--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-07-10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC100407_C_KWBC_20260710040809_9109880-7907-TWDEP.txt ****0000004730**** AXPZ20 KNHC 100407 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 93W to the north of 02N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 115W, from 02N to 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N110W to 08N125W. The ITCZ is from 08N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active from 01N to 10N E of 100W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 03N to 14N between 100W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW winds are across the waters off Baja California along with moderate seas. Farther south, strong N winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are estimated to be 6-7 ft. In the Gulf of California, winds are mainly fresh from the SE with seas to 4 ft. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas in SW swell. For the forecast, ridging off Baja California is weakening as pressure lowers over the Colorado River Valley. This pattern will support fresh to locally strong S winds across the northern Gulf of California tonight through Fri night. Farther south, pulses of fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early next week. An area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and there is a medium chance a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas offshore of Oaxaca and Chiapas by Sun night, and off Guerrero by Mon night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds persist across the Papagayo region and Nicaragua, extending offshore to near 90W. Seas are estimated to be 6-7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere to the N of 08N. Moderate SE winds are across the offshore waters of the Galapagos Islands, where seas are 5-7 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the waters, along with 4-6 ft mainly in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo region through late Sun, mainly at night and into the morning hours. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. An area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and there is a medium chance a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas offshore El Salvador and Guatemala by Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge dominates the waters north of 15N, supporting moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW swell. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Long period SW swell to 8 ft is reaching 04N between 90W and 120W. Combined seas are mainly 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, swell of 8-9 ft will persist north of 25N to the east of 125W into Fri. Farther south, large swell to 7-8 ft will persist south of 05N or so between 95W and 120W through Fri. A broad area of low pressure may become better organized this weekend into early next week over the tropical eastern Pacific west of 130W, although chances of tropical cyclone development remain low through the next seven days. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC101007_C_KWBC_20260710100752_32440682-4913-TWDEP.txt ****0000005186**** AXPZ20 KNHC 101007 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 01N to 16N with axis near 95W, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 03N to 10N between 88W and 100W. A tropical wave extends from 02N to 16N with axis near 119W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 13N between 109W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N114W to 06N132W. The ITCZ is from 06N132W to 06N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active from 00N to 11N E of 88W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 03N to 14N between 102W and 112W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data show light to gentle NW winds across the offshore waters off Baja California while altimeter data indicate moderate seas to 6 ft, which is being influenced by mixed SW and NW swell. In the Gulf of California, winds are fresh from the SE with 3 to 4 ft seas. Strong N winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are estimated to be 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in SW swell. For the forecast, moderate or weaker NW winds will prevail across the Baja California offshores through Tue night along with slight to moderate seas in mixed swell. Fresh to strong SE winds across the Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by late Sat. Pulses of fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach near gale-force speed Mon night, which will continue to affect the region through at least midweek. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico Sun night through Tue night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue this morning across the Papagayo region, affecting with rough seas to 9 ft the offshore waters of Nicaragua. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds remain moderate or weaker and seas moderate to 6 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder Central America offshores along with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds in Papagayo will remain constant through at least Tue night with moderate to rough seas. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Sat evening through late Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge dominates the waters north of 17N and W of 120W, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas, except rough W of 133W per recent altimeter data. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere. Otherwise, decaying NW swell continue to support an small area of rough seas to 8 ft just W of Punta Eugenia offshore waters. For the forecast, swell of 8-9 ft will persist north of 25N to the east of 125W through today. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward. Regardless of development, this system will bring strong winds and rough seas to the SW Mexican offshore immediate open waters Sun through midweek. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC101454_C_KWBC_20260710145455_32440682-4931-TWDEP.txt ****0000005146**** AXPZ20 KNHC 101454 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jul 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 83/84W, from the NW Caribbean southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W, from southern Mexico southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 121W from 18N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N97W to 11N112W to 07N131W. The ITCZ continues from 07N131W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 84W and 88W. Scattered to numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 88W and 101W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 111W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula, with a surface trough over the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of California. A tropical wave passing south of southern Mexico is helping to induce fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate winds are noted off Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are moderate or less across the discussion waters, reaching locally rough in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds will prevail across the Baja California offshores through Tue night along with slight to moderate seas in mixed swell. Fresh to strong SE winds across the Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by late Sat. Pulses of fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach near gale-force speed Mon night, which will continue to affect the region through at least midweek. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico Sun night through Tue night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A tropical wave is crossing Central America in the the Pacific waters, inducing fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are moderate or less, except rough in the Gulf of Papagayo. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds in Papagayo will prevail through at least Tue night with moderate to rough seas. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas may impact the waters offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Sat evening through late Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters N of 18N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and W of 120W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas across the discussion waters are moderate or less. For the forecast, swell of 8-9 ft north of 25N and east of 125W will subside today. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward. Regardless of development, this system will bring strong winds and rough seas to the SW Mexican offshore immediate open waters Sun through midweek. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################