--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-06-06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC060353_C_KWBC_20260606035329_32440682-1988-TWDEP.txt ****0000009287**** AXPZ20 KNHC 060353 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jun 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 12.9N 134.3W at 06/0300 UTC, moving southwest at 4 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 4 m, or 13 ft, within 45 nm across the NW semicircle. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection remains confined primarily to the western semicircle, with the low-level circulation center located near or beneath the eastern edge of the deep convection. Gradual weakening is forecast on Saturday, and Amanda is expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Offshore Southern and Southwestern Mexico (EP91): A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week. The disturbance is forecast to move northeastward and then northward near the coast of southern Mexico during the next few days. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of southern Mexico through early next week. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Offshore of Central America: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located offshore of Central America are associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly northward toward the coast of Central America, and a tropical depression could form later this weekend or early next week if the system remains offshore. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala through early next week. Currently, this system has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to low pressure (EP91) located near 14N104W 1009 mb to 10N120W, then resumes SW of Amanda from 11n134w to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 01N to 12N E of 90W, and from 07N to 17N between 94W and 110W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 120W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure center located north of the Hawaiian Islands near 36N152W, extends southeastward across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. This pattern is producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro, and moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds S of Cabo San Lazaro. Winds increase to fresh to strong speeds in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas where an altimeter pass indicates seas of 6 to 9 ft. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell across the remainder of the Baja California waters, except 7 to 9 ft in the outer waters N of Punta Eugenia. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate S winds generally prevail, with seas of 1 to 3 ft across the Gulf, except 3 to 5 ft in SW swell across the entrance of the Gulf. Across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds dominate, with seas of 6 to 8 ft, primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the area extending a broad ridge into the Baja California waters will weaken slightly through Mon as the high drifts to the W. This pattern will support gentle to moderate NW to N winds through tonight, then diminish slightly through Mon, except persisting to fresh speeds near Cabo San Lucas. Rough seas in building NW swell will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia through Sun, then begin to merge with large S swell Sun night through Tue, raising seas to 8 to 9 ft across all Baja waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Southerly winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds in the Gulf of California N of 30N Sat night and Sun night. A broad area of low pressure (EP91), with the potential of tropical cyclone formation is located a few hundred miles southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located offshore of Central America are associated with a trough of low pressure. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A weak surface pressure pattern dominates the region. Latest scatterometer data indicate that a weak low pressure center is beginning to develop along 92W. Gentle to locally moderate winds are associated with this weak low pressure. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 7 ft, in long period SW swell, dominate the offshore forecast waters, except 7 to 8 t SW of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, SW swell will continue to propagate into the regional waters, maintaining moderate to rough seas through Sat morning, with highest seas around 8 ft expected between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. New larger SW swell is expected to arrive Sat night, propagating northeastward and into the coastal waters by late Sun, building seas to 8 to 10 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. SW to W monsoonal winds are expected to strengthen Sat night through Sun and aid in the development of low pressure offshore of Central America. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is already occurring across these waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Amanda located well SW of Baja California Sur. High pressure of 1030 mb located north of the Hawaiian Islands near 36N152W, dominates the waters N of 15N and W of 115W, extending southeastward to S of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Amanda is promoting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the waters N of 12N and W of 130W. Seas over these waters and elsewhere N of 10N are in the 7 to 10 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail N of 27N between 125W and 135W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft in N to NE swell and near 10 ft along 30N. Mainly gentle winds are S of the monsoon trough and W of 115W, with moderate to locally fresh winds S of the monsoon trough and E of 115W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft S of 10N and W of 115W, and 7 to 9 ft in mainly S to SW swell elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Amanda will move to 12.7N 134.6W Sat morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 12.2N 135.2W Sat evening, 11.8N 135.5W Sun morning, become a remnant low and move to 11.4N 136.1W Sun evening, 11.0N 137.0W Mon morning, and 10.7N 138.0W Mon evening. Amanda will change little in intensity as it moves to near 10.4N 139.8W late Tue. Meanwhile, the high pressure NW of the area will drift W and weaken slightly across the area through Mon as Tropical Storm Amanda tracks SW over the western portion of the area, resulting in gradually diminishing winds across the trade wind zone. Little change is expected elsewhere through Sat morning, before large S to SW reaches the equator and moves through the regional waters through early next week, reaching to 20N Sun night through Mon. Northerly swell in the N-central waters with seas of 7 to 10 ft will linger for the next several days. Looking ahead, monsoonal southerly winds are forecast to increase to at least fresh to strong speeds E of 110W this weekend into early next week with possible tropical cyclone formation off both southern Mexico and off portions of Central America. $$ GR/PC ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################