--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-02-10 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC100310_C_KWBC_20260210031117_29294990-7585-TWDEP.txt ****0000004473**** AXPZ20 KNHC 100310 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Feb 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0250 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N83W to 02N97W. The ITCZ extends from 02N97W to 03N120W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 01S to 06.5N between 91W and 96W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near-gale force winds and 6 to 9 ft seas persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate breezes prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are 5 to 7 ft overall, except 1 to 2 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds will pulse across the northern Gulf of California Tue ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The front will slowly dissipate as it moves into Baja California Norte Wed into Thu. Large NW swell will follow the front into the waters off Baja California Norte Wed and Wed night, and in the outer waters off Baja California Sur north of Cabo San Lazaro Wed night into Thu. Looking ahead, another front will approach Baja California Fri followed by fresh NW winds and large swell near Guadalupe Island. Farther south, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into Tue, and then again Wed night into Thu night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier this afternoon a scatterometer satellite pass confirmed a large area of strong to near-gale force gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region. It also showed a stream of gap winds emitting from the Gulf of Fonseca area, and across the Gulf of Panama. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo area, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in a mix of swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the end of the week, with seas not appreciably subsiding until Sat. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough extends from central Baja California to an upper upper level trough that extends to 10N. Divergent flow aloft near these features is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 05N to 20N between 106.5W and 116W. This afternoon a scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds along this upper level trough, southwest of Clipperton Island. Farther west, the scatterometer pass also confirmed fresh to strong NE trade winds extending north of the ITCZ to near 20N, west of 125W. Farther north, the scatterometer captured a small circulation near 33N133W, which is the parent low accompanying a cold front moving from west to east across the discussion waters north of 25.5N west of 133W. Fresh to strong NW winds and large NW swell follow the front. The swell is reinforcing an area of older swell in excess of 8 ft covering most of the area west of 120W. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move eastward across the waters north of 20N toward Baja California through mid week. This will in turn allow the fresh to strong trade winds in the deep tropics west of 125W to diminish through tonight. The associated rough seas will subside accordingly. Meanwhile, fresh to strong NW winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front as it continues eastward and reaches a position from 30N126W to 22N140W early Tue. The winds will diminish through Tue night, but large shorter-period NW swell of 8 to 13 ft will cover the area north of 25N and west of 120W before decaying below 8 ft through mid week. Looking ahead, a low pressure area and associated cold front will move eastward across the waters north of 20N Wed through Fri, followed by another round of strong winds and rough to very rough seas. $$ KRV ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################