--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-09-07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC070319_C_KWBC_20260907031958_21889468-1481-TWDEP.txt ****0000006141**** AXPZ20 KNHC 070319 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Sep 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 24.2N 123.2W at 07/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are to near 28 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm SE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm elsewhere of center, except 90 nm SW quadrant. Steady weakening is expected to continue for the next several days, and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 108W from 04N to 19N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 09N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is within 500 nm S of the trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on T.S. Marie centered about 480 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds on the outer fringe of Hurricane Marie are over the outer offshore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. Seas within these winds are 8 to 12 ft in southwest to west swell. Moderate or weaker winds and rough seas in southwest to west swell are over the rest of the Baja California offshore waters. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will move to 24.6N 124.0W Mon morning, 25.1N 125.3W Mon evening, 26.0N 126.5W Tue morning, 27.4N 127.5W Tue evening, weaken to a remnant low near 29.4N 128.5W Wed morning, and 31.6N 129.7W Wed evening. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to 35.3N 133.3W by late Thu. A trough of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter portions of this week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier satellite Ascat data captured fresh northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting much of the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, some of which may be accompanied by gusty winds and higher seas. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. Building ridging by the middle of the week will result in strong gap winds and rough seas there, with winds possibly reaching near gale Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Tue through Wed. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about T.S. Marie located about 480 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Outside from marine impacts attributed to T.S. Marie over the northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh cyclonic winds and rough seas persist from 21N to 28N and west of 138W associated with the outer eastern quadrant of the remnants of Karina that continues to move farther away from the eastern Pacific basin. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft are prevalent across the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will move to 24.6N 124.0W Mon morning, 25.1N 125.3W Mon evening, 26.0N 126.5W Tue morning, 27.4N 127.5W Tue evening, weaken to a remnant low near 29.4N 128.5W Wed morning, and 31.6N 129.7W Wed evening. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to 35.3N 133.3W by late Thu. Cross equatorial swell will produce seas to 8 ft in the southern waters west of about 100W during much of the week. A trough of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter portions of this week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC070918_C_KWBC_20260907091858_38011292-1796-TWDEP.txt ****0000005840**** AXPZ20 KNHC 070918 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Sep 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 24.4N 123.7W at 07/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are to near 26 ft. Scattered moderate convection is from 20N to 26N between 120W and 125W. Steady weakening is expected to continue for the next several days, and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 109W from 03N to 18N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted near the wave axis between 104W-114W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is within 400 nm S of the trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on T.S. Marie. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds on the outer fringe of Marie are over the outer offshore waters mainly N of 24N. Seas within these winds are 8 to 11 ft in southwest to west swell. Moderate or weaker winds and rough seas in southwest to west swell are over the rest of the Baja California offshore waters. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will move to 24.8N 124.6W this afternoon, 25.4N 125.8W Tue morning, 26.5N 126.9W Tue afternoon, 28.2N 127.9W Wed morning, weaken to a remnant low near 30.4N 129.2W Wed afternoon, and 32.4N 130.8W Thu morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to 36.0N 134.6W by early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected to briefly develop over the nearshore waters of Baja California and in the northern Gulf of California early this week as Marie moves farther away from the forecast waters. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin by around midweek. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting much of the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, some of which may be accompanied by gusty winds and higher seas. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. Building ridging by the middle of the week will result in strong gap winds and rough seas there, with winds possibly reaching near gale speeds by midweek. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Tue through Wed. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about T.S. Marie. Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie over the northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh cyclonic winds and rough seas persist from 22N to 26N and west of 138W associated with the outer eastern quadrant of the remnants of Karina that continues to move farther away from the eastern Pacific basin. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft are prevalent across the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, T.S. Marie will move to 24.8N 124.6W this afternoon, 25.4N 125.8W Tue morning, 26.5N 126.9W Tue afternoon, 28.2N 127.9W Wed morning, weaken to a remnant low near 30.4N 129.2W Wed afternoon, and 32.4N 130.8W Thu morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to 36.0N 134.6W by early Fri. Cross equatorial swell will produce seas to 8 ft in the southern waters west of 100W during the week. To the east, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southwest of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter portions of the week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC071605_C_KWBC_20260907160604_21889468-1533-TWDEP.txt ****0000007424**** AXPZ20 KNHC 071605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Sep 07 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 24.7N 124.4W, or about 535 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico at 07/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 06 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has risen slightly to 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas have lowered to near 23 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows little change in Marie's structure over the last several hours. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center in SW quadrant. Numerous moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the W quadrant and 30 nm in the NW quadrant. Marie is forecast to turn to the northwest over the next couple of days. Steady weakening is expected for the next couple of days, and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wed. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has entered the area, with its axis along 85W north of 04N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 09.5N between 82W and 88W. A tropical wave has its axis along 110W from 04N to 19N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. An overnight Ascat pass depicted a wind shift from northeast to southeast across the wave axis. These winds were of light to gentle speeds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 04N to 10N between 106W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of northwest Colombia westward across northern Costa Rica to 10.5N85W to 11N100W to 11N115W to 11N125W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 09N between 124W-130W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N between 113W-116W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 130W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Marie located about 535 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Fresh southeast to south winds on the outer eastern fringes of Marie are over the outer offshore waters that correspond from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in southwest to west swell. Moderate or weaker winds and rough seas in southwest to west swell are over the rest of the Baja California offshore waters. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will move to near 25.1N 125.4W this evening with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt, and maintain intensity as it moves to near 25.9N 126.6W Tue morning, to near 27.4N 127.6W Tue evening, to near 29.3N 128.7W Wed morning with maximum sustained wins 35 kt gusts 45 kt, then weaken to a remnant low near 31.6N 130.0W by late Wed. Marie will dissipate early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected to briefly develop over the nearshore waters of Baja California and in the northern Gulf of California tonight into Tue as Marie moves farther away from the forecast waters. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin late Tue night into early Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region as noted in an overnight Ascat pass. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over some portions of the offshore waters, primarily south of northern Nicaragua. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. High pressure building north of the area by Wed will lead to strong gap winds and rough seas there, with winds possibly reaching near gale speeds Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Tue through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Marie located about 535 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie over the northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh northeast to east along with seas of 7 to 10 ft in east swell are over the far western waters north of 20N and west of about 135W. These conditions are forecast to merge with those associated to Tropical Storm Marie in about 24 hours. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in north to northeast swell generated by Tropical Storm Marie over the waters north of 13N between 118W and 135W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will move to near 25.1N 125.4W this evening with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt, maintain intensity as it moves to near 25.9N 126.6W Tue morning, to near 27.4N 127.6W Tue evening, and to near 29.3N 128.7W Wed morning with maximum sustained wins 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Marie is then forecast to weaken to a remnant low near 31.6N 130.0W by late Wed and dissipate early on Fri Cross-equatorial Southern Hemispheric swell produce seas to 8 ft may reach the far southern boundary of the south-central waters Tue through Thu. To the east, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southwest of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system generally west-northwestward. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC072151CCA_C_KWBC_20260907215203_38011292-1853-TWDEP.txt ****0000007500**** AXPZ20 KNHC 072151 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Sep 07 2026 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 24.7N 124.4W, or about 535 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico at 07/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 06 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has risen slightly to 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas have lowered to near 23 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows little change in Marie's structure over the last several hours. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center in SW quadrant. Numerous moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of the center in the SW quadrant, within 60 nm of the center in the W quadrant and 30 nm in the NW quadrant. Marie is forecast to turn to the northwest over the next couple of days. Steady weakening is expected for the next couple of days, and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wed. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has entered the area, with its axis along 85W north of 04N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 09.5N between 82W and 88W. A tropical wave has its axis along 110W from 04N to 19N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. An overnight Ascat pass depicted a wind shift from northeast to southeast across the wave axis. These winds were of light to gentle speeds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 04N to 10N between 106W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of northwest Colombia westward across northern Costa Rica to 10.5N85W to 11N100W to 11N115W to 11N125W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 09N between 124W-130W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N between 113W-116W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 130W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Marie located about 535 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Fresh southeast to south winds on the outer eastern fringes of Marie are over the outer offshore waters that correspond from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in southwest to west swell. Moderate or weaker winds and rough seas in southwest to west swell are over the rest of the Baja California offshore waters. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will move to near 25.1N 125.4W this evening with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt, and maintain intensity as it moves to near 25.9N 126.6W Tue morning, to near 27.4N 127.6W Tue evening, to near 29.3N 128.7W Wed morning with maximum sustained wins 35 kt gusts 45 kt, then weaken to a remnant low near 31.6N 130.0W by late Wed. Marie will dissipate early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected to briefly develop over the nearshore waters of Baja California and in the northern Gulf of California tonight into Tue as Marie moves farther away from the forecast waters. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin late Tue night into early Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region as noted in an overnight Ascat pass. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over some portions of the offshore waters, primarily south of northern Nicaragua. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. High pressure building north of the area by Wed will lead to strong gap winds and rough seas there, with winds possibly reaching near gale speeds Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Tue through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Marie located about 535 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie over the northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh northeast to east winds along with seas of 7 to 10 ft in east swell are over the far western waters north of 20N and west of about 135W. These conditions are forecast to merge with those associated to Tropical Storm Marie in about 24 hours. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in north to northeast swell generated by Tropical Storm Marie over the waters north of 13N between 118W and 135W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will move to near 25.1N 125.4W this evening with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt, maintain intensity as it moves to near 25.9N 126.6W Tue morning, to near 27.4N 127.6W Tue evening, and to near 29.3N 128.7W Wed morning with maximum sustained wins 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Marie is then forecast to weaken to a remnant low near 31.6N 130.0W by late Wed and dissipate early on Fri Cross-equatorial Southern Hemispheric swell produce seas to 8 ft may reach the far southern boundary of the south-central waters Tue through Thu. To the east, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles south-southwest of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system generally west-northwestward. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC072201_C_KWBC_20260907220206_21889468-1566-TWDEP.txt ****0000007373**** AXPZ20 KNHC 072201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Sep 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 24.8N 125.3W, or about 580 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico at 07/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 07 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas have lowered to near 21 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows that Marie is a sheared system, with its center having become exposed to the northwest of numerous moderate convection that reach within 120 nm of the center in the SE and S quadrants. Marie is forecast to turn to the northwest over the next couple of days, and is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wed. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 86W north of 04N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N between 82W and 86W. A tropical wave has its axis along 108W from 04N to 19N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. This wave is depicted on visible imagery. The imagery shows increasing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 07N to 15N between 105W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the northwest portion of Colombia westward across northern Costa Rica to 10N85W to 08.5N98W to 12N111W to 11N124W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 134W-140W, and from 05N to 09N between 110W-118W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 100W AND 104W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Marie located about 580 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. A ridge axis noses southeastward behind Marie from 30N120W to near 26N117W. The related pressure gradient is generally allowing for light to gentle winds over the Baja California offshore waters. Southwest to west swell from Marie are producing seas of 7 to 10 ft over the outer offshore waters from 30N to Punta Eugenia to the northwest corner of the offshore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate or weaker winds and mostly moderate seas are over the rest of the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate or lighter winds along with moderate seas are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will gradually weaken as it moves to near 25.2N 126.2W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50 kt, to near 26.3N 127.4W Tue afternoon, become post-tropical and move to near 28.0N 128.4W late Tue night, weaken to a remnant low near 30.0N 129.6W Wed afternoon, then move to near 32.2N 131.1W Thu morning and dissipate north of 30N Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected to briefly develop over the nearshore waters of Baja California and over some sections of the Gulf of California tonight into Tue as Marie moves farther away from the forecast waters. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin late Tue night into early Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft in south to southwest swell. Light to gentle winds along with moderate seas are elsewhere over these waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over some portions of the offshore waters, primarily south of northern Nicaragua. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. High pressure building north of the area by Wed will lead to strong gap winds and rough seas there, with winds possibly reaching near gale speeds Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Tue through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Marie located about 580 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie over the northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh northeast to east winds along with seas of 7 to 10 ft in east swell are over the far western waters north of 20N and west of about 135W. These conditions are forecast to merge with those associated to Tropical Storm Marie in about 24 hours. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in north to northeast swell generated by Tropical Storm Marie over the waters north of 13N between 118W and 135W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will gradually weaken as it moves to near 25.2N 126.2W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50 kt, to near 26.3N 127.4W Tue afternoon, become post-tropical and move to near 28.0N 128.4W late Tue night, weaken to a remnant low near 30.0N 129.6W Wed afternoon, then move to near 32.2N 131.1W Thu morning and dissipate north of 30N Fri afternoon. Long-period northwest to north swell is merging with cross- equatorial Southern Hemispheric swell south of about 2N and between 110W and 125W. This swell area is forecast to expand eastward through Wed as the primary swell direction becomes northwest to north, Seas from this swell are expected to be 7 to 9 ft. To the east, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is located several hundred nautical miles south- southwest of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system generally west-northwestward. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC072235AAA_C_KWBC_20260907223604_38011292-1856-TWDEP.txt ****0000007544**** AXPZ20 KNHC 072235 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2335 UTC Mon Sep 7 2026 Updated Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 24.8N 125.3W, or about 580 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico at 07/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 07 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has risen to 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas have lowered to near 21 ft. Latest satellite imagery shows that Marie is a sheared system, with its center having become exposed to the northwest of numerous moderate convection that reach within 120 nm of the center in the SE and S quadrants. Marie is forecast to turn to the northwest over the next couple of days, and is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wed. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 86W north of 04N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N between 82W and 86W. A tropical wave has its axis along 108W from 04N to 19N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. This wave is depicted on visible imagery. The imagery shows increasing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 07N to 15N between 105W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the northwest portion of Colombia westward across northern Costa Rica to 10N85W to 08.5N98W to 12N111W to 11N124W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 134W-140W, and from 05N to 09N between 110W-118W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 100W AND 104W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Marie located about 580 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. A ridge axis noses southeastward behind Marie from 30N120W to near 26N117W. The related pressure gradient is generally allowing for light to gentle winds over the Baja California offshore waters. Southwest to west swell from Marie are producing seas of 7 to 10 ft over the outer offshore waters from 30N to Punta Eugenia to the northwest corner of the offshore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate or weaker winds and mostly moderate seas are over the rest of the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate or lighter winds along with moderate seas are over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over some sections of the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will gradually weaken as it moves to near 25.2N 126.2W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50 kt, to near 26.3N 127.4W Tue afternoon, become post-tropical and move to near 28.0N 128.4W late Tue night, weaken to a remnant low near 30.0N 129.6W Wed afternoon, then move to near 32.2N 131.1W Thu morning and dissipate north of 30N Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected to briefly develop over the nearshore waters of Baja California and over some sections of the Gulf of California tonight into Tue as Marie moves farther away from the forecast waters. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin late Tue night into early Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast to east winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft in south to southwest swell. Light to gentle winds along with moderate seas are elsewhere over these waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over some portions of the offshore waters, primarily south of northern Nicaragua. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. High pressure building north of the area by Wed will lead to strong gap winds and rough seas there, with winds possibly reaching near gale speeds Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Tue through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Marie located about 580 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie over the northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh northeast to east winds along with seas of 7 to 10 ft in east swell are over the far western waters north of 20N and west of about 135W. These conditions are forecast to merge with those associated to Tropical Storm Marie in about 24 hours. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in north to northeast swell generated by Tropical Storm Marie over the waters north of 13N between 118W and 135W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will gradually weaken as it moves to near 25.2N 126.2W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50 kt, to near 26.3N 127.4W Tue afternoon, become post-tropical and move to near 28.0N 128.4W late Tue night, weaken to a remnant low near 30.0N 129.6W Wed afternoon, then move to near 32.2N 131.1W Thu morning and dissipate north of 30N Fri afternoon. Long-period northwest to north swell is merging with cross- equatorial Southern Hemispheric swell south of about 2N and between 110W and 125W. This swell area is forecast to expand eastward through Wed as the primary swell direction becomes northwest to north, Seas from this swell are expected to be 7 to 9 ft. To the east, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is located several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system generally west-northwestward. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################