--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-02-19 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC190140_C_KWBC_20260219014122_29294990-8208-TWDEP.txt ****0000006809**** AXPZ20 KNHC 190140 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Feb 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Large NW Swell: New large and significant swell with seas of 12 ft or greater is just N of 26N and propagating southward, while rough seas cover a large area ahead of it, across the waters N of 05N and W of 110W. Seas are peaking around 15 ft along 30N between 120W and 130W. Seas of 12 ft or greater will gradually decay below 12 ft by Thu evening. Looking ahead, another significant and large NW swell event is possible in the NW waters late in the upcoming weekend into early next week. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 10N86W to 02N98W. The ITCZ extends from 02N98W to 02S120W, continuing W of the area. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 83W and 92W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure centered NW of the area extends a ridge from NW to SE across the offshore waters. A locally tight pressure gradient between the ridging and troughing over Mexico supports fresh to locally strong NW-N winds across nearshore Baja California. Fresh to near-gale SW winds prevail over the northern Gulf of California from 29N to 31N due to the tail end of a cold front moving through and reaching from 31N112.5W to 30N115W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft there. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are elsewhere N of 19N, with light go gentle winds elsewhere. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft in old NW swell is found offshore Baja California Sur, with new NW swell of 8 to 14 ft moving in across the waters off Baja California Norte. Mainly moderate seas are across the remainder of the waters, except slight in the central and southern Gulf of California, as well as offshore southern Mexico. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build in across the waters through the end of the week, producing fresh to locally strong northerly winds nearshore Baja California through early Fri. Strong to near-gale force SW wind over the northern Gulf of California will prevail through the evening. Then, fresh to strong SW winds will return over the northern Gulf of Baja California on Thu night and Fri. Fresh winds will dominate the central and southern Gulf of California tonight through early Thu, then again Sat through early Mon due to a locally tight pressure gradient. NW swell will continue to build across the waters of Baja California tonight through the end of the week, decaying during the upcoming weekend. Looking ahead, long range model guidance indicates the potential for at least a strong gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late in the upcoming weekend into early next week, although uncertainty exists being so far out in time. Winds have the potential to reach minimal storm force Mon night. Very large seas are likely to accompany this gap wind event. Please stay tuned as we get closer to this next potential event. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E offshore winds prevail across the Papagayo region, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are occurring across the Gulf of Panama and veer NE and pass south of the Azuero Peninsula. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere, with seas 2 to 4 ft. Some active convection is present offshore of Costa Rica and western Panama as described above. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate seas will pulse across the Papagayo region as high pressure builds across Central America from the north, continuing through Thu night, then become moderate to fresh thereafter. Fresh to near-gale winds may return there late in the weekend into early next week. Moderate N to NE winds will pulse to locally fresh from the Gulf of Panama to south of the Azuero Peninsula through the evening, returning early next week. A significant gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will send outer fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas into the far offshore waters of Guatemala by early next week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change little through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on significant NW swell forecast for the northern waters, and for another possible event late in the upcoming weekend and into early next week. A weakening cold front is moving over far NW mainland Mexico to offshore Baja California Norte. Moderate to fresh NW winds follow the front. Very rough swells are behind the front as described above. A ridge extends across the waters from near 30N140W to offshore SW Mexico. Deep layered troughing prevails just W of 140W to the W-central waters with scattered moderate convection from 15N to 28N between 132W and 140W. Associated fresh to near gale- force winds cover the waters roughly from 13N to 30N mainly between 130W and 140W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. For seas, rough seas cover the waters from 06N to 30N between 114W and 140W. Very rough seas are from 12N to 22N between 130W and 140W, with moderate seas across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, high pressure will build across the waters N of the ITCZ while the deep layered troughing persists in the W-central waters near or just W of 140W. This scenario will support a broad area of fresh to near gale-force trades N of the ITCZ to near 24N and W of 130W through early Fri, along with rough to very rough seas. Expect active showers and thunderstorms to accompany these increasing trades. Marine conditions should improve by the end of the week and into the weekend as the disturbance dissipates and the pressure gradient weakens. New, large and significant swells may move into the NW waters by the end of the weekend and into early next week. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC190734_C_KWBC_20260219073515_16515500-7869-TWDEP.txt ****0000006930**** AXPZ20 KNHC 190734 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Feb 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Large NW Swell: Large and significant NW-N swell with seas of 12 ft or greater is N of 25N between 117W and 136W, while rough seas cover a large area ahead of it, across most of the waters N of 05N and W of 110W. Seas are peaking around 14 ft along 30N between 119W and 128W. These seas will gradually decay below 12 ft this afternoon. Looking ahead, another significant and large NW swell event is possible in the NW waters late in the upcoming weekend into early next week. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 10N85W to 00N108W. The ITCZ extends from 00N108W to 00N120W to 00N130W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 84W and 106W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The tail end of a cold front is over far NW mainland Mexico near 31N111W to across the northern Gulf of California and Baja California Norte near 28N118W. Otherwise, high pressure centered NW of the area extends a ridge from NW to SE across the offshore waters. A locally tight pressure gradient between the ridging and troughing over Mexico supports fresh to locally strong NW-N winds across nearshore Baja California. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are elsewhere N of 18N, with moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the waters. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft in old, decaying NW swell is found offshore Baja California Sur, with newer NW swell of 8 to 13 ft moving in across the waters off Baja California Norte. Mainly moderate seas are across the remainder of the waters, except slight in the central and southern Gulf of California, as well as offshore southern Mexico. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build in across the waters through the end of the week, producing fresh to locally strong northerly winds nearshore Baja California through Fri. Strong to near-gale force SW wind over the northern Gulf of California will develop over the northern Gulf of Baja California tonight into Fri. Fresh winds will dominate the central and southern Gulf of California through early today, then again Sat through early Mon due to a locally tight pressure gradient when they may pulse to strong. New NW swell will continue to build across the waters off Baja California today through the end of the week, decaying during the upcoming weekend. Looking ahead, model guidance indicates the potential for at least a strong gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late in the upcoming weekend into early next week as a potent cold front moves by to the N in the Gulf of America. Winds may have the potential to reach minimal storm force Mon night. Very large seas are likely to accompany this gap wind event, propagating well away from the source region. Please stay tuned as we get closer to this next potential event. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E offshore winds prevail across the Papagayo region, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are occurring across the Gulf of Panama and veer NE and pass south of the Azuero Peninsula. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere, with seas 2 to 4 ft. Some active convection is present offshore of Costa Rica as described above. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate seas will persist across the Papagayo region through the morning as high pressure builds across Central America from the north, with winds becoming moderate to fresh thereafter. Fresh to near- gale force winds may develop there late in the weekend into early next week as stronger high pressure builds down. Moderate N to NE winds will pulse to locally fresh from the Gulf of Panama to south of the Azuero Peninsula through the early morning, returning early next week. A significant gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will send outer fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas into the far offshore waters of Guatemala by early next week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change little through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on significant NW swell forecast for the northern waters, and for another possible event late in the upcoming weekend and into early next week. A weakening cold front is moving over far NW mainland Mexico to offshore Baja California Norte. Moderate to fresh NW winds follow the front, mainly over the Baja California offshore waters. Very rough swells are behind the front as described above. A ridge extends across the waters from near 30N140W to offshore SW Mexico. Deep layered troughing prevails just W of 140W to the W-central waters with scattered moderate convection from 13N to 30N between 125W and 140W. Associated fresh to near gale-force winds cover the waters roughly from 08N to 22N mainly between 115W and 140W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. For seas, rough seas cover most of the waters from 05N to 30N between 110W and 140W. Very rough seas are from 12N to 22N between 132W and 140W, with moderate seas across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, high pressure will build across the waters N of the ITCZ while the deep layered troughing persists in the W-central waters near or just W of 140W. This scenario will support a broad area of fresh to near gale-force trades N of the ITCZ to near 24N and W of 130W through early Fri morning, along with rough to very rough seas. Expect active showers and thunderstorms to continue to accompany these trades. Marine conditions should improve by the end of the week and into the weekend as the disturbance dissipates and the pressure gradient weakens. New, large and significant swells may move into the NW waters by the end of the weekend and into early next week. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################