--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2024-10-30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC300214_C_KWBC_20241030021508_18087986-4185-TWDEP.txt ****0000006282**** AXPZ20 KNHC 300214 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 85W, from 05N northward across Costa Rica and eastern Nicaragua, moving west at around 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 83W and 87W. A tropical wave is near 99W, from 04N to 14N, moving west at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 89W and 100W. A tropical wave is near 119W, from 05N to 17N, moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 114W and 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near 09N85W to 07N94W to 11N114W to 10N120W to low pressure, Invest EP91, near 12N133W to 08N138W. The ITCZ extends from 08N138W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 102W and 112W and from 05N to 15N between 121W and 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where seas are 8 to 10 ft. High pressure is building across the waters of the Gulf of California and offshore Baja California Peninsula. Moderate to fresh winds are offshore Baja California, locally strong between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters, and moderate to locally fresh in the Gulf of California. Meanwhile, large NW to N swell of 8 to 14 ft is offshore Baja California, highest near 30N118W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft elsewhere over the open waters. In the Gulf of California, seas are 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish overnight. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse thereafter, except fresh to locally strong Thu night through early Sat. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse nearshore Baja California with moderate to fresh farther offshore overnight, gradually diminishing thereafter. Large NW swell offshore Baja California will slowly decay into Thu night. Looking ahead, two new areas of large NW swell are likely to impact the waters offshore Baja California starting Fri through the weekend, associated with the next cold front. Winds will funnel through middle and northern Baja California passes into the Gulf of California and increase to fresh to strong Sat night through Sun night. Similar winds are possible from offshore Punta Eugenia northward Sun. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE winds are present across the Papagayo region. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail. Seas are mainly 4 to 6 ft in southerly swell, except 3 to 5 ft offshore Colombia and Panama. Scattered thunderstorms are present across portions of the offshore waters as described in the tropical waves section above. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong offshore winds will pulse across the Papagayo region overnight, then moderate to fresh through Wed night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere, freshening south of the monsoon starting Thu, then possibly becoming strong for the end of the week into the weekend. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial southerly swell will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters, likely building to around 8 ft south of the monsoon trough Fri into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough is near 139W from 14N to 20N. Fresh to strong winds are present from roughly 16N to 25N between 125W and 140W due to a tight pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure over the waters north of 20N. Low pressure, Invest EP91, is embedded in the monsoon trough near 12N133W at 1008 mb with nearby convection described above. Another broad area of low pressure is associated with a tropical wave analyzed near 119W as described more above. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere north of 10N or so to the west of 115W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters. For seas, NW to N swell of 8 ft or greater covers the waters west of a line from Cabo San Lucas to 10N140W, up to 13 ft in central portions. For the forecast, while Invest EP91 is not any better organized since yesterday 1600 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California, a tropical depression could still form within a few days while the low moves W at 10 to 15 kt. This system is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Basin by the end of the week. Meanwhile, some slow development is possible during the next few days with the broad low/tropical wave near 119W, roughly 1000 nm SW of the southern tip of Baja California, as it moves slowly to the west- northwest. By the end of the week, however, upper- level winds should become less conducive for development. Elsewhere, the surface trough currently along 139W will move west of the area overnight. Fresh to strong winds between high pressure across the northern waters and these features will pulse from roughly 10N to 25N and west of 115W through the end of the week while shifting west. For seas, the area of NW to N swell will cover much of the waters north of 10N and west of 110W through Wed while gradually decaying. A new set of large northerly swell is likely to spread south of 30N by late Thu, with seas of 8 ft or greater reaching to most of the waters north of 10N and west of 110W by Sat night. A reinforcing set may drop south of 30N Sun into early next week. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################