--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-05-12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC120254_C_KWBC_20260512025506_32440682-40-TWDEP.txt ****0000005917**** AXPZ20 KNHC 120254 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue May 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N74W to 07.5N79W to 10N85W to 05.5N93W to 09.5N110W to 05.5N121W to 09N135W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N E of 97W, and from 05.5N to 07.5N W of 137W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 14.5N between 101W and 110W, and from 03.5N to 11N between 110W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure well west- northwest of the area near 31N135W to offshore SW Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed from near the SW Arizona/California border to across the eastern coastline of the Gulf of California. This pattern supports moderate N to NE winds offshore Baja California Sur extending to 20N, and light to gentle W to NW winds offshore Baja California Norte. Seas offshore Baja California are mainly 5-6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. Light and variable winds with 1-3 ft seas prevail across the Gulf of California, except for moderate NW winds near the coast of Los Mochis and northern Sinaloa. Mainly light to gentle variable winds with 5-6 ft seas dominated by SW swell cover the remainder of the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters to Tehuantepec. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over the offshore waters S of 15N and between 101W and 110W due to a persistent active mid to upper-level trough. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight and then pulse at night through early Thu, reaching near gale-force at times during the late night and early morning hours, in the wake of cold front N of the area. Seas will build to rough at times with the stronger winds. Fresh to strong SW winds may very briefly develop in the northern Gulf of California Tue night as a trough develops. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters, increasing to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California by the end of the week as ridging west of the peninsula strengthens. Winds may increase to fresh to strong well offshore Baja California Norte this weekend. Mainly 5-7 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell will dominate the offshore waters, potentially building to 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte by the end of the week, then to 8-11 ft Sat. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E winds are offshore southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region and extend southwest to near 93W this evening. Seas are 6-7 ft with these winds. Moderate NW to N winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama and into the central coast of Colombia, where recent satellite altimeter data showed seas of 3-6 ft. Light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas in S-SW swell dominate the remainder of the offshore waters of Central and northern South America. Active convection continues across the offshore waters N of 01N and into the coastal waters of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia as described above. For the forecast, fresh NE to E winds will pulse to strong offshore of the Papagayo region through at least the remainder of the week, mainly at night into the early morning hours, building seas locally to rough at times. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the waters south of 09N through Tue evening. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge extends from 1021 mb high pressure near 33N135W to offshore SW Mexico, dominating the waters N of 10N and W of 110W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail N of the monsoon trough to 25N and west of 110W. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere, including S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 6-8 ft south of a line from roughly 00N97W to 20N140W in mixed swell. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell across the remainder of the open waters, except 7-8 ft in S-SW swell S of the Equator and W of 100W. For the forecast, the ridge will begin to weaken as the high center drifts northward tonight through Tue, ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, N of the ITCZ to about 22N and W of 120W through Tue, with seas of 6-8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the week. New high pressure will begin to build across the region from the NW early Wed through Fri to produce fresh trade winds S of 20N and W of 125W, with seas building 7-10 ft. Winds may strengthen slightly to fresh to strong across the N-central waters by the weekend with seas building there as a result. Rough seas to around 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the far southwestern waters S of the Equator to 120W, and will gradually spread eastward in coverage to near 100W tonight. Seas of around 8 ft may persist across this same area through the end of the week and into the weekend. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC120842_C_KWBC_20260512084247_9109880-3061-TWDEP.txt ****0000006075**** AXPZ20 KNHC 120842 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue May 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N74W to 09N86W to 03.5N92W to 09N110W to 05N119W to 08N134W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 10N E of 101W, from 03N to 14N between 105W and 113W, and from 03N to 11N W of 113W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure well west- northwest of the area near 33N134W to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. A surface trough is analyzed from near the SW Arizona/California border across the Gulf of California and into the western Mexican coast. This pattern supports gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the Baja waters from Punta Eugenia southward to near 20N, and light to gentle NW winds offshore Baja California Norte. Seas offshore Baja California are mainly 5-6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. Light and variable winds with 1-2 ft seas prevail across the Gulf of California, except for 3 to 4 ft seas across the entrance. Mainly light to gentle variable winds with 5 ft seas dominated by SW swell cover the remainder of the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters to Puerto Angel. A small area of scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring across coastal portions of Chiapas before midnight has shifted southwestward across the Gulf of Tehuantepec in recent hours and exploded into a large cluster of intense thunderstorms that have expanded further southwest to offshore of Puerto Angel. This occurred just as strong gap winds were spilling into the Tehuantepec waters. Strong and gusty winds to gale-force and rough seas are very likely to by accompanying this activity. For the forecast, strong northerly gap winds have begun across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and will then pulse to near 30 kt each night through early Thu, reaching near gale-force at times during the late night and early morning hours, as a cold front moves across SE Mexico. Seas will build to around 10 ft at night with the stronger winds. Fresh to locally strong SW winds will briefly develop in the northern Gulf of California Tue evening and night as a trough develops there. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters, increasing to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California Wed through Fri as ridging west of the Baja peninsula strengthens. Winds may increase to fresh to strong well offshore Baja California Norte this weekend. Mainly 5-7 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell will dominate the offshore waters, potentially building to 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte by Fri night, then to 8-11 ft late Sat. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong E winds are offshore southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region and extend offshore to 88W tonight. Seas are 6-7 ft with these winds. Moderate NW to N winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama, where seas are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas in S-SW swell dominate the remainder of the offshore waters of Central and northern South America. Active convection continues across the offshore waters N of 01N and into the coastal waters of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia as described above. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to locally strong offshore of the Papagayo region through Thu night, mainly at night into the early morning hours, building seas locally to rough at times. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the waters south of 09N through Wed evening. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure near 33N134W to offshore Cabo Corrientes, dominating the waters from 10N to 23N and W of 110W with gentle to moderate trade winds. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere, including S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 7-8 ft in mixed swell across the zone of moderate trade winds from 10N to 17N and W of 120W. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell across the remainder of the open waters, except 7-8 ft in S-SW swell S of the Equator and W of 102W. For the forecast, the ridge has begin to weaken as the high center is drifting northward tonight, ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, N of the ITCZ to about 22N and W of 120W through Tue, with seas of 6-8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the week. New high pressure will begin to build across the region from the NW early Wed through Fri to produce fresh trade winds S of 23N and W of 125W, with seas building 7-9 ft. N winds are expected to strengthen slightly to fresh to strong across the NE and north-central waters by the weekend with seas building there as a result. Rough seas to around 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the far southwestern waters S of the Equator to 120W, and will gradually spread eastward in coverage to near 100W today. Seas of around 8 ft may persist across this same area through the end of the week and into the weekend. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC121443_C_KWBC_20260512144412_32440682-66-TWDEP.txt ****0000006020**** AXPZ20 KNHC 121443 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue May 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 05N100W to 08N111W to 05N119W to 08N133W to 06N140W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 79W and 89W, from 01N to 09N between 90W and 103W, from 03N to 15N between 107W and 110W, and within 240 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 114W and 134W. Similar convection is noted within 300 nm of Mexico between 92W and 99W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends across the waters offshore Baja California while troughing is analyzed from near the SW Arizona/California border southward across the Gulf of California. This pattern supports gentle to moderate winds across the waters, except in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where strong to near gale-force northerly winds are present. This is due to a tight pressure gradient with high pressure ridging building southward across eastern Mexico out ahead of an incoming cold front in the Gulf of America. Seas are 6-8 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 5-6 ft elsewhere offshore in a mix of long period SW and NW swells. In the Gulf of California, seas are 3 ft or less. Clusters of scattered moderate isolated strong convection are present within about 300 nm of the coast of Mexico between 92W and 99W. Strong and gusty winds to gale-force and rough seas are very likely to by accompanying this activity. For the forecast, strong to near gale-force northerly gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu morning as high pressure builds over eastern Mexico with cold front passing by in the Bay of Campeche. Seas will build to around 10 ft at times with these winds. Fresh to strong N winds will then pulse there into early Fri before diminishing. Fresh to locally strong SW winds will briefly develop in the northern Gulf of California this evening and night as a NE to SW trough develops there. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters, increasing to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California Wed through Fri as ridging west of the Baja peninsula strengthens. Winds may increase to fresh to strong well offshore Baja California Norte this weekend. Mainly 5-7 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell will dominate the offshore waters, potentially building to 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte by Fri night, then possibly to at least 8-11 ft late Sat. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong E winds are offshore southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region and extend offshore to 89W this morning. Seas are 6-7 ft with these winds. Moderate N-NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama, where seas are 3-5 ft. Light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas in southerly swell dominate the remainder of the offshore waters of Central and northern South America, except to 7 ft SW of the Galapagos Islands. Very active convection continues across the offshore waters from 04N to 09N and into portions of the coastal waters of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia as described above. Strong and gusty winds, and rough seas are very likely to by accompanying this activity. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to locally strong offshore of the Papagayo region through much of the week, mainly at night into the early morning hours, building seas locally to rough at times. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the waters south of 09N through at least Wed evening. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge extends across the waters N of 20N with broad troughing from N of the monsoon trough to 20N. This pattern supports gentle to moderate mainly NE trades across the waters N of the monsoon trough, along with 6-7 ft seas in mixed long period southerly and northerly swell. Mainly gentle E-SE winds prevail S of the monsoon trough, along with 6-7 ft seas, except 7-9 ft seas in southerly swell S of the Equator and W of 100W. Active convection is present near much of the monsoon trough axis as described above. For the forecast, the ridge will weaken slightly ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, N of the ITCZ to about 22N and W of 120W today, with seas of 6-7 ft across this area, locally to 8 ft tonight. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the week. New high pressure will begin to build across the region from the NW early Wed through Fri to produce fresh trade winds S of 23N and W of 125W, with seas building 7-9 ft. N winds are expected to strengthen slightly to fresh to strong across the NE and N-central waters by the weekend, with seas building there as a result. Rough seas to around 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the far southwestern waters S of the Equator and W of 100W, and will persist there today and tonight. Seas of around 8 ft may continue across this same area through the end of the week and into the weekend. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################