--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-08-31 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC310407_C_KWBC_20260831040752_38011292-1061-TWDEP.txt ****0000006166**** AXPZ20 KNHC 310407 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.1N 123.8W at 31/0300 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are around 36 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 13N to 20N between 120W and 127W. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast Monday night into Tuesday. Karina is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible over the next day or so. Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located well offshore of southwestern Mexico remain disorganized. Scattered moderate to strong convection extends from 03N to 15N between 94W and 117W. Fresh to strong winds are also in the vicinity of the disturbance. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system continues to move west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and also through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 91W north of 07N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 03N between 87W and 94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 08N90W to 11N106W to 12N118W. In addition to the convection near Karina, and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident N of 03N E of 85W to the coast of Colombia. Part of this convective activity is affecting western Panama and Costa Rica. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Karina, and Invest EP95. Hurricane Karina is near 17.1N 123.8W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Fresh SE winds and rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Hurricane Karina are still reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh N gap winds are now blowing across Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of California, except the central part of the Gulf where fresh to strong winds are noted. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are present elsewhere. For the forecast, Karina will continue to move WNW, and trailing fresh SE winds affecting the Revillagigedo Islands as well as rough seas to 9 ft across the Baja California offshore waters will move away from the area by Mon morning. Fresh to strong southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds tonight, and prevail the remainder forecast period. Strong winds and rough seas associated with Invest EP95 are forecast to affect the outer SW Mexican offshores Tue, with this conditions shiftting to the Baja California Sur offshores the remainder forecast period. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 11N88W, with 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through early this week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon early this week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina, and Invest EP95. Hurricane Karina is near 17.1N 123.8W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 954 mb. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from Karina, EP95 and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters from 11N to 24N between 115W and 128W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Karina will move to 17.1N 124.9W Mon morning, 17.4N 126.6W Mon evening, 17.9N 128.4W Tue morning, 18.4N 130.3W Tue evening, 18.9N 132.1W Wed morning, and 19.3N 134.0W Wed evening. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves near 20.2N 137.2W late Thu. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC310949_C_KWBC_20260831094954_21889468-840-TWDEP.txt ****0000006597**** AXPZ20 KNHC 310949 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.2N 124.4W at 31/0900 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are around 28 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 14N to 20N between 120W and 128W. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to begin on Tuesday. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible on Monday, followed by fluctuations in intensity through the middle part of this week. Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days and will likely spread northward to southern California on Monday through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located well offshore of southwestern Mexico remain disorganized. Numerous to scattered moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 15N between 101W and 118W. However, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system continues to move west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and also through 7 days. Regardless of development, gale- force winds will be likely for the Revillagigedo Islands, the outer Baja California Sur offshores S of Cabo San Lazaro as well as the Baja California offshore adjacent waters Tue night through late Fri. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 92W north of 05N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 03N between 88W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N100W to 14N116W, then resumes SW of Karina near 12N130W to 11N139W. In addition to the convection associated with Karina, Invest EP95 and the tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident N of 03N E of 88W, and from 00N to 10N W of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Invest EP95. Moderate to fresh N gap winds are now blowing across Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of California, except the central part of the Gulf where fresh to strong winds are noted. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are present elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds and rough seas associated with Invest EP95 are forecast to affect the outer SW Mexican offshores W of 101W today through Wed, with these conditions shiftting to the Baja California Sur offshores the remainder forecast period. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system continues to move west-northwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, gale-force winds will be likely for the Revillagigedo Islands and the outer Baja California Sur offshores S of Cabo San Lazaro Tue night through late Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 11N88W, with 5 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through Fri night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina, and Invest EP95. Hurricane Karina is near 17.2N 124.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 942 mb. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from Karina, EP95 and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters from 11N to 24N between 115W and 128W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Karina will move to 17.4N 125.8W this afternoon, 17.7N 127.6W Tue morning, 18.1N 129.6W Tue afternoon, 18.6N 131.7W Wed morning, 19.1N 133.6W Wed afternoon, and 19.4N 135.7W Thu morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves near 20.0N 139.5W early Fri. Looking ahead, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of EP95, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next couple of days while the system continues to move west-northwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, gale-force winds will be likely for the Revillagigedo Islands, the outer Baja California Sur offshores S of Cabo San Lazaro as well as the Baja California offshore adjacent waters Tue night through late Fri. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC311534_C_KWBC_20260831153456_21889468-857-TWDEP.txt ****0000006208**** AXPZ20 KNHC 311534 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Aug 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.4N 125.1W at 31/1500 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt Peak seas are around 35 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 15N-19N between 121W-129W. This motion is expected to continue through the rest of today. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Tuesday. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity remain possible today, and a gradual weakening trend is expected to begin on Tuesday. Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days and will likely spread northward to southern California on Monday through midweek. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95): A 1008 mb low at 12N109W, designated Invest EP95, is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone later today or tonight while it moves steadily toward the northwest. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 06N-13N between 105W-112W. Peak winds are currently 30 kt and largest seas 11 ft. Because of this system, a Storm Warning has been issued for the zone near the Revillagigedo Islands. Highest winds and largest seas should occur Wed and Thu. While the core of the system may stay outside of the zones west of Baja California Sur, fresh to near gale conditions and large swell are likely to occur in these offshore zones on Thu and Fri. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 109W from 05N-20N with a 1008 mb low at 12N109W, moving west around 10 kt. This system is also denoted Invest EP95. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 06N-13N between 105W-112W. Another tropical wave axis is along 94W from 05N-15N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-16N between 89W-98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica at 09N83W to 12N120W. After ending southeast of Karina, the monsoon trough resumes again from 10N129W to 11N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 06N-13N between 105W-112W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-16N between 89W-98W, north of 05N east of 85W, from 04N-12N between 113W-128W, and from 03N-08N west of 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Invest EP95. A 1008 mb low at 12N109W, designated Invest EP95, has peak winds over the Mexican Offshore Zones are 25 kt and seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-7 ft over Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-16N between 89W-98W. For the forecast, Invest EP95 is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone later today or tonight while it moves steadily toward the northwest. Because of this system, a Storm Warning has been issued for the zone near the Revillagigedo Islands. Highest winds and largest seas should occur Wed and Thu. While the core of the system may stay outside of the zones west of Baja California Sur, fresh to near gale conditions and large swell are likely to occur in these offshore zones on Thu and Fri. Elsewhere, fresh S to SE winds may occur in the northern Gulf of California on Thu and Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate or weaker over forecast waters with seas 5-6 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 05N east of 85W. For the forecast, winds and seas should remain quiescent for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina, and Invest EP95. Aside from Karina and Invest EP95, winds across the High Seas are moderate to locally strong with seas 5-7 ft. For the forecast, Karina will move to 17.6N 126.4W this evening, 18.0N 128.4W Tue morning, 18.4N 130.3W Tue evening, 18.8N 132.3W Wed morning, 19.2N 134.2W Wed evening, and 19.5N 136.1W Thu morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.2N 139.9W early Fri. Invest EP95 is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone later today or tonight while it moves steadily toward the northwest. Because of this system, Storm Warnings has been issued for Storm Warnings have been issued for the High Seas waters adjacent to the Mexico Offshore zone. The system should continue moving northwestward reaching around 20N120W by Fri night. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################