--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-04-11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC110241_C_KWBC_20260411024158_9109880-946-TWDEP.txt ****0000005443**** AXPZ20 KNHC 110241 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Apr 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09.5N75W to 03.5N82W to 04.5N95W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N95W to 07.5N131W to beyond 07N140W. A second southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 03.4S110W to beyond 01S120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 08.5N between 79W and 91W, and near the ITCZ from 03N to 09N between 96W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure offshore of central Baja California near 120W extends a ridge southeastward to offshore of SW Mexico. This pattern, combined with diurnal heating, is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the nearshore waters of the Baja Peninsula, with gentle to moderate winds farther offshore. Seas across the area waters are 4 to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. Light to gentle NW to W winds prevail across the remaining waters of Mexico eastward to Puerto Angel, with moderate seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf of California. Strong N gap winds have begun to expand downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, downwind to 15N. Seas there are 6 to 7 ft with these winds. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northerly gap winds are expected across and downwind of the Tehuantepec region through early Sun morning, with seas building up to 9 ft during the early mornings. Afterwards, mainly moderate to fresh N winds are expected through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and moderate seas are expected off Baja California through the middle of next week, as high pressure gradually strengthens across the region beginning Mon. Fresh to locally strong SW to W winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Sun night ahead of a couple of weak frontal boundaries approaching Baja California Norte. Seas will build up to 5 or 6 ft with these winds. Elsewhere between Baja and Puerto Angel, winds will be moderate or weaker with moderate seas through the middle of next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 88W this evening. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell prevail in the Gulf of Panama, and extend to just offshore of the Azuero Peninsula. Active convection offshore of Colombia this afternoon has diminish and it focused further inland. Meanwhile scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from the waters of Costa Rica southwestward and well offshore, likely producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds are expected mainly during the nighttime and early morning hours in the Papagayo area and downwind to beyond 90W through at least Tue. Winds up to 30 kt, and seas up to 9 ft are forecast this upcoming weekend. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate northerly winds, occasionally fresh, are expected throughout the forecast period, with stronger conditions most likely during this weekend. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Pulses of active convection will continue across the waters S of 09N through the weekend, and will propagate westward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well NW of the area extends a ridge southeastward into the area, and dominates the forecast area N of 15N and W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. A sharp upper level trough has moved into the area N of 20N today between 125W and 135W, and is inducing unstable conditions, with multilayer clouds and scattered showers from 19N to 28N between 114W and 123W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to locally fresh winds N of the ITCZ to about 16N between 100W and 130W, and south of 24N to the west of 130W. Moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and S swell generally prevail across the area waters. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters over the next several days with little change in winds and seas, before the high shifts southeast Mon through midweek to strengthen the pressure gradient modestly. Mainly moderate winds are expected in the trade wind zone through Mon. On Sun, another cold front will enter the N waters, and likely reach the northern Gulf California on Mon. Gentle to moderate N winds and moderate seas are forecast in the wake of the front. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC110901_C_KWBC_20260411090203_38666572-974-TWDEP.txt ****0000006346**** AXPZ20 KNHC 110901 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Apr 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09.5N75W to 04N82W to 07N88W to 04.5N95W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N95W to 04.5N114W 08N133W to beyond 06N140W. A second southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 03.4S110W to beyond 01.5S120W. Scattered strong convection is occurring from 02N to 07.5N east of 79.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07.5N between 81W and 93W, and near the ITCZ from 03N to 10N between 96W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure offshore of central Baja California near 120W extends a ridge southeastward to offshore of SW Mexico. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds across the nearshore waters of the Baja Peninsula, except locally fresh winds near Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate NW winds wrap around Baja Sur and become westerly across the entrance into the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are farther offshore. Seas across the area waters are 4 to 6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. Light to gentle NW to W winds prevail across the remaining waters of Mexico eastward to Puerto Angel, with moderate seas 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf of California, except across far N portions where fresh westerly gap winds have developed. Strong N gap winds have begun to expand downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, downwind to 14.5N. Seas there are 6 to 9 ft with these winds, as recently confirmed by satellite altimeter data. An upper level trough shifting eastward into the area is producing multilayered cloudiness and scattered showers aloft across the Baja Sur offshore waters, across Baja Sur and into the south and central Gulf of California. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas are expected off Baja California through Mon, before winds freshen modestly as high pressure gradually strengthens across the region through mid-week. Fresh to locally strong SW to W gap winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Mon night, ahead of a couple of weak frontal boundaries that will approach Baja California Norte. Seas will build up to 5 or 6 ft with these winds. Elsewhere between Baja and Puerto Angel, winds will be moderate or weaker with moderate seas through the middle of next week. Pulsing fresh to strong northerly gap winds are expected across and downwind of the Tehuantepec region through early Mon morning, with seas building up to 9 ft during the early mornings. Afterwards, mainly moderate and variable winds are expected through Wed. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and extend downwind to near 89W tonight, producing seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell prevail in the Gulf of Panama, and extend beyond the Azuero Peninsula to 05N. Strong convection has developed across NW Colombia tonight and has shifted westward into the waters E of 79.5W there. Meanwhile scattered moderate convection extends from the waters of western Panama and Costa Rica southwestward. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. Recent satellite altimeter data indicates that this SW swell is generating seas of 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the waters S of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh gap winds are expected to pulse to strong during the nighttime and early morning hours across the Papagayo region and downwind to 90W through Tue, as broad high pressure continues to dominate the NW Caribbean. Winds up to 30 kt, and seas up to 9 ft are forecast this upcoming weekend. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate northerly winds, occasionally fresh, are expected throughout the forecast period, with periods of stronger conditions most likely during this weekend. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Cross-equatorial SW swell will raise seas to 6 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Tue through Wed. Pulses of active convection will continue across the waters S of 09N through Mon, and will propagate westward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak high pressure NW of the area extends a ridge southeastward into the area, and dominates the forecast area N of 15N and W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. A sharp upper level trough continues across the area N of 15N tonight between 115W and 130W, and is inducing unstable conditions, with multilayer clouds and scattered showers from 20N to 28N between 110W and 122W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to locally fresh winds N of the ITCZ to about 14N between 100W and 125W, and south of 24N to the west of 125W. Moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and S swell generally prevail across the area waters. For the forecast, a broad and weak high pressure ridge will dominate the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters through early Mon, with little change in winds and seas, before the high shifts southeast Mon through midweek to strengthen the pressure gradient modestly. Mainly moderate winds are expected in the trade wind zone W of 95W through Mon. On Sun, another cold front will enter the N waters, and likely reach the northern Gulf California on Mon. Gentle to moderate N winds and moderate seas are forecast in the wake of the front. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################