--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2026-10-20 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC200328_C_KWBC_20261020032918_38011292-6017-TWDEP.txt ****0000006085**** AXPZ20 KNHC 200328 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Oct 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Post-Tropical Cyclone Trudy is centered near 19.5N 108.0W at 20/0300 UTC, moving north at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 9 ft. The system is drifting northward, but is expected to move slowly to the west-northwest over the next day or so until dissipation. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the last NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient in the area continues to force gale-force northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in these waters are rough to very rough. These conditions will continue into Tue night. Winds will diminish to strong Wed, but are likely to increase to gales again Thu night and Fri. South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP94): Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south- southwest of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 kt, remaining well offshore of Central America and southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours and over the next 7 days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to a 1009 mb low near 10.5N94W to 04N107W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N107W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 15N E of 104W and from 01N to 08N and W of 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Trudy and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere outside from Trudy and the T'pec gale area, a weak pressure gradient is leading to mainly gentle NW winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Trudy will become a remnant low and move to 19.3N 108.6W Tue morning, 19.4N 109.2W Tue evening, 19.6N 109.9W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. High pressure settled over Mexico will continue to funnel northerly gap winds of gale-force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Tue night, along with rough to very rough seas. Winds will diminish to strong Wed, but are forecast to increase to gale-force again Thu night through Fri. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south- southwest of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 kt, remaining well offshore of Central America and southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours and over the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Rough seas coming from gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to impact waters well offshore Guatemala. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, rough seas deriving from gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue well offshore Guatemala into Wed. Winds will pulse nightly to fresh in the Papagayo region, with locally strong pulses possible late this week. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are impacting waters N of the ITCZ and W of 128W. Fresh to strong winds originating from a gale-force gap wind episode in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are impacting waters as far south as 06N between 94W and 100W, along with rough seas. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned gap winds with continue to bring periods of fresh to strong N winds and rough seas to waters N of 05N between 92W and 103W into mid-week. A cold front will move S of 30N tonight, bringing fresh to strong winds and very rough seas to waters N of 26N through Wed, with rough seas reaching as far south as 20N Thu. Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to show signs of organization in association with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south- southwest of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next day or so as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 kt, remaining well offshore of Central America and southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours and over the next 7 days. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC200849_C_KWBC_20261020085020_38011292-6039-TWDEP.txt ****0000005205**** AXPZ20 KNHC 200849 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure settled over Mexico will continue to funnel northerly gap winds of gale-force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec into tonight. Seas in these waters are rough. Winds will diminish to strong Wed, but are likely to increase to gales again Thu night and Fri. South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP94): Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is becoming better defined. The associated showers and thunderstorms are also beginning to show signs of organization, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours and over the next 7 days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to a 1007 mb low near 10N95W to 04N107W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N107W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 15N E of 103W and S of 08N and W of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere outside from the T'pec gale area, a weak pressure gradient is leading to mainly gentle NW winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, high pressure settled over Mexico will continue to funnel northerly gap winds of gale-force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec into tonight, along with rough to very rough seas. Winds will diminish to strong Wed, but are forecast to increase to gale-force again Thu night through Fri. Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is becoming better defined. The associated showers and thunderstorms are also beginning to show signs of organization, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours and over the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Rough seas coming from gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to impact waters well offshore Guatemala. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, rough seas deriving from gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue well offshore Guatemala into Wed. Winds will pulse nightly to fresh in the Papagayo region, with locally strong pulses possible late this week. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh to strong winds originating from a gale-force gap wind episode in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are impacting waters as far south as 06N between 94W and 101W, along with rough seas. To the north, a cold front extends along 30N and W of 135W. Fresh winds prevail in the vicinity of the front. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned gap winds with continue to bring periods of fresh to strong N winds and rough seas to waters N of 05N between 92W and 103W into mid-week. As the cold front moves S of 30N today, fresh to strong winds and very seas to waters N of 26N through Wed, with rough seas reaching as far south as 20N Thu. Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a low pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is becoming better defined. The associated showers and thunderstorms are also beginning to show signs of organization, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours and over the next 7 days. $$ ERA ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC201547_C_KWBC_20261020154808_21889468-5890-TWDEP.txt ****0000004975**** AXPZ20 KNHC 201547 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure settled over Mexico will continue to funnel northerly gap winds of gale-force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. Seas in these waters are rough. Winds will diminish to strong Wed, but will increase to gales again Thu night though Fri. South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP94): A low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to a 1007 mb low near 10N95W to 04N107W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N107W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 15N E of 103W and S of 08N and W of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and on a low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec that has a potential for tropical development. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is leading to mainly gentle NW winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, high pressure settled over Mexico will continue to funnel northerly gap winds of gale-force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. Seas in these waters are rough. Winds will diminish to strong Wed, but will increase to gales again Thu night though Fri. A low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Rough seas coming from gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to impact waters well offshore Guatemala. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, rough seas deriving from gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue well offshore Guatemala through tonight. Winds will pulse nightly to fresh in the Papagayo region, with strong pulses possible late this week. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Fresh to locally strong originating from a gale-force gap wind episode in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are impacting waters as far south as 06N between 94W and 101W, along with rough seas. To the north, a cold front extends along 30N and W of 135W. Fresh winds prevail in the vicinity of the front. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned gap winds with continue to bring periods of fresh to strong N winds and rough seas to waters N of 05N between 92W and 103W into mid-week. As the cold front moves S of 30N today, fresh to strong winds and very seas to waters N of 26N through Wed, with rough seas reaching as far south as 20N Thu. A low-pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC202105_C_KWBC_20261020210624_38011292-6083-TWDEP.txt ****0000005298**** AXPZ20 KNHC 202105 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure settled over Mexico will continue to funnel northerly gap winds of gale-force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tonight. Seas in these waters are rough. Winds will diminish to strong Wed, but will increase to gales again Thu night into Fri night. Gale Warning South of Southern Mexico (Invest EP94): A low- pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. A large area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas surround this low center, and these winds and seas are expected to increase over the next day or so. A Gale Warning has been issued as a result, for Wed into Thu. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 04N106W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N106W to 09N112W and from 06N130W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 15N E of 105W and from 01N to 08N and W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, weak low pressure centered E of the Revillagigedo Islands is leading to moderate NW winds through the islands. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure settled over Mexico will continue to funnel northerly gap winds of gale-force into the Gulf of Tehuantepec into tonight. Seas in these waters are rough. Winds will diminish to strong by Wed, but will increase to gales again Thu night through Fri night. A low- pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Rough seas coming from gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec continue to impact waters well offshore Guatemala. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, rough seas well offshore Guatemala deriving from gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will decay tonight. Winds will pulse nightly to fresh in the Papagayo region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on a Gale Warning issued in association with a low pressure system that has a potential for tropical development. Elsewhere, fresh NW winds and rough seas are increasing behind a cold front that extends from 30N138W to 38N136W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, as the cold front moves SE tonight, fresh to strong winds and very rough seas will impact waters N of 26N through Wed, with rough seas reaching as far south as 20N Thu. A low- pressure system located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is forecast to form during the next day or so. This system is expected to move westward to west- northwestward at 5 to 10 kt during the next few days, remaining well offshore of southern Mexico. A large area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas surround this low center, and these winds and seas are expected to increase over the next day or so. A Gale Warning has been issued as a result, for Wed into Thu. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low within the next 48 hours. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################