--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2025-12-12 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC120246_C_KWBC_20251212024702_29294990-2328-TWDEP.txt ****0000003678**** AXPZ20 KNHC 120246 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Dec 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N127W. The ITCZ continues from 08N127W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 105W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near gale force gap winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with rough seas. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends from high pressure N of the area to across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough over western Mexico is supporting moderate winds in the central and southern Gulf of California, as well as near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in long period mixed swells are noted across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with slight to moderate seas in the Gulf of California and nearshore SW Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning, weakening to moderate to fresh through Sat. Winds over the Tehuantepec region will strengthen again on Sat evening and night, possibly reaching gale-force Sun night and prevailing through early Tue. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, locally fresh near Cabo Corrientes and in the Gulf of California through the end of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of 05N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of 05N. Seas are mainly moderate in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, moderate N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama. Otherwise, gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough over the next several days, except pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo, locally strong at times. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail S of monsoon trough. Moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are expected over the regional waters through the weekend and into early next week. Seas may build offshore Guatemala by early next week due to a possible Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting moderate winds N of the ITCZ to around 20N and west of 110W. Moderate seas prevail over these waters. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters, except north of 20N and west of 125W where NW swell is generating rough seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, seas with the long period NW swell over the N central waters will subsiding by Fri. The pressure gradient may tighten by the end of the weekend with trades just N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ freshening into early next week. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC120909_C_KWBC_20251212091003_29294990-2343-TWDEP.txt ****0000003508**** AXPZ20 KNHC 120909 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Dec 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N128W. The ITCZ continues from 08N128W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 06N and E of 90W, and from 08N to 18N between 105W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near gale force gap winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with rough seas. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough over western Mexico is supporting moderate winds in the central Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in long period mixed swells are noted across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with slight to moderate seas in the Gulf of California and nearshore SW Mexico. For the forecast, strong to near gale northerly gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning, then weakening to moderate to fresh through Sat. Winds over the Tehuantepec region will strengthen again on Sat night, possibly reaching gale-force Sun night and prevailing through Tue. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are pulsing over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of 05N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of 05N. Seas are mainly moderate in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough over the next several days, except pulsing fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail S of monsoon trough. Moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are expected over the regional waters through the weekend and into early next week. Seas may build offshore Guatemala by early next week due to a possible Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting moderate winds N of the ITCZ to around 20N and west of 110W. Moderate seas prevail over these waters. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters, except north of 20N and west of 125W where NW swell is generating rough seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, seas with the long period NW swell over the N central waters will subside today. The pressure gradient may tighten by the end of the weekend with trades just N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ freshening into early next week. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC121430_C_KWBC_20251212143129_16515500-1954-TWDEP.txt ****0000003336**** AXPZ20 KNHC 121430 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Dec 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N96W to 09N113W to 07N124W. The ITCZ continues from 07N124W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N and E of 84W, and from 08N to 17N between 108W and 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong gap winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with rough seas. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough over western Mexico is supporting moderate winds in the central and southern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in long period mixed swells are noted across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with slight to moderate seas in the Gulf of California and nearshore SW Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to moderate to fresh through Sat. Winds over the Tehuantepec region will strengthen again on Sat, possibly reaching gale-force Sun night and prevailing through early Tue. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of 06N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of 06N. Seas are mainly moderate in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough over the next several days, except pulsing fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail S of monsoon trough. Moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are expected over the regional waters through the weekend and into early next week. Seas may build offshore Guatemala by early next week due to a possible Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate winds N of the ITCZ to around 20N and west of 110W. Moderate seas prevail over these waters. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters. For the forecast, the pressure gradient may tighten by the end of the weekend with trades just N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ freshening into early next week. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC122042_C_KWBC_20251212204306_29294990-2383-TWDEP.txt ****0000003419**** AXPZ20 KNHC 122042 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Dec 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N96W to 09.5N112W to 07N123W. The ITCZ continues from 07N123W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N and E of 86W, and from 07N to 16N between 110W and 118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh gap winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough over western Mexico is supporting gentle to locally moderate winds in the central and southern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in long period mixed swells are noted across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with slight to moderate seas in the Gulf of California and nearshore SW Mexico. For the forecast, winds over the Tehuantepec region will strengthen on Sat, possibly reaching gale-force Sun night and prevailing through early Tue. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of 07N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of 07N. Seas are mainly moderate in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough over the next several days, except pulsing fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail S of monsoon trough. Moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are expected over the regional waters through the weekend and into early next week. Seas may build offshore Guatemala by early next week due to a possible Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 28N128W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate winds N of the ITCZ to around 20N and west of 120W. A surface trough is analyzed from 13N114W to 09.6N116W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the surface trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds from 10N to 15N between 110W and 120W.Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters. For the forecast, the surface trough will shift westward over the next several days, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the vicinity of the trough. $$ AL ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################