--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2025-06-30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC300405_C_KWBC_20250630040536_25559334-1954-TWDEP.txt ****0000005156**** AXPZ20 KNHC 300405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jun 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Flossie is centered near 14.0N 101.0W at 30/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 13N to 15N between 99W and 102W. Scattered moderate to strong convection in bands are elsewhere from 07N to 19N between 93W and 119W. A west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next few days. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area late Monday and Tuesday. Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Flossie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N95W, then continues W of T.S. Flossie from 14N106W to 10N123W to 07N137W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N137W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from the convection related to T.S. Flossie, scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 10N between 81W and 88W, and from 07N to 11W between 129W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Flossie. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds. Light and variable winds are seen in the Gulf of California while gentle winds are noted over the remainder of the Mexican offshore forecast waters outside of T.S. Flossie. Mainly moderate seas in mixed swell prevail. For the forecast, Flossie will move to 14.8N 102.0W Mon morning, 16.0N 103.6W Mon evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.2N 105.4W Tue morning, 18.1N 106.9W Tue evening, 19.1N 108.2W Wed morning, and 20.0N 109.3W Wed evening. Flossie will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.0N 111.3W late Thu. Otherwise, a strengthening surface ridge N of the area should induce fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of California by middle of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A ridge positioned north of the area supports fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, and downwind to about 89W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. Large southerly swell with seas to 7 ft is S of 01S between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are forecast, mainly at night, in the Papagayo region through at least Wed. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Moderate to rough cross equatorial S to SW swell will affect the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remainder of the eastern Pacific region is under the influence of a 1031 mb high pressure system centered near 40N139W. Its associated ridge dominates the waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough currently supports an area of moderate to fresh NE winds N of the monsoon trough to about 18N between 112W and 118W. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are observed S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in general 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region, with little change in winds and seas through Tue night. By Wed morning, seas generated by strong winds offshore the state of California will propagate across the northern forecast waters, building seas to 8 to 9 ft across most of the area N of 28N between 120W and 130W by Thu morning, and N of 25N between 119W and 129W by Fri morning. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC300951_C_KWBC_20250630095157_12124482-5584-TWDEP.txt ****0000005583**** AXPZ20 KNHC 300951 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jun 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Flossie is centered near 15.0N 101.8W at 30/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are 15 ft. Numerous strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 99W and 103W. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection in bands are elsewhere from 07N to 20N between 93W and 122W. A west-northwest to northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, and are possible within the watch areas, late today through Tuesday. Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Flossie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N90W to 11N95W, then continues W of T.S. Flossie from 13N107W to 09N125W to 06N136W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N136W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from the convection related to T.S. Flossie, scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 10N E of 87W, from 09N to 12N between 119W and 123W, and from 07N to 10W between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Flossie. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds per recent scatterometer data. Light and variable winds are seen at the entrance and in the Gulf of California. Scatterometer data show moderate to fresh E winds in Tehuantepec. Seas are moderate to 6 ft in NW swell off Baja California. Moderate seas in S swell are also elsewhere away from Flossie. For the forecast, Flossie will move to 15.7N 102.9W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.8N 104.6W Tue morning, 17.7N 106.3W Tue afternoon, 18.5N 107.7W Wed morning, 19.4N 108.8W Wed afternoon, and 20.4N 109.8W Thu morning. Flossie will weaken as a post-tropical cyclone near 22.7N 111.9W early Fri. Otherwise, a strengthening surface ridge N of the area should induce fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of California by middle of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A ridge positioned north of the area supports fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, and downwind to about 90W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft within these winds. Light to gentle winds are slight to moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos, winds are mainly moderate from the SE to S and large S swell is bringing seas within 6 to 8 ft to the region. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are forecast, mainly at night, in the Papagayo region through Thu evening, then will diminish to mainly moderate speeds through Fri night. Fresh to locally strong E winds from the Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event will affect the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Wed evening through Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Moderate to rough cross equatorial S to SW swell will continue to affect the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Tue evening. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remainder of the eastern Pacific region is under the influence of a 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 40N138W. Its associated ridge dominates the waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough currently supports moderate NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough to about 30N W of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are observed S of the monsoon trough between 100W and 118W. Seas are in general 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, the ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region, with little change in winds and seas through Fri night. By Wed morning, seas generated by strong winds offshore the state of California will propagate across the northern forecast waters, building seas to 8 to 9 ft across most of the area N of 28N between 120W and 130W by Thu morning, and N of 25N between 119W and 129W by Fri morning. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC301544_C_KWBC_20250630154541_25559334-1989-TWDEP.txt ****0000005701**** AXPZ20 KNHC 301544 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jun 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Flossie is centered near 15.6N 102.6W at 30/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. A west-northwest to northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are 15 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 14N to 16N between 100W and 105W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection, in bands, is elsewhere from 10N to 18N between 98W and 106W. Flossie is a little stronger. Steady-to-rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Flossie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N94W, then continues W of T.S. Flossie from 14N112W to 08N140W. Aside from the convection related to T.S. Flossie, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 08N E of 81W to the coast of Colombia, and from 09N to 14N between 111W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Flossie. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are in the vicinity of Cabo San Lucas. Light westerly winds are seen in the Gulf of California. Latest scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh E winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Outside of Flossie, seas are moderate in mixed swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Flossie will move to 16.5N 103.8W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.4N 105.4W Tue morning, 18.2N 106.9W Tue evening, 19.2N 108.2W Wed morning, 20.0N 109.3W Wed evening, and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.9N 110.4W Thu morning. Flossie will become post-tropical as it moves to near 23.0N 112.6W early Fri. Otherwise, a strengthening surface ridge N of the area should induce fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of California by the middle of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A ridge positioned north of the area supports fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, and downwind to about 89W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds. Meanwhile, latest satellite-derived wind data show moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of 05N, and light and variable winds N of 05N. Slight to moderate seas dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters, with the highest seas of 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are forecast, mainly at night, in the Papagayo region through at least Wed. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Moderate to rough cross equatorial S to SW swell will affect the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remainder of the eastern Pacific region is under the influence of a 1028 mb high pressure system centered near 40N138W. Its associated ridge dominates the waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the monsoon trough currently supports an area of moderate to fresh NE winds N of the monsoon trough to about 16N between 115W and 119W. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are observed S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in general 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region, with little change in winds and seas through Tue night. By Wed morning, seas generated by strong winds offshore the state of California will propagate across the northern forecast waters, building seas to 8 to 9 ft across most of the area N of 28N between 120W and 128W by Thu night, and N of 26N between 119W and 128W by Fri morning. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC302131_C_KWBC_20250630213145_25559334-2014-TWDEP.txt ****0000006386**** AXPZ20 KNHC 302131 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jun 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Flossie is centered near 16.2N 103.6W at 30/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. A northwest to west-northwest motion should continue over the next few days. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen within 120 nm SE and 60 nm NW semicircles of center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in bands elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 100W and 107W. Flossie's satellite presentation has continued to improve throughout the day. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Tuesday. Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Wednesday. This rainfall could lead to isolated life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Flossie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N90W to 11N95W, then continues W of T.S. Flossie from 12N114W to 07N136W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N136W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from the convection related to T.S. Flossie, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 07N E of 87W to the coast of Colombia, and from 09N to 14N between 110W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please, refer to the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Flossie. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds. Light and variable winds are seen in the Gulf of California, except near the entrance to the Gulf where moderate to locally fresh SE winds are noted. Fresh to strong winds associated with the outer circulation of Flossie are reaching the coast of Guerrero and Michoacan based on satellite derived wind data. Outside of Flossie, seas are moderate in mixed swell across the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Flossie will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.0N 105.0W Tue morning, move to 17.9N 106.7W Tue afternoon, 18.8N 108.1W Wed morning, 19.5N 109.3W Wed afternoon, 20.1N 110.5W Thu morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.0N 111.6W Thu afternoon. Flossie will weaken to a remnant low near 22.9N 113.2W by Fri afternoon. Otherwise, a strengthening surface ridge N of the area should induce fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of California by the middle of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer pass shows moderate to fresh NE winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to neat 10N90W. A ridge across the NW Caribbean supports these winds. Scatterometer data also indicate moderate to locally fresh southerly winds south of 05N, and light to gentle westerly winds N of 05N. Slight to moderate seas dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters, with the highest seas of 5 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region through Wed. Winds may increase to strong speeds, with moderate to rough seas by Wed night into Thu due to the pressure gradient between a ridge to the N and a low pressure along the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Moderate to rough cross equatorial S to SW swell will affect the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remainder of the eastern Pacific region is under the influence of a 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 40N138W. Its associated ridge dominates the waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and W of 120W, producing gentle to moderate winds. Seas are in general 4 to 6 ft within these winds. Mainly moderate S to SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough. These winds increase to fresh to strong speeds S of Flossie, and from 10N to 12N between 113W and 116W likely in association with convective activity there. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the region, with little change in winds and seas through Tue night. By Wed, seas generated by strong winds offshore the state of California will propagate across the northern forecast waters, building seas to 8 to 9 ft across most of the area N of 28N between 120W and 128W by Thu night, and N of 27N between 120W and 126W by Fri morning. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################