--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-05-10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC100252_C_KWBC_20260510025224_9109880-2916-TWDEP.txt ****0000005819**** AXPZ20 KNHC 100252 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 06N80W to 10N88W to 11N105W to 08N111W to 09.5N121W to 07N127W. The ITCZ extends from 06N128W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 83.5W and 93W, and from 05.5N to 15.5N between 98W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02.5N to 07.5N west of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Afternoon satellite scatterometer data showed moderate NW to N winds across the waters of Baja California, due to the pressure gradient between a broad ridge W of the area and relatively lower pressure in the Baja California region. Fresh winds are assumed to now be occurring near the coast from Punta Eugenia to San Antonio. Seas with these winds are mostly 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail from Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas southward beyond the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo Corrientes to near 17N, where seas are 5 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are in the Gulf of California. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 2 to 4 ft in the southern portion of the Gulf. Winds become gentle to moderate and northerly in direction from the Gulf entrance to Cabo Corrientes, where seas are 5 to 6 ft in SW swell. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere to the east, with moderate seas in a mix of NW and SW swell, except for moderate south winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Numerous moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms have shifted westward in recent hours and are occurring across the outer waters to the southwest of Guerrero and Michoacan. For the forecast, the broad ridge west of the area will support moderate to fresh NW to N winds off Baja California Norte through Mon. Mostly moderate seas in NW swell will continue over these waters through the period. The high pressure will weaken and drift northward moving into the middle part of the week, allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters. Large northwest swell will move into the waters just northwest of Isla Guadalupe this evening through Sun evening, then gradually subside. Looking ahead, strong to near gale gap winds and building seas are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue through Wed night as a cold front moves through southern Mexico. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Midday satellite scatterometer data indicated mostly light to gentle winds over the offshore waters of Central America and southward to Ecuador, with fresh E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 88W. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds filtering through the the Gulf of Panama at that time and to near 05N have increase to moderate to fresh this evening. Combined seas over these waters are 4 to 6 ft, except for higher seas of 7 to 8 ft in SW swell occurring S of 01N and E of 100W to near the coast of Peru. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring near the monsoon trough to the south of Panama and Costa Rica near the monsoon trough between 80W and 87W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse at night to strong across the Papagayo region through the early part of the upcoming week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Large SW swell near the southern waters of the Galapagos will subside late tonight, then increase again on Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb is north of the area near 32N133W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is generally maintaining moderate to fresh trades from 07N to 24N west of 130W, with similar trades from 10N to 25N between 120W and 130W, as noted in afternoon satellite scatterometer data. Altimeter data reveals seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed E and SW swell over this area. Gentle to moderate winds along with seas of about 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere north of 11N per latest altimeter data a few SoFar Ocean Spotter buoy observations. Higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in SW swell are south 11N. Convection over this area is as described above under ITCZ/Monsoon Trough, and has become focused between between 95W and 110W. For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region through early Sun, then weaken and begin to drift northward Sun through Tue. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, north of the ITCZ to about 24N and west of 120W Sun through early next week, with seas of 7 to 8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the upcoming week. Rough seas are expected in building southerly swell south of the Equator tonight, subsiding early on Sun, then another pulse of SW to S swell will begin to approach the waters south of the equator Sun evening through Mon night. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC100821_C_KWBC_20260510082150_38666572-2954-TWDEP.txt ****0000005587**** AXPZ20 KNHC 100821 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun May 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N73W to 07N79W to 10N88W to 11.5N103W to 09N121W to 07N135W. The ITCZ extends from 07N135W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 00.5N to 07N between 78W and 94W, and from 06.5N to 16N between 96W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11.5N west of 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate NW to N winds continue across the waters of Baja California, due to the pressure gradient between a broad ridge W of the area and relatively lower pressure in the Baja California region. Localized areas of fresh winds are occurring near the coast near Punta Eugenia and near Cabo San Lucas. Seas with these winds are mostly 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Gentle northerly winds prevail from Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas southward beyond the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo Corrientes to near 17N, where seas are 5 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. Winds inside the Gulf of California have shifted W to SW in recent hours and are at generally gentle speeds, with a few areas of moderate gap winds. Seas are 1 to 2 ft in the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 2 to 4 ft in the southern portion. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere to the east, with moderate seas in a mix of NW and SW swell. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms continue across the outer waters beyond 90 nm of the coast from Oaxaca to Guerrero and Michoacan. For the forecast, the broad ridge west of the area will support moderate to fresh NW to N winds off Baja California Norte through Sun. Mostly moderate seas in NW swell will continue over these waters through the period, except for rough seas to 8 ft moving into the waters N through NW of Isla Guadalupe today through this evening. The high pressure will weaken and drift northward Mon through the middle part of the week, allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters. High pressure will strengthen slight across the area Wed night through Thu night, leading to moderate to fresh winds across the Baja waters. Looking ahead, fresh to strong gap winds will return to Tehuantepec Mon night, then become strong to near gale-force winds Tue through Wed night as a cold front moves through southern Mexico. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight satellite scatterometer data indicates mostly light to gentle winds over the offshore waters of Central America and southward to Ecuador, with fresh E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 88W. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are spilling into the the Gulf of Panama north of 06.5N. Combined seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 7 to 8 ft in SW swell occurring S of 01N and E of 100W to near the coast of Peru. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring near the monsoon trough from the southeast Gulf of Panama westward across the outer waters to near 90W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse to strong at night across the Papagayo region through the early part of the upcoming week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Large SW swell producing rough seas near 8 ft near the southern waters of the Galapagos will subside today, then increase again late Tue through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1024 mb is centered north of the area near 32N135W. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is generally maintaining moderate to fresh trades from 07N to 24N west of 126W, with similar trades from 10N to 25N between 117W and 126W. Recent satellite altimeter data reveals seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed E and SW swell over this area S of 21N. Gentle to moderate winds with seas of about 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere north of 11N per latest altimeter data a few SoFar Ocean Spotter buoy observations. Higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in SW swell are south 13N. Convection over this area is as described above under ITCZ/Monsoon Trough, and has become focused between between 96W and 112W. For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region through Sun, then weaken and begin to drift northward Mon through Tue. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, north of the ITCZ to about 22N and west of 120W Sun through early next week, with seas of 7 to 8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the upcoming week. Rough seas in building southerly swell south of the Equator tonight will continue through Mon before subsiding Mon night. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC101552_C_KWBC_20260510155230_9109880-2957-TWDEP.txt ****0000006021**** AXPZ20 KNHC 101552 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure in northwest Colombia southwestward to 07N78W to 06N82W to 07N90W to 11N100W to low pressure near 08N108W 1011 mb to 07N117W to low pressure near 07N125W 1011 MB and to 07N130W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 98W-102W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 120W-123W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 130W-138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate northwest to north winds continue across the waters of Baja California, due to the pressure gradient between a broad ridge W of the area and relatively lower pressure in the Baja California region. Localized areas of fresh winds are occurring near the coast near Punta Eugenia and near Cabo San Lucas. Seas with these winds are mostly 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell. Gentle northerly winds prevail from Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas southward beyond the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo Corrientes to near 17N, where seas are 5 to 6 ft in mixed northwest to southwest swell. Winds inside the Gulf of California are generally at gentle speeds, with a few areas of moderate gap winds. Seas are 1 to 2 ft in the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 2 to 4 ft in the southern portion. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere to the east, with moderate seas in a mix of northwest and southwest swell. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the outer waters beyond 90 nm of the coast from Oaxaca to Guerrero and Michoacan. For the forecast, the broad ridge west of the area will support moderate to fresh northwest to north winds off Baja California Norte today. Mostly moderate seas in northwest swell will continue over these waters through the period, except for rough seas to 8 ft over the waters north through northwest of Isla Guadalupe. The high pressure will weaken and drift northward Mon through the middle part of the week, allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters. A new area of high pressure will build southeastward across the region Wed night through Thu night, leading to mostly fresh northwest to north winds across the Baja waters. Looking ahead, fresh to strong gap winds will return to Tehuantepec Mon night, then become strong to near gale-force winds Tue through Wed night as a cold front moves through southern Mexico. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight satellite scatterometer data indicates mostly light to gentle winds over the offshore waters of Central America and southward to Ecuador, with fresh to strong east gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 88W. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are spilling into the the Gulf of Panama north of 06.5N. Combined seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 7 to 8 ft in long-period southwest swell present south 01N and east of about 100W to near the coast of Peru as noted in recent altimeter satellite data. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring near the monsoon trough from the southeast Gulf of Panama westward across the outer waters to near 90W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse to strong at night across the Papagayo region through the the middle of the upcoming week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Large SW swell producing rough seas near 8 ft near the southern waters of the Galapagos will subside late today, then increase again late Tue through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1022 mb is centered north of the area near 31N136W. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is generally maintaining moderate to fresh trades from 08N to 25N west of 126W, with similar trades from 10N to 25N between 117W and 126W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed east and southwest swell are over this area south of 21N and west of about 122W. Gentle to moderate winds along with seas of about 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere north of 11N per latest altimeter data a few SoFar Ocean Spotter buoy observations. Higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in southwest swell are south 13N. Convection over this area is as described above under ITCZ/Monsoon Trough, and has become focused between between 96W and 112W, with a newer area of convection near the ITCZ between 130W and 138W. For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region today before it weakens and begin to drift northward Mon through Tue. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, north of the ITCZ to about 22N and west of 120W Sun through early next week, with seas of 7 to 8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the upcoming week. Rough seas to 8 ft in southerly swell will begin to impact a portion of the far south-central waters starting tonight, spreading eastward in coverage some tonight into Mon before decaying later on Mon and into Tue. $$ Aguirre --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC101553_C_KWBC_20260510155430_9109880-2958-TWDEP.txt ****0000006030**** AXPZ20 KNHC 101553 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure in northwest Colombia southwestward to 07N78W to 06N82W to 07N90W to 11N100W to low pressure near 08N108W 1011 mb to 07N117W to low pressure near 07N125W 1011 MB and to 07N130W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 98W-102W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the trough between 120W-123W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 130W-138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate northwest to north winds continue across the waters of Baja California, due to the pressure gradient between a broad ridge W of the area and relatively lower pressure in the Baja California region. Localized areas of fresh winds are occurring near the coast near Punta Eugenia and near Cabo San Lucas. Seas with these winds are mostly 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell. Gentle northerly winds prevail from Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas southward beyond the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo Corrientes to near 17N, where seas are 5 to 6 ft in mixed northwest to southwest swell. Winds inside the Gulf of California are generally at gentle speeds, with a few areas of moderate gap winds. Seas are 1 to 2 ft in the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 2 to 4 ft in the southern portion. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere to the east, with moderate seas in a mix of northwest and southwest swell. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the outer waters beyond 90 nm of the coast from Oaxaca to Guerrero and Michoacan. For the forecast, the broad ridge west of the area will support moderate to fresh northwest to north winds off Baja California Norte today. Mostly moderate seas in northwest swell will continue over these waters through the period, except for rough seas to 8 ft over the waters north through northwest of Isla Guadalupe. The high pressure will weaken and drift northward Mon through the middle part of the week, allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters. A new area of high pressure will build southeastward across the region Wed night through Thu night, leading to mostly fresh northwest to north winds across the Baja waters. Looking ahead, fresh to strong gap winds will return to Tehuantepec Mon night, then become strong to near gale-force winds Tue through Wed night as a cold front moves through southern Mexico. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight satellite scatterometer data indicates mostly light to gentle winds over the offshore waters of Central America and southward to Ecuador, with fresh to strong east gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 88W. Moderate to locally fresh N winds are spilling into the the Gulf of Panama north of 06.5N. Combined seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft, except for higher seas of 7 to 8 ft in long-period southwest swell present south 01N and east of about 100W to near the coast of Peru as noted in recent altimeter satellite data. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring near the monsoon trough from the southeast Gulf of Panama westward across the outer waters to near 90W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse to strong at night across the Papagayo region through the the middle of the upcoming week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Large southwest swell producing rough seas near 8 ft near the southern waters of the Galapagos will subside late today, then increase again late Tue through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1022 mb is centered north of the area near 31N136W. The pressure gradient between this high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is generally maintaining moderate to fresh trades from 08N to 25N west of 126W, with similar trades from 10N to 25N between 117W and 126W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed east and southwest swell are over this area south of 21N and west of about 122W. Gentle to moderate winds along with seas of about 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere north of 11N per latest altimeter data a few SoFar Ocean Spotter buoy observations. Higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in southwest swell are south 13N. Convection over this area is as described above under ITCZ/Monsoon Trough, and has become focused between between 96W and 112W, with a newer area of convection near the ITCZ between 130W and 138W. For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region today before it weakens and begin to drift northward Mon through Tue. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, north of the ITCZ to about 22N and west of 120W Sun through early next week, with seas of 7 to 8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the upcoming week. Rough seas to 8 ft in southerly swell will begin to impact a portion of the far south-central waters starting tonight, spreading eastward in coverage some tonight into Mon before decaying later on Mon and into Tue. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################