--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-10-21 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC210316_C_KWBC_20261021031726_38011292-6115-TWDEP.txt ****0000005425**** AXPZ20 KNHC 210316 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure settled over Mexico will continue to funnel northerly gap winds of gale-force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. Seas in these waters are rough. Fresh to strong winds will persist into Thu, then increase to gales again Thu night into Fri night. Gale Warning South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP94): A low- pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. A large area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas surround this low center, and these winds and seas are expected to increase over the next day or so. A Gale Warning has been issued as a result, for Wed into Thu. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 1007 mb low pressure (EP94) near 10N97W, then onward to 06N105W. The ITCZ extends from 05N105W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 95W and 105W, and from 05N to 08N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, 1007 mb low pressure, the remnant of Simon, is centered between Cabo Corrientes and the Revillagigedo Islands near 19N108W. is leading to moderate NW winds across Socorro Island. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure settled over Mexico is funneling northerly gap winds of gale-force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening. Seas in these waters are rough. Winds will diminish to strong by Wed, but will increase to gales again Thu night into Sat. A low- pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Rough seas coming from gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to impact waters well offshore Guatemala. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, rough seas well offshore Guatemala deriving from gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will decay tonight. Winds will pulse nightly to fresh in the Papagayo region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning issued in association with a low pressure system that has a potential for tropical development. Elsewhere, fresh NW winds and rough seas are increasing behind a cold front that extends from 30N124W to 25N130W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, as the cold front moves to the southeast tonight, fresh to strong winds and very rough seas will impact waters north of 25N through Wed, with rough seas reaching as far south as 20N Thu. A low- pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. A large area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas surround this low center, and these winds and seas are expected to increase over the next day or so. A Gale Warning has been issued as a result, for Wed into Thu. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC210842_C_KWBC_20261021084315_21889468-5952-TWDEP.txt ****0000004430**** AXPZ20 KNHC 210842 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP94): A 1007 mb low- pressure system located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 10N98W is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. A large area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas surround this low center, and these winds and seas are expected to increase over the next day or so. A Gale Warning has been issued as a result, for today into Thu. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over Mexico will support pulses of gale-force gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and again Wed night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 1007 mb low pressure (Invest EP94) near 10N98W, then onward to 06N105W. The ITCZ extends from 05N105W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 95W and 105W, and from 05N to 08N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the developing low pressure over southern mexico and the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle breezes and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, outside of areas off southern Mexico impacted by the developing low pressure and the pulsing gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas will persist through Sat night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Rough seas coming from gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to impact waters well offshore Guatemala. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, rough seas well offshore Guatemala deriving from gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will decay tonight. Winds will pulse nightly to fresh in the Papagayo region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on a gale warning issued in association with a low pressure system that has a potential for tropical development. Elsewhere, a 1008 mb occluded low pressure area is centered near 31N130W, with an associated cold front extending from 30N123W to 25N130W to 25N140W. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough to very rough seas with maximum wave heights to 16 ft follow the front. Farther east, scattered showers and thunderstorms along with strong to near- gale force winds and seas to 11 ft are likely within 90 nm of the developing low pressure near 10N98W (Invest EP94), south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate waves in a mix of swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will dissipate through late Thu as it continues to moves westward, with following winds and seas diminishing as they spread southward over the waters north of 15N and west of 125W. Marine conditions will deteriorate off southern Mexico through Sun as Invest EP94 continues to develop. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC211506_C_KWBC_20261021150618_21889468-5981-TWDEP.txt ****0000005208**** AXPZ20 KNHC 211506 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is centered near 9.5N 99.3W at 21/1500 UTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking near 11 ft. Scattered moderate to strong within 45 nm of center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong elsewhere from 01N to 15N between 90W and 103W. The system is moving westward and a slow forward motion is expected with a turn towards the northwest and then north- northwest is forecast. The system is forecast to reach tropical storm intensity by tonight, and hurricane intensity by Thu night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Twenty-Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and TD 22-E is funneling near- gale force northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale- force tonight and Thu night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as TD 22-E further intensifies. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N95W to 04N109W. The ITCZ extends from 04N109W to 06N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N east of 80W, and from 02N to 09N between 110W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E and the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and TS 22-E, light to gentle breezes and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E is near 9.5N 99.3W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Twenty-Two will strengthen to a tropical storm near 9.4N 100.1W this evening, move to 9.7N 101.1W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.2N 102.0W Thu evening, 10.7N 102.6W Fri morning, 11.5N 103.2W Fri evening, and 12.5N 103.6W Sat morning. Twenty-Two will change little in intensity as it moves to near 14.2N 104.4W early Sun. The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and TD 22-E is funneling near- gale force northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale- force tonight and Thu night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as TD 22-E further intensifies. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the discussion waters. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on newly formed TD 22-E. Elsewhere, a 1006 mb low pressure area is centered near 33N125W, with associated cold front extending from 30N121W to 23N132W. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough to very rough seas with maximum wave heights to 16 ft follow the front. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in a mix of swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will dissipate through late Thu as it continues to moves westward, with winds and seas diminishing as they spread southward over the waters north of 15N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is near 9.5N 99.3W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Twenty-Two will strengthen to a tropical storm near 9.4N 100.1W this evening, move to 9.7N 101.1W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.2N 102.0W Thu evening, 10.7N 102.6W Fri morning, 11.5N 103.2W Fri evening, and 12.5N 103.6W Sat morning. Twenty-Two will change little in intensity as it moves to near 14.2N 104.4W early Sun. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################