--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-06-04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC040317_C_KWBC_20260604031808_9109880-4761-TWDEP.txt ****0000006025**** AXPZ20 KNHC 040317 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 11.4N 129.3W at 04/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. A turn toward the west and southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast this weekend. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two. A weakening trend is forecast to begin this weekend. Peak seas are near 12 ft. Numerous strong convection is observed within 90 nm W of the center. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 91W from 03N N to near the El Salvador/Guatemala border, drifting W at less than 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough 07N to 10N between 85W and 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N85W to 09N95W to 13N105W to 11N126W. It resumes SW of Tropical Storm Amanda near 09.5N131W and continues to 1010 mb low pressure located near 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N E of 85W to the coast of Colombia, from 06N to 11N between 95W and 105W, and from 10N to 13N between 107W and 113W. Similar convective activity is seen from 03N to 06N W of 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge that is anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure center N of the area near 33N141W stretches southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is maintaining moderate to fresh NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, light winds prevail, with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except seas of 3 to 5 ft in long-period S to SW swell near the entrance to the Gulf. For the remainder of the offshore waters, light to gentle winds dominate along with 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in long-period S to SW swell, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, rough seas, in NW swell, will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia late Thu into Fri. Additional pulses of NW swell will continue to reach the region into early next week. An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern and southwestern Mexico by this weekend. Environmental conditions also appear conducive for gradual development of this system into early next week, and a tropical depression could form during this time as it moves slowly northward or northwestward, near the coast of southern Mexico. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in 7 days. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are over the Central American offshore waters under a weak pressure pattern along with moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period S to SW swell. The exception is moderate gap winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle S to SW winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period SW swell are over the waters S of the monsoon trough between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. For the forecast, long period SW swell will propagate through the southern Galapagos adjacent waters through Thu. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America and southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly northwestward or northward. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Amanda located well SW of the souther tip of Baja California. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough, with the pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough generally allowing for fresh to locally strong trade winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas over these waters are in the 7 to 9 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Mainly gentle winds are S of the monsoon trough. Seas over these waters are generally 5 to 7 ft, except for S of the Equator, where long-period southerly swell has created rough seas W of the Galapagos Islands. The aforementioned high pressure will weaken some toward the end of the week as Tropical Storm Amanda tracks NW over the western portion of the area, resulting in diminishing winds across the trade wind zone. Little change is expected elsewhere. Tropical Storm Amanda will move to 12.2N 130.1W Thu morning, 13.0N 131.4W Thu evening, 13.4N 132.6W Fri morning, 13.5N 133.4W Fri evening, 13.1N 134.1W Sat morning, and 12.8N 134.4W Sat evening. Amanda will weaken to a remnant low near 12.2N 135.0W late Sun. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC040915_C_KWBC_20260604091611_9109880-4796-TWDEP.txt ****0000006406**** AXPZ20 KNHC 040915 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jun 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 12.2N 129.8W at 04/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the southwest at a slower forward speed is forecast this weekend. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Some strengthening is forecast today and tonight. A weakening trend is forecast to begin by Friday night or Saturday. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 75 nm W of the center. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 92W from 03N N to near the Guatemala/Mexico border, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 85W and 92W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is near the northern end of the wave axis N of 11N between 87W and 90W. This convective activity is affecting parts of El Salvador and the Gulf of Fonseca. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 09N92W to 1010 mb low pressure located near 13N105.5W to 11N125W. It resumes SW of Tropical Storm Amanda near 09N132W and continues to 05N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 98W and 106W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 02N to 08N E of 90W to the coast of Colombia, from 10N to 14N between 124W and 128W, and from 02N to 10N W of 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge, anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure center located near 32N141W, dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing moderate to locally fresh NW winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, light winds prevail, with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except seas of 3 to 5 ft in long-period S to SW swell near the entrance to the Gulf. For the remainder of the offshore waters, light to gentle winds dominate along with moderate seas, primarily in long-period S to SW swell, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the waters W of Baja California through the upcoming weekend supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Rough seas, in NW swell, will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia late today into Fri. Additional pulses of NW swell will continue to reach the region into early next week. An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next few days. Environmental conditions also appear conducive for gradual development of this system into early next week, and a tropical depression could form during this time as it moves slowly northward or northwestward, near the coast of southern Mexico. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in 7 days. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are over the Central American offshore waters under a weak pressure pattern along with moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period S to SW swell. Higher winds are noted near the convective activity. Gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period SW swell are over the waters S of the monsoon trough between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. For the forecast, long period SW swell will continue to propagate across the region creating moderate to rough seas. The highest seas are expected between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America and southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly northwestward or northward. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Amanda located well SW of the southern tip of Baja California. Otherwise, high pressure dominates the waters N of 16N and W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Amanda is promoting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across most of the area N of 10N and W of 120W based on scatterometer data. Seas over these waters are in the 7 to 9 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Mainly gentle winds are S of the monsoon trough with seas of 5 to 7 ft, except for S of the Equator, where long-period southerly swell has created rough seas W of the Galapagos Islands. The aforementioned high pressure will weaken some toward the end of the week as Tropical Storm Amanda tracks toward the NW and W over the western portion of the area, resulting in diminishing winds across the trade wind zone. Little change is expected elsewhere. Tropical Storm Amanda will move to 12.8N 130.7W this afternoon, 13.4N 132.0W Fri morning, 13.6N 133.0W Fri afternoon, 13.4N 133.6W Sat morning, 13.1N 134.1W Sat afternoon, and weaken to a tropical depression near 12.7N 134.5W Sun morning. Amanda will become a remnant low as it moves to near 12.2N 135.3W early Mon. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################