--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-10-07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC070325_C_KWBC_20261007032642_31523192-5797-TWDEP.txt ****0000006918**** AXPZ20 KNHC 070325 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.4N 120.4W at 07/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 32 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 17N to 22N and between 118W and 123W. . Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning (Invest 92E): A broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward. A Gale Warning has been issued for the increasing winds and building seas associated with this low pressure late this week in the offshore waters of southern and SW Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis near 90W, extending southward from the Yucatan peninsula to 06N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Isolated moderate conveciton is occurring near the trough axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 12N86W to a 1006 mb low (EP92) near 13N99W. The monsoon trough restarts near 13N115W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 05N-18N between 95W-107W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-04N between 103W-110W. Isolated moderate conveciton is occurring from 05N-12N between 77W-88W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located west-southwest of Baja California, Mexico, and Invest 92E offshore of southern Mexico. The eastern periphery of Hurricane Rachel continues to impact the far offshore waters of Baja California Sur supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds and rough seas, mainly west of 114W. Farther south, a developing low pressure, monitored as Invest 92E, is producing some showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters of southern Mexico. This system is also generating fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas, mainly between 94W and 102W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.8N 121.4W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.4N 122.6W Wed evening, 21.9N 123.8W Thu morning, 22.3N 124.9W Thu evening, 22.5N 125.2W Fri morning, and 23.1N 124.4W Fri evening. Rachel will become post- tropical as it moves to the 25.6N 119.9W late Sat. A weakening Rachel should reach the offshore zones west of Baja California Norte Sat evening as it turns back toward the northeast. A broad area of low pressure (Invest 92E) located offshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient results in moderate or lighter winds across forecast waters with seas 4-6 ft. For the forecast, quiescent winds and seas should continue over the Central American and Equatorial Zones for the next few days. However, looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, while it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance is near zero through 48 hours and is low through 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located west-southwest offshore of Baja California, Mexico. Outside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, a weak pressure gradient is forcing only moderate and weaker winds across forecast waters. Large long-period SW swell is moving across the southern border between 95W-125W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.8N 121.4W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.4N 122.6W Wed evening, 21.9N 123.8W Thu morning, 22.3N 124.9W Thu evening, 22.5N 125.2W Fri morning, and 23.1N 124.4W Fri evening. Rachel will become post-tropical as it moves to the 25.6N 119.9W late Sat. A weakening Rachel should reach the offshore zones west of Baja California Norte Sat evening as it turns back toward the northeast. A broad area of low pressure (Invest 92E) located offshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC070327_C_KWBC_20261007032819_4522426-5842-TWDEP.txt ****0000007176**** AXPZ20 KNHC 070327 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.4N 120.4W at 07/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 32 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 17N to 22N and between 118W and 123W. A generally west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Rachel is then forecast to slow down before making a sharp turn to the northeast by the end of the week. Gradual to steady weakening is forecast over the next few days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gale Warning (Invest 92E): A broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward. A Gale Warning has been issued for the increasing winds and building seas associated with this low pressure late this week in the offshore waters of southern and SW Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis near 90W, extending southward from the Yucatan peninsula to 06N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Isolated moderate conveciton is occurring near the trough axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near 12N86W to a 1006 mb low (EP92) near 13N99W. The monsoon trough restarts near 13N115W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 05N-18N between 95W-107W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-04N between 103W-110W. Isolated moderate conveciton is occurring from 05N-12N between 77W-88W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located west-southwest of Baja California, Mexico, and Invest 92E offshore of southern Mexico. The eastern periphery of Hurricane Rachel continues to impact the far offshore waters of Baja California Sur supporting moderate to fresh southerly winds and rough seas, mainly west of 114W. Farther south, a developing low pressure, monitored as Invest 92E, is producing some showers and thunderstorms across the offshore waters of southern Mexico. This system is also generating fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas, mainly between 94W and 102W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.8N 121.4W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.4N 122.6W Wed evening, 21.9N 123.8W Thu morning, 22.3N 124.9W Thu evening, 22.5N 125.2W Fri morning, and 23.1N 124.4W Fri evening. Rachel will become post- tropical as it moves to the 25.6N 119.9W late Sat. A weakening Rachel should reach the offshore zones west of Baja California Norte Sat evening as it turns back toward the northeast. A broad area of low pressure (Invest 92E) located offshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient results in moderate or lighter winds across forecast waters with seas 4-6 ft. For the forecast, quiescent winds and seas should continue over the Central American and Equatorial Zones for the next few days. However, looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, while it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance is near zero through 48 hours and is low through 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located west-southwest offshore of Baja California, Mexico. Outside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, a weak pressure gradient is forcing only moderate and weaker winds across forecast waters. Large long-period SW swell is moving across the southern border between 95W-125W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.8N 121.4W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.4N 122.6W Wed evening, 21.9N 123.8W Thu morning, 22.3N 124.9W Thu evening, 22.5N 125.2W Fri morning, and 23.1N 124.4W Fri evening. Rachel will become post-tropical as it moves to the 25.6N 119.9W late Sat. A weakening Rachel should reach the offshore zones west of Baja California Norte Sat evening as it turns back toward the northeast. A broad area of low pressure (Invest 92E) located offshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################