--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-06-11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC110237_C_KWBC_20260611023740_32440682-2493-TWDEP.txt ****0000006467**** AXPZ20 KNHC 110237 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Cristina is centered near 13.1N 89.3W at 11/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently near 10 ft or 3.0 m. Widely scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from near 10N to 16N between 86W and 96W, with the most concentrated, deep and heavy convection over land including portions of southern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua. The depression is moving toward the northwest and this motion is expected to continue through Thu. On the forecast track, the center of Cristina should make landfall in El Salvador tonight, then move inland over El Salvador and into southern Guatemala by Thu. Little change in strength is forecast before the center moves inland. After landfall, Cristina is expected to dissipate over Guatemala on Thursday. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Cristina will impact coastal portions of Central America through Thu. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Cristina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to across southern Nicaragua to near Tropical Depression Cristina, then offshore from near 13N90W to 08N110W to 09.5N138W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 86W and 92W, from 03N to 09N between 95W and 103W, from 04N to 07N between 103W and 116W, and from 06N to 10N between 121W and 129W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 10.5N between 129W and 137W. Additional nearby convection is described above with Cristina. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad and elongated troughing extends from offshore Baja California southwestward to 10N129W, disrupting and backing off the ridge to the W. Under this pressure pattern winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, including in the Gulf of California, except local moderate to fresh westerly winds near the southern tip of Baja California Sur, and just N of there through the gaps into portions of the southern Gulf of California. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range, locally to 8 ft, over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Seas are 6-7 ft across the offshore waters, dominated by S-SW swell, except 7-9 ft well offshore Baja California Norte mixed with NW swell. For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the waters of Baja California. Gentle to moderate, locally fresh, SW to S winds are expected inside the Gulf of California and near the tip of Baja California Sur. Gentle to locally moderate NW to W winds will dominate the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec through Fri, then weaken into the weekend. Rough seas in mixed swells off Baja Norte will linger through Thu. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Cristina. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds surround Cristina from roughly N of 11N between 87W and 90W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, except locally fresh SSW of the Galapagos Islands. Seas are 7-10 ft N of 11N and E of 90W, and mainly 5-7 ft in SW swell elsewhere. For the forecast, Cristina will become post-tropical and move to 14.1N 89.7W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu evening. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters Thu into the weekend, except locally rough seas in new southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands Thu and Thu night. Winds may pulse to moderate to locally fresh in diurnal offshore flow in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo and near the Gulf of Guayaquil during the upcoming weekend into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad and elongated troughing extends from offshore Baja California southwestward to 10N129W, disrupting and backing off the ridge to the W. Under this pressure pattern winds are N-NE at moderate to fresh speeds N of 10N and W of the troughing. Seas are 6-8 ft in mainly long-period southerly swells across these waters, except higher at 7-10 ft mixed with northerly swell N of 27N between 119W and 131W. Winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough and E of the elongated troughing to the N are gentle with 6-7 ft seas dominated by the southerly swell. Winds are mainly moderate S of the monsoon trough with 6-8 ft seas, except slightly lower E of 95W. Some active convective clusters are present along portions of the monsoon trough as described above. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will loosen W of the elongated troughing, with winds diminishing slightly through Thu. Winds will then be moderate or weaker across the entire open waters, except at least moderate to fresh near transient embedded low pressure areas along western portions of the monsoon trough. Northerly swells mixed with the longer period southerly swells with seas of 7-9 ft will linger across the N-central waters through the remainder of the week before decaying. Otherwise, moderate seas will dominate the open waters, locally rough in the S-central waters through the end of the week, as well as near any of the embedded monsoon trough lows. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################