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         TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES       

T1T2: AX
A1A2: PZ

Date: 2026-03-25

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Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC250356_C_KWBC_20260325035725_16515500-83-TWDEP.txt

****0000004695****
AXPZ20 KNHC 250356

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Wed Mar 25 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0345 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A surface trough extends from low pressure in northern Colombia

southwestward to 08N78W and to 05N90W, where it transitions to 

the ITCZ and continues to 06N110W to 04N125W to 03N135W and 

to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 

120 nm north of the ITCZ between 101W-113W, within 60 nm 

north of the ITCZ between 95W-100W and within 60 nm north 

of the ITCZ between 118W-124W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Light to gentle northwest to north winds are over the waters 

west of Baja California, and mostly light and variable winds over

the remainder of the offshore waters W of Tehuantepec. Seas are 

in the range of 4 to 6 ft in northwest swell over the offshore 

waters west of Baja California, and 3 to 4 ft over the remainder 

of the Mexican offshore waters. In the Tehuantepec region, fresh 

to strong northerly winds prevail with seas to around 8 ft. In

the Gulf of California, winds are generally light and variable

except in the central part of the Gulf where gentle west winds 

are present. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf.



For the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will 

continue to support the mostly light to gentle northerly wind 

flow over the waters west of Baja, and mostly light and variable 

winds over the remainder of the offshore waters through the 

forecast period, with the exception of winds pulsing to moderate

speeds north of Cabo San Lazaro Wed night through late Thu 

night, then north of Punta Eugenia through the rest of the 

forecast period. Northwest swell will build seas to 9 ft north 

of Punta Eugenia Thu through Fri night before subsiding. Fresh to

strong north gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse 

nightly through the rest of the week with rough seas. A frontal 

boundary will move across the Gulf of America this weekend. The 

pressure gradient in the Tehuantepec region will tighten leading 

to gale-force northerly winds there north of 14N beginning Sat 

night.



....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea is 

currently allowing for fresh to strong northeast to east winds 

in the Gulf of Papagayo region as noted in the latest scatterometer

satellite data. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Farther 

east, moderate north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of 

Panama reaching southward to near 06N. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with 

these winds. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 

prevail.



For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds 

in the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse nightly going into the

upcoming weekend along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to

occasionally fresh north to northeast winds will pulse in the 

Gulf of Panama during this time. Gentle breezes and moderate seas

will prevail elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



The pressure gradient between modest high pressure north of 16N 

and west of 121W, and lower pressure near the ITCZ is currently 

sustaining mostly moderate trades from 05N to 18N between 129W

and 135W, also from 05N to 13N between 113W and 129W, and from

06N to 13N west of 135W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these areas

of trades. Elsewhere, latest scatterometer satellite data

indicates light to gentle northeast to east winds. Seas are 

4 to 6 ft elsewhere primarily due to a long-period northwest to 

north swell. The tail-end of a cold front just touches 30N140W,

and stretches well southwestward from there as a dissipating 

stationary front.



For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will 

develop north of about 26N and west of 119W Thu through Fri as 

the pressure gradient tightens between a ridge building southward

across the north-central waters, and a low pressure system, with 

attendant trough lifting northward west of the area near 145W. 

Seas are expected to build to 8 to 10 ft over this part of the 

area. 



$$

Aguirre


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