--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-01-29 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC290402_C_KWBC_20260129040303_12124482-5057-TWDEP.txt ****0000006813**** AXPZ20 KNHC 290402 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure surging southward over eastern Mexico and relatively lower pressure south of Mexico is resulting in 30 to 40 kt north to northeast gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Seas are currently 10 to 16 ft with these winds. A ship reported northeast winds of 35 kt a few hours ago near the location of 16N95.5W. These winds are forecast to diminish to fresh to strong speeds Thu afternoon and continue into early on Fri. Seas will subside to 8 to 11 ft Thu and to 6 to 8 ft on Fri. However, arctic high pressure will again build southward over eastern Mexico beginning Fri, with the gradient again tightening over southeastern Mexico. North winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will reach near gale speeds Fri afternoon and to gale- force late Fri night, possibly lasting until later in the weekend. These winds may reach strong gale speeds late on Sat. Seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will are expected to build to 11 to 17 ft late on Sat. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml for more details on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 low that is over northwest Colombia westward to across southern Panama and northwestward to 10N85W and to 14N91W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N100W to 0N115W to 06N30W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm southeast of the trough between 86W-89W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu morning. See the Special Features section above for more details. The pressure gradient between surface ridging west of the Baja Peninsula and a surface trough over the Baja and Gulf of California region supports mostly moderate northwest winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, winds over the remainder of the Mexican waters are northwest to north in direction, and gentle to moderate in speeds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft east of 98W, where northeast swell generated from the ongoing gale event has boosted seas over these waters. Isolated showers are noted from 18N to 23N and from just along and inland the coast of Mexico west to 108W. For the forecast outside of the Tehuantepec region, high pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue to force moderate to fresh northwest winds across the Gulf of California before diminishing Sat night. Large northwest swell will reach the waters west of Baja California Norte on Thu and Fri. There is also potential for another set of northwest swell to move through the waters west of Baja California Norte late this weekend or early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite data pass shows fresh to strong northeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. North moderate to fresh gap winds are in Gulf of Panama area along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event is generating northwest to north producing seas up of to 10 ft across the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. Over the remainder of forecast waters, winds are gentle to moderate in speeds along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in northwest to north swell. Higher seas of 5 to 6 ft are elsewhere over the offshore waters of northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. For the forecast, high pressure over Central America and the western Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region through Sat, except reaching near gale speeds Thu night and Sat night into early Sun. Gale-force winds are possible Sun through Mon. The same high pressure will force moderate to fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama for the next several days. Elsewhere, a strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event forcing large northwest to north spreading across the Guatemala and El Salvador waters should continue through Thu night. Looking ahead, a new Tehuantepec event should again produce large to very large northwest to north swell over Guatemala/El Salvador waters Sat night into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1029 is located well north of the area at 35N136.5W. A ridge extends from the high south-southwestward to near 16N140W. A relatively weak pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures in the deep tropics is forcing generally moderate to fresh trades from the Equator to near 22N. An upper -level trough is driving scattered showers and thunderstorms from the ITCZ to about 20N between 118W and 1250W, which are leading to locally strong northeast to east trades. Large northwest swell is moving through the northwest part of the area, northwest of a line from 30N130W to 20N140W. The strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forcing seas of 8-10 ft in N to NW swell down to 03N between 90W-110W. Elsewhere, moderate seas in mixed swell prevail. For the forecast, building high pressure north of our region will enhance the trades, causing a larger area of fresh to locally strong northeast winds and seas of 6-8 ft from Thu through Fri. The large NW swell will continue moving southeastward reaching 08N by Fri and gradually diminishing. On Fri evening, a new cold front will reach 30N140W with fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the boundary. However, the cold front will gradually weaken while it moves steadily eastward through the weekend. Large to very large NW swell will follow the cold front and impact the northern waters this weekend. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC290403_C_KWBC_20260129040420_25559334-1425-TWDEP.txt ****0000006830**** AXPZ20 KNHC 290403 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure surging southward over eastern Mexico and relatively lower pressure south of Mexico is resulting in 30 to 40 kt north to northeast gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Seas are currently 10 to 16 ft with these winds. A ship reported northeast winds of 35 kt a few hours ago near the location of 16N95.5W. These winds are forecast to diminish to fresh to strong speeds Thu afternoon and continue into early on Fri. Seas will subside to 8 to 11 ft Thu and to 6 to 8 ft on Fri. However, arctic high pressure will again build southward over eastern Mexico beginning Fri, with the gradient again tightening over southeastern Mexico. North winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will reach near gale speeds Fri afternoon and to gale- force late Fri night, possibly lasting until later in the weekend. These winds may reach strong gale speeds late on Sat. Seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will are expected to build to 11 to 17 ft late on Sat. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml for more details on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 low that is over northwest Colombia westward to across southern Panama and northwestward to 10N85W and to 14N91W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N100W to 0N115W to 06N30W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm southeast of the trough between 86W-89W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu morning. See the Special Features section above for more details. The pressure gradient between surface ridging west of the Baja Peninsula and a surface trough over the Baja and Gulf of California region supports mostly moderate northwest winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, winds over the remainder of the Mexican waters are northwest to north in direction, and gentle to moderate in speeds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft east of 98W, where northeast swell generated from the ongoing gale event has boosted seas over these waters. Isolated showers are noted from 18N to 23N and from just along and inland the coast of Mexico west to 108W. For the forecast outside of the Tehuantepec region, high pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue to force moderate to fresh northwest winds across the Gulf of California before diminishing Sat night. Large northwest swell will reach the waters west of Baja California Norte on Thu and Fri. There is also potential for another set of northwest swell to move through the waters west of Baja California Norte late this weekend or early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite data pass shows fresh to strong northeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. North moderate to fresh gap winds are in Gulf of Panama area along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event is generating northwest to north producing seas up of to 10 ft across the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. Over the remainder of forecast waters, winds are gentle to moderate in speeds along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in northwest to north swell. Higher seas of 5 to 6 ft are elsewhere over the offshore waters of northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. For the forecast, high pressure over Central America and the western Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region through Sat, except reaching near gale speeds Thu night and Sat night into early Sun. Gale-force winds are possible Sun through Mon. The same high pressure will force moderate to fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama for the next several days. Elsewhere, a strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event forcing large northwest to north spreading across the Guatemala and El Salvador waters should continue through Thu night. Looking ahead, a new Tehuantepec event should again produce large to very large northwest to north swell over Guatemala/El Salvador waters Sat night into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1029 is located well north of the area at 35N136.5W. A ridge extends from the high south-southwestward to near 16N140W. A relatively weak pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures in the deep tropics is forcing generally moderate to fresh trades from the Equator to near 22N. An upper -level trough is driving scattered showers and thunderstorms from the ITCZ to about 20N between 118W and 1250W, which are leading to locally strong northeast to east trades. Large northwest swell is moving through the northwest part of the area, northwest of a line from 30N130W to 20N140W. The strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forcing seas of 8 to 10 ft in northwest to north swell down to 03N between 90W-110W. Elsewhere, moderate seas in mixed swell prevail. For the forecast, building high pressure north of our region will enhance the trades, causing a larger area of fresh to locally strong northeast winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft from Thu through Fri. The large NW swell will continue moving southeastward reaching 08N by Fri and gradually diminishing. On Fri evening, a new cold front will reach 30N140W with fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the boundary. However, the cold front will gradually weaken while it moves steadily eastward through the weekend. Large to very large NW swell will follow the cold front and impact the northern waters this weekend. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC290404_C_KWBC_20260129040503_12124482-5059-TWDEP.txt ****0000006839**** AXPZ20 KNHC 290404 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure surging southward over eastern Mexico and relatively lower pressure south of Mexico is resulting in 30 to 40 kt north to northeast gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Seas are currently 10 to 16 ft with these winds. A ship reported northeast winds of 35 kt a few hours ago near the location of 16N95.5W. These winds are forecast to diminish to fresh to strong speeds Thu afternoon and continue into early on Fri. Seas will subside to 8 to 11 ft Thu and to 6 to 8 ft on Fri. However, arctic high pressure will again build southward over eastern Mexico beginning Fri, with the gradient again tightening over southeastern Mexico. North winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will reach near gale speeds Fri afternoon and to gale- force late Fri night, possibly lasting until later in the weekend. These winds may reach strong gale speeds late on Sat. Seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will are expected to build to 11 to 17 ft late on Sat. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml for more details on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1010 low that is over northwest Colombia westward to across southern Panama and northwestward to 10N85W and to 14N91W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N100W to 0N115W to 06N30W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm southeast of the trough between 86W-89W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu morning. See the Special Features section above for more details. The pressure gradient between surface ridging west of the Baja Peninsula and a surface trough over the Baja and Gulf of California region supports mostly moderate northwest winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, winds over the remainder of the Mexican waters are northwest to north in direction, and gentle to moderate in speeds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft east of 98W, where northeast swell generated from the ongoing gale event has boosted seas over these waters. Isolated showers are noted from 18N to 23N and from just along and inland the coast of Mexico west to 108W. For the forecast outside of the Tehuantepec region, high pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue to force moderate to fresh northwest winds across the Gulf of California before diminishing Sat night. Large northwest swell will reach the waters west of Baja California Norte on Thu and Fri. There is also potential for another set of northwest swell to move through the waters west of Baja California Norte late this weekend or early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite data pass shows fresh to strong northeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. North moderate to fresh gap winds are in Gulf of Panama area along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event is generating northwest to north producing seas up of to 10 ft across the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. Over the remainder of forecast waters, winds are gentle to moderate in speeds along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in northwest to north swell. Higher seas of 5 to 6 ft are elsewhere over the offshore waters of northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. For the forecast, high pressure over Central America and the western Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region through Sat, except reaching near gale speeds Thu night and Sat night into early Sun. Gale-force winds are possible Sun through Mon. The same high pressure will force moderate to fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama for the next several days. Elsewhere, a strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event forcing large northwest to north spreading across the Guatemala and El Salvador waters should continue through Thu night. Looking ahead, a new Tehuantepec event should again produce large to very large northwest to north swell over Guatemala/El Salvador waters Sat night into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1029 is located well north of the area at 35N136.5W. A ridge extends from the high south-southwestward to near 16N140W. A relatively weak pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures in the deep tropics is forcing generally moderate to fresh trades from the Equator to near 22N. An upper -level trough is driving scattered showers and thunderstorms from the ITCZ to about 20N between 118W and 1250W, which are leading to locally strong northeast to east trades. Large northwest swell is moving through the northwest part of the area, northwest of a line from 30N130W to 20N140W. The ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event is forcing seas of 8 to 10 ft in northwest to north swell down to 03N between 90W and 110W. Elsewhere, moderate seas in mixed swell prevail. For the forecast, building high pressure north of our region will enhance the trades, causing a larger area of fresh to locally strong northeast winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft from Thu through Fri. The large NW swell will continue moving southeastward reaching 08N by Fri and gradually diminishing. On Fri evening, a new cold front will reach 30N140W with fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the boundary. However, the cold front will gradually weaken while it moves steadily eastward through the weekend. Large to very large NW swell will follow the cold front and impact the northern waters this weekend. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################