--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (EASTERN PACIFIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: PZ Date: 2025-12-31 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC310407_C_KWBC_20251231040749_29294990-4035-TWDEP.txt ****0000005074**** AXPZ20 KNHC 310407 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Dec 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm-force northerly winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed morning, supporting very rough seas as high as 18 ft. However, large seas in excess of 8 ft will reach as far west as 105W by tonight. Afterward, gales will prevail through Wed night. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Thu and Thu night. Marine interests transiting across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed should take the necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N93W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N93W to 07N107W to 13N120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from 09N to 21N between 108W and 114W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please refer to the Special Features section for details. Fresh NW to N winds are ongoing across the Gulf of California due to the presence of a strong 1042 mb high pressure over the Great Basin. Seas are 3 to 6 ft within these wind speeds. Low pressure to the WNW of the Revillagigedo Islands is causing fresh to locally strong SE winds across the offshore waters of Baja California along with scattered moderate convection. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are present along with slight to moderate seas mainly NW swell. For the forecast, storm-force northerly winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed morning, supporting very rough seas as high as 18 ft. Afterward, gales will prevail through Wed night. Winds and seas will gradually diminish Thu and Thu night. Elsewhere, high pressure over the Great Basin will weaken and move east, thus diminishing fresh NW winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of California by Wed morning. Fresh to locally strong SE winds across the Baja California offshore waters will lift N of Punta Eugenia late on Wed as a low pressure W of the Baja offshores moves northward. Showers and thunderstorms across the Baja offshores will also continue through late Wed. Otherwise, long period NW swell may bring rough seas to waters offshore Baja California Norte over the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure building N of the region is supporting fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 89W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are within these winds. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail, except for moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo with moderate to rough seas into Fri night. Winds will pulse nightly to moderate to locally fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Fri. Rough seas generated by storm-force winds in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Wed night. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1007 mb surface low is centered near 20N126W. One surface trough extends NE from the low, while another arches eastward then SW to 06N136W. E of the low, a broad region of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection extends from 13N to 27N between 110W and 123W. Fresh winds and moderate to rough dominate the waters N of 16N and W of 118W in association with this complex low. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in NW swell are evident. For the forecast, as the low pressure moves northward and weakens over the next 24 to 36 hours, winds and seas will diminish. A cold front is forecast to reach the far NW Wed night and move eastward across the waters north of 25N into Thu. A reinforcing front will follow later on Thu and with the main front by Thu evening from 30N134W to 24N140W. Fresh to strong winds are expected on both sides of the front. Significant NW swell will follow the front, bringing rough to very roughly seas. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC310948_C_KWBC_20251231094935_16515500-3646-TWDEP.txt ****0000005083**** AXPZ20 KNHC 310948 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Dec 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm-force northerly winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning, supporting very rough seas as high as 16 ft. However, large seas in excess of 8 ft will reach as far west as 102W this morning. Afterward, gales will prevail through early Thu morning. Then, northerly gap winds will gradually diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by Fri morning. Marine interests transiting across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed should take the necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N85W to 05N95W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N95W to 13N122W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from 08N to 24N between 108W and 112W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please refer to the Special Features section for details. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds are ongoing across the Gulf of California due to the presence of a strong 1041 mb high pressure over the Great Basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft within these wind speeds. Low pressure to the WNW of the Revillagigedo Islands is causing fresh to locally strong SE winds across the offshore waters of Baja California along with scattered moderate convection. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are present along with slight to moderate seas mainly NW swell. For the forecast, storm-force northerly winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning, supporting very rough seas as high as 16 ft. Afterward, gales will prevail through early Thu morning. Then, northerly gap winds will gradually diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by Fri morning. Fresh to locally strong NW winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of California will diminish to moderate or weaker winds this morning. Fresh to strong SE winds across the Baja California offshore waters will lift N of Punta Eugenia this afternoon as a low pressure W of the offshores moves northward. Showers and thunderstorms across the Baja offshores will also dissipate today. Otherwise, long period NW swell may bring rough seas to waters offshore Baja California Norte Sun through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure building N of the region is supporting fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 89W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are within these winds. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail, except for moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo with moderate to rough seas into Fri night. Winds will pulse nightly to moderate to locally fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Fri. Rough seas generated by storm-force winds in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb surface low is centered near 21N126W. A surface trough extends NE from the low to southern California, while another arches SW to 16N131W. East of the low, a broad region of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection extends from 08N to 30N between 106W and 120W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas, except N of 15N and W of 131W where seas are rough to 9 ft due to large mixed swell. For the forecast, as the low pressure moves northward and weakens today, winds and seas will diminish. A cold front is forecast to reach the far NW tonight and move eastward across the waters north of 25N into Thu. A reinforcing front will follow later on Thu and with the main front by Thu evening from 30N134W to 24N140W. Fresh to strong winds are expected on both sides of the front. Significant NW swell will follow the front, bringing rough to very roughly seas. $$ Ramos ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC311540_C_KWBC_20251231154136_16515500-3670-TWDEP.txt ****0000004456**** AXPZ20 KNHC 311540 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Dec 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Winds have diminished slightly this morning, below storm-force, but powerful gales will prevail through early Thu morning, along with very rough seas of up to 16 ft. Then, northerly gap winds will gradually diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by Fri morning. Marine interests transiting across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed should take the necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N85W to 05N95W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N95W to 13N122W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 08N to 24N between 108W and 112W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please refer to the Special Features section for details. Fresh NW to N winds are ongoing across the Gulf of California due to the presence of a strong 1041 mb high pressure over the Great Basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft within these wind speeds. Low pressure well W of Baja California is causing fresh SE winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are present along with slight to moderate seas mainly NW swell. For the forecast, fresh NW winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of California will diminish to moderate or weaker winds this morning. Fresh SE winds across the Baja California offshore waters will lift N of Punta Eugenia this afternoon as a low pressure W of the offshores moves northward. Otherwise, long period NW swell may bring rough seas to waters offshore Baja California Norte Sun through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure building N of the region is supporting strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 89W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are within these winds. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail, except for moderate to locally fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo with moderate to rough seas into Fri night. Winds will pulse nightly to moderate to locally fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Fri. Rough seas generated by storm-force winds in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through tonight. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb surface low is centered near 21N126W. A surface trough extends NE from the low to southern California, while another arches SW to 16N131W. East of the low, a broad region of numerous moderate to isolated strong convection extends from 08N to 30N between 106W and 120W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas, except N of 15N and W of 131W where seas are rough to 9 ft due to large mixed swell. For the forecast, as the low pressure moves northward and weakens today, winds and seas will diminish. A cold front is forecast to reach the far NW tonight and move eastward across the waters north of 25N into Thu. A reinforcing front will follow later on Thu and with the main front by Thu evening from 30N134W to 24N140W. Fresh to strong winds are expected on both sides of the front. Significant NW swell will follow the front, bringing rough to very roughly seas. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXPZ20KNHC312021_C_KWBC_20251231202255_29294990-4095-TWDEP.txt ****0000004969**** AXPZ20 KNHC 312021 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Dec 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale-force winds of 35 to 40 kt and seas of 12 to 14 ft will prevail into Thu morning as high pressure settles into eastern Mexico and force gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. As the high weakens and slides east Thu into Fri, winds will gradually diminish. Marine interests transiting across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed should take the necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 05N94W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N94W to 13N122W to beyond 06N140W. Convection N of the ITCZ roughly along 110W is primarily associated with middle-level features and is described in sections below. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please refer to the Special Features section for details. A mid-level trough and deep tropical moisture is inducing scattered moderate to isolated convection over the outer offshore waters from Guerrero northward to Nayarit, mainly W of 107W. Low pressure offshore California is drawing in fresh SE winds that are impacting waters offshore Baja California Norte. Fresh NW winds have also developed offshore Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, and seas are moderate. In the Gulf of California, moderate N winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, Fresh SE winds across the Baja California offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia will diminish tonight as a low pressure N of the offshores moves northward, further way from the region. Otherwise, long period NW swell may bring rough seas to waters offshore Baja California Sat night through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure building N of the region is supporting strong northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are within these winds. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail, except for moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to support strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo with moderate to rough seas into Fri. Winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama tonight and Thu night. Rough seas generated by gales in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight. Mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere into the start of next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1009 mb low pressure is centered near 22N125W, with a surface trough bisecting the low from 16N131W to 30N120W, then continuing north of the region. Another surface trough has formed N of the ITCZ roughly along 112W, extending northward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted E of this trough, across a broad region from 09N to 24N between 107W and 112W. The impacts of gap winds are leading to fresh NE to E winds across a zone from 07N and 11N E of 107W. Fresh E to SE winds are also ongoing S of the ITCZ between 120W and 135W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Rough seas are ongoing where the fresh gap-associated winds are, and decaying northerly swell is causing 6 to 8 ft seas from 15N to 25N, W of 135W. Elsewhere, generally moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, as the low pressure moves northward and weakens tonight, convection will subside. Gap winds will also diminish allowing winds and seas to lessen into Thu. A cold front is forecast to reach the far NW tonight and move eastward across the waters north of 20N through Thu. The cold front will reach from 30N133W to 24N139W by Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are expected on both sides of the front through Fri. Significant NW swell will follow the front, bringing rough to very roughly seas. By the end of the weekend, seas 8 ft or great should encompass waters N of 10N and W of 120W. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################