--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-06-03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC030304_C_KWBC_20260603030538_49676782-4649-TWDEP.txt ****0000006993**** AXPZ20 KNHC 030304 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 03 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression One-E, the first depression of the 2026 eastern Pacific hurricane season, is centered near 09.7N 126.8W at 03/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 03 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are around 10 ft. Satellite imagery shows that the depression only become slightly better organized since becoming a tropical cyclone earlier today. Satellite imagery reveals numerous strong convection within 60 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 180 nm of the center in the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 10N between 124W and 127W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Tropical Depression One-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 86W southward to 03N, moving westward at around 5 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 08N between 83W and 89W. The tropical wave that was previously along 111W from 04N to 16N is no longer identifiable as a surface feature. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia westward to across eastern Panama and northern Costa Rica, and continues southwestward to 08N93W, and northwest from there to low pressure at 12N106W and westward to 11N124W. It resumes SW of Tropical Depression One-E at 09N131W to low pressure near 06N138W and to beyond the area at 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm S of the trough between 98W-102W, within 60 nm S of the trough between 89W-98W and within 60 nm N and S of the trough between 113W-115W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm N of the trough between 117W-124W, and from 04N to 07N between 123W-127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge that is anchored by a 1027 mb high center N of the area near 33N135W stretches southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is maintaining mainly moderate NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail, with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except for 3 to 5 ft in S to SW swell near the entrance to the Gulf. For the remainder of the offshore waters, light to gentle winds dominate along with 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in long-period S to SW swell, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, NW swell will move through the waters offshore Baja California Norte Wed night through early on Sat, decaying afterward. An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America and southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly northwestward or northward. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly light and variable winds are over the Central American offshore waters under a weak pressure pattern along with moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period S to SW swell. The exception is fresh gap winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle S to SW winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long- eriod SW swell are over the waters S of the monsoon trough between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. For the forecast, pulses of moderate to fresh gap winds will occur the the Papagayo region tonight and Wed night. Long period SW swell is forecast to enter the southern Galapagos adjacent waters tonight, then begin to subside Thu afternoon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America and southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly northwestward or northward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on recently formed developed Tropical Depression One-E located about 1250 nm SW of the southern tip of Baja California, and that is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wed over the far western portions of the basin. Otherwise, high pressure dominates waters N of the monsoon trough, with the pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough generally allowing for moderate to locally fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough to 25N. Seas over these waters are in the 7 to 9 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Mainly gentle winds are S of the monsoon trough. Seas over these waters are generally 5 to 7 ft, except for S of the Equator, where long-period southerly swell is causing rough seas W of 100W. The aforementioned high pressure will weaken some toward the end of the week as Tropical Cyclone One-E tracks NW over the western portion of the area, resulting a a lessening of the trade winds E of 130W. These winds will become light from 04N to 12N between 120W to 130W, with seas subsiding to moderate. Little change is expected elsewhere. Tropical Depression One-E is forecast to move to near 10.2N 127.4W Wed morning, then strengthen to a tropical storm near 11.1N 128.6W Wed evening with maximum sustained 40 kt gusts 50 kt, and continue to gradually strengthen as it reaches near 12.0N 129.8W Thu morning, to near 12.9N 131.1W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt, and maintain intensity as it reaches near 13.6N 132.4W Fri morning. One-E will then begin to weaken as it near 13.9N 133.3W Fri evening with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, and change little in intensity as it moves across the far western portions of the basin Sat afternoon. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################