--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-09-23 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC230009CCA_C_KWBC_20260923001022_31523192-4389-TWDEP.txt ****0000010675**** AXPZ20 KNHC 230009 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 14.6N 101.5W, or about 185 nm m south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico at 22/2100 UTC, and nearly stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 892 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 155 kt with gusts to 190 kt. Peak seas have risen up to near 45 ft or 14 m. Satellite imagery shows that Polo has a small eye as it continues to intensify. Numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is elsewhere within 270 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere within of the center in the W semicircle. Polo is nearly stationary, but a slow northwestward motion is expected tonight followed by a generally west-northwestward motion over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico through the middle of this week, although it is forecast to remain offshore. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight, with fluctuations in strength possible Wed and Wed night. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through Thu. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and Jalisco through Thu. Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 15.1N 130.1W, or about 1235 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California moving east-northeast at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 24 ft or 7 m. Satellite imagery shows that its deep convection of numerous strong type intensity is within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 270 nm of the center in the center in the SE quadrant, 300 nm of the center in the center in the SW quadrant and 90 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Odalys is forecast to maintain its present motion over the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn to the northeast late this week. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Odalys could become a hurricane later today or tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo and Odalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems. Heavy Rainfall over Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next several days. All of these factors will lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the Caribbean, supporting heavy rainfall through the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern Belize well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Please consult products from your local weather office. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W north of 05N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm west of the wave and 60 nm east of the wave from 12N to 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A shortened monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, then northwestward to across southern Nicaragua and to 12N87W and to 11N89W. No significant convection is presently noted. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on rapidly intensifying Major Hurricane Polo. Aside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to fresh northwest winds are offshore Baja California while moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the waters. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of the waters away from Polo. For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to near 15.0N 101.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 160 kt gusts 195 kt, to near 15.5N 102.4W Wed afternoon, to near 16.2N 103.6W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 155 kt gusts 190 kt, to near 16.7N 105.2W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 150 kt gusts 185 kt, to near 17.0N 106.9W late Thu night with maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt, to near 17.4N 108.5W Fri afternoon and to near 18.7N 111.5W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh northwest winds will prevail across the offshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning when conditions in Baja California Sur offshores will start to deteriorate due to the proximity of Polo. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Odalys currently well to the southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane and gradually approach the waters just beyond the Baja California offshore waters by the end of the upcoming weekend. Outer swells associated with Odalys will propagate into the Baja California waters and mix with those from Polo to create very confused and hazardous seas this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu, then pulse into the upcoming weekend. Also, an area of low pressure is expected to form in the next few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward. This motion should keep it parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the region, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia, eastern Panama and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. The coverage of scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador has diminished this afternoon. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to prevail across the offshore waters for the next several days, except becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. A tropical depression could from this area of low pressure late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly away from the offshore waters. Swells from this system may potentially impact the western portion of the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on extremely dangerous category 5 Hurricane Polo, and on Tropical Storm Odalys. Outside of Odalys and Polo, fresh trades are over the waters roughly from 15N to 23N west of 134W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in mixed northeast and southeast swell within this area of fresh trades. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere as noted in recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite data. For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to near 15.0N 101.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 160 kt gusts 195 kt, to near 15.5N 102.4W Wed afternoon, to near 16.2N 103.6W late Wed night with maximum sustained winds 155 kt gusts 190 kt, to near 16.7N 105.2W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 150 kt gusts 185 kt, to near 17.0N 106.9W late Thu night with maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt and to near 17.4N 108.5W Fri afternoon. Polo will move to near 18.7N 111.5W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Odalys is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane near 15.2N 129.3W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 15.4N 128.0W Wed afternoon with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, to near 15.8N 126.6W late Wed night, to near 16.5N 125.3W Thu afternoon, the begin to weaken as it moves to near 17.3N 124.1W late Thu night and to near 18.0N 123.5W Fri afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 19.6N 123.0W Sat afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Very large seas generated by both systems will merge by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together resulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much maintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through the rest of the week. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC230328_C_KWBC_20260923032922_4522426-4394-TWDEP.txt ****0000009459**** AXPZ20 KNHC 230328 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0140 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Polo is centered near 14.7N 101.3W at 23/0300 UTC, moving northeast at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 905 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt. Peak seas are around 46 ft or 14.0 m. Satellite imagery shows that Polo continues to have a small eye. Numerous strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the E semicircle, and 105 nm in the W semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 240 nm of center, except 390 nm SW semicircle. Polo is drifting toward the northeast. A slow but sharp turn to the northwest is expected to begin tonight followed by a general west-northwestward motion over the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico through the middle of this week, although it is forecast to remain offshore. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next few days, though Polo is expected to remain a very powerful major hurricane. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 15.5N 129.0W at 23/0300 UTC, moving east-northeast at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 25 ft or 7.5 m. Satellite imagery shows that its deep convection of numerous strong type intensity is within 75 nm in the E semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 360 nm of center, except 120 nm in the NW quadrant. Odalys is moving toward the east-northeast. An eastward to east- northeastward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected through the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast then north later this week. Additional strengthening is expected, and Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane later tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo and Odalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems. Heavy Rainfall over Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next several days. All of these factors will lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the Caribbean, supporting heavy rainfall through the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern Belize well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W north of 04N, drifting slowly westward. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N between 81W and 94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to across Panama and Costa Rica, exiting the coast at 10N86W to 08N93W, then resumes well W past the circulations of Polo and Odalys, from 13N131W to 11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Polo and Odalys and the tropical wave all discussed above, no additional convection is present. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on rapidly intensifying Major Hurricane Polo. Aside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to fresh northwest winds are offshore Baja California while moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the waters. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of the waters away from Polo. For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to 15.0N 101.6W Wed morning, 15.9N 102.8W Wed evening, 16.4N 104.3W Thu morning, 16.6N 106.1W Thu evening, 16.8N 108.0W Fri morning, and 17.0N 110.0W Fri evening. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.2N 112.7W late Sat. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh northwest winds will prevail across the offshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning when conditions in Baja California Sur offshores will start to deteriorate due to the proximity of Polo. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Odalys currently well to the southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane and gradually approach the waters just beyond the Baja California offshore waters by the end of the upcoming weekend. Outer swells associated with Odalys will propagate into the Baja California waters and mix with those from Polo to create very confused and hazardous seas this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu, then pulse into the upcoming weekend. Also, An area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the region, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia, eastern Panama and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to prevail across the offshore waters for the next several days, except becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on extremely dangerous major Hurricane Polo, and on Tropical Storm Odalys. Outside of Odalys and Polo, fresh trades are over the waters roughly from 15N to 22N to the W of 133W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in mixed northeast and southeast swell within this area of fresh trades. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere as noted in recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite data. For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to 15.0N 101.6W Wed morning, 15.9N 102.8W Wed evening, 16.4N 104.3W Thu morning, 16.6N 106.1W Thu evening, 16.8N 108.0W Fri morning, and 17.0N 110.0W Fri evening. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.2N 112.7W late Sat. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Odalys will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.5N 128.0W Wed morning, move to 15.8N 126.6W Wed evening, 16.4N 125.3W Thu morning, 17.1N 124.1W Thu evening, 17.9N 123.2W Fri morning, and 18.6N 122.9W Fri evening. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm over 20.2N 122.6W late Sat. Very large seas generated by both systems will merge by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together resulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much maintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through the rest of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC230851_C_KWBC_20260923085225_4522426-4419-TWDEP.txt ****0000009766**** AXPZ20 KNHC 230851 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Sep 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 15.0N 101.4W at 23/0900 UTC, moving north at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 918 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Peak seas are currently around 46 ft or 14 m. Numerous strong convection is noted around the well-defined eye within 150 nm in the E semicircle, and 120 nm in the W semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is found elsewhere within 180 nm of the center, except 330 nm in the SW quadrant. Polo is moving toward the north. A sharp turn to the northwest is expected to begin later today followed by a general west- northwestward motion later this week and over the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, although it is forecast to remain offshore. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected, but Polo is expected to remain a very powerful major hurricane during the next few days. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Thu. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Recently upgraded Hurricane Odalys is centered near 15.9N 128.4W at 23/0900 UTC, moving east-northeast at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are currently around 23 ft or 7 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 300 nm in the NE quadrant, 330 nm in the SE quadrant, and 120 nm in the W semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is found elsewhere within 420 nm in the SE semicircle, and 150 nm in the NW semicircle. Odalys is moving toward the east-northeast. An eastward to east- northeastward motion at a slightly slower speed is expected through the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast then north later this week. Maximum sustained winds have increased. Additional strengthening is expected during the next day or two, followed by a weakening trend late this week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys. Heavy Rainfall over Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next several days. All of these factors will lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the Caribbean, supporting heavy rainfall through the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern Belize well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W/91W north of 04N, drifting slowly westward. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 87W and 96W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to across Panama, exiting the coast at 08N83W to 13N95W, then resumes past the circulations of Polo and Odalys from 13N129W to 13N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Polo and Odalys and the tropical wave all discussed above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found within 180 nm either side of the monsoon trough W of 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on major Hurricane Polo and on recently upgraded Hurricane Odalys well W of the area. Aside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to fresh northwest winds are offshore Baja California while moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the waters. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of the waters away from Polo. Some convection is present near the Gulf of Tehuantepec mainly due to an approaching tropical wave as described above. For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to 15.4N 102.0W this afternoon, 16.2N 103.4W Thu morning, 16.5N 105.0W Thu afternoon, 16.7N 107.0W Fri morning, 16.9N 108.8W Fri afternoon, and 17.3N 110.6W Sat morning. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.4N 112.7W early Sun. Looking ahead, Odalys is forecast to slightly strengthen and gradually approach the waters just beyond the Baja California offshore waters by the end of the upcoming weekend. Outer swells associated with Odalys will propagate into the Baja California waters and mix with those from Polo to create very confused and hazardous seas this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu, then pulse into the upcoming weekend. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters, locally moderate S of the Equator and W of Ecuador. Moderate seas prevail across the region, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia, eastern Panama and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Some convection is present near the coast of Colombia, and beyond 60 nm offshore to the N of 10N due to a passing tropical wave described above. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to prevail across the offshore waters for the next several days, except becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a couple of days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on major Hurricane Polo and on recently upgraded Hurricane Odalys well W of the area. Outside of Odalys and Polo, moderate to fresh trades are over the waters from 14N to 20N to the W of 129W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in mixed northeast and southeast swell within this area, highest to the W of Odalys to 140W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere as noted in recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite data. For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to 15.4N 102.0W this afternoon, 16.2N 103.4W Thu morning, 16.5N 105.0W Thu afternoon, 16.7N 107.0W Fri morning, 16.9N 108.8W Fri afternoon, and 17.3N 110.6W Sat morning. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.4N 112.7W early Sun. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys will move to 16.1N 127.3W this afternoon, 16.5N 126.0W Thu morning, 17.2N 124.7W Thu afternoon, 18.0N 123.5W Fri morning, 18.7N 122.9W Fri afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 19.5N 122.7W Sat morning. Odalys will change little in intensity as it moves to 21.4N 122.6W early Sun. Very large seas generated by both systems will merge by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together resulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much maintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through the rest of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC231542_C_KWBC_20260923154329_4522426-4450-TWDEP.txt ****0000008826**** AXPZ20 KNHC 231542 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Sep 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 15.4N 101.8W at 23/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Peak seas are currently around 44 ft or 13 m. Numerous strong convection is noted around the well-defined eye within 150 nm of the center. A continued NW motion is expected through Wed, with a turn to the WNW expected late this week, continuing through the weekend. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two, although it is forecast to remain offshore. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are expected, but Polo is expected to remain a very powerful major hurricane during the next few days. Heavy rainfall associated with Polo will impact coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Thu. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip current conditions, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Odalys is centered near 16.0N 127.9W at 23/1500 UTC, moving east-northeast at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are around 25 ft or 8 m. Numerous strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Odalys is moving toward the ENE and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast then north later this week. Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, followed by a weakening trend late this week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys. Heavy Rainfall over Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next several days. All of these factors will lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the Caribbean, supporting heavy rainfall through the 26th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely across extreme southeastern Mexico near Chiapas, southern and central Guatemala, western Honduras, El Salvador, southern Belize well as across portions of Costa Rica and Panama. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W north of 05N, drifting slowly westward. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 87W and 96W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 13N95W, then resumes past the circulations of Polo and Odalys from 13N131W to 13N140W. Aside from the convection associated with Polo and Odalys and the tropical wave all discussed above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found within 180 nm either side of the monsoon trough W of 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on major Hurricane Polo and on recently upgraded Hurricane Odalys well W of the area. Aside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to weaker winds dominate. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of the waters away from Polo. Convection has developed in the southern Gulf of California in association with a surface trough. For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to 15.4N 102.0W this afternoon, 16.2N 103.4W Thu morning, 16.5N 105.0W Thu afternoon, 16.7N 107.0W Fri morning, 16.9N 108.8W Fri afternoon, and 17.3N 110.6W Sat morning. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.4N 112.7W early Sun. Looking ahead, Odalys is forecast to slightly strengthen and gradually approach the waters just beyond the Baja California offshore waters by the end of the upcoming weekend. Outer swells associated with Odalys will propagate into the Baja California waters and mix with those from Polo to create very confused and hazardous seas this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu, then pulse into the upcoming weekend. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters. Moderate seas prevail across the region, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia, eastern Panama and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Some convection is present near the coast of Colombia, and beyond 60 nm offshore to the N of 10N due to a passing tropical wave described above. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to prevail across the offshore waters for the next several days, except becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec in a couple of days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Major Hurricane Polo and on Hurricane Odalys. Outside of Odalys and Polo, moderate to locally fresh trades are over the waters from 14N to 20N to the W of 129W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in mixed northeast and southeast swell within this area, highest to the W of Odalys to 140W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to 15.4N 102.0W this afternoon, 16.2N 103.4W Thu morning, 16.5N 105.0W Thu afternoon, 16.7N 107.0W Fri morning, 16.9N 108.8W Fri afternoon, and 17.3N 110.6W Sat morning. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.4N 112.7W early Sun. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys will move to 16.1N 127.3W this afternoon, 16.5N 126.0W Thu morning, 17.2N 124.7W Thu afternoon, 18.0N 123.5W Fri morning, 18.7N 122.9W Fri afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 19.5N 122.7W Sat morning. Odalys will change little in intensity as it moves to 21.4N 122.6W early Sun. Very large seas generated by both systems will merge by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together resulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much maintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through the rest of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################