--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2025-10-28 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC280315_C_KWBC_20251028031636_12124482-6231-TWDEP.txt ****0000007194**** AXPZ20 KNHC 280315 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Oct 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0255 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sonia is centered near 14.5N 122.2W at 28/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas near the center are peaking around 14 ft (4.5 M). Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 120 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. A turn toward the west is expected later tonight or Tuesday, followed by a gradual increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, with Sonia expected to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Sonia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Building high pressure over NE Mexico will force strong to gale-force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed through Fri. Winds will reach 35 kt Wed night through Thu night. Rough seas are expected with these winds, peaking around 13 to 14 ft. Seas generated from this event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 09N on Thu night. Winds and seas will subside quickly on Fri. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will begin Sat night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 12N87W to 15N99W to 10N107W and to 13N118W. The monsoon trough then resumes near 12N125W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 06N and east of 89W and also from 10N to 16N and between 111W and 116W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front is moving across the northern offshore waters of Baja California. The Mexican offshore waters remain under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned west of California. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds and rough seas are found in offshore waters of Baja California. Meanwhile, fresh to strong N winds and moderate seas continue to affect the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of California, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through Tue morning. Meanwhile, building high pressure across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico, in the wake of a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of America by midweek, will support strong to gale-force winds and rough seas in the Tehuantepec region Wed through Fri. Expect N to NE winds in the 30 to 35 kt range, and building seas up to 13 or 14 ft with this gap wind event. Seas generated from this event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 09N on Thu night. Rough seas, in NW swell, will persist across the outer forecast waters of Baja California with seas 8 to 11 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro as additional pulses of long period NW swell behind the above mentioned cold front reach the area. This swell event will gradually subside on Tue. At the same time, the cold front is forecast to dissipate. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The onshore flow associated with the broad circulation of Major Hurricane Melissa in the central Caribbean Sea result in moderate to locally fresh SW-W winds and seas of 5-8 ft south of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to impact the offshore waters of Central America. For the forecast, onshore westerly wind flow and moderate seas are expected through Tuesday in response to the broad cyclonic circulation associated to Hurricane Melissa located in the central Caribbean Sea. Winds and seas will diminish thereafter. Meanwhile, rough seas will reach the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Thu due to a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. Fresh to locally strong wind and seas building to 8 ft are forecast for the Papagayo area Thu night into Fri as high pressure builds over the NW Caribbean. Looking ahead, long period cross equatorial SW swell will propagate across the region toward the end of the week, building seas to 9 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by early Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on Tropical Storm Sonia centered well SW of Baja California. No changes in the weather pattern across the tropical eastern Pacific as high pressure centered north of the area continues to dominate. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 115W. A decaying long-period swell is producing seas of 7-10 ft. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are found south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to dominate the N waters most of the week while Tropical Storm Sonia moves westward and continues to weaken. The aforementioned swell event, combined with seas generated by Sonia, will continue to gradually subside from W to E tonight and Tue. Tropical Storm Sonia is near 14.5N 122.2W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Sonia will move to 14.7N 123.2W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 14.9N 124.8W Tue evening, become a remnant low and move to 15.0N 126.7W Wed morning, 14.9N 128.7W Wed evening, and dissipate Thu morning. Looking ahead, long-period cross equatorial SW swell will bring rough seas to the forecast region by the middle of the week. This swell event will roughly cover the waters S of 10N between 105W and 120W by Wed night. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC280917_C_KWBC_20251028091739_12124482-6255-TWDEP.txt ****0000007362**** AXPZ20 KNHC 280917 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0855 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sonia is centered near 14.8N 122.8W at 28/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas near the center are peaking around 14 ft (4.5 M). Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 150 nm of the center in the northern semicircle. Sonia is moving toward the west-northwest and a turn toward the west is expected later today, followed by a gradual increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, with Sonia expected to become a post-tropical remnant low tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Sonia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Building high pressure over NE Mexico will force strong to gale-force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed through Fri. Winds will reach 35 to 40 kt Wed night through Thu night. Rough seas are expected with these winds, peaking around 13 to 14 ft. Seas generated from this event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 09N on Thu night. Winds and seas will subside quickly on Fri. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will begin Sat night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Nicaragua near 12N87W to 15N95W to 10N109W and to 12N117W. The monsoon trough then resumes near 12N127W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present north of 05N and east of 90W and also from 10N to 15N and between 112W and 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front is traversing the northern waters of Baja California, extending from a low pressure system over the SW United States. Meanwhile, a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring in the offshore waters of Baja California. A long-period NW swell propagating across these waters is producing seas of 8-10 ft. Farther south, fresh to strong N winds and moderate seas persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of California, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through this morning. Meanwhile, building high pressure across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico, in the wake of a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of America Wed, will support strong to gale-force winds and rough seas in the Tehuantepec region Wed through Fri. Expect N to NE winds in the 35 to 40 kt range, and building seas up to 13 or 14 ft with this gap wind event. Seas generated from this event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 09N on Thu night. Rough seas, in NW swell, will persist across the outer forecast waters of Baja California with seas 8 to 10 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro as additional pulses of long period NW swell behind the above mentioned cold front reach the area. This swell event will gradually subside today. At the same time, the cold front is forecast to dissipate. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest satellite-derived wind data show that moderate to fresh SW-W winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, associated with the onshore flow on the broad circulation of Major Hurricane Melissa located in the central Caribbean Sea. The strongest winds are in the Gulf of Panama and south of the Peninsula de Azuero. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to impact the offshore waters of Central America. For the forecast, the enhanced onshore westerly wind flow in response to the broad cyclonic circulation of Hurricane Melissa located in the central Caribbean Sea will decrease today. Winds and seas will diminish thereafter. Meanwhile, rough seas will reach the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Thu due to a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. Fresh to locally strong wind and seas building to 8 ft are forecast for the Papagayo area Thu night into Sat as high pressure builds over the NW Caribbean. Looking ahead, long period cross equatorial SW swell will propagate across the region toward the end of the week, building seas to 9 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Thu night into Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on Tropical Storm Sonia centered well SW of Baja California. A broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, supporting moderate to fresh NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 115W, as seen in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. A decaying long-period swell is producing seas of 7-10 ft. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are found south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to dominate the N waters most of the week while Tropical Storm Sonia moves westward and continues to weaken. The aforementioned swell event, combined with seas generated by Sonia, will continue to gradually subside from W to E today. Tropical Storm Sonia is near 14.8N 122.8W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Sonia will move to 15.0N 123.9W this afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 15.1N 125.6W Wed morning, 15.0N 127.7W Wed afternoon, 14.6N 129.9W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu afternoon. Looking ahead, long-period cross equatorial SW swell will bring rough seas to the forecast region by the middle of the week. This swell event will roughly cover the waters S of 10N between 105W and 120W by Wed night. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC281605_C_KWBC_20251028160541_12124482-6277-TWDEP.txt ****0000008050**** AXPZ20 KNHC 281605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sonia is centered near 15.1N 123.5W at 28/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 07 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Seas near the center are peaking around 14 ft (4.5 M). Latest satellite imagery shows that Sonia remains a sheared system. Little banding features are noted in conventional and in recent microwave imagery. Observed convection is described as the numerous moderate to strong-type intensity from 15N to 18N between 123W and 126W. Sonia is forecast to turn toward the west is expected later today, followed by a gradual increase in forward speed during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next or two, with Sonia expected to become a post-tropical remnant low tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Sonia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Building high pressure over NE Mexico will force strong to gale-force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed through Fri. Winds will reach 35 to 40 kt Wed night through Thu night. Rough seas are expected with these winds, peaking around 13 to 14 ft. Seas generated from this event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 09N100W on Thu night. Winds and seas will subside quickly on Fri. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will begin Sat night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from southern Honduras westward to the southwest portion of Guatemala, and continues southwestward to 12N96W and westward to 11N101W to 10N110W and to 10N118W, where it briefly pauses. It resumes to the south- southwest of Tropcial Storm Sonia near 11N26W and continues 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 60 nm north of the trough between 126W-129W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 14N between 88W-90W, also within 60 nm south of the the trough between 107W-110W, and also between 129W-130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front is crossing the central Baja California waters. It extends from a low pressure system over the SW United States. An overnight scatterometer satellite data pass reveals moderate to fresh northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja California. A long-period NW swell propagating across these waters is producing seas of 8 to 10 ft as noted in an overnight altimeter satellite data pass. Elsewhere, fresh to strong northwest to north winds along with moderate seas are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of California, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through this morning. Meanwhile, building high pressure across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico, in the wake of a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of America Wed, will support strong to gale-force winds and rough seas in the Tehuantepec region Wed through Fri. Expect north to northeast winds in the 35 to 40 kt range, and building seas up to 13 or 14 ft with this gap wind event. Seas generated from this event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 09N100W on Thu night. Rough seas due to northwest swell will persist across the outer forecast waters of Baja California with seas 8 to 10 ft north of Cabo San Lazaro as additional pulses of long-period northwest swell in the wake of the above mentioned cold front reach the area. This swell event will gradually subside through early this evening while the cold front dissipates. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicated moderate to fresh southwest to west winds south of the monsoon trough that are associated with the onshore flow on the broad circulation of Major Hurricane Melissa located in the central Caribbean Sea. A ship with call ID WDC66 near 09N90W is reporting southwest winds of 20 kt. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft per latest altimeter satellite data passes. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to impact the offshore waters of Central America. For the forecast, enhanced onshore westerly wind flow in response to the broad cyclonic circulation of Hurricane Melissa located in the central Caribbean Sea will diminish today. Winds will diminish and seas will subside thereafter. Meanwhile, rough seas will reach the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Thu due to a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas building to 8 ft are forecast for the Papagayo area Thu night into Sat as high pressure builds over the northwester Caribbean. Looking ahead, long- period cross equatorial SW swell will propagate across the region toward the end of the week, building seas to 9 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands by Thu night into Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on Tropical Storm Sonia centered well west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. A broad subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, supporting moderate to fresh NE-E winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 115W, as detected in overnight scatterometer satellite data passes. A decaying long-period swell is producing seas of 7-10 ft. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are found south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to dominate the N waters most of the week while Tropical Storm Sonia moves westward and continues to weaken. The aforementioned swell event, combined with seas generated by Sonia, will continue to gradually subside from west to east today. Tropical Storm Sonia is near 15.1N 123.5W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Sonia will weaken to a tropical depression near 15.2N 124.7W this evening, become post- tropical and move to 15.3N 126.5W Wed morning, 15.1N 128.6W Wed evening, and dissipate Thu morning. Looking ahead, long-period cross equatorial SW swell will bring rough seas to the forecast region by the middle of the week. This swell event will roughly cover the waters south of about 10N between 105W and 120W by Wed night. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################