--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-07-13 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC130330_C_KWBC_20260713033038_9109880-8137-TWDEP.txt ****0000007578**** AXPZ20 KNHC 130330 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico as described with the monsoon trough below. Currently, winds are 20 to 25 kt with this system, along with seas of to 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next 2 or 3 days while the system moves generally west- northwestward, well off the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W, and extends along the western coast of Colombia from 04N northward to the Caribbean Sea, relocated from an earlier position near 73W. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W, from 03N northward over portions of southern and SW Mexico, moving slowly westward around 5 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. The axis of a tropical wave is along 132W from 05N to 19N, moving westward at around 10 kt. A 1007 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 13N132W. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 09N91W. The ITCZ extends from 09N91W to 09N97W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 08N99W to 11N121W. Another monsoon trough segment extends from 12N125W to low pressure, 1007 mb, near 13N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 83W, from 09N to 16N between 88W and 100W, from 03N to 10N between 100W and 113W, from 14N to 18N between 121W and 124W, from 10N to 18N between 126W and 132W, and from 06N to 12N between 132W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 84W and 93W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas in mixed swell. Similar wind speeds are also noted in the Gulf of California where slight seas prevail, except near the entrance to the Gulf where seas are in the 3 to 4 ft range. Moderate northerly winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas. An area of fresh to strong winds extends from the coast of Oaxaca to about 11N between 94W and 102W along with moderate to locally rough seas. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate from the NW and seas are generally moderate, primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail during this period. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the week, strongest during the late night and early morning hours, with locally rough seas at times. Otherwise, a broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly winds are in the Papagayo region with moderate to fresh easterly winds elsewhere from 10N to 13N. Winds are light to gentle across the remainder of the waters. Moderate seas dominate the waters. Areas of convection associated with two tropical waves and the monsoon trough are described above with locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region mainly at night through at least Fri night along with moderate to locally rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are forecast to impact the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala tonight and Mon as a broad area of low pressure persists several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge prevails across the waters N of 20N W of 110W. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly moderate or weaker winds are observed with moderate seas in mixed swell. South of 20N, there are two tropical waves and a surface trough. The surface trough runs from 20N118W to 09N124W. Any associated convection is described above. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere, locally fresh south of the ITCZ between 95W and 110W, along with moderate seas. For the forecast: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring several areas with the potential for tropical cyclone development across the eastern and central Pacific. Three of those disturbances are located in the eastern Pacific region. One is a broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico that continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. The second one is an area of low pressure located well west- southwest of the Baja California Peninsula that continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, primarily east of its center. This system is expected to move west- northwestward into less favorable environmental conditions during the next couple of days, and its development chances appear to be decreasing. Currently, the Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and also through 7 days. Also, a area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week or next weekend while it moves generally west- northwestward well offshore of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC130807_C_KWBC_20260713080726_32440682-5135-TWDEP.txt ****0000008333**** AXPZ20 KNHC 130807 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jul 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico as described with the monsoon trough below. Currently, winds are 20 to 25 kt with this system, along with seas of to 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next 2 or 3 days while the system moves generally west- northwestward, well off the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W, and extends from near the NW border of Colombia and Ecuador at 02N northward to near the Panama Canal and into the Caribbean Sea, moving westward at around 15 to 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. The axis of a tropical wave is near 99.5W, from 04N northward over portions of southern and SW Mexico, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section, with additional details also in the Special Features section regarding the potential for tropical cyclone formation. The axis of a tropical wave is along 133W from 04N to 19N, moving westward at around 10 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 15N132W. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to 10N86W to 09N94W. The ITCZ extends from 09N94W to 09N98.5W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 09N101W to 04N119W to 12N131W. Another monsoon trough segment extends from 12.5N133.5W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 77W and 83W, within 300 nm either side of the ITCZ between 95W and 114W, and from 12N to 17N between 128W and 132W. Similar convection is found within 120 nm of the coast between 87W and 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 133W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to moderate winds per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with moderate seas observed by a pair of recent altimeter passes, in mixed swell. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California where slight seas prevail. Moderate to increasing northerly winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas. An area of fresh to strong winds extends from the coast of Oaxaca to about 11N between 96W and 101W along with mainly rough seas. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate from the NW and seas are generally moderate, primarily in SW swell. Active convection is present offshore of the majority of southern and SW Mexico as described above. For the forecast, a tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds will prevail through Tue night, increasing to moderate to locally fresh in the central and northern portions midweek. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the week, strongest during the late night and early morning hours, with locally rough seas at times. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh easterly winds in the Papagayo region observed by an earlier ASCAT pass have likely increased to fresh to strong in the past few hours, with moderate to fresh easterly winds elsewhere from 10N to 12N. Winds are light to gentle across the remainder of the waters per ASCAT and OSCAT scatterometer passes. Moderate seas dominate the waters. Areas of convection associated with the monsoon trough are described above with locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region mainly at night through at least Fri night along with moderate to locally rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are forecast to impact the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala today due to the departing presence of a tropical wave several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge prevails across the waters N of 20N W of 110W. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly moderate or weaker winds are observed by recent ASCAT scatterometer passes, with moderate seas in mixed swell. South of 20N, there are two tropical waves and a surface trough. The surface trough runs from 21N121W to 09N121W, while the tropical waves are near 99.5W and 132W as mentioned above. Any associated convection is described above. A 1008 mb low pressure area analyzed on the tropical wave near 132W is supporting locally fresh winds and locally rough seas within about 150 nm in the northern semicircle. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere, locally fresh south of the ITCZ between 97W and 120W, along with moderate seas. For the forecast, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring several areas with the potential for tropical cyclone development across the eastern and central Pacific. Three of those disturbances are located in the eastern Pacific region. One is a tropical wave a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. The second area is an area of low pressure located well west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula, which continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, primarily east of its center. This system is expected to move west-northwestward into less favorable environmental conditions during the next couple of days, and its development chances appear to be decreasing with a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and also through 7 days. Finally, an area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the week several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week or next weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a medium chance through 7 days. Otherwise, expect little change except for freshening winds in the northwestern open waters by the end of the week as the pressure gradient tightens, resulting in building seas to rough. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC131528_C_KWBC_20260713152904_49676782-8171-TWDEP.txt ****0000006930**** AXPZ20 KNHC 131528 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jul 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico as described with the monsoon trough below. Currently, winds are 20 to 25 kt with this system, along with seas of to 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next 2 or 3 days while the system moves generally west- northwestward, well off the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W/80W, north of 03N, moving westward at around 15 to 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W, from 04N northward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section, with additional details also in the Special Features section regarding the potential for tropical cyclone formation. The axis of a tropical wave is along 133W from 04N to 19N, moving westward at around 10 kt. A 1007 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 14N132W. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N90W. Segments of the ITCZ continues from 09N90W to 09N98W, and from 10N105W to 05N120W to 11N130W. The monsoon trough resumes from 13N135W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 13N to 18N between 95W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 10N between 105W and 110W, and from 10N to 15N between 125W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An overnight scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong NE to E winds off the coast of southwest Mexico from off western Oaxaca to eastern Guerrero, on the northern end of the tropical wave moving through that area. Rough seas accompany these winds. Broad ridging is evident elsewhere off Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere, except light breezes and 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds will prevail through Tue night, increasing to moderate to locally fresh in the central and northern portions midweek. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the week, strongest during the late night and early morning hours, with locally rough seas at times. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong E winds persist across the Gulf of Papagayo, with moderate to fresh easterly winds elsewhere from 10N to 12N. Winds are light to gentle across the remainder of the waters per overnight scatterometer passes. Moderate seas dominate the waters. Areas of convection associated with the monsoon trough are described above with locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region mainly at night through at least Fri night along with moderate to locally rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are forecast to impact the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala today due to the departing presence of a tropical wave several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An overnight scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh E to SE winds on the northern end of the tropical wave along 133W. Concurrent altimeter satellite data indicated seas to 8 ft in this area, near 15N130W. Gentle to moderate winds 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere, except for fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas south of 07N between 95W and 105W. For the forecast, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring several areas with the potential for tropical cyclone development across the eastern and central Pacific. Three of those disturbances are located in the eastern Pacific region. One is a tropical wave a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. The second area is an area of low pressure located well west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula, which continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, primarily east of its center. This system is expected to move west-northwestward into less favorable environmental conditions during the next couple of days, and its development chances appear to be decreasing with a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and also through 7 days. Finally, an area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the week several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week or next weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a medium chance through 7 days. Otherwise, expect little change except for freshening winds in the northwestern open waters by the end of the week as the pressure gradient tightens, resulting in building seas to rough. $$ Christensen/Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC132148_C_KWBC_20260713214946_9109880-8199-TWDEP.txt ****0000006700**** AXPZ20 KNHC 132148 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: Low pressure is developing about 240 nm S-SW of Acapulco, Mexico, along a tropical wave. Strong to near-gale force winds, rough seas, and numerous thunderstorms are ongoing off Guerrero and western Oaxaca. The winds and seas were partially sampled by recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite passes. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the next couple of days while the system moves generally west- northwestward, remaining off the coast of mainland Mexico. Expect strong winds and rough seas near the Revillagigedo Islands by Tue night, as the low pressure makes its closest point of approach to the south of the islands. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W, north of 02N, moving westward at around 15 to 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W, from 04N northward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section, with additional details also in the Special Features section regarding the potential for tropical cyclone formation. The axis of a tropical wave is along 133W from 04N to 19N, moving westward at around 5-10 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 14N133W. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N90W. Segments of the ITCZ continues from 07N90W to 09N98W, and from 08N105W to 06N125W to 11N130W. The monsoon trough resumes from 12N133W to beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 15N to 18N between 100W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 03N to 13N between 95W and 110W, and from 12N to 25N between 125W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... In addition to the winds and seas described in the Special Features section off southwest Mexico, a recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Broad ridging is evident elsewhere off Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere, except light breezes and 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, in addition to the impacts of the developing low pressure described in the Special Features section above, the ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds will prevail through Tue night, increasing to moderate to locally fresh in the central and northern portions midweek. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the week, strongest during the late night and early morning hours, with locally rough seas at times. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, with moderate to fresh easterly winds elsewhere from 10N to 12N. Winds are light to gentle across the remainder of the waters per overnight scatterometer passes. Moderate seas dominate the waters. Areas of convection associated with the monsoon trough are described above with locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region mainly at night through at least Fri night along with moderate to locally rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are forecast to impact the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala today due to the departing presence of a tropical wave several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh E to SE winds on the northern end of the tropical wave along 133W. Earlier altimeter satellite data indicated seas to 8 ft in this area, near 15N130W. Gentle to moderate winds 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere, except for fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas south of 07N between 95W and 105W. For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the tropical wave near 133W diminish through tonight, and further tropical development is not expected. NE winds will freshen with seas 5-7 ft thereafter north of 15N and west of 125W between broad low pressure along the monsoon trough riding farther north. Elsewhere, the main issue will be the development and track of the low pressure described in the Special Features section above. Expect tropical cyclone development with this low pressure through mid week as it moves northwest of the Revillagigedo Islands. Farther south, moderate to fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas will cross the Equator between 100W and 120W and reach as far north as 10N through mid week. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and there is a medium chance tropical depression could form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally west- northwestward well offshore of Mexico. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################