--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-05-30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC300404_C_KWBC_20260530040421_47448518-4398-TWDEP.txt ****0000005270**** AXPZ20 KNHC 300404 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat May 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 96W, S of 14N, drifting westward around 5 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate convection are noted from 03N to 10N between 93W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 11N108W to 10N126W to 06N132W. The ITCZ begins near 06N132W and continues beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N to 12N between 77W and 91W, and from 03N to 12N between 110W and 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends into the region to just NW of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across both the Baja Norte and Sur Peninsula offshore waters. Long-period NW swell continue to support moderate to rough seas over these waters. Inside the Gulf of California, winds are light to gentle, except locally moderate NW winds at the entrance of the Gulf. Wave heights are 1 to 3 ft along the Gulf. Light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas in SW swell are elsewhere. For the forecast, NE Pacific high pressure will maintain a ridge across the regional waters through the weekend, producing moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja California offshore waters. The high pressure will then shift northward early next week leading to slightly diminishing winds. NW swell moving through the Baja waters tonight will merge with SW swell Sat through Sun across the waters from the Revillagigedo Islands eastward. New N swell will then enter the Baja Norte waters on Sun and subside early Tue. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across most of the local offshore waters S of 10N and east of the Papagayo region tonight. The strongest thunderstorms are offshore the central coast of Colombia. This strong convection is likely generating strong gusty winds with locally rough seas. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere, except for locally moderate NE winds in Papagayo. Seas are mainly moderate in SW swell, except 7 to 10 ft S of 01.5N, including the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern across the region will result in light to gentle winds through the period, with nocturnal pulses of moderate to fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region. Large SW swell will maintain rough seas across the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Colombia through Sun before subsiding. Otherwise, moderate seas will prevail across the forecast waters into the middle of next week. Expect convection to remain active across the area waters through Sat before shifting northward into Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure covers the waters north of 19N and west of 110W, centered on strong high pressure NE of the Hawaiian Islands. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 118W. Seas over these waters are in the 7 to 10 ft range in a mix of trade wind swell and NW to N swell. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough E of 110W, as well as S of the trough. Seas across the waters S of the trough and ITCZ are generally 6 to 8 ft in building S to SW swell. For the forecast, little change is expected in winds for the next few days. The current NW to N swell will combine with wind generated waves produced by the fresh trade winds N of the monsoon/ITCZ leading to rough seas over the waters W of 120W through Sat. E of 120W, NW to N swell will merge with southerly swell over the central waters during the weekend, with wave heights of 8 to 9 ft forecast to cover a good portion of the waters S through SW of the southern tip of Baja California to the Equator E of 120W, and westward to near 140W. Looking ahead, the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC mentions that a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of next week while moving westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt across the western portion of the East Pacific. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################