 kt gusts 175 kt, then begin to slowly weaken as it reaches to near 17.0N 104.0W late Wed night and move to near 17.7N 105.5W Thu afternoon. Polo will move to near 18.6N 108.6W Fri afternoon. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the offshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning when conditions in Baja California Sur offshores will start to deteriorate due to the proximity of Polo. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Odalys currently well to the southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane and reach near 20N121W on Sat. Also, an area of low pressure could form in a few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will continue over the offshore waters through the period, except winds are expected to become moderate fresh over the offshore waters between northern Costa Rica and Guatemala beginning Thu night as a low pressure area possibly forms to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec along the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on recently upgraded Hurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Odalys. Recently upgraded Hurricane Polo is near 15.1N 102.7W, or about 250 nm south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico at 21/2100 UTC, moving east-southeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed has increased to 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Tropical Storm Odalys is near 14.0N 130.0W, or about 1260 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 21/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Outside of Odalys and Polo, fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, are over the waters from 15N to 25N and west of 136W due to a tight gradient between high pressure over the northwest portion of the area, Odalys and a remnant low pressure west of 140W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas remain south of the monsoon trough For the forecast, Hurricane Polo will continue to strengthen as it moves to near 14.9N 102.3W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 100 kt gusts 120 kt, to near 14.9N 102.0W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt, to near 15.4N 102.2W late Tue night with maximum sustained winds 140 kt gusts 170 kt, to near 16.1N 102.9W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 145 kt gusts 175 kt, then begin to slowly weaken as it reaches to near 17.0N 104.0W late Wed night and move to near 17.7N 105.5W Thu afternoon. Polo will move to near 18.6N 108.6W Fri afternoon. Tropical Storm Odalys is forecast to gradually intensify as it moves to near 14.5N 130.0W late tonight, to near 15.0N 129.5W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near 15.2N 128.5W late Tue night, then strengthen to a hurricane near 15.3N 127.2W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt, and move to near 16.4N 124.4W Thu afternoon. Odalys will begin to slowly weaken as it reaches to near 17.9N 122.4W Fri afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure over the area will pretty much maintain gentle to moderate winds. Moderate seas are expected with these winds. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC220300_C_KWBC_20260922030214_31523192-4305-TWDEP.txt ****0000008793**** AXPZ20 KNHC 220300 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Polo is centered near 15.0N 102.3W at 22/0300 UTC, moving east-southeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas have risen up to near 30 ft or 9.0 m, and may be higher already. Satellite imagery shows that Polo has an eye on infrared images, with very deep convection wrapping around an eyewall. Numerous strong convection is present within 120 nm in the E semicircle, 210 nm in the SW quadrant, and 90 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 0 nm in the NE quadrant, 210 nm in the SE and NW quadrants, and 270 nm in the SW quadrant. Polo is moving toward the east-southeast. This general motion is expected to continue overnight, with a sharp turn toward the northwest and west-northwest anticipated late Tue into Wed. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near or south of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next day or so, and Polo is expected to become a major hurricane shortly, and a potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane by Wed. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico on Tue. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 14.3N 130.3W at 22/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 18 ft or 5.5 m. Satellite imagery shows deep convection with numerous moderate to strong convection seen within 45 nm of the center, except within 150 nm in the SW quadrant. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere within 360 nm in the NE quadrant, 510 nm in the SE quadrant, 990 nm in the SW quadrant, and 150 nm in the NW quadrant. Odalys is moving toward the west-northwest. A turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the east-northeast and east through midweek. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane by mid-week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems. Heavy Rainfall over Central America: Over the next several days, the potential development of a Central American Gyre (CAG) is expected. This CAG along with warm Sea Surface Temperatures will fuel an enhanced amount of moisture in the region and deepen convection over land, while a deep mid to upper level trough extends over the western Caribbean. It is too early to determine exact rainfall amounts. Please consult products from your local weather office. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W north of 02N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below with the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the SW Caribbean Sea northwestward to across portions of Central America, and is not present over the discussion waters east of 140W due to the circulations of Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys. Other than the convection associated with those systems and described above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 15N between 77W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 116W and 119W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Polo. Aside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to fresh NW winds are offshore Baja California with moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the waters. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters away from Polo. For the forecast, Polo will move to 14.9N 101.8W Tue morning, 15.1N 101.7W Tue evening, 15.6N 102.2W Wed morning, 16.5N 103.2W Wed evening, 17.3N 104.5W Thu morning, and 17.7N 106.0W Thu evening. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.6N 109.2W late Fri. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the offshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning when conditions in Baja California Sur offshores will start to deteriorate due to the proximity of Polo. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Odalys currently well to the southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane and gradually approach the waters just beyond the Baja California offshore waters by the end of the upcoming weekend. Outer swells associated with Odalys will propagate into the Baja California waters and mix with those from Polo to create very confused and hazardous seas this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu, then pulse into the upcoming weekend. Also, an area of low pressure could form in a few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the region, except slight seas nearshore Colombia, eastern Panama and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Very active convection is present across much of the offshore waters due to a passing tropical wave described above. Locally higher winds and seas may be in and near any convection. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to prevailacross the offshore waters for the next several days, except becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure may form just west of the area. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Odalys. Outside of Odalys and Polo, fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, are over the waters from 15N to 25N and west of 133W due to a tight gradient between high pressure over the northwest portion of the area, Odalys and a remnant low pressure west of 140W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Polo will move to 14.9N 101.8W Tue morning, 15.1N 101.7W Tue evening, 15.6N 102.2W Wed morning, 16.5N 103.2W Wed evening, 17.3N 104.5W Thu morning, and 17.7N 106.0W Thu evening. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.6N 109.2W late Fri. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Odalys will move to 14.8N 130.1W Tue morning, 15.1N 129.3W Tue evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.2N 128.1W Wed morning, 15.5N 126.8W Wed evening, 16.1N 125.4W Thu morning, and 16.8N 124.3W Thu evening. Odalys will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.3N 122.4W late Fri. Very large seas generated by both systems will merge by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together resulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much maintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC220840_C_KWBC_20260922084116_31523192-4327-TWDEP.txt ****0000009214**** AXPZ20 KNHC 220840 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 14.6N 101.8W at 22/0900 UTC, moving east-southeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Peak seas have risen up to near 36 ft or 11.0 m, and may be even higher. Satellite imagery shows that Polo has a clearly and well defined eye on infrared images, with incredibly deep convection wrapping around an eyewall. Numerous strong convection is present within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present elsewhere from 10N to 17N between 97W and 106W. Polo is moving toward the east- southeast. This general motion is expected to continue today, with a sharp turn toward the northwest and west-northwest anticipated tonight and Wed. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days, although forecast to remain offshore. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued rapid intensification is forecast, and Polo could become a Category 5 hurricane later today. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Thu. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 14.7N 130.4W at 22/0900 UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft or 6.0 m. Satellite imagery shows deep convection with numerous moderate to strong convection seen within 75 nm in the NE quadrant, 210 nm in the S semicircle, and 90 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found elsewhere within 410 nm in the SE semicircle and 120 nm in the NW semicircle. Odalys is moving toward the north-northwest. A turn toward the northeast and then east-northeast is expected over the next day or so. An east-northeast to eastward motion is expected through the end of the week. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Odalys could become a hurricane later today or tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems. Heavy Rainfall over Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next several days. All of these factors are expected to lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the Caribbean to support heavy rainfall from September 22nd through the 25th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Please consult products from your local weather office. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W north of 01N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below with the monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the SW Caribbean Sea northwestward to across portions of Central America, and is not present over the discussion waters east of 140W due to the circulations of Hurricane Polo and Tropical Storm Odalys. Other than the convection associated with those systems and described above, isolated to widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 15N between 77W and 102W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on rapidly intensifying Major Hurricane Polo. Aside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to fresh NW winds are offshore Baja California per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the waters. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters away from Polo. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 14.6N 101.6W this afternoon, 15.0N 101.8W Wed morning, 15.7N 102.5W Wed afternoon, 16.4N 103.7W Thu morning, 17.0N 105.2W Thu afternoon, and 17.4N 106.8W Fri morning. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.2N 109.7W early Sat. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the offshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning when conditions in Baja California Sur offshores will start to deteriorate due to the proximity of Polo. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Odalys currently well to the southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane and gradually approach the waters just beyond the Baja California offshore waters by the end of the upcoming weekend. Outer swells associated with Odalys will propagate into the Baja California waters and mix with those from Polo to create very confused and hazardous seas this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu, then pulse into the upcoming weekend. Also, an area of low pressure could form in a few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the region, except slight seas nearshore Colombia, eastern Panama and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Very active convection is present across much of the offshore waters due to a passing tropical wave described above. Locally higher winds and seas may be in and near any convection. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to prevail across the offshore waters for the next several days, except becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure may form just west of the area. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on rapidly intensifying Major Hurricane Polo, and on Tropical Storm Odalys. Outside of Odalys and Polo, fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, are over the waters from 14N to 24N and west of 133W due to a tight gradient between high pressure over the northwest portion of the area, Odalys and a remnant low pressure west of 140W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 14.6N 101.6W this afternoon, 15.0N 101.8W Wed morning, 15.7N 102.5W Wed afternoon, 16.4N 103.7W Thu morning, 17.0N 105.2W Thu afternoon, and 17.4N 106.8W Fri morning. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.2N 109.7W early Sat. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Odalys will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.1N 130.2W this afternoon, move to 15.3N 129.3W Wed morning, 15.4N 128.0W Wed afternoon, 15.8N 126.6W Thu morning, 16.3N 125.3W Thu afternoon, and 17.0N 124.4W Fri morning. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm over 18.5N 123.2W early Sat. Very large seas generated by both systems will merge by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together resulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much maintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################