--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-07-20 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC200002CCA_C_KWBC_20260720000251_9109880-8724-TWDEP.txt ****0000010651**** AXPZ20 KNHC 200002 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 19 2026 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto is centered near 12.4N 112.7W at 19/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently to 12 ft, or 4 m. The tropical cyclone's overall cloud pattern is gradually becoming more consolidated. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection from 09N to 13N between 112W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 14N to 17N between 107W and 112W. Fausto is forecast to achieve a west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Fausto is forecast to become a hurricane by Mon night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Six-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 23.2N 125.9W at 19/2100 UTC, moving north-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 22 ft, or 6.5 m. Satellite imagery shows that the earlier observed deep convection near the center has weakened since this morning. Presently, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 22N to 25N between 123W and 126W. Elida is expected to increase in forward speed as it turns more northward over the next couple of days. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and the cyclone is likely to dissipate by late Wed. Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California through the early part of the week. These swells will likely result in life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1008 mb low pressure that is over northern Colombia westward to across Panama and to 09N92W to 10N102W and northwestward to just of Tropical Storm Fausto. It resumes to the southwest of Fausto at 12N115W, and continues to 11N125W to 10N134W and to 09N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm south of the trough between 129W-140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough from 04N to 07N between 87W-91W, and within 180 nm south of the trough between 123W-127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 650 nautical miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 880 nautical miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. The earlier fresh to strong north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished to moderate to fresh speeds this afternoon per a 1632Z Ascat-B pass. Otherwise, rather broad high pressure is over the offshore waters, with its associated gradient generally providing for light to gentle winds. Outer associated rough seas from Elida near the far offshore waters boundary of Baja California are pulling away from those waters. Moderate seas dominate elsewhere as seen in satellite altimeter data passes. Rough seas associated with recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto are just encroaching on the extreme southern boundary of offshore waters zone that includes the Revillagigedo Islands, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed southeast and southwest swell. Slight seas remain in the Gulf of California. Winds in the Gulf are light to gentle, except with spots of moderate winds in the central and northern Gulf sections. Very active convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters between 102W and 113W. This activity reaches to along the coast of Guerrero and southern Jalisco. It may contain locally higher winds and seas possible near any thunderstorms. For the forecast, recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto will move to near 13.1N 114.1W late tonight, to near 14.2N 115.8W Mon afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.4N 117.3W late Mon night, move to near 16.3N 118.7W Tue afternoon, and continue to pull away from the offshore waters zones through Thu. Associated increasing winds and building seas are forecast to impact portions of the waters well offshore southwest Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands through Tue night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will begin to pulse again in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning tonight, and through the next several days, with locally rough seas at times. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail, except for locally fresh winds in the northern part of the Gulf through Wed. Northwest winds may freshen nearshore Baja California Norte Tue night through Thu as a building ridge temporarily tightens there. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico during the latter part of the week leading to increasing winds and seas possibly impacting portions of the outer offshore waters of southern and southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 09N91W. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are near the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 6 to 8 ft downstream of Papagayo. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in south to southwest swell, dominate the remainder of the offshore waters, except slight seas in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and near shore western Colombia. Very active convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters, primarily south and southeast of Costa Rica. This activity may contain locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through Fri, with moderate to fresh northeast winds pulsing near the Gulf of Fonseca. Gentle to moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in southwest swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected Please refer to the Special Features section for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 650 nautical miles south-southwwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 880 nautical miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Both of the above tropical cyclones dominate this part of the area. Otherwise, broad ridging prevails both west and east of Elida. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the open waters along with moderate seas, except moderate to locally fresh in the south-central waters south of 05N between 105W and 124W along with 7 to 9 ft in southeast to south swell over those waters. Very active convection, in large clusters, continues to be present near the monsoon trough. It may be producing locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to near 24.8N 126.6W late tonight, to near 27.4N 127.2W Mon afternoon, to near 30.1N 127.5W late Mon night, and weaken to a remnant low north of the area near 32.7N 127.5W Tue afternoon and dissipate Thu afternoon. Tropical Storm Fausto is forecast to move to near 13.1N 114.1W late tonight, to near 14.2N 115.8W Mon afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.4N 117.3W late Mon night, then reach to near 16.3N 118.7W Tue afternoon, to near 16.7N 120.1W late Tue night, and to near 17.0N 121.8W Wed afternoon. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves to the near 17.6N 126.0W Thu afternoon. Associated increasing winds and building seas are forecast to impact portions of the waters well offshore southwest Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds and locally rough seas over the south-central waters that follow in behind Fausto will gradually spread northward through the early part of the week. Little change in marine conditions is expected across the remainder of the open waters at least into midweek. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico during the latter part of the week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. $$ Aguirre --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC200001CCA_C_KWBC_20260720000251_32440682-5727-TWDEP.txt ****0000010652**** AXPZ20 KNHC 200001 CCA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 19 2026 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto is centered near 12.4N 112.7W at 19/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently to 12 ft, or 4 m. The tropical cyclone's overall cloud pattern is gradually becoming more consolidated. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to strong convection from 09N to 13N between 112W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 14N to 17N between 107W and 112W. Fausto is forecast to achieve a west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Fausto is forecast to become a hurricane by Mon night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Six-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 23.2N 125.9W at 19/2100 UTC, moving north-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 22 ft, or 6.5 m. Satellite imagery shows that the earlier observed deep convection near the center has weakened since this morning. Presently, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 22N to 25N between 123W and 126W. Elida is expected to increase in forward speed as it turns more northward over the next couple of days. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and the cyclone is likely to dissipate by late Wed. Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California through the early part of the week. These swells will likely result in life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1008 mb low pressure that is over northern Colombia westward to across Panama and to 09N92W to 10N102W and northwestward to just of Tropical Storm Fausto. It resumes to the southwest of Fausto at 12N115W, and continues to 11N125W to 10N134W and to 09N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 240 nm south of the trough between 129W-140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm south of the trough from 04N to 07N between 87W-91W, and within 180 nm south of the trough between 123W-127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 650 nautical miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 880 nautical miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. The earlier fresh to strong north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminished to moderate to fresh speeds this afternoon per a 1632Z Ascat-B pass. Otherwise, rather broad high pressure is over the offshore waters, with its associated gradient generally providing for light to gentle winds. Outer associated rough seas from Elida near the far offshore waters boundary of Baja California are pulling away from those waters. Moderate seas dominate elsewhere as seen in satellite altimeter data passes. Rough seas associated with recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto are just encroaching on the extreme southern boundary of offshore waters zone that includes the Revillagigedo Islands, with seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed southeast and southwest swell. Slight seas remain in the Gulf of California. Winds in the Gulf are light to gentle, except with spots of moderate winds in the central and northern Gulf sections. Very active convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters between 102W and 113W. This activity reaches to along the coast of Guerrero and southern Jalisco. It may contain locally higher winds and seas possible near any thunderstorms. For the forecast, recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto will move to near 13.1N 114.1W late tonight, to near 14.2N 115.8W Mon afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.4N 117.3W late Mon night, move to near 16.3N 118.7W Tue afternoon, and continue to pull away from the offshore waters zones through Thu. Associated increasing winds and building seas are forecast to impact portions of the waters well offshore southwest Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands through Tue night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will begin to pulse again in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning tonight, and through the next several days, with locally rough seas at times. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail, except for locally fresh winds in the northern part of the Gulf through Wed. Northwest winds may freshen nearshore Baja California Norte Tue night through Thu as a building ridge temporarily tightens there. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico during the latter part of the week leading to increasing winds and seas possibly impacting portions of the outer offshore waters of southern and southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 09N91W. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are near the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 6 to 8 ft downstream of Papagayo. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in south to southwest swell, dominate the remainder of the offshore waters, except slight seas in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and near shore western Colombia. Very active convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters, primarily south and southeast of Costa Rica. This activity may contain locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through Fri, with moderate to fresh northeast winds pulsing near the Gulf of Fonseca. Gentle to moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in southwest swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected Please refer to the Special Features section for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 650 nautical miles south-southwwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 880 nautical miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Both of the above tropical cyclones dominate this part of the area. Otherwise, broad ridging prevails both west and east of Elida. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the open waters along with moderate seas, except moderate to locally fresh in the south-central waters south of 05N between 105W and 124W along with 7 to 9 ft in southeast to south swell over those waters. Very active convection, in large clusters, continues to be present near the monsoon trough. It may be producing locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to near 24.8N 126.6W late tonight, to near 27.4N 127.2W Mon afternoon, to near 30.1N 127.5W late Mon night, and weaken to a remnant low north of the area near 32.7N 127.5W Tue afternoon and dissipate Thu afternoon. Tropical Storm Fausto is forecast to move to near 13.1N 114.1W late tonight, to near 14.2N 115.8W Mon afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.4N 117.3W late Mon night, then reach to near 16.3N 118.7W Tue afternoon, to near 16.7N 120.1W late Tue night, and to near 17.0N 121.8W Wed afternoon. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves to the near 17.6N 126.0W Thu afternoon. Associated increasing winds and building seas are forecast to impact portions of the waters well offshore southwest Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds and locally rough seas over the south-central waters that follow in behind Fausto will gradually spread northward through the early part of the week. Little change in marine conditions is expected across the remainder of the open waters at least into midweek. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico during the latter part of the week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC200248_C_KWBC_20260720024853_32440682-5739-TWDEP.txt ****0000008752**** AXPZ20 KNHC 200248 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fausto: Tropical Storm Fausto is centered near 12.6N 114.7W at 20/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently 14 to 15 ft or around 4.5 m. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 17N between 106W and 123W. Fausto is moving toward the northwest, and this general motion with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected through Tue. The cyclone is forecast to slow somewhat through Wed before gradually increasing its forward speed later in the week. Steady strengthening followed by a period of rapid intensification is forecast during the next couple of days, and Fausto is forecast to become a hurricane by Mon night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Elida: Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 24.1N 126.8W at 20/0300 UTC, moving north-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 21 ft or 6.5 m. Scattered moderate convection is between 75 nm and 240 nm in the NE quadrant, and elsewhere between 150 nm and 660 nm in the N quadrant. Elida is moving toward the north-northwest. A turn toward the north at a slightly faster speed is expected tonight through Mon. The system is then expected to continue northward but gradually slow down over the following day or two. Gradual weakening is anticipated. Elida is forecast to become a remnant low late Mon or early Tue. Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California during the next several days. These swells will likely result in life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia at 10N74W to 10N84W to 07N98W. The ITCZ extends from 07N98W to 11N109W. The monsoon trough continues from SSW of Elida from 14N126W to beyond 08N140W. Other than the convection mentioned above with Elida and Fausto, scattered moderate isolated strong is noted from 00N to 09N between 77W and 86W and from 07N to 12N between 101W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 270 nm SSE of the monsoon trough between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 678 nautical miles south- southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 934 nautical miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Otherwise, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are noted in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, with locally moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of 20N and west of 110W near the Revillagigedo Islands on the outer periphery of Fausto. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California, higher near the entrance, and moderate elsewhere, except rough near the Revillagigedo Islands due to Fausto just south of the area. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fausto will move to 13.3N 116.1W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.5N 117.7W Mon evening, 15.6N 119.4W Tue morning, 16.3N 120.8W Tue evening, 16.7N 122.3W Wed morning, and 17.1N 124.0W Wed evening. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.7N 128.8W late Thu. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Elida west of the Baja California waters will move to 26.0N 127.3W Mon morning, 28.7N 127.6W Mon evening, weaken to a remnant low north of the area near 31.6N 127.7W Tue morning, 34.2N 127.6W Tue evening, 35.6N 127.4W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec at times through the week with locally rough seas. Moderate to fresh SE winds will pulse in the central and northern Gulf of California through Mon. Winds may freshen off Baja California Norte by the end of the week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico during the latter part of the week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 09N88W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are moderate across the offshore waters, except slight in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands. Very active convection is present near the monsoon trough from western Colombia to offshore Guatemala as described above with locally higher winds and seas possible in any thunderstorms. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through Fri, with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the Gulf of Fonseca. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 678 nautical miles south- southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 934 nautical miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Both of the above tropical cyclones dominate the open waters. Moderate the fresh SE to S winds and 7 to 9 ft seas prevail across the waters south of 07N between 104W and 120W. Moderate to fresh winds and locally rough seas are near an area of disturbed weather at 11N103W with convection present as described above. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the waters away from Elida and Fausto. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fausto will move to 13.3N 116.1W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.5N 117.7W Mon evening, 15.6N 119.4W Tue morning, 16.3N 120.8W Tue evening, 16.7N 122.3W Wed morning, and 17.1N 124.0W Wed evening. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.7N 128.8W late Thu. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Elida will move to 26.0N 127.3W Mon morning, 28.7N 127.6W Mon evening, weaken to a remnant low north of the area near 31.6N 127.7W Tue morning, 34.2N 127.6W Tue evening, 35.6N 127.4W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Also, moderate to fresh winds and locally rough seas over the south-central waters that follow in behind Fausto will gradually spread northward through the early part of the week. Little change in marine conditions is expected across the remainder of the open waters at least into midweek. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico during the latter part of the week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC200851_C_KWBC_20260720085256_32440682-5764-TWDEP.txt ****0000009178**** AXPZ20 KNHC 200851 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jul 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0750 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fausto: Tropical Storm Fausto is centered near 12.9N 115.6W at 20/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft or 4.5 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the SE semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 04N to 16N between 109W and 122W. Fausto is moving toward the west-northwest, and this general motion with a gradual turn toward the northwest is expected through Tue. The cyclone is forecast to slow somewhat through Wed before gradually increasing its forward speed later in the week. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Fausto is forecast to become a hurricane tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Elida: Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 25.3N 127.1W at 20/0900 UTC, moving north-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 16 to 18 ft or 5 to 5.5 m. Widely scattered moderate convection is well removed from the center of circulation and is found from 26N to 30N between 123W and 130W. Elida is moving toward the north-northwest. A turn to the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast the during the next couple days. Gradual weakening is anticipated. Elida is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone today or tonight. Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California during the next several days. These swells will likely result in life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia at 11.5N73W to 10N85W to 07N97W. The ITCZ extends from 07N97W to 12N110.5W, ending to the east of Fausto. The monsoon trough resumes southeast of Elida and northwest of Fausto from 17N123W to 08.5N140W. Other than the convection mentioned above with Fausto and Elida, numerous moderate scattered strong is found from 04N to 10N between 77W and 86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong is noted within 120 nm southeast of the monsoon trough between 125W and 132W, and within 120 nm south of the monsoon trough between 136W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 682 nautical miles south- southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 952 nautical miles west- northwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Otherwise, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are noted in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec near the coast per the edge of a ASCAT-C scatterometer pass. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds extend from the central to the northern Gulf of California with some overnight convection there. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, except locally moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of 20N and west of 110W near the Revillagigedo Islands on the outer periphery of Fausto. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California, higher near the entrance, and moderate elsewhere, except rough near the Revillagigedo Islands due to Fausto just south of the area. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fausto will move to 13.8N 116.9W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.0N 118.3W Tue morning, 15.9N 119.9W Tue afternoon, 16.4N 121.5W Wed morning, 16.9N 123.1W Wed afternoon, and 17.3N 125.2W Thu morning. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves well away from the area to 17.9N 130.4W early Fri. Fresh northerly winds will pulse to strong at times in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the week with locally rough seas. Moderate to fresh SE winds will pulse in the central and northern Gulf of California through today. Winds may freshen off Baja California Norte by the end of the week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 09N89W, as captured by recent ASCAT-C and OSCAT-3 scatterometer passes. Seas are locally rough with these winds. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are moderate across the offshore waters, except slight in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands. Very active convection is present near the monsoon trough from western Colombia to across Panama and Costa Rica as well as just offshore of there. Locally higher winds and seas possible in any thunderstorms. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through early Fri, with moderate to fresh winds extending downwind to the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador at times. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 682 nautical miles south- southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 952 nautical miles west- northwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Both of the above tropical cyclones dominate the open waters. Moderate the fresh SE to S winds and 7 to 9 ft seas prevail across the waters south of 08N between 105W and 125W as indicated by recent ASCAT scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh winds and locally rough seas are diminishing and subsiding near an area of disturbed weather at 10N102W, while associated convection is dissipating. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the waters away from Elida and Fausto. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fausto will move to 13.8N 116.9W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.0N 118.3W Tue morning, 15.9N 119.9W Tue afternoon, 16.4N 121.5W Wed morning, 16.9N 123.1W Wed afternoon, and 17.3N 125.2W Thu morning. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves well away from the area to 17.9N 130.4W early Fri. Tropical Storm Elida will move to 27.2N 127.5W this afternoon, become post- tropical and move to 30.0N 127.8W Tue morning, weaken to a remnant low north of the discussion waters near 32.7N 127.7W Tue afternoon, 34.6N 127.4W Wed morning, 36.7N 127.0W Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. Also, moderate to fresh winds and locally rough seas over the south-central waters that follow in behind Fausto will gradually spread northward through the early part of the week. A new set of rough southerly swell may spread northward to near the Equator by the end of the week. Little change in marine conditions is expected across the remainder of the open waters at least into midweek. Looking ahead, A broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. $$ Lewitsky ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC201544_C_KWBC_20260720154459_32440682-5787-TWDEP.txt ****0000006700**** AXPZ20 KNHC 201544 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fausto: Fausto is centered near 13.5N 116.4W at 20/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 18 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is observed from 08N-17N between 108W-120W. A decrease in forward speed and a motion toward the northwest is expected during the next day or two. A turn back to the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Fausto is forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday, and persist for a couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida: Elida has become a post-tropical cyclone and is centered near 26.4N 127.2W at 20/1500 UTC, moving north-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 22 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 240 NM in the N quadrant. A turn to the north with an increase in forward speed is forecast the during the next couple days. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to continue to weaken and should dissipate within the next couple of days. Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California during the next several days. These swells will likely result in life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W along the Costa Rica coast westward to 10N108W, where it breaks for Tropical Storm Fausto. The monsoon trough begins again at 12N123W to beyond 09N140W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring north of 03N east of 85W as well as from 05N-10N west of 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 675 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Post-tropical Cyclone Elida, centered about 965 NM miles west-northwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE winds and 2-4 ft seas are over the Gulf of California. A small N wind plume of fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft in mixed winds waves and S swell are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds elsewhere are moderate or weaker. Seas near the Revillagigedo Islands are 7-9 ft in SE swell due to Tropical Storm Fausto. Elsewhere seas are 5-6 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, fresh N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish by this evening. Likewise, moderate to fresh SE winds over the central and N Gulf of California will weaken by tonight. NW winds should freshen off Baja California Norte on Wed and Thu. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west- northwestward away from forecast waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are NE fresh to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-5 ft in S swell. Isolated moderate convection is occurring north of 03N east of 85W. For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds will persist across the Papagayo region through Fri. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions are expected for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 675 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Post-tropical Cyclone Elida, centered about 965 NM miles west-northwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fausto and Elida dominate conditions over the High Seas forecast waters today. Away from these two systems, the only winds that are fresh are south of the equator west of 100W. These SE winds are accompanied by 8-9 ft seas. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 6-7 ft in mixed seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fausto will strengthen to a hurricane near 14.4N 117.5W this evening, move to 15.4N 119.0W Tue morning, 16.1N 120.6W Tue evening, 16.6N 122.1W Wed morning, 16.9N 124.0W Wed evening, and 17.3N 126.3W Thu morning. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.0N 131.5W early Fri. Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida will move to 28.5N 127.4W this evening, 31.1N 127.6W Tue morning, 33.6N 127.4W Tue evening, 35.6N 127.1W Wed morning, 37.7N 126.6W Wed evening, and dissipate Thu morning. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico by midweek. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################