--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-02-05 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC050143_C_KWBC_20260205014340_29294990-7223-TWDEP.txt ****0000005367**** AXPZ20 KNHC 050143 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Feb 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant W-NW Swell Event: Rough seas of 12 ft or greater cover the waters NW of a line from 30N134W to 23N140W and are currently peaking near 20 ft. These very rough seas will propagate southeast to cover the waters west of a line from from 30N132W to 18N140W by early Thu, and west of a line from 30N123W to 16N136W by early Fri. Seas are forecast to peak around 22 ft near 30N140W tonight into early Thu. Seas will then gradually subside to just below 12 ft by early Sat, when a large area of seas 8 ft or greater covers much of the waters west of 110W. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure building across the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale- force northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The gale- force winds are forecast to continue through Sat night, potentially peaking at 40-45 kt Thu and Thu night. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these winds, peaking around 18 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79.5W to 02.5N99W to 05.5N115.5W. The ITCZ extends from 05.5N115.5W to 05N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between 87W and 104W, and from 04N to 10N between 108W and 114W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate NW-N winds are noted in the southern Gulf of California to southeast of the entrance of the Gulf. Otherwise, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas, except slight to moderate in the Gulf of California. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a set of decaying mixed swell will impact the far offshore waters of SW and southern Mexico tonight. A set of large NW swell will enter the waters off Baja California Norte the end of the week, spreading across the waters W of 100W during the upcoming weekend before decaying. Winds may pulse to moderate fresh from near the southern Gulf of California and Cabo San Lucas to near Cabo Corrientes at times due to a locally tight pressure gradient. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo, with moderate to fresh winds extending downstream to near 08N91W. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama and elsewhere near the Azuero Peninsula. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Winds may reach minimal gale-force during the upcoming weekend due to a similar weather pattern as the recent gale-force gap wind event. Rough seas will accompany these winds. A gale- force gap wind event in Tehuantepec will produce rough seas well offshore the western Guatemala and El Salvador waters Thu through Fri night. Moderate to fresh northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse for the remainder of the week, then may increase to fresh to strong this weekend into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A Significant W-NW Swell is over the NW waters. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Aside from the large swells discussed above, an area of mixed swell with confused seas of 7 to 8 ft prevails from roughly 04N to 12N between 94W and 115W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with moderate seas in mixed swell. For the forecast, aside from the large W-NW swells described in the Special Features, high pressure is forecast to build over the waters N of 20N, with fresh to strong trades possible from 07N to 20N and west of 110W during the upcoming weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, seas around 8 ft in mixed swell over portions of the central open waters will gradually subside below 8 ft by early Thu. Similar and slightly larger seas are possible over the open waters west of the Gulf of Papagayo and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late in the week and into the weekend, with the next gale-force gap wind events possible there. A cold front may move southeast of 30N140W early next week ushering in fresh to strong winds and reinforcing NW swells in the NW corner of the waters behind it. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC050832_C_KWBC_20260205083246_16515500-6966-TWDEP.txt ****0000004744**** AXPZ20 KNHC 050832 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Feb 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant W-NW Swell Event: Rough seas of 12 ft or greater cover the waters NW of a line from 30N133.5W to 22N140W and are currently peaking near 20 ft. These very rough seas will propagate southeast to cover the waters west of a line from 30N123W to 16N136W by early Fri. Seas will then gradually subside to just below 12 ft by early Sat, when a large area of seas 8 ft or greater covers much of the waters west of 110W. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure building across the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale- force northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The gale- force winds are forecast to continue through Sat night, potentially peaking at 40-45 kt today and tonight. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these winds, peaking around 18 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 09N87W to 02N92W to 04N116W. The ITCZ extends from 04N116W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 89W and 93W, and from 02N to 08N between 105W and 116W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate NW-N winds are noted in the southern Gulf of California to southeast of the entrance of the Gulf. Otherwise, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas, except slight to moderate in the Gulf of California. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a set of large NW swell will enter the waters off Baja California Norte the end of the week, spreading across the waters W of 100W during the upcoming weekend before decaying. Winds may pulse to moderate fresh from near the southern Gulf of California and Cabo San Lucas to near Cabo Corrientes at times due to a locally tight pressure gradient. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama and elsewhere near the Azuero Peninsula. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Winds may reach minimal gale-force during the upcoming weekend due to a similar weather pattern as the recent gale-force gap wind event. Rough seas will accompany these winds. A gale- force gap wind event in Tehuantepec will produce rough seas well offshore the western Guatemala and El Salvador waters Thu through Fri night. Moderate to fresh northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse for the remainder of the week, then may increase to fresh to strong this weekend into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A Significant W-NW Swell is over the NW waters. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Aside from the large swells discussed above, gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas in mixed swell prevail. For the forecast, aside from the large W-NW swells described in the Special Features, high pressure is forecast to build over the waters N of 20N, with fresh to strong trades possible from 07N to 20N and west of 110W during the upcoming weekend into early next week. Rough seas are possible over the open waters west of the Gulf of Papagayo and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late in the week and into the weekend, with the next gale-force gap wind events possible there. A cold front may move southeast of 30N140W early next week ushering in fresh to strong winds and reinforcing NW swells in the NW corner of the waters behind it. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################