--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-04-16 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC160236_C_KWBC_20260416023722_9109880-1284-TWDEP.txt ****0000003449**** AXPZ20 KNHC 160236 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Apr 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from coastal Colombia at 08N78W to 04N81W to 07N92W to 04N115W. The ITCZ extends from 04N115W to beyond 07N140W. Southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 04S106W to 02S137W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03S-05N between 86W-97W and from 04N-07N between 105W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends from 30N125W to 20N110W to 15N108W. Winds on the east side of the ridge are NW moderate to fresh over the Pacific waters NW of Cape Corrientes and over the S Gulf of California. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-6 ft in NW swell NW of Cape Corrientes, 4-5 ft in S swell SE of Cape Corrientes, 3-5 ft over the S Gulf of California, and 1-2 ft over the N Gulf of California. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, quiescent conditions will prevail across the Mexican offshores tonight and tomorrow. Developing low pressure over the SW United States will induce fresh to strong SW winds over the N Gulf of California Thu night before diminishing on Fri. Elsewhere, large NW swell will impact the Pacific waters west of Baja California Norte Thu night through Fri night. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the Gulf of America should cause a Tehuanteper gap wind event Sun night into Mon night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds across the forecast waters are moderate or weaker this evening with seas of 4-7 ft in S swell. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03S-05N between 86W-97W and from 04N-07N between 105W-140W including the waters near the Galapagos. For the forecast, high pressure over the W Caribbean will help to produce fresh NE gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region tonight and tomorrow. Convection occurring near the Galapagos will continue through Fri night. Elsewhere, by Thu night through the weekend, quiescent conditions will prevail over the Central American and equatorial waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from a 1026 mb high near 34N136W to 30N125W to 20N110W to 15N108W. The weak pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing only moderate to locally fresh NE trades over forecast waters. Seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. No additional deep convection is occurring away from the surface trough/ITCZ. For the forecast, little change is expected in the winds during the next several days. Large NW swell will impact waters north of 27N and east of 125W Thu night through Fri night. Otherwise, little change in the seas are also expected through the weekend. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC160740_C_KWBC_20260416074126_9109880-1298-TWDEP.txt ****0000003848**** AXPZ20 KNHC 160740 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Apr 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from coastal Colombia at 07N77W to 05N79W to 08N85W to 05N119W. The ITCZ extends from 05N119W to beyond 06N140W. Southern hemispheric surface trough extends from 03S86W to 01S103W. Southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 03S118W to 01S139W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring from 03N-07W to 110W-120W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05S-05N between 87W-110W. Isolated moderate convection extends from 05N-11N between 124W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends from 30N125W to 20N110W to 13N107W. Winds on the east side of the ridge are NW moderate to fresh over the Pacific waters NW of Cape Corrientes and over the S Gulf of California. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-6 ft in NW swell NW of Cape Corrientes, 4-5 ft in S swell SE of Cape Corrientes, 2-4 ft over the S Gulf of California, and 0-2 ft over the N Gulf of California. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, quiescent conditions will prevail across the Mexican offshores today. Developing low pressure over the SW United States will induce fresh SW winds over the N Gulf of California tonight before diminishing on Fri. Elsewhere, large NW swell will impact the Pacific waters west of Baja California Norte tonight through Fri night. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the Gulf of America should cause a fresh to strong Tehuanteper gap wind event Sun night and Mon. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh E winds and seas of 4-5 ft are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region this evening. Elsewhere, winds across the forecast waters are moderate or weaker this evening with seas of 4-7 ft in S swell. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05S-05N between 87W-110W including water near the Galapagos. For the forecast, high pressure over the W Caribbean will help to produce fresh NE gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region today. Convection occurring near the Galapagos will continue through Fri night. Elsewhere, by tonight through early next week, quiescent conditions will prevail over the Central American and equatorial waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends from 30N125W to 20N110W to 13N107W. The weak pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing only moderate to locally fresh NE trades over forecast waters. Seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. No additional deep convection is occurring away from the surface trough/ITCZ. For the forecast, little change is expected in the winds during the next several days. Large NW swell will impact waters north of 27N and east of 125W Thu night through Fri night. Otherwise, little change in the seas are also expected through the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach our NW corner at 30N140W on Sun. The frontal boundary should move eastward while gradually weakening, accompanied by large N swell. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC161603_C_KWBC_20260416160357_38666572-1316-TWDEP.txt ****0000004622**** AXPZ20 KNHC 161603 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Apr 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia at 07N78W to 06N94W to 05N116W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N133W and to beyond the area at 05N140W. A southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 03S86W to 02S101W to 02S112W to 03S121W to 02S130W to 03S140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the southern hemispheric ITCZ between 86W-90W and from 03S to the Equator between 86W-91W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends from 30N129W to 21N115W and to 17N110W. The associated gradient is allowing for northwest winds at mostly moderate speeds to exist over the offshore waters of Baja California and for moderate to fresh winds to be over the offshore waters of Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere, winds are generally northwest to north at moderate speeds. Overnight satellite altimeter data indicates seas of 4 to 6 ft in northwest swell offshore the Baja California peninsula and of the state of Jalisco. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell elsewhere offshore Mexico. In the Gulf of California, seas are 2 to 3 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 4 ft in the southern part and for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell at the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, rather quiet conditions will remain over the Mexican offshores today. Developing low pressure over the southwestern United States will bring fresh southwest winds to the northern Gulf of California tonight before diminishing on Fri. Elsewhere, large NW swell will impact the Pacific waters west of Baja California Norte tonight through Fri night. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the Gulf of America is expected to induce a fresh to strong Tehuanteper gap wind event Sun night and Mon. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds along with seas of 5 to 6 ft are in the Gulf of Papagayo region per overnight scatterometer satellite data and latest satellite altimeter data. Elsewhere, winds across the regional waters are mostly at gentle speeds along with seas of 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. Satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the waters from 06S to 01N between 85W and 93W, including the waters near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Caribbean will help to produce fresh northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region today. Convection occurring near the Galapagos Islands should last into Sat. Elsewhere, beginning tonight and into early next week, expect for rather tranquil conditions to remain over the Central American and equatorial waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb is analyzed north of the area at 33N137W, with a ridge extending to 27N125W, to 21N115W and to near 17N110W. High pressure covers the area north of about 16N and west of 115W. A pretty weak pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated to the ITCZ is allowing for generally moderate to locally fresh northeast trades over forecast waters. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft in north swell merging with southeast swell. No additional deep convection is occurring away from the trough/ITCZ. For the forecast, little change is expected in the winds during the next several days. Large long-period northwest swell is expected to impact the waters north of 27N and east of 125W starting Thu night and through Fri night. Otherwise, little change in the seas are also expected through the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the far northwest forecast waters on Sun. This front should translate eastward while gradually weakening. A set of large northwest to north swell will follow in behind the front. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC161617CCA_C_KWBC_20260416161831_9109880-1321-TWDEP.txt ****0000004705**** AXPZ20 KNHC 161617 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Apr 16 2026 Corrected forecast for Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia at 07N78W to 06N94W to 05N116W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N133W and to beyond the area at 05N140W. A southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 03S86W to 02S101W to 02S112W to 03S121W to 02S130W to 03S140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the southern hemispheric ITCZ between 86W-90W and from 03S to the Equator between 86W-91W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected A high pressure ridge extends from 30N129W to 21N115W and to 17N110W. The associated gradient is allowing for northwest winds at mostly moderate speeds to exist over the offshore waters of Baja California and for moderate to fresh winds to be over the offshore waters of Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere, winds are generally northwest to north at moderate speeds. Overnight satellite altimeter data indicates seas of 4 to 6 ft in northwest swell offshore the Baja California peninsula and of the state of Jalisco. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell elsewhere offshore Mexico. In the Gulf of California, seas are 2 to 3 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 4 ft in the southern part and for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell at the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, rather quiet conditions will remain over the Mexican offshores today. Developing low pressure over the southwestern United States will bring fresh southwest winds to the northern Gulf of California tonight before diminishing on Fri. Elsewhere, large NW swell will impact the Pacific waters west of Baja California Norte tonight through Fri night. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the Gulf of America is expected to induce a fresh to strong Tehuantepec gap wind event Sun night and Mon. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds along with seas of 5 to 6 ft are in the Gulf of Papagayo region per overnight scatterometer satellite data and latest satellite altimeter data. Elsewhere, winds across the regional waters are mostly at gentle speeds along with seas of 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. Satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the waters from 06S to 01N between 85W and 93W, including the waters near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Caribbean will help to produce fresh northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region today. Convection occurring near the Galapagos Islands should last into Sat. Elsewhere, beginning tonight and into early next week, expect for rather tranquil conditions to remain over the Central American and equatorial waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb is analyzed north of the area at 33N137W, with a ridge extending to 27N125W, to 21N115W and to near 17N110W. High pressure covers the area north of about 16N and west of 115W. A pretty weak pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated to the ITCZ is allowing for generally moderate to locally fresh northeast trades over forecast waters. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft in north swell merging with southeast swell. No additional deep convection is occurring away from the trough/ITCZ. For the forecast, little change is expected in the winds during the next several days. Large long-period northwest swell is expected to impact the waters north of 27N and east of 125W starting Thu night and through Fri night. Otherwise, little change in the seas are also expected through the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the far northwest forecast waters on Sun. This front should translate eastward while gradually weakening. A set of large northwest to north swell will follow in behind the front. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################