--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-05-13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC130318_C_KWBC_20260513031818_32440682-100-TWDEP.txt ****0000006238**** AXPZ20 KNHC 130318 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed May 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 09.5N83W to 09N87W. The ITCZ extends from 09N87W to 08N93W to 05.5N100W to 08.5N115W to 07N125W to 09.5N136W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11.5N between 81W and 104W and from 06.5N to 11.5N between 125W and 138W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 11.5N between 109W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge reaching across the offshore waters of Baja California is partially disrupted by a surface trough just beyond the offshore waters along 126W. This pressure pattern supports moderate NW to N winds across the offshore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas, except locally fresh along the coast, light to gentle winds across the waters north of Punta Eugenia. Seas across these waters are generally 4 to 5 ft in NW swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate N-NW winds along the coast prevail across central and southern portions, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds have developed N of 30N due to localized troughing. Seas there are also 2 to 4 ft. Farther southeast, light to gentle winds prevail south of Baja Sur to Puerto Angel, where seas are 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Strong N to NE gap winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec to 15N, with fresh NE winds then continuing to well offshore, due to high pressure building southward across eastern Mexico behind a cold front reaching across the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within these winds. For the forecast, strong to near gale-force northerly gap winds will pulse at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu morning as high pressure builds over eastern Mexico behind a cold front in the Bay of Campeche. Seas will peak around 10 ft at times with these winds. Fresh to strong N winds will then pulse there into early Fri before diminishing. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds will continue overnight in the northern Gulf of California as trough develops there, then possibly again Wed evening. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California later tonight through Fri as ridging west of the area strengthens. Winds will increase to fresh to strong well offshore Baja California Norte this weekend. Moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell will dominate the offshore waters, building to 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte by Fri night, then to 8-12 ft on Sun, with seas of 8 ft or greater spread southward to offshore of Cabo San Lazaro. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh E to SE winds are offshore southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 88W this evening. Seas have subsided there to 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the waters, except for moderate NW to N winds across the western Gulf of Panama. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft in southerly swell, except 5-7 ft from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Very active convection earlier this afternoon is shifting slowly westward and well offshore, and diminishing in intensity. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to locally strong offshore of the Papagayo region through much of the week, mainly at night into the early morning hours, building seas locally to rough during those times. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend, locally moderate to fresh out of the N-NE in the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula at times. Showers and thunderstorms offshore of western Panama and Cost Rica this evening will gradually shift westward and diminish across the area through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge extends across the waters N of the ITCZ to 20N. This pattern supports gentle to moderate mainly NE trades across the waters N of the ITCZ, except moderate to fresh from 09N to 18N and W of 120W. Seas are mainly 5-8 ft seas in mixed long period southerly and northerly swell. Mainly gentle E-SE winds prevail S of the ITCZ, along with 6-7 ft seas, except 7-9 ft seas in southerly swell S of the Equator and W of 100W. Active convection is present near a low level trough along about 115W and the ITCZ there, as described above. For the forecast, the ridge will weaken slightly ahead of an approaching weak cold front currently reaching near 30N140W. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, N of the ITCZ to about 22N and W of 120W tonight, with seas of 6-8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the week. New high pressure will begin to build across the region from the NW early Wed through Fri to produce fresh trade winds S of 23N and W of 125W, with seas building 7-9 ft. N winds are expected to strengthen slightly to fresh to strong across the NE and N-central waters by the weekend, with seas building there as a result. Rough seas to around 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the far southwestern waters S of the Equator and W of 100W, and will persist there tonight. Seas of around 8 ft may continue across this same area through the end of the week and into the weekend. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################