--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-07-18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC180235_C_KWBC_20260718023531_9109880-8558-TWDEP.txt ****0000009233**** AXPZ20 KNHC 180235 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elida: Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 17.4N 122.5W at 18/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently 22 to 23 ft, or 6 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm in the south quadrant and within 150 nm in the west quadrant of Elida. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 420 nm in the east quadrant, 300 nm in the northwest semicircle, and within 480 nm in the south quadrant. Similar convection is in a band between 480 nm and 1200 nm in the SW quadrant. Elida is moving toward the northwest and this motion is expected to continue through Sat. A north- northwestward motion is forecast later this weekend and into early next week. Little change in strength is expected overnight. Weakening is forecast to begin later on Sat and continue through early next week. Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central and Western East Pacific (EP97): A tropical wave with axis along 105W, or several hundred nautical miles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ below. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the central portion of the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, expect increasing winds and building seas to impact portions of the waters well offshore southwest Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands this weekend into early next week. Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 105W from 01N to 18N. Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details, including the high chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1006 mb low pressure over northern Colombia at 10N74.5W to 08N91W to 1009 mb low pressure near 10N105W to 17N114W, then resumes southwest of Elida from 14N125W to 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Elida, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection can be found within 420 nm either side of the monsoon trough to the east of Elida. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 782 nautical miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on a tropical wave located near 105W with the high potential for tropical cyclone formation. Outer conditions associated with Tropical Storm Elida have shifted west of the offshore waters, except for remnant rough seas well offshore Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and locally rough seas are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to a locally tight pressure gradient and nocturnal drainage flow. Otherwise, a broad northwest to southeast ridge axis extends across the waters west of 110W, including off Baja California. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters under the ridge, except moderate to fresh southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California, and similar wind speeds near the SPECIAL FEATURES tropical wave. Seas are moderate elsewhere away from Elida, except slight in the Gulf of California. Active convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters southern and southwestern Mexico, with locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. For the forecast, remnant rough seas associated with Tropical Storm Elida well offshore Baja California Sur which will linger through the remainder of the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with occasionally rough seas. A tropical wave currently near 105W offshore southwestern Mexico has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas will be possible near the Revillagigedo Islands by late this weekend into early next week. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, except slight seas in the Gulf of California, and occasional fresh to locally strong southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California. Winds may freshen off Baja California Norte by midweek. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 09N91W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are near the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 6 to 9 ft downstream of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, and near the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in S to SW swell, dominate the remainder of the offshore waters, except slight seas in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia. Active convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters between Colombia and Costa Rica, with locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through early next week, with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the Gulf of Fonseca. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pres is forecast to develop well to the south of Mexico during the middle to latter part of next week, with the potential for increasing winds and seas on its periphery impacting the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 782 nautical miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on a tropical wave located near 105W with the high potential for tropical cyclone formation. A ridge dominates most of the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and north and west of Elida. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Elida supports moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of 12N and west of 120W, with moderate seas. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, except near the SPECIAL FEATURES tropical wave at 105W, with 5 to 7 ft in mixed swells across the open waters away from Elida. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to 18.4N 123.4W Sat morning, 19.9N 124.5W Sat evening, 21.7N 125.7W Sun morning, 23.7N 126.6W Sun evening, 25.9N 127.4W Mon morning, and become post-tropical and move to 28.3N 128.2W Mon evening. Elida will weaken to a remnant low north of the discussion waters near 32.5N 129.5W late Tue. Seas generated by Elida will continue to propagate across the forecast region, covering roughly the waters from 10N to 25N between 113W and 130W by tonight. Seas are forecast to build to rough near 03.4S120W late tonight as winds freshen south of the monsoon trough in the wake of Elida, and as the tropical wave near 105W potentially develops. These seas will gradually spread northward over the south-central waters as that occurs. Little change in marine conditions is expected across the remainder of the open waters. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC180837_C_KWBC_20260718083833_9109880-8576-TWDEP.txt ****0000009697**** AXPZ20 KNHC 180837 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jul 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elida: Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 18.0N 122.8W at 18/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are currently 22 to 23 ft, or around 6 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the west semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within 90 nm in the east semicircle, with isolated to scattered moderate convection elsewhere between 120 nm and 240 nm of the center of Elida. Elida is moving toward the northwest, and this general motion is expected to continue today. A faster motion toward the north-northwest is forecast by early Sun, followed by a northward turn on Mon. Little change in strength is forecast today, but weakening is expected to begin by tonight and continue for the next few days. Elida is likely to become post-tropical on Mon. Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning Central and Western East Pacific (Invest EP97): A broad 1009 mb area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico near 10.5N105.5W continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted within 240 nm in the NE semicircle and within 600 nm in the SW semicircle of the low. Associated winds are currently 20 to 25 kt and seas are building to 8 ft or around 2.5 m. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the weekend while moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the central portion of the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, expect increasing winds and building seas to impact portions of the waters well offshore southwest Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands this weekend into early next week, and a Gale Warning is now in effect starting late Sun night into early Mon, if not sooner. Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 105.5W from 02N to 17N. Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details, including the high chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1006 mb low pressure over northern Colombia at 09.5N75W to 07N91W to low pressure, Invest EP97, near 10.5N105.5W to 14.5N116.5W, then resumes southwest of Elida from 13N126W to beyond 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Elida, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection can be found from 01N to 11N between 77W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 14N to 17N between 97W and 100W, and from 04N to 11N between 117W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 782 nautical miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on a broad area of low pressure, Invest EP97, near 10.5N105.5W, with the high potential for tropical cyclone formation. Outer conditions associated with Tropical Storm Elida have shifted west of the offshore waters, except for remnant rough seas well offshore Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and locally rough seas are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, due to a locally tight pressure gradient and nocturnal drainage flow. Otherwise, a broad northwest to southeast ridge axis extends across the waters. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters under the ridge, except moderate to fresh southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California, and similar wind speeds near the SPECIAL FEATURES Invest EP97 low pressure area. Seas are moderate elsewhere away from Elida, except slight in the Gulf of California. Active convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters southern and southwestern Mexico, with locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. For the forecast, remnant rough seas associated with Tropical Storm Elida well offshore Baja California Sur which will linger through the remainder of the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with occasionally rough seas. A tropical wave currently near 105.5W offshore southwestern Mexico has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas will be possible near the Revillagigedo Islands by late this weekend into early next week, with a Gale Warning now in effect beginning late Sun night into early Mon if not sooner. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, except slight seas in the Gulf of California, and occasional fresh to locally strong southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California. Winds may freshen off Baja California Norte by midweek. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 09N91W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh NE winds are near the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 6 to 9 ft downstream of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, and near the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in S to SW swell, dominate the remainder of the offshore waters, except slight seas in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia. Active convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters, with locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through early next week, with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the Gulf of Fonseca. Gentle to moderate N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 782 nautical miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on a broad area of low pressure, Invest EP97, near 10.5N105.5W, with the high potential for tropical cyclone formation. A ridge dominates most of the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and north and west of Elida. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Elida supports moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of 15N and west of 120W, with moderate seas away from Elida. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, except near the SPECIAL FEATURES low pressure area, Invest EP97, near 10.5N105.5W, with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swells across the open waters away from Elida. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to 19.0N 123.6W this afternoon, 20.7N 124.8W Sun morning, 22.6N 125.8W Sun afternoon, 24.9N 126.6W Mon morning, become post-tropical and move to 27.4N 127.2W Mon afternoon, and weaken to a remnant low just north of the discussion waters near 30.1N 127.5W Tue morning. Elida will change little in intensity as it moves to 34.5N 128.1W early Wed. Seas generated by Elida will continue to propagate across the forecast region, covering roughly the waters from 10N to 25N between 113W and 130W by early today. Seas are building to rough near 03.4S120W early today as winds freshen south of the monsoon trough in the wake of Elida, and as Invest EP97 potentially develops. These seas will gradually spread northward over the south-central waters as that occurs. Little change in marine conditions is expected across the remainder of the open waters. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################