--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-05-16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC160404_C_KWBC_20260516040534_9109880-3312-TWDEP.txt ****0000005481**** AXPZ20 KNHC 160404 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat May 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia southwestward and westward across the southwestern Caribbean, and continues to across the central portion of Costa Rica and to 10N85W, then southwestward to 05N93W and to 07N104W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N120W and to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 132W-135W, also within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 135W-140W, and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 132W-137W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm northwest of the trough between 91W-95W, and to the southeast of the same trough from 04N to 06N between 83W-89W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a broad area of high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure associated to the thermal trough over Baja California is generally sustaining mostly fresh northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja California. A set of large northwest swell is just starting to cross 30N between 118W and 125W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft north of Punta Eugenia and 5 to 7 ft from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of California, the gradient there is maintaining moderate west to northwest, except for moderate south to southwest winds in the northern portion of the Gulf. Seas are 3 to 4 ft in the Gulf, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period southwest swell at the entrance to the gulf. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen over the far western offshore waters of Oaxaca. For the forecast, moderate to fresh southwest to west gap winds in the northern and central Gulf of California are expected to pulse to fresh to strong speeds Sat night and to strong to near gale-force Sun night. Mostly fresh northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja California will continue through Mon morning, except increase to fresh to strong speeds west of Baja California Norte Sat night into Sun due to a tightening of the pressure gradient as strong high pressure north of the area shifts eastward. Large northwest swell will induce rough to very rough seas offshore Baja California Norte through Mon night, and rough seas offshore Baja California Sur Sat through Tue. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent ASCAT satellite data pass shows fresh northeast to east winds just northwest of the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Ascat satellite data passes indicate mostly light to gentle south to southwest winds south of the monsoon trough. Seas are over this part of the area 3 to 5 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse during the night time hours offshore of the Papagayo region through the period. Rough seas will accompany these winds. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama tonight and Sat night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through early next week. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of Colombia, and mostly over the outer offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough near 12N118W is generating scattered moderate to isolated strong convection well southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands from 06N to 10N between 115W and 120W. A broad ridge stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high located well west of northern California across 30N130W to just southeast of the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature controls the wind regime north of the ITCZ, with moderate to fresh northeast to east winds west of 122W, and mostly moderate north to northeast winds east of 122W. Seas north of the ITCZ range from 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swell prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will shift eastward through late Sat leading to a tightening of the pressure gradient over the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W. This will bring fresh to strong northwest to north winds for this area during the weekend. Associated long-period, large north swell will build seas there to between 12 and 16 ft. The high is forecast to shift back westward while weakening early next week, which should allow these winds to diminish to between moderate and fresh. The large north swell will begin to slowly subside from Mon and beyond, with seas west of Baja California dropping below 12 ft. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################