--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-07-03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC030327_C_KWBC_20260703032728_32440682-4332-TWDEP.txt ****0000005739**** AXPZ20 KNHC 030327 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 18.8N 127.6W at 03/0300 UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4.0 m extend up to 120 nm from the center. Showers and thunderstorms are weakening, but scattered moderate convection still extends 135 nm in the southeast semicircle of the storm. Douglas is expected to continue to gradually turn toward the northwest tonight through Fri, and gradually weaken as is encounters an unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic environment. Douglas is forecast to remain a tropical storm tonight, and become a 30 kt post- tropical remnant low on Fri, then continue to move NW and gradually dissipate over the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Four-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 85W, south of 20N in the NW Caribbean, moving west at 15 kt. Associated convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 100W, south of 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is also described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... Segments of the monsoon trough extend from 09N85W to 03N115W to 08N122W, and from 13N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 85W and 95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong gap winds with locally rough seas are pulsing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, between high pressure north of the region and lower pressure over the tropics. Associated seas are reaching 8 ft in the plume of these gap winds. Farther north, a ridge off Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate breezes, with 4-6 ft seas off Baja. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds with locally rough seas will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and again Fri night, between high pressure north of the region and lower pressure over the tropics. Farther north, a ridge off Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate breezes through Sat, becoming moderate to occasionally fresh near the coast of Baja California starting Sun as the high pressure builds. Looking ahead, large SW swell may reach the waters off southern Mexico early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. Gentle to moderate SW breezes are noted elsewhere. Cross- equatorial SW swell to 8 ft dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, with 4-6 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered to numerous strong convection continues across the waters N of 05N from Colombia to offshore of Guatemala, producing strong gusty winds and locally rough seas. For the forecast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters of Panama and Colombia through at least Sun as a tropical wave move through the region. Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross- equatorial southerly swell will dominate area seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to the S of 05N through Mon, increasing to near 8 ft from the Galapagos Islands to Ecuador waters Sun night through Tue. Looking ahead, large SW swell may also reach the waters off northern Central America by Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Douglas. A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific well north of the Hawaiian Islands, southeastward through 30N135W, then weakly south- southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong winds within 300 nm to the N and NW of Douglas, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere south of the ridge, moderate to fresh NE to E winds, and 6 to 7 ft seas in N swell prevail north of 17N and west of 120W, outside the vicinity of Tropical Storm Douglas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere, except near Douglas and the areas of convection described above. Mixed SE and cross-equatorial SW swell are producing seas of 7 to 8 ft S of 05N and W of 130W. For the forecast, the ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week. Douglas will move N-NW and weaken to a 30 kt remnant low near 20N 130W early Fri, and continue northwestward and gradually dissipate through late Sun or Mon. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC030930_C_KWBC_20260703093202_9109880-7402-TWDEP.txt ****0000005489**** AXPZ20 KNHC 030930 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale warning: Post-Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 18.8N 127.6W at 03/0300 UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4.0 m extend up to 90 nm from the center. Douglas is no longer a tropical storm, and showers and thunderstorms are diminishing around Douglas as the storm moves over cooler waters. However, a recent scatterometer satellite pass showed tropical storm force winds persisting within 150 nm in the norther quadrant of the center. Therefore, a gale warning remains in effect for the remaining overnight period. Douglas is predicted to gradually weaken this weekend and then open into a trough and dissipate by Sunday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Douglas NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 89W, south of 20N in the NW Caribbean, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 100W, south of 15N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Associated convection is also described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 05N100W to 10N125W to 11N135W. The ITCZ extends from 11N135W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N east of 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong gap winds with locally rough seas are pulsing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, between high pressure north of the region and lower pressure over the tropics. Associated seas are reaching 8 ft in the plume of these gap winds. Farther north, a ridge off Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate breezes, with 4-6 ft seas off Baja. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the fresh to strong gap winds with locally rough seas will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, then diminish. Farther north, the ridge off Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate breezes through Sat, becoming moderate to occasionally fresh near the coast of Baja California starting Sun as the high pressure builds. Looking ahead, large SW swell may reach the waters off southern Mexico early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. Gentle to moderate SW breezes are noted elsewhere. Cross- equatorial SW swell to 8 ft dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, with 4-6 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered to numerous strong convection continues across the waters N of 05N from Colombia to offshore of Guatemala, producing strong gusty winds and locally rough seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross- equatorial southerly swell will dominate area seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to the S of 05N through Mon, increasing to near 8 ft off Ecuador and the Galapagos Sun night through Tue. Large SW swell may also reach the waters off northern Central America early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section on the gale warning associated with Post-Tropical Storm Douglas. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas extend 360 to 480 nm from the center of Douglas. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 15N and west of 120W. Farther east, fresh winds and locally rough seas accompany the tropical wave along 100W. Mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft in mixed swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, winds and seas near Douglas will diminish through Sun night as the remnant low opens into a trough. The ridge will then drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may form about 360 nm south of the Revillagigedo Islands by Sun night. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward at 10-15 kt through the early part of next week, although chances of development at this time are low. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC030939_C_KWBC_20260703094002_9109880-7404-TWDEP.txt ****0000005502**** AXPZ20 KNHC 030939 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale warning: Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas is centered near 18.8N 127.6W at 03/0300 UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4.0 m extend up to 90 nm from the center. Douglas is no longer a tropical storm, and showers and thunderstorms are diminishing around Douglas as the storm moves over cooler waters. However, a recent scatterometer satellite pass showed tropical storm force winds persisting within 150 nm in the norther quadrant of the center. Therefore, a gale warning remains in effect for the remaining overnight period. Douglas is predicted to gradually weaken this weekend and then open into a trough and dissipate by Sunday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Douglas NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 89W, south of 20N in the NW Caribbean, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 100W, south of 15N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Associated convection is also described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 05N100W to 10N125W to 11N135W. The ITCZ extends from 11N135W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N east of 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong gap winds with locally rough seas are pulsing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, between high pressure north of the region and lower pressure over the tropics. Associated seas are reaching 8 ft in the plume of these gap winds. Farther north, a ridge off Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate breezes, with 4-6 ft seas off Baja. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the fresh to strong gap winds with locally rough seas will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, then diminish. Farther north, the ridge off Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate breezes through Sat, becoming moderate to occasionally fresh near the coast of Baja California starting Sun as the high pressure builds. Looking ahead, large SW swell may reach the waters off southern Mexico early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. Gentle to moderate SW breezes are noted elsewhere. Cross- equatorial SW swell to 8 ft dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, with 4-6 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered to numerous strong convection continues across the waters N of 05N from Colombia to offshore of Guatemala, producing strong gusty winds and locally rough seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross- equatorial southerly swell will dominate area seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to the S of 05N through Mon, increasing to near 8 ft off Ecuador and the Galapagos Sun night through Tue. Large SW swell may also reach the waters off northern Central America early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section on the gale warning associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas extend 360 to 480 nm from the center of Douglas. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 15N and west of 120W. Farther east, fresh winds and locally rough seas accompany the tropical wave along 100W. Mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft in mixed swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, winds and seas near Douglas will diminish through Sun night as the remnant low opens into a trough. The ridge will then drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may form about 360 nm south of the Revillagigedo Islands by Sun night. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward at 10-15 kt through the early part of next week, although chances of development at this time are low. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC032122_C_KWBC_20260703212306_9109880-7435-TWDEP.txt ****0000006119**** AXPZ20 KNHC 032122 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 93W-94W, south of 16N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 103W, south of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Associated convection is also described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75.5W to 06N80W to 09.5N86W to 08N95W to 02.5N107W to 04N113W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N115W to 07N124W to 10.5N135W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered to locally numerous to strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 10.5N east of 92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14.5N between 92W and 101W and from 03N to 12.5N between 105W and 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands, and is maintaining gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with 5-7 ft seas in merging NW and SW swell, per recent satellite altimeter data. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere to Puerto Angel. Fresh NW to N gap winds with locally rough seas to 8 ft continue in a narrow plume across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream to near 14.5N this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore the coasts from Chiapas and Guerrero, S of 14.5N, and continue to shift westward. For the forecast, the ridge extending into the Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate breezes through Sat, becoming moderate to occasionally fresh near the coast of Baja California starting Sat evening through Tue, as the high pressure builds modestly into the area. Moderate to fresh gap winds across the Tehuantepec region will pulse again to strong tonight through Sat morning, then diminish through early next week. Looking ahead, large SW swell is expected to reach the waters off southern Mexico early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered to locally numerous strong convection is occurring across the western half of Panama and southeastern Costa Rica and extends across the near and offshore waters south and southwestward to the NE of the Galapagos Islands. Frequent lightning with strong and gusty winds and locally rough seas accompany this activity. Fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. Gentle to moderate SW to W breezes are noted elsewhere to the south. Cross-equatorial SW swell dominate the area waters, producing seas of 5 to 6 ft, except 6 to 7 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms area expected to continue to shift westward across the area waters through early Sun before activity begin to shift northward into the Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse at night across the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross- equatorial southerly swell will dominate area seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to the N of 04N through Sun morning, before increasing to near 8 ft off Ecuador and the Galapagos Sun evening through Tue, and 5 to 7 ft across the northern Central America early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Douglas are centered near 20N 128.5W at 1800 UTC, moving north-northwest around 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed maximum sustained winds of around 30 kt. Satellite altimeter data also shows seas of 3.5 to 4.0 m extend up to 180 nm N and NW of the center. The gale warning for this area has thus ended. Showers and thunderstorms continue to diminish with this system and are now confined to a modest cluster from 90 to 240 nm across the N semicircle. Elsewhere, a broad northeastern Pacific ridge persists across the waters to the north of the remnants of Douglas, and extend southeastward into the offshore waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and this low pressure system are producing fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft N of 27N and across the waters N through NW of the low. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 17N and west of 120W. Farther east, fresh winds and locally rough seas are occurring S of 13N, and accompany the tropical wave along 103W. Mostly gentle to moderate SE breezes and 5-8 ft seas in mixed swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas will gradually diminish through Sun night as the remnant low weakens and opens into a trough. The ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may form south of the Revillagigedo Islands by the early to middle part of the coming week. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward at 10-15 kt, although chances of development at this time are low. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################