--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2024-09-12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC120304_C_KWBC_20240912030454_18087986-9898-TWDEP.txt ****0000006561**** AXPZ20 KNHC 120304 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Sep 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93): A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles off the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm SW semicircle of low center. Earlier scatterometer data indicate an embedded low near 18N106.5W, with fresh to strong winds roughly within 180 nm of the low in the SE semicircle, and within 120 nm of the low in the NW semicircle. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system moves slowly northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and toward the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and west- central Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Currently, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and also through the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information about this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a western Caribbean tropical wave extends southward along 85W/86W to near 07N. It is moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 07N to 11N between 81W and 87W. A tropical wave, associated with the broad low pressure system as described above, has its axis along 107W from 09N to 20N. Aside from the convection described above in the Special Features section, scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 13N between 104W and 107W, and from 15N to 20N between 104W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 1006 mb low pressure near 18N106.5W to 15N120W to 11N130W. The ITCZ extends from 11N130W to beyond 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves and low pressure, scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 110W and 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are along and within about 60 nm offshore the coasts of southern Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan associated with the broad area of low pressure described above under Special Features. High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds north of Cabo San Lazaro with seas of 5 to 7 ft, and gentle to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas with seas of 4 to 5 ft due to south swell. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are over the Gulf of California. Light winds dominate the TEhuantepec region and the offshore waters of Oaxaca. For the forecast, fresh to strong southeast winds will develop over the central and southern Gulf of California out of this system on Fri. Elsewhere, a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure in the Pacific and deepening pressures in northern Mexico will support moderate to fresh northwest winds and moderate seas in northwest swell north of Punta Eugenia through early Fri, then mainly moderate winds and slight seas afterward. Farther south, a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the system moves slowly northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and toward the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and west- central Mexico during the next day or two. Please see the Special Features section for more details. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light and variable winds are over the Papagayo region along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds are north of it. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell, except 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. North of the trough, light to gentle winds are expected. Moderate seas in primarily southwest swell will continue through the period, with the highest seas expected to peak to 6 or 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the waters north of about west of 115W. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is noted under the influence of this system with an area of fresh northeast winds from 15N to 22N west of about 125W as noted in partial ASCAT satellite data passes from this afternoon. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere. Mainly moderate southwest to west winds continue south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of it to near 20N and east of 125W. For the forecast, fresh southwest winds and building seas are expected south of the monsoon trough roughly between 108W and 123W through Thu as low pressure, possibly becoming a tropical cyclone, develops expect increasing winds and building seas across the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico on Thu, and across the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Los Cabos Thu night into Fri. Meanwhile, high pressure will continue to build north of 20N and west of 120W, with its associated gradient supporting moderate to fresh northeast winds and moderate seas through Fri. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC120913_C_KWBC_20240912091403_18087986-9926-TWDEP.txt ****0000006263**** AXPZ20 KNHC 120913 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Sep 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93): A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm SW semicircle of low center. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and toward the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. Currently, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and also through the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information about this system. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a western Caribbean tropical wave extends southward along 87W to near 07N. It is moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis from 07N to 13N between 83W and 88W. A tropical wave, associated with the broad low pressure system as described above, has its axis along 107W from 09N to 20N. Aside from the convection described above in the Special Features section, scattered moderate convection to isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 21N between 103W and 109W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends near the coasts of northern Central America and SE Mexico from 11N86W to 1004 mb low pressure located near 18N107W to 11N130W. The ITCZ extends from 11N130W to beyond 10N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves and low pressure, scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 115W and 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong east to southeast winds are along and within about 90 nm offshore the coasts of southern Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan associated with the broad area of low pressure described above under Special Features. High pressure dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds north of Cabo San Lazaro with seas of 5 to 7 ft, and gentle to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas with seas of 4 to 5 ft due to south swell. Recent scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate southerly winds over the northern part of the Gulf of California where seas are in the 3 to 4 ft range. Elsewhere across the remainder of the Gulf light to gentle winds prevail with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Light and variable winds dominate the Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, as the broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico develops, expect increasing winds and building seas across the offshore waters of Colima and Jalisco, including Cabo Corrientes today. There marine conditions are expected to spread across the waters between Las Marias and the Revillagigedo Islands later today, possible reaching Los Cabos and the entrance to the Gulf of California tonight into Fri. Elsewhere, a tightening pressure gradient between high pressure in the Pacific and deepening pressures in northern Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh northwest winds and moderate seas north of Punta Eugenia through early Fri. Seas will briefly build to 8 to 9 ft in NW swell N of Punta Eugenia today and tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle NE winds are over the Papagayo region along with seas of 4 to 5 ft in south to southwest swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds are north of it. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell, except 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, gentle to moderate south to southwest winds will continue south of the monsoon trough through the rest of the week. North of the trough, light to gentle winds are expected. Moderate seas in primarily southwest swell will continue through the period, with the highest seas of 6 to 7 ft across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and western Panama, and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands today. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the waters north of the mon soon trough and west of 115W. Moderate to locally fresh anticyclonic flow is noted under the influence of this system with an area of mainly fresh northeast winds from 15N to 20N west of 135W as noted in recent satellite derived wind data. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere. Mainly moderate southwest to west winds continue south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of it to near 15N to 18N and west of 110W. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the northern forecast waters the remainder of the week producing moderate to locally fresh winds through Fri. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and seas of 6 to 9 are expected S of the monsoon trough roughly between 100W and 125W today and tonight. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################