--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2025-11-28 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC280217_C_KWBC_20251128021809_29294990-1032-TWDEP.txt ****0000004575**** AXPZ20 KNHC 280217 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Nov 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure building in the wake of the front and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting strong to gale force gap winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A plume of fresh to strong N to NE gap winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will expand downstream to 11N99W by Fri morning. Winds will diminish below gale force Fri night. Afterwards, winds and seas will further diminish Sat as the high pressure north of the area shifts eastward and the pressure gradient loosens. Please refer to the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N94W to 09N111W to 09N125W. The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 108W and 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on an upcoming Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from conditions in the Gulf of Tehuantepec discussed above, moderate NW winds prevail over the Gulf of California, and extending southward from the entrance of the Gulf to near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 2-3 in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure building north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri night, resulting in rough to very seas. Fresh to strong winds will then persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Sat night before diminishing. A surface trough may impact the waters near the Revillagigedo Islands this weekend, with fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas possible this weekend into Mon. No significant swell events are forecast through the upcoming weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are over the Papagayo region, with moderate winds extending downstream to near 90W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle moderate winds are found south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in mixed SW and NW swells, reaching 7 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will prevail in the Papagayo region through Sun. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast elsewhere through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. While no significant swells are forecast, seas will build slightly in the Papagayo region due to the fresh to strong winds, and offshore Guatemala to locally rough through Fri due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between ridging north of 20N and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate winds north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 20N and west of 110W. The trade winds are contributing to 7-9 ft combined seas over these waters, assisted by a component of longer- period NW swell. Moderate or weaker breezes and moderate seas in a mix of swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh trade winds and 7-9 ft seas in the trade wind belt will gradually decrease through Fri as the high pressure north of the area weakens. A new set of NW swell with rough seas will arrive Fri and into weekend north of 25N with seas to 10 ft. Another large set of NW swell may arrive to the NW waters by the end of the weekend and into early next week. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################