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         TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES       

T1T2: AX
A1A2: PZ

Date: 2026-06-15

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Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC150401_C_KWBC_20260615040134_32440682-2892-TWDEP.txt

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AXPZ20 KNHC 150401

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0350 UTC.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W extending from Honduras 

southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and

isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 84W 

and 97W.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 10N117W to 05N140W. A 

1007 mb low is embedded within the monsoon trough near 08N132W. 

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N 

to 12N between 120W and 140W. In addition to the convection

associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated

strong is also ongoing from 03N to 13N between 106W and 117W.  



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A surface trough extends across the Gulf of California. The 

pressure gradient between the trough and surface ridging to the

west is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the

Baja Peninsula offshores N of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle to

moderate NW winds elsewhere southward to Cabo San Lucas. In the 

Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate from the SSW and

seas are slight. A weak pressure gradient across the remainder 

of the discussion waters is supporting light to gentle winds with 

5 to 6 ft seas in SW swell. 



For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 

the waters of Baja California, pulsing to locally fresh speeds at

night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds are expected inside

the Gulf of California and near the tip of Baja California Sur, 

reaching locally fresh winds midweek. Light to gentle winds will 

prevail over the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec. 



....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate to fresh winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle 

to moderate winds are found between the Galapagos Islands and 

Colombia. Gentle winds are found elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 

ft range across the discussion waters.



For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and moderate 

seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and 

the Galapagos Islands through Fri night. Moderate winds will 

pulse to fresh in diurnal offshore flow in the immediate Gulf of 

Papagayo tonight through Mon night. Light to gentle winds and 

slight to moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A 1007 mb low is centered near 08N132W. Scattered moderate 

isolated strong convection is noted in the environment of the

low from 03N to 12N between 120W and 140W. In addition moderate

to fresh winds are within 240 nm of the low center, likely

reaching strong speeds in the areas of strongest convection and

thunderstorm activity. Rough seas to 10 ft are also within that

distance from the low center. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 

and moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure located well 

southwest of the Baja California Peninsula could support some 

gradual development during the next day or two while the system 

moves northward and then northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. Thereafter,

increasing dry mid-level air is expected to limit further 

development. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate 

seas will prevail.

 

$$

Ramos


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