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         TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES       

T1T2: AX
A1A2: PZ

Date: 2024-10-18

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Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC180332_C_KWBC_20241018033254_25165836-415-TWDEP.txt

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AXPZ20 KNHC 180332

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Fri Oct 18 2024



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0330 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient is

developing between low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea and

a building ridge over eastern Mexico. This pattern will support 

increasing N winds in the Bay of Campeche, and N winds will 

funnel through the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

Gale force winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri 

evening through Sat night, and seas of 10-12 ft will accompany 

these winds. Strong winds will persist into Sun night before

diminishing briefly on Mon. Winds will restrengthen to strong to

near gale force again late Mon through the middle of next week.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N115W. The ITCZ 

continues from 11N115W to a 1011 mb low centered near 11N132W, to

beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection

is noted from 09N to 13N between 104W and 113W, and from 08N to

112N west of 130W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Please see the Special Features section for information on the

Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehunatepec.



Troughing extends from southeastern California through central

Mexico and a 1027 mb high is centered near 39N136W. This pattern

is supporting moderate NW winds offshore of Baja California and

seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW gap winds and 

seas of 3-4 ft are noted across northern and central portions of 

the Gulf of California. Strong to near gale force N winds are 

occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and accompanying seas are 

8-10 ft. Elsewhere, gentle winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail.



For the forecast, strengthening low pressure in the northern Gulf

of California will promote fresh to strong S to SW winds into

early Fri before turning to the N later Fri morning into the 

afternoon. Associated seas of 4-7 ft are expected in this region.

Winds in this area will diminish this weekend. Increasing NW 

swell will promote locally rough seas offshore of Baja California

Norte Fri into Sat morning. Troughing will become established 

this weekend over the Gulf of California, and moderate to locally

fresh NW winds are expected from the Gulf of California 

southward to offshore of Michoacan and Guerrero Sun into next 

week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form 

during the middle part of next week well offshore of southwestern

Mexico. Thereafter, gradual development is possible as the 

system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Light to gentle SW winds prevail north of the monsoon trough, and

gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds are occurring south of 

the trough. Seas of 4-5 ft are noted in the offshore waters of

Central and South America.



For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds will

occur south of the monsoon trough through Fri, with locally

fresh winds occurring at times Sat into early next week. North of

the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds will prevail. Building

S to SW swell this weekend will lead to locally rough seas in the

waters offshore of Colombia and Ecuador, as well as in the far

offshore waters of Central America. Active convection 

accompanying a tropical wave across the west Caribbean will shift

westward into the Pacific offshore waters from Costa Rica to 

Guatemala Fri night through Sun morning. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A cold front extends southwestward from 1013 mb low centered near

30N127W. Fresh NE winds and locally rough seas are noted to the

north of the front. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong NE winds

are occurring north of the ITCZ, generally west of 125W and south

of 24N. Seas of 8-10 ft are likely occurring in this area. South

of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, moderate S to SE winds and seas

of 5-8 ft prevail.



For the forecast, the cold front will progress southward to near

25N through Sat morning before dissipating. A period of fresh NE

winds are anticipated immediately behind the front Fri and Fri 

night, with moderate NE swell moving into the regional waters.

Fresh to briefly strong trades will continue north of the ITCZ

through Fri before diminishing this weekend. NW swell across the

regional waters will gradually subside over the next few days. 

New southerly swell will cross the equator Fri through Sat.

 

$$

ADAMS


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