--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2025-10-31 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC310307_C_KWBC_20251031030806_12124482-6524-TWDEP.txt ****0000007038**** AXPZ20 KNHC 310307 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A high pressure ridge continues to extend from NE Mexico southeastward into the Yucatan Peninsula and Guatemala, behind a cold front moving across the W Atlantic and NW Caribbean. This pattern continues to support strong to gale-force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, with fresh to strong winds extending well downstream of Tehuantepec to 11N99W. Winds are currently around 35 kt, and expected to continue past midnight tonight, before diminishing below gale-force, to fresh to strong speeds through late Fri morning, then pulse again to strong Fri night. Rough seas will continue to spread southwestward with these winds, and currently are 10 to 14 ft within the gale-force winds. Seas generated from this event will spread well south of the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 08N100W late tonight, at which time they will merge with new cross-equatorial SW swell. Seas in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec will subside to less than 8 ft late Fri afternoon. Looking ahead, the next significant gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is expected to begin Sun afternoon, possibly reaching gale-force Sun night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 11N107W to 07N121W to low pres near 10N131W 1011 mb and to 09N136W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N136W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 13N and east of 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event. A broad 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 35N133W extends a ridge southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Outside of the impact of the Tehuantepec wind event, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent over much of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of California. A long-period NW swell is approaching the waters west of Guadalupe island, supporting seas near 8 ft. For the forecast, high pressure centered over NE Mexico will maintain a ridge extending southeastward into Central America through Fri, behind a NW Caribbean cold front. This will support strong to gale-force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through late tonight, before gradually diminishing Fri. Seas generated from this event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 08N100W on tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure will remain well NW of the area through the weekend to produce moderate or weaker winds across the Baja offshore waters. New N-NW swell will enter the Baja California Norte waters later tonight, building seas 6 to 9 ft across those waters on Fri. Large NW swell will move into the area waters on Sun building seas off of Baja Norte to 8 to 11 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the nearshore and offshore waters of Central America, mainly south of Honduras, and Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely near the stronger storms. The strong wind gap event currently ongoing in Tehuantepec is causing moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas in the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds and seas will increase in the region later tonight into Fri morning. Elsewhere, a cross-equatorial SW swell is pushing northward, building south of 6-8 ft south of 03N and up to 9 ft SW of the Galapagos Islands. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted in these waters. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, rough seas generated by the Tehuantepec gale event will impact the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Fri. Fresh to locally strong gap winds and seas building to 8 ft are expected across the Papagayo region late tonight through Sat as high pressure builds over the northwestern Caribbean behind a cold front. Cross-equatorial SW swell will continue propagate through the regional waters through Sat, building seas to 9 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Fri morning through Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough is analyzed on the trades region along 134W. This feature is the remnant of former cyclone Sonia. Moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas are occurring from 13N to 20N and west of 132W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1026 mb high pressure system located just north of our waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and seas of 6-9 ft north of 20N and west of 120W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and cross-equatorial swell are producing seas of 8-10 ft south of 13N and between 93W and 125W. Moreover, fresh NE winds and rough seas are reaching the eastern waters, north of 08N and east of 102W, due to the strong gap wind event in Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the waters W of 120W into early next week. The remnant of Sonia will continue moving westward over the next few days as winds and seas gradually diminish. N-NW swell producing rough seas across the NE waters will be reinforced tonight into the weekend. Meanwhile, cross-equatorial SW swell bringing rough seas to the waters S of 13N is expected to persist through Fri before shifting E of 100W. This swell is merging with the NE seas from Tehuantepec that is moving through the eastern waters. Looking ahead, large NW swell will enter the far NW waters early Sat, with seas reaching 11-12 ft Sat afternoon. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC310907_C_KWBC_20251031090808_12124482-6547-TWDEP.txt ****0000005982**** AXPZ20 KNHC 310907 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Oct 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0855 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 12N105W to 07N122W and to 09N135W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N135W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 13N and east of 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has weakened and the pressure gradient across the area has diminished. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured winds peaking at 32 kt, just below gale-force, near 14.5N95.5W at 04Z. Currently, fresh to near gale-force N winds and seas of 8-12 ft cover much of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending as far south as 09N101W. Latest altimeter satellite pass show a peak of 11 ft near 14N95W. Mariners navigating these waters may also encounter gusts to gale-force. The remainder of the Mexican offshore waters is dominated by a subtropical ridge positioned well west of California that extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh N winds in the far offshore waters of Baja California Norte, especially west of Guadalupe Island. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail, including the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will support fresh to strong N winds and rough seas through Sat morning. Then, a cold front will move across the Gulf of America on Sun and a strong ridge will settle across NE Mexico, allowing for strong to gale-force N winds and rough seas Sun through late next week. Elsewhere, high pressure will remain well NW of the area through the midweek to produce moderate or weaker winds across the Baja offshore waters. Long-period NW swell will continue to propagate across the Baja California Norte waters today, building seas to 9 ft. Seas will diminish some Sat, but a new set of large NW swell will move into the area on Sun, building seas off of Baja Norte to 8 to 10 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are impacting the nearshore and offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely near the stronger storms. Building ridge over the NW Caribbean is forcing moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and sustaining moderate seas. Seas will build to rough later this morning. Meanwhile, farther west, moderate N-NE winds and rough seas are evident in the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Looking south, a cross-equatorial SW swell is pushing northward, building seas of 6-9 ft south of 04N and up to 10 ft SW of the Galapagos Islands. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted in these waters. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, rough seas generated by the Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to impact the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador today and diminish this weekend. Fresh to locally strong gap winds and seas building to 8 ft are expected across the Papagayo region through Sat due to high pressure building north of the area. Cross-equatorial SW swell will continue propagate through the regional waters through Sat and will gradually diminish on Sun. Looking ahead, the next strong Tehuantepecer will result in moderate to fresh N winds and rough seas in the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Mon into Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 33N134W continues to dominate the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and seas of 6-9 ft north of 20N and west of 120W. Meanwhile, a surface trough is analyzed on the trades region along 136W, remnant of Sonia. Moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas are occurring from 13N to 20N and west of 125W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and cross- equatorial swell producing seas of 8-10 ft are noted south of the monsoon trough and between 90W and 127W. Fresh NE winds and rough seas are reaching the eastern waters, north of 07N and east of 103W, due to the strong gap wind event in Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the waters W of 120W into early next week. The remnant of Sonia will continue moving westward producing fresh winds and rough seas until reaching the waters west of 140W Sat afternoon. N-NW swell producing rough seas across the NE waters will diminish some Sat. Meanwhile, cross-equatorial SW swell bringing rough seas to the waters S of 16N is expected to persist through tonight before shifting E of 100W. This swell is merging with the NE seas from Tehuantepec that is moving through the eastern waters. Looking ahead, large NW swell will enter the far NW waters early Sat, with seas reaching 11-12 ft Sat afternoon, and spread southeastward through early next week. $$ Delgado ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC311553_C_KWBC_20251031155325_25559334-3137-TWDEP.txt ****0000005729**** AXPZ20 KNHC 311553 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 08N83W to 09N134W. The ITCZ stretches from that point to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm of the monsoon trough and E of 90W, and from 09N to 15N between 100W and 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec has weakened and the pressure gradient across the area has diminished. A recent scatterometer pass depicted near-gale force winds in the Tehuantepec region. Rough seas are also noted in altimeter data in this area. Mariners navigating these waters may also encounter gusts to gale-force. The remainder of the Mexican offshore waters is dominated by a subtropical ridge positioned well west of California that extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh N winds in the far offshore waters of Baja California Norte, especially west of Guadalupe Island. Moderate seas prevail in these waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail, including the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will support strong to near gale N winds and rough seas through Sat morning. Then, a cold front will move across the Gulf of America on Sun and a strong ridge will settle across NE Mexico, allowing for strong to gale-force N winds and rough seas Sun night through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, high pressure will remain well NW of the area through the midweek to produce moderate or weaker winds across the Baja offshore waters. Long-period NW swell will continue to propagate across the Baja California Norte waters today, with rough seas. Seas will diminish some Sat, but a new set of large NW swell will move into the area on Sun, building seas to rough again in the Baja Norte waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are impacting the nearshore and offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely near the stronger storms. Building ridge over the NW Caribbean is forcing moderate to strong easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and sustaining moderate seas. Seas will build to rough later today. Meanwhile, farther west, moderate N-NE winds and rough seas are evident in the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Looking south, a cross-equatorial SW swell is pushing northward, building seas to rough south of 04N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted in these waters. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, rough seas generated by the Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to impact the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador today and diminish this weekend. Fresh to strong gap winds and building rough seas are expected across the Papagayo region through Sat due to high pressure building north of the area. Cross-equatorial SW swell will continue propagate through the regional waters through Sat and will gradually diminish on Sun. The next strong Tehuantepec gap wind event will result in moderate to fresh N winds and rough seas in the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 33N134W continues to dominate the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, supporting moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and rough seas north of 20N and west of 120W. Meanwhile, a surface trough is analyzed on the trades region along 138W, remnant of Sonia. Moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas are occurring from 13N to 20N and west of 125W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and cross-equatorial swell producing rough seas south of the monsoon trough and between 90W and 127W. Fresh NE winds and rough seas are reaching the eastern waters, north of 07N and east of 103W, due to the Tehuantepec gap wind event. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the waters W of 120W into early next week. The remnant of Sonia will continue moving westward producing fresh winds and rough seas until reaching the waters west of 140W Sat afternoon. N-NW swell producing rough seas across the NE waters will diminish some Sat. Meanwhile, cross-equatorial SW swell bringing rough seas to the waters S of 16N is expected to persist through tonight before shifting E of 100W. This swell is merging with the NE seas from Tehuantepec that is moving through the eastern waters. A large NW swell will enter the far NW waters early Sat, with rough to very rough seas Sat afternoon, and spread southeastward through early next week. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC312048_C_KWBC_20251031204928_25559334-3161-TWDEP.txt ****0000005694**** AXPZ20 KNHC 312048 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Oct 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N135W. The ITCZ stretches from that point to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 200 nm of the monsoon trough and E of 94W, and from 09N to 16N between 102W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to weaken and hence, the pressure gradient across the Tehuantepec region. A recent scatterometer pass depicted strong NE winds in the area. Rough seas are noted in latest altimeter data. Mariners navigating these waters may also encounter gusts to gale-force. The remainder of the Mexican offshore waters is dominated by a subtropical ridge positioned well west of California that extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh N winds in the far offshore waters of Baja California Norte, especially west of Guadalupe Island. Moderate seas prevail in these waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail, including the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will support strong NE winds and rough seas through Sat morning. Then, a cold front will move across the Gulf of America on Sun and a strong ridge will settle across NE Mexico, allowing for strong to gale-force N winds and rough seas Sun night through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, high pressure will remain well NW of the area through the midweek to produce moderate or weaker winds across the Baja offshore waters. Long-period NW swell will continue to propagate across the Baja California Norte waters today, with rough seas. Seas will diminish some Sat, but a new set of large NW swell will move into the area on Sun, building seas to rough again in the Baja Norte waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are impacting the nearshore and offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely near the stronger storms. Building ridge over the NW Caribbean is forcing moderate to strong easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region and sustaining moderate seas. Seas will build to rough briefly this evening. Meanwhile, farther west, moderate N-NE winds and rough seas are evident in the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Looking south, a cross-equatorial SW swell is pushing northward, building seas to rough south of 04N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are noted in these waters. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, rough seas generated by the Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue to impact the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador, then diminish this weekend. Fresh to strong gap winds and building rough seas are expected across the Papagayo region through Sat due to high pressure building north of the area. Cross-equatorial SW swell will continue propagate through the regional waters through Sat and will gradually diminish on Sun. The next strong Tehuantepec gap wind event will result in moderate to fresh N winds and rough seas in the far offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high pressure system centered near 32N134W continues to dominate the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, supporting moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas north of 20N and west of 120W. To the E, a NW swell is bringing rough seas to the NE portion of the basin, mainly N of 27N and E of 128W. Meanwhile, a surface trough is analyzed on the trades region along 139W, remnant of Sonia. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and cross- equatorial swell producing rough seas south of the monsoon trough and between 90W and 115W. Fresh NE winds and rough seas are reaching the eastern waters, north of 10N and east of 102W, due to the Tehuantepec gap wind event. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the waters W of 120W into early next week. The remnant of Sonia will continue moving westward producing fresh winds and moderate seas until reaching the waters west of 140W Sat afternoon. N-NW swell producing rough seas across the NE waters will diminish on Sat. Meanwhile, cross-equatorial SW swell bringing rough seas to the waters S of 16N is expected to persist through tonight before shifting E of 100W. This swell is merging with the NE seas from Tehuantepec that is moving through the eastern waters. A large NW swell will enter the far NW waters early Sat, with rough to very rough seas Sat afternoon, and spread southeastward through early next week. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################