--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-05-17 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC170404_C_KWBC_20260517040509_32440682-376-TWDEP.txt ****0000006626**** AXPZ20 KNHC 170404 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressures in northwest Mexico and in the Gulf of California will induce fresh to strong south to southwest winds in the northern and central Gulf of California tonight through early on Sun before diminishing to mostly fresh speeds through Sun afternoon. These winds will quickly increase to near gale to gale-force in the northern portion of the Gulf Sun night into early on Mon. Seas are expected to build to around 9 ft with these winds. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure weakens allowing for the culprit tight pressure gradient to slacken. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpc.php for more detail. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia westward to across southern Costa Rica, then to the coast at 09N84W to 06.5N93W and to 07N101W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N114W to 07N124W to 06N132W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 79W-84W, and from 01N to 05N between 81W-88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 116W-121W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ west of 128.5W, and within 60 nm north of the the ITCZ between 128W-135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for upcoming northern Gulf of California gale conditions. Aside from the expected gale conditions in the northern Gulf of California, the same tight pressure gradient between The pressure gradient between strong high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California associated to a thermal trough will lead to fresh to strong northwest winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California Norte through Sun night before diminishing, and moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California Sur also through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to around 17 ft over the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia Sun and Sun night and to around 13 ft south of Punta Eugenia Sun through Mon as a set of long-period northwest to north moves through those waters. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are over the central Gulf of California and light to gentle variable winds are over the southern portion. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the central portion and 3 to 5 ft over the southern portion. Light to gentle winds along with seas of about 3 to 5 ft in long-period south to southwest swell are over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, winds will diminish over the waters west of Baja California on Mon. The northwest swell will slowly subside going into the middle part of the week. The light to gentle winds and seas over the remainder of the offshore waters will change little going into the middle part of the week under a rather weak pressure pattern. Moderate to east to southeast winds are expected across the outer waters of the Tehuantepec region Tue and Tue night along with moderate seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are in the Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure pattern is maintaining light to gentle southwest to west winds south of the monsoon trough and light to gentle northwest to north winds north of the trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in long-periosd south to southwest swell over these waters. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region at night through the period. Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the middle part of the upcoming week. Numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and heavy rain producing low visibilities, will remain over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through at least the early part of the week. At the same time, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of Colombia. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high located well north of the area near 39N138W to near 20N115W. This feature continues to dominate the wind pattern north of the ITCZ. Latest scatterometer data passes reveal fresh trades from 08N to 26N west of about 133W and from 08N to 23N between 120W and 133W. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 ft, as noted in altimeter satellite data passes, in mixed northeast and northwest long-period swell. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are south of the ITCZ, where seas are 5 to 7 ft per latest altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will move little through Sun night maintaining tight pressure gradient over the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W. This will keep fresh to strong northwest to north winds for this area through Mon morning. A trough, with possible weak low pressure along it, should develop offshore southern California and extreme northern Baja California early next week, which will break down the described tight pressure gradient, thus allowing for the fresh to strong winds over the northeast part of the area to drop-off quite significantly. The swell will gradually decay going into the middle part of next week, with seas lowering to just below 8 ft. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC170414CCA_C_KWBC_20260517041509_32440682-378-TWDEP.txt ****0000006563**** AXPZ20 KNHC 170414 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 17 2026 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressures in northwest Mexico and in the Gulf of California will induce fresh to strong south to southwest winds in the northern and central Gulf of California tonight through early on Sun before diminishing to mostly fresh speeds through Sun afternoon. These winds will quickly increase to near gale to gale-force in the northern portion of the Gulf Sun night into early on Mon. Seas are expected to build to around 9 ft with these winds. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure weakens allowing for the culprit tight pressure gradient to slacken. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpc.php for more detail. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia westward to across southern Costa Rica, then to the coast at 09N84W to 06.5N93W and to 07N101W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N114W to 07N124W to 06N132W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 79W-84W, and from 01N to 05N between 81W-88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 116W-121W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ west of 128.5W, and within 60 nm north of the the ITCZ between 128W-135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for upcoming northern Gulf of California gale conditions. Aside from the expected gale conditions in the northern Gulf of California, the same tight pressure gradient between The pressure gradient between strong high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California associated to a thermal trough will lead to fresh to strong northwest winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California Norte through Sun night before diminishing, and moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California Sur also through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to around 17 ft over the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia Sun and Sun night and to around 13 ft south of Punta Eugenia Sun through Mon as a set of long-period northwest to north moves through those waters. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are over the central Gulf of California and light to gentle variable winds are over the southern portion. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the central portion and 3 to 5 ft over the southern portion. Light to gentle winds along with seas of about 3 to 5 ft in long-period south to southwest swell are over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, winds will diminish over the waters west of Baja California on Mon. The northwest swell will slowly subside going into the middle part of the week. The light to gentle winds and seas over the remainder of the offshore waters will change little going into the middle part of the week under a rather weak pressure pattern. Moderate to east to southeast winds are expected across the outer waters of the Tehuantepec region Tue and Tue night along with moderate seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are in the Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure pattern is maintaining light to gentle southwest to west winds south of the monsoon trough and light to gentle northwest to north winds north of the trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in long-periosd south to southwest swell over these waters. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region at night through the period. Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the middle part of the upcoming week. Numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and heavy rain producing low visibilities, will remain over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through at least the early part of the week. At the same time, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of Colombia. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected A broad ridge stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high located well north of the area near 39N138W to near 20N115W. This feature continues to dominate the wind pattern north of the ITCZ. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are over the northeast part of the area along with seas of 8 to 12 ft in large northwest swell. Latest scatterometer data passes reveal fresh trades from 08N to 26N west of about 133W and from 08N to 23N between 120W and 133W. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 ft, as noted in altimeter satellite data passes, in mixed northeast and northwest long-period swell. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are south of the ITCZ, where seas are 5 to 7 ft per latest altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast, the previously described ridge will move little through Sun night maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W and keeping the fresh to strong northwest to north winds over the northeast part until Mon morning. The large northwest swell over the northeast part of the area will decay going into the middle part of the week allowing for seas to lower below 8 ft. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC170712CCA_C_KWBC_20260517071311_32440682-393-TWDEP.txt ****0000006530**** AXPZ20 KNHC 170712 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 17 2026 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressures in northwest Mexico and in the Gulf of California will induce fresh to strong south to southwest winds in the northern and central Gulf of California tonight through early on Sun before diminishing to mostly fresh speeds through Sun afternoon. These winds will quickly increase to near gale to gale-force in the northern portion of the Gulf Sun night into early on Mon. Seas are expected to build to around 9 ft with these winds. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure weakens allowing for the culprit tight pressure gradient to slacken. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpc.php for more detail. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia westward to across southern Costa Rica, then to the coast at 09N84W to 06.5N93W and to 07N101W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N114W to 07N124W to 06N132W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 79W-84W, and from 01N to 05N between 81W-88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 116W-121W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ west of 128.5W, and within 60 nm north of the the ITCZ between 128W-135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for upcoming northern Gulf of California gale conditions. Aside from the expected gale conditions in the northern Gulf of California, the same tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California associated to a thermal trough will lead to fresh to strong northwest winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California Norte through Sun night before diminishing, and moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California Sur also through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to around 17 ft over the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia Sun and Sun night and to around 13 ft south of Punta Eugenia Sun through Mon as a set of long- period northwest to north moves through those waters. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are over the central Gulf of California and light to gentle variable winds are over the southern portion. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the central portion and 3 to 5 ft over the southern portion. Light to gentle winds along with seas of about 3 to 5 ft in long-period south to southwest swell are over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, winds will diminish over the waters west of Baja California on Mon. The northwest swell will slowly subside going into the middle part of the week. The light to gentle winds and seas over the remainder of the offshore waters will change little going into the middle part of the week under a rather weak pressure pattern. Moderate to east to southeast winds are expected across the outer waters of the Tehuantepec region Tue and Tue night along with moderate seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are in the Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure pattern is maintaining light to gentle southwest to west winds south of the monsoon trough and light to gentle northwest to north winds north of the trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in long-periosd south to southwest swell over these waters. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region at night through the period. Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the middle part of the upcoming week. Numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and heavy rain producing low visibilities, will remain over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through at least the early part of the week. At the same time, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of Colombia. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected A broad ridge stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high located well north of the area near 39N138W to near 20N115W. This feature continues to dominate the wind pattern north of the ITCZ. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are over the northeast part of the area along with seas of 8 to 12 ft in large northwest swell. Latest scatterometer data passes reveal fresh trades from 08N to 26N west of about 133W and from 08N to 23N between 120W and 133W. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 ft, as noted in altimeter satellite data passes, in mixed northeast and northwest long-period swell. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are south of the ITCZ, where seas are 5 to 7 ft per latest altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast, the previously described ridge will move little through Sun night maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W and keeping the fresh to strong northwest to north winds over the northeast part until Mon morning. The large northwest swell over the northeast part of the area will decay going into the middle part of the week allowing for seas to lower below 8 ft. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC170910CCA_C_KWBC_20260517091112_32440682-399-TWDEP.txt ****0000006536**** AXPZ20 KNHC 170910 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 17 2026 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressures in northwest Mexico and in the Gulf of California will induce fresh to strong south to southwest winds in the northern and central Gulf of California tonight through early on Sun before diminishing to mostly fresh speeds through Sun afternoon. These winds will quickly increase to near gale to gale-force in the northern portion of the Gulf Sun night into early on Mon. Seas are expected to build to around 9 ft with these winds. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure weakens allowing for the culprit tight pressure gradient to slacken. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpc.php for more detail. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia westward to across southern Costa Rica, then to the coast at 09N84W to 06.5N93W and to 07N101W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N114W to 07N124W to 06N132W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 79W-84W, and from 01N to 05N between 81W-88W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 116W-121W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ west of 128.5W, and within 60 nm north of the the ITCZ between 128W-135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for upcoming northern Gulf of California gale conditions. Aside from the expected gale conditions in the northern Gulf of California, the same tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California associated to a thermal trough will lead to fresh to strong northwest winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California Norte through Sun night before diminishing, and moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California Sur also through Sun night. Seas are expected to build to around 17 ft over the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia Sun and Sun night and to around 13 ft south of Punta Eugenia Sun through Mon as a set of long- period northwest to north swell moves through those waters. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are over the central Gulf of California and light to gentle variable winds are over the southern portion. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the central portion and 3 to 5 ft over the southern portion. Light to gentle winds along with seas of about 3 to 5 ft in long-period south to southwest swell are over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, winds will diminish over the waters west of Baja California on Mon. The northwest swell will slowly subside going into the middle part of the week. The light to gentle winds and seas over the remainder of the offshore waters will change little going into the middle part of the week under a rather weak pressure pattern. Moderate to east to southeast winds are expected across the outer waters of the Tehuantepec region Tue and Tue night along with moderate seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are in the Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure pattern is maintaining light to gentle southwest to west winds south of the monsoon trough and light to gentle northwest to north winds north of the trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in long-periosd south to southwest swell over these waters. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region at night through the period. Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the middle part of the upcoming week. Numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and heavy rain producing low visibilities, will remain over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through at least the early part of the week. At the same time, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of Colombia. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected A broad ridge stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high located well north of the area near 39N138W to near 20N115W. This feature continues to dominate the wind pattern north of the ITCZ. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are over the northeast part of the area along with seas of 8 to 12 ft in large northwest swell. Latest scatterometer data passes reveal fresh trades from 08N to 26N west of about 133W and from 08N to 23N between 120W and 133W. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 ft, as noted in altimeter satellite data passes, in mixed northeast and northwest long-period swell. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are south of the ITCZ, where seas are 5 to 7 ft per latest altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast, the previously described ridge will move little through Sun night maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W and keeping the fresh to strong northwest to north winds over the northeast part until Mon morning. The large northwest swell over the northeast part of the area will decay going into the middle part of the week allowing for seas to lower below 8 ft. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC170954_C_KWBC_20260517095512_32440682-400-TWDEP.txt ****0000007478**** AXPZ20 KNHC 170954 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun May 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressures in northwest Mexico and in the Gulf of California will induce fresh to strong south to southwest winds in the northern and central Gulf of California through late this morning, then diminish to mostly fresh speeds for this afternoon. These winds will quickly increase to near gale to gale-force in the northern portion of the Gulf tonight into early on Mon. Seas are expected to build to around 9 ft with these winds. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure weakens allowing for the culprit tight pressure gradient to slacken leading to winds diminishing. Significant Swell Event for the NE Part of the Area: Large long-period northwest swell with a period of 13-15 seconds has started to propagate through the waters west of Baja California Norte, roughly north of 26N between 117W and 126W. The swell will continue to spread south-southeastward across the rest of the waters of Baja California through Mon morning. It is forecast to build significant wave heights to a peak of about 16 ft over the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia today and tonight, and to a peak of around 13 ft over the waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro through early on Mon. The swell is forecast to slowly decay going into the middle part of the week. Marine interests transiting through these waters are urged to use caution, and to stay up to date with the latest forecast. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia westward to along the northern coast of Panama and to across southern Costa Rica, then to the coast at 09N84W to 05N94W and to 06N101W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N111W to 07N120W to 06N132W and to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 09N between 82W-85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N to 06N between 85W-89W, and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 132W-137W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 89W-92W, and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 114W-120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above regarding a brief episode of gale winds in the northern Gulf of California tonight, and for details on a late-season significant swell event for waters west of Baja California Norte. Aside from the expected gale conditions in the northern Gulf of California and the significant swell for west of Baja California, the same tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California associated to a thermal trough will lead to fresh to strong northwest winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California Norte through tonight before diminishing, and moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California Sur also through tonight. Seas are expected to build to around 16 ft over the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia Sun and Sun night and to around 13 ft south of Punta Eugenia through early on Mon as a set of long-period northwest to north swell moves through those waters as described above under Special Features. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are over the central Gulf of California, while light to gentle variable winds are over the southern portion. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the central portion and 3 to 5 ft over the southern portion. Light to gentle winds along with seas of about 3 to 5 ft in long-period south to southwest swell are over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, winds will diminish over the waters west of Baja California on Mon. The northwest swell will slowly subside going into the middle part of the week. The light to gentle winds and seas over the remainder of the offshore waters will change little going into the middle part of the week under a rather weak pressure pattern. Moderate to east to southeast winds are expected across the outer waters of the Tehuantepec region Tue and Tue night along with moderate seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are in the Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure pattern is maintaining light to gentle southwest to west winds south of the monsoon trough and light to gentle northwest to north winds north of the trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in long-periosd south to southwest swell over these waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region at night well into the upcoming week. Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the upcoming week. Numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and heavy rain producing low visibilities, will remain over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through at least the early part of the week. At the same time, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of Colombia. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high located well north of the area near 39N138W to near 19N115W. This feature continues to dominate the wind pattern north of the ITCZ. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are over the northeast part of the area along with seas of 8 to 12 ft in large northwest swell. Overnight scatterometer data passes depict fresh trades generally from 08N to 26N west of about 133W, and also from 08N to 23N between 120W and 133W. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 ft, as noted in altimeter satellite data passes, in mixed northeast and northwest long-period swell. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are south of the ITCZ, where seas are 5 to 7 ft per latest altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast, the previously described ridge will move little through late tonight maintaining a tight pressure gradient roughly over the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W and keeping the fresh to strong northwest to north winds over this same area until Mon morning. The seas of 7 to 9 ft will begin to slowly diminish in coverage starting Tue. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC170958_C_KWBC_20260517095846_9109880-3403-TWDEP.txt ****0000007495**** AXPZ20 KNHC 170958 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun May 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressures in northwest Mexico and in the Gulf of California will induce fresh to strong south to southwest winds in the northern and central Gulf of California through late this morning, then diminish to mostly fresh speeds for this afternoon. These winds will quickly increase to near gale to gale-force in the northern portion of the Gulf tonight into early on Mon. Seas are expected to build to around 9 ft with these winds. Conditions will improve on Mon as the high pressure weakens allowing for the culprit tight pressure gradient to slacken leading to winds diminishing. Significant Swell Event for the NE Part of the Area: Large long-period northwest swell with a period of 13-15 seconds has started to propagate through the waters west of Baja California Norte, roughly north of 26N between 117W and 126W. The swell will continue to spread south-southeastward across the rest of the waters of Baja California through Mon morning. It is forecast to build significant wave heights to a peak of about 16 ft over the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia today and tonight, and to a peak of around 13 ft over the waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro through early on Mon. The swell is forecast to slowly decay going into the middle part of the week. Marine interests transiting through these waters are urged to use caution, and to stay up to date with the latest forecast. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia westward to along the northern coast of Panama and to across southern Costa Rica, then to the coast at 09N84W to 05N94W and to 06N101W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N111W to 07N120W to 06N132W and to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 04N to 09N between 82W-85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 01N to 06N between 85W-89W, and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 132W-137W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 89W-92W, and within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 114W-120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above regarding a brief episode of gale winds in the northern Gulf of California tonight, and for details on a late-season significant swell event for waters west of Baja California Norte. Aside from the expected gale conditions in the northern Gulf of California and the significant swell for west of Baja California, the same tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California associated to a thermal trough will lead to fresh to strong northwest winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California Norte through tonight before diminishing, and moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California Sur also through tonight. Seas are expected to build to around 16 ft over the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia Sun and Sun night and to around 13 ft south of Punta Eugenia through early on Mon as a set of long-period northwest to north swell moves through those waters as described above under Special Features. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are over the central Gulf of California, while light to gentle variable winds are over the southern portion. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the central portion and 3 to 5 ft over the southern portion. Light to gentle winds along with seas of about 3 to 5 ft in long-period south to southwest swell are over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, winds will diminish over the waters west of Baja California on Mon. The northwest swell will slowly subside going into the middle part of the week. The light to gentle winds and seas over the remainder of the offshore waters will change little going into the middle part of the week under a rather weak pressure pattern. Moderate to east to southeast winds are expected across the outer waters of the Tehuantepec region Tue and Tue night along with moderate seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are in the Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure pattern is maintaining light to gentle southwest to west winds south of the monsoon trough, and light to gentle northwest to north winds north of the trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in long-periosd south to southwest swell over these waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region at night well into the upcoming week. Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the upcoming week. Numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and heavy rain producing low visibilities, will remain over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through at least the early part of the week. At the same time, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of Colombia. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high center that is located well north of the area near 39N138W to near 19N115W. This feature continues to dominate the wind pattern north of the ITCZ. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are over the northeast part of the area along with seas of 8 to 12 ft in large northwest swell. Overnight scatterometer data passes depict fresh trades generally from 08N to 26N west of about 133W, and also from 08N to 23N between 120W and 133W. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 ft, as noted in altimeter satellite data passes, in mixed northeast and northwest long-period swell. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are south of the ITCZ, where seas are 5 to 7 ft per latest altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast, the previously described ridge will move little through late tonight maintaining a tight pressure gradient roughly over the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W and keeping the fresh to strong northwest to north winds over this same area until Mon morning. The seas of 7 to 9 ft will begin to slowly diminish in coverage starting Tue. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################