--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-09-27 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC270348_C_KWBC_20260927034915_4522426-4782-TWDEP.txt ****0000011562**** AXPZ20 KNHC 270348 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 19.3N 113.1W, or about 280 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 27/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 125 kt. Satellite imagery shows numerous strong convection within 120 nm in the N semicircle and 90 nm in the S semicircle. Polo will maintain its current motion through tonight. A northward turn is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Mon. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Monday, move across the peninsula Mon night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tue. Polo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is expected during the next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a hurricane as it approaches Baja California Sur on Mon. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two. Swells will spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Odalys is centered near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 27/0300 UTC, moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Odalys continues to rapidly weaken. Satellite imagery depicts that the hurricane's convective structure has degenerated into an irregularly shaped central dense overcast (CDO), with much of the deeper convection displaced north of the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm in the N semicircle and 60 nm in the S semicircle. A general northward to north- northeastward motion is expected to continue through this evening, followed by a sharp turn to the south-southeast by early next week. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next several days, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post-tropical cyclone by Mon. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys. Gale Warning (Invest EP90): Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in association with an area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Additional development of the system is anticipated due to conducive environmental conditions and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so. A Gale Warning has been issued for the increasing winds associated with this low later Sun into Mon offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero. In addition, this system is likely to bring very heavy rainfall over portions of Guatemala and Southern Mexico through tonight, which may lead to life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides.Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. This system is forecast to continue moving slowly to the west-northwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across northern Costa Rica, to 10N85W to low pres, Invest EP90, to 13.5N105W. It resumes to the southwest of Polo at 16N118W to 10N130W to low pressure near 12N140W 1006 mb and beyond 140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 83W-96W, and also from 04N to 11N between 131W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys, and Invest EP90, which has prompted Gale warnings offshore southern Mexico. The impacts from these features encompass much of the basin. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas dominate the offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with slight seas in the central and northern gulf sections. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 19.3N 113.1W, or about 280 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 125 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Polo will move to near 20.7N 113.8W Sun morning, to near 22.4N 114.2W Sun evening, to near 24.2N 113.7W Mon morning, to near 25.8N 112.5W Mon evening, to near 27.6N 110.8W Tue morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.7N 108.4W Tue evening. Polo will dissipate late Wed. Hurricane Odalys is near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.9N 123.4W Sun morning, move to 22.3N 123.1W Sun evening, become post-tropical and move to 22.1N 122.7W Mon morning, weaken to a remnant low near 21.2N 122.3W Mon evening, to near 20.1N 122.0W Tue morning, and to near 19.2N 122.0W Tue evening. Odalys will dissipate late Wed. An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm activity increases. Additional development of the system is anticipated due to conducive environmental conditions and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so. This system is forecast to continue moving slowly to the west- northwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning has been issued for waters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting Sun afternoon in association with this system. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SE winds are offshore Guatemala as low pressure, Invest EP90, organizes southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, as low pressure organized to the west of the area, SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and locally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail across the offshore waters well into next week along with mostly moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys. Outside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward over the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it and Odalys has led to fresh northeast winds covering the waters west of a line from about 30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in long-period east to southeast swell. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere, although a swath of fresh southwest winds have developed from 05N to 10N and west of about 120W. The hurricanes have generated a broad area of rough seas from 08N to 29N and east of about 137W. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 19.3N 113.1W, or about 280 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 125 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Polo will move to near 20.7N 113.8W Sun morning, to near 22.4N 114.2W Sun evening, to near 24.2N 113.7W Mon morning, to near 25.8N 112.5W Mon evening, to near 27.6N 110.8W Tue morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.7N 108.4W Tue evening. Polo will dissipate late Wed. Hurricane Odalys is near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.9N 123.4W Sun morning, move to 22.3N 123.1W Sun evening, become post-tropical and move to 22.1N 122.7W Mon morning, weaken to a remnant low near 21.2N 122.3W Mon evening, to near 20.1N 122.0W Tue morning, and to near 19.2N 122.0W Tue evening. Odalys will dissipate late Wed. An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm activity increases. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or two as the system continues to move slowly to the west-northwest or northwest. This motion should keep it parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning has been issued for waters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting Sun afternoon in association with this system. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. The system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. There is a low chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next 7 days. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC271005_C_KWBC_20260927100605_31523192-4801-TWDEP.txt ****0000011746**** AXPZ20 KNHC 271005 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 260 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 27/0900 UTC, moving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Satellite imagery indicates a faint eye feature. The imagery shows numerous strong convection within 90 nm in the E semicircle, 120 nm in the SW quadrant and 180 nm in the NW quadrant. Peak seas are near 39 ft (12 M). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Mon, move across the peninsula Mon night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tue. Additional weakening is expected during the next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Mon. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Odalys is centered near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 750 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 27/0900 UTC, moving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are to near 24 ft (7 m). Odalys's overall convective structure has degenerated into an irregularly shaped central dense overcast. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection within 210 nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in the SE quadrant, 60 nm in the SE quadrant and 150 nm in the NW quadrant. Odalys will maintain its present motion through this evening, followed by a sharp turn to the south- southeast by early next week. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post-tropical cyclone by Mon. Newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near 12.2N 99.1W, or about 285 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico at 27/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection from 11N to between 96W and 102W. Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is forecast to move parallel to and offshore of the coast of Mexico. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression could become a tropical storm by tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo, Odalys and Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 nm to the east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. The system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across northern Costa Rica, to 10N85W to low pres, Invest EP90, to 13.5N105W. It resumes to the southwest of Polo at 16N118W to 10N130W to low pressure near 12N140W 1006 mb and beyond 140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 08N to 10N between 83W-96W, and also from 04N to 11N between 131W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys, and Invest EP90, which has prompted Gale warnings offshore southern Mexico. The impacts from these features encompass much of the basin. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas dominate the offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with slight seas in the central and northern gulf sections. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 19.3N 113.1W, or about 280 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 125 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Polo will move to near 20.7N 113.8W Sun morning, to near 22.4N 114.2W Sun evening, to near 24.2N 113.7W Mon morning, to near 25.8N 112.5W Mon evening, to near 27.6N 110.8W Tue morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.7N 108.4W Tue evening. Polo will dissipate late Wed. Hurricane Odalys is near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.9N 123.4W Sun morning, move to 22.3N 123.1W Sun evening, become post-tropical and move to 22.1N 122.7W Mon morning, weaken to a remnant low near 21.2N 122.3W Mon evening, to near 20.1N 122.0W Tue morning, and to near 19.2N 122.0W Tue evening. Odalys will dissipate late Wed. An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm activity increases. Additional development of the system is anticipated due to conducive environmental conditions and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so. This system is forecast to continue moving slowly to the west- northwest or northwest, staying parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning has been issued for waters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting Sun afternoon in association with this system. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh SE winds are offshore Guatemala as low pressure, Invest EP90, organizes southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, as low pressure organized to the west of the area, SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and locally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail across the offshore waters well into next week along with mostly moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo and Hurricane Odalys. Outside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward over the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it and Odalys has led to fresh northeast winds covering the waters west of a line from about 30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in long-period east to southeast swell. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere, although a swath of fresh southwest winds have developed from 05N to 10N and west of about 120W. The hurricanes have generated a broad area of rough seas from 08N to 29N and east of about 137W. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 19.3N 113.1W, or about 280 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 125 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Polo will move to near 20.7N 113.8W Sun morning, to near 22.4N 114.2W Sun evening, to near 24.2N 113.7W Mon morning, to near 25.8N 112.5W Mon evening, to near 27.6N 110.8W Tue morning, then move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.7N 108.4W Tue evening. Polo will dissipate late Wed. Hurricane Odalys is near 21.1N 123.6W, or about 770 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.9N 123.4W Sun morning, move to 22.3N 123.1W Sun evening, become post-tropical and move to 22.1N 122.7W Mon morning, weaken to a remnant low near 21.2N 122.3W Mon evening, to near 20.1N 122.0W Tue morning, and to near 19.2N 122.0W Tue evening. Odalys will dissipate late Wed. An area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to become better organized as shower and thunderstorm activity increases. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or two as the system continues to move slowly to the west-northwest or northwest. This motion should keep it parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. A Gale Warning has been issued for waters offshore Oaxaca and Guerrero starting Sun afternoon in association with this system. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. The system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. There is a low chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next 7 days. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC271030CCA_C_KWBC_20260927103105_31523192-4803-TWDEP.txt ****0000011709**** AXPZ20 KNHC 271030 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Correction NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026 Corrected Remainder of Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 260 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 27/0900 UTC, moving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Satellite imagery indicates a faint eye feature. The imagery shows numerous strong convection within 90 nm in the E semicircle, 120 nm in the SW quadrant and 180 nm in the NW quadrant. Peak seas are near 39 ft (12 M). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Mon, move across the peninsula Mon night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tue. Additional weakening is expected during the next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Mon. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Odalys is centered near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 750 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 27/0900 UTC, moving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are to near 24 ft (7 m). Odalys's overall convective structure has degenerated into an irregularly shaped central dense overcast. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection within 210 nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in the SE quadrant, 60 nm in the SE quadrant and 150 nm in the NW quadrant. Odalys will maintain its present motion through this evening, followed by a sharp turn to the south- southeast by early next week. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post-tropical cyclone by Mon. Newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near 12.2N 99.1W, or about 285 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico at 27/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection from 11N to between 96W and 102W. Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is forecast to move parallel to and offshore of the coast of Mexico. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression could become a tropical storm by tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo, Odalys and Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 nm to the east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. The system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across central Panama and to 08N82W to 06N90W and to 12N96W. It continues to the west of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E at 12N101W to 14N107W. It resumes south of Odalys at 17N124W and to 11N130W to low pressure near 11N140W 1008 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 07N to 14N west of 136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 11N between 94W-97W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. The impacts from these features encompass much of the basin. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California per latest scatterometer data. Moderate seas remain over the offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with slight seas in the central and northern gulf sections. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 20.3N 113.6W, or about 260 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Polo will move to near 21.6N 114.0W this afternoon, to near 23.4N 114.0W late tonight, to 25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near 26.8N 111.6W late Mon night, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 109.3W Tue afternoon, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.3N 106.8W late Tue night and dissipate early Thu. Hurricane Odalys is near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 750 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 123.2W this afternoon, become post-tropical and move to near 22.6N 122.9W Mon morning, to near 22.0N 122.6W Mon afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 21.0N 122.4W Tue morning, move to near 19.9N 122.2W Tue afternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed morning and dissipate early on Thu. Newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is near 12.2N 99.1W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west- northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Eighteen-E will move to near 12.7N 99.6W this afternoon, strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.2N 100.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, move to near 13.8N 102.2W Mon afternoon, to near 14.7N 104.1W late Mon night, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.7N 105.9W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, and move to near 16.9N 107.7W late Tue night Wed morning. Eighteen-E will move to near 18.7N 109.6W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. The forecast waters will be impacted by very hazardous conditions, for the most part, during the forecast period. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E located about 285 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico continues to organize. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in southwest swell over the western part of the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will continue to pull away from the offshore waters going into the early part of the week allowing for fresh southeast to south winds over the western portion of the Guatemala offshore waters to diminish, however, west to northwest swell will linger over those waters through the next few days. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail across the offshore waters well into the upcoming week along with mostly moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo and on Hurricane Odalys. Away from the tropical cyclones, the gradient between high pressure over the northwest portion of the area and Odalys has led to fresh northeast winds covering the waters west of a line from about 30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in long-period east to southeast swell. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere, although a swath of fresh southwest winds have developed from 05N to 10N and west of about 120W. The tropical cyclones have generated a broad area of rough seas from 08N to 29N and east of about 137W. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 20.3N 113.6W, or about 260 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Polo will move to near 21.6N 114.0W this afternoon, to near 23.4N 114.0W late tonight, to 25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near 26.8N 111.6W late Mon night, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 109.3W Tue afternoon, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.3N 106.8W late Tue night and dissipate early Thu. Hurricane Odalys is near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 750 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 123.2W this afternoon, become post-tropical and move to near 22.6N 122.9W Mon morning, to near 22.0N 122.6W Mon afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 21.0N 122.4W Tue morning, move to near 19.9N 122.2W Tue afternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed morning and dissipate early on Thu. The Special Features broad area of low pressure may evolve into a tropical cyclone that moves east-norheastward across the western part of the area during the upcoming week. If this scenario transpires, then winds and seas will impacted significantly across that portion of the area. Please keep up with the latest Tropical Weather Outlooks for updates on formation probabilities of this next possible system. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC271049CCA_C_KWBC_20260927105019_4522426-4816-TWDEP.txt ****0000011712**** AXPZ20 KNHC 271049 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Correction NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026 Corrected Remainder of Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 260 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 27/0900 UTC, moving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Satellite imagery indicates a faint eye feature. The imagery shows numerous strong convection within 90 nm in the E semicircle, 120 nm in the SW quadrant and 180 nm in the NW quadrant. Peak seas are near 39 ft (12 M). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Mon, move across the peninsula Mon night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tue. Additional weakening is expected during the next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Mon. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Odalys is centered near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 750 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 27/0900 UTC, moving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are to near 24 ft (7 m). Odalys's overall convective structure has degenerated into an irregularly shaped central dense overcast. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection within 210 nm in the NE quadrant, 30 nm in the SE quadrant, 60 nm in the SE quadrant and 150 nm in the NW quadrant. Odalys will maintain its present motion through this evening, followed by a sharp turn to the south- southeast by early next week. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post-tropical cyclone by Mon. Newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near 12.2N 99.1W, or about 285 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico at 27/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection from 11N to between 96W and 102W. Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is forecast to move parallel to and offshore of the coast of Mexico. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression could become a tropical storm by tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo, Odalys and Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. A broad area of low pressure located about 1000 nm to the east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is becoming organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. The system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across central Panama and to 08N82W to 06N90W and to 12N96W. It continues to the west of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E at 12N101W to 14N107W. It resumes south of Odalys at 17N124W and to 11N130W to low pressure near 11N140W 1008 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 07N to 14N west of 136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 11N between 94W-97W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, Hurricane Odalys, and on newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. The impacts from these features encompass much of the basin. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California per latest scatterometer data. Moderate seas remain over the offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with slight seas in the central and northern gulf sections. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 20.3N 113.6W, or about 260 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Polo will move to near 21.6N 114.0W this afternoon, to near 23.4N 114.0W late tonight, to 25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near 26.8N 111.6W late Mon night, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 109.3W Tue afternoon, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.3N 106.8W late Tue night and dissipate early Thu. Hurricane Odalys is near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 750 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 123.2W this afternoon, become post-tropical and move to near 22.6N 122.9W Mon morning, to near 22.0N 122.6W Mon afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 21.0N 122.4W Tue morning, move to near 19.9N 122.2W Tue afternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed morning and dissipate early on Thu. Newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is near 12.2N 99.1W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west- northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Eighteen-E will move to near 12.7N 99.6W this afternoon, strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.2N 100.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, move to near 13.8N 102.2W Mon afternoon, to near 14.7N 104.1W late Mon night, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.7N 105.9W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, and move to near 16.9N 107.7W late Tue night Wed morning. Eighteen-E will move to near 18.7N 109.6W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. The forecast waters will be impacted by very hazardous conditions, for the most part, during the forecast period. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala newly formed Tropical Depression Eighteen-E located about 285 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico continues to organize. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in southwest swell over the western part of the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will continue to pull away from the offshore waters going into the early part of the week allowing for fresh southeast to south winds over the western portion of the Guatemala offshore waters to diminish, however, west to northwest swell will linger over those waters through the next few days. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail across the offshore waters well into the upcoming week along with mostly moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo and on Hurricane Odalys. Away from the tropical cyclones, the gradient between high pressure over the northwest portion of the area and Odalys has led to fresh northeast winds covering the waters west of a line from about 30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in long-period east to southeast swell. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere, although a swath of fresh southwest winds have developed from 05N to 10N and west of about 120W. The tropical cyclones have generated a broad area of rough seas from 08N to 29N and east of about 137W. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 20.3N 113.6W, or about 260 nm southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 952 mb. Polo will move to near 21.6N 114.0W this afternoon, to near 23.4N 114.0W late tonight, to 25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near 26.8N 111.6W late Mon night, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 109.3W Tue afternoon, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.3N 106.8W late Tue night and dissipate early Thu. Hurricane Odalys is near 21.9N 123.4W, or about 750 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 123.2W this afternoon, become post-tropical and move to near 22.6N 122.9W Mon morning, to near 22.0N 122.6W Mon afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 21.0N 122.4W Tue morning, move to near 19.9N 122.2W Tue afternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed morning and dissipate early on Thu. The Special Features broad area of low pressure may evolve into a tropical cyclone that moves east-norheastward across the western part of the area during the upcoming week. If this scenario transpires, then winds and seas will be impacted significantly across that portion of the area. Please keep up with the latest Tropical Weather Outlooks for updates on formation probabilities of this next possible system. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC271538_C_KWBC_20260927153922_4522426-4841-TWDEP.txt ****0000010117**** AXPZ20 KNHC 271538 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 21.3N 113.9W at 27/1500 UTC, moving north-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Satellite imagery indicates a faint eye feature, with numerous strong convection within 90 nm of center. Peak seas are near 39 ft (12 M). A turn toward the north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Mon, move across the peninsula Mon night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by early Tue. Additional weakening is expected during the next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a hurricane when it approaches Baja California Sur on Mon. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 22.6N 123.4W at 27/1500 UTC, moving north at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are around 27 ft (7.5 M). Odalys's overall convective structure has degenerated into an irregularly shaped central dense overcast. Numerous moderate convection is within 90 nm of the center. Odalys will maintain its present motion through this evening, followed by a sharp turn to the south- southeast by early next week. Rapid weakening is forecast over the next few days, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post- tropical cyclone by Mon. Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near 12.7N 98.6W at 27/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft (3.5 M). Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is forecast to move parallel to and offshore of the coast of Mexico. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression could become a tropical storm by tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo, Odalys and Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop around a broad area of low pressure, currently located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several days. The system is expected to move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next week. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from central Panama to 08N82W to 06N90W and to 12N96W. It continues to the west of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E at 12N101W to 14N107W. It resumes south of Odalys at 17N124W and to 11N130W to low pressure near 11N140W 1008 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 07N to 14N west of 136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 11N between 94W-97W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, Tropical Storm Odalys, and on Tropical Depression Eighteen-E. The impacts from these features encompass much of the basin. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California per latest scatterometer data. Moderate seas remain over the offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with slight seas in the central and northern gulf sections. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 21.6N 114.0W this afternoon, to near 23.4N 114.0W late tonight, to 25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near 26.8N 111.6W late Mon night, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 109.3W Tue afternoon, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.3N 106.8W late Tue night and dissipate early Thu. Tropical Storm Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 123.2W this afternoon, become post- tropical and move to near 22.6N 122.9W Mon morning, to near 22.0N 122.6W Mon afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 21.0N 122.4W Tue morning, move to near 19.9N 122.2W Tue afternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed morning and dissipate early on Thu. Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will move to near 12.7N 99.6W this afternoon, strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.2N 100.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, move to near 13.8N 102.2W Mon afternoon, to near 14.7N 104.1W late Mon night, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.7N 105.9W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, and move to near 16.9N 107.7W late Tue night Wed morning. Eighteen-E will move to near 18.7N 109.6W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. The forecast waters will be impacted by very hazardous conditions, for the most part, during the forecast period. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala Tropical Depression Eighteen-E located about 285 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico continues to organize. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in southwest swell over the western part of the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will continue to pull away from the offshore waters going into the early part of the week allowing for fresh southeast to south winds over the western portion of the Guatemala offshore waters to diminish, however, west to northwest swell will linger over those waters through the next few days. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail across the offshore waters well into the upcoming week along with mostly moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, Tropical Storm Odalys, and on low pressure developing in the far western portion of the waters. Away from the tropical cyclones, the gradient between high pressure over the northwest portion of the area and Odalys has led to fresh northeast winds covering the waters west of a line from about 30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft in long-period east to southeast swell. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere, although a swath of fresh southwest winds have developed from 05N to 10N and west of about 120W. The tropical cyclones have generated a broad area of rough seas from 08N to 29N and east of about 137W. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 21.6N 114.0W this afternoon, to near 23.4N 114.0W late tonight, to 25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near 26.8N 111.6W late Mon night, weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 109.3W Tue afternoon, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.3N 106.8W late Tue night and dissipate early Thu. Tropical Storm Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 123.2W this afternoon, become post- tropical and move to near 22.6N 122.9W Mon morning, to near 22.0N 122.6W Mon afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 21.0N 122.4W Tue morning, move to near 19.9N 122.2W Tue afternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed morning and dissipate early on Thu. Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop around a broad area of low pressure, currently located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several days. The system is expected to move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC272121_C_KWBC_20260927212126_4522426-4863-TWDEP.txt ****0000009943**** AXPZ20 KNHC 272121 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 21.9N 114.1W at 27/2100 UTC, moving north at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are near 40 ft (12 M). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Polo is expected to continue moving northward tonight, then turn NE Mon. On the forecast track, Polo will approach the west coast of Baja California Sur Mon, move across the Peninsula Mon night, then approach NW mainland Mexico by early Tue. Polo is a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next day or two, but Polo is forecast to remain a strong hurricane when it reaches Baja California Sur Mon. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts in excess of 12 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Newly-upgraded Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 12.6N 99.1W at 27/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft (3.5 M). Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. A continued WNW motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to remain well S of the coast of southern Mexico. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Rachel is forecast to become hurricane Tue. Odalys has become less organized today and no longer has tropical characteristics. Therefore, Odalys is now a post-tropical cyclone. Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys is centered near 22.8N 123.1W at 27/2100 UTC, moving north-northeast at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. With winds of 35 to 40 kt expected into tonight, a Gale Warning has now been issued within 90 nm of the center of Odalys. Very rough seas of up to 20 ft (6.0 M), also continue near Odalys, and these hazardous seas will only slowly subside tonight. Scattered moderate convection persists within about 60 nm of the center, and this activity should dissipate this evening. A slow NE motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn S or SSW Mon. Odalys is expected to dissipate by mid-week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo, Odalys, and Rachel. A broad area of low pressure associated with persistent showers and thunderstorms is currently located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several days. The system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next week. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N82W to 12N96W. It resumes south of Odalys at 17N124W and to 11N130W to low pressure near 12N138W 1008 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 07N to 14N west of 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rachel, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys. The impacts from these features encompass much of the basin. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas remain over the offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with slight seas in the central and northern gulf sections. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 22.7N 113.9W this evening, 24.5N 113.4W Mon morning, and 26.3N 112.2W Mon evening. Polo will weaken to a tropical storm near 28.6N 110.0W Tue morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.5N 107.2W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rachel will be near 13.0N 99.2W this evening, then move to 13.7N 100.5W Mon morning. Rachel will reach 14.6N 102.4W Mon evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.5N 104.2W Tue morning, then been near 16.5N 106.0W Tue evening. Hurricane Rachel will be at 17.3N 107.4W Wed morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to the east of the Revillagigedo Islands early Thu. Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys will move to 23.0N 123.2W this evening, then weaken to a remnant low near 22.8N 122.8W Mon morning. The remnant low of Odalys will be near 21.9N 122.6W Mon evening, 20.6N 122.6W Tue morning, and 19.6N 122.9W Tue evening, The remnants of Odalys will be at 19.0N 123.6W Wed morning, then dissipate early Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in southwest swell over the western part of the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, fresh SE to S winds over the western portions of the Guatemalan offshore waters will continue to diminish. West to northwest swell will linger over those waters through the next few days. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail across the offshore waters well into the upcoming week along with mostly moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, newly upgraded Tropical Storm Rachel, Post- Tropical Cyclone Odalys, and on low pressure in the far western waters that has potential for tropical cyclone formation this week. Away from the tropical cyclones, the gradient between high pressure over the northwest portion of the area and Odalys has led to fresh northeast winds covering the waters west of a line from about 30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. The tropical cyclones have generated a broad area of rough seas N of 09N, with moderate seas to the south. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 22.7N 113.9W this evening, 24.5N 113.4W Mon morning, and 26.3N 112.2W Mon evening. Polo will weaken to a tropical storm near 28.6N 110.0W Tue morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.5N 107.2W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rachel will be near 13.0N 99.2W this evening, then move to 13.7N 100.5W Mon morning. Rachel will reach 14.6N 102.4W Mon evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.5N 104.2W Tue morning, then been near 16.5N 106.0W Tue evening. Hurricane Rachel will be at 17.3N 107.4W Wed morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to the east of the Revillagigedo Islands early Thu. Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys will move to 23.0N 123.2W this evening, then weaken to a remnant low near 22.8N 122.8W Mon morning. The remnant low of Odalys will be near 21.9N 122.6W Mon evening, 20.6N 122.6W Tue morning, and 19.6N 122.9W Tue evening, The remnants of Odalys will be at 19.0N 123.6W Wed morning, then dissipate early Thu. A broad area of low pressure associated with persistent showers and thunderstorms is currently located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several days. The system should move generally northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next week. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################