--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-01-18 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC180316_C_KWBC_20260118031658_12124482-4097-TWDEP.txt ****0000004532**** AXPZ20 KNHC 180316 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jan 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building across E Mexico in the wake of a Gulf-of-America-traversing cold front is initiating gale-force N gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening. This gale will be prolonged - likely lasting through Tue night - with a peak of severe gale tomorrow afternoon and evening. Peak seas of around 17 ft are possible Sun night into Mon. Seas will quickly build tonight and be very rough by Sun. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend should be aware of these gale-force gap winds and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N83W to 06N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06N90W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate conveciton is noted from 08N to 18N between 105W and 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Tehuantepec region. Refer to the Special Features section above for details. Outside of the Tehuantepec area where the initial plume of strong to near-gale force gap winds are starting, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist across the Mexican offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near Socorro Island, associated with a trough in the area. For the forecast, aside from the Tehuantepec gale, gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the middle part of next week. Looking ahead, a new Tehuantepecer gap wind event may commence Thu night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 5 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3 to 5 ft in mainly NW swell. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Papagayo region through at least mid next week. This high pressure will also force moderate to fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama from Mon night into Wed night. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker over forecast waters through mid next week. Large to very large NW to N swell generated by gales over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the waters offshore Guatemala and El Salvador Sun through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A few showers and thunderstorms are active along cold front extending from 30N137W to 20N140W. Fresh SE to S winds are ongoing within 90 nm ahead of the front, north of 28N. Large NW swell of 8 to 11 ft accompanies the front. Fresh E to SE winds and seas to 7 ft are evident south of Socorro Island near a trough along 115W from 10N to 20N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active near this trough, specifically from 08N to 18N between 105W and 115W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined seas, primarily in NW swell, dominate elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front near 137W will not progress much farther east, as the strong SE winds will lift north of our area and the front dissipates by Sun. Large NW swell will continue but not reach equatorward of 12N or eastward of 130W before subsiding early next week. The Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind events will be strong enough to bring fresh to strong NE to E winds into the region from Sun into Tue night along with seas of 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker and seas less than 8 ft for the next several days. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################