--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-07-25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC250405_C_KWBC_20260725040604_49676782-9181-TWDEP.txt ****0000008466**** AXPZ20 KNHC 250405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fausto is centered near 18.7N 133.9W, or about 500 nm east of Hilo, Hawaii at 25/0300 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows that Fausto's overall structure has changed little during the past several hours. The hurricane continues to exhibit a well-defined and fairly symmetric inner core. The imagery reveals numerous moderate to strong convection within 180 nm of the center in the NE and SW quadrants, within 150 nm in the SE quadrant and 120 nm in the NW quadrant. Fausto is forecast to maintain its current motion for the next several days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Swells generated by Fausto are affecting the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California, and will begin to affect the Hawaiian Islands by Sun. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 9.5N 102.6W at 25/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Satellite imagery shows that numerous strong convection is increasing over the center of Genevieve. The imagery depicts forming banding features mainly in the NW semicircle of Genevieve. Convection with these banding features is of the numerous moderate to strong type intensity within 60 nm either side of a line from 13N101W to 11N104W to 08N105W and to 8.5N103W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 30 nm of a line from 07N103W to 05N106W. Genevieve is forecast to stay well offshore of the Mexican coast during the next few days as it continues in west-northwesward motion. Significant to rapid intensification is expected during the next few days. Genevieve is forecast to become a hurricane on Sat and a major hurricane by late Sun. Swells generated by Genevieve are expected to begin affecting portions of the southwestern coast Mexico over the weekend and will likely reach southern portions of the Baja California peninsula on Mon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories of both systems at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern extension of the tropical wave extends along 86W north of 05N to inland central Honduras and western Nicaragua. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered strong convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 10N to 11N. Isolated showers are elsewhere near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends extends from northwest Colombia to across central Panama and to 08N78W and to 10N96.5W It resumes to the west-southwest of Genevieve at 08N105W and to 07.5N112W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07.5N112W to 07N120W to 06N130W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 115W-127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends northwest to southwest over the waters west of Baja California. The gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressures over Baja California is supporting moderate to fresh northwest to north winds over the waters west of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro and gentle to moderate northwest winds south of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell. Light and variable winds are over waters southeast of Baja California to near 16N along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in south to southwest swell. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds in the northern outer periphery of Genevieve are present south of 16N along with seas 7 to 11 ft in southeast to south swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Genevieve will move to near near 10.4N 104.1W Sat morning, then strengthen to a hurricane near 11.6N 106.5W Sat evening with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt, to near near 12.8N 108.8W Sun morning, and begin to rapidly intensify as it reaches to near 14.0N 110.8W Sun evening, then to near 15.4N 112.6W Mon morning as a major hurricane with maximum sustained 110 kt gusts 135 kt and move to near 16.6N 114.1W Mon evening. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves to near 18.1N 117.0W Tue evening. As Genevieve tracks to the southwest and west of Baja california Sur next week, the pressure gradient between it and high pressure to its north the pressure gradient will tighten west of Baja California Norte. Swells from Genevieve will begin to impact the offshore zones from south to north beginning at building seas over these waters to 12 ft and greater. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh north to northeast winds continue across the Papagayo region and extending downwind to near 91W, and northward to northwestern Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. The monsoon trough remains active across the offshore waters. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds and moderate to rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region well into next week. Gentle to moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama into early next week with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in southwest swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto and on Tropical Storm Genevieve. Hurricane Fausto is impacting a portion of the western part of the area. Fresh to strong winds outside of the immediate circulation of Fausto extend northward to 25N, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far north of Fausto as 27N. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the waters between Baja California and Fausto, and also north of 15N west of about 120W. Moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas prevail. Southwest swell will begin to build seas over the equatorial waters west of 120W by early this evening. For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will move to near 19.0N 135.6W Sat morning, 19.4N 138.0W Sat evening, 19.7N 140.2W Sun morning, and to west of the area at Sun evening. Genevieve will move to near 10.4N 104.1W Sat morning, then strengthen to a hurricane near 11.6N 106.5W Sat evening with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt, to near near 12.8N 108.8W Sun morning, and begin to rapidly intensify as it reaches to near 14.0N 110.8W Sun evening, then to near 15.4N 112.6W Mon morning with maximum sustained 110 kt gusts 135 kt and to near 16.6N 114.1W Mon evening. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves to near 18.1N 117.0W Tue evening. As Genevieve tracks to the southwest and west of Baja california Sur next week, the pressure gradient between it and high pressure to its north the pressure gradient will tighten west of Baja California Norte. Cross-equatorial swell will gradually build seas to 8 to 9 ft over a portion of the south-central waters during the next few days. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC251005_C_KWBC_20260725100607_49676782-9207-TWDEP.txt ****0000009457**** AXPZ20 KNHC 251005 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jul 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fausto is centered near 18.8N 135.1W, or about 1130 nm east of Hilo, Hawaii at 25/0900, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt Latest satellite imagery shows that Fausto's overall structure has changed little during the past several hours. Fausto continues to maintain a well-defined eye and well-established upper-level outflow. The imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the N semicircle, also within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and 180 nm in the SW quadrant. Numerous moderate convection denoted an outer within 30 nm either side of a line from 20N133W to 21N135W to 19N138W and to 18N137W. Fausto is forecast to maintain its current motion for the next several days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Swells generated by Fausto are affecting the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California, and will begin to affect the Hawaiian Islands by Sun. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 10.0N 103.6W, or about 480 nm south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico at 25/0900 UTC moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Satellite imagery shows that numerous strong convection is increasing over and near the center of Genevieve. The imagery depicts forming banding features mainly in the NW semicircle of Genevieve. Convection with these banding features is of the numerous moderate to strong type intensity within 120 nm of the center in the S semicircle, within 30 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and from 10N to 14N between 103W and 107.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 08N between 103W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 14N between 98W and 103W. Genevieve is forecast to stay well offshore of the Mexican coast during the next few days as it continues in west-northwesward motion. Significant to rapid intensification is expected during the next few days. Genevieve is forecast to become a hurricane tonight and a major hurricane by early Mon. Swells generated by Genevieve are expected to begin affecting portions of the southwestern coast Mexico over the weekend and will likely reach southern portions of the Baja California peninsula on Mon. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories of both systems at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern extension of the tropical wave extends along 88W north of 03N to inland eastern El Salvador and across western Honduras. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 11N to 14N, and within 120 nm east of the wave from 03N to 05N. Isolated showers are elsewhere near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends extends from western Colombia to 07N78W to 08N88W and to 09N94W. It resumes southwest of Genevieve at 08N105W and continues to 07N112W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N112W to 08N125W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 114W-118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends northwest to southwest over the waters west of Baja California. The gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressures over Baja California is supporting moderate to fresh northwest to north winds over the waters west of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro and gentle to moderate northwest winds south of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell. Light and variable winds are over waters southeast of Baja California to near 16N along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in south to southwest swell. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds in the northern outer periphery of Genevieve are present south of 16N along with seas 7 to 11 ft in southeast to south swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Genevieve is about 480 nm south- southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico or near 10N103.6W at 25/0900 UTC moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Genevieve will strengthen as it moves to near 11.0N 105.3W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, strengthen to a hurricane near 12.2N 107.5W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt and begin to undergo rapid intensification as it reaches near 13.4N 109.8W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, reach near 14.7N 111.7W late Sun night, near 16.0N 113.4W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt and to near 17.0N 114.8W late Mon night. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves to near 18.5N 117.9W late Tue night. As Genevieve tracks to the southwest and west of Baja california Sur next week, the pressure gradient between it and high pressure to its north the pressure gradient will tighten west of Baja California Norte. Swells from Genevieve will impact just about all of the offshore waters outside the Gulf of California, except for its entrance through next week building seas over these waters to 12 ft and greater. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh north to northeast winds continue across the Papagayo region and extending downwind to near 90W, and northward to southern Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over most of the offshore waters north of Costa Rica. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse across the Papagayo region well into next week. Moderate to rough seas will accompany these winds. Gentle to moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama into early next week with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in southwest swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. The southwest swell will subside around midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto and on Tropical Storm Genevieve. Hurricane Fausto is impacting a portion of the western part of the area. Fresh to strong winds outside of the immediate circulation of Fausto extend northward to 25N, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far north of Fausto as 27N. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the waters between Baja California and Fausto, and also north of 15N west of about 120W. Moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas prevail. Southwest swell will begin to build seas over the equatorial waters west of 120W starting this morning. For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will move to near to 19.1N 136.8W this afternoon, 19.5N 139.1W Sun morning to west of the area Sun afternoon. Genevieve will strengthen as it moves to near 11.0N 105.3W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, strengthen to a hurricane near 12.2N 107.5W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt and begin to undergo rapid intensification as it reaches near 13.4N 109.8W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, reach near 14.7N 111.7W late Sun night, near 16.0N 113.4W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt and to near 17.0N 114.8W late Mon night. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves to near 18.5N 117.9W late Tue night. As Genevieve tracks to the southwest and west of Baja california Sur next week, the pressure gradient between it and high pressure to its north the pressure gradient will tighten west of Baja California Norte. The cross-equatorial swell mentioned earlier will gradually build seas to 8 to 9 ft over a portion of the south-central; waters south of about 03N and between 94W and 128W going into the early part of the week. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC251006_C_KWBC_20260725100707_49676782-9208-TWDEP.txt ****0000009576**** AXPZ20 KNHC 251006 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jul 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fausto is centered near 18.8N 135.1W, or about 1130 nm east of Hilo, Hawaii at 25/0900, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt Latest satellite imagery shows that Fausto's overall structure has changed little during the past several hours. Fausto continues to maintain a well-defined eye and well-established upper-level outflow. The imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the N semicircle, also within 120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and 180 nm in the SW quadrant. Numerous moderate convection denoted an outer within 30 nm either side of a line from 20N133W to 21N135W to 19N138W and to 18N137W. Fausto is forecast to maintain its current motion for the next several days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. Swells generated by Fausto are affecting the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California, and will begin to affect the Hawaiian Islands by Sun. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 10.0N 103.6W, or about 480 nm south-southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico at 25/0900 UTC moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Satellite imagery shows that numerous strong convection is increasing over and near the center of Genevieve. The imagery depicts forming banding features mainly in the NW semicircle of Genevieve. Convection with these banding features is of the numerous moderate to strong type intensity within 120 nm of the center in the S semicircle, within 30 nm of the center in the N semicircle, and from 10N to 14N between 103W and 107.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 08N between 103W and 108W. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 14N between 98W and 103W. Genevieve is forecast to stay well offshore of the Mexican coast during the next few days as it continues in west-northwesward motion. Significant to rapid intensification is expected during the next few days. Genevieve is forecast to become a hurricane tonight and a major hurricane by early Mon. Swells generated by Genevieve are expected to begin affecting portions of the southwestern coast Mexico over the weekend and will likely reach southern portions of the Baja California peninsula on Mon. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories of both systems at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern extension of the tropical wave extends along 88W north of 03N to inland eastern El Salvador and across western Honduras. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 11N to 14N, and within 120 nm east of the wave from 03N to 05N. Isolated showers are elsewhere near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends extends from western Colombia to 07N78W to 08N88W and to 09N94W. It resumes southwest of Genevieve at 08N105W and continues to 07N112W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N112W to 08N125W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 114W-118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends northwest to southwest over the waters west of Baja California. The gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressures over Baja California is supporting moderate to fresh northwest to north winds over the waters west of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro and gentle to moderate northwest winds south of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell. Light and variable winds are over waters southeast of Baja California to near 16N along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in south to southwest swell. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds in the northern outer periphery of Genevieve are present south of 16N along with seas 7 to 11 ft in southeast to south swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Genevieve is about 480 nm south- southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico or near 10N103.6W at 25/0900 UTC moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Genevieve will strengthen as it moves to near 11.0N 105.3W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, strengthen to a hurricane near 12.2N 107.5W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt and begin to undergo rapid intensification as it reaches near 13.4N 109.8W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, reach near 14.7N 111.7W late Sun night, near 16.0N 113.4W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt and to near 17.0N 114.8W late Mon night. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves to near 18.5N 117.9W late Tue night. As Genevieve tracks to the southwest and west of Baja california Sur next week, the pressure gradient between it and high pressure to its north the pressure gradient will tighten west of Baja California Norte. Swells from Genevieve will impact just about all of the offshore waters outside the Gulf of California, except for its entrance through next week building seas over these waters to 12 ft and greater. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh north to northeast winds continue across the Papagayo region and extending downwind to near 90W, and northward to southern Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over most of the offshore waters north of Costa Rica. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse across the Papagayo region well into next week. Moderate to rough seas will accompany these winds. Gentle to moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama into early next week with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in southwest swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. The southwest swell will subside around midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto and on Tropical Storm Genevieve. Hurricane Fausto is impacting a portion of the western part of the area. Fresh to strong winds outside of the immediate circulation of Fausto extend northward to 25N, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far north of Fausto as 27N. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the waters between Baja California and Fausto, and also north of 15N west of about 120W. Moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas prevail. Southwest swell will begin to build seas over the equatorial waters west of 120W starting this morning. A trough is along 126W from 03N to 12N. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N between 123W and 128W. For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will move to near to 19.1N 136.8W this afternoon, 19.5N 139.1W Sun morning to west of the area Sun afternoon. Genevieve will strengthen as it moves to near 11.0N 105.3W this afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, strengthen to a hurricane near 12.2N 107.5W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt and begin to undergo rapid intensification as it reaches near 13.4N 109.8W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, reach near 14.7N 111.7W late Sun night, near 16.0N 113.4W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt and to near 17.0N 114.8W late Mon night. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves to near 18.5N 117.9W late Tue night. As Genevieve tracks to the southwest and west of Baja california Sur next week, the pressure gradient between it and high pressure to its north the pressure gradient will tighten west of Baja California Norte. The cross-equatorial swell mentioned earlier will gradually build seas to 8 to 9 ft over a portion of the south-central; waters south of about 03N and between 94W and 128W going into the early part of the week. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################