--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-09-09 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC090406_C_KWBC_20260909040613_38011292-1975-TWDEP.txt ****0000005114**** AXPZ20 KNHC 090406 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, centered near 16N111W or several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, continue to show signs of organization. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from 12N to 21N between 106W and 115W. Gradual development of this system is likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form later this week while it moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two days and high chance within the next seven days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 83W north of 04N through western Panama and S Costa Rica. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significan convecton at this time. A tropical wave has its axis along 96W north of 02N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from 01N to 16N between 89W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 10N102W to Invest EP96 1007 mb low pressure near 16N111W to 10N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 10N to 17N between 122W and 132W, and from 02N to 10N W of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, centered near 16N111W has high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next seven days. Fresh to strong winds in the NE quadrant of the low are affecting the outer Jalisco offshores and the Revillagigedo Islands. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec fresh to strong winds are pulsing. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active across the SW Mexican offshores associated with Invest EP96 and a trailing tropical wave. Farther north, a weak pressure gradient across the region due to the presence of remnant low of Marie to the west of the Baja California Peninsula is supporting mainly gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja, and light to gentle winds along with slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, regardless of development, EP96 will continue to affect the outer Jalisco offshores as well as the Revillagigedo Islands with fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas through Wed evening. A trailing tropical wave is forecast to provide mainly moderate to fresh SE winds to the SW Mexican offshores tonight through Thu evening. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft in southwest swell. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos today through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features for further info on Invest EP96 with high potential of development. The remnant low of Marie is centered 27N128W and has an estimated pressure of 1002 mb. Strong to near-gale force winds and seas to 14 ft are ongoing within 90 nm in the northern semicircle of the low pressure, with surrounding swell of 8 ft or greater extending over the waters north of 20N and west of 120W. Farther south, SW swell to 8 ft originating in the Southern Hemisphere is reaching the equator between 110W and 120W and mixing with northerly swell. Winds and combined seas will diminish through mid week as the low dissipates. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. This swell area is forecast to expand eastward through Wed as the primary swell direction becomes northwest to north. Seas from this swell are expected to be 7 to 9 ft. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC090948_C_KWBC_20260909094915_38011292-2002-TWDEP.txt ****0000005794**** AXPZ20 KNHC 090948 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, centered near 16N112W or several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, continue to show signs of organization. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 12N to 20N between 109W and 116W. Although the system does not have a closed surface circulation yet, further development is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two and seven days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 84W north of 03N through Costa Rica, Nicaragua and E Honduras. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convecton is from 02N to 08N E of 90W. A tropical wave has its axis along 98W north of 01N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection extends from 00N to 17N between 90W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 07N100W to Invest EP96 1007 mb low pressure near 16N112W to 13N127W and beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active from 12N to 18N between 122W and 131W, and from 01N to 09N W of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, centered near 16N112W has high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next two and seven days. Fresh to strong winds in the N semicircle of the low are affecting the Revillagigedo Islands along with moderate to rough seas. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec fresh to strong winds are pulsing and seas have remain moderate. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active across the SW Mexican offshores associated with Invest EP96 and a trailing tropical wave near 98W. Farther north, a weak pressure gradient across the region due to the presence of the remnant low of Marie to the west of the Baja California Norte is supporting mainly light to gentle winds off the Baja Peninsula, and moderate or weaker winds and slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, regardless of development, the EP96 will continue to affect the Revillagigedo Islands with fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas through this evening. The trailing tropical wave is forecast to provide mainly moderate to fresh SE winds to the SW Mexican offshores today through Thu. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region with moderate seas to 6 ft in southwest swell. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos today through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features for further info on Invest EP96 with high potential of development. The remnant low of Marie is centered 27N128W and has an estimated pressure of 1003 mb. A recent scatterometer pass confirm the continuation of strong to near-gale force winds within the E semicircle of the low. Seas to 14 ft are ongoing within 390 nm E semicircle of the low per recent altimeter data, with surrounding swell of 8 ft or greater extending over the waters north of 20N and west of 124W. Farther south, SW swell to 8 ft originating in the Southern Hemisphere is reaching the equator between 100W and 130W, and mixing with northerly swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. This swell area is forecast to expand eastward through today as the primary swell direction becomes northwest to north. Seas from this swell are expected to be 7 to 9 ft. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature indicating the potential of tropical cyclone development from Invest EP96, an area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Chance of tropical cyclone development is low within the next two days and medium within the next seven days. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC091605_C_KWBC_20260909160623_21889468-1744-TWDEP.txt ****0000005803**** AXPZ20 KNHC 091605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Portion and West Portion of the East Pacific (EP96): Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better organized in association with an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Further development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two days, and also through seven days. A Gale Warning has been issued with this system at 1200 UTC. Please, refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 87W north of 03N through Nicaragua and Honduras. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong conveciton is from 03N to 10N between 84W and 90W. A tropical wave has its axis along 100W/101W north of 03N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 15N between 90W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 08N95W to 1007 mb low pressure (EP96) near 15N114W to 1008 mb low pressure near 13.5N129W to beyond 09N140W. In addition to the convection associated with EP96 and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found N of 05N E of 84W to the coast of Colombia, and from 01N to 08N W of 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, is centered near 15.5N114W. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas in the N semicircle of the low are affecting the Revillagigedo Islands. Pulsing fresh to strong N winds and locally rough seas are occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Farther north, a weak pressure gradient across the region due to the presence of the remnant low of Marie to the west of the Baja California Norte is supporting mainly light to gentle winds off the Baja Peninsula, and moderate or weaker winds and slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, regardless of development, EP96 will continue to affect the Revillagigedo Islands with fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas through this evening. The trailing tropical wave is forecast to provide mainly moderate to fresh SE winds to the SW Mexican offshore waters today through Thu. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Papagayo region, with moderate to rough. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos today through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features for further information on Invest EP96 with a high chance of tropical cyclone development. The remnant low of Marie is centered 29N129W with an estimated pressure of 1004 mb. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas up to 12 ft N of 27N between 125W and 129W. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with this system cover the waters N of 22N W of 130W. Farther south, SW swell to 8 ft originating in the Southern Hemisphere is reaching the equator between 95W and 102W, and mixing with northerly swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature indicating the potential of tropical cyclone development from Invest EP96, an area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Chance of tropical cyclone development is low within the next two days and medium within the next seven days. $$ GR ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################