--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-09-08 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC080408_C_KWBC_20260908040906_38011292-1877-TWDEP.txt ****0000006531**** AXPZ20 KNHC 080408 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 25.1N 125.9W at 08/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas have lowered to near 17 ft. Latest satellite imagery continue to show a sheared Marie, with its center having become exposed to the northwest of scattered moderate convection in the SE quadrant from 19N to 25N between 121W and 126W. Marie is forecast to turn to the northwest over the next couple of days, and is forecast to become a post- tropical remnant low by Wed. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 88W north of 04N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 14N between 79W and 94W. A tropical wave has its axis along 109W from 05N to 18N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 16N between 102W and 117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N83W to 14N109W to 10N126W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 14N west of 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the region due to the presence of Tropical Storm Marie to the west of the Baja California Peninsula is supporting mainly gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja and light to gentle winds along with slight seas in the Gulf of California. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico with potential to develop into a tropical cyclone later in the week is supporting moderate to fresh winds off Jalisco and south of the Revillagigedo Islands. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are pulsing in Tehuantepec. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected to briefly develop over the nearshore waters of Baja California and over some sections of the Gulf of California tonight into Tue as Tropical Storm Marie, near 25.1N 125.9W at 8 PM PDT, moves farther away from the forecast waters. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico remain disorganized. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Regardless of development, this system may bring moderate to fresh winds to the offshore waters of Jalisco and the Revillagigedo Islands tonight through Wed night. Otherwise, the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin tonight and pulse to strong speeds through Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft in south to southwest swell. Light to gentle winds along with moderate seas are elsewhere over these waters. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat. High pressure building north of the area will lead to near gale speeds wind Wed and Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Tue through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Marie. Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie over the northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh northeast to east winds along with seas of 7 to 10 ft in east swell are over the far western waters north of 20N and west of about 135W. These conditions are forecast to merge with those associated to Tropical Storm Marie in about 18 hours. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in north to northeast swell generated by Tropical Storm Marie over the waters north of 13N between 118W and 135W. For the forecast, Marie will move to 25.8N 126.9W Tue morning, become post-tropical and move to 27.2N 127.9W Tue evening, weaken to a remnant low near 29.1N 129.1W Wed morning, 31.3N 130.4W Wed evening, 33.4N 132.0W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu evening. Long-period northwest to north swell is merging with cross- equatorial Southern Hemispheric swell south of about 2N and between 110W and 125W. This swell area is forecast to expand eastward through Wed as the primary swell direction becomes northwest to north, Seas from this swell are expected to be 7 to 9 ft. To the east, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is located several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system generally west-northwestward. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC080940_C_KWBC_20260908094107_38011292-1901-TWDEP.txt ****0000006014**** AXPZ20 KNHC 080940 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 25.5N 126.6W at 08/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Latest satellite imagery continue to show a sheared Marie, with its center exposed to the northwest of widely scattered moderate convection in the SE quadrant from 18N to 26N between 122W and 126W. Marie is forecast to move west-northwest over the next few days, and is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today or Wed. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 90W north of 04N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 16N between 88W and 103W. A tropical wave has its axis along 112W from 04N to 18N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 20N between 100W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 11N112W to 09N129W and to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 15N west of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the region due to the presence of Tropical Storm Marie to the west of the Baja California Peninsula is supporting mainly gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja, and light to gentle winds along with slight seas in the Gulf of California. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico with potential to develop into a tropical cyclone later in the week is supporting moderate to fresh winds off Jalisco and south of the Revillagigedo Islands. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are pulsing in Tehuantepec. For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico have the potential for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Regardless of development, this system will bring at least moderate to strong winds to the offshore waters of Jalisco and the Revillagigedo Islands today through Wed night. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft in southwest swell. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat. Building high pressure north of the area will also lead to near-gale force winds Wed and Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos today through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Marie. Tropical Storm Marie is near 25.5N 126.6W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie over the northeast portion of the region, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, Marie will move to 26.3N 127.5W this afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 27.9N 128.6W Wed morning, 29.8N 129.9W Wed afternoon, 32.1N 131.4W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu afternoon. Long-period northwest to north swell is merging with cross- equatorial Southern Hemispheric swell south of about 00N and between 104W and 122W. This swell area is forecast to expand eastward through Wed as the primary swell direction becomes northwest to north. Seas from this swell are expected to be 7 to 9 ft. To the east, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of southwestern Mexico have the potential for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system generally west-northwestward. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC081546_C_KWBC_20260908154709_38011292-1930-TWDEP.txt ****0000006141**** AXPZ20 KNHC 081546 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Marie is no longer considered a tropical storm due to a lack of deep convection, and is now post-tropical. Marie is centered near 25.8N 127.4W at 08/1500 UTC, moving west- northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Despite no longer being a tropical storm, maximum sustained wind speed is still 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 19 ft. No significant thunderstorm activity is evident near Marie, and the low level center remains fully exposed due to strong shear aloft. Marie is expected to turn more northwestward as it finds itself wedged between a cutoff low descending from the northeast Pacific and a high pressure system centered over the southwestern US. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is entering the eastern Pacific this morning, and extends along 79W north of 04N through central Panama. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 04N to 06N between 80W and 82W. A tropical wave has its axis along 91W north of 03N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection near the tropical wave is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section. A tropical wave from 05N to 17N has been relocated to 111W. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Convection near the tropical wave is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 08N100W to 1007 mb low pressure near 15N112W, and to beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 10N to 14N between 85W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 15N between 110W to 115W, and from 10N to 15N between 122W and 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the region due to the presence of Tropical Storm Marie to the west of the Baja California Peninsula is supporting mainly gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja, and light to gentle winds along with slight seas in the Gulf of California. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active off Chiapas and Oaxaca, beyond 90 nm. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are pulsing in Tehuantepec. For the forecast, the showers and thunderstorms off Chiapas and Oaxaca are associated with broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico. This activity has the potential for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Regardless of development, this system will bring at least moderate to strong winds to the offshore waters of Jalisco and the Revillagigedo Islands today through Wed night. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft in southwest swell. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos today through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Marie. Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie north of 22N, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, Marie will become a remnant low and move to 26.8N 128.2W this evening, 28.7N 129.4W Wed morning, 31.2N 131.1W Wed evening, and dissipate Thu morning. Long-period northwest to north swell is merging with cross- equatorial Southern Hemispheric swell south of about 00N and between 104W and 122W. This swell area is forecast to expand eastward through Wed as the primary swell direction becomes northwest to north. Seas from this swell are expected to be 7 to 9 ft. To the east, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico are showing signs of organization. Gradual development of this system is likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form later this week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################