--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-09-04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC040327_C_KWBC_20260904032730_21889468-1169-TWDEP.txt ****0000006599**** AXPZ20 KNHC 040327 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0305 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 20.1N 138.4W at 04/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 41 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 18N to 22N between 136W and 140W. The WNW motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, although Karina is expected to remain a hurricane during the next day or two. Hurricane Marie is centered near 19.6N 116.3W at 04/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 39 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 23N between 110W and 120W. The WNW motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Some slight additional strengthening is possible tonight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by Saturday. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and are expected to spread northward to Southern California Friday through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 97W, extending from Oaxaca to 02N, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific through the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 07N97W and to 09N109W and then from 13N121W to 13N133W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 10N and east of 113W. Similar convection is found from 08N to 15N and west of 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Aside from the impacts of Hurricane Marie, the pressure gradient between a ridge located north of the area and the hurricane sustain moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate to rough seas across the offshore waters of Baja California. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are found in the northern and central Gulf of California. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are evident in the offshore waters of Mexico. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 19.6N 116.3W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Marie will move to 20.0N 117.5W Fri morning, 20.7N 118.8W Fri evening, 21.5N 120.0W Sat morning, 22.2N 121.0W Sat evening, 22.9N 121.9W Sun morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 23.5N 123.1W Sun evening. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to the 24.5N 126.0W late Mon. Elsewhere, a tight pressure gradient will result in fresh S to SE winds in the N Gulf of California into Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas extends southward into Central America and supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo waters. Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 03N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central America will sustain fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo into early next week. Thereafter, the gradient may tighten and strong gap winds may result. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands into Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Hurricane Karina centered well east of Hawaii, and Hurricane Marie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Away from the impacts of Hurricanes Karina and Marie, moderate or weaker winds with seas 5-7 ft are prevalent the tropical NE Pacific. For the forecast, Hurricane Karina is near 20.1N 138.4W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Karina will move to 20.4N 139.7W Fri morning, and move into the Central Pacific Fri afternoon. Hurricane Marie is near 19.6N 116.3W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Marie will move to 20.0N 117.5W Fri morning, 20.7N 118.8W Fri evening, 21.5N 120.0W Sat morning, 22.2N 121.0W Sat evening, 22.9N 121.9W Sun morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 23.5N 123.1W Sun evening. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to the 24.5N 126.0W late Mon. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern Mexico early next week. Gradual development is possible, and the system could become a tropical depression around the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, likely remaining well offshore of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC040913_C_KWBC_20260904091332_21889468-1192-TWDEP.txt ****0000006880**** AXPZ20 KNHC 040913 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0905 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 20.1N 138.4W at 04/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 41 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 19N to 22N and west of 137W. A general WNW motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, although Karina is expected to remain a hurricane during the next day or two. Hurricane Marie is centered near 19.9N 117.1W at 04/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 42 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 15N to 23N between 111W and 120W. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected within the next couple of days. Some strengthening is possible today, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin on Saturday. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and are expected to spread northward to Southern California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 98W, extending from southern Mexico to 02N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific through the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 07N93W and to 09N109W and then from 13N121W to 13N135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 02N to 12N and east of 115W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is found from 02N to 15N and west of 113W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas are affecting the offshore waters of Baja California not directly impacted by Hurricane Marie. The pressure gradient between this hurricane and the ridge to the north continue to sustain moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the northern and central Gulf of California. Elsewhere, primarily light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 19.9N 117.1W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Marie will move to 20.3N 118.1W this afternoon, 21.0N 119.4W Sat morning, 21.9N 120.5W Sat afternoon, 22.7N 121.4W Sun morning, 23.5N 122.3W Sun afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 24.2N 123.3W Mon morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to the 25.3N 125.8W early Tue. Elsewhere, a tight pressure gradient will result in fresh S to SE winds in the N Gulf of California through tonight. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may occur by the middle of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure located north of the islands extends southward into Central America and supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo waters. Farther south, moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 04N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail. Strong storms are noted in the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas are expected near these storms. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central America will sustain fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo into early next week. Thereafter, the gradient may tighten and strong gap winds may result. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands into Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Hurricane Karina centered well east of Hawaii, and Hurricane Marie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Away from the impacts of Hurricanes Karina and Marie, moderate or weaker winds with seas 5-7 ft are prevalent the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, Hurricane Karina is near 20.4N 139.3W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Karina will move into the Central Pacific late this morning or early afternoon. Hurricane Marie is near 19.9N 117.1W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Marie will move to 20.3N 118.1W this afternoon, 21.0N 119.4W Sat morning, 21.9N 120.5W Sat afternoon, 22.7N 121.4W Sun morning, 23.5N 122.3W Sun afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 24.2N 123.3W Mon morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to the 25.3N 125.8W early Tue. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern Mexico early next week. Gradual development is possible, and the system could become a tropical depression around the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, likely remaining well offshore of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC040925_C_KWBC_20260904092531_38011292-1496-TWDEP.txt ****0000006884**** AXPZ20 KNHC 040925 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0905 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 20.1N 138.4W at 04/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 40 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 19N to 22N and west of 137W. A general WNW motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, although Karina is expected to remain a hurricane during the next day or two. Hurricane Marie is centered near 19.9N 117.1W at 04/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 41 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 15N to 23N between 111W and 120W. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected within the next couple of days. Some strengthening is possible today, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin on Saturday. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and are expected to spread northward to Southern California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 98W, extending from southern Mexico to 02N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific through the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 07N93W and to 09N109W and then from 13N121W to 13N135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 02N to 12N and east of 115W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is found from 02N to 15N and west of 113W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas are affecting the offshore waters of Baja California not directly impacted by Hurricane Marie. The pressure gradient between this hurricane and the ridge to the north continue to sustain moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the northern and central Gulf of California. Elsewhere, primarily light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 19.9N 117.1W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Marie will move to 20.3N 118.1W this afternoon, 21.0N 119.4W Sat morning, 21.9N 120.5W Sat afternoon, 22.7N 121.4W Sun morning, 23.5N 122.3W Sun afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 24.2N 123.3W Mon morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to the 25.3N 125.8W early Tue. Elsewhere, a tight pressure gradient will result in fresh S to SE winds in the N Gulf of California through tonight. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may occur by the middle of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure located north of the islands extends southward into Central America and supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo waters. Farther south, moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 04N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail. Strong storms are noted in the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas are expected near these storms. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central America will sustain fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo into early next week. Thereafter, the gradient may tighten and strong gap winds may result. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands into Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Hurricane Karina centered well east of Hawaii, and Hurricane Marie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Away from the impacts of Hurricanes Karina and Marie, moderate or weaker winds with seas 5-7 ft are prevalent the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, Hurricane Karina is near 20.4N 139.3W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Karina will move into the Central Pacific late this morning or early afternoon. Hurricane Marie is near 19.9N 117.1W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Marie will move to 20.3N 118.1W this afternoon, 21.0N 119.4W Sat morning, 21.9N 120.5W Sat afternoon, 22.7N 121.4W Sun morning, 23.5N 122.3W Sun afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 24.2N 123.3W Mon morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to the 25.3N 125.8W early Tue. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern Mexico early next week. Gradual development is possible, and the system could become a tropical depression around the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, likely remaining well offshore of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################