--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-05-15 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC150406_C_KWBC_20260515040644_32440682-227-TWDEP.txt ****0000006244**** AXPZ20 KNHC 150406 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri May 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia southwestward to the border between Panama and Colombia, and continues northwestward to northern Panamas and southern Costa Rica and southwestward from there to 10N85W to 06N90W and to 06N95W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N100W to 05.5N110W to 06N120W to 07N128W, where it pauses. It resumes at 07N133W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 07N between 124W-128W, and within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 133W-136W. Scattered moderate within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 104W-107W, also between 118W-125W and between 136W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between broad ridging west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California is generally allowing for mostly moderate northwest to north winds north of Punta Eugenia and for moderate to fresh northwest to north winds south of Punta Eugenia per latest scatterometer data. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell over the offshore waters of Baja California, except for slighter higher seas of 6 to 8 ft north of Punta Eugenia. A thermal trough extends from the northern Gulf of California south-southeastward to just inland southern Baja California. The related gradient is allowing for moderate west to northwest winds over most of the Gulf, except for fresh southwest winds in the northern section. Seas over the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell at the entrance to the Gulf and 3 to 5 ft over the waters from 24N to 25N. Fresh to strong north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along with seas of 6 to 8 ft while light to gentle mostly west to northwest winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. Isolated showers are seen over the offshore waters of the state of Oaxaca. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds and rough seas will persist at the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning. The fresh southwest winds in the northern Gulf of California are expected to pulse to strong during the nighttime hours this weekend. Winds offshore Baja California are forecast to become fresh to strong in speeds north of Punta Eugenia Fri night through Sun night as the high pressure northwest of the region strengthens. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in large northwest swell will accompany these winds. The northwest swell should spread southward into early next week, with the leading edge of 8 ft seas reaching to near 19N and west of 111W. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest satellite scatterometer data reveal moderate fo fresh easterly gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas extend offshore of southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region to near 90W. Moderate north to northeast winds are present in the Gulf of Panama as seen in recent scatterometer satellite data pass. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection recently developed convection from 07N to 09N between 79W and 80W. High north winds of fresh to strong speeds are being produced by this convection. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Panama area. light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed moderate swells exist for the remainder central America offshore waters. For the waters west of Colombia and Ecuador, and near the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to strong with locally rough seas during night time hours offshore of the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through early next week. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula tonight and on again on Fri night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica going into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge stretches southeastward from a 1035 mb high north of the Hawaiian Islands across 30N140W to southeast of the Revillagigedo Islands, and dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure associated withs the ITCZ and a trough analyzed from near 12N125W to 03N135W supports moderate to fresh trades to E trades with 6 to 8 ft seas across most of the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 125W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near the trough from 03N to 10N between 128W and 132W. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are noted north of the ITCZ east of 125W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swell are south near and south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the aforementioned 1036 mb high will continue to strenghten and spread moderate to fresh N to NE winds to east of 125W by Sun. As the high weakens nearly next week, these winds should gradually subside. Seas north of 23N and east of 133W will begin to build late Fri in large northwest swell and reach 10 to 14 ft by Sun. Starting Mon evening, subsiding northwest swell should allow seas to gradually drop through midweek next week. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC150406_C_KWBC_20260515040744_32440682-228-TWDEP.txt ****0000006247**** AXPZ20 KNHC 150406 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri May 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia southwestward to the border between Panama and Colombia, and continues northwestward to northern Panamas and southern Costa Rica and southwestward from there to 10N85W to 06N90W and to 06N95W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N100W to 05.5N110W to 06N120W to 07N128W, where it pauses. It resumes at 07N133W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 07N between 124W-128W, and within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 133W-136W. Scattered moderate within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 104W-107W, also between 118W-125W and between 136W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between broad ridging west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California is generally allowing for mostly moderate northwest to north winds north of Punta Eugenia and for moderate to fresh northwest to north winds south of Punta Eugenia per latest scatterometer data. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell over the offshore waters of Baja California, except for slighter higher seas of 6 to 8 ft north of Punta Eugenia. A thermal trough extends from the northern Gulf of California south-southeastward to just inland southern Baja California. The related gradient is allowing for moderate west to northwest winds over most of the Gulf, except for fresh southwest winds in the northern section. Seas over the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell at the entrance to the Gulf and 3 to 5 ft over the waters from 24N to 25N. Fresh to strong north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along with seas of 6 to 8 ft while light to gentle mostly west to northwest winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. Isolated showers are seen over the offshore waters of the state of Oaxaca. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds and rough seas will persist at the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning. The fresh southwest winds in the northern Gulf of California are expected to pulse to strong during the nighttime hours this weekend. Winds offshore Baja California are forecast to become fresh to strong in speeds north of Punta Eugenia Fri night through Sun night as the high pressure northwest of the region strengthens. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in large northwest swell will accompany these winds. The northwest swell should spread southward into early next week, with the leading edge of 8 ft seas reaching to near 19N and west of 111W. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest satellite scatterometer data reveal moderate to fresh easterly gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas extend offshore of southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region to near 90W. Moderate north to northeast winds are present in the Gulf of Panama as seen in recent scatterometer satellite data pass. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection recently developed convection from 07N to 09N between 79W and 80W. High north winds of fresh to strong speeds are being produced by this convection. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Panama area. light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed moderate swells exist for the remainder central America offshore waters. For the waters west of Colombia and Ecuador, and near the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to strong with locally rough seas during night time hours offshore of the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through early next week. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula tonight and on again on Fri night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica going into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge stretches southeastward from a 1035 mb high north of the Hawaiian Islands across 30N140W to southeast of the Revillagigedo Islands, and dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure associated withs the ITCZ and a trough analyzed from near 12N125W to 03N135W supports moderate to fresh trades to E trades with 6 to 8 ft seas across most of the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 125W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near the trough from 03N to 10N between 128W and 132W. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are noted north of the ITCZ east of 125W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swell are south near and south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the aforementioned 1036 mb high will continue to strengthen and spread moderate to fresh N to NE winds to east of 125W by Sun. As the high weakens nearly next week, these winds should gradually subside. Seas north of 23N and east of 133W will begin to build late Fri in large northwest swell and reach 10 to 14 ft by Sun. Starting Mon evening, subsiding northwest swell should allow seas to gradually drop through midweek next week. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC150906CCA_C_KWBC_20260515090748_32440682-243-TWDEP.txt ****0000006313**** AXPZ20 KNHC 150906 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri May 15 2026 Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia southwestward to the border between Panama and Colombia, and continues northwestward to northern Panama and southern Costa Rica and southwestward from there to 10N85W to 06N90W and to 06N95W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N100W to 05.5N110W to 06N120W to 07N128W, where it pauses. It resumes at 07N133W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 07N between 124W-128W, and within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 133W-136W. Scattered moderate within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 104W- 107W, also between 118W-125W and between 136W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between broad ridging west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California is generally allowing for mostly moderate northwest to north winds north of Punta Eugenia and for moderate to fresh northwest to north winds south of Punta Eugenia per latest scatterometer data. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell over the offshore waters of Baja California, except for slighter higher seas of 6 to 8 ft north of Punta Eugenia. A thermal trough extends from the northern Gulf of California south-southeastward to just inland southern Baja California. The related gradient is allowing for moderate west to northwest winds over most of the Gulf, except for fresh southwest winds in the northern section. Seas over the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell at the entrance to the Gulf and 3 to 5 ft over the waters from 24N to 25N. Fresh to strong north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along with seas of 6 to 8 ft while light to gentle mostly west to northwest winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. Isolated showers are seen over the offshore waters of the state of Oaxaca. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds and rough seas will persist at the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning. The fresh southwest winds in the northern Gulf of California are expected to pulse to strong during the nighttime hours this weekend. Winds offshore Baja California are forecast to become fresh to strong in speeds north of Punta Eugenia Fri night through Sun night as the high pressure northwest of the region strengthens. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in large northwest swell will accompany these winds. The northwest swell should spread southward into early next week, with the leading edge of 8 ft seas reaching to near 19N and west of 111W. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest satellite scatterometer data reveal moderate to fresh easterly gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas extend offshore of southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region to near 90W. Moderate north to northeast winds are present in the Gulf of Panama as seen in recent scatterometer satellite data pass. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection recently developed convection from 07N to 09N between 79W and 80W. High north winds of fresh to strong speeds are being produced by this convection. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Panama area. light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed moderate swells exist for the remainder central America offshore waters. For the waters west of Colombia and Ecuador, and near the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to strong with locally rough seas during night time hours offshore of the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through early next week. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula tonight and on again on Fri night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica going into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge stretches southeastward from a 1035 mb high north of the Hawaiian Islands across 30N140W to southeast of the Revillagigedo Islands, and dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure associated withs the ITCZ and a trough analyzed from near 12N125W to 03N135W supports moderate to fresh trades to E trades with 6 to 8 ft seas across most of the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 125W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near the trough from 03N to 10N between 128W and 132W. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are noted north of the ITCZ east of 125W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swell are south near and south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the aforementioned 1036 mb high will continue to strengthen and spread moderate to fresh N to NE winds to east of 125W by Sun. As the high weakens nearly next week, these winds should gradually subside. Seas north of 23N and east of 133W will begin to build late Fri in large northwest swell and reach 10 to 14 ft by Sun. Starting Mon evening, subsiding northwest swell should allow seas to gradually drop through midweek next week. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC150918CCA_C_KWBC_20260515091922_9109880-3255-TWDEP.txt ****0000006088**** AXPZ20 KNHC 150918 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri May 15 2026 Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia southwestward to the border between Panama and Colombia, and continues northwestward to northern Panama and southern Costa Rica and southwestward from there to 10N85W to 06N90W and to 06N95W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N100W to 05.5N110W to 06N120W to 07N128W, where it pauses. It resumes at 07N133W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 07N between 124W-128W, and within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 133W-136W. Scattered moderate within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 104W- 107W, also between 118W-125W and between 136W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between broad ridging west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California is generally allowing for mostly moderate northwest to north winds north of Punta Eugenia and for moderate to fresh northwest to north winds south of Punta Eugenia per latest scatterometer data. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell over the offshore waters of Baja California, except for slighter higher seas of 6 to 8 ft north of Punta Eugenia. A thermal trough extends from the northern Gulf of California south-southeastward to just inland southern Baja California. The related gradient is allowing for moderate west to northwest winds over most of the Gulf, except for fresh southwest winds in the northern section. Seas over the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell at the entrance to the Gulf and 3 to 5 ft over the waters from 24N to 25N. Fresh to strong north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along with seas of 6 to 8 ft while light to gentle mostly west to northwest winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. Isolated showers are seen over the offshore waters of the state of Oaxaca. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds and rough seas will persist at the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning. The fresh southwest winds in the northern Gulf of California are expected to pulse to strong during the nighttime hours this weekend. Winds offshore Baja California are forecast to become fresh to strong in speeds north of Punta Eugenia Fri night through Sun night as the high pressure northwest of the region strengthens. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in large northwest swell will accompany these winds. The northwest swell should spread southward into early next week, with the leading edge of 8 ft seas reaching to near 19N and west of 111W. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest satellite scatterometer data reveal moderate to fresh easterly gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas extend offshore of southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region to near 90W. Moderate north to northeast winds are present in the Gulf of Panama as seen in recent scatterometer satellite data pass. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Panama area. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed moderate swell are over the remainder central America offshore waters. For the waters west of Colombia and Ecuador, and near the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to strong with locally rough seas during night time hours offshore of the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through early next week. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula tonight and on again on Fri night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica going into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge stretches southeastward from a 1035 mb high north of the Hawaiian Islands across 30N140W to southeast of the Revillagigedo Islands, and dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure associated withs the ITCZ and a trough analyzed from near 12N125W to 03N135W supports moderate to fresh trades to E trades with 6 to 8 ft seas across most of the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 125W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near the trough from 03N to 10N between 128W and 132W. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are noted north of the ITCZ east of 125W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swell are south near and south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the aforementioned 1036 mb high will continue to strengthen and spread moderate to fresh N to NE winds to east of 125W by Sun. As the high weakens nearly next week, these winds should gradually subside. Seas north of 23N and east of 133W will begin to build late Fri in large northwest swell and reach 10 to 14 ft by Sun. Starting Mon evening, subsiding northwest swell should allow seas to gradually drop through midweek next week. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC150921CCA_C_KWBC_20260515092249_32440682-244-TWDEP.txt ****0000006096**** AXPZ20 KNHC 150921 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri May 15 2026 Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia southwestward to the border between Panama and Colombia, and continues northwestward to northern Panama and southern Costa Rica and southwestward from there to 10N85W to 06N90W and to 06N95W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N100W to 05.5N110W to 06N120W to 07N128W, where it pauses. It resumes at 07N133W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 07N between 124W-128W, and within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 133W-136W. Scattered moderate within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 104W- 107W, also between 118W-125W and between 136W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between broad ridging west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California is generally allowing for mostly moderate northwest to north winds north of Punta Eugenia and for moderate to fresh northwest to north winds south of Punta Eugenia per latest scatterometer data. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell over the offshore waters of Baja California, except for slighter higher seas of 6 to 8 ft north of Punta Eugenia. A thermal trough extends from the northern Gulf of California south-southeastward to just inland southern Baja California. The related gradient is allowing for moderate west to northwest winds over most of the Gulf, except for fresh southwest winds in the northern section. Seas over the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell at the entrance to the Gulf and 3 to 5 ft over the waters from 24N to 25N. Fresh to strong north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along with seas of 6 to 8 ft while light to gentle mostly west to northwest winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. Isolated showers are seen over the offshore waters of the state of Oaxaca. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds and rough seas will persist at the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning. The fresh southwest winds in the northern Gulf of California are expected to pulse to strong during the nighttime hours this weekend. Winds offshore Baja California are forecast to become fresh to strong in speeds north of Punta Eugenia Fri night through Sun night as the high pressure northwest of the region strengthens. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in large northwest swell will accompany these winds. The northwest swell should spread southward into early next week, with the leading edge of 8 ft seas reaching to near 19N and west of 111W. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest satellite scatterometer data reveal moderate to fresh easterly gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas extend offshore of southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region to near 90W. Moderate north to northeast winds are present in the Gulf of Panama as seen in recent scatterometer satellite data pass. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Panama area. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed moderate swell are over the remainder of the Central American offshore waters. For the waters west of Colombia and Ecuador, and near the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to strong with locally rough seas during night time hours offshore of the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through early next week. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula tonight and on again on Fri night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica going into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge stretches southeastward from a 1035 mb high north of the Hawaiian Islands across 30N140W to southeast of the Revillagigedo Islands, and dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure associated withs the ITCZ and a trough analyzed from near 12N125W to 03N135W supports moderate to fresh trades to E trades with 6 to 8 ft seas across most of the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 125W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near the trough from 03N to 10N between 128W and 132W. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are noted north of the ITCZ east of 125W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swell are south near and south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the aforementioned 1036 mb high will continue to strengthen and spread moderate to fresh N to NE winds to east of 125W by Sun. As the high weakens nearly next week, these winds should gradually subside. Seas north of 23N and east of 133W will begin to build late Fri in large northwest swell and reach 10 to 14 ft by Sun. Starting Mon evening, subsiding northwest swell should allow seas to gradually drop through midweek next week. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC150929CCA_C_KWBC_20260515093022_9109880-3256-TWDEP.txt ****0000006095**** AXPZ20 KNHC 150929 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri May 15 2026 Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia southwestward to the border between Panama and Colombia, and continues northwestward to northern Panama and southern Costa Rica and southwestward from there to 10N85W to 06N90W and to 06N95W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N100W to 05.5N110W to 06N120W to 07N128W, where it pauses. It resumes at 07N133W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 07N between 124W-128W, and within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 133W-136W. Scattered moderate within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 104W- 107W, also between 118W-125W and between 136W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between broad ridging west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California is generally allowing for mostly moderate northwest to north winds north of Punta Eugenia and for moderate to fresh northwest to north winds south of Punta Eugenia per latest scatterometer data. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell over the offshore waters of Baja California, except for slighter higher seas of 6 to 8 ft north of Punta Eugenia. A thermal trough extends from the northern Gulf of California south-southeastward to just inland southern Baja California. The related gradient is allowing for moderate west to northwest winds over most of the Gulf, except for fresh southwest winds in the northern section. Seas over the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell at the entrance to the Gulf and 3 to 5 ft over the waters from 24N to 25N. Fresh to strong north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along with seas of 6 to 8 ft while light to gentle mostly west to northwest winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. Isolated showers are seen over the offshore waters of the state of Oaxaca. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds and rough seas will persist at the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning. The fresh southwest winds in the northern Gulf of California are expected to pulse to strong during the nighttime hours this weekend. Winds offshore Baja California are forecast to become fresh to strong in speeds north of Punta Eugenia Fri night through Sun night as the high pressure northwest of the region strengthens. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in large northwest swell will accompany these winds. The northwest swell should spread southward into early next week, with the leading edge of 8 ft seas reaching to near 19N and west of 111W. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest satellite scatterometer data reveal moderate to fresh easterly gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas extend offshore of southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region to near 90W. Moderate north to northeast winds are present in the Gulf of Panama as seen in recent scatterometer satellite data pass. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Panama area. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed moderate swell are over the remainder of the Central American offshore waters. For the waters west of Colombia and Ecuador, and near the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to strong with locally rough seas during night time hours offshore of the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through early next week. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula tonight and on again on Fri night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica going into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge stretches southeastward from a 1035 mb high north of the Hawaiian Islands across 30N140W to southeast of the Revillagigedo Islands, and dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ and a trough analyzed from near 12N125W to 03N135W supports moderate to fresh trades to E trades with 6 to 8 ft seas across most of the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 125W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen near the trough from 03N to 10N between 128W and 132W. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are noted north of the ITCZ east of 125W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swell are south near and south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the aforementioned 1036 mb high will continue to strengthen and spread moderate to fresh N to NE winds to east of 125W by Sun. As the high weakens nearly next week, these winds should gradually subside. Seas north of 23N and east of 133W will begin to build late Fri in large northwest swell and reach 10 to 14 ft by Sun. Starting Mon evening, subsiding northwest swell should allow seas to gradually drop through midweek next week. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC150950_C_KWBC_20260515095122_9109880-3258-TWDEP.txt ****0000006531**** AXPZ20 KNHC 150950 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri May 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia southwestward to the border between Panama and Colombia, to 06N80W to 08N86W and to 05N95W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N101W to 05N110W to 05N120W to 05N130W and to 04N139W. Numerous moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 122W-130W, also within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 81W-85W, and between 95W-98W, and also within 60 nm south of the trough between 90W-95W and between 126W-131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between broad ridging west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California is generally allowing for mostly moderate northwest to north winds north of Punta Eugenia, and for moderate to fresh northwest to north winds south of Punta Eugenia as indicated in an overnight scatterometer data pass. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell over the offshore waters of Baja California, except for slighter higher seas to 8 ft along 30N. A thermal trough extends from the northern Gulf of California south-southeastward across the Gulf of California. Its related gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate west to northwest winds over most of the Gulf, except for fresh southwest winds in the northern section. An overnight scatterometer satellite data pass depicted most of these winds. Seas over the Gulf are 3 to 4 ft, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell at the entrance to the Gulf and 3 to 5 ft over the waters from 24N to 25N. Fresh to strong north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along with seas of 6 to 8 ft while light to gentle mostly west to northwest winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. Isolated showers are seen over the offshore waters of the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds and rough seas will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning. Moderate to fresh southwest to west gap winds in the northern Gulf of California are expected to pulse to strong at night this weekend. Moderate to fresh northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja California will continue through Sun night, except increasing to fresh to strong speeds west of Baja California Norte along with very rough seas expected to peak to, or near 15 ft in large northwest swell tonight through Sun night due to a quick tightening of the pressure gradient related to a broad and strong area of high pressure northwest of the area that will be shifting eastward. This swell should propagate southward leading to moderate to rough seas west and southwest of Baja California Sur early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest satellite scatterometer data passes reveal moderate to fresh easterly gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas extend offshore of southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region to near 90W. Moderate north to northeast winds are present in the Gulf of Panama as seen in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass. Light to gentle winds and seas of about 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell are over the remainder of the Central American offshore waters. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are over the offshore waters west of Colombia and Ecuador, and to the waters in the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Good coverage of altimeter satellite data passes over these waters indicate seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period southwest swell. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to strong with locally rough seas during night time hours offshore of the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through early next week. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over some of the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica going into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad ridging stretches southeastward from a strong 1035 mb high center located well northwest of the region to near 19N113W. This ridge controls the wind regime north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure related to the ITCZ and a couple of troughs: One analyzed from near 12N128W to 04N140W and the other one from near 12N111W to 06N120.5W supports mostly fresh trades north of 08N west of 134W, and from 09N to 28N between 125W and 134W as revealed in overnight scatterometer data passes. Seas over these waters are 6 to 8 ft per overnight altimeter satellite data passes and few Sofar Ocean Spotter buoys located north of 22N and west of about 123W. The scatterometer satellite data passes show gentle to moderate east to southeast winds south of the ITCZ, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed southeast and southwest long-period swell. For the forecast, the strong 1035 mb high pressure center will slide eastward through the late Sat leading to a tightening of the pressure gradient over the far northeast part of the area. This will usher in fresh to strong northwest to north winds over this same of the area during the weekend. Resultant large north swell will build seas there to near 15 ft. The high is forecast to weaken some early next week allowing for the gradient to slacken just for the fresh to strong to diminish to mostly moderate to fresh speeds. The large north swell will begin to slowly subside from Mon and beyond, with seas west of Baja California dropping to below 12 ft. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################