--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-10-11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC110248_C_KWBC_20261011024822_31523192-6193-TWDEP.txt ****0000007751**** AXPZ20 KNHC 110248 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Simon is centered near 18.2N 104.8W at 11/0300 UTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 928 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 13N to 21N between 101W and 111W. Simon is moving slowly northward. A slightly faster northward or north-northwestward motion is expected later tonight, and the major hurricane will either make landfall or skirt the coast of west-central Mexico on Sunday. Fluctuations in intensity are anticipated tonight, but Simon is still forecast to approach the coast of west-central Mexico as a major hurricane on Sunday. Rapid weakening could occur if the core of Simon moves fully onshore by Monday. the hurricane is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Sunday. This rainfall will produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is centered near 30.0N 116.5W at 11/0300 UTC, moving north-northeast at 31 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Scattered moderate convection is over forecast waters N of center between 116W and 119W. Rachel is expected to make landfall along the coast of northern Baja California later tonight. Rachel and its moisture will continue to spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban flooding this weekend. Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. Waves generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California today. These waves, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves coincide with the high tides and water levels that are already running well above predicted levels. Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected, with hazardous coastal conditions continuing into early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N91W to 13N100W, then resumes near 16N119W to beyond 10N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 83W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 134W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Simon and Post Tropical Cyclone Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Simon and Rachel, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. A recent scatterometer pass indicated N winds of 15 kt across the Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 14N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft with these winds. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 18.2N 104.8W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 928 mb. Simon will move to 19.1N 105.0W Sun morning, 20.1N 105.3W Sun evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.1N 105.5W Mon morning, 22.0N 105.6W Mon evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 23.0N 105.9W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue evening. Meanwhile, Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is near 30.0N 116.5W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north-northeast at 31 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Rachel will move to 34.5N 114.9W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun evening. Expect increasing winds and building seas over the northern Gulf of California tonight into Sun as Rachel approaches Baja California Norte. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south or southwest of the coast of Mexico by early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter half of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N of 04N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 04N. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region Sun night and Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Post Tropical Cyclone Rachel and Major Hurricane Simon. Outside of the influence of Rachel, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas are noted N of 20N W of 115W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, as Rachel moves over the southwest United States, a cold front is forecast to extend across the northern forecast waters on Sun. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas, in long period northerly swell, will follow the front forecast to reach from the northern Baja California to near 22N125W on Mon while gradually dissipating. Large SW swell will continue to affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC110913_C_KWBC_20261011091406_4522426-6256-TWDEP.txt ****0000006393**** AXPZ20 KNHC 110913 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Simon is centered near 18.7N 105.2W at 11/0900 UTC, moving north-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 15N to 21N between 101W and 111W. The hurricane has turned north- northwest at about 5 kt. This motion is expected to continue today, bringing the core of the hurricane along the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some weakening should start soon due to the hurricane's close proximity to land. However, Simon is still expected to be an extremely dangerous hurricane as it passes near southwestern Mexico today. Catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge impacts are likely along a portion of the west- central coast of Mexico. Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico. This rainfall will produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W, north of 02N. The wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of next week as the system moves generally west- northwestward at around 10 mph. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a high chance for development in the next 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N92W to 12N101W, then resumes near 16N120W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 12N between 80W and 100W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 110W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Simon. Post- Tropical Cyclone Rachel has moved north of the area. Fresh to near- gale force winds on the southern side of the system are impacting the northern Gulf of California. Wind flow around the system is also forcing fresh to strong gap winds over portions of the central Gulf of California as well as fresh to strong winds over the waters west of Baja California Norte. Rough to very rough seas generated by Rachel continue to impact the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 18.7N 105.2W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving north-northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 930 mb. Simon will move to 19.5N 105.4W this afternoon, 20.5N 105.7W Mon morning, 21.2N 106.0W Mon afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.0N 106.3W Tue morning, inland to 23.2N 106.2W Tue afternoon, and dissipate Wed morning. Post- Tropical Cyclone Rachel has moved north of the area. Fresh to strong winds will linger over the northern Gulf of California through early Mon. Winds and seas lingering west of the Baja California peninsula will gradually diminish through early this week. Elsewhere, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern East Pacific are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail over the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are elsewhere N of 04N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 04N. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region tonight and Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Simon. Moderate to fresh winds and rough seas are noted N of 20N W of 115W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, as Rachel moves over the southwest United States, a cold front is forecast to extend across the northern forecast waters today. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas, in long period northerly swell, will follow the front forecast to reach from the northern Baja California to near 22N125W on Mon while gradually dissipating. Large SW swell will continue to affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC111559_C_KWBC_20261011160009_4522426-6293-TWDEP.txt ****0000007014**** AXPZ20 KNHC 111559 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Simon is centered near 19.2N 105.3W at 11/1500 UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 155 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate t scattered strong convection is within 60 nm of center, except 90 nm SW quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is in a band to the E of center from 13N to 18N between 102W and 104W. Simon is moving toward the north-northwest and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or two. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to be very near the coast of west-central Mexico later today and remain close to the coast on Monday. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While some weakening could occur, Simon is still forecast to move very near the coast of west-central Mexico as a major hurricane today. More significant weakening could occur if the core of Simon moves fully onshore or interacts with the higher terrain. Simon is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum storm totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Monday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W, north of 05N. It is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through next 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N90W to 10N95W, then resumes near 12N120W to 10N130W. The ITCZ continues from 10N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 10N E of 95W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to 06N W of 95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Simon. The remnants of Rachel is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Southwestern United States. The last public advisory was issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system at 11/1500 UTC. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas on the southern side of the remnants of Rachel are impacting the northern Gulf of California. Wind flow around the system is also forcing fresh gap winds over portions of the central Gulf of California as well as over the waters west of Baja California Norte. Rough to very rough seas generated by Rachel continue to propagate across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula. Moderate to fresh N winds are blowing across the Tehuantepec area with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Simon, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon will move to 19.9N 105.6W this evening, 20.5N 106.0W Mon morning, 21.1N 106.4W Mon evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 106.8W Tue morning, 22.5N 106.9W Tue evening, and 23.0N 106.9W Wed morning. Simon will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 23.9N 106.4W early Thu. The remnants of Rachel will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds across the northern Gulf of California through early Mon morning. Winds and seas lingering west of the Baja California peninsula will gradually diminish through early this week. Moderate to fresh N winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region through the middle of the week. Elsewhere, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern East Pacific are associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form well south of southern Mexico by the middle or latter half of the week as the system moves generally west- northwestward at around 10 kt. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas prevail over the Papagayo region. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are elsewhere N of 04N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 04N. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region tonight and Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Simon. A cold front is moving across the NE waters followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds and rough seas. Similar marine conditions are noted elsewhere N of 20N W of 110W. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the forecast area. For the forecast, as Rachel continues to move over the southwest United States, the cold front will remain over the northern forecast waters today, reaching from the northern Baja California to near 22N125W on Mon while gradually dissipating. Large SW swell will continue to affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################