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         TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES       

T1T2: AX
A1A2: PZ

Date: 2026-02-26

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Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC260332_C_KWBC_20260226033312_29294990-8654-TWDEP.txt

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AXPZ20 KNHC 260332

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Thu Feb 26 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0300 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



A surface trough is analyzed from 05S81W to 02S97W to 04S109W.

Two surface lows, both analyzed at 1007 mb, are along the trough

with one low at 04S85W and the other at 02S97W. The ITCZ is 

south of the Equator and runs from 04S109W to beyond 02S140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 10S to 03S and E 

of 85W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California

supporting gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate seas, except

for near Punta Eugenia where NW winds are moderate to fresh. 

Light to gentle winds are elsewhere, including the Gulf of 

California. Moderate seas prevail over the remainder of the 

Mexican offshore waters, with slight seas in the Gulf of 

California.



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast

waters offshore of Baja California through the remainder of the 

week, producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate 

seas. Locally fresh winds are expected N of Punta Eugenia tonight

and Thu. Similar wind conditions are expected offshore of Cabo 

San Lazaro Sun night through Mon night as the pressure gradient 

tightens across the area between a stronger high pressure to the 

W and lower pressures over northern Mexico. In the Gulf of 

California, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas will

prevail. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are forecast

elsewhere through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong 

northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon and 

Mon night.



....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Fresh to strong NE winds continue extending downwind from the 

Gulf of Papagayo to near 10N90W with seas of 8 to 10 ft. In 

addition, earlier scatterometer data also indicated moderate to 

locally fresh N winds across the Gulf of Panama, and fresh to 

locally strong NE winds downstream of the Azuero Peninsula to 

about 02N88W where seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range. Elsewhere, 

winds are moderate or weaker with slight to moderate seas.



For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in 

the Papagayo area tonight through Fri night, then again Mon 

night as high pressure strengthens N of area. Fresh to locally 

strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail downwind

of the Gulf of Panama and just S of the Azuero Peninsula through

tonight. Seas generated in the gap wind regions of Tehuantepec 

and Papagayo will continue to propagate across the waters S of 

10N between 90W and 115W tonight while gradually subsiding. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...



A cold front is over the NW corner of the forecast region. Fresh

to strong winds and rough seas in NW to N swell are noted on 

either side of the front N of 25N. A 1020 mb high is centered 

near 32N125W. The associated ridge covers the forecast waters N 

of 15N W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. An area of

fresh to strong E to SE winds is observed on scatterometer data 

in the SW part of the ridge, particularly from 07N to 17N W of 

135W where seas are 8 to 10 ft based on altimeter data. Seas 

generated in the gap wind regions of Tehuantepec and Papagayo 

continue to affect the waters S of 10N between 90W and 115W. A 

set of NW swell is propagating across the NW waters, mainly W of

130W and N of 20N, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. Rough seas

are also noted from 05N to 10N and W of 130W. Elsewhere, seas of

5 to 8 ft prevail.



For the forecast, the low pressure will lift northward while the

associated cold front will continue to move slowly across the NW

waters, reaching from 30N135W to 20N140W by Thu evening, then 

becoming stationary over the same area by Fri afternoon. As the 

low pressure moves away from the forecast region, the fresh to 

strong winds associated with the front will diminish over the 

forecast waters. The NW swell impacting the west-central and NW 

waters will also gradually subside over the next 24 to 48 hours.



$$

Adams


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