--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2025-01-16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC160406_C_KWBC_20250116040657_33751060-8022-TWDEP.txt ****0000005890**** AXPZ20 KNHC 160406 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 16 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds funneling through the Chivela Pass will continue to support gale-force NNE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Thu night. Peak seas in the Tehuantepec region during this period will be around 11-13 ft mainly on Thu. Winds will quickly diminish below gale- force early on Fri as return flow establishes across the Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, a second and stronger gale-force gap wind event is possible for the region by Sun evening, continuing through early next week. Gale winds to 40 kt and seas to 20 ft are forecast with this second event. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N90W to 04N114W. The ITCZ continues from 04N114W to 04N130W and beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 07N between 91W and 99W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the region due to a pair of surface troughs, one along Baja California Sur and another west of the Baja California Peninsula from 18N to 27N along 122W. This is supporting light to gentle winds across the Baja California offshore waters N of 22N along with moderate seas to 6 ft in NW swell. South of 22N, a tighter pressure gradient, support moderate NE winds off the coast of Baja California Sur. High pressure N of the area is shifting eastward and with that NW winds in the Gulf of California have diminished to moderate to fresh speeds and seas are 3-4 ft. These winds extend across the entrace of the Gulf as well as Jalisco offshore waters. Otherwise, gale-force winds prevail in the Tehuantepec region where peak seas are 8-10 ft. For the forecast, gale-force NNE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will continue through Thu night. Winds will quickly diminish below gale-force early on Fri as return flow establishes across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh NW winds in the Gulf of California will prevail mainly over the southern and entrance of the Gulf through Mon. A surface trough will develop near the entrance of the Gulf of California on Fri while a strong ridge extends to Los Cabos, which will result in moderate NNE winds along the Baja California offshores through the weekend. Looking ahead, a second and stronger gale-force gap wind event is forecast for the Tehuantepec region by Sun evening, continuing through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and seas to 8-9 ft are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate E winds associated with this gap wind event extend to the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador where seas are 5 ft in mixed E and NW swell. In the Gulf of Panama, winds are moderate to fresh from the NNE and seas are 3-4 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to fresh to strong speeds Sat and moderate to fresh speeds Sun. Rough seas are expected with this gap wind event. Moderate to fresh easterly winds from the Papagayo gap wind will continue to propagate across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Thu. Pulsing fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds on Thu and to light to gentle speeds over the weekend. Otherwise, light to gentle southerly winds between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands will reach moderate speeds Sat night into Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure of 1027 mb located N of area extends a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. A weakness in the ridge is being analyzed as a surface trough west of the Baja California Peninsula from 18N to 27N along 122W. With the reduction of the high pressure N of the area, NNE winds N of 20N have diminished to moderate speeds. However, NW swell continue to support 8-9 ft seas W of 131W. Far SW from the SW Mexican offshore waters, an area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds is present from 05N-16N and between 100W and 124W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate and seas are moderate. For the forecast, the surface trough to the west of the Baja California offshore waters will dissipate on Thu and then surface ridging will dominate the subtropical waters through the weekend. Northerly swell to the west of the surface trough will gradually subside before decaying on Thu morning. Otherwise, a surface trough is forecast to develop over tropical waters near 110W tonight and then propagate westward enhancing winds to fresh to locally strong speeds, and building seas to 10 ft through Sun night. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC160958_C_KWBC_20250116095927_25165836-9723-TWDEP.txt ****0000006011**** AXPZ20 KNHC 160958 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jan 16 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds funneling through the Chivela Pass will continue to support gale-force NNE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through tonight. Peak seas in the Tehuantepec region during this period will be around 11-13 ft. Winds will quickly diminish below gale-force early on Fri as return flow establishes across the Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, a second and stronger gale-force gap wind event is likely for the region by Sun evening, continuing through the middle of next week. Gale winds to 40 kt and seas to 20 ft are forecast with this second event. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W to 04N92W to 04N114W. The ITCZ continues from 04N114W to 04N130W and beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N E of 86W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 07N between 91W and 102W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the region due to a pair of surface troughs, one along western Mexico and another west of the Baja California Peninsula from 18N to 25N along 122W. This is supporting light to gentle winds across the Baja California offshore waters N of 20N along with moderate seas to 6 ft in NW swell. South of 20N, a tighter pressure gradient, support moderate NE winds off the coast of Baja California Sur. High pressure N of the area is shifting eastward and with that NW winds in the Gulf of California have diminished to moderate to locally fresh speeds and seas are 3-4 ft. These winds extend across the entrace of the Gulf as well as Jalisco offshore waters. Otherwise, gale-force winds prevail in the Tehuantepec region where peak seas are 11-12 ft. For the forecast, gale-force NNE winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will continue through tonight. Winds will quickly diminish below gale-force early on Fri as return flow establishes across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds in the Gulf of California will prevail mainly over the southern and entrance of the Gulf through Mon. A surface trough will develop near the entrance of the Gulf of California on Fri while a strong ridge extends to Los Cabos. This will result in moderate NNE winds along the Baja California offshores through the weekend. Looking ahead, a second and stronger gale-force gap wind event is likely for the region by Sun evening, continuing through the middle of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and seas to 8-9 ft are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate E winds associated with this gap wind event extend to the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador where seas are 5-6 ft in mixed E and NW swell. In the Gulf of Panama, winds are moderate to fresh from the NNE and seas are 4-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish to fresh to strong speeds Sat and moderate to fresh speeds Sun. Rough seas are expected with this gap wind event. Moderate to fresh easterly winds from the Papagayo gap wind will continue to propagate across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through today. Pulsing fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds today and to light to gentle speeds over the weekend. Otherwise, light to gentle southerly winds between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands will reach moderate speeds Sat night into Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure of 1029 mb located N of area extends a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. A weakness in the ridge is being analyzed as a surface trough west of the Baja California Peninsula 18N to 25N along 122W. With the slight weakening of the high pressure N of the area, NNE winds N of 20N have diminished to gentle to moderate speeds. However, NW swell continue to support 8-9 ft seas W of 132W. Far SW from the SW Mexican offshore waters, an area of fresh NE to E winds and rough seas to 9 ft is present from 05N-15N and between 107W and 123W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate and seas are moderate. For the forecast, the surface trough to the west of the Baja California offshore waters will dissipate today and then surface ridging will dominate the subtropical waters through the middle of next week. Northerly swell to the west of the surface trough will gradually subside before decaying later this morning. Otherwise, a surface trough will develop over the tropical waters near 115W-116W today and then propagate westward along with continued fresh to locally strong winds, and rough seas to 10 ft through Mon night. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC161603_C_KWBC_20250116160430_25165836-9749-TWDEP.txt ****0000005206**** AXPZ20 KNHC 161603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jan 16 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly winds funneling through the Chivela Pass will continue to support gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through tonight. Peak seas during this period will be around 12 ft. Winds will quickly diminish below gale-force early on Fri as return flow establishes across the western Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, a second and stronger gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec area by Sun night. N winds will rapidly increase to gale force by early Mon morning with seas building to 12 ft. Then, winds will further increase to 40 kt by early Mon afternoon with seas around 15 ft. Gale conditions and very rough seas are likely to persist through mid-week. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 06N95W. The ITCZ continues from 06N95W to 07N110W to beyond 06N140W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 109W and 112W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gale conditions will continue in the Tehuantepec region through tonight. Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California with a 1022 mb high pressure located near 27N116W. This is supporting light to gentle winds, with moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell, highest N of Punta Eugenia. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate NW winds prevail with seas of 3 ft or less. Fresh winds are near Cabo Corrientes while gale conditions and rough seas continue in the Tehuantepec region. Long period NW swell continue to propagate across the majority of the offshore Mexican waters. For the forecast, northerly winds funneling through the Chivela Pass will continue to support gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through tonight. Peak seas during this period will be around 12 ft. Winds will quickly diminish below gale-force early on Fri as return flow establishes across the western Gulf of Mexico. Looking ahead, a second and stronger gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec area by Sun night. A ridge will dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate Nw to N winds. Looking ahead, expect moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas in the central and southern Gulf of California Sat night through Mon as the pressure gradient tightens there. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE to E winds and rough seas are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 08N92W. In the Gulf of Panama, winds are moderate to fresh from the N and seas are 4 to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are elsewhere. For the forecast, strong NE to E winds and rough seas will persist in the Papagayo region through Fri night, then mainly moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail through Mon night. A stronger gap wind event is expected in the Papagayo area by Tue. Pulsing fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate speeds today and to light to gentle speeds over the weekend. Otherwise, light to gentle southerly winds between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands will reach moderate speeds Sat night into Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure of 1028 mb located N of area extends a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. Gentle to moderate winds are under the influence of the ridge. NW swell continue to support 8 to 9 ft seas N of 15N W of 132W. Far SW from the SW Mexican offshore waters, an area of fresh NE to E winds and rough seas to 9 ft is present from 05N-15N and between 107W and 123W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate and seas are moderate. For the forecast, a surface ridge will dominate the subtropical waters through the middle of next week. Northerly swell to the west of the surface trough will gradually subside before decaying later this morning. Otherwise, a surface trough will develop over the tropical waters near 115W-116W today and then propagate westward along with continued fresh to locally strong winds, and rough seas to 10 ft through Mon night. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################