--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-07-02 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC020403_C_KWBC_20260702040416_32440682-4255-TWDEP.txt ****0000005151**** AXPZ20 KNHC 020403 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jul 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 16.5N 127.0W at 02/0300 UTC, moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4 m extend up to 150 nm from the center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 16N to 20N between 124W and 129W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 07N to 25N between 120W and 130W. Douglas is expected to gradually turn to the northwest late this week, continuing similar speed. Slight strengthening is possible overnight before a steady weakening begins later on Thursday. Douglas is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Four-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 01N to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The axis of the wave is near 95W, and is moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 11N between 90W and 100W. A tropical wave is to the east of TS Douglas. The wave extends from 04N to 18N with axis near 119W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 20N between 115W and 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 05N100W to 12N119W. The ITCZ extends westward from 07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is from 00N to 11N east of 90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 11N between 100W and 109W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific, southeastward to the Baja California offshores. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters. Fresh to locally strong N gap winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 5 to 6 ft seas in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere including the Gulf of California. Seas are moderate in SW swell in the remainder offshores, except slight in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the surface ridge will drift SW and weaken through the remainder of the week, producing gentle to moderate winds for the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate NW swell moving across these waters will maintain moderate seas into Thu night. Fresh to strong N gap winds will pulse nightly in the Tehuantepec region through the weekend. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 92W. Seas are 7 to 8 ft across this area. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in cross-equatorial SW swell dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into the weekend, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep moderate to locally rough seas near the Galapagos Islands through tonight. Thunderstorms will persist for the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Douglas A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific southeastward to the Baja California offshore waters, and is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds, and 6 to 7 ft seas in N swell, north of 22N and west of 130W, outside the vicinity of Tropical Storm Douglas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere, except near Douglas and the areas of convection described above. For the forecast, Douglas will move to 17.2N 127.2W Thu morning, 18.4N 127.4W Thu evening, weaken to a remnant low near 19.7N 127.8W Fri morning, 20.9N 128.3W Fri evening, 21.8N 129.1W Sat morning, and 22.5N 130.2W Sat evening. Douglas will dissipate late Sun. $$ Ramos --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC020934_C_KWBC_20260702093519_32440682-4271-TWDEP.txt ****0000005031**** AXPZ20 KNHC 020934 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jul 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 17.0N 127.1W at 02/0900 UTC, moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4.5 m extend up to 150 nm from the center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 16N to 20N between 124W and 129W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 07N to 25N between 120W and 130W. Douglas is expected to gradually turn to the northwest later tonight through the end of the week. Although some slight strengthening is possible the next several hours, a weakening trend is forecast tonight into Friday. Douglas is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Four-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 01N to the Oaxaca offshore waters. The axis of the wave is near 96W, and is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 13N between 90W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 04N97W to 10N120W. The ITCZ extends westward from 07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is from 01N to 12N east of 90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 102W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific, southeastward to the Baja California offshores. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters. Fresh to locally strong N gap winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 6 to 7 ft seas in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere including the Gulf of California. Seas are moderate in SW swell in the remainder offshores, except slight in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the surface ridge will drift SW and weaken through the remainder of the week, producing gentle to moderate winds for the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate NW swell moving across these waters will maintain moderate seas through tonight. Fresh to strong N gap winds will pulse nightly in the Tehuantepec region through early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in cross-equatorial SW swell dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep moderate seas near the Galapagos Islands through Mon night. Thunderstorms will persist for the offshore waters between Costa Rica and Colombia through at least the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Douglas A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific southeastward to the Baja California offshore waters, and is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds, and 6 to 7 ft seas in N swell, north of 22N and west of 130W, outside the vicinity of Tropical Storm Douglas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere, except near Douglas and the areas of convection described above. For the forecast, Douglas will move to 17.8N 127.3W this afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 19.0N 127.6W Fri morning, become a remnant low and move to 20.2N 128.2W Fri afternoon, 21.2N 128.8W Sat morning, 22.1N 129.7W Sat afternoon, and 23.0N 130.6W Sun morning. Douglas will dissipate early Mon. $$ Ramos --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC021536_C_KWBC_20260702153721_32440682-4297-TWDEP.txt ****0000006251**** AXPZ20 KNHC 021536 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jul 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 17.4N 127.1W at 1500 UTC, moving north at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4.5 m extend up to 150 nm from the center. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 16.5N to 20N between 124.5W and 129W. Douglas is expected to continue northward today and gradually turn to the northwest tonight through Fri, and gradually weaken as is encounters an unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic environment. Douglas is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight, a post- tropical remnant low on Fri, and dissipate over the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Four-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 98W, south of 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described below in the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section. A tropical wave has entered the eastern tropical Pacific, and is along 83W, south of 20N in the NW Caribbean, moving west at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is also described below in the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75.5W to 05.5N79W to 09N87W to 05.5N100W to 15N116.5W, then resumes south of Douglas from 13N127W to 08.5N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N E of 90W, and from 00N to 12N between 90W and 107W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 06.5N between 107W and 122W and within 180 nm S of a line from 19N122W to 13N127W to 09N135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific, southeastward through 30N124W, then weakly south-southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters, except to 7 ft across the far outer waters of Baja Norte. Fresh to locally strong N gap winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec to 14.5N, where seas are 6 to 7 ft seas in SW swell. Gentle to moderate SW to S winds continue across the northern Gulf of California, where seas are 3 ft or less. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, including the remainder of the Gulf of California. Seas are moderate in SW swell in the remainder offshores, except slight in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the surface ridge will drift SW and weaken through the remainder of the week, producing gentle to moderate winds for the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate NW swell moving across these waters will maintain moderate seas through through the weekend, as it mixes with cross-equatorial SW swell. Fresh to strong N gap winds will pulse nightly in the Tehuantepec region through early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. Gentle northerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in cross- equatorial SW swell dominate waters S of 03N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Scattered to numerous strong convection continues across the waters N of 05N from Colombia to offshore of Guatemala, producing strong gusty winds and locally rough seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will dominate area seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to the S of 05N through Mon, increasing to near 8 ft near the Galapagos Islands Mon night. Scattered thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters through at least Sun as a pair of tropical waves move through the region. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Douglas. A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific southeastward through 30N124W, then weakly south-southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong winds within 300 nm to the N and NW of Douglas, where seas are 8 to 11 ft. Elsewhere south of the ridge, moderate to fresh NE to E winds, and 6 to 7 ft seas in N swell prevail north of 22N and west of 120W, outside the vicinity of Tropical Storm Douglas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere, except near Douglas and the areas of convection described above. For the forecast, the ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week. Douglas will move northward to 18.2N 127.3W late this afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 19.5N 127.7W Fri morning, then become a remnant low near 20.6N 128.3W late Fri afternoon, and continue northwestward and gradually dissipate through late Sun or Mon. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC022121_C_KWBC_20260702212355_9109880-7361-TWDEP.txt ****0000006627**** AXPZ20 KNHC 022121 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 18.0N 127.4W at 2100 UTC, moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4.0 m extend up to 100 nm from the center. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 17.5N to 20.5N between 126W and 129W. Douglas is expected to continue to gradually turn toward the northwest tonight through Fri, and gradually weaken as is encounters an unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic environment. Douglas is forecast to remain a tropical storm tonight, and become a 30 kt post- tropical remnant low on Fri, then continue to move NW and gradually dissipate over the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Four-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 84W-85W, south of 20N in the NW Caribbean, moving west at 15 kt. Associated convection is described below in the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 98W-99W, south of 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is also described below in the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 05.5N79W to 09.5N86W to 05.5N98W to 08N104W to 04N111W, then resumes south of Douglas from 13.5N127W to 08.5N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 11N between 79W and 91W, and from 01N to 11.5N between 91W and 103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 103W and 116W and within 300 nm S of a line from 19N119W to 18N122W to 11.5N128W to 09N137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific well north of the Hawaiian Islands, southeastward through 30N135W, then weakly south- southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters. N to NE gap winds across Tehuantepec have become moderate to fresh this afternoon and extend to near 15N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell. Gentle to moderate SW to S winds continue across the northern Gulf of California, where seas are 3 ft or less. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, including the remainder of the Gulf of California. Seas are moderate in SW swell in the remainder offshores, except slight in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the surface ridge extending into the region will drift SW and weaken through early Sun, producing gentle to moderate winds across the Baja California waters, becoming locally fresh along the coasts each evening. As the remnants of Tropical Storm Douglas shift W of 135W on Sun, the ridge will build modestly across the Baja waters to produce moderate to fresh NW to N winds across those area waters Sun and Mon. NW swell moving across the Baja waters will maintain moderate seas through through the weekend, as it mixes with cross- equatorial SW swell. Fresh to strong N gap winds will pulse nightly in the Tehuantepec region through Sun. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. Gentle southerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in cross- equatorial SW swell dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Scattered to numerous strong convection continues across the waters N of 04.5N from Colombia to offshore of Guatemala, producing strong gusty winds and locally rough seas. For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters through at least Sun as a pair of tropical waves move through the region. Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will dominate area seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to the S of 05N through Mon, increasing to near 8 ft near the Galapagos Islands Sun night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Douglas. A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific well north of the Hawaiian Islands, southeastward through 30N135W, then weakly south- southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong winds within 300 nm to the N and NW of Douglas, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere south of the ridge, moderate to fresh NE to E winds, and 6 to 7 ft seas in N swell prevail north of 17N and west of 120W, outside the vicinity of Tropical Storm Douglas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere, except near Douglas and the areas of convection described above. Mixed SE and cross-equatorial SW swell are producing seas of 7 to 8 ft S of 05N and W of 130W. For the forecast, the ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week. Douglas will move N-NW to near 18.8N 127.6W around midnight tonight, then weaken to a 30 kt remnant low near 20.0N 128.1W midday Fri, and continue northwestward and gradually dissipate through late Sun or Mon. $$ Stripling ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################