--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-09-02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC020357_C_KWBC_20260902035811_38011292-1265-TWDEP.txt ****0000006104**** AXPZ20 KNHC 020357 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 18.3N 130.8W at 02/0300 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Peak seas are around 29 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 16N to 22N between 128W and 133W. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next several days. Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 16.1N 110.3W at 02/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 18 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 04N to 20N between 102W and 116W. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 88W, extending across Central America to 04N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 04N and E of 91W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N96W to 12N105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 02N to 11N and W of 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Marie centered SW of Mexico. Tropical Storm Marie is near 16.1N 110.3W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Aside from the impacts of Tropical Storm Marie, a weak pressure gradient across the offshore waters of Baja California sustains moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. A slightly tighter pressure gradient in the northern Gulf of California is allowing for locally fresh southerly winds and slight seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.9N 111.4W Wed morning, move to 17.9N 112.8W Wed evening, 18.7N 114.3W Thu morning, 19.4N 115.9W Thu evening, 19.8N 117.3W Fri morning, and 20.5N 118.8W Fri evening. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves near 21.8N 121.3W late Sat. Elsewhere, a tighter pressure gradient will result in fresh to locally strong southerly winds and moderate seas in the northern Gulf of California tonight into Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending outward to 88W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo through the workweek. Winds may pulse to strong speeds at night late this week into the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina centered between Mexico and Hawaii, and Tropical Storm Marie located southwest of Mexico. Tropical Storm Marie is near 16.1N 110.3W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Hurricane Karina is near 18.3N 130.8W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 946 mb. Aside from the impacts of Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the tropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, a small area of cross equatorial swell is noted south of the equator producing seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.9N 111.4W Wed morning, move to 17.9N 112.8W Wed evening, 18.7N 114.3W Thu morning, 19.4N 115.9W Thu evening, 19.8N 117.3W Fri morning, and 20.5N 118.8W Fri evening. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves near 21.8N 121.3W late Sat. Karina will move to 18.7N 132.3W Wed morning, 19.1N 134.2W Wed evening, 19.5N 136.1W Thu morning, 19.9N 138.0W Thu evening, 20.2N 139.8W Fri morning, and 20.7N 141.6W Fri evening. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves near 22.3N 144.3W late Sat. Elsewhere, the cross equatorial swell will remain south of 02N over the next few days, producing seas to 9 ft before subsiding late this week. $$ Ramos --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC020937_C_KWBC_20260902093813_38011292-1288-TWDEP.txt ****0000006280**** AXPZ20 KNHC 020937 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 18.5N 131.7W at 02/0900 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are around 42 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 16N to 21N between 129W and 134W. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible through Wednesday morning, followed by slow weakening over the next several days. However, Karina is likely to remain a major hurricane into Thursday. Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 16.7N 111.0W at 02/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 28 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 09N to 21N between 105W and 116W. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Marie is likely to become a hurricane later today. Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W, extending across Guatemala to 07N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 03N to 16N between 87W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N92W to 10N101W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 01N to 12N between 118W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Marie centered SW of Mexico. Tropical Storm Marie is near 16.7N 111.0W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Aside from the impacts of Tropical Storm Marie, a weak pressure gradient across the offshore waters of Baja California sustains moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. A slightly tighter pressure gradient in the northern Gulf of California is allowing for locally fresh southerly winds and slight seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.5N 112.1W this afternoon, move to 18.4N 113.6W Thu morning, 19.1N 115.1W Thu afternoon, 19.7N 116.6W Fri morning, 20.2N 118.0W Fri afternoon, and 20.8N 119.3W Sat morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves near 22.1N 121.8W early Sun. Elsewhere, a tighter pressure gradient will result in fresh to locally strong southerly winds and moderate seas in the northern Gulf of California through Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending outward to 88W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo through the workweek. Winds may pulse to strong speeds at night late this week into the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina centered between Mexico and Hawaii, and Tropical Storm Marie located southwest of Mexico. Tropical Storm Marie is near 16.7N 111.0W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Hurricane Karina is near 18.5N 131.7W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 940 mb. Aside from the impacts of Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the tropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, a small area of cross equatorial swell is noted W of the Galapagos Islands producing seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.5N 112.1W this afternoon, move to 18.4N 113.6W Thu morning, 19.1N 115.1W Thu afternoon, 19.7N 116.6W Fri morning, 20.2N 118.0W Fri afternoon, and 20.8N 119.3W Sat morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves near 22.1N 121.8W early Sun. Karina will move to 19.0N 133.1W this afternoon, 19.5N 135.0W Thu morning, 19.9N 137.0W Thu afternoon, 20.4N 139.0W Fri morning, 20.8N 140.8W Fri afternoon, and 21.4N 142.3W Sat morning. Karina will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.9N 144.8W early Sun. Elsewhere, the cross equatorial swell will remain south of 02N over the next few days, producing seas to 9 ft before subsiding late this week. $$ Ramos --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC021530_C_KWBC_20260902153115_21889468-1028-TWDEP.txt ****0000006109**** AXPZ20 KNHC 021530 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 18.8N 132.8W at 02/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are around 42 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 17N-22N between 131W-135W. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today, followed by slow weakening over the next several days. However, Karina is likely to remain a powerful hurricane the next couple of days. Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 17.1N 111.7W at 02/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are around 28 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 13N-21N between 105W-114W. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion should continue through the weekend. Some strengthening is forecast through Friday, and Marie is likely to become a hurricane later today. A gradual weakening trend is expected over the weekend. Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W, extending across Guatemala to 07N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 03N to 16N between 87W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W and extends to 11N108W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 07N east of 91W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong is also occurring from 03N-11N west of 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Marie centered southwest of Mexico. Aside from Marie, winds are NW fresh offshore of Baja California Norte with seas 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft over Pacific waters and 1-4 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie is near 17.1N 111.7W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.8N 112.8W this evening, move to 18.7N 114.2W Thu morning, 19.4N 115.8W Thu evening, 20.1N 117.3W Fri morning, 20.7N 118.6W Fri evening, and 21.3N 119.8W Sat morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to 22.5N 122.2W early Sun. Elsewhere, a tighter pressure gradient will result in fresh to strong S to SE winds in the N Gulf of California through Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh E winds with seas 5-6 ft are occurring today over the Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 07N east of 91W. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central America will sustain fresh to locally strong E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail across forecast waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina centered between Mexico and Hawaii, and Tropical Storm Marie located southwest of Mexico. Aside from the impacts of Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie, moderate or weaker winds dominate the tropical NE Pacific. Otherwise, a small area of cross equatorial swell from the southwest is noted well west of the Galapagos Islands producing seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, Karina will move to 19.2N 134.2W this evening, 19.7N 136.2W Thu morning, 20.1N 138.2W Thu evening, 20.5N 140.0W Fri morning, 21.0N 141.7W Fri evening, and 21.7N 143.1W Sat morning. Karina will weaken to a tropical storm over 23.6N 145.1W early Sun. Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.8N 112.8W this evening, move to 18.7N 114.2W Thu morning, 19.4N 115.8W Thu evening, 20.1N 117.3W Fri morning, 20.7N 118.6W Fri evening, and 21.3N 119.8W Sat morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to 22.5N 122.2W early Sun. Elsewhere, the cross equatorial SW swell will diminish below 8 ft by Thu. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern Mexico over the weekend. Gradual development is possible early next week as the system moves west- northwestward around 10 kt, and is likely to remain well offshore of Mexico. Chance of tropical cyclone formation is low...20 percent...through 7 days. $$ Landsea --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC022125_C_KWBC_20260902212617_21889468-1053-TWDEP.txt ****0000005839**** AXPZ20 KNHC 022125 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 18.9N 133.8W at 02/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Peak seas are around 42 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 18N-21N between 133W-136W. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A slow weakening trend is forecast the next few days, followed by a more steady rate of weakening. Karina is likely to remain a hurricane the next couple of days. Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 18.0N 112.5W at 02/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are around 30 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 12N-19N between 108W-115W. The NW motion should continue through tonight followed by a turn more west-northwestward for the next several days. Additional strengthening is forecast through Friday, and Marie is likely to become a hurricane tonight. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin by this weekend. Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W, extending across SE Mexico to 07N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 06N east of 93W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W and extends to 09N106W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 06N east of 93W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong is also occurring from 05N-12N between 115W-133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Marie centered southwest of Mexico. Aside from Marie, winds are NW fresh offshore of Baja California Norte with seas 5-6 ft as well as SE fresh winds over the N Gulf of California with seas 2-4 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft over Pacific waters and 1-4 ft over the central and S Gulf of California. For the forecast, Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.7N 113.5W Thu morning, move to 19.5N 115.0W Thu afternoon, 20.2N 116.5W Fri morning, 20.8N 117.8W Fri afternoon, 21.5N 119.1W Sat morning, and 22.1N 120.3W Sat afternoon. Marie will weaken to a tropical storm over 23.5N 122.5W Sun afternoon. Elsewhere, a tighter pressure gradient will result in fresh to strong S to SE winds in the N Gulf of California through Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-6 ft are present across the forecast waters this afternoon. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 06N east of 93W. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central America will sustain moderate to locally fresh strong E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo through the next several days. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail across forecast waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina centered between Mexico and Hawaii, and Tropical Storm Marie located southwest of Mexico. Aside from the impacts of Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie, moderate or weaker winds with seas 5-7 ft dominate the tropical NE Pacific. Otherwise, a small area of cross equatorial swell from the southwest is noted well west of the Galapagos Islands producing seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, Karina will move to 19.3N 135.2W Thu morning, 19.8N 137.2W Thu afternoon, 20.2N 139.0W Fri morning, and move west of our forecast waters Fri afternoonn. Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 18.7N 113.5W Thu morning, move to 19.5N 115.0W Thu afternoon, 20.2N 116.5W Fri morning, 20.8N 117.8W Fri afternoon, 21.5N 119.1W Sat morning, and 22.1N 120.3W Sat afternoon. Marie will weaken to a tropical storm over 23.5N 122.5W Sun afternoon. Elsewhere, the cross equatorial SW swell will diminish below 8 ft by tomorrow. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern Mexico over the weekend. Gradual development is possible during the early to middle part of next week as the system moves west-northwestward around 10 kt and is likely to remain well offshore of Mexico. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################