--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-05-11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC110306_C_KWBC_20260511030659_38666572-3007-TWDEP.txt ****0000006174**** AXPZ20 KNHC 110306 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon May 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N74.5W to 05.5N81W to 11N102W to 05N118W to 07N118W to 08N127W to 06N137W to 06.5N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 08.5N E of 89W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03S to 05N between 90W and 106W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 122W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW to N winds continue across the waters of Baja California as a broad ridge persists west of the area. Locally fresh winds Seas with these winds are mostly 5 to 6 ft in NW swell, except 7 to 8 ft across the waters off of Baja Norte. Light to gentle northerly winds prevail from Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas southward beyond the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo Corrientes to near 17N, where seas are 5 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell. Winds inside the Gulf of California are generally at gentle speeds with seas 1 to 2 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell in the southern portion. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere to the east and southeast to Tehuantepec. Seas are 5 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over the offshore waters between 101W and a trough extending from 17.5N104W to 12.5N107W, but are within 30 nm of the coast of Michoacan. Areal coverage and intensity has diminished in the past several hours. Recent satellite altimeter data shows locally rough seas to 8 ft across the far outer waters, likely due to strong gusty winds from this persistent area of convection. For the forecast, the broad ridge west of the area will support moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds off Baja California Norte through late this evening. Mostly moderate seas in NW swell will continue over these waters through the period, except for rough seas to 8 ft over the waters north through northwest of Isla Guadalupe tonight. The high pressure will weaken and begin to drift northward Mon through the middle part of the week, allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters. A new area of high pressure will build southeastward across the region Wed night through Fri night, leading to mostly fresh northwest to north winds across the Baja waters. Fresh to strong gap winds will return to Tehuantepec Mon night, then become strong to near gale-force winds Tue through Thu night as the gradient tightens over southeastern Mexico in the wake of cold front. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Afternoon satellite scatterometer data indicated mostly light to gentle winds over the offshore waters of Central America and southward to Ecuador, with fresh to strong NE gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 89W. SE winds in the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands have likely increased to moderate this evening. Gentle to locally moderate northerly winds prevail across and downwind of the Gulf of Panama to 05N. Combined seas over these waters are generally 5 to 7 ft in SW swell, except for higher seas of 7 to 8 ft south of the equator and east of about 100W to near the coast of Peru as noted in recent satellite altimeter data. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring across the offshore waters from 02N to 08.5N and E of 89W, and extends to near the coast of SW Panama and southern Colombia. For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly gap winds will pulse to mostly fresh to strong speeds at night across the Papagayo region through Thu, then at fresh speeds Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the waters E of 85W through Tue night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1023 mb is centered north of the area near 31N133W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is generally maintaining moderate to fresh trades from 08N to 25N west of 124W, and from 09N to 18N between 117W and 124W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed NW and E swell are over this area south of 21N and west of about 122W. Gentle to moderate winds along with seas of about 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere north of about 11N per recent satellite altimeter data, and a couple of SoFar Ocean Spotter buoy reports from the northwest portion of the area. Convection over this area is associated to the monsoon trough and ITCZ as described above under the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region tonight, then begin to weaken and drift northward Mon through Tue. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, north of the ITCZ to about 22N and west of 120W Sun through early next week, with seas of 7 to 8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the upcoming week. Rough seas to 8 ft in southerly swell will begin to impact a portion of the far south-central waters and the waters just south of the Galapagos Islands beginning tonight, spreading eastward in coverage into Mon before subsiding Tue into Wed. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC110844_C_KWBC_20260511084502_38666572-3021-TWDEP.txt ****0000006137**** AXPZ20 KNHC 110844 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon May 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N74.5W to 06N79W to 09N85W to 06N92W to 09.5N105W to 05.5N121W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 08.5N E of 96W, and from 03N to 10N between 120W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03S to 17.5N between 98W and 109W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate NW to N winds continue across the waters of Baja California as a broad ridge persists west of the area. Seas with these winds are mostly 5 to 6 ft in NW swell, except 7 ft across the waters NW of Isla Guadalupe. Light to gentle northerly winds prevail from Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas southward beyond the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo Corrientes to near 17N, where seas are 5 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell. Winds inside the Gulf of California have shifted W to SW across much of the basin at 10 kt or less, with a few areas of moderate westerly gap winds. Seas 1 to 2 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in SW swell in the southern portions. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere to the east and southeast to Tehuantepec. Seas are 5 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over the offshore waters between 101W and a trough extending from 17N104W to 11N107W, but are within 60 nm of the coast of from Colima to western Guerrero. Recent satellite altimeter data showed locally rough seas to 8 ft across the far outer waters, likely due to strong gusty winds from this persistent area of convection. For the forecast, a broad ridge west of the area has begun to weaken across the local area tonight, and will weaken slightly Mon through Wed morning as weak low pressure moves into Southern California. Moderate NW swell will gradually subside across the Baja waters through Wed. A new area of high pressure will build southeastward across the region Wed night through Fri night, leading to mostly fresh NW to N winds and building seas across the Baja waters. Fresh to strong gap winds will return to Tehuantepec Mon night, then become strong to near gale-force winds Tue through Thu night as the pressure gradient tightens over southeastern Mexico in the wake of cold front. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Satellite scatterometer data around midnight indicated mostly light to gentle winds over the offshore waters of Central America and southward to Ecuador, with fresh NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 88W. Winds have likely increased fresh to strong downwind of Papagayo in recent hours. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail across and downwind of the Gulf of Panama to 06N. Combined seas over these waters are generally 5 to 7 ft in SW swell, except for higher seas to 8 ft downstream of Papagayo. SW swell dominating area seas in recent days has begun to subside, with recent satellite altimeter data showing seas 6 to 7 ft south of the equator and east of about 100W to near the coast of Peru. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring across the offshore waters from 01.5N to 08.5N and E of 90W, and extends to near the coast of SE Costa Rica, eastern Panama and southern Colombia. For the forecast, fresh easterly gap winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds at night across the Papagayo region through early Thu, then at fresh speeds Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the waters E of 85W through Tue night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1023 mb is centered north of the area near 32N131W and extends a broad but weakening ridge south and southeastward to near 110W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is generally maintaining moderate to fresh trades from 07N to 24N west of 126W, and from 10N to 20N between 115W and 126W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed NW and E swell are over this area south of 21N and west of about 120W. Gentle to moderate winds with seas of about 5 to 6 ft are elsewhere north of about 11N per recent satellite altimeter data, and a couple of SoFar Ocean Spotter buoy reports from the northwest portion of the area. Convection over this area is associated with the monsoon trough and ITCZ as described above under the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. For the forecast, the ridge will begin to weaken as the high center drifts northward today through Tue, ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, north of the ITCZ to about 22N and west of 120W Mon through Tue, with seas of 6 to 8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the upcoming week. New high pressure will begin to build across the region from the NW early Wed through Fri to produce fresh trade winds S of 20N and W of 125W, with seas building 8 to 9 ft. Rough seas to 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the far southwestern waters S of 02N to 120W, and will gradually spread eastward in coverage to near 100W Mon and Mon night before subsiding Tue into Wed. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC111540_C_KWBC_20260511154101_32440682-3-TWDEP.txt ****0000005383**** AXPZ20 KNHC 111540 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon May 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 07N95W to 09N108W to 04.5N116W to 07N129W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 92W, from 09N to 16N between 101W and 106W, and from 03N to 09.5N between 131W and 140W. Similar convection is noted in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure well west- northwest of the area near 31N135W to offshore SW Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed from near the SW Arizona/California border to across the Gulf of California. This pattern supports moderate N-NE winds offshore Baja California Sur, and Gentle NW-N winds offshore Baja California Norte. Seas offshore Baja California area mainly 5-6 ft in mixed long period SW and NW swells. Light and variable winds with 1-3 ft seas prevail across the Gulf of California. Moderate northerly winds are in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec where scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also noted. Mainly light and variable winds with 5-6 ft seas dominated by SW swell cover the remainder of the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over the offshore waters S of 16N and between 101W and 106W due to an active mid to upper level trough. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight and then pulsing through early Thu, near gale-force at times during the late night and early morning hours, as the pressure gradient tightens over southeastern Mexico in the wake of cold front N of the area. Seas will build to rough at times with these winds. Fresh to strong SW winds may very briefly develop in the northern Gulf of California Tue night as a cold front moves by mainly to the N. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters, increasing to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California by the end of the week as ridging west of the peninsula strengthens. Mainly 5-7 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swells will dominate the offshore waters, potentially building to 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte by the end of the week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds are offshore Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Papagayo due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are 6-8 ft with these winds. Moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas in S-SW dominate the remainder of the offshore waters of Central and northern South America. Active convection is present across the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica as described above. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse offshore Gulf of Papagayo through the week, mainly at night into the early morning hours, building seas locally to rough at times. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the waters E of 85W through at least Tue night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure near 31N135W to offshore SW Mexico, dominating the waters N of 10N and N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail both N and S of the monsoon trough across the open waters, except light to gentle E of 110W where the pressure gradient is slightly more relaxed. Seas are 6-8 ft from roughly 07N to 14N to the W of 120W in mixed NE to E and NW swells. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in mixed long period SW and NW swells across the remainder of the open waters, except 7-9 ft in S-SW swell S of the Equator and W of 105W. For the forecast, the ridge will begin to weaken as the high center drifts northward today through Tue, ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, north of the ITCZ to about 22N and west of 120W through Tue, with seas of 6-8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the week. New high pressure will begin to build across the region from the NW early Wed through Fri to produce fresh trade winds S of 20N and W of 125W, with seas building 8-9 ft. Rough seas to 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the far southwestern waters S of 02N to 120W, and will gradually spread eastward in coverage to near 100W through tonight before subsiding Tue into Wed. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC112035_C_KWBC_20260511203641_9109880-3032-TWDEP.txt ****0000005696**** AXPZ20 KNHC 112035 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon May 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 06N94W to 09N108W to 04N120W to 08N133W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 92.5W, from 08N to 17N between 100W and 107W, and from 03N to 08N between 136W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure well west- northwest of the area near 31N135W to offshore SW Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed from near the SW Arizona/California border to across the Gulf of California. This pattern supports moderate N-NE winds offshore Baja California Sur, and Gentle NW-N winds offshore Baja California Norte. Seas offshore Baja California area mainly 5-6 ft in mixed long period SW and NW swells. Light and variable winds with 1-3 ft seas prevail across the Gulf of California. Moderate northerly winds are in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly light to gentle variable winds with 5-6 ft seas dominated by SW swell cover the remainder of the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over the offshore waters S of 18N and between 100W and 106W due to an active mid to upper level trough. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight and then pulsing through early Thu, near gale-force at times during the late night and early morning hours, as the pressure gradient tightens over southeastern Mexico in the wake of cold front N of the area. Seas will build to rough at times with these winds. Fresh to strong SW winds may very briefly develop in the northern Gulf of California Tue night as a trough develops. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters, increasing to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California by the end of the week as ridging west of the peninsula strengthens. Winds may increase to fresh to strong well offshore Baja California Norte this weekend. Mainly 5-7 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swells will dominate the offshore waters, potentially building to 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte by the end of the week, then to 8-11 ft Sat. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are offshore southern Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Papagayo due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Seas are 6-8 ft with these winds. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama downwind to near the Azuero Peninsula. Light to gentle winds and 4-6 ft seas in S-SW dominate the remainder of the offshore waters of Central and northern South America. Active convection is present across the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica as described above. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E winds will pulse offshore Gulf of Papagayo through at least the remainder of the week, mainly at night into the early morning hours, building seas locally to rough at times. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the waters south of 09N through at least Tue night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure near 31N135W to offshore SW Mexico, dominating the waters N of 10N and N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail N of the monsoon trough and west of 110W. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere, including S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 6-8 ft from roughly 06N to 11N to the W of 125W in mixed swells. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in mixed long period SW and NW swells across the remainder of the open waters, except 7-9 ft in S-SW swell S of the Equator and W of 100W. For the forecast, the ridge will begin to weaken as the high center drifts northward today through Tue, ahead of an approaching weak cold front. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, N of the ITCZ to about 22N and W of 120W through Tue, with seas of 6-8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the week. New high pressure will begin to build across the region from the NW early Wed through Fri to produce fresh trade winds S of 20N and W of 125W, with seas building 7-10 ft. Winds may strengthen slightly to fresh to strong across the N-central waters by the weekend with seas building there as a result. Rough seas to around 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the far southwestern waters S of the Equator to 120W, and will gradually spread eastward in coverage to near 100W through tonight. Seas of around 8 ft may persist across this same area through the end of the week and into the weekend. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################