--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-05-22 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC220146_C_KWBC_20260522014806_47448518-3805-TWDEP.txt ****0000003785**** AXPZ20 KNHC 220146 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri May 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N105W to 08N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 84W and 96W, and from 02N to 12N between 102W and 123W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N W of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient prevails over the region, supporting gentle to moderate winds over the open waters, and light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California. Seas are moderate, 4 to 6 ft, in NW swell across the offshore waters, except to 7 ft NW of Isla Guadalupe, and slight inside the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will dominate through late week, leading to moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds. Moderate to fresh westerly gap winds will develop during the evening and nighttime hours across the central and southern Gulf of California through early Sat. High pressure will build modestly across the region from the W by late weekend and early next week. This will tighten the pressure gradient, leading to moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja California, with a slight increase in seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are over the Papagayo region. Moderate N gap winds and moderate seas to 4 ft, are over the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-7 ft prevail between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate gap winds will pulse to fresh each night across the Papagayo region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail into the weekend. Expect periods of active convection S of 10N and E of 90W through Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from high pressure centered NW of the area to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and west of 135W, with moderate winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ west of 110W. Moderate winds are found elsewhere S of 01N, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas over the discussion waters are in the 6-7 ft range, except locally reaching 8 ft N of 05N and W of 135W. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. This will loosen the pressure gradient and allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to decrease slightly to between gentle to moderate, with seas of 5 to 6 ft, respectively, by this weekend. Little change is expected S of the ITCZ into the weekend. Active convection is expected to continue near the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 100W and 120W through Sat. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC220800_C_KWBC_20260522080109_47448518-3821-TWDEP.txt ****0000003879**** AXPZ20 KNHC 220800 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri May 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N94W to 10N107W to 06N131W. The ITCZ extends from 06N131W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 82W and 100W, and from 05N to 12N between 104W and 123W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N W of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient prevails over the region. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over most of the discussion waters. The main exceptions are south of Cabo San Lucas where moderate to fresh winds prevail, and across portions of the Gulf of California where gap winds are resulting in moderate to fresh winds. Seas are moderate, 4 to 6 ft, in NW swell across the offshore waters, except to 7 ft NW of Isla Guadalupe, and slight inside the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will dominate through late week, leading to moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds. Moderate to fresh westerly gap winds will develop during the evening and nighttime hours across the central and southern Gulf of California through early Sat. High pressure will build modestly across the region from the W by late weekend and early next week. This will tighten the pressure gradient, leading to moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja California, with a slight increase in seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE to E gap winds are over the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds prevail between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, and 4-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate gap winds will pulse to fresh each night across the Papagayo region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail into the weekend. Expect periods of active convection S of 10N and E of 90W through Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from high pressure centered NW of the area to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and west of 135W, with moderate winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ west of 110W. Moderate winds are found S of 01N, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas over the discussion waters are in the 6-7 ft range, except locally reaching 8 ft N of 05N and W of 135W. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. This will loosen the pressure gradient and allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to decrease slightly to between gentle to moderate, with seas of 5 to 6 ft, respectively, by this weekend. Little change is expected S of the ITCZ into the weekend. Active convection is expected to continue near the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 100W and 120W through Sat. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC221540_C_KWBC_20260522154104_49676782-3756-TWDEP.txt ****0000005132**** AXPZ20 KNHC 221540 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri May 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N77.5W to 05N80W to 10N86W to 06.5N95W to 10N103W to 09.5N119W to 06N130W. The ITCZ extends from 06N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 79W and 103W, from 04N to 09N between 114W and 125W, and from 08N to 10N between 131W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 05N to 14.5N between 105W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient continues over the regional waters as the NE Pacific ridge extends eastward to about 120W. Early morning satellite scatterometer winds showed light to gentle NW to N winds across most of the Baja offshore waters, and moderate to fresh NW winds near the coast of Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas. Seas across the Baja waters are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell, except to 7 ft NW of Isla Guadalupe and near the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Satellite scatterometer winds also showed a few plumes of moderate to fresh westerly gap winds across portions of the southern Gulf of California, while moderate SW to S winds prevail across northern portions. Seas in the Gulf are generally 3 ft or less, except to 4 ft in the area of fresh westerly gap winds in the south. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remaining Mexican offshore waters to Tehuantepec, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Middle-level troughing south through southwest of Tehuantepec continues to support scattered active convection offshore of Tehuantepec between 12.5N and 15N. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will dominate Sat, leading to moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds. Moderate to fresh westerly gap winds will develop during the evening and nighttime hours across the central and southern Gulf of California through early Sat. High pressure will build modestly across the region from the W Sun through early next week. This will tighten the pressure gradient, leading to moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja California, with a slight increase in seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate E to SE gap winds have developed across the Papagayo region and coastal waters of Nicaragua in recent hours. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama, while further south, overnight satellite scatterometer wind data showed gentle to moderate southerly winds to the south of 06N, extending to between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5-6 ft in S swell between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, and 4-5 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms are drifting NW across the near and offshore waters of western Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, moderate gap winds will pulse to fresh each night across the Papagayo region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail into the weekend. Expect periods of active convection S of 10N and E of 90W through Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from high pressure centered well N of the Hawaiian Islands, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and west of 135W, with mostly moderate winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ west of 110W. Moderate winds are found S of 01N, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas over the discussion waters are in the 5-7 ft range in mixed SW and N to NE swell, except locally reaching 8 ft N of 05N to 13N and W of 128W. Seas are also reaching near 8 ft along the equator to the W of 115W as SW swell continue to move through the area. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through Sat. This will loosen the pressure gradient and allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to decrease slightly to between gentle to moderate, with seas of 5 to 6 ft, respectively, by this weekend. Little change is expected S of the ITCZ into the weekend. Active convection is expected to continue near the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 100W and 120W through Sat. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC222043_C_KWBC_20260522204414_47448518-3871-TWDEP.txt ****0000005645**** AXPZ20 KNHC 222043 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri May 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 05N78W to 10N88W to 06.5N97W to 11N116W to 08.5N124W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N126W to 07N133W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 11N between 82W and 97W, and from 08N to 10N W of 133W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 15N between 99W and 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient continues over the regional waters as the NE Pacific ridge extends southeastward to about 120W, and then through the Revillagigedo Islands to 108W. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed light to gentle NW to N winds across most of the Baja offshore waters, and moderate to fresh NW winds near the coast of Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas. Seas across the Baja waters are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell, except to 7 ft NW of Isla Guadalupe and near the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Satellite scatterometer data also showed a few plumes of moderate westerly gap winds across portions of the southern Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate SW to S winds prevail across northern portions. Seas in the Gulf are generally 3 ft or less, except to 4 ft in the area of westerly gap winds in the south. Light to gentle winds prevail over the remaining Mexican offshore waters to Tehuantepec, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Middle- level troughing south through southwest of Tehuantepec continues to support scattered convection offshore of Tehuantepec south of 14N, but has diminished in intensity this afternoon. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will dominate the regional waters through Sat, leading to moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds. Moderate to fresh westerly gap winds will develop during the evening and nighttime hours across the central and southern Gulf of California through early Sun. High pressure will build modestly across the region from the W Sun through early next week. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the Baja waters by Sun afternoon, leading to moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja California through Tue, with a slight increase in seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... MOderate to fresh NE to E gap winds have developed across the Papagayo region and waters of southern Nicaragua this afternoon, and have expanded westward to 93W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across this area. Gentle to locally moderate N to NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama. South of 05N, recent satellite scatterometer data data shows gentle to moderate southerly winds, extending to between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5-6 ft in S swell between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, and 4-5 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms are drifting NW across the near and offshore waters of western Panama and Costa Rica and extend well offshore. For the forecast, moderate gap winds will pulse to fresh each night across the Papagayo region through early Sun, then increase to fresh to strong Sun night and Mon night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail into the weekend. Fresh SW swell will move into the Galapagos area waters on Sun, when seas there will build to near 8 ft. Expect periods of active convection S of 10N and E of 90W through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from high pressure centered well N of the Hawaiian Islands, through the Revillagigedo Islands to near 108W. The pressure gradient between high pressure ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE trade winds between ITCZ and 22N, to the west of 130W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft in N to NE swell. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 20N and W of 110W. Moderate winds are found S of 05N, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas over these waters are in the 5-7 ft range in mixed SW and N to NE swell. Seas are also reaching near 8 ft along the equator to 02N the W of 110W, per recent satellite altimeter data, as SW swell continue to move into the area. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through Sun. This will loosen the pressure gradient and allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to decrease slightly to between gentle to moderate, with seas of 5 to 7 ft, respectively, by this weekend. Little change in winds is expected S of the ITCZ into the weekend. Large SW swell will continue to impact the southern waters through the weekend, as seas to around 8 ft occurring S of 05N will gradually shift eastward of 120W through early next week. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################