--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-09-14 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC140358_C_KWBC_20260914035918_4522426-3494-TWDEP.txt ****0000006357**** AXPZ20 KNHC 140358 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 19.2N 135.3W at 14/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are up to 17 ft, or 5 m. The center is partially exposed, with numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm in the NE quadrant of Norbert, with scattered moderate convection within 120 nm SE quadrant. Norbert is expected to move west-northwestward to westward during the next few days. While some fluctuations in intensity remain possible in the next 12 h or so, Norbert is forecast to begin a weakening trend that should persist through the forecast period. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 17.0N 118.3W at 14/0300 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 8 to 11 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm in the SE quadrant, with scattered moderate convection extending out to 240 nm elsewhere in the southeast semicircle. The depression on a mainly westward track with a slightly increase in forward speed for the next during the couple of days. Only slight short-term strengthening is called for and the system is expected to begin weakening in a day or so, with the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low in 96 hours or sooner. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Norbert and Fifteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 100W from 05N to 13N, moving west at 15-20 kt. Associated convection is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N100W to 08N115W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 05N to 11N between 85W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. Divergent flow aloft north of an upper low is supporting a line of showers and thunderstorms from 15N105W to across the Mexican coast of Nayarit. Fresh N gap winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas prevail across Mexican offshore waters, with 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a ridge will build across the offshore waters of Baja California, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds through the early part of the week. Expect fresh winds across the northern Gulf of California through the early part of the week due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the Colorado River valley, locally strong Mon night. Winds will freshen again off Baja California by the end of the week, locally strong near Punta Eugenia. Looking ahead, expect strong to near- gale N gap winds and rough seas across the Tehuantepec by the middle of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and locally rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to near 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent, except slight seas offshore Colombia and western Panama. Convection continues to develop on either side of the monsoon trough. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely occurring near thunderstorms. For the forecast, the ridge north of the area will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across the Papagayo region through early Thu, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night into early Thu. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere along with moderate seas, except locally rough southwest of the Galapagos Islands through Mon, and slight offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Norbert and Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. Away from the impacts of T.S. Norbert and T.D. Fifteen-E, mainly moderate to fresh winds cover the waters north of 15N and west of 115W. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds and rough seas are found south of 05N between 95W and 130W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate seas. For the forecast, Norbert will move to 19.5N 137.2W Mon morning, 20.0N 139.8W Mon evening, then move west of the area to 20.4N 142.5W Tue morning. Norbert will weaken to a remnant low near 20.6N 145.2W Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. Meanwhile, Fifteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 16.8N 119.6W Mon morning, move to 16.5N 121.4W Mon evening, 16.3N 123.4W Tue morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 16.0N 125.8W Tue evening, 15.7N 128.3W Wed morning, and 15.4N 130.8W Wed evening. Fifteen-E will become a remnant low as it moves to 15.5N 135.5W late Thu. Elsewhere, a cross equatorial swell will persist over the next several days producing seas to 9 ft south of 05N. A tight pressure gradient will result in locally fresh N winds and rough seas in the north of 22N and east of 125W through the early part of the week. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC140908_C_KWBC_20260914090921_4522426-3516-TWDEP.txt ****0000006296**** AXPZ20 KNHC 140908 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 19.3N 136.4W at 14/0900 UTC, moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are up to 18 ft, or 5.5 m. The center is partially exposed, with numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the NE semicircle. Norbert is expected to move west-northwestward to westward during the next few days. Norbert is forecast to begin a weakening trend that should persist through the forecast period. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 16.5N 118.9W at 14/0900 UTC, moving west-southwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 8 to 11 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 90 nm in the SE quadrant, with scattered moderate convection extending out to 240 nm elsewhere in the southeast semicircle. The depression on a mainly westward track with a slightly increase in forward speed for the next during the couple of days. Only slight short-term strengthening is called for and the system is expected to begin weakening in a day or so, with the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low in 96 hours or sooner. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Norbert and Fifteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 100W/101W from 05N to 13N, moving west at 15 kt. Associated convection is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N115W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 05N to 12N between 85W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. Divergent flow aloft north of an upper low is supporting a line of showers and thunderstorms from 15N105W to across the Mexican coast of Sinaloa. Fresh N gap winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas prevail across Mexican offshore waters, with 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a ridge will build across the offshore waters of Baja California, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds through the early part of the week. Expect fresh winds across the northern Gulf of California through the early part of the week due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the Colorado River valley, locally strong tonight. Winds will freshen again off Baja California by the end of the week, locally strong near Punta Eugenia. Looking ahead, expect strong to near- gale N gap winds and rough seas across the Tehuantepec by the middle of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and locally rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to near 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent, except slight seas offshore Colombia and western Panama. Convection continues to develop on either side of the monsoon trough. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely occurring near thunderstorms. For the forecast, the ridge north of the area will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across the Papagayo region through early Thu, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night into early Thu. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere along with moderate seas, except locally rough southwest of the Galapagos Islands through Mon, and slight offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Norbert and Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. Away from the impacts of T.S. Norbert and T.D. Fifteen-E, mainly moderate to fresh winds cover the waters north of 15N and west of 115W. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds and rough seas are found south of 05N between 95W and 130W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate seas. For the forecast, Norbert will move to 19.7N 138.4W this afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 20.2N 141.2W Tue morning, become a remnant low and move to 20.5N 143.9W Tue afternoon, 20.7N 146.4W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. Meanwhile, Fifteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 16.3N 120.1W this afternoon, move to 16.1N 122.3W Tue morning, and to 15.8N 124.6W Tue afternoon. Fifteen-E will weaken to a tropical depression near 15.4N 127.1W Wed morning, then move to 15.0N 129.6W Wed afternoon. Fifteen-E will become a remnant low and move to 14.7N 132.2W Thu morning, then will change little in intensity as it moves to the 14.5N 137.0W early Fri. Elsewhere, a cross equatorial swell will persist over the next several days producing seas to 9 ft south of 05N. A tight pressure gradient will result in locally fresh N winds and rough seas in the north of 22N and east of 125W through the early part of the week. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC141601_C_KWBC_20260914160153_31523192-3547-TWDEP.txt ****0000006722**** AXPZ20 KNHC 141601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 19.4N 137.8W at 14/1500 UTC, moving west at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are up to 16 ft. Norbert is a sheared storm, with numerous moderate to strong convection noted from 18N to 23N between 134W and 138W. Norbert is moving toward the west near 15 kt and is expected to maintain this general motion during the next couple of days. A gradual weakening trend is forecast during the next couple of days, and Norbert could become a post- tropical cyclone tomorrow. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 16.3N 119.7W at 14/1500 UTC, moving west-southwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 8 to 10 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 19N between 115W and 121W, with scattered moderate convection elsewhere from 09N to 14N between 115W and 129W. The depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 9 kt and this motion is expected to continue for the next several days with some gradual acceleration. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. The system is expected to weaken beginning Tuesday night or Wednesday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Norbert and Fifteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 101W from 04N to 13N, moving west at 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 17N between 98W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N95W to 06N110W to 07N129W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 03N to 14N E of 95W, from 02N to 07N between 108W and 120W, from 02N to 10N between 121W and 134W, and from 06N to 12N W of 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. Heavy showers and tstms are across the SW Mexican offshores between Chiapas and Guerrero as well as the entrance of the Gulf of California. Moderte to fresh N to NE winds are in the Tehuantepec region, while moderate easterlies are elsewhere from Chiapas to Guerrero. However, strong to gusty winds are likely in the areas of strong convection. Moderate SE winds are along the Gulf of California while NW winds of the same speed are N of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 7 to 8 ft N of Punta Eugenia, and 1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a ridge will build across the offshore waters of Baja California, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds through the early part of the week. Expect fresh winds across the northern Gulf of California through the early part of the week due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the Colorado River valley. Winds will freshen again off Baja California by the end of the week, locally strong near Punta Eugenia. Looking ahead, expect strong to near-gale N gap winds and rough seas across the Tehuantepec by the middle of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to strong easterly trade winds with moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to near 90W. Moderate to fresh winds from this gap wind extends to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Convection continues to develop on either side of the monsoon trough. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely occurring near thunderstorms. For the forecast, the ridge north of the area will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across the Papagayo region through early Thu, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night into early Thu. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere along with moderate seas, except locally rough southwest of the Galapagos Islands through Mon, and slight offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Norbert and Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. Away from the impacts of T.S. Norbert and T.D. Fifteen-E, mainly moderate to fresh winds cover the waters north of 15N and west of 115W. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds and rough seas are found south of 02N to the W of The Galapagos to 114W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate seas. For the forecast, Norbert will weaken to a tropical depression near 19.8N 139.8W this evening, move to 20.2N 142.4W Tue morning, become a remnant low and move to 20.4N 145.1W Tue evening, 20.6N 147.8W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Meanwhile, Fifteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 16.1N 121.0W this evening, move to 15.9N 123.2W Tue morning, 15.6N 125.3W Tue evening, 15.4N 127.4W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 15.3N 129.6W Wed evening, and become a remnant low and move to 15.2N 132.1W Thu morning. Fifteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves near 15.2N 137.0W early Fri. Elsewhere, a cross equatorial swell will persist over the next several days producing seas to 9 ft south of 05N. A tight pressure gradient will result in locally fresh N winds and rough seas in the north of 22N and east of 125W through the early part of the week. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC142204_C_KWBC_20260914220456_31523192-3574-TWDEP.txt ****0000006386**** AXPZ20 KNHC 142204 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Sep 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 19.7N 139.2W at 14/2100 UTC, moving west at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are up to 15 ft. Norbert is a sheared storm, with numerous moderate convection noted from 18N to 23N between 134W and 139W. Norbert is moving toward the west near 15 kt and is expected to maintain this general motion during the next couple of days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Norbert is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low tomorrow. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 16.9N 120.5W at 14/2100 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 19N between 114W and 121W, with scattered moderate convection elsewhere from 09N to 14N between 111W and 127W. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 kt and this generally westward motion should continue for the next several days with some increase in forward speed. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. The system is expected to weaken beginning Tuesday night or Wednesday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Norbert and Fifteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 102W from 04N to 13N, moving west at 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 04N to 15N between 91W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N97W to 06N122W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 04N to 15N E of 93W, and from 00N to 07N between 106W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Scattered showers and tstms are across the SW Mexican offshores between Chiapas and Guerrero as well as the southern half of the Gulf of California. Moderte to fresh N to NE winds are in the Tehuantepec region, while moderate easterlies are elsewhere from Chiapas to Guerrero. Moderate to fresh SE winds are in the northern half of the Gulf of California while NW winds of the same speed are N of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 7 to 8 ft N of Punta Eugenia, and 1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a ridge will build across the offshore waters of Baja California, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds through the midweek. Expect fresh winds across the northern Gulf of California through the early part of the week due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the Colorado River valley. Winds will freshen again off Baja California by the end of the week, locally strong near Punta Eugenia. Looking ahead, expect strong to near-gale N gap winds and rough seas across the Tehuantepec by the middle of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area is promoting fresh to strong easterly trade winds with moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to near 90W. Moderate to fresh winds from this gap wind extends to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Convection continues to develop on either side of the monsoon trough. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely occurring near thunderstorms. For the forecast, the ridge north of the area will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across the Papagayo region through early Thu, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night into early Thu. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere along with moderate seas, except locally rough southwest of the Galapagos Islands through Mon, and slight offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Norbert and Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. Away from the impacts of T.S. Norbert and T.D. Fifteen-E, mainly moderate to fresh winds cover the waters north of 15N and west of 115W. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds and rough seas are found south of 02N to the W of The Galapagos to 114W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate seas. For the forecast, Norbert will weaken to a tropical depression near 20.0N 141.3W Tue morning, become a remnant low and move to 20.2N 143.9W Tue afternoon, 20.4N 146.6W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. Meanwhile, Fifteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 16.7N 121.8W Tue morning, move to 16.6N 123.7W Tue afternoon, 16.4N 125.4W Wed morning, 16.4N 127.3W Wed afternoon, 16.6N 129.7W Thu morning, and weaken to a remnant low near 16.9N 132.1W Thu afternoon. Fifteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves near 17.5N 136.4W Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, a cross equatorial swell will persist over the next several days producing seas to 9 ft south of 05N. A tight pressure gradient will result in locally fresh N winds and rough seas in the north of 22N and east of 125W through midweek. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################