--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-10-08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC080342_C_KWBC_20261008034231_4522426-5933-TWDEP.txt ****0000006209**** AXPZ20 KNHC 080342 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 21.4N 122.9W at 08/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 18N to 23N and between 121W to 124W. The WNW is expected to continue over the next day or so. Rachel is then forecast to slow down before making a sharp turn to the northeast by the end of the week. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Simon is centered near 15.6N 102.5W at 08/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 14 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 14N to 19N and between 99W and 106W. The WNW motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Simon is expected to remain south of Mexico through Friday, but approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Simon is expected to become a major hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific through the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to 13N97W and then from 11N114W to 08N125W to beyond 11N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 14N and between 101W and 111W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Simon offshore of southern Mexico. Away from Tropical Storm Simon, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 123.7W Thu morning, move to 22.3N 124.8W Thu evening, 22.6N 124.9W Fri morning, 23.3N 123.5W Fri evening, 24.9N 120.9W Sat morning, and 28.0N 118.2W Sat evening. Rachel should reach the offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on Sat and become post-tropical. Finally, the system is forecast to move across Baja California Norte early Sun just south of the California- Mexico border and move inland to near 36.4N 113.0W late Sun. Tropical Storm Simon will slowly be traversing and impacting the offshore zones off of southern Mexico for the next five days. Simon will move to 15.8N 103.6W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.1N 104.6W Thu evening, 16.4N 105.3W Fri morning, 16.9N 105.5W Fri evening, 17.8N 105.6W Sat morning, and 18.9N 105.5W Sat evening. Simon will change little in intensity as it moves to the 21.6N 105.8W late Sun. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient persists across the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, supporting light to gentle winds and moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, weak high pressure north of the area will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through at the middle of next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala during the early portion of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 kt. The system has a low chance of formation in the next 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located over the NE waters. Outside of the influence of Hurricane Rachel, a weak high pressure supports moderate or weaker winds across forecast waters. Large long-period SW swell is present across the southern border between 95W-120W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 21.4N 122.9W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 123.7W Thu morning, move to 22.3N 124.8W Thu evening, 22.6N 124.9W Fri morning, 23.3N 123.5W Fri evening, 24.9N 120.9W Sat morning. Rachel should reach the offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on Sat and become post-tropical. Additionally, the large SW swell will continue near our southern border for the next several days. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas behind a frontal system will affect the northern waters starting Fri and continue into Sun. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC080929_C_KWBC_20261008092955_31523192-5931-TWDEP.txt ****0000006261**** AXPZ20 KNHC 080929 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0905 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Simon is centered near 15.4N 103.1W at 08/0900 UTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 13N to 18N and between 100W and 107W. A W motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest to north-northwest on Friday. Simon should turn toward the north Friday night and approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Simon is expected to become a major hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 21.8N 123.9W at 08/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 27 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 20N to 24N and between 121W to 126W. The WNW motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours, before a sharp turn to the northeast, along with an increase in forward speed, is forecast to occur. Continued gradual weakening is expected over the next few days. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific through the coast of Panama near 08N83W to 12N98W and then from 11N115W to 08N127W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 13N and between 115W and 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Simon offshore of southern Mexico. Away from Tropical Storm Simon, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon will slowly be traversing and impacting the offshore zones off of southern Mexico for the next five days. Simon will move to 15.4N 104.1W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.9N 105.1W Fri morning, 16.6N 105.5W Fri afternoon, 17.4N 105.6W Sat morning, 18.3N 105.4W Sat afternoon, and 19.3N 105.3W Sun morning near SW Mexico. Simon will change little in intensity as it moves near SW Mexico early Mon. Meanwhile, Rachel will move to 22.1N 124.3W this afternoon, 22.5N 125.0W Fri morning, 22.9N 124.7W Fri afternoon, 24.0N 122.8W Sat morning. Rachel should reach the offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on Sat and become post-tropical. Finally, the system is forecast to move across Baja California Norte early Sun just south of the California- Mexico border and inland over early Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient persists across the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, supporting light to gentle winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, long-period southerly swell will produce rough seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through this evening. Elsewhere, a weak high pressure north of the Caribbean will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through at the middle of next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala during the early portion of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 kt. The system has a medium chance of formation in the next 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Rachel located over the NE waters. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, a weak high pressure supports moderate or weaker winds across forecast waters. Large long-period SW swell is present across the southern border between 95W-125W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 21.8N 123.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Rachel will move to 22.1N 124.3W this afternoon, 22.5N 125.0W Fri morning, 22.9N 124.7W Fri afternoon, 24.0N 122.8W Sat morning, 26.4N 119.9W Sat afternoon, and 30.2N 116.7W Sun morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland over 39.9N 112.2W early Mon. Additionally, the large SW swell will continue near our southern border for the next several days. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas behind a frontal system will affect the northern waters starting Fri and continue into Sun. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC080935_C_KWBC_20261008093655_31523192-5932-TWDEP.txt ****0000006260**** AXPZ20 KNHC 080935 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0905 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Simon is centered near 15.4N 103.1W at 08/0900 UTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 13N to 18N and between 100W and 107W. A W motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest to north-northwest on Friday. Simon should turn toward the north Friday night and approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Simon is expected to become a major hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 21.8N 123.9W at 08/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 27 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 20N to 24N and between 121W to 126W. The WNW motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours, before a sharp turn to the northeast, along with an increase in forward speed, is forecast to occur. Continued gradual weakening is expected over the next few days. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific through the coast of Panama near 08N83W to 12N98W and then from 11N115W to 08N127W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 13N and between 115W and 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Simon offshore of southern Mexico. Away from Tropical Storm Simon, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon will slowly be traversing and impacting the offshore zones off of southern Mexico for the next five days. Simon will move to 15.4N 104.1W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.9N 105.1W Fri morning, 16.6N 105.5W Fri afternoon, 17.4N 105.6W Sat morning, 18.3N 105.4W Sat afternoon, and 19.3N 105.3W Sun morning near SW Mexico. Simon will change little in intensity as it moves near SW Mexico early Mon. Meanwhile, Rachel will move to 22.1N 124.3W this afternoon, 22.5N 125.0W Fri morning, 22.9N 124.7W Fri afternoon, 24.0N 122.8W Sat morning. Rachel should reach the offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on Sat as it accelerates to the NE. Finally, the system is forecast to move across Baja California Norte early Sun just south of the California-Mexico border and inland over early Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient persists across the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, supporting light to gentle winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, long-period southerly swell will produce rough seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through tonight. Elsewhere, a weak high pressure north of the Caribbean will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through at the middle of next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala during the early portion of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 kt. The system has a medium chance of formation in the next 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Rachel located over the NE waters. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, a weak high pressure supports moderate or weaker winds across forecast waters. Large long-period SW swell is present across the southern border between 95W-125W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 21.8N 123.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Rachel will move to 22.1N 124.3W this afternoon, 22.5N 125.0W Fri morning, 22.9N 124.7W Fri afternoon, 24.0N 122.8W Sat morning, 26.4N 119.9W Sat afternoon, and 30.2N 116.7W Sun morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland over 39.9N 112.2W early Mon. Additionally, the large SW swell will continue near our southern border for the next several days. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas behind a frontal system will affect the northern waters starting Fri and continue into Sun. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC080941_C_KWBC_20261008094155_31523192-5934-TWDEP.txt ****0000006260**** AXPZ20 KNHC 080941 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0905 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Simon is centered near 15.4N 103.1W at 08/0900 UTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 13N to 18N and between 100W and 107W. A W motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest to north-northwest on Friday. Simon should turn toward the north Friday night and approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Simon is expected to become a major hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 21.8N 123.9W at 08/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 27 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 20N to 24N and between 121W and 126W. The WNW motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours, before a sharp turn to the northeast, along with an increase in forward speed, is forecast to occur. Continued gradual weakening is expected over the next few days. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific through the coast of Panama near 08N83W to 12N98W and then from 11N115W to 08N127W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 13N and between 115W and 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Simon offshore of southern Mexico. Away from Tropical Storm Simon, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon will slowly be traversing and impacting the offshore zones off of southern Mexico for the next five days. Simon will move to 15.4N 104.1W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.9N 105.1W Fri morning, 16.6N 105.5W Fri afternoon, 17.4N 105.6W Sat morning, 18.3N 105.4W Sat afternoon, and 19.3N 105.3W Sun morning near SW Mexico. Simon will change little in intensity as it moves near SW Mexico early Mon. Meanwhile, Rachel will move to 22.1N 124.3W this afternoon, 22.5N 125.0W Fri morning, 22.9N 124.7W Fri afternoon, 24.0N 122.8W Sat morning. Rachel should reach the offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on Sat as it accelerates to the NE. Finally, the system is forecast to move across Baja California Norte early Sun just south of the California-Mexico border and inland over early Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient persists across the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, supporting light to gentle winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, long-period southerly swell will produce rough seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through tonight. Elsewhere, a weak high pressure north of the Caribbean will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through at the middle of next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala during the early portion of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 kt. The system has a medium chance of formation in the next 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Rachel located over the NE waters. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, a weak high pressure supports moderate or weaker winds across forecast waters. Large long-period SW swell is present across the southern border between 95W-125W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 21.8N 123.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Rachel will move to 22.1N 124.3W this afternoon, 22.5N 125.0W Fri morning, 22.9N 124.7W Fri afternoon, 24.0N 122.8W Sat morning, 26.4N 119.9W Sat afternoon, and 30.2N 116.7W Sun morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland over 39.9N 112.2W early Mon. Additionally, the large SW swell will continue near our southern border for the next several days. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas behind a frontal system will affect the northern waters starting Fri and continue into Sun. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC081601_C_KWBC_20261008160158_31523192-5961-TWDEP.txt ****0000007459**** AXPZ20 KNHC 081601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Simon is centered near 15.4N 103.3W at 08/1500 UTC, moving west at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 14N to 18N between 99W and 105W. A slow west to west-northwest motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest or north on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late Saturday. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Simon is expected to become a hurricane later today and a very dangerous category 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico. Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals between 15 and 25 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through Sunday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 22.1N 124.2W at 08/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 24 ft. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of center. Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest. This general motion is expected to continue over the next day, before a sharp turn to the northeast, along with an increase in forward speed, occurs on Saturday. On the forecast track the center of Rachel is expected to approach the northern portion of Baja California on late Saturday. Gradual weakening is expected over the next few days, but Rachel is still expected to be at tropical storm strength when it approaches northern Baja California. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Interests in extreme northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California, and southern California should monitor the progress of Rachel. Tropical Storm Watches could be required for a portion of this area by tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 14N97W, then resumes S of T.S. Rachel near 13N120W to beyond 11N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 00N to 10N E of 110W, and from 00N to 11N W of 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Simon offshore of southern Mexico. Away from Tropical Storm Simon, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.5N 104.1W this evening, move to 16.1N 104.9W Fri morning, 16.9N 105.1W Fri evening, 17.6N 105.1W Sat morning, 18.7N 105.1W Sat evening, and inland to 19.7N 105.1W Sun morning. Simon will move inland near 22.2N 105.6W early Mon. Meanwhile, Rachel will move to 22.1N 124.3W this afternoon, 22.5N 125.0W Fri morning, 22.9N 124.7W Fri afternoon, 24.0N 122.8W Sat morning. Rachel should reach the offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on Sat as it accelerates to the NE. Finally, the system is forecast to move across Baja California Norte early Sun just south of the California-Mexico border and inland over early Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient persists across the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, supporting light to gentle winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, long-period southerly swell will produce moderate to locally rough seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through tonight. Elsewhere, a weak high pressure north of the Caribbean will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through at the middle of next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 kt. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Rachel located over the NE waters. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, high pressure located well N of area extends a ridge over the NW waters supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Rough seas generated by Rachel currently dominate the area from 17N to 28N between 118W and 130W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel will move to 22.4N 124.9W this evening, 22.7N 125.1W Fri morning, 23.4N 123.9W Fri evening, 25.1N 121.4W Sat morning, 28.4N 118.3W Sat evening, and inland to 32.8N 115.3W Sun morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 42.4N 110.2W early Mon. Additionally, the large SW swell will continue to affect roughly the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas behind a frontal system will affect the northern waters starting Fri and continue into Sun. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################