--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-08-25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC250408_C_KWBC_20260825040945_4522426-1536-TWDEP.txt ****0000007458**** AXPZ20 KNHC 250408 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Iselle is centered near 20.1N 118.6W at 25/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are estimated near 28 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 19N to 23N between 113W and 121W, while scattered to locally numerous moderate convection extends elsewhere from 14N to 19N between 110W and 120W. A short amount of time remains for additional strengthening, and Iselle could briefly become a hurricane. Gradual weakening is then forecast starting later on Tuesday. Swells generated by Iselle are affecting the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula, and will continue for a couple more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Depression Ten-E is centered near 14.5N 120.3W at 25/0300 UTC, moving north-northeast at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 11 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 117W and 122W, while scattered to locally numerous moderate convection extends elsewhere from 06N to 13N between 120W and 130W. Slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a tropical storm early Tuesday before it becomes absorbed by Iselle later that day. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on these two systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 101W, from 02N to 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 13N between 91W and 104W. A tropical wave is along 108W, from 01N to 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 09N to 13N between 103W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N100W to 08N111W, then resumes SW of Iselle from 13N120W to 11N132W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, T.D. Ten-E and T.S. Iselle described above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 10N E of 93W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information about T.S. Iselle. Tropical Storm Iselle is near 20.1N 118.6W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Iselle has weakened the ridge extending into the Baja offshore waters, leading to light to gentle winds across the Baja offshore waters N of 22.5N extending into the coast. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N with seas to 7 ft. For the forecast, Iselle will move to 20.7N 119.9W Tue morning, 21.3N 121.7W Tue evening, 21.8N 123.7W Wed morning, 22.6N 125.1W Wed evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 23.2N 127.0W Thu morning, and become a remnant low and move to 23.6N 129.1W Thu evening. Iselle will dissipate late Fri. Large southerly swell will move through the Baja offshore waters and reach the coasts through Wed morning. Elsewhere, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to strong speeds across Tehuantepec region mainly during the overnight and early morning hours through the upcoming weekend, with seas occasionally building to 8 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 91W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds then continue to near 95W. Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas 5 ft or less in S swell. Scattered thunderstorms extends from the coast of SE Costa Rica and western Panama westward to 90W, while a cluster of strong thunderstorms is just offshore of the coast of Colombia along 06N. For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf of America and northwestern Caribbean throughout the upcoming week, leading to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through the end of the week. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds will persist through Sat night. Cross- equatorial SW swell will move into the area waters Thu night through Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about T.S. Iselle and Tropical Depression Ten-E. High pressure of 1021 mb located near 32N140W extends a broad ridge southeastward across the northern forecast waters to offshore of Baja Norte. Under the influence of this system, and west of Iselle, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are observed from 11N to 26N and W of 120W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere to the north, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, Iselle will move to 20.7N 119.9W Tue morning, 21.3N 121.7W Tue evening, 21.8N 123.7W Wed morning, 22.6N 125.1W Wed evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 23.2N 127.0W Thu morning, and become a remnant low and move to 23.6N 129.1W Thu evening. Iselle will dissipate late Fri. An area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula during the middle part of the week. Gradual development is expected thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week or over the weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure could form well offshore of Central America late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system over the weekend while it moves westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore of southern Mexico. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC250927_C_KWBC_20260825092847_4522426-1559-TWDEP.txt ****0000007867**** AXPZ20 KNHC 250927 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Iselle is centered near 20.7N 119.9W at 25/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are estimated near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 19N to 24N between 113W and 122W, while scattered moderate convection extends elsewhere from 16N to 19N between 113W and 119W. A turn toward the west-northwest and a slower forward speed is expected later today. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days, and Iselle is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by early Friday. Swells generated by Iselle are affecting the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula, and will continue for a couple more days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Former Tropical Depression Ten-E has become Tropical Storm Julio. Tropical Storm Julio is centered near 15.7N 119.8W at 25/0900 UTC, moving north-northeast at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft within 105 nm SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 116W and 122W, while scattered to locally numerous moderate convection extends elsewhere from 05N to 12N between 120W and 130W. Julio is moving toward the north-northeast near 13 kt. This general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected today. Slight strengthening is forecast today before Julio becomes absorbed by Tropical Storm Iselle tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on these two systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 102W, from 02N to 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 13N between 91W and 104W. A tropical wave is along 110W, from 02N to 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 18N between 103W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N85W to 06N96W to 11N112W, then resumes SW of Julio from 14N122W to 10N130W and beyond 10N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, T.S. Julio and T.S. Iselle described above, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N E of 91W, and from 02N to 13N between 129W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information about T.S. Iselle. Tropical Storm Iselle is near 20.7N 119.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The proximity of Iselle continue to support light to gentle winds across the Baja California Norte and SW Mexican offshore waters where seas are moderate to 6 ft. Across the outer Baja California Sur offshore waters, fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas from 8 to 16 ft are present. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate from the WNW and seas remain slight. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N with 5 to 9 ft seas. For the forecast, Iselle will move to 21.3N 121.4W this afternoon, 21.9N 123.2W Wed morning, 22.7N 124.9W Wed afternoon, 23.4N 126.8W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 23.9N 128.8W Thu afternoon, and become a remnant low and move to 24.3N 130.7W Fri morning. Iselle will dissipate early Sat. Large southerly swell associated with Iselle will continue to move through the Baja offshore waters and reach the coasts through Wed night. Elsewhere, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to strong speeds across Tehuantepec region mainly during the overnight and early morning hours through the upcoming weekend, with seas occasionally building to 8-9 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are between the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, except W of Isabela and Fernandina Islands where fresh SSE winds are ongoing. Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with slight to moderate seas in SW swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds will likely pulse to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each night through Sat night building seas to 8-9 ft. Moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through the end of the week. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh S winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue night and then prevail through the remainder forecast period. Otherwise, cross- equatorial SW swell will move into the area waters Thu night through Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about T.S. Iselle and T.S. Julio. High pressure of 1022 mb located near 31N145W extends a broad ridge southeastward to approximately 125W, just West of Iselle. The pressure gradient between these two features is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 11N to 22N and W of 130W per scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are south of the monsoon W of 131W while E winds of similar speed are E of the tropical wave near 102W. South of the monsoon and E of 115W SSW winds are moderate to fresh. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas moderate. For the forecast, a tropical wave located near 102W, well to the SW of SW Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the week while it moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore of Mexico. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next two days and high chance of development through 7 days. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of Central America late this week or this weekend. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore of southern Mexico. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next two days and a medium chance of development through 7 days. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC251620_C_KWBC_20260825162050_4522426-1586-TWDEP.txt ****0000009379**** AXPZ20 KNHC 251620 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Aug 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Iselle is centered near 20.9N 121.1W at 1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are estimated near 28 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 20.5N to 23N between 119W and 121W, while scattered moderate convection extends elsewhere from 20N to 24N between 115W and 122W. This current west- northwest motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, while Iselle gradually weakens due to continued westerly upper level wind shear. Iselle is forecast to become a post- tropical remnant low by early Friday. S-SW swell generated by Iselle is affecting the offshore waters and west coast of the Baja California Peninsula, and will continue through Wed morning before subsiding quickly. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Julio is centered near 18.0N 118.9W at 1500 UTC, moving north-northeast at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 15 ft within 90 nm across the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 15N to 17.5N between 118.5W and 121W, while scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends elsewhere from 10N to 17N between 117W and 124W. Julio has accelerated its forward motion this morning, and combined with northwesterly upper level wind shear, the center has become exposed to the north of the area of strong convection. Julio is expected to move quickly northward, continue to weaken, and gradually become absorbed within the outer eastern circulation of Iselle this evening through tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on these two systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 107W, from 07N to 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 100W and 111W. The tropical wave previously along 110W is gradually merging with the wave now along 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 08N109W, then resumes SW of Julio from 15N122W to low pres near 10N138W 1007 mb to beyond 09.5N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, T.S. Julio and T.S. Iselle described above, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 08.5N E of 90W, and from 02N to 13N between 90W and 100W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 121W and 143W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information about T.S. Iselle. Tropical Storm Iselle is moving away from the Mexican offshore waters, located near 20.9N 121.1W at 8 AM PDT, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 988 mb. The proximity of Iselle continues to disrupt the ridge to its north, and into the Baja offshore waters. This is maintaining light to gentle northerly winds across the Baja California waters and similar N to NE winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in S-SW swell from Iselle across the Baja Sur waters, and 5 to 7 ft across the Baja Norte waters. Seas are 4 to 5 ft elsewhere across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters W of Puerto Angel. Winds and seas are gradually diminishing across the Revillagigedo Islands and area waters as Iselle gradually moves away from that area, as seas remain around 12 ft. Gentle to moderate NW to W gap winds prevail across central and southern portions of the Gulf of California. A large cluster of strong thunderstorms covers much of the area across the entrance to the Gulf to Las Tres Marias, and are supported by an upper level low pressure system. This activity is shifting northward. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N with 6 to 8 ft seas. For the forecast, Iselle will continue to move west-northwestward and away from the area waters, while gradually weakening, reaching near 21.4N 122.5W this evening, and 22.0N 124.1W Wed morning. Large S-SW swell from Iselle will continue to move through the Baja waters today through early Wed before quickly subsiding. Elsewhere, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to strong speeds across Tehuantepec region during the overnight and early morning hours through the upcoming weekend, with seas occasionally building to 8-9 ft. Looking ahead, another tropical wave and developing low pressure area will follow a similar trajectory as Iselle, Thu through the weekend, and impact the outer offshore waters near the Revillagigedo Islands within increasing winds and seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are S of 03N and between the Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with slight to moderate seas in SW swell. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms continue across the waters from 02.5N to 08.5N between Colombia and 90W, including the entrance to the Gulf of Panama, and nearshore waters of western Panama, and Cost Rica. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds will pulse to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each night through Sat night building seas to around 8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through the end of the week. South of the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh S winds will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds Tue night and then prevail through the remainder forecast period. Otherwise, cross- equatorial SW swell will move into the area waters Thu night through Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about T.S. Iselle and T.S. Julio. High pressure of 1020 mb located near 35N130W extends a broad ridge south and southeastward to approximately 118W, and drapes across Iselle. The pressure gradient between these features and low pressure associated with the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 25N and W of 130W per recent satellite scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds are south of the monsoon W of 131W while moderate to fresh E winds accompany the tropical wave near 107W. South of the monsoon trough and between 115W and 125W, fresh S-SW winds are feeding into Julio and the eastern side of Iselle. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas moderate. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Julio will move northward, weaken and gradually become absorbed in the larger circulation of Iselle, as Iselle shifts west-northwestward between 20N and 25N, before dissipating Fri. A tropical wave located near 107W, well to the SW of SW Mexico, is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form by the end of the week while it moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore of Mexico. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next two days and high chance of development through 7 days. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of Central America late this week or this weekend. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph well offshore of southern Mexico. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next two days and a medium chance of development through 7 days. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################