--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2025-11-26 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC260244_C_KWBC_20251126024440_16515500-412-TWDEP.txt ****0000004520**** AXPZ20 KNHC 260244 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the Gulf of America through late Thu. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure building in the wake of the front and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and Wed. These winds will increase to gale force by early Thu. A plume of fresh to strong N to NE gap winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will reach into Pacific waters up to 500 nm downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Thu. Winds and seas will diminish Fri and Sat as the high pressure north of the area shifts eastward and the pressure gradient loosens. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N78W to 09N87W to 07N103W. The ITCZ extends from 07N103W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 09N between 104W and 120W, and from 04N to 16N between 125W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail over the Gulf of California, reaching strong speeds over the central portions. Gentle to moderate winds extend from the mouth of the Gulf to Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula extending southward to the Revillagigedo Islands and eastward to the waters off Cabo Correintes. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight into early Wed, increasing to gale- force Thu morning through Fri morning leading to rough seas. Fresh to strong winds will then persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into early Sat before diminishing. Farther north, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of California into mid- week, briefly strong at times, then diminishing Thu. Large NW swell off Baja California and the Revillagigedo Islands will subside this evening. A weak cold front or trough will move into the waters off northern Baja California, supporting moderate to fresh westerly gap winds across the northern Gulf of California Sun night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are over the Papagayo region, with moderate winds extending downstream to near 95W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to locally moderate winds are found south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse over and downstream of the Papagayo region the remainder of the week and into next weekend, locally strong at times. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast elsewhere through the week and into next weekend. No significant swells are forecast this week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between ridging north of 20N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 110W. The trade winds are contributing to 8 to 10 ft combined seas in this area, along with a component of longer- period NW swell. NW swell of 8 to 9 ft lingers north of 20N and east of 120W toward the coast of Baja California. Gentle breezes and moderate seas in a mix of swell are noted elsewhere. The swell north of 20N and east of 120W will subside this evening. The fresh trade winds and the remaining 8 to 10 ft seas in the trade wind belt will gradually subside through late Wed as the high pressure north of the area weakens. Looking ahead, a new set of NW swell with rough seas may arrive by the end of the week and into next weekend north of 25N. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere through Sun. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC260841_C_KWBC_20251126084154_29294990-871-TWDEP.txt ****0000004373**** AXPZ20 KNHC 260841 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the Gulf of America through late Thu. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure building in the wake of the front and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and Wed. These winds will increase to gale force by early Thu. A plume of fresh to strong N to NE gap winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will reach into Pacific waters up to 500 nm downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Thu. Winds and seas will diminish Fri and Sat as the high pressure north of the area shifts eastward and the pressure gradient loosens. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N103W. The ITCZ extends from 07N103W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 09N between 110W and 121W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 04N to 16N between 125W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail over the Gulf of California, reaching strong speeds over the central portions. Gentle to moderate winds extend from the entrance of the Gulf to Cabo Corrientes. Moderate to fresh winds have developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula extending southward to the Revillagigedo Islands and eastward to the waters off Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early today, increasing to gale- force Thu morning through Fri morning leading to rough seas. Fresh to strong winds will then persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into early Sat before diminishing. Farther north, moderate to fresh winds, briefly strong at times, in the Gulf of California will diminish Thu. A weak cold front or trough will move into the waters off northern Baja California, supporting moderate to fresh westerly gap winds across the northern Gulf of California Sun night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are over the Papagayo region, with moderate winds extending downstream. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to locally moderate winds are found south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse over and downstream of the Papagayo region the remainder of the week and into next weekend, locally strong at times. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast elsewhere through the week and into next weekend. No significant swells are forecast this week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between ridging north of 20N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W of 110W. The trade winds are contributing to 8 to 10 ft combined seas in this area, along with a component of longer- period NW swell. NW swell of 7 to 8 ft lingers north of 20N and east of 120W toward the coast of Baja California. Gentle breezes and moderate seas in a mix of swell are noted elsewhere. Fresh trade winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in the trade wind belt will gradually decrease through Thu as the high pressure north of the area weakens. A new set of NW swell with rough seas may arrive by the end of the week and into next weekend north of 25N. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere through Sun. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC261449_C_KWBC_20251126144943_16515500-466-TWDEP.txt ****0000005275**** AXPZ20 KNHC 261449 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the Gulf of America through late Thu. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure building in the wake of the front and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today into tonight. These winds will increase to gale force by early Thu. A plume of fresh to strong N to NE gap winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will reach into Pacific waters up to 480 nm downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late Thu. Winds and seas will diminish Fri and Sat as the high pressure north of the area shifts eastward and the pressure gradient loosens. Please refer to the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC and at website https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N77.5W to 08N108W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 11.5N between 111W and 123.5W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06.5N to 09N between 100W and 111W, from 05N to 09.5N between 125W and 129.5W, and from 07N to 09N between 137W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a developing Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail over the Gulf of California, reaching strong speeds over the central and northern portions. Gentle to moderate winds extend from the entrance of the Gulf to near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula extending southward to the Revillagigedo Islands and eastward to the waters off Cabo Corrientes. Seas of 3-6 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to gale force by early Thu morning through Fri morning leading to rough seas. Fresh to strong winds will then persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into early Sat before diminishing. Farther north, moderate to fresh winds, briefly strong at times, in the Gulf of California will diminish later this morning. A weak cold front or trough will move into the waters off northern Baja California, possibly supporting moderate to fresh westerly gap winds across the northern Gulf of California Sun night. No significant swell events are forecast through the upcoming weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are over the Papagayo region, with moderate winds extending downstream. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to locally moderate winds are found south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range in mixed SW and NW swells. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will pulse over and downstream of the Papagayo region the remainder of the week and into next weekend, locally strong at times. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast elsewhere through the week and into next weekend. No significant swells are forecast through Sun, however seas will build slightly in the Papagayo region due to the fresh to strong winds, and offshore Guatemala due to a developing gale force gap wind event NW of the area in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between ridging north of 20N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ to near 17N and west of 130W. The trade winds are contributing to 7-10 ft combined seas from 04N to 19N between 107W and 104W, assisted by a component of longer- period NW swell. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas in a mix of swell are noted elsewhere. Very active convection is near the monsoon trough in central portions as described above aided at the mid-to-upper level transporting moisture well to the northeast toward the SW United States and NW Mexico. Fresh trade winds and 7-10 ft seas in the trade wind belt will gradually decrease through Thu as the high pressure north of the area weakens. A new set of NW swell with rough seas may arrive by the end of the week and into next weekend north of 25N. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere through Sun. Looking ahead, a much more significant set of NW swell may arrive to the NW waters by the end of the weekend. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################