--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-10-04 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC040300_C_KWBC_20261004030113_31523192-5483-TWDEP.txt ****0000005449**** AXPZ20 KNHC 040300 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.0N 112.8W at 04/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 10N to 21N between 110W and 120W. Rachel is moving slowly toward the west-northwest, and this slow motion is expected to continue through the next couple of days. Rachel is forecast to start a weakening trend. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of west- central Mexico through the weekend and the Baja California Peninsula through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N92W to 14N101W, then resumes near 13N116W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 16N east of 102W, and from 00N to 10N W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, prevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are impacting the entrance to the Gulf of California, the offshore waters of Baja California Sur, and the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico west of 105W. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 20.0N 112.8W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Rachel will move to 20.3N 113.5W Sun morning, 20.5N 114.7W Sun evening, 20.6N 116.1W Mon morning, 20.6N 117.9W Mon evening, 20.6N 119.5W Tue morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 121.1W Tue evening. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 21.6N 124.2W late Wed. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, and mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least Mon night. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf through Sun night. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region through Sun, then winds and seas may increase late this weekend or early next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the waters from 10N to 27N between 105W and 123W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 20.3N 113.5W Sun morning, 20.5N 114.7W Sun evening, 20.6N 116.1W Mon morning, 20.6N 117.9W Mon evening, 20.6N 119.5W Tue morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 121.1W Tue evening. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 21.6N 124.2W late Wed. Rough seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the forecast waters roughly from 10N to 27N between 105W and 123W the remainder of the weekend. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC040850_C_KWBC_20261004085115_31523192-5511-TWDEP.txt ****0000005406**** AXPZ20 KNHC 040850 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.2N 113.2W at 04/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center. Rachel is moving slowly toward the west-northwest, and A turn toward the west with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 72 h. Rachel is forecast to start a gradual weakening trend in the next 12 hours or so. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of west- central Mexico through the weekend and the Baja California Peninsula through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 11N91W to 14N100W, then resumes near 13N118W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 86W and 90W, from 00N to 16N between 90W and 105W, and from 00N to 10N between 128W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, prevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are impacting the entrance to the Gulf of California, the offshore waters of Baja California Sur, and the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico west of 105W. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 20.2N 113.2W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Rachel will move to 20.3N 114.0W this afternoon, 20.4N 115.3W Mon morning, 20.5N 116.8W Mon afternoon, 20.6N 118.4W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.0W Tue afternoon, and 20.9N 121.6W Wed morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 124.6W early Thu. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, and mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least Mon night. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf through tonight. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region through tonight, then winds and seas may increase early this week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the waters from 09N to 27N between 105W and 121W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.3N 114.0W this afternoon, 20.4N 115.3W Mon morning, 20.5N 116.8W Mon afternoon, 20.6N 118.4W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.0W Tue afternoon, and 20.9N 121.6W Wed morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 124.6W early Thu. Rough seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the forecast waters roughly from 10N to 27N between 105W and 123W the remainder of the weekend before starting to shift westward along with the system. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC041539_C_KWBC_20261004154018_31523192-5535-TWDEP.txt ****0000005274**** AXPZ20 KNHC 041539 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.2N 113.8W at 04/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 75 nm of center. Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest. A turn toward the west is expected later today, and that motion is forecast to continue through the middle of the week. Fluctuations in strength are possible today, but Rachel is expected to slowly weaken beginning on Monday. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N90W to 14N106W, then resumes W of Rachel near 11N120W to beyond 07N140W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 88W and 92W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 09N W of 126W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, prevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are impacting the entrance to the Gulf of California, the offshore waters of Baja California Sur, and the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico west of 105W. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel Rachel will move to 20.3N 114.7W this evening, 20.5N 115.8W Mon morning, 20.7N 117.5W Mon evening, 20.7N 119.0W Tue morning, 20.9N 120.5W Tue evening, and 21.3N 122.2W Wed morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.2N 125.2W early Thu. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, and mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least Mon night. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf through tonight. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region through tonight, then winds and seas may increase early this week as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador next week as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the waters from 11N to 25N between 106W and 118W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel Rachel will move to 20.3N 114.7W this evening, 20.5N 115.8W Mon morning, 20.7N 117.5W Mon evening, 20.7N 119.0W Tue morning, 20.9N 120.5W Tue evening, and 21.3N 122.2W Wed morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.2N 125.2W early Thu. Rough seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the forecast waters roughly from 10N to 27N between 105W and 120W the remainder of the weekend before starting to shift westward along with the system. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC042154_C_KWBC_20261004215450_4522426-5616-TWDEP.txt ****0000005245**** AXPZ20 KNHC 042154 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.1N 114.3W at 04/2100 UTC, moving west at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 75 nm of center. A continued slow motion is expected through the middle of the week. Fluctuations in strength are possible through tonight, but Rachel is expected to slowly weaken beginning on Monday. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 12N96W, then resumes W of Rachel near 13N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 10N to 14N between 85W and 94W, from 00N to 06N between 100W and 110W, and from 04N to 09N W of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, prevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are still impacting the offshore waters of Baja California Sur, particularly between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Seas are beginning to subside near the entrance to the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 20.2N 115.2W Mon morning, 20.3N 116.6W Mon afternoon, 20.4N 118.2W Tue morning, 20.6N 119.7W Tue afternoon, 20.9N 121.1W Wed morning, and 21.4N 122.7W Wed afternoon. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.3N 125.5W Thu afternoon. Seas will continue to subside near the entrance to the Gulf of California tonight, and across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur on Mon as Rachel continues to slowly move away from the area. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, just offshore of the southern to southwestern coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador next week as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 15N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades winds N of the monsoon trough to about 18N and W of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the waters from 10N to 24N between 107W and 119W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 20.2N 115.2W Mon morning, 20.3N 116.6W Mon afternoon, 20.4N 118.2W Tue morning, 20.6N 119.7W Tue afternoon, 20.9N 121.1W Wed morning, and 21.4N 122.7W Wed afternoon. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.3N 125.5W Thu afternoon. Rough seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the forecast waters roughly from 15N to 25N between 110W and 120W on Mon. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################