--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-07-21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC210329_C_KWBC_20260721033005_9109880-8814-TWDEP.txt ****0000006425**** AXPZ20 KNHC 210329 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jul 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fausto: Fausto is centered near 14.7N 117.3W at 21/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 21 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is occurring from 13.5N-15.5N between 116W-118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 19N between 107W and 122W. Satellite imagery suggests that the core of Fausto is becoming better organized, and has now reached hurricane intensity. Fausto is forecast to continue toward the northwest for the next few days, with a decrease in forward speed. A turn back to the west- northwest is expected on Wednesday. Steady to rapid as Fausto moves into a very favorable environment. Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula on early Wednesday, and persist for a couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning: Post-tropical cyclone Elida is centered near 29.5N127.5W with a central pressure of 1003 mb, and maximum winds around 35 kt. Afternoon satellite scatterometer data showed winds 30-40 kt across the northern semicircle of the low, and is assumed to have diminished slightly since. A pair of altimeter passes around 1700 UTC shows a large swath of 12 ft seas from 24N-29 between 126W-130W and peak seas around 20 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring now from 31N-35N between 127W-130W. The system should continue moving steadily toward the north- northwest while gradually diminishing. Peak winds are anticipated to drop below gale-force later tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to 10N80W to 06.5N93W to 10N108W, where it breaks for Tropical Storm Fausto, then resumes near 12N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N east of 93W, from 06N to 10N between 103W and 109W, and from 05N to 10N between 131W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 650 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Winds are SE fresh to strong, seas 7-10 ft, and scattered moderate convection is occurring in the offshore zone of the Revillagigedo Islands due to the periphery of Tropical Storm Fausto. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft in S-SW swell over the remainder of the Pacific offshore waters and 2-4 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, NW winds should freshen with isolated strong areas off Baja California Norte on Wed and Thu. Moderate to large SW swell will impact the Mexican offshore waters W of Cabo Corrientes Tue night through Thu. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west- northwestward away from the forecast waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are NE fresh to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-5 ft in S swell. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 03N to 10 N east of 93W. For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds will persist across the Papagayo region through Fri. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions are expected for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 650 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on a Gale Warning for Post- tropical Cyclone Elida, centered about 600 NM miles west- southwest of the coastal border of California and Mexico. Fausto and the remnants of Elida dominate conditions over the High Seas forecast waters this evening. Away from these two systems, the only winds that are fresh are south of the equator west of 100W. These SE winds are accompanied by 8-9 ft seas. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 6-7 ft in mixed seas. For the forecast, newly upgraded Hurricane Fausto is near 14.7N 117.3W 988 MB at 0300 moving NW AT 8 KT. Maximum sustained winds are 65 KT with gusts to 80 KT. Fausto is expected to continue to strengthen for the next 48 to 72 hours as it moves toward the NW. Fausto is expected to reach near 15.5N 118.4W Tue morning, move to 16.2N 119.9W Tue afternoon, reach 16.7N 121.4W Wed morning, 17.1N 123.2W Wed afternoon, 17.5N 125.4W Thu morning, and 17.9N 127.9W Thu afternoon. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC211003_C_KWBC_20260721100409_9109880-8837-TWDEP.txt ****0000006910**** AXPZ20 KNHC 211003 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jul 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0840 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fausto: Fausto is centered near 15.4N 118.0W at 21/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is occurring from 12N-16N between 116W and 121W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 09.5N to 17.5N between 113W and 123W. Satellite imagery suggests that the core of Fausto continues to become better organized. Fausto is forecast to continue toward the northwest today, then is expected to veer more west- northwest and gradually accelerate on Wednesday and Thursday. Steady to rapid intensification is expected through Thursday as Fausto moves into a very favorable environment. Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southwestern Mexico by early Wednesday, and persist for a couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning: Post-tropical cyclone Elida is centered near 31N127.5W with a central pressure of 1001 mb. Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed winds near 35 kt across the northwestern quadrant of the low, and N of 30N, with peak winds elsewhere around 30 kt. Recent satellite altimeter data also showed seas at 12 to 16 ft to the N of 29N in the vicinity of the low. Since gale-force winds have lifted north of 30N, the gale warning has been allowed to expire. The system should continue moving steadily toward the north- northwest while gradually diminishing. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N73W to 08.5N83W to 05N95W to 10N113W, where it breaks for Hurricane Fausto, then resumes near 13.5N124W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N east of 98W and from 03.5N to 10N between 133W and 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11.5N between 102W and 111W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 645 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fresh to strong SE winds with seas of 9 to 15 ft, and scattered moderate convection is occurring in the offshore zone of the Revillagigedo Islands as Fausto passes the islands to the SW. Elsewhere, a very weak and narrow ridge extends across the offshore waters between Fausto and Mexico, yielding moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-6 ft in S-SW swell over the remainder of the Pacific offshore waters. Inside the Gulf of California, recent satellite altimeter data showed gentle to moderate S to SW winds, with a few areas of locally fresh westerly gap winds. Seas are estimated at 2-4 ft except to 5 ft across the entrance. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends just from coastal Chiapas to offshore central Oaxaca. For the forecast, high pressure will begin to build in across the Baja offshore waters Wed and Thu to produce moderate to fresh NW winds with isolated areas of strong winds during the afternoon and evening hours. Moderate to large SW swell will impact the Mexican offshore waters W of Cabo Corrientes Tue night through Thu. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west- northwestward away from the forecast waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong easterly winds prevail across the Papagayo region and extend offshore to 90W and northward into the NW Nicaragua waters. Seas are 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-5 ft in S swell. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 04N to 10N east of 90W. For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds will persist across the Papagayo region through Fri morning before diminishing over the weekend. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions are expected through Sunday. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 650 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fausto and the remnants of Elida dominate conditions over the High Seas forecast waters tonight. Away from these two systems, the only winds that are fresh are south of the equator west of 110W, and are accompanied by 8-9 ft seas. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 5-8 ft in mixed seas. For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto is near 15.4N 118.0W 985 MB at 0900 moving NW AT 9 KT. Maximum sustained winds are 70 KT with gusts to 85 KT. Fausto is expected to continue to strengthen for the next 48 to 72 hours as it moves toward the NW through Tue night then more west-northwestward Wed and Thu. Fausto is expected to reach near 16.1N 119.2 midday Tue, move to 16.6N 120.7W midnight Tue, reach 17.1N 122.2W midday Wed, near 17.4N 124.2W midnight Wed, 17.8N 126.6W midday Thu, 18.1N 129.4W midnight Thu, and 19.1N 134.7W midnight Fri. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################