--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-08-14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC140311_C_KWBC_20260814031234_4522426-571-TWDEP.txt ****0000005841**** AXPZ20 KNHC 140311 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Hernan is centered near 16.8N 132.0W at 14/0300 UTC, moving south at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 13 ft or 4 m. Hernan is a very sheered tropical cyclone with numerous moderate isolated strong convection noted between 120 nm and 510 nm in the NE quadrant of Hernan. Hernan is moving toward the south, and this general motion is expected to continue with a turn towards the south- southwest on Fri. A gradual turn to the west is forecast on Sat with that motion continuing through the weekend. Hernan is forecast to become a tropical depression on Friday and a post- tropical cyclone early Sat. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hernan NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 95.5W north of 01N to the northwest of the Galapagos Islands, moving slowly west around 5 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N74W to 08.5N84W to 07N102W. The ITCZ extends from 07N102W to 08N130W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 77W and 80W, from 03N to 11N between 90W and 102W, from 04N to 14N between 102W and 110W, from 03N to 09N between 110W and 120W, and from 00N to 09N between 120W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to locally fresh SW gap winds are impacting the northern Gulf of California. NW moderate to locally fresh winds are nearshore of Baja California, mainly the southern portion. Gentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere. Moderate seas are over the open waters off Mexico, with slight to moderate seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, pulses of fresh to strong gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early next week, near gale-force overnight at times, along with occasionally rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are forecast off Baja California through the next several days. A moderate pressure gradient will promote mostly gentle to moderate winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico along with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh easterly gap winds and moderate seas persist across and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are in the Gulf of Panama, with similar wind speeds but out of the south near the Gulf of Guayaquil. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in S to SW swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and occasionally rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region through early next week. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Fri night. Moderate winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Large southerly swell will start to move into the region starting tonight and Fri, then again early next week, with rough seas from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more on Tropical Storm Hernan. Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. Outside the immediate area impacted by Hernan, the pressure gradient between the ridge, Hernan, and Tropical Storm Lala in the central Pacific is supporting fresh to locally strong winds, and rough seas, from 13N to 26N between 128W and 140W. Rough seas in southerly swell cover the waters south of 06N between 96W and 127W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere, locally fresh south of the Equator and west of 100W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Hernan will weaken to a tropical depression near 16.2N 132.1W Fri morning, move to 15.8N 133.1W Fri evening, become a remnant low and move to 15.4N 134.8W Sat morning, 15.0N 136.9W Sat evening, 15.0N 139.0W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun evening when remnant rough seas should also subside. Elsewhere, southerly swell will maintain rough seas over the discussion waters south of 05N between 95W and 130W through the end of the week, then south of 02N between 95W and 125W this weekend. Another set of southerly swell is forecast to bring rough seas to the waters south of 06N between 90W and 125W early next week. Main moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere, except locally fresh near a passing tropical wave currently near 95.5W, and in the northwest waters where the pressure gradient will be regionally tight. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC140838_C_KWBC_20260814083835_31523192-743-TWDEP.txt ****0000006164**** AXPZ20 KNHC 140838 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Hernan is centered near 16.1N 131.9W at 14/0900 UTC, moving south at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 13 ft or 4 m. Hernan is a very sheered tropical cyclone with numerous moderate isolated strong convection noted between 180 nm and 510 nm in the NE quadrant of Hernan. Hernan is moving toward the south, and this general motion is expected to continue with a turn towards the south- southwest on Fri. A gradual turn to the west is forecast on Saturday with that motion continuing through the weekend. Hernan is forecast to become a tropical depression on Fri and a post-tropical cyclone early Sat. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hernan NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W north of the Equator to southern Mexico just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving west around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N74.5W to 09.5N85W to 07N102W. The ITCZ extends from 07N102W to 10.5N112W to 07.5N125W to 09N130W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 77W and 80W, from 02N to 05.5N between 91W and 101W, from 06N to 11N between 101W and 107W, from 06N to 13N between 107W and 113W, and within 360 nm south of the monsoon trough between 113W and 130W. Similar convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong northerly winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to locally fresh SW gap winds are impacting the northern Gulf of California as confirmed by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. NW moderate to locally fresh winds are nearshore of Baja California, mainly the southern portion. Gentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere. Moderate seas are over the open waters off Mexico, with slight to moderate seas over the central and southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh SW winds in the the northern Gulf of California will diminish by the afternoon. Pulses of fresh to strong gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early next week, near gale-force overnight at times, along with occasionally rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are forecast off Baja California through the next several days. A moderate pressure gradient will promote mostly gentle to moderate winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico along with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh easterly gap winds and moderate seas persist across and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds are in the Gulf of Panama, with similar wind speeds but out of the south near the Gulf of Guayaquil. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in S to SW swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and occasionally rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region through early next week. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight. Moderate winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend. Gentle to moderate winds are forecast elsewhere. Large southerly swell will start to move into the region today and tonight, then again early next week, with rough seas from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands Mon and Tue. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more on Tropical Storm Hernan. Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. Outside the immediate area impacted by Hernan, the pressure gradient between the ridge, Hernan, and Tropical Storm Lala in the central Pacific is supporting fresh to locally strong winds, and rough seas, from 16N to 22N between 126W and 137W. Rough seas in southerly swell cover the waters south of 06N between 95W and 127W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere, locally fresh south of the Equator and west of 100W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Hernan will weaken to a tropical depression near 15.9N 132.4W this afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 15.5N 133.9W Sat morning, 15.2N 135.8W Sat afternoon, 15.1N 137.8W Sun morning, 15.1N 140.1W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning, when remnant rough seas should also subside. Elsewhere, southerly swell will maintain rough seas over the discussion waters south of about 05N between 95W and 130W through the end of the week, then south of 02N between 95W and 125W this weekend. Another set of southerly swell is forecast to bring rough seas to the waters south of 06N between 90W and 125W early next week. Main moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere, except locally fresh near a passing tropical wave currently near 97W, and in the northwest waters where the pressure gradient will be regionally tight. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC141527_C_KWBC_20260814152837_31523192-762-TWDEP.txt ****0000004811**** AXPZ20 KNHC 141527 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Hernan is centered near 15.4N 132.1W at 14/1500 UTC, moving south at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 12 ft or 4 m. Hernan has scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 180 NM in the NE semicircle. Hernan is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression today and a post-tropical cyclone early Saturday.Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hernan NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W north of the Equator to southern Mexico just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving west around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica at 09N83W to 08N104W. The ITCZ begins there and extends to 12N128W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 04N east of 83W, from 04N-12N between 91W-107W, from 03N-15N between 113W-129W, and from 17N-21N between 125W-129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong N gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Sea are 5-7 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 4-6 ft over the remaining Pacific waters, and 1-4 ft over the Gulf of California. No significant deep convection is occurring. For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of America will continue to force pulses of fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec for the next several days. Additionally, moderate to fresh NW winds are forecast off of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain quiescent until at least early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are observed this morning over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker across forecast waters. Seas are 3-7 ft in SW swell over the remainder of forecast waters. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 04N east of 83W. For the forecast, high pressure over the W Caribbean is contributing toward fresh to strong E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night before weakening early next week. Looking ahead, large S swell should begin impacting the equatorial waters on Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more on Tropical Storm Hernan. Surface ridging extends from 30N125W to 20N112W to 14N100W. Aside from conditions associated with Hernan, the trades north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough are moderate or weaker and S to SW winds are also moderate or weaker. Long-period SW swell with seas of 8-9 ft are occurring south of 03N west of 95W. Elsewhere seas are 6-7 ft in mixed SW and NE swell. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 17N-21N between 125W-129W in association with an upper-level trough. For the forecast, Hernan will weaken to a tropical depression near 15.4N 133.0W this evening, become a remnant low and move to 15.1N 134.5W Sat morning, 15.0N 136.6W Sat evening, 14.9N 138.9W Sun morning, 15.1N 141.1W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico early next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while the system moves westward or west-northwestward well south of Mexico. Additionally, another area of low pressure could form well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula early next week. Gradual additional development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally westward. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC142113_C_KWBC_20260814211344_4522426-644-TWDEP.txt ****0000005012**** AXPZ20 KNHC 142113 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Hernan is centered near 15.6N 132.1W at 14/2100 UTC, stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 11 ft or 3.5 m. Hernan has scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 180 NM in the NE semicircle. Hernan is expected to turn toward the west and and move at a faster forward motion tonight into Saturday. Hernan is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by early Saturday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hernan NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W north of the Equator to southern Mexico just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving west around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Panama at 08N78W to 10N93W to 07N103W. The ITCZ begins there and extends to 16N122W. Costa Rica at 09N83W to 08N104W. The ITCZ begins there and extends to 12N128W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 04N east of 90W, from 03N-11N between 94W-104W, from 04N-16N between 110W-132W, and from 17N-20N between 121W-130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong N gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Sea are 5-7 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 4-6 ft over the remaining Pacific waters, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Mexican offshore zones. For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of America will continue to force pulses of fresh to strong with locally near- gale N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec for the next several days. Additionally, moderate to fresh NW winds are forecast off of the Baja California peninsula through Mon night. Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain quiescent until at least mid next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are observed this afternoon over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker across forecast waters. Seas are 4-7 ft in SW swell over the remainder of forecast waters. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 04N east of 90W. For the forecast, high pressure over the W Caribbean is contributing toward fresh to strong E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night before weakening early next week. Looking ahead, large S swell should begin impacting the equatorial waters on Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more on Tropical Depression Hernan. Surface ridging extends from 30N123W to 20N112W to 17N105W. Aside from conditions associated with Hernan, the trades north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough are moderate or weaker and S to SW winds are also gentle to fresh. Long-period SW swell with seas of 7-8 ft are occurring south of 03N west of 95W. Elsewhere seas are 5-7 ft in mixed SW and NE swell. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 17N-20N between 121W-130W in association with an upper-level trough. For the forecast, Hernan will move to 15.5N 133.2W Sat morning, become a remnant low and move to 15.4N 135.1W Sat afternoon, 15.4N 137.2W Sun morning, 15.4N 139.5W Sun afternoon, 15.5N 141.7W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon afternoon. An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico early next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while the system moves westward or west-northwestward well south of Mexico. Additionally, an area of low pressure could form well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula early next week. Gradual additional development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally westward. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################