--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2024-07-27 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC270403_C_KWBC_20240727040429_25165836-3733-TWDEP.txt ****0000004820**** AXPZ20 KNHC 270403 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Bud NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends N of 04N into the Caribbean Sea with axis near 80W, moving westward at 20-25 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 05N to 13N between 78W and 91W. A tropical wave extends from 07N to 19N with axis near 112W, moving slowly west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 16N between 110W and 119W. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 18N with axis near 132W, moving west at around 10 kt. There is no deep convection associated with this wave at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 16N116W, then resumes from 15N122W to 11N131W. The ITCZ extends from 15N126W to beyond 11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 14N between 96W and 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A thin plume of moderate to locally fresh N winds is in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, including in the Gulf of California. Locally fresh W to NW winds are over Cabo San Lucas adjacent waters. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the open waters in mainly S to SW swell, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, except to 4 ft near the entrance. For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will pulse in the Gulf of California this weekend. Fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec at times. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere through the next several days, except increasing to moderate to fresh off Baja California Norte early next week. Moderate seas will persist across the open waters, building somewhat off Baja California early next week. Otherwise, an area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in mainly S to SW swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through the middle of next week, locally strong Sun night through Mon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud are centered near 19N 121W at 0000 UTC and are lacking deep convection. Fresh to strong winds are within 60 nm N semicircle of the low center. Seas are 7 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 21N and west of 130W. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and west of 120W. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range across these waters above, mainly in merging NE and SE swells. Aside from these winds and the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud, gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters, with 4-7 ft seas, highest west of 110W. For the forecast, the remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud will move to 19.1N 121.8W Sat morning, 18.9N 123.4W Sat afternoon, 18.5N 125.0W Sun morning, 17.8N 126.6W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. South of 20N and west of 120W, moderate to fresh winds combined with long-period southerly swell will support seas of 7-9 ft through Sat evening. Marine conditions may become more tranquil by the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################