--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-07-24 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC240405_C_KWBC_20260724040553_49676782-9083-TWDEP.txt ****0000008282**** AXPZ20 KNHC 240405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fausto is centered near 18.3N 128.4W, or about 1075 nm west of the southern tip of Baja California at 24/0300 UTC, moving west at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 32 ft. Satellite imagery shows that Fausto has appears slightly stronger than the past few hours. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 150 nm of the center over in the E semicircle, within 180 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and within 120 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Fausto is forecast to maintain its present motion over the next few days. Little change in intensity is forecast through tonight, followed by steady weakening through the weekend. Swells generated by Fausto are affecting the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and the coast of southern California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Storm Warning: Low pressure, Invest EP98 near 09N97W 1007 mb, is gradually becoming better organized. Winds associated with this low pressure are expected to reach gale-force in about 24 hours or sooner, and storm-force of 45 to 55 kt afterward. Presently, winds are 20 to 30 kt with the low, but are expected to build rather quickly Fri through Sat night as the winds reach storm-force. Seas are expected to reach at peak of around 18 ft by late Sat. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form within the next couple of days, while the system moves generally west-northwestward and remains well offshore of Mexico. The low pressure has a high chance of developing into a tropical depression of storm during the next couple of days. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov and please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave associated to the Special Features low is along 97W from 03N to 14N, with the low pressure near 09N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 12N between 97W and 103W, and also from 06N to 11N between 103W and 105W. Please, see the Special Features section for more information related to this system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure over northwest Colombia to 08N78W to 10N90W to low pressure, Invest EP98, near 09N97W to 08N107W and to 09N116W. It resumes SW of Fausto near 11N139W to beyond 140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm south of the trough between 78W-85W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto, centered about 1075 nm W of the southern tip of Baja California. Fausto continues to move westward and away from the Revillagigedo Islands, allowing a ridge to build in across the offshore waters of Baja California and to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern supports fresh to strong NW winds north of Punta Eugenia, and mainly gentle to moderate NW to N winds between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas. Seas generating by Fausto are still spreading across the area, and mixing with the building northerly wind waves to produce seas 6 to 8 ft across the Baja waters, highest N of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, as Hurricane Fausto continues to move westward high pressure will continue to build across the Baja California offshore waters through tonight. The pressure gradient between high pressure that builds in over the region in the wake of Fausto and a trough over the Gulf of California will induce fresh to strong winds and rough seas N of Punta Eugenia through Fri morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast during the overnight hours and into the mornings through the upcoming weekend. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is showing some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form within the next couple of days, while the system moves generally west- northwestward remaining well offshore of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong N to E winds continue across the Papagayo region and extending downwind to near 91W, and northward to northwestern Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 8 ft with these winds based on altimeter data. This is occurring behind a tropical wave with axis along 96W. The monsoon trough remains active across the offshore waters. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse at night and into the morning across the Papagayo region through Sat. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas in SW swell will remain elsewhere. Seas associated with a developing low pressure system near 09N97W may impact the offshore waters of Guatemala through Fri, building seas to around 9 ft. Cross- equatorial southerly swell will begin to reach the Galapagos Islands on Fri, and build through the weekend and into Mon before is begins to decay on Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto, centered about 1075 nm W of the southern tip of Baja California. Hurricane Fausto dominates conditions over the High Seas forecast waters roughly from 12N to 25N between 120W and 132W. Fresh to strong winds outside of the immediate circulation of Fausto extend northward to 24N, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far N of Fausto as 27N. A couple of altimeter passes also indicate that the 12 ft seas are reaching as far N as 23N. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the waters between Baja California and Fausto, and also N of 15N W of 130W. Moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas prevail. SW swell are entering the equatorial waters W of 120W with raising seas 6 to 8 ft S of 05N. For the forecast, Fausto will move to near 18.5N 130.4W Fri morning, to near 18.8N 133.1W Fri evening with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt to near 19.1N 135.5W Sat morning, 19.6N 137.8W Sat evening, 19.8N 140.1W Sun morning, and weaken to a tropical storm W of the area near 20.1N 142.8W Sun evening. Please refer to the Special feature section for details on the next tropical cyclone forecast to develop well offshore of Mexico over the upcoming weekend. Strong cross-equatorial swell has begun to move into the area and slowly build through Fri, then reach 8 ft and higher Sat through Mon. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################