--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-05-20 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC200253_C_KWBC_20260520025447_47448518-3670-TWDEP.txt ****0000003956**** AXPZ20 KNHC 200253 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed May 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0240 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 90W, extending north of 04N into El Salvador and Guatemala, and is moving west at 5 kt. It is enhancing convection near the monsoon trough described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 11N87W to 07N89W. The ITCZ extends from 08N93W to 1007 mb low pressure near 06N120W, then continues on to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 07N to 10N between 87W and 91W, from 07N to 11N between 105W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak 1014 mb low pressure area is southwest of Guadalupe Island near 27N120W, along a trough reaching from near San Diego, California to 24N122W. This feature is breaking up the usual subtropical ridge over the area, and therefore allowing only light to gentle breezes off Baja California, except for moderate winds near Cabo San Lucas. Combined seas are 6-8 ft primarily in NW swell off Baja California. Light breezes and slight seas prevail across the Gulf of California. Gentle breeze and 4-6 ft in NW swell persist off southern Mexico. For the forecast, large NW swell will gradually subside across the waters off of Baja California and through the Revillagigedo Islands tonight through Wed, subsiding below 8 ft by Wed evening. Moderate NW swell will then dominate the area waters into the weekend. A ridge extending across the region along roughly 20N will support mostly gentle to moderate NW winds across the area waters, with fresh winds possible near the coast of Cabo San Lucas each afternoon and evening. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds with 5-8 ft seas prevail across the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W this evening. Moderate easterly winds then extend beyond 90W to well south of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate breezes with 3-5 ft seas in SW swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse across the Papagayo region, mainly in the overnight and early morning hours through Thu morning, then diminish through Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends north of 20N southward from a 1034 mb high near 40N141W, and southeastward around a low level trough just southwest of Isla Guadalupe, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of 10N and west of 120W, with 7-10 ft combined seas primarily in NW swell. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5-7 ft are noted elsewhere. Trade wind convergence is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ between 105W and 120W. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to steadily subside from east to west through midweek, becoming gentle to moderate winds with 6 to 7 ft seas by Fri. Winds south of the ITCZ will also becoming gentle by Fri with seas remaining at 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC200948_C_KWBC_20260520094943_49676782-3585-TWDEP.txt ****0000003641**** AXPZ20 KNHC 200948 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed May 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 91W, extending north of 04N into Guatemala, and is moving west at 5 kt. It is enhancing convection near the monsoon trough described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 11N87W to 07N89W. The ITCZ extends from 08N93W to 1007 mb low pressure near 07N120W, then continues on to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 06N to 09N east of 88W, from 06N to 12N between 95W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak 1014 mb low pressure area is southwest of Guadalupe Island near 27N120W, along a trough reaching from near San Diego, California to 24N121W. This feature is breaking up the usual subtropical ridge over the area, and therefore allowing only light to gentle breezes off Baja California, except for moderate winds near Cabo San Lucas. Combined seas are 6-7 ft primarily in NW swell off Baja California. Light breezes and slight seas prevail across the Gulf of California. Gentle breeze and 4-6 ft in NW swell persist off southern Mexico. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to support mostly gentle to moderate NW winds across the area waters, with fresh winds possible near the coast of Cabo San Lucas each afternoon and evening. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds with 5-7 ft seas prevail across the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W this morning. Moderate easterly winds then extend beyond 90W to well south of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate breezes with 3-5 ft seas in SW swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse across the Papagayo region, mainly in the overnight and early morning hours through Thu morning, then diminish through Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends north of 20N southward from a 1035 mb high near 40N141W, and southeastward around a low level trough just southwest of Isla Guadalupe, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of 10N and west of 120W, with 7-10 ft combined seas primarily in NW swell. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5-7 ft are noted elsewhere. Trade wind convergence is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ between 105W and 120W. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to steadily subside from east to west through midweek, becoming gentle to moderate winds with 6 to 7 ft seas by Fri. Winds south of the ITCZ will also becoming gentle by Fri with seas remaining at 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC201628_C_KWBC_20260520162852_47448518-3707-TWDEP.txt ****0000003755**** AXPZ20 KNHC 201628 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed May 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 92W from the Guatemala coast southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous heavy showers and scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring from 10N to 16N between 89W and 94W, including the offshore waters of Chiapas State in Mexico, and Guatemala and El Salvador. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 11N87W to 07N89W. The ITCZ extends from 08N93W to 1007 mb low pressure near 07N120W, then continues on to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 06N to 09N east of 88W, from 06N to 12N between 95W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak 1014 mb low pressure area is southwest of Guadalupe Island near 27N120W, along a trough reaching from near San Diego, California to 24N121W. This feature is breaking up the usual subtropical ridge over the area, and therefore allowing only light to gentle breezes off Baja California, except for moderate winds near Cabo San Lucas. Combined seas are 6-7 ft primarily in NW swell off Baja California. Light breezes and slight seas prevail across the Gulf of California. Gentle breeze and 4-6 ft in NW swell persist off southern Mexico. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to support mostly gentle to moderate NW winds across the area waters, with fresh winds possible near the coast of Cabo San Lucas each afternoon and evening. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds with 5-7 ft seas prevail across the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W this morning. Moderate easterly winds then extend beyond 90W to well south of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate breezes with 3-5 ft seas in SW swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse across the Papagayo region, mainly in the overnight and early morning hours through Thu morning, then diminish through Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends north of 20N southward from a 1035 mb high near 40N141W, and southeastward around a low level trough just southwest of Isla Guadalupe, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of 10N and west of 120W, with 7-10 ft combined seas primarily in NW swell. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5-7 ft are noted elsewhere. Trade wind convergence is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ between 105W and 120W. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to steadily subside from east to west through midweek, becoming gentle to moderate winds with 6 to 7 ft seas by Fri. Winds south of the ITCZ will also becoming gentle by Fri with seas remaining at 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC202300_C_KWBC_20260520230048_49676782-3626-TWDEP.txt ****0000004412**** AXPZ20 KNHC 202300 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed May 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 94W from off the Gulf of Tehuantepec southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Convection is already described in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends westward from central Costa Rica and to 07N100W. An ITCZ extends westward from 07N100W to 08N115W, then from 06N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is active from 03N to 09N east of 90W, including the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia and the far southeastern corner of Nicaragua. Numerous moderate and scattered strong 05N to 13N between 108W and 115W. Scattered moderate from 03N to 08N between 90W and 108W, and from 06N to 10N west of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A modest surface ridge near 128W is supporting gentle to locally moderate NW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas are present in the Gulf of California. Mainly gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. For the forecast, the will support gentle to locally moderate NW winds with moderate seas west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands through the weekend. Locally strong winds are possible near the coast of Cabo San Lucas each afternoon and evening. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas exist in the Papagayo region waters. Easterly fresh E winds with seas at 5 to 6 ft persist across the southern waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted for the remaining offshore waters in central America. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds with seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells dominate waters off Colombia and Ecuador, and near the Galapagos Islands. Refer to the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the region. For the forecast, fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong, mainly in the overnight and early morning hours through Thu morning, and then again on Sun night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak 1014 mb low near 26N119W is triggering patchy showers from 23N to 25N between 118W and 124W. Farther south, another 1009 mb low and related surface trough is generating scattered moderate convection from 04N to 12N between 117W and 124W. Refer to the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section for additional convection in the East Pacific Basin. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1035 mb high near 37N144W across 30N140W to just southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature is maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 118W. Gentle to moderate N to NE to E winds with 6 to 8 ft in mixed NW and S swells exist north of the ITCZ east of 118W. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to subside to between gentle to moderate, and 5 to 6 ft by this weekend. Winds south of the ITCZ will also becoming gentle by Fri with seas remaining at 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################