--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-06-24 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC240259_C_KWBC_20260624030037_32440682-3641-TWDEP.txt ****0000004959**** AXPZ20 KNHC 240259 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central and Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP94): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south- southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. However, earlier satellite wind data suggest the system lacks a well-defined center. A tropical depression could still form within the next day or so while environmental conditions remain favorable for development as the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 15 kt. By Thursday, the system is forecast to move into an unfavorable environment, ending its chances for further development. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 13N to 15N between 100W and 102W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. An area of low pressure has developed along this tropical wave near 16.5N113.5W. Please see the Special Featuers section above for more information on this low. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N95W to 11N115W to 08N127W. The ITCZ extends from 08N127W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 84W and 92W, and from 08N to 10N between 120W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails west of the area, while a surface tough is in the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of Baja California, extending southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate winds are also in the Gulf of California as well as south of southern Mexico, except fresh to strong in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are moderate or less over the discussion waters. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and a surface trough over the Gulf of California will support moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California through tomorrow. Gap winds will increase in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. These N to NE winds should peak at strong to locally near gale on Wed and Wed night. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be quiescent, except for large swell off southern Mexico by the end of the week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo area, where seas are estimated to be 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event that may last into early next week. Elsewhere winds should remain quiescent until the end of the week. Large S swell should reach the equatorial waters Wed through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more information on EP94. Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 130W, where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft with a component of SW swell prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. For the forecast aside from EP94, a low pressure system is likely to form this weekend over the central portion of the East Pacific basin. Some slow development of this system is possible after that time, and it could become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC240856_C_KWBC_20260624085639_32440682-3661-TWDEP.txt ****0000005691**** AXPZ20 KNHC 240856 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure area south of Clarion Island (EP94): 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 17.5N115W or about 60 nm SSW of Clarion Island, along a tropical wave. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active within 45 nm of the center. Recent satellite wind data suggest the circulation is a little better defined and a tropical depression could still form within the next day or so while environmental conditions remain favorable for development. This system is moving to the west to west- northwest at 15 to 20 mph, and by Thursday it is forecast to move into an unfavorable environment, ending its chances for further development. Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas may accompany the low pressure or remnant trough as it moves westward along roughly 20N through Sat. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 13N to 15N between 100W and 102W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. An area of low pressure, EP94, is along this tropical wave near 17.5N115W. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on this low pressure system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N95W to 11N115W to 08N127W. The ITCZ extends from 08N127W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 84W and 92W, and from 08N to 10N between 120W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Near-gale force gap winds are likely ongoing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. These gap winds are due to lowering pressure farther south across the deep tropics. Rough seas up to at least 9 ft are building farther downstream in response to the strong to near-gale force plume of gap winds. Farther west, a recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong just to the southeast of Clarion Island, associated with the developing low pressure area known as EP94 described in the Special Features section. Concurrent altimeter passes showed 5-7 ft seas across the Revillagigedo Islands. Farther north, the same scatterometer pass indicated moderate to fresh near the coast of Baja California south of San Quintin. Elsewhere, mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft combined seas in a mix of swell, except for 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, lowering pressure over the deep tropics is inducing near-gale force gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today, with fresh to strong gap winds pulsing mainly late at night thereafter through Fri night. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be quiescent, except for large swell off southern Mexico by the end of the week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong gap winds over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo area, where seas are estimated to be 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event that may last into early next week. Elsewhere winds should remain quiescent until the end of the week. Large S swell will move into the equatorial waters into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more information on EP94. Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 130W, where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft with a component of SW swell prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. For the forecast aside from EP94, another low pressure system is likely to form this weekend south of the Revillagigedo Islands. Some slow development of this system is possible after that time, and it could become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Regardless of development, a plume of fresh E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas may develop from roughly the Gulf of Papagayo to south of the Revillagigedo Islands by late in the week. Farther south, large southerly swell to 8 ft will move into the waters south of the equator between 90W and 120W starting Thu. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC241550_C_KWBC_20260624155042_32440682-3682-TWDEP.txt ****0000005297**** AXPZ20 KNHC 241550 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jun 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure area south of Clarion Island (EP94): 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 18N116W or about 80 NM WSW of Clarion Island, along a tropical wave. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is active active within 60 NM of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also noted from 10N-16N between 113W-120W. Peak winds with the low are near 25 kt with highest seas of 7 ft. A tropical depression could still form today while environmental conditions remain marginally conducive. This system is moving to the west to west- northwest at 15 to 20 kt, and by Thursday it is forecast to move across cooler waters, ending its chances for further development. There is a medium...50 percent...chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N-15N between 90W-96W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is active from 09N-15N between 98W-104W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 116W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. An area of low pressure, Invest EP94, is along this tropical wave near 18N116W. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on this low pressure system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica at 08N83W to 11N106W to 07N130W. The ITCZ extends from 07N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-12N between 105W-112W and from 00N-09N between 125W-133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to near-gale N to NE gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning with seas 7-9 ft. Winds are SE to E fresh to strong with seas to 7 ft west of the Revillagigedo Islands in association with Invest EP94. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-6 ft in S to SW swell for Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is active from 09N-15N between 98W-104W in association with a tropical wave. For the forecast, low pressure over the deep tropics is inducing strong to locally near-gale N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today. Fresh to strong gap winds pulsing mainly late at night and morning are expected thereafter through Fri. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be quiescent. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are NE fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 7-8 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the NE Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event. Fresh to strong NE to E winds should last into early next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain quiescent until the end of the week. Large S swell moving into the equatorial waters will continue through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more information on Invest EP94. A surface ridge extends from a 1033 mb high at 38N151W east- southeastward to 30N130W to 23N112W. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades. Aside from winds from EP94, the remainder of the winds across the open Pacific are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-8 ft in mixed N and S to SW swell. For convection, see sections above about tropical waves and the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast aside from EP94, another low pressure system is likely to form this weekend or early next week over the central portion of the East Pacific basin. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the early to middle part of next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance is near 0 percent through 48 hours, but is medium...60 percent...through 7 days. Elsewhere, large seas due to mixed SW and SE swell will be moving across our southern border tonight through the weekend. 8 ft seas should reach up to at most 02N before diminishing. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC242101_C_KWBC_20260624210130_9109880-6786-TWDEP.txt ****0000005126**** AXPZ20 KNHC 242101 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jun 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure area west of Clarion Island (EP94): 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 18N117.5W or about 160 NM west of Clarion Island, along a tropical wave. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is active within 60 NM of the center. Peak winds with the low are near 25 kt with highest seas of 7 ft. A tropical depression could still form today while environmental conditions remain marginally conducive. However, this system is moving quickly toward cooler waters, and by Thursday it should encounter these unfavorable conditions, ending development chances. There is a medium...40 percent...chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W, south of 16N, moving west around 20 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 08N-15N between 93W-103W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is active from 08N-16N between 103W-112W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 117W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. An area of low pressure, Invest EP94, is along this tropical wave near 18N117.5W. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on this low pressure system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N82W to 11N107W to 08N134W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 08N-15N between 93W-103W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is active from 08N-16N between 103W-112W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 03N-06N between 84W-89W as well as from 05N-15N between 113W-121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon with seas 7-9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-6 ft in S to SW swell for Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 08N-15N between 93W-103W. For the forecast, low pressure over the deep tropics will be inducing fresh to strong N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be quiescent. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are NE fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 7-9 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the NE Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event. Fresh to strong NE to E winds should last into early next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain quiescent. Large S swell moving into the equatorial waters tonight will continue through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more information on Invest EP94. Winds are SE to E fresh to strong with seas to 7 ft west near 20N120W in association with Invest EP94. A surface ridge extends from a 1033 mb high at 38N144W east-southeastward to 30N127W to 25N115W. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades. The remainder of the winds across the open Pacific are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-8 ft in mixed N and S to SW swell. For convection, see sections above about tropical waves and the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast aside from EP94, another low pressure system is likely to form this weekend or early next week over the central portion of the East Pacific basin. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the early to middle part of next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance is near 0 percent through 48 hours, but is medium...60 percent...through 7 days. Elsewhere, large seas due to mixed SW and SE swell will be moving across our southern border tonight through the weekend. 8 ft seas should reach up to at most 01N before diminishing. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################