--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-03-12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC120406_C_KWBC_20260312040722_29294990-9617-TWDEP.txt ****0000005325**** AXPZ20 KNHC 120406 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Mar 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf of America tonight and extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by Thu morning. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front allowing strong winds to funnel across the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu morning. These winds will rapidly reach near gale-force speeds later in the morning and accelerate to gale speeds early in the afternoon. Rough seas are expected to develop to 10 ft on Thu morning, becoming very rough to 17 ft by Thu evening. Gales will prevail through Fri morning, then winds will gradually reduce in speed and areal coverage through Sat morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 03N87W to 02N96W to 02N104W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 02N104W to 01N123W and beyond 02N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for further information on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A broad surface ridge extends SE from a 1033 mb high NW of the region and covers the offshore waters of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds prevail across the offshores of the Baja Peninsula, the mouth of the Gulf of California, as well as offshore Jalisco, Mexico. These winds are due to the pressure gradient between the low pressure over eastern Mexico and the aforementioned ridge. Seas N of Punta Eugenia are 7 to 8 ft, while 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, strong high pressure will build in the Gulf of America in the wake of a cold front, allowing strong winds to funnel across the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu morning. These winds will rapidly reach near gale-force speeds later in the morning and accelerate to gale speed early in the afternoon. Rough seas are expected to develop to 10 ft on Thu morning, becoming very rough to 17 ft by Thu evening. Gales will prevail through Fri morning, then winds will gradually reduce in speed and areal coverage through Sat morning. A ridge will continue to build towards Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes through Thu, while new NW swell spreads across the waters of Baja California Norte. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected between Baja California and Cabo Corrientes, including Las Tres Marias, through tonight. Northwest fresh to strong winds along the Gulf of California will diminish to moderate speeds Thu morning as the ridge weakens modestly across the area. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate to rough seas are ongoing across the Papagayo region, extending downwind to approximately 92W. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas prevail across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 03N. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with moderate seas in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse to strong at night across the Papagayo region through Sun as high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will also pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sun. Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. New cross- equatorial SW swell is forecast to move into the Galapagos offshore waters Sat and subside Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1033 mb remains well NW of the region. An associated broad ridge covers the waters N of about 12N and W of 108W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 02N to 21N west of 110W, except fresh to strong from 07N to 19N between 116W and 134W. Altimeter data show rough seas in the 8 to 10 ft range within these winds. Northwest swell is entering the high seas west of the Baja California Norte offshore waters, thus affecting the region N of 27N between 120W and 134W with rough seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas in mixed N and S swell. For the forecast, high pressure NW of Baja California will extend a ridge south and southeastward across the E Pacific subtropical waters. The NW swell W of the Baja California Norte offshores is forecast to subside Thu night. Looking ahead, new cross-equatorial SW swell is expected to move into the Galapagos adjacent waters Fri late afternoon and subside by Sun evening. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC120940_C_KWBC_20260312094025_29294990-9636-TWDEP.txt ****0000005057**** AXPZ20 KNHC 120940 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Mar 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front in the NW Gulf of America is forecast to extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche later this morning. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front allowing strong to near gale-force winds to funnel across the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. These winds are forecast to accelerate to gale speeds early in the afternoon today. Rough seas are expected to develop to 10 ft during the morning, and become very rough to 20 ft tonight. Gales will prevail through Fri morning, then winds will gradually reduce in speed and areal coverage through Sat morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 03N87W to 02N96W to 02N105W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 03S105W to 02N130W and beyond 02N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for further information on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A broad surface ridge extends SE from a 1033 mb high NW of the region and covers the offshore waters of Baja California. Moderate NW to N winds prevail across the offshores of the Baja Peninsula, the mouth of the Gulf of California, as well as offshore Jalisco, Mexico. These winds are due to the pressure gradient between a trough over NW Mexico and the aforementioned ridge. Seas N of Punta Eugenia are 7 to 8 ft in NW swell, while 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, strong high pressure will build in the Gulf of America in the wake of a cold front, allowing strong winds to funnel across the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. These winds will rapidly reach near gale-force speeds and accelerate to gale speeds early in the afternoon. Rough seas are expected to develop to 10 ft this morning, and become very rough to 20 ft tonight. Gales will prevail through Fri morning, then winds will gradually reduce in speed and areal coverage through Sat morning. A ridge will continue to build towards Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes through today, while new NW swell spreads across the waters N of Punta Eugenia. Northwest fresh to strong winds along the Gulf of California will diminish to moderate speeds this evening as the ridge weakens modestly across the area. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds and moderate seas are ongoing across the Papagayo region, extending downwind to approximately 89W. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas prevail across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 05N. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with moderate seas in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse to strong at night across the Papagayo region through Sun as high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will also pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sun. Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. New cross- equatorial SW swell is forecast to move into the Galapagos offshore waters Fri night into Sat, and subside Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge extending from a 1033 mb high well NW of the region dominates the waters N of 12N and W of 110W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining fresh to locally strong NE to E winds from 08N to 21N west of 114W. Altimeter data show rough seas in the 8 to 10 ft range within these winds. Northwest swell continues to spread southward to about 22N, thus affecting the region between 120W and 135W with rough seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas in mixed swell. For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will remain in place over the E Pacific subtropical waters, thus supporting mainly moderate to fresh trades over the tropical waters W of 130W throug Sat. NW swell W of the Baja California Norte offshores is forecast to subside tonight. Looking ahead, new cross-equatorial SW swell is expected to move into the Galapagos adjacent waters Fri late afternoon and subside S of 11N by Sun evening. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC121457_C_KWBC_20260312145747_16515500-9262-TWDEP.txt ****0000004727**** AXPZ20 KNHC 121457 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Mar 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico in the Gulf of America. A strong high pressure system building in the wake of the front is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will increase to gale-force this afternoon. Rough seas are expected to develop to 10 ft during the morning, and become very rough to 20 ft tonight. Gales will prevail through Fri morning, then winds will gradually reduce in speed and areal coverage through Sat morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 03N80W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 06N88W to 01N110W and to beyond 02N140W. A few showers are noted near the ITCZ. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for further information on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a subtropical ridge centered well west of California supports fresh to occasionally strong NW winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 7-9 ft are found in the offshore waters of Baja California, with the highest seas occurring west of Guadalupe Islands. In the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, strong high pressure will build in the Gulf of America in the wake of a cold front, allowing for fresh to strong winds this morning to increase to gale speeds in the afternoon. Rough seas are expected to develop to 10 ft this morning, and become very rough to 20 ft tonight. Gales will prevail through Fri morning, then winds will gradually reduce in speed and areal coverage through Sat morning. A ridge will continue to build towards Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes through today, while new NW swell spreads across the waters N of Punta Eugenia. Northwest fresh to strong winds along the Gulf of California will diminish to moderate speeds this evening as the ridge weakens modestly across the area. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A strong subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the Gulf of Panama and extend downstream to 04N. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with moderate seas in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse to strong at night across the Papagayo region through Sun as high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will also pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sun. Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. New cross-equatorial SW swell is forecast to move into the Galapagos offshore waters Fri night into Sat, and subside Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the eastern Pacific tropical waters and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and rough seas north of the ITCZ to 23N and west of 110W. Meanwhile, moderate anticyclonic winds and rough seas are noted north of 23N and west of 115W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present elsewhere. For the forecast, a broad surface ridge will remain in place over the E Pacific subtropical waters, thus supporting mainly moderate to fresh trades over the tropical waters W of 130W through Sat. NW swell W of the Baja California Norte offshores is forecast to subside tonight. Looking ahead, new cross-equatorial SW swell is expected to move into the Galapagos adjacent waters Fri late afternoon and subside S of 11N by Sun evening. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################