--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-08-20 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC200256_C_KWBC_20260820025635_31523192-1267-TWDEP.txt ****0000009137**** AXPZ20 KNHC 200256 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Aug 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Pacific (EP90): A broad area of low pressure, Invest, EP90, is located well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands near 10.5N140W. Associated winds are currently 20 to 30 kt and seas are 8 to 10 ft. This low is along a tropical wave at 140W. The system is producing showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 16N between 131W and 140W. Environmental conditions appear favorable for further development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and crosses into the Central Pacific tonight. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the progress of this system. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 95.5W from 02N to 16N near the western Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 92W and 99W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 109W south of 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 101W and 113W. An area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of the coast of southern Mexico around the end of the week. Gradual development of this system is likely thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance in the next 7 days. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and seas to impact the outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. The axis of a tropical wave is near 140W, and is described above in the Special Features section above regarding the possibility of tropical cyclone formation. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia at 10N74W to 08N91W to 1006 mb low pressure near 09N110W to 06N122W to low pressure, Invest EP90, near 10.5N140W. Other than the convection described above with three tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 77W and 94W, from 10N to 17N between 99W and 107W, from 03N to 07N between 113W and 132W, and from 07N to 14N between 122W and 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical development offshore Mexico this upcoming weekend, and for related convection. High pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south- southeastward into the regional waters to just northwest of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient over the waters from southwestern Mexico to Baja California has weakened today, allowing for moderate or weaker winds across those waters, including in the Gulf of California, except lingering fresh winds in the northern Gulf. Meanwhile, a tight pressure gradient continues over the Gulf of Tehuantepec where the northern portion of a tropical wave is moving by, and is producing strong N to NE gap winds in the Gulf. Resultant seas of 5 to 7 ft are present there. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the remainder of these offshore waters, and 1 to 3 ft inside the Gulf of California. For the forecast, northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to strong north winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each evening and night through the next several days, with seas occasionally building to rough. Low pressure across Baja California will sustain a southerly wind flow across the Gulf of California waters, with fresh winds expected across northern portions there gradually diminishing later tonight. Winds may freshen across the Gulf of California Sat night through Sun night. Looking ahead, winds and seas are expected to build across the outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico by Fri into the upcoming weekend in association with a developing area of low pressure, expected to develop outside of the offshore waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on any convection. Fresh to locally strong easterly gap winds continue across the Papagayo region. Seas there are 5 to 8 ft with these winds, with the highest seas extending well downwind to near 11N92W where moderate to fresh winds also extend to. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, and moderate south of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh south of the Equator, highest near the entrance of the Gulf of Guayaquil where they are locally strong2. Seas across most of the remainder of the waters north of the Equator are 4 to 6 ft in mixed cross equatorial S and SW swell, and 7 to 9 ft in S to SW swell south of 02N, highest south through southwest of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the northwestern Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over Central America will lead to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong winds over the Papagayo region each evening and night through the early next week, resulting in rough seas at times. Moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through at least early next week. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough and across the Galapagos waters will gradually diminish tonight through Thu, then remain gentle to moderate through the weekend. Cross- equatorial SW swell moving into the regional waters will continue to merge with larger S to SE swell dominating the southern Pacific waters well south of the Galapagos to produce rough seas 8 ft and greater south of 02N, and moderate seas elsewhere through Thu before seas subside. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves section above for information on two systems that have the potential for tropical cyclone formation, and any associated convection currently present leading to locally higher winds and seas. High pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south- southeastward into the regional waters to just northwest of the Revillagigedo Islands, however it is now disrupted by a surface trough analyzed from 30N135W to 23N140W. Away from Invest EP90 along 140W and exiting into the Central Pacific basin, moderate to fresh winds are near a 1006 mb low pressure at 09N110W along a tropical wave at 110W, from 10N to 14N between 108W and 112W where seas are locally rough. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds extend well downwind from a Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event to near 10N100W. Seas are locally rough there as well. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, except moderate to fresh south of 06N. Seas are 8 to 10 ft near Invest EP90, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere north of 12N, 6 to 8 ft from 07N to 12N, and 7 to 9 ft in mixed SE and SW swell south of 07N. For the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the features described above will bring some increasing winds and seas to area waters south of 20N, as they move south of the current ridge in place. Invest EP90 near 140W will move away from the waters into the Central Pacific basin through Thu. Away from these features, little change is expected in marine weather through the next several days, except for the rough seas over the southern waters which are forecast to subside by the start of the weekend. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC200706_C_KWBC_20260820070650_4522426-1097-TWDEP.txt ****0000009157**** AXPZ20 KNHC 200706 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Aug 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0610 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Pacific (EP90): An area of low pressure, Invest EP90, has fully crossed over into the Central Pacific basin to the west of 140W, currently near 11N141W. While outer winds and seas still extend just to the east of 140W into the discussion waters, winds east of 140W are forecast to remain below warning criteria. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is just east of the area over portions of western Colombia and moving from the central to the western Caribbean Sea near 76W, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 77W and 89W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 96.5W from 01N to 17N just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec over portions of Oaxaca, or a few hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico, is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 89W and 98W. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance in the next 7 days. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and seas to impact the outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico. The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W from 01N to 16N, moving westward at around 15 to 20 kt. A broad area of low pressure associated with this tropical wave near 08N111W is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred nautical miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 106W and 115W. Winds are currently fresh with locally rough seas there. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally favorable for gradual development over the weekend as the system moves westward or west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details on both systems. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia at 11N75W to 08.5N90W to 1009 mb low pressure near 08N111W to 07N125W to 10N140W. Other than the convection described above with three tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 129W and 133W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 130W and 140W, mainly related to Invest EP90 which has crossed over into the Central Pacific basin. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical development offshore Mexico this upcoming weekend, and for related convection. A tight pressure gradient continues over the Gulf of Tehuantepec where the northern portion of a tropical wave is just passing by, and is producing strong N to NE gap winds in the Gulf. Recent ASCAT scatterometer data confirmed these winds. Resultant seas of 5 to locally 8 ft. Across the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico, typical ridging has been disrupted by a surface trough from Baja California Norte to the southwest resulting in a rather weak pressure gradient across the region and mainly light to gentle winds, except moderate from near Cabo Corrientes up the coast toward the entrance of the Gulf of California as seen by the same ASCAT data. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the waters away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 1 to 3 ft inside the Gulf of California. A thunderstorm complex is evident on conventional infrared satellite imagery near the boast of western Oaxaca and Guerrero. For the forecast, northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to strong north winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight into the early morning hours through the next several days, with seas occasionally building to rough. Low pressure across Baja California will sustain a southerly wind flow across the Gulf of California waters. Winds may freshen across the Gulf of California Sat night through Sun night, and also freshen nearshore Baja California Fri night through Sat as the pressure gradient tightens a bit. Looking ahead, winds and seas are expected to build across the outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico by tonight into early next week in association with a developing area of low pressure moving by just outside of the offshore waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on any convection. Recent ASCAT scatterometer passes missed the immediate Gulf of Papagayo where fresh to strong easterly gap winds are likely occurring, however they did measure moderate to fresh easterly winds well downwind across the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala to the south of 12.5N, with seas of 5 to locally 8 ft from Offshore Gulf of Papagayo to near 11N96W. Mainly moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, locally fresh near the border of Peru an Ecuador close to the entrance to the Gulf of Guayaquil. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters north of the Equator, and 6 to 8 ft south of the Equator, except to 9 ft near the Gulf of Guayaquil as measured by a recent Sentinel-3B altimeter pass. Some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the waters south of Panama to off Costa Rica, as well as offshore Guatemala due to the passing tropical wave there, described more above. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the northwestern Caribbean and relatively lower pressure over Central America will lead to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong winds over the Papagayo region each evening and night through the early next week, resulting in rough seas at times. Moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through at least early next week. Any lingering moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of the monsoon trough and across the Galapagos waters will gradually diminish today. Mainly moderate seas will prevail away from the Gulf of Papagayo area through the next several days, dominated by long period southerly swells. Seas may be locally rough south of the Equator early today. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves section above for information on systems that have the potential for tropical cyclone formation, and any associated convection currently present leading to locally higher winds and seas. High pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south- southeastward into the regional waters to just northwest of the Revillagigedo Islands, however it is now disrupted by a surface trough analyzed from 30N135W to 23N140W which was nicely evident in a recent ASCAT scatterometer pass. Outer fresh to strong winds and 8 to 11 ft seas associated with Invest EP90 now west of the area in the Central Pacific basin are impacting the waters from 11N to 16N between 137W and 140W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found elsewhere from 14N to 23N between 128W and 140W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are found south of 06N to the east of 120W and south of 02N to the west of 120W. Rough seas over the southern waters are decaying, now over the waters south of 02N and east of 130W, up to 9 ft south of the Equator and east of 110W. For the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the features described above will bring some increasing winds and seas to area waters south of 25N, as they move south of the current ridge in place. Away from these features, little change is expected in marine weather through the next several days, except for the rough seas over the southern waters which are forecast to fully subside to moderate levels by the start of the weekend. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC201614_C_KWBC_20260820161540_31523192-1307-TWDEP.txt ****0000008049**** AXPZ20 KNHC 201614 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Aug 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is entering eastern portions of the Tropical Pacific basin along 80W, north of 04N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 11N between 77W and 86W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W from 05N to 18N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection stretches from 06N to 14.5N between 90W and 105W. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance in the next 7 days. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and seas will impact the outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico. The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W from 05N to 16N, moving westward at around 15 to 20 kt. A broad area of low pressure associated with this tropical wave near 09.5N111.5W is producing scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection from 04N to 12N between 107W and 117W. Fresh to locally strong winds are found within 120 nm of the N semicircle to the low, with locally rough seas there. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally favorable for gradual development of this system over the weekend as it moves westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details on these systems. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 07N81W to 1007 mb low pressure near 09.5N111.5W to 06N130W to beyond 10N140W. Other than the convection described above with three tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 14.5N between 87W and 107W, and from 03N to 10N between 117W and 136W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 136W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on a tropical wave that has a potential for tropical development offshore Mexico this upcoming weekend, and for related convection. A modest pressure gradient continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec area, where the northern portion of a tropical wave has just passed by, and is producing strong N to NE gap winds in the Gulf and downstream to near 14N96W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across the area. Across the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico, typical ridging has been disrupted by a surface trough from Baja California Norte to the southwest resulting in a rather weak pressure gradient across the region, and mainly light to gentle N to NE winds, except moderate from near Cabo Corrientes up the coast toward the entrance of the Gulf of California. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the waters away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 1 to 3 ft inside the Gulf of California. An upper level trough extending offshore of SW Mexico continues to support clusters of strong thunderstorms along the coasts and nearshore waters of western Guerrero and Michoacan, and continue to shift gradually westward. For the forecast, northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to strong north winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight into the early morning hours through the next several days, with seas occasionally building to rough. Low pressure across Baja California has shifted eastward to along the coast of mainland Mexico, and will sustain NW to W gap winds across much of the Gulf of California waters through Fri night before southerly wind flow returns. High pressure will begin to build back modestly across the Baja offshore waters Fri afternoon through Sat night to produce a more typical moderate to fresh NW wind flow there. Looking ahead, winds and seas are expected to build across the outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico by tonight into early next week in association with a developing area of low pressure moving by just outside of the offshore waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on any convection. Recent satellite scatterometer data shows fresh to strong NE to E gap extending across the papagayo region to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Fresh easterly winds then continue downstream, and S of 12.5N, across the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala, where seas are 6 to 7 ft. Mainly moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, locally fresh near the border of Peru and Ecuador close to the entrance to the Gulf of Guayaquil. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters north of 03N, and 6 to 8 ft south of 03N. Clusters of strong thunderstorms are over the waters along and south of Panama to offshore Costa Rica, due to the passing tropical wave there, described above. For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf of America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong winds over the Papagayo region each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through at least early next week. South of the monsoon trough, winds will gradually diminish and remain light to gentle through the weekend. Mainly moderate seas will prevail away from the Gulf of Papagayo area through the next several days. Southeasterly swell producing rough seas across the southern waters will subside today through Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves section above for information on systems that have the potential for tropical cyclone formation, and any associated convection currently present leading to locally higher winds and seas. High pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge south- southeastward into the regional waters to offshore of Baja Surf. Fresh to strong easterly winds and 8 to 10 ft seas associated with newly named Tropical Depression Two-C in the Central Pacific basin are impacting the waters from 12N to 19N between 137W and 140W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are found elsewhere from 14N to 23N between 128W and 140W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are found south of 06N to the east of 120W and south of 02N to the west of 120W. Rough seas over the southern waters are gradually subsiding, now over the waters south of 03N, up to 9 ft south of the Equator and east of 110W. For the forecast, regardless of tropical development, the features described above will bring some increasing winds and seas to area waters south of 25N, as they move south of the current ridge in place. Away from these features, little change is expected in marine weather through the next several days, except for the rough seas over the southern waters which are forecast to fully subside by the start of the weekend. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################