--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-08-30 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC300340_C_KWBC_20260830034044_38011292-983-TWDEP.txt ****0000008141**** AXPZ20 KNHC 300340 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 17.0N 120.2W at 30/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are around 31 ft (9.5 m). Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest, followed by a more westerly motion over the next day or two. Karina is just below hurricane intensity. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days. Karina is forecast to become a hurricane within the next day and could become a major hurricane early next week. Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 13.2N 138.1W at 30/0300 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft (4 m). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 150 nm W semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the west-northwest. A westward motion should resume during the next few hours and continue for the next several days. Gradual strengthening is expected during the weekend, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Monday or Monday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several of days. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 82W north of 05N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 07N between 80W and 87W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 103W from 04N to 15N, moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N to 13N between 100W AND 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N85W to 08N90W to 12N108W. No significant convection is observed other than what has already been described near Karina, Lowell and the tropical waves. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone formation. While the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican offshore waters, strong to near gale force winds and rough to very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Outer rainbands associated with the cyclone's circulation are also moving across the islands. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to blow across Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina is west of the Mexican offshore waters near 17.0N 120.2W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west- northwest at 14 kt. Strong SE winds are impacting the Revillagigedo Islands through Sun, on the far eastern periphery of T.S. Karina. These winds will diminish through late Sun as the storm moves farther west. Associated rough to very rough seas will gradually subside from east to west across the islands through Sun night and early Mon. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds and occasional rough seas will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected across the northern and central Gulf of California through Sun night into Mon. Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is expected to move west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several of days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 10N92W, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, and an area of disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone formation. A trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle, extends from 26N135W to 22N136W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring near the northern end of the trough axis and mainly N of 25N W of 130W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical storms and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters from 09N to 20N between 111W and 122W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 121.6W Sun morning, move to 17.6N 123.3W Sun evening, 17.8N 125.0W Mon morning, 18.0N 126.5W Mon evening, 18.7N 128.3W Tue morning, and 19.3N 130.0W Tue evening. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.7N 132.6W late Wed. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to 13.1N 139.9W Sun morning, 13.0N 142.1W Sun evening, 13.0N 144.0W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.1N 145.9W Mon evening, 13.2N 147.9W Tue morning, and 13.4N 149.7W Tue evening. Lowell will change little in intensity as it moves to 13.6N 152.2W late Wed. Seas 8 ft or greater generated by Karina will cover a large area by Sun afternoon, particularly from 08N to 28N between 110W and 130W. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC300910_C_KWBC_20260830091046_38011292-1003-TWDEP.txt ****0000007853**** AXPZ20 KNHC 300910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly upgraded Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.3N 121.1W at 30/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are around 30 ft (9.5 m). Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center. Karina is moving toward the west- northwest, followed by a more westerly motion over the next day or two. Karina is just below hurricane intensity. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days. Karina is forecast to become a hurricane within the next day and could become a major hurricane early next week. Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 13.2N 139.1W at 30/0900 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft (4 m). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 150 nm W semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the west-northwest. A westward motion should resume during the next few hours and continue for the next several days. Gradual strengthening is expected during the weekend, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Monday or Monday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several of days. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 84W north of 05N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 07N between 80W and 87W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 106W from 04N to 15N, moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N to 20N between 100W AND 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N85W to 08N90W to 12N108W. No significant convection is observed other than what has already been described near Karina, Lowell and the tropical waves. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone formation. While the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican offshore waters, strong to near gale force winds and rough to very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Outer rainbands associated with the cyclone's circulation are also moving across the islands. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to blow across Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, strong SE winds are impacting the Revillagigedo Islands through Sun, on the far eastern periphery of Hurricane Karina. These winds will diminish through late today as the storm moves farther west. Associated rough to very rough seas will gradually subside from east to west across the islands through Sun night and early Mon. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds and occasional rough seas will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected across the northern and central Gulf of California through Sun night into Mon. Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is expected to move west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several of days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 10N92W, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, and an area of disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone formation. A trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle, extends from 27N135W to 23N137W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring near the northern end of the trough axis and mainly N of 25N W of 130W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical storms and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters from 10N to 20N between 110W and 125W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Karina will move to 17.6N 122.5W this afternoon, 17.8N 124.3W Mon morning, 17.9N 125.8W Mon afternoon, 18.3N 127.5W Tue morning, 18.9N 129.3W Tue afternoon, and 19.4N 131.0W Wed morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.3N 133.8W early Thu. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to 13.0N 140.9W this afternoon, 13.0N 143.1W Mon morning, 13.1N 145.2W Mon afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.3N 147.2W Tue morning, 13.4N 149.1W Tue afternoon, and 13.5N 150.9W Wed morning. Lowell will change little in intensity as it moves to 14.0N 154.0W early Thu. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC301601_C_KWBC_20260830160148_38011292-1025-TWDEP.txt ****0000008649**** AXPZ20 KNHC 301601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.3N 122.1W at 30/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are around 33 ft (10 m). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Karina is moving toward the west- northwest. A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Steady to rapid strengthening seems likely, and Karina is forecast to become a major hurricane in a day or so. Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Lowell is just west of area centered near 13.3N 140.4W at 30/1500 UTC, moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft (4 m). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 180 nm W semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a general westward motion is expected during the next two to three days. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Monday or Monday night. Please read the latest CPHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCPCP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCMCP4.shtml for more details. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is expected to continue to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 88W north of 05N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 10N to 12N between 88W and 96W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 107W from 05N to 17N, moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 100W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 08N90W to 11N107W to 10N110W. In addition to the convection near Karina, Lowell and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident N of 04N E of 81W to the coast of Colombia. Part of this convective activity is over the Gulf of Panama. Similar convection is also found from 02N to 10N W of 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone formation. While the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican offshore waters, strong to near gale force winds and rough to very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Outer rainbands associated with the cyclone's circulation are also moving across the islands. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to blow across Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of California except the northern part where fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas are noted. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Karina Karina will move to 17.5N 123.5W this evening, 17.6N 125.1W Mon morning, 17.8N 126.9W Mon evening, 18.1N 128.7W Tue morning, 18.6N 130.3W Tue evening, and 19.1N 131.9W Wed morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.0N 135.1W early Thu. The fresh SE winds impacting the Revillagigedo Islands, particularly Clarion Island, on the far eastern periphery of Hurricane Karina, will diminish through late today as the storm moves farther west. Associated rough to very rough seas will gradually subside from east to west across the islands by tonight. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds and occasional rough seas will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected across the northern and central Gulf of California through tonight into Mon. Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is expected to continue to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, currently located just west of the forecast area, and an area of disturbed weather located well offshore of Southwestern Mexico with the potential of tropical cyclone formation. A trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle, extends from 27N135W to 20N139W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring near the northern end of the trough axis and mainly 25N to 28N W of 137W . Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical cyclones and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters 10N to 23N between 113W and 127W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Karina Karina will move to 17.5N 123.5W this evening, 17.6N 125.1W Mon morning, 17.8N 126.9W Mon evening, 18.1N 128.7W Tue morning, 18.6N 130.3W Tue evening, and 19.1N 131.9W Wed morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.0N 135.1W early Thu. Tropical Storm Lowell will be W of area near 13.3N 142.0W this afternoon. The associated winds and seas will also move W of area by tonight. Seas generated by Karina will continue to propagate across a large part of the forecast region early this week. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC302201_C_KWBC_20260830220150_38011292-1047-TWDEP.txt ****0000007773**** AXPZ20 KNHC 302201 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.2N 123.2W at 30/2100 UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are around 33 ft (10 m). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Karina is moving toward the west. A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Steady to rapid strengthening seems likely, and Karina is forecast to become a major hurricane in a day or so. Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP95): A tropical wave with disorganized showers and thunderstorms, is located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is expected to continue to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and also through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 89W north of 05N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the southern end of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is along 106W from 05N to 17N with a 1010 mb low pressure (EP95) located near 12N106W. This system is moving NNW at around 5 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 100W and 110W. Similar convective activity can be found from 05N to 10N between 98W and 104W. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are seen on the either side of the wave axis, particularly from 12N to 15.5N between 102W and 108W. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 08N90W to 11N106W to 12N118W. In addition to the convection near Karina, and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident N of 03N E of 85W to the coast of Colombia. Part of this convective activity is affecting western Panama and Costa Rica. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone formation (EP95). Fresh SE winds and rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Hurricane Karina are still reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Outer rainbands associated with the cyclone's circulation are also moving across the islands. Moderate to fresh N gap winds are now blowing across Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of California, except the northern part of the Gulf where fresh to strong winds and moderate seas are noted. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are present elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Karina will move to 17.1N 124.2W Mon morning, 17.3N 125.8W Mon afternoon, 17.6N 127.6W Tue morning, 18.0N 129.4W Tue afternoon, 18.6N 131.3W Wed morning, and 19.0N 132.9W Wed afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.9N 136.2W Thu afternoon. The fresh SE winds and rough seas impacting the Revillagigedo Islands, particularly Clarion Island, on the far eastern periphery of Hurricane Karina, will diminish tonight into Mon as the storm moves farther west. In addition, the fresh to strong southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California will also diminish tonight. Then, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are expected. However, seas are forecast to build near the entrance to the Gulf by midweek as the next tropical cyclone approaches the Revillagigedo Islands. Looking ahead, a tropical wave with disorganized showers and thunderstorms, is located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is expected to continue to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through early this week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon early this week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina, and an area of disturbed weather located well offshore of Southwestern Mexico with the potential of tropical cyclone formation (EP95). A trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle, remains over the NW corner of the forecast region and extends from 26N135W to 21N142W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring near the northern end of the trough axis and mainly 25N to 28N W of 137W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from Karina, EP95 and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters from 11N to 24N between 115W and 128W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Karina will move to 17.1N 124.2W Mon morning, 17.3N 125.8W Mon afternoon, 17.6N 127.6W Tue morning, 18.0N 129.4W Tue afternoon, 18.6N 131.3W Wed morning, and 19.0N 132.9W Wed afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.9N 136.2W Thu afternoon. Tropical Storm Lowell is now west of the forecast area. The associated winds and seas will also move W of area by tonight. Seas generated by Karina will continue to propagate across a large part of the forecast region early this week. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################