--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2025-11-30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC300407_C_KWBC_20251130040807_16515500-805-TWDEP.txt ****0000004179**** AXPZ20 KNHC 300407 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 10N108W to 09N127W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 21N between 103W and 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1035 mb high pressure system over the eastern United States supports fresh to locally strong northerly winds and seas to 6 ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The remainder of the basin is under a weaker pressure gradient, allowing for primarily moderate northerly winds and moderate seas from 17N to 23N, affecting the offshore waters SW of Cabo San Lucas and the entrance of the Gulf of California, or from San Jose del Cabo to Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, strong winds will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, diminishing to fresh speeds later tonight. Strong speed winds will briefly resume in Tehuantepec Sun night into Mon, and then again Tue night into Wed. Otherwise, a surface trough is developing SW of the Baja California Sur offshore waters and then will drift NE, impacting the waters near the Revillagigedo Islands with moderate to fresh NE to E winds Sun into Mon. Looking ahead, a series of long-period NW swell will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters mid-week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Surface ridging extending across the northern Caribbean supports moderate to fresh easterly NE winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo. Meanwhile, south of the monsoon trough and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the S to SW and seas are moderate to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh NE winds and moderate seas will prevail in the Papagayo region through Mon morning, and resume again Wed night through Thu night. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is across the far NW waters, extending from 30N131W to 29N140W and generating scattered showers and tstms N of 26N between 125W and 133W. Long-period NW swell associated with the front is supporting rough seas in the 8 to 10 ft range N of 26N and west of 130W. Meanwhile, an upper level trough over the western waters and tropical moisture are supporting a large area of scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms from 10N to 22N between 106W and 120W. The rest of the tropical eastern Pacific waters are under the influence of a 1020 mb high pressure system centered near 28N145W. The gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough and ITCZ continues to sustain moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds N of these boundaries to about 20N and W of 105W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a long-period NW swell progressing across the NW waters will push southeastward before diminishing Sun night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and locally rough seas will persist in the western tropical waters through Sun morning. Another large set of NW swell is forecast to arrive to the NW waters by the end of the weekend and into early next week with seas peaking around 12 ft. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC300957_C_KWBC_20251130095808_16515500-826-TWDEP.txt ****0000004278**** AXPZ20 KNHC 300957 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 10N110W to 08N128W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N128W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 13N to 19N between 108W and 119W. Scattered moderate convection is observed elsewhere from 19N to 28N between 106W and 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure over the eastern United States has shifted eastward, and winds over the SW Gulf of America are now from the E to SE. This new wind pattern over the SW Gulf of America acted to diminish N winds in Tehuantepec to moderate to fresh speeds while seas remain moderate to 6 ft. The remainder of the basin is under a weak pressure gradient, allowing for primarily moderate northerly winds and moderate seas from 18N to 23N, affecting the offshore waters SW of Cabo San Lucas and the entrance of the Gulf of California, or from San Jose del Cabo to Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach strong speed tonight into Mon, and then again Tue night into Wed. Otherwise, a surface trough SW of the Baja California Sur offshore waters will meander in that region bringing showers, and also impacting the waters near the Revillagigedo Islands with fresh to strong NE to E winds through early Mon. Looking ahead, long-period NW swell will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters Tue into Thu before subsiding. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Surface ridging extending across the northern Caribbean supports moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo. Meanwhile, south of the monsoon trough and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the S to SW and seas are moderate to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh NE winds and moderate seas will prevail in the Papagayo region through Mon morning, and resume again Wed night through Thu night. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is across the far NW waters, extending from 30N130W to 27N140W and generating scattered showers and tstms N of 26N between 125W and 133W. Long-period NW swell associated with the front is supporting rough seas in the 8 to 10 ft range N of 26N and west of 130W. Meanwhile, an upper level trough over the western waters and tropical moisture are supporting numerous moderate to strong convection and isolated thunderstorms from 12N to 20N between 108W and 119W. The rest of the tropical eastern Pacific waters are under the influence of a 1021 mb high pressure system centered near 28N146W. The gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough and ITCZ continues to sustain moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds N of these boundaries to about 20N and W of 130W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, long-period NW swell progressing across the NW waters will push southeastward before diminishing tonight. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and locally rough seas will persist in the western tropical waters through this morning. New large NW swell is forecast to arrive to the NW waters late today into Mon evening with seas peaking around 12 ft. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC301519_C_KWBC_20251130152010_16515500-853-TWDEP.txt ****0000004161**** AXPZ20 KNHC 301519 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N106W to 08N128W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N128W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 09N to 21N between 109W and 118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure over eastern Mexico is causing moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A deep layer trough with an axis extending southward from SW of the Revillagigedo Islands is inducing some showers and thunderstorms in waters near the islands as well fresh NE winds, locally higher in and near stronger convection. The remainder of the basin is in a weak pressure gradient with gentle NW winds. Moderate seas prevail for most offshore waters, with slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach strong speeds Tue night into Wed. Otherwise, a surface trough SW of the Baja California Sur offshore waters will meander in that region bringing showers, and also impacting the waters near the Revillagigedo Islands with fresh to strong NE to E winds through early Mon. Looking ahead, long-period NW swell will reach the Baja California Norte offshore waters Tue into Thu before subsiding. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Surface ridging extending across the northern Caribbean supports moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo. Meanwhile, south of the monsoon trough and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the S to SW and seas are moderate to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh NE winds and moderate seas will prevail in the Papagayo region through Mon morning, and resume again Wed night through Thu night. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak cold front over NW waters extends from 30N129W to 26N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted E of this front, N of 26N between 126W and 132W. Only moderate to locally fresh winds accompany and follow the front, but swell generated from higher winds to the north is causing rough seas to the N of the boundary. A deep layer trough with an axis roughly along 115W, from 10N to 20N is causing convection, described in the Monsoon Trough section above. In the zone from 15N to 20N between 115W and 120W, fresh winds and rough seas are present in association with the surface reflection of this trough. Locally hazardous winds and seas are possible with the stronger convection. The rest of the tropical eastern Pacific is under the influence of an expansive 1022 mb high pressure well to the NW. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough and ITCZ sustains moderate NE to E winds N of these boundaries to about 20N and W of 120W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the weak cold front in NW waters will drift S through Mon, then dissipate. Moderate trade winds will persist in the western tropical waters today. New large NW swell is forecast to arrive to the NW waters late today through with seas peaking around 12 ft. Rough seas will reach E to 120W and S to 10N Tue and Tue night, before decaying into late week. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################