--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-07-11 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC110408_C_KWBC_20260711040818_9109880-7982-TWDEP.txt ****0000004822**** AXPZ20 KNHC 110408 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W, from the NW Caribbean southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 14N E of 91W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, from 01N to 16N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03N to 13N between 91W and 107W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 127W from 02N to 16N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 03N to 16N between 120W and 134W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 09N120W to 05N140W. The ITCZ begins and extends beyond 05N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 13N between 106W and 120W, and from 01N to 09N W of 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula, with a surface trough over the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds along the Gulf of California. A tropical wave passing SW of SW Mexican offshores is helping to induce fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds will prevail across the Baja California offshores through the middle of next week along with slight to moderate seas in mixed swell. Fresh to strong SE winds across the Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by late Sat. Pulses of fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach near gale- force speed Mon night, which will continue to affect the region through at least midweek. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico starting Sun night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A tropical wave crossing Central America with axis extending into the E Pacific waters, is inducing fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are moderate or less. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds in the Papagayo region will prevail through the middle of next week with moderate to rough seas. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas may impact the waters offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Sat evening through late Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters N of 18N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and W of 125W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas across the discussion waters are moderate or less. For the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of development, this system will bring strong winds and rough seas to the SW Mexican offshore immediate open waters Sun through midweek. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC110936_C_KWBC_20260711093705_32440682-4989-TWDEP.txt ****0000004745**** AXPZ20 KNHC 110936 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W, from the NW Caribbean southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 14N E of 91W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W, from 02N to 14N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03N to 14N between 94W and 105W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 128W from 01N to 16N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection extends from 05N to 14N between 120W and 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 12N125W to 05N140W. The ITCZ begins beyond 05N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 13N between 105W and 114W, and from 02N to 08N W of 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula, with a surface trough over the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds along the Gulf of California. A tropical wave passing SW of the SW Mexican offshores is helping to induce fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds will prevail across the Baja California offshores through the middle of next week along with slight to moderate seas in mixed swell. Fresh to strong SE winds across the Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by late Sat. Pulses of fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach near gale- force speed Mon night, which will continue to affect the region through at least midweek. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico starting Sun night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A tropical wave extending from the Gulf of Honduras to Nicaragua to 02N in the E Pacific waters, is supporting fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds in the Papagayo region will prevail through the middle of next week with moderate to rough seas. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas may impact the waters offshore El Salvador and Guatemala from this evening through Mon morning. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters N of 18N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and W of 125W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward. Regardless of development, this system will bring strong winds and rough seas to the SW Mexican offshore immediate open waters Sun through midweek. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################