--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-05-04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC040202_C_KWBC_20260504020255_49676782-2467-TWDEP.txt ****0000004040**** AXPZ20 KNHC 040202 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon May 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 07N95W to 09N91W. The ITCZ continues from 09N91W to 08N120W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 106W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 08.5N between 86W and 88W, from 03N to 07N between 108W and 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to near gale-force northerly wind are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with 6-9 ft seas. Fresh to strong S-SW winds are in the northern Gulf of California due to a locally tight pressure gradient where seas are up to 5 ft. Seas are 3 ft or less across the remainder of the Gulf of California. Mainly light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the waters along with 4-6 ft seas in NW swell. For the forecast, the late-season gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas up to 9 ft will last through Mon morning. Then, winds will diminish to 15 to 20 kt, with seas of 6 to 7 ft on Mon afternoon. Otherwise, fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate seas are expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight, and again Mon night. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds offshore Baja California beginning on Tue night as a stronger ridge builds there. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas, primarily in S-SW swell dominate all the offshore forecast zones. Convection impacting portions of the offshore waters is described above. For the forecast, abundant tropical moisture and surface convergence will persist across the offshore waters from Colombia to Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Panama, likely through midweek, continuing to support the development of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Meanwhile, fresh easterly winds are expected in the Papagayo region tonight through Tue, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Similar winds may return Thu night into the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, in primarily southerly swell, are expected through the week. Looking ahead, a set of SW swell may build seas to locally rough south of the Galapagos Islands Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong upper-level winds are advecting abundant multilayer clouds across the NW and N waters into Baja California Norte and NW Mexico. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 18N between 115W and 140W. Seas are 6-9 ft there. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. High pressure north of the area is going to tighten the pressure gradient north of the ITCZ. In response, trade winds north of the ITCZ to about 18N and west of 130W are going to increase to fresh to strong speeds tonight through Tue night, also sustaining the rough seas. A combination of NW and southerly swells should support moderate seas for the remaining waters through most of the week. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC040707_C_KWBC_20260504070757_49676782-2480-TWDEP.txt ****0000004225**** AXPZ20 KNHC 040707 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon May 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 06N89W to 09N103W. The ITCZ continues from 09N103W to 10N110W to 08N122W to 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 90.5W and 94W, and within 15N102W to 12N102W to 07N114W to 06N125W to 12N128W to 10N123W to 10N115W to 14N104W. Similar convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 137W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to near gale-force northerly wind are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with 6-9 ft seas. Fresh to strong S-SW winds are in the northern Gulf of California due to a locally tight pressure gradient where seas are 4-6 ft. Seas are 3 ft or less across the remainder of the Gulf of California. Seas of 4-6 ft in mainly NW swell dominate the remainder of the waters, along with gentle winds, except moderate to fresh winds near Cabo San Lucas. Meanwhile, plentiful moisture is being advected from the deep tropics south of the Hawaiian Islands to across the north- central discussion waters and over Baja California to the SW United States. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas up to 9 ft will last in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning. Fresh to strong SW winds and moderate seas are expected in the northern Gulf of California until around sunrise, and then again tonight. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds offshore Baja California tonight as a stronger ridge builds there, locally strong near Cabo San Lucas at times. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected through the week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds are in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are moderate in S-SW swell across the waters, except slight offshore Colombia. For the forecast, abundant tropical moisture and surface convergence will prevail across the offshore waters from Colombia to Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Panama, likely through midweek, continuing to support the development of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Meanwhile, fresh easterly winds are expected in the Papagayo region through Tue night, and then again starting Thu night, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through much of the week. Looking ahead, a set of SW swell may build seas to locally rough south of the Galapagos Islands Fri and Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong upper-level winds are advecting abundant multilayer clouds across the NW and N waters into Baja California Norte and NW Mexico. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 18N between 120W and 140W. Seas are 6-9 ft there. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh trades, locally strong at times, north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 120W through the week, with seas of 6-9 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through the week, except seas building to rough south of the Equator by mid-week in southerly swell. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC041432_C_KWBC_20260504143230_47448518-2599-TWDEP.txt ****0000003687**** AXPZ20 KNHC 041432 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon May 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 06N88W to 09N103W. The ITCZ continues from 09N103W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted E of 80W, and from 05N to 11N between 111W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to near gale-force northerly wind are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with seas in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate to fresh gap winds are in the northern Gulf of California, with seas in the 3-5 ft range. Seas are 3 ft or less across the remainder of the Gulf of California. Seas of 4-6 ft in mainly NW swell dominate the remainder of the waters, along with gentle winds, except moderate to fresh winds near Cabo San Lucas. Meanwhile, plentiful moisture is being advected from the deep tropics south of the Hawaiian Islands to across the north- central discussion waters and over Baja California to the SW United States. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will decrease today. Fresh to strong SW winds and moderate seas are expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds offshore Baja California tonight as a stronger ridge builds and tightens the pressure gradient, locally strong near Cabo San Lucas at times. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected through the week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, extending downstream to near 88W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are moderate in S-SW swell across the waters, except slight offshore Colombia. For the forecast, fresh easterly winds are expected in the Papagayo region through Tue night, and then again starting Thu night, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through much of the week. A set of SW swell may build seas to locally rough south of the Galapagos Islands Fri and Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong upper-level winds are advecting abundant multilayer clouds across the NW and N waters into Baja California Norte and NW Mexico. A ridge dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 18N between 120W and 140W. Seas are 6-9 ft over these waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh trades, locally strong at times, north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 120W through the week, with seas of 6-9 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through the week, except seas building to rough south of the Equator by mid-week in southerly swell. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################