--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-05-21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC210356_C_KWBC_20260521035650_49676782-3641-TWDEP.txt ****0000004367**** AXPZ20 KNHC 210356 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu May 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 96W from off the Gulf of Tehuantepec southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 91W and 101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N94W. The ITCZ extends from 07N100W to 08N116W and from 07N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is active from 03N to 09N east of 90W, including the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia, and from 05N to 13N between 108W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 101W and 108W and from 06N to 10N W of 133W ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A modest surface ridge near 128W is supporting gentle to locally moderate NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas are present in the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. For the forecast, a modest surface ridge near 125W will support gentle to locally moderate NW winds with moderate seas west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands through the weekend. Locally fresh winds during the late afternoon and evening hours are likely near the coast of Cabo San Lucas through this weekend, and off Cabo Corrientes this weekend. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas exist in the Papagayo region waters. Easterly fresh E winds with seas at 5 to 6 ft persist across the southern waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted for the remaining offshore waters in central America. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds with seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells dominate waters off Colombia and Ecuador, and near the Galapagos Islands. Refer to the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the region. For the forecast, gap winds will pulse to strong tonight, then fresh Thu night, in the Papagayo region. Fresh to strong winds will return Sun night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak 1014 mb low near 26N119W is triggering patchy showers from 23N to 25N between 118W and 124W. Farther south, another 1009 mb low and related surface trough is generating scattered moderate convection from 04N to 12N between 117W and 124W. Refer to the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section for additional convection in the East Pacific Basin. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1035 mb high near 37N144W across 30N140W to just southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature is maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 118W. Gentle to moderate N to NE to E winds with 6 to 8 ft in mixed NW and S swells exist north of the ITCZ east of 118W. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to subside to between gentle to moderate, and 5 to 6 ft by this weekend. Winds south of the ITCZ will also becoming gentle by Fri with seas remaining at 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC210758_C_KWBC_20260521075958_47448518-3757-TWDEP.txt ****0000003820**** AXPZ20 KNHC 210758 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu May 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 97W from offshore Oaxaca southward is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 92W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N114W. The ITCZ extends from 07N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 03N to 09N E of 92W, including the offshore waters of Panama and Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 108W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 102W and 108W and from 06N to 09N W of 135W ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient prevails over the region, leading to mainly light to gentle winds. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are impacting waters near Cabo San Lucas as modest ridging builds in from the N Pacific. Seas are moderate in the offshore waters, and slight in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will dominate through late week, leading to moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds. By late weekend and early next week, ridging building SW toward the region will lead to moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja California, along with a slight increase in seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are in the Papagayo region, with moderate N gap winds in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, outside of of the convection that is described in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above, N of the Monsoon Trough, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate, with gentle to moderate mainly southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas to the south. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region. otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak low pressure that had been W of Baja California has devolved into a surface trough that extends from 26N119W to 23N123W. Shower activity that had been in the vicinity has dissipated. Farther south, a 1008 mb low pressure is near the monsoon trough around 10N120W. Convection near this low is described in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1035 mb high near 37N144W across 30N140W. This feature is maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate N to NE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and S swells exist north of the ITCZ east of 125W. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to subside to between gentle to moderate, and 5 to 6 ft, respectively, by this weekend. Little change is expected S of the ITCZ into the weekend. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC211530_C_KWBC_20260521153054_49676782-3678-TWDEP.txt ****0000004235**** AXPZ20 KNHC 211530 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu May 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 97.5W from offshore Oaxaca southward is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 15N between 93W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74.5W to 10N84W to 08.5N114W to 05.5N123W to 06N126W. The ITCZ extends from 06N126W to 08N133W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 03N to 09N E of 92W, including the offshore waters of Panama and Colombia. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N E of 97W and from 02.5N to 14N between 97W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N W of 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient prevails over the region, leading to mainly light to gentle winds. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are impacting waters near and offshore of Cabo San Lucas as modest ridging builds in from the N Pacific. Seas are moderate, 4 to 6 ft in NW swell across the offshore waters, except to 7 ft NW of Isla Guadalupe, and slight in the Gulf of California. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving westward across the outer waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, behind a tropical wave. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will dominate through late week, leading to moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds. By late weekend and early next week, ridging building SW toward the region will lead to moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja California, along with a slight increase in seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas continue across the Papagayo region, with moderate N gap winds in the Gulf of Panama extending southward to near 06N. Elsewhere, active convection continues across the waters E of 90W, that is described in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above, N of the Monsoon Trough, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate, with gentle to moderate mainly southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas to the south. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough that had been W of Baja California has dissipated, and associated shower activity has also dissipated. Farther south, a 1008 mb low pressure is near the monsoon trough around 10N115.5W. Convection near this low is described in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1033 mb high near 37N146W across 30N140W then southward to the ITCZ. This feature is maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate N to NE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and S swell continue north of the ITCZ east of 125W. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to subside to between gentle to moderate, and 5 to 6 ft, respectively, by this weekend. Little change is expected S of the ITCZ into the weekend. Active convection is expected to continue near the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 100W and 120W through Sat. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC212128_C_KWBC_20260521212905_47448518-3794-TWDEP.txt ****0000005032**** AXPZ20 KNHC 212128 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu May 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave analyzed near 97.5W at 1200 UTC has become ill defined, with modest cyclonic turning noted in satellite imagery confined to a very small area along the monsoon trough there. The wave has therefore been omitted from the 1800 UTC surface analysis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 05N79W to 09N86W to 10.5N108W to 09.5N119W to 07.5N127W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N127W to 08N134W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 02N to 10N E of 96W, and from 03N to 14.5N between 98W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 10N W of 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient prevails over the region, as a broad surface trough lingers from just offshore of southern California, extending southwestward to the W of Isla Guadalupe to near 24N120W. No shower activity is associated with this feature. However, this trough continues to force the broad high pressure ridge well to the W to extend south of it, and into the waters offshore of Cabo Corrientes. This pattern is producing light to gentle NW winds across most of the Baja waters, and gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the waters south of Cabo San Larazo to the Revillagigedo Islands. Strongest winds are near the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are moderate, 4 to 6 ft, in NW swell across the offshore waters, except to 7 ft NW of Isla Guadalupe, and slight inside the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will dominate through late week, leading to moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds. Look for moderate to fresh westerly gap winds to develop during the evening and nighttime hours across the central and southern Gulf of California through early Sat. By late weekend and early next week, high pressure will build modestly across the region from the W, leading to moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja California, with a slight increase in seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas continued across the Papagayo region early this afternoon, but have begin to diminish slightly. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail across the western half of the Gulf of Panama extending southward to near 05N. Active convection continues across the waters offshore of western Panama and Costa Rica, and has begun to diminish in intensity south of the Gulf of Panama and across the waters of Colombia. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate the area waters to about 03N. South of 03N, moderate southerly winds have developed between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure extending across the western Caribbean and Gulf of America will weaken slightly through the weekend, leading to moderate gap winds pulsing to strong each night across the Papagayo region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail into the weekend. Expect periods of active convection S of 10N and E of 90W through Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1034 mb high near 36N147W across 30N140W then southward to the ITCZ. This pattern is maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 130W. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds with 5 to 8 ft in mixed NW and S swell continue north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, between 130W and 120W. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail. Convection remains active about the ITCZ and monsoon trough between 100W and 120W. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to subside slighlty to between gentle to moderate, with seas of 5 to 6 ft, respectively, by this weekend. Little change is expected S of the ITCZ into the weekend. Active convection is expected to continue near the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 100W and 120W through Sat. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################