--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-10-06 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC060323_C_KWBC_20261006032406_4522426-5742-TWDEP.txt ****0000006269**** AXPZ20 KNHC 060323 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.4N 117.9W at 06/0300 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 31 ft (9.5 M). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 17N to 23N and between 115W and 121W. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next day or so, with gradual weakening expected thereafter. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. South of Southern Mexico (Invest 92E): A broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours and the next 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 15N99W, and from 12N119W to beyond 12N140W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection within 120 nm of the monsoon trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico, and Invest 92E off southern Mexico. Outside of the impacts directly associated with Hurricane Rachel, moderate or weaker winds and rough to very rough seas are found in the remainder of the Baja California offshore waters. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of Mexico due to the developing low pressure system in the area. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.5N 119.0W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.3W Tue evening, 21.0N 121.7W Wed morning, 21.5N 123.0W Wed evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 124.4W Thu morning, and 22.2N 125.4W Thu evening. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to the 22.7N 125.7W late Fri. Seas will continue to subside across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur tonight and Tue as Rachel continues to slowly move away from the area. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure located near the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours and the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean sustain light to gentle winds and mainly moderate seas north of the equator. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the offshore waters of Central America producing gusty winds and higher seas. For the forecast, weak high pressure centered north of the area will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, along with mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas will persist between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several days. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador this week as Invest 92E becomes better organized south of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located SW of Baja California, Mexico. Outside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, high pressure dominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 20.4N 117.9W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Rachel will move to 20.5N 119.0W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.3W Tue evening, 21.0N 121.7W Wed morning, 21.5N 123.0W Wed evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 124.4W Thu morning, and 22.2N 125.4W Thu evening. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to the 22.7N 125.7W late Fri Farther south, long-period SW swell will reach as far as the equator between 95W and 125W Tue through late Thu. Looking ahead, winds may increase and seas build over the waters north of 10N and east of 110W later this week as Invest 92E becomes better organized. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################