--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-07-29 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC290320_C_KWBC_20260729032058_47448518-9538-TWDEP.txt ****0000006678**** AXPZ20 KNHC 290320 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jul 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 18.3N 117.6W at 29/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are near 37 ft, or 11.5 m. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the center, with scattered moderate to strong convection extending from 12N to 16N between 112W to 116W. Genevieve is moving toward the west- northwest, and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Genevieve has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible over thee next day or so, and a weakening trend should begin thereafter. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the Baja California Peninsula and will reach Southern California Wednesday. These swells are likely to persist for a few more days, and could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W, extending southward from the Gulf of Honduras, across Honduras and Costa Rica, and into the far eastern Pacific to about 06N. This wave is moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is confined well inland over Central America. A tropical wave is along 106W, from 05N to 15W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 106W and 109W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N78W to 06N93W to 10N107W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 17N between 89W and 103W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Genevieve with tropical storm or greater winds now just beyond the offshore waters. Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for information about additional convection in the region. Away from the impacts of Genevieve, moderate to locally fresh NW winds associated with high pressure building in from the northwest are impacting waters N and W of Guadalupe Island. This same high is leading to moderate to locally fresh winds developing just offshore Cabo San Lucas and in portions of the far southern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California and moderate in the remaining offshore waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve is near 18.3N 117.6W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 948 mb. Genevieve will move to 18.6N 118.9W Wed morning, 19.3N 120.8W Wed evening, 20.0N 123.2W Thu morning, and 20.7N 125.6W Thu evening. Genevieve will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.5N 128.0W Fri morning, then be at 22.2N 130.7W Fri evening. Associated seas of rough or greater will finally subside across the offshore waters of Baja California Thu. Elsewhere, areas of fresh mainly westerly gap winds are likely through Wed night nearshore Baja California as high pressure builds southward to the west of the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh northerly are likely in the Gulf of Tehuantepec at night into the early morning Thu night and Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for information about convection in the region. High pressure northeast of the area is forcing fresh easterly gap winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate gap winds have also developed in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, mainly gentle or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region Wed night through the upcoming weekend, with occasionally rough seas. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama tonight and Wed night. Southerly winds may freshen offshore southern Colombia and from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected across the remainder of the waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Genevieve. For waters not being impacted by Hurricane Genevieve, 1025 mb high pressure centered near 33N140W dominates. The pressure pattern between the high and Genevieve are supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades from offshore southern California around the periphery of the ridge including from 20N to 30N and west of 120W, and from 10N to 20N and west of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are found south of 07N and west of 115W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas dominate the waters away from Genevieve. For the forecast, Hurricane will move to 18.6N 118.9W Wed morning, 19.3N 120.8W Wed evening, 20.0N 123.2W Thu morning, and 20.7N 125.6W Thu evening. Genevieve will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.5N 128.0W Fri morning. Away from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast across the remainder of the waters into next weekend. Looking ahead, fresh and rough northerly swell off California may push southward into the waters off Baja California Norte north of 27N and east of 130W by the end of the upcoming weekend into early next week. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################