--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-05-03 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC030429_C_KWBC_20260503043018_47448518-2491-TWDEP.txt ****0000005307**** AXPZ20 KNHC 030429 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A late-season Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected from early Sun morning through Sun night, as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of America. These gap winds will reach near-gale to gale-force Sun morning through late Sun night, along with seas peaking at 9 to 11 ft. As the ridge shifts eastward on Mon, both winds and seas should subside quickly and allow marine conditions to rapidly improve. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more information. Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may occur as early as September, and as late as May. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends westward from near the coastal border of Panama and Colombia to 09N87W to 08N95W. An ITCZ continues from 08N95W to 06N120W to beyond 07N140W. A large area of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection are occurring from 03N to the coast of Costa Rica and Panama between the coast of Colombia and 92W, including the Gulf of Panama. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please read the Special Features section above for details. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas. In the Gulf of California, mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted. Elsewhere along the Mexican forecast waters, light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed swells prevail. For the forecast, aside from the gale conditions in the Tehunatepec region, fresh S to SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will pulse to between strong and near-gale force Sun night and Mon night. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds seas are noted south of the equatorial trough while W to NW winds are to the north of it. Seas are in general 3 to 5 ft in primarily SW swell. Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely in a large area of showers and thunderstorms now affecting the coastal waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica, including the Gulf of Panama. These hazardous conditions are expected to continue on Sunday. For the forecast, abundant tropical moisture near a monsoon trough will continue to support sporadic heavy showers and strong thunderstorms across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama, through Mon night. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong easterly winds are expected in the Papagayo region Mon night, and again Tue night as high pressure builds north of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, in primarily southerly swell, are expected through midweek next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Convergent surface winds east of a surface trough near 145W are causing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 08N to 15N and west of 132W. A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough that is analyzed from 20N135W to 15N138W supports an area of fresh to strong N to NE winds W of the trough axis to beyond 140W. Recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds are noted, with locally fresh winds across the trade wind zone. South of the ITCZ, mainly light to gentle winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed swells prevail. A former cold front, in the form of a surface trough, will sink south of 31N tonight through Sun while weakening. Moderate to fresh trade winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds by Sun night W of 130W. As a result, rough seas will persist across that area through at least late Mon. Pulses of NW swell will continue to combine with NE wind waves to maintain moderate seas across the remainder of forecast waters W of 110W. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC031007_C_KWBC_20260503100720_47448518-2513-TWDEP.txt ****0000005420**** AXPZ20 KNHC 031007 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun May 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A late-season Tehuantepec gap wind event will last from this morning through early Mon morning, as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a frontal boundary across the Bay of Campeche. These gap winds will reach near-gale to gale-force later this morning through about midnight tonight, along with seas peaking at 10 to 12 ft. As the ridge shifts eastward on Mon, both winds and seas should subside quickly and allow marine conditions to rapidly improve. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more information. Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may occur as early as September, and as late as May. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends westward from northwestern Colombia through a 1008 mb low over central Panama to 07N94W. An ITCZ continues from 07N94W to 06N120W to beyond 07N140W. Widespread numerous moderate to isolated strong convection are occurring near the monsoon trough from 03N to the coast of Costa Rica and Panama between the coast of Colombia and 93W, including the Gulf of Panama. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for an ongoing Gale Warning. A broad surface ridge near 124W continues to dominate waters west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands, supporting gentle with locally moderate NW to N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California, mainly light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed swells prevail for the waters near central and southern Mexico. For the forecast, aside from the gale conditions in the Tehunatepec region, fresh S to SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will pulse to between strong and near-gale force tonight and Mon night. Fresh to strong NW winds are also expected near Cabo San Lucas Mon night. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section above for more detail on widespread convection, capable of producing heavy showers and dangerous lightning with locally gusty winds and rough seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present near the Papagayo region. Gentle NW to NE winds with 3 to 4 ft seas are noted in the waters off Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle S to SW to W winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in moderate S swell prevail for the remaining offshore waters. For the forecast, abundant tropical moisture near a monsoon trough will continue to support sporadic heavy showers and strong thunderstorms across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama through Mon night. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong easterly winds are expected in the Papagayo region Mon night, and again Tue night as high pressure builds north of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, in primarily southerly swell are anticipated through midweek next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Convergent surface winds east of a robust surface trough near 146W are causing scattered moderate convection from 07N to 13N and west of 125W. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from the northeastern Pacific across 30N140E to near the Revillagigedo Islands. It is promoting gentle to moderate NW to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate NW swell, north of 18N and west of 115W/120W, and also north of the ITCZ between 100W and 120W. Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Mainly gentle with locally moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mix swells prevail south of the ITCZ. Another high pressure building southeastward from north of the Hawaiian Islands is going to tighten gradient north of the ITCZ. In response, trade winds north of the ITCZ to 18N and west of 130W are going to increase to between fresh and strong Mon through Tue, also sustaining the rough seas. A combination of NW and southerly swells should support moderate seas for the remaining waters through most of the coming week. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################