--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-06-25 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC250310_C_KWBC_20260625031133_9109880-6805-TWDEP.txt ****0000004148**** AXPZ20 KNHC 250310 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W, south of 16N, moving west around 20 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 09N-13N between 93W-99W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Convection is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section. The axis of a tropical wave is near 119W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Convection is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N95W to 12N115W to 07N135W. The ITCZ extends from 07N135W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 09N-13N between 93W-99W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 06N-15N between 105W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure difference between lower pressure in the deep tropics and higher pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-6 ft in S to SW swell for Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the low pressure over the deep tropics will be inducing fresh to strong N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. Also, expect fresh winds and locally rough seas off Oaxaca and Guerrero Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be quiescent. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are NE fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 7-9 ft, with a long plume of moderate to fresh E winds and 7-8 ft seas reaching as far as 95W. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the NE Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event. Fresh to strong NE to E winds should last into early next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain quiescent. Large S swell moving into the equatorial waters tonight will continue through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure covers the waters north of 15N, anchored by 1032 mb near 37N145W. A weakening 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 18N119W, along a tropical wave. A few showers and thunderstorms are active within 60 nm of the center of the low pressure, along with fresh to strong winds and rough seas. Fresh trade winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted from 10N to 20N elsewhere west of 120W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast aside from the weakening EP94, another low pressure system is likely to form this weekend or early next week over the central portion of the East Pacific basin. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the early to middle part of next week as the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance is near 0 percent through 48 hours, but is high...70 percent...through 7 days. Elsewhere, large seas due to mixed SW and SE swell will be moving across our southern border tonight through the weekend. 8 ft seas should reach up to 02N before diminishing. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC250910_C_KWBC_20260625091151_32440682-3736-TWDEP.txt ****0000004263**** AXPZ20 KNHC 250910 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jun 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, south of 16N, moving west around 20 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 10N-16N between 95W-105W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Convection is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section. The axis of a tropical wave is near 120W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Convection is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 13N115W to 10N125W. The ITCZ extends from 10N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N-07N between 75W-105W, and from 08N-18N between 110-120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure difference between lower pressure in the deep tropics and higher pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-6 ft in S to SW swell for Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the low pressure over the deep tropics will be inducing fresh to strong N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. Also, expect fresh winds and locally rough seas off Oaxaca and Guerrero Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be quiescent. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed NE to E gap winds across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region as far west as 95W. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass showed 7-8 ft seas. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the NE Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event. Fresh to strong NE to E winds should last into early next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain quiescent. Large S swell moving into the equatorial waters tonight will continue through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure covers the waters north of 15N, anchored by 1032 mb near 37N145W. A weakening 1008 mb low pressure (EP94) is centered near 18N120W, along a tropical wave. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong NE winds within 90 nm in the northwest quadrant of this low. Fresh trade winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted from 10N to 20N elsewhere west of 120W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the low known as EP94 near 18N120W will weaken to trough through today, but continue to support fresh to strong winds and occasional rough seas as it moves westward through Sun. Elsewhere, another low pressure system is likely to form this weekend or early next week south of the Revillagigedo Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the early to middle part of next week as the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance is near 0 percent through 48 hours, but is high...70 percent...through 7 days. Elsewhere, large seas due to mixed SW and SE swell will be moving across our southern border tonight through the weekend. 8 ft seas should reach up to 02N before diminishing. $$ Christensen ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC251525_C_KWBC_20260625152554_32440682-3757-TWDEP.txt ****0000003722**** AXPZ20 KNHC 251525 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jun 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, south of 16N, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N-14N between 99W-103W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 106W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N-19N between 104W-108W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 120W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring with this system this morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica at 10N84W to 08N92W to 13N113W to 10N124W. The ITCZ extends from 10N124W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N-19N between 104W-108W and from 03N-07N between 93W-97W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 09N-14N between 99W-103W and from 04N-09N between 78W-87W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Tehauntepec gap wind event is producing fresh to strong N to NE winds with seas 7-9 ft this morning. A surface ridge extends from 27N120W southeastward to 20N108W. Winds elsewhere across the offshore waters are moderate or weaker. Seas on the Pacific waters are 5-6 ft in S to SW swell and are 2-4 ft over the Gulf of California waters. For the forecast, low pressure over the deep tropics will continue inducing fresh to strong N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tomorrow. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican offshore waters should be quiescent through early next week. Looking ahead, large NW swell may move into the waters off Baja California Norte starting Sun night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A gap wind event is forcing fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region this morning with seas 7-9 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 7-9 ft in S swell over the equatorial waters and 5-6 ft in SW swell over the remainder of the offshore waters. For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure north of the area and the monsoon trough farther south is supporting a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event. Fresh to strong NE to E winds should last through early next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain quiescent. Large S swell moving into the equatorial waters tonight will continue through Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low is centered near 18N121W. Winds within 120 NM in the N semicircle are fresh to strong with seas 6-7 ft. A surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high at 37N149W southeastward to 30N130W to 27N120W to 20N108W. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the monsoon trough/ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades between 10N and the ridge. Elsewhere, winds across the open Pacific are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-8 ft in mixed SW and N swell. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC251955_C_KWBC_20260625195540_9109880-6857-TWDEP.txt ****0000004260**** AXPZ20 KNHC 251955 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jun 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 107W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N-18N between 98W-108W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 122W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring with this system this morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica at 09N84W to 07N97W to 11N119W to 09N124W. The ITCZ extends from 10N124W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N-18N between 98W-108W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also noted from 03N-06N between 103W-109W, from 02N-07N between 91W-96W, and north of 03N between 81W-87W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Tehuantepec gap wind event is producing fresh to strong N to NE winds with seas 7-8 ft this afternoon. A surface ridge extends from 27N120W southeastward to 20N110W. Winds elsewhere across the offshore waters are moderate or weaker. Seas on the Pacific waters are 5-6 ft in S to SW swell and are 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California waters. For the forecast, low pressure over the deep tropics will continue inducing fresh to strong N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tomorrow night. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican offshore waters should be quiescent through early next week. Looking ahead, large NW swell may move into the waters off Baja California Norte starting Sun night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A gap wind event is forcing fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region this afternoon with seas 7-9 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 7-9 ft in S swell over the equatorial waters and 5-6 ft in SW swell over the remainder of the offshore waters. For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure north of the area and the monsoon trough farther south is supporting a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event. Fresh to strong NE to E winds should last through early next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain quiescent. Large S swell moving into the equatorial waters will continue through Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low is centered near 18N122W. Winds within 180 NM in the N semicircle are fresh to strong with seas 6-8 ft. A surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high at 37N154W southeastward to 30N128W to 27N120W to 20N110W. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the monsoon trough/ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades between 10N and the ridge. Elsewhere, winds across the open Pacific are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-8 ft in mixed SW and N swell. For the forecast, the low is no longer a candidate for tropical development and should open up into a trough tomorrow. The tropical wave near 107W is forecast to encounter more favorable conditions for development over the weekend across the central portion of the East Pacific basin. A tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next week while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the west-central eastern Pacific. Outside of this system, little change in winds are expected for the next several days. A large SE swell should reach our southern border tonight and reach up to 01N with at least 8 ft seas for the next several days. $$ Landsea ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################