--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-10-02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC020241_C_KWBC_20261002024152_31523192-5302-TWDEP.txt ****0000005234**** AXPZ20 KNHC 020241 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.5N 109.9W at 02/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 105W and 120W. Rachel is moving slowly toward the west northwest, and this motion is expected during the next day or so. Thereafter, a more westward track is expected with the forward speed gradually increasing through the remainder of the forecast period. Rachel is forecast to intensify for the next 12 hours or so before starting a weakening trend. Swells generated by Rachel will affect the coast of west- central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 16N95W, then resumes near 16N113W to 14N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 16N E of 103W, and from 00N to 10N W of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, moderate to fresh winds, and rough seas, prevail over the open waters off Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 19.5N 109.9W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Rachel will move to 19.5N 110.4W Fri morning, 19.5N 111.2W Fri evening, 19.6N 112.1W Sat morning, 19.8N 113.1W Sat evening, 19.9N 114.0W Sun morning, and 20.0N 115.0W Sun evening. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.2N 117.8W late Mon. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, south of Punta Eugenia, on Sat. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf. Winds and seas south of the Tehuantepec region will diminish early on Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Mon as an area of low pressure could develop late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel and the remnants of Nineteen-E. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. Fresh to strong winds are south of Hurricane Rachel, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 90W and 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas cover the waters N of 05N between 90W and 120W. Moderate to locally rough winds prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.5N 110.4W Fri morning, 19.5N 111.2W Fri evening, 19.6N 112.1W Sat morning, 19.8N 113.1W Sat evening, 19.9N 114.0W Sun morning, and 20.0N 115.0W Sun evening. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.2N 117.8W late Mon. The area of fresh to strong westerly winds S of Rachel will persist over the next 48 hours. Seas generated by Rachel will propagate across the forecast waters, covering roughly the area from 10N to 25N between 100W and 120W over the next couple of days. $$ AL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC020840_C_KWBC_20261002084021_4522426-5349-TWDEP.txt ****0000004933**** AXPZ20 KNHC 020840 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.4N 110.4W at 02/0900 UTC, moving west at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N to 20N between 105W and 120W. Rachel is moving slowly toward the west, and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed over the weekend and into early next week. Rachel is forecast to maintain its intensity today before starting a weakening trend. Swells generated by Rachel will affect the coast of west- central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 15N96W, then resumes near 16.5N115W to 14N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 16N E of 100W, and from 00N to 08N W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, moderate to fresh winds, and rough seas, prevail over the open waters off Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 19.4N 110.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Rachel will move to 19.5N 111.1W this afternoon, 19.5N 111.9W Sat morning, 19.7N 112.7W Sat afternoon, 19.8N 113.6W Sun morning, 19.9N 114.5W Sun afternoon, and 20.1N 115.8W Mon morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.6N 118.5W early Tue. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, south of Punta Eugenia, on Sat. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Mon as an area of low pressure could develop late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. Fresh to strong winds are south of Hurricane Rachel, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 90W and 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas cover the waters N of 05N between 90W and 120W. Moderate to locally rough winds prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 19.5N 111.1W this afternoon, 19.5N 111.9W Sat morning, 19.7N 112.7W Sat afternoon, 19.8N 113.6W Sun morning, 19.9N 114.5W Sun afternoon, and 20.1N 115.8W Mon morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.6N 118.5W early Tue. Seas generated by Rachel will propagate across the forecast waters, covering roughly the area from 10N to 25N between 100W and 120W over the next couple of days. $$ AL --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC021536_C_KWBC_20261002153657_31523192-5346-TWDEP.txt ****0000005327**** AXPZ20 KNHC 021536 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.3N 110.8W at 02/1500 UTC, moving west at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center. Rachel is moving toward the west, and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday. Additional weakening is expected over the next day or two. However, Rachel is expected to remain a hurricane for the next several days. Rachel is passing just north of Socorro Island. The weather station on this island recently measured sustained winds of 50 kt (92 km/h) with a gust to 68 kt (127 km/h). Swells generated by Rachel will affect the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 15N95W, then resumes W of Rachel near 16N115W to 14N130W to beyond 09N140W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted from 01N to 06N E of 82W to the coast of Colombia. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection are observed from 11N to 15.5N between 86W and 100W, from 10N to 13N between 110W and 120W, and from 00N to 08N W of 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, moderate to fresh winds, and rough seas, prevail over the open waters off Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.3N 111.4W this evening, 19.6N 112.1W Sat morning, 19.8N 112.9W Sat evening, 20.0N 113.9W Sun morning, 20.2N 115.0W Sun evening, and 20.3N 116.3W Mon morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.8N 119.5W early Tue. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, south of Punta Eugenia, on Sat. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region through Sat night, then winds and seas may increase beginning on Sun as an area of low pressure could develop late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Mon as an area of low pressure could develop late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. Fresh to strong winds are south of Hurricane Rachel, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 90W and 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas cover the waters N of 05N between 90W and 120W. Moderate to locally rough winds prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 19.5N 111.1W this afternoon, 19.5N 111.9W Sat morning, 19.7N 112.7W Sat afternoon, 19.8N 113.6W Sun morning, 19.9N 114.5W Sun afternoon, and 20.1N 115.8W Mon morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.6N 118.5W early Tue. Seas generated by Rachel will propagate across the forecast waters, covering roughly the area from 10N to 25N between 100W and 120W over the next couple of days. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC022126_C_KWBC_20261002212727_4522426-5414-TWDEP.txt ****0000005762**** AXPZ20 KNHC 022126 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.3N 111.1W at 02/2100 UTC, moving west at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center. Rachel is moving toward the west, and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. A gradual turn toward the west- northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday. Some weakening is expected over the next day or two. However, Rachel is expected to remain a hurricane for the next several days. A few hours ago, the weather station on Socorro Island measured sustained winds of 53 kt (97 km/h) with a gust to 74 kt (137 km/h). Swells generated by Rachel will affect the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 15N96W, then resumes W of Rachel near 15N115W to 15N130W to beyond 07N140W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 03N to 06N E of 83W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 16N between 86W and 100W, from 10N to 15N between 110W and 122W, and from 00N to 08N W of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are reaching the entrance to the Gulf of California, the offshore waters of Baja California, south of Punta Eugenia, and the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico north of Michoacan. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.4N 111.6W Sat morning, 19.7N 112.4W Sat afternoon, 20.0N 113.2W Sun morning, 20.2N 114.2W Sun afternoon, 20.3N 115.4W Mon morning, and 20.5N 116.8W Mon afternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 21.0N 120.0W Tue afternoon. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, and mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least Mon. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf through Sun night. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region through Sun, then winds and seas may increase beginning on Sun night as an area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Mon as an area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. A band of fresh to strong winds, with rough seas, is south of Hurricane Rachel, affecting the area from 11N to 15N between 107W and 116W based on recent scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the waters from 10N to 26N between 102W and 118W. Moderate to locally rough seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.4N 111.6W Sat morning, 19.7N 112.4W Sat afternoon, 20.0N 113.2W Sun morning, 20.2N 114.2W Sun afternoon, 20.3N 115.4W Mon morning, and 20.5N 116.8W Mon afternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 21.0N 120.0W Tue afternoon. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the forecast waters, covering roughly the area from 10N to 25N between 105W and 120W during the upcoming weekend. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################